Search results for: forecasting accuracy

Authors: Md Abdullah Al Mashud, M. Tariquzzaman, M. Jahangir Alam, Tapan Kumar Godder, M. Mahbubur Rahman

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This paper presents a Monte Carlo (MC) method-based dose distributions on lung tumor for 6 MV photon beam to improve the dosimetric accuracy for cancer treatment. The polystyrene which is tissue equivalent material to the lung tumor density is used in this research. In the empirical calculations, TRS-398 formalism of IAEA has been used, and the setup was made according to the ICRU recommendations. The research outcomes were compared with the state-of-the-art experimental results. From the experimental results, it is observed that the proposed based approach provides more accurate results and improves the accuracy than the existing approaches. The average %variation between measured and TPS simulated values was obtained 1.337±0.531, which shows a substantial improvement comparing with the state-of-the-art technology.

Keywords: lung tumour, Monte Carlo, polystyrene, Elekta synergy, Monaco planning system

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Authors: Emmanuel Osaze Oshoiribhor, Adetokunbo MacGregor John-Otumu

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There has been a need in recent years to predict student academic achievement prior to graduation. This is to assist them in improving their grades, especially for those who have struggled in the past. The purpose of this research is to use supervised learning techniques to create a model that predicts student academic progress. Many scholars have developed models that predict student academic achievement based on characteristics including smoking, demography, culture, social media, parent educational background, parent finances, and family background, to mention a few. This element, as well as the model used, could have misclassified the kids in terms of their academic achievement. As a prerequisite to predicting if the student will perform well in the future on related courses, this model is built using a logistic regression classifier with basic features such as the previous semester's course score, attendance to class, class participation, and the total number of course materials or resources the student is able to cover per semester. With a 96.7 percent accuracy, the model outperformed other classifiers such as Naive bayes, Support vector machine (SVM), Decision Tree, Random forest, and Adaboost. This model is offered as a desktop application with user-friendly interfaces for forecasting student academic progress for both teachers and students. As a result, both students and professors are encouraged to use this technique to predict outcomes better.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, ML, logistic regression, performance, prediction

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Authors: Jacky Hau

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The prevalence of emerging technologies disrupts various industries as well as consumer behavior. Data collection has been in the fingertip and inherited through enabled Internet-of-things (IOT) devices. Big data analytics (BDA) becomes possible and allows real-time demand network management (DNM) through leagile supply chain. To enhance further on its resilience and predictability, governance is going to be examined to promote supply chain transparency and trust in an efficient manner. Leagility combines lean thinking and agile techniques in supply chain management. It aims at reducing costs and waste, as well as maintaining responsiveness to any volatile consumer demand by means of adjusting the decoupling point where the product flow changes from push to pull. Leagility would only be successful when collaborative planning, forecasting, and replenishment (CPFR) process or alike is in place throughout the supply chain business entities. Governance and procurement of the supply chain, however, is crucial and challenging for the execution of CPFR as every entity has to walk-the-talk generously for the sake of overall benefits of supply chain performance, not to mention the complexity of exercising the polices at both of within across various supply chain business entities on account of organizational behavior and mutual trust. Empirical survey results showed that the effective timespan on demand forecasting had been drastically shortening in the magnitude of months to weeks planning horizon, thus agility shall come first and preferably following by lean approach in a timely manner.

Keywords: governance, leagility, procure-to-pay, source-to-contract

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Authors: Nadia el Atlas, Mohammed el Aroussi, Mohammed Wahbi

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In this paper a novel technique of mass characterization based on robust features-fusion is presented. The proposed method consists of mainly four stages: (a) the first phase involves segmenting the masses using edge information’s. (b) The second phase is to calculate and fuse the most relevant morphological features. (c) The last phase is the classification step which allows us to classify the images into benign and malignant masses. In this step we have implemented Support Vectors Machines (SVM) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), which were evaluated with the following performance criteria: confusion matrix, accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, receiver operating characteristic ROC, and error histogram. The effectiveness of this new approach was evaluated by a recently developed database: INBREAST database. The fusion of the most appropriate morphological features provided very good results. The SVM gives accuracy to within 64.3%. Whereas the ANN classifier gives better results with an accuracy of 97.5%.

Keywords: breast cancer, mammography, CAD system, features, fusion

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Authors: Muhammad Saad Aslam

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In 2021, our organization has launched our proprietary mobile App i.e. Farm Intelligence platform, an industrial-first precision agriculture solution, to Pakistan. It was piloted at 47 locations (spanning around 1,200 hectares of land), addressing growers’ pain points by bringing the benefits of precision agriculture to their doorsteps. This year, we have extended its reach by more than 10 times (nearly 130,000 hectares of land) in almost 600 locations across the country. The project team selected highly infested areas to set up traps, which then enabled the sales team to initiate evidence-based conversations with the grower community about preventive crop protection products that includes pesticides and insecticides. Mega farmer meeting field visits and demonstrations plots coupled with extensive marketing activities, were setup to include farmer community. With the help of App real-time pest monitoring (using heat maps and infestation prediction through predictive analytics) we have equipped our growers with on spot insights that will help them optimize pesticide applications. Heat maps allow growers to identify infestation hot spots to fine-tune pesticide delivery, while predictive analytics enable preventive application of pesticides before the situation escalates. Ultimately, they empower growers to keep their crops safe for a healthy harvest.

Keywords: precision pest management, precision agriculture, real time pest tracking, pest forecasting

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Authors: Young-Hyun Seo, Hosuk Shin, Eun-Hak Lee, Seung-Young Kho

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This study analyzed and visualized the rental and return data of the public bike sharing system in Seoul, Ttareungyi, from September 2015 to October 2017. With the surge of system users, the number of times of collection and distribution in 2017 increased by three times compared to 2016. The city plans to deploy about 20,000 public bicycles by the end of 2017 to expand the system. Based on about 3.3 million historical data, we calculated the average trip time and the number of trips from one station to another station. The mobility patterns between stations are graphically displayed using R and Tableau. Demand for public bike sharing system is heavily influenced by day and weather. As a result of plotting the number of rentals and returns of some stations on weekdays and weekends at intervals of one hour, there was a difference in rental patterns. As a result of analysis of the rental and return patterns by time of day, there were a lot of returns at the morning peak and more rentals at the afternoon peak at the center of the city. It means that stock of bikes varies largely in the time zone and public bikes should be rebalanced timely. The result of this study can be applied as a primary data to construct the demand forecasting function of the station when establishing the rebalancing strategy of the public bicycle.

Keywords: demand forecasting, mobility patterns, public bike sharing system, visualization

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Authors: Aditya Karade, Sharada Falane, Dhananjay Deshmukh, Vijaykumar Mantri

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Brain tumors pose a significant challenge in healthcare due to their complex nature and impact on patient outcomes. The application of deep learning (DL) algorithms in medical imaging have shown promise in accurate and efficient brain tumour detection. This paper explores the performance of various pre-trained DL models ResNet50, Xception, InceptionV3, EfficientNetB0, DenseNet121, NASNetMobile, VGG19, VGG16, and MobileNet on a brain tumour dataset sourced from Figshare. The dataset consists of MRI scans categorizing different types of brain tumours, including meningioma, pituitary, glioma, and no tumour. The study involves a comprehensive evaluation of these models’ accuracy and effectiveness in classifying brain tumour images. Data preprocessing, augmentation, and finetuning techniques are employed to optimize model performance. Among the evaluated deep learning models for brain tumour detection, ResNet50 emerges as the top performer with an accuracy of 98.86%. Following closely is Xception, exhibiting a strong accuracy of 97.33%. These models showcase robust capabilities in accurately classifying brain tumour images. On the other end of the spectrum, VGG16 trails with the lowest accuracy at 89.02%.

Keywords: brain tumour, MRI image, detecting and classifying tumour, pre-trained models, transfer learning, image segmentation, data augmentation

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Authors: Y. Sunecher, N. Mamode Khan, V. Jowaheer

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This paper considers the modelling of a non-stationary bivariate integer-valued autoregressive moving average of order one (BINARMA(1,1)) with correlated Poisson innovations. The BINARMA(1,1) model is specified using the binomial thinning operator and by assuming that the cross-correlation between the two series is induced by the innovation terms only. Based on these assumptions, the non-stationary marginal and joint moments of the BINARMA(1,1) are derived iteratively by using some initial stationary moments. As regards to the estimation of parameters of the proposed model, the conditional maximum likelihood (CML) estimation method is derived based on thinning and convolution properties. The forecasting equations of the BINARMA(1,1) model are also derived. A simulation study is also proposed where BINARMA(1,1) count data are generated using a multivariate Poisson R code for the innovation terms. The performance of the BINARMA(1,1) model is then assessed through a simulation experiment and the mean estimates of the model parameters obtained are all efficient, based on their standard errors. The proposed model is then used to analyse a real-life accident data on the motorway in Mauritius, based on some covariates: policemen, daily patrol, speed cameras, traffic lights and roundabouts. The BINARMA(1,1) model is applied on the accident data and the CML estimates clearly indicate a significant impact of the covariates on the number of accidents on the motorway in Mauritius. The forecasting equations also provide reliable one-step ahead forecasts.

Keywords: non-stationary, BINARMA(1, 1) model, Poisson innovations, conditional maximum likelihood, CML

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Authors: Di Luo, Maria Buchberger, Anja Pickhard

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Objectives: The purpose of this study was to assess and compare the diagnostic accuracy of four common morphological approaches, including sonography, computed tomography (CT), positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT), and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) for the evaluation of cervical lymph node metastases in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) patients. Material and Methods: Included in this retrospective study were 26 patients diagnosed with HNSCC between 2010 and 2011 who all underwent sonography, CT, PET/CT, and MRI imaging before neck dissection. Morphological data were compared to the corresponding histopathological results. Statistical analysis was performed with SPSS statistic software (version 26.0), calculating sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), and accuracy for detection of cervical lymph node metastases. Results: The 5-year survival rate of the patient collective was 55.5%.Risk factors for survival included initial primary tumor stage, initial lymph node stage, initial metastasis status, and therapeutic approaches. Cox regression showed initial metastasis status(HR 8.671, 95%CI 1.316-57.123, p=0.025) and therapeutic approaches(HR 6.699, 95%CI 1.746-25.700, p=0.006)to be independent predictive risk factors for survival. Sensitivity was highest for MRI (96% compared to 85% for sonography and 89% for CT and PET/CT). Specificity was comparable with 95 % for CT and 98 % for sonography and PET/CT, but only 68% for MRI. While the MRI showed the least PPV (34%) compared to all other methods (85% for sonography,75% for CT, and 86% for PET/CT), the NPV was comparable in all methods(98-99%). The overall accuracy of cervical lymph node metastases detection was comparable for sonography, CT, and PET/CT with 96%,97%,94%, respectively, while MRI had only 72% accuracy. Conclusion: Since the initial status of metastasis is an independent predictive risk factor for patients’ survival, efficient detection is crucial to plan adequate therapeutic approaches. Sonography, CT, and PET/CT have better diagnostic accuracy than MRI for the evaluation of cervical lymph node metastases in HNSCC patients.

Keywords: cervical lymph node metastases, diagnostic accuracy, head and neck squamous carcinoma, risk factors, survival

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Authors: Ho-Hsin Lee, Yue-Min Jiang, Shu-Hui Tsai, Jian-Ren Chen, Mei-Yu XU, Wen-Tien Wu

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This project presents an AI-based method and system for wound status analysis. The system uses a three-in-one sensor device to analyze wound status, including color, temperature, and a 3D sensor to provide wound information up to 2mm below the surface, such as redness, heat, and blood circulation information. The system has a 90% accuracy rate, requiring only one manual correction in 70% of cases, with a one-second delay. The system also provides an offline application that allows for manual correction of the wound bed range using color-based guidance to estimate wound bed size with 96% accuracy and a maximum of one manual correction in 96% of cases, with a one-second delay. Additionally, AI-assisted wound bed range selection achieves 100% of cases without manual intervention, with an accuracy rate of 76%, while AI-based wound tissue type classification achieves an 85.3% accuracy rate for five categories. The AI system also includes similar case search and expert recommendation capabilities. For AI-assisted wound range selection, the system uses WIFI6 technology, increasing data transmission speeds by 22 times. The project aims to save up to 64% of the time required for human wound record keeping and reduce the estimated time to assess wound status by 96%, with an 80% accuracy rate. Overall, the proposed AI method and system integrate multiple sensors to provide accurate wound information and offer offline and online AI-assisted wound bed size estimation and wound tissue type classification. The system decreases delay time to one second, reduces the number of manual corrections required, saves time on wound record keeping, and increases data transmission speed, all of which have the potential to significantly improve wound care and management efficiency and accuracy.

Keywords: wound status analysis, AI-based system, multi-sensor integration, color-based guidance

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Authors: John G. Vongas, Raghid Al Hajj

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We investigated the effects of winning and losing on men’s testosterone and assessed whether androgen reactivity affected their empathic accuracy and their aggression. We also explored whether their power motivation would moderate the relationships between competitive, hormonal, and behavioral outcomes. In Experiment 1, 84 males competed on a task that allegedly gauged their leadership potential and future earnings, after which they interpreted people’s emotional expressions. Results showed that winners were more capable of accurately inferring others’ emotions compared to losers and this ability improved with increasing power. Second, testosterone change mediated the relationship between competitive outcomes and empathic accuracy, with post-competitive testosterone increases relating to more accuracy. In Experiment 2, 72 males again competed after which they were measured on two aggression subtypes: proactive and reactive. Results showed that neither the competitive outcome nor the testosterone change had a significant effect on either types of aggression. However, as power increased, winners aggressed more proactively than losers whereas losers aggressed more reactively than winners. Finally, in both experiments, power moderated the relationship between competitive outcomes and testosterone change. Collectively, these studies add to existing research that explores the psychophysiological effects of competition on individuals’ empathic and aggressive responses.

Keywords: competition, testosterone, power motivation, empathic accuracy, proactive aggression, reactive aggression

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Authors: Halefom Kidane

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This study aims to assess the wind resource potential and characterize the urban area wind patterns in Hawassa City, Ethiopia. The estimation and characterization of wind resources are crucial for sustainable urban planning, renewable energy development, and climate change mitigation strategies. A secondary data collection method was used to carry out the study. The collected data at 2 meters was analyzed statistically and extrapolated to the standard heights of 10-meter and 30-meter heights using the power law equation. The standard deviation method was used to calculate the value of scale and shape factors. From the analysis presented, the maximum and minimum mean daily wind speed at 2 meters in 2016 was 1.33 m/s and 0.05 m/s in 2017, 1.67 m/s and 0.14 m/s in 2018, 1.61m and 0.07 m/s, respectively. The maximum monthly average wind speed of Hawassa City in 2016 at 2 meters was noticed in the month of December, which is around 0.78 m/s, while in 2017, the maximum wind speed was recorded in the month of January with a wind speed magnitude of 0.80 m/s and in 2018 June was maximum speed which is 0.76 m/s. On the other hand, October was the month with the minimum mean wind speed in all years, with a value of 0.47 m/s in 2016,0.47 in 2017 and 0.34 in 2018. The annual mean wind speed was 0.61 m/s in 2016,0.64, m/s in 2017 and 0.57 m/s in 2018 at a height of 2 meters. From extrapolation, the annual mean wind speeds for the years 2016,2017 and 2018 at 10 heights were 1.17 m/s,1.22 m/s, and 1.11 m/s, and at the height of 30 meters, were 3.34m/s,3.78 m/s, and 3.01 m/s respectively/Thus, the site consists mainly primarily classes-I of wind speed even at the extrapolated heights.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, forecasting, min-max normalization, wind speed

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Authors: Aarati Susan Mathew, Radhika Narendra Patel, Jiji Mathew

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A retrospective study conducted at Christian Medical College (CMC) Teaching Hospital, Vellore, India on 14th August 2014 to assess the accuracy of clinically estimated foetal weight upon labour admission. Estimating foetal weight is a crucial factor in assessing maternal and foetal complications during and after labour. Medical notes of ninety-eight postnatal women who fulfilled the inclusion criteria were studied to evaluate the correlation between their recorded Estimated Foetal Weight (EFW) on admission and actual birth weight (ABW) of the newborn after delivery. Data concerning maternal and foetal demographics was also noted. Accuracy was determined by absolute percentage error and proportion of estimates within 10% of ABW. Actual birth weights ranged from 950-4080g. A strong positive correlation between EFW and ABW (r=0.904) was noted. Term deliveries (≥40 weeks) in the normal weight range (2500-4000g) had a 59.5% estimation accuracy (n=74) compared to pre-term (<40 weeks) with an estimation accuracy of 0% (n=2). Out of the term deliveries, macrosomic babies (>4000g) were underestimated by 25% (n=3) and low birthweight (LBW) babies were overestimated by 12.7% (n=9). Registrars who estimated foetal weight were accurate in babies within normal weight ranges. However, there needs to be an improvement in predicting weight of macrosomic and LBW foetuses. We have suggested the use of an amended version of the Johnson’s formula for the Indian population for improvement and a need to re-audit once implemented.

Keywords: clinical palpation, estimated foetal weight, pregnancy, India, Johnson’s formula

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Authors: Kayode A. Olaniyi, Olabanji F. Omotoye, Adeola A. Ogunleye

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The skew detection and correction form an important part of digital document analysis. This is because uncompensated skew can deteriorate document features and can complicate further document image processing steps. Efficient text document analysis and digitization can rarely be achieved when a document is skewed even at a small angle. Once the documents have been digitized through the scanning system and binarization also achieved, document skew correction is required before further image analysis. Research efforts have been put in this area with algorithms developed to eliminate document skew. Skew angle correction algorithms can be compared based on performance criteria. Most important performance criteria are accuracy of skew angle detection, range of skew angle for detection, speed of processing the image, computational complexity and consequently memory space used. The standard Hough Transform has successfully been implemented for text documentation skew angle estimation application. However, the standard Hough Transform algorithm level of accuracy depends largely on how much fine the step size for the angle used. This consequently consumes more time and memory space for increase accuracy and, especially where number of pixels is considerable large. Whenever the Hough transform is used, there is always a tradeoff between accuracy and speed. So a more efficient solution is needed that optimizes space as well as time. In this paper, an improved Hough transform (HT) technique that optimizes space as well as time to robustly detect document skew is presented. The modified algorithm of Hough Transform presents solution to the contradiction between the memory space, running time and accuracy. Our algorithm starts with the first step of angle estimation accurate up to zero decimal place using the standard Hough Transform algorithm achieving minimal running time and space but lacks relative accuracy. Then to increase accuracy, suppose estimated angle found using the basic Hough algorithm is x degree, we then run again basic algorithm from range between ±x degrees with accuracy of one decimal place. Same process is iterated till level of desired accuracy is achieved. The procedure of our skew estimation and correction algorithm of text images is implemented using MATLAB. The memory space estimation and process time are also tabulated with skew angle assumption of within 00 and 450. The simulation results which is demonstrated in Matlab show the high performance of our algorithms with less computational time and memory space used in detecting document skew for a variety of documents with different levels of complexity.

Keywords: hough-transform, skew-detection, skew-angle, skew-correction, text-document

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Authors: Khaled Barkaoui

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Research on second-language (L2) learning tends to focus on comparing students with different levels of proficiency at one point in time. However, to understand L2 development, we need more longitudinal research. In this study, we adopt a longitudinal approach to examine changes in three indicators of L2 ability, complexity, accuracy, and fluency (CAF), as reflected in the writing of L2 learners when writing on different tasks before and after a period L2 instruction. Each of 85 Chinese learners of English at three levels of English language proficiency responded to two writing tasks (independent and integrated) before and after nine months of English-language study in China. Each essay (N= 276) was analyzed in terms of numerous CAF indices using both computer coding and human rating: number of words written, number of errors per 100 words, ratings of error severity, global syntactic complexity (MLS), complexity by coordination (T/S), complexity by subordination (C/T), clausal complexity (MLC), phrasal complexity (NP density), syntactic variety, lexical density, lexical variation, lexical sophistication, and lexical bundles. Results were then compared statistically across tasks, L2 proficiency levels, and time. Overall, task type had significant effects on fluency and some syntactic complexity indices (complexity by coordination, structural variety, clausal complexity, phrase complexity) and lexical density, sophistication, and bundles, but not accuracy. L2 proficiency had significant effects on fluency, accuracy, and lexical variation, but not syntactic complexity. Finally, fluency, frequency of errors, but not accuracy ratings, syntactic complexity indices (clausal complexity, global complexity, complexity by subordination, phrase complexity, structural variety) and lexical complexity (lexical density, variation, and sophistication) exhibited significant changes after instruction, particularly for the independent task. We discuss the findings and their implications for assessment, instruction, and research on CAF in the context of L2 writing.

Keywords: second language writing, Fluency, accuracy, complexity, longitudinal

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Authors: Yu-Wen Chen, Szu-Wei Huang, Chung-Hsiang Mu, Kelvin Cheng

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This paper developed a data-driven based model to deal with the causality between the Continuous Emission Monitoring System (CEMS, by Environmental Protection Administration, Taiwan) in industrial factories, and the air quality around environment. Compared to the heavy burden of traditional numerical models of regional weather and air pollution simulation, the lightweight burden of the proposed model can provide forecasting hourly with current observations of weather, air pollution and emissions from factories. The observation data are included wind speed, wind direction, relative humidity, temperature and others. The observations can be collected real time from Open APIs of civil IoT Taiwan, which are sourced from 439 weather stations, 10,193 qualitative air stations, 77 national quantitative stations and 140 CEMS quantitative industrial factories. This study completed a causal inference engine and gave an air pollution forecasting for the next 12 hours related to local industrial factories. The outcomes of the pollution forecasting are produced hourly with a grid resolution of 1km*1km on IIoTC (Industrial Internet of Things Cloud) and saved in netCDF4 format. The elaborated procedures to generate forecasts comprise data recalibrating, outlier elimination, Kriging Interpolation and particle tracking and random walk techniques for the mechanisms of diffusion and advection. The solution of these equations reveals the causality between factories emission and the associated air pollution. Further, with the aid of installed real-time flue emission (Total Suspension Emission, TSP) sensors and the mentioned forecasted air pollution map, this study also disclosed the converting mechanism between the TSP and PM2.5/PM10 for different region and industrial characteristics, according to the long-term data observation and calibration. These different time-series qualitative and quantitative data which successfully achieved a causal inference engine in cloud for factory management control in practicable. Once the forecasted air quality for a region is marked as harmful, the correlated factories are notified and asked to suppress its operation and reduces emission in advance.

Keywords: continuous emission monitoring system, total suspension particulates, causal inference, air pollution forecast, IoT

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Authors: Sorayya Malek, Mogeeb Mosleh, Sharifah M. Syed

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In this study, Support Vector Machine (SVM) technique was applied to predict the dichotomized value of Dissolved oxygen (DO) from two freshwater lakes namely Chini and Bera Lake (Malaysia). Data sample contained 11 parameters for water quality features from year 2005 until 2009. All data parameters were used to predicate the dissolved oxygen concentration which was dichotomized into 3 different levels (High, Medium, and Low). The input parameters were ranked, and forward selection method was applied to determine the optimum parameters that yield the lowest errors, and highest accuracy. Initial results showed that pH, water temperature, and conductivity are the most important parameters that significantly affect the predication of DO. Then, SVM model was applied using the Anova kernel with those parameters yielded 74% accuracy rate. We concluded that using SVM models to predicate the DO is feasible, and using dichotomized value of DO yields higher prediction accuracy than using precise DO value.

Keywords: dissolved oxygen, water quality, predication DO, support vector machine

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Authors: Jianhong Xiang, Hao Xiang, Linyu Wang

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Compressed sensing (CS) has a wide range of applications in sparse signal reconstruction. Aiming at the problems of low recovery accuracy and long reconstruction time of existing reconstruction algorithms in medical imaging, this paper proposes a corrected smoothing L0 algorithm based on compressed sensing (CSL0). First, an approximate hyperbolic tangent function (AHTF) that is more similar to the L0 norm is proposed to approximate the L0 norm. Secondly, in view of the "sawtooth phenomenon" in the steepest descent method and the problem of sensitivity to the initial value selection in the modified Newton method, the use of the steepest descent method and the modified Newton method are jointly optimized to improve the reconstruction accuracy. Finally, the CSL0 algorithm is simulated on various images. The results show that the algorithm proposed in this paper improves the reconstruction accuracy of the test image by 0-0. 98dB.

Keywords: smoothed L0, compressed sensing, image processing, sparse reconstruction

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Authors: Tianyu Wang, Nikita Karandikar

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The uncertainty around cost, safety, and feasibility of the decarbonized shipping fuels has made it increasingly complex for the shipping companies to set pricing strategies and forecast their freight revenues going forward. The increase in the green fuel surcharges will ultimately influence the automobile’s consumer prices. The auto shipping demand (ton-miles) has been gradually shifting from long-haul to short-sea trade over the past years following the relocation of the original equipment manufacturer (OEM) manufacturing to regions such as South America and Southeast Asia. The objective of this paper is twofold: 1) to investigate the car-carriers freight revenue development over the years when the trade pattern is gradually shifting towards short-sea exports 2) to empirically identify the quantitative impact of such trade pattern shifting to mainly freight rate, but also vessel size, fleet size as well as Green House Gas (GHG) emission in Roll on-Roll Off (Ro-Ro) shipping. In this paper, a model of analyzing and forecasting ton-miles and freight revenues for the trade routes of AS-NA (Asia to North America), EU-NA (Europe to North America), and SA-NA (South America to North America) is established by deploying Automatic Identification System (AIS) data and the financial results of a selected car carrier company. More specifically, Wallenius Wilhelmsen Logistics (WALWIL), the Norwegian Ro-Ro carrier listed on Oslo Stock Exchange, is selected as the case study company in this paper. AIS-based ton-mile datasets of WALWIL vessels that are sailing into North America region from three different origins (Asia, Europe, and South America), together with WALWIL’s quarterly freight revenues as reported in trade segments, will be investigated and compared for the past five years (2018-2022). Furthermore, ordinary‐least‐square (OLS) regression is utilized to construct the ton-mile demand and freight revenue forecasting. The determinants of trade pattern shifting, such as import tariffs following the China-US trade war and fuel prices following the 0.1% Emission Control Areas (ECA) zone requirement after IMO2020 will be set as key variable inputs to the machine learning model. The model will be tested on another newly listed Norwegian Car Carrier, Hoegh Autoliner, to forecast its 2022 financial results and to validate the accuracy based on its actual results. GHG emissions on the three routes will be compared and discussed based on a constant emission per mile assumption and voyage distances. Our findings will provide important insights about 1) the trade-off evaluation between revenue reduction and energy saving with the new ton-mile pattern and 2) how the trade flow shifting would influence the future need for the vessel and fleet size.

Keywords: AIS, automobile exports, maritime big data, trade flows

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Authors: Leah Wilck

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Eyewitness identification is arguably one of the most utilized practices within our legal system; however, exoneration cases indicate that this practice may lead to accuracy and conviction errors. The purpose of this study was to examine the effects of the cross-race effect, the phenomena in which people are able to more easily and accurately identify faces from within their racial category, on the accuracy of eyewitness identification. Participants watched three separate videos of a perpetrator trying to steal a bicycle. In each video, the perpetrator was of a different race and gender. Participants watched a video where the perpetrator was a Black male, a White male, and a White female. Following the completion of watching each video, participants were asked to recall everything they could about the perpetrator they witnessed. The initial results of the study did not find the expected cross-race effect impacted the eyewitness identification accuracy. These surprising results are discussed in terms of cross-race bias and recognition theory as well as applied implications.

Keywords: cross race effect, eyewitness identification, own-race bias, racial profiling

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Authors: Jonathan Gong

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Purpose AI-driven solutions are at the forefront of many pathology and medical imaging methods. Using algorithms designed to better the experience of medical professionals within their respective fields, the efficiency and accuracy of diagnosis can improve. In particular, X-rays are a fast and relatively inexpensive test that can diagnose diseases. In recent years, X-rays have not been widely used to detect and diagnose COVID-19. The under use of Xrays is mainly due to the low diagnostic accuracy and confounding with pneumonia, another respiratory disease. However, research in this field has expressed a possibility that artificial neural networks can successfully diagnose COVID-19 with high accuracy. Models and Data The dataset used is the COVID-19 Radiography Database. This dataset includes images and masks of chest X-rays under the labels of COVID-19, normal, and pneumonia. The classification model developed uses an autoencoder and a pre-trained convolutional neural network (DenseNet201) to provide transfer learning to the model. The model then uses a deep neural network to finalize the feature extraction and predict the diagnosis for the input image. This model was trained on 4035 images and validated on 807 separate images from the ones used for training. The images used to train the classification model include an important feature: the pictures are cropped beforehand to eliminate distractions when training the model. The image segmentation model uses an improved U-Net architecture. This model is used to extract the lung mask from the chest X-ray image. The model is trained on 8577 images and validated on a validation split of 20%. These models are calculated using the external dataset for validation. The models’ accuracy, precision, recall, f1-score, IOU, and loss are calculated. Results The classification model achieved an accuracy of 97.65% and a loss of 0.1234 when differentiating COVID19-infected, pneumonia-infected, and normal lung X-rays. The segmentation model achieved an accuracy of 97.31% and an IOU of 0.928. Conclusion The models proposed can detect COVID-19, pneumonia, and normal lungs with high accuracy and derive the lung mask from a chest X-ray with similarly high accuracy. The hope is for these models to elevate the experience of medical professionals and provide insight into the future of the methods used.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, convolutional neural networks, deep learning, image processing, machine learning

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Authors: C. Rana, S. K. Jain

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The enormous amount of Web data has challenged its usage in efficient manner in the past few years. As such, a range of techniques are applied to tackle this problem; prominent among them is personalization and recommender system. In fact, these are the tools that assist user in finding relevant information of web. Most of the e-commerce websites are applying such tools in one way or the other. In the past decade, a large number of recommendation algorithms have been proposed to tackle such problems. However, there have not been much research in the evaluation criteria for these algorithms. As such, the traditional accuracy and classification metrics are still used for the evaluation purpose that provides a static view. This paper studies how the evolution of user preference over a period of time can be mapped in a recommender system using a new evaluation methodology that explicitly using time dimension. We have also presented different types of experimental set up that are generally used for recommender system evaluation. Furthermore, an overview of major accuracy metrics and metrics that go beyond the scope of accuracy as researched in the past few years is also discussed in detail.

Keywords: collaborative filtering, data mining, evolutionary, clustering, algorithm, recommender systems

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Authors: Huda Algharib, Amal Algharib, Hanan Algharib, Ali Mohammad Alqudah

Abstract:

Image registration is an important topic for many imaging systems and computer vision applications. The standard image registration techniques such as Mutual information/ Normalized mutual information -based methods have a limited performance because they do not consider the spatial information or the relationships between the neighbouring pixels or voxels. In addition, the amount of image noise may significantly affect the registration accuracy. Therefore, this paper proposes an efficient method that explicitly considers the relationships between the adjacent pixels, where the gradient information of the reference and scene images is extracted first, and then the cosine similarity of the extracted gradient information is computed and used to improve the accuracy of the standard normalized mutual information measure. Our experimental results on different data types (i.e. CT, MRI and thermal images) show that the proposed method outperforms a number of image registration techniques in terms of the accuracy.

Keywords: image registration, mutual information, image gradients, image transformations

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Authors: David Tena-Gago, Jose M. Alcaraz Calero, Qi Wang

Abstract:

The evolution and integration of automated vehicles have become more and more tangible in recent years. State-of-the-art technological advances in the field of camera-based Artificial Intelligence (AI) and computer vision greatly favor the performance and reliability of the Advanced Driver Assistance System (ADAS), leading to a greater knowledge of vehicular operation and resembling human behavior. However, the exclusive use of this technology still seems insufficient to control vehicular operation at 100%. To reveal the degree of accuracy of the current camera-based automated driving AI modules, this paper studies the structure and behavior of one of the main solutions in a controlled testing environment. The results obtained clearly outline the lack of reliability when using exclusively the AI model in the perception stage, thereby entailing using additional complementary sensors to improve its safety and performance.

Keywords: accuracy assessment, AI-driven mobility, artificial intelligence, automated vehicles

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Authors: Shiva Kumar, G. S. Vijay, Srinivas Pai P., Shrinivasa Rao B. R.

Abstract:

In the present study RBF neural networks were used for predicting the performance and emission parameters of a biodiesel engine. Engine experiments were carried out in a 4 stroke diesel engine using blends of diesel and Honge methyl ester as the fuel. Performance parameters like BTE, BSEC, Tech and emissions from the engine were measured. These experimental results were used for ANN modeling. RBF center initialization was done by random selection and by using Clustered techniques. Network was trained by using fixed and varying widths for the RBF units. It was observed that RBF results were having a good agreement with the experimental results. Networks trained by using clustering technique gave better results than using random selection of centers in terms of reduced MRE and increased prediction accuracy. The average MRE for the performance parameters was 3.25% with the prediction accuracy of 98% and for emissions it was 10.4% with a prediction accuracy of 80%.

Keywords: radial basis function networks, emissions, performance parameters, fuzzy c means

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Authors: Adeniran K. Ademuwagun, Alastair Allen

Abstract:

The relationship dependence between RSS and distance in an enclosed environment is an important consideration because it is a factor that can influence the reliability of any localization algorithm founded on RSS. Several algorithms effectively reduce the variance of RSS to improve localization or accuracy performance. Our proposed algorithm essentially avoids this pitfall and consequently, its high adaptability in the face of erratic radio signal. Using 3 anchors in close proximity of each other, we are able to establish that RSS can be used as reliable indicator for localization with an acceptable degree of accuracy. Inherent in this concept, is the ability for each prospective anchor to validate (guarantee) the position or the proximity of the other 2 anchors involved in the localization and vice versa. This procedure ensures that the uncertainties of radio signals due to multipath effects in enclosed environments are minimized. A major driver of this idea is the implicit topological relationship among sensors due to raw radio signal strength. The algorithm is an area based algorithm; however, it does not trade accuracy for precision (i.e the size of the returned area).

Keywords: anchor nodes, centroid algorithm, communication graph, radio signal strength

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Authors: Mahdi Bazarganigilani

Abstract:

Aortic enlargement, also known as an aortic aneurysm, can occur when the walls of the aorta become weak. This disease can become deadly if overlooked and undiagnosed. In this paper, a computer-aided diagnosis (CAD) system was introduced to accurately diagnose aortic enlargement from chest x-ray images. An enhanced convolutional neural network (CNN) was employed and then trained by transfer learning by using three different main areas from the original images. The areas included the left lung, heart, and right lung. The accuracy of the system was then evaluated on 1001 samples by using 4-fold cross-validation. A promising accuracy of 90% was achieved in terms of the F-measure indicator. The results showed using different areas from the original image in the training phase of CNN could increase the accuracy of predictions. This encouraged the author to evaluate this method on a larger dataset and even on different CAD systems for further enhancement of this methodology.

Keywords: computer-aided diagnosis systems, aortic enlargement, chest X-ray, image processing, convolutional neural networks

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Authors: Keivan Seyyedi, Leila Esmaeilpour, Seyed Jamal Sadeghi

Abstract:

Investigating the effectiveness of explicit focus on form on the written performance of the EFL learners was the aim of this study. To provide empirical support for this study, sixty male English learners were selected and randomly assigned into two groups of explicit focus on form and meaning focused. Narrative writing was employed for data collection. To measure writing performance, participants were required to narrate a story. They were given 20 minutes to finish the task and were asked to write at least 150 words. The participants’ output was coded then analyzed utilizing Independent t-test for grammatical accuracy and fluency of learners’ performance. Results indicated that learners in explicit focus on form group appear to benefit from error correction and rule explanation as two pedagogical techniques of explicit focus on form with respect to accuracy, but regarding fluency they did not yield any significant differences compared to the participants of meaning-focused group.

Keywords: explicit focus on form, rule explanation, accuracy, fluency

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Authors: Giovanni Masala, Stefania Marica

Abstract:

Forecasting electricity load plays a crucial role regards decision making and planning for economical purposes. Besides, in the light of the recent privatization and deregulation of the power industry, the forecasting of future electricity load turned out to be a very challenging problem. Empirical data about electricity load highlights a clear seasonal behavior (higher load during the winter season), which is partly due to climatic effects. We also emphasize the presence of load periodicity at a weekly basis (electricity load is usually lower on weekends or holidays) and at daily basis (electricity load is clearly influenced by the hour). Finally, a long-term trend may depend on the general economic situation (for example, industrial production affects electricity load). All these features must be captured by the model. The purpose of this paper is then to build an hourly electricity load model. The deterministic component of the model requires non-linear regression and Fourier series while we will investigate the stochastic component through econometrical tools. The calibration of the parameters’ model will be performed by using data coming from the Italian market in a 6 year period (2007- 2012). Then, we will perform a Monte Carlo simulation in order to compare the simulated data respect to the real data (both in-sample and out-of-sample inspection). The reliability of the model will be deduced thanks to standard tests which highlight a good fitting of the simulated values.

Keywords: ARMA-GARCH process, electricity load, fitting tests, Fourier series, Monte Carlo simulation, non-linear regression

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Authors: E. A. Krasikov

Abstract:

Dependence of the materials properties on neutron irradiation intensity (flux) is a key problem while usage data of the accelerated materials irradiation in test reactors for forecasting of their capacity for work in realistic (practical) circumstances of operation. Investigations of the reactor pressure vessel steel radiation degradation dependence on fast neutron fluence (embrittlement kinetics) at low flux reveal the instability in the form of the scatter of the experimental data and wave-like sections of embrittlement kinetics appearance. Disclosure of the steel degradation oscillating is a sign of the steel structure cyclic self-recovery transformation as it take place in self-organization processes. This assumption has received support through the discovery of the similar ‘anomalous’ data in scientific publications and by means of own additional experiments. Data obtained stimulate looking-for ways to management of the structural steel radiation stability (for example, by means of nano - structure modification for radiation defects annihilation intensification) for creation of the intelligent self-recovering material. Expected results: - radiation degradation theory and mechanisms development, - more adequate models of the radiation embrittlement elaboration, - surveillance specimen programs improvement, - methods and facility development for usage data of the accelerated materials irradiation for forecasting of their capacity for work in realistic (practical) circumstances of operation, - search of the ways for creating of the radiation stable self-recovery intelligent materials.

Keywords: degradation, radiation, steel, wave-like kinetics

Procedia PDF Downloads 280