Search results for: health risk assessment

Authors: Tolga Barisik, Ali Fuat Guneri, K. Dastan

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Major industrial facilities have a high potential for fire risk. In particular, the indices used for the detection of hidden fire are used very effectively in order to prevent the fire from becoming dangerous in the initial stage. These indices provide the opportunity to prevent or intervene early by determining the stage of the fire, the potential for hazard, and the type of the combustion agent with the percentage values of the ambient air components. In this system, artificial neural network will be modeled with the input data determined using the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm, which is a multi-layer sensor (CAA) (teacher-learning) type, before modeling the modeling methods in the literature. The actual values produced by the indices will be compared with the outputs produced by the network. Using the neural network and the curves to be created from the resulting values, the feasibility of performance determination will be investigated.

Keywords: artifical neural networks, fire, Graham Index, levenberg-marquardt algoritm, oxygen decrease percentage index, risk assessment, Trickett Index

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Authors: Siqi Qiu, Yijian Zheng, Xin Guo Ming

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In many reliability and risk analysis, failures of components are supposed to be independent. However, in reality, the ignorance of failure dependencies among components may render the results of reliability and risk analysis incorrect. There are two principal ways to incorporate failure dependencies in system reliability and risk analysis: implicit and explicit methods. In the implicit method, failure dependencies can be modeled by joint probabilities, correlation values or conditional probabilities. In the explicit method, certain types of dependencies can be modeled in a fault tree as mutually independent basic events for specific component failures. In this paper, explicit and implicit methods based on BDD will be proposed to evaluate the reliability of systems considering failure dependencies. The obtained results prove the equivalence of the proposed implicit and explicit methods. It is found that the consideration of failure dependencies decreases the reliability of systems. This observation is intuitive, because more components fail due to failure dependencies. The consideration of failure dependencies helps designers to reduce the dependencies between components during the design phase to make the system more reliable.

Keywords: reliability assessment, risk assessment, failure dependencies, binary decision diagram

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Authors: Kimberly Tasha Jiayi Tang, Changqing Lin, Zhe Wang, Tze-Wai Wong, Md. Shakhaoat Hossain, Jian Yu, Alexis Lau

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Hong Kong has practiced a risk-based Air Quality Health Index (AQHI) system that sums hospitalization risks associated with short-term exposure to air pollu-tants. As an air pollution risk communication tool, it informs the public about the current air quality, anchoring around the World Health Organization's (WHO) 2005 Air Quality Guidelines (AQGs). Given the WHO's recent update in 2021, assessing how Hong Kong’s air quality risk communication can be en-hanced using these updated guidelines is essential. Hong Kong’s AQHI is lim-ited by solely focusing on short-term health risks, which could lead the public to underestimate cumulative health impacts. Therefore, we propose the intro-duction of a composite AQHI that reports both long-term and short-term health risks. Additionally, the WHO interim targets will be considered as anchor points for various health risk categories. Furthermore, with the increasing ozone levels in Hong Kong and Southern China due to improved NOx mitigation measures, it has been a challenging task in balancing health protection against climate mitigation. However, our findings present a promising outlook. Despite the rise in ozone levels, the combined health risks in Hong Kong and Guang-dong have seen a decline, largely due to reductions in NO2 and PM concentra-tions, both having significant health implications. By shifting from a concentra-tion-based approach to a health risk-based system like the AQHI, our study highlights the prospective of harmonizing health protection and climate mitiga-tion goals. This health-focused framework suggests that rigorous NOx controls can effective-ly serve both objectives in parallel.

Keywords: air quality management, air quality health index, health risk management, air pollution

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Authors: Roberto Rubem Silva-Brandao, Aurea Maria Zollner Ianni

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This article discusses the use and the incorporation of Pre-exposure Prophylaxis for HIV (PrEP) within a risk society context. Considering contemporary social theoreticians, we discuss implications of biotechnological uses for health enhancement. Firstly, we explore examples of biological manipulation and its consequences of use on given ecological dynamics, particularly taking into account other Sexually Transmitted Infections. In addition, we discuss how HIV resistance cases occurred with people on PrEP and its possible consequences on population-based interventions. Moreover, we present recent studies that analyze biological modifications on bodies of those who are on consistent use of PrEP, and how these body modifications are addressed on common practices of Public Health. Secondly, we present our theoretical references, which are intended to the analysis that situates our contemporary society in the reflexive stage of modernization. We discuss limits of biological use by individuals and how this can fabric feelings of freedom and autonomy within the individualization process and health. Finally, we argue that biotechnological uses on health, specifically on Public Health, tackling the risk aspects of its application, shows that another sanitary pact is needed.

Keywords: PrEP, public health, social sciences, risk society

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Authors: Eleni Stefania Kalapoda

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Recurring heat waves due to the global climate change emergency pose continuous risks to human health and urban resources. Local and state decision-makers incorporate Heat Vulnerability Indices (HVIs) to quantify and map the relative impact on human health in emergencies. These maps enable government officials to identify the highest-risk districts and to concentrate emergency planning efforts and available resources accordingly (e.g., to reevaluate the location and the number of heat-relief centers). Even though the framework of conducting an HVI is unique per municipality, its accuracy in assessing the heat risk is limited. To resolve this issue, varied housing-related metrics should be included. This paper quantifies and classifies NYC’s single detached housing typology within high-vulnerable NYC districts using detailed energy simulations and post-processing calculations. The results show that the variation in indoor heat risk depends significantly on the dwelling’s design/operation characteristics, concluding that low-ventilated dwellings are the most vulnerable ones. Also, it confirmed that when building-level determinants of exposure are excluded from the assessment, HVI fails to capture important components of heat vulnerability. Lastly, the overall vulnerability ratio of the housing units was calculated between 0.11 to 1.6 indoor heat degrees in terms of ventilation and shading capacity, insulation degree, and other building attributes.

Keywords: heat vulnerability index, energy efficiency, urban heat, resiliency to heat, climate adaptation, climate mitigation, building energy

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Authors: T. Keiller, E. Hindman, P. Hassmen, K. Radford, L. Lavrencic

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Background: Psychosocial disadvantage is associated with impaired cognitive abilities, with executive functioning (EF) abilities particularly vulnerable. EF abilities strongly predict general daily functioning, educational and career prospects, and health choices. A reliable and valid assessment of EF is important to support appropriate care and intervention strategies. However, evidence-based EF assessment tools for use with Aboriginal Australians are limited. Aim and Method: This research aims to develop and validate a culturally appropriate EF tool for use with indigenous Australians. To this end, Study One aims to review current literature examining the benefits and disadvantages of current EF assessment tools for use with Indigenous Australians. Study Two aims to collate expert opinion on the strengths and weaknesses of various current EF assessment tools for use with Indigenous Australians using Delphi methodology with experienced psychologists (n = 10). The initial two studies will inform the development of a culturally appropriate assessment tool. Study Three aims to evaluate the psychometric properties of the tool with an Indigenous sample living in the New South Wales Mid-North Coast. The study aims to quantify the predictive validity of this tool via comparison to functionality predictors and neuropsychological assessment scores. Study Four aims to collect qualitative data surrounding the feasibility and acceptability of the tool among indigenous Australians and health professionals. Expected Results: Findings from this research are likely to inform cognitive assessment practices and tool selection for health professionals conducting cognitive assessments with Indigenous Australians. Improved assessment of EF will inform appropriate care and intervention strategies for individuals with EF deficits.

Keywords: aboriginal Australians, assessment tool, cognition, executive functioning

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Authors: Xiaoting Shi, Xiaomei Ma

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In higher education, students' self-assessment and peer assessment of compositions in writing classes can effectively improve their ability of evaluative judgment. However, students' self-assessment and peer assessment are not advocated by most teachers because of the significant difference in scoring compared with teacher assessment. This study used a multi-faceted Rasch model to explore whether an English writing checklist containing 30 descriptors can effectively improve rating consistency among self-assessment, peer assessment and teacher assessment. Meanwhile, a questionnaire was adopted to survey students’ and teachers’ attitudes toward self-assessment and peer assessment using the writing checklist. Results of the multi-faceted Rasch model analysis show that the writing checklist can effectively distinguish the students’ writing ability (separate coefficient = 2.05, separate reliability = 0.81, chi-square value (df = 32) = 123.4). Moreover, the results revealed that the checklist could improve rating consistency among self-assessment, peer assessment and teacher assessment. (separate coefficient = 1.71, separate reliability = 0.75, chi-square value (df=4) = 20.8). The results of the questionnaire showed that more than 85% of students and all teachers believed that the checklist had a good advantage in self-assessment and peer assessment, and they were willing to use the checklist to conduct self-assessment and peer assessment in class in the future.

Keywords: english writing, self-assessment, peer assessment, writing checklist

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Authors: Md. Refat Jahan Rakiba, M. Belal Hossaina, Rakesh Kumarc, Md. Akram Ullaha, Sultan Al Nahiand, Nazmun Naher Rimaa, Tasrina Rabia Choudhury, Samia Islam Libaf, Jimmy Yub, Mayeen Uddin Khandakerg, Abdelmoneim Suliemanh, Mohamed Mahmoud Sayedi

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Microplastics (MPs) have become an emerging global pollutant due to their wide spread and dispersion and potential threats to marine ecosystems. However, studies on MPs of estuarine and coastal ecosystems of Bangladesh are very limited or not available. In this study, we conducted the first study on the abundance, distribution, characteristics and potential risk assessment of microplastics in the sediment of Karnaphuli River estuary, Bangladesh. Microplastic particles were extracted from sediments of 30 stations along the estuary by density separation, and then enumerated and characterize by using steromicroscope and Fourier Transform Infrared (FT-IR) spectroscopy. In the collected sediment, the number of MPs varied from 22.29 - 59.5 items kg−1 of dry weight (DW) with an average of 1177 particles kg−1 DW. The mean abundance was higher in the downstream and left bank of estuary where the predominant shape, colour, and size of MPs were films (35%), white (19%), and >5000 μm (19%), respectively. The main polymer types were polyethylene terephthalate, polystyrene, polyethylene, cellulose, and nylon. MPs were found to pose risks (low to high) in the sediment of the estuary, with the highest risk occuring at one station near a sewage outlet, according to the results of risk analyses using the pollution risk index (PRI), polymer risk index (H), contamination factors (CFs), and pollution load index (PLI). The single value index, PLI clearly demonastated that all sampling sites were considerably polluted (as PLI >1) with microplastics. H values showed toxic polymers even in lower proportions possess higher polymeric hazard scores and vice versa. This investigation uncovered new insights on the status of MPs in the sediments of Karnaphuli River estuary, laying the groundwork for future research and control of microplastic pollution and management.

Keywords: microplastics, polymers, pollution risk assessment, Karnaphuli esttuary

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Authors: S. U. Kunya, S. A. Mohammad

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Construction projects in Nigeria are characterized with risks emanating from delays and accompanying cost-overruns. The aim of the study was to identify and assess factors constraining the utilization of risk management strategies in the execution of public construction project in North-East Nigeria. Data was collected with the aid of a well-structured questionnaire administered to three identified projects in the North-east. Data collected were analysed using the severity index. Findings revealed political involvement, selection of inexperienced contractors and lack of coordinated public sector strategy as the most severe factors constraining the utilization of risk management strategies. The study recommended that: formulation of laws to prevent negative political meddling in construction projects; selection of experienced, risk-informed contractors; and comprehensive risk assessment and planning on all public construction projects.

Keywords: factors, Nigeria, north-east, public projects, risk management, strategies, utilization

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Authors: Ruchi Agarwal, Jake Ansell

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Austerity impacts on all aspects of society. Companies into the future will have to be more capable of dealing with the risks they face. Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) has widely been accepted in recent years as an approach to manage risks within businesses. ERM attempts to tackle risk holistically with gains from opportunities in a managing risk and reduction in the risk of failure. The paper reviews merits and demerits of approaches to risk management in regard to antifragility. A qualitative study has investigated current practices and the problems with ERM implementation by interviewing over 25 chief risk officers and senior management. The findings indicate the gap in ERM description, understanding, and implementation. The paper suggests risk learning and expertise knowledge supports development of effective enterprise risk management by designing systems with inherent resilience.

Keywords: risk management, interviews, antifragility, failure

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Authors: A. Falenski, A. Kaesbohrer, M. Filter

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Introduction: Risk assessments can be performed in various ways and in different degrees of complexity. In order to assess risks associated with imported foods additional information needs to be taken into account compared to a risk assessment on regional products. The present review is an overview on currently available best practise approaches and data sources used for food import risk assessments (IRAs). Methods: A literature review has been performed. PubMed was searched for articles about food IRAs published in the years 2004 to 2014 (English and German texts only, search string “(English [la] OR German [la]) (2004:2014 [dp]) import [ti] risk”). Titles and abstracts were screened for import risks in the context of IRAs. The finally selected publications were analysed according to a predefined questionnaire extracting the following information: risk assessment guidelines followed, modelling methods used, data and software applied, existence of an analysis of uncertainty and variability. IRAs cited in these publications were also included in the analysis. Results: The PubMed search resulted in 49 publications, 17 of which contained information about import risks and risk assessments. Within these 19 cross references were identified to be of interest for the present study. These included original articles, reviews and guidelines. At least one of the guidelines of the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) and the Codex Alimentarius Commission were referenced in any of the IRAs, either for import of animals or for imports concerning foods, respectively. Interestingly, also a combination of both was used to assess the risk associated with the import of live animals serving as the source of food. Methods ranged from full quantitative IRAs using probabilistic models and dose-response models to qualitative IRA in which decision trees or severity tables were set up using parameter estimations based on expert opinions. Calculations were done using @Risk, R or Excel. Most heterogeneous was the type of data used, ranging from general information on imported goods (food, live animals) to pathogen prevalence in the country of origin. These data were either publicly available in databases or lists (e.g., OIE WAHID and Handystatus II, FAOSTAT, Eurostat, TRACES), accessible on a national level (e.g., herd information) or only open to a small group of people (flight passenger import data at national airport customs office). In the IRAs, an uncertainty analysis has been mentioned in some cases, but calculations have been performed only in a few cases. Conclusion: The current state-of-the-art in the assessment of risks of imported foods is characterized by a great heterogeneity in relation to general methodology and data used. Often information is gathered on a case-by-case basis and reformatted by hand in order to perform the IRA. This analysis therefore illustrates the need for a flexible, modular framework supporting the connection of existing data sources with data analysis and modelling tools. Such an infrastructure could pave the way to IRA workflows applicable ad-hoc, e.g. in case of a crisis situation.

Keywords: import risk assessment, review, tools, food import

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Authors: Zidane Abderrezzaq

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In contrast to recent successful developments in macro monetary policies, the modelling, measurement and management of systemic financial stability has remained problematical. Indeed, the focus of most effort has been on improving individual, rather than systemic, bank risk management; the Basel II objective has been to bring regulatory bank capital into line with the (sophisticated) banks’ assessment of their own economic capital. Even at the individual bank level there are concerns over appropriate diversification allowances, differing objectives of banks and regulators, the need for a buffer over regulatory minima, and the distinction between expected and unexpected losses (EL and UL). At the systemic level the quite complex and prescriptive content of Basel II raises dangers of ‘endogenous risk’ and procyclicality. Simulations suggest that this latter could be a serious problem. In an extension to the main analysis we study how liquidity effects interact with banking structure to produce a greater chance of systemic breakdown. We finally consider how the risk of contagion might depend on the degree of asymmetry (tiering) inherent in the structure of the banking system. A number of our results have important implications for public policy, which this paper also draws out.

Keywords: systemic stability, financial regulation, credit risk, systemic risk

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Authors: Eftah Bte. Moh Hj Abdullah, Izazol Binti Idris, Abd Aziz Bin Abd Shukor

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This study aims to identify the understanding expectations of school administrators concerning school assessment. The researcher utilized a qualitative descriptive study on 19 administrators from three secondary schools in the North Kinta district. The respondents had been interviewed on their understanding expectations of school assessment using the focus group discussion method. Overall findings showed that the administrators’ understanding expectations of school assessment was weak; especially in terms of content focus, articulation across age and grade, transparency and fairness, as well as the pedagogical implications. Findings from interviews indicated that administrators explained their understanding expectations of school assessment from the aspect of school management, and not from the aspect of instructional leadership or specifically as assessment leaders. The study implications from the administrators’ understanding expectations may hint at the difficulty of the administrators to function as assessment leaders, in order to reduce their focus as manager, and move towards their primary role in the process of teaching and learning. The administrator, as assessment leaders, would be able to reach assessment goals via collaboration in identifying and listing teacher assessment competencies, how to construct assessment capacity, how to interpret assessment correctly, the use of assessment and how to use assessment information to communicate confidently and effectively to the public.

Keywords: assessment leaders, assessment goals, instructional leadership, understanding expectation of assessment

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Authors: Charles Chijioke Dike, Hugh Clifford Chima Maduka, Chinwe A. Isibor

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Fish is among the products consumed at a very high rate. In most countries of the world, fish are used as part of the daily meal. The high cost of commercial fish feeds in Africa has made it necessary the development of an alternative source of fish feed processing from organic waste. The objective of this research is to investigate the efficacy of fish feeds processed from various animal wastes in order to know whether those feeds shall be alternatives to commercial feeds. This work shall be carried out at the Research Laboratory Unit of the Department of Human Biochemistry, Faculty of Basic Medical Sciences, College of Health Sciences, Nnamdi Azikiwe University (NAU), Nnewi Campus, Anambra State. The fingerlings to be used shall be gotten from the Agricultural Department of NAU, Awka, Anambra State, and allowed to acclimatize for 14 d. Animal and food wastes shall be gotten from Nnewi. The fish shall be grouped into 1-13 (Chicken manure only, cow dung only, pig manure only, chicken manure + yeast, cow dung + yeast, pig manure + yeast, chicken manure + other wastes + yeast, cow dung + other wastes + yeast, and pig manure + other wastes + yeast. Feed assessment shall be carried out by determining bulk density, feed water absorption, feed hardness, feed oil absorption, and feed water stability. The nutritional analysis shall be carried out on the feeds processed. The risk assessment shall be done on the fish by determining methylmercury (MeHg), polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), and dichloro-diphenyl-trichloroethane (DDT) in the fish. The results from this study shall be analyzed statistically using SPSS statistical software, version 25. The hypothesis is that fish feeds processed from animal wastes are efficient in raising catfish. The outcome of this study shall provide the basis for the formulation of fish feeds from organic wastes.

Keywords: assessment, feeds, health risk, wastes

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Authors: Mathewos Temesgen, Lemi Geleta

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Lake Koka is one of the Ethiopian Central Rift Valleys lakes, where the absorbance of domestic, agricultural, and industrial waste from the nearby industrial and agro-industrial activities is very common. The aim of this research was to assess the heavy metal bioaccumulation in edible parts of common carp (Cyprinus carpio) in Lake Koka and the health risks associated with the dietary intake of the fish. Three sampling sites were selected randomly for primary data collection. Physicochemical parameters (pH, Total Dissolved Solids, Dissolved Oxygen and Electrical Conductivity) were measured in-situ. Four heavy metals (Cd, Cr, Pb, and Zn) in water and bio-accumulation in the edible parts of the fish were analyzed with flame atomic absorption spectrometry. The mean values of TDS, EC, DO and pH of the lake water were 458.1 mg/L, 905.7 µ s/cm, 7.36 mg/L, and 7.9, respectively. The mean concentrations of Zn, Cr, and Cd in the edible part of fish were also 0.18 mg/kg, ND-0.24 mg/kg, and ND-0.03 mg/kg, respectively. Pb was, however, not identified. The amount of Cr in the examined fish muscle was above the level set by FAO, and the accumulation of the metals showed marked differences between sampling sites (p<0.05). The concentrations of Cd, Pb and were below the maximum permissible limit. The results also indicated that Cr has a high transfer factor value and Zn has the lowest. The carcinogenic hazard ratio values were below the threshold value (<1) for the edible parts of fish. The estimated weekly intake of heavy metals from fish muscles ranked as Cr>Zn>Cd, but the values were lower than the Reference Dose limit for metals. The carcinogenic risk values indicated a low health risk due to the intake of individual metals from fish. Furthermore, the hazard index of the edible part of fish was less than unity. Generally, the water quality is not a risk for the survival and reproduction of fish, and the heavy metal contents in the edible parts of fish exhibited low carcinogenic risk through the food chain.

Keywords: bio-accumulation, cyprinus carpio, hazard index, heavy metals, Lake Koka

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Authors: Abdul Kadir, L. Meily Kurniawidjaja

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Batik Madura workers are exposed to many Musculoskeletal Disorders risk factors, particularly Low Back Pain (LBP). This study was conducted as an early detection of ergonomic risk level on Workers Industrial Sentra Batik Madura in Dusun Banyumas, Klampar Subdistrict, Proppo Pamekasan, Madura, East Java. This study includes 12 workers who 11 workers had pain in the upper and lower part of the neck, back, wrist right hand, also 10 workers had pain in the right shoulder. This is a descriptive observational study with cross-sectional approach. Qualitative research by observing workers activity such as draw and putting the wax motif, fabric dyeing, fabric painting, discoloration, washing, and drying. The results are workers have identified ergonomic hazards such as awkward postures, twisting movements, repetitive, and static work postures. Using the method of REBA and QEC, the results get a very high-risk level of activity in each of Madura batik making process is the draw and putting the wax motif, coloring, painting, discoloration, washing, and drying. The level of risk can be reduced by improvement of work equipment include the provision of seats, strut fabric, high settings furnaces, drums, coloring basin, and washing tub.

Keywords: activities of Madura's batik, ergonomic risk level, equipment, QEC (Quick Exposure Checklist), REBA (Rapid Entire Body Assessment)

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Authors: Haolin Li, Eric Bair, Jane Monaco, Quefeng Li

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The temporomandibular disorder (TMD) is a series of musculoskeletal disorders ranging from jaw pain to chronic debilitating pain, and the risk factors for the onset and maintenance of TMD are still unclear. Prior researches have shown that the potential risk factors for chronic TMD are related to psychosocial factors, autonomic functions, and pain sensitivity. Using data from the Orofacial Pain: Prospective Evaluation and Risk Assessment (OPPERA) study’s baseline case-control study, we examine whether the risk factors identified by prior researches are still statistically significant after taking all of the risk measures into account in one single model, and we also compare the relative influences of the risk factors in three different perspectives (psychosocial factors, autonomic functions, and pain sensitivity) on the chronic TMD. The statistical analysis is conducted by using ridge logistic regression and bootstrapping, in which the performance of the algorithms has been assessed using extensive simulation studies. The results support most of the findings of prior researches that there are many psychosocial and pain sensitivity measures that have significant associations with chronic TMD. However, it is surprising that most of the risk factors of autonomic functions have not presented significant associations with chronic TMD, as described by a prior research.

Keywords: autonomic function, OPPERA study, pain sensitivity, psychosocial measures, temporomandibular disorder

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Authors: Thammarak Srimarut, Witthaya Mekhum

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This study analysed and developed a model for monk’s food bowl production on occupational health safety and environment at work for the encouragement of Rattanakosin local wisdom at Banbart Community. The process of blowpipe welding was necessary to produce the bowl which was very dangerous or 93.59% risk. After the employment of new sitting posture, the work risk was lower 48.41% or moderate risk. When considering in details, it was found that: 1) the traditional sitting posture could create work risk at 88.89% while the new sitting posture could create the work risk at 58.86%. 2) About the environmental pollution, with the traditional sitting posture, workers exposed to the polluted fume from welding at 61.11% while with the new sitting posture workers exposed to the polluted fume from welding at 40.47%. 3) On accidental risk, with the traditional sitting posture, workers exposed to the accident from welding at 94.44% while with the new sitting posture workers exposed to the accident from welding at 62.54%.

Keywords: occupational health safety, environment at work, Monk’s food bowl, machine intelligence

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Authors: Francesco Pandolfi, Georgios Baltzopoulos, Iunio Iervolino

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The impact of extreme winds on industrial assets and the built environment is gaining increasing attention from stakeholders, including the corporate insurance industry. This has led to a progressively more in-depth study of building vulnerability and fragility to wind. Wind vulnerability models are used in probabilistic risk assessment to relate a loss metric to an intensity measure of the natural event, usually a gust or a mean wind speed. In fact, vulnerability models can be integrated with the wind hazard, which consists of associating a probability to each intensity level in a time interval (e.g., by means of return periods) to provide an assessment of future losses due to extreme wind. This has also given impulse to the world- and regional-scale wind hazard studies.Another approach often adopted for the probabilistic description of building vulnerability to the wind is the use of fragility functions, which provide the conditional probability that selected building components will exceed certain damage states, given wind intensity. In fact, in wind engineering literature, it is more common to find structural system- or component-level fragility functions rather than wind vulnerability models for an entire building. Loss assessment based on component fragilities requires some logical combination rules that define the building’s damage state given the damage state of each component and the availability of a consequence model that provides the losses associated with each damage state. When risk calculations are based on numerical simulation of a structure’s behavior during extreme wind scenarios, the interaction of component fragilities is intertwined with the computational procedure. However, simulation-based approaches are usually computationally demanding and case-specific. In this context, the present work introduces the ExtReMe wind risk assESsment prototype Software, ERMESS, which is being developed at the University of Naples Federico II. ERMESS is a wind risk assessment tool for insurance applications to industrial facilities, collecting a wide assortment of available wind vulnerability models and fragility functions to facilitate their incorporation into risk calculations based on in-built or user-defined wind hazard data. This software implements an alternative method for building-specific risk assessment based on existing component-level fragility functions and on a number of simplifying assumptions for their interactions. The applicability of this alternative procedure is explored by means of an illustrative proof-of-concept example, which considers four main building components, namely: the roof covering, roof structure, envelope wall and envelope openings. The application shows that, despite the simplifying assumptions, the procedure can yield risk evaluations that are comparable to those obtained via more rigorous building-level simulation-based methods, at least in the considered example. The advantage of this approach is shown to lie in the fact that a database of building component fragility curves can be put to use for the development of new wind vulnerability models to cover building typologies not yet adequately covered by existing works and whose rigorous development is usually beyond the budget of portfolio-related industrial applications.

Keywords: component wind fragility, probabilistic risk assessment, vulnerability model, wind-induced losses

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Authors: Jeremy Dixon

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Safeguarding adults forms a core part of social work practice. The Government in England and Wales has made efforts to standardise practices through The Care Act 2014. The Act states that local authorities have duties to make inquiries in cases where an adult with care or support needs is experiencing or at risk of abuse and is unable to protect themselves from abuse or neglect. Despite the importance given to safeguarding adults within law there remains little research about how social workers conduct such decisions on the ground. This presentation reports on findings from a pilot research study conducted within two social work teams in a Local Authority in England. The objective of the project was to find out how social workers interpreted safeguarding duties as laid out by The Care Act 2014 with a particular focus on how workers assessed and managed risk. Ethnographic research methods were used throughout the project. This paper focusses specifically on decisions made by workers in the assessment team. The paper reports on qualitative observation and interviews with five workers within this team. Drawing on governmentality theory, this paper analyses the techniques used by workers to manage risk from a distance. A high proportion of safeguarding referrals came from care workers or managers in residential care homes. Social workers conducting safeguarding assessments were aware that they had a duty to work in partnership with these agencies. However, their duty to safeguard adults also meant that they needed to view them as potential abusers. In making judgments about when it was proportionate to refer for a safeguarding assessment workers drew on a number of common beliefs about residential care workers which were then tested in conversations with them. Social workers held the belief that residential homes acted defensively, leading them to report any accident or danger. Social workers therefore encouraged residential workers to consider whether statutory criteria had been met and to use their own procedures to manage risk. In addition social workers carried out an assessment of the workers’ motives; specifically whether they were using safeguarding procedures as a shortcut for avoiding other assessments or as a means of accessing extra resources. Where potential abuse was identified social workers encouraged residential homes to use disciplinary policies as a means of isolating and managing risk. The study has implications for understanding risk within social work practice. It shows that whilst social workers use law to govern individuals, these laws are interpreted against cultural values. Additionally they also draw on assumptions about the culture of others.

Keywords: adult safeguarding, governmentality, risk, risk assessment

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Authors: Beng Yew Low, Cher Liang Cha, Cheng Yong Teoh

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Due to a lack of continual assessment or grade related data, identifying first-year engineering students in a polytechnic education at risk of failing is challenging. Our experience over the years tells us that there is no strong correlation between having good entry grades in Mathematics and the Sciences and excelling in hardcore engineering subjects. Hence, identifying students at risk of failure cannot be on the basis of entry grades in Mathematics and the Sciences alone. These factors compound the difficulty of early identification and intervention. This paper describes the development of a predictive analytics model in the early detection of students at risk of failing and evaluates its effectiveness. Data from continual assessments conducted in term one, supplemented by data of student psychological profiles such as interests and study habits, were used. Three classification techniques, namely Logistic Regression, K Nearest Neighbour, and Random Forest, were used in our predictive model. Based on our findings, Random Forest was determined to be the strongest predictor with an Area Under the Curve (AUC) value of 0.994. Correspondingly, the Accuracy, Precision, Recall, and F-Score were also highest among these three classifiers. Using this Random Forest Classification technique, students at risk of failure could be identified at the end of term one. They could then be assigned to a Learning Support Programme at the beginning of term two. This paper gathers the results of our findings. It also proposes further improvements that can be made to the model.

Keywords: continual assessment, predictive analytics, random forest, student psychological profile

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Authors: Mahalakshmi Vivekanandan S.

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As per the recent changes happening in the global policies, climate-related changes and the impact it causes across every sector are viewed as green swan events – in essence, climate-related changes can often happen and lead to risk and a lot of uncertainty, but needs to be mitigated instead of considering them as black swan events. This brings about a question on how this risk can be computed so that the financial institutions can plan to mitigate it. Climate-related changes impact all risk types – credit risk, market risk, operational risk, liquidity risk, reputational risk and other risk types. And the models required to compute this has to consider the different industrial needs of the counterparty, as well as the factors that are contributing to this – be it in the form of different risk drivers, or the different transmission channels or the different approaches and the granular form of data availability. This brings out the suggestion that the climate-related changes, though it affects Pillar I risks, will be a Pillar II risk. This has to be modeled specifically based on the financial institution’s actual exposure to different industries instead of generalizing the risk charge. And this will have to be considered as the additional capital to be met by the financial institution in addition to their Pillar I risks, as well as the existing Pillar II risks. In this paper, the author presents a risk assessment framework to model and assess climate change risks - for both credit and market risks. This framework helps in assessing the different scenarios and how the different transition risks affect the risk associated with the different parties. This research paper delves into the topic of the increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases that in turn cause global warming. It then considers the various scenarios of having the different risk drivers impacting the Credit and market risk of an institution by understanding the transmission channels and also considering the transition risk. The paper then focuses on the industry that’s fast seeing a disruption: the automobile industry. The paper uses the framework to show how the climate changes and the change to the relevant policies have impacted the entire financial institution. Appropriate statistical models for forecasting, anomaly detection and scenario modeling are built to demonstrate how the framework can be used by the relevant agencies to understand their financial risks. The paper also focuses on the climate risk calculation for the Pillar II Capital calculations and how it will make sense for the bank to maintain this in addition to their regular Pillar I and Pillar II capital.

Keywords: capital calculation, climate risk, credit risk, pillar ii risk, scenario modeling

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Authors: Claire Xu, Welton Wang, Manasvi Pinnaka, Anqi Pan, Michael Han

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Hospitalizations account for one-third of the total health care spending in the US. Early risk detection and intervention can reduce this high cost and increase the satisfaction of both patients and physicians. Due to the lack of awareness of the potential arising risks in home environment, the opportunities for patients to seek early actions of clinical visits are dramatically reduced. This research aims to offer a highly personalized remote patients monitoring and risk assessment AI framework to identify the potentially preventable hospitalization for both acute as well as chronic diseases. A hybrid-AI framework is trained with data from clinical setting, patients surveys, as well as online databases. 20+ risk factors are analyzed ranging from activities, biometric info, demographic info, socio-economic info, hospitalization history, medication info, lifestyle info, etc. The AI model yields high performance of 87% accuracy and 88 sensitivity with 20+ features. This hybrid-AI framework is proven to be effective in identifying the potentially preventable hospitalization. Further, the high indicative features are identified by the models which guide us to a healthy lifestyle and early intervention suggestions.

Keywords: hospitalization prevention, machine learning, remote patient monitoring, risk prediction

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Authors: Ghorbanali Mohammadi

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Background: The objectives of this study were the association between physical and psychological risk factors for occupational lower back and neck pain among industrial workers. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional study among 400 male workers of an industrial company over the previous 7days and 12 months. Data were collected using Nordic and third version of COPSOO questionnaires and QEC method for assessment of postures during the work. Results: The prevalence of LB and NP in the last 12 months is 58% and 52% respectively. The relationship between risk factors and low back/ neck pain in the last 12 months were cognitive demands (OR 995% CI 1.65) and (OR 995% CI 1.75); Influence at work (OR 995% CI 2.21) and (OR 995% CI 1.85); quality of leadership (OR 995% CI 2.42) and (OR 995% CI 2.09) was strongly correlated with complaints of low back and neck pains. Conclusion: Data of this study showed a higher prevalence of LBP and NP in the subjects. The results revealed that workers with work experience of more than 12 yrs. and who work more than 8 hrs. days with smoking habits had more probability to develop both LBP and NP.

Keywords: low back pain, neck pain, physical risk factors, psychological risk factors, QEC, COPSOQ III

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Authors: Sonda Jallouli, Sameh Ghroubi, Salma Sakka, Abdelmoneem Yahia, Mohamed Habib Elleuch, Imen Ben Dhia, Chokri Mhiri, Omar Hammouda

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The pathophysiology, prevalence, and progression of MS are gender dependent. Indeed, the inflammation is more pronounced in women, but the neurodegeneration is more important in men. In addition, women have more sleep disorders while men suffer more from cognitive decline. These non-physical disorders can negatively affect postural balance and fall risk. However, no study has examined the difference between men and women in those physical parameters in MS. Our objective was to determine the effect gender difference on postural balance and fall risk in MS persons. Methods: Eight men and twelve women with relapsing remitting-MS participated in this study. The assessment includes a posturographic examination to assess static (with eyes opened (EO) and eyes closed (EC)) and dynamic (with EO) postural balance. Unipedal balance and fall risk were assessed by a clinical unipedal balance test and the Four Square Step Test, respectively. Sleep quality was assessed using Spiegel's questionnaire, and cognitive assessment was performed using the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) and the Simple Reaction Time Test. Results: Compared to men, women showed an increase in CdPVm in static bipedal condition with EC (p=0.037; d=0.71) and a decrease in MoCA scores (p=0.028; d=1.06). No gender differences were found in the other tests. Discussion: Static postural balance was more impaired in women compared to men. This result could be explained by the more pronounced cognitive decline observed in women compared to men. Indeed, cognitive disorders have been shown to be predictive factors of postural balance impairment. Conclusion: women were less stable than men in the static condition, possibly due to their lower cognitive performance. This gender difference could be taken into account by therapists in training programs.

Keywords: multiple sclerosis, bipedal postural balance, fall risk, sleep disturbance, cognitive deficiency

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Authors: Maciej Bialorudzki, Zbigniew Izdebski, Alicja Kozakiewicz, Joanna Mazur

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The quality of sleep is extremely important for physical and mental health, especially among professional groups exposed to the suffering of the people they serve. The aim of the study is to assess sleep quality and various aspects of physical and mental health. A nationwide cross-sectional survey conducted in the first quarter of 2022 included 2227 healthcare professionals from 114 Polish hospitals and specialized outpatient clinics. The following distribution for each professional group was obtained (22% doctors; 52.6% nurses; 7.3% paramedics; 10.1% other medical professionals; 7.9% other non-medical professionals). The mean age of the respondents was 46.24 (SD=11.53). The Jenkins Sleep Scale with four items (JSS-4) was used to assess sleep quality, yielding a mean value of 5.35 (SD=5.20) in the study group and 13.7% of subjects with poor sleep quality using the cutoff point of the mean JSS-4 sum score as >11. More often, women than men reported poorer sleep quality (14,8% vs. 9,1% p=0,002). Respondents with poor sleep quality were more likely to report occupational burnout as measured by the BAT-12 (43.1% vs. 12.9% p<0.001) and high levels of stress as measured by the PSS-4 (72.5% vs. 27.5% p<0.001). In addition, those who declare experiencing a traumatic event compared to those who have not experienced it has an almost two times higher risk of poorer sleep quality (OR:1.958; 95% CI:1.509-2.542; p<0.001). In contrast, those with occupational burnout had more than five times the risk of those without occupational burnout (OR:5.092; 95% CI: 3.763-6.889; p<0.001). Sleep quality remains an important predictor of stress levels, job burnout, and quality of life assessment.

Keywords: quality of sleep, medical staff, mental health, physical health, occupational burnout, stress

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Authors: Mehrdad Abkenari, Mehmet Kunt, Mahdi Nourollahi

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Evaluating the environmental risk factors is a combination of analysis of transportation effects. Various definitions for risk can be found in different scientific sources. Each definition depends on a specific and particular perspective or dimension. The effects of potential risks present along the new proposed routes and existing infrastructures of large transportation projects like railways should be studied under comprehensive engineering frameworks. Despite various definitions provided for ‘risk’, all include a uniform concept. Two obvious aspects, loss and unreliability, have always been pointed in all definitions of this term. But, selection as the third aspect is usually implied and means how one notices it. Currently, conducting engineering studies on the environmental effects of railway projects have become obligatory according to the Environmental Assessment Act in developing countries. Considering the longitudinal nature of these projects and probable passage of railways through various ecosystems, scientific research on the environmental risk of these projects have become of great interest. Although many areas of expertise such as road construction in developing countries have not seriously committed to these studies yet, attention to these subjects in establishment or implementation of different systems have become an inseparable part of this wave of research. The present study used environmental risks identified and existing in previous studies and stations to use in next step. The second step proposes a new hybrid approach of analytical network process (ANP) and DEMATEL in fuzzy conditions for assessment of determined risks. Since evaluation of identified risks was not an easy touch, mesh structure was an appropriate approach for analyzing complex systems which were accordingly employed for problem description and modeling. Researchers faced the shortage of real space data and also due to the ambiguity of experts’ opinions and judgments, they were declared in language variables instead of numerical ones. Since fuzzy logic is appropriate for ambiguity and uncertainty, formulation of experts’ opinions in the form of fuzzy numbers seemed an appropriate approach. Fuzzy DEMATEL method was used to extract the relations between major and minor risk factors. Considering the internal relations of risk major factors and its sub-factors in the analysis of fuzzy network, the weight of risk’s main factors and sub-factors were determined. In general, findings of the present study, in which effective railway environmental risk indicators were theoretically identified and rated through the first usage of combined model of DEMATEL and fuzzy network analysis, indicate that environmental risks can be evaluated more accurately and also employed in railway projects.

Keywords: DEMATEL, ANP, fuzzy, risk

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Authors: Aisha F. Bushager

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Today we are more exposed than ever to cyber threats and attacks at personal, community, organizational, national, and international levels. More aspects of our lives are operating on computer networks simply because we are living in the fifth domain, which is called the Cyberspace. One of the most sensitive areas that are vulnerable to cyber threats and attacks is the Electronic Banking (e-Banking) area, where the banking sector is providing online banking services to its clients. To be able to obtain the clients trust and encourage them to practice e-Banking, also, to maintain the services provided by the banks and ensure safety, cyber security and risks control should be given a high priority in the e-banking area. The aim of the study is to carry out risk assessment on the e-banking services and determine the cyber threats, cyber attacks, and vulnerabilities that are facing the e-banking area specifically in the Kingdom of Bahrain. To collect relevant data, structured interviews were taken place with e-banking experts in different banks. Then, collected data where used as in input to the risk management framework provided by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), which was the model used in the study to assess the risks associated with e-banking services. The findings of the study showed that the cyber threats are commonly human errors, technical software or hardware failure, and hackers, on the other hand, the most common attacks facing the e-banking sector were phishing, malware attacks, and denial-of-service. The risks associated with the e-banking services were around the moderate level, however, more controls and countermeasures must be applied to maintain the moderate level of risks. The results of the study will help banks discover their vulnerabilities and maintain their online services, in addition, it will enhance the cyber security and contribute to the management and control of risks that are facing the e-banking sector.

Keywords: cyber security, e-banking, risk assessment, threats identification

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Authors: Lorifel Hinay

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Natural disasters have increased in frequency and severity in the Philippines over the years resulting to detrimental impacts in school properties and lives of learners. The topography of the Province of Southern Leyte is a hotspot for inevitable natural disaster-causing hazards that could affect schools, cripple the educational system and cause environmental, cultural and social detrimental impacts making Disaster Risk Reduction and Management (DRRM) an indispensable platform to keep learners safe, secure and resilient. This study determined the schools’ vulnerability and risk assessment to earthquake, landslide, flood, storm surge and tsunami hazards, and its relationship to status in disaster preparedness. Descriptive-correlational research design was used where the respondents were School DRRM Coordinators/School Administrators and Municipal DRRM Officers. It was found that schools’ vulnerability and risk were high in landslide, medium in earthquake, and low in flood, storm surge and tsunami. Though schools were moderately prepared in disasters across all hazards, they were less accomplished in group organization and property security. Less planning preparation and less implementation of DRRM measures were observed in schools highly at risk of earthquake and landslide. Also, schools vulnerable to landslide and flood have very high property security. Topography and location greatly contributed to schools’ vulnerability to hazards, thus, a school-based disaster preparedness plan is hoped to help ensure that hazard-exposed schools can build a culture of safety, disaster resiliency and education continuity.

Keywords: disaster risk reduction and management, earthquake, flood, landslide, storm surge, tsunami

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Authors: Orla Muldoon, Tamaryn Nicolson, Mike Quayle, Aisling O'Donnell

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Psychology most often considers the role of experience and behaviour in shaping health at the individual level. On the other hand epidemiology has long considered risk at the wider group or structural level. Here we use the social identity approach to integrate group-level risk with individual level behaviour. Using a social identity approach we demonstrate that group or macro-level factors impact implicitly and profoundly in everyday ways at the level of individuals, via social identities. We illustrate how identities related to race, gender and inequality intersect to affect HIV/AIDS risk and AIDS treatment behaviours; how social identity processes drive stigmatising consequences of HIV and AIDS, and promote positive and effective interventions. We conclude by arguing that the social identity approach offers the field an explanatory framework that conceptualizes how social and political forces intersect with individual identity and agency to affect human health.

Keywords: social identity approach, HIV/AIDS, Africa, HIV risk, race, gender

Procedia PDF Downloads 501