Search results for: Bayesian methods

Authors: B. Sellami, Y. Laskri, M. Belloufi

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Conjugate gradient methods are an important class of methods for unconstrained optimization, especially for large-scale problems. Recently, they have been much studied. In this paper, a new family of conjugate gradient method is proposed for unconstrained optimization. This method includes the already existing two practical nonlinear conjugate gradient methods, which produces a descent search direction at every iteration and converges globally provided that the line search satisfies the Wolfe conditions. The numerical experiments are done to test the efficiency of the new method, which implies the new method is promising. In addition the methods related to this family are uniformly discussed.

Keywords: conjugate gradient method, global convergence, line search, unconstrained optimization

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Authors: Ayman Baklizi

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Based on type II censored data, we consider interval estimation of the quantiles of the two-parameter exponential distribution and the difference between the quantiles of two independent two-parameter exponential distributions. We derive asymptotic intervals, Bayesian, as well as intervals based on the generalized pivot variable. We also include some bootstrap intervals in our comparisons. The performance of these intervals is investigated in terms of their coverage probabilities and expected lengths.

Keywords: asymptotic intervals, Bayes intervals, bootstrap, generalized pivot variables, two-parameter exponential distribution, quantiles

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Authors: Y. Mehdipour, S. Ebrahimi, A. Jahanpour, F. Seyedzaei, B. Sabayan, A. Karimi, H. Amirifard

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Ischemic stroke is one of the common reasons for disability and mortality. The fourth leading cause of death in the world and the third in some other sources. Only 1/3 of the patients with ischemic stroke fully recover, 1/3 of them end in permanent disability and 1/3 face death. Thus, the use of predictive models to predict stroke has a vital role in reducing the complications and costs related to this disease. Thus, the aim of this study was to specify the effective factors and predict ischemic stroke with the help of DM methods. The present study was a descriptive-analytic study. The population was 213 cases from among patients referring to Ali ibn Abi Talib (AS) Hospital in Zahedan. Data collection tool was a checklist with the validity and reliability confirmed. This study used DM algorithms of decision tree for modeling. Data analysis was performed using SPSS-19 and SPSS Modeler 14.2. The results of the comparison of algorithms showed that CHAID algorithm with 95.7% accuracy has the best performance. Moreover, based on the model created, factors such as anemia, diabetes mellitus, hyperlipidemia, transient ischemic attacks, coronary artery disease, and atherosclerosis are the most effective factors in stroke. Decision tree algorithms, especially CHAID algorithm, have acceptable precision and predictive ability to determine the factors affecting ischemic stroke. Thus, by creating predictive models through this algorithm, will play a significant role in decreasing the mortality and disability caused by ischemic stroke.

Keywords: data mining, ischemic stroke, decision tree, Bayesian network

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Authors: Mouhamadou Dosso

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This paper presents methods of spectral dichotomy of a matrix which compute spectral projectors on the subspace associated with the eigenvalues external to the parabolas described by a general equation. These methods are modifications of the one proposed in [A. N. Malyshev and M. Sadkane, SIAM J. MATRIX ANAL. APPL. 18 (2), 265-278, 1997] which uses the spectral dichotomy method of a matrix with respect to the imaginary axis. Theoretical and algorithmic aspects of the methods are developed. Numerical results obtained by applying methods presented on matrices are reported.

Keywords: spectral dichotomy method, spectral projector, eigensubspaces, eigenvalue

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Authors: Musoke Ivan, Birungi Racheal

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The construction trend is characterized by increased use of modern methods yet traditional methods are cheaper in terms of costs, in addition to the benefits it offers to the construction sector, like providing more jobs that could have been worked with the intensive machines. The purpose of this research was to assess the influence of using Traditional methods of construction (TMC) on the costs and quality of building structures and determine the different ways. Traditional methods of construction (TMC) can be applicable and integrated into the construction trend, and propose ways how this can be a success. The study adopted a quantitative method approach targeting various construction professionals like Architects, Quantity surveyors, Engineers, and Construction Managers. Questionnaires and analyses of literature were used to obtain research data and findings. Simple random sampling was used to select 40 construction professionals to which questionnaires were administered. The data was then analyzed using Microsoft Excel. The findings of the research indicate that Traditional methods of construction (TMCs) in Uganda are cheaper in terms of costs, but the quality is still low. This is attributed to a lack of skilled labour and efficient supervision while undertaking tasks leading to low quality. The study identifies strategies that would improve Traditional methods of construction (TMC), which include the employment of skilled manpower and effective supervision. It also identifies the need by stakeholders like the government, clients, and professionals to appreciate Traditional methods of construction (TMCs) and allow for a levelled ground for Traditional Methods of Construction and Modern methods of construction (MMCs).

Keywords: traditional methods of construction, integration, cost, quality

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Authors: Amal Machtalay

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In this survey, we aim to review the rapidly growing literature on numerical methods to solve different forms of mean field problems, namely mean field games (MFG), mean field controls (MFC), potential MFGs, and master equations, as well as their corresponding recent applications. Here, we distinguish two families of numerical methods: iterative methods based on mesh generation and those called mesh-free, normally related to neural networking and learning frameworks.

Keywords: mean-field games, numerical schemes, partial differential equations, complex systems, machine learning

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Authors: Manish Kumar Thakur, Subrata Kumar Ghosh

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Various types of particles found in lubricant may be characterized by their fractal dimension. Some of the available methods are: yard-stick method or structured walk method, box-counting method. This paper presents a review of the developments and progress in fractal dimension computing methods as applied to characteristics the surface of wear particles. An overview of these methods, their implementation, their advantages and their limits is also present here. It has been accepted that wear particles contain major information about wear and friction of materials. Morphological analysis of wear particles from a lubricant is a very effective way for machine condition monitoring. Fractal dimension methods are used to characterize the morphology of the found particles. It is very useful in the analysis of complexity of irregular substance. The aim of this review is to bring together the fractal methods applicable for wear particles.

Keywords: fractal dimension, morphological analysis, wear, wear particles

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Authors: S. U. Kunya, S. Abdulkadir, M. A. Anas, L. Z. Adam

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Procurement methods is described as systems of contractual arrangements used by the contractor in order to secure the design and construction services based on the stipulated cost and within the required time and quality. Despite that, major projects in the Nigerian construction industry failed because of wrong procurement methods with major consequences leads to cost overrun which needs to find lasting solution. The aim of the study is to evaluate the influence of procurement methods on cost performance of building projects in Gombe State, Nigeria. Study adopts descriptive and explorative design approach. Data were collected through administering of one hundred questionnaire using convenient sampling techniques. Data analyses using percentages, mean value and Anova analysis. Major finding show that more than fifty percent (50%) of procurement methods available are mainly utilized in the study area and the top procurement methods that have high impacts on cost performance as compare with the other methods is project management and direct labour procurement methods. The results of hypothesis’ tests with pvalue 0.12 and 0.07 validated that there was no significant variation in the perception of stakeholders’ on the impacts of procurements methods on cost performance. Therefore, the study concluded that projects management and direct labour are the most appropriate procurement methods that will ensure successful completion of project at stipulated cost in building projects.

Keywords: cost, effects, performance, procurement, projects

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Authors: Kaleem Kashif, Tayyaba Anam, Yizhi Wu

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This paper introduces a methodology for advancing Italian speech vowels landmark detection within the distinctive feature-based speech recognition domain. Leveraging the legacy tool 'xkl' by integrating combined convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and recurrent neural networks (RNNs), the study presents a comprehensive enhancement to the 'xkl' legacy software. This integration incorporates re-assigned spectrogram methodologies, enabling meticulous acoustic analysis. Simultaneously, our proposed model, integrating combined CNNs and RNNs, demonstrates unprecedented precision and robustness in landmark detection. The augmentation of re-assigned spectrogram fusion within the 'xkl' software signifies a meticulous advancement, particularly enhancing precision related to vowel formant estimation. This augmentation catalyzes unparalleled accuracy in landmark detection, resulting in a substantial performance leap compared to conventional methods. The proposed model emerges as a state-of-the-art solution in the distinctive feature-based speech recognition systems domain. In the realm of deep learning, a synergistic integration of combined CNNs and RNNs is introduced, endowed with specialized temporal embeddings, harnessing self-attention mechanisms, and positional embeddings. The proposed model allows it to excel in capturing intricate dependencies within Italian speech vowels, rendering it highly adaptable and sophisticated in the distinctive feature domain. Furthermore, our advanced temporal modeling approach employs Bayesian temporal encoding, refining the measurement of inter-landmark intervals. Comparative analysis against state-of-the-art models reveals a substantial improvement in accuracy, highlighting the robustness and efficacy of the proposed methodology. Upon rigorous testing on a database (LaMIT) speech recorded in a silent room by four Italian native speakers, the landmark detector demonstrates exceptional performance, achieving a 95% true detection rate and a 10% false detection rate. A majority of missed landmarks were observed in proximity to reduced vowels. These promising results underscore the robust identifiability of landmarks within the speech waveform, establishing the feasibility of employing a landmark detector as a front end in a speech recognition system. The synergistic integration of re-assigned spectrogram fusion, CNNs, RNNs, and Bayesian temporal encoding not only signifies a significant advancement in Italian speech vowels landmark detection but also positions the proposed model as a leader in the field. The model offers distinct advantages, including unparalleled accuracy, adaptability, and sophistication, marking a milestone in the intersection of deep learning and distinctive feature-based speech recognition. This work contributes to the broader scientific community by presenting a methodologically rigorous framework for enhancing landmark detection accuracy in Italian speech vowels. The integration of cutting-edge techniques establishes a foundation for future advancements in speech signal processing, emphasizing the potential of the proposed model in practical applications across various domains requiring robust speech recognition systems.

Keywords: landmark detection, acoustic analysis, convolutional neural network, recurrent neural network

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Authors: Reza Mollapourasl, Majid Haghi

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In this study, we develop local meshfree methods known as radial basis function-generated finite difference (RBF-FD) method and Hermite finite difference (RBF-HFD) method to design stencil weights and spatial discretization for Helmholtz equation. The convergence and stability of schemes are investigated numerically in three dimensions with irregular shaped domain. These localized meshless methods incorporate the advantages of the RBF method, finite difference and Hermite finite difference methods to handle the ill-conditioning issue that often destroys the convergence rate of global RBF methods. Moreover, numerical illustrations show that the proposed localized RBF type methods are efficient and applicable for problems with complex geometries. The convergence and accuracy of both schemes are compared by solving a test problem.

Keywords: radial basis functions, Hermite finite difference, Helmholtz equation, stability

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Authors: Pilar Cornejo Ulloa, Guy Willems, Steffen Fieuws, Kim Quintelier, Wim Van Neer, Patrick Thevissen

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Dental age estimation can be performed both in living and deceased individuals. In anthropology, few studies have tested the reliability of dental age estimation methods complementary to the usually applied osteological methods. Objectives: In this study, destructive and non-destructive dental age estimation methods were applied on an archeological sample in order to compare them with the previously obtained anthropological age estimates. Materials and Methods: One hundred and thirty-four teeth from 24 individuals were analyzed using Kvaal, Kvaal and Solheim, Bang and Ramm, Lamendin, Gustafson, Maples, Dalitz and Johanson’s methods. Results: A high variability and wider age ranges than the ones previously obtained by the anthropologist could be observed. Destructive methods had a slightly higher agreement than the non-destructive. Discussion: Due to the heterogeneity of the sample and the lack of the real age at death, the obtained results were not representative, and it was not possible to suggest one dental age estimation method over another.

Keywords: archeology, dental age estimation, forensic anthropology, forensic dentistry

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Authors: M. Abdullah, Al-Wadud

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Sensor-based activity recognition systems usually accounts which sensors have been activated to perform an activity. The system then combines the conditional probabilities of those sensors to represent different activities and takes the decision based on that. However, the information about the sensors which are not activated may also be of great help in deciding which activity has been performed. This paper proposes an approach where the sensory data related to both usage and non-usage of objects are utilized to make the classification of activities. Experimental results also show the promising performance of the proposed method.

Keywords: Naïve Bayesian, based classification, activity recognition, sensor data, object-usage model

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Authors: Arindam Chaudhuri

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Classification of data has been actively used for most effective and efficient means of conveying knowledge and information to users. The prima face has always been upon techniques for extracting useful knowledge from data such that returns are maximized. With emergence of huge datasets the existing classification techniques often fail to produce desirable results. The challenge lies in analyzing and understanding characteristics of massive data sets by retrieving useful geometric and statistical patterns. We propose a supervised parallel fuzzy rough support vector machine (PFRSVM) for data classification in cloud environment. The classification is performed by PFRSVM using hyperbolic tangent kernel. The fuzzy rough set model takes care of sensitiveness of noisy samples and handles impreciseness in training samples bringing robustness to results. The membership function is function of center and radius of each class in feature space and is represented with kernel. It plays an important role towards sampling the decision surface. The success of PFRSVM is governed by choosing appropriate parameter values. The training samples are either linear or nonlinear separable. The different input points make unique contributions to decision surface. The algorithm is parallelized with a view to reduce training times. The system is built on support vector machine library using Hadoop implementation of MapReduce. The algorithm is tested on large data sets to check its feasibility and convergence. The performance of classifier is also assessed in terms of number of support vectors. The challenges encountered towards implementing big data classification in machine learning frameworks are also discussed. The experiments are done on the cloud environment available at University of Technology and Management, India. The results are illustrated for Gaussian RBF and Bayesian kernels. The effect of variability in prediction and generalization of PFRSVM is examined with respect to values of parameter C. It effectively resolves outliers’ effects, imbalance and overlapping class problems, normalizes to unseen data and relaxes dependency between features and labels. The average classification accuracy for PFRSVM is better than other classifiers for both Gaussian RBF and Bayesian kernels. The experimental results on both synthetic and real data sets clearly demonstrate the superiority of the proposed technique.

Keywords: FRSVM, Hadoop, MapReduce, PFRSVM

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Authors: B. I. Zhumagaliyev, L. Sh. Balgabayeva, G. S. Nabiyeva, B. A. Tulegenova, P. Oralkhan, B. S. Kalenova, S. S. Akhmetov

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The article describes an approach to build competence in research of Bachelor and Master, which is now an important feature of modern specialist in the field of engineering. Provides an example of methodical teaching methods with the research aspect, is including the formulation of the problem, the method of conducting experiments, analysis of the results. Implementation of methods allows the student to better consolidate their knowledge and skills at the same time to get research. Knowledge on the part of the media requires some training in the subject area and teaching methods.

Keywords: professional competence, model of it-specialties, teaching methods, educational technology, decision making

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Authors: C. Jameke

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During the cognitivist era in cognitive psychology, a theory of internal rules and symbolic representations was posited as an account of human cognition. This type of cognitive architecture had its heyday during the 1970s and 80s, but it has now been largely abandoned in favour of subsymbolic architectures (e.g. connectionism), non-representational frameworks (e.g. dynamical systems theory), and statistical approaches such as Bayesian theory. In this presentation I describe this changing landscape of research, and comment on the increasing influence of neuroscience on cognitive psychology. I then briefly review a few recent developments in connectionism, and neurocomputation relevant to cognitive psychology, and critically discuss the assumption made by some researchers in these frameworks that higher-level aspects of human cognition are simply emergent properties of massively large distributed neural networks

Keywords: connectionism, emergentism, postocgnitivist, representations, subsymbolic archiitecture

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Authors: Jehad Al Dallal

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Class cohesion is a key object-oriented software quality attribute that is used to evaluate the degree of relatedness of class attributes and methods. Researchers have proposed several class cohesion measures. However, the effect of considering the special methods (i.e., constructors, destructors, and access and delegation methods) in cohesion calculation is not thoroughly theoretically studied for most of them. In this paper, we address this issue for three popular connectivity-based class cohesion measures. For each of the considered measures we theoretically study the impact of including or excluding special methods on the values that are obtained by applying the measure. This study is based on analyzing the definitions and formulas that are proposed for the measures. The results show that including/excluding special methods has a considerable effect on the obtained cohesion values and that this effect varies from one measure to another. For each of the three connectivity-based measures, the proposed theoretical study recommended excluding the special methods in cohesion measurement.

Keywords: object-oriented class, software quality, class cohesion measure, class cohesion, special methods

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Authors: Ali Noorian

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Crude oil contains various compounds of hydrocarbons but low concentrations of inorganic compounds or metals. Vanadium and Nickel are the most common metals in crude oil. These metals usually exist in solution in the oil and residual fuel oil in the refining process is condensed. Deleterious effects of metals in petroleum have been known for some time. These metals do not only contaminate the product but also cause intoxication and loss of catalyst and corrosion to equipment. In this study, removal of heavy metals and petroleum residues were investigated. These methods include physical, chemical and biological treatment processes. For example, processes such as solvent extraction and hydro-catalytic and catalytic methods are effective and practical methods, but typically often have high costs and cause environmental pollution. Furthermore, biological methods that do not cause environmental pollution have been discussed in recent years, but these methods have not yet been industrialized.

Keywords: removal, metal, heavy oil, nickel, vanadium

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Authors: Zhao Pengcheng, Yin Siyuan

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Fintech is the new hot topic of the 21st century, a discipline that combines financial theory with computer modelling. It can provide both digital analysis methods for investment banks and investment decisions for users. Given the variety of services available, it is necessary to provide a superior method of requirements elicitation to ensure that users' needs are addressed in the software development process. The accuracy of traditional software requirements elicitation methods is not sufficient, so this study attempts to use a multi-perspective based requirements heuristic framework. Methods such as interview and questionnaire combination, card sorting, and model driven are proposed. The collection results from PCA show that the new methods can better help with requirements elicitation. However, the method has some limitations and, there are some efficiency issues. However, the research in this paper provides a good theoretical extension that can provide researchers with some new research methods and perspectives viewpoints.

Keywords: requirement elicitation, FinTech, mobile application, survey, interview, model-driven

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Authors: Aslı Günay Bulutsuz, Mehmet Emin Yurci

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Severe plastic deformation techniques are top-down deformation methods which enable superior mechanical properties by decreasing grain size. Different kind severe plastic deformation methods have been widely being used at various process temperature and geometries. Besides manufacturing advantages of severe plastic deformation technique, most of the types are being used only at the laboratory level. They cannot be adapted to industrial usage due to their continuous manufacturability and manufacturing costs. In order to enhance these manufacturing difficulties and enable widespread usage, different kinds of methods have been developed. In this review, a comprehensive literature research was fulfilled in order to highlight continuous severe plastic deformation methods.

Keywords: continuous manufacturing, severe plastic deformation, ultrafine grains, grain size refinement

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Authors: Daniel Tochwin

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Continuous improvement is an essential part of effective process performance management. In order to achieve continuous quality improvement, each organization must use the appropriate selection of tools and techniques. The basic condition for success is a proper understanding of the business need faced by the company and the selection of appropriate methods to improve a given production process. The main aim of this article is to analyze the methods of conduct which are popular in practice when implementing process improvements and then to determine whether the tested methods include repetitive systematics of the approach, i.e., a similar sequence of the same or similar actions. Based on an extensive literature review, 4 methods of continuous improvement of production processes were selected: A3 report, Gemba Kaizen, PDCA cycle, and Deming cycle. The research shows that all frequently used improvement methods are generally based on the PDCA cycle, and the differences are due to "(re)interpretation" and the need to adapt the continuous improvement approach to the specific business process. The research shows that all the frequently used improvement methods are generally based on the PDCA cycle, and the differences are due to "(re) interpretation" and the need to adapt the continuous improvement approach to the specific business process.

Keywords: continuous improvement, lean methods, process improvement, PDCA

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Authors: Suparman

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This paper addresses the problem of the signal segmentation within a Bayesian framework by using reversible jump MCMC algorithm. The signal is modelled by piecewise constant Moving-Average (MA) model where the numbers of segments, the position of change-point, the order and the coefficient of the MA model for each segment are unknown. The reversible jump MCMC algorithm is then used to generate samples distributed according to the joint posterior distribution of the unknown parameters. These samples allow calculating some interesting features of the posterior distribution. The performance of the methodology is illustrated via several simulation results.

Keywords: piecewise, moving-average model, reversible jump MCMC, signal segmentation

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Authors: Manon Ghislain, Timothée Bonnet, Olivier Gimenez, Olivier Dehorter, Pierre-Yves Henry

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Climatic fluctuations affect the demography of animal populations, generating changes in population size, phenology, distribution and community assemblages. However, very few studies have identified the underlying demographic processes. For short-lived species, like common passerine birds, are these changes generated by changes in adult survival or in fecundity and recruitment? This study tests for an effect of annual climatic conditions (spring and winter) on annual, local adult survival at very large spatial (a country, 252 sites), temporal (25 years) and biological (25 species) scales. The Constant Effort Site ringing has allowed the collection of capture - mark - recapture data for 100 000 adult individuals since 1989, over metropolitan France, thus documenting annual, local survival rates of the most common passerine birds. We specifically developed a set of multi-year, multi-species, multi-site Bayesian models describing variations in local survival and recapture probabilities. This method allows for a statistically powerful hierarchical assessment (global versus species-specific) of the effects of climate variables on survival. A major part of between-year variations in survival rate was common to all species (74% of between-year variance), whereas only 26% of temporal variation was species-specific. Although changing spring climate is commonly invoked as a cause of population size fluctuations, spring climatic anomalies (mean precipitation or temperature for March-August) do not impact adult survival: only 1% of between-year variation of species survival is explained by spring climatic anomalies. However, for sedentary birds, winter climatic anomalies (North Atlantic Oscillation) had a significant, quadratic effect on adult survival, birds surviving less during intermediate years than during more extreme years. For migratory birds, we do not detect an effect of winter climatic anomalies (Sahel Rainfall). We will analyze the life history traits (migration, habitat, thermal range) that could explain a different sensitivity of species to winter climate anomalies. Overall, we conclude that changes in population sizes for passerine birds are unlikely to be the consequences of climate-driven mortality (or emigration) in spring but could be induced by other demographic parameters, like fecundity.

Keywords: Bayesian approach, capture-recapture, climate anomaly, constant effort sites scheme, passerine, seasons, survival

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Authors: Nashrawan Naser Taha, Andrew M. Cox

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In a multi-cultural learning context, where ties are weak and dynamic, combining qualitative with quantitative research methods may be more effective. Such a combination may also allow us to answer different types of question, such as about people’s perception of the network. In this study the use of observation, interviews and photos were explored as ways of enhancing data from social network questionnaires. Integrating all of these methods was found to enhance the quality of data collected and its accuracy, also providing a richer story of the network dynamics and the factors that shaped these changes over time.

Keywords: mixed methods, social network analysis, multi-cultural learning, social network dynamics

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Authors: Serkan Aras, Emrah Gulay

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Combining various forecasting models is an important tool for researchers to attain more accurate forecasts. A great number of papers have shown that selecting single models as dissimilar models, or methods based on different information as possible leads to better forecasting performances. However, there is not a certain rule regarding the number of single models to be used in any combining methods. This study focuses on determining the optimal or near optimal number for single models with the help of statistical tests. An extensive experiment is carried out by utilizing some well-known time series data sets from diverse fields. Furthermore, many rival forecasting methods and some of the commonly used combining methods are employed. The obtained results indicate that some statistically significant performance differences can be found regarding the number of the single models in the combining methods under investigation.

Keywords: combined forecast, forecasting, M-competition, time series

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Authors: Manideepa Saha, Jahnavi Chakrabarty

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Generalized Jacobi (GJ) and Generalized Gauss-Seidel (GGS) methods are most effective than conventional Jacobi and Gauss-Seidel methods for solving linear system of equations. It is known that GJ and GGS methods converge for strictly diagonally dominant (SDD) and for M-matrices. In this paper, we study the convergence of GJ and GGS converge for symmetric positive definite (SPD) matrices, L-matrices and H-matrices. We introduce a generalization of successive overrelaxation (SOR) method for solving linear systems and discuss its convergence for the classes of SDD matrices, SPD matrices, M-matrices, L-matrices and for H-matrices. Advantages of generalized SOR method are established through numerical experiments over GJ, GGS, and SOR methods.

Keywords: convergence, Gauss-Seidel, iterative method, Jacobi, SOR

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Authors: Wojciech Dąbrowski, Joanna Bąk, Laurent Solliec

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Nowadays technical and technological progress and constant development of methods and devices applied to sanitary engineering is indispensable. Issues related to sanitary engineering involve flow measurements for water and wastewater. The precise measurement is very important and pivotal for further actions, like monitoring. There are many methods and techniques of flow measurement in the area of sanitary engineering. Weirs and flumes are well–known methods and common used. But also there are alternative methods. Some of them are very simple methods, others are solutions using high technique. The old–time method combined with new technique could be more useful than earlier. Paper describes substitute method of flow gauging (California pipe method) and proposal of modification of this method used for inclined pipe. Examination of possibility of improving and developing old–time methods is direction of the investigation.

Keywords: California pipe, sewerage, flow rate measurement, water, wastewater, improve, modification, hydraulic monitoring, stream

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Authors: Xiao Yihong, Li Zhixuan, Wong Kah Seng, Shen Xingcang

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Requirement Elicitation is one of the important factors in developing any new application. Most systems fail just because of wrong elicitation practice. As a result, developers always choose different methods in different fields to achieve optimal results. This paper analyses four cases to understand the effectiveness of different requirement elicitation methods in the field of mobile shopping applications. The elicitation methods we studied included interviews, questionnaires, prototypes, analysis of existing systems, focus groups, brainstorming, and so on. Through the research and analysis results, we ensured the need for a mixture of elicitation methods. Meanwhile, the method adopted should be determined according to the scale of the project and be operated in a reasonable order to ensure the high efficiency of requirement elicitation.

Keywords: requirements elicitation method, shopping, mobile application, software requirement engineering

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Authors: Sven Tackenberg, Sönke Duckwitz, Andreas Petz, Christopher M. Schlick

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This paper introduces an extension to the well-established Resource-Constrained Project Scheduling Problem (RCPSP) to apply it to complex maintenance problems. The problem is to assign technicians to a team which has to process several tasks with multi-level skill requirements during a work shift. Here, several alternative activities for a task allow both, the temporal shift of activities or the reallocation of technicians and tools. As a result, switches from one valid work process variant to another can be considered and may be selected by the developed evolutionary algorithm based on the present skill level of technicians or the available tools. An additional complication of the observed scheduling problem is that the locations of the construction sites are only temporarily accessible during a day. Due to intensive rail traffic, the available time slots for maintenance and repair works are extremely short and are often distributed throughout the day. To identify efficient working periods, a first concept of a Bayesian network is introduced and is integrated into the extended RCPSP with pre-emptive and non-pre-emptive tasks. Thereby, the Bayesian network is used to calculate the probability of a maintenance task to be processed during a specific period of the shift. Focusing on the domain of maintenance of the railway infrastructure in metropolitan areas as the most unproductive implementation process at construction site, the paper illustrates how the extended RCPSP can be applied for maintenance planning support. A multi-criteria evolutionary algorithm with a problem representation is introduced which is capable of revising technician-task allocations, whereas the duration of the task may be stochastic. The approach uses a novel activity list representation to ensure easily describable and modifiable elements which can be converted into detailed shift schedules. Thereby, the main objective is to develop a shift plan which maximizes the utilization of each technician due to a minimization of the waiting times caused by rail traffic. The results of the already implemented core algorithm illustrate a fast convergence towards an optimal team composition for a shift, an efficient sequence of tasks and a high probability of the subsequent implementation due to the stochastic durations of the tasks. In the paper, the algorithm for the extended RCPSP is analyzed in experimental evaluation using real-world example problems with various size, resource complexity, tightness and so forth.

Keywords: maintenance management, scheduling, resource constrained project scheduling problem, genetic algorithms

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Authors: Yuzhi Cai

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In this paper, we discuss a Bayesian approach to quantile autoregressive (QAR) time series model estimation and forecasting. Together with a combining forecasts technique, we then predict USD to GBP currency exchange rates. Combined forecasts contain all the information captured by the fitted QAR models at different quantile levels and are therefore better than those obtained from individual models. Our results show that an unequally weighted combining method performs better than other forecasting methodology. We found that a median AR model can perform well in point forecasting when the predictive density functions are symmetric. However, in practice, using the median AR model alone may involve the loss of information about the data captured by other QAR models. We recommend that combined forecasts should be used whenever possible.

Keywords: combining forecasts, MCMC, predictive density functions, quantile forecasting, quantile modelling

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Authors: Ping Jiang, Yunyan Xing, Dian Zhang, Bo Guo

Abstract:

The reliability qualification test (RQT) is widely used in product development to qualify whether the product meets predetermined reliability requirements, which are mainly described in terms of reliability indices, for example, MTBF (Mean Time Between Failures). It is widely exercised in product development. In engineering practices, RQT plans are mandatorily referred to standards, such as MIL-STD-781 or GJB899A-2009. But these conventional RQT plans in standards are not preferred, as the test plans often require long test times or have high risks for both producer and consumer due to the fact that the methods in the standards only use the test data of the product itself. And the standards usually assume that the product is exponentially distributed, which is not suitable for a complex product other than electronics. So it is desirable to develop an RQT plan derivation method that safely shortens test time while keeping the two risks under control. To meet this end, for the product whose lifetime follows Weibull distribution, an RQT plan derivation method is developed. The merit of the method is that expert judgment is taken into account. This is implemented by applying the Bayesian method, which translates the expert judgment into prior information on product reliability. Then producer’s risk and the consumer’s risk are calculated accordingly. The procedures to derive RQT plans are also proposed in this paper. As extra information and expert judgment are added to the derivation, the derived test plans have the potential to shorten the required test time and have satisfactory low risks for both producer and consumer, compared with conventional test plans. A case study is provided to prove that when using expert judgment in deriving product test plans, the proposed method is capable of finding ideal test plans that not only reduce the two risks but also shorten the required test time as well.

Keywords: expert judgment, reliability qualification test, test plan derivation, producer’s risk, consumer’s risk

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