Search results for: marginalization error

Authors: Tammeen Siraj, Wenxing Zhou, Terry Huang, Mohammad Al-Amin

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The high resolution inline inspection (ILI) tool is used extensively in the pipeline industry to identify, locate, and measure metal-loss corrosion anomalies on buried oil and gas steel pipelines. Corrosion anomalies may occur singly (i.e. individual anomalies) or as clusters (i.e. a colony of corrosion anomalies). Although the ILI technology has advanced immensely, there are measurement errors associated with the sizes of corrosion anomalies reported by ILI tools due limitations of the tools and associated sizing algorithms, and detection threshold of the tools (i.e. the minimum detectable feature dimension). Quantifying the measurement error in the ILI data is crucial for corrosion management and developing maintenance strategies that satisfy the safety and economic constraints. Studies on the measurement error associated with the length of the corrosion anomalies (in the longitudinal direction of the pipeline) has been scarcely reported in the literature and will be investigated in the present study. Limitations in the ILI tool and clustering process can sometimes cause clustering error, which is defined as the error introduced during the clustering process by including or excluding a single or group of anomalies in or from a cluster. Clustering error has been found to be one of the biggest contributory factors for relatively high uncertainties associated with ILI reported anomaly length. As such, this study focuses on developing a consistent and comprehensive framework to quantify the measurement errors in the ILI-reported anomaly length by comparing the ILI data and corresponding field measurements for individual and clustered corrosion anomalies. The analysis carried out in this study is based on the ILI and field measurement data for a set of anomalies collected from two segments of a buried natural gas pipeline currently in service in Alberta, Canada. Data analyses showed that the measurement error associated with the ILI-reported length of the anomalies without clustering error, denoted as Type I anomalies is markedly less than that for anomalies with clustering error, denoted as Type II anomalies. A methodology employing data mining techniques is further proposed to classify the Type I and Type II anomalies based on the ILI-reported corrosion anomaly information.

Keywords: clustered corrosion anomaly, corrosion anomaly assessment, corrosion anomaly length, individual corrosion anomaly, metal-loss corrosion, oil and gas steel pipeline

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Authors: Chantima Wangsomchok

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The main purposes of this study are (1) to test the students’ communicative competence within six main functions: greeting, parting, thanking, offering, requesting and suggesting, (2) to employ error analysis in the students’ communicative competence within those functions, and (3) to compare the characteristics of the error found from the investigation. The subjects of the study is 328 first-year undergraduates taking the Foundation English course in the first semester of the 2008 academic year at Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University. This study found that while the subjects showed high communicative competence in the use of the following three functions: greeting, thanking, and offering, they seemed to show poor communicative competence in suggesting, requesting and parting instead. In addition, this study found that the grammatical errors were likely to be most frequently found in the parting function. In the same way, the type of errors which were less frequently found was in the functions of thanking and requesting respectively. Instead, the students tended to have high pragmatic failure in the use of greeting and suggesting functions.

Keywords: error analysis, functions of English language, communicative competence, cognitive science

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Authors: Dylan Elliott, Katya Pertsova

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Preposition errors are some of the most common errors created by L2 speakers. In addition, improving error correction and detection methods remains an open issue in the realm of Natural Language Processing (NLP). This research investigates whether the bidirectional encoder representations from the transformers model (BERT) have the potential to correct preposition errors accurately enough to be useful in error correction software. This research finds that BERT performs strongly when the scope of its error correction is limited to preposition choice. The researchers used an open-source BERT model and over three hundred thousand edited sentences from Wikipedia, tagged for part of speech, where only a preposition edit had occurred. To test BERT’s ability to detect errors, a technique known as multi-level masking was used to generate suggestions based on sentence context for every prepositional environment in the test data. These suggestions were compared with the original errors in the data and their known corrections to evaluate BERT’s performance. The suggestions were further analyzed to determine if BERT more often agreed with the judgements of the Wikipedia editors. Both the untrained and fined-tuned models were compared. Finetuning led to a greater rate of error-detection which significantly improved recall, but lowered precision due to an increase in false positives or falsely flagged errors. However, in most cases, these false positives were not errors in preposition usage but merely cases where more than one preposition was possible. Furthermore, when BERT correctly identified an error, the model largely agreed with the Wikipedia editors, suggesting that BERT’s ability to detect misused prepositions is better than previously believed. To evaluate to what extent BERT’s false positives were grammatical suggestions, we plan to do a further crowd-sourcing study to test the grammaticality of BERT’s suggested sentence corrections against native speakers’ judgments.

Keywords: BERT, grammatical error correction, preposition error detection, prepositions

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Authors: Yukiko Sasaki Alam

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This research aims at finding out the causes that led to wrong lexical selections in machine translation (MT) rather than categorizing lexical errors, which has been a main practice in error analysis. By manually examining and analyzing lexical errors outputted by a MT system, it suggests what knowledge would help the system reduce lexical errors.

Keywords: machine translation, error analysis, lexical errors, evaluation

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Authors: Husain Rajib, K. S. Kishor, D. G. Jewel

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Background: Uncorrected refractive error is a common cause of preventable visual impairment in pediatric age group which can be lead to blindness but early detection of visual impairment can reduce the problem that will have good effective in education and more involve in social activities. Glasses are the cheapest and commonest form of correction of refractive errors. To achieve this, patient must exhibit good compliance to spectacle wear. Patient’s attitude and perception of glasses and eye health could affect compliance. Material and method: A Prospective community based cross sectional study was designed in order to evaluate the knowledge, attitude and practices about refractive errors and eye health amongst the primary school going children. Result: Among 140 respondents, 72 were males and 68 were females. We found 50 children were myopic and out of them 26 were male and 24 were female, 27 children were hyperopic and out of them 14 were male and 13 were female. About 63 children were astigmatic and out of them 32 were male and 31 were female. The level of knowledge, attitude was satisfactory. The attitude of the students, teachers and parents was cooperative which helps to do cycloplegic refraction. Practice was not satisfactory due to social stigma and information gap. Conclusion: Knowledge of refractive error and acceptance of glasses for the correction of uncorrected refractive error. Public awareness program such as vision screening program, eye camp, and teachers training program are more beneficial for wearing and prescribing spectacle.

Keywords: refractive error, stigma, knowledge, attitude, practice

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Authors: Leticia Cervantes, Edith Garcia, Oscar Castillo

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At today, there are several control problems where the main objective is to obtain the best control in the study to decrease the error in the application. Many techniques can use to control these problems such as Neural Networks, PID control, Fuzzy Logic, Optimization techniques and many more. In this case, fuzzy logic with fuzzy system and an optimization technique are used to control the case of study. In this case, Ant Lion Optimization is used to optimize a fuzzy system to control the velocity of a simple treadmill. The main objective is to achieve the control of the velocity in the control problem using the ALO optimization. First, a simple fuzzy system was used to control the velocity of the treadmill it has two inputs (error and error change) and one output (desired speed), then results were obtained but to decrease the error the ALO optimization was developed to optimize the fuzzy system of the treadmill. Having the optimization, the simulation was performed, and results can prove that using the ALO optimization the control of the velocity was better than a conventional fuzzy system. This paper describes some basic concepts to help to understand the idea in this work, the methodology of the investigation (control problem, fuzzy system design, optimization), the results are presented and the optimization is used for the fuzzy system. A comparison between the simple fuzzy system and the optimized fuzzy systems are presented where it can be proving the optimization improved the control with good results the major findings of the study is that ALO optimization is a good alternative to improve the control because it helped to decrease the error in control applications even using any control technique to optimized, As a final statement is important to mentioned that the selected methodology was good because the control of the treadmill was improve using the optimization technique.

Keywords: ant lion optimization, control problem, fuzzy control, fuzzy system

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Authors: Shirin Sadat Ahmadi

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The number of people, particularly university students, migrating from Iran and applying for American and European universities has been rising during recent years. Different people may have various reasons and goals for migration, but one of the common issues among all these people is the cultural challenges they experience when living in the adopted society. Immigrants usually confront obstacles during the Intercultural transition and adaption process. Different variables such as age, religion, gender, education, knowing the spoken language in destination country, financial condition, interactions with natives, and using social media can affect the cultural challenges people face after migration and how they conquer issues appearing due to intercultural differences and conflicts. In this research we have interviewed a sample consisted of 15 Iranian students living and studying abroad found by using snowball sampling technique via video call to realize what cultural challenges they have experienced in the new society, how the mentioned variables above eased these challenges or made them harder and what approaches and solutions they adopted to adjust themselves to the new society and its cultural dimensions. Based on John Berry's acculturation theory of migrant-host relationship, we have classified these 15 people in five different categories: Assimilation, Separation, Marginalization, and Integration. In addition we have considered Y.Y. Kim's communication-based theory of cross-cultural adaption to explain how communications helped migrant populations in adaption process. Based on the findings of this study, 12 of 15 interviewed members of the study used the integration strategy to adapt to the new cultural environment, 3 of them used the assimilation strategy, and none of them used marginalization or separation strategies. Communicating with natives, knowing the language, and education were the factors that helped all the interviewed members of the sample to overcome the difficulties of intercultural transition.

Keywords: acculturation, culture, intercultural transition, migration

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Authors: Guillaume Leduc

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In this paper, we describe a broad setting under which the error of the approximation can be quantified, controlled, and for which convergence occurs at a speed of n⁻¹ for European and American options. We describe how knowledge of the error allows for arbitrarily fast acceleration of the convergence.

Keywords: random walk approximation, European and American options, rate of convergence, option pricing

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Authors: Young-San Shin, Seongsoo Lee

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Hall sensor is widely used to measure rotation angle. When the Hall voltage is measured for linear displacement, it is converted to angular displacement using arctangent function, which requires a large lookup table. In this paper, a lookup table reduction technique is presented for angle measurement. When the input of the lookup table is small within a certain threshold, the change of the outputs with respect to the change of the inputs is relatively small. Thus, several inputs can share same output, which significantly reduce the lookup table size. Its error analysis was also performed, and the threshold was determined so as to maintain the error less than 1°. When the Hall voltage has 11-bit resolution, the lookup table size is reduced from 1,024 samples to 279 samples.

Keywords: hall sensor, angle measurement, lookup table, arctangent

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Authors: Mohamed O. Babana

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In wireless channel multipath is the propagation phenomena where the transmitted signal arrive at the receiver side with many of paths, the signal at these paths arrive with different time delay the results is random signal fading due to intersymbols interference(ISI). This paper deals with identification of orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) technology, and how it is used to overcome intersymbol interference due to multipath. Also investigates the effect of Additive White Gaussian Noise Channel (AWGN) on OFDM using multi-level modulation of Phase Shift Keying (PSK), computer simulation to calculate the bit error rate (BER) under AWGN channel is applied. A comparison study is carried out to obtain the Bit Error Rate performance for OFDM to identify the best multi-level modulation of PSK.

Keywords: intersymbol interference(ISI), bit error rate(BER), modulation, multiplexing, simulation

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Authors: João Rato, Nuno Costa

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The human verbal communication is a two-way process which requires a mutual understanding that will result in some considerations. This kind of communication, also called dialogue, besides the supposed human agents it can also be performed between human agents and machines. The interaction between Men and Machines, by means of a natural language, has an important role concerning the improvement of the communication between each other. Aiming at knowing the performance of some speech recognition systems, this document shows the results of the accomplished tests according to the Word Error Rate evaluation method. Besides that, it is also given a set of information linked to the systems of Man-Machine communication. After this work has been made, conclusions were drawn regarding the Speech Recognition Systems, among which it can be mentioned their poor performance concerning the voice interpretation in noisy environments.

Keywords: automatic speech recognition, man-machine conversation, speech recognition, spoken dialogue systems, word error rate

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Authors: Rahul Srivastava, Priti Pundir, Y. R. Sood, Rajnish Shrivastava

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For the interpretation of the signatures of sweep frequency response analysis(SFRA) of transformer different types of statistical techniques serves as an effective tool for doing either phase to phase comparison or sister unit comparison. In this paper with the discussion on SFRA several statistics techniques like cross correlation coefficient (CCF), root square error (RSQ), comparative standard deviation (CSD), Absolute difference, mean square error(MSE),Min-Max ratio(MM) are presented through several case studies. These methods require sample data size and spot frequencies of SFRA signatures that are being compared. The techniques used are based on power signal processing tools that can simplify result and limits can be created for the severity of the fault occurring in the transformer due to several short circuit forces or due to ageing. The advantages of using statistics techniques for analyzing of SFRA result are being indicated through several case studies and hence the results are obtained which determines the state of the transformer.

Keywords: absolute difference (DABS), cross correlation coefficient (CCF), mean square error (MSE), min-max ratio (MM-ratio), root square error (RSQ), standard deviation (CSD), sweep frequency response analysis (SFRA)

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Authors: R. Verwiebe, L. Seewann, M. Wolf

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This presentation addresses marginalization and discrimination as experienced by young academics with a migrant background in the Austrian labor market. Focusing on second generation academics of Central Eastern European and Turkish descent we explore two major issues. First, we ask whether their career-entry and everyday professional life entails origin-specific barriers. As educational residents, they show competences which, when lacking, tend to be drawn upon to explain discrimination: excellent linguistic skills, accredited high-level training, and networks. Second, we concentrate on how this group reacts to discrimination and overcomes experiences of marginalization. To answer these questions, we utilize recent sociological and social psychological theories that focus on the diversity of individual experiences. This distinguishes us from a long tradition of research that has dealt with the motives that inform discrimination, but has less often considered the effects on those concerned. Similarly, applied coping strategies have less often been investigated, though they may provide unique insights into current problematic issues. Building upon present literature, we follow recent discrimination research incorporating the concepts of ‘multiple discrimination’, ‘subtle discrimination’, and ‘visual social markers’. 21 problem-centered interviews are the empirical foundation underlying this study. The interviewees completed their entire educational career in Austria, graduated in different universities and disciplines and are working in their first post-graduate jobs (career entry phase). In our analysis, we combined thematic charting with a coding method. The results emanating from our empirical material indicated a variety of discrimination experiences ranging from barely perceptible disadvantages to directly articulated and overt marginalization. The spectrum of experiences covered stereotypical suppositions at job interviews, the disavowal of competencies, symbolic or social exclusion by new colleges, restricted professional participation (e.g. customer contact) and non-recruitment due to religious or ethnical markers (e.g. headscarves). In these experiences the role of the academics education level, networks, or competences seemed to be minimal, as negative prejudice on the basis of visible ‘social markers’ operated ‘ex-ante’. The coping strategies identified in overcoming such barriers are: an increased emphasis on effort, avoidance of potentially marginalizing situations, direct resistance (mostly in the form of verbal opposition) and dismissal of negative experiences by ignoring or ironizing the situation. In some cases, the academics drew into their specific competences, such as an intellectual approach of studying specialist literature, focus on their intercultural competences or planning to migrate back to their parent’s country of origin. Our analysis further suggests a distinction between reactive (i.e. to act on and respond to experienced discrimination) and preventative strategies (applied to obviate discrimination) of coping. In light of our results, we would like to stress that the tension between educational and professional success experienced by academics with a migrant background – and the barriers and marginalization they continue to face – are essential issues to be introduced to socio-political discourse. It seems imperative to publicly accentuate the growing social, political and economic significance of this group, their educational aspirations, as well as their experiences of achievement and difficulties.

Keywords: coping strategies, discrimination, labor market, second generation university graduates

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Authors: Hasan Basaran, Emre Unal

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Formation flying of satellites is a mission that involves a relative position keeping of different satellites in the constellation. In this study, different control algorithms are compared with one another in terms of ΔV, velocity increment, and tracking error. Various control methods, covering continuous and impulsive approaches are implemented and tested for satellites flying in low Earth orbit. Feedback linearization, sliding mode control, and model predictive control are designed and compared with an impulsive feedback law, which is based on mean orbital elements. Feedback linearization and sliding mode control approaches have identical mathematical models that include second order Earth oblateness effects. The model predictive control, on the other hand, does not include any perturbations and assumes circular chief orbit. The comparison is done with 4 different initial errors and achieved with velocity increment, root mean square error, maximum steady state error, and settling time. It was observed that impulsive law consumed the least ΔV, while produced the highest maximum error in the steady state. The continuous control laws, however, consumed higher velocity increments and produced lower amounts of tracking errors. Finally, the inversely proportional relationship between tracking error and velocity increment was established.

Keywords: chief-deputy satellites, feedback linearization, follower-leader satellites, formation flight, fuel consumption, model predictive control, rendezvous, sliding mode

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Authors: Sidra A. Shaikh, M. A. Ahmed, M. W. Akhtar

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Global and diffuse solar radiation studies have been carried out for Islamabad (Lat: 330 43’ N, Long: 370 71’) to access the solar potential of the area using sunshine hour data. A detailed analysis of global solar radiation values measured using several methods is presented. These values are then compared with the NASA SSE model. The variation in direct and diffuse components of solar radiation is observed in summer and winter months for Islamabad along with the clearness index KT. The diffuse solar radiation is found maximum in the month of July. Direct and beam radiation is found to be high in the month of April to June. From the results it appears that with the exception of monsoon months, July and August, solar radiation for electricity generation can be utilized very efficiently throughout the year. Finally, the mean bias error (MBE), root mean square error (RMSE) and mean percent error (MPE) for global solar radiation are also presented.

Keywords: solar potential, global and diffuse solar radiation, Islamabad, errors

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Authors: Wararit Panichkitkosolkul

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The unit root tests based on the robust estimator for the first-order autoregressive process are proposed and compared with the unit root tests based on the ordinary least squares (OLS) estimator. The percentiles of the null distributions of the unit root test are also reported. The empirical probabilities of Type I error and powers of the unit root tests are estimated via Monte Carlo simulation. Simulation results show that all unit root tests can control the probability of Type I error for all situations. The empirical power of the unit root tests based on the robust estimator are higher than the unit root tests based on the OLS estimator.

Keywords: autoregressive, ordinary least squares, type i error, power of the test, Monte Carlo simulation

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Authors: Rutej R. Mehta, Michael A. Chappell

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Introduction: Arterial spin labelling (ASL) is an increasingly popular perfusion MRI technique, in which arterial blood water is magnetically labelled in the neck before flowing into the brain, providing a non-invasive measure of cerebral blood flow (CBF). The accuracy of ASL CBF measurements, however, is hampered by dispersion effects; the distortion of the ASL labelled bolus during its transit through the vasculature. In spite of this, the current recommended implementation of ASL – the white paper (Alsop et al., MRM, 73.1 (2015): 102-116) – does not account for dispersion, which leads to the introduction of errors in CBF. Given that the transport time from the labelling region to the tissue – the arterial transit time (ATT) – depends on the region of the brain and the condition of the patient, it is likely that these errors will also vary with the ATT. In this study, various dispersion models are assessed in comparison with the white paper (WP) formula for CBF quantification, enabling the errors introduced by the WP to be quantified. Additionally, this study examines the relationship between the errors associated with the WP and the ATT – and how this is influenced by dispersion. Methods: Data were simulated using the standard model for pseudo-continuous ASL, along with various dispersion models, and then quantified using the formula in the WP. The ATT was varied from 0.5s-1.3s, and the errors associated with noise artefacts were computed in order to define the concept of significant error. The instantaneous slope of the error was also computed as an indicator of the sensitivity of the error with fluctuations in ATT. Finally, a regression analysis was performed to obtain the mean error against ATT. Results: An error of 20.9% was found to be comparable to that introduced by typical measurement noise. The WP formula was shown to introduce errors exceeding 20.9% for ATTs beyond 1.25s even when dispersion effects were ignored. Using a Gaussian dispersion model, a mean error of 16% was introduced by using the WP, and a dispersion threshold of σ=0.6 was determined, beyond which the error was found to increase considerably with ATT. The mean error ranged from 44.5% to 73.5% when other physiologically plausible dispersion models were implemented, and the instantaneous slope varied from 35 to 75 as dispersion levels were varied. Conclusion: It has been shown that the WP quantification formula holds only within an ATT window of 0.5 to 1.25s, and that this window gets narrower as dispersion occurs. Provided that the dispersion levels fall below the threshold evaluated in this study, however, the WP can measure CBF with reasonable accuracy if dispersion is correctly modelled by the Gaussian model. However, substantial errors were observed with other common models for dispersion with dispersion levels similar to those that have been observed in literature.

Keywords: arterial spin labelling, dispersion, MRI, perfusion

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Authors: Watcharin Sangma, Onsiri Chanmuang, Pitsanu Tongkhow

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A forecasting model for steel demand uncertainty in Thailand is proposed. It consists of trend, autocorrelation, and outliers in a hierarchical Bayesian frame work. The proposed model uses a cumulative Weibull distribution function, latent first-order autocorrelation, and binary selection, to account for trend, time-varying autocorrelation, and outliers, respectively. The Gibbs sampling Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used for parameter estimation. The proposed model is applied to steel demand index data in Thailand. The root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean absolute error (MAE) criteria are used for model comparison. The study reveals that the proposed model is more appropriate than the exponential smoothing method.

Keywords: forecasting model, steel demand uncertainty, hierarchical Bayesian framework, exponential smoothing method

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Authors: Rafsan Al Mamun, Md. Motaharul Islam, Rabana Tajrin, Nabiha Noor, Shafinaz Qader

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In an attempt to enrich the lives of billions of people by providing proper information, security and a way of communicating with others, the need for efficient and improved satellites is constantly growing. Thus, there is an increasing demand for better error detection and correction (EDAC) schemes, which are capable of protecting the data onboard the satellites. The paper is aimed towards detecting and correcting such errors using a special algorithm called the Hamming Code, which uses the concept of parity and parity bits to prevent single-bit errors onboard a satellite in Low Earth Orbit. This paper focuses on the study of Low Earth Orbit satellites and the process of generating the Hamming Code matrix to be used for EDAC using computer programs. The most effective version of Hamming Code generated was the Hamming (16, 11, 4) version using MATLAB, and the paper compares this particular scheme with other EDAC mechanisms, including other versions of Hamming Codes and Cyclic Redundancy Check (CRC), and the limitations of this scheme. This particular version of the Hamming Code guarantees single-bit error corrections as well as double-bit error detections. Furthermore, this version of Hamming Code has proved to be fast with a checking time of 5.669 nanoseconds, that has a relatively higher code rate and lower bit overhead compared to the other versions and can detect a greater percentage of errors per length of code than other EDAC schemes with similar capabilities. In conclusion, with the proper implementation of the system, it is quite possible to ensure a relatively uncorrupted satellite storage system.

Keywords: bit-flips, Hamming code, low earth orbit, parity bits, satellite, single error upset

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Authors: Abdel-Razzaq Mugdadi, Ruqayyah Sani

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The Kernel Distribution Function Estimator (KDFE) method is the most popular method for nonparametric estimation of the cumulative distribution function. The kernel and the bandwidth are the most important components of this estimator. In this investigation, we replace the kernel in the KDFE with a linear combination of kernels to obtain a new estimator based on the linear combination of kernels, the mean integrated squared error (MISE), asymptotic mean integrated squared error (AMISE) and the asymptotically optimal bandwidth for the new estimator are derived. We propose a new data-based method to select the bandwidth for the new estimator. The new technique is based on the Plug-in technique in density estimation. We evaluate the new estimator and the new technique using simulations and real-life data.

Keywords: estimation, bandwidth, mean square error, cumulative distribution function

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Authors: Y. T. Lee, J. H. Na, S. H. Kim, S. U. Hong

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In this study, an experimental research for estimation of slab depth, column size and location of rebar of concrete specimen is conducted using the Impact Echo Method (IE) based on stress wave among non-destructive test methods. Estimation of slab depth had total length of 1800×300 and 6 different depths including 150 mm, 180 mm, 210 mm, 240 mm, 270 mm and 300 mm. The concrete column specimen was manufactured by differentiating the size into 300×300×300 mm, 400×400×400 mm and 500×500×500 mm. In case of the specimen for estimation of rebar, rebar of ∅22 mm was used in a specimen of 300×370×200 and arranged at 130 mm and 150 mm from the top to the rebar top. As a result of error rate of slab depth was overall mean of 3.1%. Error rate of column size was overall mean of 1.7%. Mean error rate of rebar location was 1.72% for top, 1.19% for bottom and 1.5% for overall mean showing relative accuracy.

Keywords: impact echo method, estimation, slab depth, column size, rebar location, concrete

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Authors: K. Kouzi

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In order to have stable and high performance of direct torque and flux control (DTFC) of double star induction motor drive (DSIM), proper on-line adaptation of the stator resistance is very important. This is inevitably due to the variation of the stator resistance during operating conditions, which introduces error in estimated flux position and the magnitude of the stator flux. Error in the estimated stator flux deteriorates the performance of the DTFC drive. Also, the effect of error in estimation is very important especially at low speed. Due to this, our aim is to overcome the sensitivity of the DTFC to the stator resistance variation by proposing on-line fuzzy estimation stator resistance. The fuzzy estimation method is based on an on-line stator resistance correction through the variations of the stator current estimation error and its variations. The fuzzy logic controller gives the future stator resistance increment at the output. The main advantage of the suggested algorithm control is to avoid the drive instability that may occur in certain situations and ensure the tracking of the actual stator resistance. The validity of the technique and the improvement of the whole system performance are proved by the results.

Keywords: direct torque control, dual stator induction motor, Fuzzy Logic estimation, stator resistance adaptation

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Authors: Gu Pang, Bartosz Gebka

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We forecast the demand of total container throughput at the Indonesia’s largest seaport, Tanjung Priok Port. We propose four univariate forecasting models, including SARIMA, the additive Seasonal Holt-Winters, the multiplicative Seasonal Holt-Winters and the Vector Error Correction Model. Our aim is to provide insights into whether forecasting the total container throughput obtained by historical aggregated port throughput time series is superior to the forecasts of the total throughput obtained by summing up the best individual terminal forecasts. We test the monthly port/individual terminal container throughput time series between 2003 and 2013. The performance of forecasting models is evaluated based on Mean Absolute Error and Root Mean Squared Error. Our results show that the multiplicative Seasonal Holt-Winters model produces the most accurate forecasts of total container throughput, whereas SARIMA generates the worst in-sample model fit. The Vector Error Correction Model provides the best model fits and forecasts for individual terminals. Our results report that the total container throughput forecasts based on modelling the total throughput time series are consistently better than those obtained by combining those forecasts generated by terminal-specific models. The forecasts of total throughput until the end of 2018 provide an essential insight into the strategic decision-making on the expansion of port's capacity and construction of new container terminals at Tanjung Priok Port.

Keywords: SARIMA, Seasonal Holt-Winters, Vector Error Correction Model, container throughput

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Authors: Rufus Temidayo Akinnubi, M. O. Adeniyi

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Existing diurnal air temperature models simulate night time air temperature over Nigeria with high biases. An improved parameterization is presented for modeling the diurnal pattern of air temperature (Ta) which is applicable in the calculation of turbulent heat fluxes in Global climate models, based on Nigeria Micrometeorological Experimental site (NIMEX) surface layer observations. Five diurnal Ta models for estimating hourly Ta from daily maximum, daily minimum, and daily mean air temperature were validated using root-mean-square error (RMSE), Mean Error Bias (MBE) and scatter graphs. The original Fourier series model showed better performance for unstable air temperature parameterizations while the stable Ta was strongly overestimated with a large error. The model was improved with the inclusion of the atmospheric cooling rate that accounts for the temperature inversion that occurs during the nocturnal boundary layer condition. The MBE and RMSE estimated by the modified Fourier series model reduced by 4.45 oC and 3.12 oC during the transitional period from dry to wet stable atmospheric conditions. The modified Fourier series model gave good estimation of the diurnal weather patterns of Ta when compared with other existing models for a tropical environment.

Keywords: air temperature, mean bias error, Fourier series analysis, surface energy balance,

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Authors: El Andari Chifaa, Bouaziz Rached

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The central focus of this paper was to check whether the Okun’s law in Tunisia is valid or not. For this purpose, we have used quarterly time series data during the period 1990Q1-2014Q1. Firstly, we applied the error correction model instead of the difference version of Okun's Law, the Engle-Granger and Johansen test are employed to find out long run association between unemployment, production, and how error correction mechanism (ECM) is used for short run dynamic. Secondly, we used the gap version of Okun’s law where the estimation is done from three band pass filters which are mathematical tools used in macro-economic and especially in business cycles theory. The finding of the study indicates that the inverse relationship between unemployment and output is verified in the short and long term, and the Okun's law holds for the Tunisian economy, but with an Okun’s coefficient lower than required. Therefore, our empirical results have important implications for structural and cyclical policymakers in Tunisia to promote economic growth in a context of lower unemployment growth.

Keywords: Okun’s law, validity, unit root, cointegration, error correction model, bandpass filters

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Authors: Matteo Bonaventura, Giancarlo Giudici

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This paper analyses the valuation process of companies listed on the Italian Exchange in the period 2000-2009 at their Initial Public Offering (IPO). One the most common valuation techniques declared in the IPO prospectus to determine the offer price is the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method. We develop a ‘reverse engineering’ model to discover the short term profitability implied in the offer prices. We show that there is a significant optimistic bias in the estimation of future profitability compared to ex-post actual realization and the mean forecast error is substantially large. Yet we show that such error characterizes also the estimations carried out by analysts evaluating non-IPO companies. The forecast error is larger the faster has been the recent growth of the company, the higher is the leverage of the IPO firm, the more companies issued equity on the market. IPO companies generally exhibit better operating performance before the listing, with respect to comparable listed companies, while after the flotation they do not perform significantly different in term of return on invested capital. Pre-IPO book building activity plays a significant role in partially reducing the forecast error and revising expectations, while the market price of the first day of trading does not contain information for further reducing forecast errors.

Keywords: initial public offerings, DCF, book building, post-IPO profitability drop

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Authors: Elham Alaee, Mousa Shamsi, Hossein Ahmadi, Soroosh Nazem, Mohammad Hossein Sedaaghi

Abstract:

Human face has a fundamental role in the appearance of individuals. So the importance of facial surgeries is undeniable. Thus, there is a need for the appropriate and accurate facial skin segmentation in order to extract different features. Since Fuzzy C-Means (FCM) clustering algorithm doesn’t work appropriately for noisy images and outliers, in this paper we exploit Possibilistic C-Means (PCM) algorithm in order to segment the facial skin. For this purpose, first, we convert facial images from RGB to YCbCr color space. To evaluate performance of the proposed algorithm, the database of Sahand University of Technology, Tabriz, Iran was used. In order to have a better understanding from the proposed algorithm; FCM and Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithms are also used for facial skin segmentation. The proposed method shows better results than the other segmentation methods. Results include misclassification error (0.032) and the region’s area error (0.045) for the proposed algorithm.

Keywords: facial image, segmentation, PCM, FCM, skin error, facial surgery

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Authors: Mojtaba Valinataj

Abstract:

Nowadays reversible logic has received many attentions as one of the new fields for reducing the power consumption. On the other hand, the processing systems have weaknesses against different external effects. In this paper, some error detecting reversible logic serial multipliers are proposed by incorporating the parity-preserving gates. This way, the new designs are presented for signed parity-preserving serial multipliers based on the Booth's algorithm by exploiting the new arrangements of existing gates. The experimental results show that the proposed 4×4 multipliers in this paper reach up to 20%, 35%, and 41% enhancements in the number of constant inputs, quantum cost, and gate count, respectively, as the reversible logic criteria, compared to previous designs. Furthermore, all the proposed designs have been generalized for n×n multipliers with general formulations to estimate the main reversible logic criteria as the functions of the multiplier size.

Keywords: Booth’s algorithm, error detection, multiplication, parity-preserving gates, quantum computers, reversible logic

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Authors: Aye Pa Pa Myo

Abstract:

Writing in English is accounted as a complex process for English as a foreign language learners. Besides, committing errors in writing can be found as an inevitable part of language learners’ writing. Generally, academic writing is quite difficult for most of the students to manage for getting better scores. Students can commit common errors in their writings when they try to write academic writing. Error analysis deals with identifying and detecting the errors and also explains the reason for the occurrence of these errors. In this paper, the researcher has an attempt to examine the common errors of undergraduate students in their academic writings at Pathein University. The purpose of doing this research is to investigate the errors which students usually commit in academic writing and to find out the better ways for correcting these errors in EFL classrooms. In this research, fifty-third-year non-English specialization students attending Pathein University were selected as participants. This research took one month. It was conducted with a mixed methodology method. Two mini-tests were used as research tools. Data were collected with a quantitative research method. Findings from this research pointed that most of the students noticed their common errors after getting the necessary input, and they became more decreased committing these errors after taking mini-test; hence, all findings will be supportive for further researches related to error analysis in academic writing.

Keywords: academic writing, error analysis, EFL learners, mini-tests, mixed methodology

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Authors: Brahim Boukabcha, Amar Rebbouh

Abstract:

The bootstrap method based on the idea of exploiting all the information provided by the initial sample, allows us to study the properties of estimators. In this article we will present a theoretical study on the different methods of bootstrapping and using the technique of re-sampling in statistics inference to calculate the standard error of means of an estimator and determining a confidence interval for an estimated parameter. We apply these methods tested in the regression models and Pareto model, giving the best approximations.

Keywords: bootstrap, error standard, bias, jackknife, mean, median, variance, confidence interval, regression models

Procedia PDF Downloads 354