Search results for: March-May 2013 rainfall season

Authors: Samuel Abraham Berhane, Lingbing Bu

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This paper presents the spatiotemporal variability of aerosols, clouds, and precipitation within the major cities in Eritrea and it investigates the relationship between aerosols, clouds, and precipitation concerning the presence of aerosols over the study region. In Eritrea, inadequate water supplies will have both direct and indirect adverse impacts on sustainable development in areas such as health, agriculture, energy, communication, and transport. Besides, there exists a gap in the knowledge on suitable and potential areas for cloud seeding. Further, the inadequate understanding of aerosol-cloud-precipitation (ACP) interactions limits the success of weather modification aimed at improving freshwater sources, storage, and recycling. Spatiotemporal variability of aerosols, clouds, and precipitation involve spatial and time series analysis based on trend and anomaly analysis. To find the relationship between aerosols and clouds, a correlation coefficient is used. The spatiotemporal analysis showed larger variations of aerosols within the last two decades, especially in Assab, indicating that aerosol optical depth (AOD) has increased over the surrounding Red Sea region. Rainfall was significantly low but AOD was significantly high during the 2011 monsoon season. Precipitation was high during 2007 over most parts of Eritrea. The correlation coefficient between AOD and rainfall was negative over Asmara and Nakfa. Cloud effective radius (CER) and cloud optical thickness (COT) exhibited a negative correlation with AOD over Nakfa within the June–July–August (JJA) season. The hybrid single-particle Lagrangian integrated trajectory (HYSPLIT) model that is used to find the path and origin of the air mass of the study region showed that the majority of aerosols made their way to the study region via the westerly and the southwesterly winds.

Keywords: aerosol-cloud-precipitation, aerosol optical depth, cloud effective radius, cloud optical thickness, HYSPLIT

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Authors: Thanh Van Hoang, Tien Yin Chou, Yao Min Fang, Yi Min Huang, Xuan Linh Nguyen

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Reliable information on the spatial distribution of annual rainfall and temperature is essential in research projects relating to urban and regional planning. This research presents results of a classification of temperature and rainfall in the Red River Delta of northern Vietnam based on measurements from seven meteorological stations (Ha Nam, Hung Yen, Lang, Nam Dinh, Ninh Binh, Phu Lien, Thai Binh) in the river basin over a thirty-years period from 1982-2011. The average accumulated rainfall trends in the delta are analysed and form the basis of research essential to weather and climate forecasting. This study employs interpolation based on the Kriging Method for daily rainfall (min and max) and daily temperature (min and max) in order to improve the understanding of sources of variation and uncertainly in these important meteorological parameters. To the Kriging method, the results will show the different models and the different parameters based on the various precipitation series. The results provide a useful reference to assist decision makers in developing smart agriculture strategies for the Red River Delta in Vietnam.

Keywords: spatial interpolation method, ArcGIS, temperature variability, rainfall variability, Red River Delta, Vietnam

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Authors: Daniel Osieko Okach, Joseph Otieno Ondier, Gerhard Rambold, John Tenhunen, Bernd Huwe, Dennis Otieno

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Increased human activities such as grazing, logging, and agriculture alongside unpredictable rainfall patterns have been detrimental to the ecosystem service delivery, therefore compromising its productivity potential. This study aimed at simulating the impact of drought (50%) and enhanced rainfall (150%) on the future herbaceous CO2 uptake, biomass production and soil C:N dynamics in a humid savanna ecosystem influenced by livestock grazing. Rainfall pattern was predicted using manipulation experiments set up to reduce (50%) and increase (150%) ambient (100%) rainfall amounts in grazed and non-grazed plots. The impact of manipulated rainfall regime on herbaceous CO2 fluxes, biomass production and soil C:N dynamics was measured against volumetric soil water content (VWC) logged every 30 minutes using the 5TE (Decagon Devices Inc., Washington, USA) soil moisture sensors installed (at 20 cm soil depth) in every plots. Herbaceous biomass was estimated using destructive method augmented by standardized photographic imaging. CO2 fluxes were measured using the ecosystem chamber method and the gas analysed using LI-820 gas analyzer (USA). C:N ratio was calculated from the soil carbon and Nitrogen contents (analyzed using EA2400CHNS/O and EA2410 N elemental analyzers respectively) of different plots under study. The patterning of VWC was directly influenced by the rainfall amount with lower VWC observed in the grazed compared to the non-grazed plots. Rainfall variability, grazing and their interaction significantly affected changes in VWC (p < 0.05) and subsequently total biomass and CO2 fluxes. VWC had a strong influence on CO2 fluxes under 50% rainfall reduction in the grazed (r2 = 0.91; p < 0.05) and ambient rainfall in the ungrazed (r2 = 0.77; p < 0.05). The dependence of biomass on VWC across plots was enhanced under grazed (r2 = 0.78 - 0.87; p < 0.05) condition as compared to ungrazed (r2 = 0.44 - 0.85; p < 0.05). The C:N ratio was however not correlated to VWC across plots. This study provides insight on how the predicted trends in humid savanna will respond to changes influenced by rainfall variability and livestock grazing and consequently the sustainable management of such ecosystems.

Keywords: CO2 fluxes, rainfall manipulation, soil properties, sustainability

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Authors: Lubaina Soni, Claire Farrell, Christopher Szota, Tim D. Fletcher

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Green roofs are a promising engineered ecosystem for reducing stormwater runoff and restoring vegetation cover in cities. Plants can contribute to rainfall retention by rapidly depleting water in the substrate; however, this increases the risk of plant drought stress. Green roof configurations, therefore, need to provide plants the opportunity to efficiently deplete the substrate but also avoid severe drought stress. This study used green roof modules placed in a rainout shelter during a six-month rainfall regime simulated in Melbourne, Australia. Rainfall was applied equally with an overhead irrigation system on each module. Aside from rainfall, modules were under natural climatic conditions, including temperature, wind, and radiation. A single species, Ficinia nodosa, was planted with five different treatments and three replicates of each treatment. In this experiment, we tested the impact of three plant cover treatments (0%, 50% and 100%) on rainfall retention and plant drought stress. We also installed two runoff zone treatments covering 50% of the substrate surface for additional modules with 0% and 50% plant cover to determine whether directing rainfall resources towards plant roots would reduce drought stress without impacting rainfall retention. The retention performance for the simulated rainfall events was measured, quantifying all components for hydrological performance and survival on green roofs. We found that evapotranspiration and rainfall retention were similar for modules with 50% and 100% plant cover. However, modules with 100% plant cover showed significantly higher plant drought stress. Therefore, planting at a lower cover/density reduced plant drought stress without jeopardizing rainfall retention performance. Installing runoff zones marginally reduced evapotranspiration and rainfall retention, but by approximately the same amount for modules with 0% and 50% plant cover. This indicates that reduced evaporation due to the installation of the runoff zones likely contributed to reduced evapotranspiration and rainfall retention. Further, runoff occurred from modules with runoff zones faster than those without, indicating that we created a faster pathway for water to enter and leave the substrate, which also likely contributed to lower overall evapotranspiration and retention. However, despite some loss in retention performance, modules with 50% plant cover installed with runoff zones showed significantly lower drought stress in plants compared to those without runoff zones. Overall, we suggest that reducing plant cover represents a simple means of optimizing green roof performance but creating runoff zones may reduce plant drought stress at the cost of reduced rainfall retention.

Keywords: green roof, plant cover, plant drought stress, rainfall retention

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Authors: Ardak Myrzabekova

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Sentinel epidemiological surveillance (SES) of severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) was introduced in the Republic of Kazakhstan in 2008. The purpose of this study was to analyze SES of flu among SARI patients in the Republic of Kazakhstan during last two flu seasons. Comparative analysis was conducted of SARI morbidity during 40 – 23 weeks of 2014/2015 (season 2014) and 2015/2016 (season 2015) in online base (http:\\ses.dec.kz). In the database during season 2014 were 1,398 SARI patients and 1,985 patients during season 2015. Individual data (clinical, epidemiological and laboratory) of SARI cases were collected based on the questionnaire and were put into the flu electronic system. The studied population was residents of the Republic of Kazakhstan who addressed for medical help in 24 sentinel in-patient clinics in 9 sentinel regions of the country. Swabs from nose and throat were taken for laboratory testing from SARI patients who met the standard case definition. The samples were examined in virology labs of sentinel regions using PCR and 'AmpliSens' test systems made in Russia. The first positive results for flu during season 2014 were obtained on 48 week, during season 2015 – on 46 week. The increase of the number of hospitalized SARI patients was observed during 42 week of 2015 – 01 week of 2016, and during 03 - 06 weeks of 2016, with fluctuating SARI incidence rate from 171 to 444 per 1,000 hospitalized. The highest SARI incidence rate during season 2014 were observed during 01 - 03 weeks of 2015: from 389 to 466 per 1,000 hospitalized. Patients admitted to the ICU during season 2015 were 3.0% (60) SARI patients, compared to 2.7% (38) in 2014 (p=0.3), obtaining oxygen therapy 1.0% (21) compared to 0.3% (5), accordingly, (р=0.009); with shortness of breath 74.8% (1,486) compared to 72.6% (1,015), (р=0.07); with impairment of consciousness 1.0% (21) compared to 0.6% (9), (р=0.11); with muscle pain 19.3% (384) compared to 13.6% (191), (р < 0.001); with joint pain 13.3% (265) compared to 9.3% (131), (p < 0.001). During season 2015 the prevailing subtype of flu А was А/Н1N1-09, it was observed mainly in the age group 30-64: 32.5% (169/520). During season 2014 flu А/Н3N2 was observed mainly in the age group 15-29: 43.6% (106/243). Among children under 14 flu А/Н1N1-09 during season 2015 was 37.3% (194/520), during season 2014 flu А/Н3N2 – 34.9% (85/243). Earlier beginning of the flu season was noted in 2015-2016 and a longer period of hospitalization of SARI patients, with high SARI morbidity rates, unlike season 2014-2015. Season 2015-2016 was characterized by prevailing circulation of virus of flu А/Н1N1-09, mainly in the age group 30-64, and also among children under 14. During season 2014-2015 the virus circulating in the country was А/Н3N2, which was observed mainly in the age group 15-29 and among children under 14.

Keywords: flu, electronic system, sentinel epidemiological surveillance, severe acute respiratory infections

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Authors: Mariam Tsitsagi, Ana Berdzenishvili

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Rainfall intensity change is one of the main indicators of climate change. It has a great influence on agriculture as one of the main factors causing soil erosion. Splash and sheet erosion are one of the most prevalence and harmful for agriculture. It is invisible for an eye at first stage, but the process will gradually move to stream cutting erosion. Our study provides the assessment of rainfall erosivity potential with the use of modern research methods in Kakheti region. The region is the major provider of wheat and wine in the country. Kakheti is located in the eastern part of Georgia and characterized quite a variety of natural conditions. The climate is dry subtropical. For assessment of the exact rate of rainfall erosion potential several year data of rainfall with short intervals are needed. Unfortunately, from 250 active metro stations running during the Soviet period only 55 of them are active now and 5 stations in Kakheti region respectively. Since 1936 we had data on rainfall intensity in this region, and rainfall erosive potential is assessed, in some old papers, but since 1990 we have no data about this factor, which in turn is a necessary parameter for determining the rainfall erosivity potential. On the other hand, researchers and local communities suppose that rainfall intensity has been changing and the number of haily days has also been increasing. However, finding a method that will allow us to determine rainfall erosivity potential as accurate as possible in Kakheti region is very important. The study period was divided into three sections: 1936-1963; 1963-1990 and 1990-2015. Rainfall erosivity potential was determined by the scientific literature and old meteorological stations’ data for the first two periods. And it is known that in eastern Georgia, at the boundary between steppe and forest zones, rainfall erosivity in 1963-1990 was 20-75% higher than that in 1936-1963. As for the third period (1990-2015), for which we do not have data of rainfall intensity. There are a variety of studies, where alternative ways of calculating the rainfall erosivity potential based on lack of data are discussed e.g.based on daily rainfall data, average annual rainfall data and the elevation of the area, etc. It should be noted that these methods give us a totally different results in case of different climatic conditions and sometimes huge errors in some cases. Three of the most common methods were selected for our research. Each of them was tested for the first two sections of the study period. According to the outcomes more suitable method for regional climatic conditions was selected, and after that, we determined rainfall erosivity potential for the third section of our study period with use of the most successful method. Outcome data like attribute tables and graphs was specially linked to the database of Kakheti, and appropriate thematic maps were created. The results allowed us to analyze the rainfall erosivity potential changes from 1936 to the present and make the future prospect. We have successfully implemented a method which can also be use for some another region of Georgia.

Keywords: erosivity potential, Georgia, GIS, Kakheti, rainfall

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Authors: Fitih Ademe, Kibebew Kibret, Sheleme Beyene, Mezgebu Getnet, Gashaw Meteke

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Soil moisture and nutrient availability are the two key edaphic factors that affect crop yields and are directly or indirectly affected by climate variability and change. The study examined climate-induced yield level, yield variability and gap of maize during 1981-2010 main growing season in the Central Rift Valley (CRV) of Ethiopia. Pearson correlation test was employed to see the relationship between climate variables and yield. The coefficient of variation (CV) was used to analyze annual yield variability. Decision Support System for Agro-technology Transfer cropping system model (DSSAT-CSM) was used to simulate the growth and yield of maize for the study period. The result indicated that maize grain yield was strongly (P<0.01) and positively correlated with seasonal rainfall (r=0.67 at Melkassa and r = 0.69 at Ziway) in the CRV while day temperature affected grain yield negatively (r= -0.44) at Ziway (P<0.05) during the simulation period. Variations in total seasonal rainfall at Melkassa and Ziway explained 44.9 and 48.5% of the variation in yield, respectively, under optimum nutrition. Following variation in rainfall, high yield variability (CV=23.5%, Melkassa and CV=25.3%, Ziway) was observed for optimum nutrient simulation than the corresponding nutrient limited simulation (CV=16%, Melkassa and 24.1%, Ziway) in the study period. The observed farmers’ yield was 72, 52 and 43% of the researcher-managed, water-limited and potential yield of the crop, respectively, indicating a wide maize yield gap in the region. The study revealed rainfed crop production in the CRV is prone to yield variabilities due to its high dependence on seasonal rainfall and nutrient level. Moreover, the high coefficient of variation in the yield gap for the 30-year period also foretells the need for dependable water supply at both locations. Given the wide yield gap especially during lower rainfall years across the simulation periods, it signifies the requirement for a more dependable application of irrigation water and a potential shift to irrigated agriculture; hence, adopting options that can improve water availability and nutrient use efficiency would be crucial for crop production in the area.

Keywords: climate variability, crop model, water availability, yield gap, yield variability

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Authors: Taslima Zahan

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A field study was done in 2013-14 and 2014-15 by following bio-assay technique to determine the carryover effect of herbicides applied in rainy season rice on growth and yield of two probable succeeding crops of rice viz., wheat and lentil. Rice seedlings were transplanted on strip-tilled non-puddled field, and five herbicides named pyrazosufuron-ethyl, butachlor, orthosulfamuron, butachlor + propanil and 2,4-D amine were applied in rice at their recommended rate and time as eight treatment combinations and compared with one untreated control. Residual effects of those rice herbicides on the succeeding wheat and lentil were examined by following micro-plot bioassay technique. The study revealed that germination of wheat and lentil seeds were not affected by the residue of herbicides applied in the preceding rainy season rice. Shoot length of wheat and lentil seedlings of herbicide treated plots were also non-significantly varied with untreated control plots. Herbicide treated plots of wheat had higher leaf chlorophyll contents over the control plots by 1.8-14.0% on an average while in case of lentil herbicide treated plots had negligible amount of reduction in leaf chlorophyll contents than control plots. Grain yields of wheat and lentil in herbicide treated plots were higher than control plots by 2.8-6.6% and 0.2-10.9%, respectively. Therefore, two-year bioassay study claimed that tested herbicides applied in rainy season rice under strip-tilled non-puddled field had no adverse residual effect on growth and yield of the succeeding wheat and lentil.

Keywords: crop sensitivity, herbicide persistence, minimum tillage rice, yield improvement

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Authors: Zviad Ghadua, Biswa Bhattacharya

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The Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) provides the rainfall amount of a given duration necessary to cause flooding. The approach is based on the development of rainfall-runoff curves, which helps us to find out the rainfall amount that would cause flooding. An alternative approach, mostly experimented with Italian Alpine catchments, is based on determining threshold discharges from past events and on finding whether or not an oncoming flood has its magnitude more than some critical discharge thresholds found beforehand. Both approaches suffer from large uncertainties in forecasting flash floods as, due to the simplistic approach followed, the same rainfall amount may or may not cause flooding. This uncertainty leads to the question whether a probabilistic model is preferable over a deterministic one in forecasting flash floods. We propose the use of a Bayesian probabilistic approach in flash flood forecasting. A prior probability of flooding is derived based on historical data. Additional information, such as antecedent moisture condition (AMC) and rainfall amount over any rainfall thresholds are used in computing the likelihood of observing these conditions given a flash flood has occurred. Finally, the posterior probability of flooding is computed using the prior probability and the likelihood. The variation of the computed posterior probability with rainfall amount and AMC presents the suitability of the approach in decision making in an uncertain environment. The methodology has been applied to the Posina basin in Italy. From the promising results obtained, we can conclude that the Bayesian approach in flash flood forecasting provides more realistic forecasting over the FFG.

Keywords: flash flood, Bayesian, flash flood guidance, FFG, forecasting, Posina

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Authors: Ali M. Subyani

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The increase in the greenhouse gas emission has had a severe impact on global climate change and is bound to affect the weather patterns worldwide. This climate change impacts are among the future significant effects on any society. Rainfall levels are drastically increasing with flash floods in some places and long periods of droughts in others, especially in arid regions. These extreme events are causes of interactions concerning environmental, socio-economic and cultural life and their implementation. This paper presents the detailed features of dry and wet spell durations and rainfall intensity series available (1971-2012) on daily basis for the Jeddah area, Western, Saudi Arabia. It also presents significant articles for combating the climate change impacts on this area. Results show trend changes in dry and wet spell durations and rainfall amount on daily, monthly and annual time series. Three rain seasons were proposed in this investigation: high rain, low rain, and dry seasons. It shows that the overall average dry spell durations is about 80 continuous days while the average wet spell durations is 1.39 days with an average rainfall intensity of 8.2 mm/day. Annual and seasonal autorun analyses confirm that the rainy seasons are tending to have more intense rainfall while the seasons are becoming drier. This study would help decision makers in future for water resources management and flood risk analysis.

Keywords: climate change, daily rainfall, dry and wet spill, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia

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Authors: Mohammad Bakhshi, Firas Al Janabi

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High resolution rain data are very important to fulfill the input of hydrological models. Among models of high-resolution rainfall data generation, the temporal disaggregation was chosen for this study. The paper attempts to generate three different rainfall resolutions (4-hourly, hourly and 10-minutes) from daily for around 20-year record period. The process was done by DiMoN tool which is based on random cascade model and method of fragment. Differences between observed and simulated rain dataset are evaluated with variety of statistical and empirical methods: Kolmogorov-Smirnov test (K-S), usual statistics, and Exceedance probability. The tool worked well at preserving the daily rainfall values in wet days, however, the generated data are cumulated in a shorter time period and made stronger storms. It is demonstrated that the difference between generated and observed cumulative distribution function curve of 4-hourly datasets is passed the K-S test criteria while in hourly and 10-minutes datasets the P-value should be employed to prove that their differences were reasonable. The results are encouraging considering the overestimation of generated high-resolution rainfall data.

Keywords: DiMoN Tool, disaggregation, exceedance probability, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, rainfall

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Authors: Ningombam Linthoingambi Devi, Amrendra Kumar

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The long term sampling at one of the most populated city in Indo-Gangetic region shows higher mass concentration of atmospheric aerosol (PM₂.₅) during spring season (144.70µg/m³), summer season (91.96 µg/m³), the autumn season (266.48µg/m³) and winter season (367.09 µg/m³) respectively. The concentration of PM₂.₅ in Patna across the year shows much higher than the limit fixed by the national ambient air quality level fixed by central pollution control board India (CPCB, India) and World Health Organization (WHO). Different water-soluble cation (Na⁺, K⁺, Ca²⁺, NH₄⁺ , and Mg²⁺) and anion (Cl⁻, NO₃⁻ , and SO₄²⁻) species were detected in PM₂.₅. Results show the significantly higher loaded of water-soluble ions during winter and spring seasons. The acidity of the atmosphere was revealed and calculated using selected major cations (K⁺, Ca²⁺ , and NH₄⁺) and anions (SO₄²⁻, and NO₃⁻). A regression correlation was analyzed to check the significant linkage between the acidity and alkalinity ions. During the winter season (r² = 0.79) and spring season (r² = 0.64) shows good significant correlation between the cations and anions. The ratio of NO₃⁻/SO₄²⁻ indicates the sources of secondary pollutants were mainly influenced by industrial and vehicular emission however SO₄²⁻ mostly emitted from industries during the winter season.

Keywords: aerosols, inorganic species, source apportionment, Indo-Gangetic region

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Authors: Tasir Khan, Yejuan Wang

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The study of extreme rainfall events is very important for flood management in river basins and the design of water conservancy infrastructure. Evaluation of quantiles of annual maximum rainfall (AMRF) is required in different environmental fields, agriculture operations, renewable energy sources, climatology, and the design of different structures. Therefore, the annual maximum rainfall (AMRF) was performed at different stations in Pakistan. Multiple probability distributions, log normal (LN), generalized extreme value (GEV), Gumbel (max), and Pearson type3 (P3) were used to find out the most appropriate distributions in different stations. The L moments method was used to evaluate the distribution parameters. Anderson darling test, Kolmogorov- Smirnov test, and chi-square test showed that two distributions, namely GUM (max) and LN, were the best appropriate distributions. The quantile estimate of a multi-parameter PD offers extreme rainfall through a specific location and is therefore important for decision-makers and planners who design and construct different structures. This result provides an indication of these multi-parameter distribution consequences for the study of sites and peak flow prediction and the design of hydrological maps. Therefore, this discovery can support hydraulic structure and flood management.

Keywords: RAMSE, multiple frequency analysis, annual maximum rainfall, L-moments

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Authors: Guilherme Henrique Gabriel, Lucí Hidalgo Nunes

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An important feature of rainfall regimes is the variability, which is subject to the atmosphere’s general and regional dynamics, geographical position and relief. Despite being inherent to the climate system, it can harshly impact virtually all human activities. In turn, global climate change has the ability to significantly affect smaller-scale rainfall regimes by altering their current variability patterns. In this regard, it is useful to know if regional climates are changing over time and whether it is possible to link these variations to climate change trends observed globally. This study is part of an international project (Metropole-FAPESP, Proc. 2012/51876-0 and Proc. 2015/11035-5) and the objective was to identify and evaluate possible changes in rainfall behavior in the state of São Paulo, southeastern Brazil, using rainfall data from 79 rain gauges for the last forty years. Cluster analysis and gamma distribution parameters were used for evaluating spatial and temporal trends, and the outcomes are presented by means of geographic information systems tools. Results show remarkable changes in rainfall distribution patterns in São Paulo over the years: changes in shape and scale parameters of gamma distribution indicate both an increase in the irregularity of rainfall distribution and the probability of occurrence of extreme events. Additionally, the spatial outcome of cluster analysis along with the gamma distribution parameters suggest that changes occurred simultaneously over the whole area, indicating that they could be related to remote causes beyond the local and regional ones, especially in a current global climate change scenario.

Keywords: climate change, cluster analysis, gamma distribution, rainfall

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Authors: M. T. Islam, S. H. Shakif, R. Hasan, S. H. Kobi

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Investigation of rainfall trends is crucial considering climate change, food security, and the economy of a particular region. This research aims to study seasonal and annual precipitation trends and their abrupt changes over time in the south-central climatic zone of Bangladesh using monthly time series data of 50 years (1970-2019). A trend-free pre-whitening method has been employed to make necessary adjustments for autocorrelations in the rainfall data. Trends in rainfall and their intensity have been observed using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and Theil-Sen estimator. Significant changes and fluctuation points in the data series have been detected using the sequential Mann-Kendall test at the 95% confidence limit. The study findings show that most of the rainfall stations in the study area have a decreasing precipitation pattern throughout all seasons. The maximum decline in the rainfall intensity has been found for the Tangail station (-8.24 mm/year) during monsoon. Madaripur and Chandpur stations have shown slight positive trends in post-monsoon rainfall. In terms of annual precipitation, a negative rainfall pattern has been identified in each station, with a maximum decrement (-) of 14.48 mm/year at Chandpur. However, all the trends are statistically non-significant within the 95% confidence interval, and their monotonic association with time ranges from very weak to weak. From the sequential Mann-Kendall test, the year of changing points for annual and seasonal downward precipitation trends occur mostly after the 90s for Dhaka and Barishal stations. For Chandpur, the fluctuation points arrive after the mid-70s in most cases.

Keywords: trend analysis, Mann-Kendall test, Theil-Sen estimator, sequential Mann-Kendall test, rainfall trend

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Authors: Rahila Yilangai, Sonali Saha, Amartya Saha, Augustine Ezealor

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Gallery forests in sub-Saharan Africa are drastically disappearing due to intensive anthropogenic activities thus reducing ecosystem services, one of which is water provisioning. The role played by forest cover in regulating streamflow and water yield is not well understood, especially in West Africa. This pioneering 2-year study investigated the interrelationships between plant cover and hydrology in protected and unprotected gallery forests. Rainfall, streamflow, and evapotranspiration (ET) measurements/estimates over 2015-2016 were obtained to form a water balance for both catchments. In addition, transpiration in the protected gallery forest with high vegetation cover was calculated from stomatal conductance readings of selected species chosen from plot level data of plant diversity and abundance. Results showed that annual streamflow was significantly higher in the unprotected site than the protected site, even when normalized by catchment area. However, streamflow commenced earlier and lasted longer in the protected site than the degraded unprotected site, suggesting regulation by the greater tree density in the protected site. Streamflow correlated strongly with rainfall with the highest peak in August. As expected, transpiration measurements were less than potential evapotranspiration estimates, while rainfall exceeded ET in the water cycle. The water balance partitioning suggests that the lower vegetation cover in the unprotected catchment leads to a larger runoff in the rainy season and less infiltration, thereby leading to streams drying up earlier, than in the protected catchment. This baseline information is important in understanding the contribution of plants in water cycle regulation, for modeling integrative water management in applied research and natural resource management in sustaining water resources with changing the land cover and climate uncertainties in this data-poor region.

Keywords: evapotranspiration, gallery forest, rainfall, streamflow, transpiration

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Authors: Renato Morbidelli, Carla Saltalippi, Alessia Flammini, Tommaso Picciafuoco, Corrado Corradini

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A considerable part of rainfall data to be used in the hydrological practice is available in aggregated form within constant time intervals. This can produce undesirable effects, like the underestimate of the annual maximum rainfall depth, Hd, associated with a given duration, d, that is the basic quantity in the development of rainfall depth-duration-frequency relationships and in determining if climate change is producing effects on extreme event intensities and frequencies. The errors in the evaluation of Hd from data characterized by a coarse temporal aggregation, ta, and a procedure to reduce the non-homogeneity of the Hd series are here investigated. Our results indicate that: 1) in the worst conditions, for d=ta, the estimation of a single Hd value can be affected by an underestimation error up to 50%, while the average underestimation error for a series with at least 15-20 Hd values, is less than or equal to 16.7%; 2) the underestimation error values follow an exponential probability density function; 3) each very long time series of Hd contains many underestimated values; 4) relationships between the non-dimensional ratio ta/d and the average underestimate of Hd, derived from continuous rainfall data observed in many stations of Central Italy, may overcome this issue; 5) these equations should allow to improve the Hd estimates and the associated depth-duration-frequency curves at least in areas with similar climatic conditions.

Keywords: central Italy, extreme events, rainfall data, underestimation errors

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Authors: L. Mouzai, M. Bouhadef

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Raindrops and overland flow both are erosive parameters but they do not act by the same way. The overland flow alone tends to shear the soil horizontally and concentrates into rills. In the presence of rain, the soil particles are removed from the soil surface in the form of a uniform sheet layer. In addition to this, raindrops falling on the flow roughen the water and soil surface depending on the flow depth, and retard the velocity, therefore influence shear velocity and Manning’s factor. To investigate this part, agricultural sandy soil, rainfall simulator and a laboratory soil tray of 0.2x1x3 m were the base of this work. Five overland flow depths of 0; 3.28; 4.28; 5.16; 5.60; 5.80 mm were generated under a rainfall intensity of 217.2 mm/h. Sediment concentration control is based on the proportionality of depth/microtopography. The soil loose is directly related to the presence of rain splash on thin sheet flow. The effect of shear velocity on sediment concentration is limited by the value of 5.28 cm/s. In addition to this, the rain splash reduces the soil roughness by breaking the soil crests. The rainfall intensity is the major factor influencing depth and soil erosion. In the presence of rainfall, the shear velocity of the flow is due to two simultaneous effects. The first, which is horizontal, comes from the flow and the second, vertical, is due to the raindrops.

Keywords: flow resistance, laboratory experiments, rainfall simulator, sediment concentration, shear velocity, soil erosion

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Authors: Manqhai Kraai, Adrian M. Shrader, Peter F. Scogings

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For animals living in herds, competition between group members increases as herd size increases. The intensity of this competition is likely greater across poor quality landscapes and during the dry season. In contrast to wild herbivores, herd size in domestic livestock is determined by their owners. This then raises the question, how do domestic livestock, like goats, reduce competition for food within these defined herds? To explore this question, large-scale foraging behaviour of both small (12 to 28 individuals) and large (42 to 83 individuals) herds of free-ranging goats were recorded in Tugela Ferry, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. The study was conducted on three different landscapes that varied in both food quality and availability, during the wet and dry seasons of 2013-2014. The goats were housed in kraals overnight and let out in the mornings to forage unattended. Thus, foraging decisions were made by the goats and not by herders. The large-scale foraging behaviours focussed on included, (i) total distance travelled by goats while foraging, (ii) distance travelled before starting to feed, (iii) travel speed, and (iv) feeding duration. This was done using Garmin Foretrex 401 GPS devices harnessed to two goats per herd. Irrespective of season, there was no difference in the total distance travelled by the different sized herds across the different quality landscapes. However, both small and large herds started feeding farther from the kraal in the dry compared to the wet season. Despite this, there was no significant seasonal difference in total amount of time the herds spent feeding across the different landscapes. Finally, both small and large herds increased their travel speed across all the landscapes in the dry season, but large herds travelled faster than small herds. This increase was likely to maximise the time that large herds could spend feeding in good areas. Ultimately, these results indicate that both small and large herds were affected by declines in food quality and quantity during the dry season. However, as large herds made greater behavioural adjustments compared to smaller herds (i.e., feeding farther away from the kraal and travelling faster), it appeared that they were more affected by the seasonal increases in intra-herd competition.

Keywords: distance, feeding duration, food availability, food quality, travel speed

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Authors: Ankita Pathak, Ashok Munjal, Ravi Parkash

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Plastic responses to multiple environmental stressors in wet or dry seasonal populations of tropical Drosophila species have received less attention. We tested plastic effects of heat hardening, acclimation to drought or starvation; and changes in trehalose, proline and body lipids in D. ananassae flies reared under wet or dry season specific conditions. Wet season flies revealed significant increase in heat knockdown, starvation resistance and body lipids after heat hardening. However, accumulation of proline was observed only after desiccation acclimation of dry season flies while wet season flies elicited no proline but trehalose only. Therefore, drought-induced proline can be a marker metabolite for dry season flies. Further, partial utilization of proline and trehalose under heat hardening reflects their possible thermoprotective effects. Heat hardening elicited cross-protection to starvation stress. Stressor-specific accumulation or utilization, as well as rates of metabolic change for each energy metabolite, were significantly higher in wet season flies than dry season flies. Energy metabolite changes due to inter-related stressors (heat vs. desiccation or starvation) resulted in possible maintenance of energetic homeostasis in wet or dry season flies. Thus, low or high humidity induced plastic changes in energy metabolites can provide cross-protection to seasonally varying climatic stressors.

Keywords: wet-dry seasons, plastic changes, stress related traits, energy metabolites, cross protection

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Authors: Nien-Ming Hong, Kuei-Fang Huang

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Climate change is an important issue in future, which seriously affects water resources for a long term planning and management. Flood assessment is highly related with climate and land use. Increasing rainfall and urbanization will induce the inundated area in future. For adapting the impacts of climate change, a land use planning is a good strategy for reducing flood damage. The study is to build a trade-off process with different land use types. The Ta-Liao watershed is the study area with three types of land uses that are build-up, farm and forest. The build-up area is concentrated in the downstream of the watershed. Different rainfall amounts are applied for assessing the land use in 1996, 2005 and 2013. The adapted strategies are based on retarding the development of urban and a trade-off process. When a land changes from farm area to built-up area in downstream, this study is to search for a farm area and change it to forest/grass area or building a retention area in the upstream. For assessing the effects of the strategy, the inundation area is simulated by the Flo-2D model with different rainfall conditions and land uses. The results show inundation maps of several cases with land use change planning. The results also show the trade-off strategies and retention areas can decrease the inundated area and divide the inundated area, which are better than retarding urban development. The land use change is usually non-reverse and the planning should be constructed before the climate change.

Keywords: climate change, land use change, flood risk assessment, land use planning

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Authors: Dimphna Ezikanyi, Gloria Sakwari

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Airborne pollen and fungal spores are major triggers of allergies, and their abundance and seasonality depend on plant responses to climatic and meteorological variables. A survey of seasonal prevalence of airborne pollen and fungal spores in Nsukka, Enugu, South- East Nigeria and relationship to climatic variables were carried out from Jan-June, 2017. The aim of the study was to access climate change and variability over time in the area and their accrued influence on modern pollen and spores rain. Decadal change in climate was accessed from variables collected from meteorological centre in the study area. Airborne samples were collected monthly using a modified Tauber-like pollen samplers raised 5 ft above ground level. Aerosamples collected were subjected to acetolysis. Dominant pollen recorded were those of Poaceae, Elaeis guinensis Jacq. and Casuarina equisetifolia L. Change in weather brought by onset of rainfall evoked sporulation and dispersal of diverse spores into ambient air especially potent allergenic spores with the spores of Ovularia, Bispora, Curvularia, Nigrospora, Helminthosporium preponderant; these 'hydrophilic fungi' were abundant in the rainy season though in varying quantities. Total fungal spores correlated positively with monthly rainfall and humidity but negatively with temperature. There was a negative though not significant correlation between total pollen count and rainfall. The study revealed a strong influence of climatic variables on abundance and spatial distribution of pollen and fungal spores in the ambient atmosphere.

Keywords: allergy, fungal spores, pollen, weather parameters

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Authors: Aklilu Zeleke

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A cross-sectional study was conducted in order to understand the effect of wet and dry seasons on the free residual chlorine and bacteriological contamination of the Addis Ababa (Ethiopia) water supply system. Water samples were taken at 30 selected distribution points and analyzed for Free Residual Chlorine and bacteriological analysis total coliforms and fecal coliform). It was found that some of the bacteriological data and Free Residual Chlorine levels are below the recommended values and beyond the maximum tolerable limits recommended by World Health Organization and Ethiopian National Standards. Water quality during the dry season is better than that of the wet season. There is a strong relationship between Free Residual Chlorine levels in drinking water and its bacteriological quality.

Keywords: addis ababa, wet season, dry season, free residual chlorine

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Authors: Ana C. V. Freitas, Luciana B. M. Pires, Joao P. Martins

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In recent years, fire dynamics in deforestation areas of tropical forests have received considerable attention because of their relationship to climate change. Climate models project great increases in the frequency and area of drought in the Amazon region, which may increase the occurrence of fires. This study analyzes the historical record number of fire outbreaks in 2017 using satellite-derived data sets of active fire detections, burned area, precipitation, and data of the Fire Program from the Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies (CPTEC/INPE). A downward trend in the number of fire outbreaks occurred in the first half of 2017, in relation to the previous year. This decrease can be related to the fact that 2017 was not an El Niño year and, therefore, the observed rainfall and temperature in the Amazon region was close to normal conditions. Meanwhile, the worst period in history for fire outbreaks began with the subsequent arrival of the dry season. September of 2017 exceeded all monthly records for number of fire outbreaks per month in the entire series. This increase was mainly concentrated in Bolivia and in the states of Amazonas, northeastern Pará, northern Rondônia and Acre, regions with high densities of rural settlements, which strongly suggests that human action is the predominant factor, aggravated by the lack of precipitation during the dry season allowing the fires to spread and reach larger areas. Thus, deforestation in the Amazon is primarily a human-driven process: climate trends may be providing additional influences.

Keywords: Amazon forest, climate change, deforestation, human-driven process, fire outbreaks

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Authors: Adam Musa Adam Eissa

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Environmental and weather changes especially rainfall affects the distribution and densities of mosquitoes. This work was carried out to study the distribution and densities of mosquitoes adults and larvae in a total of five selected stations in El Obied Town. A cross-sectional survey of Anopheline mosquito larval habitats was conducted. The survey was conducted during the dry season (January 2013). Larvae were collected by using the standard dipping technique, while adult stages were collected by rearing larvae in cage, because the density of adults Anopheles mosquito per room was zero by using spray sheet method by using Permethrin pesticide 25%E.C, during the study period. The results revealed that (2347) Anopheline mosquito larvae were found and collected from only one station. All of which (2347) larvae (100%) were classified as probably Anopheles Squamosus. The study also showed that, a number of 81 adults (100%) Anopheline mosquito were classified as probably Anopheles Squamosus. Anopheles Squamosus were found only in the shallow pond water habitat in Alrahma west area of El Obied, the mean Anopheline density in the study area for larvae was 0.313 per dip while the mean density of adult was 0 per room. The high mosquito larval density in Alrahma west area indicated that, this part of El Obied Town is at risk of mosquito-borne diseases including malaria. This study recommended to apply the control program against mosquito at this part of the Town.

Keywords: anopheles, squamosus, Alrahma, distribution

Procedia PDF Downloads 250

Authors: A. Dadda, D. Khelef, K. Ait-Oudia, R. Kaidi

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Neonatal calf diarrhea is the most important disease of neonatal calves and results in the greatest economic losses due to disease in this age group in both dairy and beef calves. The objectives of the present study were to estimate the morbidity and the mortality of neonatal diarrhea in dairy calves also to determine aetiology and risk factors were caused diarrhea in dairy veal under 60 days old. A total of 324 claves, housed in 30 dairy breeding were followed during two velage season from January to Juan 2013. The total mortality was 5,9% and was significantly higher in calves had less than 15 days of age. The incidence rate of diarrhea was 31,5% and peaked in the first two weeks after velage. The main causes were breeding controls, defect of passive immunity, old of calf, production season, and nutrient of pregnant cattle, veal’s housing and infectious agents. ELISA test on 22 fecal samples revealed that the 31, 82% of dairy breeding were infected, by cryptosporidium parvum in 13, 6% of study population, E.Coli F5 in 9% and Rotavirus with rate of 4, 5%.

Keywords: diarrhoea, neonatal, mortality, aetiology, risk factors, incidence

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Authors: Bumjo Kim, Hyun Jin Kim, Joon Ha Kim

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The separate sewer system is that collects the wastewater as a sewer pipe and rainfall as a stormwater pipe separately, and then sewage is treated in the wastewater treatment plant, the stormwater is discharged to rivers or lakes through stormwater drainage pipes. Unfortunately, even for separate sewer systems, it is not possible to prevent Rainfall Driven Inflow/Infiltration(RDII) completely to the sewer pipe. Even if the sewerage line is renovated, there is an ineluctable RDII due to the combined sewer system in the house or the difficulty of sewage maintenance in private areas. The basic statistical analysis was performed using environmental data including rainfall, sewage, water qualities and groundwater level in the strict of Gwangju in ​South Korea. During rainfall in the target area, RDII showed an increased rate of 13.4 ~ 53.0% compared to that of a clear day and showed a rapid hydrograph response of 0.3 ~ 3.0 hr. As a result of water quality analysis, BOD5 concentration decreased by 17.3 % and salinity concentration decreased by 8.8 % at the representative spot in the project area compared to the sunny day during rainfall. In contrast to the seasonal fluctuation range of 0.38 m ~ 0.55 m in groundwater in Gwangju area and 0.58 m ~ 0.78 m in monthly fluctuation range, while the difference between groundwater level and the depth of sewer pipe laying was 2.70 m on average, which is larger than the range of fluctuation. Comprehensively, it can be concluded that the increasing of flowrate at sewer line is due to not infiltration water caused by groundwater level rise, construction failure, cracking due to joint failure or conduit deterioration, rainfall was directly inflowed into the sewer line rapidly. Acknowledgements: This work was supported by the 'Climate Technology Development and Application' research project (#K07731) through a grant provided by GIST in 2017.

Keywords: ground water, rainfall, rainfall driven inflow/infiltration, separate sewer system

Procedia PDF Downloads 128

Authors: Ngoc-Hieu Vu

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Dairy production in Vietnam is a relatively new agricultural activity and milk production increased remarkably in recent years. Smallholders are still the main drivers for this development, especially in the southern part of the country. However, information on the farming practices is very limited. Therefore, this study aimed to determine factors influencing milk yield and quality (milk fat, total solids, solids-not-fat, total number of bacteria, and somatic cell count) and revenue of dairy farms in Southern Vietnam. The collection of data was at the farm level; individual animal records were unavailable. The 539 studied farms were located in the provinces Lam Dong (N=111 farms), Binh Duong (N=69 farms), Long An (N=174 farms), and Ho Chi Minh city (N=185 farms). The dataset included 9221 monthly test-day records of the farms from January 2013 to May 2015. Seasons were defined as rainy and dry. Farms sizes were classified as small (< 10 milking cows), medium (10 to 19 milking cows) and large (≥ 20 milking cows). The model for each trait contained year-season and farm region-farm size as subclass fixed effects, and individual farm and residual as random effects. Results showed that year-season, region, and farm size were determining sources of variation affecting all studied traits. Milk yield was higher in dry than in rainy seasons (P < 0.05), while it tended to increase from years 2013 to 2015. Large farms had higher yields (445.6 kg/cow) than small (396.7 kg/cow) and medium (428.0 kg/cow) farms (P < 0.05). Small farms, in contrast, were superior to large farms in terms of milk fat, total solids, solids-not-fat, total number of bacteria, and somatic cell count than large farms (P < 0.05). Revenue per cow was higher in large compared with medium and small farms. In conclusion, large farms achieved higher milk yields and revenues per cow, while small farms were superior in milk quality. Overall, milk yields were low and better training, financial support and marketing opportunities for farmers are needed to improve dairy production and increase farm revenues in Southern Vietnam.

Keywords: farm size, milk yield and quality, season, Southern Vietnam

Procedia PDF Downloads 333

Authors: Olubunmi S. Shittu, Olufemi J. Ayodele, Augustus O. A. Ilori, Abidemi O. Filani, Adetola T. Afuye

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Indiscriminate refuse dumping in and around Ado-Ekiti combined with improper management of few available dumpsites, such as Ilokun dumpsite, posed the threat of heavy metals pollution in the surrounding soils and underground water that needs assessment using pollution indices. Surface soils (0-15 cm) were taken from the centre of Ilokun dumpsite (0 m) and environs at different directions and distances during the dry and wet seasons, as well as a background sample at 1000 m away, adjacent to the dumpsite at Ilokun, Ado-Ekiti, Nigeria. The concentration of heavy metals used to calculate the pollution indices for the soils were determined using Atomic Adsorption Spectrophotometer. The soils recorded high concentrations of all the heavy metals above the background concentrations irrespective of the season with highest concentrations at the 0 m except Ni and Fe at 50 m during the dry and wet season, respectively. The heavy metals concentration were in the order of Ni > Mn > Pb > Cr > Cu > Cd > Fe during the dry season, and Fe > Cr > Cu > Pb > Ni > Cd > Mn during the wet season. Using the Contamination Factor (CF), the soils were classified to be moderately contaminated with Cd and Fe to very high contamination with other metals during the dry season and low Cd contamination (0.87), moderate contamination with Fe, Pb, Mn and Ni and very high contamination with Cr and Cu during the wet season. At both seasons, the Pollution Load Index (PLI) indicates the soils to be generally polluted with heavy metals and the Geoaccumulation Index (I_geo) calculated shown the soils to be in unpolluted to moderately polluted levels. Enrichment Factor (EF) implied the soils to be deficiently enriched with all the heavy metals except Cr (7.90) and Cu (6.42) that were at significantly enrichment levels during the wet season. Modified Degree of Contamination (mC_d) recorded, indicated the soils to be of very high to extremely high degree of contamination during the dry season and moderate degree of contamination during the wet season except 0 m with high degree of contamination. The concentration of heavy metals in the soils combined with some of the pollution indices indicated the soils in and around the Ilokun Dumpsite are being polluted with heavy metals from anthropogenic sources constituted by the indiscriminate refuse dumping.

Keywords: contamination factor, enrichment factor, geoaccumulation index, modified degree of contamination, pollution load index

Procedia PDF Downloads 346

Authors: Fateme Afkhami, Mohsen Ehsanpour, Majid Afkhami, Maryam Ehsanpour

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Normal reference ranges of biochemical parameters are considered important for assessing and monitoring the health status of sea turtles. For this means, serum biochemistry determinations were analyzed in normal adult nesting and foraging hawksbill turtles (Eretmochelys imbricata). Blood samples were collected in March–April during nesting season and December-November in the foraging season. Plasma biochemistry values, except for creatinine and lipase were significant between the two periods. FBS, cholesterol, triglycerides, ALP (alkaline phosphatase), AST (aspartate aminotransferase), bilirubin, total protein, LDH (lactate dehydrogenase), CK (creatine kinase) and amylase were significantly higher in nesting season than foraging season (P<0.05). On the other hand urea, ALT (alanine aminotransferase) and albumin in the nesting season were significantly lower than foraging season (P<0.05). It was concluded that the nesting E. imbricata showed significant variation in their biochemical profile due to reproductive output. This study has produced working reference intervals useful for hawksbill turtles for future conservation and rehabilitation projects in the Persian Gulf and may be of assistance in similar programs worldwide.

Keywords: plasma biochemistry, nesting, foraging, hawksbill turtles, Persian Gulf

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