Search results for: fixed effect dummy variable model

Authors: Miriam Sosa, Edgar Ortiz, Alejandra Cabello

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This paper examines the volatility changes and leverage effects of the MILA stock markets and their changes since the 2007 global financial crisis. This group integrates the stock markets from Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru. Volatility changes and leverage effects are tested with a symmetric GARCH (1,1) and asymmetric TARCH (1,1) models with a dummy variable in the variance equation. Daily closing prices of the stock indexes of Chile (IPSA), Colombia (COLCAP), Mexico (IPC) and Peru (IGBVL) are examined for the period 2003:01 to 2015:02. The evidence confirms the presence of an overall increase in asymmetric market volatility in the Peruvian share market since the 2007 crisis.

Keywords: financial crisis, Latin American Integrated Market, TARCH, GARCH

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Authors: Abhishek Ranga

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The study examined the effect of accounting choice and level of disclosure on the firm’s implied cost of equity in Indian environment. For the study accounting choice was classified as aggressive or conservative depending upon the firm’s choice of accounting methods, accounting policies and accounting estimates. Level of disclosure is the quantum of financial and non-financial information disclosed in firm’s annual report, essentially in note to accounts section, schedules forming part of financial statements and Management Discussion and Analysis report. Regression models were developed with cost of equity as a dependent variable and accounting choice, level of disclosure as an independent variable along with selected control variables. Cost of equity was measured using Edward-Bell-Ohlson (EBO) valuation model, to measure accounting choice Modified-Jones-Model (MJM) was used and level of disclosure was measured using a disclosure index essentially drawn from Botosan study. Results indicated a negative association between the implied cost of equity and conservative accounting choice and also between level of disclosure and cost of equity.

Keywords: aggressive accounting choice, conservative accounting choice, disclosure, implied cost of equity

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Authors: Rachid Belhachemi, Pierre Rostan, Alexandra Rostan

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This paper develops a discrete-time option pricing model for index options. The model consists of two key ingredients. First, daily stock return innovations are driven by a continuous hidden threshold mixed skew-normal (HTSN) distribution which generates conditional non-normality that is needed to fit daily index return. The most important feature of the HTSN is the inclusion of a latent state variable with a continuum of states, unlike the traditional mixture distributions where the state variable is discrete with little number of states. The HTSN distribution belongs to the class of univariate probability distributions where parameters of the distribution capture the dependence between the variable of interest and the continuous latent state variable (the regime). The distribution has an interpretation in terms of a mixture distribution with time-varying mixing probabilities. It has been shown empirically that this distribution outperforms its main competitor, the mixed normal (MN) distribution, in terms of capturing the stylized facts known for stock returns, namely, volatility clustering, leverage effect, skewness, kurtosis and regime dependence. Second, heteroscedasticity in the model is captured by a threeexogenous-factor GARCH model (GARCHX), where the factors are taken from the principal components analysis of various world indices and presents an application to option pricing. The factors of the GARCHX model are extracted from a matrix of world indices applying principal component analysis (PCA). The empirically determined factors are uncorrelated and represent truly different common components driving the returns. Both factors and the eight parameters inherent to the HTSN distribution aim at capturing the impact of the state of the economy on price levels since distribution parameters have economic interpretations in terms of conditional volatilities and correlations of the returns with the hidden continuous state. The PCA identifies statistically independent factors affecting the random evolution of a given pool of assets -in our paper a pool of international stock indices- and sorting them by order of relative importance. The PCA computes a historical cross asset covariance matrix and identifies principal components representing independent factors. In our paper, factors are used to calibrate the HTSN-GARCHX model and are ultimately responsible for the nature of the distribution of random variables being generated. We benchmark our model to the MN-GARCHX model following the same PCA methodology and the standard Black-Scholes model. We show that our model outperforms the benchmark in terms of RMSE in dollar losses for put and call options, which in turn outperforms the analytical Black-Scholes by capturing the stylized facts known for index returns, namely, volatility clustering, leverage effect, skewness, kurtosis and regime dependence.

Keywords: continuous hidden threshold, factor models, GARCHX models, option pricing, risk-premium

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Authors: M. Y. Ismail, Arslan Kiyani

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Narrow bandwidth and high loss performance limits the use of reflectarray antennas in some applications. This article reports on the feasibility of employing strategic reflectarray resonant elements to characterize the reflectivity performance of reflectarrays in X-band frequency range. Strategic reflectarray resonant elements incorporating variable substrate thicknesses ranging from 0.016λ to 0.052λ have been analyzed in terms of reflection loss and reflection phase performance. The effect of substrate thickness has been validated by using waveguide scattering parameter technique. It has been demonstrated that as the substrate thickness is increased from 0.508mm to 1.57mm the measured reflection loss of dipole element decreased from 5.66dB to 3.70dB with increment in 10% bandwidth of 39MHz to 64MHz. Similarly the measured reflection loss of triangular loop element is decreased from 20.25dB to 7.02dB with an increment in 10% bandwidth of 12MHz to 23MHz. The results also show a significant decrease in the slope of reflection phase curve as well. A Figure of Merit (FoM) has also been defined for the comparison of static phase range of resonant elements under consideration. Moreover, a novel numerical model based on analytical equations has been established incorporating the material properties of dielectric substrate and electrical properties of different reflectarray resonant elements to obtain the progressive phase distribution for each individual reflectarray resonant element.

Keywords: numerical model, reflectarray resonant elements, scattering parameter measurements, variable substrate thickness

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Authors: El Amine Nebbat

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A void is a dust-free region in dusty plasma, a medium formed of electrons, ions, and charged dust (grain). This structure appears in multiple experimental works. Several researchers have developed models to understand it. Recently, Nebbat and Annou proposed a nonlinear model that describes the void in non-viscos plasma, where the particles of the dusty plasma are treated as a fluid. In fact, the void appears even in dense dusty plasma where viscosity exists through the strong interaction between grains, so in this work, we augment the nonlinear model of Nebbat and Annou by introducing viscosity into the fluid equations. The analysis of the data of the numerical resolution confirms the important effect of this parameter (viscosity). The study revealed that the viscosity increases the dimension of the void for certain dimensions of the grains, and its effect on the value of the density of the grains at the boundary of the void is inversely proportional to their radii, i.e., this density increase for submicron grains and decrease for others. Finally, this parameter reduces the rings of dust density which surround the void.

Keywords: voids, dusty plasmas, variable charge, density, viscosity

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Authors: Tzu-Jung Huang, Hsun-Jung Cho, Chien-Chia Liäm Huang

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To improve the level of service (LoS) of urban arterial systems containing a series of signalized intersections, a proper design of offsets for all intersections associated is of great importance. The MAXBAND model has been the most common approach for this purpose. In this paper, we propose a MAXBAND model with phase constraints so that the lengths of the phases in a cycle are variable. In other words, the length of a cycle is also variable in our setting. We conduct experiments on a real-world traffic network, having several major paths, in Taiwan for numerical evaluations. Actual traffic data were collected through on-site experiments. Numerical evidences suggest that the improvements are around 32%, on average, in terms of total delay of the entire network.

Keywords: arterial progression, MAXBAND, signal control, offset

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Authors: Hend Mesbah, Yehia Youssef, Ibrahim Hassan, Shaaban Nosier, Ahmed El-Shazly, Ahmed Helal

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The problem of drinking water shortage is becoming more crucial nowadays as a result of the increased demand due to the population growth and the rise in the standard living. In recent years, desalination using electrodialysis powered by solar energy (PV-ED) is being widely used to help provide treated water and reduce the scarcity in water supply. In the present study, a water desalination laboratory scale ED cell with a fixed bed circulation system was designed, developed, and tested. The effect of three parameters (namely, cell voltage , flowrate, and salt concentration) on the removal percentage of salt ions was studied. The cell voltage was adjusted at 3 , 4 and 6 V. A flow rate of 5, 10, and 20 ml/s and an initial salt concentration of 2000, 5000, and 7000 ppm were investigated. The maximum salt percentage removal obtained was 52.5% at the lowest initial concentration (2000 ppm) and at the highest cell voltage (6 V). There was no significant effect of the flow rate on the removal percentage. A model of PV module has also been developed to calculate the dimensions of a solar cell based on the amount of energy consumed and it was calculated from the Overall ED cell voltage.

Keywords: desalination, electrodialysis, solar desalination, photovoltaic electrodialysis

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Authors: Hui-Min Lai, Chin-Pin Chen, Yung-Fu Chang

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The expectation-confirmation model (ECM) is one of the most widely used models for evaluating information system continuance, and this model has been extended to other study backgrounds, or expanded with other theoretical perspectives. However, combining ECM with other theories or investigating the background problem may produce some disparities, thus generating inaccurate conclusions. Habit is considered to be an important factor that influences the user’s continuance behavior. This paper thus critically examines seven pairs of relationships from the original ECM and the habit variable. A meta-analysis was used to tackle the development of ECM research over the last 10 years from a range of journals and conference papers published in 2005–2014. Forty-six journal articles and 19 conference papers were selected for analysis. The results confirm our prediction that a high effect size for the seven pairs of relationships was obtained (ranging from r=0.386 to r=0.588). Furthermore, a meta-analytic structural equation modeling was performed to simultaneously test all relationships. The results show that habit had a significant positive effect on continuance intention at p<=0.05 and that the six other pairs of relationships were significant at p<0.10. Based on the findings, we refined our original research model and an alternative model was proposed for understanding and predicting information system continuance. Some theoretical implications are also discussed.

Keywords: Expectation-confirmation theory, Expectation-confirmation model, Meta-analysis, meta-analytic structural equation modeling.

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Authors: Alma Lucero Ortiz, Mario Gómez

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The purpose of this article is to conduct a theoretical and empirical study in order to analyze how the Supply Chain Management (SCM) and Supply Chain Responsiveness (SCR) affects the competitive advantage of the agrofood sector in 2017, in particular, the exporting companies of berries in Mexico. This work is presented in two parts, as a first part is developed a theoretical analysis of the main studies to measure the variables subject to the study. Subsequently an empirical study is carried out through field work and to process the data a logical econometric model is performed to be able to evaluate the effect of the SCM and SCR on the competitive advantage in the companies exporting berries. The results suggest that the SCM has a positive effect on the competitive advantage of the companies under study, so it is necessary to implement greater practices oriented towards a suitable SCM for the companies to achieve a competitive performance. In the case of SCR, it was found that this variable does not have effect on competitive advantage.

Keywords: competitive advantage, econometric model, supply chain management, supply chain responsiveness, sustained competitive advantage

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Authors: Georgiana Onicescu, Yuqian Shen

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Due to the complex nature of geo-referenced data, multicollinearity of the risk factors in public health spatial studies is a commonly encountered issue, which leads to low parameter estimation accuracy because it inflates the variance in the regression analysis. To address this issue, we proposed a two-stage variable selection method by extending the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) to the Bayesian spatial setting, investigating the impact of risk factors to health outcomes. Specifically, in stage I, we performed the variable selection using Bayesian Lasso and several other variable selection approaches. Then, in stage II, we performed the model selection with only the selected variables from stage I and compared again the methods. To evaluate the performance of the two-stage variable selection methods, we conducted a simulation study with different distributions for the risk factors, using geo-referenced count data as the outcome and Michigan as the research region. We considered the cases when all candidate risk factors are independently normally distributed, or follow a multivariate normal distribution with different correlation levels. Two other Bayesian variable selection methods, Binary indicator, and the combination of Binary indicator and Lasso were considered and compared as alternative methods. The simulation results indicated that the proposed two-stage Bayesian Lasso variable selection method has the best performance for both independent and dependent cases considered. When compared with the one-stage approach, and the other two alternative methods, the two-stage Bayesian Lasso approach provides the highest estimation accuracy in all scenarios considered.

Keywords: Lasso, Bayesian analysis, spatial analysis, variable selection

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Authors: Mamadou Dione, Eric Matzner-lober, Philippe Alexandre

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The Energy Transition Act defined by the French State has precise implications on Renewable Energies, in particular on its remuneration mechanism. Until then, a purchase obligation contract permitted the sale of wind-generated electricity at a fixed rate. Tomorrow, it will be necessary to sell this electricity on the Market (at variable rates) before obtaining additional compensation intended to reduce the risk. This sale on the market requires to announce in advance (about 48 hours before) the production that will be delivered on the network, so to be able to predict (in the short term) this production. The fundamental problem remains the variability of the Wind accentuated by the geographical situation. The objective of the project is to provide, every day, short-term forecasts (48-hour horizon) of wind production using weather data. The predictions of the GFS model and those of the ECMWF model are used as explanatory variables. The variable to be predicted is the production of a wind farm. We do two approaches: a direct approach that predicts wind generation directly from weather data, and an integrated approach that estimâtes wind from weather data and converts it into wind power by power curves. We used machine learning techniques to predict this production. The models tested are random forests, CART + Bagging, CART + Boosting, SVM (Support Vector Machine). The application is made on a wind farm of 22MW (11 wind turbines) of the Compagnie du Vent (that became Engie Green France). Our results are very conclusive compared to the literature.

Keywords: forecast aggregation, machine learning, spatio-temporal dynamics modeling, wind power forcast

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Authors: Jonardan Koner, Basabi Bhattacharya, Avinash Purandare

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The study is focused to find out the impact of infrastructural investment on economic development in Indian states. The study uses panel data analysis to measure the impact of infrastructural investment on Real Gross Domestic Product in Indian States. Panel data analysis incorporates Unit Root Test, Cointegration Teat, Pooled Ordinary Least Squares, Fixed Effect Approach, Random Effect Approach, Hausman Test. The study analyzes panel data (annual in frequency) ranging from 1991 to 2012 and concludes that infrastructural investment has a desirable impact on economic development in Indian. Finally, the study reveals that the infrastructural investment significantly explains the variation of economic indicator.

Keywords: infrastructural investment, real GDP, unit root test, cointegration teat, pooled ordinary least squares, fixed effect approach, random effect approach, Hausman test

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Authors: Bougema Theodore Ntenkeh, Chi-bikom Barbara Kyien

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The reduction of poverty and hunger sits at the heart of the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, and are the first two of the Sustainable Development Goals. The World Food Day celebrated on the 16th of October every year, highlights the need for people to have physical and economic access at all times to enough nutritious and safe food to live a healthy and active life; while the world poverty day celebrated on the 17th of October is an opportunity to acknowledge the struggle of people living in poverty, a chance for them to make their concerns heard, and for the community to recognize and support poor people in their fight against poverty. The association between household food security and poverty reduction is not only sparse in Cameroon but mostly qualitative. The paper therefore investigates the effect of household food security on poverty reduction in Cameroon quantitatively using data from the Cameroon Household Consumption Survey collected by the Government Statistics Office. The methodology employed five indicators of household food security using the Multiple Correspondence Analysis and poverty is captured as a dummy variable. Using a control function technique, with pre and post estimation test for robustness, the study postulates that household food security has a positive and significant effect on poverty reduction in Cameroon. A unit increase in the food security score reduces the probability of the household being poor by 31.8%, and this effect is statistically significant at 1%. The result further illustrates that the age of the household head and household size increases household poverty while households residing in urban areas are significantly less poor. The paper therefore recommends that households should diversify their food intake to enhance an effective supply of labour in the job market as a strategy to reduce household poverty. Furthermore, family planning methods should be encouraged as a strategy to reduce birth rate for an equitable distribution of household resources including food while the government of Cameroon should also develop the rural areas given that trend in urbanization are associated with the concentration of productive economic activities, leading to increase household income, increased household food security and poverty reduction.

Keywords: food security, poverty reduction, SDGs, Cameroon

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Authors: M. Khouil, N. Saber, M. Mestari

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In this paper, a different architecture of a collision detection neural network (DCNN) is developed. This network, which has been particularly reviewed, has enabled us to solve with a new approach the problem of collision detection between two convex polyhedra in a fixed time (O (1) time). We used two types of neurons, linear and threshold logic, which simplified the actual implementation of all the networks proposed. The study of the collision detection is divided into two sections, the collision between a point and a polyhedron and then the collision between two convex polyhedra. The aim of this research is to determine through the AMAXNET network a mini maximum point in a fixed time, which allows us to detect the presence of a potential collision.

Keywords: collision identification, fixed time, convex polyhedra, neural network, AMAXNET

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Authors: Omar Eldenali, Ahmed M. Bufares

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There are primarily two types of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAVs), namely, multirotor and fixed wing. Each type has its own advantages. This study introduces a design of a fixed wing vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) UAV. The design is classified as ready-to-fly (RTF) fixed wing UAV. This means that the UAV is capable of not only taking off, landing, or hovering like a multirotor aircraft but also cruising like a fixed wing UAV. In this study, the conceptual design of 15 kg takeoff weight twin-tail boom configuration FW-VTOL plane is carried out, the initial sizing of the plane is conducted, and both the horizontal and vertical tail configurations are estimated. Moreover, the power required for each stage of flight is determined. Finally, the stability analysis of the plane based on this design is performed, the results shows that this design based on the suggested flight mission is stable and can be utilized.

Keywords: FW-VTOL, initial sizing, constrain analysis, stability

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Authors: Husnil Khatimah, Fairol Halim

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This research examines the moderating impact of security on intention to use e-money that adapted from some variables of the TAM (Technology Acceptance Model) and TPB (Theory of Planned Behavior). This study will use security as moderating variable and finds these relationship depends on customer intention to use e-money as payment tools. The conceptual framework of e-money transactions was reviewed to understand behavioral intention of consumers from perceived usefulness, perceived ease of use, perceived behavioral control and security. Quantitative method will be utilized as sources of data collection. A total of one thousand respondents will be selected using quota sampling method in Medan, Indonesia. Descriptive analysis and Multiple Regression analysis will be conducted to analyze the data. The article ended with suggestion for future studies.

Keywords: e-money transaction, TAM & TPB, moderating variable, behavioral intention, conceptual paper

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Authors: Pan Hongxia, Wang Zhenhua

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In this paper, the EMD decomposition in the process of endpoint effect adopted data based on AR model to predict the continuation and window function method of combining the two effective inhibition. Proven by simulation of the simulation signal obtained the ideal effect, then, apply this method to the gearbox test data is also achieved good effect in the process, for the analysis of the subsequent data processing to improve the calculation accuracy. In the end, under various working conditions for the gearbox fault diagnosis laid a good foundation.

Keywords: gearbox, fault diagnosis, ar model, end effect

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Authors: Zhang Kehan, Du Luona

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Wireless power transfer (WPT) systems have been widely investigated for advantages of convenience and safety compared to traditional plug-in charging systems. The research contents include impedance matching, circuit topology, transfer distance et al. for improving the efficiency of WPT system, which is a decisive factor in the practical application. What is more, coil structures such as spiral circular coil and helical coil with variable distance between two turns also have indispensable effects on the efficiency of WPT systems. This paper compares the efficiency of WPT systems utilizing spiral or helical coil with variable distance between two turns, and experimental results show that efficiency of spiral circular coil with an optimum distance between two turns is the highest. According to efficiency formula of resonant WPT system with series-series topology, we introduce M²/R₋₁ to measure the efficiency of spiral circular coil and helical coil WPT system. If the distance between two turns s is too close, proximity effect theory shows that the induced current in the conductor, caused by a variable flux created by the current flows in the skin of vicinity conductor, is the opposite direction of source current and has assignable impart on coil resistance. Thus in two coil structures, s affects coil resistance. At the same time, when the distance between primary and secondary coils is not variable, s can also make the influence on M to some degrees. The aforementioned study proves that s plays an indispensable role in changing M²/R₋₁ and then can be adjusted to find the optimum value with which WPT system achieves the highest efficiency. In actual application situations of WPT systems especially in underwater vehicles, miniaturization is one vital issue in designing WPT system structures. Limited by system size, the largest external radius of spiral circular coil is 100 mm, and the largest height of helical coil is 40 mm. In other words, the turn of coil N changes with s. In spiral circular and helical structures, the distance between each two turns in secondary coil is set as a constant value 1 mm to guarantee that the R2 is not variable. Based on the analysis above, we set up spiral circular coil and helical coil model using COMSOL to analyze the value of M²/R₋₁ when the distance between each two turns in primary coil sp varies from 0 mm to 10 mm. In the two structure models, the distance between primary and secondary coils is 50 mm and wire diameter is chosen as 1.5 mm. The turn of coil in secondary coil are 27 in helical coil model and 20 in spiral circular coil model. The best value of s in helical coil structure and spiral circular coil structure are 1 mm and 2 mm respectively, in which the value of M²/R₋₁ is the largest. It is obviously to select spiral circular coil as the first choice to design the WPT system for that the value of M²/R₋₁ in spiral circular coil is larger than that in helical coil under the same condition.

Keywords: distance between two turns, helical coil, spiral circular coil, wireless power transfer

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Authors: Vidishaa Jali, Amit Sinha, Kameshwar Prasad

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Background and Objective: Cerebral microbleeds are frequently found in healthy elderly individuals. We performed a meta- analysis to determine the prevalence of cerebral microbleeds in apparently healthy, elderly population and to determine the effect of age, smoking and hypertension on the occurrence of cerebral microbleeds. Methods: Relevant literature was searched using electronic databases such as MEDLINE, EMBASE, PubMed, Cochrane database, Google scholar to identify studies on the prevalence of cerebral microbleeds in general elderly population till March 2016. STATA version 13 software was used for analysis. Fixed effect model was used if heterogeneity was less than 50%. Otherwise, random effect model was used. Meta- regression analysis was performed to check any effect of important variables such as age, smoking, hypertension. Selection Criteria: We included cross-sectional studies performed in apparently healthy elderly population, who had age more than 50 years. Results: The pooled proportion of cerebral microbleeds in healthy population is 12% (95% CI, 0.11 to 0.13). No significant effect of age was found on the prevalence of cerebral microbleeds (p= 0.99). A linear relationship between increase in hypertension and the prevalence of cerebral microbleeds was found, however, this linear relationship was not statistically significant (p=0.16). Similarly, A linear relationship between increase in smoking and the prevalence of cerebral microbleeds was found, however, this linear relationship was also not statistically significant (p=0.21). Conclusion: Presence of cerebral microbleeds is evident in apparently healthy, elderly population, in more than 10% of individuals.

Keywords: apparently healthy, elderly, prevalence, cerebral microbleeds

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Authors: Carl van Walraven, Meltem Tuna

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Background: Network meta-analysis (NMA) quantifies the relative efficacy of 3 or more interventions from studies containing a subgroup of interventions. This study applied the analytical approach of NMA to quantify the relative accuracy of prediction models with distinct inclusion criteria that are evaluated on a common population (‘concurrent external validation’). Methods: We simulated binary events in 5000 patients using a known risk function. We biased the risk function and modified its precision by pre-specified amounts to create 15 prediction models with varying accuracy and distinct patient applicability. Prediction model accuracy was measured using the Scaled Brier Score (SBS). Overall prediction model accuracy was measured using fixed-effects methods that accounted for model applicability patterns. Prediction model accuracy was summarized as the Network Relative Model Accuracy (NeRMA) Score which ranges from -∞ through 0 (accuracy of random guessing) to 1 (accuracy of most accurate model in concurrent external validation). Results: The unbiased prediction model had the highest SBS. The NeRMA score correctly ranked all simulated prediction models by the extent of bias from the known risk function. A SAS macro and R-function was created to implement the NeRMA Score. Conclusions: The NeRMA Score makes it possible to quantify the accuracy of binomial prediction models having distinct inclusion criteria in a concurrent external validation.

Keywords: prediction model accuracy, scaled brier score, fixed effects methods, concurrent external validation

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Authors: Christina Tay

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This paper investigates the impact of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) on bilateral trade in goods. Empirical analysis is performed on the United States and 34 partnering countries from 2000 to 2013. Our econometric model fits the data well, explaining 52% of the variation in trade flows for goods trade, 53.2% of the variation in trade flows for goods export and 48% of the variation in trade flows for goods import. For every 10% increase in fixed broadband Internet subscribers per 100 people increases, goods trade by 7.9% and for every 5% increase in fixed broadband Internet subscribers per 100 people, goods export increases by 11%. For every 1% increase in fixed telephone line penetration per 100 people, goods trade increases by 26.3%, goods export increases by 24.4% and goods import increases by 24.8%. For every 1% increase in mobile-cellular telephone subscriptions, goods trade decreases by 29.6% and goods export decreases by 27.1%, whilst for every 0.01% increase in mobile-cellular telephone subscriptions, goods import decreases by 34.3%. For every 1% increase in the percentage of population who used the Internet from any location in the last 12 months Internet, goods trade increases by 32.5%, goods export increases by 38.9%, goods import increases by 33%. All our trade determinants as well as our ICT variables have significances on goods exports for the US. We can also draw from our study that the US relies more rather heavily on ICT for its goods export compared to goods import.

Keywords: bilateral trade, fixed broadband, fixed telephone, goods trade, information and communicative technologies, Internet, mobile-cellular phone

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Authors: Mojtaba Aghamiri Esfahani, Mohammad Karkon, Seyed Majid Hosseini Nezhad, Reza Hosseini-Ara

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In this study, the effect of uncertainty in elastic modulus of a plate on free vibration response is investigated. For this purpose, the elastic modulus of the plate is modeled as stochastic variable with normal distribution. Moreover, the distance autocorrelation function is used for stochastic field. Then, by applying the finite element method and Monte Carlo simulation, stochastic finite element relations are extracted. Finally, with a numerical test, the effect of uncertainty in the elastic modulus on free vibration response of a plate is studied. The results show that the effect of uncertainty in elastic modulus of the plate cannot play an important role on the free vibration response.

Keywords: stochastic finite elements, plate bending, free vibration, Monte Carlo, Neumann expansion method.

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Authors: Alma Sobrevilla

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Using panel data from Mexico, this paper studies the determinants of women’s intrahousehold decision-making power using a generalised ordered logit model. Fixed effects estimations are also carried out to solve potential endogeneity coming from unobservable time-invariant factors. Finally, the paper analyses quadratic and community divergence effects of education on power. Results show heterogeneity in the effect of each of the determinants across different levels of decision-making power and suggest the presence of a significant quadratic effect of education. Having more education than the community average has a negative effect on power, supporting the notion that women tend to compensate their success outside the household with submissive attitudes at home.

Keywords: women, decision-making power, intrahousehold, Mexico

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Authors: Gülçin Tekin, Fethi Kadıoğlu

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In this study, the dynamic analysis of viscoelastic plates with variable thickness is examined. The solutions of dynamic response of viscoelastic thin plates with variable thickness have been obtained by using the functional analysis method in the conjunction with the Gâteaux differential. The four-node serendipity element with four degrees of freedom such as deflection, bending, and twisting moments at each node is used. Additionally, boundary condition terms are included in the functional by using a systematic way. In viscoelastic modeling, Three-parameter Kelvin solid model is employed. The solutions obtained in the Laplace-Carson domain are transformed to the real time domain by using MDOP, Dubner & Abate, and Durbin inverse transform techniques. To test the performance of the proposed mixed finite element formulation, numerical examples are treated.

Keywords: dynamic analysis, inverse laplace transform techniques, mixed finite element formulation, viscoelastic plate with variable thickness

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Authors: Elvis Adam Alhassan, Kaiyu Tian, Akos Konadu, Ernest Zamanah, Michael Jackson Adjabui, Ibrahim Justice Musah, Esther Agyeiwaa Owusu, Emmanuel K. A. Agyeman

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In this paper, how to solve simultaneous equations using the Elvis improved method is shown. The Elvis improved method says; to make one variable in the first equation the subject; make the same variable in the second equation the subject; equate the results and simplify to obtain the value of the unknown variable; put the value of the variable found into one equation from the first or second steps and simplify for the remaining unknown variable. The difference between our Elvis improved method and the substitution method is that: with Elvis improved method, the same variable is made the subject in both equations, and the two resulting equations equated, unlike the substitution method where one variable is made the subject of only one equation and substituted into the other equation. After describing the Elvis improved method, findings from 100 secondary students and the views of 5 secondary tutors to demonstrate the effectiveness of the method are presented. The study's purpose is proved by hypothetical examples.

Keywords: simultaneous equations, substitution method, elimination method, graphical method, Elvis improved method

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Authors: Syed Asif Ali Naqvi, Muhammad Azeem Tufail

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Inadequate sanitation causes direct costs of treating illnesses and loss of income through reduced productivity. This study estimated the economic cost of health (ECH) due to poor sanitation and factors determining the lack of access to latrine for the rural, backward hamlets and slums of district Faisalabad, Pakistan. Cross sectional data were collected and analyzed for the study. As the population under study was homogenous in nature, it is why a simple random sampling technique was used for the collection of data. Data of 440 households from 4 tehsils were gathered. The ordinary least square (OLS) model was used for health cost analysis, and the Probit regression model was employed for determining the factors responsible for inaccess to toilets. The results of the study showed that condition of toilets, situation of sewerage system, access to adequate sanitation, Cholera, diarrhea and dysentery, Water and Sanitation Agency (WASA) maintenance, source of medical treatment can plausibly have a significant connection with the dependent variable. Outcomes of the second model showed that the variables of education, family system, age, and type of dwelling have positive and significant sway with the dependent variable. Variable of age depicted an insignificant association with access to toilets. Variable of monetary expenses would negatively influence the dependent variable. Findings revealed the fact, health risks are often exacerbated by inadequate sanitation, and ultimately, the cost on health also surges. Public and community toilets for youths and social campaigning are suggested for public policy.

Keywords: sanitation, toilet, economic cost of health, water, Punjab

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Authors: S. K. Ashiquer Rahman

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Recently, oil has become more influential in almost every economic sector as a key material. As can be seen from the news, when there are some changes in an oil price or OPEC announces a new strategy, its effect spreads to every part of the economy directly and indirectly. That’s a reason why people always observe the oil price and try to forecast the changes of it. The most important factor affecting the price is its supply which is determined by the number of wildcats drilled. Therefore, a study about the number of wellheads and other economic variables may give us some understanding of the mechanism indicated by the amount of oil supplies. In this paper, we will consider a relationship between the number of wellheads and three key factors: the price of the wellhead, domestic output, and GNP constant dollars. We also add trend variables in the models because the consumption of oil varies from time to time. Moreover, this paper will use an econometrics method to estimate parameters in the model, apply some tests to verify the result we acquire, and then conclude the model.

Keywords: price, domestic output, GNP, trend variable, wildcat activity

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Authors: Tamrat Tesfaye, Tilahun Seyoum, K. Shabaridharan

Abstract:

The objective of this paper was to determine the effect of NaOH concentration, soaking time, soaking temperature and their interaction on percentage yield of fibre extract using Response Surface Methodology (RSM). A Box-Behnken design was employed to optimize the extraction process of cellulosic fibre from sugar cane by-product bagasse using low alkaline extraction technique. The quadratic model with the optimal technological conditions resulted in a maximum fibre yield of 56.80% at 0.55N NaOH concentration, 4 h steeping time and 60ᵒC soaking temperature. Among the independent variables concentration was found to be the most significant (P < 0.005) variable and the interaction effect of concentration and soaking time leads to securing the optimized processes.

Keywords: sugarcane bagasse, low alkaline, Box-Behnken, fibre

Procedia PDF Downloads 213

Authors: I. Gokasar, G. Bakioglu

Abstract:

With the unprecedented rates of technological improvements, people start to solve their problems with the help of technological tools. According to application stores and websites in which people evaluate and comment on the traffic apps, there are more than 100 traffic applications which have different features with respect to their purpose of usage ranging from the features of traffic apps for public transit modes to the features of traffic apps for private cars. This study focuses on the top 30 traffic applications which were chosen with respect to their download counts. All data about the traffic applications were obtained from related websites. The purpose of this study is to analyze traffic applications in terms of their categorical attributes with the help of developing a regression model. The analysis results suggest that negative interpretations (e.g., being deficient) does not lead to lower star ratings of the applications. However, those negative interpretations result in a smaller increase in star rate. In addition, women use higher star rates than men for the evaluation of traffic applications.

Keywords: traffic app, real–time information, traffic congestion, regression analysis, dummy variables

Procedia PDF Downloads 392

Authors: Feddaoui Amina

Abstract:

Income smoothing represents an attempt on the part of the company's management to reduce variations in earnings through the manipulation of the accounting principles. In this study, we aimed to measure income smoothing practices in a sample of 30 French joint stock companies during the period (2007-2009), we used Dummy variables method and “ECKEL” model to measure income smoothing practices and Binomial test accourding to SPSS program, to confirm or refute our hypothesis. This study concluded that there are no significant statistical indicators of income smoothing practices in the sample studied of French companies during the period (2007-2009), so the income series in the same sample studied of is characterized by stability and non-volatility without any intervention of management through accounting manipulation. However, this type of accounting manipulation should be taken into account and efforts should be made by control bodies to apply Eckel model and generalize its use at the global level.

Keywords: income, smoothing, 'Eckel', French companies

Procedia PDF Downloads 128