Search results for: dollarization

Authors: Layal Mansour

Abstract:

This paper breaks down Egypt’s financial crisis by constructing a customized financial stress index by including the vulnerable economic indicator “dollarization” as a vulnerable indicator in the credit and exchange sector. The Financial Stress Index for Egypt (FSIE) includes informative vulnerable indicators of the main financial sectors: the banking sector, the equities market, and the foreign exchange market. It is calculated on a monthly basis from 2010 to December 2022, so to report the two recent world’s most devastating financial crises: Covid 19 crisis and Ukraine-Russia War, in addition to the local 2016 and 2022 financial crises. We proceed first by a graphical analysis then by empirical analysis in running under Vector Autoregression (VAR) Model, dynamic causality tests between foreign reserves, dollarization rate, and FSIE. The graphical analysis shows that unexpectedly, Egypt’s economy seems to be immune to internal economic/political instabilities, however it is highly exposed to the foreign and exchange market. Empirical analysis confirms the graphical observations and proves that dollarization, or more precisely debt in foreign currency seems to be the main trigger of Egypt’s current financial crisis.

Keywords: egypt, financial crisis, financial stress index, dollarization, VAR model, causality tests

Procedia PDF Downloads 57

Authors: Laila Algalal, Chen Xi

Abstract:

The US dollar has long served as the world's primary reserve currency. However, this dominance faces growing challenges from internal US economic pressures and the rise of alternative currencies. Internally, issues like high debt, inflation, reduced competitiveness, and economic instability due to inequality in economic policies threaten the dollar's position. Externally, more countries are establishing alternative currencies, payment systems, and regional financial institutions to reduce dollar dependence. These drivers have contributed to a decline in the dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves from 71% in 2001 to an estimated 58% in 2022. While this 13-percentage point drop took two decades, recent initiatives suggest de-dollarization could accelerate in the coming few decades. Efforts to establish non-dollar trade deals and alternative financial systems show more substantial progress compared to initiatives in the early 2000s. As the nature of the world system is anarchic, states make either individual or group efforts to guarantee their economic security and achieve their interests. Based on neoclassical realism, this paper analyzes both internal and external US economic factors driving current and future de-dollarization and the implications on the international monetary system, in addition to examining the motivation for such moves.

Keywords: de-dollarization, US dollar, monetary system, economic security, economic policies.

Procedia PDF Downloads 38