Search results for: demand determinants

Authors: Y. Ghiassi-Farrokhfal

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The number of electric vehicles (EVs) is increasing worldwide. Replacing gas fueled cars with EVs reduces carbon emission. However, the extensive energy consumption of EVs stresses the energy systems, requiring non-green sources of energy (such as gas turbines) to compensate for the new energy demand caused by EVs in the energy systems. To make EVs even a greener solution for the future energy systems, new EV charging stations are equipped with solar PV panels and batteries. This will help serve the energy demand of EVs through the green energy of solar panels. To ensure energy availability, solar panels are combined with batteries. The energy surplus at any point is stored in batteries and is used when there is not enough solar energy to serve the demand. While EV charging stations equipped with solar panels and batteries are green and ecologically optimal, they might not be financially viable solutions, due to battery prices. To make the system viable, we should size the battery economically and operate the system optimally. This is, in general, a challenging problem because of the stochastic nature of the EV arrivals at the charging station, the available solar energy, and the battery operating system. In this work, we provide a mathematical model for this problem and we compute the return on investment (ROI) of such a system, which is designed to be ecologically and financially optimal. We also quantify the minimum required investment in terms of battery and solar panels along with the operating strategy to ensure that a charging station has enough energy to serve its EV demand at any time.

Keywords: solar energy, battery storage, electric vehicle, charging stations

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Authors: Amirmohsen Behjat, Aleck Ostry, Christina Miewald, Bernie Pauly

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Substantial research has indicated that socioeconomic and demographic characteristics’ of neighborhoods are strong determinants of food security. The aim of this study was to develop a Food Insecurity Neighborhood Index (FINI) based on the associated socioeconomic and demographic variables to identify the areas at potential risk of food insecurity in rural British Columbia (BC). Principle Component Analysis (PCA) technique was used to calculate the FINI for each rural Dissemination Area (DA) using the food security determinant variables from Canadian Census data. Using ArcGIS, the neighborhoods with the top quartile FINI values were classified as food insecure. The results of this study indicated that the most food insecure neighborhood with the highest FINI value of 99.1 was in the Bulkley-Nechako (central BC) area whereas the lowest FINI with the value of 2.97 was for a rural neighborhood in the Cowichan Valley area. In total, 98.049 (19%) of the rural population of British Columbians reside in high food insecure areas. Moreover, the distribution of food insecure neighborhoods was found to be strongly dependent on the degree of rurality in BC. In conclusion, the cluster of food insecure neighbourhoods was more pronounced in Central Coast, Mount Wadington, Peace River, Kootenay Boundary, and the Alberni-Clayoqout Regional Districts.

Keywords: neighborhood food insecurity index, socioeconomic and demographic determinants, principal component analysis, Canada census, ArcGIS

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Authors: Hussain Ali Bekhet, Endang Jati Mat Sahid

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For the past few decades, the Malaysian economy has expanded at an impressive pace, whilst, the Malaysian population has registered a relatively high growth rate. These factors had driven the growth of final energy demand. The ballooning energy demand coupled with the country’s limited indigenous energy resources have resulted in an increased of the country’s net import. Therefore, acknowledging the precarious position of the country’s energy self-sufficiency, this study has identified three main concerns regarding energy security, namely; over-dependence on fossil fuel, increasing energy import dependency, and increasing energy consumption per capita. This paper discusses the recent energy demand and supply trends, highlights the policies that are affecting energy security in Malaysia and suggests strategic options towards achieving energy security. The paper suggested that diversifying energy sources, reducing carbon content of energy, efficient utilization of energy and facilitating low-carbon industries could further enhance the effectiveness of the measures as the introduction of policies and initiatives will be more holistic.

Keywords: electricity, energy policy, energy security, Malaysia

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Authors: Masoud Rabbani, Majede Smizadeh, Hamed Farrokhi-Asl

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We study jointly determining prices and production in a multiple period horizon under a general non-stationary stochastic demand with continuous prices. In some periods we need to increase capacity of production to satisfy demand. This paper presents a model to aid multi-period production capacity planning by quantifying the trade-off between product quality and production cost. The product quality is estimated as the statistical variation from the target performances obtained from the output tolerances of the production machines that manufacture the components. We consider different tolerance for different machines that use to increase capacity. The production cost is estimated as the total cost of owning and operating a production facility during the planning horizon.so capacity planning has cost that impact on price. Pricing products often turns out to be difficult to measure them because customers have a reservation price to pay that impact on price and demand. We decide to determine prices and production for periods after enhance capacity and consider reservation price to determine price. First we use an algorithm base on fuzzy set of the optimal objective function values to determine capacity planning by determine maximize interval from upper bound in minimum objectives and define weight for objectives. Then we try to determine inventory and pricing policies. We can use a lemma to solve a problem in MATLAB and find exact answer.

Keywords: price policy, inventory policy, capacity planning, product quality, epsilon -constraint

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Authors: Vanessa Kummer, Maik Meusel

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Real estate demand estimates are typically derived from transaction data. However, in regions with excess demand, transactions are driven by supply and therefore do not indicate what people are actually looking for. To estimate the demand for housing in Switzerland, search subscriptions from all important Swiss real estate platforms are used. These data do, however, suffer from missing information—for example, many users do not specify how many rooms they would like or what price they would be willing to pay. In economic analyses, it is often the case that only complete data is used. Usually, however, the proportion of complete data is rather small which leads to most information being neglected. Also, the data might have a strong distortion if it is complete. In addition, the reason that data is missing might itself also contain information, which is however ignored with that approach. An interesting issue is, therefore, if for economic analyses such as the one at hand, there is an added value by using the whole data set with the imputed missing values compared to using the usually small percentage of complete data (baseline). Also, it is interesting to see how different algorithms affect that result. The imputation of the missing data is done using unsupervised learning. Out of the numerous unsupervised learning approaches, the most common ones, such as clustering, principal component analysis, or neural networks techniques are applied. By training the model iteratively on the imputed data and, thereby, including the information of all data into the model, the distortion of the first training set—the complete data—vanishes. In a next step, the performances of the algorithms are measured. This is done by randomly creating missing values in subsets of the data, estimating those values with the relevant algorithms and several parameter combinations, and comparing the estimates to the actual data. After having found the optimal parameter set for each algorithm, the missing values are being imputed. Using the resulting data sets, the next step is to estimate the willingness to pay for real estate. This is done by fitting price distributions for real estate properties with certain characteristics, such as the region or the number of rooms. Based on these distributions, survival functions are computed to obtain the functional relationship between characteristics and selling probabilities. Comparing the survival functions shows that estimates which are based on imputed data sets do not differ significantly from each other; however, the demand estimate that is derived from the baseline data does. This indicates that the baseline data set does not include all available information and is therefore not representative for the entire sample. Also, demand estimates derived from the whole data set are much more accurate than the baseline estimation. Thus, in order to obtain optimal results, it is important to make use of all available data, even though it involves additional procedures such as data imputation.

Keywords: demand estimate, missing-data imputation, real estate, unsupervised learning

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Authors: Reina Kawase

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World GHG emissions should be reduced 50% by 2050 compared with 1990 level. CO2 emission reduction from steel sector, an energy-intensive sector, is essential. To estimate CO2 emission from steel sector in the world, estimation of steel production is required. The world steel production by process is estimated during the period of 2005-2050. The world is divided into aggregated 35 regions. For a steel making process, two kinds of processes are considered; basic oxygen furnace (BOF) and electric arc furnace (EAF). Steel production by process in each region is decided based on a current production capacity, supply-demand balance of steel and scrap, technology innovation of steel making, steel consumption projection, and goods trade. World steel production under moderate countermeasure scenario in 2050 increases by 1.3 times compared with that in 2012. When domestic scrap recycling is promoted, steel production in developed regions increases about 1.5 times. The share in developed regions changes from 34 %(2012) to about 40%(2050). This is because developed regions are main suppliers of scrap. 48-57% of world steel production is produced by EAF. Under the scenario which thinks much of supply-demand balance of steel, steel production in developing regions increases is 1.4 times and is larger than that in developed regions. The share in developing regions, however, is not so different from current level. The increase in steel production by EAF is the largest under the scenario in which supply-demand balance of steel is an important factor. The share reaches 65%.

Keywords: global steel production, production distribution scenario, steel making process, supply-demand balance

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Authors: Fabiana Lucena Oliveira, Aristides da Rocha Oliveira Junior

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This article discusses the dependence on air transport mode of agile supply chains. The agile supply chains are the result of the analysis of the uncertainty supply chain model, which ranks the supply chain, according to the respective product. Thus, understanding the Uncertainty Model and life cycle of products considered standard and innovative is critical to understanding these. The innovative character in the intersection of supply chains arising from the uncertainty model with its most appropriate transport mode. Consider here the variables availability, security and freight as determinants for choosing these modes. Therefore, the research problem is: How agile supply chains maintains logistics competitiveness, as these are dependent on air transport mode? A case study in Manaus Industrial Pole (MIP), an agglomeration model that includes six hundred industries from different backgrounds and billings, located in the Brazilian Amazon. The sample of companies surveyed include those companies whose products are classified in agile supply chains , as innovative and therefore live with the variable uncertainty in the demand for inputs or the supply of finished products. The results confirm the hypothesis that the dependency level of air transport mode is greater than fifty percent. It follows then, that maintain agile supply chain away from suppliers base is expensive (1) , and continuity analysis needs to be remade on each twenty four months (2) , consider that additional freight, handling and storage as members of the logistics costs (3) , and the comparison with the upcoming agile supply chains the world need to consider the location effect (4).

Keywords: uncertainty model, air transport mode, competitiveness, logistics

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Authors: Patarapan Odton

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This study investigates demographic and socio-economic factors of breastfeeding practice, including exclusively breastfeeding among children in Thailand using the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS3 and MICS4). Logistic regression models were used to examine the determinants of initial breastfeeding, exclusively breastfeeding, and predominant breastfeeding, using data from women and children section of the survey. For initial breastfeeding, women live in rural area were more likely to start breastfeeding within one day of birth rather than who live in urban area in both round of the surveys. In year 2012, there were significantly higher probabilities of women in rural area started breastfeeding within one hour of birth compare to urban area. Women in southern Thailand have higher probabilities of start breastfeeding within one hour and one day than women in Bangkok and central region. During the year 2005-2006, children aged less than 5 years old lived in rural area have been breastfed higher than children in urban area. Children live in the northeast region were more likely to have been breastfed than the other regions. Only the second wealth quintile group was significant higher probability of ever been breastfed than the poorest group. The findings in the second round of the survey are different from the year 2005-06. In 2012, there was no difference in probability of ever been breastfed among children live in urban and rural area, children in Bangkok and central region were less probability of ever been breastfed than the others.

Keywords: Breastfeeding, Exclusive Breastfeeding, Predominant Breastfeeding, Urban-Rural Difference

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Authors: Clive L. Morley

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Gravity models and panel data modelling of tourism flows are receiving renewed attention, after decades of general neglect. Such models have quite different underpinnings from conventional demand models derived from micro-economic theory. They operate at a different level of data and with different theoretical bases. These differences have important consequences for the interpretation of the results and their policy and managerial implications. This review compares and contrasts the two model forms, clarifying the distinguishing features and the estimation requirements of each. In general, gravity models are not recommended for use to address specific management and marketing purposes.

Keywords: gravity models, micro-economics, demand models, marketing

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Authors: Zunaidah Ab Hasan, Azhana Othman, Abd Halim Mohd Noor, Nor Shahrina Mohd Rafien

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Zakat is a portion of wealth contributed from financially able Muslims to be distributed to predetermine recipients; main among them are the poor and the needy. Distribution of the zakat fund is given with the objective to lift the recipients from poverty. Due to the multidimensional and multifaceted nature of poverty, it is imperative that the causes of poverty are properly identified for assistance given by zakat authorities reached the intended target. Despite, various studies undertaken to identify the poor correctly, there are reports of the poor not receiving the adequate assistance required from zakat. Thus, this study examines the determinants of poverty among applicants for zakat assistance distributed by the State Islamic Religious Council in Malacca (SIRCM). Malacca is a state in Malaysia. The respondents were based on the list of names of new zakat applicants for the month of April and May 2014 provided by SIRCM. A binary logistic regression was estimated based on this data with either zakat applications is rejected or accepted as the dependent variable and set of demographic variables and health as the explanatory variables. Overall, the logistic model successfully predicted factors of acceptance of zakat applications. Three independent variables namely gender, age; size of households and health significantly explain the likelihood of a successful zakat application. Among others, the finding suggests the importance of focusing on providing education opportunity in helping the poor.

Keywords: logistic regression, zakat distribution, status of zakat applications, poverty, education

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Authors: Zdzisław Kobos, Robert Jędrys, Zbigniew Wochyński

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Motor activity and good health are sine qua non determinants of a proper practice of the profession, especially aviation. Therefore, candidates to the aviation are selected according their psychomotor ability by both specialist medical commissions. Moreover, they must past an examination of the physical fitness. During the studies in the air force academy, eye-hand coordination is formed in two stages. The future aircraft pilots besides all-purpose physical education must practice specialist training on SAGI. Training includes: looping, aerowheel, and gyroscope. Aim of the training on the above listed apparatuses is to form eye-hand coordination during the tasks in the air. Such coordination is necessary to perform various figures in the real flight. Therefore, during the education of the future pilots, determinants of the effective ways of this important parameter of the human body functioning are sought for. Several studies of the sport psychology indicate an important role of the temperament as a factor determining human behavior during the task performance and acquiring operating skills> Polish psychologist Jan Strelau refers to the basic, relatively constant personality features which manifest themselves in the formal characteristics of the human behavior. Temperament, being initially determined by the inborn physiological mechanisms, changes in the course of maturation and some environmental factors and concentrates on the energetic level and reaction characteristics in time. Objectives. This study aimed at seeking a relationship between temperamental features and eye-hand coordination formation during training on SAGI. Material and Methods: Group of 30 students of pilotage was examined in two situations. The first assessment of the eye-hand coordination level was carried out before the beginning of a 30-hour training on SAGI. The second assessment was carried out after training completion. Training lasted for 2 hours once a week. Temperament was evaluated with The Formal Characteristics of Behavior − Temperament Inventory (FCB-TI) developed by Bogdan Zawadzki and Jan Strelau. Eye-hand coordination was assessed with a computer version of the Warsaw System of Psychological Tests. Results: It was found that the training on SAGI increased the level of eye-hand coordination in the examined students. Conclusions: Higher level of the eye-hand coordination was obtained after completion of the training. Moreover, a relationship between eye-hand coordination level and selected temperamental features was statistically significant.

Keywords: temperament, eye-hand coordination, pilot, SAGI

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Authors: Edi Artono, Budi Tamtomo, Gema Wahyudi Purnama

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The world energy demand increasing extreamly high time by time, including domestic demand. That is impossible to avoid because energy a country demand proportional to surge in the number of residents, economic growth and addition of industrial sector. Domestic Oil and gas conventional reserves depleted naturally while production outcome from reservoir also depleted time to time. In the other hand, new reserve did not discover significantly to replace it all. Many people are investigating to looking for new alternative energy to answer the challenge. There are several option to solve energy fossil needed problem using Unconventional Hydrocarbon. There are four aspects to consider as a management reference in order that Unconventional Hydrocarbon business can work properly, divided to: 1. Legal aspect, 2. Environmental aspect, 3. Technical aspect and 4. Economy aspect. The economic aspect as the key to whether or not a project can be implemented or not in Oil and Gas business scheme, so do Unconventional Hydorcarbon business scheme. The support of regulation are needed to buttress Unconventional Hydorcarbon business grow up and make benefits contribute to Government.

Keywords: alternative energy, unconventional hydrocarbon, regulation support, management strategy

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Authors: Gianni Blasi, Daniele Perrone, Maria Antonietta Aiello

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The seismic vulnerability of non-structural components is nowadays recognized to be a key issue in performance-based earthquake engineering. Recent loss estimation studies, as well as the damage observed during past earthquakes, evidenced how non-structural damage represents the highest rate of economic loss in a building and can be in many cases crucial in a life-safety view during the post-earthquake emergency. The procedures developed to evaluate the seismic demand on non-structural components have been constantly improved and recent studies demonstrated how the existing formulations provided by main Standards generally ignore features which have a sensible influence on the definition of the seismic acceleration/displacements subjecting non-structural components. Since the influence of the infills on the dynamic behaviour of RC structures has already been evidenced by many authors, it is worth to be noted that the evaluation of the seismic demand on non-structural components should consider the presence of the infills as well as their mechanical properties. This study focuses on the evaluation of time-history floor acceleration in RC buildings; which is a useful mean to perform seismic vulnerability analyses of non-structural components through the well-known cascade method. Dynamic analyses are performed on an 8-storey RC frame, taking into account the presence of the infills; the influence of the elastic modulus of the panel on the results is investigated as well as the presence of openings. Floor accelerations obtained from the analyses are used to evaluate the floor response spectra, in order to define the demand on non-structural components depending on the properties of the infills. Finally, the results are compared with formulations provided by main International Standards, in order to assess the accuracy and eventually define the improvements required according to the results of the present research work.

Keywords: floor spectra, infilled RC frames, non-structural components, seismic demand

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Authors: Nadjet Brahmia

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The evolution of urban forms, the new aspects of mobility, the ways of life and economic models make public transport conventional collective low-performing on the majority of largest Algerian cities, particularly in the west of Algeria. On the other side, the information and communication technologies (ICT) open new eventualities to develop a new mode of transport which brings together both the tenders offered by the public service collective and those of the particular vehicle, suitable for urban requirements, social and environmental. Like the concrete examples made in the international countries in terms of on-demand transport systems (ODT) more particularly in the developed countries, this article has for objective the opportunity analysis to establish a service of ODT at the level of a few towns of Oran Wilaya, such a service will be subsequently spread on the totality of the Wilaya if not on the whole of Algeria. In this context, we show the different existing means of transport in the current network whose aim to illustrate the points of insufficiency accented in the present transport system, then we discuss the solutions that may exhibit a service of ODT to the problem studied all around the transport sector, to carry at the end to highlight the capabilities of ODT replying to the transformation of mobilities, this in the light of well-defined cases.

Keywords: mobility, on-demand transport, public transport collective, transport system

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Authors: Endalew Fufa Kufi

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One of the major concerns in educational provision and success determination is access to available opportunities. In that, girls’ access to education has been a point of concern, and more emphasis has come to be at the forefront regarding success. Researches have mostly been held on extremes such as equal access and success, but only a few works deal with process issues related to home and school interplay, issues of progress from lower to higher levels, and spatial conditions related to girls’ education. Hence, this survey assessed experiences in three countries of Africa: Ethiopia, Ghana, and Botswana regarding girls’ education in policy and practice as related to contextual matters in girls’ education. Contextual discourse analysis of qualitative design was used to materialize the study. From each country, five research works held 2010 onwards were purposively selected through criterion-sampling. On the policy aspect, workable documents were looked into. The findings denoted that educational access was of more stretch and generic nature, and the narration was dominated by institutional expectations, not identifying which group should benefit what. The researches largely dealt with either subject-specific dealings or access alone at large. Success studies, by far, dealt with a comparison of girls with boys rather than determinant-related projections. Moreover, the cultural representation of girls’ education had a very minimal part in both policy and researches. From that, it could be found that in-depth scrutiny on the individual, institutional, and leadership determinants of girls’ education would be necessary.

Keywords: determinants, girls, education, feminism

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Authors: Timothy Akinwande, Eddie Hui, Karien Dekker

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Housing the urban poor remains a persistent challenge, despite evident research attention over many years. It is, therefore, pertinent to investigate affordable housing provision challenges with novel approaches. For innovative solutions to affordable housing constraints, it is apposite to thoroughly examine housing solutions vis a vis the key elements of the housing supply value chain (HSVC), which are housing finance, housing construction and land acquisition. A pragmatic analysis will examine affordable housing solutions from demand and supply perspectives to arrive at consolidated solutions from bilateral viewpoints. This study thoroughly examined informal housing finance strategies of the urban poor and diligently investigated expert opinion on affordable housing finance solutions. The research questions were: (1) What mutual grounds exist between informal housing finance solutions of the urban poor and housing expert solutions to affordable housing finance constraints in developing economies? (2) What are effective approaches to affordable housing finance in developing economies from an integrated demand - supply perspective? Semi-structured interviews were conducted in the 5 largest slums of Lagos, Nigeria, with 40 informal settlers for demand-oriented solutions, while focus group discussion and in-depth interviews were conducted with 12 housing experts in Nigeria for supply-oriented solutions. Following a rigorous thematic, content and descriptive analyses of data using NVivo and Excel, findings ascertained mutual solutions from both demand and supply standpoints that can be consolidated into more effective affordable housing finance solutions in Nigeria. Deliberate finance models that recognise and include the finance realities of the urban poor was found to be the most significant supply-side housing finance solution, representing 25.4% of total expert responses. Findings also show that 100% of sampled urban poor engage in vocations where they earn little irregular income or zero income, limiting their housing finance capacities and creditworthiness. Survey revealed that the urban poor are involved in community savings and employ microfinance institutions within the informal settlements to tackle their housing finance predicaments. These are informal finance models of the urban poor, revealing common grounds between demand and supply solutions for affordable housing financing. Effective, affordable housing approach will be to modify, institutionalise and incorporate the informal finance strategies of the urban poor into deliberate government policies. This consolidation of solutions from demand and supply perspectives can eliminate the persistent misalliance between affordable housing demand and affordable housing supply. This study provides insights into mutual housing solutions from demand and supply perspectives, and findings are informative for effective, affordable housing provision approaches in developing countries. This study is novel in consolidating affordable housing solutions from demand and supply viewpoints, especially in relation to housing finance as a key component of HSVC. The framework for effective, affordable housing finance in developing economies from a consolidated viewpoint generated in this study is significant for the achievement of sustainable development goals, especially goal 11 for sustainable, resilient and inclusive cities. Findings are vital for future housing studies.

Keywords: affordable housing, affordable housing finance, developing economies, effective affordable housing, housing policy, urban poor, sustainable development goal, sustainable affordable housing

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Authors: B. Chikh, L. Moussa, H. Bechtoula, Y. Mehani, A. Zerzour

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This study presents a new method, applicable to evaluation and design of structures has been developed and illustrated by comparison with the capacity spectrum method (CSM, ATC-40). This method uses inelastic spectra and gives peak responses consistent with those obtained when using the nonlinear time history analysis. Hereafter, the seismic demands assessment method is called in this paper DSM, Ductility Spectrum Method. It is used to estimate the seismic deformation of Single-Degree-Of-Freedom (SDOF) systems based on DDRS, Ductility Demand Response Spectrum, developed by the author.

Keywords: seismic demand, capacity, inelastic spectra, design and structure

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Authors: Ira Joseph

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The LNG paradox addresses the issue of how the most expensive form of gas supply, which is LNG, will grow in an end user market where demand is most competitive, which is power generation. In this case, LNG demand growth is under siege from two entirely different directions. At one end is price; it will be extremely difficult for gas to replace coal in Asia due to the low price of coal and the age of the generation plants. Asia's coal fleet, on average, is less than two decades old and will need significant financial incentives to retire before its state lifespan. While gas would cut emissions in half relative to coal, it would also more than double the price of the fuel source for power generation, which puts it in a precarious position. In most countries in Asia other than China, this cost increase, particularly from imports, is simply not realistic when it is also necessary to focus on economic growth and social welfare. On the other end, renewables are growing at an exponential rate for three reasons. One is that prices are dropping. Two is that policy incentives are driving deployment, and three is that China is forcing renewables infrastructure into the market to take a political seat at the global energy table with Saudi Arabia, the US, and Russia. Plus, more renewables will lower import growth of oil and gas in China, if not end it altogether. Renewables are the predator at the gate of gas demand in power generation and in every year that passes, renewables cut into demand growth projections for gas; in particular, the type of gas that is most expensive, which is LNG. Gas does have a role in the future, particularly within a domestic market. Once it crosses borders in the form of LNG or even pipeline gas, it quickly becomes a premium fuel and must be marketed and used this way. Our research shows that gas will be able to compete with batteries as an intermittency and storage tool and does offer a method to harmonize with renewables as part of the energy transition. As a baseload fuel, however, the role of gas, particularly, will be limited by cost once it needs to cross a border. Gas converted into blue or green hydrogen or ammonia is also an option for storage depending on the location. While this role is much reduced from the primary baseload role that gas once aspired to land, it still offers a credible option for decades to come.

Keywords: natural gas, LNG, demand, price, intermittency, storage, renewables

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Authors: Dilupa Nakandala, Henry Lau

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Ever increasing demand for cost efficiency and customer satisfaction through reliable delivery have been a mandate for logistics practitioners to continually improve inventory management processes. With the cost optimization objectives, this study considers an extended scenario where sourcing from the same echelon of the supply chain, known as lateral transshipment which is instantaneous but more expensive than purchasing from regular suppliers, is considered by warehouses not only to re-actively fulfill the urgent outstanding retailer demand that could not be fulfilled by stock on hand but also for preventively reduce back-order cost. Such extra lateral trans-shipments as preventive responses are intended to meet the expected demand during the supplier lead time in a periodic review ordering policy setting. We develop decision rules to assist logistics practitioners to make cost optimized selection between back-ordering and combined reactive and proactive lateral transshipment options. A method for determining the optimal quantity of extra lateral transshipment is developed considering the trade-off between purchasing, holding and backorder cost components.

Keywords: lateral transshipment, warehouse inventory management, cost optimization, preventive transshipment

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Authors: Rana Praween Kumar

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Preterm-low birth weight delivery is a major cause of infant morbidity and mortality in developing countries and has been linked to poor periodontal health during pregnancy. Gingivitis and chronic periodontitis are highly prevalent chronic inflammatory oral diseases. The detection and diagnosis of these common diseases is a fundamentally important component of oral health care. This study is intended to investigate predisposing and enabling factors as determinants of oral health indicators in pregnancy as well as the association between periodontal problems during pregnancy with age and socio economic status of the individual. A community –based prospective cohort study will be conducted in Jamshedpur, Jharkhand, India among pregnant women using completed interviews and a full mouth oral clinical examination using the CPITN (Community Periodontal Index of Treatment Need) and OHI-S (Simplified Oral Hygiene) indices with adequate sample size and informed consent to the patient following proper inclusion and exclusion criteria. Multiple logistic regression analyses will be used to identify independent determinants of periodontal problems and use of dental services during pregnancy. Analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) will be used to investigate the relationship between periodontal problems with the age and socioeconomic status. The result will help in proper monitoring of periodontal health during pregnancy encouraging the delivery of healthy child and the maintenance of proper health of the mother.

Keywords: infant, periodontal problems, pregnancy, pre-term-low birth weight delivery

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Authors: Ahmad Samim Ranjbar, Shoshi Mizokami

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Kabul is the heart of political, commercial, cultural, educational and social life in Afghanistan and the Kabul fifth fastest growing city in the world, since 2001 with the establishment of new government Lack of adequate employment opportunities and basic utility services in remote provinces have prompted people to move to Kabul and other urban areas. From 2001 to the present, a rapid increase in population, and also less income of the people most of residence tend to use public transport, especially buses, however there is no proper bus system exist in Kabul city, because of wars, from 1992 to 2001 Kabul suffered damage and destruction of its transportation facilities including pavements, sidewalks, traffic circles, drainage systems, traffic signs and signals, trolleybuses and almost all of the public transit buses (e.g. Millie bus). This research is a primary and very important phase into Kabul city transportation and especially an initial and important step toward using large bus in Kabul city, which the main purpose of this research is to find the demand of Kabul city residence for public transport (Large Bus) and compare it with the actual supply from government. Finding of this research shows that the demand of Kabul city residence for the public transport (Large Bus) exceed the supply from the government, means that current public transportation (Large Bus) is not sufficient to serve people of Kabul city, it is mentionable that according to this research there is no need to build a new road or exclusive way for bus, this research propose to government for investment on the public transportation and exceed the number of large buses to can handle the current demand for public transport.

Keywords: transportation, planning, public transport, large bus, Kabul, Afghanistan

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Authors: Kumari Bandana Bhatt, Navin Bhatt

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Background: Orphans and vulnerable children (OVC) are high risk of physical, mental, sexual and emotional abuse and face social stigma and discrimination which significantly increase the risk of mental and behavioral disorders such as anxiety, depression or emotional problems even they stay in well run child care homes. The objective of this study was to estimate the prevalence of depression and determine the determinants among OVC in child care homes in Nepal. Methods: An institutional-based analytical cross-sectional study was conducted in twenty orphanages of five districts of Nepal. Six hundred two children were recruited into the study. After the informed consent form obtaining, the guardian and assent were interviewed by a semi-structured questionnaire and Beck Depression Inventory-II (BDI-II). Logistic regression was used for detecting the association between variables at the significant level of =0.05. Results: The study revealed that 33.20% of OVC had depression. Among them 66.80% of children experienced minimal depression, 17.40% had mild depression, 11.30% had moderate depression 4.50% had severe depression. Sex, alcohol drinking, congenital problem, social support and bully were the main variables associated with depression among OVC of the child care homes in Nepal. Conclusion: Prevalence of depression was high among the orphans and vulnerable children living in child care homes especially among the female children in Nepal. Therefore, early identification and instituting of preventive measures of depression are essential to reduce this problem in this special group of children living in child care homes.

Keywords: Mental health, Depression, Orphans and vulnerable children, child care homes

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Authors: Federico Valenzuela-Beltran, Sonia E. Ruiz, Alfredo Reyes-Salazar, Juan Bojorquez

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A reliability-based methodology which uses structural demand hazard curves to consider the increment of the ductility demands of structures with tilting is proposed. The approach considers the effect of two orthogonal components of the ground motions as well as the influence of soil-structure interaction. The approach involves the calculation of ductility demand hazard curves for symmetric systems and, alternatively, for systems with different degrees of asymmetry. To get this objective, demand hazard curves corresponding to different global ductility demands of the systems are calculated. Next, Uniform Exceedance Rate Spectra (UERS) are developed for a specific mean annual rate of exceedance value. Ratios between UERS corresponding to asymmetric and to symmetric systems located in soft soil of the valley of Mexico are obtained. Results indicate that the ductility demands corresponding to tilted structures may be several times higher than those corresponding to symmetric structures, depending on several factors such as tilting angle and vibration period of structure and soil.

Keywords: asymmetric yielding, seismic performance, structural reliability, tilted structures

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Authors: Rose Branch-Allen, John Jayachandran

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Background and purpose: Canada is a pluralistic, multicultural society with an ethno-cultural composition that has been shaped over time by immigrants and their descendants. Although Canada welcomes these immigrants, many will endure hardship and assimilation difficulties. Despite these life hurdles, surveys consistently disclose high life satisfaction for all Canadians. Most research studies on Life Satisfaction/ Subjective Wellbeing (SWB) have focused on one main determinant and a variety of social demographic variables to delineate the determinants of life satisfaction. However, very few research studies examine life satisfaction from a holistic approach. In addition, we need to understand the causal pathways leading to life satisfaction, and develop theories that explain why certain variables differentially influence the different components of SWB. The aim this study was to utilize a holistic approach to construct a causal model and identify major determinants of life satisfaction. Data and measures: This study utilized data from the General Social Survey, with a sample size of 19, 597. The exogenous concepts included age, gender, marital status, household size, socioeconomic status, ethnicity, location, immigration status, religiosity, and neighborhood. The intervening concepts included health, social contact, leisure, enjoyment, work-family balance, quality time, domestic labor, and sense of belonging. The endogenous concept life satisfaction was measured by multiple indicators (Cronbach’s alpha = .83). Analysis: Several multiple regression models were run sequentially to estimate path coefficients for the causal model. Results: Overall, above average satisfaction with life was reported for respondents with specific socio-economic, demographic and lifestyle characteristics. With regard to exogenous factors, respondents who were female, younger, married, from high socioeconomic status background, born in Canada, very religious, and demonstrated high level of neighborhood interaction had greater satisfaction with life. Similarly, intervening concepts suggested respondents had greater life satisfaction if they had better health, more social contact, less time on passive leisure activities and more time on active leisure activities, more time with family and friends, more enjoyment with volunteer activities, less time on domestic labor and a greater sense of belonging to the community. Conclusions and Implications: Our results suggest that a holistic approach is necessary for establishing determinants of life satisfaction, and that life satisfaction is not merely comprised of positive or negative affect rather understanding the causal process of life satisfaction. Even though, most of our findings are consistent with previous studies, a significant number of causal connections contradict some of the findings in literature today. We have provided possible explanation for these anomalies researchers encounter in studying life satisfaction and policy implications.

Keywords: causal model, holistic approach, life satisfaction, socio-demographic variables, subjective well-being

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Authors: Aydin Sipahioglu, Gokhan Celik

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Helicopter routing problem (HRP) is finding good tours for helicopter so as to pick up and deliver personnel or material among specified nodes, mutually. It can be encountered in case of being lots of supply and demand points for different commodities and requiring delivering commodities with helicopter. For instance, to deliver personnel or material from shore to oil rig is a good example. In fact, HRP is a branch of vehicle routing problem with pickup and delivery (VRPPD). However, it has additional constraints such that fuel capacity, performance of helicopter in different altitude and temperature, and the number of maximum takeoff and landing allowed. This kind of pickup and delivery problems can be classified into 3 groups, basically. 1-1 (one to one), M-M (many to many) and 1-M-1 (one to many to one). 1-1 means each commodity has only one supply and one demand point. M-M means there can be more than one supply and demand points for each kind of commodity. 1-M-1 means commodities at depot are delivered to demand points and commodities at customers are delivered to depot. In this case helicopter takes off from its own base, complete its tour and return to its own base. In this study, we define 1-M-M-1 type HRP. That means helicopter takes off from its home base, deliver commodities among the nodes as well as between depot and customers and return to its home base. These problems have NP-hard nature. Therefore, obtaining a good solution in a reasonable time is not easy. In this study, a model is offered for 1-M-M-1 type HRP. It is shown on small scale test instances that the model can find the optimal solution.

Keywords: helicopter routing problem, vehicle routing with pickup and delivery, integer programming

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Authors: Tochukwu Timothy Okoli, Devi Datt Tewari

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The high rate of Fintech adoption has not transmitted to greater financial inclusion and development in Africa. This problem is attributed to poor Fintech diversification and usefulness in the continent. This concept is referred to as the Fintech depth of penetration in this study. The study, therefore, assessed its determinants and growth process in a panel of three emergings, twenty-four frontiers and five fragile African economies disaggregated with dummies over the period 2004-2018 to allow for heterogeneity between groups. The System Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) technique reveals that the average depth of Mobile banking and automated teller machine (ATM) is a dynamic heterogeneity process. Moreover, users' previous experiences/compatibility, trial-ability/income, and financial development were the major factors that raise its usefulness, whereas perceived risk, financial openness, and inflation rate significantly limit its usefulness. The growth rate of Mobile banking, ATM, and Internet banking in 2018 is, on average 41.82, 0.4, and 20.8 per cent respectively greater than its average rates in 2004. These greater averages after the 2009 financial crisis suggest that countries resort to Fintech as a risk-mitigating tool. This study, therefore, recommends greater Fintech diversification through improved literacy, institutional development, financial liberalization, and continuous innovation.

Keywords: depth of fintech, emerging Africa, financial technology, internet banking, mobile banking

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Authors: Henri El Zakhem, Dona Shalhoub, Elias Atallah, Jessica Koura

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Due to the increase of demand on dietetic food and the need for more types of diet food, the production of dietetic food is increasing and improving. This demand on dietetic food has triggered us to study the market in which we found that Kishk (Lebanese dairy product) diet is not available. Production of a low fat product which is diet Kishk was our concern. A strategy was followed to choose the right idea that will satisfy the need of the market. The whole process was studied and explained thoroughly. The percentage of fat was found to be 32.52 % in regular Kishk and 3.84 % in the diet Kishk produced. The new product has the advantage to be high in protein, low in fat.

Keywords: design and industrialization, dietetic, diet Kishk, fat

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Authors: Thea Freese, Michael Gille, Andrew Hursthouse, John Struthers

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Ship operators on the North and Baltic Sea have been experiencing increased political interest in marine environmental protection and cleaner vessel operations. Stricter legislation on SO2 and NOx emissions, ballast water management and other measures of protection are currently being phased in or will come into force in the coming years. These measures benefit the health of the marine environment, while increasing company’s operational costs. In times of excess shipping capacity and linked consolidation in the industry non-compliance with environmental rules is one way companies might hope to stay competitive with both intra- and inter-modal trade. Around 5-15% of industry participants are believed to neglect laws on vessel-source pollution willingly or unwillingly. Exploratory in-depth interviews conducted with 12 experts from various stakeholder groups informed the researchers about variables influencing compliance levels, including awareness and apprehension, willingness to comply, ability to comply and effectiveness of controls. Semi-structured expert interviews were evaluated using qualitative content analysis. A model of determinants of compliance was developed and is presented here. While most vessel operators endeavour to achieve full compliance with environmental rules, a lack of availability of technical solutions, expediency of implementation and operation and economic feasibility might prove a hindrance. Ineffective control systems on the other hand foster willing non-compliance. With respect to motivations, lacking time, lacking financials and the absence of commercial advantages decrease compliance levels. These and other variables were inductively developed from qualitative data and integrated into a model on environmental compliance. The outcomes presented here form part of a wider research project on economic effects of maritime environmental legislation. Research on determinants of compliance might inform policy-makers about actual behavioural effects of shipping companies and might further the development of a comprehensive legal system for environmental protection.

Keywords: compliance, marine environmental protection, exploratory qualitative research study, clean vessel operations, North and Baltic Sea area

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Authors: Li Qiaoming

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The outbreak of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in early 2020 brought new opportunities to the development of the digital creative industry in China. Based on the realistic foundation of the development of the digital creative industry in China, an analysis was conducted on the mechanism of action of the pandemic on this industry from both sides of supply and demand by sorting out its concept, connotation, and related theories. To be specific, the demand side experienced changes due to the changes in the consumption habits of residents, the sharp increase in gross domestic time (GDT), the satisfaction of the psychological needs of users, search for substitutes for offline consumption, and other factors. An analysis was carried out on the mechanism of action of the pandemic on the digital creative industry from the production link, supply subjects, product characteristics, and transmission link of the supply side. Then, a detailed discussion was held on the manifestation forms of the impact of the pandemic from the dimensions of time and space. Finally, this paper discussed the main development focuses of the digital creative industry in the post-pandemic era from the aspects of the government, industries, and enterprises.

Keywords: COVID-19, demand and supply relationship, digital creative industries, industry shocks

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Authors: Frezer Okubay Weldegebriel

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The tourism sector in Ethiopia plays a significant role in the national economy. The government is granting its pledge and readiness to develop this sector through various initiatives since to eradicate poverty and encourage economic development of the country is one of the Millennium Development plans. The tourism sector has been identified as one of the priority economic sectors by many countries, and the Government of Ethiopia has planned to make Ethiopia among the top five African destinations by 2020. Nevertheless, the international tourism demand for Ethiopia currently lags behind other African countries such as South Africa, Egypt, Morocco, Tanzania, and Kenya. Meanwhile, the number of international tourists’ arrival in Ethiopia is recently increasing even if it cannot be competitive with other African countries. Therefore, to offer demand-driven tourism products, the Ethiopian government, Tourism planners, Tour & Travel operators need to understand the important factors, which affect international tourists’ decision to visit Ethiopian destinations. This study was intended to analyze Italian Tourists Demand towards Ethiopian destination. The researcher aimed to identify the demand for Italian tourists’ preference to Ethiopian destinations comparing to the top East African countries. This study uses both qualitative and quantitative research methodology, and the data is manipulating through primary data collection method using questionnaires, interviews, and secondary data by reviewing books, journals, magazines, past researches, and websites. An active and potential Italian tourist cohort, five well-functioning tour operators based in Ethiopia for Italian tourists and professionals from Ethiopian Ministry of Tourism and Culture participated. Based on the analysis of the data collected through the questionnaire, interviews, and reviews of different materials, the study disclosed that the majority of Italian tourists have a high demand on Ethiopian Tourist destination. Historical and cultural interest, safety and security, the hospitality of the people and affordable accommodation coast are the main reason for them. However, some Italian tourists prefer to visit Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda due to the fact that they are fascinated by adventure, safari and beaches, while Ethiopia cannot provide these attractions. Most Italian tourists have little information and practical experiences on Ethiopian tourism possibilities via a tour and travel companies. Moreover, the insufficient marketing campaign and promotion by Ethiopian Government and Ministry of Tourism could also contribute to the failure of Ethiopian tourism.

Keywords: The demand of Italian tourists, Ethiopia economy, Ethiopia tourism destination, promoting Ethiopia tourism

Procedia PDF Downloads 168