Search results for: normal prevention probability size

Authors: Maryum Nawaz

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Purpose: To determine the frequency of refractive errors in squinting eyes of children from 4 to 16 years presenting at tertiary care hospital. Study Design: A descriptive cross-sectional study was done. Place and Duration: The study was conducted in Pediatric Ophthalmology, Hayatabad Medical Complex, Peshawar. Materials and Methods: The sample size was 146 keeping 41.45%5 proportion of refractive errors in children with squinting eyes, 95% confidence interval and 8% margin of error under WHO sample size calculations. Non-probability consecutive sampling was done. Result: Mean age was 8.57±2.66 years. Male were 89 (61.0%) and female were 57 (39.0%). Refractive error was present in 56 (38.4%) and was not present in 90 (61.6%) of patients. There was no association of gender, age, parent refractive errors, or early usage of electric equipment with the refractive errors. Conclusion: There is a high prevalence of refractive errors in a patient with strabismus. There is no association of age, gender, parent refractive errors, or early usage of electric equipment in the occurrence of refractive errors. Further studies are recommended for confirmation of these.

Keywords: strabismus, refractive error, myopia, hypermetropia, astigmatism

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Authors: Weichao Yu, Kai Wen, Weihe Huang, Yang Yang, Jing Gong

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Metal-loss corrosion is a major threat to the safety and integrity of gas pipelines as it may result in the burst failures which can cause severe consequences that may include enormous economic losses as well as the personnel casualties. Therefore, it is important to ensure the corroding pipeline integrity and efficiency, considering the value of wall thickness, which plays an important role in the failure probability of corroding pipeline. Actually, the wall thickness is controlled during pipe purchase stage. For example, the API_SPEC_5L standard regulates the allowable tolerance of the wall thickness from the specified value during the pipe purchase. The allowable wall thickness tolerance will be used to determine the wall thickness distribution characteristic such as the mean value, standard deviation and distribution. Taking the uncertainties of the input variables in the burst limit-state function into account, the reliability approach rather than the deterministic approach will be used to evaluate the failure probability. Moreover, the cost of pipe purchase will be influenced by the allowable wall thickness tolerance. More strict control of the wall thickness usually corresponds to a higher pipe purchase cost. Therefore changing the wall thickness tolerance will vary both the probability of a burst failure and the cost of the pipe. This paper describes an approach to optimize the wall thickness tolerance considering both the safety and economy of corroding pipelines. In this paper, the corrosion burst limit-state function in Annex O of CSAZ662-7 is employed to evaluate the failure probability using the Monte Carlo simulation technique. By changing the allowable wall thickness tolerance, the parameters of the wall thickness distribution in the limit-state function will be changed. Using the reliability approach, the corresponding variations in the burst failure probability will be shown. On the other hand, changing the wall thickness tolerance will lead to a change in cost in pipe purchase. Using the variation of the failure probability and pipe cost caused by changing wall thickness tolerance specification, the optimal allowable tolerance can be obtained, and used to define pipe purchase specifications.

Keywords: allowable tolerance, corroding pipeline segment, operation cost, production cost, reliability approach

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Authors: Fotios Spyropoulos, Evangelia Androulaki, Vasileios Karagiannopoulos, Aristotelis Kompothrekas, Nikolaos Karagiannis

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The problem of 'fake news' and 'hoaxes' has dominated in recent years the field of news, politics, economy, safety, and security as dissemination of false information can intensively affect and mislead public discourse and public opinion. The widespread use of internet and social media platforms can substantially intensify these effects, which often include public fear and insecurity. Misinformation, malinformation, and disinformation have also been blamed for affecting election results in multiple countries, and since then, there have been efforts to tackle the phenomenon both on national and international level. The presentation will focus on methods of prevention of disseminating false information on social media and on the internet and will discuss relevant criminological views. The challenges that have arisen for criminal law will be covered, taking into account the potential need for a multi-national approach required in order to mitigate the extent and negative impact of the fake news phenomenon. Finally, the analysis will include a discussion on the potential usefulness of non-legal modalities of regulation and crime prevention, especially situational and social measures of prevention and the possibility of combining an array of methods to achieve better results on national and international level. This project has received funding from the Hellenic Foundation for Research and Innovation (HFRI) and the General Secretariat for Research and Technology (GSRT), under grant agreement No 80529.

Keywords: cybercrime, disinformation, fake news, prevention

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Authors: Mustafa Saeed Omar

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The formula which contains the maximum increase of mean bond length, melting entropy and critical particle radius is used to calculate lattice volume in nanoscale size crystals of Ga₂Se₃. This compound belongs to the binary group of III₂VI₃. The critical radius is calculated from the values of the first surface atomic layer height which is equal to 0.336nm. The size-dependent mean bond length is calculated by using an equation-free from fitting parameters. The size-dependent lattice parameter then is accordingly used to calculate the size-dependent lattice volume. The lattice size in the nanoscale region increases to about 77.6 A³, which is up to four times of its bulk state value 19.97 A³. From the values of the nanosize scale dependence of lattice volume, the nanoscale size dependence of melting temperatures is calculated. The melting temperature decreases with the nanoparticles size reduction, it becomes zero when the radius reaches to its critical value. Bulk melting temperature for Ga₂Se₃, for example, has values of 1293 K. From the size-dependent melting temperature and mean bond length, the size-dependent lattice thermal expansion is calculated. Lattice thermal expansion decreases with the decrease of nanoparticles size and reaches to its minimum value as the radius drops down to about 5nm.

Keywords: Ga₂Se₃, lattice volume, lattice thermal expansion, melting point, nanoparticles

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Authors: A. M. Maruthesh, B. M. Anandakumar, O. Kumara, Akshatha Gombi, S. R. Rajini

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Women play a vital role in ensuring proper development and growth of children. They also contribute significantly towards income generation, food preparation and health. Nutritional status reflects the health of a person and is influenced by the quality of foods eaten and the ability of the body to utilize these foods to meet its needs it is affected by various socio-economic factors including income, family size, occupation and educational status of the people. The study was undertaken on nutritional status of rural women in Heggadehalli of Doddaballapurtaluk and Venkathalli of Devanahallitaluk in Bengaluru rural district with the sample size of 200 respondents. The prevalence of symptoms of malnutrition in a community is in turn a reflection of dietary consumption of its members. Mean anthropometric measurement of rural women were 153.8 cm of height, 46.8 kg of weight. In comparison with the mean BMI standards, it was observed that 20 percent of women were under nourished, 64 percent of women were normal and 16 percent women were obese. In comparison with the mean waist/hip ratio with standards, it was observed that 84 percent were in normal category and 16 percent were obese. Education, land holding, income and age had significant positive association with anthropometric measurements of rural women. The deficient level of haemoglobin existed in 53 percent of rural women, low in 20 percent and only 27 percent had acceptable level. The occurrence of morbidity symptoms was higher in rural women, its illness reported among women in the study were pain in hands and legs, backache, headache, pain in abdomen, fever, weakness, cold and cough and acidity. This may be due to considerable amount of workload on women who spend 8 to 9 hours at work and after returning continue their day’s work at home also.

Keywords: anthrometry, body index, hemoglobin, nutrient deficiency, rural women, nutritional status

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Authors: Seon Soon Choi

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The principal purpose of this paper is to find the influence of maximum fatigue load on the probabilistic aspect of fatigue crack propagation life at a specified grown crack in magnesium alloys. The experiments of fatigue crack propagation are carried out in laboratory air under different conditions of the maximum fatigue loads to obtain the fatigue crack propagation data for the statistical analysis. In order to analyze the probabilistic aspect of fatigue crack propagation life, the goodness-of fit test for probability distribution of the fatigue crack propagation life at a specified grown crack is implemented through Anderson-Darling test. The good probability distribution of the fatigue crack propagation life is also verified under the conditions of the maximum fatigue loads.

Keywords: fatigue crack propagation life, magnesium alloys, maximum fatigue load, probability

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Authors: Wenqiu Cao

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Suicide prevention is a global problem that needs to be taken seriously. Investigating the mechanisms of suicide in major depressive disorder (MDD) separately through neuroimaging technology is essential for effective suicide prevention. And it’s particularly urgent in geriatric depressive patients since older adults are more likely to use rapidly deadly means, and suicidal behavior is more lethal for older adults. The current study reviews five studies related to suicide in geriatric MDD that uses neuroimaging methodology in order to analyze the relevant neurobiological mechanisms. The majority of the studies found significant white matter and grey matter reduction or lesion widespread in multiple brain regions, including the frontal and parietal regions, the midbrain, the external capsule, and the cerebellum. Regarding the cognitive impairment in geriatric MDD, the reward signals were found weakened in the paralimbic cortex. The functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) studies also found hemodynamic changes in the right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC), orbitofrontal cortex (OFC), and right frontopolar cortex (FPC) regions in late-life MDD patients with suicidal ideation. Future studies should consider the age of depression onset, more accurate measurements of suicide, larger sample size, and longitudinal design.

Keywords: brain imaging, geriatric major depressive disorder, suicidality, suicide

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Authors: Adar Pelah, Avraham Adelman, Amanda Balash, Jake Mitchell, Mattan J. Pelah, Viswadeep Sarangi, Xin Chen Cai, Zadok Storkey, Gregg B. Fields, Ximena Levy, Ali A. Danesh

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Introduction: Post-Acute Sequelae of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 infection (PASC), or Long COVID, while primarily a respiratory disorder, can also include dizziness, lasting weeks to months in individuals who had previously tested positive for COVID-19. This study utilized gait analysis to assess the potential vestibular effects of PASC on the presentation of gait anomalies. Materials and Methods: The study included 11 participants who tested positive for COVID-19, a mean of 2.8 months prior to gait testing (PP=11), and 8 control participants who did not test positive for COVID-19 (NP=8). Participants walked 7.5m at three self-selected speeds: ‘slow,’ ‘normal,’ and ‘fast.’ Mean walking speeds were determined for each speed and overall range from four laps on an instrumented walkway using video capture. Results: A Z-test at 0.05 significance was used for speed range, ‘normal’ and ‘fast’ at the lower tail, and for ‘slow’ at the higher tail. Average speeds (m/s) were: ‘slow’ (PP=0.709, NP=0.678), ‘normal’ (PP=1.141, NP=1.170), ‘fast’ (PP=1.529, NP=1.821), average range (PP=0.846, NP=1.143). Significant speed decreases between PP and NP were observed in ‘fast’ (-17.43%) and average range (-29.86%), while changes in ‘slow’ (+2.44%) and ‘normal’ (-4.39%) speeds were not significant. Conclusions: Long COVID is a recognized disability (Americans with Disabilities Act), and although it presents variably, dizziness, vertigo, and tinnitus are not uncommon in COVID-19 infection. These results suggest that potential inner-ear damage may persist and manifest in gait changes even after recovery from acute illness. Further research with a larger sample size may indicate the need for providers to consider PASC when diagnosing patients with vestibular dysfunction.

Keywords: gait analysis, long-COVID, vestibular dysfunction, walking speed

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Authors: Aurora Cerri, Niko Pollojani

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The Tirana – Elbasan Road project is the most important highway project in Albania, constructed in the period May 2011 - ongoing. This project included construction of 38 km highway category road including 2.6 km of tunnel. It serves as a corridor connecting the Tirana, Capital of Albania and South-East area, and in the near future it is expected to continue in the direction of Macedonian border. Environmental Impact Assesment procedure for this project is provided by the Albanian Environmental Law No. 10431. This law establishes the regulation of procedures for identifying, assessment and reporting on the effects of certain projects on the environment, and the associated administrative procedures, during the decision-making process by the Ministry of Environment and Tourism for issuing environmental permit, and ensures that all relevant information concerning the environment are provided and considered. Due to the nature and size of the project, during the environmental impact assessment process, the European Union legislation, namely the EIA Directive 85/337 / EEC is considered. Moreover, in some cases, due to the lack of national standards and practical guidelines, when necessary those of EU member countries are considered. This paper presents an analysis of the EIA procedure followed on ‘Tirana – Elbasan’ Road project, with a focus on the application of the main stages of the procedure such as: screening, scoping, review, the EIA report; and consideration of alternatives, measures for impact prevention and reduction, and the public hearing T/discussion.

Keywords: highway, environmental impact assesment, Tirana, prevention

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Authors: Ching-Hsu Huang, Shang-Huan Wu

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In recent years, environmental awareness has increased, environmental issues caused by meat-eating have been extended to promote reducing food surplus and waste advocates. We lose more than 3 million tons of food on average on a daily basis. Private households represent the largest food-waste faction. The main purpose of this study is to design and develop household dishes by using edible food surplus. The questionnaires were conducted to find the majority of food surplus from households, including carrot peel, pumpkin, fish skin, and soy dregs—this study designed and developed the household dishes by using the leftovers. We briefly discuss the contributions of the dishes. Mapping the household dishes deepens the promotion of household food waste prevention strategies. This study also linked the results with a set of policy, education, and restaurant business options

Keywords: food waste, food surplus, household dishes design, food waste prevention strategies

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Authors: William Coburn, Dylan Hauchard, Amel Naouali

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Background: The nature of the HIV epidemic in Puerto Rico (PR) is less understood than in the continental U.S. There is evidence to suggest that there are differences in health care access based on geographical location, such that rural areas are less underserved and have less immediate access to HIV prevention resources. Methods: The current study consists of a cross-sectional online survey of self-reporting HIV-negative sexual minority men (SMM) residing in PR. Results: In this sample, there were no differences between urban and rural-based services for SMM. However, more than half of the sample reported that they have never disclosed their gender identity and sexual practices to a physician. Conclusion: HIV is a significant public health concern affecting Latinos/Hispanics in the U.S. Findings in this paper can have implications for HIV prevention services in PR specifically, as few studies have directly focused on the impact of HIV and health care services in PR outside of the continental U.S.

Keywords: HIV, Puerto Rico, infectious diseases , public health

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Authors: M. A. Tayfun, M. A. Alkhalidi

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The exact theoretical expression describing the probability distribution of nonlinear sea-surface elevations derived from the second-order narrowband model has a cumbersome form that requires numerical computations, not well-disposed to theoretical or practical applications. Here, the same narrowband model is re-examined to develop a simpler closed-form approximation suitable for theoretical and practical applications. The salient features of the approximate form are explored, and its relative validity is verified with comparisons to other readily available approximations, and oceanic data.

Keywords: ocean waves, probability distributions, second-order nonlinearities, skewness coefficient, wave steepness

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Authors: Triyanto

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Radicalism poses a real threat to Indonesia's future. The target of radicalism is the youth of Indonesia. This is proven by the majority of terrorists are young people. Radicalization is not only a repressive act but also requires educational action. One of the educational efforts is civic education. This study discusses the prevention of radicalism for students through civic education and its constraints. This is qualitative research. Data were collected through literature studies, observations and in-depth interviews. Data were validated by triangulation. The sample of this research is 30 high school students in Surakarta. Data were analyzed by the interactive model of analysis from Miles & Huberman. The results show that (1) civic education can be a way of preventing student radicalism in schools in the form of cultivating the values of education through learning in the classroom and outside the classroom; (2) The obstacles encountered include the lack of learning facilities, the limited ability of teachers and the low attention of students to the civic education.

Keywords: prevention, radicalism, senior high school student, civic education

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Authors: Chinmayee Choudhury

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Human Melanocortin 4 Receptor (HMC4R) is one of the most potential drug targets for the treatment of obesity which controls the appetite. A deletion of the residues 88-92 in HMC4R is sometimes the cause of severe obesity in the humans. In this study, two homology models are constructed for the normal as well as mutated HMC4Rs and some phytochemicals present in Green Tea, Honey and Cinnamon have been docked to them to study their differential binding to the normal and mutated HMC4R as compared to the natural agonist α- MSH. Two homology models have been constructed for the normal as well as mutated HMC4Rs using the Modeller9v7. Some of the phytochemicals present in Green Tea, Honey, and Cinnamon, which have appetite suppressant activities are constructed, minimized and docked to these normal and mutated HMC4R models using ArgusLab 4.0.1. The mode of binding of the phytochemicals with the Normal and Mutated HMC4Rs have been compared. Further, the mode of binding of these phytochemicals with that of the natural agonist α- Melanocyte Stimulating Hormone(α-MSH) to both normal and mutated HMC4Rs have also been studied. It is observed that the phytochemicals Kaempherol, Epigallocatechin-3-gallate (EGCG) present in Green Tea and Honey, Isorhamnetin, Chlorogenic acid, Chrysin, Galangin, Pinocambrin present in Honey, Cinnamaldehyde, Cinnamyl acetate and Cinnamyl alcohol present in Cinnamon have capacity to form more stable complexes with the Mutated HMC4R as compared to α- MSH. So they may be potential agonists of HMC4R to suppress the appetite.

Keywords: HMC4R, α-MSH, docking, photochemical, appetite suppressant, homology modelling

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Authors: Yoshiaki Shikata

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A prioritized processor-sharing (PS) system with a maximum permissible sojourn time (MPST) is proposed. In this PS system, a higher-priority request is allocated a larger service ratio than a lower-priority request. Moreover, each request receiving service is guaranteed the maximum permissible sojourn time determined by each priority class, regardless of its service time. Arriving requests that cannot receive service due to this guarantee are rejected. We further propose a guarantee method for implementing such a system, and discuss performance evaluation procedures for the resulting system. Practical performance measures, such as the relationships between the loss probability or mean sojourn time of each class request and the maximum permissible sojourn time are evaluated via simulation. At the arrival of each class request, its acceptance or rejection is judged using extended sojourn times of all requests receiving service in the server. As the MPST increases, the mean sojourn time increases almost linearly. However, the logarithm of the loss probability decreases almost linearly. Moreover with an MPST, the difference in the mean sojourn time for different MPSTs increases with the traffic rate. Conversely, the difference in the loss probability for different MPSTs decreases as the traffic rate increases.

Keywords: prioritized processor sharing, priority ratio, permissible sojourn time, loss probability, mean sojourn time, simulation

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Authors: Jaeyoung Lee, Minji Je

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Objectives: In adolescence, adolescents are curious about sex, but sexual experience before becoming an adult can cause the risk of high probability of sexually transmitted infection. Therefore, it is very important to prevent sexually transmitted infections so that adolescents can grow in healthy and upright way. Adolescent females, especially, have sexual behavior distinguished from that of male adolescents. Protecting female adolescents’ reproductive health is even more important since it is directly related to the childbirth of the next generation. This study, thus, investigated the predictors of sexually transmitted infection in adolescent females with sexual experiences based on the National Health Statistics in Korea. Methods: This study was conducted based on the National Health Statistics in Korea. The 11th Korea Youth Behavior Web-based Survey in 2016 was conducted in the type of anonymous self-reported survey in order to find out the health behavior of adolescents. The target recruitment group was middle and high school students nationwide as of April 2016, and 65,528 students from a total of 800 middle and high schools participated. The study was conducted in 537 female high school students (Grades 10–12) among them. The collected data were analyzed as complex sampling design using SPSS statistics 22. The strata, cluster, weight, and finite population correction provided by Korea Center for Disease Control & Prevention (KCDC) were reflected to constitute complex sample design files, which were used in the statistical analysis. The analysis methods included Rao-Scott chi-square test, complex samples general linear model, and complex samples multiple logistic regression analysis. Results: Out of 537 female adolescents, 11.9% (53 adolescents) had experiences of venereal infection. The predictors for venereal infection of the subjects were ‘age at first intercourse’ and ‘sexual intercourse after drinking’. The sexually transmitted infection of the subjects was decreased by 0.31 times (p=.006, 95%CI=0.13-0.71) for middle school students and 0.13 times (p<.001, 95%CI=0.05-0.32) for high school students whereas the age of the first sexual experience was under elementary school age. In addition, the sexually transmitted infection of the subjects was 3.54 times (p < .001, 95%CI=1.76-7.14) increased when they have experience of sexual relation after drinking alcohol, compared to those without the experience of sexual relation after drinking alcohol. Conclusions: The female adolescents had high probability of sexually transmitted infection if their age for the first sexual experience was low. Therefore, the female adolescents who start sexual experience earlier shall have practical sex education appropriate for their developmental stage. In addition, since the sexually transmitted infection increases, if they have sexual relations after drinking alcohol, the consideration for prevention of alcohol use or intervention of sex education shall be required. When health education intervention is conducted for health promotion for female adolescents in the future, it is necessary to reflect the result of this study.

Keywords: adolescent, coitus, female, sexually transmitted diseases

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Authors: Nareshkumar Harale, B. B. Meshram

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The continued exponential growth of successful cyber intrusions against today’s businesses has made it abundantly clear that traditional perimeter security measures are no longer adequate and effective. We evolved the network trust architecture from trust-untrust to Zero-Trust, With Zero Trust, essential security capabilities are deployed in a way that provides policy enforcement and protection for all users, devices, applications, data resources, and the communications traffic between them, regardless of their location. Information exchange over the Internet, in spite of inclusion of advanced security controls, is always under innovative, inventive and prone to cyberattacks. TCP/IP protocol stack, the adapted standard for communication over network, suffers from inherent design vulnerabilities such as communication and session management protocols, routing protocols and security protocols are the major cause of major attacks. With the explosion of cyber security threats, such as viruses, worms, rootkits, malwares, Denial of Service attacks, accomplishing efficient and effective intrusion detection and prevention is become crucial and challenging too. In this paper, we propose a design and analysis model for next generation network intrusion detection and protection system as part of layered security strategy. The proposed system design provides intrusion detection for wide range of attacks with layered architecture and framework. The proposed network intrusion classification framework deals with cyberattacks on standard TCP/IP protocol, routing protocols and security protocols. It thereby forms the basis for detection of attack classes and applies signature based matching for known cyberattacks and data mining based machine learning approaches for unknown cyberattacks. Our proposed implemented software can effectively detect attacks even when malicious connections are hidden within normal events. The unsupervised learning algorithm applied to network audit data trails results in unknown intrusion detection. Association rule mining algorithms generate new rules from collected audit trail data resulting in increased intrusion prevention though integrated firewall systems. Intrusion response mechanisms can be initiated in real-time thereby minimizing the impact of network intrusions. Finally, we have shown that our approach can be validated and how the analysis results can be used for detecting and protection from the new network anomalies.

Keywords: network intrusion detection, network intrusion prevention, association rule mining, system analysis and design

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Authors: Mohd Asrul Affendi Bin Abdullah

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Sample size calculation is especially important for zero inflated models because a large sample size is required to detect a significant effect with this model. This paper verify how to present percentage of power approximation for categorical and then extended to zero inflated models. Wald test was chosen to determine power sample size of AIDS death rate because it is frequently used due to its approachability and its natural for several major recent contribution in sample size calculation for this test. Power calculation can be conducted when covariates are used in the modeling ‘excessing zero’ data and assist categorical covariate. Analysis of AIDS death rate study is used for this paper. Aims of this study to determine the power of sample size (N = 945) categorical death rate based on parameter estimate in the simulation of the study.

Keywords: power sample size, Wald test, standardize rate, ZINBDR

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Authors: Anne McCarthy, Anna Kim, Yin Song, Kyoo Jo, Donald Cropek, Sungmin Hong

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Corrosion prevention remains an indispensable concern across a spectrum of industries, demanding inventive and adaptable methodologies to effectively tackle the ever-evolving obstacles presented by corrosive surroundings. This abstract introduces a pioneering approach to corrosion prevention that amalgamates the distinct attributes of magneto-responsive polymers with finely adjustable hydrophobicity inspired by the structure of cicada wings, effectively deterring bacterial proliferation and biofilm formation. The proposed strategy entails the creation of an innovative array of magneto-responsive nanostructures endowed with the capacity to dynamically modulate their hydrophobic characteristics. This dynamic control over hydrophobicity facilitates active repulsion of water and corrosive agents on demand. Additionally, the cyclic motion generated by magnetic activation prevents the biofilms formation and rejection. Thus, the synergistic interplay between magneto-active nanostructures and hydrophobicity manipulation establishes a versatile defensive mechanism against diverse corrosive agents. This study introduces a novel method for corrosion prevention, harnessing the advantages of magneto-active nanostructures and the precision of hydrophobicity adjustment, resulting in water-repellency, effective biofilm removal, and offering a promising solution to handle corrosion-related challenges. We believe that the combined effect will significantly contribute to extending asset lifespan, improving safety, and reducing maintenance costs in the face of corrosion threats.

Keywords: magneto-active material, nanoimprinting, corrosion prevention, hydrophobicity

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Authors: Liudmila Shabalinskaya, Victor Golovanov, Liudmila Milinis, Sergey Loponos, Alexander Maslov, D. O. Frolov

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The work is devoted to the rapid laboratory diagnosis of the condition of aircraft friction units, based on the application of the nondestructive testing method by analyzing the parameters of wear particles, or tribodiagnostics. The most important task of tribodiagnostics is to develop recommendations for the selection of more advanced designs, materials and lubricants based on data on wear processes for increasing the life and ensuring the safety of the operation of machines and mechanisms. The object of tribodiagnostics in this work are the tooth gears of the central drive and the gearboxes of the gas turbine engine of the civil aviation PS-90A type, in which rolling friction and sliding friction with slip occur. The main criterion for evaluating the technical state of lubricated friction units of a gas turbine engine is the intensity and rate of wear of the friction surfaces of the friction unit parts. When the engine is running, oil samples are taken and the state of the friction surfaces is evaluated according to the parameters of the wear particles contained in the oil sample, which carry important and detailed information about the wear processes in the engine transmission units. The parameters carrying this information include the concentration of wear particles and metals in the oil, the dispersion composition, the shape, the size ratio and the number of particles, the state of their surfaces, the presence in the oil of various mechanical impurities of non-metallic origin. Such a morphological analysis of wear particles has been introduced into the order of monitoring the status and diagnostics of various aircraft engines, including a gas turbine engine, since the type of wear characteristic of the central drive and the drive box is surface fatigue wear and the beginning of its development, accompanied by the formation of microcracks, leads to the formation of spherical, up to 10 μm in size, and in the aftermath of flocculent particles measuring 20-200 μm in size. Tribodiagnostics using the morphological analysis of wear particles includes the following techniques: ferrography, filtering, and computer analysis of the classification and counting of wear particles. Based on the analysis of several series of oil samples taken from the drive box of the engine during their operating time, a study was carried out of the processes of wear kinetics. Based on the results of the study and comparing the series of criteria for tribodiagnostics, wear state ratings and statistics of the results of morphological analysis, norms for the normal operating regime were developed. The study allowed to develop levels of wear state for friction surfaces of gearing and a 10-point rating system for estimating the likelihood of the occurrence of an increased wear mode and, accordingly, prevention of engine failures in flight.

Keywords: aviation, box of drives, morphological analysis, tribodiagnostics, tribology, ferrography, filtering, wear particle

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Authors: Hyeon-Kyo Lim, Tong-Il Jang, Yong-Hee Lee

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For the past several decades, not a few researchers have warned that even a trivial human error may result in unexpected accidents, especially in Nuclear Power Plants. To prevent accidents in Nuclear Power Plants, it is quite indispensable to make any factors under the effective control that may raise the possibility of human errors for accident prevention. This study aimed to develop a risk management program, especially in the sense that guaranteeing Fitness-for-Duty (FFD) of human beings working in Nuclear Power Plants. Throughout a literal survey, it was found that work stress and fatigue are major psychophysical factors requiring sophisticated management. A set of major management factors related to work stress and fatigue was through repetitive literal surveys and classified into several categories. To maintain the fitness of human workers, a 4-level – individual worker, team, staff within plants, and external professional - approach was adopted for FFD management program. Moreover, the program was arranged to envelop the whole employment cycle from selection and screening of workers, job allocation, and job rotation. Also, a managerial care program was introduced for employee assistance based on the concept of Employee Assistance Program (EAP). The developed program was reviewed with repetition by ex-operators in nuclear power plants, and assessed in the affirmative. As a whole, responses implied additional treatment to guarantee high performance of human workers not only in normal operations but also in emergency situations. Consequently, the program is under administrative modification for practical application.

Keywords: fitness-for-duty (FFD), human error, work stress, fatigue, Employee-Assistance-Program (EAP)

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Authors: A. Kourou, A. Ioakeimidou, V. Avramea

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Planning for natural disasters and emergencies is something every school or educational institution must consider, regardless of its size or location. Preparedness is the key to save lives if a disaster strikes. School disaster management mirrors individual and family disaster prevention, and wider community disaster prevention efforts. This paper presents the usage of E-PreS System as a helpful, managerial tool during the school earthquake drill, in order to support schools in developing effective disaster and emergency plans specific to their local needs. The project comes up with a holistic methodology using real-time evaluation involving different categories of actors, districts, steps and metrics. The main outcomes of E-PreS project are the development of E-PreS web platform that host the needed data of school emergency planning; the development of E-PreS System; the implementation of disaster drills using E-PreS System in educational premises and local schools; and the evaluation of E-PreS System. Taking into consideration that every disaster drill aims to test and valid school plan and procedures; clarify and train personnel in roles and responsibilities; improve interagency coordination; identify gaps in resources; improve individual performance; and identify opportunities for improvement, E-PreS Project was submitted and approved by the European Commission (EC).

Keywords: disaster drills, earthquake preparedness, E-PreS System, school emergency plans

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Authors: Yusef Karimi, Masoomeh Esmaeily, Razgar Mohammadi

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Following the events of September 11th, one of the most important concerns of governments, politicians and, researchers has been to answer the question that why does an ordinary person become fundamentalism? One of the major controversies in past researches was about as to whether a fundamentalist person is normal or abnormal. In this regard, the purpose of this research is to investigate whether a Salafi-jihadi individual is normal or abnormal. The participants included 6 Jihadi Salafism individuals who were living in the Middle East and had been purposefully selected. This research is a qualitative study which examines these people′s retrospective experience of their lives. The data were collected through collaborative observation and interview. This continued till data saturation. Unlike the introduced concepts of fundamentalist personality in the previous studies such as self-fascination, aggression, paranoid personality and psychopathic, participants in this study had no abnormal symptoms of mental disorders. Hence, in the context of recognizing the fundamentalist personality, we must seek other personality and positional variables.

Keywords: abnormal, fundamentalism, normal, personality, Salafi

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Authors: Ashish Dhamaniya, Satish Chandra

Abstract:

Speed and traffic volume data are collected on different sections of four lane and six lane roads in three metropolitan cities in India. Speed data are analyzed to fit the statistical distribution to individual vehicle speed data and all vehicles speed data. It is noted that speed data of individual vehicle generally follows a normal distribution but speed data of all vehicle combined at a section of urban road may or may not follow the normal distribution depending upon the composition of traffic stream. A new term Speed Spread Ratio (SSR) is introduced in this paper which is the ratio of difference in 85^th and 50^th percentile speed to the difference in 50^th and 15^th percentile speed. If SSR is unity then speed data are truly normally distributed. It is noted that on six lane urban roads, speed data follow a normal distribution only when SSR is in the range of 0.86 – 1.11. The range of SSR is validated on four lane roads also.

Keywords: normal distribution, percentile speed, speed spread ratio, traffic volume

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Authors: Pegah Farshadmanesh, Jamshid Mohammadi, Mehdi Modares

Abstract:

In nearly all earthquakes of the past century that resulted in moderate to significant damage, the occurrence of postearthquake fire ignition (PEFI) has imposed a serious hazard and caused severe damage, especially in urban areas. In order to reduce the loss of life and property caused by post-earthquake fires, there is a crucial need for predictive models to estimate the PEFI risk. The parameters affecting PEFI risk can be categorized as: 1) factors influencing fire ignition in normal (non-earthquake) condition, including floor area, building category, ignitability, type of appliance, and prevention devices, and 2) earthquake related factors contributing to the PEFI risk, including building vulnerability and earthquake characteristics such as intensity, peak ground acceleration, and peak ground velocity. State-of-the-art statistical PEFI risk models are solely based on limited available earthquake data, and therefore they cannot predict the PEFI risk for areas with insufficient earthquake records since such records are needed in estimating the PEFI model parameters. In this paper, the correlation between normal condition ignition risk, peak ground acceleration, and PEFI risk is examined in an effort to offer a means for predicting post-earthquake ignition events. An illustrative example is presented to demonstrate how such correlation can be employed in a seismic area to predict PEFI hazard.

Keywords: fire risk, post-earthquake fire ignition (PEFI), risk management, seismicity

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Authors: Jiraporn Weenuttranon

Abstract:

The objectives of the consumer behavior of bakery products in Bangkok are to study consumer behavior of the bakery product, to study the essential factors that could possibly affect the consumer behavior and to study recommendations for the development of the bakery products. This research is a survey research. Populations are buyer’s bakery products in Bangkok. The probability sample size is 400. The research uses a questionnaire for self-learning by using information technology. The researcher created a reliability value at 0.71 levels of significance. The data analysis will be done by using the percentage, mean, and standard deviation and testing the hypotheses by using chi-square.

Keywords: consumer, behavior, bakery, standard deviation

Procedia PDF Downloads 447

Authors: Zviad Ghadua, Biswa Bhattacharya

Abstract:

The Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) provides the rainfall amount of a given duration necessary to cause flooding. The approach is based on the development of rainfall-runoff curves, which helps us to find out the rainfall amount that would cause flooding. An alternative approach, mostly experimented with Italian Alpine catchments, is based on determining threshold discharges from past events and on finding whether or not an oncoming flood has its magnitude more than some critical discharge thresholds found beforehand. Both approaches suffer from large uncertainties in forecasting flash floods as, due to the simplistic approach followed, the same rainfall amount may or may not cause flooding. This uncertainty leads to the question whether a probabilistic model is preferable over a deterministic one in forecasting flash floods. We propose the use of a Bayesian probabilistic approach in flash flood forecasting. A prior probability of flooding is derived based on historical data. Additional information, such as antecedent moisture condition (AMC) and rainfall amount over any rainfall thresholds are used in computing the likelihood of observing these conditions given a flash flood has occurred. Finally, the posterior probability of flooding is computed using the prior probability and the likelihood. The variation of the computed posterior probability with rainfall amount and AMC presents the suitability of the approach in decision making in an uncertain environment. The methodology has been applied to the Posina basin in Italy. From the promising results obtained, we can conclude that the Bayesian approach in flash flood forecasting provides more realistic forecasting over the FFG.

Keywords: flash flood, Bayesian, flash flood guidance, FFG, forecasting, Posina

Procedia PDF Downloads 106

Authors: Nyimas Annissa Mutiara Andini

Abstract:

Every year, children develop hydrocephalus during the first year of life. If it is not treated, hydrocephalus can lead to brain damage, a loss in mental and physical abilities, and even death. To be treated, first, we have to do a proper diagnosis using some examinations especially to detect hydrocephalus earlier. One of the examination that could be done is using a head circumference measurement. Increased head circumference is a first and main sign of hydrocephalus, especially in infant (0-1 year age). Head circumference is a measurement of a child's head largest area. In this measurement, we want to get the distance from above the eyebrows and ears and around the back of the head using a measurement tape. If the head circumference of an infant is larger than normal, this infant might potentially suffer hydrocephalus. If early diagnosis and timely treatment of hydrocephalus could be done most children can recover successfully. There are some problems with early detection of hydrocephalus using regular tape for head circumference measurement. One of the problem is the infant’s comfort. We need to make the infant feel comfort along the head circumference measurement to get a proper result of the examination. For that, we can use a helpful stuff, like a hat. This paper is aimed to describe the possibility of using a head circumference measuring instrument for early detection of hydrocephalus in an infant with a mike hat, coloured-tape-in-hat. In the first life, infants’ head size is about 35 centimeters. First three months after that infants will gain 2 centimeters each month. The second three months, infant’s head circumference will increase 1 cm each month. And for the six months later, the rate is 0.5 cm per month, and end up with an average of 47 centimeters. This formula is compared to the WHO’s head circumference growth chart. The shape of this tape-in-hat is alike an upper arm measurement. This tape-in-hat diameter is about 47 centimeters. It contains twelve different colours range by age. If it is out of the normal colour, the infant potentially suffers hydrocephalus. This examination should be done monthly. If in two times of measurement there still in the same range abnormal of head circumference, or a rapid growth of the head circumference size, the infant should be referred to a pediatrician. There are the pink hat for girls and blue hat for boys. Based on this paper, we know that this measurement can be used to help early detection of hydrocephalus in an infant.

Keywords: head circumference, hydrocephalus, infant, mike hat

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Authors: M. Nili, S. Tavasoli, A. R. Yazdandoost

Abstract:

In this paper, an experimental investigation on the effect of Isfahan Ground Granulate Blast Furnace Slag (GGBS) on the compressive strength development of self-consolidating concrete (SCC) and normal concrete (NC) was performed. For this purpose, Portland cement type I was replaced with GGBS in various Portions. For NC and SCC Mixes, 10*10*10 cubic cm specimens were tested in 7, 28 and 91 days. It must be stated that in this research water to cement ratio was 0.44, cement used in cubic meter was 418 Kg/m³ and Superplasticizer (SP) Type III used in SCC based on Poly-Carboxylic acid. The results of experiments have shown that increasing GGBS Percentages in both types of concrete reduce Compressive strength in early ages.

Keywords: compressive strength, GGBS, normal concrete, self-consolidating concrete

Procedia PDF Downloads 402

Authors: Francis Mugabi, Kevin Duffy, Joseph J. Y. T Mugisha, Obiora Collins

Abstract:

Bluetongue virus (BTV) has 27 serotypes, with some of them coexisting in patchy (different) environments, which make its control difficult. Wind-aided midge movement is a known mechanism in the spread of BTV. However, its effects on the probability of coexistence of multiple BTV serotypes are not clear. Deterministic and stochastic models for r BTV serotypes in n discrete patches connected by midge and/or cattle movement are formulated and analyzed. For the deterministic model without midge and cattle movement, using the comparison principle, it is shown that if the patch reproduction number R0 < 1, i=1,2,...,n, j=1,2,...,r, all serotypes go extinct. If R^j_i0>1, competitive exclusion takes place. Using numerical simulations, it is shown that when the n patches are connected by midge movement, coexistence takes place. To account for demographic and movement variability, the deterministic model is transformed into a continuous-time Markov chain stochastic model. Utilizing a multitype branching process, it is shown that the midge movement can have a large effect on the probability of coexistence of multiple BTV serotypes. The probability of coexistence can be brought to zero when the control interventions that directly kill the adult midges are applied. These results indicate the significance of wind-aided midge movement and vector control interventions on the coexistence and control of multiple BTV serotypes in patchy environments.

Keywords: bluetongue virus, coexistence, multiple serotypes, midge movement, branching process

Procedia PDF Downloads 118