Search results for: Noor Abdelhamid

Authors: T. Manzur, S. Iffat, M. A. Noor

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In this paper, relationship between different properties of IC concrete and water cement ratio, obtained from a comprehensive experiment conducted on IC using local materials (Burnt clay chips- BC) is presented. In addition, saturated SAP was used as an IC material in some cases. Relationships have been developed through regression analysis. The focus of this analysis is on developing relationship between a dependent variable and an independent variable. Different percent replacements of BC and water cement ratios were used. Compressive strength, modulus of elasticity, water permeability and chloride permeability were tested and variations of these parameters were analyzed with respect to water cement ratio.

Keywords: compressive strength, concrete, curing, lightweight, aggregate, superabsorbent polymer, internal curing

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Authors: Noor Shakila Shaari

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Though consumptions of luxury goods have had significant attention over the years, ‘preloved’ luxury goods remains a somewhat limited area of study especially in Asian countries such as Malaysia. This paper examines the relevancy of the framework for luxury goods in context to ‘preloved’ luxury goods and whether these two holds the same perception and purchase intention in the eyes of the consumer. A conceptualize framework was derived and findings show that self-expression, conspicuous behaviour and value-expressive and social-adjustive functions are key factors to consumers perception and buying intention of ‘preloved’ luxury goods.

Keywords: consumer behaviour, consumer perception, luxury goods, Malaysia, preloved luxury goods, purchase intention

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Authors: Nursuhaila Ibrahim, Noor Hanim Rahmat, Nurul Ain Hasni, Nursyuhada Zakaria

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Past studies have shown that class discussions in the ESL classrooms not only helped students exchange ideas with their peers. Students also learn turn taking skills throughout the discussion. Through interacting with their peers, learners learn to use turn-taking strategies. They learn to wait for their turn, to listen to the ideas of others, to disagree, or to agree, and to add on more points in the conversation. This quantitative research explores students’ perception on class discussions and how the discussions influence their choice of turn-taking strategies. Findings of this research will have interesting implications towards the use of class discussions in the ESL classrooms.

Keywords: ESL, class discussions, turn-taking skills, peers

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Authors: Noor Attar

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This paper provides an overview of the current situation of HIV/AIDS patients in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) and a literature review of the concepts of stigma communication, communication of social support. These concepts provide the basis for the proposed methods, which will include conducting a textual analysis of materials that are currently distributed to family members of people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHIV/A) in KSA and creating an educational brochure. The brochure will aim to help families of PLWHIV/A in KSA (1) understand how stigma shapes the experience of PLWHIV/A, (2) realize the role of positive communication as a helpful social support, and (3) develop the ability to provide positive social support for their loved ones.

Keywords: HIV/AIDS, Saudi Arabia, social support, stigma communication

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Authors: Noor Attar

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This paper proposes a qualitative study to examine the roles of the female characters in the Saudi YouTube soap opera Takki and audience reactions to them. It draws on concepts from Western feminist media studies and information about current portrayals of Saudi women in Saudi TV. The study will identify the themes that Takki presents related to new professional and personal opportunities for Saudi women and investigate Saudi women’s views of those themes. And finally, it will demonstrate how those themes may relate to the evolving positions and aspirations of Saudi women.

Keywords: a qualitative analysis, female characters, Saudi Arabia, Western feminist media

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Authors: Norliza Saparin, Ahmadilfitri Noor, Mohd Suria Affandi Yusoff, Shawaluddin Tahiruddin

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A palm oil mill produces crude palm oil (CPO) and has many operation units that comprises of sterilization, stripping, digestion and pressing, clarification, purification, drying and storage. This study investigated the total chlorine in palm fruit and CPO after each operating units. The total chlorine were determined by Mitsubishi NSX-2100 H, Trace Elemental Analyzer. The trace elemental analyzer is a furnace system with a micro-coulometric detector that was used for measuring and detecting total chlorine whether in organic or inorganic form. This determination is important as the chlorine is a direct precursor for 3-MCPD ester.

Keywords: chlorine, micro-coulometric, palm oil, 3-MCPD

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Authors: Bassam M. Abunahel, Nurul Zahirah Noor Azman, Munirah Jamil

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The effect of needle diameter on the morphological structure of electrospun n-Bi₂O₃/epoxy-PVA nanofibers has been investigated using three different types of needle diameters. The results were observed and investigated using two techniques of scanning electron microscope (SEM). The first technique is backscattered SEM while the second is secondary electron SEM. The results demonstrate that there is a correlation between the needle diameter and the morphology of electrospun nanofibers. As the internal needle diameter decreases, the average nanofiber diameter decreases and the fibers get thinner and smoother without agglomeration or beads formation. Moreover, with small needle diameter the nanofibrous porosity get larger compared with large needle diameter.

Keywords: needle diameter, fiber diameter, porosity, agglomeration

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Authors: Hadjoui Abdelhamid, Saimi Ahmed

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The hybrid h-p finite element method for the dynamic behavior of nonlinear rotors is described in this paper. The standard h-version method of discretizing the problem is retained, but modified to allow the use of polynomially-enriched beam elements. A hierarchically enriching element will thus not affect the nodal displacement and rotation, but will influence the values of the nodal bending moment and shear force is used. The deterministic movements of rotation and translation of the support which are coupled to the excitations due to unbalance are also taken into account. We study also the geometric dissymmetry of the shaft and the disc, thus the equations of motion of the rotor contain variable parametric coefficients over time that can lead to a lateral dynamic instability. The effects of movements combined support for bearings are analyzed and discussed through Campbell diagrams and spectral analyses. A program is made in Matlab. After validation of the program, several examples are studied. The influence of physical and geometric parameters on the natural frequencies of the shaft is determined through the study of these examples. Among these parameters, we include the variation in the diameter and the thickness of the rotor, the position of the disc.

Keywords: Campbell diagram, critical speeds, nonlinear rotor, version h-p of FEM

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Authors: Ofosuhene O. Apenteng, Noor Azina Ismail

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Recently tourism is a major foreign exchange earner in the World. In this paper, we propose the mathematical model to study the impact of tourists on the spread of HIV incidences using compartmental differential equation models. Simulation studies of reproduction number are used to demonstrate new insights on the spread of HIV disease. The periodogram analysis of a time series was used to determine the speed at which the disease is spread. The results indicate that with the persistent flow of tourism into a country, the disease status has increased the epidemic rate. The result suggests that the government must put more control on illegal prostitution, unprotected sexual activity as well as to emphasis on prevention policies that include the safe sexual activity through the campaign by the tourism board.

Keywords: HIV/AIDS, mathematical transmission modeling, tourists, stability, simulation

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Authors: Fekkak Bouazza, Menaa Mohamed, Loukriz Abdelhamid, Krim Mohamed L.

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This paper presents modeling and control strategy for the grid connected wind turbine system based on Permanent Magnet Synchronous Generator (PMSG). The considered system is based on back-to-back converter topology. The Grid Side Converter (GSC) achieves the DC bus voltage control and unity power factor. The Machine Side Converter (MSC) assures the PMSG speed control. The PMSG is used as a variable speed generator and connected directly to the turbine without gearbox. The pitch angle control is not either considered in this study. Further, Optimal Tip Speed Ratio (OTSR) based MPPT control strategy is used to ensure the most energy efficiency whatever the wind speed variations. A filter (L) is put between the GSC and the grid to reduce current ripple and to improve the injected power quality. The proposed grid connected wind system is built under MATLAB/Simulink environment. The simulation results show the feasibility of the proposed topology and performance of its control strategies.

Keywords: wind, grid, PMSG, MPPT, OTSR

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Authors: Muhaimin Bin Sulam, Abdul Mutalib Embong, Azelin Mohamed Noor

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This paper presents the reinvention of the role of education (tarbiyyah) in the social influence of organizations focusing on the sustainability of a specific religio-political organization. The objective of the paper is to describe how the position secured by education could transform the organization while maintaining its objective and vision. The study employed the qualitative approach that involves data from conducted interviews. An analysis on the role political leaders play in educating the organization in the context of ideological struggle is also analyzed. The process description also evaluates how education could intellectualize its followers and members which inspires them to submit to their leaders and the organization. This extensive cultivation of religio-political doctrine could offer a new interpretation on politics.

Keywords: religiopolitical organization, Malaysia, education (Tarbiyyah), followers, political movement

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Authors: Suraini Mohd Rhouse, Noor Lela Ahmad, Nek Kamal Yeop Yunus, Rosfizah Md Taib

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This article aims to explore the importance of trust to women entrepreneurs. In particular, the research uses a social constructionist lens to examine ways in which women entrepreneurs construct trust in relation to their various stakeholders. A semi-structured interview was used to gather the data. The findings suggest women highlight the importance of trust in order to establish customer satisfaction that can further develop customer loyalty. In addition, aspect of trust with the employees is seen as vital for building organizational commitment to the business organization. Women also see the trust dimension in terms of their relationships with financial providers in order to gain approval for financial resources. This article contributes to the literature on the value of trust to women’s business environments.

Keywords: qualitative, social constructionist, trust, women entrepreneurship

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Authors: Ouafa Benaida, Abdelhamid Loukil, Adda Ali Pacha

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In recent years, the growing interest of scientists in the field of image processing and analysis of underwater images and videos has been strengthened following the emergence of new underwater exploration techniques, such as the emergence of autonomous underwater vehicles and the use of underwater image sensors facilitating the exploration of underwater mineral resources as well as the search for new species of aquatic life by biologists. Indeed, underwater images and videos have several defects and must be preprocessed before their analysis. Underwater landscapes are usually darkened due to the interaction of light with the marine environment: light is absorbed as it travels through deep waters depending on its wavelength. Additionally, light does not follow a linear direction but is scattered due to its interaction with microparticles in water, resulting in low contrast, low brightness, color distortion, and restricted visibility. The improvement of the underwater image is, therefore, more than necessary in order to facilitate its analysis. The research presented in this paper aims to implement and evaluate a set of classical techniques used in the field of improving the quality of underwater images in several color representation spaces. These methods have the particularity of being simple to implement and do not require prior knowledge of the physical model at the origin of the degradation.

Keywords: underwater image enhancement, histogram normalization, histogram equalization, contrast limited adaptive histogram equalization, single-scale retinex

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Authors: Fahim Kahlouche, Alaoua Bouaicha, Sihem Chaîbeddra, Sid-Ali Rafa, Abdelhamid Benouali

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A designing of a structure requires its realization on rough or sloping ground. Besides the problem of the stability of the landslide, the behavior of the foundations that are bearing the structure is influenced by the destabilizing effect of the ground’s slope. This article focuses on the analysis of the slope stability exposed to loading by introducing the different factors influencing the slope’s behavior on the one hand, and on the influence of this slope on the foundation’s behavior on the other hand. This study is about the elastoplastic modelization using FLAC 2D. This software is based on the finite difference method, which is one of the older methods of numeric resolution of differential equations system with initial and boundary conditions. It was developed for the geotechnical simulation calculation. The aim of this simulation is to demonstrate the notable effect of shear modulus « G », cohesion « C », inclination angle (edge) « β », and distance between the foundation and the head of the slope on the stability of the slope as well as the stability of the foundation. In our simulation, the slope is constituted by homogenous ground. The foundation is considered as rigid/hard; therefore, the loading is made by the application of the vertical strengths on the nodes which represent the contact between the foundation and the ground. 

Keywords: slope, shallow foundation, numeric method, FLAC 2D

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Authors: Nurul Amziah Md Yunus, Izhal Abdul Halin, Nasri Sulaiman, Noor Faezah Ismail, Nik Hasniza Nik Aman

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Nanotechnology has become the world attention in various applications including the solar cells devices due to the uniqueness and benefits of achieving low cost and better performances of devices. Recently, thin film solar cells such as cadmium telluride (CdTe), copper-indium-gallium-diSelenide (CIGS), copper-zinc-tin-sulphide (CZTS), and dye-sensitized solar cells (DSSC) enhanced by nanotechnology have attracted much attention. Thus, a compilation of nanotechnology devices giving the progress in the solar cells has been presented. It is much related to nanoparticles or nanocrystallines, carbon nanotubes, and nanowires or nanorods structures.

Keywords: nanotechnology, nanocrystalline, nanowires, carbon nanotubes, nanorods, thin film solar cells

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Authors: Farid Benkaci-Alia, Abdelhamid Neggada, Sophie Laurentb

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A new extraction method of polyphenols from honey using a biodegradable resin was developed and compared with the common commercial resin amberlite XAD2. For this purpose, three honey samples of Algerian origin were selected for the different physico-chemical and biochemical parameters study. After extraction of the target compounds by both resins, the polyphenol content was determined, the antioxidant activity was tested, and LC-MS analyses were performed for identification and quantification. The results showed that physico-chemical and biochemical parameters meet the norms of the International Honey commission, and the H1 sample seemed to be of high quality. The optimal conditions of extraction by biodegradable resin were a pH of 3, an adsorption dose of 40 g/L, a contact time of 50 min, an extraction temperature of 60°C and no stirring. The regeneration and reuse number of both resins was three cycles. The polyphenol contents demonstrated a higher extraction efficiency of biosorbent than of XAD2, especially in H1. LC-MS analyses allowed for the identification and quantification of fifteen compounds in the different honey samples extracted using both resins and the most abundant compound was 3,4,5-trimethoxybenzoic acid. In addition, the biosorbent extracts showed stronger antioxidant activities than the XAD2 extracts.

Keywords: extraction, polyphénols, biosorbent, resin amberlite, HPLC-MS

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Authors: Noor-ul-Ain, Muhammad Thair Khan, Adeela Ajmal, Hamid Mustafa

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Pakistan is an agricultural country and livestock only share 11.8 percent to national GDP during 2015-16. Pakistan is a 3rd largest milk producing country having 41.2, 35.6, 29.4, 68.4 and 1.0 million head cattle, buffalo, sheep, goat and camel, respectively. Modern urbanization and shortage of feed resources for livestock species in a country is an alarming threat. The introduction of new technology and advanced techniques solve this issue. This includes drought feeding, increase production, aid to crop management, balance nutrition and easily storaged of wet feed products. It is therefore clear that silage has important role in animal feed and feeding. Financial model of this study clear the effectiveness of silage. Therefore, it is revealed from this study that silage is a cost-effective option for a profitable dairy farming in Pakistan.

Keywords: feed, silage, dairy, production, Pakistan

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Authors: Abderrahmane El Kachani, El Mahjoub Chakir, Anass Ait Laachir, Abdelhamid Niaaniaa, Jamal Zerouaoui, Tarik Jarou

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This paper presents a wind turbine based on the doubly fed induction generator (DFIG) connected to the utility grid through a shunt active power filter (SAPF). The whole system is controlled by a double nonlinear predictive controller (DNPC). A Taylor series expansion is used to predict the outputs of the system. The control law is calculated by optimization of the cost function. The first nonlinear predictive controller (NPC) is designed to ensure the high performance tracking of the rotor speed and regulate the rotor current of the DFIG, while the second one is designed to control the SAPF in order to compensate the harmonic produces by the three-phase diode bridge supplied by a passive circuit (rd, Ld). As a result, we obtain sinusoidal waveforms of the stator voltage and stator current. The proposed nonlinear predictive controllers (NPCs) are validated via simulation on a 1.5 MW DFIG-based wind turbine connected to an SAPF. The results obtained appear to be satisfactory and promising.

Keywords: wind power, doubly fed induction generator, shunt active power filter, double nonlinear predictive controller

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Authors: Zainab Ajab Mohideen, Kiran Kaur, A. Basheer Ahamadhu, Noor Azlinda Wan Jan, Sukmawati Muhammad

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The corpus in the digital library is to provide an overview and evidence from library automation that can be used to justify the needs of the digital library. This paper disperses the approach and implementation of the digital library as part of best practices by the Automation Division at Hamzah Sendut Library of the University Science Malaysia (USM). The implemented digital library model emphasizes on the entire library collections, technical perspective, and automation solution. This model served as a foundation for digital library services as part of information delivery in the USM digital library. The approach to digital library includes discussion on key factors, design, architecture, and pragmatic model that has been collected, captured, and identified during the implementation stages. At present, the USM digital library has achieved the status of an Institutional Repository (IR).

Keywords: academic digital library, digital information system, digital library best practice, digital library model

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Authors: Haniza Ahmad, Norliza Saparin, Ahmadilfitri Md Noor, Mohd Suria Affandi Yusoff

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Enzymatic remediation is applied in low free fatty acid (FFA) (<4%) crude palm oil (CPO) to investigate if further FFA reduction is able to take place to produce premium CPO (<1% FFA). There are four different lipase Candida Antartica brands used in this study. Samples submit to enzymatic remediation using rotary evaporator under 100mbar vacuum with rotation at 260rpm. Samples were taken at 4hours, 8hours and 24hours for analyses. FFA less than 1% was achieved after 24hours reaction with 1% enzyme and 2% glycerol. The FFA reduction was intensified with the presence of glycerol who provides more sites for fatty acid attachment. At 2% glycerol, 71-88% FFA was reduced whereas at 1% glycerol, 46-75% FFA reduced. However, partial glycerides was increased with presence of glycerol with 2% add in glycerol showed greater partial glycerides increment compared to 1% glycerol.

Keywords: enzymes, crude palm oil, free fatty acid, glycerol

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Authors: S. M. Abd-Altwab, M. R. Noor El-Din

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This paper aims to the synthesis of new ethoxylated amide as bactericides to prevent the growth of Gram +ve and –ve bacteria of water-in-diesel fuel nanoemulsions over a long period of time as three months. To realize it, eight kinetically stable water-in-diesel fuel nanoemulsions differing in surfactant concentrations and water contents ranging from 4 to 8 and 5 to 8 wt.,wt.,% of total weight of the nanoemulsions, respectively were formed at a temperature of 20 °C. The performance of this ethoxylated amide as bactericides agents against two strains of Gram-negative bacteria, namely, Pseudomonas aeruginosa and Escherichia coli, and two strains of Gram-positive bacteria namely, Staphylococcus aureus and Bacillus subtilis, were evaluated as antimicrobial agents. The maximum and minimum antimicrobial activities were 85 and 71 % against S. aureus and E. coli, respectively, at a concentration of 5 mg/l, pH 7, and 37 °C.

Keywords: nanoemulsion, bacteriocide, diesel fuel, emulsifier

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Authors: Hussen Nasir, Mohd Fitri Mansor, Noor Hidayah Abu

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Liberation of the SME market led to a dynamic competitive business environment. SMEs are considered as an engine for economic growth of most nations. SMEs must be willing to adopt the latest technology and incorporate innovation as part of their business strategies. The aim of this study is to examine the innovation practices (innovation strategy and innovation culture) towards sustaining SME’s performance and the moderating effect of intellectual capital on the relationship of innovation practices on SME’s performance. The study will identify the strongest variables that influence the SMEs performance and proposed several hypothesis toward innovation and intellectual capital. Finally, the study will propose a theoretical framework. The current study will contribute to the knowledge of important on the element of intellectual capital as well as innovation practices in the SMEs performance.

Keywords: intellectual capital, innovation practices, SMEs, performance, innovation strategy, innovation culture

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Authors: Siti Noor Suzila Maqsood-Ul-Haque, Ummi Kalthum Ibrahim, Norekanadirah Abdul Rahman

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Banana are rich in vitamins, potassium and carbohydrate.The objective for this research work is to produce banana milk powder that can help children that suffers from constipation. Two types of the most common dryers used for this purpose are the spray and freeze dryer. The effects of the type of dryers, pump feed speed in the spray dryer and the ratio proportion of the banana milk powder were investigated in the study. The result indicate that increasing proportion ratio of the banana milk powder produce lower yield of the powder.From the result it is also concluded that speed 2 is more suitable in the production of the banana milk powder since the value of the moisture content is lower.

Keywords: freeze dryer, spray dryer, moisture content, dissolution, banana, milk

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Authors: Issam Aouari, Abdelmalek Abdelhamid

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For seismologists, the characterization of seismic demand should include the amplitude and duration of strong shaking in the system. The duration of ground shaking is one of the key parameters in earthquake resistant design of structures. This paper proposes a nonlinear statistical model to estimate earthquake ground motion duration in soft soils using multiple seismicity indicators. Three definitions of ground motion duration proposed by literature have been applied. With a comparative study, we select the most significant definition to use for predict the duration. A stochastic model is presented for the McCann and Shah Method using nonlinear regression analysis based on a data set for moment magnitude, source to site distance and site conditions. The data set applied is taken from PEER strong motion databank and contains shallow earthquakes from different regions in the world; America, Turkey, London, China, Italy, Chili, Mexico...etc. Main emphasis is placed on soft site condition. The predictive relationship has been developed based on 600 records and three input indicators. Results have been compared with others published models. It has been found that the proposed model can predict earthquake ground motion duration in soft soils for different regions and sites conditions.

Keywords: duration, earthquake, prediction, regression, soft soil

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Authors: Lizhou Chen, Abdelhamid Belgaid, Assem Elsayed, Xiaoming Yang

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Compression index is essential in foundation settlement calculation. The traditional method for determining compression index is consolidation test which is expensive and time consuming. Many researchers have used regression methods to develop empirical equations for predicting compression index from soil properties. Based on a large number of compression index data collected from consolidation tests, the accuracy of some popularly empirical equations were assessed. It was found that primary compression index is significantly overestimated in some equations while it is underestimated in others. The sensitivity analyses of soil parameters including water content, liquid limit and void ratio were performed. The results indicate that the compression index obtained from void ratio is most accurate. The ANOVA (analysis of variance) demonstrates that the equations with multiple soil parameters cannot provide better predictions than the equations with single soil parameter. In other words, it is not necessary to develop the relationships between compression index and multiple soil parameters. Meanwhile, it was noted that secondary compression index is approximately 0.7-5.0% of primary compression index with an average of 2.0%. In the end, the proposed prediction equations using power regression technique were provided that can provide more accurate predictions than those from existing equations.

Keywords: compression index, clay, settlement, consolidation, secondary compression index, soil parameter

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Authors: Aicha Majda, Abdelhamid El Hassani

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Lung CT image segmentation is a prerequisite in lung CT image analysis. Most of the conventional methods need a post-processing to deal with the abnormal lung CT scans such as lung nodules or other lesions. The simplest similarity measure in the standard Graph Cuts Algorithm consists of directly comparing the pixel values of the two neighboring regions, which is not accurate because this kind of metrics is extremely sensitive to minor transformations such as noise or other artifacts problems. In this work, we propose an improved version of the standard graph cuts algorithm based on the Patch-Based similarity metric. The boundary penalty term in the graph cut algorithm is defined Based on Patch-Based similarity measurement instead of the simple intensity measurement in the standard method. The weights between each pixel and its neighboring pixels are Based on the obtained new term. The graph is then created using theses weights between its nodes. Finally, the segmentation is completed with the minimum cut/Max-Flow algorithm. Experimental results show that the proposed method is very accurate and efficient, and can directly provide explicit lung regions without any post-processing operations compared to the standard method.

Keywords: graph cuts, lung CT scan, lung parenchyma segmentation, patch-based similarity metric

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Authors: Firdaus Khairi Abdul Kadir, Nazihah Rusli, Noor Aisyah Abdul Aziz

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Islam is a comprehensive religion encompassing all aspects of society’s life such as social, economic, political, cultural and environmental. The environment is part of the manifestation of God’s greatness which has pearls of wisdom, bestowed upon human beings to make them realize that everything is in the hands of God (Allah SWT). However, the equilibrium of nature could be disturbed from the excessive exploitation by humans’ hands. As a caliph on this earth, it is the responsibility of human beings to look after the environment proactively. Besides, Islam calls for the execution of accountable development and respecting the principles of sustainability. Therefore, this study focuses on the role of human beings as caliphs on this earth who are responsible for nature and their acts in conserving and preserving the environment based on the approach of religious education. This study also used the research method of the survey library.

Keywords: environment, human beings, caliph, tauhid, Allah SWT

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Authors: Suha K. Shihab, Zahid A. Khan, Aas Mohammad, Arshad Noor Siddiquee

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This paper presents the influence of cutting parameters (cutting speed, feed and depth of cut) on flank wear (VB) in turning of 52100 hard alloy steel using multilayer coated carbide insert under dry condition. Nine experiments were performed based on Taguchi’s L9 orthogonal array. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to determine the effects of the cutting parameters on flank wear. The results of the study revealed that the cutting speed (A) and feed rate (B) are the dominant factors affecting flank wear, while the depth of cut (C) has not a significant effect. The optimal combination of the cutting parameters for flank wear is found to be A1B1C1. The mathematical model for flank wear is found to be statistically significant. The predicted and measured values of flank wear are found to be very close to each other.

Keywords: flank wear, hard turning, Taguchi approach, optimization

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Authors: A. K. M. Kamrul Islam, Abdelhamid Bouchachia, Suang Cang, Hongnian Yu

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Forecasting model has a great impact in terms of prediction and continues to do so into the future. Although many forecasting models have been studied in recent years, most researchers focus on different forecasting methods based on fuzzy time series to solve forecasting problems. The forecasted models accuracy fully depends on the two terms that are the length of the interval in the universe of discourse and the content of the forecast rules. Moreover, a hybrid forecasting method can be an effective and efficient way to improve forecasts rather than an individual forecasting model. There are different hybrids forecasting models which combined fuzzy time series with evolutionary algorithms, but the performances are not quite satisfactory. In this paper, we proposed a hybrid forecasting model which deals with the first order as well as high order fuzzy time series and particle swarm optimization to improve the forecasted accuracy. The proposed method used the historical enrollments of the University of Alabama as dataset in the forecasting process. Firstly, we considered an automatic clustering algorithm to calculate the appropriate interval for the historical enrollments. Then particle swarm optimization and fuzzy time series are combined that shows better forecasting accuracy than other existing forecasting models.

Keywords: fuzzy time series (fts), particle swarm optimization, clustering algorithm, hybrid forecasting model

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Authors: Marsudi, Noor Hidayat, Ratno Bagus Edy Wibowo

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This paper considers a deterministic model for the transmission dynamics of HIV/AIDS in which condom campaign and treatment are both important for the disease management. In modelling of the spread of AIDS, the population is divided into six subpopulations, namely susceptible population, susceptible population who change their behavior due to education condom campaign, infected population, pre-AIDS population, treated population and full-blown AIDS population. We calculate the effective reproduction number using the next generation matrix method and investigate the existence and stability of the equilibrium points. A sensitivity analysis discovers parameters that have a high impact on effective reproduction number and should be targeted by intervention strategies. Numerical simulations are given to illustrate and verify our analytic results.

Keywords: HIV/AIDS, condom campaign, antiretroviral treatment, effective reproduction number, stability and sensitivity analysis

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