Search results for: passivity analysis

Authors: Boo-Sung Koh, Seung-Eock Kim

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In this paper, a direct design using a nonlinear inelastic analysis is suggested. Also, this paper compares the load carrying capacity obtained by a nonlinear inelastic analysis with experiment results to verify the accuracy of the results. The allowable stress design results of a railroad through a plate girder bridge and the safety factor of the nonlinear inelastic analysis were compared to examine the safety performance. As a result, the load safety factor for the nonlinear inelastic analysis was twice as high as the required safety factor under the allowable stress design standard specified in the civil engineering structure design standards for urban magnetic levitation railways, which further verified the advantages of the proposed direct design method.

Keywords: direct design, nonlinear inelastic analysis, residual stress, initial geometric imperfection

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Authors: Maria Fernanda Ordoñez Martinez, Alvaro Mauricio Montenegro

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This work presents a statistical methodology for measuring and founding constructs in Latent Semantic Analysis. This approach uses the qualities of Factor Analysis in binary data with interpretations present on Item Response Theory. More precisely, we propose initially reducing dimensionality with specific use of Principal Component Analysis for the linguistic data and then, producing axes of groups made from a clustering analysis of the semantic data. This approach allows the user to give meaning to previous clusters and found the real latent structure presented by data. The methodology is applied in a set of real semantic data presenting impressive results for the coherence, speed and precision.

Keywords: semantic analysis, factorial analysis, dimension reduction, penalized logistic regression

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Authors: Maryam Ebrahimpour, Amir Ebrahimi

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This paper presents the steady-state amplitude analysis of MOS Colpitts oscillator with short channel device. The proposed method is based on a large signal analysis and the nonlinear differential equations that govern the oscillator circuit behaviour. Also, the short channel effects are considered in the proposed analysis and analytical equations for finding the steady-state oscillation amplitude are derived. The output voltage calculated from this analysis is in excellent agreement with simulations for a wide range of circuit parameters.

Keywords: colpitts oscillator, CMOS, electronics, circuits

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Authors: C. J. W. Habets, D. J. Peters, J. G. de Gijt, A. V. Metrikine, S. N. Jonkman

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Conventional seismic designs of quay walls in ports are mostly based on pseudo-static analysis. A more advanced alternative is the Performance-Based Design (PBD) method, which evaluates permanent deformations and amounts of (repairable) damage under seismic loading. The aim of this study is to investigate the suitability of this method for anchored sheet pile quay walls that were not purposely designed for seismic loads. A research methodology is developed in which pseudo-static, permanent-displacement and finite element analysis are employed, calibrated with an experimental reference case that considers a typical anchored sheet pile wall. A reduction factor that accounts for deformation behaviour is determined for pseudo-static analysis. A model to apply traditional permanent displacement analysis on anchored sheet pile walls is proposed. Dynamic analysis is successfully carried out. From the research it is concluded that PBD evaluation can effectively be used for seismic analysis and design of this type of structure.

Keywords: anchored sheet pile quay wall, simplified dynamic analysis, performance-based design, pseudo-static analysis

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Authors: Guang Yang, Zhiwei Bai, Bo Sun

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This paper analyzes the influence of failure mode and harmfulness of rotative machine according to FMECA (Failure Mode, Effects, and Criticality Analysis) method, and finds out the weak links that affect the reliability of this equipment. Also in this paper, fault tree analysis software is used for quantitative and qualitative analysis, pointing out the main factors of failure of this equipment. Based on the experimental results, this paper puts forward corresponding measures for prevention and improvement, and fundamentally improves the inherent reliability of this rotative machine, providing the basis for the formulation of technical conditions for the safe operation of industrial applications.

Keywords: rotative machine, reliability test, fault tree analysis, FMECA

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Authors: H. Abaal, R. Skouri

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A power flow analysis is a steady-state study of power grid. The goal of power flow analysis is to determine the voltages, currents, and real and reactive power flows in a system under a given load conditions. In this paper, the load flow analysis program by Newton Raphson polar coordinates Method is developed. The effectiveness of the developed program is evaluated through a simple 5-IEEE test system bus by simulations using MATLAB.

Keywords: power flow analysis, Newton Raphson polar coordinates method

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Authors: Piush Verma, Y. R. Sood

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This paper provides the information on the diagnostics techniques for condition monitoring of power transformer (PT). This paper deals with the practical importance of the transformer diagnostic in the Electrical Engineering field. The life of the transformer depends upon its insulation i.e paper and oil. The major testing techniques applies on transformer oil and paper i.e dissolved gas analysis, furfural analysis, radio interface, acoustic emission, infra-red emission, frequency response analysis, power factor, polarization spectrum, magnetizing currents, turn and winding ratio. A review has been made on the modern development of this practical technology.

Keywords: temperature, condition monitoring, diagnostics methods, paper analysis techniques, oil analysis techniques

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Authors: Naghmeh M. Bandari, Javad Dargahi, Muthukumaran Packirisamy

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Robot-assisted minimally invasive surgery (RMIS) has been widely performed around the world during the last two decades. RMIS demonstrates significant advantages over conventional surgery, e.g., improving the accuracy and dexterity of a surgeon, providing 3D vision, motion scaling, hand-eye coordination, decreasing tremor, and reducing x-ray exposure for surgeons. Despite benefits, surgeons cannot touch the surgical site and perceive tactile information. This happens due to the remote control of robots. The literature survey identified the lack of force feedback as the riskiest limitation in the existing technology. Without the perception of tool-tissue contact force, the surgeon might apply an excessive force causing tissue laceration or insufficient force causing tissue slippage. The primary use of force sensors has been to measure the tool-tissue interaction force in real-time in-situ. Design of a tactile sensor is subjected to a set of design requirements, e.g., biocompatibility, electrical-passivity, MRI-compatibility, miniaturization, ability to measure static and dynamic force. In this study, a planar optical fiber-based sensor was proposed to mount at the surgical grasper. It was developed based on the light intensity modulation principle. The deflectable part of the sensor was a beam modeled as a cantilever Euler-Bernoulli beam on rigid substrates. A semi-cylindrical indenter was attached to the bottom surface the beam at the mid-span. An optical fiber was secured at both ends on the same rigid substrates. The indenter was in contact with the fiber. External force on the sensor caused deflection in the beam and optical fiber simultaneously. The micro-bending of the optical fiber would consequently result in light power loss. The sensor was simulated and studied using finite element methods. A laser light beam with 800nm wavelength and 5mW power was used as the input to the optical fiber. The output power was measured using a photodetector. The voltage from photodetector was calibrated to the external force for a chirp input (0.1-5Hz). The range, resolution, and hysteresis of the sensor were studied under monotonic and harmonic external forces of 0-2.0N with 0 and 5Hz, respectively. The results confirmed the validity of proposed sensing principle. Also, the sensor demonstrated an acceptable linearity (R2 > 0.9). A minimum external force was observed below which no power loss was detectable. It is postulated that this phenomenon is attributed to the critical angle of the optical fiber to observe total internal reflection. The experimental results were of negligible hysteresis (R2 > 0.9) and in fair agreement with the simulations. In conclusion, the suggested planar sensor is assessed to be a cost-effective solution, feasible, and easy to use the sensor for being miniaturized and integrated at the tip of robotic graspers. Geometrical and optical factors affecting the minimum sensible force and the working range of the sensor should be studied and optimized. This design is intrinsically scalable and meets all the design requirements. Therefore, it has a significant potential of industrialization and mass production.

Keywords: force sensor, minimally invasive surgery, optical sensor, robotic surgery, tactile sensor

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Authors: Young-Hun Lee, Tae-Gwan Kim, Jong-Kyu Kim, Young-Chul Park

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In this study, Spring safety valve Heat - structure coupled analysis was carried out. Full analysis procedure and performing thermal analysis at a maximum temperature, them to the results obtained through to give an additional load and the pressure on the valve interior, and Disc holder Heat-Coupled structure Analysis was carried out. Modeled using a 3D design program Solidworks, For the modeling of the safety valve was used 3D finite element analysis program ANSYS. The final result to be obtained through the Analysis examined the stability of the maximum displacement and the maximum stress to the valve internal components occurring in the high-pressure conditions.

Keywords: finite element method, spring safety valve, gap, stress, strain, deformation

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Authors: R. B. Patil, B. S. Kothavale, L. Y. Waghmode

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Today, the CNC turning center becomes an important machine tool for manufacturing industry worldwide. However, as the breakdown of a single CNC turning center may result in the production of an entire plant being halted. For this reason, operations and preventive maintenance have to be minimized to ensure availability of the system. Indeed, improving the availability of the CNC turning center as a whole, objectively leads to a substantial reduction in production loss, operating, maintenance and support cost. In this paper, fault tree analysis (FTA) method is used for reliability analysis of CNC turning center. The major faults associated with the system and the causes for the faults are presented graphically. Boolean algebra is used for evaluating fault tree (FT) diagram and for deriving governing reliability model for CNC turning center. Failure data over a period of six years has been collected and used for evaluating the model. Qualitative and quantitative analysis is also carried out to identify critical sub-systems and components of CNC turning center. It is found that, at the end of the warranty period (one year), the reliability of the CNC turning center as a whole is around 0.61628.

Keywords: fault tree analysis (FTA), reliability analysis, risk assessment, hazard analysis

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Authors: Sara Muhammad Elqudah, Vigh László Gergely

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Catastrophic events, such as earthquakes, are sudden, short, and devastating, threatening lives, demolishing futures, and causing huge economic losses. Current seismic analyses and design standards are based on life safety levels where only some residual strength and stiffness are left in the structure leaving it beyond economical repair. Consequently, it has become necessary to introduce and implement the concept of resilient design. Resilient design is about designing for ductility over time by resisting, absorbing, and recovering from the effects of a hazard in an appropriate and efficient time manner while maintaining the functionality of the structure in the aftermath of the incident. Resilient analysis is mainly based on the fragility, vulnerability, and functionality curves where eventually a resilience index is generated from these curves, and the higher this index is, the better is the performance of the structure. In this paper, seismic performances of a simple two story reinforced concrete building, located in a moderate seismic region, has been evaluated using the conventional seismic analyses methods, which are the linear static analysis, the response spectrum analysis, and the pushover analysis, and the generated results of these analyses methods are compared to those of the resilient analysis. Results highlight that the resilience analysis was the most convenient method in generating a more ductile and functional structure from a socio-economic perspective, in comparison to the standard seismic analysis methods.

Keywords: conventional analysis methods, functionality, resilient analysis, seismic performance

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Authors: F. J. Ma, A. K. H. Kwan

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Crack caused by shrinkage movement of concrete is a serious problem especially when restraint is provided. It may cause severe serviceability and durability problems. The existing prediction methods for crack width of concrete due to shrinkage movement are mainly numerical methods under simplified circumstances, which do not agree with each other. To get a more unified prediction method applicable to more sophisticated circumstances, finite element crack width analysis for shrinkage effect should be developed. However, no existing finite element analysis can be carried out to predict the crack width of concrete due to shrinkage movement because of unsolved reasons of conventional finite element analysis. In this paper, crack width analysis implemented by finite element analysis is presented with pseudo-discrete crack model, which combines traditional smeared crack model and newly proposed crack queuing algorithm. The proposed pseudo-discrete crack model is capable of simulating separate and single crack without adopting discrete crack element. And the improved finite element analysis can successfully simulate the stress redistribution when concrete is cracked, which is crucial for predicting crack width, crack spacing and crack number.

Keywords: crack queuing algorithm, crack width analysis, finite element analysis, shrinkage effect

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Authors: Mohamed Abdelwahed

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We propose an optimization algorithm for the geometric control of fluid flow. The used approach is based on the topological sensitivity analysis method. It consists in studying the variation of a cost function with respect to the insertion of a small obstacle in the domain. Some theoretical and numerical results are presented in 2D and 3D.

Keywords: sensitivity analysis, topological gradient, shape optimization, stokes equations

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Authors: Afnan Ahmad, Shahid Ali, Mujahid Khan

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This research presents the parametric study of an existing earth fill dam located at Latamber, Karak city, Pakistan. The study consists of carrying out seepage analysis, slope stability analysis, and Earthquake analysis of the dam for the existing dam geometry and do the same for modified geometry. Dams are massive as well as expensive hydraulic structure, therefore it needs proper attention. Additionally, this dam falls under zone 2B region of Pakistan, which is an earthquake-prone area and where ground accelerations range from 0.16g to 0.24g peak. So it should be deal with great care, as the failure of any dam can cause irreparable losses. Similarly, seepage as well as slope failure can also cause damages which can lead to failure of the dam. Therefore, keeping in view of the importance of dam construction and associated costs, our main focus is to carry out parametric study of newly constructed dam. GeoStudio software is used for this analysis in the study in which Seep/W is used for seepage analysis, Slope/w is used for Slope stability analysis and Quake/w is used for earthquake analysis. Based on the geometrical, hydrological and geotechnical data, Seepage and slope stability analysis of different proposed geometries of the dam are carried out along with the Seismic analysis. A rigorous analysis was carried out in 2-D limit equilibrium using finite element analysis. The seismic study began with the static analysis, continuing by the dynamic response analysis. The seismic analyses permitted evaluation of the overall patterns of the Latamber dam behavior in terms of displacements, stress, strain, and acceleration fields. Similarly, the seepage analysis allows evaluation of seepage through the foundation and embankment of the dam, while slope stability analysis estimates the factor of safety of the upstream and downstream of the dam. The results of the analysis demonstrate that among multiple geometries, Latamber dam is secure against seepage piping failure and slope stability (upstream and downstream) failure. Moreover, the dam is safe against any dynamic loading and no liquefaction has been observed while changing its geometry in permissible limits.

Keywords: earth-fill dam, finite element, liquefaction, seepage analysis

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Authors: Young-Kwan Choi, Han-Sang Jeong, Yeon-Ho Ok, Jae-Ho Choi

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The purpose of this study is to verify validity of design by testing output of induction generator through finite element analysis before manufacture of induction generator designed. Characteristics in the operating domain of induction generator can be understood through analysis of magnetic field according to load (rotational speed) of induction generator. Characteristics of induction generator such as induced voltage, current, torque, magnetic flux density (magnetic flux saturation), and loss can be predicted by analysis of magnetic field.

Keywords: electromagnetic analysis, induction generator, small hydro power generator, small francis turbine generator

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Authors: Abdelrahman Mohamed

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The ancient Egyptians used canopic vessels in embalming operations in order to preserve the guts of the mummified corpse. Canopic vessels were made of many materials, including pottery and glazed pottery. In this research, we study a pottery canopic vessel and a glazed pottery vessel. An analysis to find out the compounds and elements of the materials from which the container is made and the colors, and also to make some analysis for the organic materials present inside it, such as the Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy analysis and the Gas chromatograph mass spectrometers analysis of the organic residue. Through the study and analysis, it was proved that some of the materials present in the pot were coniferous oil and animal fats. In the other pot, the analysis showed the presence of some plant resins (mastic) inside rolls of linen. Restoration operations were carried out, such as mechanical cleaning, strengthening, and completing the reinforcement of the pots.

Keywords: canopic jar, embalming, FTIR, GCMS, linen.

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Authors: Chompunut Jantarasorn, Chutima Prommak

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This paper presents an intensive measurement studying of the network performance analysis when IEEE 802.11g Wireless Local Area Networks (WLAN) coexisting with IEEE 802.15.4 Wireless Personal Area Network (WPAN). The measurement results show that the coexistence between both networks could increase the Frame Error Rate (FER) of the IEEE 802.15.4 networks up to 60% and it could decrease the throughputs of the IEEE 802.11g networks up to 55%.

Keywords: wireless performance analysis, coexistence analysis, IEEE 802.11g, IEEE 802.15.4

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Authors: Mohammad Mirzaei

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This article proposes literary criticism as a source of insight into consumer behavior, provides an extensive overview of literary criticism, provides concrete illustrative analysis, and offers suggestions for further research. To do, a literary analysis of advertising copy identifies elements that provide additional information to consumer researchers and discusses the contribution of literary criticism to consumer research. Important post-war critical schools of thought are reviewed, and relevant theoretical concepts are summarized. Ivory Flakes' advertisements are analyzed using a variety of concepts drawn from literary schools, primarily sociocultural and reader responses. Suggestions for further research on content analysis, image analysis, and consumption history are presented.

Keywords: consumer behaviour, consumer research, consumption history, criticism

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Authors: S. Arpit, P. K. Das, S. K. Dash

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In this paper, a comparative study is done between two fuels, naphtha and natural gas (NG), for a gas turbine (GT) plant of 32.5 MW with the same thermodynamic configuration. From the energy analysis, it is confirmed that the turbine inlet temperature (TIT) of the gas turbine in the case of natural gas is higher as compared to naphtha, and hence the isentropic efficiency of the turbine is better. The result from the exergy analysis also confirms that due to high turbine inlet temperature in the case of natural gas, exergy destruction in combustion chamber is less. But comparing two fuels for overall analysis, naphtha has higher energy and exergetic efficiency as compared to natural gas.

Keywords: exergy analysis, gas turbine, naphtha, natural gas

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Authors: Mahdi Bazarganigilani

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Computer-aided diagnosis (CAD) systems can play crucial roles in diagnosing crucial diseases such as breast cancer at the earliest. In this paper, a CAD system for the diagnosis of breast cancer was introduced and evaluated. This CAD system was developed by using spatio-temporal analysis of data on a set of consecutive thermographic images by employing wavelet transformation. By using this analysis, a very accurate machine learning model using random forest was obtained. The final results showed a promising accuracy of 91% in terms of the F1 measure indicator among 200 patients' sample data. The CAD system was further extended to obtain a detailed analysis of the effect of smaller sub-areas of each breast on the occurrence of cancer.

Keywords: computer-aided diagnosis systems, thermographic analysis, spatio-temporal analysis, image processing, machine learning

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Authors: Mohammad Reza Ameri, Ali Massumi, Mohammad Haghbin

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Non-linear static analysis, commonly referred to as pushover analysis, is a powerful tool for assessing the seismic response of structures. A suitable lateral load pattern for pushover analysis can bring the results of this simple, quick and low-cost analysis close to the realistic results of nonlinear dynamic analyses. In this research, four samples of 10- and 15 story (two- and four-bay) reinforced concrete frames were studied. The lateral load distribution patterns recommended in FEMA 273/356 guidelines were applied to the sample models in order to perform pushover analyses. The results were then compared to the results obtained from several nonlinear incremental dynamic analyses for a range of earthquakes. Finally, a lateral load distribution pattern was proposed for pushover analysis of medium-rise reinforced concrete buildings based on the results of nonlinear static and dynamic analyses.

Keywords: lateral load pattern, nonlinear static analysis, incremental dynamic analysis, medium-rise reinforced concrete frames, performance based design

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Authors: Adel Assiri, Ahmed Emam, Hmood Al-Dossari

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Sentiment analysis (SA) has received growing attention in Arabic language research. However, few studies have yet to directly apply SA to Arabic due to lack of a publicly available dataset for this language. This paper partially bridges this gap due to its focus on one of the Arabic dialects which is the Saudi dialect. This paper presents annotated data set of 4700 for Saudi dialect sentiment analysis with (K= 0.807). Our next work is to extend this corpus and creation a large-scale lexicon for Saudi dialect from the corpus.

Keywords: Arabic, sentiment analysis, Twitter, annotation

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Authors: Sujit K. Basak

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This paper presents a comparison of reference management software between RefWorks and Zotero. The results were drawn by comparing two software and the novelty of this paper is the comparative analysis of software and it has shown that ReftWorks can import more information from the Google Scholar for the researchers. This finding could help to know researchers to use the reference management software.

Keywords: analysis, comparative analysis, reference management software, researchers

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Authors: Manthan Patel, Vinit Ahlawat, Anshh Singh Claire, Pijush Samui

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This paper focuses on the analysis of quicksand condition for a dam foundation. The quicksand condition occurs in cohesion less soil when effective stress of soil becomes zero. In a dam, the saturated sediment may appear quite solid until a sudden change in pressure or shock initiates liquefaction. This causes the sand to form a suspension and lose strength hence resulting in failure of dam. A soil profile shows different properties at different points and the values obtained are uncertain thus reliability analysis is performed. The reliability is defined as probability of safety of a system in a given environment and loading condition and it is assessed as Reliability Index. The reliability analysis of dams under quicksand condition is carried by Gaussian Process Regression (GPR). Reliability index and factor of safety relating to liquefaction of soil is analysed using GPR. The results of reliability analysis by GPR is compared to that of conventional method and it is demonstrated that on applying GPR the probabilistic analysis reduces the computational time and efforts.

Keywords: factor of safety, GPR, reliability index, quicksand

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Authors: Riona Dighe

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This research attempts to identify an alternative approach to the measurement of Gross National Happiness (GNH). It uses artificial intelligence (AI), incorporating natural language processing (NLP) and sentiment analysis to measure GNH. We use ‘off the shelf’ NLP models responsible for the sentiment analysis of a sentence as a building block for this research. We constructed an algorithm using NLP models to derive a sentiment analysis score against sentences. This was then tested against a sample of 20 respondents to derive a sentiment analysis score. The scores generated resembled human responses. By utilising the MLP classifier, decision tree, linear model, and K-nearest neighbors, we were able to obtain a test accuracy of 89.97%, 54.63%, 52.13%, and 47.9%, respectively. This gave us the confidence to use the NLP models against sentences in websites to measure the GNH of a country.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, NLP, sentiment analysis, gross national happiness

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Authors: P. Wlodarczak, J. Soar, M. Ally

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The dramatic rise in the use of Social Media (SM) platforms such as Facebook and Twitter provide access to an unprecedented amount of user data. Users may post reviews on products and services they bought, write about their interests, share ideas or give their opinions and views on political issues. There is a growing interest in the analysis of SM data from organisations for detecting new trends, obtaining user opinions on their products and services or finding out about their online reputations. A recent research trend in SM analysis is making predictions based on sentiment analysis of SM. Often indicators of historic SM data are represented as time series and correlated with a variety of real world phenomena like the outcome of elections, the development of financial indicators, box office revenue and disease outbreaks. This paper examines the current state of research in the area of SM mining and predictive analysis and gives an overview of the analysis methods using opinion mining and machine learning techniques.

Keywords: social media, text mining, knowledge discovery, predictive analysis, machine learning

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Authors: Majid A. AlSayari

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The study reported here investigated social cognitive theory (SCT) in the context of Vocational Rehab (VR) for people with disabilities. The prime purpose was to increase knowledge of VR phenomena and make recommendations for improving VR services. The sample consisted of 242 persons with Spinal Cord Injuries (SCI) who completed questionnaires. A further 32 participants were Trainers. Analysis of questionnaire data was carried out using factor analysis, multiple regression analysis, and thematic analysis. The analysis suggested that, in motivational terms, and consistent with research carried out in other academic contexts, self-efficacy was the best predictor of VR performance. The author concludes that that VR self-efficacy predicted VR training performance.

Keywords: people with physical disabilities, social cognitive theory, self-efficacy, vocational training

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Authors: Kyunghee Oh, Dooho Choi

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Although there is no theoretical weakness in a cryptographic algorithm, Side Channel Analysis can find out some secret data from the physical implementation of a cryptosystem. The analysis is based on extra information such as timing information, power consumption, electromagnetic leaks or even sound which can be exploited to break the system. Differential Power Analysis is one of the most popular analyses, as computing the statistical correlations of the secret keys and power consumptions. It is usually necessary to calculate huge data and takes a long time. It may take several weeks for some devices with countermeasures. We suggest and evaluate the methods to shorten the time to analyze cryptosystems. Our methods include distributed computing and parallelized processing.

Keywords: DPA, distributed computing, parallelized processing, side channel analysis

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Authors: Liang Zhao, Jili Zhang, Chongquan Zhong

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Energy consumption data, in particular those involving public buildings, are impacted by many factors: the building structure, climate/environmental parameters, construction, system operating condition, and user behavior patterns. Traditional methods for data analysis are insufficient. This paper delves into the data mining technology to determine its application in the analysis of building energy consumption data including energy consumption prediction, fault diagnosis, and optimal operation. Recent literature are reviewed and summarized, the problems faced by data mining technology in the area of energy consumption data analysis are enumerated, and research points for future studies are given.

Keywords: data mining, data analysis, prediction, optimization, building operational performance

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Authors: Adrian W. Chew

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This paper argues that education policy analysis tends to be steered towards empiricist oriented approaches, which place emphasis on objective and measurable data. However, this paper argues that empiricist oriented approaches are generally based on inductive and/or deductive reasoning, which are unable to generate new ideas/knowledge. This paper will outline the logical structure of induction, deduction, and abduction, and argues that only abduction provides possibilities for the creation of new ideas/knowledge. This paper proposes the neologism of ‘informed guessing’ as a reformulation of abduction, and also as an approach to education policy analysis. On one side, the signifier ‘informed’ encapsulates the idea that abductive policy analysis needs to be informed by descriptive conceptualization theory to be able to make relations and connections between, and within, observed phenomenon and unobservable general structures. On the other side, the signifier ‘guessing’ captures the cyclical and unsystematic process of abduction. This paper will end with a brief example of utilising ‘informed guessing’ for a policy analysis of school choice lotteries in the United States.

Keywords: abductive reasoning, empiricism, informed guessing, policy analysis

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