Search results for: conditional expectation

Authors: Araujo J. F. Marina, Araujo F. Marcus Vinicius, Mulinari R. Daniella

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Due to the resultant leachate from waste decomposition in landfills has polluter potential hundred times greater than domestic sewage, this is considered a problem related to the depreciation of environment requiring pre-disposal treatment. In seeking to improve this situation, this project proposes the treatment of landfill leachate using natural fibers intercropped with advanced oxidation processes. The selected natural fibers were palm, coconut and banana fiber. These materials give sustainability to the project because, besides having adsorbent capacity, are often part of waste discarded. The study was conducted in laboratory scale. In trials, the effluents were characterized as Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD), Turbidity and Color. The results indicate that is technically promising since that there were extremely oxidative conditions, the use of certain natural fibers in the reduction of pollutants in leachate have been obtained results of COD removals between 67.9% and 90.9%, Turbidity between 88.0% and 99.7% and Color between 67.4% and 90.4%. The expectation generated is to continue evaluating the association of efficiency of other natural fibers with other landfill leachate treatment processes.

Keywords: lndfill leachate, chemical treatment, natural fibers, advanced oxidation processes

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Authors: Chayanika Hazarika Bordoloi

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This paper is an attempt to work on a highly inflectional language called Assamese. This is also one of the national languages of India and very little has been achieved in terms of computational research. Building a language processing tool for a natural language is not very smooth as the standard and language representation change at various levels. This paper presents inflectional suffixes of Assamese verbs and how the statistical tools, along with linguistic features, can improve the tagging accuracy. Conditional random fields (CRF tool) was used to automatically tag and train the text data; however, accuracy was improved after linguistic featured were fed into the training data. Assamese is a highly inflectional language; hence, it is challenging to standardizing its morphology. Inflectional suffixes are used as a feature of the text data. In order to analyze the inflections of Assamese word forms, a list of suffixes is prepared. This list comprises suffixes, comprising of all possible suffixes that various categories can take is prepared. Assamese words can be classified into inflected classes (noun, pronoun, adjective and verb) and un-inflected classes (adverb and particle). The corpus used for this morphological analysis has huge tokens. The corpus is a mixed corpus and it has given satisfactory accuracy. The accuracy rate of the tagger has gradually improved with the modified training data.

Keywords: CRF, morphology, tagging, tagset

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Authors: Shamm Kidane, Ibrahim Abdella, Fitsum Gaim, Simon Mulugeta, Sirak Asmerom, Natnael Ambasager, Yoel Ghebrihiwot

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The call for natural language processing (NLP) systems for low-resource languages has become more apparent than ever in the past few years, with the arduous challenges still present in preparing such systems. This paper presents an improved dataset version of the Nagaoka Tigrinya Corpus for Parts-of-Speech (POS) classification system in the Tigrinya language. The size of the initial Nagaoka dataset was incremented, totaling the new tagged corpus to 118K tokens, which comprised the 12 basic POS annotations used previously. The additional content was also annotated manually in a stringent manner, followed similar rules to the former dataset and was formatted in CONLL format. The system made use of the novel approach in NLP tasks and use of the monolingually pre-trained TiELECTRA, TiBERT and TiRoBERTa transformer models. The highest achieved score is an impressive weighted F1-score of 94.2%, which surpassed the previous systems by a significant measure. The system will prove useful in the progress of NLP-related tasks for Tigrinya and similarly related low-resource languages with room for cross-referencing higher-resource languages.

Keywords: Tigrinya POS corpus, TiBERT, TiRoBERTa, conditional random fields

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Authors: Siqi Qiu, Yijian Zheng, Xin Guo Ming

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In many reliability and risk analysis, failures of components are supposed to be independent. However, in reality, the ignorance of failure dependencies among components may render the results of reliability and risk analysis incorrect. There are two principal ways to incorporate failure dependencies in system reliability and risk analysis: implicit and explicit methods. In the implicit method, failure dependencies can be modeled by joint probabilities, correlation values or conditional probabilities. In the explicit method, certain types of dependencies can be modeled in a fault tree as mutually independent basic events for specific component failures. In this paper, explicit and implicit methods based on BDD will be proposed to evaluate the reliability of systems considering failure dependencies. The obtained results prove the equivalence of the proposed implicit and explicit methods. It is found that the consideration of failure dependencies decreases the reliability of systems. This observation is intuitive, because more components fail due to failure dependencies. The consideration of failure dependencies helps designers to reduce the dependencies between components during the design phase to make the system more reliable.

Keywords: reliability assessment, risk assessment, failure dependencies, binary decision diagram

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Authors: Hüseyin Biçer

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The purpose of this study is an explanation of using and expectation traditional and complementary medicine in Turkey in terms of regionally, cultural and social. Due to geopolitics position, at the intersection of the Middle East, Africa and Europe, Turkey has historically hosted many civilizations and cultures, and hosts many religions at the same time and therefore is very open to intercultural interaction. For this reason, the traditional medicine of Turkey contains traces of many civilizations rather than a traditional medicine of its own. In Turkey, complementary and traditional medicine are used actively. The aim of the study is to measure whether the patients have ever taken traditional medicine as a caretaker or for the supportive treatment of their diseases, and as a result, their expectations. This cross-sectional, paper-based survey study was conducted in 27 state hospitals and 29 family medicine clinics in seven geographical regions of Turkey. Patients who had an appointment in the waiting rooms that day were included. 77.4% of the patients participating in the study stated that they used traditional medicine at least 5 times in their life, 27.6% stated that traditional medicine was sufficient in some diseases, and 36.8% stated that traditional treatment was a part of normal treatment. Both faith and cultural approaches in Turkey always keep traditional medicine close to drugs. Another danger, apart from traditional medicine drugs that can interact with drugs, is that patients find it sufficient to use traditional and complementary medicine alone.

Keywords: complementary medicine, traditional medicine, medicine in Turkey, alternative medicine

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Authors: Adesina Nathaniel Olanrewaju

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The motivation behind this study is the need to see strategic leadership as one of the key driving forces for improving corporate performance. Strategic leadership is seen as a potent source of management development and sustained competitive advantage for both employee and organizational performance. There is currently a charge on leaders as a major cause of organizational failure. Stakeholders give what they can afford, not necessarily what the organization needs and impose operational and financial decisions on the leaders, 200 respondents were fit for the analysis from the six geo-political regions in Nigeria. The selection was done equally among various parastatals through random sampling technique from the south-south, south-east, south-west, north-east, north-west and north-central. A descriptive research of the survey was employed. The data were subjected to t-test analysis and correlation and regression were used for the analysis. The findings revealed that there is a strong relationship and impact between a strategic leader and corporate performance. Recommendations were made based on the findings that strategic leaders should be given the blueprint, company’s policy and the stakeholders’ expectation within a time frame the work is to be carried out.

Keywords: time, strategic, organization, stakeholder, leader, performance

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Authors: Gultekin Gurcay

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It is known that the most crucial influence of the psychological, social and emotional factors that affect any human behavior is to corrupt the rational decision making mechanism of the individuals and cause them to display irrational behaviors. In this regard, the social context of human beings influences the rationality of our decisions, and people tend to display different behaviors when they were alone compared to when they were surrounded by others. At this point, the interaction and interdependence of the behavioral finance and economics with the area of social psychology comes, where intentions and the behaviors of the individuals are being analyzed in the actual or implied presence of others comes into prominence. Within the context of this study, the prevalent theories of behavioral finance, which are The Prospect Theory, The Utility Theory Given Uncertainty and the Five Axioms of Choice under Uncertainty, Veblen’s Hidden Utility Theory, and the concept of ‘Overreaction’ has been examined and demonstrated; and the meaning, existence and validity of these theories together with the social context has been assessed. Finally, in this study the behavior of the individuals in financial crisis situations where the majority of the society is being affected from the same negative conditions at the same time has been analyzed, by taking into account how individual behavior will change according to the presence of the others.

Keywords: conditional variance coefficient, financial crisis, garch model, stock market

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Authors: Numtana Ladplee, Cherif Haberih

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The value of service evaluation depends critically on guests’ understanding of the evaluation objectives and their roles. The present research presents a three-phase investigation of the impact of evaluating participants’ theories about their roles: (a) identifying the theories, (b) testing the process consequences of participants’ role theories, and (c) gaining insights into the impact of participants’ role theories by testing key moderator/s. The findings of this study will hopefully indicate that (a) when forewarned of an upcoming evaluation task, consumers tend to believe that the evaluation objective is to identify aspects that need improvement, (b) this expectation produces a conscious attempt to identify negative aspects, although the encoding of attribute information is not affected, and (c) cognitive load during the evaluation experience greatly decreases the negativity of expected evaluations. The present study can be applied to other market research techniques and thereby improve our understanding of consumer inputs derived from market research. Such insights can help diminish biases produced by participants’ correct or incorrect theories regarding their roles.

Keywords: fulfillment, hotel guests, service, Thailand

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Authors: Anandita Mitro, Archana Srivastava, Bidisha Banerjee

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The present paper attempts to analyze the hierarchy and interconnection of factors responsible for the uptake of BCG vaccination in India. The study uses National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5) data which was conducted during 2019-21. The univariate logistic regression method is used to understand the univariate effects while the interconnection effects have been studied using the Categorical Inference Tree (CIT) which is a non-parametric Machine Learning (ML) model. The hierarchy of the factors is further established using Conditional Inference Forest which is an extension of the CIT approach. The results suggest that BCG vaccination coverage was influenced more by system-level factors and awareness than education or socio-economic status. Factors such as place of delivery, antenatal care, and postnatal care were crucial, with variations based on delivery location. Region-specific differences were also observed which could be explained by the factors. Awareness of the disease was less impactful along with the factor of wealth and urban or rural residence, although awareness did appear to substitute for inadequate ANC. Thus, from the policy point of view, it is revealed that certain subpopulations have less prevalence of vaccination which implies that there is a need for population-specific policy action to achieve a hundred percent coverage.

Keywords: vaccination, NFHS, machine learning, public health

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Authors: Ifedapo Francis Awolowo

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The unrelenting series of embarrassing audit failures should stimulate a paradigm shift in accounting. And in this age of information revolution, there is need for a constant improvement on the products or services one offers to the market in order to be relevant. This study explores the perceptions of external auditors, forensic accountants and accounting academics on whether a paradigm shift to forensic accounting can reduce financial statement frauds. Through Neo-empiricism/inductive analytical approach, findings reveal that a paradigm shift to forensic accounting might be the right step in the right direction in order to increase the chances of fraud prevention and detection in the financial statement. This research has implication on accounting education on the need to incorporate forensic accounting into present day accounting curriculum. Accounting professional bodies, accounting standard setters and accounting firms all have roles to play in incorporating forensic accounting education into accounting curriculum. Particularly, there is need to alter the ISA 240 to make the prevention and detection of frauds the responsibilities of bot those charged with the management and governance of companies and statutory auditors.

Keywords: financial statement fraud, forensic accounting, fraud prevention and detection, auditing, audit expectation gap, corporate governance

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Authors: Saeedeh Shafiee Nahrkhalaji

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Metacognitive knowledge increases EFL students’ ability to be successful learners. Although this relationship has been investigated by a number of scholars, EFL teachers’ explicit awareness of their cognitive knowledge has not been sufficiently explored. The aim of this study was to examine the role of EFL teachers’ metacognitive knowledge in their pedagogical performance. Furthermore, the role played by years of their academic education and teaching experience was also studied. Fifty female EFL teachers were selected. They completed Metacognitive Awareness Inventory (MAI) that assessed six components of metacognition including procedural knowledge, declarative knowledge, conditional knowledge, planning, evaluating, and management strategies. Near the end of the academic semester, the students of each class filled in ‘the Language Teacher Characteristics Questionnaire’ to evaluate their teachers’ pedagogical performance. Four elements of MAI, declarative knowledge, planning, evaluating, and management strategies were found to be significantly correlated with EFL teachers’ pedagogical success. Significant correlation was also established between metacognitive knowledge and EFL teachers’ years of academic education and teaching experience. The findings obtained from this research have contributing implication for EFL teacher educators. The discussion concludes by setting out directions for future research.

Keywords: metacognotive knowledge, pedagogical performance, language teacher characteristics questionnaire, metacognitive awareness inventory

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Authors: Tetsuji Tanaka, Jin Guo

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The extant literature has not succeeded in uncovering the common determinants of price volatility transmissions of agricultural commodities from international to local markets, and further, has rarely investigated the role of self-sufficiency measures in the context of national food security. We analyzed various factors to determine the degree of price volatility transmissions of wheat, rice, and maize between world and domestic markets using GARCH models with dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) specifications and panel-feasible generalized least square models. We found that the grain autarky system has the potential to diminish volatility pass-throughs for three grain commodities. Furthermore, it was discovered that the substitutive commodity consumption behavior between maize and wheat buffers the volatility transmissions of both, but rice does not function as a transmission-relieving element, either for the volatilities of wheat or maize. The effectiveness of grain consumption substitution to insulate the pass-throughs from global markets is greater than that of cereal self-sufficiency. These implications are extremely beneficial for developing governments to protect their domestic food markets from uncertainty in foreign countries and as such, improves food security.

Keywords: food security, GARCH, grain self-sufficiency, volatility transmission

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Authors: Matthew David Marmet

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Knowing your audience is important regardless of what profession you are in. Whether this audience is comprised of customers or students, having an idea of who these people are, where they come from, and some of the challenges they may have faced allows us to build better relationships with them. This paper will recap a field study experience that has been dubbed a "reverse field trip" to a local high school. Here, going back in time produced not only a great deal of nostalgia, but also served as a reminder of who prospective university students are before they arrive. This information is invaluable as it can help inform classroom (and other) strategies that may help them succeed, and persist through the college years, which will no doubt present them with undeniable changes and challenges. Interviews with school staff and observations of student behavior, both inside and outside the classroom, yielded several lessons learned (i.e., issues to address). These include considerations of regimen, three separate yet related levels of context, and expectation-setting. Each issue will be presented in detail, along with pedagogical strategies to help address them. These strategies have both student-level and institutional benefits as they have the potential not only to increase student engagement, but also improve retention rates.

Keywords: pedagogy, Student engagement, student retention, teaching strategy

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Authors: Andrew Laming, John Hattie, Mark Wilson

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Nine Queensland Independent high schools provided deidentified student-matched ATAR and NAPLAN data for all 1217 ATAR graduates since 2020 who also sat NAPLAN at the school. Graduating cohorts from the nine schools contained a mean 100 ATAR graduates with previous NAPLAN data from their school. Excluded were vocational students (mean=27) and any ATAR graduates without NAPLAN data (mean=20). Based on Index of Community Socio-Educational Access (ICSEA) prediction, all schools had larger that predicted proportions of their students graduating with ATARs. There were an additional 173 students not releasing their ATARs to their school (14%), requiring this data to be inferred by schools. Gain was established by first converting each student’s strongest NAPLAN domain to a statewide percentile, then subtracting this result from final ATAR. The resulting ‘percentile shift’ was corrected for plausible ATAR participation at each NAPLAN level. Strongest NAPLAN domain had the highest correlation with ATAR (R2=0.58). RESULTS School mean NAPLAN scores fitted ICSEA closely (R2=0.97). Schools achieved a mean cohort gain of two ATAR rankings, but only 66% of students gained. This ranged from 46% of top-NAPLAN decile students gaining, rising to 75% achieving gains outside the top decile. The 54% of top-decile students whose ATAR fell short of prediction lost a mean 4.0 percentiles (or 6.2 percentiles prior to correction for regression to the mean). 71% of students in smaller schools gained, compared to 63% in larger schools. NAPLAN variability in each of the 13 ICSEA1100 cohorts was 17%, with both intra-school and inter-school variation of these values extremely low (0.3% to 1.8%). Mean ATAR change between years in each school was just 1.1 ATAR ranks. This suggests consecutive school cohorts and ICSEA-similar schools share very similar distributions and outcomes over time. Quantile analysis of the NAPLAN/ATAR revealed heteroscedasticity, but splines offered little additional benefit over simple linear regression. The NAPLAN/ATAR R2 was 0.33. DISCUSSION Standardised data like NAPLAN and ATAR offer educators a simple no-cost progression metric to analyse performance in conjunction with their internal test results. Change is expressed in percentiles, or ATAR shift per student, which is layperson intuitive. Findings may also reduce ATAR/vocational stream mismatch, reveal proportions of cohorts meeting or falling short of expectation and demonstrate by how much. Finally, ‘crashed’ ATARs well below expectation are revealed, which schools can reasonably work to minimise. The percentile shift method is neither value-add nor a growth percentile. In the absence of exit NAPLAN testing, this metric is unable to discriminate academic gain from legitimate ATAR-maximizing strategies. But by controlling for ICSEA, ATAR proportion variation and student mobility, it uncovers progression to ATAR metrics which are not currently publicly available. However achieved, ATAR maximisation is a sought-after private good. So long as standardised nationwide data is available, this analysis offers useful analytics for educators and reasonable predictivity when counselling subsequent cohorts about their ATAR prospects.  

Keywords: NAPLAN, ATAR, analytics, measurement, gain, performance, data, percentile, value-added, high school, numeracy, reading comprehension, variability, regression to the mean

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Authors: Elnaz Bandeh

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This study aimed to predict marital burnout based on irrational beliefs and sexual dysfunction of couples. The research method was descriptive-correlational, and the statistical population included all couples who consulted to counseling clinics in the fall of 2016. The sample consisted of 200 people who were selected by convenience sampling and answered the Ahwaz Irrational Beliefs Questionnaire, Pines Couple Burnout, and Hudson Marital Satisfaction Questionnaire. The data were analyzed using regression coefficient. The results of regression analysis showed that there was a linear relationship between irrational beliefs and couple burnout and dimensions of helplessness toward change, expectation of approval from others, and emotional irresponsibility were positive and significant predictors of couple burnout. However, after avoiding the problem of power, it was not a significant predictor of marital dissatisfaction. There was also a linear relationship between sexual dysfunction and couple burnout, and sexual dysfunction was a positive and significant predictor of couple burnout. Based on the findings, it can be concluded that irrational beliefs and sexual dysfunction play a role in couple dysfunction.

Keywords: couple burnout, irrational beliefs, sexual dysfunction, marital relationship

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Authors: Wook-Won Kim, Je-Seok Shin, Jin-O Kim

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As the penetration of Energy Storage System (ESS) increases in the power system due to higher performance and lower cost than ever, ESS is expanding its role to the ancillary service as well as the storage of extra energy from the intermittent renewable energy resources. For multi-ESS with different capacity and SOC level each other, it is required to make the optimal schedule of SOC level use the multi-ESS effectively. This paper proposes the energy allocation method for the multiple battery ESS with reliability constraint, in order to make the ESS discharge the required energy as long as possible. A simple but effective method is proposed in this paper, to satisfy the power for the spinning reserve requirement while improving the system reliability. Modelling of ESS is also proposed, and reliability is evaluated by using the combined reliability model which includes the proposed ESS model and conventional generation one. In the case study, it can be observed that the required power is distributed to each ESS adequately and accordingly, the SOC is scheduled to improve the reliability indices such as Loss of Load Probability (LOLP) and Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE).

Keywords: multiple energy storage system (MESS), energy allocation method, SOC schedule, reliability constraints

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Authors: Cian O'Shea, Ross O'Halloran, Peter Haigh

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Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN) are Internet of Things (IoT) edge devices. They are becoming widely adopted in many industries, including health care, building energy management, and conditional monitoring. As the scale of WSN deployments increases, the cost and complexity of battery replacement and disposal become more significant and in time may become a barrier to adoption. Harvesting ambient energies provide a pathway to reducing dependence on batteries and in the future may lead to autonomously powered sensors. This work describes a simulation tool that enables the user to predict the battery life of a wireless sensor that utilizes energy harvesting to supplement the battery power. To create this simulator, all aspects of a typical WSN edge device were modelled including, sensors, transceiver, and microcontroller as well as the energy source components (batteries, solar cells, thermoelectric generators (TEG), supercapacitors and DC/DC converters). The tool allows the user to plug and play different pre characterized devices as well as add user-defined devices. The goal of this simulation tool is to predict the lifetime of a device and scope for extension using ambient energy sources.

Keywords: Wireless Sensor Network, IoT, edge device, simulation, solar cells, TEG, supercapacitor, energy harvesting

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Authors: Ka Lei Au

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The Dalcroze method has been emerging in music classrooms, and music teachers are encouraged to integrate music and movement in their teaching. Music programs in colleges in Hong Kong have been introducing method courses such as Orff and Dalcroze method in music teaching as teacher’s education program. Since the targeted students of the course are music teachers who are making the decision of what approach to use in their classroom, their perception is significantly valued to identify how this approach is applicable in their teaching in regards to the teaching and learning culture and environment. This qualitative study aims to explore how the Dalcroze method as a teacher’s education course is perceived by music teachers from three aspects: 1) application in music teaching, 2) self-enhancement, 3) expectation. Through the lens of music teachers, data were collected from 30 music teachers who are taking the Dalcroze method course in music teaching in Hong Kong by the survey. The findings reveal the value and their intention of the Dalcroze method in Hong Kong. It also provides a significant reference for better development of such courses in the future in adaption to the culture, teaching and learning environment and teacher’s, student’s and parent’s perception of this approach.

Keywords: Dalcroze method, music teaching, perception, self-enhancement, teacher’s education

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Authors: Natarajan Vijayarangan, Viswanath Kumar Ganesan, G. Kumudhavalli

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This abstract figures out an uncertainty problem pertaining to evaluating business proposals or concept notes in an organisation. Let us consider business proposal evaluation process (BPEP) for execution of corporate research cum business projects in the organisation. Assume that two concept notes X and Y of BPEP are approved: one of them is a full-fledged type (100% financial approval given by the organisation) - X and other one is a conditional type (a partial financial approval given by the organisation) - Y. Then a penalty criteria has been introduced during the process. At the end of annual appraisal, if both of them complete as per the goals and objectives committed or figured out at the time of concept note submission, then both will get an incentive of $N from the organisation. If one of them doesn't fulfill the goals and objectives at the year-end appraisal, then d% reduction or cut will be levied on the project budget for the next year. If X fulfills the goals and objectives and Y doesn't , then X gets a gain of d% on Y's previous year budget and Y gets a loss of d% from the previous year budget for the next year. And vice-versa. Further, an incentive of $N will be given to those who gains. This process is a part of Necktie paradox and inherits an uncertainty principle on X or Y getting more than $N even if X or Y performs well.Solving the above problem and generalizing on finitely many concept notes will be a challenging task.

Keywords: concept notes, necktie paradox, annual appraisal, project budget and gain or loss

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Authors: Salim Ahmad, Ahamed Sani Kazaure, Haruna Musa

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Outsourcing had been the contractual relationship in which the responsibility for a function or task is handed over to an outside firm for a fixed period of time which is not the same as contracting where a specific one-off task is allocated to an external business; therefore in information technology a specialist area such as maintenance of web servers is controlled by an outside firm or if the department is not a critical factor the whole IT section may be outsourced. Organisation contracts is frequently a major area in successful outsourcing relationship, whereby the contracts specify the right, liability and expectation of the vendor and contracts are mostly of high value and last for very long. Therefore, in this research one particular project that is been outsourced for the financial industry (Guarantee Trust Assurance PlC) is been discussed along with the approach used and the various problems encountered, though Outsourcing is not necessarily a perfect and easy way out for business. It is extremely critical for a company to look at all the aspect of outsourcing before deciding to use it as an instrument for development. Moreover, critical analysis of the management issues encountered while implementing the outsourcing project have been fully discussed in the paper.

Keywords: outsourcing, techniques used in outsourcing, challenges of outsourcing implementation, management issues during implementation of outsourcing project

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Authors: Shan Li, Qiuwen Ma

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Integrated project delivery (IPD) is a project delivery method distinguished by a shared risk/rewards mechanism and multiparty agreement. IPD has drawn increasing attention from construction industry due to its reliability to deliver high-performing buildings. However, unavailable IPD specific insurance concerns the industry participants who are interested in IPD implementation. Even though the risk management capability can be enhanced using shared risk mechanism, some risks may occur when the partners do not commit themselves into the integrated practices in a desired manner. This is because the intense collaboration and close integration can not only create added value but bring new opportunistic behaviors and disputes. The study is aimed to investigate the risks of implementing IPD using Bayesian theory. IPD risk taxonomy is presented to identify all potential risks of implementing IPD and a risk network map is developed to capture the interdependencies between IPD risks. The conditional relations between risk occurrences and the impacts of IPD risks on project performances are evaluated and simulated based on Bayesian theory. The probability of project outcomes is predicted by simulation. In addition, it is found that some risks caused by integration are most possible occurred risks. This study can help the IPD project participants identify critical risks of adopting IPD to improve project performances. In addition, it is helpful to develop IPD specific insurance when the pertinent risks can be identified.

Keywords: Bayesian theory, integrated project delivery, project risks, project performances

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Authors: Fernanda Conforto de Oliveira

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has a central role in global financial governance as the world’s leading crisis lender. Its practice of conditional lending – conditioning loans on the implementation of economic policy adjustments – is the primary lever by which the institution interacts with and influences the policy choices of member countries and has been a key topic of interest to scholars and public opinion. However, empirical evidence about the economic and (geo)political determinants of IMF lending behavior remains inconclusive, and no model that explains IMF policies has been identified. This research moves beyond panel analysis to focus on financial negotiations for the first IMF programs in Argentina and Brazil in the early post-war period. It seeks to understand why negotiations achieved distinct objectives: Argentinean officials cooperated and complied with IMF policies, whereas their Brazilian counterparts hesitated. Using qualitative and automated text analysis, this paper analyses the hypothesis about whether a differential IMF treatment could help to explain these distinct outcomes. This paper contributes to historical studies on IMF-Latin America relations and the broader literature in international policy economy about IMF policies.

Keywords: international monetary fund, international history, financial history, Latin American economic history, natural language processing, sentiment analysis

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Authors: Maureen Montalban

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The military is a predominantly male-dominated organisation that has entrenched hierarchical and patriarchal norms. Since 1975, women have been allowed to continue active service in the Australian Defence Force during pregnancy and after the birth of a child; prior to this time, pregnancy was grounds for automatic termination. The military and family, as institutions, make great demands on individuals with respect to their commitment, loyalty, time and energy. This research explores what it means to serve in the Australian Army as a woman through a gender lens, overlaid during a specific time period of their service; that is, during pregnancy, birth, and being a mother. It investigates the external demands faced by servicewomen who are mothers, whether it be from society, the Army, their teammates, their partners, or their children; and how they internally make sense of that with respect to their own identity and role as a mother, servicewoman, partner and as an individual. It also seeks to uncover how Australian Army servicewomen who are also mothers attempt to manage the dilemma of serving two greedy institutions when both expect and demand so much and whether this is, in fact, an impossible dilemma.

Keywords: women's health, gender studies, military culture, identity

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Authors: S. Nickolas, Shobha K.

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The treatment of incomplete data is an important step in the data pre-processing. Missing values creates a noisy environment in all applications and it is an unavoidable problem in big data management and analysis. Numerous techniques likes discarding rows with missing values, mean imputation, expectation maximization, neural networks with evolutionary algorithms or optimized techniques and hot deck imputation have been introduced by researchers for handling missing data. Among these, imputation techniques plays a positive role in filling missing values when it is necessary to use all records in the data and not to discard records with missing values. In this paper we propose a novel artificial neural network based clustering algorithm, Adaptive Resonance Theory-2(ART2) for imputation of missing values in mixed attribute data sets. The process of ART2 can recognize learned models fast and be adapted to new objects rapidly. It carries out model-based clustering by using competitive learning and self-steady mechanism in dynamic environment without supervision. The proposed approach not only imputes the missing values but also provides information about handling the outliers.

Keywords: ART2, data imputation, clustering, missing data, neural network, pre-processing

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Authors: Nabil El Kadhi, Minerva M. Bunagan

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The dynamism in education, particularly in the area of teaching, learning and assessment has caused Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) worldwide to seek for ways to continuously improve their educational processes. HEIs use outcomes of institutional audits, assessments and accreditations, for improvement. In this study, the published institutional audit reports of HEIs in the Sultanate of Oman were analyzed to produce features of good practice; identify challenges along Teaching, Learning Assessment (TLA); and propose a framework that puts major emphasis in having a quality-assured TLA, including a set of principles that can be used as basis in succeeding an institutional visit. The TLA framework, which shows the TLA components, characteristics of the components, related expectation, including implementation tool/ strategy and pitfalls can be used by HEIs to have an adequate understanding of the scope of audit and be able to satisfy institutional audit requirements. The scope of this study can be widened by exploring the other requirements of the Institutional Audits in the Sultanate of Oman, particularly the area on Governance and Management and Student Support Services.

Keywords: accreditation, audit, teaching, learning and assessment, quality assurance

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Authors: Ahmed O. Babaleye, Rafet E. Kurt

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The global oil and gas industry is beginning to witness an increase in the number of installations moving towards decommissioning. Decommissioning of offshore installations is a complex, costly and hazardous activity, making safety one of the major concerns. Among existing removal options, complete and partial removal options pose the highest risks. Therefore, a dynamic risk model of the accidents from the two options is important to assess the risks on an overall basis. In this study, a risk-based safety model is developed to conduct quantitative risk analysis (QRA) for jacket structure systems failure. Firstly, bow-tie (BT) technique is utilised to model the causal relationship between the system failure and potential accident scenarios. Subsequently, to relax the shortcomings of BT, Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) were established to dynamically assess associated uncertainties and conditional dependencies. The BBN is developed through a similitude mapping of the developed bow-tie. The BBN is used to update the failure probabilities of the contributing elements through diagnostic analysis, thus, providing a case-specific and realistic safety analysis method when compared to a bow-tie. This paper presents the application of dynamic safety analysis to guide the allocation of risk control measures and consequently, drive down the avoidable cost of remediation.

Keywords: Bayesian belief network, offshore decommissioning, dynamic safety model, quantitative risk analysis

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Authors: Piyawan Sunasuan, Thiranan Pansuppawat, Mananya Manaratchasak, Maream Nillapun

Abstract:

This research aims to guide the development of the intensive English program for graduate students. The objectives are 1) to study the English skills in which needed for the graduate students and 2) to study the potential of the current course with the expected proficiency level. The samples are 46 graduate students enrolled in the ENG 102 and ENG 103 courses of the school year of 2019/2020 in semester one from the Silpakorn University, Sanamchandra Palace Campus, and two teachers. The researchers use 1) student survey, 2) teacher interview, and 3) focus group discussion among selected students. The data is analyzed by calculating the mean (x̅), the standard deviation, and document analysis. The findings show that nine skills are in the need of the course development; 1) academic writing 2) occupational purpose writing 3) communicative reading 4) occupational purpose reading 5) academic speaking 6) occupational purpose speaking 7) occupational purpose listening 8) academic listening and 9) communicative listening. The current course does not meet the expectation on a high level but has potential.

Keywords: English for academic purposes, English for communication, English for occupational purposes, intensive English

Procedia PDF Downloads 115

Authors: Edson Vengesai

Abstract:

Derivative products have become essential instruments in portfolio diversification, price discovery, and, most importantly, risk hedging. Derivatives are complex instruments; their valuation, volatility implications, and real impact on the underlying assets' behaviour are not well understood. Little is documented empirically, with conflicting conclusions on how these instruments affect firm risk exposures. Given the growing interest in using derivatives in risk management and portfolio engineering, this study examines the practical impact of derivative usage on the underlying stock price exposure and systematic risk. The paper uses data from South African listed firms. The study employs GARCH models to understand the effect of derivative uses on conditional stock volatility. The GMM models are used to estimate the effect of derivatives use on stocks' systematic risk as measured by Beta and on the total risk of stocks as measured by the standard deviation of returns. The results provide evidence on whether derivatives use is instrumental in reducing stock returns' systematic and total risk. The results are subjected to numerous controls for robustness, including financial leverage, firm size, growth opportunities, and macroeconomic effects.

Keywords: derivatives use, hedging, volatility, stock price exposure

Procedia PDF Downloads 76

Authors: Aijuka Nicholas

Abstract:

A research study was undertaken to characterize the aquifers and identify the potential groundwater recharge zones in the Kagandi district. Quantitative characterization of hydraulic conductivities of aquifers is of fundamental importance to the study of groundwater flow and contaminant transport in aquifers. A conditional approach is used to represent the spatial variability of hydraulic conductivity. Briefly, it involves using qualitative and quantitative geologic borehole-log data to generate a three-dimensional (3D) hydraulic conductivity distribution, which is then adjusted through calibration of a 3D groundwater flow model using pumping-test data and historic hydraulic data. The approach consists of several steps. The study area was divided into five sub-watersheds on the basis of artificial drainage divides. A digital terrain model (DTM) was developed using Arc GIS to determine the general drainage pattern of Kagandi watershed. Hydrologic characterization involved the determination of the various hydraulic properties of the aquifers. Potential groundwater recharge zones were identified by integrating various thematic maps pertaining to the digital elevation model, land use, and drainage pattern in Arc GIS and Sufer golden software. The study demonstrates the potential of GIS in delineating groundwater recharge zones and that the developed methodology will be applicable to other watersheds in Uganda.

Keywords: aquifers, Arc GIS, groundwater recharge, recharge zones

Procedia PDF Downloads 118

Authors: Madiha Zahid, Afifa Khanam

Abstract:

The present study aims to investigate the effect of reflective teaching practices on prospective teachers’ performance. Reflective teaching practice helps teachers to plan, implement and improve their performance by rethinking about their strengths and weaknesses. An action research was conducted by the researcher. All prospective teachers of sixth semester in a women university’s teacher education program were the population of the study. From 40 students, 20 students were taken as experimental group, and the rest of 20 students were taken as control group. During the action research a cyclic process of producing a module, training teachers for the reflective practices and then observing them during their class for reflective practice was done by the researchers. The research used a set of rubrics and checklists for assessing prospective teachers’ performance during their class. Finally, the module was modified with the help of findings. It was found that the training has improved the performance of teachers as they revised and modified their teaching strategies through reflective practice. However, they were not able to train their students for reflective practice as per expectation. The study has implications for teacher training programs to include reflective practice modules as part of their course work for making them better teachers.

Keywords: reflective practices, prospective teacher, effect, performance

Procedia PDF Downloads 153