Search results for: irregular demand

Authors: Patricia Calvo, Francisco M. Sánchez, María J. Rodríguez

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Nowadays, food intake is becoming more irregular due to changes in family organization and lifestyle. Snacking is part of the day-to-day lives of people, however, most of the snacks have a high saturated fat, salt and refined sugar content; these dietary factors are believed to have negative health consequences. For this reason, there has been an increase in consumer demand for healthy, natural and convenient foods, so the development of a significant portion of new products focuses on improving the nutritional value of food snacks through modification its nutritional composition. In this paper, a new product made from vegetables has been designed. This new product would be an ideal food format to include ingredients with positive health benefits.

Keywords: healthy, pepper, dried, carotenes, polyphenols

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Authors: Chayanon Hansapinyo

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This paper presents experimental investigation and finite element analysis on buckling behavior of irregular section cold-formed steel columns under axially concentric loading. For the experimental study, four different sections of columns were tested to investigate effect of stiffening and width-to-thickness ratio on buckling behavior. For each of the section, three lengths of 230, 950 and 1900 mm. were studied representing short, intermediate long and long columns, respectively. Then, nonlinear finite element analyses of the tested columns were performed. The comparisons in terms of load-deformation response and buckling mode show good agreement and hence the FEM models were validated. Parametric study of stiffening element and thickness of 1.0, 1.15, 1.2, 1.5, 1.6 and 2.0 mm. were analyzed. The test results showed that stiffening effect pays a large contribution to prevent distortional mode. The increase in wall thickness enhanced buckling stress beyond the yielding strength in short and intermediate columns, but not for the long columns.

Keywords: buckling behavior, irregular section, cold-formed steel, concentric loading

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Authors: Ahmed Hamza Yache

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The main purpose of this study is to estimate the distribution of shear forces in building structures with asymmetries in the plan submitted to seismic forces can cause, in this case, simultaneous deformations of translation and torsion. To this end, the distribution of shear forces is obtained by seismic forces calculated from the equivalent static method of the Algerian earthquake code RPA 99 (2003 version) and spectral modal analysis for an irregular building plan without kinks. Comparison of the results obtained by these two methods used to highlight the difference in terms of distributions of shear forces in such structures.

Keywords: structure, irregular, code, seismic, method, force, period

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Authors: Rama Bhargava, Surabhi Nishad

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The infusion of nanofluids has dramatically enhanced the heat-carrying capacity of the fluids, applicable to many engineering and medical process where the temperature below freezing is required. Cryosurgery is an efficient therapy for the treatment of cancer, but sometimes the excessive cooling may harm the nearby healthy cells. Efforts are therefore done to develop a model which can cause to generate the low temperature as required. In the present study, a mathematical model is developed based on the bioheat transfer equation to simulate the heat transfer from the probe on a tumor (with irregular domain) using the hybrid technique consisting of element free Galerkin method with αα-family of approximation. The probe is loaded will nano-particles. The effects of different nanoparticles, namely Al₂O₃, Fe₃O₄, Au on the heat-producing rate, is obtained. It is observed that the temperature can be brought to (60°C)-(-30°C) at a faster freezing rate on the infusion of different nanoparticles. Besides increasing the freezing rate, the volume of the nanoparticle can also control the size and growth of ice crystals formed during the freezing process. The study is also made to find the time required to achieve the desired temperature. The problem is further extended for multi tumors of different shapes and sizes. The irregular shape of the frozen domain and the direction of ice growth are very sensitive issues, posing a challenge for simulation. The Meshfree method has been one of the accurate methods in such problems as a domain is naturally irregular. The discretization is done using the nodes only. MLS approximation is taken in order to generate the shape functions. Sufficiently accurate results are obtained.

Keywords: cryosurgery, EFGM, hybrid, nanoparticles

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Authors: Baghdasaryan Marinka

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The operation modes of the synchronous motors used in the production processes are greatly conditioned by the accidentally changing technological and power indices.  As a result, the electrical drive synchronous motor may appear in irregular operation regimes. Although there are numerous works devoted to the development of the regulator for the synchronous motor operation modes, their application for the motors working in the irregular modes is not expedient. In this work, to estimate the issues concerning the stability of the synchronous electrical drive system, the transfer functions of the electrical drive synchronous motors operating in the synchronous and induction modes have been obtained.  For that purpose, a model for investigating the frequency characteristics has been developed in the LabView environment. Frequency characteristics for assessing the transient process of the electrical drive system, operating in the synchronous and induction modes have been obtained, and based on their assessment, a regulator for improving the operation modes of the motor has been proposed. The proposed regulator can be successfully used to prevent the irregular modes of the electrical drive synchronous motor, as well as to estimate the operation state of the drive motor of the mechanism with a changing load.

Keywords: electrical drive system, synchronous motor, regulator, stability, transition process

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Authors: Dalin Si, Azizan Aziz, Bertrand Lasternas

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To encourage building owners to purchase electricity at the wholesale market and reduce building peak demand, this study aims to develop models that predict day-ahead hourly electricity consumption and demand using artificial neural network (ANN) and support vector machine (SVM). All prediction models are built in Python, with tool Scikit-learn and Pybrain. The input data for both consumption and demand prediction are time stamp, outdoor dry bulb temperature, relative humidity, air handling unit (AHU), supply air temperature and solar radiation. Solar radiation, which is unavailable a day-ahead, is predicted at first, and then this estimation is used as an input to predict consumption and demand. Models to predict consumption and demand are trained in both SVM and ANN, and depend on cooling or heating, weekdays or weekends. The results show that ANN is the better option for both consumption and demand prediction. It can achieve 15.50% to 20.03% coefficient of variance of root mean square error (CVRMSE) for consumption prediction and 22.89% to 32.42% CVRMSE for demand prediction, respectively. To conclude, the presented models have potential to help building owners to purchase electricity at the wholesale market, but they are not robust when used in demand response control.

Keywords: building energy prediction, data mining, demand response, electricity market

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Authors: Timothy Akinwande, Eddie Hui, Karien Dekker

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Housing the urban poor remains a persistent challenge, despite evident research attention over many years. It is, therefore, pertinent to investigate affordable housing provision challenges with novel approaches. For innovative solutions to affordable housing constraints, it is apposite to thoroughly examine housing solutions vis a vis the key elements of the housing supply value chain (HSVC), which are housing finance, housing construction and land acquisition. A pragmatic analysis will examine affordable housing solutions from demand and supply perspectives to arrive at consolidated solutions from bilateral viewpoints. This study thoroughly examined informal housing finance strategies of the urban poor and diligently investigated expert opinion on affordable housing finance solutions. The research questions were: (1) What mutual grounds exist between informal housing finance solutions of the urban poor and housing expert solutions to affordable housing finance constraints in developing economies? (2) What are effective approaches to affordable housing finance in developing economies from an integrated demand - supply perspective? Semi-structured interviews were conducted in the 5 largest slums of Lagos, Nigeria, with 40 informal settlers for demand-oriented solutions, while focus group discussion and in-depth interviews were conducted with 12 housing experts in Nigeria for supply-oriented solutions. Following a rigorous thematic, content and descriptive analyses of data using NVivo and Excel, findings ascertained mutual solutions from both demand and supply standpoints that can be consolidated into more effective affordable housing finance solutions in Nigeria. Deliberate finance models that recognise and include the finance realities of the urban poor was found to be the most significant supply-side housing finance solution, representing 25.4% of total expert responses. Findings also show that 100% of sampled urban poor engage in vocations where they earn little irregular income or zero income, limiting their housing finance capacities and creditworthiness. Survey revealed that the urban poor are involved in community savings and employ microfinance institutions within the informal settlements to tackle their housing finance predicaments. These are informal finance models of the urban poor, revealing common grounds between demand and supply solutions for affordable housing financing. Effective, affordable housing approach will be to modify, institutionalise and incorporate the informal finance strategies of the urban poor into deliberate government policies. This consolidation of solutions from demand and supply perspectives can eliminate the persistent misalliance between affordable housing demand and affordable housing supply. This study provides insights into mutual housing solutions from demand and supply perspectives, and findings are informative for effective, affordable housing provision approaches in developing countries. This study is novel in consolidating affordable housing solutions from demand and supply viewpoints, especially in relation to housing finance as a key component of HSVC. The framework for effective, affordable housing finance in developing economies from a consolidated viewpoint generated in this study is significant for the achievement of sustainable development goals, especially goal 11 for sustainable, resilient and inclusive cities. Findings are vital for future housing studies.

Keywords: affordable housing, affordable housing finance, developing economies, effective affordable housing, housing policy, urban poor, sustainable development goal, sustainable affordable housing

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Authors: Khattab Al Qaisi, Nicholas Bowring

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This paper presents the simulation results of the effects of sampling frequency on the total harmonic distortion (THD) of three-phase inverters using the space vector pulse width modulation (SVPWM) and space vector control (SVC) algorithms. The relationship between the variables was studied using curve fitting techniques, and it has been shown that, for 50 Hz inverters, there is an exponential relation between the sampling frequency and THD up to around 8500 Hz, beyond which the performance of the model becomes irregular, and there is an negative exponential relation between the sampling frequency and the marginal improvement to the THD. It has also been found that the performance of SVPWM is better than that of SVC with the same sampling frequency in most frequency range, including the range where the performance of the former is irregular.

Keywords: DSI, SVPWM, THD, DC-AC converter, sampling frequency, performance

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Authors: Isha Rathore, Peeyush Jain, Elangovan Rajasekar

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The thermal capacity of the envelope impacts the cooling and heating demand of a building and modulates the peak electricity demand. This paper presents the thermal capacity tuning of a building envelope to minimize peak electricity demand for space cooling. We consider a 40 m² residential testbed located in Hyderabad, India (Composite Climate). An EnergyPlus model is validated using real-time data. A Parametric simulation framework for thermal capacity tuning is created using the Honeybee plugin. Diffusivity, Thickness, layer position, orientation and fenestration size of the exterior envelope are parametrized considering a five-layered wall system. A total of 1824 parametric runs are performed and the optimum wall configuration leading to minimum peak cooling demand is presented.

Keywords: thermal capacity, tuning, peak demand reduction, parametric analysis

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Authors: Okike Benjamin, E. J. D. Garba

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The protection of sensitive information against unauthorized access or fraudulent changes has been of prime concern throughout the centuries. Modern communication techniques, using computers connected through networks, make all data even more vulnerable to these threats. The researchers in this work propose a new encryption technique to be known as Merged Irregular Transposition Cipher. In this proposed encryption technique, a message to be encrypted will first of all be split into multiple parts depending on the length of the message. After the split, different keywords are chosen to encrypt different parts of the message. After encrypting all parts of the message, the positions of the encrypted message could be swapped to other position thereby making it very difficult to decrypt by any unauthorized user.

Keywords: information security, message splitting, pattern, sequence

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Authors: Xian Li, Qing-Guo Wang, Jiangshuai Huang, Jidong Liu, Ming Yu, Tan Kok Poh

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In power industry, accurate electricity demand forecasting for a certain leading time is important for system operation and control, etc. In this paper, we investigate the modeling and forecasting of Singapore’s electricity demand. Several standard models, such as HWT exponential smoothing model, the ARMA model and the ANNs model have been proposed based on historical demand data. We applied them to Singapore electricity market and proposed three refinements based on simulation to improve the modeling accuracy. Compared with existing models, our refined model can produce better forecasting accuracy. It is demonstrated in the simulation that by adding forecasting error into the forecasting equation, the modeling accuracy could be improved greatly.

Keywords: power industry, electricity demand, modeling, forecasting

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Authors: Tehreem Fatima, Enjun Xia

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The research investigates the relationship between total oil consumption and transport oil consumption, GDP, oil price, and oil reserve in order to forecast future oil demand in China. Annual time series data is used over the period of 1980 to 2015, and for this purpose, an oil demand function is estimated by applying structural time series model (STSM). The technique also uncovers the Underline energy demand trend (UEDT) for China oil demand and GDP, oil reserve, oil price and UEDT are considering important drivers of China oil demand. The long-run elasticity of total oil consumption with respect to GDP and price are (0.5, -0.04) respectively while GDP, oil reserve, and price remain (0.17; 0.23; -0.05) respectively. Moreover, the Estimated results of long-run elasticity of transport oil consumption with respect to GDP and price are (0.5, -0.00) respectively long-run estimates remain (0.28; 37.76;-37.8) for GDP, oil reserve, and price respectively. For both model estimated underline energy demand trend (UEDT) remains nonlinear and stochastic and with an increasing trend of (UEDT) and based on estimated equations, it is predicted that China total oil demand somewhere will be 9.9 thousand barrel per day by 2025 as compare to 9.4 thousand barrel per day in 2015, while transport oil demand predicting value is 9.0 thousand barrel per day by 2020 as compare to 8.8 thousand barrel per day in 2015.

Keywords: china, forecasting, oil, structural time series model (STSM), underline energy demand trend (UEDT)

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Authors: Esma Birisci, Ronald McGarvey

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One of the common problems in food service industry is demand uncertainty. This research presents a multi-criteria optimization approach to identify the efficient frontier of points lying between the minimum-waste and minimum-shortfall solutions within uncertain demand environment. It also addresses correlation across demands for items (e.g., hamburgers are often demanded with french fries). Reducing overproduction food waste (and its corresponding environmental impacts) and an aversion to shortfalls (leave some customer hungry) need to consider as two contradictory objectives in an all-you-care-to-eat environment food service operation. We identify optimal production adjustments relative to demand forecasts, demand thresholds for utilization of leftovers, and percentages of demand to be satisfied by leftovers, considering two alternative metrics for overproduction waste: mass; and greenhouse gas emissions. Demand uncertainty and demand correlations are addressed using a kernel density estimation approach. A statistical analysis of the changes in decision variable values across each of the efficient frontiers can then be performed to identify the key variables that could be modified to reduce the amount of wasted food at minimal increase in shortfalls. We illustrate our approach with an application to empirical data from Campus Dining Services operations at the University of Missouri.

Keywords: environmental studies, food waste, production planning, uncertain and correlated demand

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Authors: Srinivasan Chandrasekaran, Shihas A. Khader

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Motion response of floating structures is of great concern in marine engineering. Nonlinearity is an inherent property of any floating bodies subjected to irregular waves. These floating structures are continuously subjected to environmental loadings from wave, current, wind etc. This can result in undesirable motions of the vessel which may challenge the operability. For a floating body to remain in its position, it should be able to induce a restoring force when displaced. Mooring is provided to enable this restoring force. This paper discuss the hydrodynamic performance and motion characteristics of an 8 point spread mooring system applied to a pipe laying barge operating in the West African sea. The modelling of the barge is done using a computer aided-design (CAD) software RHINOCEROS. Irregular waves are generated using a suitable wave spectrum. Both frequency domain and time domain analysis is done. Numerical simulations based on potential theory are carried out to find the responses and hydrodynamic performance of the barge in both free floating as well as moored conditions. Initially, potential flow frequency domain analysis is done to obtain the Response Amplitude Operator (RAO) which gives an idea about the structural motion in free floating state. RAOs for different wave headings are analyzed. In the following step, a time domain analysis is carried out to obtain the responses of the structure in the moored condition. In this study, wave induced motions are only taken into consideration. Wind and current loads are ruled out and shall be included in future studies. For the current study, 5000 seconds simulation is taken. The results represent wave-induced motion responses, mooring line tensions and identifies critical mooring lines.

Keywords: irregular wave, moored barge, time domain analysis, numerical simulation

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Authors: Huey-Kuo Chen

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Travel demand forecasting including four travel choices, i.e., trip generation, trip distribution, modal split and traffic assignment constructs the core of transportation planning. In its current application, travel demand forecasting has associated with three important issues, i.e., interface inconsistencies among four travel choices, inefficiency of commonly used solution algorithms, and undesirable multiple path solutions. In this paper, each of the three issues is extensively elaborated. An ideal unified framework for the combined model consisting of the four travel choices and variable demand functions is also suggested. Then, a few remarks are provided in the end of the paper.

Keywords: travel choices, B algorithm, entropy maximization, dynamic traffic assignment

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Authors: Ali Nadi, Ali Edrissi

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Relief demand and transportation links availability is the essential information that is needed for every natural disaster operation. This information is not in hand once a disaster strikes. Relief demand and network condition has been evaluated based on prediction method in related works. Nevertheless, prediction seems to be over or under estimated due to uncertainties and may lead to a failure operation. Therefore, in this paper a stochastic programming model is proposed to evaluate real-time relief demand and network condition at the onset of a natural disaster. To address the time sensitivity of the emergency response, the proposed model uses reinforcement learning for optimization of the total relief assessment time. The proposed model is tested on a real size network problem. The simulation results indicate that the proposed model performs well in the case of collecting real-time information.

Keywords: disaster management, real-time demand, reinforcement learning, relief demand

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Authors: Asanga Gunawansa, Shenella Fonseka

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On-demand bonds, also known as unconditional bonds, are commonplace in the construction industry as a means of safeguarding the employer from any potential non-performance by a contractor. On-demand bonds may be obtained from commercial banks, and they serve as an undertaking by the issuing bank to honour payment on demand without questioning and/or considering any dispute between the employer and the contractor in relation to the underlying contract. Thus, whether or not a breach had occurred under the underlying contract, which triggers the demand for encashment by the employer, is not a question the bank needs to be concerned with. As a result, an unconditional bond allows the beneficiary to claim the money almost without any condition. Thus, an unconditional bond is as good as cash-in-hand. In the past, establishing fraud on the part of the employer, of which the bank had knowledge, was the only ground on which a bank could dishonour a claim made under an on-demand bond. However, recent jurisprudence in common law countries shows that courts are beginning to consider unconscionable conduct on the part of the employer in claiming under an on-demand bond as a ground that contractors could rely on the prevent the banks from honouring such claims. This has created uncertainty in connection with on-demand bonds and their liquidity. This paper analyzes recent judicial decisions in four common law jurisdictions, namely, England, Singapore, Hong Kong, and Sri Lanka, to identify the scope of using the concept of “unconscionability” as a ground for preventing unreasonable claims for encashment of on-demand bonds. The objective of this paper is to argue that on-demand bonds have lost their effectiveness as “cash-in-hand” and that this is, in fact, an advantage and not an impediment to international commerce, as the purpose of such bonds should not be to provide for illegal and unconscionable conduct by the beneficiaries.

Keywords: fraud, performance guarantees, on-demand bonds, unconscionability

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Authors: Enkelejda Koka, Denard Veshi

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Since 2011, in the name of ‘humanitarianism’ and deaths in the Mediterranean Sea, the legal and political justification delivered by Greece to manage the refugee crisis is pre-emptive interception. Although part of the EU, Greece adopted its own strategy. These practices have also created high risks for migrants generally resulting in non-rescue episodes and push-back practices having lethal consequences to the life of the irregular migrant. Thus, this article provides an analysis of the Greek ‘compassionate border work’ policy, a practice known as push-back. It is argued that these push-back practices violate international obligations, notably the ‘right to life’, the ‘duty to search and rescue’, the prohibition of inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment and the principle of non-refoulement.

Keywords: Greece, migrants, push-back policy, violation of international law

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Authors: Jiayuan Wu. Lu Hu

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With the development of the sharing economy and mobile technology, carsharing becomes more popular. In this paper, we focus on the joint optimization of one-way station-based carsharing systems. We model the problem as an integer linear program with six elements: station locations, station capacity, fleet size, initial vehicle allocation, vehicle relocation, and demand selection. A greedy-based heuristic is proposed to address the model. Firstly, initialization based on the location variables relaxation using Gurobi solver is conducted. Then, according to the profit margin and demand satisfaction of each station, the number of stations is downsized iteratively. This method is applied to real data from Chengdu, Sichuan taxi data, and it’s efficient when dealing with a large scale of candidate stations. The result shows that with vehicle relocation and demand selection, the profit and demand satisfaction of carsharing systems are increased.

Keywords: one-way carsharing, location, vehicle relocation, demand selection, greedy algorithm

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Authors: Ulrike Dowie, Ralph Grothmann

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Rational planning decisions are based upon forecasts. Precise forecasting has, therefore, a central role in business. The prediction of customer demand is a prime example. This paper introduces recurrent neural networks to model customer demand and combines the forecast with uncertainty measures to derive decision support of the demand planning department. It identifies and describes the keys to the successful implementation of an AI-based solution: bringing together data with business knowledge, AI methods, and user experience, and applying agile software development practices.

Keywords: agile software development, AI project success factors, deep learning, demand forecasting, forecast uncertainty, neural networks, supply chain management

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Authors: Yu-Shan Hsu

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This paper studies a two-sector growth model with a technology of social constant returns and with a utility that features either a zero or a positive income effect on the demand for leisure. The purpose is to investigate how the existence of aggregate instability or equilibrium indeterminacy depends on both the intensity of the income effect on the demand for leisure and the value of the labor supply elasticity. The main finding is that when there is a factor intensity reversal between the private perspective and the social perspective, indeterminacy arises even if the utility has a positive income effect on leisure demand. Moreover, we find that a smaller value of the labor supply elasticity increases the range of the income effect on leisure demand and thus increases the possibility of equilibrium indeterminacy. JEL classification: E3; O41

Keywords: indeterminacy, non-separable preferences, income effect, labor supply elasticity

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Authors: Miguel Mariano Rivera Galvan

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The purpose of this research was to create a digital tool by which users can obtain an immediate and accurate solution of the angular characteristics of an irregular quadrilateral. The development of this project arose because of the frequent absence of a polygon’s geometric information in land ownership accreditation documents. The researcher created a mathematical model using a linear approximation iterative method, employing various disciplines and techniques including trigonometry, geometry, algebra, and topography. This mathematical model uses as input data the surface of the quadrilateral, as well as the length of its sides, to obtain its interior angles and make possible its representation in a coordinate system. The results are as accurate and reliable as the user requires, offering the possibility of using this tool as a support to develop future engineering and architecture projects quickly and reliably.

Keywords: digital tool, geometry, mathematical model, quadrilateral, solution

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Authors: Ghaleb Y. Abbasi, Israa Abu Rumman

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This paper modeled sales history archived from 2012 to 2015 bulked in monthly bins for five products for a medical supply company in Jordan. The sales forecasts and extracted consistent patterns in the sales demand history from the Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) system were used to predict future forecasting and generate sales demand forecasting using time series analysis statistical technique called Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). This was used to model and estimate realistic sales demand patterns and predict future forecasting to decide the best models for five products. Analysis revealed that the current replenishment system indicated inventory overstocking.

Keywords: ARIMA models, sales demand forecasting, time series, R code

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Authors: Hussain Ali Bekhet, Tuan Ab Rashid Bin Tuan Abdullah, Tahira Yasmin

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It is very important for electric utility to determine dominant sectors which have more impacts on electricity consumption in national economy system. The aim of this paper is to examine the electricity demand multipliers in Malaysia for (2005-2014) period. Malaysian Input-output tables, 2005 and 2010 are used. Besides, a new concept, electricity demand multiplier (EDM), is presented to identify key sectors imposing great impacts on electricity demand quantitatively. In order to testify the effectiveness of the Malaysian energy policies, it notes that there is fluctuation of the ranking sectors between 2005 and 2010. This could be reflected that there is efficiency with pace of development in Malaysia. This can be good indication for decision makers for designing future energy policies.

Keywords: input-output model, demand multipliers, electricity, key sectors, Malaysia

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Authors: Lejla Sunagic

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The aim of the manuscript is to further the understanding of risky decision-making in the context of forced and irregular migration. The empirical evidence is collected through interviews with Syrian refugees who arrived in Europe via irregular pathways. Analytically, it has been approached through the juxtaposition between risk perception and the notion of desire. As different frameworks have been developed to address differences in risk perception, the common thread was the understanding that individual risk-taking has been addressed in terms of benefits outweighing risks. However, this framework cannot explain a big risk an individual takes because of an underprivileged position and due to a lack of positive alternatives, termed as risk-taking from vulnerability. The accounts of the field members of this study that crossed the sea in rubber boats to arrive in Europe make an empirical fit to such a postulate by reporting that the risk they have taken was not the choice but the only coping strategy. However, the vulnerability argument falls short of explaining why the interviewees, thinking retrospectively, find the risky journey they have taken to be worth it, while they would strongly advise others to restrain from taking such a huge risk. This inconsistency has been addressed by adding the notion of desire to migrate to the elements of risk perception. Desire, as a subjective experience, was what made the risk appear smaller in cost-benefit analysis at the time of decision-making of those who have realized migration. However, when they reflect on others in the context of potential migration via the same pathway, the interviewees addressed the others’ lack of capacity to avoid the same obstacles that they themselves were able to circumvent while omitting to reflect on others’ desire to migrate. Thus, in the risk-benefit analysis performed for others, the risk remains unblurred and tips over the benefits, given the inability to take into account the desire of others. If desire, as the transformative potential of migration, is taken out of the cost-benefit analysis of irregular migration, refugees might not have taken the risky journey. By casting the theoretical argument in the language of configuration, the study is filling in the gap of knowledge on the combination of migration drivers and the way they interact and produce migration outcomes.

Keywords: refugees, risk perception, desire, irregular migration

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Authors: Ioana Neamtu

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This paper investigates the potential for demand-side management for the system price in the Nordic electricity market and the price effects of introducing wind-power into the system. The model proposed accounts for the micro-structure of the Nordic electricity market by modeling each hour individually, while still accounting for the relationship between the hours within a day. This flexibility allows us to explore the differences between peak and shoulder demand hours. Preliminary results show potential for demand response management, as indicated by the price elasticity of demand as well as a small but statistically significant decrease in price, given by the wind power penetration. Moreover, our study shows that these effects are stronger during day-time and peak hours,compared to night-time and shoulder hours.

Keywords: structural model, GMM estimation, system of equations, electricity market

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Authors: N. R. Badurally Adam, S. R. Monebhurrun, M. Z. Dauhoo, A. Khoodaruth

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Transport energy demand is vital for the economic growth of any country. Globalisation and better standard of living plays an important role in transport energy demand. Recently, transport energy demand in Mauritius has increased significantly, thus leading to an abuse of natural resources and thereby contributing to global warming. Forecasting the transport energy demand is therefore important for controlling and managing the demand. In this paper, we develop a model to predict the transport energy demand. The model developed is based on a system of five stochastic differential equations (SDEs) consisting of five endogenous variables: fuel price, population, gross domestic product (GDP), number of vehicles and transport energy demand and three exogenous parameters: crude birth rate, crude death rate and labour force. An interval of seven years is used to avoid any falsification of result since Mauritius is a developing country. Data available for Mauritius from year 2003 up to 2009 are used to obtain the values of design variables by applying genetic algorithm. The model is verified and validated for 2010 to 2012 by substituting the values of coefficients obtained by GA in the model and using particle swarm optimisation (PSO) to predict the values of the exogenous parameters. This model will help to control the transport energy demand in Mauritius which will in turn foster Mauritius towards a pollution-free country and decrease our dependence on fossil fuels.

Keywords: genetic algorithm, modeling, particle swarm optimization, stochastic differential equations, transport energy demand

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Authors: María de los Ángeles Cerda González, Itzel Arriaga Hurtado, Pascacio José Martínez Pichardo

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In México, the recognition of refugee condition is a fundamental right which, as host State, has the obligation of respect, protect, and fulfill to the foreigners – where we can find the figure of immigrants in irregular situation-, that cannot return to their country of origin for humanitarian reasons. The recognition of the refugee condition as a fundamental right in the Mexican law system proceeds under these situations: 1. The immigrant applies for the refugee condition, even without the necessary proving elements to accredit the humanitarian character of his departure from his country of origin. 2. The immigrant does not apply for the recognition of refugee because he does not know he has the right to, even if he has the profile to apply for. 3. The immigrant who applies fulfills the requirements of the administrative procedure and has access to the refugee recognition. Of the three situations above, only the last one is contemplated for the national indexes of the status refugee; and the first two prove the inefficiency of the governmental system viewed from its lack of sensibility consequence of the no education in human rights matter and which results in the legal vulnerability of the immigrants in irregular situation because they do not have access to the procuration and administration of justice. In the aim of determining the causes and consequences of the no recognition of the refugee status, this investigation was structured from a systemic analysis which objective is to show the advances in Central American humanitarian emergency investigation, the Mexican States actions to protect, respect and fulfil the fundamental right of refugee of immigrants in irregular situation and the social and legal vulnerabilities suffered by Central Americans in Mexico. Therefore, to achieve the deduction of the legal nature of the humanitarian emergency from the Human Rights as a branch of the International Public Law, a conceptual framework is structured using the inductive deductive method. The problem statement is made from a legal framework to approach a theoretical scheme under the theory of social systems, from the analysis of the lack of communication of the governmental and normative subsystems of the Mexican legal system relative to the process undertaken by the Central American immigrants to achieve the recognition of the refugee status as a human right. Accordingly, is determined that fulfilling the obligations of the State referent to grant the right of the recognition of the refugee condition, would mean a guideline for a new stage in Mexican Law, because it would enlarge the constitutional benefits to everyone whose right to the recognition of refugee has been denied an as consequence, a great advance in human rights matter would be achieved.

Keywords: central American immigrants in irregular situation, humanitarian emergency, human rights, refugee

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Authors: Mengqi Wu, Haiping Zhu, Chin J. Leo

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In this study, six experimental cases with different components (dry and wet soils and rocks) were considered to elucidate the influence of material composition on landslide profiles. The results show that the accumulation zone for all cases considered has a quadrilateral shape with two different bottom angles. The asymmetry of the accumulation zone can be attributed to the fact that soils in different parts of the landslide sliding can produce different speeds and suffer different resistances. The higher soil moisture can generate stronger cohesion between soils to reduce the volume of the sliding body during the landslide. The rock content can increase the accumulation angles to improve slope stability. The interaction between the irregular shapes of rocks and soils provides more resistance than that between spherical rocks and soils, which causes the slope with irregular rocks and soils to have higher stability.

Keywords: landslide, soil moisture, rock content, experimental simulation

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Authors: Muzaffer Topgul, Hasan Atac

Abstract:

In case of explaining the migration concept, although it is not a new phenomenon, it is easy to understand that communities have migrated for variety of reasons such as natural disasters, famine, wars, economic problems, and several theories have been put forth to define and find solution for migration within its changing nature. Examining of migration theories denotes that the circumstances under which they appear reflect political, social, and economic conditions of the age they appear. In this day and time, security is considered not only from military perspective but also from economic, political, sociological dimensions. Based on the changing security environment new impacts of migration has occurred; the migration is proceed to be conferred as a type of war, qualified as a transnational crime because of its outcomes and interpreted in a different dimension owing to its effects on the health and education areas. Social security dimension in the context of expanding concept of security; when dealing with the safety of people and social groups with the assumption that national unity and identity are threatened, it sees immigrants as a source of threat. The human security assesses the safety of individuals in terms of survival and quality of life. Changes in the standard of living under the influence of immigrants and possible terrorist acts can be seen as a threat source in this type of security. Economic security of the individuals and the regional changes at the micro level created by the immigrants are covered issues of economic security. Due to the factors such as terrorism and civil war, the increasing numbers of displaced people who have taken refugee status affect the countries, whether it is near or far to the crisis areas, in the new and different dimensions of security day by day. In this study, the term of immigration through the eyes of national and international law will be evaluated, the place of the irregular and illegal immigration in the changing security sphere will be revealed and the effects of the irregular migration to short-term, mid-term and long-term security issues will be assessed through human and social security aspects. In order to analyze the threats for the human security; the parameters such as living conditions of the immigrants, the ratio of the genders, birth rate occasions, the education circumstances of the immigrant children and the effects of the illegal passing on the public order will be evaluated. The outcomes of the problem areas for the human security and the demographic alteration resulting from the human flow of displaced people will be discussed thorough social security extent. The fizzling economic diversity, which has shown up by irregular migration, will be presented within the scope of economic dimension of security.

Keywords: irregular migration, the changing dimensions of security, human security, social security

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