Search results for: accident risks estimation

Authors: Endrik Mifta Shaiful, Firman Riyudha

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Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS) is one of the world's deadliest diseases caused by the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) that infects white blood cells and cause a decline in the immune system. AIDS quickly became a world epidemic disease that affects almost all countries. Therefore, mathematical modeling approach to the spread of HIV and AIDS is needed to anticipate the spread of HIV and AIDS which are widespread. The purpose of this study is to determine the parameter estimation on mathematical models of HIV transmission and AIDS using cumulative data of people with HIV and AIDS each year in Indonesia. In this model, there are parameters of r ∈ [0,1) which is the effectiveness of the treatment in patients with HIV. If the value of r is close to 1, the number of people with HIV and AIDS will decline toward zero. The estimation results indicate when the value of r is close to unity, there will be a significant decline in HIV patients, whereas in AIDS patients constantly decreases towards zero.

Keywords: HIV, AIDS, parameter estimation, mathematical models

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Authors: Sahar Tabarroki, Ahad Nazari

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The design process is one of the most key project processes in the construction industry. Although architects have the responsibility to produce complete, accurate, and coordinated documents, architectural design is accompanied by many errors. A design error occurs when the constraints and requirements of the design are not satisfied. Errors are potentially costly and time-consuming to correct if not caught early during the design phase, and they become expensive in either construction documents or in the construction phase. The aim of this research is to identify the risk factors of architectural design errors, so identification of risks is necessary. First, a literature review in the design process was conducted and then a questionnaire was designed to identify the risks and risk factors. The questions in the form of the questionnaire were based on the “similar service description of study and supervision of architectural works” published by “Vice Presidency of Strategic Planning & Supervision of I.R. Iran” as the base of architects’ tasks. Second, the top 10 risks of architectural activities were identified. To determine the positions of possible causes of risks with respect to architectural activities, these activities were located in a design process modeled by the IDEF0 technique. The research was carried out by choosing a case study, checking the design drawings, interviewing its architect and client, and providing a checklist in order to identify the concrete examples of architectural design errors. The results revealed that activities such as “defining the current and future requirements of the project”, “studies and space planning,” and “time and cost estimation of suggested solution” has a higher error risk than others. Moreover, the most important causes include “unclear goals of a client”, “time force by a client”, and “lack of knowledge of architects about the requirements of end-users”. For error detecting in the case study, lack of criteria, standards and design criteria, and lack of coordination among them, was a barrier, anyway, “lack of coordination between architectural design and electrical and mechanical facility”, “violation of the standard dimensions and sizes in space designing”, “design omissions” were identified as the most important design errors.

Keywords: architectural design, design error, risk management, risk factor

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Authors: Osama A. Omer, Amal Hamed

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Successful blind image Super-Resolution algorithms require the exact estimation of the Point Spread Function (PSF). In the absence of any prior information about the imagery system and the true image; this estimation is normally done by trial and error experimentation until an acceptable restored image quality is obtained. Multi-frame blind Super-Resolution algorithms often have disadvantages of slow convergence and sensitiveness to complex noises. This paper presents a Super-Resolution image reconstruction algorithm based on estimation of the PSF that yields the optimum restored image quality. The estimation of PSF is performed by the knife-edge method and it is implemented by measuring spreading of the edges in the reproduced HR image itself during the reconstruction process. The proposed image reconstruction approach is using L1 norm minimization and robust regularization based on a bilateral prior to deal with different data and noise models. A series of experiment results show that the proposed method can outperform other previous work robustly and efficiently.

Keywords: blind, PSF, super-resolution, knife-edge, blurring, bilateral, L1 norm

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Authors: Sergio Haram Sarmiento, Arcady Ponosov

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Based on appropriate multivariate statistical methodology, we suggest a generic framework for efficient parameter estimation for ordinary differential equations and the corresponding nonlinear models. In this framework classical linear regression strategies is refined into a nonlinear regression by a locally linear modelling technique (known as metamodelling). The approach identifies those latent variables of the given model that accumulate most information about it among all approximations of the same dimension. The method is applied to several benchmark problems, in particular, to the so-called ”power-law systems”, being non-linear differential equations typically used in Biochemical System Theory.

Keywords: principal component analysis, generalized law of mass action, parameter estimation, metamodels

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Authors: Faisal Zaman, Ya Ping Wong, Boon Yian Ng

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Point cloud source data for surface reconstruction is usually contaminated with noise and outliers. To overcome this, we present a novel approach using modified kernel density estimation (KDE) technique with bilateral filtering to remove noisy points and outliers. First we present a method for estimating optimal bandwidth of multivariate KDE using particle swarm optimization technique which ensures the robust performance of density estimation. Then we use mean-shift algorithm to find the local maxima of the density estimation which gives the centroid of the clusters. Then we compute the distance of a certain point from the centroid. Points belong to outliers then removed by automatic thresholding scheme which yields an accurate and economical point surface. The experimental results show that our approach comparably robust and efficient.

Keywords: point preprocessing, outlier removal, surface reconstruction, kernel density estimation

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Authors: J. R. Wang, H. T. Lin, Y. Chiang, H. C. Chen, C. Shih

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Kuosheng Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) is located on the northern coast of Taiwan. Its nuclear steam supply system is a type of BWR/6 designed and built by General Electric on a twin unit concept. First, the methodology of Kuosheng NPP SPU (Stretch Power Uprate) safety analysis TRACE/SNAP model was developed in this research. Then, in order to estimate the safety of Kuosheng NPP under the more severe condition, the SBO (Station Blackout) + LOCA (Loss-of-Coolant Accident) transient analysis of Kuosheng NPP SPU TRACE/SNAP model was performed. Besides, the animation model of Kuosheng NPP was presented using the animation function of SNAP with TRACE/SNAP analysis results.

Keywords: TRACE, safety analysis, BWR/6, severe accident

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Authors: Ikumapayi Catherine Mayowa

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The well-being of humans on a construction site is critical; abundant manpower had been lost through accidents which kill or make workers physically unfit to carry out construction activities, these, in turn, have multiple effects on the whole economy. Thus, it is necessary to put all safety items and regulations in place before construction activities can commence. This study was carried out in the Ondo state of Nigeria to investigate and analyze the state of health and safety of construction workers in the state. The study was done using first-hand observations, 50 construction project sites were visited in ten major towns of Ondo state, questionnaires were distributed, and the results were analyzed. The result shows that construction workers are being exposed to many construction site hazards due to lack of inadequate safety programs and lack of appropriate safety equipment for workers on site. From the data gotten from each site visited and the statistical analysis, it can be concluded that occurrences of an accident on construction sites depend significantly on the available safety facilities on the sites. The result of the regression statistics shows that the dependence of the frequency of occurrence of an accident on the availability of safety items on the site is 0.0362 which is less than 0.05 maximum significant level allowed. Therefore, a vital way of sustaining our building strategy is given a detail attention to the provision of adequate health and safety items on construction sites which will reduce the occurrence of accident, loss of manpower and death of skilled workers.

Keywords: construction sites, health, safety, welfare

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Authors: Min-Su Song, Haeng-Bok Kil, Eui-Rim Jeong

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This paper proposes a new method to reduce the overhead by pilots for single carrier frequency domain equalization (SC-FDE) transmission. In the conventional SC-FDE transmission structure, the overhead by transmitting pilot is heavy because the pilot are transmitted at every SC-FDE block. The proposed SC-FDE structure has fewer pilots and many SC-FCE blocks are transmitted between pilots. The channel estimation and equalization is performed at the pilot period and the channels between pilots are estimated through linear interpolation. This reduces the pilot overhead by reducing the pilot transmission compared with the conventional structure, and enables reliable channel estimation and equalization.

Keywords: channel estimation, linear interpolation, pilot overhead, SC-FDE

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Authors: Valeria Bondarenko

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In this paper, we propose two problems related to fractal Brownian motion. First problem is simultaneous estimation of two parameters, Hurst exponent and the volatility, that describe this random process. Numerical tests for the simulated fBm provided an efficient method. Second problem is approximation of the increments of the observed time series by a power function by increments from the fractional Brownian motion. Approximation and estimation are shown on the example of real data, daily deposit interest rates.

Keywords: fractional Brownian motion, Gausssian processes, approximation, time series, estimation of properties of the model

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Authors: Oğuzhan Urhan

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In this paper, an improved motion estimation (ME) approach based on weighted constrained one-bit transform is proposed for block-based ME employed in video encoders. Binary ME approaches utilize low bit-depth representation of the original image frames with a Boolean exclusive-OR based hardware efficient matching criterion to decrease computational burden of the ME stage. Weighted constrained one-bit transform (WC‑1BT) based approach improves the performance of conventional C-1BT based ME employing 2-bit depth constraint mask instead of a 1-bit depth mask. In this work, the range of constraint mask is further extended to increase ME performance of WC-1BT approach. Experiments reveal that the proposed method provides better ME accuracy compared existing similar ME methods in the literature.

Keywords: fast motion estimation; low-complexity motion estimation, video coding

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Authors: Farah Fazlinda Binti Mohamad, Ahmad Saifizul Abdullah, Mohamed Rehan Karim , Jamilah Mohamad, Siti Hikmah Musthar

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Road safety is an important issue in Malaysia. It become important as it is discussed widely throughout printed and electronic media. Most of the news portrays on road accident and fatalities have increased the concern of everyone. This issue affects everyone's life as everyone shares the roads. The most vulnerable victims are the road user who uses the roads every day. It is appalling when World Health Organization (WHO) reported that in every 100,000 of population in Malaysia, 23 fatalities recorded due to road accident alone. This figure is quite alarming and requires serious attention. Furthermore, research by Malaysian Institute of Road Safety Research concluded that that speeding has contributed to 60% of all road accident in the country. Therefore, this study aims to elucidate the factors that influence road users’ speeding behaviour on selected roads in Peninsular Malaysia. To achieve this, set of questionnaires has distributed to 500 respondents on selected roads in Peninsular Malaysia. The respondents came from various demographic backgrounds in order to have a fair opinion on the issue. Using descriptive analysis, the results have indicated that psychological factors such as emotion and attitude of road user are the prominent factors that influence the road user’s speeding behaviour. Furthermore, the results have shown that male road users were dominant in speeding compared to female, which led to increased vulnerability to road injuries and fatalities. These findings are very useful in order for us to understand road users’ driving behaviour. Relevant authorities should also revise the existing countermeasures and find ways to reduce road accident. Engineers and road experts could cooperate in designing new road specifications for the road user. Nevertheless, it is important to comprehend this speeding issue and factors associated with it. Each road user should take this matter seriously and responsibly as road safety is a responsibility of all.

Keywords: countermeasures, psychological, road safety, speeding

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Authors: Minami Ito, Akihiro Iijima

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On March 11, 2011, the Great East Japan Earthquake occurred off the coast of Sanriku, Japan. It is important to build a sustainable society through the reconstruction process rather than simply restoring the infrastructure. To compare the goals of reconstruction plans of quake-stricken municipalities, Japanese language morphological analysis was performed by using text mining techniques. Frequently-used nouns were sorted into four main categories of “life”, “disaster prevention”, “economy”, and “harmony with environment”. Because Soma City is affected by nuclear accident, sentences tagged to “harmony with environment” tended to be frequent compared to the other municipalities. Results from cluster analysis and principle component analysis clearly indicated that the local government reinforces the efforts to reduce risks from radiation exposure as a top priority.

Keywords: eco-friendly reconstruction, harmony with environment, decontamination, nuclear disaster

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Authors: Getaneh Berie Tarekegn

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Wireless communication via unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) has drawn a great deal of attention due to its flexibility in establishing line-of-sight (LoS) communications. However, in complex urban and dynamic environments, the movement of UAVs can be blocked by trees and high-rise buildings that obstruct directional paths. With reconfigurable intelligent surfaces (RIS), this problem can be effectively addressed. To achieve this goal, accurate channel estimation in RIS-assisted UAV-enabled wireless communications is crucial. This paper proposes an accurate channel estimation model using long short-term memory (LSTM) for a multi-user RIS-assisted UAV-enabled wireless communication system. According to simulation results, LSTM can improve the channel estimation performance of RIS-assisted UAV-enabled wireless communication.

Keywords: channel estimation, reconfigurable intelligent surfaces, long short-term memory, unmanned aerial vehicles

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Authors: L. Korpinen, R. Pääkkönen, F. Gobba

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Accidents and close call situations involving cell phones are nowadays possible. The objective of this study was to investigate the accidents and close call situations due to cell phone use while moving, driving, and working among Finns aged between 18 and 65. This work is part of a large cross-sectional study that was carried out on 15,000 working-age Finns. About 26% of people who had an accident, and about half of the people including close call situation with the mobile phone, answered that use of the phone influenced. In the future, it is important to take into account that the use of a mobile phone can be distracting while driving.

Keywords: blue-collar workers, accident, cell phone, close call situation

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Authors: Saima Ali, Pathamanathan Rajeev, Imteaz A. Monzur

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In this paper, a brief review of the corrosion mechanism in buried pipe and modes of failure is provided together with the available corrosion models. Moreover, the sensitivity analysis is performed to understand the influence of corrosion model parameters on the remaining life estimation. Further, the probabilistic analysis is performed to propagate the uncertainty in the corrosion model on the estimation of the renaming life of the pipe. Finally, the comparison among the corrosion models on the basis of the remaining life estimation will be provided to improve the renewal plan.

Keywords: corrosion, pit depth, sensitivity analysis, exposure period

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Authors: Felix Baumann, Aleksandar Milutinovic, Dieter Roller

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Up to this point business process management projects in general and business process modelling projects in particular could not rely on a practical and scientifically validated method to estimate cost and effort. Especially the model development phase is not covered by a cost estimation method or model. Further phases of business process modelling starting with implementation are covered by initial solutions which are discussed in the literature. This article proposes a method of filling this gap by deriving a cost estimation method from available methods in similar domains namely software development or software engineering. Software development is regarded as closely similar to process modelling as we show. After the proposition of this method different ideas for further analysis and validation of the method are proposed. We derive this method from COCOMO II and Function Point which are established methods of effort estimation in the domain of software development. For this we lay out similarities of the software development rocess and the process of process modelling which is a phase of the Business Process Management life-cycle.

Keywords: COCOMO II, busines process modeling, cost estimation method, BPM COCOMO

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Authors: Saleh Alzahrani, Halim Boussabaine

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The majority of Public Private Partnership (PPP) are developed based on the rationale that the design, construction, operation, and financing of a public project is to be awarded to a private party within a single contractual framework. PPP project risks normally include the development and construction of a new asset as well as its operation for decades. Undoubtedly the most serious consequences of risks during the construction period are price and time overruns. These events are amongst the most broadly used scenarios in value for money analysis risks. The sources of risk change over the life cycle of a PPP project. In traditional procurement, the public sector normally has to cover all price distress from these risks. At least there is plenty evidence to suggest that price distress is a norm in some of the projects that are delivered under traditional procurement. This paper will find the impact of construction risk factors into actual construction price into PPP projects. The paper will present a brief literature review on PPP risk pricing strategies, and then using system dynamics (SD) to analyses of the risks associated with the estimated project price. Based on the finding from these analyses a risk pricing association model is presented and discussed. The paper concludes with thoughts for future research.

Keywords: Public Private Partnership (PPP), Risk, Risk Pricing, System Dynamics (SD), construction price

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Authors: Ekin Ozer

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Assessment of structural reliability is essential for efficient use of civil infrastructure which is subjected hazardous events. Dynamic analysis of finite element models is a commonly used tool to simulate structural behavior and estimate its performance accordingly. However, theoretical models purely based on preliminary assumptions and design drawings may deviate from the actual behavior of the structure. This study proposes up-to-date reliability estimation procedures which engages actual bridge vibration data modifying finite element models for finite element model updating and performing reliability estimation, accordingly. The proposed method utilizes vibration response measurements of bridge structures to identify modal parameters, then uses these parameters to calibrate finite element models which are originally based on design drawings. The proposed method does not only show that reliability estimation based on updated models differs from the original models, but also infer that non-updated models may overestimate the structural capacity.

Keywords: earthquake engineering, engineering vibrations, reliability estimation, structural health monitoring

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Authors: Shih-Kuei Lin

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The characterization of the arbitrage-free dynamics of interest rates is developed in this study under the presence of Markov jump risks, when the term structure of the interest rates is modeled through simple forward rates. We consider Markov jump risks by allowing randomness in jump sizes, independence between jump sizes and jump times. The Markov jump diffusion model is used to capture empirical phenomena and to accurately describe interest jump risks in a financial market. We derive the arbitrage-free model of simple forward rates under the spot measure. Moreover, the analytical pricing formulas for a cap and a floor are derived under the forward measure when the jump size follows a lognormal distribution. In our empirical analysis, we find that the LIBOR market model with Markov jump risk better accounts for changes from/to different states and different rates.

Keywords: arbitrage-free, cap and floor, Markov jump diffusion model, simple forward rate model, volatility smile, EM algorithm

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Authors: Ezgi Nevruz, Kasirga Yildirak, Ashis SenGupta

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Comparing or ranking risks is the main motivating factor behind the human trait of making choices. Cumulative prospect theory (CPT) is a preference theory approach that evaluates perception and bias in decision making under risk and uncertainty. We aim to investigate the aggregate claims of different risk classes in terms of their comparability and amenability to ordering when the impact of risk perception is considered. For this aim, we prioritize the aggregate claims taken as actuarial risks by using various stochastic ordering relations. In order to prioritize actuarial risks, we use stochastic relations such as stochastic dominance and stop-loss dominance that are proposed in the frame of partial order theory. We take into account the dependency of the individual claims exposed to similar environmental risks. At first, we modify the zero-utility premium principle in order to obtain a solution for the stop-loss premium under CPT. Then, we propose a stochastic stop-loss dominance of the aggregate claims and find a relation between the stop-loss dominance and the first-order stochastic dominance under the dependence assumption by using properties of the familiar as well as some emerging multivariate claim distributions.

Keywords: cumulative prospect theory, partial order theory, risk perception, stochastic dominance, stop-loss dominance

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Authors: Hui Wu, Ye Li

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Applying the structural break estimation method proposed by Perron and Bai (1998) to the housing price growth rate of top 5 MSAs in the Texas area, this paper estimated the structural break date for the growth rate of housing prices index. As shown in the estimation results, the break dates for each region are quite different, which indicates the heterogeneity of the housing market in response to macroeconomic conditions.

Keywords: structural break, housing prices index, ADF test, linear model

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Authors: Érick Aragão Ribeiro, George André Pereira Thé, José Marques Soares

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Several problems in industrial supervision software development projects may lead to the delay or cancellation of projects. These problems can be avoided or contained by using identification methods, analysis and control of risks. These procedures can give an overview of the possible problems that can happen in the projects and what are the immediate solutions. Therefore, we propose a risk management method applied to the teaching and development of industrial supervision software. The method is developed through a literature review and previous projects can be divided into phases of management and have basic features that are validated with experimental research carried out by mechatronics engineering students and professionals. The management is conducted through the stages of identification, analysis, planning, monitoring, control and communication of risks. Programmers use a method of prioritizing risks considering the gravity and the possibility of occurrence of the risk. The outputs of the method indicate which risks occurred or are about to happen. The first results indicate which risks occur at different stages of the project and what risks have a high probability of occurring. The results show the efficiency of the proposed method compared to other methods, showing the improvement of software quality and leading developers in their decisions. This new way of developing supervision software helps students identify design problems, evaluate software developed and propose effective solutions. We conclude that the risk management optimizes the development of the industrial process control software and provides higher quality to the product.

Keywords: supervision software, risk management, industrial supervision, project management

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Authors: Alfredo Soeiro

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Rehabilitation in construction or built environment is a particular type of operations when concerning prevention of accidents. In fact, it is also a different type of task in construction itself. Therefore, due to the complex characteristics of construction rehabilitation tasks and due to the intrinsic difficulty of preventing accidents in construction, a major challenge faces the responsibility for implementing adequate safety levels in this type of safety management. This paper addresses a set of proposed generic measures to face the unknown characteristics of built environment in terms of stability, materials and actual performance of buildings or other constructions. It is also addressed the necessary adaptation of preventive guidelines to this type of delicate refurbishing and renovating of existing facilities. Training, observation and reflective approaches are necessary to perform this safety management in the rehabilitation of built environment.

Keywords: built environment, rehabilitation, construction safety, accident prevention, safety plan

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Authors: Ritsuko Kawasaki (Aiba), Takeshi Hiromatsu

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Management is required to understand all information security risks within an organization, and to make decisions on which information security risks should be treated in what level by allocating how much amount of cost. However, such decision-making is not usually easy, because various measures for risk treatment must be selected with the suitable application levels. In addition, some measures may have objectives conflicting with each other. It also makes the selection difficult. Moreover, risks generally have trends and it also should be considered in risk treatment. Therefore, this paper provides the extension of the model proposed in the previous study. The original model supports the selection of measures by applying a combination of weighted average method and goal programming method for multi-objective analysis to find an optimal solution. The extended model includes the notion of weights to the risks, and the larger weight means the priority of the risk.

Keywords: information security risk treatment, selection of risk measures, risk acceptance, multi-objective optimization

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Authors: Alfred Kamate Siviri, Angelus Mafikiri Tsongo, Jean Robert Kala Kamdjoug

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Digitalization and information systems well organized have been selected as relevant measures to mitigate operational risks within organizations. Unfortunately, information system comes with new threats that can cause severe damage and quick organization lockout. This study aims to measure perceived information system risks and their effects on operational risks within the microfinance institution in D.R. Congo. Also, the factors influencing the operational risk are identified, and the link between operational risk with other risks and performance is to be assessed. The study proposes a research model drawn on the combination of Resources-Based-View, dynamic capabilities, the agency theory, the Information System Security Model, and social theories of risk. Therefore, we suggest adopting a mixed methods research with the sole aim of increasing the literature that already exists on perceived operational risk assessment and its link with other risk and performance, a focus on IT risk.

Keywords: Democratic Republic Congo, information system risk, microfinance performance, operational risk

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Authors: Rana Rimawi, Ayman Baklizi

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Skewed distributions are important models that are frequently used in applications. Generalized distributions form a class of skewed distributions and gain widespread use in applications because of their flexibility in data analysis. More specifically, the Generalized Logistic Distribution with its different types has received considerable attention recently. In this study, based on progressively type-II censored data, we will consider point estimation in type II Generalized Logistic Distribution (Type II GLD). We will develop several estimators for its unknown parameters, including maximum likelihood estimators (MLE), Bayes estimators and linear estimators (BLUE). The estimators will be compared using simulation based on the criteria of bias and Mean square error (MSE). An illustrative example of a real data set will be given.

Keywords: point estimation, type II generalized logistic distribution, progressive censoring, maximum likelihood estimation

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Authors: M. Vimal Raj, S. Sakthivel Murugan

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Underwater images degrade their quality due to atmospheric conditions. One of the major problems in an underwater image is motion blur caused by the imaging device or the movement of the object. In order to rectify that in post-imaging, parameters of the blurred image are to be estimated. So, the point spread function is estimated by the properties, using the spectrum of the image. To improve the estimation accuracy of the parameters, Optimized Polynomial Lagrange Interpolation (OPLI) method is implemented after the angle and length measurement of motion-blurred images. Initially, the data were collected from real-time environments in Chennai and processed. The proposed OPLI method shows better accuracy than the existing classical Cepstral, Hough, and Radon transform estimation methods for underwater images.

Keywords: image restoration, motion blur, parameter estimation, radon transform, underwater

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Authors: E. Harrer, M. Mauerhofer, T. Werginz

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As a result of intensive competition, the building sector is suffering from a high degree of rivalry. Furthermore, there can be observed an unbalanced distribution of project risks. Clients are aimed to shift their own risks into the sphere of the constructors or planners. The consequence of this is that the number of conflicts between the involved parties is inordinately high or even increasing; an alternative approach to counter on that developments are cooperative project forms in the construction sector. This research compares conventional contract models and models with partnering agreements to examine the influence on project risks by an early integration of the involved parties. The goal is to show up deviations in different project stages from the design phase to the project transfer phase. These deviations are evaluated by a survey of experts from the three spheres: clients, contractors and planners. By rating the influence of the participants on specific risk factors it is possible to identify factors which are relevant for a smooth project execution.

Keywords: building projects, contract models, partnering, project risks

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Authors: Francisco Toledo-Castillo, María Josefa Sospedra-Baeza, Sergio Hidalgo-Fuentes

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Motorcycles constitute about 9% of all motorized vehicles in Spain and are generally overrepresented in traffic accidents, accounting for 21% of total accidents. Six years of motorcycle accident data were obtained through the national accident database of Spain (Dirección General de Tráfico). Some of the studied factors are age, gender, helmet wearing, alcohol consumption, speeding, subject’s driving license and for how long it has been held, the trip purpose, and the presence of a passenger on the vehicle. Key findings show helmet use, unsafe speed, the trip purpose, weather, distraction, collision type and other variables play significant roles in crash-injury outcomes. Finally, we examine evolution of mortality and severity from 2006 to 2011.

Keywords: motorcycle accidents, risk factors, statistics, Spain

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Authors: Julinda Keçi

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In many countries, governments have been promoting the involvement of private sector entities to enter into long-term agreements for the development and delivery of large infrastructure projects, with a focus on overcoming the limitations upon public fund of the traditional approach. The involvement of private sector through public-private partnerships (PPP) brings in new capital investments, value for money and additional risks to handle. Worldwide research studies have shown that an objective, systematic, reliable and user-oriented risk assessment process and an optimal allocation mechanism among different stakeholders is crucial to the successful completion. In this framework this paper, which is the first stage of a research study, aims to identify the main risks for the delivery of PPP projects. A review of cross-countries research projects and case studies was performed to map the key risks affecting PPP infrastructure delivery. The matrix of mapping offers a summary of the frequency of factors, clustered in eleven categories: Construction, Design, Economic, Legal, Market, Natural, Operation, Political, Project finance, Project selection and Relationship. Results will highlight the most critical risk factors, and will hopefully assist the project managers in directing the managerial attention in the further stages of risk allocation.

Keywords: construction, infrastructure, public private partnerships, risks

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