Search results for: forecast of behavior

Authors: Manish Pandey, Gurinderjit Kaur, Meenu Talwar, Sachin Chauhan, Jagbir Gill

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Health-care management systems are a unit of nice connection as a result of the supply a straightforward and fast management of all aspects relating to a patient, not essentially medical. What is more, there are unit additional and additional cases of pathologies during which diagnosing and treatment may be solely allotted by victimization medical imaging techniques. With associate ever-increasing prevalence, medical pictures area unit directly acquired in or regenerate into digital type, for his or her storage additionally as sequent retrieval and process. Data Mining is the process of extracting information from large data sets through using algorithms and Techniques drawn from the field of Statistics, Machine Learning and Data Base Management Systems. Forecasting may be a prediction of what's going to occur within the future, associated it's an unsure method. Owing to the uncertainty, the accuracy of a forecast is as vital because the outcome foretold by foretelling the freelance variables. A forecast management should be wont to establish if the accuracy of the forecast is within satisfactory limits. Fuzzy regression strategies have normally been wont to develop shopper preferences models that correlate the engineering characteristics with shopper preferences relating to a replacement product; the patron preference models offer a platform, wherever by product developers will decide the engineering characteristics so as to satisfy shopper preferences before developing the merchandise. Recent analysis shows that these fuzzy regression strategies area units normally will not to model client preferences. We tend to propose a Testing the strength of Exponential Regression Model over regression toward the mean Model.

Keywords: health-care management systems, fuzzy regression, data mining, forecasting, fuzzy membership function

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Authors: Ratanavadee Takerngsukvatana

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The purposes of this research were to study reading behavior of undergraduate students at Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University. A stratified random sample of 380 participants was collected. A Likert five-scale questionnaire was developed to collect data and to obtain students’ opinions regarding their reading behavior. The findings revealed that the majority of respondents read mainly for academic purpose. They preferred to read magazines. The majority of respondents read an average of 3-7 pages a day. The places to read were home and library. Buying with their own money and borrowing from the library were two main sources of books. The suggested activity to promote is planning the curriculum to suit students’ reading behavior.

Keywords: reading, reading behavior, undergraduate students, Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University

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Authors: Ubonrattan Phophatanachai, Phensri Thongphet, Weerawan Kerdtong

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The purposes of this study were to compare the ethical behavior regarding responsibility and polite manners of nursing students of Boromarajonani College of Nursing, Suratthani, Thailand before and after providing the activity session of ethical behavior development. The samples consisted of 103 sophomores in the academic year 2006. The tools were tested for reliability and content validity. The reliability of the Ethical Behavior Questionnaire measured by Cronbach’s alpha coefficient was 0.94. Data were analyzed using means, standard deviations, and dependent t-test. The findings were as follows: a) after the activity session, the mean scores of ethical behavior regarding responsibility and polite manners of nursing students increased from middle level to high level; b) mean scores of responsibilities and polite manners after the activity session were significantly higher than those before the session (t =28.36, p < .001; t =23.9, p < .001, respectively).

Keywords: development of ethical behavior, nursing students, health, nursing informatics

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Authors: William Anderson, Kyle Kobold, Oleg Yakimenko

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Green microgrids using mostly renewable energy (RE) for generation, are complex systems with inherent nonlinear dynamics. Among a variety of different optimization tools there are only a few ones that adequately consider this complexity. This paper evaluates applicability of two somewhat similar optimization tools tailored for standalone RE microgrids and also assesses a machine learning tool for performance prediction that can enhance the reliability of any chosen optimization tool. It shows that one of these microgrid optimization tools has certain advantages over another and presents a detailed routine of preparing input data to simulate RE microgrid behavior. The paper also shows how neural-network-based predictive modeling can be used to validate and forecast solar power generation based on weather time series data, which improves the overall quality of standalone RE microgrid analysis.

Keywords: microgrid, renewable energy, complex systems, optimization, predictive modeling, neural networks

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Authors: Takuma Yamamoto

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Present study investigated the relationship between elementary school children’s prosocial behavior in classroom and satisfaction with school life (approval and victimization from other children) with considering from the perspective of classroom social goal structures (prosocial and compliance goal structures). Participants were 755 elementary school children (393 boys, 362 girls, mean range= 10-12, 5th grader and 6th grader) who were living in Chugoku District, Japan. They filled up questionnaire which was consisted of Murakami, Nishimura and Sakurai’s (2016) prosocial behavior toward friend scale, Kawamura and Tagami’s (1997) satisfaction in classroom scale and Ohtani, Okada, Nakaya and Ito’s (2016) classroom social goal structures scale. Regression lines that satisfaction in classroom is dependent variable and prosocial behavior is independent variable for each class were drawn. There were two types of classroom which children’s prosocial behavior correlated with satisfaction positively and did not. Then one-way MANOVA was conducted to further describe two types of classroom which prosocial behavior increased satisfaction in classroom (type 1) and prosocial behavior decreased satisfaction (type 2). MANOVA for Prosocial goal structure was significant, type 1 > type 2. There were two key findings from this study. First, MANOVA for prosocial goal structure was significant. Second, high score of prosocial goal structure was not necessary condition for the classroom type which children’s prosocial behavior correlated with satisfaction. The implications from these key findings were: (1) in the low prosocial goal structure classroom, children will not behave prosocially because of their negative expectation for the effect of prosocial behavior, (2) this study can be a contribution for classroom management that teachers need to consider about the negative possibilities of prosocial behavior when they try to increase the amount of children’s positive behavior.

Keywords: elementary school children, classroom social goal structure, satisfaction with school life, prosocial behavior

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Authors: Chang-Liang Shih, Kuei-Min Liao, Ya-Yuan Wang, Wu-Chun Tu

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Forcipomyia taiwana, an important vexing pest, influences the development of the industry of Taiwan tourism and the quality of country life. Using human-attractant method to investigate the blood-sucking behavior of Forcipomyia taiwana in three districts in Taichung, it revealed that female F. taiwana only exhibits blood-sucking behavior in daytime, not in nighttime. The blooding-sucking behavior of female F. taiwana was affected by some factors, i.e., season and atmospheric factors. During 2008 to 2010, our study revealed that blood-sucking behavior commenced from 7:00 to 8:00 in the spring equinox, the summer solstice and the autumnal equinox, but from 8:00 to 9:00 in the winter solstice. However, regardless of any seasons, it revealed that blood-sucking behavior reached the acme between 13:00 and 15:00, and then descending. In those four seasons, the summer solstice had longer lighting and higher temperature, the average sucking activity was around 12 hours, on the contrary, the winter solstice had shorter lighting and lower temperature, the average sucking activity bridled to around 8 hours whilst it retrenched to 11 hours in the spring equinox and the autumnal equinox. To analyze the correlation between blood-sucking behavior and atmospheric factors, it revealed that female blood-sucking behavior was correlated positively to temperature and lighting but negatively to humidity. In addition, our study also showed that there is no blood-sucking behavior under 18ºC.

Keywords: Forcipomyia taiwana, circadian rhythm, blood-sucking behavior, season

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Authors: Satish Kumar Dewangan, Santosh Kumar Senapati

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The present work focuses on the investigation of the effect of non-Newtonian behavior on the oil-water stratified flow in a horizontal channel using ANSYS Fluent. Coupled level set and volume of fluid (CLSVOF) has been used to capture the evolving interface assuming unsteady, coaxial flow with constant fluid properties. The diametric variation of oil volume fraction, mixture velocity, total pressure and pressure gradient has been studied. Non-Newtonian behavior of oil has been represented by the power law model in order to investigate the effect of flow behavior index. Stratified flow pattern tends to assume dispersed flow pattern with the change in the behavior of oil to non-Newtonian. The pressure gradient is found to be very much sensitive to the flow behavior index. The findings could be useful in designing the transportation pipe line in petroleum industries.

Keywords: oil-water stratified flow, horizontal channel, CLSVOF, non–Newtonian behaviour.

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Authors: Oktia Woro Kasmini Handayani, Sri Ratna Rahayu, Efa Nugroho, Berta Kalswahermawati

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Diabetes occurs 10 years faster in the Southeast Asian region than the European region, which occurs in the most productive periods. Cultural differences as well as cultural transitions can be determinant factors of health cases in urban and rural areas. The purpose of this research is to analyze the effect of the cultural environment, behavior and the occurrence of diabetes mellitus in urban areas of Semarang, Indonesia. The research was conducted in the area of Semarang Regency, using a quantitative approach and supported by qualitative data, the population is DM type 2 patients, sample size of 200 people, with a purposive sampling technique. The independent variable consists of cultural environment, behavior, and the dependent variable is DM. The data is analyzed with regression test method. Cultural environment affects behavior positively, with t value of 4,690 and p (sig.) 0.000, this means sig <0.05, while the effect of behavior on Diabetes Mellitus obtained t value 2.950 with p-value (sig.) 0.003 this means that sig <0.05, thus it can be interpreted that the behavior has a significant effect on Diabetes Mellitus. The cultural environment directly affects the incidence of DM. It can also shape a person's behavior or lifestyle or habit, whether healthy or unhealthy one, which in turn causes symptoms of DM.

Keywords: Behavior, Cultural Environment, Diebetes Millitus, Urban

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Authors: Abiodun Musbau Lawal, Sunday Samson Babalola, Uzor Friday Ordu

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Issue of employees counterproductive work behavior in government owned organization in emerging economies has continued to be a major concern. This study investigated the factors of pay satisfaction, intent to leave and age as predictors of counterproductive work behavior among non-academic employee in a Nigerian federal government owned university. A sample of 200 non-academic employees completed questionnaires. Hierarchical multiple regression was conducted to determine the contribution of each of the predictor variables on the criterion variable on counterproductive work behavior. Results indicate that age of participants (β = -.18; p < .05) significantly independently predicted CWB by accounting for 3% of the explained variance. Addition of pay satisfaction (β = -.14; p < .05) significantly accounted for 5% of the explained variance, while intent to leave (β = -.17; p < .05) further resulted in 8% of the explained variance in counterproductive work behavior. The importance of these findings with regards to reduction in counterproductive work behavior is highlighted.

Keywords: counterproductive, work behaviour, pay satisfaction, intent to leave

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Authors: Roien Qiam, Shoshi Mizokami

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Parking demand in the Central Business District (CBD) has enlarged with the increase of the number of private vehicles due to rapid economic growth, lack of an efficient public transport and traffic management system. This has resulted in low mobility, poor accessibility, serious congestion, high rates of traffic accident fatalities and injuries and air pollution, mainly because people have to drive slowly around to find a vacant spot. With parking pricing and enforcement policy, considerable advancement could be found, and on-street parking spaces could be managed efficiently and effectively. To evaluate parking demand and making parking policy, it is required to understand the current parking condition and driver’s behavior, understand how drivers choose their parking type and location as well as their behavior toward finding a vacant parking spot under parking charges and search times. This study illustrates the result from an observational, revealed and stated preference surveys and experiment. Attained data shows that there is a gap between supply and demand in parking and it has maximized. For the modeling of the parking decision, a choice model was constructed based on discrete choice modeling theory and multinomial logit model estimated by using SP survey data; the model represents the choice of an alternative among different alternatives which are priced on-street, off-street, and illegal parking. Individuals choose a parking type based on their preference concerning parking charges, searching times, access times and waiting times. The parking assignment model was obtained directly from behavioral model and is used in parking simulation. The study concludes with an evaluation of parking policy.

Keywords: CBD, parking demand forecast, parking policy, parking choice model

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Authors: W. H. Wan Zakiyatussariroh, A. A. Nasuhar, W. Y. Wan Fairos, Z. A. Nazatul Shahreen

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Forecasting dengue incidence in a population can provide useful information to facilitate the planning of the public health intervention. Many studies on dengue cases in Malaysia were conducted but are limited in modeling the outbreak and forecasting incidence. This article attempts to propose the most appropriate time series model to explain the behavior of dengue incidence in Malaysia for the purpose of forecasting future dengue outbreaks. Several seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models were developed to model Malaysia’s number of dengue incidence on weekly data collected from January 2001 to December 2011. SARIMA (2,1,1)(1,1,1)52 model was found to be the most suitable model for Malaysia’s dengue incidence with the least value of Akaike information criteria (AIC) and Bayesian information criteria (BIC) for in-sample fitting. The models further evaluate out-sample forecast accuracy using four different accuracy measures. The results indicate that SARIMA (2,1,1)(1,1,1)52 performed well for both in-sample fitting and out-sample evaluation.

Keywords: time series modeling, Box-Jenkins, SARIMA, forecasting

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Authors: Mohamed Boualem Salah

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This work involves an experimental study of the behavior of chlef sand under effect of various parameters influencing on shear strength. Because of their distinct nature, sands, silts and clays exhibit completely different behavior (shear strength, the contracting and dilatancy, the angle of internal friction and cohesion etc.). By cons when these materials are mixed, their behavior will become different from each considered alone. The behavior of these mixtures (silty sands etc.) is currently the state of several studies to better use. We studied in this work: The influence of the following factors on the shear strength: (The density, the fines content, the water content). The apparatus used for the tests is the shear box casagrande. This device, although one may have some disadvantages and modern instrumentation is appropriate used to study the shear strength of soils.

Keywords: behavior, shear strength, sand, silt, friction angle, cohesion, fines content, moisture content

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Authors: Arezoo Fallahi

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We aimed at investigating the association between health beliefs and exercise behavior in infertile women who were at risk of developing osteoporosis. This cross-sectional study was conducted in Sanandaj city, west of Iran in 2018. From 35 comprehensive healthcare centers, 483 infertile women were included in the study through convenience sampling. Standardized face-to-face interviews were conducted using established, reliable instruments for the assessment of exercise behavior behavior and health beliefs. Logistic regression models were applied to assess the association between exercise behavior and health beliefs. Estimates were adjusted for age, job status, income, literacy, and duration and type of infertility. We reported estimated logits and Odds Ratios (OR) with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). Employed women compared to housewives had substantially higher odds of adopting exercise behavior behaviors (OR=3.19, 95% CI=1.53-6.66, p<0.01). Moreover, the odds of exercise behavior adoption increased with self-efficacy (OR=1.35, 95% CI=1.20-1.52, p<0.01), and decreased with perceived barriers (OR=0.90, 95% CI=0.84-0.97, p<0.01). It is essential to increase perceived self-efficacy and reduce perceived barriers to promote EB in infertile women. Consequently, health professionals should develop or adopt appropriate strategies to decrease barriers and increase self-efficacy to enhance exercise behavior in this group of women.

Keywords: infertility, women, exercise, osteoporosis

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Authors: Niya Chen, Jennifer Chan

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In the financial market, risk management helps to minimize potential loss and maximize profit. There are two ways to assess risks; the first way is to calculate the risk directly based on the volatility. The most common risk measurements are Value at Risk (VaR), sharp ratio, and beta. Alternatively, we could look at the quantile of the return to assess the risk. Popular return models such as GARCH and stochastic volatility (SV) focus on modeling the mean of the return distribution via capturing the volatility dynamics; however, the quantile/expectile method will give us an idea of the distribution with the extreme return value. It will allow us to forecast VaR using return which is direct information. The advantage of using these non-parametric methods is that it is not bounded by the distribution assumptions from the parametric method. But the difference between them is that expectile uses a second-order loss function while quantile regression uses a first-order loss function. We consider several quantile functions, different volatility measures, and estimates from some volatility models. To estimate the expectile of the model, we use Realized Conditional Autoregressive Expectile (CARE) model with the bayesian method to achieve this. We would like to see if our proposed models outperform existing models in cryptocurrency, and we will test it by using Bitcoin mainly as well as Ethereum.

Keywords: expectile, CARE Model, CARR Model, quantile, cryptocurrency, Value at Risk

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Authors: Arianne Van Der Wal, Femke Van Horen, Amir Grinstein

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Consumers in today’s world are confronted with the alarming consequences of unsustainable behavior such as pollution and resource degradation. In addition, they are facing an increase in uncertainty due to, for instance, economic instability and terror attacks. Although these two problems are central to consumers’ lives, occur on a global scale, and have significant impact on the world’s political, economic, environmental, and social landscapes, they have not been systematically studied in tandem before. Contributing to research on persuasion and pro-social behavior, this paper shows in five studies (three experimental studies and one field study) that the two problems are intertwined. We demonstrate that uncertainty leads to lower sustainable behavior in comparison to certainty (Studies 1 and 2) and that this is due to consumers displaying higher levels of temporal discounting (i.e., adopting a more immediate orientation; Study 2). Finally, providing valuable implications for policy makers and responsible marketers, we show that emphasizing the immediate benefits of sustainable behavior during uncertainty buffers the negative effect (Studies 3 and 4).

Keywords: sustainable behavior, uncertainty, temporal discounting, framing

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Authors: Dawei Xia, Benyan Jiang, Yong Li

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Split-type air conditioners is widely used for indoor temperature regulation in urban residential buildings in summer in China. The energy-related occupant behavior has a great impact on building energy consumption. Obtaining the energy-related occupant behavior data of air conditioners is the research basis for the energy consumption prediction and simulation. Relying on the development of sensing and control technology, this paper selects Zigbee intelligent electronic equipment to monitor the energy-related occupant behavior of 20 households for 3 months in summer. Through analysis of data, it is found that people of different ages in the region have significant difference in the time, duration, frequency, and energy consumption of air conditioners, and form a data model of three basic energy-related occupant behavior patterns to provide an accurate simulation of energy.

Keywords: occupant behavior, Zigbee, split air conditioner, energy simulation

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Authors: Habab Ahmed Hassan Abuzeid

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Organizations are social systems. If one wishes to work in them or to manage them, it is necessary to understand how they operate. Organizations combine science and people–technology and humanity. Unless we have qualified people to design and implement, techniques alone will not produce desirable results. Human behavior in organizations is rather unpredictable. It is unpredictable because it arises from people’s deep-seated needs and value systems. However, it can be partially understood in terms of the framework of behavioral science, management and other disciplines. There is no idealistic solution to organizational problems. All that can be done is to increase our understanding and skills so that human relations at work can be enhanced. In this paper, we consider management of organization behavior utilizing human resources. Study the elements of organization behavior, the effectiveness of mechanism to enhance staff relationships. Many approaches could be applied for healthy organizational environment, it’s highlighted more details in this paper. Organization behavior can raise the employees’ engagement, loyalty and commitment; to accomplish the goal.

Keywords: environment, engagement, human resources, organization behavior

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Authors: Ratri A. Benedictus, Felicia M. Yolanda

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Public transport is a crucial issue for capital city in developing country, such as Jakarta. Inadequate number and low quality of public transport services resulting personal vehicles as the main option. As a result, traffic jams are getting worse in Jakarta. The low quality of public transport, particularly buses, compounded by the risk behavior of the driver. Traffic accidents involving public bus in Jakarta were often the case, even result in fatality. The purpose of this study is to get a description of risk behavior among the public bus drivers in Jakarta. 132 bus drivers become respondent of this study. Risky Driving Behavior scale of Dorn were used. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics. 51.5% of respondents felt often showing risky behavior while on driving. The highest type of risky driving behavior is still using the unsafe bus (62%). Followed by trespass the bus line (30%), over speed (21%), violate the road signs (15%) and driving with unhealthy physical condition (4%). Results of this study suggested that high understanding of the bus drivers on their risk behaviors have not lead to the emergence of safe driving behavior. Therefore, together with technical engineering and instrumentation work intervention over this issue, psychological aspects also need to be considered, such as: risk perception, safety attitude,safety culture, locus of control and Fatalism.

Keywords: bus driver, psychological factors, public transportation, risky driving behavior

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Authors: Teng Zhang, Xuelin Zhang, Shouxiang Lu, Changhai Li

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The existence of animal groups and collective migration are common in nature, and collective behavior is attracting more and more attention of researchers. Previous results have shown that architectural design had an important effect on the process of crowd evacuation. In this paper, collective behavior of mice passing through a middle-exit or corner-exit under panic was investigated. Selfish behavior and herd behavior were easily observed in our video, which caused the congregation with high density near the exit. Triangle structure of congregation formed near the middle-exit while arch structure formed near the corner-exit. It is noteworthy that the exit located at the middle of the wall was more effective for evacuation than at the corner. Meanwhile, the escape sequence of mouse passing through the exit was investigated, and the result showed that the priority depends largely on its location in the congregation. With the level of stimulus increasing, these phenomena still exist. The frequency distributions of time intervals and the burst sizes were also analyzed in this study to explore the secret of collective behavior of mice. These results could provide evidence for the hypothesis or prediction about human behavior in crowd evacuation. However, it is not clear whether the simulated results from different species can correspond to reality or not. Broader comparison among different species about this topic will be eager to be conducted to deepen our understanding of collective behavior in nature.

Keywords: collective behavior, mice, evacuation, exit location

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Authors: Serdar Öge, Pinar Ertürk

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The main objective of this research is to describe the relationship between organizational climate and organizational citizenship behavior. In order to examine this relationship, a research is intended to be carried out in relevant institutions and organizations operating in the health sector in Turkey. It will be found whether there is a statistically significant relationship between organizational climate and organizational citizenship behavior through elated scientific research methods and statistical analysis. In addition, elationships between the dimensions of organizational climate and organizational citizenship behavior subscales will be questioned statistically.

Keywords: organizational climate, organizational citizenship, organizational citizenship behavior, climate

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Authors: Fidel O. Okopi, Aminu Kazeem Ibrahim

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The study investigated psychosocial determinants ‘attitudes and self-esteem’ of school violent behaviors and the efficacy of covert sensitization therapy in combination with systematic approach therapy among male students in Lagos metropolis. Ex-post facto experimental research design was adopted for the study. The samples consisted of 39 school violent behavior students identified through the School Disciplinary Record Books and another 39 non-school violent behavior students identified through randomization. The two groups were from four randomly selected Public Senior Secondary Schools. School Violent Behavior Attitudes Scale (SVBAS) and School Violent Behavior Self-Esteem Scale (SVBSES) were used to collect data for the study. Face and Content validity with the Reliability coefficient of 0.772 for SVBAS and 0.813 for SVBSES were obtained. The results showed that the attitude of school violent behavior students do not significantly differ from that of school non-violent behavior students; the self-esteem of school violent behavior students differs significantly from that of school non-violent behavior students and that Covert Sensitization therapy in combination with Systematic Approach therapy were effective in modifying the self-esteem and attitude of school violent behavior students as surf iced in the pre-test and post-test analysis of school violent behavior students’ responses. The School counselors can modify male school violent behaviors that are traced to attitude and self-esteem with Covert Sensitization therapy in combination with Systematic Approach therapy in metropolitan areas.

Keywords: psychosocial determinants, violent behavior, covert sensitization therapy, systematic approach therapy

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Authors: Chikae Isobe, Toshihiko Souma, Yoshiya Furukawa

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In Japan, an organization is sometimes asked for responsibility and apology toward the organization for the annoying behavior of employees, even though the behavior is not relevant to the organization. Our studies have repeatedly shown that it is important for organizational evaluation to organization propose compensatory behavior for such annoying behavior, even though the behavior is not relevant to the organization. In this study, it was examined how such an organizational response (apology) was likely to evaluate by members of the organization who were not related to the annoying behavior. Three independent variables were manipulated that is organization emotion (guilt and shame), compensation (proposal or not), and the relation between organization and the annoying behavior (relate or not). And the effects of organizational identity (high and low) were also examined. We conducted an online survey for 240 participants through a crowdsourcing company. Participants were asked to imagine a situation in which an incident in which some people in your company did not return an important document that they borrowed privately (vs. at work) became the topic of discussion, and the company responded. For the analysis,189 data (111 males and 78 females, mean age = 40.6) were selected. The results of ANOVA of 2 by2 on organizational appraisal, perceived organizational responsibility, and so on were conducted. Organization appraisal by members was also higher when the organization proposed compensatory behavior. In addition, when the annoying behavior was related to their work (than no related), for those who were high in organization identity (than low), organization appraisal was high. The interaction between relatedness and organizational identity was significant. Differences in relatedness between the organization and annoying behavior were significant in those with low organizational identity but not in those with high organizational identity. When the organization stated not taking compensatory action, members were more likely to perceive the organization as responsible for the annoying behavior. However, the interaction results indicated this tendency was limited to when the annoying behavior was not related to the organization. Furthermore, it tended to be perceived as responsible for the organization when the organization made a statement that felt shame for the annoying behavior not related to the organization and would compensate for the annoying behavior. These results indicate that even members of the organization do not consider the organization's compensatory actions to be unjustified. In addition, because those with high organizational identity perceived the organization to be responsible when it showed strong remorse (shame and compensation), they would be a tendency to make judgments that are consistent with organizational judgments. It would be considered that the Japanese have the norm that even if the organization is not at fault for a member's disruptive behavior, it should respond to it.

Keywords: appraisal for organization, annoying behavior, group shame and guilt, compensation, organizational apologies

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Authors: B. Khorsandi Talab, M. Kordi

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It is highly deplorable that every year, theft behavior among employees of the insurance industry is growing throughout the world. A very significant source of contraction (despite many costly technological and widespread security measures) needs to be addressed and prevented. Employee and agent theft cannot be ignored as it causes significant losses to employers. This study investigates the workplace factors that affect the insurance employee and agent theft behavior. Although identifying theft is difficult, this study will help employers to further understand employees’ theft behavior. This study was conducted in two service small and medium organizations (two branches of insurance companies) in ALBORZ’s capital city, KARAJ. Data has been collected via questionnaire from 30 employees and agents consisting employees and supervisors of branches and agencies. According to the results, it must be acknowledged that compensation, organizational justice, internal control systems, penalties and personal characteristics were associated with employees' theft behavior, it is despite the fact that, no effect could be assumed for organizational ethics and requirement in this case. Nevertheless, poor financial status cannot be considered as the driving factor in pushing employees to steal property as well as increasing their theft behavior. As mentioned earlier, the purpose of this study was to determine the factors contributing to employees’ theft (insurance employees and agencies) behavior in insurance organizations in Karaj.

Keywords: service theft, employee theft behavior, work theft, insurance agency, SMEs

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Authors: Ramin Vafadary, Maryam Khanbaghi

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Forecasting electricity load is important for various purposes like planning, operation, and control. Forecasts can save operating and maintenance costs, increase the reliability of power supply and delivery systems, and correct decisions for future development. This paper compares various time series methods to forecast 24 hours ahead of electricity load. The methods considered are the Holt-Winters smoothing, SARIMA Modeling, LSTM Network, Fbprophet, and Tensorflow probability. The performance of each method is evaluated by using the forecasting accuracy criteria, namely, the mean absolute error and root mean square error. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) residential energy consumption data is used to train the models. The results of this study show that the SARIMA model is superior to the others for 24 hours ahead forecasts. Furthermore, a Bagging technique is used to make the predictions more robust. The obtained results show that by Bagging multiple time-series forecasts, we can improve the robustness of the models for 24 hours ahead of electricity load forecasting.

Keywords: bagging, Fbprophet, Holt-Winters, LSTM, load forecast, SARIMA, TensorFlow probability, time series

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Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi

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This study was designed to find the best stochastic model (using of time series analysis) for annual extreme streamflow (peak and maximum streamflow) of Karkheh River at Iran. The Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model used to simulate these series and forecast those in future. For the analysis, annual extreme streamflow data of Jelogir Majin station (above of Karkheh dam reservoir) for the years 1958–2005 were used. A visual inspection of the time plot gives a little increasing trend; therefore, series is not stationary. The stationarity observed in Auto-Correlation Function (ACF) and Partial Auto-Correlation Function (PACF) plots of annual extreme streamflow was removed using first order differencing (d=1) in order to the development of the ARIMA model. Interestingly, the ARIMA(4,1,1) model developed was found to be most suitable for simulating annual extreme streamflow for Karkheh River. The model was found to be appropriate to forecast ten years of annual extreme streamflow and assist decision makers to establish priorities for water demand. The Statistical Analysis System (SAS) and Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) codes were used to determinate of the best model for this series.

Keywords: stochastic models, ARIMA, extreme streamflow, Karkheh river

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Authors: H. Abchiche, M. Mellal

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The aim of this work is to study the parameters that influence the rheological behavior of a complex fluid (sodium Carboxyméthylcellulose solution), on a capillary rheometer. An installation has been made to be able to vary the diameter of trial conducts. The obtained results allowed us to deduce that: the diameter of trial conducts have a remarkable effect on the rheological responds.

Keywords: bingham’s fluid, CMC, cylindrical conduit, rheological behavior

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Authors: Jeonghwan Jeon, Mintak Han, Youngjun Kim

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Due to the rapid development of information and communication technology (ICT), a substantial transformation is currently happening in the society. As the range of intelligent technologies and services is continuously expanding, ‘things’ are becoming capable of communicating one another and even with people. However, such “Internet of Things” has the technical weakness so that a great amount of such information transferred in real-time may be widely exposed to the threat of security. User’s personal data are a typical example which is faced with a serious security threat. The threats of security will be diversified and arose more frequently because next generation of unfamiliar technology develops. Moreover, as the society is becoming increasingly complex, security vulnerability will be increased as well. In the existing literature, a considerable number of private and public reports that forecast future society have been published as a precedent step of the selection of future technology and the establishment of strategies for competitiveness. Although there are previous studies that forecast security technology, they have focused only on technical issues and overlooked the interrelationships between security technology and social factors are. Therefore, investigations of security threats in the future and security technology that is able to protect people from various threats are required. In response, this study aims to derive potential security threats associated with the development of technology and to explore the security technology that can protect against them. To do this, first of all, private and public reports that forecast future and online documents from technology-related communities are collected. By analyzing the data, future issues are extracted and categorized in terms of STEEP (Society, Technology, Economy, Environment, and Politics), as well as security. Second, the components of potential security threats are developed based on classified future issues. Then, points that the security threats may occur –for example, mobile payment system based on a finger scan technology– are identified. Lastly, alternatives that prevent potential security threats are proposed by matching security threats with points and investigating related security technologies from patent data. Proposed approach can identify the ICT-related latent security menaces and provide the guidelines in the ‘problem – alternative’ form by linking the threat point with security technologies.

Keywords: future society, information and communication technology, security technology, technology forecasting

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Authors: H. M. Mobarak, Helen Wu, Keqin Xiao

Abstract:

In this work, a three-dimensional finite element model was developed to investigate the crack breathing behavior at different crack locations considering the effect of unbalance force. A two-disk rotor with a crack is simulated using ABAQUS. The duration of each crack status (open, closed and partially open/closed) during a full shaft rotation was examined to analyse the crack breathing behavior. Unbalanced shaft crack breathing behavior was found to be different at different crack locations. The breathing behavior of crack along the shaft length is divided into different regions depending on the unbalance force and crack location. The simulated results in this work can be further utilised to obtain the time-varying stiffness matrix of the cracked shaft element under the influence of unbalance force.

Keywords: crack breathing, crack location, slant crack, unbalance force, rotating shaft

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Authors: Rose J. Thazhathukunnel, A. G. Smitha

Abstract:

In the wake of social development, humans overlook the ideal physical appearance, and there is an increasing trend of criticising other’s bodies or offering tips to hide imperfections. Social appearance anxiety demonstrates the association with body dissatisfaction and disordered eating behavior. In this study, we examined the hypothesis that social appearance anxiety, body dissatisfaction, and disordered eating behavior would predict the relation between each among cancer survivors. It was observed that implicit belief to be thin was more pronounced in people with low body dissatisfaction than those with high body dissatisfaction. Results of the study indicated that overall body dissatisfaction and social appearance anxiety were correlated with disordered eating behavior for both men and women cancer survivors of all ages.

Keywords: social appearance anxiety, body dissatisfaction, disordered eating behavior, cancer survivors

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Authors: S. Henine, A. Youkana

Abstract:

This work is devoted to study the global existence and asymptotic behavior of solutions for Gierer-Meinhardt systems arising in biological phenomena. We prove that the solutions are global and uniformly bounded by a positive constant independent of the time. Our technique is based on Lyapunov functional argument. Under suitable conditions, we established a result on the asymptotic behavior of solutions. These results are valid for any positive continuous initial data, and improve some recently results established.

Keywords: asymptotic behavior, Gierer-Meinhardt systems, global existence, Lyapunov functional

Procedia PDF Downloads 358