Search results for: monthly rainfall

Authors: Rahila Yilangai, Sonali Saha, Amartya Saha, Augustine Ezealor

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Gallery forests in sub-Saharan Africa are drastically disappearing due to intensive anthropogenic activities thus reducing ecosystem services, one of which is water provisioning. The role played by forest cover in regulating streamflow and water yield is not well understood, especially in West Africa. This pioneering 2-year study investigated the interrelationships between plant cover and hydrology in protected and unprotected gallery forests. Rainfall, streamflow, and evapotranspiration (ET) measurements/estimates over 2015-2016 were obtained to form a water balance for both catchments. In addition, transpiration in the protected gallery forest with high vegetation cover was calculated from stomatal conductance readings of selected species chosen from plot level data of plant diversity and abundance. Results showed that annual streamflow was significantly higher in the unprotected site than the protected site, even when normalized by catchment area. However, streamflow commenced earlier and lasted longer in the protected site than the degraded unprotected site, suggesting regulation by the greater tree density in the protected site. Streamflow correlated strongly with rainfall with the highest peak in August. As expected, transpiration measurements were less than potential evapotranspiration estimates, while rainfall exceeded ET in the water cycle. The water balance partitioning suggests that the lower vegetation cover in the unprotected catchment leads to a larger runoff in the rainy season and less infiltration, thereby leading to streams drying up earlier, than in the protected catchment. This baseline information is important in understanding the contribution of plants in water cycle regulation, for modeling integrative water management in applied research and natural resource management in sustaining water resources with changing the land cover and climate uncertainties in this data-poor region.

Keywords: evapotranspiration, gallery forest, rainfall, streamflow, transpiration

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Authors: M. R. Bhuiyan, S. M. M. Hossain, M. Z. Islam

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Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) is the fastest growing serious developmental disorder characterized by social deficits, communicative difficulties, and repetitive behaviors. ASD is an emerging public health issue globally which is associated with huge financial burden to the family, community and the nation. The aim of this study was to assess the financial burden of family for the children with Autism spectrum Disorder. This cross-sectional study was carried out from July 2015 to June 2016 among 154 children with ASD to assess the financial burden of family. Data were collected by face-to-face interview with semi-structured questionnaire following systematic random sampling technique. Majority (73.4%) children were male and mean (±SD) age was 6.66 ± 2.97 years. Most (88.8%) of the children were from urban areas with average monthly family income Tk. 41785.71±23936.45. Average monthly direct cost of the children was Tk.17656.49 ± 9984.35, while indirect cost was Tk. 13462.90 ± 9713.54 and total treatment cost was Tk. 23076.62 ± 15341.09. Special education cost (Tk. 4871.00), cost of therapy (Tk. 4124.07) and travel cost (Tk. 3988.31) were the major types of direct cost, while loss of income (Tk.14570.18) was the chief indirect cost incurred by the families. The study found that majority (59.8%) of the children attended special schools were incurred Tk.20001-78700 as total treatment cost, which were statistically significant (p<0.001). Again, families with higher monthly family income incurred higher treatment cost (r=0.526, p<0.05). Difference between mean direct and indirect cost was found significant (t=4.190, df=61, p<0.001). According to the analysis of variance, mean difference of father’s educational status among direct cost (F=10.337, p<0.001) and total treatment cost (F=7.841, p<0.001), which were statistically significant. The study revealed that maximum children with ASD were under five years, three-fourth were male. According to monthly family income, maximum family were in middle class. The study recommends cost effective interventions and financial safety-net measures to reduce the financial burden of families for the children with ASD.

Keywords: autism spectrum disorder, financial burden, direct cost, indirect cost, special education

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Authors: Saeed Jahanbakhsh Asl, Yaghob Dinpazhoh, Masoumeh Foroughi

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Reference evapotranspiration (ET₀) is an important element in the water cycle that integrates atmospheric demands and surface conditions, and analysis of changes in ET₀ is of great significance for understanding climate change and its impacts on hydrology. As ET₀ is an integrated effect of climate variables, increases in air temperature should lead to increases in ET₀. ET₀ estimated by using the globally accepted Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Penman-Monteith (FAO-56 PM) method in 18 meteorological stations located in the West of Iran. The trends of ET₀ detected by using the Mann-Kendall (MK) test. The slopes of the trend lines were computed by using the Sen’s slope estimator. The results showed significant increasing as well as decreasing trends in the annual and monthly ET₀. However, ET₀ trends were increasing. In the monthly scale, the number of the increasing trends was more than the number of decreasing trends, in the majority of warm months of the year.

Keywords: climate change, Mann–Kendall, Penman-Monteith method (FAO-56 PM), reference crop evapotranspiration

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Authors: Abdoulahad Allamine

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The objective of this study is to assess the impact of climate variability on agriculture and food security in 43 countries of sub-Saharan Africa. We use for this purpose the data from BADC bases, UNCTAD, and WDI FAOSTAT to estimate a VAR model on panel data. The sample is divided into three (03) agro-climatic zones, more explicitly the equatorial zone, the Sahel region and the semi-arid zone. This allows to highlight the differential impacts sustained by countries and appropriate responses to each group of countries. The results show that the sharp fluctuations in the volume of rainfall negatively affect agriculture and food security of countries in the equatorial zone, with heavy rainfall and high temperatures in the Sahel region. However, countries with low temperatures and low rainfall are the least affected. The hedging policies against the risks of climate variability must be more active in the first two groups of countries. On this basis and in general, we recommend integration of agricultural policies between countries is done to reduce the effects of climate variability on agriculture and food security. It would be logical to encourage regional and international closer collaboration on the development and dissemination of improved varieties, ecological intensification, and management of biotic and abiotic stresses facing these climate variability to sustainably increase food production. Small farmers also need training in agricultural risk hedging techniques related to climate variations; this requires an increase in state budgets allocated to agriculture.

Keywords: agro-climatic zones, climate variability, food security, Sub-Saharan Africa, VAR on panel data

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Authors: Neetu Tyagi, Sumit Sharma

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The study illustrates the results of an integrated study done on Tangni landslide located on NH-58 at Chamoli, Uttarakhand. Geological, geo-morphological and geotechnical investigations were carried out to understand the mechanism of landslide and to plan further investigation and monitoring. At any rate, the movements were favored by continuous rainfall water infiltration from the zones where the phyllites/slates and Dolomites outcrop. The site investigations were carried out including the monitoring of landslide movements and of the water level fluctuations due to rainfall give us a better understanding of landslide dynamics that have been causing in time soil instability at Tangni landslide site. The Early Warning System (EWS) installed different types of sensors and all sensors were directly connected to data logger and raw data transfer to the Defence Terrain Research Laboratory (DTRL) server room with the help of File Transfer Protocol (FTP). The slip surfaces were found at depths ranging from 8 to 10 m from Geophysical survey and hence sensors were installed to the depth of 15m at various locations of landslide. Rainfall is the main triggering factor of landslide. In this study, the developed model of unsaturated soil slope stability is carried out. The analysis of sensors data available for one year, indicated the sliding surface of landslide at depth between 6 to 12m with total displacement up to 6cm per year recorded at the body of landslide. The aim of this study is to set the threshold and generate early warning. Local peoples already alert towards landslide, if they have any types of warning system.

Keywords: early warning system, file transfer protocol, geo-morphological, geotechnical, landslide

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Authors: Mohamed Emran, Giovanni Pardini, Maria Gispert, Mohamed Rashad

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Land use and abandonment in semi-arid degraded ecosystems may cause regressive dynamics in vegetation cover affecting organic matter contents, soil nutrients and structural stability, thus reducing soil resistance to erosion. Mediterranean areas are generally subjected to climatic fluctuations, which modify soil conditions and hydrological processes, such as runoff and water infiltration within the upper soil horizons. Low erosion rates occur in very fragile and shallow soils with minor clay content progressively decrease organic carbon C and nitrogen N pools in the upper soil horizons. Seven soils were selected representing variant context of land use and abandonment at the Cap de Creus Peninsula, Catalonia, NE Spain, from recent cultivated vines and olive groves, mid abandoned forests standing under cork and pine trees, pasture to late abandoned Cistus and Erica scrubs. The aim of this work was to study the effect of changes in land use and abandonment on the depletion of soil organic carbon and nitrogen transported by runoff water in shallow soils after natural rainfall events during two years with different rainfall patterns (1st year with low rainfall and 2nd year with high rainfall) by i) monitoring the most significant soil erosion parameters at recorded rainfall events, ii) studying the most relevant soil physical and chemical characteristics on seasonal basis and iii) analysing the seasonal trends of depleted carbon and nitrogen and their interaction with soil surface compaction parameters. Significant seasonal variability was observed in the relevant soil physical and chemical parameters and soil erosion parameters in all soils to establish their evolution under land use and abandonment during two years of different rainfall patterns (214 and 487 mm per year), giving important indications on soil response to rainfall impacts. Erosion rates decreased significantly with the increasing of soil C and N under low and high rainfall. In cultivated soils, C and N depletion increased by 144% and 115%, respectively by 13% increase in erosion rates during the 1st year with respect to the 2nd year. Depleted C and N were proportionally higher in soils under vines and olive with vulnerable soil structure and low soil resilience leading to degradation, altering nutrients cycles and causing adverse impact on environmental quality. Statistical analysis underlined that, during the 1st year, soil surface was less effective in preserving stocks of organic resources leading to higher susceptibility to erosion with consequent C and N depletion. During the 2nd year, higher organic reserve and water storage occurred despite the increasing of C and N loss with an effective contribution from soil surface compaction parameters. The overall estimation during the two years indicated clear differences among soils under vines, olive, cork and pines, suggesting on the one hand, that current cultivation practices are inappropriate and that reforestation with pines may delay the achievement of better soil conditions. On the other hand, the natural succession of vegetation under Cistus, pasture and Erica suggests the recovery of good soil conditions.

Keywords: land abandonment, land use, nutrient's depletion, soil erosion

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Authors: Odejayi Adedayo Olugbenga, Aina Adebisi

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Weather variables (rainfall and temperature) affect the diversity and abundance of both fauna and flora species. This study compared the weather variables with spider abundance in two ecological zones of Ogun State, Nigeria namely Ago-iwoye (Rainforest) in the Ijebu axis and Aiyetoro (Derived Savannah) in the Yewa axis. Seven study sites chosen by Simple Random Sampling in each ecosystem were used for the study. In each sampling area, a 60 m x 120 m land area was marked and sampled, spider collection techniques were; hand picking, use of sweep netting, and Pitfall trap. Adult spiders were identified to the species level. Species richness was estimated by a non-parametric species estimator while the diversity of spider species was assessed by Simpson Diversity Index and Species Richness by One-way Analysis of Variance. Results revealed that spiders were more abundant in rainforest zones than in derived savannah ecosystems. However, the pattern of spider abundance in rainforest zone and residential areas were similar. During high temperatures, the activities of spiders tended to increase according to this study. In contrast, results showed that there was a negative correlation between rainfall and spider species abundance in addition to a negative and weak correlation between rainfall and species richness. It was concluded that heavy downpour has lethal effects on both immature and sometimes matured spiders, which could lead to the extinction of some unknown species of spiders. Tree planting should be encouraged, as this shelters the spider.

Keywords: spider, abundance, species richness, species diversity

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Authors: Nitin Bhagat

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Drought is a global phenomenon. It has a huge impact on agriculture and allied sector activities. Agriculture plays a substantial role in the economy of developing countries, which mainly depends on rainfall. The present study illustrates the drought conditions in Masurdi village of Latur district in the Marathwada region, Maharashtra. This paper is based on both primary as well as secondary data sources. The multistage sample method was used for primary data collection. The 100 households sample survey data has been collected from the village through a semi-structured questionnaire. The crop production data is collected from the Department of Agriculture, Government of Maharashtra. The rainfall data is obtained from the Department of Revenue, Office of Divisional Commissioner, Aurangabad for the period from 1988 to 2018. This paper examines the severity of drought consequences of the 2015 drought on domestic water supply, crop production, and the effect on children's schooling, livestock assets, bank credit, and migration. The study also analyzed climate variables' impact on the Latur district's total food grain production for 19 years from 2000 to 2018. This study applied multiple regression analysis to check the relationship between climatic variables and the Latur district's total food grain production. The climate variables are annual rainfall, maximum temperature and minimum temperature. The study considered that climatic variables are independent variables and total food grain as the dependent variable. It shows there is a significant relationship between rainfall and maximum temperature. The study also calculated rainfall deviations to find out the drought and normal years. According to drought manual 2016, the rainfall deviation calculated using the following formula. RF dev = {(RFi – RFn) / RFn}*100.Approximately 27.43 % of the workforce migrated from rural to urban areas for searching jobs, and crop production decreased tremendously due to inadequate rainfall in the drought year 2015. Many farm and non-farm labor, some marginal and small cultivators, migrated from rural to urban areas (like Pune, Mumbai, and Western Maharashtra).About 48 % of the households' children faced education difficulties; in the drought period, children were not going to school. They left their school and joined to bring water with their mother and fathers, sometimes they fetched water on their head or using a bicycle, near about 2 km from the village. In their school-going days, drinking water was not available in their schools, so the government declared holidays early in the academic education year 2015-16 compared to another academic year. Some college and 10th class students left their education due to financial problems. Many households benefited from state government schemes, like drought subsidies, crop insurance, and bank loans. Out of 100 households, about 50 (50 %) have obtained financial support from the state government’s subsidy scheme, 58 ( 58 %) have got crop insurance, and 41(41 %) irrigated households have got bank loans from national banks; besides that, only two families have obtained loans from their relatives and moneylenders.

Keywords: agriculture, drought, household, rainfall

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Authors: Mpaphi Major

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Soil erosion is becoming an important aspect of land degradation. Therefore it is of great consideration to note any factor that may escalate the rate of soil erosion in our arable land. There exist 3 main driving forces in soil erosion which are rainfall, wind and land use of which in this project only rainfall and land use will be looked at. With the increase in world population at an alarming rate, the demand for food production is expected to increase which will in turn lead to more land being converted from forests to agricultural use of which very few of it are now fertile. In our country Botswana, the rate of crop production is decreasing due to the wearing away of the fertile top soil and poor arable land management. As a result, some studies on the rate of soil loss and farm management practices should be conducted so that best soil and water conservation practices should be employed and hence reduce the risk of soil loss and increase the rate of crop production and yield. The Soil loss estimation model for Southern Africa (SLEMSA) will be used to estimate the rate of soil loss in some selected arable farms within the Palapye watershed and some field observations will be made to determine the management practices used and their impact on the arable land. Upon observations it have been found that many arable fields have been exposed to soil erosion, of which the affected parts are no longer suitable for any crop production unless the land areas are modified. Improper land practices such as ploughing along the slope and land cultivation practices were observed. As a result farmers need to be educated on best conservation practices that can be used to manage their arable land hence reduced risk of soil erosion and improved crop production.

Keywords: soil and water conservation, soil erosion, SLEMSA, land degradation

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Authors: M. A. Hernández-Ceballos, M. Marín-Ferrer, G. Cinelli, L. De Felice, T. Tollefsen, E. Nweke, P. V. Tognoli, S. Vanzo, M. De Cort

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This study analyses the latitudinal impact of the spatial and temporal distribution on the cosmogenic isotope 7Be in surface air along Europe. The long-term database of the 6 sampling sites (Ivalo, Helsinki, Berlin, Freiburg, Sevilla and La Laguna), that regularly provide data to the Radioactivity Environmental Monitoring (REM) network managed by the Joint Research Centre (JRC) in Ispra, were used. The selection of the stations was performed attending to different factors, such as 1) heterogeneity in terms of latitude and altitude, and 2) long database coverage. The combination of these two parameters ensures a high degree of representativeness of the results. In the later, the temporal coverage varies between stations, being used in the present study sampling stations with a database more or less continuously from 1984 to 2011. The mean values of 7Be activity concentration presented a spatial distribution value ranging from 2.0 ± 0.9 mBq/m3 (Ivalo, north) to 4.8 ± 1.5 mBq/m3 (La Laguna, south). An increasing gradient with latitude was observed from the north to the south, 0.06 mBq/m3. However, there was no correlation with altitude, since all stations are sited within the atmospheric boundary layer. The analyses of the data indicated a dynamic range of 7Be activity for solar cycle and phase (maximum or minimum), having been observed different impact on stations according to their location. The results indicated a significant seasonal behavior, with the maximum concentrations occurring in the summer and minimum in the winter, although with differences in the values reached and in the month registered. Due to the large heterogeneity in the temporal pattern with which the individual radionuclide analyses were performed in each station, the 7Be monthly index was calculated to normalize the measurements and perform the direct comparison of monthly evolution among stations. Different intensity and evolution of the mean monthly index were observed. The knowledge of the spatial and temporal distribution of this natural radionuclide in the atmosphere is a key parameter for modeling studies of atmospheric processes, which are important phenomena to be taken into account in the case of a nuclear accident.

Keywords: Berilium-7, latitudinal impact in Europe, seasonal and monthly variability, solar cycle

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Authors: Nien-Ming Hong, Kuei-Fang Huang

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Climate change is an important issue in future, which seriously affects water resources for a long term planning and management. Flood assessment is highly related with climate and land use. Increasing rainfall and urbanization will induce the inundated area in future. For adapting the impacts of climate change, a land use planning is a good strategy for reducing flood damage. The study is to build a trade-off process with different land use types. The Ta-Liao watershed is the study area with three types of land uses that are build-up, farm and forest. The build-up area is concentrated in the downstream of the watershed. Different rainfall amounts are applied for assessing the land use in 1996, 2005 and 2013. The adapted strategies are based on retarding the development of urban and a trade-off process. When a land changes from farm area to built-up area in downstream, this study is to search for a farm area and change it to forest/grass area or building a retention area in the upstream. For assessing the effects of the strategy, the inundation area is simulated by the Flo-2D model with different rainfall conditions and land uses. The results show inundation maps of several cases with land use change planning. The results also show the trade-off strategies and retention areas can decrease the inundated area and divide the inundated area, which are better than retarding urban development. The land use change is usually non-reverse and the planning should be constructed before the climate change.

Keywords: climate change, land use change, flood risk assessment, land use planning

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Authors: Shotiros Protong

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The incidents of sudden landslides in Thailand during the past decade have occurred frequently and more severely. It is necessary to focus on the principal parameters used for analysis such as land cover land use, rainfall values, characteristic of soil and digital elevation model (DEM). The combination of intense rainfall and severe monsoons is increasing due to global climate change. Landslide occurrences rapidly increase during intense rainfall especially in the rainy season in Thailand which usually starts around mid-May and ends in the middle of October. The rain-triggered landslide hazard analysis is the focus of this research. The combination of geotechnical and hydrological data are used to determine permeability, conductivity, bedding orientation, overburden and presence of loose blocks. The regional landslide hazard mapping is developed using the Slope Stability Index SINMAP model supported on Arc GIS software version 10.1. Geological and land use data are used to define the probability of landslide occurrences in terms of geotechnical data. The geological data can indicate the shear strength and the angle of friction values for soils above given rock types, which leads to the general applicability of the approach for landslide hazard analysis. To address the research objectives, the methods are described in this study: setup and calibration of the SINMAP model, sensitivity of the SINMAP model, geotechnical laboratory, landslide assessment at present calibration and landslide assessment under future climate simulation scenario A2 and B2. In terms of hydrological data, the millimetres/twenty-four hours of average rainfall data are used to assess the rain triggered landslide hazard analysis in slope stability mapping. During 1954-2012 period, is used for the baseline of rainfall data at the present calibration. The climate change in Thailand, the future of climate scenarios are simulated by spatial and temporal scales. The precipitation impact is need to predict for the climate future, Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) version 4.2, is used to assess the simulation scenario of future change between latitude 16o 26’ and 18o 37’ north and between longitude 98o 52’ and 103o 05’ east by SDSM software. The research allows the mapping of risk parameters for landslide dynamics, and indicates the spatial and time trends of landslide occurrences. Thus, regional landslide hazard mapping under present-day climatic conditions from 1954 to 2012 and simulations of climate change based on GCM scenarios A2 and B2 from 2013 to 2099 related to the threshold rainfall values for the selected the study area in Uttaradit province in the northern part of Thailand. Finally, the landslide hazard mapping will be compared and shown by areas (km2 ) in both the present and the future under climate simulation scenarios A2 and B2 in Uttaradit province.

Keywords: landslide hazard, GIS, slope stability index (SINMAP), landslides, Thailand

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Authors: Kang Won Lee, Jung Won Lee

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Characterizing the network flow is of fundamental importance to understand the complex dynamics of networks. And passenger flow characteristics of the subway network are very relevant for an effective transportation management in urban cities. In this study, passenger flow of Seoul metropolitan subway network is investigated and characterized through statistical analysis. Traditional betweenness centrality measure considers only topological structure of the network and ignores the transportation factors. This paper proposes a weighted betweenness centrality measure that incorporates monthly passenger flow volume. We apply the proposed measure on the Seoul metropolitan subway network involving 493 stations and 16 lines. Several interesting insights about the network are derived from the new measures. Using Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, we also find out that monthly passenger flow between any two stations follows a power-law distribution and other traffic characteristics such as congestion level and throughflow traffic follow exponential distribution.

Keywords: betweenness centrality, correlation coefficient, power-law distribution, Korea traffic DB

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Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi, Abdolrasoul Telvari, Hossein Babazadeh

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Rainfall and runoff phenomenon is a chaotic and complex outcome of nature which requires sophisticated modelling and simulation methods for explanation and use. Time Series modelling allows runoff data analysis and can be used as forecasting tool. In the paper attempt is made to model river runoff data and predict the future behavioural pattern of river based on annual past observations of annual river runoff. The river runoff analysis and predict are done using ARIMA model. For evaluating the efficiency of prediction to hydrological events such as rainfall, runoff and etc., we use the statistical formulae applicable. The good agreement between predicted and observation river runoff coefficient of determination (R²) display that the ARIMA (4,1,1) is the suitable model for predicting Karkheh River runoff at Iran.

Keywords: time series modelling, ARIMA model, river runoff, Karkheh River, CLS method

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Authors: Amir Hamzeh Haghiabi

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Water resource management is of global significance as it plays a key role in the socioeconomic development of all nations. On account of the fact that Iran is situated in a highly pressurized belt in the world, precipitation is limited, so that the average annual precipitation in the country is about 250 mm, only about one third to one quarter of the world average for rainfall. Karkheh basin is located in the semiarid and arid regions of Western Iran, an area with severe water scarcity. 70 % of rainfall is directly evaporated. The potential annual evaporation of the southern and northern regions is 3,600 mm 1,800 mm, respectively. In this paper, Some aspects of water resources management for this region, the specifications of the Karkheh reservoir dam & hydroelectric power plant as the biggest dam in history of Iran with total volume of reservoir 7.3 Bm3 are illustrated. Also the situation of water availability in the basin, surface and groundwater potential are considered.

Keywords: Iran, water availability, water resources, Zagros

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Authors: Mohd Khairul Bazli Mohd Aziz, Fadhilah Yusof, Zulkifli Yusop, Zalina Mohd Daud, Mohammad Afif Kasno

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Recent developed rainfall network design techniques have been discussed and compared by many researchers worldwide due to the demand of acquiring higher levels of accuracy from collected data. In many studies, rain-gauge networks are designed to provide good estimation for areal rainfall and for flood modelling and prediction. In a certain study, even using lumped models for flood forecasting, a proper gauge network can significantly improve the results. Therefore existing rainfall network in Johor must be optimized and redesigned in order to meet the required level of accuracy preset by rainfall data users. The well-known geostatistics method (variance-reduction method) that is combined with simulated annealing was used as an algorithm of optimization in this study to obtain the optimal number and locations of the rain gauges. Rain gauge network structure is not only dependent on the station density; station location also plays an important role in determining whether information is acquired accurately. The existing network of 84 rain gauges in Johor is optimized and redesigned by using rainfall, humidity, solar radiation, temperature and wind speed data during monsoon season (November – February) for the period of 1975 – 2008. Three different semivariogram models which are Spherical, Gaussian and Exponential were used and their performances were also compared in this study. Cross validation technique was applied to compute the errors and the result showed that exponential model is the best semivariogram. It was found that the proposed method was satisfied by a network of 64 rain gauges with the minimum estimated variance and 20 of the existing ones were removed and relocated. An existing network may consist of redundant stations that may make little or no contribution to the network performance for providing quality data. Therefore, two different cases were considered in this study. The first case considered the removed stations that were optimally relocated into new locations to investigate their influence in the calculated estimated variance and the second case explored the possibility to relocate all 84 existing stations into new locations to determine the optimal position. The relocations of the stations in both cases have shown that the new optimal locations have managed to reduce the estimated variance and it has proven that locations played an important role in determining the optimal network.

Keywords: geostatistics, simulated annealing, semivariogram, optimization

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Authors: Tin Thongthammachart, Wanida Jinsart

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Atmospheric particulate matter particles with a diameter less than 10 microns (PM₁₀) and less than 2.5 microns (PM₂.₅) have adverse health effect. The impact from PM was studied from both health and regulatory perspective. Ambient PM data was collected over ten years in Bangkok and vicinity areas of Thailand from 2007 to 2017. Statistical models were used to forecast PM concentrations from 2018 to 2020. Monitoring monthly data averaged concentration of PM₁₀ and PM₂.₅ were used as input to forecast the monthly average concentration of PM. The forecasting results were validated by root means square error (RMSE). The predicted results were used to determine hazard risk for the carcinogenic disease. The health risk values were interpolated with GIS with ordinary kriging technique to create hazard maps in Bangkok and vicinity area. GIS-based maps illustrated the variability of PM distribution and high-risk locations. These evaluated results could support national policy for the sake of human health.

Keywords: PM₁₀, PM₂.₅, statistical models, atmospheric particulate matter

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Authors: Khatia Tavidashvili, Nino Jamrishvili, Valerian Omsarashvili

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Studies of the vertical distribution of the air temperature in the atmosphere have great value for the solution of different problems of meteorology and climatology (meteorological forecast of showers, thunderstorms, and hail, weather modification, estimation of climate change, etc.). From the end of May 2015 in Kakheti after 25-year interruption, the work of anti-hail service was restored. Therefore, in connection with climate change, the need for the detailed study of the contemporary regime of the vertical distribution of the air temperature above this territory arose. In particular, the indicated information is necessary for the optimum selection of rocket means with the works on the weather modification (fight with the hail, the regulation of atmospheric precipitations, etc.). Construction of the detailed maps of the potential damage distribution of agricultural crops from the hail, etc. taking into account the dimensions of hailstones in the clouds according to the data of radar measurements and height of locality are the most important factors. For now, in Georgia, there is no aerological probing of atmosphere. To solve given problem we processed information about air temperature profiles above Telavi, at 27 km above earth's surface. Information was gathered during four observation time (4, 10, 16, 22 hours with local time. After research, we found vertical distribution of the average monthly values of the air temperature above Kakheti in ‎2012-2017 from January to December. Research was conducted from 0.543 to 27 km above sea level during four periods of research. In particular, it is obtained: -during January the monthly average air temperature linearly diminishes with 2.6 °C on the earth's surface to -57.1 °C at the height of 10 km, then little it changes up to the height of 26 km; the gradient of the air temperature in the layer of the atmosphere from 0.543 to 8 km - 6.3 °C/km; height of zero isotherm - is 1.33 km. -during July the air temperature linearly diminishes with 23.5 °C to -64.7 °C at the height of 17 km, then it grows to -47.5 °C at the height of 27 km; the gradient of the air temperature of - 6.1 °C/km; height of zero isotherm - is 4.39 km, which on 0.16 km is higher than in the sixties of past century.

Keywords: hail, Kakheti, meteorology, vertical distribution of the air temperature

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Authors: Krisada Lekdee, Sunee Sammatat, Nittaya Boonsit

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This paper proposes a GLMM with spatial and temporal effects for malaria data in Thailand. A Bayesian method is used for parameter estimation via Gibbs sampling MCMC. A conditional autoregressive (CAR) model is assumed to present the spatial effects. The temporal correlation is presented through the covariance matrix of the random effects. The malaria quarterly data have been extracted from the Bureau of Epidemiology, Ministry of Public Health of Thailand. The factors considered are rainfall and temperature. The result shows that rainfall and temperature are positively related to the malaria morbidity rate. The posterior means of the estimated morbidity rates are used to construct the malaria maps. The top 5 highest morbidity rates (per 100,000 population) are in Trat (Q3, 111.70), Chiang Mai (Q3, 104.70), Narathiwat (Q4, 97.69), Chiang Mai (Q2, 88.51), and Chanthaburi (Q3, 86.82). According to the DIC criterion, the proposed model has a better performance than the GLMM with spatial effects but without temporal terms.

Keywords: Bayesian method, generalized linear mixed model (GLMM), malaria, spatial effects, temporal correlation

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Authors: Namwinwelbere Dabire, Eugene C. Ezin, Adandedji M. Firmin

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The prediction of hydrological flows (rainfall-depth or rainfall-discharge) is becoming increasingly important in the management of hydrological risks such as floods. In this study, the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network, a state-of-the-art algorithm dedicated to time series, is applied to predict the daily water level of Nokoue Lake in Benin. This paper aims to provide an effective and reliable method enable of reproducing the future daily water level of Nokoue Lake, which is influenced by a combination of two phenomena: rainfall and river flow (runoff from the Ouémé River, the Sô River, the Porto-Novo lagoon, and the Atlantic Ocean). Performance analysis based on the forecasting horizon indicates that LSTM can predict the water level of Nokoué Lake up to a forecast horizon of t+10 days. Performance metrics such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), coefficient of correlation (R²), Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) agree on a forecast horizon of up to t+3 days. The values of these metrics remain stable for forecast horizons of t+1 days, t+2 days, and t+3 days. The values of R² and NSE are greater than 0.97 during the training and testing phases in the Nokoué Lake basin. Based on the evaluation indices used to assess the model's performance for the appropriate forecast horizon of water level in the Nokoué Lake basin, the forecast horizon of t+3 days is chosen for predicting future daily water levels.

Keywords: forecasting, long short-term memory cell, recurrent artificial neural network, Nokoué lake

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Authors: Balogun R. Ayodeji, Adefisan E. Adesanya, Adeyewa Z. Debo, E. C. Okogbue

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The need to investigate diurnal weather circles in West Africa is coined in the fact that complex interactions often results from diurnal weather patterns. This study investigates diurnal circles of wind, rainfall and convective properties using six (6) hour interval data from the ERA-Interim and the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM). The seven distinct zones, used in this work and classified as rainforest (west-coast, dry, Nigeria-Cameroon), Savannah (Nigeria, and Central Africa and South Sudan (CASS)), Sudano-Sahel, and Sahel, were clearly indicated by the rainfall pattern in each zones. Results showed that the land‐ocean warming contrast was more strongly sensitive to seasonal cycle and has been very weak during March-May (MAM) but clearly spelt out during June-September (JJAS). Dipoles of wind convergence/divergence and wet/dry precipitation, between CASS and Nigeria Savannah zones, were identified in morning and evening hours of MAM, whereas distinct night and day anomaly, in the same location of CASS, were found to be consistent during the JJAS season. Diurnal variation of convective properties showed that stratiform precipitation, due to the extremely low occurrence of flashcount climatology, was dominant during morning hours for both MAM and JJAS than other periods of the day. On the other hand, diurnal variation of the system sizes showed that small system sizes were most dominant during the day time periods for both MAM and JJAS, whereas larger system sizes were frequent during the evening, night, and morning hours. The locations of flashcount and system sizes agreed with earlier results that morning and day-time hours were dominated by stratiform precipitation and small system sizes respectively. Most results clearly showed that the eastern locations of Sudano and Sahel were consistently dry because rainfall and precipitation features were predominantly few. System sizes greater than or equal to 800 km² were found in the western axis of the Sudano and Sahel zones, whereas the eastern axis, particularly in the Sahel zone, had minimal occurrences of small/large system sizes. From the results of locations of extreme systems, flashcount greater than 275 in one single system was never observed during the morning (6Z) diurnal, whereas, the evening (18Z) diurnal had the most frequent cases (at least 8) of flashcount exceeding 275 in one single system. Results presented had shown the importance of diurnal variation in understanding precipitation, flashcount, system sizes patterns at diurnal scales, and understanding land-ocean contrast, precipitation, and wind field anomaly at diurnal scales.

Keywords: convective properties, diurnal circle, flashcount, system sizes

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Authors: Ahmed Aisa, Tariq Iqbal

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This letter talks about the ready-to-use design of a solar water heating system because, in Canada, the average consumption of hot water per person is approximately 50 to 75 L per day and the average Canadian household uses 225 L. Therefore, this paper will demonstrate the method of designing a solar water heating system with thermal storage. It highlights the renewable hybrid power system, allowing you to obtain a reliable, independent system with the optimization of the ingredient size and at an improved capital cost. The system can provide hot water for a big building. The main power for the system comes from solar panels. Solar Advisory Model (SAM) and HOMER are used. HOMER and SAM are design models that calculate the consumption of hot water and cost for a house. Some results, obtained through simulation, were for monthly energy production, annual energy production, after tax cash flow, the lifetime of the system and monthly energy usage represented by three types of energy. These are system energy, electricity load electricity and net metering credit.

Keywords: water heating, thermal storage, capital cost solar, consumption

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Authors: Khuram Nawaz Sadozai, Sonia

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The agriculture sector is deemed more vulnerable to climate change as its variation can directly affect the crop’s productivity, but farmers’ adaptation strategies play a vital role in climate change-agriculture relationship. Therefore, this research has been undertaken to assess the Climate Change impact on wheat productivity and farmers’ adaptability strategies in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, Pakistan. The panel dataset was analyzed to gauge the impact of changing climate variables (i.e., temperature, rainfall, and humidity) on wheat productivity from 1985 to 2015. Amid the study period, the fixed effect estimates confirmed an inverse relationship of temperature and rainfall on the wheat yield. The impact of temperature is observed to be detrimental as compared to the rainfall, causing 0.07 units reduction in the production of wheat with 1C upsurge in temperature. On the flip side, humidity revealed a positive association with the wheat productivity by confirming that high humidity could be beneficial to the production of the crop over time. Thus, this study ensures significant nexus between agricultural production and climatic parameters. However, the farming community in the underlying study area has limited knowledge about the adaptation strategies to lessen the detrimental impact of changing climate on crop yield. It is recommended that farmers should be well equipped with training and advanced agricultural management practices under the realm of climate change. Moreover, innovative technologies pertinent to the agriculture system should be encouraged to handle the challenges arising due to variations in climate factors.

Keywords: climate change, fixed effect model, panel data, wheat productivity

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Authors: Imene Skhakhfa, Lahbaci Ouerdachi

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The design of sewerage systems is directly related to rainfall, which has a highly random character. Showers are usually described by three characteristics: intensity, volume and duration. Several studies considered only in two of the three models. The objective of our work is to perform an analysis of the impact of three variables on put in charge of sewerage system, responsible for misbehavior, origin of urban flooding. 30 events were considered events for the longest, most rushed and most intense period which runs from 1986 -2001. We built the IDF curves and heavy projects double symmetrical triangles associated with this selection. A simulation of the operation, with the model canoe, sewage from the city of Annaba (Algeria) in the three rain solicitation project, double triangles associated with events considered. It appears that the sewage of the city of Annaba, in terms of charging, is much more sensitive to rain most precipitous, and the more intense causing loadings and last the longest. Further analysis of all the rain and the field measurements are underway to confirm the test simulations.

Keywords: intensity, volume, duration, sewerage, design, simulation

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Authors: Ayal Siegel, Moshe Inbar, Amatzya Peled

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This study examined the characteristic runoff coefficient in different urban areas. The main area studied is located in the city of Haifa, northern Israel. Haifa spreads out eastward from the Mediterranean seacoast to the top of the Carmel Mountain range with an elevation of 300 m. above sea level. For this research project, four watersheds were chosen, each characterizing a different part of the city; 1) Upper Hadar, a spacious suburb on the upper mountain side; 2) Qiryat Eliezer, a crowded suburb on a level plane of the watershed; 3) Technion, a large technical research university which is located halfway between the top of the mountain range and the coast line. 4) Keret, a remote suburb, on the southwestern outskirts of Haifa. In all of the watersheds found suitable, instruments were installed to continuously measure the water level flowing in the channels. Three rainfall gauges scattered in the study area complete the hydrological requirements for this research project. The runoff coefficient C in peak discharge events was determined by the Rational Formula. The main research finding is the significant relationship between the intensity of rainfall, and the impervious area which is connected to the drainage system of the watershed. For less intense rainfall, the full potential of the connected impervious area will not be exploited. As a result, the runoff coefficient value decreases as do the peak discharge rate and the runoff yield from the storm event. The research results will enable application to other areas by means of hydrological model to be be set up on GIS software that will make it possible to estimate the runoff coefficient of any given city watershed.

Keywords: runoff coefficient, rational method, time of concentration, connected impervious area.

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Authors: Charawee Butbumrung

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The purpose of this research was to study customer relationship management on social media affecting brand loyalty of Siam Commercial Bank in Bangkok. The statistics used in data analysis were frequency, mean, standard deviation, and Pearson’s correlation coefficient based on social science statistic program. The result of the study found that the majority of the respondents were female, 37–47 years old of age, bachelor degree of education and monthly income between 10,001 and 15,000 Baht. In addition, customer relationship management in the overall and by each aspect of formulating, maintaining, and extending the customer relationship had a high score. Furthermore, the result of hypothesis testing showed that the difference of the customer’s age, education, occupation, average monthly income had the difference in brand loyalty with the statistical significance level of 0.05 and customer relationship management had related with brand loyalty in the same direction with the low level of statistical significance 0.05.

Keywords: brand loyalty, customer relationship management, Siam Commercial bank, social media

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Authors: Willy Mbenza, Sho Kenjiro

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Increasing efforts are directed towards a better understanding and foreknowledge of extreme precipitation likelihood, given the adverse effects associated with their occurrence. This knowledge plays a crucial role in long-term planning and the formulation of effective emergency response. However, predicting extreme events reliably presents a challenge to conventional empirical/statistics due to the involvement of numerous variables spanning different time and space scales. In the recent time, Machine Learning has emerged as a promising tool for predicting the dynamics of extreme precipitation. ML techniques enables the consideration of both local and regional physical variables that have a strong influence on the likelihood of extreme precipitation. These variables encompasses factors such as air temperature, soil moisture, specific humidity, aerosol concentration, among others. In this study, we develop an ML model that incorporates both local and regional variables while establishing a robust relationship between physical variables and precipitation during the downscaling process. Furthermore, the model provides valuable information on the frequency and duration of a given intensity of precipitation.

Keywords: machine learning (ML), predictions, rainfall events, regional variables

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Authors: Qurratulain Safdar

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Drought is a temporary aberration in contrast to aridity, as it is a permanent feature of climate. Virtually, it takes place in all types of climatic regions that range from high to low rainfall areas. Due to the wide latitudinal extent of Pakistan, there is seasonal and annual variability in rainfall. The south-central part of the country is arid and hyper-arid. This study focuses on the spatio-temporal analysis of droughts in arid and hyperarid region of Cholistan using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) approach. This study has assessed the extent of recurrences of drought and its temporal vulnerability to drought in Cholistan region. Initially, the paper described the geographic setup of the study area along with a brief description of the drought conditions that prevail in Pakistan. The study also provides a scientific foundation for preparing literature and theoretical framework in-line with the selected parameters and indicators. Data were collected both from primary and secondary data sources. Rainfall and temperature data were obtained from Pakistan Meteorology Department. By applying geostatistical approach, a standardized precipitation index (SPI) was calculated for the study region, and the value of spatio-temporal variability of drought and its severity was explored. As a result, in-depth spatial analysis of drought conditions in Cholistan area was found. Parallel to this, drought-prone areas with seasonal variation were also identified using Kriging spatial interpolation techniques in a GIS environment. The study revealed that there is temporal variation in droughts' occurrences both in time series and SPI values. The paper is finally concluded, and strategic plan was suggested to minimize the impacts of drought.

Keywords: Cholistan desert, climate anomalies, metrological droughts, standardized precipitation index

Procedia PDF Downloads 171

Authors: Meiyan Gao, Zongmin Wang, Haibo Yang, Qiuhua Liang

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Under the background of global climate change and rapid development of modern urbanization, the frequency of climate disasters such as extreme precipitation in cities around the world is gradually increasing. In this paper, Hi-PIMS model is used to simulate the "720" flood in Zhengzhou, and the continuous stages of flood resilience are determined with the urban flood stages are divided. The flood resilience curve under the influence of multiple factors were determined and the urban flood toughness was evaluated by combining the results of resilience curves. The flood resilience of urban unit grid was evaluated based on economy, population, road network, hospital distribution and land use type. Firstly, the rainfall data of meteorological stations near Zhengzhou and the remote sensing rainfall data from July 17 to 22, 2021 were collected. The Kriging interpolation method was used to expand the rainfall data of Zhengzhou. According to the rainfall data, the flood process generated by four rainfall events in Zhengzhou was reproduced. Based on the results of the inundation range and inundation depth in different areas, the flood process was divided into four stages: absorption, resistance, overload and recovery based on the once in 50 years rainfall standard. At the same time, based on the levels of slope, GDP, population, hospital affected area, land use type, road network density and other aspects, the resilience curve was applied to evaluate the urban flood resilience of different regional units, and the difference of flood process of different precipitation in "720" rainstorm in Zhengzhou was analyzed. Faced with more than 1,000 years of rainstorm, most areas are quickly entering the stage of overload. The influence levels of factors in different areas are different, some areas with ramps or higher terrain have better resilience, and restore normal social order faster, that is, the recovery stage needs shorter time. Some low-lying areas or special terrain, such as tunnels, will enter the overload stage faster in the case of heavy rainfall. As a result, high levels of flood protection, water level warning systems and faster emergency response are needed in areas with low resilience and high risk. The building density of built-up area, population of densely populated area and road network density all have a certain negative impact on urban flood resistance, and the positive impact of slope on flood resilience is also very obvious. While hospitals can have positive effects on medical treatment, they also have negative effects such as population density and asset density when they encounter floods. The result of a separate comparison of the unit grid of hospitals shows that the resilience of hospitals in the distribution range is low when they encounter floods. Therefore, in addition to improving the flood resistance capacity of cities, through reasonable planning can also increase the flood response capacity of cities. Changes in these influencing factors can further improve urban flood resilience, such as raise design standards and the temporary water storage area when floods occur, train the response speed of emergency personnel and adjust emergency support equipment.

Keywords: urban flood resilience, resilience assessment, hydrodynamic model, resilience curve

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Authors: Arsenio Jose Mindu

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The concern to carry out a study related to Energy Efficiency arose based on the various debates in international television networks and not only, but also in several forums of national debates. The concept of Energy Efficiency is not yet widely disseminated and /or taken into account in terms of energy consumption, not only at the domestic level but also at the industrial level in Mozambique. In the context of the energy audit, the time during which each of the appliances is connected to the voltage source, the time during which they are in standby mode was recorded on a spreadsheet basis. Based on these data, daily and monthly consumption was calculated. In order to have more accurate information on the daily levels of daily consumption, the electricity consumption was read every hour of the day (from 5:00 am to 11:00 pm), since after 23:00 the energy consumption remains constant. For ten days. Based on the daily energy consumption and the maximum consumption power, the design of the photovoltaic system for the residence was made. With the implementation of the photovoltaic system in order to guarantee energy efficiency, there was a significant reduction in the use of electricity from the public grid, increasing from approximately 17 kwh per day to around 11 kwh, thus achieving an energy efficiency of 67.4 %. That is to say, there was a reduction not only in terms of the amount of energy consumed but also of the monthly expenses with electricity, having increased from around 2,500,00Mt (2,500 meticais) to around 800Mt per month.

Keywords: energy efficiency, photovoltaic system, residential sector, Mozambique

Procedia PDF Downloads 177