Search results for: concurrent risk events

Authors: Hui Ling Chen

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This article describes the experience of caring for a 68-year-old lung cancer patient undergoing the initial stage of concurrent chemotherapy and radiation therapy during the period of October 21 to November 16. In this study, the author collected data through observation, interviews, medical examination, and the use of Roy’s adaptation model as a guide for data collection and assessment. This study confirmed that chemotherapy induced nausea and vomiting, and radiation therapy impaired skin integrity. At the same time, the patient experienced an anxious reaction to the initial cancer diagnosis and the insertion of subcutaneous infusion ports at the start of medical treatment. Similarly, the patient’s wife shares his anxiety, not to mention the feeling of inadequacy from the lack of training in cancer care. In response, the nursing intervention strategy has included keeping the patient and his family informed of his treatment progress, transfer of cancer care knowledge, and providing them with spiritual support. For example, the nursing staff has helped them draw up a mutually agreeable dietary plan that best suits the wife’s cooking skills, provided them with knowledge in pre- and post-radiation skin care, as well as means to cope with nausea and vomiting reactions. The nursing staff has also worked on building rapport with the patient and his spouse, providing them with encouragement, caring attention and companionship. After the patient was discharged from the hospital, the nursing staff followed up with caring phone calls to help the patient and his family make life-style adjustments to normalcy. The author hopes that his distinctive nursing experience can be useful as a reference for the clinical care of lung cancer patients undergoing the initial stage of concurrent chemotherapy and radiation therapy treatment.

Keywords: lung cancer, initiate diagnosis, concurrent chemotherapy and radiation therapy, nursing care

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Authors: Luke McGowan, David Pickernell, Martini Battisti

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In this paper, Adversity Triggers were explored through the lens of Organisational Resilience. Adversity Triggers are contextualized by temporal factors, thus, naturally aligning to Resilience literature. Resilience has been chosen as the theoretical framework as risk management approaches are often not geared towards providing meaningful responses to high-impact, low-probability events. Adversity Triggers and Organisational Resilience both consider temporal factors which enabled investigation of each phase of recovery. A systematic literature was employed to assess previous literature and define further areas of research. The systematic literature review method was chosen to catalogue and identify gaps in current literature.

Keywords: adversity triggers, crisis, extreme events, organisational resilience, resilience

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Authors: K. P. Fasalu Rahman

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The financial services industry of Islam include large number of institutions, such as investment banks and commercial banks, investment companies and mutual insurance companies. All types of these financial institutions should have to deal with many issues and risks in their field of work. Islamic banks should expect to face two types of risks: risks that are similar to those faced by conventional financial intermediaries and risks that are unique to the Islamic Banks due to their compliance with the Shariah. The use of financial services and products that comply with the Shariah principles cause special issues for supervision and risk management. Risks are uncertain future events that could influence the achievement of the bank’s objectives, including strategic, operational, financial and compliance objectives. In Islamic banks, effective risk management deserves special attention. As an operational problem, risk management is the classification and identification of methods, processes, and risks in banks to supervise, monitor and measure them. In comparison to conventional banks, Islamic banks face big difficulties in identifying and managing risks due to bigger complexities emerging from the profit loss sharing (PLS) concept and nature of particular risks of Islamic financing. As the developing of managing risks tool becomes very essential, especially in Islamic banking as most of the products are depending on PLS principle, identifying and measuring each type of risk is highly important and critical in any Islamic finance based systems. This paper highlights the special and general risks surrounding Islamic banking. And it investigates in detail the need for risk management in Islamic banks. In addition to analyzing the effectiveness of risk management strategies adopted by Islamic financial institutions at present, this research is also suggesting strategies for improving risk management process of Islamic banks in future.

Keywords: Islamic banking, management, risk, risk management

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Authors: Pui Yong Leo, Normy Maziah Mohd Said

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Change of global economy landscape and business environment has led to companies’ decision to go global and enter international markets. As the companies go beyond the comfort zone (i.e. investing in the home country), it is important to ensure a comprehensive risk assessment is carried out. This paper describes a standardized approach for international investment, ensuring identification of risk, risk appetite, risk rating, risk treatment and mitigation plans for respective international investment proposal. The standardized approach is divided into three (3) stages as follows: Stage 1 – Preliminary Risk profiling; with the objective to gauge exposure to countries and high level risk factors as first level assessment. Stage 2 – Risk Parameters; with the objective to define risk appetite for the international investment from the perspective of likelihood and impact. Stage 3 – Detailed Risk Assessments; with the objectives to assess in detail any triggered elements from Stage 1, and project specific risks. The final output will include the mitigation plans for the identified risks for the total investment. Example will be given in this paper to show how comprehensive risk assessment is carried out for an international investment in power energy sector.

Keywords: international investment, mitigation plans, risk appetite, risk assessment

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Authors: Saleem Abuleil, Khalid S. Alsamara

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Events represent a significant source of information on the web; they deliver information about events that occurred around the world in all kind of subjects and areas. These events can be collected and organized to provide valuable and useful information for decision makers, researchers, as well as any person seeking knowledge. In this paper, we discuss an ongoing research to target stock markets domain to observe and record changes (events) when they happen, collect them, understand the meaning of each one of them, and organize the information along with meaning in a well-structured format. By using Semantic Role Labeling (SRL) technique, we identified four factors for each event in this paper: verb of action and three roles associated with it, entity name, attribute, and attribute value. We have generated a set of rules and techniques to support our approach to analyze and understand the meaning of the events taking place in stock markets.

Keywords: natuaral language processing, Arabic language, event extraction and understanding, sematic role labeling, stock market

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Authors: Y. P. Raghavendra Babu

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Electrocution is a common cause of morbidity and mortality as electricity is an indispensible part of today’s World. Deaths due to electrocution which are witnessed do not pose a problem at the manner and cause of death. However un-witnessed deaths can raise suspicion of manner of death. A case of fatal electrocution is reported here which was diagnosed to be accidental in manner with the help of reconstruction of events by proper investigation.

Keywords: electrocution, manner of death, reconstruction of events, health information

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Authors: Maria Angela Bedini, Fabio Bronzini

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The risk of natural disasters affects all the countries of the world, whether it refers to seismic events or tsunamis or hydrogeological disasters. In most cases, the risk can be considered in its three components: hazard, exposure, vulnerability (and urban vulnerability). The aim of this paper is to evaluate how the Italian scientific community has related the contribution of these three components, superimposing the three different maps that summarize the fundamental structure of the risk. Based on the three components considered, the study applies the Regional Planning methodology on the three phases of the risk protection and mitigation process: the prevention phase, the emergency intervention phase, the post-disaster phase. The paper illustrates the Italian experience of the pre-during-post-earthquake intervention. Main results: The study deepens these aspects in the belief that “a historical center” and an “island” can present similar problems at the international level, both in the phase of prevention (earthquake, tsunamis, hydrogeological disasters), in emergency phase (protocols and procedures of intervention) and in the post-disaster phase. The conclusions of the research identify the need to plan in advance how to deal with the post-disaster phase and consider it a priority with respect to the simple reconstruction of destroyed buildings. In fact the main result of the post-disaster intervention must be the return and the social and economic support of the indigenous population, and not only the construction of new housing and equipment. In this sense, the results of the research show that the elderly inhabitants of a historic center can be compared to the indigenous population of an atoll of fishermen, as both constitute the most important resource: the human resource. Their return in conditions of security testifies, with their presence, the culture, customs, and values rooted in the history of a people.

Keywords: post-disaster interventions, risk of natural disasters in Italy and abroad, seismic events in Italy, social and economic protection and support for the native population of historical centers

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Authors: Szu-Hua Wang

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Urban ecosystems, as complex coupled human-environment systems, contain abundant natural resources for breeding natural assets and, at the same time, attract urban assets and consume natural resources, triggered by urban development. Land use change illustrates the interaction between human activities and environments factually. However, IPCC (2014) announces that land use change and urbanization due to human activities are the major cause of climate change, leading to serious impacts on urban ecosystem resilience and risk. For this reason, risk assessment and resilience analysis are the keys for responding to climate change on urban ecosystems. Urban spatial planning can guide urban development by land use planning, transportation planning, and environmental planning and affect land use allocation and human activities by building major constructions and protecting important national land resources simultaneously. Urban spatial planning can aggravate climate change and, on the other hand, mitigate and adapt climate change. Research on effects of spatial planning on land use change and climate change is one of intense issues currently. Therefore, this research focuses on developing frameworks for risk assessment and resilience analysis from the aspect of ecosystem based on typhoon precipitation in Taipei area. The integrated method of risk assessment and resilience analysis will be also addressed for applying spatial planning practice and sustainable development.

Keywords: ecosystem, land use change, risk analysis, resilience

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Authors: Kennedy Efosa Ehimwenma, Sujatha Krishnamoorthy, Safiya Al‑Sharji

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The probability computation of events is in the interval of [0, 1], which are values that are determined by the number of outcomes of events in a sample space S. The probability Pr(A) that an event A will never occur is 0. The probability Pr(B) that event B will certainly occur is 1. This makes both events A and B a certainty. Furthermore, the sum of probabilities Pr(E₁) + Pr(E₂) + … + Pr(Eₙ) of a finite set of events in a given sample space S equals 1. Conversely, the difference of the sum of two probabilities that will certainly occur is 0. This paper first discusses Bayes, the complement of probability, and the difference of probability for occurrences of learning-events before applying them in the prediction of learning objects in student learning. Given the sum of 1; to make a recommendation for student learning, this paper proposes that the difference of argMaxPr(S) and the probability of student-performance quantifies the weight of learning objects for students. Using a dataset of skill-set, the computational procedure demonstrates i) the probability of skill-set events that have occurred that would lead to higher-level learning; ii) the probability of the events that have not occurred that requires subject-matter relearning; iii) accuracy of the decision tree in the prediction of student performance into class labels and iv) information entropy about skill-set data and its implication on student cognitive performance and recommendation of learning.

Keywords: complement of probability, Bayes’ rule, prediction, pre-assessments, computational education, information theory

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Authors: Khoi A. Nguyen, Rodney A. Stewart, Hong Zhang

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‘Water-related energy’ is energy use which is directly or indirectly influenced by changes to water use. Informatics applying a range of mathematical, statistical and rule-based approaches can be used to reveal important information on demand from the available data provided at second, minute or hourly intervals. This study aims to combine these two concepts to improve the current water end use disaggregation problem through applying a wide range of most advanced pattern recognition techniques to analyse the concurrent high-resolution water-energy consumption data. The obtained results have shown that recognition accuracies of all end-uses have significantly increased, especially for mechanised categories, including clothes washer, dishwasher and evaporative air cooler where over 95% of events were correctly classified.

Keywords: deep learning network, smart metering, water end use, water-energy data

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Authors: Malani Herath, Sohan Wijesekera, Jagath Munasingha

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The impact of recent floods become significant, and the extraordinary flood events cause considerable damage to lives, properties, environment and negatively affect the whole development of Colombo urban region. Even though the Colombo urban region experiences recurrent flood impacts, several spatial planning interventions have been taken from time to time since early 20th century. All past plans have adopted a traditional approach to flood management, using infrastructural measures to reduce the chance of flooding together with rigid planning regulations. The existing flood risk management practices do not operate to be acceptable by the local community particular the urban poor. Researchers have constantly reported the differences in estimations of flood risk, priorities, concerns of experts and the local community. Risk-based decision making in flood management is not only a matter of technical facts; it has a significant bearing on how flood risk is viewed by local community and individuals. Moreover, sustainable flood management is an integrated approach, which highlights joint actions of experts and community. This indicates the necessity of further societal discussion on the acceptable level of flood risk indicators to prioritize and identify the appropriate flood management measures in Colombo. The understanding and evaluation of flood risk by local people are important to integrate in the decision-making process. This research questioned about the gap between the acceptable level of flood risk to spatial planners and to the local communities in Colombo. A comprehensive literature review was conducted to prepare a framework to analyze the public perception in Colombo. This research work identifies the factors that affect the variation of flood risk and acceptable levels to both local community and planning authorities.

Keywords: Colombo basin, public perception, urban flood risk, multi-criteria analysis

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Authors: Jason Maffia, Maria D’urso, Robert Crupi, Margaret Cartmell

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The emotional aspects of traumatic events such as workplace violence are often ignored, causing low productivity, disillusionment, and resentment within an organization. As a result, if workplace violence, particularly in healthcare settings, is not adequately addressed, it will become a phenomenon, undermining the peace and stability among the active communities while also posing a risk to the population's health and well-being. This review intends to identify the risk factors and the implications of workplace violence in healthcare settings and highlight the collaborative efforts needed in sustaining control and prevention measures against workplace violence. It is essential that health care organizations are prepared physically and emotionally for traumatic situations. This study explores the theoretical nature of addressing work-related violence in healthcare settings as well as traumatic stress reactivity and the context within which reactions occur and recovery takes place. Cognitive, social, and organizational influences on response are identified and used to tentatively offer explanations for identifying security risks, development, and implementation of de-escalation teams, CISM programs and training staff in violence prevention are among strategies hospitals are employing to keep workers and patients safe. General conclusion regarding the implications for intervention effectiveness and design are discussed.

Keywords: healthcare settings, stress reactions, traumatic events, workplace violence

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Authors: S. Vavias, T. R. Brewer, T. S. Farewell

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Coastal floods have been identified as an important natural hazard that can cause significant damage to the populated built-up areas, related infrastructure and also ecosystems and habitats. This study attempts to fill the gap associated with the development of preliminary assessments of coastal flood vulnerability for compliance with the EU Directive on the Assessment and Management of Flood Risks (2007/60/EC). In this context, a methodology has been created by taking into account three major parameters; the maximum wave run-up modelled from historical weather observations, the highest tide according to historic time series, and the sea level rise projections due to climate change. A high resolution digital terrain model (DTM) derived from LIDAR data has been used to integrate the estimated flood events in a GIS environment. The flood vulnerability map created shows potential risk areas and can play a crucial role in the coastal zone planning process. The proposed method has the potential to be a powerful tool for policy and decision makers for spatial planning and strategic management.

Keywords: coastal floods, vulnerability mapping, climate change, extreme weather events

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Authors: Pius Marthin, Nihal Ata Tutkun

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Survival analysis has become one of the paramount procedures in the modeling of time-to-event data. When we encounter complex survival problems, the traditional approach remains limited in accounting for the complex correlational structure between the covariates and the outcome due to the strong assumptions that limit the inference and prediction ability of the resulting models. Several studies exist on the deep learning approach to survival modeling; moreover, the application for the case of complex survival problems still needs to be improved. In addition, the existing models need to address the data structure's complexity fully and are subject to noise and redundant information. In this study, we design a deep learning technique (CmpXRnnSurv_AE) that obliterates the limitations imposed by traditional approaches and addresses the above issues to jointly predict the risk-specific probabilities and survival function for recurrent events with competing risks. We introduce the component termed Risks Information Weights (RIW) as an attention mechanism to compute the weighted cumulative incidence function (WCIF) and an external auto-encoder (ExternalAE) as a feature selector to extract complex characteristics among the set of covariates responsible for the cause-specific events. We train our model using synthetic and real data sets and employ the appropriate metrics for complex survival models for evaluation. As benchmarks, we selected both traditional and machine learning models and our model demonstrates better performance across all datasets.

Keywords: cumulative incidence function (CIF), risk information weight (RIW), autoencoders (AE), survival analysis, recurrent events with competing risks, recurrent neural networks (RNN), long short-term memory (LSTM), self-attention, multilayers perceptrons (MLPs)

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Authors: Chloe E. Edwards, Yasaman Shahtaheri

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Risk management plays a fundamental role in project planning and delivery. The purpose of incorporating risk management into project management practices is to identify and address uncertainties related to key project-related activities. The uncertainties, known as risk events, can relate to project deliverables that are quantifiable and are often measured by impact to project schedule, cost, or environmental impact. Risk management should be incorporated as an iterative practice throughout the planning, execution, and commissioning phases of a project. This paper specifically examines how risk management contributes to effective project planning and delivery through a case study of a transportation project. This case study focused solely on impacts to project schedule regarding three milestones: readiness for delivery, readiness for testing and commissioning, and completion of the facility. The case study followed the ISO 31000: Risk Management – Guidelines. The key factors that are outlined by these guidelines include understanding the scope and context of the project, conducting a risk assessment including identification, analysis, and evaluation, and lastly, risk treatment through mitigation measures. This process requires continuous consultation with subject matter experts and monitoring to iteratively update the risks accordingly. The risk identification process led to a total of fourteen risks related to design, permitting, construction, and commissioning. The analysis involved running 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations through @RISK 8.0 Industrial software to determine potential milestone completion dates based on the project baseline schedule. These dates include the best case, most likely case, and worst case to provide an estimated delay for each milestone. Evaluation of these results provided insight into which risks were the highest contributors to the projected milestone completion dates. Based on the analysis results, the risk management team was able to provide recommendations for mitigation measures to reduce the likelihood of risks occurring. The risk management team also provided recommendations for managing the identified risks and project activities moving forward to meet the most likely or best-case milestone completion dates.

Keywords: construction management, monte carlo simulation, project delivery, risk assessment, transportation engineering

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Authors: Lingxia Li, Frédéric Schnell, Shuzhe Ding, Solène Le Douairon Lahaye

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Background: The risk of sudden cardiac arret/death (SCA/D) in athletes is controversial. There is a lack of meta-analyses assessing the sex differences in the risk of SCA/D in competitive athletes. Purpose: The aim of the present study was to evaluate sex differences in the incidence of SCA/D in competitive athletes using meta-analyses. Methods: The systematic review was registered in the PROSPERO database (registration ID: CRD42023432022) and was conducted according to the PRISMA guidelines. PubMed, Embase, Scopus, SPORT Discus and Cochrane Library were searched up to July 2023. To avoid systematic bias in data pooling, only studies with data for both sexes were included. Results: From the 18 included studies, 2028 cases of SCA/D were observed (males 1821 (89.79%), females 207 (10.21%)). The age ranges from the adolescents (<26 years) to the elderly (>45 years). The incidence in male athletes was 1.32/100,000 AY (95% CI: [0.90, 1.93]) and in females was 0.26/100,000 AY (95% CI: [0.16, 0.43]), the incidence rate ratio (IRR) was 6.43 (95% CI: [4.22, 9.79]). The subgroup synthesis showed a higher incidence in males than in females in both age groups <25 years and ≤35 years, the IRR was 5.86 (95% CI: [4.69, 7.32]) and 5.79 (95% CI: [4.73, 7.09]), respectively. When considering the events, the IRR was 6.73 (95%CI: [3.06, 14.78]) among studies involving both SCA/D events and 7.16 (95% CI: [4.93, 10.40]) among studies including only cases of SCD. The available clinical evidence showed that cardiac events were most frequently seen in long-distance running races (26, 35.1%), marathon (16, 21.6%) and soccer (10, 13.5%). Coronary artery disease (14, 18.9%), hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (8, 10.8%), and arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (7, 9.5%) are the most common causes of SCA/D in competitive athletes. Conclusion: The meta-analysis provides evidence of sex differences in the incidence of SCA/D in competitive athletes. The incidence of SCA/D in male athletes was 6 to 7 times higher than in females. Identifying the reasons for this difference may have implications for targeted the prevention of fatal evets in athletes.

Keywords: incidence, sudden cardiac arrest, sudden cardiac death, sex difference, athletes

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Authors: M. Reni Sagayaraj, S. Anand Gnana Selvam, R. Reynald Susainathan

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In this paper we study that the catastrophic events arrive independently at the service facility according to a Poisson process with rate λ. The nature of a catastrophic event is that upon its arrival at a service station, it destroys all the customers there waiting and in the service. We will derive the net profit associated with queuing system and obtain its probability of the busy period.

Keywords: queueing system, net-profit, busy period, catastrophical events

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Authors: Rashid Masoud Ali Al-Mazrui, Ramadhani Mashaka Shabani

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Islamic banks and financial institutions are exposed to the same risks as conventional banking. These risks include the rate return risk, credit or market risk, liquidity risk, and operational risk among others. However, being a financial institution that operates Islamic banking and finance operations, there is additional risk associated with its operations different from conventional finance, such as displacing commercial risk. They face Shari'ah compliance risks because of their failure to follow Shari'ah principles. To have proper mitigation and risk management, banks should have proper risk management policies to mitigate risks. This paper aims to study the risk management taken by Islamic banks in comparison with conventional banks. Also, the study evaluates the provisions for risk management taken by selected Islamic banks and conventional banks. The study employs qualitative analysis using secondary data by applying a content analysis approach with a sample size of 4 Islamic banks and four conventional banks ranging from 2010 to 2020. We find that these banks all use the same technique, except for the associated risk. The extra ways are used, but only for additional risks that are available to Islamic banking and finance.

Keywords: emerging risk, risk management, Islamic banking, conventional bank

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Authors: Gökhan Altay, Cafer Kayadelen

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Rock fall is a movement of huge rock blocks from dip slopes due to physical effects. It generally occurs where loose tuffs lying under basalt flow or stringcourse is being constituted by limestone layers which stand on clay. By corrosion of some parts, big cracks occur on layers and these cracks continue to grow with the effect of freezing-thawing. In this way, the breaking rocks fall down from these dip slopes. Earthquakes which can induce lots of rock movements is another reason for rock fall events. In Turkey, we have a large number of regions prone to the earthquake as in the World so this increases the possibility of rock fall events. A great number of rock fall events take place in Turkey as in the World every year. The rock fall events occurring in urban areas cause serious damages in houses, roads and workplaces. Sometimes it also hinders transportation and furthermore it maybe kills people. In Turkey, rock fall events happen mostly in Spring and Winter because of freezing- thawing of water in rock cracks frequently. In mountain and inclined areas, rock fall is risky for engineering construction and environment. Some countries can invest significant money for these risky areas. For instance, in Switzerland, approximately 6.7 million dollars is spent annually for a distance of 4 km, to the systems to prevent rock fall events. In Turkey, we have lots of urban areas and engineering structure that have the rock fall risk. The embankments are preferable for rock fall events because of its low maintenance and repair costs. Also, embankments are able to absorb much more energy according to other protection systems. The current design method of embankments is only depended on field tests results so there are inadequate studies about this design method. In this paper, the field test modeled in three dimensions and analysis are carried out with the help of ANSYS programme. By the help of field test from literature the numerical model validated. After the validity of numerical models additional parametric studies performed. Changes in deformation of embankments are investigated by the changes in, geometry, velocity and impact height of falling rocks.

Keywords: ANSYS, embankment, impact height, numerical analysis, rock fall

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Authors: Ahmed Abdallatif

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Background: Patients with malignant germ cell tumors have age distribution in two peaks, with the first one during infancy and the second after the onset of puberty. Gonadal germ cell tumors are the most common malignant ovarian tumor in females aged below twenty years. Sacrococcygeal and retroperitoneal abdominal tumors usually presents in a large size before the onset of symptoms. Methods: Patients with pediatric germ cell tumors presenting to Children’s Cancer Hospital Egypt and National Cancer Institute Egypt from January 2008 to June 2011 Patients underwent stratification according to risk into low, intermediate and high risk groups according to children oncology group classification. Objectives: Assessment of the clinicopathologic features of all cases of pediatric germ cell tumors and classification of malignant cases according to their stage, and the primary site to low, intermediate and high risk patients. Evaluation of surgical management in each group of patients focusing on surgical approach, the extent of surgical resection according to each site, ability to achieve complete surgical resection and perioperative complications. Finally, determination of the three years overall and disease-free survival in different groups and the relation to different prognostic factors including the extent of surgical resection. Results: Out of 131 cases surgically explored only 26 cases had re exploration with 8 cases explored for residual disease 9 cases for remote recurrence or metastatic disease and the other 9 cases for other complications. Patients with low risk kept under follow up after surgery, out of those of low risk group (48 patients) only 8 patients (16.5%) shifted to intermediate risk. There were 20 patients (14.6%) diagnosed as intermediate risk received 3 cycles of compressed (Cisplatin, Etoposide and Bleomycin) and all high risk group patients 69patients (50.4%) received chemotherapy. Stage of disease was strongly and significantly related to overall survival with a poorer survival in late stages (stage IV) as compared to earlier stages. Conclusion: Overall survival rate at 3 three years was (76.7% ± 5.4, 3) years EFS was (77.8 % ±4.0), however 3 years DFS was much better (89.8 ± 3.4) in whole study group with ovarian tumors had significantly higher Overall survival (90% ± 5.1). Event Free Survival analysis showed that Male gender was 3 times likely to have bad events than females. Patients who underwent incomplete resection were 4 times more than patients with complete resection to have bad events. Disease free survival analysis showed that Patients who underwent incomplete surgery were 18.8 times liable for recurrence compared to those who underwent complete surgery, and patients who were exposed to re-excision were 21 times more prone to recurrence compared to other patients.

Keywords: extragonadal, germ cell tumors, gonadal, pediatric

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Authors: Marinko Maslaric, Maja Jokic

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When searching for fast and long term responses, sustainable logistics and supply chain applications have developed irrefutable theories and hypotheses towards market requirements. Nevertheless, there are certain misunderstandings on how the implementation of sustainability principles (social, economical, and environmental) and concepts should work in practice, more specifically, within a humanitarian supply chain management context. This paper will focus on the review and analysis of risk management concepts in humanitarian supply chain in order to identify their compliance with sustainable principles. In this direction, the study will look for strategies that suggest: minimization of environmental impacts throughout the reduction of resources consumption, depreciation of logistics costs, including supply chain ones, minimization of transportation and service costs, elaboration of quality performance of supply chain and logistics, and reduction of supply chain delivery time. On the side of meeting all defense, trades and humanitarian logistics needs, the research will be aligned to UN Sustainable Development Goals, standards, and performances. It will start with relevant strategies for identification of risk indicators and it will end with suggestion of valuable strategic approaches for their minimization or total prevention. Finally, a content analysis will propose a suitable methodological structure for the creation of most sustainable strategy in risk management of humanitarian supply chain. Content analysis will accompany thorough, consistent and methodical approach of literature review for potential disaster risk management plan. Thereupon, the propositions of this research will look for contemporary literature gaps, with respect to operate the literature analysis and to suggest the appropriate sustained risk low master plan. The indicated is here to secure the high quality of logistics practices in hazardous events.

Keywords: humanitarian logistics, sustainability, supply chain risk, risk management plan

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Authors: Olaniyi O. Omoyajowo

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To be successful in today’s competitive global environment, manufacturing industry must be able to respond quickly to changes in technology. These changes in technology introduce new risks and hazards. The management of risk/hazard in a manufacturing process recommends method through which the success rate of an organization can be increased. Thus, there is a continual need for manufacturing industries to invest significant amount of resources in risk management, which in turn optimizes the production output and profitability of any manufacturing industry (if implemented properly). To help improve the existing risk prevention and mitigation practices in Small and Medium Enterprise (SME) in Nigeria Manufacturing Industries (NMI), the researcher embarks on this research to develop a systematic Risk Management process.

Keywords: manufacturing management, risk, risk management, SMEs

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Authors: Phontip Kanlahasuth

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This paper presents the environmental safety and occupational health risk assessment of rocket static test by assessing risk level from probability and severity and then appropriately applying the risk control measures. Before the environmental safety and occupational health measures are applied, the serious hazards level is 31%, medium level is 24% and low level is 45%. Once risk control measures are practically implemented, the serious hazard level can be diminished, medium level is 38%, low level is 45% and eliminated level is 17%. It is clearly shown that the environmental safety and occupational health measures can significantly reduce the risk level.

Keywords: rocket static test, hazard, risk, risk assessment, risk analysis, environment, safety, occupational health, acceptable risk, probability, severity, risk level

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Authors: Jawaher F. Alsharef, Abdullah A. Ghaddaf, Mohammed S. Alomari, Abdullah A. Al Qurashi, Ahmed S. Abdulhamid, Mohammed S. Alshehri, Majed Alosaimi

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Botulinum toxin type A (BTX-A) is the most popular therapeutic agent for muscle relaxation and pain control. Lately, BTX-A injection received great interest as a part of multimodal pain management for lower limb lengthening and deformity correction. This systematic review aimed to determine the role of BTX-A injection in pain management for during lower limb lengthening and/or deformity correction. We searched Medline, Embase, and CENTRAL. We included randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that compared the BTX-A injection to placebo for individuals undergoing lower limb lengthening and/or deformity correction. We sought to evaluate the following outcomes: pain on visual analogue scale (VAS), range of motion parameters, average opioid consumption, and adverse events. The standardized mean difference (SMD) was used to represent continuous outcomes while risk ratio (RR) was used to represent dichotomous outcomes. A total of 4 RCTs that enrolled 257 participants (337 limbs) deemed eligible. Adjuvant BTX-A injection showed a significant reduction in post-operative pain compared to placebo (SMD=–0.28, 95% CI –0.53 to –0.04). No difference was found between BTX-A injection and placebo in terms of range of motion parameters, average opioid consumption, or adverse events after surgical limb lengthening and/or deformity correction (RR= 0.77, 95% CI –0.58 to 1.03). Conclusions: Adjuvant BTX-A injection conferred a discernible reduction in post-operative pain during surgical limb lengthening and/or deformity without increasing the risk of adverse events.

Keywords: botulinum toxin type A, limb lengthening, distraction osteogenesis, deformity correction, pain management

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Authors: Saadia Drissi

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The cloud computing is an innovative paradigm that introduces several changes in technology that have resulted a new ways for cloud providers to deliver their services to cloud consumers mainly in term of security risk assessment, thus, adapting a current risk assessment tools to cloud computing is a very difficult task due to its several characteristics that challenge the effectiveness of risk assessment approaches. As consequence, there is a need of risk assessment model adapted to cloud computing. This paper requires a new risk assessment model based on multi-agent system and AHP model as fundamental steps towards the development of flexible risk assessment approach regarding cloud consumers.

Keywords: cloud computing, risk assessment model, multi-agent system, AHP model, cloud consumer

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Authors: O. Anan, D. Böhning, A. Maruotti

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The purpose of the study is to estimate the elusive target population size under a truncated count model that accounts for heterogeneity. The purposed estimator is based on the generalized Poisson distribution (GPD), which extends the Poisson distribution by adding a dispersion parameter. Thus, it becomes an useful model for capture-recapture data where concurrent events are not homogeneous. In addition, it can account for over-dispersion and under-dispersion. The ratios of neighboring frequency counts are used as a tool for investigating the validity of whether generalized Poisson or Poisson distribution. Since capture-recapture approaches do not provide the zero counts, the estimated parameters can be achieved by modifying the EM-algorithm technique for the zero-truncated generalized Poisson distribution. The properties and the comparative performance of proposed estimator were investigated through simulation studies. Furthermore, some empirical examples are represented insights on the behavior of the estimators.

Keywords: capture, recapture methods, ratio plot, heterogeneous population, zero-truncated count

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Authors: Francis Edum-Fotwe, Tony Thorpe, Charles Afetornu

Abstract:

Risk perception informs the outcome of how issues are responded to in either solving or overcoming a problem or improving a situation. Risk perception is established to be affected by some key factors reflecting in the varying ways in which work is done as well as the level of efficiency achieved. These factors potentially would influence risk perception to different extents. Such that if these factors are said to determine risk perception, how does a change in any affect risk perception. Since the ability to address risk is influenced by risk perception, establishing and developing awareness of that perception should enable construction professionals to make viable decisions. Any act to improve the construction industry cannot be overemphasised, considering its contribution to national development. A survey questionnaire was conducted in Ghana to elicit data that measures the risk perception and the essential factors as well as the necessary demographics of the respondents, who are construction professionals. This study finds out the sensitivity of the critical factors of risk perception. It uses the Relative Importance Index analysis tool to investigate the differential effect of these essential factors on risk perception, such that a slight change in a factor makes a significant change in risk perception, having established that it is influenced by essential factors. The findings can lead to policy formation for employers on the prioritisation factors to undertake to improve the risk perception of employees. Other areas in which this study can be useful in team formation for sensitive and complex projects where efficient risk management is critical.

Keywords: construction industry, risk, risk management, risk perception

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Authors: Karl-Erich Lindenschmidt, Apurba Das, Joel Trudell, Keanne Russell

Abstract:

In this presentation, we explore options for mitigating ice-jam flooding along the Athabasca River in western Canada. Not only flood hazard, expressed in this case as the probability of flood depths and extents being exceeded, but also flood risk, in which annual expected damages are calculated. Flood risk is calculated, which allows a cost-benefit analysis to be made so that decisions on the best mitigation options are not based solely on flood hazard but also on the costs related to flood damages and the benefits of mitigation. The river ice model is used to simulate extreme ice-jam flood events with which scenarios are run to determine flood exposure and damages in flood-prone areas along the river. We will concentrate on three mitigation options – the placement of a dike, artificial breakage of the ice cover along the river, the installation of an ice-control structure, and the construction of a reservoir. However, any mitigation option is not totally failsafe. For example, dikes can still be overtopped and breached, and ice jams may still occur in areas of the river where ice covers have been artificially broken up. Hence, for all options, it is recommended that zoning of building developments away from greater flood hazard areas be upheld. Flood mitigation can have a negative effect of giving inhabitants a false sense of security that flooding may not happen again, leading to zoning policies being relaxed. (Text adapted from Lindenschmidt [2022] "Ice Destabilization Study - Phase 2", submitted to the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo, Alberta, Canada)

Keywords: ice jam, flood hazard, flood risk river ice modelling, flood risk

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Authors: Herng-Sheng Lee, Chi-Yi Chen, Wan-Ting Huang, Li-Jen Chang, Solomon Chih-Cheng Chen, Hsin-Yi Yang

Abstract:

A variety of gastrointestinal disorders, such as Crohn’s disease, ulcerative colitis, and coeliac disease, are recognized as risk factors for osteoporosis and osteoporotic fractures. One recent study suggests that individuals with irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) might also be at increased risk of osteoporosis and osteoporotic fractures. Up to now, the association between IBS and the risk of fractures at different anatomic sites occurrences is not completely clear. We conducted a population-based cohort analysis to investigate the fracture risk of IBS in comparison with non-IBS group. We identified 29,505 adults aged ≥ 20 years with newly diagnosed IBS using the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database in 2000-2012. A comparison group was constructed of patients without IBS who were matched according to gender and age. The occurrence of fracture was monitored until the end of 2013. We analyzed the risk of fracture events to occur in IBS by using Cox proportional hazards regression models. Patients with IBS had a higher incidence of osteoporotic fractures compared with non-IBS group (12.34 versus 9.45 per 1,000 person-years) and an increased risk of osteoporotic fractures (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 1.27, 95 % confidence interval [CI] = 1.20 – 1.35). Site specific analysis showed that the IBS group had a higher risk of fractures for spine, forearm, hip and hand than did the non-IBS group. With further stratification for gender and age, a higher aHR value for osteoporotic fractures in IBS group was seen across all age groups in males, but seen in elderly females. In addition, female, elderly, low income, hypertension, coronary artery disease, cerebrovascular disease, and depressive disorders as independent osteoporotic fracture risk factors in IBS patients. The IBS is considered as a risk factor for osteoporotic fractures, particularly in female individuals and fracture sites located at the spine, forearm, hip and hand.

Keywords: irritable bowel syndrome, fracture, gender difference, longitudinal health insurance database, public health

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Authors: Mohamed Anouar Razgallah

Abstract:

This paper examines in the context of a one-period model the impact of background risk on the optimal secondary prevention. We conduct our study based on various configurations of the background risk. We intend to show that in most cases the level of secondary prevention effort varied after the introduction of background risk, however, in very few cases this level remains constant.

Keywords: secondary prevention, primary prevention, background risk, ecomomics

Procedia PDF Downloads 395