Search results for: Peter David Reiss
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1164

Search results for: Peter David Reiss

264 Projected Impact of Population Aging on Noncommunicable Disease Burden and Costs in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, 2020–2030

Authors: David C. Boettiger, Tracy Kuo Lin, Maram Almansour, Mariam M. Hamza, Reem Alsukait, Christopher H. Herbst, Nada Altheyab, Ayman Afghani, Faisal Kattan

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Background The number of people aged greater than 65 years per 100 people aged 20–64 years is expected to almost double in The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) between 2020 and 2030. We therefore aimed to quantify the growing non-communicable disease (NCD) burden in KSA between 2020 and 2030, and the impact this will have on the national health budget. Methods Ten priority NCDs were selected: ischemic heart disease, stroke, type 2 diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, chronic kidney disease, dementia, depression, osteoarthritis, colorectal cancer, and breast cancer. Age- and sex-specific prevalence was projected for each priority NCD between 2020 and 2030. Treatment coverage rates were applied to the projected prevalence estimates to calculate the number of patients incurring treatment costs for each condition. For each priority NCD, the average cost-of-illness was estimated based on published literature. The impact of changes to our base-case model in terms of assumed disease prevalence, treatment coverage, and costs of care, coming into effect from 2023 onwards, were explored. Results The prevalence estimates for colorectal cancer and stroke were estimated to almost double between 2020 and 2030 (97% and 88% increase, respectively). The only priority NCD prevalence projected to increase by less than 60% between 2020 and 2030 was for depression (22% increase). It is estimated that the total cost of managing priority NCDs in KSA will increase from USD 19.8 billion in 2020 to USD 32.4 billion in 2030 (an increase of USD 12.6 billion or 63%). The largest USD value increases were projected for osteoarthritis (USD 4.3 billion), diabetes (USD 2.4 billion), and dementia (USD 1.9 billion). In scenario analyses, our 2030 projection for the total cost of managing priority NCDs varied between USD 29.2 billion - USD 35.7 billion. Conclusions Managing the growing NCD burden in KSA’s aging population will require substantial healthcare spending increases over the coming years.

Keywords: aging, non communicable disease, costs, Saudi Arabia

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263 Characterizing Nasal Microbiota in COVID-19 Patients: Insights from Nanopore Technology and Comparative Analysis

Authors: David Pinzauti, Simon De Jaegher, Maria D'Aguano, Manuele Biazzo

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The COVID-19 pandemic has left an indelible mark on global health, leading to a pressing need for understanding the intricate interactions between the virus and the human microbiome. This study focuses on characterizing the nasal microbiota of patients affected by COVID-19, with a specific emphasis on the comparison with unaffected individuals, to shed light on the crucial role of the microbiome in the development of this viral disease. To achieve this objective, Nanopore technology was employed to analyze the bacterial 16s rRNA full-length gene present in nasal swabs collected in Malta between January 2021 and August 2022. A comprehensive dataset consisting of 268 samples (126 SARS-negative samples and 142 SARS-positive samples) was subjected to a comparative analysis using an in-house, custom pipeline. The findings from this study revealed that individuals affected by COVID-19 possess a nasal microbiota that is significantly less diverse, as evidenced by lower α diversity, and is characterized by distinct microbial communities compared to unaffected individuals. The beta diversity analyses were carried out at different taxonomic resolutions. At the phylum level, Bacteroidota was found to be more prevalent in SARS-negative samples, suggesting a potential decrease during the course of viral infection. At the species level, the identification of several specific biomarkers further underscores the critical role of the nasal microbiota in COVID-19 pathogenesis. Notably, species such as Finegoldia magna, Moraxella catarrhalis, and others exhibited relative abundance in SARS-positive samples, potentially serving as significant indicators of the disease. This study presents valuable insights into the relationship between COVID-19 and the nasal microbiota. The identification of distinct microbial communities and potential biomarkers associated with the disease offers promising avenues for further research and therapeutic interventions aimed at enhancing public health outcomes in the context of COVID-19.

Keywords: COVID-19, nasal microbiota, nanopore technology, 16s rRNA gene, biomarkers

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262 Pareto Optimal Material Allocation Mechanism

Authors: Peter Egri, Tamas Kis

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Scheduling problems have been studied by the algorithmic mechanism design research from the beginning. This paper is focusing on a practically important, but theoretically rather neglected field: the project scheduling problem where the jobs connected by precedence constraints compete for various nonrenewable resources, such as materials. Although the centralized problem can be solved in polynomial-time by applying the algorithm of Carlier and Rinnooy Kan from the Eighties, obtaining materials in a decentralized environment is usually far from optimal. It can be observed in practical production scheduling situations that project managers tend to cache the required materials as soon as possible in order to avoid later delays due to material shortages. This greedy practice usually leads both to excess stocks for some projects and materials, and simultaneously, to shortages for others. The aim of this study is to develop a model for the material allocation problem of a production plant, where a central decision maker—the inventory—should assign the resources arriving at different points in time to the jobs. Since the actual due dates are not known by the inventory, the mechanism design approach is applied with the projects as the self-interested agents. The goal of the mechanism is to elicit the required information and allocate the available materials such that it minimizes the maximal tardiness among the projects. It is assumed that except the due dates, the inventory is familiar with every other parameters of the problem. A further requirement is that due to practical considerations monetary transfer is not allowed. Therefore a mechanism without money is sought which excludes some widely applied solutions such as the Vickrey–Clarke–Groves scheme. In this work, a type of Serial Dictatorship Mechanism (SDM) is presented for the studied problem, including a polynomial-time algorithm for computing the material allocation. The resulted mechanism is both truthful and Pareto optimal. Thus the randomization over the possible priority orderings of the projects results in a universally truthful and Pareto optimal randomized mechanism. However, it is shown that in contrast to problems like the many-to-many matching market, not every Pareto optimal solution can be generated with an SDM. In addition, no performance guarantee can be given compared to the optimal solution, therefore this approximation characteristic is investigated with experimental study. All in all, the current work studies a practically relevant scheduling problem and presents a novel truthful material allocation mechanism which eliminates the potential benefit of the greedy behavior that negatively influences the outcome. The resulted allocation is also shown to be Pareto optimal, which is the most widely used criteria describing a necessary condition for a reasonable solution.

Keywords: material allocation, mechanism without money, polynomial-time mechanism, project scheduling

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261 Stress Corrosion Crackings Test of Candidate Materials in Support of the Development of the European Small Modular Supercritical Water Cooled Rector Concept

Authors: Radek Novotny, Michal Novak, Daniela Marusakova, Monika Sipova, Hugo Fuentes, Peter Borst

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This research has been conducted within the European HORIZON 2020 project ECC-SMART. The main objective is to assess whether it is feasible to design and develop a small modular reactor (SMR) that would be cooled by supercritical water (SCW). One of the main objectives for material research concerns the corrosion of the candidate cladding materials. The experimental part has been conducted in support of the qualification procedure of the future SCW-SMR constructional materials. The last objective was to identify the gaps in current norms and guidelines. Apart from corrosion, resistance testing of candidate materials stresses corrosion cracking susceptibility tests have been performed in supercritical water. This paper describes part of these tests, in particular, those slow strain rate tensile loading applied for tangential ring shape specimens of two candidate materials, Alloy 800H and 310S stainless steel. These ring tensile tests are one the methods used for tensile testing of nuclear cladding. Here full circular heads with dimensions roughly equal to the inner diameter of the sample and the gage sections are placed in the parallel direction to the applied load. Slow strain rate tensile tests have been conducted in 380 or 500oC supercritical water applying two different elongation rates, 1x10-6 and 1x10-7 s-1. The effect of temperature and dissolved oxygen content on the SCC susceptibility of Alloy 800H and 310S stainless steel was investigated when two different temperatures and concentrations of dissolved oxygen were applied in supercritical water. The post-fracture analysis includes fractographic analysis of the fracture surfaces using SEM as well as cross-sectional analysis on the occurrence of secondary cracks. Assessment of the effect of environment and dissolved oxygen content was by comparing to the results of the reference tests performed in air and N2 gas overpressure. The effect of high temperature on creep and its role in the initiation of SCC was assessed as well. It has been concluded that the applied test method could be very useful for the investigation of stress corrosion cracking susceptibility of candidate cladding materials in supercritical water.

Keywords: stress corrosion cracking, ring tensile tests, super-critical water, alloy 800H, 310S stainless steel

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260 Global and Domestic Response to Boko Haram Terrorism on Cameroon 2014-2018

Authors: David Nchinda Keming

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The present study is focused on both the national and international collective fight against Boko Haram terrorism on Cameroon and the rule played by the Lake Chad Basin Countries (LCBCs) and the global community to suffocate the sect’s activities in the region. Although countries of the Lake Chad Basin include: Cameroon, Chad, Nigeria and Niger others like Benin also joined the course. The justification for the internationalisation of the fight against Boko Haram could be explained by the ecological and international climatic importance of the Lake Chad and the danger posed by the sect not only to the Lake Chad member countries but to global armed, civil servants and the international political economy. The study, therefore, kick start with Cameroon’s reaction to Boko Haram’s terrorist attacks on its territory. It further expounds on Cameroon’s request on bilateral diplomacy from members of the UN Security Council for an international collective support to staple the winds of the challenging sect. The study relies on the hypothesis that Boko Haram advanced terrorism on Cameroon was more challenging to the domestic military intelligence thus forcing the government to seek for bilateral and multilateral international collective support to secure its territory from the powerful sect. This premise is tested internationally via (multilateral cooperation, bilateral response, regional cooperation) and domestically through (solidarity parade, religious discourse, political manifestations, war efforts, the vigilantes and the way forward). To accomplish our study, we made used of the mixed research methodologies to interpret the primary, secondary and tertiary sources consulted. Our results reveal that the collective response was effectively positive justified by the drastic drop in the sect’s operations in Cameroon and the whole LCBCs. Although the sect was incapacitated, terrorism remains an international malaise and Cameroon hosts a fertile ground for terrorists’ activism. Boko Haram was just weakened and not completely defeated and could reappear someday even under a different appellation. Therefore, to absolutely eradicate terrorism in general and Boko Haram in particular, LCBCs must improve their military intelligence on terrorism and continue to collaborate with advanced experienced countries in fighting terrorism.

Keywords: Boko Haram, terrorism, domestic, international, response

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259 Prediction of Finned Projectile Aerodynamics Using a Lattice-Boltzmann Method CFD Solution

Authors: Zaki Abiza, Miguel Chavez, David M. Holman, Ruddy Brionnaud

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In this paper, the prediction of the aerodynamic behavior of the flow around a Finned Projectile will be validated using a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) solution, XFlow, based on the Lattice-Boltzmann Method (LBM). XFlow is an innovative CFD software developed by Next Limit Dynamics. It is based on a state-of-the-art Lattice-Boltzmann Method which uses a proprietary particle-based kinetic solver and a LES turbulent model coupled with the generalized law of the wall (WMLES). The Lattice-Boltzmann method discretizes the continuous Boltzmann equation, a transport equation for the particle probability distribution function. From the Boltzmann transport equation, and by means of the Chapman-Enskog expansion, the compressible Navier-Stokes equations can be recovered. However to simulate compressible flows, this method has a Mach number limitation because of the lattice discretization. Thanks to this flexible particle-based approach the traditional meshing process is avoided, the discretization stage is strongly accelerated reducing engineering costs, and computations on complex geometries are affordable in a straightforward way. The projectile that will be used in this work is the Army-Navy Basic Finned Missile (ANF) with a caliber of 0.03 m. The analysis will consist in varying the Mach number from M=0.5 comparing the axial force coefficient, normal force slope coefficient and the pitch moment slope coefficient of the Finned Projectile obtained by XFlow with the experimental data. The slope coefficients will be obtained using finite difference techniques in the linear range of the polar curve. The aim of such an analysis is to find out the limiting Mach number value starting from which the effects of high fluid compressibility (related to transonic flow regime) lead the XFlow simulations to differ from the experimental results. This will allow identifying the critical Mach number which limits the validity of the isothermal formulation of XFlow and beyond which a fully compressible solver implementing a coupled momentum-energy equations would be required.

Keywords: CFD, computational fluid dynamics, drag, finned projectile, lattice-boltzmann method, LBM, lift, mach, pitch

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258 The Role of People and Data in Complex Spatial-Related Long-Term Decisions: A Case Study of Capital Project Management Groups

Authors: Peter Boyes, Sarah Sharples, Paul Tennent, Gary Priestnall, Jeremy Morley

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Significant long-term investment projects can involve complex decisions. These are often described as capital projects, and the factors that contribute to their complexity include budgets, motivating reasons for investment, stakeholder involvement, interdependent projects, and the delivery phases required. The complexity of these projects often requires management groups to be established involving stakeholder representatives; these teams are inherently multidisciplinary. This study uses two university campus capital projects as case studies for this type of management group. Due to the interaction of projects with wider campus infrastructure and users, decisions are made at varying spatial granularity throughout the project lifespan. This spatial-related context brings complexity to the group decisions. Sensemaking is the process used to achieve group situational awareness of a complex situation, enabling the team to arrive at a consensus and make a decision. The purpose of this study is to understand the role of people and data in the complex spatial related long-term decision and sensemaking processes. The paper aims to identify and present issues experienced in practical settings of these types of decision. A series of exploratory semi-structured interviews with members of the two projects elicit an understanding of their operation. From two stages of thematic analysis, inductive and deductive, emergent themes are identified around the group structure, the data usage, and the decision making within these groups. When data were made available to the group, there were commonly issues with the perception of veracity and validity of the data presented; this impacted the ability of group to reach consensus and, therefore, for decisions to be made. Similarly, there were different responses to forecasted or modelled data, shaped by the experience and occupation of the individuals within the multidisciplinary management group. This paper provides an understanding of further support required for team sensemaking and decision making in complex capital projects. The paper also discusses the barriers found to effective decision making in this setting and suggests opportunities to develop decision support systems in this team strategic decision-making process. Recommendations are made for further research into the sensemaking and decision-making process of this complex spatial-related setting.

Keywords: decision making, decisions under uncertainty, real decisions, sensemaking, spatial, team decision making

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257 The Antagonistic/Synergistic Effect of Probiotic Yeast Saccharomyces boulardii on Candida glabrata Adhesion

Authors: Zorica Tomičić, Ružica Tomičić, Peter Raspor

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Growing resistance of pathogenic yeast Candida glabrata to many classes of antifungal drugs has stimulated efforts to discover new agents to combat a rising number of invasive C. glabrata infections, which deserves a great deal of concern due to the high mortality rate in immunocompromised populations. One promising strategy is the use of probiotic microorganisms, which, when administered in adequate amounts, confers a health benefit. A selected number of probiotic organisms, Saccharomyces boulardii among them, have been tested as potential biotherapeutic agents. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of the probiotic yeast S. boulardii on the adhesion of clinical isolates of C. glabrata at different temperatures, pH values, and in the presence of three clinically important antifungal drugs, such as fluconazole, itraconazole and amphotericin B. The method used to assess adhesion was crystal violet staining. The selection of antimycotics concentrations used in the adhesion assay was based on minimum inhibitory concentrations (MICs) obtained by the preliminarily performed microdilution modification of the Reference method for broth dilution antifungal susceptibility testing of yeast (Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute (CLSI), standard M27-A2). the results showed that despite the nonadhesiveness of S. boulardii cells, probiotic yeast significantly suppressed the adhesion of C. glabrata strains. Besides, at specific strain ratios, a slight stimulatory effect was observed in some C. glabrata strains, which highlights the importance of strain specificity and opens up further research interests. When environmental conditions are considered, temperature and pH significantly influenced co-culture adhesion of C. glabrata and S. boulardii. The adhesion of C. glabrata strains was relatively equally reduced over all tested temperature range (28°C, 37°C, 39°C and 42°C) in the presence of S. boulardii cells, while the adhesion of a few C. glabrata strains were significantly stimulated at 28°C and suppressed at 42°C. Further, the adhesion was highly dependent on pH, with the highest adherence at pH 4 and lowest at pH 8.5. It was observed that S. boulardii did not manage to suppress the adhesion of C. glabrata strains at high pH. Antimycotics on the other hand showed a greater impact, since S. boulardii failed to affect co-culture adhesion at higher antimycotics concentrations. As expected, exposure to various concentrations of amphotericin B significantly reduced the adherence ability of C.glabrata strains both in a single culture and co-culture with S. boulardii. Therefore, it can be speculated that S. boulardii could substitute the effect of antimycotics in a range concentrations and with specific type of strains. This would certainly change the view on the treatment of yeast infections in the future.

Keywords: adhesion, antimycotics, candida glabrata, saccharomyces boulardii

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256 Blue Finance: A Systematical Review of the Academic Literature on Investment Streams for Marine Conservation

Authors: David Broussard

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This review article delves into the realm of marine conservation finance, addressing the inadequacies in current financial streams from the private sector and the underutilization of existing financing mechanisms. The study emphasizes the emerging field of “blue finance”, which contributes to economic growth, improved livelihoods, and marine ecosystem health. The financial burden of marine conservation projects typically falls on philanthropists and governments, contrary to the polluter-pays principle. However, the private sector’s increasing commitment to NetZero and growing environmental and social responsibility goals prompts the need for alternative funding sources for marine conservation initiatives like marine protected areas. The article explores the potential of utilizing several financing mechanisms like carbon credits and other forms of payment for ecosystem services in the marine context, providing a solution to the lack of private funding for marine conservation. The methodology employed involves a systematic and quantitative approach, combining traditional review methods and elements of meta-analysis. A comprehensive search of the years 2000 - 2023, using relevant keywords on the Scopus platform, resulted in a review of 252 articles. The temporal evolution of blue finance studies reveals a significant increase in annual articles from 2010 to 2022, with notable peaks in 2011 and 2022. Marine Policy, Ecosystem Services, and Frontiers in Marine Science are prominent journals in this field. While the majority of articles focus on payment for ecosystem services, there is a growing awareness of the need for holistic approaches in conservation finance. Utilizing bibliometric techniques, the article showcases the dominant share of payment for ecosystem services in the literature with a focus on blue carbon. The classification of articles based on various criteria, including financing mechanisms and conservation types, aids in categorizing and understanding the diversity of research objectives and perspectives in this complex field of marine conservation finance.

Keywords: biodiversity offsets, carbon credits, ecosystem services, impact investment, payment for ecosystem services

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255 Fast Estimation of Fractional Process Parameters in Rough Financial Models Using Artificial Intelligence

Authors: Dávid Kovács, Bálint Csanády, Dániel Boros, Iván Ivkovic, Lóránt Nagy, Dalma Tóth-Lakits, László Márkus, András Lukács

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The modeling practice of financial instruments has seen significant change over the last decade due to the recognition of time-dependent and stochastically changing correlations among the market prices or the prices and market characteristics. To represent this phenomenon, the Stochastic Correlation Process (SCP) has come to the fore in the joint modeling of prices, offering a more nuanced description of their interdependence. This approach has allowed for the attainment of realistic tail dependencies, highlighting that prices tend to synchronize more during intense or volatile trading periods, resulting in stronger correlations. Evidence in statistical literature suggests that, similarly to the volatility, the SCP of certain stock prices follows rough paths, which can be described using fractional differential equations. However, estimating parameters for these equations often involves complex and computation-intensive algorithms, creating a necessity for alternative solutions. In this regard, the Fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (fOU) process from the family of fractional processes offers a promising path. We can effectively describe the rough SCP by utilizing certain transformations of the fOU. We employed neural networks to understand the behavior of these processes. We had to develop a fast algorithm to generate a valid and suitably large sample from the appropriate process to train the network. With an extensive training set, the neural network can estimate the process parameters accurately and efficiently. Although the initial focus was the fOU, the resulting model displayed broader applicability, thus paving the way for further investigation of other processes in the realm of financial mathematics. The utility of SCP extends beyond its immediate application. It also serves as a springboard for a deeper exploration of fractional processes and for extending existing models that use ordinary Wiener processes to fractional scenarios. In essence, deploying both SCP and fractional processes in financial models provides new, more accurate ways to depict market dynamics.

Keywords: fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, fractional stochastic processes, Heston model, neural networks, stochastic correlation, stochastic differential equations, stochastic volatility

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254 Evaluation and Proposal for Improvement of the Flow Measurement Equipment in the Bellavista Drinking Water System of the City of Azogues

Authors: David Quevedo, Diana Coronel

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The present article carries out an evaluation of the drinking water system in the Bellavista sector of the city of Azogues, with the purpose of determining the appropriate equipment to record the actual consumption flows of the inhabitants in said sector. Taking into account that the study area is located in a rural and economically disadvantaged area, there is an urgent need to establish a control system for the consumption of drinking water in order to conserve and manage the vital resource in the best possible way, considering that the water source supplying this sector is approximately 9km away. The research began with the collection of cartographic, demographic, and statistical data of the sector, determining the coverage area, population projection, and a provision that guarantees the supply of drinking water to meet the water needs of the sector's inhabitants. By using hydraulic modeling through the United States Environmental Protection Agency Application for Modeling Drinking Water Distribution Systems EPANET 2.0 software, theoretical hydraulic data were obtained, which were used to design and justify the most suitable measuring equipment for the Bellavista drinking water system. Taking into account a minimum service life of the drinking water system of 30 years, future flow rates were calculated for the design of the macro-measuring device. After analyzing the network, it was evident that the Bellavista sector has an average consumption of 102.87 liters per person per day, but considering that Ecuadorian regulations recommend a provision of 180 liters per person per day for the geographical conditions of the sector, this value was used for the analysis. With all the collected and calculated information, the conclusion was reached that the Bellavista drinking water system needs to have a 125mm electromagnetic macro-measuring device for the first three quinquenniums of its service life and a 150mm diameter device for the following three quinquenniums. The importance of having equipment that provides real and reliable data will allow for the control of water consumption by the population of the sector, measured through micro-measuring devices installed at the entrance of each household, which should match the readings of the macro-measuring device placed after the water storage tank outlet, in order to control losses that may occur due to leaks in the drinking water system or illegal connections.

Keywords: macrometer, hydraulics, endowment, water

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253 Delineation of Green Infrastructure Buffer Areas with a Simulated Annealing: Consideration of Ecosystem Services Trade-Offs in the Objective Function

Authors: Andres Manuel Garcia Lamparte, Rocio Losada Iglesias, Marcos BoullóN Magan, David Miranda Barros

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The biodiversity strategy of the European Union for 2030, mentions climate change as one of the key factors for biodiversity loss and considers green infrastructure as one of the solutions to this problem. In this line, the European Commission has developed a green infrastructure strategy which commits members states to consider green infrastructure in their territorial planning. This green infrastructure is aimed at granting the provision of a wide number of ecosystem services to support biodiversity and human well-being by countering the effects of climate change. Yet, there are not too many tools available to delimit green infrastructure. The available ones consider the potential of the territory to provide ecosystem services. However, these methods usually aggregate several maps of ecosystem services potential without considering possible trade-offs. This can lead to excluding areas with a high potential for providing ecosystem services which have many trade-offs with other ecosystem services. In order to tackle this problem, a methodology is proposed to consider ecosystem services trade-offs in the objective function of a simulated annealing algorithm aimed at delimiting green infrastructure multifunctional buffer areas. To this end, the provision potential maps of the regulating ecosystem services considered to delimit the multifunctional buffer areas are clustered in groups, so that ecosystem services that create trade-offs are excluded in each group. The normalized provision potential maps of the ecosystem services in each group are added to obtain a potential map per group which is normalized again. Then the potential maps for each group are combined in a raster map that shows the highest provision potential value in each cell. The combined map is then used in the objective function of the simulated annealing algorithm. The algorithm is run both using the proposed methodology and considering the ecosystem services individually. The results are analyzed with spatial statistics and landscape metrics to check the number of ecosystem services that the delimited areas produce, as well as their regularity and compactness. It has been observed that the proposed methodology increases the number of ecosystem services produced by delimited areas, improving their multifunctionality and increasing their effectiveness in preventing climate change impacts.

Keywords: ecosystem services trade-offs, green infrastructure delineation, multifunctional buffer areas, climate change

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252 Utilizing Artificial Intelligence to Predict Post Operative Atrial Fibrillation in Non-Cardiac Transplant

Authors: Alexander Heckman, Rohan Goswami, Zachi Attia, Paul Friedman, Peter Noseworthy, Demilade Adedinsewo, Pablo Moreno-Franco, Rickey Carter, Tathagat Narula

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Background: Postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) is associated with adverse health consequences, higher costs, and longer hospital stays. Utilizing existing predictive models that rely on clinical variables and circulating biomarkers, multiple societies have published recommendations on the treatment and prevention of POAF. Although reasonably practical, there is room for improvement and automation to help individualize treatment strategies and reduce associated complications. Methods and Results: In this retrospective cohort study of solid organ transplant recipients, we evaluated the diagnostic utility of a previously developed AI-based ECG prediction for silent AF on the development of POAF within 30 days of transplant. A total of 2261 non-cardiac transplant patients without a preexisting diagnosis of AF were found to have a 5.8% (133/2261) incidence of POAF. While there were no apparent sex differences in POAF incidence (5.8% males vs. 6.0% females, p=.80), there were differences by race and ethnicity (p<0.001 and 0.035, respectively). The incidence in white transplanted patients was 7.2% (117/1628), whereas the incidence in black patients was 1.4% (6/430). Lung transplant recipients had the highest incidence of postoperative AF (17.4%, 37/213), followed by liver (5.6%, 56/1002) and kidney (3.6%, 32/895) recipients. The AUROC in the sample was 0.62 (95% CI: 0.58-0.67). The relatively low discrimination may result from undiagnosed AF in the sample. In particular, 1,177 patients had at least 1 AI-ECG screen for AF pre-transplant above .10, a value slightly higher than the published threshold of 0.08. The incidence of POAF in the 1104 patients without an elevated prediction pre-transplant was lower (3.7% vs. 8.0%; p<0.001). While this supported the hypothesis that potentially undiagnosed AF may have contributed to the diagnosis of POAF, the utility of the existing AI-ECG screening algorithm remained modest. When the prediction for POAF was made using the first postoperative ECG in the sample without an elevated screen pre-transplant (n=1084 on account of n=20 missing postoperative ECG), the AUROC was 0.66 (95% CI: 0.57-0.75). While this discrimination is relatively low, at a threshold of 0.08, the AI-ECG algorithm had a 98% (95% CI: 97 – 99%) negative predictive value at a sensitivity of 66% (95% CI: 49-80%). Conclusions: This study's principal finding is that the incidence of POAF is rare, and a considerable fraction of the POAF cases may be latent and undiagnosed. The high negative predictive value of AI-ECG screening suggests utility for prioritizing monitoring and evaluation on transplant patients with a positive AI-ECG screening. Further development and refinement of a post-transplant-specific algorithm may be warranted further to enhance the diagnostic yield of the ECG-based screening.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, atrial fibrillation, cardiology, transplant, medicine, ECG, machine learning

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251 Investigating Student Behavior in Adopting Online Formative Assessment Feedback

Authors: Peter Clutterbuck, Terry Rowlands, Owen Seamons

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In this paper we describe one critical research program within a complex, ongoing multi-year project (2010 to 2014 inclusive) with the overall goal to improve the learning outcomes for first year undergraduate commerce/business students within an Information Systems (IS) subject with very large enrolment. The single research program described in this paper is the analysis of student attitudes and decision making in relation to the availability of formative assessment feedback via Web-based real time conferencing and document exchange software (Adobe Connect). The formative assessment feedback between teaching staff and students is in respect of an authentic problem-based, team-completed assignment. The analysis of student attitudes and decision making is investigated via both qualitative (firstly) and quantitative (secondly) application of the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) with a two statistically-significant and separate trial samples of the enrolled students. The initial qualitative TPB investigation revealed that perceived self-efficacy, improved time-management, and lecturer-student relationship building were the major factors in shaping an overall favorable student attitude to online feedback, whilst some students expressed valid concerns with perceived control limitations identified within the online feedback protocols. The subsequent quantitative TPB investigation then confirmed that attitude towards usage, subjective norms surrounding usage, and perceived behavioral control of usage were all significant in shaping student intention to use the online feedback protocol, with these three variables explaining 63 percent of the variance in the behavioral intention to use the online feedback protocol. The identification in this research of perceived behavioral control as a significant determinant in student usage of a specific technology component within a virtual learning environment (VLE) suggests that VLEs could now be viewed not as a single, atomic entity, but as a spectrum of technology offerings ranging from the mature and simple (e.g., email, Web downloads) to the cutting-edge and challenging (e.g., Web conferencing and real-time document exchange). That is, that all VLEs should not be considered the same. The results of this research suggest that tertiary students have the technological sophistication to assess a VLE in this more selective manner.

Keywords: formative assessment feedback, virtual learning environment, theory of planned behavior, perceived behavioral control

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250 Controlled Digital Lending, Equitable Access to Knowledge and Future Library Services

Authors: Xuan Pang, Alvin L. Lee, Peggy Glatthaar

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Libraries across the world have been an innovation engine of creativity and opportunityin many decades. The on-going global epidemiology outbreak and health crisis experience illuminates potential reforms, rethinking beyond traditional library operations and services. Controlled Digital Lending (CDL) is one of the emerging technologies libraries used to deliver information digitally in support of online learning and teachingand make educational materials more affordable and more accessible. CDL became a popular term in the United States of America (USA) as a result of a white paper authored by Kyle K. Courtney (Harvard University) and David Hansen (Duke University). The paper gave the legal groundwork to explore CDL: Fair Use, First Sale Doctrine, and Supreme Court rulings. Library professionals implemented this new technology to fulfill their users’ needs. Three libraries in the state of Florida (University of Florida, Florida Gulf Coast University, and Florida A&M University) started a conversation about how to develop strategies to make CDL work possible at each institution. This paper shares the stories of piloting and initiating a CDL program to ensure students have reliable, affordable access to course materials they need to be successful. Additionally, this paper offers an overview of the emerging trends of Controlled Digital Lending in the USA and demonstrates the development of the CDL platforms, policies, and implementation plans. The paper further discusses challenges and lessons learned and how each institution plans to sustain the program into future library services. The fundamental mission of the library is providing users unrestricted access to library resources regardless of their physical location, disability, health status, or other circumstances. The professional due diligence of librarians, as information professionals, is to makeeducational resources more affordable and accessible.CDL opens a new frontier of library services as a mechanism for library practice to enhance user’s experience of using libraries’ services. Libraries should consider exploring this tool to distribute library resources in an effective and equitable way. This new methodology has potential benefits to libraries and end users.

Keywords: controlled digital lending, emerging technologies, equitable access, collaborations

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249 Microscale observations of a gas cell wall rupture in bread dough during baking and confrontation to 2/3D Finite Element simulations of stress concentration

Authors: Kossigan Bernard Dedey, David Grenier, Tiphaine Lucas

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Bread dough is often described as a dispersion of gas cells in a continuous gluten/starch matrix. The final bread crumb structure is strongly related to gas cell walls (GCWs) rupture during baking. At the end of proofing and during baking, part of the thinnest GCWs between expanding gas cells is reduced to a gluten film of about the size of a starch granule. When such size is reached gluten and starch granules must be considered as interacting phases in order to account for heterogeneities and appropriately describe GCW rupture. Among experimental investigations carried out to assess GCW rupture, no experimental work was performed to observe the GCW rupture in the baking conditions at GCW scale. In addition, attempts to numerically understand GCW rupture are usually not performed at the GCW scale and often considered GCWs as continuous. The most relevant paper that accounted for heterogeneities dealt with the gluten/starch interactions and their impact on the mechanical behavior of dough film. However, stress concentration in GCW was not discussed. In this study, both experimental and numerical approaches were used to better understand GCW rupture in bread dough during baking. Experimentally, a macro-scope placed in front of a two-chamber device was used to observe the rupture of a real GCW of 200 micrometers in thickness. Special attention was paid in order to mimic baking conditions as far as possible (temperature, gas pressure and moisture). Various differences in pressure between both sides of GCW were applied and different modes of fracture initiation and propagation in GCWs were observed. Numerically, the impact of gluten/starch interactions (cohesion or non-cohesion) and rheological moduli ratio on the mechanical behavior of GCW under unidirectional extension was assessed in 2D/3D. A non-linear viscoelastic and hyperelastic approach was performed to match the finite strain involved in GCW during baking. Stress concentration within GCW was identified. Simulated stresses concentration was discussed at the light of GCW failure observed in the device. The gluten/starch granule interactions and rheological modulus ratio were found to have a great effect on the amount of stress possibly reached in the GCW.

Keywords: dough, experimental, numerical, rupture

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248 Saving the Decolonized Subject from Neglected Tropical Diseases: Public Health Campaign and Household-Centred Sanitation in Colonial West Africa, 1900-1960

Authors: Adebisi David Alade

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In pre-colonial West Africa, the deadliness of the climate vis-a- vis malaria and other tropical diseases to Europeans turned the region into the “white man’s grave.” Thus, immediately after the partition of Africa in 1885, civilisatrice and mise en valeur not only became a pretext for the establishment of colonial rule; from a medical point of view, the control and possible eradication of disease in the continent emerged as one of the first concerns of the European colonizers. Though geared toward making Africa exploitable, historical evidence suggests that some colonial Water, Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH) policies and projects reduced certain tropical diseases in some West African communities. Exploring some of these disease control interventions by way of historical revisionism, this paper challenges the orthodox interpretation of colonial sanitation and public health measures in West Africa. This paper critiques the deployment of race and class as analytical tools for the study of colonial WASH projects, an exercise which often reduces the complexity and ambiguity of colonialism to the binary of colonizer and the colonized. Since West Africa presently ranks high among regions with Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTDs), it is imperative to decentre colonial racism and economic exploitation in African history in order to give room for Africans to see themselves in other ways. Far from resolving the problem of NTDs by fiat in the region, this study seeks to highlight important blind spots in African colonial history in an attempt to prevent post-colonial African leaders from throwing away the baby with the bath water. As scholars researching colonial sanitation and public health in the continent rarely examine its complex meaning and content, this paper submits that the outright demonization of colonial rule across space and time continues to build ideological wall between the present and the past which not only inhibit fruitful borrowing from colonial administration of West Africa, but also prevents a wide understanding of the challenges of WASH policies and projects in most West African states.

Keywords: colonial rule, disease control, neglected tropical diseases, WASH

Procedia PDF Downloads 158
247 Re-Examining the Distinction between Odour Nuisance and Health Impact: A Community’s Campaign against Landfill Gas Exposure in Shongweni, South Africa

Authors: Colin David La Grange, Lisa Frost Ramsay

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Hydrogen sulphide (H2S) is a minor component of landfill gas, but significant in its distinct odorous quality and its association with landfill-related community complaints. The World Health Organisation (WHO) provides two guidelines for H2S: a health guideline at 150 µg/m3 on a 24-hour average, and a nuisance guideline at 7 µg/m3 on a 30-minute average. Albeit a practical distinction for impact assessment, this paper highlights the danger of the apparent dualism between nuisance and health impact, particularly when it is used to dismiss community concerns of perceived health impacts at low concentrations of H2S, as in the case of a community battle against the impacts of a landfill in Shongweni, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Here community members reported, using a community developed mobile phone application, a range of health symptoms that coincided with, or occurred subsequent to, odour events and localised H2S peaks. Local doctors also documented increased visits for symptoms of respiratory distress, eye and skin irritation, and stress after such odour events. Objectively measured H2S and other pollutant concentrations during these events, however, remained below WHO health guidelines. This case study highlights the importance of the physiological link between the experience of environmental nuisance and overall health and wellbeing, showing these to be less distinct than the WHO guidelines would suggest. The potential mechanisms of impact of an odorous plume, with key constituents at concentrations below traditional health thresholds, on psychologically and/or physiologically sensitised individuals are described. In the case of psychological sensitisation, previously documented mechanisms such as aversive conditioning and odour-triggered panic are relevant. Physiological sensitisation to environmental pollutants, evident as a seemingly disproportionate physical (allergy-type) response to either low concentrations or a short duration exposure of a toxin or toxins, remains extensively examined but still not well understood. The links between a heightened sensitivity to toxic compounds, accumulation of some compounds in the body, and a pre-existing or associated immunological stress disorder are presented as a possible explanation.

Keywords: immunological stress disorder, landfill odour, odour nuisance, odour sensitisation, toxin accumulation

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246 The Routine Use of a Negative Pressure Incision Management System in Vascular Surgery: A Case Series

Authors: Hansraj Bookun, Angela Tan, Rachel Xuan, Linheng Zhao, Kejia Wang, Animesh Singla, David Kim, Christopher Loupos

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Introduction: Incisional wound complications in vascular surgery patients represent a significant clinical and econometric burden of morbidity and mortality. The objective of this study was to trial the feasibility of applying the Prevena negative pressure incision management system as a routine dressing in patients who had undergone arterial surgery. Conventionally, Prevena has been applied to groin incisions, but this study features applications on multiple wound sites such as the thigh or major amputation stumps. Method: This was a cross-sectional observational, single-centre case series of 12 patients who had undergone major vascular surgery. Their wounds were managed with the Prevena system being applied either intra-operatively or on the first post-operative day. Demographic and operative details were collated as well as the length of stay and complication rates. Results: There were 9 males (75%) with mean age of 66 years and the comorbid burden was as follows: ischaemic heart disease (92%), diabetes (42%), hypertension (100%), stage 4 or greater kidney impairment (17%) and current or ex-smoking (83%). The main indications were acute ischaemia (33%), claudication (25%), and gangrene (17%). There were single instances of an occluded popliteal artery aneurysm, diabetic foot infection, and rest pain. The majority of patients (50%) had hybrid operations with iliofemoral endarterectomies, patch arterioplasties, and further peripheral endovascular treatment. There were 4 complex arterial bypass operations and 2 major amputations. The mean length of stay was 17 ± 10 days, with a range of 4 to 35 days. A single complication, in the form of a lymphocoele, was encountered in the context of an iliofemoral endarterectomy and patch arterioplasty. This was managed conservatively. There were no deaths. Discussion: The Prevena wound management system shows that in conjunction with safe vascular surgery, absolute wound complication rates remain low and that it remains a valuable adjunct in the treatment of vasculopaths.

Keywords: wound care, negative pressure, vascular surgery, closed incision

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245 Antimicrobial Activity, Phytochemistry and Toxicity Of Extracts Of Naturally Growing and Cultivated Aloe Turkanensis

Authors: Zachary Muthii Rukenya, James Mbaria, Peter Mbaabu, Kiama Stephen Gitahi, Ronald Onzago

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Aloe turkanensis is one of the widely used medicinal shrub and in Kenya the plant is mainly found in Baringo, Isiolo, Laikipia, Turkana and West Pokot Counties where it is used in ethno-medicine and ethno-veterinary medicine. The Turkana community uses the plant products to manage malaria, wounds, stomach ache, constipation, pain, skin infection, poultry diseases and retained afterbirth in cows. This evaluated the efficacy and safety of the plant obtained from Turkana County, Kenya. Preliminary data on the use of the plant in the county was collected through observation, photographing and interviews. A sample of the whole plant was harvested in Natira sublocation, in ex-Turkana west district in February 2012 after identification by Aloe-working group herbalists who voluntarily provided information on its medicinal uses. Botanical identification was done at Kenya Forest Research Centre in Karura where voucher specimen was deposited. Cold maceration using 70% methanol and distilled water was used for extraction. Bioassays were to determine the effects of the plant extracts on brine shrimp and selected bacterial and fungal cultures. The extracts were tested in-vitro activity against standard cultures of B. cereus (ATCC 11778), S. aureus (ATCC25923), P. aeroginosa (ATCC 27853), E. coli (ATCC 25922) and a human infections clinical isolate of C. albicans. The extracts of Aloe turkanensis inhibited the growth B. cereus (100-200 mg/ml), S. aureus (50-100 mg/ml), P. aeroginosa (200mg/ml), E. coli (400mg/ml) while C. albicans was not affected. The extracts also inhibited the growth of S. aureus and B. cereus with mean diameters of inhibition zones being 19.75±1 mm and 18.5±05 mm reapectively. Phytochemical screening showed the presence of alkaloids, tarpenoids, steroids, quinones, saponins and tannins in the plant extracts. The extract was found to be non-toxic at a concentration of 1000µg/ml with a 100% survival of Brine Shrimp larva. It was concluded that Aloe turkanensis growing the study area has metabolites that inhibit the growth of microorganisms and is however, there is need for further studies to validate the in-vivo bioactivity of the plant and more generate adequate toxicological data.to support conservation, value chain addition of its products and widespread use as a herbal remedy.

Keywords: Aloe turkanensis, bioactivity, cultivated, human infections

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244 Tackling Inequalities in Regional Health Care: Accompanying an Inter-Sectoral Cooperation Project between University Medicine and Regional Care Structures

Authors: Susanne Ferschl, Peter Holzmüller, Elisabeth Wacker

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Ageing populations, advances in medical sciences and digitalization, diversity and social disparities, as well as the increasing need for skilled healthcare professionals, are challenging healthcare systems around the globe. To address these challenges, future healthcare systems need to center on human needs taking into account the living environments that shape individuals’ knowledge of and opportunities to access healthcare. Moreover, health should be considered as a common good and an integral part of securing livelihoods for all people. Therefore, the adoption of a systems approach, as well as inter-disciplinary and inter-sectoral cooperation among healthcare providers, are essential. Additionally, the active engagement of target groups in the planning and design of healthcare structures is indispensable to understand and respect individuals’ health and livelihood needs. We will present the research project b4 – identifying needs | building bridges | developing health care in the social space, which is situated within this reasoning and accompanies the cross-sectoral cooperation project Brückenschlag (building bridges) in a Bavarian district. Brückenschlag seeks to explore effective ways of health care linking university medicine (Maximalversorgung | maximum care) with regional inpatient, outpatient, rehabilitative, and preventive care structures (Regionalversorgung | regional care). To create advantages for both (potential) patients and the involved cooperation partners, project b4 qualitatively assesses needs and motivations among professionals, population groups, and political stakeholders at individual and collective levels. Besides providing an overview of the project structure as well as of regional population and healthcare characteristics, the first results of qualitative interviews conducted with different health experts will be presented. Interviewed experts include managers of participating hospitals, nurses, medical specialists working in the hospital and registered doctors operating in practices in rural areas. At the end of the project life and based on the identified factors relevant to the success -and also for failure- of participatory cooperation in health care, the project aims at informing other districts embarking on similar systems-oriented and human-centered healthcare projects. Individuals’ health care needs in dependence on the social space in which they live will guide the development of recommendations.

Keywords: cross-sectoral collaboration in health care, human-centered health care, regional health care, individual and structural health conditions

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243 GPU-Based Back-Projection of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) Data onto 3D Reference Voxels

Authors: Joshua Buli, David Pietrowski, Samuel Britton

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Processing SAR data usually requires constraints in extent in the Fourier domain as well as approximations and interpolations onto a planar surface to form an exploitable image. This results in a potential loss of data requires several interpolative techniques, and restricts visualization to two-dimensional plane imagery. The data can be interpolated into a ground plane projection, with or without terrain as a component, all to better view SAR data in an image domain comparable to what a human would view, to ease interpretation. An alternate but computationally heavy method to make use of more of the data is the basis of this research. Pre-processing of the SAR data is completed first (matched-filtering, motion compensation, etc.), the data is then range compressed, and lastly, the contribution from each pulse is determined for each specific point in space by searching the time history data for the reflectivity values for each pulse summed over the entire collection. This results in a per-3D-point reflectivity using the entire collection domain. New advances in GPU processing have finally allowed this rapid projection of acquired SAR data onto any desired reference surface (called backprojection). Mathematically, the computations are fast and easy to implement, despite limitations in SAR phase history data size and 3D-point cloud size. Backprojection processing algorithms are embarrassingly parallel since each 3D point in the scene has the same reflectivity calculation applied for all pulses, independent of all other 3D points and pulse data under consideration. Therefore, given the simplicity of the single backprojection calculation, the work can be spread across thousands of GPU threads allowing for accurate reflectivity representation of a scene. Furthermore, because reflectivity values are associated with individual three-dimensional points, a plane is no longer the sole permissible mapping base; a digital elevation model or even a cloud of points (collected from any sensor capable of measuring ground topography) can be used as a basis for the backprojection technique. This technique minimizes any interpolations and modifications of the raw data, maintaining maximum data integrity. This innovative processing will allow for SAR data to be rapidly brought into a common reference frame for immediate exploitation and data fusion with other three-dimensional data and representations.

Keywords: backprojection, data fusion, exploitation, three-dimensional, visualization

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242 Developing Social Responsibility Values in Nascent Entrepreneurs through Role-Play: An Explorative Study of University Students in the United Kingdom

Authors: David W. Taylor, Fernando Lourenço, Carolyn Branston, Paul Tucker

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There are an increasing number of students at Universities in the United Kingdom engaging in entrepreneurship role-play to explore business start-up as a career alternative to employment. These role-play activities have been shown to have a positive influence on students’ entrepreneurial intentions. Universities also play a role in developing graduates’ awareness of social responsibility. However, social responsibility is often missing from these entrepreneurship role-plays. It is important that these role-play activities include the development of values that support social responsibility, in-line with those running hybrid, humane and sustainable enterprises, and not simply focus on profit. The Young Enterprise (YE) Start-Up programme is an example of a role-play activity that is gaining in popularity amongst United Kingdom Universities seeking ways to give students insight into a business start-up. A Post-92 University in the North-West of England has adapted the traditional YE Directorship roles (e.g., Marketing Director, Sales Director) by including a Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) Director in all of the team-based YE Start-Up businesses. The aim for introducing this Directorship was to observe if such a role would help create a more socially responsible value-system within each company and in turn shape business decisions. This paper investigates role-play as a tool to help enterprise educators develop socially responsible attitudes and values in nascent entrepreneurs. A mixed qualitative methodology approach has been used, which includes interviews, role-play, and reflection, to help students develop positive value characteristics through the exploration of unethical and selfish behaviors. The initial findings indicate that role-play helped CSR Directors learn and gain insights into the importance of corporate social responsibility, influenced the values and actions of their YE Start-Ups, and increased the likelihood that if the participants were to launch a business post-graduation, that the intent would be for the business to be socially responsible. These findings help inform educators on how to develop socially responsible nascent entrepreneurs within a traditionally profit orientated business model.

Keywords: student entrepreneurship, young enterprise, social responsibility, role-play, values

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241 Pakistan’s Counterinsurgency Operations: A Case Study of Swat

Authors: Arshad Ali

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The Taliban insurgency in Swat which started apparently as a social movement in 2004 transformed into an anti-Pakistan Islamist insurgency by joining hands with the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) upon its formation in 2007. It quickly spread beyond Swat by 2009 making Swat the second stronghold of TTP after FATA. It prompted the Pakistan military to launch a full-scale counterinsurgency military operation code named Rah-i-Rast to regain the control of Swat. Operation Rah-i-Rast was successful not only in restoring the writ of the State but more importantly in creating a consensus against the spread of Taliban insurgency in Pakistan at political, social and military levels. This operation became a test case for civilian government and military to seek for a sustainable solution combating the TTP insurgency in the north-west of Pakistan. This study analyzes why the counterinsurgency operation Rah-i-Rast was successful and why the previous ones came into failure. The study also explores factors which created consensus against the Taliban insurgency at political and social level as well as reasons which hindered such a consensual approach in the past. The study argues that the previous initiatives failed due to various factors including Pakistan army’s lack of comprehensive counterinsurgency model, weak political will and public support, and states negligence. Also, the initial counterinsurgency policies were ad-hoc in nature fluctuating between military operations and peace deals. After continuous failure, the military revisited its approach to counterinsurgency in the operation Rah-i-Rast. The security forces learnt from their past experiences and developed a pragmatic counterinsurgency model: ‘clear, hold, build, and transfer.’ The military also adopted the population-centric approach to provide security to the local people. This case Study of Swat evaluates the strengths and weaknesses of the Pakistan's counterinsurgency operations as well as peace agreements. It will analyze operation Rah-i-Rast in the light of David Galula’s model of counterinsurgency. Unlike existing literature, the study underscores the bottom up approach adopted by the Pakistan’s military and government by engaging the local population to sustain the post-operation stability in Swat. More specifically, the study emphasizes on the hybrid counterinsurgency model “clear, hold, and build and Transfer” in Swat.

Keywords: Insurgency, Counterinsurgency, clear, hold, build, transfer

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240 Explosion Mechanics of Aluminum Plates Subjected to the Combined Effect of Blast Wave and Fragment Impact Loading: A Multicase Computational Modeling Study

Authors: Atoui Oussama, Maazoun Azer, Belkassem Bachir, Pyl Lincy, Lecompte David

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For many decades, researchers have been focused on understanding the dynamic behavior of different structures and materials subjected to fragment impact or blast loads separately. The explosion mechanics, as well as the impact physics studies dealing with the numerical modeling of the response of protective structures under the synergistic effect of a blast wave and the impact of fragments, are quite limited in the literature. This article numerically evaluates the nonlinear dynamic behavior and damage mechanisms of Aluminum plates EN AW-1050A- H24 under different combined loading scenarios varied by the sequence of the applied loads using the commercial software LS-DYNA. For one hand, with respect to the terminal ballistic field investigations, a Lagrangian (LAG) formulation is used to evaluate the different failure modes of the target material in case of a fragment impact. On the other hand, with respect to the blast field analysis, an Arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian (ALE) formulation is considered to study the fluid-structure interaction (FSI) of the shock wave and the plate in case of a blast loading. Four different loading scenarios are considered: (1) only blast loading, (2) only fragment impact, (3) blast loading followed by a fragment impact and (4) a fragment impact followed by blast loading. From the numerical results, it was observed that when the impact load is applied to the plate prior to the blast load, it suffers more severe damage due to the hole enlargement phenomenon and the effects of crack propagation on the circumference of the damaged zone. Moreover, it was found that the hole from the fragment impact loading was enlarged to about three times in diameter as compared to the diameter of the projectile. The validation of the proposed computational model is based in part on previous experimental data obtained by the authors and in the other part on experimental data obtained from the literature. A good correspondence between the numerical and experimental results is found.

Keywords: computational analysis, combined loading, explosion mechanics, hole enlargement phenomenon, impact physics, synergistic effect, terminal ballistic

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239 Effects of Conversion of Indigenous Forest to Plantation Forest on the Diversity of Macro-Fungi in Kereita Forest, Kikuyu Escarpment, Kenya

Authors: Susan Mwai, Mary Muchane, Peter Wachira, Sheila Okoth, Muchai Muchane, Halima Saado

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Tropical forests harbor a wide range of biodiversity and rich macro-fungi diversity compared to the temperate regions in the World. However, biodiversity is facing the threat of extinction following the rate of forest loss taking place before proper study and documentation of macrofungi is achieved. The present study was undertaken to determine the effect of converting indigenous habitat to plantation forest on macrofungi diversity. To achieve the objective of this study, an inventory focusing on macro-fungi diversity was conducted within Kereita block in Kikuyu Escarpment forest which is on the southern side of Aberdare mountain range. The macrofungi diversity was conducted in the indigenous forest and in more than 15 year old Patula plantation forest , during the wet (long rain season, December 2014) and dry (Short rain season, May, 2015). In each forest type, 15 permanent (20m x 20m) sampling plots distributed across three (3) forest blocks were used. Both field and laboratory methods involved recording abundance of fruiting bodies, taxonomic identity of species and analysis of diversity indices and measures in terms of species richness, density and diversity. R statistical program was used to analyze for species diversity and Canoco 4.5 software for species composition. A total number of 76 genera in 28 families and 224 species were encountered in both forest types. The most represented taxa belonged to the Agaricaceae (16%), Polyporaceae (12%), Marasmiaceae, Mycenaceae (7%) families respectively. Most of the recorded macro-fungi were saprophytic, mostly colonizing the litter 38% and wood 34% based substrates, which was followed by soil organic dwelling species (17%). Ecto-mycorrhiza fungi (5%) and parasitic fungi (2%) were the least encountered. The data established that indigenous forests (native ecosystems) hosts a wide range of macrofungi assemblage in terms of density (2.6 individual fruit bodies / m2), species richness (8.3 species / plot) and species diversity (1.49/ plot level) compared to the plantation forest. The Conversion of native forest to plantation forest also interfered with species composition though did not alter species diversity. Seasonality was also shown to significantly affect the diversity of macro-fungi and 61% of the total species being present during the wet season. Based on the present findings, forested ecosystems in Kenya hold diverse macro-fungi community which warrants conservation measures.

Keywords: diversity, Indigenous forest, macro-fungi, plantation forest, season

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238 Biophysical Assessment of the Ecological Condition of Wetlands in the Parkland and Grassland Natural Regions of Alberta, Canada

Authors: Marie-Claude Roy, David Locky, Ermias Azeria, Jim Schieck

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It is estimated that up to 70% of the wetlands in the Parkland and Grassland natural regions of Alberta have been lost due to various land-use activities. These losses include ecosystem function and services they once provided. Those wetlands remaining are often embedded in a matrix of human-modified habitats and despite efforts taken to protect them the effects of land-uses on wetland condition and function remain largely unknown. We used biophysical field data and remotely-sensed human footprint data collected at 322 open-water wetlands by the Alberta Biodiversity Monitoring Institute (ABMI) to evaluate the impact of surrounding land use on the physico-chemistry characteristics and plant functional traits of wetlands. Eight physio-chemistry parameters were assessed: wetland water depth, water temperature, pH, salinity, dissolved oxygen, total phosphorus, total nitrogen, and dissolved organic carbon. Three plant functional traits were evaluated: 1) origin (native and non-native), 2) life history (annual, biennial, and perennial), and 3) habitat requirements (obligate-wetland and obligate-upland). Intensity land-use was quantified within a 250-meter buffer around each wetland. Ninety-nine percent of wetlands in the Grassland and Parkland regions of Alberta have land-use activities in their surroundings, with most being agriculture-related. Total phosphorus in wetlands increased with the cover of surrounding agriculture, while salinity, total nitrogen, and dissolved organic carbon were positively associated with the degree of soft-linear (e.g. pipelines, trails) land-uses. The abundance of non-native and annual/biennial plants increased with the amount of agriculture, while urban-industrial land-use lowered abundance of natives, perennials, and obligate wetland plants. Our study suggests that land-use types surrounding wetlands affect the physicochemical and biological conditions of wetlands. This research suggests that reducing human disturbances through reclamation of wetland buffers may enhance the condition and function of wetlands in agricultural landscapes.

Keywords: wetlands, biophysical assessment, land use, grassland and parkland natural regions

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237 Occupational Challenges and Adjustment Strategies of Internally Displaced Persons in Abuja, Nigeria

Authors: David Obafemi Adebayo

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An occupational challenge has been identified as one of the factors that could cripple set goals and life ambitions of an Internally Displaced Person (IDP). The main thrust of this study is therefore, explore the use of life support/adjustment strategy with a view to repositioning these internally displaced persons in Nigeria in revamping their goals and achieving their life-long ambitions. The study intends to investigate whether there exist, on the basis of gender, religion, years of working experience and educational qualification any significant difference in the occupational challenges and adjustment strategies of IDPs. The study being descriptive of survey type adopted a multi-stage sampling technique to select the minimum of 400 internally displaced persons from IDP camps in Yimitu Village, Waru District in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Abuja. The research instrument used for the study was a researcher-designed questionnaire entitled “Questionnaire on Occupational Challenges and Adjustment Strategy of Internally Displaced Persons (QOCASIDPs)”. Eight null hypotheses were tested at 0.05 alpha levels of significance. Frequency counts and percentages, means and rank order, t-test, Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) and Duncan Multiple Range Test (DMRT) (where applicable) were employed to analyze the data. The Study determined whether occupational challenges of internally displaced persons included loss of employment, vocational discrimination, marginalization by employers of labour, isolation due to joblessness, lack of occupational freedom, which were found to be true. The results were discussed in line with the findings. The study established the place of notable adjustment strategies adopted by internally displaced person like engaging in petty trading, sourcing soft loans from NGOs, setting up small-scale businesses in groups, acquiring new skills, engaging in further education, among others. The study established that there was no significant difference in the occupational challenges of IDPs on the basis of years of working experience and highest educational qualifications, though there was significant difference on the basis of gender as well as religion. Based on the findings of the study, recommendations were made.

Keywords: internally displaced persons, occupational challenges, adjustment strategies, Abuja-Nigeria

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236 MAOD Is Estimated by Sum of Contributions

Authors: David W. Hill, Linda W. Glass, Jakob L. Vingren

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Maximal accumulated oxygen deficit (MAOD), the gold standard measure of anaerobic capacity, is the difference between the oxygen cost of exhaustive severe intensity exercise and the accumulated oxygen consumption (O2; mL·kg–1). In theory, MAOD can be estimated as the sum of independent estimates of the phosphocreatine and glycolysis contributions, which we refer to as PCr+glycolysis. Purpose: The purpose was to test the hypothesis that PCr+glycolysis provides a valid measure of anaerobic capacity in cycling and running. Methods: The participants were 27 women (mean ± SD, age 22 ±1 y, height 165 ± 7 cm, weight 63.4 ± 9.7 kg) and 25 men (age 22 ± 1 y, height 179 ± 6 cm, weight 80.8 ± 14.8 kg). They performed two exhaustive cycling and running tests, at speeds and work rates that were tolerable for ~5 min. The rate of oxygen consumption (VO2; mL·kg–1·min–1) was measured in warmups, in the tests, and during 7 min of recovery. Fingerprick blood samples obtained after exercise were analysed to determine peak blood lactate concentration (PeakLac). The VO2 response in exercise was fitted to a model, with a fast ‘primary’ phase followed by a delayed ‘slow’ component, from which was calculated the accumulated O2 and the excess O2 attributable to the slow component. The VO2 response in recovery was fitted to a model with a fast phase and slow component, sharing a common time delay. Oxygen demand (in mL·kg–1·min–1) was determined by extrapolation from steady-state VO2 in warmups; the total oxygen cost (in mL·kg–1) was determined by multiplying this demand by time to exhaustion and adding the excess O2; then, MAOD was calculated as total oxygen cost minus accumulated O2. The phosphocreatine contribution (area under the fast phase of the post-exercise VO2) and the glycolytic contribution (converted from PeakLac) were summed to give PCr+glycolysis. There was not an interaction effect involving sex, so values for anaerobic capacity were examined using a two-way ANOVA, with repeated measures across method (PCr+glycolysis vs MAOD) and mode (cycling vs running). Results: There was a significant effect only for exercise mode. There was no difference between MAOD and PCr+glycolysis: values were 59 ± 6 mL·kg–1 and 61 ± 8 mL·kg–1 in cycling and 78 ± 7 mL·kg–1 and 75 ± 8 mL·kg–1 in running. Discussion: PCr+glycolysis is a valid measure of anaerobic capacity in cycling and running, and it is as valid for women as for men.

Keywords: alactic, anaerobic, cycling, ergometer, glycolysis, lactic, lactate, oxygen deficit, phosphocreatine, running, treadmill

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235 The Emergence of Cold War Heritage: United Kingdom Cold War Bunkers and Sites

Authors: Peter Robinson, Milka Ivanova

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Despite the growing interest in the Cold War period and heritage, little attention has been paid to the presentation and curatorship of Cold War heritage in eastern or western Europe. In 2021 Leeds Beckett University secured a British Academy Grant to explore visitor experiences, curatorship, emotion, and memory at Cold War-related tourist sites, comparing the perspectives of eastern and western European sites through research carried out in the UK and Bulgaria. The research explores the themes of curatorship, experience, and memory. Many of the sites included in the research in the UK-based part of the project are nuclear bunkers that have been decommissioned and are now open to visitors. The focus of this conference abstract is one of several perspectives drawn from a British Academy Grant-funded project exploring curatorship, visitor experience and nostalgia and memory in former cold war spaces in the UK, bringing together critical comparisons between western and eastern European sites. The project identifies specifically the challenges of ownership, preservation and presentation and discusses the challenges facing those who own, manage, and provide access to cold war museums and sites. The research is underpinned by contested issues of authenticity and ownership, discussing narrative accounts of those involved in caring for and managing these sites. The research project draws from interviews with key stakeholders, site observations, visitor surveys, and content analysis of Trip advisor posts. Key insights from the project include the external challenges owners and managers face from a lack of recognition of and funding for important Cold War sites in the UK that are at odds with interest shown in cold war sites by visitors to Cold War structures and landmarks. The challenges center on the lack of consistent approaches toward cold war heritage conservation, management, and ownership, lack of curatorial expertise and over-reliance on no-expert interpretation and presentation of heritage, the effect of the passage of time on personal connections to cold war heritage sites, the dissipating technological knowledge base, the challenging structure that does not lend themselves easily as visitor attractions or museums, the questionable authenticity of artifacts, the limited archival material, and quite often limited budgets. A particularly interesting insight focusing on nuclear bunkers has been on the difficulties in site reinterpretation because of the impossibility of fully exploring the enormity of nuclear war as a consistent threat of the Cold War. Further insights from the research highlight the secrecy of many of the sites as a key marketing strategy, particularly in relation to the nuclear bunker sites included in the project.

Keywords: cold war, curatorship, heritage, nuclear bunkers.

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