Search results for: bleeding events

Authors: Alexandru Achim, Tamás Szűcsborus, Viktor Sasi, Ferenc Nagy, Zoltán Jambrik, Attila Nemes, Albert Varga, Călin Homorodean, Olivier F. Bertrand, Zoltán Ruzsa

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Aim: Our study aimed to establish the safety and the technical success of distal radial access for balloon aortic valvuloplasty (DR-BAV). The secondary objective was to determine the effectiveness and appropriate role of DR-BAV within half year follow-up. Methods: Clinical and angiographic data from 32 consecutive patients with symptomatic aortic stenosis were evaluated in a prospective pilot single-center study. Between 2020 and 2021, the patients were treated utilizing dual distal radial access with 6-10F compatible balloons. The efficacy endpoint was divided into technical success (successful valvuloplasty balloon inflation at the aortic valve and absence of intra- or periprocedural major complications), hemodynamic success (a reduction of the mean invasive gradient >30%), and clinical success (an improvement of at least one clinical category in the NYHA classification). The safety endpoints were vascular complications (major and minor Valve Academic Research Consortium (VARC)-2 bleeding, diminished or lost arterial pulse or the presence of any pseudo-aneurysm or arteriovenous fistula during the clinical follow-up) and major adverse events, MAEs (the composite of death, stroke, myocardial infarction, and urgent major aortic valve replacement or implantation during the hospital stay and or at one-month follow-up). Results: 32 patients (40 % male, mean age 80 ± 8,5) with severe aortic valve stenosis were included in the study and 4 patients were excluded. Technical success was achieved in all patients (100%). Hemodynamic success was achieved in 30 patients (93,75%). Invasive max and mean gradients were reduced from 73±22 mm Hg and 49±22 mm Hg to 49±19 mm Hg and 20±13 mm Hg, respectively (p = <.001). Clinical success was achieved in 29 patients (90,6%). In total, no major adverse cardiac or cerebrovascular event nor vascular complications (according to VARC 2 criteria) occurred during the intervention. All-cause death at 6 months was 12%. Conclusion: According to our study, dual distal radial artery access is a safe and effective option for balloon aortic valvuloplasty in patients with severe aortic valve stenosis and can be performed in all patients with sufficient lumen diameter. Future randomized studies are warranted to investigate whether this technique is superior to other approaches.

Keywords: mean invasive gradient, distal radial access for balloon aortic valvuloplasty (DR-BAV), aortic valve stenosis, pseudo-aneurysm, arteriovenous fistula, valve academic research consortium (VARC)-2

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Authors: Lingxia Li, Frédéric Schnell, Shuzhe Ding, Solène Le Douairon Lahaye

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Background: The risk of sudden cardiac arret/death (SCA/D) in athletes is controversial. There is a lack of meta-analyses assessing the sex differences in the risk of SCA/D in competitive athletes. Purpose: The aim of the present study was to evaluate sex differences in the incidence of SCA/D in competitive athletes using meta-analyses. Methods: The systematic review was registered in the PROSPERO database (registration ID: CRD42023432022) and was conducted according to the PRISMA guidelines. PubMed, Embase, Scopus, SPORT Discus and Cochrane Library were searched up to July 2023. To avoid systematic bias in data pooling, only studies with data for both sexes were included. Results: From the 18 included studies, 2028 cases of SCA/D were observed (males 1821 (89.79%), females 207 (10.21%)). The age ranges from the adolescents (<26 years) to the elderly (>45 years). The incidence in male athletes was 1.32/100,000 AY (95% CI: [0.90, 1.93]) and in females was 0.26/100,000 AY (95% CI: [0.16, 0.43]), the incidence rate ratio (IRR) was 6.43 (95% CI: [4.22, 9.79]). The subgroup synthesis showed a higher incidence in males than in females in both age groups <25 years and ≤35 years, the IRR was 5.86 (95% CI: [4.69, 7.32]) and 5.79 (95% CI: [4.73, 7.09]), respectively. When considering the events, the IRR was 6.73 (95%CI: [3.06, 14.78]) among studies involving both SCA/D events and 7.16 (95% CI: [4.93, 10.40]) among studies including only cases of SCD. The available clinical evidence showed that cardiac events were most frequently seen in long-distance running races (26, 35.1%), marathon (16, 21.6%) and soccer (10, 13.5%). Coronary artery disease (14, 18.9%), hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (8, 10.8%), and arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (7, 9.5%) are the most common causes of SCA/D in competitive athletes. Conclusion: The meta-analysis provides evidence of sex differences in the incidence of SCA/D in competitive athletes. The incidence of SCA/D in male athletes was 6 to 7 times higher than in females. Identifying the reasons for this difference may have implications for targeted the prevention of fatal evets in athletes.

Keywords: incidence, sudden cardiac arrest, sudden cardiac death, sex difference, athletes

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Authors: Masoud Ghahvechi Pour

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Risk management is a systematic and regular process of identifying, analyzing and responding to risks throughout the project's life cycle in order to achieve the optimal level of elimination, reduction or control of risk. The purpose of project risk management is to increase the probability and effect of positive events and reduce the probability and effect of unpleasant events on the project. Risk management is one of the most fundamental parts of project management, so that unmanaged or untransmitted risks can be one of the primary factors of failure in a project. Effective risk management does not apply to risk regression, which is apparently the cheapest option of the activity. However, the main problem with this option is the economic sensitivity, because what is potentially profitable is by definition risky, and what does not pose a risk is economically interesting and does not bring tangible benefits. Therefore, in relation to the implemented project, effective risk management is finding a "middle ground" in its management, which includes, on the one hand, protection against risk from a negative direction by means of accurate identification and classification of risk, which leads to analysis And it becomes a comprehensive analysis. On the other hand, management using all mathematical and analytical tools should be based on checking the maximum benefits of these decisions. Detailed analysis, taking into account all aspects of the company, including stakeholder analysis, will allow us to add what will become tangible benefits for our project in the future to effective risk management. Identifying the risk of the project is based on the theory that which type of risk may affect the project, and also refers to specific parameters and estimating the probability of their occurrence in the project. These conditions can be divided into three groups: certainty, uncertainty, and risk, which in turn support three types of investment: risk preference, risk neutrality, specific risk deviation, and its measurement. The result of risk identification and project analysis is a list of events that indicate the cause and probability of an event, and a final assessment of its impact on the environment.

Keywords: risk, management, knowledge, risk management

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Authors: Ionel Zagan, Vasile Gheorghita Gaitan

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Minimizing the response time to asynchronous events in a real-time system is an important factor in increasing the speed of response and an interesting concept in designing equipment fast enough for the most demanding applications. The present article will present the results regarding the validation of the nMPRA (Multi Pipeline Register Architecture) architecture using the FPGA Virtex-7 circuit. The nMPRA concept is a hardware processor with the scheduler implemented at the processor level; this is done without affecting a possible bus communication, as is the case with the other CPU solutions. The implementation of static or dynamic scheduling operations in hardware and the improvement of handling interrupts and events by the real-time executive described in the present article represent a key solution for eliminating the overhead of the operating system functions. The nMPRA processor is capable of executing a preemptive scheduling, using various algorithms without a software scheduler. Therefore, we have also presented various scheduling methods and algorithms used in scheduling the real-time tasks.

Keywords: nMPRA architecture, pipeline processor, preemptive scheduling, real-time system

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Authors: Benghenia Hadj Abd El Kader

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Sleep apnea events as obstructive, central, mixed or hypopnea are characterized by frequent breathing cessations or reduction in upper airflow during sleep. An advanced method for analyzing the patterning of biomedical signals to recognize obstructive sleep apnea and hypopnea is presented. In the aim to extract characteristic parameters, which will be used for classifying the above stated (obstructive, central, mixed) sleep apnea and hypopnea, the proposed method is based first on the analysis of polysomnography signals such as electrocardiogram signal (ECG) and electromyogram (EMG), then classification of the (obstructive, central, mixed) sleep apnea and hypopnea. The analysis is carried out using the wavelet transform technique in order to extract characteristic parameters whereas classification is carried out by applying the SVM (support vector machine) technique. The obtained results show good recognition rates using characteristic parameters.

Keywords: obstructive, central, mixed, sleep apnea, hypopnea, ECG, EMG, wavelet transform, SVM classifier

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Authors: Tracy Smith-Carrier

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Burgeoning research extols the benefits of innovative experiential learning activities to increase participants’ engagement, enhance their individual learning, and bridge the gap between theory and practice. This presentation discusses findings from a multiple case study on poverty simulation events conducted with two samples: undergraduate students and community participants. After exploring the nascent research on the benefits and limitations of poverty simulation activities, the study explores whether participating in a poverty simulation resulted in changes to participants’ beliefs about the causes and effects of poverty, as well as shifts in their attitudes and actions toward people experiencing poverty. For the purposes of triangulation, quantitative and qualitative data from a variety of sources were analyzed: participant feedback surveys, qualitative responses, and pre, post, and follow-up questionnaires. Findings show statistically significant results (p<.05) from both samples on cumulative scores of the modified Attitudes Toward Poverty Scale, indicating an improvement in participants’ attitudes toward poverty. Although generally positive about their experiences, participating in the simulation did not appear to have prompted participants to take specific actions to reduce poverty. Conclusions drawn from the research study suggest that poverty simulation planners should be wary of adopting scenarios that emphasize, or fail to adequately contextualize, behaviours or responses that might perpetuate individual explanations of poverty. Moreover, organizers must carefully consider how to ensure participants in their audience currently experiencing low-income do not become emotionally distressed, triggered or further marginalized in the process. While overall participants were positive about their experiences in the simulation, the events did not appear to have prompted them to action. Moving beyond the goal of increasing participants’ understandings of poverty, interventions that foster greater engagement in poverty issues over the long-term are necessary.

Keywords: empathy, experiential learning, poverty awareness, poverty simulation

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Authors: Laura Kupers, Julie Piérard, Niki Cauberg

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The use of exposed concrete (sometimes referred to as architectural concrete), keeps gaining popularity. Exposed concrete has the advantage to combine the structural properties of concrete with an aesthetic finish. However, for a successful aesthetic finish, much attention needs to be paid to the execution (formwork, release agent, curing, weather conditions…), the concrete composition (choice of the raw materials and mix proportions) as well as to its fresh properties. For the latter, a simple on-site pass/fail test could halt the casting of concrete not suitable for architectural concrete and thus avoid expensive repairs later. When architects opt for an exposed concrete, they usually want a smooth, uniform and nearly blemish-free surface. For this choice, a standard ‘construction’ concrete does not suffice. An aesthetic surface finishing requires the concrete to contain a minimum content of fines to minimize the risk of segregation and to allow complete filling of more complex shaped formworks. The concrete may neither be too viscous as this makes it more difficult to compact and it increases the risk of blow holes blemishing the surface. On the other hand, too much bleeding may cause color differences on the concrete surface. An easy pass/fail test, which can be performed on the site just before the casting, could avoid these problems. In case the fresh concrete fails the test, the concrete can be rejected. Only in case the fresh concrete passes the test, the concrete would be cast. The pass/fail tests are intended for a concrete with a consistency class S4. Five tests were selected as possible onsite pass/fail test. Two of these tests already exist: the K-slump test (ASTM C1362) and the Bauer Filter Press Test. The remaining three tests were developed by the BBRI in order to test the segregation resistance of fresh concrete on site: the ‘dynamic sieve stability test’, the ‘inverted cone test’ and an adapted ‘visual stability index’ (VSI) for the slump and flow test. These tests were inspired by existing tests for self-compacting concrete, for which the segregation resistance is of great importance. The suitability of the fresh concrete mixtures was also tested by means of a laboratory reference test (resistance to segregation) and by visual inspection (blow holes, structure…) of small test walls. More than fifteen concrete mixtures of different quality were tested. The results of the pass/fail tests were compared with the results of this laboratory reference test and the test walls. The preliminary laboratory results indicate that concrete mixtures ‘suitable’ for placing as exposed concrete (containing sufficient fines, a balanced grading curve etc.) can be distinguished from ‘inferior’ concrete mixtures. Additional laboratory tests, as well as tests on site, will be conducted to confirm these preliminary results and to set appropriate pass/fail values.

Keywords: exposed concrete, testing fresh concrete, segregation resistance, bleeding, consistency

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Authors: Mostafa M. Ahmed, Kotaro Nose, Takashi Fujii, Toshiki Ayano

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The Study shed the light on the effects of employing varied curing agents (No.1-No.6): bleeding water, and sprinkling water, aqueous basic silica compound, modified acrylic resin, the emulsion of solid wax and nonionic surfactant, and water-based paraffin wax, on the properties of high-performance concrete (HPC) in comparison with the cured specimens according to the standard curing at 20 ± 3°C (JIS A 0203:2019). The specimens cured in accordance with standard curing exhibit a better compressive strength and higher freeze-thaw resistance compared to most non-standard-cured samples.

Keywords: curing agents, high-performance concrete, compressive strength, cumulative scaling, freeze-thaw resistance

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Authors: Kamal Kumar Tanti, Nayan Moni Saikia, Markynti Swer

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This study aims to investigate and analyse the trends and variability of rainfall in Shillong and its nearby areas, located in Meghalaya hills of North-East India; which is geographically a neighbouring area to the wettest places of the Earth, i.e., Cherrapunji and Mawsynram. The analysis of variability and trends to annual, seasonal, monthly and daily rainfall was carried out, using the data collected from the IMD station at Shillong; thereby attempting to highlight whether rainfall in Shillong area has been increasing or decreasing over the years. Rainfall variability coefficient is utilized to compare the current rainfall trend of the area with its past rainfall trends. The present study also aims to analyse the frequency of occurrence of extreme rainfall events over the region. These studies will help us to establish a correlation between the current rainfall trend and climate change scenario of the study area.

Keywords: trends and variability of rainfall, annual, seasonal, monthly and daily rainfall, rainfall variability coefficient, extreme rainfall events, climate change, Shillong, Cherrapunji, Mawsynram

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Authors: Sevilay Çankaya

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The detection of deception in children’s interviews is essential for statement veracity. The widely used method for deception detection is building cognitive load, which is the logic of the cognitive interview (CI), and its effectiveness for adults is approved. This meta-analysis delves into the effectiveness of inducing cognitive load as a means of enhancing veracity detection during interviews with children. Additionally, the effectiveness of cognitive load on children's total number of events recalled is assessed as a second part of the analysis. The current meta-analysis includes ten effect sizes from search using databases. For the effect size calculation, Hedge’s g was used with a random effect model by using CMA version 2. Heterogeneity analysis was conducted to detect potential moderators. The overall result indicated that cognitive load had no significant effect on veracity outcomes (g =0.052, 95% CI [-.006,1.25]). However, a high level of heterogeneity was found (I² = 92%). Age, participants’ characteristics, interview setting, and characteristics of the interviewer were coded as possible moderators to explain variance. Age was significant moderator (β = .021; p = .03, R2 = 75%) but the analysis did not reveal statistically significant effects for other potential moderators: participants’ characteristics (Q = 0.106, df = 1, p = .744), interview setting (Q = 2.04, df = 1, p = .154), and characteristics of interviewer (Q = 2.96, df = 1, p = .086). For the second outcome, the total number of events recalled, the overall effect was significant (g =4.121, 95% CI [2.256,5.985]). The cognitive load was effective in total recalled events when interviewing with children. All in all, while age plays a crucial role in determining the impact of cognitive load on veracity, the surrounding context, interviewer attributes, and inherent participant traits may not significantly alter the relationship. These findings throw light on the need for more focused, age-specific methods when using cognitive load measures. It may be possible to improve the precision and dependability of deceit detection in children's interviews with the help of more studies in this field.

Keywords: deceit detection, cognitive load, memory recall, children interviews, meta-analysis

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Authors: Alexander Zotov, Ilkin Osmanov, Emil Sakharov, Oleg Shelest, Aleksander Troitskiy, Robert Khabazov

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Objective: Thoracoscopic surgical ablation of atrial fibrillation (AF) includes two technologies in performing of operation. 1st strategy used is the AtriCure device (bipolar, nonirrigated, non clamping), 2nd strategy is- the Medtronic device (bipolar, irrigated, clamping). The study presents a comparative analysis of clinical outcomes of two strategies in thoracoscopic ablation of AF using AtriCure vs. Medtronic devices. Methods: In 2 center study, 123 patients underwent thoracoscopic ablation of AF for the period from 2016 to 2020. Patients were divided into two groups. The first group is represented by patients who applied the AtriCure device (N=63), and the second group is - the Medtronic device (N=60), respectively. Patients were comparable in age, gender, and initial severity of the condition. Among the patients, in group 1 were 65% males with a median age of 57 years, while in group 2 – 75% and 60 years, respectively. Group 1 included patients with paroxysmal form -14,3%, persistent form - 68,3%, long-standing persistent form – 17,5%, group 2 – 13,3%, 13,3% and 73,3% respectively. Median ejection fraction and indexed left atrial volume amounted in group 1 – 63% and 40,6 ml/m2, in group 2 - 56% and 40,5 ml/m2. In addition, group 1 consisted of 39,7% patients with chronic heart failure (NYHA Class II) and 4,8% with chronic heart failure (NYHA Class III), when in group 2 – 45% and 6,7%, respectively. Follow-up consisted of laboratory tests, chest Х-ray, ECG, 24-hour Holter monitor, and cardiopulmonary exercise test. Duration of freedom from AF, distant mortality rate, and prevalence of cerebrovascular events were compared between the two groups. Results: Exit block was achieved in all patients. According to the Clavien-Dindo classification of surgical complications fraction of adverse events was 14,3% and 16,7% (1st group and 2nd group, respectively). Mean follow-up period in the 1st group was 50,4 (31,8; 64,8) months, in 2nd group - 30,5 (14,1; 37,5) months (P=0,0001). In group 1 - total freedom of AF was in 73,3% of patients, among which 25% had additional antiarrhythmic drugs (AADs) therapy or catheter ablation (CA), in group 2 – 90% and 18,3%, respectively (for total freedom of AF P<0,02). At follow-up, the distant mortality rate in the 1st group was – 4,8%, and in the 2nd – no fatal events. Prevalence of cerebrovascular events was higher in the 1st group than in the 2nd (6,7% vs. 1,7% respectively). Conclusions: Despite the relatively shorter follow-up of the 2nd group in the study, applying the strategy using the Medtronic device showed quite encouraging results. Further research is needed to evaluate the effectiveness of this strategy in the long-term period.

Keywords: atrial fibrillation, clamping, ablation, thoracoscopic surgery

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Authors: Andreas Ateke Njoh, Shalom Tchokfe Ndoula, Amani Adidja, Germain Nguessan Menan, Annie Mengue, Eric Mboke, Hassan Ben Bachir, Sangwe Clovis Nchinjoh, Yauba Saidu, Laurent Cleenewerck De Kiev

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Vaccines serve a great deal in protecting the population globally. Vaccine products are subject to rigorous quality control and approval before use to ensure safety. Even if all actors take the required precautions, some people could still have adverse events following immunization (AEFI) caused by the vaccine composition or an error in its administration. AEFI underreporting is pronounced in low-income settings like Cameroon. The Country introduced electronic platforms to strengthen surveillance. With the introduction of many novel vaccines, like COVID-19 and the novel Oral Polio Vaccine (nOPV) 2, there was a need to monitor AEFI in the Country. A cross-sectional study was conducted from July to December 2022. Data on AEFI per region of Cameroon were reviewed for the past five years. Data were analyzed with MS Excel, and the results were presented in proportions. AEFI reporting was uncommon in Cameroon. With the introduction of novel vaccines in 2021, the health authorities engaged in new tools and training to capture cases. AEFI detected almost doubled using the open data kit (ODK) compared to previous platforms, especially following the introduction of the nOPV2 and COVID-19 vaccines. The AEFI rate was 1.9 and 160 per administered 100 000 doses of nOPV2 and COVID-19 vaccines, respectively. This mobile tool captured individual information for people with AEFI from all regions. The platform helped to identify common AEFI following the use of these new vaccines. The ODK mobile technology was vital in improving AEFI reporting and providing data to monitor using new vaccines in Cameroon.

Keywords: adverse events following immunization, cameroon, COVID-19 vaccines, nOPV, ODK

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Authors: Arkadiusz Zurek

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The potential of using drones is visible in many areas of logistics, especially in terms of their use for monitoring and control of many processes. The technologies implemented in the last decade concern new possibilities for companies that until now have not even considered them, such as warehouse inventories. Unmanned aerial vehicles are no longer seen as a revolutionary tool for Industry 4.0, but rather as tools in the daily work of factories and logistics operators. The research problem is to develop a method for measuring the weight of goods in a selected link of the clothing supply chain by drones. However, the purpose of this article is to analyze the causes of errors in traditional measurements, and then to identify adverse events related to the use of drones for the inventory of a heap of textiles intended for production purposes. On this basis, it will be possible to develop guidelines to eliminate the causes of these events in the measurement process using drones. In a real environment, work was carried out to determine the volume and weight of textiles, including, among others, weighing a textile sample to determine the average density of the assortment, establishing a local geodetic network, terrestrial laser scanning and photogrammetric raid using an unmanned aerial vehicle. As a result of the analysis of measurement data obtained in the facility, the volume and weight of the assortment and the accuracy of their determination were determined. In this article, this work presents how such heaps are currently being tested, what adverse events occur, indicate and describes the current use of photogrammetric techniques of this type of measurements so far performed by external drones for the inventory of wind farms or construction of the station and compare them with the measurement system of the aforementioned textile heap inside a large-format facility.

Keywords: drones, unmanned aerial system, UAS, indoor system, security, process automation, cost optimization, photogrammetry, risk elimination, industry 4.0

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Authors: Jawaher F. Alsharef, Abdullah A. Ghaddaf, Mohammed S. Alomari, Abdullah A. Al Qurashi, Ahmed S. Abdulhamid, Mohammed S. Alshehri, Majed Alosaimi

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Botulinum toxin type A (BTX-A) is the most popular therapeutic agent for muscle relaxation and pain control. Lately, BTX-A injection received great interest as a part of multimodal pain management for lower limb lengthening and deformity correction. This systematic review aimed to determine the role of BTX-A injection in pain management for during lower limb lengthening and/or deformity correction. We searched Medline, Embase, and CENTRAL. We included randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that compared the BTX-A injection to placebo for individuals undergoing lower limb lengthening and/or deformity correction. We sought to evaluate the following outcomes: pain on visual analogue scale (VAS), range of motion parameters, average opioid consumption, and adverse events. The standardized mean difference (SMD) was used to represent continuous outcomes while risk ratio (RR) was used to represent dichotomous outcomes. A total of 4 RCTs that enrolled 257 participants (337 limbs) deemed eligible. Adjuvant BTX-A injection showed a significant reduction in post-operative pain compared to placebo (SMD=–0.28, 95% CI –0.53 to –0.04). No difference was found between BTX-A injection and placebo in terms of range of motion parameters, average opioid consumption, or adverse events after surgical limb lengthening and/or deformity correction (RR= 0.77, 95% CI –0.58 to 1.03). Conclusions: Adjuvant BTX-A injection conferred a discernible reduction in post-operative pain during surgical limb lengthening and/or deformity without increasing the risk of adverse events.

Keywords: botulinum toxin type A, limb lengthening, distraction osteogenesis, deformity correction, pain management

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Authors: Carrie Ho, Tan Yee Yong

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Urban runoff quality for a mixed residential-commercial land use catchment in Miri, Sarawak was investigated for three storm events in 2011. Samples from the three storm events were tested for five water quality parameters, Namely, TSS, COD, BOD5, TP, and Pb. Concentration of the pollutants were found to vary significantly between storms, but were generally influenced by the length of antecedent dry period and the strength of rainfall intensities. Runoff from the study site showed a significant level of pollution for all the parameters investigated. Based on the National Water Quality Standards for Malaysia (NWQS), stormwater quality from the study site was polluted and exceeded class III water for TSS and BOD5 with maximum EMCs of 177 and 24 mg/L, respectively. Design pollutant load based on a design storm of 3-month average recurrence interval (ARI) for TSS, COD, BOD5, TP, and Pb were estimated to be 40, 9.4, 5.4, 1.7, and 0.06 kg/ha, respectively. The design pollutant load for the pollutants can be used to estimate loadings from similar catchments within Miri City.

Keywords: mixed land-use, urban runoff, pollutant load, national water quality

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Authors: Nicolas Cuevas-Alvear

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The subject of this paper is the concept of interpretation. Its purpose is to expose the need for a new concept of interpretation and to trace the construction route of interpretation as determination and negotiation. The thesis it defends is that interpretation is the determination of events and the negotiation of those determinations in communication. To meet its objective, this manuscript is divided into five sections. The first section introduces the subject and the need for a new concept of interpretation. The second section explicitly formulates the research questions and the objectives of the project for the construction of a new concept of interpretation. The third section presents the state of the art, specifically, the theory of Radical interpretation proposed by Donald Davidson and the theory of the Hermeneutic Circle proposed by Hans Georg Gadamer. In addition, in this section, there is a reconstruction of Ernst Cassirer's explanation of language as a symbolic form. The fourth section is an explanation of the proposal based on the theories presented. Specifically: language as a symbolic form explains interpretation as a determination of events using objective, subjective and intersubjective elements, and these three elements are negotiated in interpretation as communication. The last section is the bibliography proposed to carry out the project.

Keywords: interpretation, metaphysics, semantics, Donald Davidson, ERNST Cassirer

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Authors: Kedar Baral

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This study was carried out in Mustang, Kaski, Tanahun, Baitadi, and Jhapa districts of Nepal. The study explored the spatial and temporal pattern of HWC, socio economic factors associated with it, impacts of conflict on life / livelihood of people and survival of wildlife species, and impact of climate change and forest fire onHWC. Study also evaluated people’s attitude towards wildlife conservation and assessed relevant policies and programs. Questionnaire survey was carried out with the 250 respondents, and both socio-demographic and HWC related information werecollected. Secondary information were collected from Divisional Forest Offices and Annapurna Conservation Area Project.HWC events were grouped by season /months/sites (forest type, distances from forest, and settlement), and the coordinates of the events were exported to ArcGIS. Collected data were analyzed using descriptive statistics in Excel and R Program. A total of 1465 events were recorded in 5 districts during 2015 and 2019. Out of that, livestock killing, crop damage, human attack, and cattle shed damage events were 70 %, 12%, 11%, and 7%, respectively. Among 151 human attack cases, 23 people were killed, and 128 were injured. Elephant in Terai, common leopard and monkey in Middle Mountain, and snow leopard in high mountains were found as major problematic animals. Common leopard attacks were found more in the autumn, evening, and on human settlement area. Whereas elephant attacks were found higher in winter, day time, and on farmland. Poor people farmers were found highly victimized, and they were losing 26% of their income due to crop raiding and livestock depredation. On the other hand, people are killing many wildlife in revenge, and this number is increasing every year. Based on the people's perception, climate change is causing increased temperature and forest fire events and decreased water sources within the forest. Due to the scarcity of food and water within forests, wildlife are compelled to dwell at human settlement area, hence HWC events are increasing. Nevertheless, more than half of the respondents were found positive about conserving entire wildlife species. Forests outside PAs are under the community forestry (CF) system, which restored the forest, improved the habitat, and increased the wildlife.However, CF policies and programs were found to be more focused on forest management with least priority on wildlife conservation and HWC mitigation. Compensation / relief scheme of government for wildlife damage was found some how effective to manage HWC, but the lengthy process, being applicable to the damage of few wildlife species and highly increasing events made it necessary to revisit. Based on these facts, the study suggest to carry out awareness generation activities to the poor farmers, linking the property of people with the insurance scheme, conducting habitat management activities within CF, promoting the unpalatable crops, improvement of shed house of livestock, simplifying compensation scheme and establishing a fund at the district level and incorporating the wildlife conservation and HWCmitigation programs in CF. Finally, the study suggests to carry out rigorous researches to understand the impacts of current forest management practices on forest, biodiversity, wildlife, and HWC.

Keywords: community forest, conflict mitigation, wildlife conservation, climate change

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Authors: Bridgette Merriman, Wen Fan

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Background: Existing cancer survivorship literature explores varying physical, psychosocial, and psychological late effects experienced by survivors of childhood cancer. However, adolescent and young adult (AYA) survivors of childhood cancer are understudied compared to their adult and pediatric cancer counterparts. Furthermore, existing quality of life (QoL) research fails to account for how cancer survivorship affects survivors across the lifespan. Given that prior research suggests positive cognitive appraisals of adverse events - such as cancer - mitigate detrimental psychosocial symptomologies later in life; it is crucial to understand cancer’s impacts on AYA survivors of childhood malignancies across the life course in order to best support these individuals and prevent maladaptive psychosocial outcomes. Methods: This qualitative study adopted the life-course perspective to investigate the experiences of AYA survivors of childhood malignancies. Eligible patients included AYA 21-30 years old who were diagnosed with cancer <18 years old and off active treatment for >2 years. Participants were recruited through social media posts. Study fulfillment included taking part in one semi-structured video interview to explore areas of survivorship previously identified as being specific to AYA survivors. Interviews were transcribed, coded, and analyzed in accordance with narrative analysis and life-course theory. This study was approved by the Boston College Institutional Review Board. Results: Of 28 individuals who met inclusion criteria and expressed interest in the study, nineteen participants (12 women, 7 men, mean age 25.4 years old) completed the study. Life course theory analysis revealed that events relating to childhood cancer are interconnected throughout the life course rather than isolated events. This “trail of survivorship” includes age at diagnosis, transitioning to life after cancer, and relationships with other childhood survivors. Despite variability in objective characteristics surrounding these events, participants recalled positive experiences regarding at least one checkpoint, ultimately finding positive meaning from their cancer experience. Conclusions: These findings suggest that favorable subjective experiences at these checkpoints are critical in fostering positive conceptions of childhood malignancy for AYA survivors of childhood cancer. Ultimately, healthcare professionals and communities may use these findings to guide support resources and interventions for childhood cancer patients and AYA survivors, therein minimizing detrimental psychosocial effects and maximizing resiliency.

Keywords: medical sociology, pediatric oncology, survivorship, qualitative, life course perspective

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Authors: Euripides Antoniades

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In 1821, the Greek Revolution movement, under the political influence that arose from the French revolution, and the corresponding movements in Italy, Germany and America, demanded the liberation of the nation and the establishment of an independent national state. Published topics in the British press regarding the Greek Revolution, focused on: a)the right of the Greeks to claim their freedom from Turkish domination in order to establish an independent state based on the principle of national autonomy, b)criticism regarding Turkish rule as illegal and the power of the Ottoman Sultan as arbitrary, c)the recognition of the Greek identity and its distinction from the Turkish one and d)the endorsement Greeks as the descendants of ancient Greeks. The London Times is a print publication that presents, in chronological or thematic order, the news, opinions or announcements about the most important events that have occurred in a place during a specified period of time. A combination of qualitative and quantitative content analysis was applied. An attempt was made to record Greek Revolution references along with the usage of specific words and expressions that contribute to the representation of the historical events and their exposure to the reading public. Key finds of this research reveal that a)there was a frequency of passionate daily articles concerning the events in Greece, their length, and context in The Times of London, b)he British public opinion was influenced by this particular newspaper and c) he newspaper published various news about the revolution by adopting the role of animator of the Greek struggle. In fact, this type of news was the main substance of the The London Times’ structure, establishing a positive image about the Greek Revolution contributing to the European diplomatic development. These factors offered a change in the attitude of the British and Russians respectively assuming a positive approach towards Greece.

Keywords: Greece, revolution, press, the london times, great britain, mass media

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Authors: Umair Shoukat Ali, Rashna Hoshang Sukhia, Mubassar Fida

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Introduction: The objective of the study was to compare outcomes in terms of Bleeding index (BI), Gingival Index (GI), and Orthodontic Plaque Index (OPI) with video graphics and plaque disclosing tablets (PDT) versus verbal instructions in adult orthodontic patients undergoing fixed appliance treatment (FAT). Materials and Methods: Adult orthodontic patients have recruited from outpatient orthodontic clinics who fulfilled the inclusion criteria and were randomly allocated to three groups i.e., video, PDT, and verbal groups. We included patients undergoing FAT for six months of both genders with all teeth bonded mesial to first molars having no co-morbid conditions such as rheumatic fever and diabetes mellitus. Subjects who had gingivitis as assessed by Bleeding Index (BI), Gingival Index (GI), and Orthodontic Plaque Index (OPI) were recruited. We excluded subjects having > 2 mm of clinical attachment loss, pregnant and lactating females, any history of periodontal therapy within the last six months, and any consumption of antibiotics or anti-inflammatory drugs within the last one month. Pre- and post-interventional measurements were taken at two intervals only for BI, GI, and OPI. The primary outcome of this trial was to evaluate the mean change in the BI, GI, and OPI in the three study groups. A computer-generated randomization list was used to allocate subjects to one of the three study groups using a random permuted block sampling of 6 and 9 to randomize the samples. No blinding of the investigator or the participants was performed. Results: A total of 99 subjects were assessed for eligibility, out of which 96 participants were randomized as three of the participants declined to be part of this trial. This resulted in an equal number of participants (32) that were analyzed in all three groups. The mean change in the oral hygiene indices score was assessed, and we found no statistically significant difference among the three interventional groups. Pre- and post-interventional results showed statistically significant improvement in the oral hygiene indices for the video and PDT groups. No statistically significant difference for age, gender, and education level on oral hygiene indices were found. Simple linear regression showed that the video group produced significantly higher mean OPI change as compared to other groups. No harm was observed during the trial. Conclusions: Visual aids performed better as compared to the verbal group. Gender, age, and education level had no statistically significant impact on the oral hygiene indices. Longer follow-ups will be required to see the long-term effects of these interventions. Trial Registration: NCT04386421 Funding: Aga Khan University and Hospital (URC 183022)

Keywords: oral hygiene, orthodontic treatment, adults, randomized clinical trial

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Authors: Nurul Jamilah Binti Rosly

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The typology of motion must be understood as a change from one location to another. But from a conceptual point of view, motion can also occur in non-spatial contexts associated with human and social factors. Therefore, from the conceptual point of view, the concept of non-spatial motion involves the movement of time, ownership, identity, state, and existence. Accordingly, this study will focus on the lexical as shared, accept, be, store, and exist as the study material. The data in this study were extracted from the Database of Languages and Literature Corpus Database, Malaysia, which was analyzed using semantics and syntax concepts using Conceptual Structure Theory - Ray Jackendoff (2002). Semantic representations are represented in the form of conceptual structures in argument functions that include functions [events], [situations], [objects], [paths] and [places]. The findings show that the mapping of these arguments comprises three main stages, namely mapping the argument structure, mapping the tree, and mapping the role of thematic items. Accordingly, this study will show the representation of non- spatial Malay language areas.

Keywords: arguments, concepts, constituencies, events, situations, thematics

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Authors: Arun Prasad

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Introduction: Laparoscopic surgery of hernia started in early 1990 and has had a mixed acceptance across the world, unlike laparoscopic cholecystectomy that has become a gold standard. Laparoscopic hernia repair claims to have less pain, less recurrence, and less wound infection compared to open hernia repair leading to early recovery and return to work. Materials and Methods: Laparoscopic hernia repair has been done in 2100 patients from 1995 till now with a follow-up data of 1350 patients. Data was analysed for results and satisfaction. Results: There is a recurrence rate of 0.1%. Early complications include bleeding, trocar injury and nerve pain. Late complications were rare. Conclusion: Laparoscopic inguinal hernia repair has a steep learning curve but after that the results and patient satisfaction are very good. It should be the procedure of choice in all bilateral and recurrent hernias.

Keywords: laparoscopy, hernia, mesh, surgery

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Authors: Hussain-Abdulah Arjmand, Nikki S. Rickard

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The response to stress can be highly heterogenous, and may be influenced by methodological factors. The integrity of data will be optimized by measuring both positive and negative affective responses to an event, by measuring responses in real time as close to the stressful event as possible, and by utilizing data collection methods that do not interfere with naturalistic behaviours. The aim of the current study was to explore short term prototypical responses to major stressor events on outcome measures encompassing both positive and negative indicators of psychological functioning. A novel mobile experience sampling methodology (m-ESM) was utilized to monitor both effective responses to stressors in real time. A smartphone mental health app (‘Moodprism’) which prompts users daily to report both their positive and negative mood, as well as whether any significant event had occurred in the past 24 hours, was developed for this purpose. A sample of 142 participants was recruited as part of the promotion of this app. Participants’ daily reported experience of stressor events, levels of depressive symptoms and positive affect were collected across a 30 day period as they used the app. For each participant, major stressor events were identified on the subjective severity of the event rated by the user. Depression and positive affect ratings were extracted for the three days following the event. Responses to the event were scaled relative to their general reactivity across the remainder of the 30 day period. Participants were first clustered into groups based on initial reactivity and subsequent recovery following a stressor event. This revealed distinct patterns of responding along depressive symptomatology and positive affect. Participants were then grouped based on allocations to clusters in each outcome variable. A highly individualised nature in which participants respond to stressor events, in symptoms of depression and levels of positive affect, was observed. A complete description of the novel profiles identified will be presented at the conference. These findings suggest that real-time measurement of both positive and negative functioning to stressors yields a more complex set of responses than previously observed with retrospective reporting. The use of smartphone technology to measure individualized responding also proved to shed significant insight.

Keywords: depression, experience sampling methodology, positive functioning, resilience

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Authors: Hamed Mohamed Haggag

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Prior to 12 November 1955, no earthquakes have been reported from the Abu Dabbab area in the International Seismological Center catalogue (ISC). The largest earthquake in Abu Dabbab area occurred on November 12, 1955 with magnitude Mb 6.0. The closest station from the epicenter was at Helwan (about 700 km to the north), so the depth of this event is not constrained and no foreshocks or aftershocks were recorded. Two other earthquakes of magnitude Mb 4.5 and 5.2 took place in the same area on March 02, 1982 and July 02, 1984, respectively. Since the installation of Aswan Seismic Network stations in 1982, (250-300 km to the south-west of Abu Dabbab area) then the Egyptian Natoinal Seismic Network stations, it was possible to record some activity from Abu Dabbab area. The recorded earthquakes at Abu Dabbab area as recorded from 1982 to 2014 shows that the earthquake epicenters are distributed in the same direction of the main trends of the faults in the area, which is parallel to the Red Sea coast. The spectral analysis was made for some earthquakes. The source parameters, seismic moment (Mo), source dimension (r), stress drop (Δδ), and apparent stress (δ) are determined for these events. The spectral analysis technique was completed using MAG software program.

Keywords: Abu Dabbab, seismicity, seismic moment, source parameter

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Authors: Mohadese Oghbaee, Borna Firouzi

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The emergence of the Internet and more specifically the formation of social media has provided the ground for paying attention to new types of content dissemination. In recent years, Social media users share information, communicate with others, and exchange opinions on social events in this space. Many of the information published in this space are suspicious and produced with the intention of deceiving others. These contents are often called "fake news". Fake news, by disrupting the circulation of the concept and similar concepts such as fake news with correct information and misleading public opinion, has the ability to endanger the security of countries and deprive the audience of the basic right of free access to real information; Competing governments, opposition elements, profit-seeking individuals and even competing organizations, knowing about this capacity, act to distort and overturn the facts in the virtual space of the target countries and communities on a large scale and influence public opinion towards their goals. This process of extensive de-truthing of the information space of the societies has created a wave of harm and worries all over the world. The formation of these concerns has led to the opening of a new path of research for the timely containment and reduction of the destructive effects of fake news on public opinion. In addition, the expansion of this phenomenon has the potential to create serious and important problems for societies, and its impact on events such as the 2016 American elections, Brexit, 2017 French elections, 2019 Indian elections, etc., has caused concerns and led to the adoption of approaches It has been dealt with. In recent years, a simple look at the growth trend of research in "Scopus" shows an increasing increase in research with the keyword "false information", which reached its peak in 2020, namely 524 cases, reached, while in 2015, only 30 scientific-research contents were published in this field. Considering that one of the capabilities of social media is to create a context for the dissemination of news and information, both true and false, in this article, the classification of strategies for spreading fake news in social networks was investigated in social events. To achieve this goal, thematic analysis research method was chosen. In this way, an extensive library study was first conducted in global sources. Then, an in-depth interview was conducted with 18 well-known specialists and experts in the field of news and media in Iran. These experts were selected by purposeful sampling. Then by analyzing the data using the theme analysis method, strategies were obtained; The strategies achieved so far (research is in progress) include unrealistically strengthening/weakening the speed and content of the event, stimulating psycho-media movements, targeting emotional audiences such as women, teenagers and young people, strengthening public hatred, calling the reaction legitimate/illegitimate. events, incitement to physical conflict, simplification of violent protests and targeted publication of images and interviews were introduced.

Keywords: fake news, social network, social events, thematic analysis

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Authors: Kirsten A. Bartels

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'Never again' and 'Lest we forget' have long been messages associated with the events of the Shoah. Yet as we attempt to learn from the past, we must find new ways to engage with its memories. The preservation of the culture and the value of tradition are critical factors in Jane Yolen's works of Holocaust fiction, The Devil's Arithmetic and Mapping the Bones, emphasized through the importance of remembering. That word, in its multitude of forms (remember, remembering, memories), occurs no less than ten times in the first four pages and over one hundred times in the one hundred and sixty-four-page narrative The Devil’s Arithmetic. While Yolen takes a different approach to showcasing the importance of memory in Mapping the Bones, it is of equal import in this work and arguably to the future of Holocaust knowing. The idea of remembering, the desire to remember, and the ability to remember, are explored in three divergent ways in The Devil’s Arithmetic. First, in the importance to remember a past which is not her own – to understand history or acquired memories. Second, in the protagonist's actual or initial memories, those of her life in modern-day New York. Third, in a reverse mode of forgetting and trying to reacquire that which has been lost -- as Hannah is processed in the camp and she forgets everything, all worlds prior to the camp are lost to her. As numbers replace names, Yolen stresses the importance of self-identity or owned memories. In addition, the importance of relaying memory, the transitions of memory from perspective, and the ideas of reflective telling are explored in Mapping the Bones -- through the telling of the story through the lens of one of the twins as the events are unfolding; and then the through the reflective telling from the lens of the other twin. Parallel to the exploration of the intersemiosis of memory is the discussion of literary shadows (foreshadowing, backshadowing, and side-shadowing) and their impact on the reader's experience with Yolen's narrative. For in this type of exploration, one cannot look at the events described in Yolen's work and not also contemplate the figurative shadows cast.

Keywords: holocaust literature, memory, narrative, Yolen

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Authors: Danish Gadda

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Kashmir has been a bleeding-spot in the South Asian politics since 1947 when the subcontinent was bifurcated into Hindu, India and Muslim Pakistan by the departing British colonisers. Kashmir couldn’t accede to either of the two new-born, sovereign nations until tribal invasion from Pakistan forced an unfortunate change of events. India, driven by conditional accession signed by the Kashmir’s last monarch, sent its army to defend Kashmir Valley, with a promise, made subsequently, that the region’s fate would be decided by the natives through an internationally-monitored plebiscite. The country, however, broke its promise, choosing not to withdraw its military to allow the plebiscite, and, instead, strengthened its claim over Kashmir, which it later started describing as her integral part. War, fought in the shape of three and a half bloody battles, ensued between India and Pakistan, even as the United Nations’ intervention managed a ceasefire as early as in the 1950s, though not before Kashmir had come to be divided into its India-controlled and Pakistan-controlled halves. Prolonged, the dispute over Kashmir took a violent turn in 1989-90 with the start of an anti-India armed rebellion. Kashmiris have been fighting for their right to self-determination, and bringing their own life to a grinding halt has been one of their preferred forms of protest against the Indian rule. This form of resistance is locally called ‘Hartals’, and recognised as shutdowns, which have often been prolonged and violent. Since 1989-90, the shutdowns have become only more frequent and forceful, and there are marked days on which Kashmir shuts down in protest every year, like a ritual. This paper is based on a study of how the Indian and Kashmir press covered the shutdowns observed in the troubled valley on four such days: January 26 (Indian Republic Day), February 11 (the day on which India executed a prominent Kashmiri resistance leader), August 15 (India’s Independence Day), and October 27 (the day on which the Indian military has landed in Kashmir). The coverage given by the Indian and Kashmiri press to the shutdowns observed on these days has been studied using the multi-tier content analysis approach: 1) Difference in the number of shutdowns covered by the two section is looked at, 2) the placement of the stories in the two section of the press is analysed, 3) the discourse highlighted by the two section of the press is compared, and 4) the editorials written by the two section of the press about the shutdowns are analysed. The findings show the Indian and the local press have been focussing on the two, predictable extremes of the situation: the Indian press has favoured the state, while the Kashmir or the local press has focussed on the narrative opposing the state’s. The difference is noticed in the quantitative as well as the qualitative aspects of their coverage.

Keywords: Indo-Pak tension, Kashmir conflict, protest shutdowns, South-Asian politics

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Authors: Vito Telesca, Giuseppina A. Giorgio, M. Ragosta

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The effects of extreme heat events are increasing in recent years. Humans are forced to adjust themselves to adverse climatic conditions. The impact of weather on human health has become public health significance, especially in light of climate change and rising frequency of devasting weather events (e.g., heat waves and floods). The interest of scientific community is widely known. In particular, the associations between temperature and mortality are well studied. Weather conditions are natural factors that affect the human organism. Recent works show that the temperature threshold at which an impact is seen varies by geographic area and season. These results suggest heat warning criteria should consider local thresholds to account for acclimation to local climatology as well as the seasonal timing of a forecasted heat wave. Therefore, it is very important the problem called ‘local warming’. This is preventable with adequate warning tools and effective emergency planning. Since climate change has the potential to increase the frequency of these types of events, improved heat warning systems are urgently needed. This would require a better knowledge of the full impact of extreme heat on morbidity and mortality. The majority of researchers who analyze the associations between human health and weather variables, investigate the effect of air temperature and bioclimatic indices. These indices combine air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed and are very important to determine the human thermal comfort. Health impact studies of weather events showed that the prevention is an essential element to dramatically reduce the impact of heat waves. The summer Italian of 2012 was characterized with high average temperatures (con un +2.3°C in reference to the period 1971-2000), enough to be considered as the second hottest summer since 1800. Italy was the first among countries in Europe which adopted tools for to predict these phenomena with 72 hours in advance (Heat Health Watch Warning System - HHWWS). Furthermore, in Italy heat alert criteria relies on the different Indexes, for example Apparent temperature, Scharlau index, Thermohygrometric Index, etc. This study examines the importance of developing public health policies that protect the most vulnerable people (such as the elderly) to extreme temperatures, highlighting the factors that confer susceptibility.

Keywords: heat waves, Italy, local warming, temperature

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Authors: Deborah Weidner, Melissa Morgera

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The model of care delivery in the Behavioral Health Network (BHN) is integrated across all five regions of Hartford Healthcare and thus spans the entirety of the state of Connecticut, with care provided in seven inpatient settings and over 30 ambulatory outpatient locations. While safety has been a core priority of the BHN in alignment with High Reliability practices, safety initiatives have historically been facilitated locally in each region or within each entity, with interventions implemented locally as opposed to throughout the network. To address this, the BHN introduced a network wide Safety Huddle during 2022. Launched in January, the BHN Safety Huddle brought together internal stakeholders, including medical and administrative leaders, along with executive institute leadership, quality, and risk management. By bringing leaders together and introducing a network-wide safety huddle into the way we work, the benefit has been an increase in awareness of safety events occurring in behavioral health areas as well as increased systemization of countermeasures to prevent future events. One significant discussion topic presented in huddles has pertained to environmental design and patient access to potentially dangerous items, addressing some of the most relevant factors resulting in harm to patients in inpatient and emergency settings for behavioral health patients. The safety huddle has improved visibility of potential environmental safety risks through the generation of over 15 safety alerts cascaded throughout the BHN and also spurred a rapid improvement project focused on standardization of patient belonging searches to reduce patient access to potentially dangerous items on inpatient units. Safety events pertaining to potentially dangerous items decreased by 31% as a result of standardized interventions implemented across the network and as a result of increased awareness. A second positive outcome originating from the BHN Safety Huddle was implementation of a recommendation to increase the emergency Narcan®(naloxone) supply on hand in ambulatory settings of the BHN after incidents involving accidental overdose resulted in higher doses of naloxone administration. By increasing the emergency supply of naloxone on hand in all ambulatory and residential settings, colleagues are better prepared to respond in an emergency situation should a patient experience an overdose while on site. Lastly, discussions in safety huddle spurred a new initiative within the BHN to improve responsiveness to assaultive incidents through a consultation service. This consult service, aligned with one of the network’s improvement priorities to reduce harm events related to assaultive incidents, was borne out of discussion in huddle in which it was identified that additional interventions may be needed in providing clinical care to patients who are experiencing multiple and/ or frequent safety events.

Keywords: quality, safety, behavioral health, risk management

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Authors: Thabo M. Bafitlhile, Adewole Oladele

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Botswana has been affected by floods since long ago and is still experiencing this tragic event. Flooding occurs mostly in the North-West, North-East, and parts of Central district due to heavy rainfalls experienced in these areas. The torrential rains destroyed homes, roads, flooded dams, fields and destroyed livestock and livelihoods. Palapye is one area in the central district that has been experiencing floods ever since 1995 when its greatest flood on record occurred. Heavy storms result in floods and inundation; this has been exacerbated by poor and absence of drainage structures. Since floods are a part of nature, they have existed and will to continue to exist, hence more destruction. Furthermore floods and highway plays major role in erosion and destruction of roads structures. Already today, many culverts, trenches, and other drainage facilities lack the capacity to deal with current frequency for extreme flows. Future changes in the pattern of hydro climatic events will have implications for the design and maintenance costs of roads. Increase in rainfall and severe weather events can affect the demand for emergent responses. Therefore flood forecasting and warning is a prerequisite for successful mitigation of flood damage. In flood prone areas like Palapye, preventive measures should be taken to reduce possible adverse effects of floods on the environment including road structures. Therefore this paper attempts to estimate return periods associated with huge storms of different magnitude from recorded historical rainfall depth using statistical method. The method of annual maxima was used to select data sets for the rainfall analysis. In the statistical method, the Type 1 extreme value (Gumbel), Log Normal, Log Pearson 3 distributions were all applied to the annual maximum series for Palapye area to produce IDF curves. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and Chi Squared were used to confirm the appropriateness of fitted distributions for the location and the data do fit the distributions used to predict expected frequencies. This will be a beneficial tool for urgent flood forecasting and water resource administration as proper drainage design will be design based on the estimated flood events and will help to reclaim and protect the road structures from adverse impacts of flood.

Keywords: drainage, estimate, evaluation, floods, flood forecasting

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