Search results for: Mario Brito

Authors: Wu Hu

Abstract:

There is an increasing amount of research bridging the gap between transportation and subjective well-being (SWB). However, travel SWB research in this area is still sporadic. Therefore, we are in need of a more systematic body of work that examines travel SWB considering various work occupations, working conditions, commuting variabilities, and other related variables, and develops updated qualitative and quantitative methods to inform the transportation design. In this Super Mario Guide, the author reflects on the related elements involved with travel SWB under four categories (having Super Mario as the protagonist): 1. the starting point including variables like living conditions; 2. the commuter including the commuter’s age, gender, occupation, and others; 3. the commuting including commuting environment, vehicles, commuting time, commuting vehicles flexibility and variability and others; 4. destination including the workplace conditions, the corporate culture on working flexibility, the employer supportiveness and others. In addition, with the rise of new vehicles such as auto-driving, this research can play a significant role to better understand travel SWB and to guide the design of more efficient travelling systems so as to improve worker performance and general SWB. The author also shares thoughts on promising areas for future research.

Keywords: transportation, subjective well-being (SWB), commuting, happiness

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Authors: Olatokunbo Shoyemi, Mario Brito, Ian Dawson

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In recent times, the Nigerian motor insurers have experienced high volume of motor insurance claim pay-outs and insignificant contribution to the net premium income of the Nigerian insurance market, which has been a major concern for the shareholders/stakeholders. It has been argued that there are many factors that have brought about these concerns. However, anecdotal evidence (ongoing debates among industry practitioners) suggests prevalence of fraud due to poor practices in motor insurance business in Nigeria. This study is therefore aimed to carry out an assessment of fraud in motor insurance claims as perceived by experts in the Nigerian insurance market. This study adopted a descriptive research design, and the analysis was built on a survey among insurance experts in Nigeria using a designed questionnaire. A purposive and snowball sampling were used to select our sample (N = 120) - representing a selection of all professionally qualified insurance experts in Nigeria insurance industry. The study found that Nigerian insurance experts (i) largely agree that there is a problematic level of fraud in the Nigerian motor insurance industry; (ii) perceive soft fraud to be about 3 times more common than hard fraud in the Nigerian motor insurance industry, and (iii) strongly agree there are problematic impacts from fraud on the solvency of the Nigerian motor insurers. This paper has provided an empirical understanding of the existence, extent, and impact of fraud risks within the Nigerian insurance market based on expert knowledge and insights rather than, as has often been the case, a reliance on individual anecdotes.

Keywords: claims, net premium income, motor insurance, soft fraud, hard fraud

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Authors: Thiago Brito Bezerra

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This paper presents a novel approach to reduce power consumption of digital filters based on dynamic bypassing of partial products in their multipliers. The bypassing elements incorporated into the multiplier hardware eliminate redundant signal transitions, which appear within the carry-save adders when the partial product is zero. This technique reduces the power consumption by around 20%. The circuit implementation was made using the AMS 0.18 um technology. The bypassing technique applied to the circuits is outlined.

Keywords: digital filter, low-power, bypassing technique, low-pass filter

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Authors: Thiago Brito Bezerra, Mauro Lopes de Freitas, Waldir Sabino da Silva Júnior

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The Sigma-Delta A/D converters have been proposed as a practical application for A/D conversion at high rates because of its simplicity and robustness to imperfections in the circuit, also because the traditional converters are more difficult to implement in VLSI technology. These difficulties with conventional conversion methods need precise analog components in their filters and conversion circuits, and are more vulnerable to noise and interference. This paper aims to analyze the architecture, function and application of Analog-Digital converters (A/D) Sigma-Delta to overcome these difficulties, showing some simulations using the Simulink software and Multisim.

Keywords: analysis, oversampling modulator, A/D converters, sigma-delta

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Authors: Luca Zarrilli, Miguel Brito, Marianna Cappucci

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Tourists recently awarded Lisbon as the best city break destination in Europe. This article analyses the various types of tourist experiences in the city of Lisbon. The research method is the questionnaire, aimed at investigating the choices of tourists in the area of mobility, their perception of the quality of life and their level of appreciation of neighbourhoods, landmarks and infrastructures. There is an obvious link between the quality of life and the quality of the tourist experience, but it is difficult to measure it. Through this questionnaire, we hope to have made a small contribution to the understanding of the perceptive sphere of the individual and his choices in terms of behaviour, which is an essential element of any strategy for tourism marketing.

Keywords: Lisbon, mobility, quality of life, perception, tourism, hospitality

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Authors: Ticiane Rossi, Maurício C. Araújo, José O. Brito, Harold S. Freeman

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Natural dyes are gaining interest due their expected low risk to human health and to the environment. In this study, the wash fastness of a natural coloring matter from the liquid waste produced in the steam treatment of eucalyptus wood in textile fabrics was investigated. Specifically, eucalyptus wood extract was used to dye cotton, nylon and wool in an exhaust dyeing process without the addition of the traditional mordanting agents and then submitted to wash fastness analysis. The resulting dyed fabrics were evaluated for color fastness. It was found that wash fastness of dyed fabrics was very good to cotton and excellent to nylon and wool.

Keywords: eucalyptus, natural dye, textile fibers, wash fastness

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Authors: Mario M. Figueroa de la Cruz, Claudia I. Solorzano, Raul Acosta, Ignacio Funes

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This technological development project seeks to create a tool that allows companies, in need of implementing a Data Center, intelligently determining factors for allocating resources support cooling and power supply (UPS) in its conception. The results should show clearly the speed, robustness and reliability of a system designed for deployment in environments where they must manage and protect large volumes of data.

Keywords: telecommunications, data center, fuzzy logic, expert systems

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Authors: Jose Cristiano Pereira, Gilson Brito Alves Lima

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Ergonomics is a key factor affecting the operational safety and quality in the aircraft engine manufacturing industry and evidence shows that the lack of attention to it can increase the risk of accidents. In order to emphasize the importance of ergonomics, this paper systematically reviews the critical processes used in the aircraft engine production industry with focus on the ergonomic factors. about the subject to identify key ergonomic factors. Experts validated the factors and used AHP to rank the factors in order of significance. From the six key risk factors identified, the ones with the highest weight are psychological demand followed by understanding of operational side. These factors suggest that measures must be taken to improve ergonomic factors, quality and safety in the manufacturing of aircraft engines.

Keywords: ergonomics, safety, aviation, aircraft engine production

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Authors: Christian Castro Samaniego, Daniel Icaza Alvarez, Juan Portoviejo Brito

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For this research work, hybrid wind-photovoltaic (SHEF) systems were considered as renewable energy sources that take advantage of wind energy and solar radiation to transform into electrical energy. In the present research work, the feasibility of a wind-photovoltaic hybrid generation system was analyzed for the La Tranca tourist viewpoint of the Chordeleg canton in Ecuador. The research process consisted of the collection of data on solar radiation, temperature, wind speed among others by means of a meteorological station. Simulations were carried out in MATLAB/Simulink based on a mathematical model. In the end, we compared the theoretical radiation-power curves and the measurements made at the site.

Keywords: hybrid system, wind turbine, modeling, simulation, validation, experimental data, panel, Ecuador

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Authors: Rayanne Branco Dos Santos Lima, Lorena Pinheiro Barbosa, Kamila Ferreira Lima, Victor Manuel Tegoma Ruiz, Monyka Brito Lima Dos Santos, Maria Wendiane Gueiros Gaspar, Luzia Camila Coelho Ferreira, Leandro Cardozo Dos Santos Brito, Deyse Maria Alves Rocha

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Introduction: The lack of regulation of the baby's sleep-wake pattern in the first years of life affects the health of thousands of women. Maternal sleep deprivation can trigger or aggravate psychosomatic problems such as depression, anxiety and stress that can directly influence maternal safety, with consequences for the baby's and mother's sleep. Such conditions can affect the family's quality of life and child development. Objective: To correlate maternal security with maternal state anxiety scores and the mother's and baby's total sleep time. Method: Cross-sectional study carried out with 96 mothers of babies aged 10 to 24 months, accompanied by nursing professionals linked to a Federal University in Northeast Brazil. Study variables were maternal security, maternal state anxiety scores, infant latency and sleep time, and total nocturnal sleep time of mother and infant. Maternal safety was calculated using a four-point Likert scale (1=not at all safe, 2=somewhat safe, 3=very safe, 4=completely safe). Maternal anxiety was measured by State-Trait Anxiety Inventory, state-anxiety subscale whose scores vary from 20 to 80 points, and the higher the score, the higher the anxiety levels. Scores below 33 are considered mild; from 33 to 49, moderate and above 49, high. As for the total nocturnal sleep time, values between 7-9 hours of sleep were considered adequate for mothers, and values between 9-12 hours for the baby, according to the guidelines of the National Sleep Foundation. For the sleep latency time, a time equal to or less than 20 min was considered adequate. It is noteworthy that the latency time and the time of night sleep of the mother and the baby were obtained by the mother's subjective report. To correlate the data, Spearman's correlation was used in the statistical package R version 3.6.3. Results: 96 women and babies participated, aged 22 to 38 years (mean 30.8) and 10 to 24 months (mean 14.7), respectively. The average of maternal security was 2.89 (unsafe); Mean maternal state anxiety scores were 43.75 (moderate anxiety). The babies' average sleep latency time was 39.6 min (>20 min). The mean sleep times of the mother and baby were, respectively, 6h and 42min and 8h and 19min, both less than the recommended nocturnal sleep time. Maternal security was positively correlated with maternal state anxiety scores (rh=266, p=0.009) and negatively correlated with infant sleep latency (rh= -0.30. P=0.003). Baby sleep time was positively correlated with maternal sleep time. (rh 0.46, p<0.001). Conclusion: The more secure the mothers considered themselves, the higher the anxiety scores and the shorter the baby's sleep latency. Also, the longer the baby sleeps, the longer the mother sleeps. Thus, interventions are needed to promote the quality and efficiency of sleep for both mother and baby.

Keywords: sleep, anxiety, infant, mother-child relations

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Authors: Prisa Damrongsiri, Kittinan Pongpianskul, Mario Kubek, Herwig Unger

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Apps are today the most important possibility to adapt mobile phones and computers to fulfill the special needs of their users. Location- and context-sensitive programs are hereby the key to support the interaction of the user with his/her environment and also to avoid an overload with a plenty of dispensable information. The contribution shows, how a trusted, secure and really bi-directional communication and interaction among users and their environment can be established and used, e.g. in the field of home automation.

Keywords: apps, context-sensitive, location-sensitive, self-configuration, mobile computing, smart home

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Authors: Flavia Schuler Gomes, Cristina Brito Dias, Emily Schuler

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One of the emerging themes in modern society is migration. What in the past was a route mostly traveled by men, is currently carried out by women and even children. In this sense, the objective of this research was to understand the experiences and repercussions of the migration in the life of young Brazilians who went to Switzerland. The specific objectives were: to know the causes and consequences of migration; how was the adaptation in the country in emotional and educational terms; as how the interviewees feel the impact of living with two cultures simultaneously. The research had a qualitative methodology. The participants were eight young men and women, between the ages of 18 and 25, who migrated to Switzerland as a child. The instrument used was interview technique of life history. The collected data were analyzed through the thematic content analysis. The results indicate that the young people migrated to accompany their mothers; in terms of nationality, two participants feel completely Swiss, and six believe they share Swiss and Brazilian aspects. None of the participants followed an academic career, having secondary education.

Keywords: adaptation, children, culture, migration

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Authors: Amanda R. Teixeira, João H. S. Rego, Gabriel F. S. Brito, Fabricio M. Silva

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The use of superplasticizer additives has provided several advances for the civil construction industry, enabling gains in the rheological behavior and mechanical properties of cementitious matrices. These compounds act at the solid-liquid interface of colloidal suspensions of cement pastes, preventing agglomeration of the particles. Although the use in the concrete industry is wide, the mechanisms of dispersion of concrete admixtures composed of polycarboxylate in cement with supplementary cementitious materials have ample opportunity to be investigated, providing the attainment of increasingly compatible and efficient cement-addition-additive systems. The cements used in the research are Portland Cement CPV and two cements Portland Cement Composite (CPIV) with calcined clay contents of 20% and 28% and three commercial additives based on polycarboxylate. The performance of the additives and obtaining the optimal content was determined by the Marsh Cone test and spread by Mini-Slump.

Keywords: calcined clay, composite cements, superplasticizer additives, polycarboxylate

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Authors: Mario Gianni, Manuel A. Ruiz Garcia, Fiora Pirri

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In this work, we present a Bayesian non-parametric approach to model the motion control of ATVs. The motion control model is based on a Dirichlet Process-Gaussian Process (DP-GP) mixture model. The DP-GP mixture model provides a flexible representation of patterns of control manoeuvres along trajectories of different lengths and discretizations. The model also estimates the number of patterns, sufficient for modeling the dynamics of the ATV.

Keywords: Dirichlet processes, gaussian mixture models, learning motion patterns, tracked robots for urban search and rescue

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Authors: Mario Gómez, José Carlos Rodríguez

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The causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth has been an important issue in the economic literature. This paper studies the causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in Mexico for the period of 1971-2011. In so doing, unit root tests and causality test are applied. The results show that the series are stationary in levels and that there is causality running from economic growth to energy consumption. The energy conservation policies have little or no impact on economic growth in México.

Keywords: causality, economic growth, energy consumption, Mexico

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Authors: Khaled Asfour

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Going for LEED certification is the latest concern in Egyptian practice that only materialized during the last 4 years. Egyptian Consultant Group (ECG) together with Credit Agricole had the vision to design a headquarters (Cairo) that delivers a serious sustainable design. The bank is a strong advocator of “green banking” and supports renewable energy and energy saving projects. Their HQ in Cairo has passed all the hurdles to become the first platinum LEED certificate holder in Egypt. With this design Egyptian practice has finally re-engaged in a serious way with its long-standing traditions in sustainable architecture. Perhaps the closest to our memory is the medieval houses of Cairo. Few centuries later these qualities disappeared with the advent of Modern Movement that focused more on standard modernist image making than real localized quality of living environments. The first person to note this disappearance was Hassan Fathy half a century ago. Despite international applaud for his efforts he had no effect on prevailing local practice that continued senselessly adopting recycled modernist templates. The Egyptian society was not ready to accept any reference to historic architecture. Disciples of Hassan Fathy, few decades later sought, of tackling the lack of interest in green architecture in a different way. Mohamed Awad introduced in his design sustainable ideals inspired from traditional architecture rather than recycling directly historic forms and images. Despite success, this approach did not go far enough to influence the prevailing practice. Since year 2000 Egyptian economy was ebbing and flowing dramatically. This staggering fluctuation coupled by energy crisis has disillusioned architects and clients on the issue of modern image making. No more shining architecture under the sun with high running cost of fossil fuel. They sought of adopting contemporary green measures that offer pleasant living while saving on energy. A revival is on its way but is very slow and timid. The paper will present this problem of reviving sustainable architecture. How this process can be accelerated in order to give stronger impact on current practice will be addressed through the works of Mario Cucinella and Norman Foster.

Keywords: LEED certification, Hasan Fathy, Medieval architecture, Mario Cucinella, Norman Foster

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Authors: Juan Portoviejo Brito, Daniel Icaza Alvarez, Christian Castro Samaniego

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In this article, we present the modeling, simulations, and energy conversion analysis of the solar-wind system for the Quingeo Heritage Center in Ecuador. A numerical model was constructed based on the 19 equations, it was coded in MATLAB R2017a, and the results were compared with the experimental data of the site. The model is built with the purpose of using it as a computer development for the optimization of resources and designs of hybrid systems in the Parish of Quingeo and its surroundings. The model obtained a fairly similar pattern compared to the data and curves obtained in the field experimentally and detailed in manuscript. It is important to indicate that this analysis has been carried out so that in the near future one or two of these power generation systems can be exploited in a massive way according to the budget assigned by the Parish GAD of Quingeo or other national or international organizations with the purpose of preserving this unique colonial helmet in Ecuador.

Keywords: hybrid system, wind turbine, modeling, simulation, Smart Grid, Quingeo Azuay Ecuador

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Authors: Felix Brito

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With the growth of online learning, several higher education institutions have attempted to incorporate technology in their curriculum. Successful technology implementation projects really on technology infrastructure and on the acceptance of education professionals towards innovation. This research study is aimed at illustrating the relevance of the human component in technology implementation projects in higher education by describing the Learning Management System implementation project executed by instructional designers working for a higher education institution in the southeast region of the United States. An analysis of the Transformative Leadership Theory, the Technology Acceptance Model, and the Diffusion of Innovation Process provide the support for a solid understanding of this issue and address recommendations for future technology implementation projects in higher education institutions.

Keywords: diffusion of innovation process, instructional design, leadership, learning management systems, online learning, technology acceptance model, transformative leadership theory

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Authors: Mario Lupaca, Karol Munoz, Victor De Negri

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The present article presents a methodology for the improvement of the energy efficiency in pneumatic systems through the restoring of air. In this way, three techniques of expansion of a cylinder are identified: Expansion using the air of the compressor (conventional), restoring the air (efficient), and combining the air of the compressor and the restored air (hybrid). The methodology starts with the development of the GRAFCET of the system so that it can be decided whether to expand the cylinder in a conventional, efficient, or hybrid way. The methodology can be applied to any case. Finally, graphs of comparison between the three methods of expansion with certain cylinder strokes and workloads are presented, to facilitate the subsequent selection of one system or another.

Keywords: energetic, efficiency, GRAFCET, methodology, pneumatic

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Authors: Mariana Faria Brito Francisquini

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Many thermal phenomena are present and play a substantial role in our daily lives. This presence makes the study of this area at both High School and University levels a very widely explored topic in the literature. However, a lot of important concepts to a meaningful understanding of the world are neglected at the expense of a traditional approach with senseless algebraic problems. In this work, we intend to show how the introduction of new technologies in the classroom, namely thermal cameras, can work in our favor to make a clearer understanding of many of these concepts, such as thermal conductivity. The use of thermal cameras in the classroom tends to diminish the everlasting abstractness in thermal phenomena as they enable us to visualize something that happens right before our eyes, yet we cannot see it. In our study, we will provide the same amount of heat to metallic cylindrical rods of the same length, but different materials in order to study the thermal conductivity of each one. In this sense, the thermal camera allows us to visualize the increase in temperature along each rod in real time enabling us to infer how heat is being transferred from one part of the rod to another. Therefore, we intend to show how this approach can contribute to the exposure of students to more enriching, intellectually prolific, scenarios than those provided by traditional approaches.

Keywords: teaching physics, thermal cameras, thermal conductivity, thermal physics

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Authors: Tea Poklepović, Zdravka Aljinović, Mario Matković

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Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) according to Markowitz states that investors form mean-variance efficient portfolios which maximizes their utility. Markowitz proposed the standard deviation as a simple measure for portfolio risk and the lower semi-variance as the only risk measure of interest to rational investors. This paper uses a third volatility estimator based on intraday data and compares three efficient frontiers on the Croatian Stock Market. The results show that range-based volatility estimator outperforms both mean-variance and lower semi-variance model.

Keywords: variance, lower semi-variance, range-based volatility, MPT

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Authors: Mario Zgela

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Application of Benford’s Law is very rarely covered in the field of stock market analysis, especially in percentage change of stock market indices. Deutscher Aktien IndeX (DAX) is very important stock market index of Frankfurt Deutsche Börse which serves as underlying basis for large number of financial instruments. It is calculated for selected 30 German blue chips stocks. In this paper, Benford's Law first digit test is applied on 10 year DAX daily percentage changes in order to check compliance. Deviations of 10 year DAX percentage changes set as well as distortions of certain subsets from Benford's Law distribution are detected. It is possible that deviations are the outcome of speculations; and psychological influence should not be eliminated.

Keywords: Benford's Law, DAX, index percentage changes, stock market

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Authors: Mario Kubek, Herwig Unger

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Centroid terms are single words that semantically and topically characterise text documents and so may serve as their very compact representation in automatic text processing. In the present paper, centroids are used to measure the relevance of text documents with respect to a given search query. Thus, a new graphbased paradigm for searching texts in large corpora is proposed and evaluated against keyword-based methods. The first, promising experimental results demonstrate the usefulness of the centroid-based search procedure. It is shown that especially the routing of search queries in interactive and decentralised search systems can be greatly improved by applying this approach. A detailed discussion on further fields of its application completes this contribution.

Keywords: search algorithm, centroid, query, keyword, co-occurrence, categorisation

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Authors: Amir Abdelqodus, Mario Shehata

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The purpose of the paper is to model and evaluate the aerodynamic coefficients and stability derivatives of a Vertical, Take-off and Landing Unmanned Aerial Vehicle configuration (VTOL UAV), which is a fixed wing UAV and a quad-copter hybrid capable of both vertical and conventional take-off and/or landing. The aerodynamic analysis of this configuration was carried out using CFD commercial package Ansys Fluent. Also, the aerodynamic coefficients for the case of the UAV without the quad-copter is carried out analytically using MATLAB programmed codes, and the resulting data is verified using Lifting Line Theory and potential method programs. The two results are then compared to understand the effect of adding the quad-copter on the aerodynamic performance of the UAV.

Keywords: aerodynamics, CFD, potential flow, UAV, VTOL

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Authors: Mario Winkelhaus, Franz Vallée

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Many companies see horizontal cooperation as a promising possibility to increase their efficiency in outbound logistics. The selection of suitable partners has particular importance in the formation of horizontal cooperation. Up until now, literature mainly focused on general applicable methods for the identification of cooperation partners without a closer examination of the specific area where the cooperation takes place. Thus, specific criteria as a basis for the partner selection in the field of logistics cooperation are missing. To close this scientific gap, an explorative research approach is used to answer the open question of the article. To collect the needed criteria, a qualitative experiment with 20 participants from 16 companies was done. Within this workshop, general criteria, as well as sector-specific requirements, have been identified which were integrated in a partner selection model.

Keywords: horizontal cooperation, logistics cooperation partnering criteria, partner selection

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Authors: Gionata Carmignani, Mario G. C. A. Cimino, Franco Failli

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Business Processes (BPs) are the key instrument to understand how companies operate at an organizational level, taking an as-is view of the workflow, and how to address their issues by identifying a to-be model. In last year’s, the BP Model and Notation (BPMN) has become a de-facto standard for modeling processes. However, this standard does not incorporate explicitly the Problem-Solving (PS) knowledge in the Process Modeling (PM) results. Thus, such knowledge cannot be shared or reused. To narrow this gap is today a challenging research area. In this paper we present a framework able to capture the PS knowledge and to improve a workflow. This framework extends the BPMN specification by incorporating new general-purpose elements. A pilot scenario is also presented and discussed.

Keywords: business process management, BPMN, problem solving, process mapping

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Authors: Luciano Garelli, Marco Schauer, Jorge D’Elia, Mario A. Storti, Sabine C. Langer

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This paper discuss a coupling strategy of two different software packages to provide fluid structure interaction (FSI) analysis. The basic idea is to combine the advantages of the two codes to create a powerful FSI solver for two and three dimensional analysis. The fluid part is computed by a program called PETSc-FEM, a software developed at Centro de Investigación de Métodos Computacionales (CIMEC). The structural part of the coupled process is computed by the research code elementary Parallel Solver (elPaSo) of the Technische Universität Braunschweig, Institut für Konstruktionstechnik (IK).

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics (CFD), fluid structure interaction (FSI), finite element method (FEM), software

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Authors: Guido Trautmann-Sáez, Mario Pérez-Won, Vilbett Briones, María José Bugueño, Gipsy Tabilo-Munizaga, Luis Gonzáles-Cavieres

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Shrimp by-products are a valuable source of protein. However, traditional protein extraction methods have limitations in terms of their efficiency. Protein extraction from shrimp (Pleuroncodes monodon) industrial by-products assisted with ohmic heating (OH), microwave (MW) and pulsed electric field (PEF). It was performed by chemical method (using NaOH and HCl 2M) assisted with OH, MW and PEF in a continuous flow system (5 ml/s). Protein determination, differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) and Fourier-transform infrared (FTIR). Results indicate a 19.25% (PEF) 3.65% (OH) and 28.19% (MW) improvement in protein extraction efficiency. The most efficient method was selected for the electrospinning process and obtaining fiber.

Keywords: electrospinning process, emerging technology, protein extraction, shrimp by-products

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Authors: Juan P. Novoa, Mario A. Rios

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This paper presents a transmission planning methodology that considers the conversion of HVAC transmission lines to HVDC as an alternative of expansion of power systems, as a consequence of restrictions for the construction of new lines. The transmission expansion planning problem formulates an optimization problem that minimizes the total cost that includes the investment cost to convert lines from HVAC to HVDC and possible required reinforcements of the power system prior to the conversion. The costs analysis assesses the impact of the conversion on the reliability because transmission lines are out of service during the conversion work. The presented methodology is applied to a test system considering a planning a horizon of 10 years.

Keywords: transmission expansion planning, HVDC, cost optimization, energy non-supplied

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Authors: Eva L. Sanjuán, Jacinto Martín, M. Isabel Parra, Mario M. Pizarro

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In Extreme Value Theory, inference estimation for the parameters of the distribution is made employing a small part of the observation values. When block maxima values are taken, many data are discarded. We developed a new Bayesian inference model to seize all the information provided by the data, introducing informative priors and using the relations between baseline and limit parameters. Firstly, we studied the accuracy of the new model for three baseline distributions that lead to a Gumbel extreme distribution: Exponential, Normal and Gumbel. Secondly, we considered mixtures of Normal variables, to simulate practical situations when data do not adjust to pure distributions, because of perturbations (noise).

Keywords: bayesian inference, extreme value theory, Gumbel distribution, highly informative prior

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