Search results for: mechanistic empirical
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2599

Search results for: mechanistic empirical

2329 Numerical Modelling of Hydrodynamic Drag and Supercavitation Parameters for Supercavitating Torpedoes

Authors: Sezer Kefeli, Sertaç Arslan

Abstract:

In this paper, supercavitationphenomena, and parameters are explained, and hydrodynamic design approaches are investigated for supercavitating torpedoes. In addition, drag force calculation methods ofsupercavitatingvehicles are obtained. Basically, conventional heavyweight torpedoes reach up to ~50 knots by classic hydrodynamic techniques, on the other hand super cavitating torpedoes may reach up to ~200 knots, theoretically. However, in order to reachhigh speeds, hydrodynamic viscous forces have to be reduced or eliminated completely. This necessity is revived the supercavitation phenomena that is implemented to conventional torpedoes. Supercavitation is a type of cavitation, after all, it is more stable and continuous than other cavitation types. The general principle of supercavitation is to separate the underwater vehicle from water phase by surrounding the vehicle with cavitation bubbles. This situation allows the torpedo to operate at high speeds through the water being fully developed cavitation. Conventional torpedoes are entitled as supercavitating torpedoes when the torpedo moves in a cavity envelope due to cavitator in the nose section and solid fuel rocket engine in the rear section. There are two types of supercavitation phase, these are natural and artificial cavitation phases. In this study, natural cavitation is investigated on the disk cavitators based on numerical methods. Once the supercavitation characteristics and drag reduction of natural cavitationare studied on CFD platform, results are verified with the empirical equations. As supercavitation parameters cavitation number (), pressure distribution along axial axes, drag coefficient (C_?) and drag force (D), cavity wall velocity (U_?) and dimensionless cavity shape parameters, which are cavity length (L_?/d_?), cavity diameter(d_ₘ/d_?) and cavity fineness ratio (〖L_?/d〗_ₘ) are investigated and compared with empirical results. This paper has the characteristics of feasibility study to carry out numerical solutions of the supercavitation phenomena comparing with empirical equations.

Keywords: CFD, cavity envelope, high speed underwater vehicles, supercavitating flows, supercavitation, drag reduction, supercavitation parameters

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2328 Probabilistic Model for Evaluating Seismic Soil Liquefaction Based on Energy Approach

Authors: Hamid Rostami, Ali Fallah Yeznabad, Mohammad H. Baziar

Abstract:

The energy-based method for evaluating seismic soil liquefaction has two main sections. First is the demand energy, which is dissipated energy of earthquake at a site, and second is the capacity energy as a representation of soil resistance against liquefaction hazard. In this study, using a statistical analysis of recorded data by 14 down-hole array sites in California, an empirical equation was developed to estimate the demand energy at sites. Because determination of capacity energy at a site needs to calculate several site calibration factors, which are obtained by experimental tests, in this study the standard penetration test (SPT) N-value was assumed as an alternative to the capacity energy at a site. Based on this assumption, the empirical equation was employed to calculate the demand energy for 193 liquefied and no-liquefied sites and then these amounts were plotted versus the corresponding SPT numbers for all sites. Subsequently, a discrimination analysis was employed to determine the equations of several boundary curves for various liquefaction likelihoods. Finally, a comparison was made between the probabilistic model and the commonly used stress method. As a conclusion, the results clearly showed that energy-based method can be more reliable than conventional stress-based method in evaluation of liquefaction occurrence.

Keywords: energy demand, liquefaction, probabilistic analysis, SPT number

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2327 Cardenolides from the Egyptian Cultivar: Acokanthera spectabilis Leaves Inducing Apoptosis through Arresting Hepatocellular Carcinoma Growth at G2/M

Authors: Maha Soltan, Amal Z. Hassan, Howaida I. Abd-Alla, Atef G. Hanna

Abstract:

Two naturally known cardenolides; acovenoside A and acobioside A were isolated from the Egyptian cultivar; Acokanthera spectabilis leaves. It is an ornamental and poisonous plant that has been traditionally claimed for their medicinal properties against infectious microbes, killing worms and curing some inflammations at little amounts. We examined the growth inhibition effects of both cardenolides against four types of human cancer cell lines using Sulphorhodamine B assay. In addition, the clonogenic assay was also performed for testing the growth inhibiting power of the isolated compounds. An in vitro mechanistic investigation was further accomplished against hepatocellular carcinoma HepG2 cell line. Microscopic examination, colorimetric ELISA and flow cytometry techniques were our tools of proving at least part of the anticancer pathway of the tested compounds. Both compounds were able to inhibit the growth of 4 human cancer cell lines at less than 100 nM. In addition, they were able to activate the executioner Caspase-3 and apoptosis was then induced as a consequence of cell growth arrest at G2/M. An attention must be payed to those bioactive agents particularly when giving their activity against cancer cells at considerable small values while presenting safe therapeutic margins as indicated by literature.

Keywords: anticancer, cardenolides, Caspase-3, apoptosis

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2326 Perceptions of Educators on the Learners’ Youngest Age for the Introduction of ICTs in Schools: A Personality Theory Approach

Authors: Kayode E. Oyetade, Seraphin D. Eyono Obono

Abstract:

Age ratings are very helpful in providing parents with relevant information for the purchase and use of digital technologies by the children; this is why the non-definition of age ratings for the use of ICT's by children in schools is a major concern; and this problem serves as a motivation for this study whose aim is to examine the factors affecting the perceptions of educators on the learners’ youngest age for the introduction of ICT's in schools. This aim is achieved through two types of research objectives: the identification and design of theories and models on age ratings, and the empirical testing of such theories and models in a survey of educators from the Camperdown district of the South African KwaZulu-Natal province. A questionnaire is used for the collection of the data of this survey whose validity and reliability is checked in SPSS prior to its descriptive and correlative quantitative analysis. The main hypothesis supporting this research is the association between the demographics of educators, their personality, and their perceptions on the learners’ youngest age for the introduction of ICT's in schools; as claimed by existing research; except that the present study looks at personality from three dimensions: self-actualized personalities, fully functioning personalities, and healthy personalities. This hypothesis was fully confirmed by the empirical study conducted by this research except for the demographic factor where only the educators’ grade or class was found to be associated with the personality of educators.

Keywords: age ratings, educators, e-learning, personality theories

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2325 Macroeconomic Measure of Projectification: An Empirical Study of Pakistani Economy

Authors: Shafaq Rana, Hina Ansar

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Projectification is an emerging phenomenon in Western economies. The projects have become the key driver of the economic actions. The impact of projectification is understudy for over a decade. A methodology was developed to measure the degree of projectification at economical level, which was later adapted to measure the degree of projectification in Germany, Norway, and Iceland; and compared the differences in these project societies, considering their industrial structure, organizational size, and the share of project work. Using the same methodology, this study aims to provide empirical evidence of the project work in the context of Pakistan –a developing nation, keeping into consideration the macroeconomic measures, qualitative and quantitative measures of the project i/c GDP, monetary measures, and project success. The research includes a qualitative pre-study to define these macro-measures in the country-specific context and a quantitative study to measure the project work w.r.t hours working in the organizations on projects. The outcome of this study provides the key data on the projectification in a developing economy, which will help industry practitioners and decision-makers to examine the consequences of projectification and strategize, respectively. This study also provides a foundation for further research in individual sectors of the country while exploring different macroeconomic questions, including the effect of projectification on project productivity, income effects, and labor market.

Keywords: developing economy, Pakistan, project work, projectification

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2324 Empirical Investigation of Bullwhip Effect with Sensitivity Analysis in Supply Chain

Authors: Shoaib Yousaf

Abstract:

The main purpose of this research is to the empirical investigation of the bullwhip effect under sensitivity analysis in the two-tier supply chain. The simulation modeling technique has been applied in this research as a research methodology to see the sensitivity analysis of the bullwhip effect in the rice industry of Pakistan. The research comprises two case studies that have been chosen as a sample. The results of this research have confirmed that reduction in production delay reduces the bullwhip effect, which conforms to the time compressing paradigm and the significance of the reduction in production delay to lessen demand amplification. The result of this research also indicates that by increasing the value of time to adjust inventory decreases the bullwhip effect. Furthermore, by decreasing the value of alpha increases the damping effect of the exponential smoother, it is not surprising that it also reduces the bullwhip effect. Moreover, by reducing the value of time to work in progress also reduces the bullwhip effect. This research will help practitioners and operation managers to reduces the major costs of their products in three ways. They can reduce their i) inventory levels, ii) better utilize their capacity and iii) improve their forecasting techniques. However, this study is based on two tier supply chain, while in reality the supply chain has got many tiers. Hence, future work will be extended across more than two-tier supply chains.

Keywords: bullwhip effect, rice industry, supply chain dynamics, simulation, sensitivity analysis

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2323 The Antecedent Variables of Government Financial Accounting System (SAKD) Implementation and Its Consequences: Empirical Study on the Device of Regional Coordinating Agency for Development of Cross County, City Region III Central Java Province, Indo

Authors: Dona Primasari

Abstract:

This study examines the antecedent variables of Government Financial Acccounting System (SAKD) implementation and its consequence. The antecedent variables are: decentralization of decision making, adaptation, and the manager support. The consequences are satisfaction and performance officer. This research represents the empirical test which used convenience sampling technics in data collection. The data were collected from 167 officers of local government in the Regional Coordinating Agency for Development of Cross County/City Region III Central Java Province. Data analysis used Structural Equation Model (SEM) with the AMOS 18.0 program. The result of hypothesis examination indicates that six raised hypothesis are accepted and two hypothesis are rejected.

Keywords: decentralization of decision making, adaptation officer, manager support, implementation of Government Accounting Financial System (SAKD), satisfaction and performance officer

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2322 the fairness of meritocracy and Korean Democracy-What makes the Korean youth accept the fairness of meritocracy??

Authors: WooJin KANG

Abstract:

Contrary to the ideal, in the cartelized democracy, meritocracy is revealed to be a system that gives arrogance to the winners and humiliation to the losers, and more and more studies are asserting the upper-class bias of meritocracy. However, only some studies have analyzed the determinants of the perception of meritocracy and fairness among young people. This article was an attempt to fill this gap. According to the empirical results of this article, the determinants of fairness of the meritocracy in the youth were multidimensional. The social status model, the political ideology model, and the future prospect model all significantly impacted the perception of meritocracy fairness among young people. Contrary to the predictions of the system justification theory and the compensatory control theory of previous studies, the lower-class youth were critical of meritocracy. In addition, the more negative the future outlook, the less they accepted the fairness of meritocracy. In addition, ideological debates over solutions to inequality of opportunity, which began in earnest during the 20th presidential election, turned out to be a variable that significantly influenced the perception of fairness based on meritocracy among young people. The results of the empirical analysis in this article reaffirmed the multidimensional structure of the youth. This suggests the need for policy responses leading to education tailored to various subgroups within the youth.

Keywords: Meritocracy, Exam-Meritocracy, Fairness, Multiple-inequality

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2321 The Role of Marketing Information System on Decision-Making: An Applied Study on Algeria Telecoms Mobile "MOBILIS"

Authors: Benlakhdar Mohamed Larbi, Yagoub Asma

Abstract:

Purpose: This study aims at highlighting the significance and importance of utilizing marketing information system (MKIS) on decision-making, by clarifying the need for quick and efficient decision-making due to time saving and preventing of duplication of work. Design, methodology, approach: The study shows the roles of each part of MKIS for developing marketing strategy, which present a real challenge to individuals and institutions in an era characterized by uncertainty and clarifying the importance of each part separately, depending on decision type and the nature of the situation. The empirical research method was evaluated by specialized experts, conducted by means of questionnaires. Correlation analysis was employed to test the validity of the procedure. Results: The empirical study findings confirmed positive relationships between the level of utilizing and adopting ‘decision support system and marketing intelligence’ and the success of an organizational decision-making, and provide the organization with a competitive advantage as it allows the organization to solve problems. Originality/value: The study offer better understanding of performance- increasing market share as an organizational decision making based on marketing information system.

Keywords: database, marketing research, marketing intelligence, decision support system, decision-making

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2320 Cyclic Plastic Deformation of 20MN-MO-NI 55 Steel in Dynamic Strain Ageing Regime

Authors: Ashok Kumar, Sarita Sahu, H. N. Bar

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Low cycle fatigue behavior of a ferritic, martensitic pressure vessel steel at dynamic strain ageing regime of 250°C to 280°C has been investigated. Dynamic strain ageing is a mechanism that has attracted interests of researchers due to its fascinating inexplicable repetitive nature for quite a long time. The interaction of dynamic strain ageing and cyclic plasticity has been studied from the mechanistic point of view. Dynamic strain ageing gives rise to identical serrated flow behavior in tensile and compressive halves of hysteresis loops and this has been found to gives rise to initial cyclic hardening followed by softening behavior, where as in non-DSA regime continuous cyclic softening has been found to be the dominant mechanism. An appreciable sensitivity towards nature of serrations has been observed due to degree of hardening of stable loop. The increase in degree of hardening with strain amplitude in the regime where only A type serrations are present and it decreases with strain amplitude where A+B type of serrations are present. Masing type of locus has been found in the behavior of metal at 280°C. Cyclic Stress Strain curve and Master curve has been constructed to decipher among the fatigue strength and ductility coefficients. Fractographic examinations have also shown a competition between progression of striations and secondary cracking.

Keywords: dynamic strain ageing, hardening, low cycle fatigue, softening

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2319 Behind Egypt’s Financial Crisis: Dollarization

Authors: Layal Mansour

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This paper breaks down Egypt’s financial crisis by constructing a customized financial stress index by including the vulnerable economic indicator “dollarization” as a vulnerable indicator in the credit and exchange sector. The Financial Stress Index for Egypt (FSIE) includes informative vulnerable indicators of the main financial sectors: the banking sector, the equities market, and the foreign exchange market. It is calculated on a monthly basis from 2010 to December 2022, so to report the two recent world’s most devastating financial crises: Covid 19 crisis and Ukraine-Russia War, in addition to the local 2016 and 2022 financial crises. We proceed first by a graphical analysis then by empirical analysis in running under Vector Autoregression (VAR) Model, dynamic causality tests between foreign reserves, dollarization rate, and FSIE. The graphical analysis shows that unexpectedly, Egypt’s economy seems to be immune to internal economic/political instabilities, however it is highly exposed to the foreign and exchange market. Empirical analysis confirms the graphical observations and proves that dollarization, or more precisely debt in foreign currency seems to be the main trigger of Egypt’s current financial crisis.

Keywords: egypt, financial crisis, financial stress index, dollarization, VAR model, causality tests

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2318 Adopting a Stakeholder Perspective to Profile Successful Sustainable Circular Business Approaches: A Single Case Study

Authors: Charleen von Kolpinski, Karina Cagarman, Alina Blaute

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The circular economy concept is often framed by politicians, scientists and practitioners as being the solution to sustainability problems of our times. However, the focus of these discussions and publications is very often set on environmental and economic aspects. In contrast, the social dimension of sustainability has been neglected and only a few recent and mostly conceptual studies targeted the inclusion of social aspects and the SDGs into circular economy research. All stakeholders of this new circular system have to be included to represent a truly sustainable solution to all the environmental, economic and social challenges caused by the linear economic system. Hence, this empirical research aims to analyse, next to the environmental and economic dimension, also explicitly the social dimension of a sustainable circular business model. This inductive and explorative approach applies the single case study method. A multi-stakeholder view is adopted to shed light on social aspects of the circular business model. Different stakeholder views, tensions between stakeholders and conflicts of interest are detected. In semi-structured interviews with different stakeholders of the company, this study compares the different stakeholder views to profile the success factors of its business model in terms of sustainability implementation and to detect its shortcomings. These findings result in the development of propositions which cover different social aspects of sustainable circular business model implementation. This study is an answer to calls for future empirical research about the social dimension of the circular economy and contributes to sustainable business model thinking in entrepreneurial contexts of the circular economy. It helps identifying all relevant stakeholders and their needs to successfully and inclusively implement a sustainable circular business model. The method of a single case study has some limitations by nature as it only covers one enterprise with its special business model. Therefore, more empirical studies are needed to research sustainable circular business models from multiple stakeholder perspectives, in different countries and industries. Future research can build upon the developed propositions of this study and develop hypotheses to be tested.

Keywords: circular economy, single case study, social dimension, sustainable circular business model

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2317 An Empirical Investigation of Montesquieu’s Theories on Climate

Authors: Lisa J. Piergallini

Abstract:

This project uses panel regression analyses to investigate the relationships between geography, institutions, and economic development, as guided by the theories of the 18th century French philosopher Montesquieu. Contemporary scholars of political economy perpetually misinterpret Montesquieu’s theories on climate, and in doing so they miss what could be the key to resolving the geography vs. institutions debate. There is a conspicuous gap in this literature, in that it does not consider whether geography and institutors might have an interactive, dynamic effect on economic development. This project seeks to bridge that gap. Data are used for all available countries over the years 1980-2013. Two interaction terms between geographic and institutional variables are employed within the empirical analyses, and these offer a unique contribution to the ongoing geography vs. institutions debate within the political economy literature. This study finds that there is indeed an interactive effect between geography and institutions, and that this interaction has a statistically significant effect on economic development. Democracy (as measured by Polity score) and rule of law and property rights (as measured by the Fraser index) have positive effects on economic development (as measured by GDP per capita), yet the magnitude of these effects are stronger in contexts where a low percent of the national population lives in the geographical tropics. This has implications for promoting economic development, and it highlights the importance of understanding geographical context.

Keywords: Montesquieu, institutions, geography, economic development, political philosophy, political economy

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2316 Kinetic and Mechanistic Study on the Degradation of Typical Pharmaceutical and Personal Care Products in Water by Using Carbon Nanodots/C₃N₄ Composite and Ultrasonic Irradiation

Authors: Miao Yang

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PPCPs (pharmaceutical and personal care products) in water, as an environmental pollutant, becomes an issue of increasing concern. Therefore, the techniques for degradation of PPCPs has been a hotspot in water pollution control field. Since there are several disadvantages for common degradation techniques of PPCPs, such as low degradation efficiency for certain PPCPs (ibuprofen and Carbamazepine) this proposal will adopt a combined technique by using CDs (carbon nanodots)/C₃N₄ composite and ultrasonic irradiation to mitigate or overcome these shortages. There is a significant scientific problem that the mechanism including PPCPs, major reactants, and interfacial active sites is not clear yet in the study of PPCPs degradation. This work aims to solve this problem by using both theoretical and experimental methodologies. Firstly, optimized parameters will be obtained by evaluating the kinetics and oxidation efficiency under different conditions. The competition between H₂O₂ and PPCPs with HO• will be elucidated, after which the degradation mechanism of PPCPs by the synergy of CDs/C₃N₄ composite and ultrasonic irradiation will be proposed. Finally, a sonolysis-adsorption-catalysis coupling mechanism will be established which is the theoretical basis and technical support for developing new efficient degradation techniques for PPCPs in the future.

Keywords: carbon nanodots/C₃N₄, pharmaceutical and personal care products, ultrasonic irradiation, hydroxyl radical, heterogeneous catalysis

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2315 Nonlinear Porous Diffusion Modeling of Ionic Agrochemicals in Astomatous Plant Cuticle Aqueous Pores: A Mechanistic Approach

Authors: Eloise C. Tredenick, Troy W. Farrell, W. Alison Forster, Steven T. P. Psaltis

Abstract:

The agriculture industry requires improved efficacy of sprays being applied to crops. More efficacious sprays provide many environmental and financial benefits. The plant leaf cuticle is known to be the main barrier to diffusion of agrochemicals within the leaf. The importance of a mathematical model to simulate uptake of agrochemicals in plant cuticles has been noted, as the results of each uptake experiments are specific to each formulation of active ingredient and plant species. In this work we develop a mathematical model and numerical simulation for the uptake of ionic agrochemicals through aqueous pores in plant cuticles. We propose a nonlinear porous diffusion model of ionic agrochemicals in isolated cuticles, which provides additions to a simple diffusion model through the incorporation of parameters capable of simulating plant species' variations, evaporation of surface droplet solutions and swelling of the aqueous pores with water. The model could feasibly be adapted to other ionic active ingredients diffusing through other plant species' cuticles. We validate our theoretical results against appropriate experimental data, discuss the key sensitivities in the model and relate theoretical predictions to appropriate physical mechanisms.

Keywords: aqueous pores, ionic active ingredient, mathematical model, plant cuticle, porous diffusion

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2314 Theoretical Insight into Ligand Free Manganese Catalyzed C-O Coupling Protocol for the Synthesis of Biaryl Ethers

Authors: Carolin Anna Joy, Rohith K. R, Rehin Sulay, Parvathy Santhoshkumar, G.Anil Kumar, Vibin Ipe Thomas

Abstract:

Ullmann coupling reactions are gaining great relevance owing to their contribution in the synthesis of biologically and pharmaceutically important compounds. Palladium and many other heavy metals have proven their excellent ability in coupling reaction, but the toxicity matters. The first-row transition metal also possess toxicity, except in the case of iron and manganese. The suitability of manganese as a catalyst is achieving great interest in oxidation, reduction, C-H activation, coupling reaction etc. In this presentation, we discuss the thermo chemistry of ligand free manganese catalyzed C-O coupling reaction between phenol and aryl halide for the synthesis of biaryl ethers using Density functional theory techniques. The mechanism involves an oxidative addition-reductive elimination step. The transition state for both the step had been studied and confirmed using Intrinsic Reaction Coordinate (IRC) calculation. The barrier height for the reaction had also been calculated from the rate determining step. The possibility of other mechanistic way had also been studied. To achieve further insight into the mechanism, substrate having various functional groups is considered in our study to direct their effect on the feasibility of the reaction.

Keywords: Density functional theory, Molecular Modeling, ligand free, biaryl ethers, Ullmann coupling

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2313 Prediction of Formation Pressure Using Artificial Intelligence Techniques

Authors: Abdulmalek Ahmed

Abstract:

Formation pressure is the main function that affects drilling operation economically and efficiently. Knowing the pore pressure and the parameters that affect it will help to reduce the cost of drilling process. Many empirical models reported in the literature were used to calculate the formation pressure based on different parameters. Some of these models used only drilling parameters to estimate pore pressure. Other models predicted the formation pressure based on log data. All of these models required different trends such as normal or abnormal to predict the pore pressure. Few researchers applied artificial intelligence (AI) techniques to predict the formation pressure by only one method or a maximum of two methods of AI. The objective of this research is to predict the pore pressure based on both drilling parameters and log data namely; weight on bit, rotary speed, rate of penetration, mud weight, bulk density, porosity and delta sonic time. A real field data is used to predict the formation pressure using five different artificial intelligence (AI) methods such as; artificial neural networks (ANN), radial basis function (RBF), fuzzy logic (FL), support vector machine (SVM) and functional networks (FN). All AI tools were compared with different empirical models. AI methods estimated the formation pressure by a high accuracy (high correlation coefficient and low average absolute percentage error) and outperformed all previous. The advantage of the new technique is its simplicity, which represented from its estimation of pore pressure without the need of different trends as compared to other models which require a two different trend (normal or abnormal pressure). Moreover, by comparing the AI tools with each other, the results indicate that SVM has the advantage of pore pressure prediction by its fast processing speed and high performance (a high correlation coefficient of 0.997 and a low average absolute percentage error of 0.14%). In the end, a new empirical correlation for formation pressure was developed using ANN method that can estimate pore pressure with a high precision (correlation coefficient of 0.998 and average absolute percentage error of 0.17%).

Keywords: Artificial Intelligence (AI), Formation pressure, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), Fuzzy Logic (FL), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Functional Networks (FN), Radial Basis Function (RBF)

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2312 An Empirical Evaluation of Performance of Machine Learning Techniques on Imbalanced Software Quality Data

Authors: Ruchika Malhotra, Megha Khanna

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The development of change prediction models can help the software practitioners in planning testing and inspection resources at early phases of software development. However, a major challenge faced during the training process of any classification model is the imbalanced nature of the software quality data. A data with very few minority outcome categories leads to inefficient learning process and a classification model developed from the imbalanced data generally does not predict these minority categories correctly. Thus, for a given dataset, a minority of classes may be change prone whereas a majority of classes may be non-change prone. This study explores various alternatives for adeptly handling the imbalanced software quality data using different sampling methods and effective MetaCost learners. The study also analyzes and justifies the use of different performance metrics while dealing with the imbalanced data. In order to empirically validate different alternatives, the study uses change data from three application packages of open-source Android data set and evaluates the performance of six different machine learning techniques. The results of the study indicate extensive improvement in the performance of the classification models when using resampling method and robust performance measures.

Keywords: change proneness, empirical validation, imbalanced learning, machine learning techniques, object-oriented metrics

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2311 Project Financing and Poverty Trends in the Islamic Development Bank Member Countries

Authors: Sennanda Musa, Ahmed Mutunzi Kitunzi, Gerald Kasigwa, Ismail Kintu

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This paper is an analysis of the empirical relationship between project financing by Islamic Development Bank (IsDB) and the poverty trends in the context of countries benefiting from IsDB. Specifically, the study seeks to find out whether there is a statistically significant relationship between the project financing dollar amounts by IsDB (PF) and the GNI Per Capita, PPP of 57 countries for the years 2002 to 2021. The research is a longitudinal, desk-top triangulation of correlation, regression, hypothesis-testing employing the linear dynamic panel data GMM model as an estimator of the empirical relationships between the key variables of the study. The study results show that there is a significant positive relationship between the PF dollar amounts from the IsDB and the GNI Per Capita, PPP in these 57 countries. Therefore, countries that receive higher PF dollar amounts from the IsDB, generally have more GNI Per Capita, PPP (less poverty) than their counterparts. It is, therefore, recommendable for countries to formulate policies that facilitate Islamically financed projects to mitigate poverty. This paper develops policy discussions regarding allocation of political attention to the policy topics on poverty mitigation, and their relation to financing projects Islamically, thus generate information on policy choices regarding the Islamic financing alternative.

Keywords: gross-national-income, IsDB-project-financing, public policy, poverty

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2310 Apoptosis Activity of Persea declinata (Bl.) Kosterm Bark Methanolic Crude Extract

Authors: P. Narrima, C. Y. Looi, M. A. Mohd, H. M. Ali

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Persea declinata (Bl.) Kosterm is a member of the Lauraceae family, widely distributed in Southeast Asia. It is from the same genus with avocado (Persea americana Mill), which is widely consumed as food and for medicinal purposes. In the present study, we examined the anticancer properties of Persea declinata (Bl.) Kosterm bark methanolic crude extract (PDM). PDM exhibited a potent antiproliferative effect in MCF-7 human breast cancer cells, with an IC50 value of 16.68 µg/mL after 48h of treatment. We observed that PDM caused cell cycle arrest and subsequent apoptosis in MCF-7 cells, as exhibited by increased population at G0/G1 phase, higher lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) release, and DNA fragmentation. Mechanistic studies showed that PDM caused significant elevation in ROS production, leading to perturbation of mitochondrial membrane potential, cell permeability, and activation of caspases-3/7. On the other hand, real-time PCR and Western blot analysis showed that PDM treatment increased the expression of the proapoptotic molecule, Bax, but decreased the expression of prosurvival proteins, Bcl-2 and Bcl-xL, in a dose-dependent manner. These findings imply that PDM could inhibit proliferation in MCF-7 cells via cell cycle arrest and apoptosis induction, indicating its potential as a therapeutic agent worthy of further development.

Keywords: antiproliferative, apoptosis, MCF-7 human breast cancer, Persea declinata

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2309 A Systemic Maturity Model

Authors: Emir H. Pernet, Jeimy J. Cano

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Maturity models, used descriptively to explain changes in reality or normatively to guide managers to make interventions to make organizations more effective and efficient, are based on the principles of statistical quality control promulgated by Shewhart in the years 30, and on the principles of PDCA continuous improvement (Plan, Do, Check, Act) developed by Deming and Juran. Some frameworks developed over the concept of maturity models includes COBIT, CMM, and ITIL. This paper presents some limitations of traditional maturity models, most of them based on points of reflection and analysis done by some authors. Almost all limitations are related to the mechanistic and reductionist approach of the principles over those models are built. As Systems Theory helps the understanding of the dynamics of organizations and organizational change, the development of a systemic maturity model can help to overcome some of those limitations. This document proposes a systemic maturity model, based on a systemic conceptualization of organizations, focused on the study of the functioning of the parties, the relationships among them, and their behavior as a whole. The concept of maturity from the system theory perspective is conceptually defined as an emergent property of the organization, which arises from as a result of the degree of alignment and integration of their processes. This concept is operationalized through a systemic function that measures the maturity of an organization, and finally validated by the measuring of maturity in organizations. For its operationalization and validation, the model was applied to measure the maturity of organizational Governance, Risk and Compliance (GRC) processes.

Keywords: GRC, maturity model, systems theory, viable system model

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2308 Estimation of Probabilistic Fatigue Crack Propagation Models of AZ31 Magnesium Alloys under Various Load Ratio Conditions by Using the Interpolation of a Random Variable

Authors: Seon Soon Choi

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The essential purpose is to present the good fatigue crack propagation model describing a stochastic fatigue crack growth behavior in a rolled magnesium alloy, AZ31, under various load ratio conditions. Fatigue crack propagation experiments were carried out in laboratory air under four conditions of load ratio, R, using AZ31 to investigate the crack growth behavior. The stochastic fatigue crack growth behavior was analyzed using an interpolation of random variable, Z, introduced to an empirical fatigue crack propagation model. The empirical fatigue models used in this study are Paris-Erdogan model, Walker model, Forman model, and modified Forman model. It was found that the random variable is useful in describing the stochastic fatigue crack growth behaviors under various load ratio conditions. The good probabilistic model describing a stochastic fatigue crack growth behavior under various load ratio conditions was also proposed.

Keywords: magnesium alloys, fatigue crack propagation model, load ratio, interpolation of random variable

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2307 An Empirical Study of the Best Fitting Probability Distributions for Stock Returns Modeling

Authors: Jayanta Pokharel, Gokarna Aryal, Netra Kanaal, Chris Tsokos

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Investment in stocks and shares aims to seek potential gains while weighing the risk of future needs, such as retirement, children's education etc. Analysis of the behavior of the stock market returns and making prediction is important for investors to mitigate risk on investment. Historically, the normal variance models have been used to describe the behavior of stock market returns. However, the returns of the financial assets are actually skewed with higher kurtosis, heavier tails, and a higher center than the normal distribution. The Laplace distribution and its family are natural candidates for modeling stock returns. The Variance-Gamma (VG) distribution is the most sought-after distributions for modeling asset returns and has been extensively discussed in financial literatures. In this paper, it explore the other Laplace family, such as Asymmetric Laplace, Skewed Laplace, Kumaraswamy Laplace (KS) together with Variance-Gamma to model the weekly returns of the S&P 500 Index and it's eleven business sector indices. The method of maximum likelihood is employed to estimate the parameters of the distributions and our empirical inquiry shows that the Kumaraswamy Laplace distribution performs much better for stock returns modeling among the choice of distributions used in this study and in practice, KS can be used as a strong alternative to VG distribution.

Keywords: stock returns, variance-gamma, kumaraswamy laplace, maximum likelihood

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2306 River Stage-Discharge Forecasting Based on Multiple-Gauge Strategy Using EEMD-DWT-LSSVM Approach

Authors: Farhad Alizadeh, Alireza Faregh Gharamaleki, Mojtaba Jalilzadeh, Houshang Gholami, Ali Akhoundzadeh

Abstract:

This study presented hybrid pre-processing approach along with a conceptual model to enhance the accuracy of river discharge prediction. In order to achieve this goal, Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition algorithm (EEMD), Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) and Mutual Information (MI) were employed as a hybrid pre-processing approach conjugated to Least Square Support Vector Machine (LSSVM). A conceptual strategy namely multi-station model was developed to forecast the Souris River discharge more accurately. The strategy used herein was capable of covering uncertainties and complexities of river discharge modeling. DWT and EEMD was coupled, and the feature selection was performed for decomposed sub-series using MI to be employed in multi-station model. In the proposed feature selection method, some useless sub-series were omitted to achieve better performance. Results approved efficiency of the proposed DWT-EEMD-MI approach to improve accuracy of multi-station modeling strategies.

Keywords: river stage-discharge process, LSSVM, discrete wavelet transform, Ensemble Empirical Decomposition Mode, multi-station modeling

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2305 The Contribution of Community Involvement in Heritage Management

Authors: Esraa Alhadad

Abstract:

Recently, there has been considerable debate surrounding the definition, conservation, and management of heritage. Over the past few years, there has been a growing call for the inclusion of local communities in heritage management. However, the perspectives on involvement, especially concerning key stakeholders like community members, often diverge significantly. While the theoretical foundation for community involvement is reasonably established, the application of this approach in heritage management has been sluggish. Achieving a balance to fulfill the diverse goals of stakeholders in any involvement project proves challenging in practice. Consequently, there is a dearth of empirical studies exploring the practical implications of effective tools in heritage management, and limited indication exists to persuade current authorities, such as governmental organizations, to share their influence with local community members. This research project delves into community involvement within heritage management as a potent means of constructing a robust management framework. Its objective is to assess both the extent and caliber of involvement within the management of heritage sites overall, utilizing a cultural mapping-centered methodology. The findings of this study underscore the significance of engaging the local community in both heritage management and planning endeavors. Ultimately, this investigation furnishes crucial empirical evidence and extrapolates valuable theoretical and practical insights that advance understanding of cultural mapping in pivotal areas, including the catalysts for involvement and collaborative decision-making processes.

Keywords: community involvement, heritage management, cultural mapping, stakeholder mangement

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2304 Problems in Establishing Alliances to Comply with SDG 17 in the Successful Execution of Environmental Conservation Projects

Authors: Elena Bulmer

Abstract:

The research for this study has found that the formation of alliances for the successful revitalization of the global partnership for sustainable development, as defined by UN Sustainable Development Goal 17, entails considerable difficulty. This study uses for its empirical work marine environmental conservation projects and analyses the potential involvement of nonhuman actors as primordial stakeholders in these types of projects. The idea is to extend the scope of SDG 17 for it to also consider nonhuman subjects in order for it to better achieve its goal. The results of this study may be extrapolated to the business and management fields, which depend on natural resources for the development of their products. In the same way, in these areas, natural resources as nonhuman actors are not present in the stakeholder maps of these projects. Environmental Conservation projects are thus especially interesting to study with regards to their stakeholder context and have been used as the experimental setting for the empirical work of this study. The primordial stakeholders of these projects are not social objects and therefore go beyond the present limits of present stakeholder theory. The study that has been used to analyse this concept is a marine conservation project based in Spain, and to shed light in potential extending the role of the 17th Sustainable Development Goal to include nonhuman beings to be able to better achieve the rest of the SDGs, in this case, SDG 14 whose aim is to promote the conservation and sustainability of the world´s oceans.

Keywords: SDG 17, sustainability, stakeholder management, environmental conservation projects

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2303 Taylor’s Law and Relationship between Life Expectancy at Birth and Variance in Age at Death in Period Life Table

Authors: David A. Swanson, Lucky M. Tedrow

Abstract:

Taylor’s Law is a widely observed empirical pattern that relates variances to means in sets of non-negative measurements via an approximate power function, which has found application to human mortality. This study adds to this research by showing that Taylor’s Law leads to a model that reasonably describes the relationship between life expectancy at birth (e0, which also is equal to mean age at death in a life table) and variance at age of death in seven World Bank regional life tables measured at two points in time, 1970 and 2000. Using as a benchmark a non-random sample of four Japanese female life tables covering the period from 1950 to 2004, the study finds that the simple linear model provides reasonably accurate estimates of variance in age at death in a life table from e0, where the latter range from 60.9 to 85.59 years. Employing 2017 life tables from the Human Mortality Database, the simple linear model is used to provide estimates of variance at age in death for six countries, three of which have high e0 values and three of which have lower e0 values. The paper provides a substantive interpretation of Taylor’s Law relative to e0 and concludes by arguing that reasonably accurate estimates of variance in age at death in a period life table can be calculated using this approach, which also can be used where e0 itself is estimated rather than generated through the construction of a life table, a useful feature of the model.

Keywords: empirical pattern, mean age at death in a life table, mean age of a stationary population, stationary population

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2302 Coupled Analysis for Hazard Modelling of Debris Flow Due to Extreme Rainfall

Authors: N. V. Nikhil, S. R. Lee, Do Won Park

Abstract:

Korean peninsula receives about two third of the annual rainfall during summer season. The extreme rainfall pattern due to typhoon and heavy rainfall results in severe mountain disasters among which 55% of them are debris flows, a major natural hazard especially when occurring around major settlement areas. The basic mechanism underlined for this kind of failure is the unsaturated shallow slope failure by reduction of matric suction due to infiltration of water and liquefaction of the failed mass due to generation of positive pore water pressure leading to abrupt loss of strength and commencement of flow. However only an empirical model cannot simulate this complex mechanism. Hence, we have employed an empirical-physical based approach for hazard analysis of debris flow using TRIGRS, a debris flow initiation criteria and DAN3D in mountain Woonmyun, South Korea. Debris flow initiation criteria is required to discern the potential landslides which can transform into debris flow. DAN-3D, being a new model, does not have the calibrated values of rheology parameters for Korean conditions. Thus, in our analysis we have used the recent 2011 debris flow event in mountain Woonmyun san for calibration of both TRIGRS model and DAN-3D, thereafter identifying and predicting the debris flow initiation points, path, run out velocity, and area of spreading for future extreme rainfall based scenarios.

Keywords: debris flow, DAN-3D, extreme rainfall, hazard analysis

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2301 The Effects of Anthropomorphism on Complex Technological Innovations

Authors: Chyi Jaw

Abstract:

Many companies have suffered as a result of consumers’ rejection of complex new products and experienced huge losses in the market. Marketers have to understand what block from new technology adoption or positive product attitude may exist in the market. This research examines the effects of techno-complexity and anthropomorphism on consumer psychology and product attitude when new technologies are introduced to the market. This study conducted a pretest and a 2 x 2 between-subjects experiment. Four simulated experimental web pages were constructed to collect data. The empirical analysis tested the moderation-mediation relationships among techno-complexity, technology anxiety, ability, and product attitude. These empirical results indicate (1) Techno-complexity of an innovation is negatively related to consumers’ product attitude, as well as increases consumers’ technology anxiety and reduces their self-ability perception. (2) Consumers’ technology anxiety and ability perception towards an innovation completely mediate the relationship between techno-complexity and product attitude. (3) Product anthropomorphism is positively related to consumers’ attitude of new technology, and also significantly moderates the effect of techno-complexity in the hypothesized model. In this work, the study presents the moderation-mediation model and the effects of anthropomorphized strategy, which describes how managers can better predict and influence the diffusion of complex technological innovations.

Keywords: ability, anthropomorphic effect, innovation, techno-complexity, technology anxiety

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2300 Compression Index Estimation by Water Content and Liquid Limit and Void Ratio Using Statistics Method

Authors: Lizhou Chen, Abdelhamid Belgaid, Assem Elsayed, Xiaoming Yang

Abstract:

Compression index is essential in foundation settlement calculation. The traditional method for determining compression index is consolidation test which is expensive and time consuming. Many researchers have used regression methods to develop empirical equations for predicting compression index from soil properties. Based on a large number of compression index data collected from consolidation tests, the accuracy of some popularly empirical equations were assessed. It was found that primary compression index is significantly overestimated in some equations while it is underestimated in others. The sensitivity analyses of soil parameters including water content, liquid limit and void ratio were performed. The results indicate that the compression index obtained from void ratio is most accurate. The ANOVA (analysis of variance) demonstrates that the equations with multiple soil parameters cannot provide better predictions than the equations with single soil parameter. In other words, it is not necessary to develop the relationships between compression index and multiple soil parameters. Meanwhile, it was noted that secondary compression index is approximately 0.7-5.0% of primary compression index with an average of 2.0%. In the end, the proposed prediction equations using power regression technique were provided that can provide more accurate predictions than those from existing equations.

Keywords: compression index, clay, settlement, consolidation, secondary compression index, soil parameter

Procedia PDF Downloads 131