Search results for: Grey prediction model

Authors: Yenni Kurniawati

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Students Prediction Skill in chemistry experiments is an important skill for pre-service chemistry students to stimulate students reflective thinking at each stage of many chemistry experiments, qualitatively and quantitatively. A Virtual Chemistry Laboratory was designed to give students opportunities and times to practicing many kinds of chemistry experiments repeatedly, everywhere and anytime, before they do a real experiment. The Virtual Chemistry Laboratory content was constructed using the Model of Educational Reconstruction and developed to enhance students ability to predicted the experiment results and analyzed the cause of error, calculating the accuracy and precision with carefully in using chemicals. This research showed students changing in making a decision and extremely beware with accuracy, but still had a low concern in precision. It enhancing students level of reflective thinking skill related to their prediction skill 1 until 2 stage in average. Most of them could predict the characteristics of the product in experiment, and even the result will going to be an error. In addition, they take experiments more seriously and curiously about the experiment results. This study recommends for a different subject matter to provide more opportunities for students to learn about other kinds of chemistry experiments design.

Keywords: virtual chemistry laboratory, chemistry experiments, prediction skill, pre-lab experiences

Procedia PDF Downloads 306

Authors: Arvinder Kaur, Deepti Chopra

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Software Entropy Metrics for bug prediction have been validated on various software systems by different researchers. In our previous research, we have validated that Software Entropy Metrics calculated for Mozilla subsystem’s predict the future bugs reasonably well. In this study, the Software Entropy metrics are calculated for a subsystem of Android and it is noticed that these metrics are not suitable for bug prediction. The results are compared with a subsystem of Mozilla and a comparison is made between the two software systems to determine the reasons why Software Entropy metrics are not applicable for Android.

Keywords: android, bug prediction, mining software repositories, software entropy

Procedia PDF Downloads 548

Authors: Chaiyaporn Yuksen

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Backgroud: Supraventricular tachycardia (SVT) is an abnormally fast atrial tachycardia characterized by narrow (≤ 120 ms) and constant QRS. Adenosine was the drug of choice; the first dose was 6 mg. It can be repeated with the second and third doses of 12 mg, with greater than 90% success. The study found that patients observed at 4 hours after normal sinus rhythm was no recurrence within 24 hours. The objective of this study was to investigate the factors that influence the recurrence of SVT after adenosine in the emergency department (ED). Method: The study was conducted retrospectively exploratory model, prognostic study at the Emergency Department (ED) in Faculty of Medicine, Ramathibodi Hospital, a university-affiliated super tertiary care hospital in Bangkok, Thailand. The study was conducted for ten years period between 2010 and 2020. The inclusion criteria were age > 15 years, visiting the ED with SVT, and treating with adenosine. Those patients were recorded with the recurrence SVT in ED. The multivariable logistic regression model developed the predictive model and prediction score for recurrence PSVT. Result: 264 patients met the study criteria. Of those, 24 patients (10%) had recurrence PSVT. Five independent factors were predictive of recurrence PSVT. There was age>65 years, heart rate (after adenosine) > 100 per min, structural heart disease, and dose of adenosine. The clinical risk score to predict recurrence PSVT is developed accuracy 74.41%. The score of >6 had the likelihood ratio of recurrence PSVT by 5.71 times Conclusion: The clinical predictive score of > 6 was associated with recurrence PSVT in ED.

Keywords: clinical prediction score, SVT, recurrence, emergency department

Procedia PDF Downloads 125

Authors: Aid Abdelkrim

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A method of fatigue damage accumulation based upon application of energy parameters of the fatigue process is proposed in the paper. Using this model is simple, it has no parameter to be determined, it requires only the knowledge of the curve W–N (W: strain energy density N: number of cycles at failure) determined from the experimental Wöhler curve. To examine the performance of nonlinear models proposed in the estimation of fatigue damage and fatigue life of components under random loading, a batch of specimens made of 6082 T 6 aluminium alloy has been studied and some of the results are reported in the present paper. The paper describes an algorithm and suggests a fatigue cumulative damage model, especially when random loading is considered. This work contains the results of uni-axial random load fatigue tests with different mean and amplitude values performed on 6082T6 aluminium alloy specimens. The proposed model has been formulated to take into account the damage evolution at different load levels and it allows the effect of the loading sequence to be included by means of a recurrence formula derived for multilevel loading, considering complex load sequences. It is concluded that a ‘damaged stress interaction damage rule’ proposed here allows a better fatigue damage prediction than the widely used Palmgren–Miner rule, and a formula derived in random fatigue could be used to predict the fatigue damage and fatigue lifetime very easily. The results obtained by the model are compared with the experimental results and those calculated by the most fatigue damage model used in fatigue (Miner’s model). The comparison shows that the proposed model, presents a good estimation of the experimental results. Moreover, the error is minimized in comparison to the Miner’s model.

Keywords: damage accumulation, energy model, damage indicator, variable loading, random loading

Procedia PDF Downloads 365

Authors: Chang Su Woo, Hyun Sung Park

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Useful lifetime evaluation of chevron rubber spring was very important in design procedure to assure the safety and reliability. It is, therefore, necessary to establish a suitable criterion for the replacement period of chevron rubber spring. In this study, we performed characteristic analysis and useful lifetime prediction of chevron rubber spring. Rubber material coefficient was obtained by curve fittings of uni-axial tension, equi bi-axial tension and pure shear test. Computer simulation was executed to predict and evaluate the load capacity and stiffness for chevron rubber spring. In order to useful lifetime prediction of rubber material, we carried out the compression set with heat aging test in an oven at the temperature ranging from 50°C to 100°C during a period 180 days. By using the Arrhenius plot, several useful lifetime prediction equations for rubber material was proposed.

Keywords: chevron rubber spring, material coefficient, finite element analysis, useful lifetime prediction

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Authors: Nishank Raisinghani

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Efficiently predicting drug response remains a challenge in the realm of drug discovery. To address this issue, we propose four model architectures that combine graphical representation with varying positions of multiheaded self-attention mechanisms. By leveraging two types of multi-omics data, transcriptomics and genomics, we create a comprehensive representation of target cells and enable drug response prediction in precision medicine. A majority of our architectures utilize multiple transformer models, one with a graph attention mechanism and the other with a multiheaded self-attention mechanism, to generate latent representations of both drug and omics data, respectively. Our model architectures apply an attention mechanism to both drug and multiomics data, with the goal of procuring more comprehensive latent representations. The latent representations are then concatenated and input into a fully connected network to predict the IC-50 score, a measure of cell drug response. We experiment with all four of these architectures and extract results from all of them. Our study greatly contributes to the future of drug discovery and precision medicine by looking to optimize the time and accuracy of drug response prediction.

Keywords: drug discovery, transformers, graph neural networks, multiomics

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Authors: Amira Abdelrasoul, Huu Doan, Ali Lohi

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An efficient and well-planned ultrafiltration process is becoming a necessity for monetary returns in the industrial settings. The aim of the present study was to develop a mathematical model for an accurate prediction of ultrafiltration membrane fouling of latex effluent applied to homogeneous and heterogeneous membranes with uniform and non-uniform pore sizes, respectively. The models were also developed for an accurate prediction of power consumption that can handle the large-scale purposes. The model incorporated the fouling attachments as well as chemical and physical factors in membrane fouling for accurate prediction and scale-up application. Both Polycarbonate and Polysulfone flat membranes, with pore sizes of 0.05 µm and a molecular weight cut-off of 60,000, respectively, were used under a constant feed flow rate and a cross-flow mode in ultrafiltration of the simulated paint effluent. Furthermore, hydrophilic ultrafilic and hydrophobic PVDF membranes with MWCO of 100,000 were used to test the reliability of the models. Monodisperse particles of 50 nm and 100 nm in diameter, and a latex effluent with a wide range of particle size distributions were utilized to validate the models. The aggregation and the sphericity of the particles indicated a significant effect on membrane fouling.

Keywords: membrane fouling, mathematical modeling, power consumption, attachments, ultrafiltration

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Authors: Grienggrai Rajchakit

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As we all know that coronavirus is announced as a pandemic in the world by WHO. It is speeded all over the world with few days of time. To control this spreading, every citizen maintains social distance and self-preventive measures are the best strategies. As of now, many researchers and scientists are continuing their research in finding out the exact vaccine. The machine learning model finds that the coronavirus disease behaves in an exponential manner. To abolish the consequence of this pandemic, an efficient step should be taken to analyze this disease. In this paper, a recurrent neural network model is chosen to predict the number of active cases in a particular state. To make this prediction of active cases, we need a database. The database of COVID-19 is downloaded from the KAGGLE website and is analyzed by applying a recurrent LSTM neural network with univariant features to predict the number of active cases of patients suffering from the corona virus. The downloaded database is divided into training and testing the chosen neural network model. The model is trained with the training data set and tested with a testing dataset to predict the number of active cases in a particular state; here, we have concentrated on Andhra Pradesh state.

Keywords: COVID-19, coronavirus, KAGGLE, LSTM neural network, machine learning

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Authors: Qiang Zhang, Chun Yuan

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Since the PU (Prediction Unit) decision process is the most time consuming part of the emerging HEVC (High Efficient Video Coding) standardin intra and inter frame coding, this paper proposes the fast PU decision algorithm and speed up the algorithm using CUDA (Compute Unified Device Architecture). In intra frame coding, the fast PU decision algorithm uses the texture features to skip intra-frame prediction or terminal the intra-frame prediction for smaller PU size. In inter frame coding of HEVC, the fast PU decision algorithm takes use of the similarity of its own two Nx2N size PU's motion vectors and the hierarchical structure of CU (Coding Unit) partition to skip some modes of PU partition, so as to reduce the motion estimation times. The accelerate algorithm using CUDA is based on the fast PU decision algorithm which uses the GPU to make the motion search and the gradient computation could be parallel computed. The proposed algorithm achieves up to 57% time saving compared to the HM 10.0 with little rate-distortion losses (0.043dB drop and 1.82% bitrate increase on average).

Keywords: HEVC, PU decision, inter prediction, intra prediction, CUDA, parallel

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Authors: K. Roushanger, A. Soleymanzadeh

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Weirs are structures often used in irrigation techniques, sewer networks and flood protection. However, the hydraulic behavior of this type of weir is complex and difficult to predict accurately. An accurate flow prediction over a weir mainly depends on the proper estimation of discharge coefficient. In this study, the Genetic Expression Programming (GEP) approach was used for predicting trapezoidal and rectangular sharp-crested side weirs discharge coefficient. Three different performance indexes are used as comparing criteria for the evaluation of the model’s performances. The obtained results approved capability of GEP in prediction of trapezoidal and rectangular side weirs discharge coefficient. The results also revealed the influence of downstream Froude number for trapezoidal weir and upstream Froude number for rectangular weir in prediction of the discharge coefficient for both of side weirs.

Keywords: discharge coefficient, genetic expression programming, trapezoidal weir

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Authors: Vahid Nourani, Atefeh Ashrafi

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Prediction of treated wastewater quality is a matter of growing importance in water treatment procedure. In this way artificial neural network (ANN), as a robust data-driven approach, has been widely used for forecasting the effluent quality of wastewater treatment. However, developing ANN model based on appropriate input variables is a major concern due to the numerous parameters which are collected from treatment process and the number of them are increasing in the light of electronic sensors development. Various studies have been conducted, using different clustering methods, in order to classify most related and effective input variables. This issue has been overlooked in the selecting dominant input variables among wastewater treatment parameters which could effectively lead to more accurate prediction of water quality. In the presented study two ANN models were developed with the aim of forecasting effluent quality of Tabriz city’s wastewater treatment plant. Biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) was utilized to determine water quality as a target parameter. Model A used Principal Component Analysis (PCA) for input selection as a linear variance-based clustering method. Model B used those variables identified by the mutual information (MI) measure. Therefore, the optimal ANN structure when the result of model B compared with model A showed up to 15% percent increment in Determination Coefficient (DC). Thus, this study highlights the advantage of PCA method in selecting dominant input variables for ANN modeling of wastewater plant efficiency performance.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks, biochemical oxygen demand, principal component analysis, mutual information, Tabriz wastewater treatment plant, wastewater treatment plant

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Authors: Theoktisti Makridou, Konstantinos Tsaprailis, George Arvanitakis, Charalampos Kontoes

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In the literature, the data-driven approaches for mosquito abundance prediction relaying on supervised machine learning models that get trained with historical in-situ measurements. The counterpart of this approach is once the model gets trained on pointlevel (specific x,y coordinates) measurements, the predictions of the model refer again to point-level. These point-level predictions reduce the applicability of those solutions once a lot of early warning and mitigation actions applications need predictions for an area level, such as a municipality, village, etc... In this study, we apply a data-driven predictive model, which relies on public-open satellite Earth Observation and geospatial data and gets trained with historical point-level in-Situ measurements of mosquito abundance. Then we propose a methodology to extract information from a point-level predictive model to a broader area-level prediction. Our methodology relies on the randomly spatial sampling of the area of interest (similar to the Poisson hardcore process), obtaining the EO and geomorphological information for each sample, doing the point-wise prediction for each sample, and aggregating the predictions to represent the average mosquito abundance of the area. We quantify the performance of the transformation from the pointlevel to the area-level predictions, and we analyze it in order to understand which parameters have a positive or negative impact on it. The goal of this study is to propose a methodology that predicts the mosquito abundance of a given area by relying on point-level prediction and to provide qualitative insights regarding the expected performance of the area-level prediction. We applied our methodology to historical data (of Culex pipiens) of two areas of interest (Veneto region of Italy and Central Macedonia of Greece). In both cases, the results were consistent. The mean mosquito abundance of a given area can be estimated with similar accuracy to the point-level predictor, sometimes even better. The density of the samples that we use to represent one area has a positive effect on the performance in contrast to the actual number of sampling points which is not informative at all regarding the performance without the size of the area. Additionally, we saw that the distance between the sampling points and the real in-situ measurements that were used for training did not strongly affect the performance.

Keywords: mosquito abundance, supervised machine learning, culex pipiens, spatial sampling, west nile virus, earth observation data

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Authors: Mohammad Ghavami, Reza S. Dilmaghani

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This paper presents an adaptive framework for modelling financial markets using equity risk premiums, risk free rates and volatilities. The recorded economic factors are initially used to train four adaptive filters for a certain limited period of time in the past. Once the systems are trained, the adjusted coefficients are used for modelling and prediction of an important financial market index. Two different approaches based on least mean squares (LMS) and recursive least squares (RLS) algorithms are investigated. Performance analysis of each method in terms of the mean squared error (MSE) is presented and the results are discussed. Computer simulations carried out using recorded data show MSEs of 4% and 3.4% for the next month prediction using LMS and RLS adaptive algorithms, respectively. In terms of twelve months prediction, RLS method shows a better tendency estimation compared to the LMS algorithm.

Keywords: adaptive methods, LSE, MSE, prediction of financial Markets

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Authors: Nieves M. C. Talavera-Prieto, Abel G. M. Ferreira, António T. G. Portugal, Rui J. Moreira, Jaime B. Santos

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The knowledge of biodiesel density over large ranges of temperature and pressure is important for predicting the behavior of fuel injection and combustion systems in diesel engines, and for the optimization of such systems. In this study, cottonseed oil was transesterified into biodiesel and its density was measured at temperatures between 288 K and 358 K and pressures between 0.1 MPa and 30 MPa, with expanded uncertainty estimated as ±1.6 kg.m^-3. Experimental pressure-volume-temperature (pVT) cottonseed data was used along with literature data relative to other 18 biodiesels, in order to build a database used to test the correlation of density with temperarure and pressure using the Goharshadi–Morsali–Abbaspour equation of state (GMA EoS). To our knowledge, this is the first that density measurements are presented for cottonseed biodiesel under such high pressures, and the GMA EoS used to model biodiesel density. The new tested EoS allowed correlations within 0.2 kg•m-3 corresponding to average relative deviations within 0.02%. The built database was used to develop and test a new full predictive model derived from the observed linear relation between density and degree of unsaturation (DU), which depended from biodiesel FAMEs profile. The average density deviation of this method was only about 3 kg.m-3 within the temperature and pressure limits of application. These results represent appreciable improvements in the context of density prediction at high pressure when compared with other equations of state.

Keywords: biodiesel density, correlation, equation of state, prediction

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Authors: Retno A. Vinarti, Lucy M. Hederman

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This research describes a knowledge model for a system which give personalized alert to users about infectious disease risks in the context of weather, location and time. The knowledge model is based on established epidemiological concepts augmented by information gleaned from infection-related data repositories. The existing disease risk prediction research has more focuses on utilizing raw historical data and yield seasonal patterns of infectious disease risk emergence. This research incorporates both data and epidemiological concepts gathered from Atlas of Human Infectious Disease (AHID) and Centre of Disease Control (CDC) as basic reasoning of infectious disease risk prediction. Using CommonKADS methodology, the disease risk prediction task is an assignment synthetic task, starting from knowledge identification through specification, refinement to implementation. First, knowledge is gathered from AHID primarily from the epidemiology and risk group chapters for each infectious disease. The result of this stage is five major elements (Person, Infectious Disease, Weather, Location and Time) and their properties. At the knowledge specification stage, the initial tree model of each element and detailed relationships are produced. This research also includes a validation step as part of knowledge refinement: on the basis that the best model is formed using the most common features, Frequency-based Selection (FBS) is applied. The portion of the Infectious Disease risk model relating to Person comes out strongest, with Location next, and Weather weaker. For Person attribute, Age is the strongest, Activity and Habits are moderate, and Blood type is weakest. At the Location attribute, General category (e.g. continents, region, country, and island) results much stronger than Specific category (i.e. terrain feature). For Weather attribute, Less Precise category (i.e. season) comes out stronger than Precise category (i.e. exact temperature or humidity interval). However, given that some infectious diseases are significantly more serious than others, a frequency based metric may not be appropriate. Future work will incorporate epidemiological measurements of disease seriousness (e.g. odds ratio, hazard ratio and fatality rate) into the validation metrics. This research is limited to modelling existing knowledge about epidemiology and chain of infection concepts. Further step, verification in knowledge refinement stage, might cause some minor changes on the shape of tree.

Keywords: epidemiology, knowledge modelling, infectious disease, prediction, risk

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Authors: Hyon I. Paek, Sang Rim Kim, Hyon A. Ryu

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In functional linear regression, one typical problem is to reduce dimension. Compared with multivariate linear regression, functional linear regression is regarded as an infinite-dimensional case, and the main task is to reduce dimensions of functional response and functional predictors. One common approach is to adapt functional principal component analysis (FPCA) on functional predictors and then use a few leading functional principal components (FPC) to predict the functional model. The leading FPCs estimated by the typical FPCA explain a major variation of the functional predictor, but these leading FPCs may not be mostly correlated with the functional response, so they may not be significant in the prediction for response. In this paper, we propose a supervised functional principal component analysis method for a functional response model with FPCs obtained by considering the correlation of the functional response. Our method would have a better prediction accuracy than the typical FPCA method.

Keywords: supervised, functional principal component analysis, functional response, functional linear regression

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Authors: Ayesha Sanjana Kawser Parsha

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S-acylation is an irreversible bond in which cysteine residues are linked to fatty acids palmitate (74%) or stearate (22%), either at the COOH or NH2 terminal, via a thioester linkage. There are several experimental methods that can be used to identify the S-palmitoylation site; however, since they require a lot of time, computational methods are becoming increasingly necessary. There aren't many predictors, however, that can locate S- palmitoylation sites in Arabidopsis Thaliana with sufficient accuracy. This research is based on the importance of building a better prediction tool. To identify the type of machine learning algorithm that predicts this site more accurately for the experimental dataset, several prediction tools were examined in this research, including the GPS PALM 6.0, pCysMod, GPS LIPID 1.0, CSS PALM 4.0, and NBA PALM. These analyses were conducted by constructing the receiver operating characteristics plot and the area under the curve score. An AI-driven deep learning-based prediction tool has been developed utilizing the analysis and three sequence-based input data, such as the amino acid composition, binary encoding profile, and autocorrelation features. The model was developed using five layers, two activation functions, associated parameters, and hyperparameters. The model was built using various combinations of features, and after training and validation, it performed better when all the features were present while using the experimental dataset for 8 and 10-fold cross-validations. While testing the model with unseen and new data, such as the GPS PALM 6.0 plant and pCysMod mouse, the model performed better, and the area under the curve score was near 1. It can be demonstrated that this model outperforms the prior tools in predicting the S- palmitoylation site in the experimental data set by comparing the area under curve score of 10-fold cross-validation of the new model with the established tools' area under curve score with their respective training sets. The objective of this study is to develop a prediction tool for Arabidopsis Thaliana that is more accurate than current tools, as measured by the area under the curve score. Plant food production and immunological treatment targets can both be managed by utilizing this method to forecast S- palmitoylation sites.

Keywords: S- palmitoylation, ROC PLOT, area under the curve, cross- validation score

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Authors: Rosdyana Mangir Irawan Kusuma, Wei-Chun Kao, Ho-Thi Trang, Yu-Yen Ou, Kai-Lung Hua

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Stock market prediction is still a challenging problem because there are many factors that affect the stock market price such as company news and performance, industry performance, investor sentiment, social media sentiment, and economic factors. This work explores the predictability in the stock market using deep convolutional network and candlestick charts. The outcome is utilized to design a decision support framework that can be used by traders to provide suggested indications of future stock price direction. We perform this work using various types of neural networks like convolutional neural network, residual network and visual geometry group network. From stock market historical data, we converted it to candlestick charts. Finally, these candlestick charts will be feed as input for training a convolutional neural network model. This convolutional neural network model will help us to analyze the patterns inside the candlestick chart and predict the future movements of the stock market. The effectiveness of our method is evaluated in stock market prediction with promising results; 92.2% and 92.1 % accuracy for Taiwan and Indonesian stock market dataset respectively.

Keywords: candlestick chart, deep learning, neural network, stock market prediction

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Authors: Antoni Wibowo, Harry Pujianto, Dewi Retno Sari Saputro

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The stock market can provide huge profits in a relatively short time in financial sector; however, it also has a high risk for investors and traders if they are not careful to look the factors that affect the stock market. Therefore, they should give attention to the dynamic fluctuations and movements of the stock market to optimize profits from their investment. In this paper, we present a nonlinear autoregressive exogenous model (NARX) to predict the movements of stock market; especially, the movements of the closing price index. As case study, we consider to predict the movement of the closing price in Indonesia composite index (IHSG) and choose the best structures of NARX for IHSG’s prediction.

Keywords: NARX (Nonlinear Autoregressive Exogenous Model), prediction, stock market, time series

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Authors: S. Adjiri-Bailiche, S. M. Boudia, H. Daaou, S. Hadouche, A. Benzaoui

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In this work the study of changes in the wind speed depending on the altitude is calculated and described by the model of the neural networks, the use of measured data, the speed and direction of wind, temperature and the humidity at 10 m are used as input data and as data targets at 50m above sea level. Comparing predict wind speeds and extrapolated at 50 m above sea level is performed. The results show that the prediction by the method of artificial neural networks is very accurate.

Keywords: MATLAB, neural network, power low, vertical extrapolation, wind energy, wind speed

Procedia PDF Downloads 649

Authors: Ciro Cursio, Giulia Cursio, Pio Luigi Cursio, Luigi Cursio

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Communication between practitioner and patient is of the utmost importance in aesthetic medicine: as of today, images of previous treatments are the most common tool used by doctors to describe and anticipate future results for their patients. However, using photos of other people often reduces the engagement of the prospective patient and is further limited by the number and quality of pictures available to the practitioner. Pre-existing work solves this issue in two ways: 3D scanning of the area with manual editing of the 3D model by the doctor or automatic prediction of the treatment by warping the image with hand-written parameters. The first approach requires the manual intervention of the doctor, while the second approach always generates results that aren’t always realistic. Thus, in one case, there is significant manual work required by the doctor, and in the other case, the prediction looks artificial. We propose an AI-based algorithm that autonomously generates a realistic prediction of treatment results. For the purpose of this study, we focus on hyaluronic acid treatments in the facial area. Our approach takes into account the individual characteristics of each face, and furthermore, the prediction system allows the patient to decide which area of the face she wants to modify. We show that the predictions generated by our system are realistic: first, the quality of the generated images is on par with real images; second, the prediction matches the actual results obtained after the treatment is completed. In conclusion, the proposed approach provides a valid tool for doctors to show patients what they will look like before deciding on the treatment.

Keywords: prediction, hyaluronic acid, treatment, artificial intelligence

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Authors: Hamza Nejib, Okba Taouali

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This paper presents two of the most knowing kernel adaptive filtering (KAF) approaches, the kernel least mean squares and the kernel recursive least squares, in order to predict a new output of nonlinear signal processing. Both of these methods implement a nonlinear transfer function using kernel methods in a particular space named reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) where the model is a linear combination of kernel functions applied to transform the observed data from the input space to a high dimensional feature space of vectors, this idea known as the kernel trick. Then KAF is the developing filters in RKHS. We use two nonlinear signal processing problems, Mackey Glass chaotic time series prediction and nonlinear channel equalization to figure the performance of the approaches presented and finally to result which of them is the adapted one.

Keywords: online prediction, KAF, signal processing, RKHS, Kernel methods, KRLS, KLMS

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Authors: Jiun Jeon, Byung-Ju Yi

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This paper investigates modeling and shape prediction of elastic kinematic chains such as colonoscopy. 2D and 3D models of elastic kinematic chains are suggested and their behaviors are demonstrated through simulation. To corroborate the effectiveness of those models, experimental work is performed using a magnetic sensor system.

Keywords: elastic kinematic chain, shape prediction, colonoscopy, modeling

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Authors: Aboussalih Amira, Zarza Tahar, Fedaoui Kamel, Hammoudi Saleh

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This work focuses on the simulation of the prediction of the behaviour of austenitic stainless steel (SS) 304L under complex loading in stress and imposed strain. The Chaboche model is a cable to describe the response of the material by the combination of two isotropic and nonlinear kinematic work hardening, the model is implemented in the ZébuLon computer code. First, we represent the evolution of the axial stress as a function of the plastic strain through hysteresis loops revealing a hardening behaviour caused by the increase in stress by stress in the direction of tension/compression. In a second step, the study of the ratcheting phenomenon takes a key place in this work by the appearance of the average stress. In addition to the solicitation of the material in the biaxial direction in traction / torsion.

Keywords: damage, 304L, Ratcheting, plastic strain

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Authors: F. J. Ma, A. K. H. Kwan

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Crack caused by shrinkage movement of concrete is a serious problem especially when restraint is provided. It may cause severe serviceability and durability problems. The existing prediction methods for crack width of concrete due to shrinkage movement are mainly numerical methods under simplified circumstances, which do not agree with each other. To get a more unified prediction method applicable to more sophisticated circumstances, finite element crack width analysis for shrinkage effect should be developed. However, no existing finite element analysis can be carried out to predict the crack width of concrete due to shrinkage movement because of unsolved reasons of conventional finite element analysis. In this paper, crack width analysis implemented by finite element analysis is presented with pseudo-discrete crack model, which combines traditional smeared crack model and newly proposed crack queuing algorithm. The proposed pseudo-discrete crack model is capable of simulating separate and single crack without adopting discrete crack element. And the improved finite element analysis can successfully simulate the stress redistribution when concrete is cracked, which is crucial for predicting crack width, crack spacing and crack number.

Keywords: crack queuing algorithm, crack width analysis, finite element analysis, shrinkage effect

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Authors: Kanchan Mondal, Dasharath Koulage, Dattatray Manerikar, Asmita Ghate

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This paper presents an additive reliability model using warranty data and Finite Element Analysis (FEA) data. Warranty data for any product gives insight to its underlying issues. This is often used by Reliability Engineers to build prediction model to forecast failure rate of parts. But there is one major limitation in using warranty data for prediction. Warranty periods constitute only a small fraction of total lifetime of a product, most of the time it covers only the infant mortality and useful life zone of a bathtub curve. Predicting with warranty data alone in these cases is not generally provide results with desired accuracy. Failure rate of a mechanical part is driven by random issues initially and wear-out or usage related issues at later stages of the lifetime. For better predictability of failure rate, one need to explore the failure rate behavior at wear out zone of a bathtub curve. Due to cost and time constraints, it is not always possible to test samples till failure, but FEA-Fatigue analysis can provide the failure rate behavior of a part much beyond warranty period in a quicker time and at lesser cost. In this work, the authors proposed an Additive Weibull Model, which make use of both warranty and FEA fatigue analysis data for predicting failure rates. It involves modeling of two data sets of a part, one with existing warranty claims and other with fatigue life data. Hazard rate base Weibull estimation has been used for the modeling the warranty data whereas S-N curved based Weibull parameter estimation is used for FEA data. Two separate Weibull models’ parameters are estimated and combined to form the proposed Additive Weibull Model for prediction.

Keywords: bathtub curve, fatigue, FEA, reliability, warranty, Weibull

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Authors: Gonzalez Carlos, Martinez Fransisco

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The creation of a seismic prediction model that considers all the regional variations and perfectly adjusts its results to the response spectra is very complicated. To achieve statistically acceptable results, it is necessary to process a sufficiently robust data set, and even if high efficiencies are achieved, this model will only work properly in this region. However, when using it in other regions, differences are found due to different parameters that have not been calibrated to other regions, such as the site effect. The fact that impedance contrasts, as well as other factors belonging to the site, have a great influence on the local response is well known, which is why this work, using the residual method, is intended to establish a regional calibration of the corresponding parameters site effect for the Spain region in the global GMPM BSSA 14.

Keywords: GMPM, seismic prediction equations, residual method, response spectra, impedance contrast

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Authors: Denys Osipenko, Jonathan Crook

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Because of the variety of the card holders’ behaviour types and income sources each consumer account can be transferred to a variety of states. Each consumer account can be inactive, transactor, revolver, delinquent, defaulted and requires an individual model for the income prediction. The estimation of transition probabilities between statuses at the account level helps to avoid the memorylessness of the Markov Chains approach. This paper investigates the transition probabilities estimation approaches to credit cards income prediction at the account level. The key question of empirical research is which approach gives more accurate results: multinomial logistic regression or multistage conditional logistic regression with binary target. Both models have shown moderate predictive power. Prediction accuracy for conditional logistic regression depends on the order of stages for the conditional binary logistic regression. On the other hand, multinomial logistic regression is easier for usage and gives integrate estimations for all states without priorities. Thus further investigations can be concentrated on alternative modeling approaches such as discrete choice models.

Keywords: multinomial regression, conditional logistic regression, credit account state, transition probability

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Authors: Chunhua Liao, Jinfei Wang, Bo Shan, Yang Song, Yongjun He, Taifeng Dong

Abstract:

Winter wheat is one of the main crops in Canada. Forecasting of within-field variability of yield in winter wheat at the early stages is essential for precision farming. However, the crop yield modelling based on high spatial resolution satellite data is generally affected by the lack of continuous satellite observations, resulting in reducing the generalization ability of the models and increasing the difficulty of crop yield forecasting at the early stages. In this study, the correlations between Sentinel-2 data (vegetation indices and reflectance) and yield data collected by combine harvester were investigated and a generalized multivariate linear regression (MLR) model was built and tested with data acquired in different years. It was found that the four-band reflectance (blue, green, red, near-infrared) performed better than their vegetation indices (NDVI, EVI, WDRVI and OSAVI) in wheat yield prediction. The optimum phenological stage for wheat yield prediction with highest accuracy was at the growing stages from the end of the flowering to the beginning of the filling stage. The best MLR model was therefore built to predict wheat yield before harvest using Sentinel-2 data acquired at the end of the flowering stage. Further, to improve the ability of the yield prediction at the early stages, three simple unsupervised domain adaptation (DA) methods were adopted to transform the reflectance data at the early stages to the optimum phenological stage. The winter wheat yield prediction using multiple vegetation indices showed higher accuracy than using single vegetation index. The optimum stage for winter wheat yield forecasting varied with different fields when using vegetation indices, while it was consistent when using multispectral reflectance and the optimum stage for winter wheat yield prediction was at the end of flowering stage. The average testing RMSE of the MLR model at the end of the flowering stage was 604.48 kg/ha. Near the booting stage, the average testing RMSE of yield prediction using the best MLR was reduced to 799.18 kg/ha when applying the mean matching domain adaptation approach to transform the data to the target domain (at the end of the flowering) compared to that using the original data based on the models developed at the booting stage directly (“MLR at the early stage”) (RMSE =1140.64 kg/ha). This study demonstrated that the simple mean matching (MM) performed better than other DA methods and it was found that “DA then MLR at the optimum stage” performed better than “MLR directly at the early stages” for winter wheat yield forecasting at the early stages. The results indicated that the DA had a great potential in near real-time crop yield forecasting at the early stages. This study indicated that the simple domain adaptation methods had a great potential in crop yield prediction at the early stages using remote sensing data.

Keywords: wheat yield prediction, domain adaptation, Sentinel-2, within-field scale

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Authors: Soha A. Bahanshal, Vaibhav Verdhan, Bayong Kim

Abstract:

Graduation rates at six-year colleges are becoming a more essential indicator for incoming fresh students and for university rankings. Predicting student graduation is extremely beneficial to schools and has a huge potential for targeted intervention. It is important for educational institutions since it enables the development of strategic plans that will assist or improve students' performance in achieving their degrees on time (GOT). A first step and a helping hand in extracting useful information from these data and gaining insights into the prediction of students' progress and performance is offered by machine learning techniques. Data analysis and visualization techniques are applied to understand and interpret the data. The data used for the analysis contains students who have graduated in 6 years in the academic year 2017-2018 for science majors. This analysis can be used to predict the graduation of students in the next academic year. Different Predictive modelings such as logistic regression, decision trees, support vector machines, Random Forest, Naïve Bayes, and KNeighborsClassifier are applied to predict whether a student will graduate. These classifiers were evaluated with k folds of 5. The performance of these classifiers was compared based on accuracy measurement. The results indicated that Ensemble Classifier achieves better accuracy, about 91.12%. This GOT prediction model would hopefully be useful to university administration and academics in developing measures for assisting and boosting students' academic performance and ensuring they graduate on time.

Keywords: prediction, decision trees, machine learning, support vector machine, ensemble model, student graduation, GOT graduate on time

Procedia PDF Downloads 44