Search results for: cumulative past inaccuracy

Authors: Bibiana Matilde Bernal Gómez, Manuel Salvador Rodríguez Susa, Mildred Fernanda Lemus Perez

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In chlorinated drinking water, Haloacetic acids have been identified and are classified as disinfection byproducts originating from reaction between natural organic matter and/or bromide ions in water sources. These byproducts can be generated through a variety of chemical and pharmaceutical processes. The term ‘Total Haloacetic Acids’ (THAAs) is used to describe the cumulative concentration of dichloroacetic acid, trichloroacetic acid, monochloroacetic acid, monobromoacetic acid, and dibromoacetic acid in water samples, which are usually measured to evaluate water quality. Chronic presence of these acids in drinking water has a risk of cancer in humans. The detection of THAAs for the first time in 15 municipalities of Boyacá was accomplished in 2023. Aim is to describe the correlation between the levels of THAAs and digestive cancer in Tunja, a city in Colombia with higher rates of digestive cancer and to compare the risk across 15 towns, taking into account factors such as water quality. A research project was conducted with the aim of comparing water sources based on the geographical features of the town, describing the disinfection process in 15 municipalities, and exploring physical properties such as water temperature and pH level. The project also involved a study of contact time based on habits documented through a survey, and a comparison of socioeconomic factors and lifestyle, in order to assess the personal risk of exposure. Data on the levels of THAAs were obtained after characterizing the water quality in urban sectors in eight months of 2022. This, based on the protocol described in the Stage 2 DBP of the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) from 2006, which takes into account the size of the population being supplied. A cancer risk assessment was conducted to evaluate the likelihood of an individual developing cancer due to exposure to pollutants THAAs. The assessment considered exposure methods like oral ingestion, skin absorption, and inhalation. The chronic daily intake (CDI) for these exposure routes was calculated using specific equations. The lifetime cancer risk (LCR) was then determined by adding the cancer risks from the three exposure routes for each HAA. The risk assessment process involved four phases: exposure assessment, toxicity evaluation, data gathering and analysis, and risk definition and management. The results conclude that there is a cumulative higher risk of digestive cancer due to THAAs exposure in drinking water.

Keywords: haloacetic acids, drinking water, water quality, cancer risk assessment

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Authors: Merve Akca

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Retrieval-induced forgetting (RIF) refers to the phenomenon that selective retrieval of some information impairs memory for related, but not previously retrieved information. Despite age differences in retrieval-induced forgetting regarding retrospective memory being documented, this research aimed to highlight age differences in RIF of the prospective memory tasks for the first time. By using retrieval-practice paradigm, this study comparatively examined RIF effects in retrospective memory and event-based prospective memory in young and old adults. In this experimental study, a mixed factorial design with age group (Young, Old) as a between-subject variable, and memory type (Prospective, Retrospective) and item type (Practiced, Non-practiced) as within-subject variables was employed. Retrieval-induced forgetting was observed in the retrospective but not in the prospective memory task. Therefore, the results indicated that selective retrieval of past events led to suppression of other related past events in both age groups but not the suppression of memory for future intentions.

Keywords: prospective memory, retrieval-induced forgetting, retrieval inhibition, retrospective memory

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Authors: Sally Heyeon Hwang

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Within decision theory, there are normative principles that dictate how one should act in addition to empirical theories of actual behavior. As a normative guide to one’s actual behavior, evidential or causal decision-theoretic equations allow one to identify outcomes with maximal utility values. The choice that each person makes, however, will, of course, differ according to varying assignments of weight and probability values. Regarding these different choices, it remains a subject of considerable philosophical controversy whether individual subjects have the capacity to exercise free will with respect to the assignment of probabilities, or whether instead the assignment is in some way constrained. A version of this question is given a precise form in Richard Jeffrey’s assumption that free will is necessary for Newcomb’s paradox to count as a decision problem. This paper will argue, against Jeffrey, that decision theory does not require the assumption of libertarian freedom. One of the hallmarks of decision-making is its application across a wide variety of contexts; the implications of a background assumption of free will is similarly varied. One constant across the contexts of decision is that there are always at least two levels of choice for a given agent, depending on the degree of prior constraint. Within the context of Newcomb’s problem, when the predictor is attempting to guess the choice the agent will make, he or she is analyzing the determined aspects of the agent such as past characteristics, experiences, and knowledge. On the other hand, as David Lewis’ backtracking argument concerning the relationship between past and present events brings to light, there are similarly varied ways in which the past can actually be dependent on the present. One implication of this argument is that even in deterministic settings, an agent can have more free will than it may seem. This paper will thus argue against the view that a stable background assumption of free will or determinism in decision theory is necessary, arguing instead for a compatibilist decision theory yielding a novel treatment of Newcomb’s problem.

Keywords: decision theory, compatibilism, free will, Newcomb’s problem

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Authors: Anthony Schmiedeler

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Reliable measurements for body esteem and time perspective have been constructed to acquire additional knowledge into these two distinct and personal domains of individuals. The Body Esteem Scale (BES) assesses the multidimensional body self-esteems of males and females and produces a particular score. A higher BES score indicates an individual has strong positive feelings relating to particular aspects of the individual’s body. The Zimbardo Time Perspective Inventory (ZTPI) measures individuals’ time perspectives and identifies their dominant time perspective profiles. Higher scores in a time perspective profile, such as Past Positive (i.e., nostalgically remembering the past), suggest an individuals’ inclination toward that specific way of orienting oneself with respect to time. Both scales rely on measurements that are similarly grounded in personality traits and reveal valuable insight into individuals’ personalities. Studying the two scales could provide insight into a possible relationship and allow for a better comprehension and more nuanced understanding of the utilities of the instruments. In a completed study, 69 adults completed both the ZTPI and BES. Analyses show that adult females’ higher BES scores positively correlate with higher scores of the Past Positive and Present Hedonistic time perspective profiles of the ZTPI. Male participants also had higher overall BES scores positively correlate with the Present Hedonistic profile in addition to the Positive Future time perspective profile. The results of this study suggest that individuals with certain body esteem scores have a pattern of corresponding with certain time orientations. These correlations could help in explaining the rationales behind individuals’ varying levels of body esteem. With a foundation for better understanding of body esteem by incorporating these time perspectives, future research could be conducted to develop instruments that more accurately reflect individuals’ body esteem measurements.

Keywords: BES, body esteem, time perspective, ZTPI

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Authors: Hsiu-Ling Hsu, En-Minh (John) Lan

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Pronunciation has received more and more language researchers’ and teachers’ attention because it is important for effective or even successful communication. How to consistently and correctly orally produce verbal morphology, such as English regular past tense inflection, has been a big challenge and troublesome for FL learners. The research aims to explore EFL (English as a foreign language) learners’ developmental trajectory of the inflectional morphology, that is, what mediating processes and strategies EFL learners use, to attain native-like prosodic structure of inflectional morphemes (e.g., –ed and –s suffixes) by comparing the differences among EFL learners at different English levels. This research adopted a self-repair analysis and Prosodic Transfer Hypothesis with three developmental stages as a theoretical framework. To answer the research questions, we conducted two experiments, grammatical tense test written production (Experiment 1) and read-aloud oral production (Experiment 2), and recruited 30 participants who were divided into three groups, low-, middle-, and advanced EFL learners. Experiment 1 was conducted to ensure that participants had learned the knowledge of forming the English regular past tense rules and Experiment 2 was carried out to compare the data across FL English learner groups at different English levels. The EFL learners’ self-repair data showed at least four interesting findings. First, low achievers were more sensitive to the plural suffix -s than the past tense suffix -ed. Middle achievers exhibited a greater responsiveness to the past tense suffix, while high achievers demonstrated equal sensitivity to both suffixes. Additionally, two strategies used by EFL English learners to produce verbs and nouns with inflectional morphemes were to delete internal syllable and to divide a four-syllable verb (e.g., ‘graduated’) into two prosodic structures (e.g., ‘gradu’ and ‘ated’ or ‘gradua’ and ‘ted’). Third, true vowel epenthesis was found only in the low EFL achievers. Moreover fortition (native-like sound) was observed in the low and middle EFL achievers. These findings and self-repair data disclosed mediating processes between the developmental stages and provided insight on how Taiwan EFL learners attained the adjunction prosodic structures of inflectional Morphemes in English.

Keywords: inflectional morphology, prosodic structure, developmental trajectory, strategies and mediating processes, English as a foreign language

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Authors: Matthias Haerri, Tobias Huettche, Clemens Kustner

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This article discusses the impact of digitization on business valuation. In order to become and remain ‘digital’, investments are necessary whose return on investment (ROI) often remains vague. This uncertainty is contradictory for a valuation, that rely on predictable cash flows, fixed capital structures and the steady state. However digitisation does not make a company valuation impossible, but traditional approaches must be reconsidered. The authors identify four areas that are to be changing: (1) Tools instead of intuition - In the future, company valuation will neither be art nor science, but craft. This does not require intuition, but experience and good tools. Digital evaluation tools beyond Excel will therefore gain in importance. (2) Real-time instead of deadline - At present, company valuations are always carried out on a case-by-case basis and on a specific key date. This will change with the digitalization and the introduction of web-based valuation tools. Company valuations can thus not only be carried out faster and more efficiently, but can also be offered more frequently. Instead of calculating the value for a previous key date, current and real-time valuations can be carried out. (3) Predictive planning instead of analysis of the past - Past data will also be needed in the future, but its use will not be limited to monovalent time series or key figure analyses. With pictures of ‘black swans’ and the ‘turkey illusion’ it was made clear to us that we build forecasts on too few data points of the past and underestimate the power of chance. Predictive planning can help here. (4) Convergence instead of residual value - Digital transformation shortens the lifespan of viable business models. If companies want to live forever, they have to change forever. For the company valuation, this means that the business model valid on the valuation date only has a limited service life.

Keywords: business valuation, corporate finance, digitisation, disruption

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Authors: Derick M. Rakgoale, Topside E. Mathonsi, Vusumuzi Malele

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Cloud computing offers distributed online and on-demand computational services from anywhere in the world. Cloud computing services have grown immensely over the past years, especially in the past year due to the Coronavirus pandemic. Cloud computing has changed the working environment and introduced work from work phenomenon, which enabled the adoption of technologies to fulfill the new workings, including cloud services offerings. The increased cloud computing adoption has come with new challenges regarding data privacy and its integrity in the cloud environment. Previously advanced encryption algorithms failed to reduce the memory space required for cloud computing performance, thus increasing the computational cost. This paper reviews the existing encryption algorithms used in cloud computing. In the future, artificial neural networks (ANN) algorithm design will be presented as a security solution to ensure data integrity, confidentiality, privacy, and availability of user data in cloud computing. Moreover, MATLAB will be used to evaluate the proposed solution, and simulation results will be presented.

Keywords: cloud computing, data integrity, confidentiality, privacy, availability

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Authors: Debarati Bhaumik, Diptish Dey

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Multilevel models, increasingly deployed in industries such as insurance, food production, and entertainment within functions such as marketing and supply chain management, need to be transparent and ethical. Applications usually result in binary classification within groups or hierarchies based on a set of input features. Using open-source datasets, we demonstrate that popular explainability methods, such as SHAP and LIME, consistently underperform inaccuracy when interpreting these models. They fail to predict the order of feature importance, the magnitudes, and occasionally even the nature of the feature contribution (negative versus positive contribution to the outcome). Besides accuracy, the computational intractability of SHAP for binomial classification is a cause of concern. For transparent and ethical applications of these hierarchical statistical models, sound audit frameworks need to be developed. In this paper, we propose an audit framework for technical assessment of multilevel regression models focusing on three aspects: (i) model assumptions & statistical properties, (ii) model transparency using different explainability methods, and (iii) discrimination assessment. To this end, we undertake a quantitative approach and compare intrinsic model methods with SHAP and LIME. The framework comprises a shortlist of KPIs, such as PoCE (Percentage of Correct Explanations) and MDG (Mean Discriminatory Gap) per feature, for each of these three aspects. A traffic light risk assessment method is furthermore coupled to these KPIs. The audit framework will assist regulatory bodies in performing conformity assessments of AI systems using multilevel binomial classification models at businesses. It will also benefit businesses deploying multilevel models to be future-proof and aligned with the European Commission’s proposed Regulation on Artificial Intelligence.

Keywords: audit, multilevel model, model transparency, model explainability, discrimination, ethics

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Authors: Einat E. Peles, Shaul Schreiber, Miriam Adelson

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Background: Since established more than 50 years ago, methadone maintenance treatment (MMT) is the most effective treatment for opioid addiction, a chronic relapsing brain disorder that became an epidemic in western societies. Treatment includes daily individual optimal medication methadone dose (a long acting mu opioid receptor full agonist), accompanied with psychosocial therapy. It is well established that the longer retention in treatment the better outcome and survival occur. It reduces the likelihood to infectious diseases and overdose death that associated with drug injecting, enhanced social rehabilitation and eliminate criminal activity, and lead to healthy productive life. Aim: To evaluate predictors for long term retention in treatment we analyzed our prospective follow up of a major MMT clinic affiliated to a big tertiary medical center. Population Methods: Between June 25, 1993, and June 24, 2016, all 889 patients ( ≥ 18y) who ever admitted to the clinic were prospectively followed-up until May 2017. Duration in treatment from the first admission until the patient quit treatment or until the end of follow-up (24 years) was taken for calculating cumulative retention in treatment using survival analyses (Kaplan Meier) with log-rank and Cox regression for multivariate analyses. Results: Of the 889 patients, 25.2% were females who admitted to treatment at younger age (35.0 ± 7.9 vs. 40.6 ± 9.8, p < .0005), but started opioid usage at same age (22.3 ± 6.9). In addition to opioid use, on admission to MMT 58.5% had positive urine for benzodiazepines, 25% to cocaine, 12.4% to cannabis and 6.9% to amphetamines. Hepatitis C antibody tested positive in 55%, and HIV in 7.8% of the patients and 40%. Of all patients, 75.7% stayed at least one year in treatment, and of them, 67.7% stopped opioid usage (based on urine tests), and a net reduction observed in all other substance abuse (proportion of those who stopped minus proportion of those who have started). Long term retention up to 24 years was 8.0 years (95% Confidence Interval (CI) 7.4-8.6). Predictors for longer retention in treatment (Cox regression) were being older on admission ( ≥ 30y) Odds Ratio (OR) =1.4 (CI 1.1-1.8), not abusing opioids after one year OR=1.8 (CI 1.5-2.1), not abusing benzodiazepine after one year OR=1.7 (CI 1.4-2.1) and treating with methadone dose ≥ 100mg/day OR =1.8 (CI 1.5-2.3). Conclusions: Treating and following patients over 24 years indicate success of two main outcomes, high rate of retention after one year (75.7%) and high proportion of opiate abuse cessation (67.7%). As expected, longer cumulative retention was associated with patients treated with high adequate methadone dose that successfully result in opioid cessation. Based on these findings, in order to reduce morbidity and mortality, we find the establishment of more MMT clinics within a general hospital, a most urgent necessity.

Keywords: methadone maintenance treatment, epidemic, opioids, retention

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Authors: Chin Pang Lei

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Colonized by the UK, handed over to China, and now as a global financial city, Hong Kong’s history is never easy to write under the dominant discourses of colonialism, nationalism and globalization. In this plight, cinema, regarded as Hong Kong’s most representative cultural form, is used for writing, exploring and questioning the local history of the city. In their writing of the past, Hong Kong directors such as Wong Kar-wai, Stanley Kwan and Tsui Hark have demonstrated alternative ways of historicizing Hong Kong. Despite their interests in different periods of time (Wong is obsessed with the 1960s; Kwan is attracted to the 1930s; Tsui often goes back to the early 20th century), all these directors use genres as their time machines to revisit the past. As a popular cultural form, genres always come with a series of ideologies which define our lives and explain the society. Hence, in a changing society, genres change and complicate themselves with different packages of meanings. Genres function as open-ended and corrigible schemata which can contain multiple themes and various meanings. In Hong Kong, genres, often seen as highly commercial and overly market-oriented, are opportunities for alternative history writing and the exploration of local identities. This paper examines how these Hong Kong directors use the popular forms of genres, such as melodrama, martial art and gangster films, to present the past, and how the stories of the fictional characters, such as prostitutes, martial artists and jobless hooligans mobilize imagination of history. These texts show that genre is a crucial platform for Hong Kong’s post-colonial self-writing. Via genres, history in these films is against official and canonical history as well as grand narrative. Genres as time machines articulate a voice for Hong Kong.

Keywords: Hong Kong cinema, genre, historicizing, local history, Wong Kar-Wai

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Authors: P. Chang, C. Lopez, C. Burbano

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Flood protection zones are riparian buffers that are formed to manage and mitigate the impact of flooding, and in turn, protect local populations. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the Guía Técnica de Criterios para el Acotamiento de las Rondas Hídricas in Colombia against international regulations in Canada and Spain, in order to determine its limitations and contribute to its improvement. The need to establish a specific corridor that allows for the dynamic development of a river is clear; however, limitations present in the Colombian Technical Guide are identified. The study shows that international regulations provide similar concepts as used in Colombia, but additionally integrate aspects such as regionalization that allows for a better characterization of the channel way, and incorporate the frequency of flooding and its probability of occurrence in the concept of risk when determining the protection zone. The case study analyzed in Dosquebradas - Risaralda aimed at comparing the application of the different standards through hydraulic modeling. It highlights that the current Colombian standard does not offer sufficient details in its implementation phase, which leads to a false sense of security related to inaccuracy and lack of data. Furthermore, the study demonstrates how the Colombian norm is ill-adapted to the conditions of Dosquebradas typical of the Andes region, both in the social and hydraulic aspects, and does not reduce the risk, nor does it improve the protection of the population. Our study considers it pertinent to include risk estimation as an integral part of the methodology when establishing protect flood zone, considering the particularity of water systems, as they are characterized by an heterogeneous natural dynamic behavior.

Keywords: environmental corridor, flood zone determination, hydraulic domain, legislation flood protection zone

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Authors: Michael Kenomore, Mohamed Hassan, Amjad Shah, Hom Dhakal

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Shale gas reservoirs have been of greater importance compared to shale oil reservoirs since 2009 and with the current nature of the oil market, understanding the technical and economic performance of shale gas reservoirs is of importance. Using the Barnett shale as a case study, an economic model was developed to quantify the effect of finding and development costs and gas prices on the basins in the Barnett shale using net present value as an evaluation parameter. A rate of return of 20% and a payback period of 60 months or less was used as the investment hurdle in the model. The Barnett was split into four basins (Strawn Basin, Ouachita Folded Belt, Forth-worth Syncline and Bend-arch Basin) with analysis conducted on each of the basin to provide a holistic outlook. The dataset consisted of only horizontal wells that started production from 2008 to at most 2015 with 1835 wells coming from the strawn basin, 137 wells from the Ouachita folded belt, 55 wells from the bend-arch basin and 724 wells from the forth-worth syncline. The data was analyzed initially on Microsoft Excel to determine the estimated ultimate recoverable (EUR). The range of EUR from each basin were loaded in the Palisade Risk software and a log normal distribution typical of Barnett shale wells was fitted to the dataset. Monte Carlo simulation was then carried out over a 1000 iterations to obtain a cumulative distribution plot showing the probabilistic distribution of EUR for each basin. From the cumulative distribution plot, the P10, P50 and P90 EUR values for each basin were used in the economic model. Gas production from an individual well with a EUR similar to the calculated EUR was chosen and rescaled to fit the calculated EUR values for each basin at the respective percentiles i.e. P10, P50 and P90. The rescaled production was entered into the economic model to determine the effect of the finding and development cost and gas price on the net present value (10% discount rate/year) as well as also determine the scenario that satisfied the proposed investment hurdle. The finding and development costs used in this paper (assumed to consist only of the drilling and completion costs) were £1 million, £2 million and £4 million while the gas price was varied from $2/MCF-$13/MCF based on Henry Hub spot prices from 2008-2015. One of the major findings in this study was that wells in the bend-arch basin were least economic, higher gas prices are needed in basins containing non-core counties and 90% of the Barnet shale wells were not economic at all finding and development costs irrespective of the gas price in all the basins. This study helps to determine the percentage of wells that are economic at different range of costs and gas prices, determine the basins that are most economic and the wells that satisfy the investment hurdle.

Keywords: shale gas, Barnett shale, unconventional gas, estimated ultimate recoverable

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Authors: Razia Anjum, Zaqia Bano, Chan Wai

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Temperament has been described as a multifaceted and potentially value-laden construct in literature but there is scarcity of research work in area of forensic psychology predominantly in south Asian countries. Present exposition explored the mediated effect of temperament towards the childhood maltreatment and delinquency. Further the moderated effect of prisoner’s age and education will be examined. Variable System for Windows 1.3 version was used to analyze the data provided by 517 prisoners (407 males, 110 females) from four districts prisons situated at Pakistan. Cross sectional research design was used in this study and representative sample was approached through purposive sampling technique. Only those prisoners were the part of study who maltreated in their childhood in form of physical abuse, psychological abuse, sexual abuse or experienced the emotional neglect. After exploration the childhood adversities through ‘Child Abuse Self-Report Scale’, then the prisoner’s temperament styles were explored through ‘Adult Temperament Scale’. Later on, the investigation with particular to the delinquent behaviors was carried out. The findings suggested that the presence of four temperamental styles (choleric, melancholic, phlegmatic, and sanguine) mediated the childhood maltreatment-delinquency relationship in late adulthood but not in early adulthood. Marked exploration was the significant moderated effect of Prisoner’s age and their level of education that effect the relationship of temperament towards the childhood maltreatment and the delinquency, in this way results are consistent with views on cumulative pathways to delinquency that undergone through the effect of childhood maltreatment. Results indicated that Choleric, Melancholic temperament was the positive predictor of delinquency, whereas. The Phlegmatic and Sanguine temperament were the negative predictor of delinquency, in this way, different types of temperament left an indelible trace on delinquency that can work out by modifying the individual temperament. On the basis of results, it could be concluded that inclination towards the delinquent behaviors including theft, drug abuse, lying, noncompliance behavior, police encounter, violence, cheating, gambling, harassment, homosexuality and heterosexuality could be minimized if properly screen out the temperament. Moreover, study determined the two other significant moderated effect of age towards the involvement in delinquent behaviors and moderated effect of education towards childhood maltreatment and the temperament. Findings suggested that with marked increase in number of years in age the probability to get involve in delinquent behaviors will decrease and the result was consistent with the assumption that education can work as buffered to maximize or minimize the effect of trauma and can shape the temperament accordingly. Results are consistent with views on cumulative disadvantage with the socio-psychological faultiness of community.

Keywords: delinquent behaviors, temperament, prisoners, moderated mediation analysis

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Authors: Suman

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In the continuous interaction between the past and the present that historiography is, each time when history gets re/written, a new representation emerges. This new representation is a reflection of the earlier archives and their interpretations, fragmented remembrances of the past, as well as the reactions to the present. Memory, or lack thereof, and stereotyping generally play a major role in this representation. William Dalrymple’s Nine Lives: In Search of the Sacred in Modern India (2009) is one such written account that sets out to narrate the representations of religion and culture of India and contemporary reactions to it. Dalrymple’s nine saints belong to different castes, sects, religions, and regions. By dealing with their religions and expressions of those religions, and through the lived mysticism of these nine individuals, the book engages with some important issues like class, caste and gender in the contexts provided by historical as well as present India. The paper studies the development of religion and accompanied feeling of religiosity in modern as well as historical contexts through a study of these elements in the book. Since, the language used in creation of texts and the literary texts thus produced create a new reality that questions the stereotypes of the past, and in turn often end up creating new stereotypes or stereotypical representations at times, the paper seeks to actively engage with the text in order to identify and study such stereotypes, along with their changing representations. Through a detailed examination of the book, the paper seeks to unravel whether some socio-cultural stereotypes existed earlier, and whether there is development of new stereotypes from Dalrymple’s point of view as an outsider writing on issues that are deeply rooted in the cultural milieu of the country. For this analysis, the paper takes help from the psycho-literary theories of stereotyping and representation.

Keywords: stereotyping, representation, William Dalrymple, religion

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Authors: J. R. Wang, H. C. Chen, C. Shih, S. W. Chen, J. H. Yang, Y. Chiang

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In this study, we focus on the establishment of the analysis model for Maanshan PWR nuclear power plant (NPP) by using RADTRAD and SNAP codes with the FSAR, manuals, and other data. In order to evaluate the cumulative dose at the Exclusion Area Boundary (EAB) and Low Population Zone (LPZ) outer boundary, Maanshan NPP RADTRAD/SNAP model was used to perform the analysis of the DBA LOCA case. The analysis results of RADTRAD were similar to FSAR data. These analysis results were lower than the failure criteria of 10 CFR 100.11 (a total radiation dose to the whole body, 250 mSv; a total radiation dose to the thyroid from iodine exposure, 3000 mSv).

Keywords: RADionuclide, transport, removal, and dose estimation (RADTRAD), symbolic nuclear analysis package (SNAP), dose, PWR

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Authors: Krystal Wang, Chongzheng Wei, Runsen Chen, Shufang Sun

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Suicide is a global public mental health issue and is the tenth leading cause of death globally. Approximately 75% of suicides occur in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). Compared to the general population, transgender and gender nonconforming (TGNC) young people have higher suicidal risks. Research has shown that the prevalence of suicidal behaviors among TGNC populations was high in both the United States and China. However, studies were mostly embedded within Western cultures. Limited data and research were available to assess suicidal behaviors among TGNC youth in LMIC countries and to consider various types of TGNC youth. The goal of the current project is to 1) investigate the prevalence of lifetime and past-year suicidal ideations, plans, and attempts among Chinese TGNC youth, 2) explore the relationship between gender identity and suicidal outcomes among TGNC youth in China, 3) identify individual, school, and family level risk and protective factors for suicidal behaviors. The study used data from a cross-sectional survey conducted by Beijing LGBTQ Center in 2021. The survey was the largest TGNC population study in China to understand the health conditions of TGNC individuals. Of the 7612 individuals who completed the survey, a total of 5632 youth (aged 10 to 19) was included in the final analysis. 2259 (40.11%) participants were categorized as transfeminine youth, 1034 (18.36%) as transmasculine youth, 1169 (20.76%) as nonbinary youth AFAB, 568 (10.09%) as nonbinary youth AMAB, 344 (6.11%) as questioning youth AFAB and 258 (4.58%) as questioning youth AMAB. Suicidal behaviors were assessed by asking about lifetime suicidal ideation and attempts, past 12 months suicidal ideation, plan and attempts, and suicidal methods. To achieve the aims, we conducted statistical analysis in Stata/SE 17.0 to 1) describe the prevalence of suicidal outcomes and 2) assess the relationship between gender identity and suicidal outcomes by performing crosstabs, bivariate and multivariate logistic regressions, and adjusting for covariates. The lifetime prevalence of suicidal ideations and attempts for the whole sample was 85.13% and 51.7%. Transfeminine youth had a significantly higher risk for lifetime suicidal ideations (Odds Ratios (OR) = 1.67, CI:1.28,2.18) and attempts than transmasculine youth (OR=1.66, CI: 1.35,2.03), adjusting for age and past year binge drinking, known risk factors of suicide behavior. Past-year prevalence of suicidal behaviors was also high among TGNC youth, with 75.69% in suicidal ideation, 88.77% in suicidal plans, and 57.96% in suicidal attempts. Transfeminine youth, among six subgroups, had the highest risk for past-year suicidal ideations and attempts compared to transmasculine youth. Non-binary youth, regardless of sex assigned at birth, also had a significantly higher risk for suicidal ideations. The prevalence of lifetime and past-year suicidal behaviors was alarming among TGNC youth in China. Among different categories of TGNC youth, transfeminine youth reported the most elevated suicidal risk. The findings indicated a compelling need for researchers and practitioners to address the mental health risks for this specific group and target interventions for TGNC youth in China.

Keywords: child and adolescent mental health, gender minority health, cross-cultural perspective, preventing suicide in youth

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Authors: Adeola Ayodele Oluwabiyi

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The study undertook an in depth examination of the relevant sections of the Nigerian Constitution and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Act as it relates to the appointment and removal of the CBN Governor; It analysed the Constitutional issues that arose from the removal of the immediate past Governor of the CBN; and made recommendations as appropriate. The study relied on primary and secondary sources of information. The primary sources included the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, Statutes, Conventions and Judicial decisions, while the secondary sources included Books, Journals Articles, Newspapers and Internet Materials. The study revealed that the removal of the CBN Governor was not in accordance with the Nigerian Constitution and the CBN Act that Guarantee such. It also revealed some of the arguments in support of the removal. The study concluded that the removal of the immediate past Governor of CBN was an outright disregard for the rule of law. The study concluded that if Government treat the laws in question with levity and contempt the confidence of the citizens in such government will be seriously eroded and the effect of that will be the beginning of anarchy in replacement of the rule of law. It could also have serious economic implications on the economy of any nation.

Keywords: central bank, governor, laws, Nigeria

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Authors: Lennart Dimberg, Lala Joulha Ian

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Introduction: Overweight (BMI 25-30) and obesity (BMI 30+) have consistently been associated with cardiovascular (CV) risk and death since the Framingham heart study in 1948, and BMI was included in the original Framingham risk score (FRS). Background: Myocardial infarction (MI) poses a serious threat to the patient's life. In addition to BMI, several other indices of overweight have been presented and argued to replace FRS as more relevant measures of CV risk. These indices include waist circumference (WC), waist/hip ratio (WHR), sagittal abdominal diameter (SAD), and sagittal abdominal diameter to height (SADHtR). Specific research question: The research question of this study is to evaluate the interrelationship between the various body measurements, BMI, WC, WHR, SAD, and SADHtR, and which measurement is strongly associated with MI and death. Methods: In 1993, 1,000 middle-aged Caucasian, randomly selected working men of the Swedish Volvo-Renault cohort were surveyed at a nurse-led health examination with a questionnaire, EKG, laboratory tests, blood pressure, height, weight, waist, and sagittal abdominal diameter measurements. Outcome data of myocardial infarction over 28 years come from Swedeheart (the Swedish national myocardial infarction registry) and the Swedish death registry. The Aalen-Johansen and Kaplan–Meier methods were used to estimate the cumulative incidences of MI and death. Multiple logistic regression analyses were conducted to compare BMI with the other four body measurements. The risk for the various measures of obesity was calculated with outcomes of accumulated first-time myocardial infarction and death as odds ratios (OR) in quartiles. The ORs between the 4th and the 1st quartile of each measure were calculated to estimate the association between the body measurement variables and the probability of cumulative incidences of myocardial infarction (MI) over time. Double-sided P values below 0.05 will be considered statistically significant. Unadjusted odds ratios were calculated for obesity indicators, MI, and death. Adjustments for age, diabetes, SBP, and the ratio of total cholesterol/HDL-C and blue/white collar status were performed. Results: Out of 1000 people, 959 subjects had full information about the five different body measurements. Of those, 90 participants had a first MI, and 194 persons died. The study showed that there was a high and significant correlation between the five different body measurements, and they were all associated with CVD risk factors. All body measurements were significantly associated with MI, with the highest (OR=3.6) seen for SADHtR and WC. After adjustment, all but SADHtR remained significant with weaker ORs. As for all-cause mortality, WHR (OR=1.7), SAD (OR=1.9), and SADHtR (OR=1.6) were significantly associated, but not WC and BMI. However, after adjustment, only WHR and SAD were significantly associated with death, but with attenuated ORs.

Keywords: BMI, death, epidemiology, myocardial infarction, risk factor, sagittal abdominal diameter, sagittal abdominal diameter to height, waist circumference, waist-hip ratio

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Authors: Mostafa M. Ahmed, Kotaro Nose, Takashi Fujii, Toshiki Ayano

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The Study shed the light on the effects of employing varied curing agents (No.1-No.6): bleeding water, and sprinkling water, aqueous basic silica compound, modified acrylic resin, the emulsion of solid wax and nonionic surfactant, and water-based paraffin wax, on the properties of high-performance concrete (HPC) in comparison with the cured specimens according to the standard curing at 20 ± 3°C (JIS A 0203:2019). The specimens cured in accordance with standard curing exhibit a better compressive strength and higher freeze-thaw resistance compared to most non-standard-cured samples.

Keywords: curing agents, high-performance concrete, compressive strength, cumulative scaling, freeze-thaw resistance

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Authors: Mohammad Akram

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The aim of this study is to improve classroom management while teaching especially ESL/EFL. At the same time, it has been discussed about the standard of the students through some surveys held in Jazan University in the month of February and March, 2013. The present research is a classroom action-oriented study. The subject of the study is mainly the students whose first language is not English at all. The study is prepared in one cycle that has planning, action, and reaction as well. Teachers of English as a second language/foreign language generally face numerous of unexpected problems while dealing with their students. To make the classes practical, meaningful, and easy like fun for the students is really a cumbersome task. It's a very practical move towards classroom ESL/EFL teaching if we want to apply anything new, I mean new policies, tactics, recent/smart teaching methodologies, we must peep into the hole of past because it will give us the best solution for the present strategies. We need to academically study the past of our students to make their present fruitful. Here, author wants to present a few important problematic issues like classroom management in the area of ESL/EFL while teaching ESL students. Impact these are suggestions to combat drawbacks of 'Classroom Teaching'. “Classroom management is to put into practice and a process through teaching and learning process”.

Keywords: global, teachers, perceptions, classroom, management, integrated, segregated, comprehension, productive

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Authors: Thomas A. Fuller

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Over the past fifteen years, virtual schooling has been introduced and implemented in varying degrees throughout the public education system in the United States. It is possible in some states for students to voluntarily take all of their course load online, without ever having to step in a classroom. Experts foresee a dramatic rise in the number of courses taken online by public school students in the United States, with some predicting that by 2019 as many as 50% of public high school courses will be delivered online. This electronic delivery of public education offers tremendous potential to the scientific community because it calls for innovation and is funded by public school revenue. Public accountability provides a ready supply of statistical data for measuring the progress of virtual schools as they are implemented into the public school arena. This allows for a survey of the current use of virtual schooling through examination of past statistical data, as well as forecasting forward for future years based upon this past data. Virtual schooling is on the rise in the United States, but its growth has been tempered by practical problems of implementation. The greatest and best use of virtual schooling thus far has been to supplement the courses offered by public schools (e.g., offering unique language courses, elective courses, and games-based math and science courses). The weaknesses of virtual schooling lay in the problematic accountability in allowing students to take courses online at home and the lack of supportive infrastructure in the public school arena. Virtual schooling holds great promise for the public school education system in the United States, as well as the scientific community. Online courses allow students access to a much greater catalog of courses than is offered through classroom instruction in their local public school. This promising sector needs assistance from the scientific community in implementing new pedagogical methodologies.

Keywords: virtual schools, online classroom, electronic delivery, technological innovation

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Authors: Jiya Mohammed, Tsadu Shuaib, Yusuf Abdulhakeem

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The research work focuses on the cases of MHD boundary layer flow past a stretching plate with heat transfer and viscous dissipation. The non-linear of momentum and energy equation are transform into ordinary differential equation by using similarity transformation, the resulting equation are solved using Adomian Decomposition Method (ADM). An attempt has been made to show the potentials and wide range application of the Adomian decomposition method in the comparison with the previous one in solving heat transfer problems. The Pade approximates value (η= 11[11, 11]) is use on the difficulty at infinity. The results are compared by numerical technique method. A vivid conclusion can be drawn from the results that ADM provides highly precise numerical solution for non-linear differential equations. The result where accurate especially for η ≤ 4, a general equating terms of Eckert number (Ec), Prandtl number (Pr) and magnetic parameter ( ) is derived which was used to investigate velocity and temperature profiles in boundary layer.

Keywords: MHD, Adomian decomposition, boundary layer, viscous dissipation

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Authors: Shin-Shin Kao

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This paper reviews the crucial situation in higher education in Taiwan due to the rapid decline of the birth rate in the past three decades, and how the government and local colleges/universities work to face the challenge. Recruiting international students is one of the possible ways to resolve the problem, but offering enough courses in English is one of the main obstacles when the majority of learners are still Taiwanese students. In the academic year of 2012, Chung Yuan Christian University determined to make its campus international and began to enforce two required courses for freshmen taught in English. It failed in the beginning, but succeeded in the following academic year of 2013. Using the teaching evaluations accumulated in the past three years, this paper aims to clarify the myths which had been bothering most faculties. It also offers some suggestions for college/university teachers interested in giving lectures in English to English as Second Language (ESL) learners. A conclusion is presented at the end of the paper, in which the author explained why Taiwanese students could learn their profession in English.

Keywords: calculus, English, teaching evaluation, teaching strategy, vocabulary

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Authors: Maria De Los Angeles Rodriguez Cadena

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This paper discusses how the fictional versions of women of the past contribute to advance today’s ideas of social justice, personal freedom and emancipation as well as to highlight the creative challenge of constructing people and events on fictional narratives on television that incorporate multiple and simultaneous layers of meaning and complexity. This project builds on existing scholarship on audiovisual texts by exploring an influential but under-studied director. In two Mexican television series, Patricia Arriaga Jordan, an award-winning television producer, scriptwriter and director, constructs the life of two outstanding women that have played an influential role in national history and captured Mexican’s popular imagination for generations: Sor Juana Inés de la Cruz, and Malinche. Malinche (2018) tells the story of an extraordinary indigenous woman, Malintzin, during the Spanish Conquest (1511-1550) that is considered to have played a key role in the fall of the Aztec empire by acting as translator, negotiator and cultural mediator for the Spanish conquerors. Juana Ines (2016) portrays Sor Juana, a poet, essayist, playwright, theologian, philosopher, nun, of XVII century colonial Mexico, one of the brightest minds of her time, and now recognized as the first feminist of the Americas who wrote on the rights of women to an education, religious authority and feminist advocacy. Both series, as fictional narratives that recreate defining historical periods, specific events and relevant characters in the History of Mexico can be read as an example of what is called texts of cultural memory. A cultural memory text is a narrative that bonds the concepts of history, identity and belonging, and that is realized and disseminated through symbolic systems such as written documents, visual images, and dramatic representation. Cultural memory, through its narratives of historical fiction, emphasizes memory processes (historiography) and its implications and artifacts (cultural memory) mainly through the medial frameworks of remembering, which are the medial process by which memories (narratives, documents) participate in public knowledge and become collective memory. Historical fiction on television not only creates a portrayal of the past related to the real lives of protagonists, but it also significantly contributes to understand the past as an ever-evolving entity that highlights both, the necessary connection with the present as part of a developing sense of collective identity and belonging, as well as the relevance of the medium in which the past is represented and that ultimately supports the process of historical awareness. Through the emblematic recreation of national heroines and historical events in the unique context of historical drama on television, those texts constitute a venue where concepts of the past and the traditionally established ideas about history and heroines are highlighted, questioned and transformed.

Keywords: cultural memory, historical fiction, Mexico, television, women directors

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Authors: Aaron Kim, Nydia Hernandez

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Despite the known deficits in sleep duration among adolescents and the increasing prevalence of substance use behaviors among this group, relatively little is known about how insufficient sleep is related to various substance use behaviors and the underlying mechanisms. Informed by the literature suggesting the predictive role of insufficient sleep for substance use and depressive symptoms, we hypothesized that adolescents who lack sufficient sleep during school nights would report a higher level of depressive symptoms and substance use than their counterparts with sufficient sleep. We also hypothesized that depressive symptoms would explain the association of insufficient sleep with substance use, suggesting that mental health plays an important role as a mechanism between insufficient sleep and substance use. This study used the data drawn from the 2019 Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System Data, which includes a nationally representative sample of U.S. high school students (N=13,677, 49.4% Female, 9th-12th graders). Self-report measures of insufficient sleep (sleeping<7 h on an average school night), depressive symptoms (yes/no), any past 30-day use of cigarette (yes/no), e-cigarette (yes/no), alcohol (yes/no), and marijuana (yes/no). Among the total sample, 47.9% of students reported that they did not have sufficient sleep on school nights, indicating sleeping less than 7 hours. Regarding depressive symptoms, 36.7% of students reported feeling sad or hopeless almost every day for two weeks or more in a row during the past 12 months. Also, the percentages of students who reported one or more times of cigarette use, e-cigarette use, alcohol use, and marijuana use in the past month were 5.32%, 30.11%, 26.83%, and 21.65%, respectively. For bivariate associations among these study variables, insufficient sleep was positively associated with other variables: depressive symptoms (r=.08, p<.001), cigarette use (r=.03, p<.001), e-cigarette use (r=.04, p<.001), alcohol use (r=.07, p<.001), and marijuana use (r=.08, p<.001). After controlling for students’ characteristics (i.e., age, gender, race/ethnicity, grades), sleeping less than 7 hours on school nights (vs. sleeping more than 7 hours) was significantly associated with the past 30-day use of alcohol and marijuana, whereas cigarette and e-cigarette uses were not. That is, the students who reported having an insufficient sleep on school nights had higher odds of alcohol (Odds Ratio [OR]=1.15, 95% Confidence Interval [CI]=1.014-1.301) and marijuana use (OR=1.36, 95% CI=1.132-1.543). In a subsequent analysis including depressive symptoms together with insufficient sleep, the association of insufficient sleep with alcohol use (OR=1.13, 95% CI=1.011-1.297) and marijuana use (OR=1.33, 95% CI=1.130-1.521) were attenuated and explained by depressive symptoms. Depressive symptoms significantly increased the odds of alcohol use by 32.2% (OR=1.32, 95% CI=1.131-1.557) and marijuana use by 202.1% (OR=2.02, 95% CI=1.672-2.502). These findings together suggest that insufficient sleep may contribute to increased risks of substance uses among adolescents. The current study also shows that psychological disorders of adolescents play important roles in understanding the association between insufficient sleep and substance use, suggesting insufficient sleep is related to substance use indirectly through depressive symptoms. This study indicates the importance of sleep deprivation among adolescents and screening for insufficient sleep in preventing/intervening in substance use.

Keywords: adolescents, depressive symptoms, sleep, substance use

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Authors: Dhanashree Moghe, Roberta Bullingham, Rizwan Ahmed, Tarun Singhal

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Aim: The NHS Bowel Screening Programme recommends the use of endoscopic tattooing for suspected malignant lesions that later require surgical or endoscopic localisation, using local protocols as guidance. This is in accordance with guidance from the BSG (The British Society of Gastroenterologists). We used a well-recognised local protocol as a standard to audit current tattooing practice in a large district general hospital with no current local guidelines. Method: A retrospective quantitative analysis of 50 patients who underwent segmental colonic resection for cancer over a 6-month period in 2021. We reviewed historic electronic endoscopy reports recording relevant data on tattoo indication and placement. Secondly, we carried out an anonymous survey of 16 independent lower GI endoscopists on self-reported details of their practice. Results: In our study, 28 patients (56%) had a tattoo placed at the time of their colonoscopy. Of these, only 53% (n=15) had the tattoo distal to the lesion, with the measured distance of the tattoo from the lesion only being documented in 8 reports. Only seven patients (25%) had a circumferential (4 quadrant) placement of the tattoo. 13 patients had lesions either in the caecum or rectum, locations deemed unnecessary as per BSG guidelines. Of the survey responses collected, there were four different protocols being used to guide practice. Only 50% of respondents placed tattoos at the correct distance from the lesion, and 83% placed the correct number of tattoos. Conclusion: There is a lack of standardisation of practices in colonic tattooing demonstrated in our study with incomplete compliance to our standard. The inadequate documentation of tattoo location can contribute to confusion and inaccuracy in the intraoperative localisation of lesions. This has the potential to increase operation length and morbidity. There is a need to standardise both technique and documentation in colonoscopic tattooing practice.

Keywords: colorectal cancer, endoscopic tattooing, colonoscopy, NHS BSCP

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Authors: Julaine Allan, Katarzyna Olcon, Padmini Pai, Lynne Keevers, Mim Fox, Maria Mackay, Ruth Everingham

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Effective local responses to community needs are grounded in contextual knowledge and build on existing resources. The Stability, Encompassing, Endurance & Direction (SEED) Wellbeing Program was created in 2020 in response to cumulative disasters, bushfires, floods and COVID, experienced by healthcare staff in the Illawarra Shoalhaven Local Health District, NSW Australia. SEED used a participatory action methodology to bring healthcare staff teams together to engage in restorative activities in the workplace. Guided by Practice Theory, this study identified the practices that supported the recovery of healthcare staff.

Keywords: mental health and wellbeing, workplace wellness, healthcare providers, natural disasters, COVID-19, burnout, occupational trauma

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Authors: Gou-Moon Choi, Woo-Young Jung, Chan-Young Yune

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Recently, the natural disaster has increased worldwide. In Korea, the damage to life and property caused by a typhoon, heavy rain, heavy snow, and an extreme wind also increases every year. Among natural disasters, the frequency and the strength of wind have increased because sea surface temperature has risen due to the increase of the average temperature of the Earth. In the case of extreme wind disaster, it is impossible to control or reduce the occurrence, and the recovery cost always exceeds the damage cost. Therefore, quantitative estimation of the damage cost for extreme wind needs to be established beforehand to install proactive countermeasures. In this study, the damage cost for private properties was analyzed based on the data for the past 10 years in Korea. The damage cost curve was also suggested for the metropolitan cities and provinces. The result shows the possibility for the regional application of the damage cost curve because the damage cost of the regional area is estimated based on the cost of cities and provinces.

Keywords: damage cost, extreme wind, natural disaster, private property

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Authors: Julaine Allan, Katarzyna Olcon, Padmini Pai, Lynne Keevers, Mim Fox, Maria Mackay, Ruth Everingham, Sue Cutmore, Chris Degeling, Kristine Falzon, Summer Finlay

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Effective local responses to community needs are grounded in contextual knowledge and built on existing resources. The SEED Wellbeing Program was created in 2020 in response to cumulative disasters, bushfires, floods and COVID experienced by healthcare staff in the Illawarra Shoalhaven Local Health District, NSW, Australia. SEED used a participatory action methodology to bring healthcare staff teams together to engage in restorative activities in the workplace. Guided by Practice Theory, this study identified the practices that supported the recovery of healthcare staff.

Keywords: mental health and wellbeing, workplace wellness, healthcare providers, natural disasters, COVID-19, burnout, occupational trauma

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Authors: S. Ajith Kumar, Vaisakh S. Rajan

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In external flows, vortex shedding behind the bluff bodies causes to experience unsteady loads on a large number of engineering structures, resulting in structural failure. Vortex shedding can even turn out to be disastrous like the Tacoma Bridge failure incident. We need to have control over vortex shedding to get rid of this untoward condition by reducing the unsteady forces acting on the bluff body. In circular cylinders, hydrophobic surface in an otherwise no-slip surface is found to be delaying separation and minimizes the effects of vortex shedding drastically. Flow over square cylinder stands different from this behavior as separation can takes place from either of the two corner separation points (front or rear). An attempt is made in this study to numerically elucidate the effect of hydrophobic surface in flow over a square cylinder. A 2D numerical simulation has been done to understand the effects of the slip surface on the flow past square cylinder. The details of the numerical algorithm will be presented at the time of the conference. A non-dimensional parameter, Knudsen number is defined to quantify the slip on the cylinder surface based on Maxwell’s equation. The slip surface condition of the wall affects the vorticity distribution around the cylinder and the flow separation. In the numerical analysis, we observed that the hydrophobic surface enhances the shedding frequency and damps down the amplitude of oscillations of the square cylinder. We also found that the slip has a negative effect on aerodynamic force coefficients such as the coefficient of lift (CL), coefficient of drag (CD) etc. and hence replacing the no slip surface by a hydrophobic surface can be treated as an effective drag reduction strategy and the introduction of hydrophobic surface could be utilized for reducing the vortex induced vibrations (VIV) and is found as an effective method in controlling VIV thereby controlling the structural failures.

Keywords: drag reduction, flow past square cylinder, flow control, hydrophobic surfaces, vortex shedding

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