Search results for: oil prices changes

Authors: Jamilatuzzahro, Rezzy Eko Caraka

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The yield curve is the plot of the yield to maturity of zero-coupon bonds against maturity. In practice, the yield curve is not observed but must be extracted from observed bond prices for a set of (usually) incomplete maturities. There exist many methodologies and theory to analyze of yield curve. We use two methods (the Nelson-Siegel Method, the Svensson Method, and the SVR method) in order to construct and compare our zero-coupon yield curves. The objectives of this research were: (i) to study the adequacy of NSS model and SVR to Indonesian government bonds data, (ii) to choose the best optimization or estimation method for NSS model and SVR. To obtain that objective, this research was done by the following steps: data preparation, cleaning or filtering data, modeling, and model evaluation.

Keywords: support vector regression, Nelson-Siegel-Svensson, yield curve, Indonesian government

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Authors: Amir Azaron

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In this research, a stochastic programming approach is developed for designing supply chains with uncertain parameters. Demands and selling prices of products at markets are considered as the uncertain parameters. The proposed mathematical model will be multi-period two-stage stochastic programming, which takes into account the selection of retailer sites, suppliers, production levels, inventory levels, transportation modes to be used for shipping goods, and shipping quantities among the entities of the supply chain network. The objective function is to maximize the chain’s net present value. In order to maximize the chain’s NPV, the sum of first-stage investment costs on retailers, and the expected second-stage processing, inventory-holding and transportation costs should be kept as low as possible over multiple periods. The effects of supply uncertainty where suppliers are unreliable will also be investigated on the efficiency of the supply chain.

Keywords: supply chain management, stochastic programming, multiobjective programming, inventory control

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Authors: Jixiang Zhang

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A dynamic of Bertrand duopoly game is analyzed, where players use different production methods and choose their prices with bounded rationality. The equilibriums of the corresponding discrete dynamical systems are investigated. The stability conditions of Nash equilibrium under a local adjustment process are studied. The stability conditions of Nash equilibrium under a local adjustment process are studied. The stability of Nash equilibrium, as some parameters of the model are varied, gives rise to complex dynamics such as cycles of higher order and chaos. On this basis, we discover that an increase of adjustment speed of bounded rational player can make Bertrand market sink into the chaotic state. Finally, the complex dynamics, bifurcations and chaos are displayed by numerical simulation.

Keywords: Bertrand duopoly model, discrete dynamical system, heterogeneous expectations, nash equilibrium

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Authors: G. Erkomaishvili, R. Gvelesiani, E. Kharaishvili, M. Chavleishvili

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The topic reviews the situation existing currently in Georgia in the field of tourism in conditions of globalization: Touristic resources, the paces of development of the tourism infrastructure, tourism policy, possibilities of development of the Wellness industry in Georgia that is the newest direction of the medical tourism. The factors impeding the development of the industry of tourism, namely-existence of the conflict zones, high rates of the bank credits, deficiencies associated with the tax laws, a level of infrastructural development, quality of services, deficit in the competitive staff, increase of prices in the peak seasons, insufficient promotion of the touristic opportunities of Georgia on the international markets are studied and analyzed. Besides, the levels of development of tourism in Georgia according to the World Economic Forum, aspects of cooperation with the European Union etc. are reviewed. As a result of these studies, a strategy of development of tourism and one of its directions-Wellness industries in Georgia is introduced with the relevant conclusions, on which basis the recommendations are provided.

Keywords: about tourism, tourism policy, wellness industry, business, innovation, technology

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Authors: Yuzhi Cai

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In this paper, we introduce a newly developed quantile function model that can be used for estimating conditional distributions of financial returns and for obtaining multi-step ahead out-of-sample predictive distributions of financial returns. Since we forecast the whole conditional distributions, any predictive quantity of interest about the future financial returns can be obtained simply as a by-product of the method. We also show an application of the model to the daily closing prices of Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) series over the period from 2 January 2004 - 8 October 2010. We obtained the predictive distributions up to 15 days ahead for the DJIA returns, which were further compared with the actually observed returns and those predicted from an AR-GARCH model. The results show that the new model can capture the main features of financial returns and provide a better fitted model together with improved mean forecasts compared with conventional methods. We hope this talk will help audience to see that this new model has the potential to be very useful in practice.

Keywords: DJIA, financial returns, predictive distribution, quantile function model

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Authors: A. M. Jungudo, M. A. Lasan

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Affordable housing has long been one of the basic necessities of life to man. The ever rising prices of building materials are one of the major causes of housing shortage in many developing countries. Breaching the gap of housing needs in developing countries like Nigeria is an awaiting task longing for attention. This is due to lack of research in the development of local materials that will suit the troubled economies of these countries. The use of earth material to meet the housing needs is a sustainable option and its material is freely available universally. However, people are doubtful of using the earth material due to its modest outlook and uncertain durability. This research aims at enhancing the durability of Compressed Earth Bricks (CEBs) using stone dust as a stabilizer. The result indicates that partial replacement of lateritic soil with stone dust at 30% improves its compressive strength along with abrasive resistance.

Keywords: earth construction, durability, stone dust, sustainable

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Authors: M. Khal, Ab. Algouti, A. Algouti

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Water erosion is the major cause of the erosion that shapes the earth's surface. Modeling water erosion requires the use of software and GIS programs, commercial or closed source. The very high prices for commercial GIS licenses, motivates users and researchers to find open source software as relevant and applicable as the proprietary GIS. The objective of this study is the modeling of water erosion and the hydrogeological and morphophysical characterization of the Oued M'Goun watershed (southern flank of the Central High Atlas) developed by free programs of GIS. The very pertinent results are obtained by executing tasks and algorithms in a simple and easy way. Thus, the various geoscientific and geostatistical analyzes of a digital elevation model (SRTM 30 m resolution) and their combination with the treatments and interpretation of satellite imagery information allowed us to characterize the region studied and to map the area most vulnerable to water erosion.

Keywords: central High-Atlas, hydrogeology, M’Goun watershed, OpenGis, water erosion

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Authors: Taher Abofol, Eldad Yechiam, Thorsten Pachur

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In four studies, we examined whether seller and buyers differ not only in subjective price levels for objects (i.e., the endowment effect) but also in their relative accuracy given objects varying in expected value. If, as has been proposed, sellers stand to accrue a more substantial loss than buyers do, then their pricing decisions should be more sensitive to expected-value differences between objects. This is implied by loss aversion due to the steeper slope of prospect theory’s value function for losses than for gains, as well as by loss attention account, which posits that losses increase the attention invested in a task. Both accounts suggest that losses increased sensitivity to relative values of different objects, which should result in better alignment of pricing decisions to the objective value of objects on the part of sellers. Under loss attention, this characteristic should only emerge under certain boundary conditions. In Study 1 a published dataset was reanalyzed, in which 152 participants indicated buying or selling prices for monetary lotteries with different expected values. Relative EV sensitivity was calculated for participants as the Spearman rank correlation between their pricing decisions for each of the lotteries and the lotteries' expected values. An ANOVA revealed a main effect of perspective (sellers versus buyers), F(1,150) = 85.3, p < .0001 with greater EV sensitivity for sellers. Study 2 examined the prediction (implied by loss attention) that the positive effect of losses on performance emerges particularly under conditions of time constraints. A published dataset was reanalyzed, where 84 participants were asked to provide selling and buying prices for monetary lotteries in three deliberations time conditions (5, 10, 15 seconds). As in Study 1, an ANOVA revealed greater EV sensitivity for sellers than for buyers, F(1,82) = 9.34, p = .003. Importantly, there was also an interaction of perspective by deliberation time. Post-hoc tests revealed that there were main effects of perspective both in the condition with 5s deliberation time, and in the condition with 10s deliberation time, but not in the 15s condition. Thus, sellers’ EV-sensitivity advantage disappeared with extended deliberation. Study 3 replicated the design of study 1 but administered the task three times to test if the effect decays with repeated presentation. The results showed that the difference between buyers and sellers’ EV sensitivity was replicated in repeated task presentations. Study 4 examined the loss attention prediction that EV-sensitivity differences can be eliminated by manipulations that reduce the differential attention investment of sellers and buyers. This was carried out by randomly mixing selling and buying trials for each participant. The results revealed no differences in EV sensitivity between selling and buying trials. The pattern of results is consistent with an attentional resource-based account of the differences between sellers and buyers. Thus, asking people to price, an object from a seller's perspective rather than the buyer's improves the relative accuracy of pricing decisions; subtle changes in the framing of one’s perspective in a trading negotiation may improve price accuracy.

Keywords: decision making, endowment effect, pricing, loss aversion, loss attention

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Authors: Manoel Pereira, Alvaro Veiga, Camila Epprecht, Renato Costa

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This paper introduces an empirical version of the Esscher transform for risk-neutral option pricing. Traditional parametric methods require the formulation of an explicit risk-neutral model and are operational only for a few probability distributions for the returns of the underlying. In our proposal, we make only mild assumptions on the pricing kernel and there is no need for the formulation of the risk-neutral model for the returns. First, we simulate sample paths for the returns under the physical distribution. Then, based on the empirical Esscher transform, the sample is reweighted, giving rise to a risk-neutralized sample from which derivative prices can be obtained by a weighted sum of the options pay-offs in each path. We compare our proposal with some traditional parametric pricing methods in four experiments with artificial and real data.

Keywords: esscher transform, generalized autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH), nonparametric option pricing

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Authors: Jixiang Zhang, Yanhua Wang

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A dynamic of Bertrand duopoly game is analyzed, where players use different production methods and choose their prices with bounded rationality. The equilibriums of the corresponding discrete dynamical systems are investigated. The stability conditions of Nash equilibrium under a local adjustment process are studied. The stability conditions of Nash equilibrium under a local adjustment process are studied. The stability of Nash equilibrium, as some parameters of the model are varied, gives rise to complex dynamics such as cycles of higher order and chaos. On this basis, we discover that an increase of adjustment speed of bounded rational player can make Bertrand market sink into the chaotic state. Finally, the complex dynamics, bifurcations and chaos are displayed by numerical simulation.

Keywords: Bertrand duopoly model, discrete dynamical system, heterogeneous expectations, nash equilibrium

Procedia PDF Downloads 379

Authors: Aslam Faheem, Hunjra Ahmed Imran, Tayachi Tahar, Verhoeven Peter, Tariq Yasir

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We investigate the evidence of three risk-adjusted calendar anomalies in eight frontier markets. Our sample consists of the daily closing prices of their stock indices for the period of January 2006 to September 2019. We categorize the data with respect to day-of-the-week, Lunar calendar and Islamic calendar. Using Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) eight Markets Index as our proxy of the market portfolio, most of the frontier markets tested exhibit calendar seasonality. We confirm that systematic risk varies with respect to day-of-the-week, Lunar months and Islamic months. After consideration of time-varying risk and applying Bonferroni correction, few frontier markets exhibit profitable investment opportunities from calendar return anomalies for active investment managers.

Keywords: asset pricing, frontier markets, market efficiency, Islamic calendar effects, Islamic stock markets

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Authors: Tianyu Wang, Nikita Karandikar

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The uncertainty around cost, safety, and feasibility of the decarbonized shipping fuels has made it increasingly complex for the shipping companies to set pricing strategies and forecast their freight revenues going forward. The increase in the green fuel surcharges will ultimately influence the automobile’s consumer prices. The auto shipping demand (ton-miles) has been gradually shifting from long-haul to short-sea trade over the past years following the relocation of the original equipment manufacturer (OEM) manufacturing to regions such as South America and Southeast Asia. The objective of this paper is twofold: 1) to investigate the car-carriers freight revenue development over the years when the trade pattern is gradually shifting towards short-sea exports 2) to empirically identify the quantitative impact of such trade pattern shifting to mainly freight rate, but also vessel size, fleet size as well as Green House Gas (GHG) emission in Roll on-Roll Off (Ro-Ro) shipping. In this paper, a model of analyzing and forecasting ton-miles and freight revenues for the trade routes of AS-NA (Asia to North America), EU-NA (Europe to North America), and SA-NA (South America to North America) is established by deploying Automatic Identification System (AIS) data and the financial results of a selected car carrier company. More specifically, Wallenius Wilhelmsen Logistics (WALWIL), the Norwegian Ro-Ro carrier listed on Oslo Stock Exchange, is selected as the case study company in this paper. AIS-based ton-mile datasets of WALWIL vessels that are sailing into North America region from three different origins (Asia, Europe, and South America), together with WALWIL’s quarterly freight revenues as reported in trade segments, will be investigated and compared for the past five years (2018-2022). Furthermore, ordinary‐least‐square (OLS) regression is utilized to construct the ton-mile demand and freight revenue forecasting. The determinants of trade pattern shifting, such as import tariffs following the China-US trade war and fuel prices following the 0.1% Emission Control Areas (ECA) zone requirement after IMO2020 will be set as key variable inputs to the machine learning model. The model will be tested on another newly listed Norwegian Car Carrier, Hoegh Autoliner, to forecast its 2022 financial results and to validate the accuracy based on its actual results. GHG emissions on the three routes will be compared and discussed based on a constant emission per mile assumption and voyage distances. Our findings will provide important insights about 1) the trade-off evaluation between revenue reduction and energy saving with the new ton-mile pattern and 2) how the trade flow shifting would influence the future need for the vessel and fleet size.

Keywords: AIS, automobile exports, maritime big data, trade flows

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Authors: Inyene Nathaniel Nkanta

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The present economic situation in Nigeria, with an increase in inflation rate due to the fall of crude oil prices and post covid-19 crisis, has increased the level of poverty and suffering in Nigeria, particularly the women. Against that backdrop, this research project is initiated to explore ways to empower women through entrepreneurship education and training to ameliorate the poverty level amongst women in Nigeria. A qualitative approach to data collection will be applied in this study and to test the assertions of this research project empirically, this research adopts a case study research method as this will enable me to obtain and probe ways women can be empowered through semi-structured interviews and focus groups. The result of this research project will provide an original perspective on human capital development, most importantly, the need for entrepreneurial education and entrepreneurial literature and practice.

Keywords: women, Nigeria, entrepreneurship education, Economic development, human capital

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Authors: Abdulla D. Alblooshi

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The stock market is a representation of human behavior and psychology, such as fear, greed, and discipline. Those are manifested in the form of price movements during the trading sessions. Therefore, predicting the stock movement and prices is a challenging effort. However, those trading sessions produce a large amount of data that can be utilized to train an AI agent for the purpose of predicting the stock movement. Predicting the stock market price action will be advantageous. In this paper, the stock movement data of three DFM listed stocks are studied using historical price movements and technical indicators value and used to train an agent using KNN and SVM methods to predict the future price movement. MATLAB Toolbox and a simple script is written to process and classify the information and output the prediction. It will also compare the different learning methods and parameters s using metrics like RMSE, MAE, and R².

Keywords: KNN, ANN, style, SVM, stocks, technical indicators, RSI, MACD, moving averages, RMSE, MAE

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Authors: Tai-Yue Wang, Yi-Ho Chen

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In this study, we investigate a two-echelon supply chain with two suppliers and three retailers among which one retailer dominates other retailers. A price competition demand function is used to model this dominant retailer, which is leading market. The promotion strategies and negotiation schemes are integrated to form decision-making models under different scenarios. These models are then formulated into different mathematical programming models. The decision variables such as promotional costs, retailer prices, wholesale price, and order quantity are included in these models. At last, the distributions of promotion costs under different cost allocation strategies are discussed. Finally, an empirical example used to validate our models. The results from this empirical example show that the profit model will create the largest profit for the supply chain but with different profit-sharing results. At the same time, the more risk a member can take, the more profits are distributed to that member in the utility model.

Keywords: supply chain, price promotion, mathematical models, dominant retailer

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Authors: Tom D. Gedeon, Ujala Rampaul

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The evaluation of electronic consumer goods are most often done from the perspective of analysing the latest models, comparing their advantages and disadvantages with respect to price. This style of evaluation is often performed by one or a few product experts on a wide range of features that may not be applicable to each user. We instead used a scenario-based approach to evaluate a number of e-readers. The setting is similar to a user who is interested in a new product or technology and has allocated a limited budget. We evaluate the quality and usability of e-readers available within that budget range. This is based on the assumption of a rational market which prices older second hand devices the same as functionally equivalent new devices. We describe our evaluation and comparison of four branded eReaders, as the initial stage of a larger project. The scenario has a range of tasks approximating a busy person who does not bother to read the manual. We found that navigation within books to be the most significant differentiator between the eReaders in our scenario based evaluation process.

Keywords: eReader, scenario based, price comparison, Kindle, Kobo, Nook, Sony, technology adoption

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Authors: Elieder P. Romanzini, Lutti M. Delevatti, Rhaony G. Leite, Ricardo A. Reis, Euclides B. Malheiros

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Brazilian beef cattle production systems are an important profitability source for the national gross domestic product. The main characteristic of these systems is forage utilization as the exclusive feed source. Forage utilization had been causing on owners the false feeling of low production costs. However, this low cost is followed to low profit causing a lot times worst animal index what can result in activities changes or until land sold. Aiming to evaluate economic impacts into Brazilian beef cattle systems were evaluated four nitrogen fertilizer (N) application levels (0, 90, 180 and 270 kg per hectare [kg.ha-1]). Research was developed during 2015 into Forage Crops and Grasslands section of São Paulo State University, “Júlio de Mesquita Filho” (Unesp) (Jaboticabal, São Paulo, Brazil). Pastures were seeded with Brachiaria brizantha Stapf. ‘Marandu’ (Palisade grass) handled using continuous grazing system, with variable stocking rate, sward height maintained at 25 cm. The economic evaluation was developed in rearing e finishing phases. We evaluated the cash flows inside each phase on different N levels. Economic valuations were considering: cost-effective operating (CEO), cost-total operating (CTO), gross revenue (GR), operating profit (OP) and net income (NI), every measured in US$. Complementary analyses were developed, profitability was calculated by [OP/GR]. Pay back (measured in years) was calculated considering average capital stocktaking pondered by area in use (ACS) divided by [GR-CEO]. And the internal rate of return (IRR) was calculated by 100/(pay back). Input prices were prices during 2015 and were obtained from Anuário Brasileiro da Pecuária, Centro de Estudos Avançados em Economia Aplicada and quotation in the same region of animal production (northeast São Paulo State) during the period above mentioned. Values were calculated in US$ according exchange rate US$1.00 equal R$3.34. The CEO, CTO, GR, OP and NI per hectare for each N level were respectively US$1,919.66; US$2,048.47; US$2,905.72; US$857.25 and US$986.06 to 0 kg.ha-1; US$2,403.20; US$2,551.80; US$3,530.19; US$978.39 and US$1,126.99 to 90 kg.ha-1; US$3,180.42; US$3,364.81; US$4,985.03; US$1,620.23 and US$1,804.62 to 180 kg.ha-1andUS$3,709.14; US$3,915.15; US$5,554.95; US$1,639.80 and US$1,845.81 to 270 kg.ha-1. Relationship to another economic indexes, profitability, pay back and IRR, the results were respectively 29.50%, 6.44 and 15.54% to 0 kg.ha-1; 27.72%, 6.88 and 14.54% to 90 kg.ha-1; 32.50%, 4.08 and 24.50% to 180 kg.ha-1 and 29.52%, 3.42 and 29.27% to 270 kg.ha-1. Values previously presented in this evaluation allowing to affirm that the best result was obtained to N level 270 kg.ha-1. These results among all N levels evaluated could be explained by improve occurred on stocking rate caused by increase on N level. However, a crucial information about high N level application into pastures is the efficiency of N utilization (associated to environmental impacts) that normally decrease with the increase on N level. Hence, considering all situations (efficiency of N utilization and economic results) into tropical pastures used to beef cattle production could be recommended N level equal to 180kg.ha-1, which had better profitability and cause lesser environmental impacts, proved by other studies developed in the same area.

Keywords: Brachiaria brizantha, cost-total operating, gross revenue, profitability

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Authors: Mousa Bani Baker, Raed Abendeh, Zaidoon Abu Salem, Hesham Ahmad

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This research paper was commissioned to discuss the Jordanian marble, which is a non-foliated metamorphic rock composed of recrystallized carbonate minerals, most commonly calcite or dolomite. Geologists use the term "marble" to refer to metamorphosed limestone; however, stonemasons use the term more broadly to encompass unmetamorphised limestone. Marble is commonly used for sculpture and as a building material. The marble has many uses; one of them is using the white marble that has been prized for its use in sculptures since classical times. This preference has to do with its softness, relative isotropy and homogeneity, and a relative resistance to shattering. Another use of it is the construction marble which is “a stone which is composed of calcite, dolomite or serpentine which is capable of taking a polish” Marble Institute of America. This report focuses most about the marble in Jordan and its properties: rock definition, physical properties, the marble occurrences in Jordan, types of Jordanian marble and their prices and test done on this marble.

Keywords: marble, metamorphic, non-foliated, compressive strength, recrystallized, Moh’s hardness, abrasion, absorption, modulus of rupture, porosity

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Authors: Soheil Mohtaram, Wu Weidong, Yashar Aryanfar

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This research investigates the points with heat recovery potential in a triple-pressure cogeneration combined cycle power plant and determines the amount of waste heat that can be recovered. A modified cycle arrangement is then adopted for accessing thermal potentials. Modeling the energy system is followed by thermodynamic and energetic evaluation, and then the price of the manufactured products is also determined using the Total Revenue Requirement (TRR) method and term economic analysis. The results of optimization are then presented in a Pareto chart diagram by implementing a new model with dual objective functions, which include power cost and produce heat. This model can be utilized to identify the optimal operating point for such power plants based on electricity and heat prices in different regions.

Keywords: heat loss, recycling, unused energy, efficient production, optimization, triple-pressure cogeneration

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Authors: Zaid Jamal Saeed Almahmoud

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Smart Grid is the vision of the future power system that combines advanced monitoring and communication technologies to provide energy in a smart, efficient, and user-friendly manner. This proposal considers a demand response model in the Smart Grid based on utility maximization. Given a set of consumers with conflicting preferences in terms of consumption and a utility company that aims to minimize the peak demand and match demand to supply, we study the problem of aggregating these preferences while modelling the problem as a game. We also investigate whether an equilibrium can be reached to maximize the social benefit. Based on such equilibrium, we propose a dynamic pricing heuristic that computes the equilibrium and sets the prices accordingly. The developed approach was analysed theoretically and evaluated experimentally using real appliances data. The results show that our proposed approach achieves a substantial reduction in the overall energy consumption.

Keywords: heuristics, smart grid, aggregation, mechanism design, equilibrium

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Authors: Algia Hammami, Abdelfatteh Bouri

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In this work, our objective is to study the transmission of volatility between oil and stock markets in developed (USA, Germany, Italy, France and Japan) and emerging countries (Tunisia, Thailand, Brazil, Argentina, and Jordan) for the period 1998-2015. Our methodology consists of analyzing the monthly data by the GARCH-BEKK model to capture the effect in terms of volatility in the variation of the oil price on the different stock market. The empirical results in the emerging countries indicate that the relationships are unidirectional from the stock market to the oil market. For the developed countries, we find that the transmission of volatility is unidirectional from the oil market to stock market. For the USA and Italy, we find no transmission between the two markets. The transmission is bi-directional only in Thailand. Following our estimates, we also noticed that the emerging countries influence almost the same extent as the developed countries, while at the transmission of volatility there a bid difference. The GARCH-BEKK model is more effective than the others versions to minimize the risk of an oil-stock portfolio.

Keywords: GARCH, oil prices, stock market, volatility transmission

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Authors: Bassam Istanbouli

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Organizations are living in a very competitive and dynamic environment which is constantly changing. In order to achieve a high level of service, the products and processes of these organizations need to be flexible and evolvable. If the supply chains are not modular and well designed, changes can bring combinatorial effects to most areas of a company from its management, financial, documentation, logistics and its information structure. Applying the normalized system’s concept to segments of the supply chain may help in reducing those ripple effects, but it may also increase lead times. Lead times are important and can become a decisive element in gaining customers. Industries are always under the pressure in providing good quality products, at competitive prices, when and how the customer wants them. Most of the time, the customers want their orders now, if not yesterday. The above concept will be proven by examining lead times in a manufacturing example before and after applying normalized systems concept to that segment of the chain. We will then show that although we can minimize the combinatorial effects when changes occur, the lead times will be increased.

Keywords: supply chain, lead time, normalization, modular

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Authors: Nora Yusma Bte Mohamed Yusoff, Hussain Ali Bekhet

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The rationalization of a gradual subsidies reforms plan has been set out by the Malaysian government to achieve the high-income nation target. This paper attempts to analyze the impacts of energy subsidy reform policy on fiscal deficit and macroeconomics variables in Malaysia. The Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model is employed. Three simulations based on different groups of scenarios have been developed. Importantly, the overall results indicate that removal of fuel subsidy has significantly improved the real GDP and reduced the government fiscal deficit. On the other hand, the removal of the fuel subsidy has increased most of the local commodity prices, especially energy commodities. The findings of the study could provide some imperative inputs for policy makers, especially to identify the right policy mechanism. This is especially ensures the subsidy savings from subsidy removal could be transferred back into the domestic economy in the form of infrastructure development, compensation and increases in others sector output contributions towards a sustainable economic growth.

Keywords: CGE, deficit, energy, reform, subsidy

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Authors: Sol Girouard, Zona Kostic

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A home is often the largest and most expensive purchase a person makes. Whether the decision leads to a successful outcome will be determined by a combination of critical factors. In this paper, we propose a method that efficiently handles all the factors in residential real estate and performs predictions given a feature space with high dimensionality while controlling for overfitting. The proposed method was built on gradient descent and boosting algorithms and uses a mixed optimizing technique to improve the prediction power. Usually, a single model cannot handle all the cases thus our approach builds multiple models based on different subsets of the predictors. The algorithm was tested on 3 million homes across the U.S., and the experimental results demonstrate the efficiency of this approach by outperforming techniques currently used in forecasting prices. With everyday changes on the real estate market, our proposed algorithm capitalizes from new events allowing more efficient predictions.

Keywords: real estate prediction, gradient descent, boosting, ensemble methods, active learning, training

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Authors: Olivia Rybak-Karkosz

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Art forgery is a serious problem present in the art market in every country despite its scale and experience. In the Polish art market, this problem has existed since its beginnings. The market expansion in recent years attracted new buyers, which led to growing prices of polish art. And that attracted deceitful sellers who supply the market with forgeries. Moreover, there are many new types of buyers, many of whom are art non-specialists. But even the most experienced collectors must be cautious when purchasing a piece of art. In this paper, the author would like to discuss legal acts in Polish law that criminalize the forgery of a piece of art and compare them with similar regulations from four European countries - the Italian Republic, Kingdom of the Netherlands, French Republic, and the Federal Republic of Germany. The author wants to verify if any solutions could inspire Polish legislators to implement them in domestic law to help reduce this crime and improve the criminal procedure of art forgery. The paper contains a concluding statement to implement a similar solution used in one of the presented countries.

Keywords: art forgery, comparative law, criminal law, criminal liability, protection of works of art

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Authors: Nino Abesadze, Marine Mindorashvili, Nino Paresashvili

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The main purpose of the article is to make complex statistical analysis of tourist expenses of foreign visitors. We used mixed technique of selection that implies rules of random and proportional selection. Computer software SPSS was used to compute statistical data for corresponding analysis. Corresponding methodology of tourism statistics was implemented according to international standards. Important information was collected and grouped from the major Georgian airports. Techniques of statistical observation were prepared. A representative population of foreign visitors and a rule of selection of respondents were determined. We have a trend of growth of tourist numbers and share of tourists from post-soviet countries constantly increases. Level of satisfaction with tourist facilities and quality of service has grown, but still we have a problem of disparity between quality of service and prices. The design of tourist expenses of foreign visitors is diverse; competitiveness of tourist products of Georgian tourist companies is higher.

Keywords: tourist, expenses, methods, statistics, analysis

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Authors: Huey-Kuo Chen

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This paper applies directional marginal productivity model to study the shadow price of emissions by transportation modes in the years of 2011 and 2013 with the aim to provide a reference for policy makers to improve the emission of pollutants. One input variable (i.e., energy consumption), one desirable output variable (i.e., vehicle kilometers traveled) and three undesirable output variables (i.e., carbon dioxide, sulfur oxides and nitrogen oxides) generated by road transportation modes were used to evaluate directional marginal productivity and directional shadow price for 18 transportation modes. The results show that the directional shadow price (DSP) of SOx is much higher than CO2 and NOx. Nevertheless, the emission of CO2 is the largest among the three kinds of pollutants. To improve the air quality, the government should pay more attention to the emission of CO2 and apply the alternative solution such as promoting public transportation and subsidizing electric vehicles to reduce the use of private vehicles.

Keywords: marginal productivity, road transportation modes, shadow price, undesirable outputs

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Authors: Khalid Mujaljal, Hassan Alhajhoj

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This paper empirically investigates the influence of oil price fluctuations on the key macroeconomic variables of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia using unrestricted VAR methodology. Two analytical tools- Granger-causality and variance decomposition are used. The Granger-causality test reveals that almost all specifications of oil price shocks significantly Granger-cause GDP and demonstrates evidence of causality between oil price changes and money supply (M3) and consumer price index percent (CPIPC) in the case of positive oil price shocks. Surprisingly, almost all specifications of oil price shocks do not Granger-cause government expenditure. The outcomes from variance decomposition analysis suggest that positive oil shocks contribute about 25 percent in causing inflation in the country. Also, contribution of symmetric linear oil price shocks and asymmetric positive oil price shocks is significant and persistent with 25 percent explaining variation in world consumer price index till end of the period.

Keywords: Granger causality, oil prices changes, Saudi Arabian economy, variance decomposition

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Authors: Arun Karoriya, Mrinal Agrawal

Abstract:

Health is one of the basic requirements of human being. And today India is facing a major degradation of health at every age group. As society evolves and flourishes, there are different types of rules, norms, standards which are required to control the conduct of the human being for its well-being and growth. Right to health is one of those aspects that can be counted, discovered and examined under the purview of constitutional provisions of India. The condition of health is at downfall despite the fact that there are several policies framed by the government. There is an urgent call for rigid public health laws to ensure safe and disease free society. The effectiveness of health law has to be examined by keeping in mind that it is hampering growth and economy and society establishment. Health in any society is a main social aspect as it plays a major role for economic development. The multidimensional approach to determine it is by discussing i) rational selection and use of medicines ii) sustainable adequate financing iii) affordable prices iv)reliable health and supply systems.

Keywords: degradation, flourish, multidimensional, policies

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Authors: Naveed Ahmed Khan

Abstract:

The ever increasing importance of food industry cannot be denied and especially in the wake of escalating population and prices both in developing and developed nations. Thus, this issue demands the attention of researchers especially in the area of supply chain to identify cost diminution waste eliminating supply chain practices in the said industry. For such purpose the 'Dairy Division' of Engro Foods Limited, one of the biggest food companies in Pakistan was taken into consideration in a case study manner. Based on the literature review and interviews following variables were obtained: energy, losses, maintenance, taxes, and logistics. Having studied the said variables, it was concluded that management of relevant industries operating in a comparable environment need to efficiently manage two major areas: energy and taxes. On the other hand, similar kind of other organizations could be benefited by adopting the proficient supply chain practices being observed at dairy division of Engro foods limited.

Keywords: cost diminution, supply chain, dairy industry, Engro Foods Limited

Procedia PDF Downloads 268