Search results for: policy response

Authors: Mohammed Asiri, Saleh Alsuwayt, Mohammed Bin Mugren, Abdulmalik Almufarrih, Tariq Alotaibi, Saad Almodameg

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Background: End-stage renal disease is a major public health concern with high incidence and mortality rate. Most of ESRD patients are on hemodialysis therapy which is a long-term treatment that disturbs patients’ lifestyle. As a result, he will be susceptible to develop psychiatric disorders like anxiety that may direct him to non-compliance on physician instructions and hemodialysis therapy. Although there are studies conducted on psychiatric issues in hemodialysis patients, but few studies focused on the effect of anxiety disorder and the patient’s compliance. Hence, we are interested in determining the prevalence of anxiety disorder among hemodialysis patients in Saudi Arabia, as well as in defining the correlation between anxiety disorder and compliance on physician instructions and hemodialysis therapy. We hypothesize that our study will show a higher prevalence of anxiety in hemodialysis patients than in general population. Also, we expect the anxiety to have a negative impact on their compliance. Methodology: We used a cross-sectional study design carried out at dialysis unit of four major hospitals in Riyadh, KSA. We interviewed 235 End Stage Renal Disease male and female patients who are on hemodialysis. We divided the patients into two categories according to their compliance. we used modified general questionnaire to get their demographic data, then we used a psychometric response scale called visual analog scale (VAS) to assess patient’s compliance to hemodialysis and physician’s instructions. Also, we used the Arabic validated version of the hospital anxiety and depression scale (HAD scale) used mainly for anxiety assessment. Results: The overall response rate was 54%. Respondents included 147 (62.6%) males and 88 (37.4%) females. The prevalence of anxiety among hemodialysis patients is 13.3%. According to visual analog scale, we found that 189 compliant patients and 45 non-compliant patients. For HAD scale, the mean ± standard deviation of the total score for females was (4.44 ± 4.7) and it’s higher than males which was 2.65 ± 3.08 (P-value= 0.002). The mean ± standard deviation of HAD score in the non-compliant group was (5.88  4.88) and it was higher than the compliant group (2.7  3.32) (P-value= 0.004). Among non-complaint group, 33.3% of anxious patients were males and 66.6% were females. There was a negative correlation between HAD score of anxiety and visual analog scale (R= - 0.285). Conclusion: We conclude that there is a high prevalence of anxiety among patients with End Stage Renal Disease that was higher in females with association of non-compliance to physician’s instructions and hemodialysis therapy.

Keywords: anxiety, end-stage renal disease, renal failure, anxiety disorder

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Authors: E. Carraro, Sa. Bonetta, Si. Bonetta, E. Ceretti, G. C. V. Viola, C. Pignata, S. Levorato, T. Salvatori, S. Vannini, V. Romanazzi, A. Carducci, G. Donzelli, T. Schilirò, A. De Donno, T. Grassi, S. Bonizzoni, A. Bonetti, G. Gilli, U. Gelatti

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In 2013, air pollution and particulate matter were classified as carcinogenic to human by the IARC. At present, PM is Europe's most problematic pollutant in terms of harm to health, as reported by European Environmental Agency (EEA) in the EEA Technical Report on Air quality in Europe, 2015. A percentage between 17-30 of the EU urban population lives in areas where the EU air quality 24-hour limit value for PM10 is exceeded. Many studies have found a consistent association between exposure to PM and the incidence and mortality for some chronic diseases (i.e. lung cancer, cardiovascular diseases). Among the mechanisms responsible for these adverse effects, genotoxic damage is of particular concern. Children are a high-risk group in terms of the health effects of air pollution and early exposure during childhood can increase the risk of developing chronic diseases in adulthood. The MAPEC_LIFE (Monitoring Air Pollution Effects on Children for supporting public health policy) is a project founded by EU Life+ Programme (LIFE12 ENV/IT/000614) which intends to evaluate the associations between air pollution and early biological effects in children and to propose a model for estimating the global risk of early biological effects due to air pollutants and other factors in children. This work is focused on the micronuclei frequency in child buccal cells in association with airborne PM levels taking into account the influence of other factors associated with the lifestyle of children. The micronucleus test was performed in exfoliated buccal cells of 6–8 years old children from 5 Italian towns with different air pollution levels. Data on air quality during the study period were obtained from the Regional Agency for Environmental Protection. A questionnaire administered to children’s parents was used to obtain details on family socio-economic status, children health condition, exposures to other indoor and outdoor pollutants (i.e. passive smoke) and life-style, with particular reference to eating habits. During the first sampling campaign (winter 2014-15) 1315 children were recruited and sampled for Micronuclei test in buccal cells. In the sampling period the levels of the main pollutants and PM10 were, as expected, higher in the North of Italy (PM10 mean values 62 μg/m3 in Torino and 40 μg/m3 in Brescia) than in the other towns (Pisa, Perugia, Lecce). A higher Micronucleus frequency in buccal cells of children was found in Brescia (0.6/1000 cells) than in the other towns (range 0.3-0.5/1000 cells). The statistical analysis underlines a relation of the micronuclei frequency with PM concentrations, traffic level near child residence, and level of education of parents. The results suggest that, in addition to air pollution exposure, some other factors, related to lifestyle or further exposures, may influence micronucleus frequency and cellular response to air pollutants.

Keywords: air pollution, buccal cells, children, micronucleus cytome assay

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Authors: Amal E. Ahmed, Levent Trabzon

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Due to the low concentration of the analytes in biological samples, the use of Biological Microelectromechanical System (Bio-MEMS) biosensors for biomolecules detection results in a minuscule output signal that is not good enough for practical applications. In response to this, a need has arisen for an optimized biosensor capable of giving high output signal in response the detection of few analytes in the sample; the ultimate goal is being able to convert the attachment of a single biomolecule into a measurable quantity. For this purpose, MEMS microcantilevers based biosensors emerged as a promising sensing solution because it is simple, cheap, very sensitive and more importantly does not need analytes optical labeling (Label-free). Among the different microcantilever transducing techniques, piezoresistive based microcantilever biosensors became more prominent because it works well in liquid environments and has an integrated readout system. However, the design of piezoresistive microcantilevers is not a straightforward problem due to coupling between the design parameters, constraints, process conditions, and performance. It was found that the parameters that can be optimized to enhance the sensitivity of Piezoresistive microcantilever-based sensors are: cantilever dimensions, cantilever material, cantilever shape, piezoresistor material, piezoresistor doping level, piezoresistor dimensions, piezoresistor position, Stress Concentration Region's (SCR) shape and position. After a systematic analyzation of the effect of each design and process parameters on the sensitivity, a step-wise optimization approach was developed in which almost all these parameters were variated one at each step while fixing the others to get the maximum possible sensitivity at the end. At each step, the goal was to optimize the parameter in a way that it maximizes and concentrates the stress in the piezoresistor region for the same applied force thus get the higher sensitivity. Using this approach, an optimized sensor that has 73.5x times higher electrical sensitivity (ΔR⁄R) than the starting sensor was obtained. In addition to that, this piezoresistive microcantilever biosensor it is more sensitive than the other similar sensors previously reported in the open literature. The mechanical sensitivity of the final senior is -1.5×10-8 Ω/Ω ⁄pN; which means that for each 1pN (10-10 g) biomolecules attach to this biosensor; the piezoresistor resistivity will decrease by 1.5×10-8 Ω. Throughout this work COMSOL Multiphysics 5.0, a commercial Finite Element Analysis (FEA) tool, has been used to simulate the sensor performance.

Keywords: biosensor, microcantilever, piezoresistive, stress concentration region (SCR)

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Authors: Gema Gómez-Casado, Alba Rodríguez-Muñoz, Virginia Mela-Rivas, Pallavi Kompella, Francisco José Tinahones-Madueña, Isabel Moreno-Indias, Almudena Ortega-Gómez

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Obesity is a high-priority health problem worldwide due to its high prevalence. The proportion of obese and overweight subjects in industrialized countries exceeds half of the population in most cases. Beyond the metabolic problem, obesity boosts inflammation levels in the organism. The gut microbiota, considered an organ by itself, controls a high variety of processes at a systemic level. In fact, the microbiota interacts closely with the immune system, being crucial in determining the maturation state of neutrophils, key effectors of the innate immune response. It is known that changes in the diet exert strong effects on the variety and activity of the gut microbiota. The effect that those changes have on the axis microbiota-immune response is an unexplored field. In this study, 10 patients with obesity (weight 114,3 ± 14,5Kg, BMI 40,47±3,66) followed a Mediterranean-hypocaloric diet for 3 months, reducing their initial weight by 12,71 ± 3%. A transplant of microbiota from these patients before and after the diet was performed into wild type “germ-free” mice (n=10/group), treated with antibiotics. Six weeks after the transplant, mice were euthanized, and the presence of cells from the innate immune system were analysed in different organs (bone marrow, blood, spleen, visceral adipose tissue, and intestine) by flow cytometry. No differences were observed in the number of myeloid cells in bone marrow, blood, spleen, or visceral adipose tissue of mice transplanted with patient’s microbiota before and after following the Mediterranean diet. However, the intestine of mice that received post-diet microbiota presented a marked decrease in the number of neutrophils (whose presence is associated with tissue inflammation), as well as macrophages. In line with these findings, intestine monocytes from mice with post-diet microbiota showed a less inflammatory profile (lower Ly6Gˡᵒʷ proportion of cells). These results point toward a decrease in the inflammatory state of the intestinal tissue, derived from changes in the gut microbiota, which occurred after a 3-month Mediterranean diet.

Keywords: obesity, nutrition, Mediterranean diet, gut microbiota, immune system

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Authors: Kanogkan Leerojanaprapa

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Textile and garment industry is used to a major exporting industry of Thailand. According to lacking of the nation's price-competitiveness by stopping the EU's GSP (Generalised Scheme of Preferences) and ‘Nationwide Minimum Wage Policy’ that Thailand’s employers must pay all employees at least 300 baht (about $10) a day, the supply chains of the Thai textile and garment industry is affected and need to be reformed. Therefore, either Thai textile or garment industry will be existed or not would be concerned. This is also challenged for the government to decide which industries should be promoted the future industries of Thailand. Recently Thai government launch The Cluster-based Special Economic Development Zones Policy for promoting business cluster (effect on September 16, 2015). They define a cluster as the concentration of interconnected businesses and related institutions that operate within the same geographic areas and textiles and garment is one of target industrial clusters and 9 provinces are targeted (Bangkok, Kanchanaburi, Nakhon Pathom, Ratchaburi, Samut Sakhon, Chonburi, Chachoengsao, Prachinburi, and Sa Kaeo). The cluster zone are defined to link west-east corridor connected to manufacturing source in Cambodia and Mynmar to Bangkok where are promoted to be design, sourcing, and trading hub. The Thai government will provide tax and non-tax incentives for targeted industries within the clusters and expects these businesses are scattered to where they can get the most benefit which will identify future industrial cluster. This research will show the difference between the current cluster and future cluster following the target provinces of the textile and garment. The current cluster is analysed from secondary data. The four characteristics of the numbers of plants in Spinning, weaving and finishing of textiles, Manufacture of made-up textile articles, except apparel, Manufacture of knitted and crocheted fabrics, and Manufacture of other textiles, not elsewhere classified in particular 77 provinces (in total) are clustered by K-means cluster analysis and Hierarchical Cluster Analysis. In addition, the cluster can be confirmed and showed which variables contribute the most to defined cluster solution with ANOVA test. The results of analysis can identify 22 provinces (which the textile or garment plants are located) into 3 clusters. Plants in cluster 1 tend to be large numbers of plants which is only Bangkok, Next plants in cluster 2 tend to be moderate numbers of plants which are Samut Prakan, Samut Sakhon and Nakhon Pathom. Finally plants in cluster 3 tend to be little numbers of plants which are other 18 provinces. The same methodology can be implemented in other industries for future study.

Keywords: ANOVA, hierarchical cluster analysis, industrial clusters, K -means cluster analysis, textile and garment industry

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Authors: Jun-Ho Chung, Sung-Hyun Yoo, In-Hwan Choi, Hyun-Kook Lee, Moon-Kyu Song, Choon-Ki Ahn

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The extended finite impulse response (EFIR) filter is addressed to optimize membership functions (MFs) of the fuzzy model that has strong nonlinearity. MFs are important parts of the fuzzy logic system (FLS) and, thus optimizing MFs of FLS is one of approaches to improve the performance of output. We employ the EFIR as an alternative optimization option to nonlinear fuzzy model. The performance of EFIR is demonstrated on a fuzzy cruise control via a numerical example.

Keywords: fuzzy logic system, optimization, membership function, extended FIR filter

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Authors: F. Fekak, A. Gravouil, M. Brun, B. Depale

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During an earthquake, a bridge crane may be subjected to multiple impacts between crane wheels and rail. In order to model such phenomena, a time-history dynamic analysis with a multi-scale approach is performed. The high frequency aspect of the impacts between wheels and rails is taken into account by a Lagrange explicit event-capturing algorithm based on a velocity-impulse formulation to resolve contacts and impacts. An implicit temporal scheme is used for the rest of the structure. The numerical coupling between the implicit and the explicit schemes is achieved with a heterogeneous asynchronous time-integrator.

Keywords: bridge crane, earthquake, dynamic analysis, explicit, implicit, impact

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Authors: Stephanie Yun Yu Law

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Background: This study aims to investigate into communication between trainee doctors and patients, especially how doctor’s reaction to patient’s emotional issues expressed in the consultation affect patient’s satisfaction. Objectives: Thus, there are three aims in this study, 1.) how do trainee doctors react to patients emotional cues in OSCE station? 2.) Any differences in the respond type to emotional cues between first year students and third year students? 3.) Is response type (reducing space) related to OSCE outcome (patient satisfaction and expert rating)? Methods: Fifteen OSCE stations was videotaped, in which 9 were stations with first-year students and 6 were with third-year students. OSCE outcomes were measured by Communication Assessment Tool and Examiners Checklist. Analyses: All patient’s cues/concerns and student’s reaction were coded by Verona Coding Definitions of Emotional Sequence. Descriptive data was gathered from Observer XT and logistic regression (two-level) was carried out to see if occurrence of reducing space response can be predicted by OSCE outcomes. Results: Reducing space responses from all students were slightly less than a half in total responses to patient’s cues. The mean percentage of reducing space behaviours was lower among first year students when compared to third year students. Patient’s satisfaction significantly (p<0.05) and negatively predicted reducing space behaviours. Conclusions: Most of the medical students, to some extent, did not provide adequate responses for patient’s emotional cues. But first year students did provide more space for patients to talk about their emotional issues when compared to third year students. Lastly, patients would feel less satisfied if trainee doctors use more reducing space responses in reaction to patient’s expressed emotional cues/concerns. Practical implications: Firstly, medical training programme can be tailored on teaching students how to detect and respond appropriately to emotional cues in order to improve underperformed student’s communication skills in healthcare setting. Furthermore, trainee doctor’s relationship with patients in clinical practice can also be improved by reacting appropriately to patient’s emotive cues in consultations (such as limit the use of reducing space behaviours).

Keywords: doctors-patients communication, applied clinical psychology, health psychology, healthcare professionals

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Authors: Dinesh Gundavaram

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This paper presents an investigation on bridge damage detection based on the dynamic responses estimated from a passing vehicle. A numerical simulation of steel truss bridge for railway was used in this investigation. The bridge response at different locations is measured using CSI-Bridge software. Several damage scenarios are considered including different locations and severities. The possibilities of dynamic properties of global modes in the identification of structural changes in truss bridges were discussed based on the results of measurement.

Keywords: bridge, damage, dynamic responses, detection

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Authors: Alphonso Augustine Goliath

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In 1997 South Africa adopted legislation introducing severe mandatory minimum sentences. This was a political response to counter the escalating violent crime the country experienced when it transitioned to democracy. Despite minimum sentences being fully operational for more than two decades, violent crimes like murder and rape have not abated. This paper provides a critique of the efficacy of minimums sentences with a primary focus on the legislation’s main aim of preventing or curbing crime, its relationship with prison overcrowding, and its continued constitutionality.

Keywords: constitutionality, deterrence, incapacitation, minimum sentencing legislation, prison overcrowding, rehabilitation, recidivism, retribution, violent crime

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Authors: Mark McKeown

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Press articles opining on how China has become the West’s biggest threat have become so common as to feel like old news. Since the United States shifted diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to the People’s Republic of China in 1979 the relationship between the world’s two largest economies has been at best a brittle one. This coiled tension has grown as trade between the two countries snaked ever upwards. As a byproduct of globalization Apple have focused much of their production and assembly in China. This has left the U.S. Big Tech company with several challenges. This paper focusses on the tightrope Apple now has to traverse. The majority of the data and analysis within this paper is sourced from my current ongoing PhD research on the influence of Big Tech lobbying on U.S. foreign policy. One of the main conclusions from this analysis is Apple has to adopt a carefully nuanced strategy of appeasement to avoid friction, with both the governments of China and the United States.

Keywords: apple, China, Taiwan, war

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Authors: Linyao Qiu, Zhiqiang Du

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As the rapid development of urbanization, economic developments, and steady population growth in China, the widespread devastation, economic damages, and loss of human lives caused by numerous forms of natural disasters are becoming increasingly serious every year. Disaster management requires available and effective cooperation of different roles and organizations in whole process including mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery. Due to the imbalance of regional development in China, the disaster management capabilities of national and provincial disaster reduction centers are uneven. When an undeveloped area suffers from disaster, neither local reduction department could get first-hand information like high-resolution remote sensing images from satellites and aircrafts independently, nor sharing mechanism is provided for the department to access to data resources deployed in other place directly. Most existing disaster management systems operate in a typical passive data-centric mode and work for single department, where resources cannot be fully shared. The impediment blocks local department and group from quick emergency response and decision-making. In this paper, we introduce a collaborative platform for distributed disaster reduction. To address the issues of imbalance of sharing data sources and technology in the process of disaster reduction, we propose a multi-role oriented collaboration business mechanism, which is capable of scheduling and allocating for optimum utilization of multiple resources, to link various roles for collaborative reduction business in different place. The platform fully considers the difference of equipment conditions in different provinces and provide several service modes to satisfy technology need in disaster reduction. An integrated collaboration system based on focusing services mechanism is designed and implemented for resource scheduling, functional integration, data processing, task management, collaborative mapping, and visualization. Actual applications illustrate that the platform can well support data sharing and business collaboration between national and provincial department. It could significantly improve the capability of disaster reduction in China.

Keywords: business collaboration, data sharing, distributed disaster reduction, focusing service

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Authors: Bashir Aliyu Yauri, Rufai Aliyu Yauri

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With the introduction of cash-less society policy by the Central Bank of Nigeria, the concept of e-banking services has experienced a significant improvement over the years. Today quite a number of people are embracing e-banking activities especially ATM, thereby moving away from the conventional banking system. This paper presents a review of the underlying Architectural Layout of Intra-Bank and Inter-Bank ATM connectivity in Nigeria. The paper further investigates and discusses factors affecting the Intra-Bank and Inter-Bank ATM connectivity in Nigeria. And as well possible solutions to these factors affecting ATM Connectivity and Operations are proposed.

Keywords: architectural layout, automated teller machine, e-services, postilion

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Authors: Meetty Tomy, Arxhana G Thosar

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This paper provides the implementation of optimal control for an armature-controlled DC motor. The selection of error weighted Matrix and control weighted matrix in order to implement optimal control theory for improving the dynamic behavior of DC motor is presented. The closed loop performance of Armature controlled DC motor with derived linear optimal controller is then evaluated for the transient operating condition (starting). The result obtained from MATLAB is compared with that of PID controller and simple closed loop response of the motor.

Keywords: optimal control, DC motor, performance index, MATLAB

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Authors: Djehich Mohamed Yousri

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In this research paper, the future of international relations is believed to have an important place on the theoretical and applied levels because policy makers in the world are in dire need of such analyzes that are useful in drawing up the foreign policies of their countries, and protecting their national security from potential future threats, and in this context, The topic raised a lot of scientific controversy and intellectual debate, especially in terms of the extent of the effectiveness, accuracy, and ability of foresight methods to identify potential futures, and this is what attributed the controversy to the scientific foundations for foreseeing international relations. An arena for intellectual discussion between different thinkers in international relations belonging to different theoretical schools, which confirms to us the conceptual and implied development of prediction in order to reach the scientific level.

Keywords: foresight, forecasting, international relations, international relations theory, concept of international relations

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Authors: Jonas Kahlert

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Blockchain technology has gained importance and momentum in the energy sector. Yet, there is no structured analysis of how specific features of the blockchain technology can create value in the energy sector. We employ a qualitative analysis on insights gained from the current literature and expert interviews. Along the four most prevalent use cases of blockchain technology in the energy sector, we discuss the potential of blockchain technology to support a transition to a more affordable, sustainable and reliable energy system. We show that in its current state, blockchain and adjacent technologies are not a necessity but a sufficiency towards this transition. We also show how current limitations of the blockchain and adjacent technologies can be even counterproductive. Finally, we discuss implications for policy makers and managers.

Keywords: blockchain technology, affordance theory, energy trilemma, sustainability

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Authors: Yari Vecchio, Margherita Masi, Jorgelina Di Pasquale

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Adoption of Precision Agriculture (PA) is involved in a multidimensional and complex scenario. The process of adopting innovations is complex and social inherently, influenced by other producers, change agents, social norms and organizational pressure. Complexity depends on factors that interact and influence the decision to adopt. Farm and operator characteristics, as well as organizational, informational and agro-ecological context directly affect adoption. This influence has been studied to measure drivers and to clarify 'bottlenecks' of the adoption of agricultural innovation. Making decision process involves a multistage procedure, in which individual passes from first hearing about the technology to final adoption. Awareness is the initial stage and represents the moment in which an individual learns about the existence of the technology. 'Static' concept of adoption has been overcome. Awareness is a precondition to adoption. This condition leads to not encountering some erroneous evaluations, arose from having carried out analysis on a population that is only in part aware of technologies. In support of this, the present study puts forward an empirical analysis among Italian farmers, considering awareness as a prerequisite for adoption. The purpose of the present work is to analyze both factors that affect the probability to adopt and determinants that drive an aware individual to not adopt. Data were collected through a questionnaire submitted in November 2017. A preliminary descriptive analysis has shown that high levels of adoption have been found among younger farmers, better educated, with high intensity of information, with large farm size and high labor-intensive, and whose perception of the complexity of adoption process is lower. The use of a logit model permits to appreciate the weight played by the intensity of labor and complexity perceived by the potential adopter in PA adoption process. All these findings suggest important policy implications: measures dedicated to promoting innovation will need to be more specific for each phase of this adoption process. Specifically, they should increase awareness of PA tools and foster dissemination of information to reduce the degree of perceived complexity of the adoption process. These implications are particularly important in Europe where is pre-announced the reform of Common Agricultural Policy, oriented to innovation. In this context, these implications suggest to the measures supporting innovation to consider the relationship between various organizational and structural dimensions of European agriculture and innovation approaches.

Keywords: adoption, awareness, complexity, precision agriculture

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Authors: Selin Guney, Andres Riquelme

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Among the main purposes of optimal and efficient forecasts of agricultural commodity prices is to guide the firms to advance the economic decision making process such as planning business operations and marketing decisions. Governments are also the beneficiaries and suppliers of agricultural price forecasts. They use this information to establish a proper agricultural policy, and hence, the forecasts affect social welfare and systematic errors in forecasts could lead to a misallocation of scarce resources. Various empirical approaches have been applied to forecast commodity prices that have used different methodologies. Most commonly-used approaches to forecast commodity sectors depend on classical time series models that assume values of the response variables are precise which is quite often not true in reality. Recently, this literature has mostly evolved to a consideration of fuzzy time series models that provide more flexibility in terms of the classical time series models assumptions such as stationarity, and large sample size requirement. Besides, fuzzy modeling approach allows decision making with estimated values under incomplete information or uncertainty. A number of fuzzy time series models have been developed and implemented over the last decades; however, most of them are not appropriate for forecasting repeated and nonconsecutive transitions in the data. The modeling scheme used in this paper eliminates this problem by introducing Markov modeling approach that takes into account both the repeated and nonconsecutive transitions. Also, the determination of length of interval is crucial in terms of the accuracy of forecasts. The problem of determining the length of interval arbitrarily is overcome and a methodology to determine the proper length of interval based on the distribution or mean of the first differences of series to improve forecast accuracy is proposed. The specific purpose of this paper is to propose and investigate the potential of a new forecasting model that integrates methodologies for determining the proper length of interval based on the distribution or mean of the first differences of series and Fuzzy Time Series- Markov Chain model. Moreover, the accuracy of the forecasting performance of proposed integrated model is compared to different univariate time series models and the superiority of proposed method over competing methods in respect of modelling and forecasting on the basis of forecast evaluation criteria is demonstrated. The application is to daily corn and soybean prices observed at three commercially important North Carolina markets; Candor, Cofield and Roaring River for corn and Fayetteville, Cofield and Greenville City for soybeans respectively. One main conclusion from this paper is that using fuzzy logic improves the forecast performance and accuracy; the effectiveness and potential benefits of the proposed model is confirmed with small selection criteria value such MAPE. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of integrating fuzzy logic and nonarbitrary determination of length of interval for the reliability and accuracy of price forecasts. The empirical results represent a significant contribution to our understanding of the applicability of fuzzy modeling in commodity price forecasts.

Keywords: commodity, forecast, fuzzy, Markov

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Authors: Matt Stichter

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Moral development requires learning from one’s failures, but that turnsout to be especially challenging when dealing with moral failures. The distress prompted by moral failure can cause responses ofdefensiveness or disengagement rather than attempts to make amends and work on self-change. The most potentially distressing response to moral failure is a shame. However, there appears to be two different senses of “shame” that are conflated in the literature, depending on whether the failure is appraised as the result of a global and unalterable self-defect, or a local and alterable self-defect. One of these forms of shame does prompt self-improvement in response to moral failure. This occurs if one views the failure as indicating only a specific (local) defect in one’s identity, where that’s something repairable, rather than asanoverall(orglobal)defectinyouridentity that can’t be fixed. So, if the whole of one’s identity as a morally good person isn’t being called into question, but only a part, then that is something one could work on to improve. Shame, in this sense, provides motivation for self-improvement to fix this part oftheselfinthe long run, and this would be important for moral development. One factor that looks to affect these different self-attributions in the wake of moral failure can be found in mindset theory, as reactions to moral failure in these two forms of shame are similar to how those with a fixed or growth mindset of their own abilities, such as intelligence, react to failure. People fall along a continuum with respect to how they view abilities – it is more of a fixed entity that you cannot do much to change, or it is malleable such that you can train to improve it. These two mindsets, ‘fixed’ versus ‘growth’, have different consequences for how we react to failure – a fixed mindset leads to maladaptive responses because of feelings of helplessness to do better; whereas a growth mindset leads to adaptive responses where a person puts forth effort to learn how to act better the next time. Here we can see the parallels between a fixed mindset of one’s own (im)morality, as the way people respond to shame when viewed as indicating a global and unalterable self-defect parallels the reactions people have to failure when they have a fixed mindset. In addition, it looks like there may be a similar structure to pride. Pride is, like shame, a self-conscious emotion that arises from internal attributions about the self as being the cause of some event. There are also paradoxical results from research on pride, where pride was found to motivate pro-social behavior in some cases but aggression in other cases. Research suggests that there may be two forms of pride, authentic and hubristic, that are also connected to different self-attributions, depending on whether one is feeling proud about a particular (local) aspect of the self versus feeling proud about the whole of oneself (global).

Keywords: emotion, mindset, moral development, moral psychology, pride, shame, self-regulation

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Authors: Hema Vanita Kesevan

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This study investigated the impact of teacher’s language ideology on their classroom discursive practice in ESL / EFL classrooms. It examines teachers’ perceptions of the use of local variety of Malaysian English in the classroom. The investigation shows that although teachers and students are against its use in the classroom, it is widely employed. The participants of this study consist of two Malaysian non-native English teachers with different linguistic and cultural backgrounds. This study employs a comparative case study approach which focuses on the teachers and their classroom discourse practice. There are two modes of inquiry used in this study: classroom observation and semi-guided interviews. The findings are of interest to ESL / EFL teachers, policy makers and language researchers in the Malaysian and other similar ESL / EFL contexts.

Keywords: language ideology, Malaysian English, native teachers, non-native teachers

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Authors: Stephen Verderber

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The World Health Organization (WHO) calls for research and development on ecologically sustainable, resilient structures capable of effectively responding to disaster events globally, in response to climate change, politically based diasporas, earthquakes, and other adverse events upending the rhythms of everyday life globally. By 2050, nearly 80% of the world’s population will reside in coastal zones, and this, coupled with the increasingly dire impacts of climate change, constitute a recipe for further chaos and disruption, and in light of these events, architects have yet to rise up to meet the challenge. In the arena of healthcare, rapidly deployable clinics and field hospitals can provide immediate assistance in medically underserved disaster strike zones. Transportable facilities offer multiple advantages over conventional, fixed-site hospitals, as lightweight, comparatively unencumbered alternatives. These attributes have been proven repeatedly in 20th century vehicular and tent-based structures deployed in frontline combat theaters and in prior natural disasters. Prefab transportable clinics and trauma centers recently responded adroitly to medical emergencies in the aftermath of the Haitian (2010) and Ecuadorian (2016) earthquakes, and in North American post-hurricane relief efforts (2017) while architects continue to be castigated by their engineer colleagues as chronically poor first responders. Architecturally based portable structures for healthcare currently include Redeployable Health Centers (RHCs), Redeployable Trauma Centers (RTCs), and Permanent Modular Installations (PMIs). Five tectonic variants within this typology have recently been operationalized in the field: 1. Vehicular-based Nomadics: Prefab modules installed on a truck chassis with interior compartments dropped in prior to final assembly. Alternately, a two-component apparatus is preferred, with a truck cab pulling a modular medical unit, with independent transiting component; 2. Tent and Pneumatic Systems: Tent/yurt precursors and inflatable systems lightweight and responsive to topographically challenging terrain and diverse climates; 3. Containerized Systems: The standard modular intermodal-shipping container affords structural strength, resiliency in difficult transiting conditions, and can be densely close-packed and these can be custom-built or hold flat-pack systems; 4. Flat-Packs and Pop-Up Systems: These kit-of-part assemblies are shipped in standardized or specially-designed ISO containers; and 5. Hybrid Systems: These consist of composite facilities representing a synthesis of mobile vehicular components and/or tent or shipping containers, fused with conventional or pneumatically activated tent systems. Hybrids are advantageous in many installation contexts from an aesthetic, fabrication, and transiting perspective. Advantages/disadvantages of various modular systems are comparatively examined, followed by presentation of a compendium of 80 evidence (research)-based planning and design considerations addressing site/context, transiting and commissioning, triage, decontamination/intake, diagnostic and treatment, facility tectonics, and administration/total environment. The benefits of offsite pre-manufactured fabrication are examined, as is anticipated growth in international demand for transportable healthcare facilities to meet the challenges posed by accelerating global climate change and global conflicts. This investigation into rapid response facilities for pre and post-disaster zones is drawn from a recent book by the author, the first on architecture on this topic (Innovations in Transportable Healthcare Architecture).

Keywords: disaster mitigation, rapid response healthcare architecture, offsite prefabrication

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Authors: Meiyan Gao, Zongmin Wang, Haibo Yang, Qiuhua Liang

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Under the background of global climate change and rapid development of modern urbanization, the frequency of climate disasters such as extreme precipitation in cities around the world is gradually increasing. In this paper, Hi-PIMS model is used to simulate the "720" flood in Zhengzhou, and the continuous stages of flood resilience are determined with the urban flood stages are divided. The flood resilience curve under the influence of multiple factors were determined and the urban flood toughness was evaluated by combining the results of resilience curves. The flood resilience of urban unit grid was evaluated based on economy, population, road network, hospital distribution and land use type. Firstly, the rainfall data of meteorological stations near Zhengzhou and the remote sensing rainfall data from July 17 to 22, 2021 were collected. The Kriging interpolation method was used to expand the rainfall data of Zhengzhou. According to the rainfall data, the flood process generated by four rainfall events in Zhengzhou was reproduced. Based on the results of the inundation range and inundation depth in different areas, the flood process was divided into four stages: absorption, resistance, overload and recovery based on the once in 50 years rainfall standard. At the same time, based on the levels of slope, GDP, population, hospital affected area, land use type, road network density and other aspects, the resilience curve was applied to evaluate the urban flood resilience of different regional units, and the difference of flood process of different precipitation in "720" rainstorm in Zhengzhou was analyzed. Faced with more than 1,000 years of rainstorm, most areas are quickly entering the stage of overload. The influence levels of factors in different areas are different, some areas with ramps or higher terrain have better resilience, and restore normal social order faster, that is, the recovery stage needs shorter time. Some low-lying areas or special terrain, such as tunnels, will enter the overload stage faster in the case of heavy rainfall. As a result, high levels of flood protection, water level warning systems and faster emergency response are needed in areas with low resilience and high risk. The building density of built-up area, population of densely populated area and road network density all have a certain negative impact on urban flood resistance, and the positive impact of slope on flood resilience is also very obvious. While hospitals can have positive effects on medical treatment, they also have negative effects such as population density and asset density when they encounter floods. The result of a separate comparison of the unit grid of hospitals shows that the resilience of hospitals in the distribution range is low when they encounter floods. Therefore, in addition to improving the flood resistance capacity of cities, through reasonable planning can also increase the flood response capacity of cities. Changes in these influencing factors can further improve urban flood resilience, such as raise design standards and the temporary water storage area when floods occur, train the response speed of emergency personnel and adjust emergency support equipment.

Keywords: urban flood resilience, resilience assessment, hydrodynamic model, resilience curve

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Authors: Zeineb Baatout, Safa Teka, Nejmeddine Jaballah, Nawfel Sakly, Xiaonan Sun, Mustapha Majdoub

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Currently, the economic interests linked to the development of bio-based materials make biomass one of the most interesting areas for science development. We are interested in the β-cyclodextrin (β-CD), one of the popular bio-sourced macromolecule, produced from the starch via enzymatic conversion. It is a cyclic oligosaccharide formed by the association of seven glucose units. It presents a rigid conical and amphiphilic structure with hydrophilic exterior, allowing it to be water-soluble. It has also a hydrophobic interior enabling the formation of inclusion complexes, which support its application for the elaboration of electrochemical and optical sensors. Nevertheless, the solubility of β-CD in water makes its use as sensitive layer limit and difficult due to their instability in aqueous media. To overcome this limitation, we chose to precede by modification of the hydroxyl groups to obtain hydrophobic derivatives which lead to water-stable sensing layers. Hence, a series of benzylated β-CDs were synthesized in basic aqueous media in one pot. This work reports the synthesis of a new family of substituted amphiphilic β-CDs using a green methodology. The obtained β-CDs showed different degree of substitution (DS) between 0.85 and 2.03. These organic macromolecular materials were soluble in common organic volatile solvents, and their structures were investigated by NMR, FT-IR and MALDI-TOF spectroscopies. Thermal analysis showed a correlation between the thermal properties of these derivatives and the benzylation degree. The surface properties of the thin films based on the benzylated β-CDs were characterized by contact angle measurements and atomic force microscopy (AFM). These organic materials were investigated as sensitive layers, deposited on quartz crystal microbalance (QCM) gravimetric transducer, for humidity sensor at room temperature. The results showed that the performances of the prepared sensors are greatly influenced by the benzylation degree of β-CD. The partially modified β-CD (DS=1) shows linear response with best sensitivity, good reproducibility, low hysteresis, fast response time (15s) and recovery time (17s) at higher relative humidity levels (RH) between 11% and 98% in room temperature.

Keywords: β-cyclodextrin, green synthesis, humidity sensor, quartz crystal microbalance

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Authors: Amal G. Kurian

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The use of mathematical modeling has seen a considerable boost in recent times with the development of many advanced algorithms and mathematical modeling capabilities. The advantages this method has over other methods are that they are much closer to standard physics theories and thus represent a better theoretical model. They take lesser solving time and have the ability to change various parameters for optimization, which is a big advantage, especially in automotive industry. This thesis work focuses on a thorough investigation of the effects of vehicle speed and road roughness on a heavy commercial vehicle ride and structural dynamic responses. Since commercial vehicles are kept in operation continuously for longer periods of time, it is important to study effects of various physical conditions on the vehicle and its user. For this purpose, various experimental as well as simulation methodologies, are adopted ranging from experimental transfer path analysis to various road scenario simulations. To effectively investigate and eliminate several causes of unwanted responses, an efficient and robust technique is needed. Carrying forward this motivation, the present work focuses on the development of a mathematical model of a 4-axle configuration heavy commercial vehicle (HCV) capable of calculating responses of the vehicle on different road PSD inputs and vehicle speeds. Outputs from the model will include response transfer functions and PSDs and wheel forces experienced. A MATLAB code will be developed to implement the objectives in a robust and flexible manner which can be exploited further in a study of responses due to various suspension parameters, loading conditions as well as vehicle dimensions. The thesis work resulted in quantifying the effect of various physical conditions on ride comfort of the vehicle. An increase in discomfort is seen with velocity increase; also the effect of road profiles has a considerable effect on comfort of the driver. Details of dominant modes at each frequency are analysed and mentioned in work. The reduction in ride height or deflection of tire and suspension with loading along with load on each axle is analysed and it is seen that the front axle supports a greater portion of vehicle weight while more of payload weight comes on fourth and third axles. The deflection of the vehicle is seen to be well inside acceptable limits.

Keywords: mathematical modeling, HCV, suspension, ride analysis

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Authors: Alina Beraudi, Simona Catalani, Dalila De Pasquale, Eva Bianconi, Umberto Santoro, Susanna Stea, Pietro Apostoli

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Recently the European Community, in line with the international scientific community such as with the Consensus Statement, has determined to stop the use of metal-on-metal big head stemmed hip prosthesis. Among the factors accounted as responsible for the high failure rates of these hip implants are the release and accumulation of metal ions. Many studies have correlated the presence of these ions, besides other factors, with the induction of oxidative stress response. In our study on 12 subjects, we observed the patient specific capability to eliminate metal ions after revision surgery. While for cobalt all the patients were able to completely excrete cobalt ions within 5-7 months after metal-on-metal bearing removal, for chromium ions it didn’t happen. If on the one hand the toxicokinetic differences between the two types of ions are confirmed by toxicological and occupational studies, on the other hand, this peculiar way of exposition represents a novel and important point of view. Thus, two different approaches were performed to better understand the subject specific capability to transport metal ions (albumin study) and to manage the response to them (heme-oxygenase-1 study): - a mutational screening of ALBUMIN gene was conducted in 30 MoM prosthetic patients resulting in the absence of nucleotidic changes compared with the ALB reference sequence. To this study was also added the analysis of expression of modified albumin protein; - a gene and protein expression study on 44 patients of heme-oxygenase-1, that is one of the most important antioxidant enzyme induced by metallic ions, was performed. This study resulted in no statistically significant differences in the expression of the gene and protein heme-oxygenase-1 between prosthetic and non-prosthetic patients, as well as between patients with high and low ions levels. Our results show that the protein studied (albumin and heme-oxygenase-1) seem to be not involved in determining chromium and cobalt ions level. On the other hand, achromium and cobalt elimination rates are different, but similar in all patients analyzed, suggesting that this process could be not patient-related. We support the importance of researching more about ions transport within the organism once released by hip prosthesis, about the chemical species involved, the districts where they are contained and the mechanisms of elimination, not excluding the existence of a subjective susceptibility to these metals ions.

Keywords: chromium, cobalt, hip prosthesis, individual susceptibility

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Authors: Seyedahmad Hosseini, Mohammadjavad Sotoudeheian

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Introduction: Allergic asthma is a heterogeneous immuno-inflammatory disease based on Th-2-mediated inflammation. Histopathologic abnormalities of the airways characteristic of asthma include epithelial damage and subepithelial collagen deposition. Objectives: Human bronchial epithelial cell genome expression of TNF‑α, IL‑6, ICAM‑1, VCAM‑1, nuclear factor (NF)‑κB signaling pathways up-regulate during inflammatory cascades. Moreover, immunofluorescence assays confirmed the nuclear translocation of NF‑κB p65 during inflammatory responses. An absolute LDH leakage assays suggestedLPS-inducedcells injury, and the associated mechanisms are co-incident events. LPS-induced phosphorylation of ERKand JNK causes inflammation in epithelial cells through inhibition of ERK and JNK activation and NF-κB signaling pathway. Furthermore, the inhibition of NF-κB mRNA expression and the nuclear translocation of NF-κB lead to anti-inflammatory events. Likewise, activation of SUMF2 which inhibits IL-13 and reduces Th2-cytokines, NF-κB, and IgE levels to ameliorate asthma. On the other hand, TNFα-induced mucus production reduced NF-κB activation through inhibition of the activation status of Rac1 and IκBα phosphorylation. In addition, bradykinin B2 receptor (B2R), which mediates airway remodeling, regulates through NF-κB. Bronchial B2R expression is constitutively elevated in allergic asthma. In addition, certain NF-κB -dependent chemokines function to recruit eosinophils in the airway. Besides, bromodomain containing 4 (BRD4) plays a significant role in mediating innate immune response in human small airway epithelial cells as well as transglutaminase 2 (TG2), which is detectable in saliva. So, the guanine nucleotide-binding regulatory protein α-subunit, Gα16, expresses a κB-driven luciferase reporter. This response was accompanied by phosphorylation of IκBα. Furthermore, expression of Gα16 in saliva markedly enhanced TNF-α-induced κB reporter activity. Methods: The applied method to form NF-κB activation is the electromobility shift assay (EMSA). Also, B2R-BRD4-TG2 complex detection by immunoassay method within saliva with EMSA of NF-κB activation may be a novel biomarker for asthma diagnosis and follow up. Conclusion: This concept introduces NF-κB signaling pathway as potential asthma biomarkers and promising targets for the development of new therapeutic strategies against asthma.

Keywords: NF-κB, asthma, saliva, T-helper

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Authors: Tan Xin Zhong Timothy, Chang Chen Jie Victor, Yew Kwan Tong, Lim Geok Peng Sandy

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Background: Leaders in crisis response teams such as Trauma Teams in hospitals are essential to the effective coordination and direction of the team. The response to emergency trauma situations must be accurate, rapid, and well executed. To this end, the team leader’s social, technical and leadership skills are essential factors that implicate the success of an emergency trauma intervention. While each emergency trauma case varies in severity and complexity, and the experience and expertise of team leaders may vary, it would be productive to identify certain coordinative and directive functions that improve the capacity for leading a team. Methods: This qualitative study of Trauma Team physicians in Singapore General Hospital (SGH) involved 50 in-depth interviews with doctors and nurses involved in Trauma Team activations, observations of Trauma Teams managing emergency patients, and reviews of audio/video recordings of 65 trauma activations. The interviews were conducted with doctors of various ranks across the relevant departments, 12 from the Emergency Department (ED), 11 from General Surgery (GS) and 8 from Orthopaedics, while the 6 nurses were from ED. In accordance with the grounded theory approach, the content of the interviews was coded and analysed in order to derive broad leadership themes that corresponded with certain behavioural traits exhibited by trauma team leaders, supplemented with the observational and audio/video data. Results: The leadership behaviours of the team leaders could be typified into three broad categories: team orientation, engagement and activeness. Team orientation corresponds with the source and form of cognitive responsibility, decision-making and informational contributions, divisible into individualistic and consultative sub-categories. Engagement refers to the type of activity that leaders prefer to engage in, and which implicates their attentional focus, divisible into participatory and supervisory sub-categories. Activeness is a function of the leader’s attitudes towards the behavioural regulation of the team, which manifests in inactivity or activity to augment or merely align with protocol. These factors are not exhaustive and are contextually sensitive, but collectively implicate a significant portion of the leadership activity observed in trauma teams.

Keywords: trauma team activations, critical event management, leadership, teamwork

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Authors: Jeannette Anniés, Panagiotis Michalis, Chrysoula Papathanasiou, Selby Knudsen

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RiskPACC project aims to bring together researchers, practitioners, and first responders from nine European countries following a co-creation approach aiming to develop customised solutions to meet the needs of end-users. The co-creation workshops target to enhance the communication pathways between local civil protection authorities (CPAs) and citizens, in an effort to close the risk perception-action gap (RPAG). The participants in the workshops include a variety of stakeholders, as well as citizens, fostering the dialogue between the groups and supporting citizen participation in disaster risk management (DRM). The co-creation methodology in place implements co-design elements due to the integration of four ICT tools. Such ICT tools include web-based and mobile application technical solutions in different development stages, ranging from formulation and validation of concepts to pilot demonstrations. In total, seven different case studies are foreseen in RiskPACC. The workflow of the workshops is designed to be adaptive to every of the seven case study countries and their cultures’ particular needs. This work aims to provide an overview of the the preparation and the conduction of the workshops in which researchers and practitioners focused on mapping these different needs from the end users. The latter included first responders but also volunteers and citizens who actively participated in the co-creation workshops. The strategies to improve communication between CPAs and citizens themselves differ in the countries, and the modules of the co-creation methodology are adapted in response to such differences. Moreover, the project partners experienced how the structure of such workshops is perceived differently in the seven case studies. Therefore, the co-creation methodology itself is a design method underlying several iterations, which are eventually shaped by cross-cultural collaboration. For example, some case studies applied other modules according to the participatory group recruited. The participants were technical experts, teachers, citizens, first responders, or volunteers, among others. This work aspires to present the divergent approaches of the seven case studies implementing the co-creation methodology proposed, in response to different perceptions of the modules. An analysis of the adaptations and implications will also be provided to assess where the case studies’ objective of improving disaster resilience has been obtained.

Keywords: citizen participation, co-creation, disaster resilience, risk perception, ICT tools

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Authors: Claire Harrison, Raajit K. Rampal, Vikas Gupta, Srdan Verstovsek, Moshe Talpaz, Jean-Jacques Kiladjian, Ruben Mesa, Andrew Kuykendall, Alessandro Vannucchi, Francesca Palandri, Sebastian Grosicki, Timothy Devos, Eric Jourdan, Marielle J. Wondergem, Haifa Kathrin Al-Ali, Veronika Buxhofer-Ausch, Alberto Alvarez-Larrán, Sanjay Akhani, Rafael Muñoz-Carerras, Yury Sheykin, Gozde Colak, Morgan Harris, John Mascarenhas

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Myelofibrosis (MF) is characterized by bone marrow fibrosis, anemia, splenomegaly and constitutional symptoms. Progressive bone marrow fibrosis results from aberrant megakaryopoeisis and expression of proinflammatory cytokines, both of which are heavily influenced by bromodomain and extraterminal domain (BET)-mediated gene regulation and lead to myeloproliferation and cytopenias. Pelabresib (CPI-0610) is an oral small-molecule investigational inhibitor of BET protein bromodomains currently being developed for the treatment of patients with MF. It is designed to downregulate BET target genes and modify nuclear factor kappa B (NF-κB) signaling. MANIFEST-2 was initiated based on data from Arm 3 of the ongoing Phase 2 MANIFEST study (NCT02158858), which is evaluating the combination of pelabresib and ruxolitinib in Janus kinase inhibitor (JAKi) treatment-naïve patients with MF. Primary endpoint analyses showed splenic and symptom responses in 68% and 56% of 84 enrolled patients, respectively. MANIFEST-2 (NCT04603495) is a global, Phase 3, randomized, double-blind, active-control study of pelabresib and ruxolitinib versus placebo and ruxolitinib in JAKi treatment-naïve patients with primary MF, post-polycythemia vera MF or post-essential thrombocythemia MF. The aim of this study is to evaluate the efficacy and safety of pelabresib in combination with ruxolitinib. Here we report updates from a recent protocol amendment. The MANIFEST-2 study schema is shown in Figure 1. Key eligibility criteria include a Dynamic International Prognostic Scoring System (DIPSS) score of Intermediate-1 or higher, platelet count ≥100 × 10^9/L, spleen volume ≥450 cc by computerized tomography or magnetic resonance imaging, ≥2 symptoms with an average score ≥3 or a Total Symptom Score (TSS) of ≥10 using the Myelofibrosis Symptom Assessment Form v4.0, peripheral blast count <5% and Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status ≤2. Patient randomization will be stratified by DIPSS risk category (Intermediate-1 vs Intermediate-2 vs High), platelet count (>200 × 10^9/L vs 100–200 × 10^9/L) and spleen volume (≥1800 cm^3 vs <1800 cm^3). Double-blind treatment (pelabresib or matching placebo) will be administered once daily for 14 consecutive days, followed by a 7 day break, which is considered one cycle of treatment. Ruxolitinib will be administered twice daily for all 21 days of the cycle. The primary endpoint is SVR35 response (≥35% reduction in spleen volume from baseline) at Week 24, and the key secondary endpoint is TSS50 response (≥50% reduction in TSS from baseline) at Week 24. Other secondary endpoints include safety, pharmacokinetics, changes in bone marrow fibrosis, duration of SVR35 response, duration of TSS50 response, progression-free survival, overall survival, conversion from transfusion dependence to independence and rate of red blood cell transfusion for the first 24 weeks. Study recruitment is ongoing; 400 patients (200 per arm) from North America, Europe, Asia and Australia will be enrolled. The study opened for enrollment in November 2020. MANIFEST-2 was initiated based on data from the ongoing Phase 2 MANIFEST study with the aim of assessing the efficacy and safety of pelabresib and ruxolitinib in JAKi treatment-naïve patients with MF. MANIFEST-2 is currently open for enrollment.

Keywords: CPI-0610, JAKi treatment-naïve, MANIFEST-2, myelofibrosis, pelabresib

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Authors: Nicolò Vaiana, Filip C. Filippou, Giorgio Serino

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The solution of the nonlinear dynamic equilibrium equations of base-isolated structures adopting a conventional monolithic solution approach, i.e. an implicit single-step time integration method employed with an iteration procedure, and the use of existing nonlinear analytical models, such as differential equation models, to simulate the dynamic behavior of seismic isolators can require a significant computational effort. In order to reduce numerical computations, a partitioned solution method and a one dimensional nonlinear analytical model are presented in this paper. A partitioned solution approach can be easily applied to base-isolated structures in which the base isolation system is much more flexible than the superstructure. Thus, in this work, the explicit conditionally stable central difference method is used to evaluate the base isolation system nonlinear response and the implicit unconditionally stable Newmark’s constant average acceleration method is adopted to predict the superstructure linear response with the benefit in avoiding iterations in each time step of a nonlinear dynamic analysis. The proposed mathematical model is able to simulate the dynamic behavior of seismic isolators without requiring the solution of a nonlinear differential equation, as in the case of widely used differential equation model. The proposed mixed explicit-implicit time integration method and nonlinear exponential model are adopted to analyze a three dimensional seismically isolated structure with a lead rubber bearing system subjected to earthquake excitation. The numerical results show the good accuracy and the significant computational efficiency of the proposed solution approach and analytical model compared to the conventional solution method and mathematical model adopted in this work. Furthermore, the low stiffness value of the base isolation system with lead rubber bearings allows to have a critical time step considerably larger than the imposed ground acceleration time step, thus avoiding stability problems in the proposed mixed method.

Keywords: base-isolated structures, earthquake engineering, mixed time integration, nonlinear exponential model

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