Search results for: parameter interactions
1266 Synthesis and Biological Activities of Novel -1,2,3-Triazoles Derivatives
Authors: Zahra Dehghani, Hoda Dehghani, Elham Zarenezhad
Abstract:
1,2,3-Triazole derivatives are important compounds in medicinal chemistry owing to their wide applications in drug discovery. They can readily associate with biologically targets through the hydrogen bonding and dipole interactions. The 1,2,3-triazole core is a key structural motif in many bioactive compounds, exhibiting a broad spectrum of biological activities, such as antiviral, anticancer, anti-HIV, antibiotic, antibacterial, and antimicrobial. Additionally, they have found significant industrial applications as dyes, agrochemicals, corrosion inhibitors, photo stabilizers, and photographic materials. we disclose the synthesis and characterization of 1-azido-3-(aryl-2-yloxy)propan-2-ol drivatives. The chemistry works well with various ß-azido alcohols involving aryloxy, alkoxy and alkyl residues, and also tolerates a wide spectrum of electron-donating and electron-withdrawing functional groups in both alkyne and azide molecules. Most of ß-azidoalcohols used in these experiments were pre-synthesized by the regioselective ring opening reaction of corresponded epoxides with sodium azide, whereas the majority of terminal alkynes were prepared via SN2-type reaction of propargyl bromide and corresponded nucleophiles. To evaluate the bioactivity of title compounds, the in vitro antifungal activity of all compound was investigated against several pathogenic fungi including Candida albicans, Candida krusei, Aspergillus niger, and Trichophyton rubrum , clotrimazole and fluconazole was used as standard antifungal drugs, also To understand the antibacterial activity of synthesized compounds, they were in vitro screened against E. coli and S. aureus as Gram-negative and Gram-positive bacteria, respectively. The in vitro tests have shown the promising antifungal but marginal antibacterial activity against tested fungi and bacteria.Keywords: biological activities, antibacterial, antifungal, 1, 2, 3-Triazole
Procedia PDF Downloads 4291265 Written Argumentative Texts in Elementary School: The Development of Text Structure and Its Relation to Reading Comprehension
Authors: Sara Zadunaisky Ehrlich, Batia Seroussi, Anat Stavans
Abstract:
Text structure is a parameter of text quality. This study investigated the structure of written argumentative texts produced by elementary school age children. We set two objectives: to identify and trace the structural components of the argumentative texts and to investigate whether reading comprehension skills were correlated with text structure. 293 school children from 2nd to 5th grades were asked to write two argumentative texts about informal or everyday life controversial topics and completed two reading tasks that targeted different levels of text comprehension. The findings indicated, on the one hand, significant developmental differences between mature and more novice writers in terms of text length and mean proportion of clauses produced for a better elaboration of the different text components. On the other hand, with certain fluctuations, no meaningful differences were found in terms of presence of text structure: at all grade levels, elementary school children produced the basic and minimal structure that included the writer's argument and reasons or arguments' supports. Counter-arguments were scarce even in the upper grades. While the children captured that essentially an argument must be justified, the more the number of supports produced, the fewer the clauses the children produced. Last, weak to mild relations were found between reading comprehension and argumentative text structure. Nevertheless, children who scored higher on sophisticated questions that require inferential or world knowledge displayed more elaborated structures in terms of text length and size of supports to the writer's argument. These findings indicate how school-age children perceive the basic template of an argument with future implications regarding how to elaborate written arguments.Keywords: argumentative text, text structure, elementary school children, written argumentations
Procedia PDF Downloads 1641264 Reinforcing Effects of Natural Micro-Particles on the Dynamic Impact Behaviour of Hybrid Bio-Composites Made of Short Kevlar Fibers Reinforced Thermoplastic Composite Armor
Authors: Edison E. Haro, Akindele G. Odeshi, Jerzy A. Szpunar
Abstract:
Hybrid bio-composites are developed for use in protective armor through positive hybridization offered by reinforcement of high-density polyethylene (HDPE) with Kevlar short fibers and palm wood micro-fillers. The manufacturing process involved a combination of extrusion and compression molding techniques. The mechanical behavior of Kevlar fiber reinforced HDPE with and without palm wood filler additions are compared. The effect of the weight fraction of the added palm wood micro-fillers is also determined. The Young modulus was found to increase as the weight fraction of organic micro-particles increased. However, the flexural strength decreased with increasing weight fraction of added micro-fillers. The interfacial interactions between the components were investigated using scanning electron microscopy. The influence of the size, random alignment and distribution of the natural micro-particles was evaluated. Ballistic impact and dynamic shock loading tests were performed to determine the optimum proportion of Kevlar short fibers and organic micro-fillers needed to improve impact strength of the HDPE. These results indicate a positive hybridization by deposition of organic micro-fillers on the surface of short Kevlar fibers used in reinforcing the thermoplastic matrix leading to enhancement of the mechanical strength and dynamic impact behavior of these materials. Therefore, these hybrid bio-composites can be promising materials for different applications against high velocity impacts.Keywords: hybrid bio-composites, organic nano-fillers, dynamic shocking loading, ballistic impacts, energy absorption
Procedia PDF Downloads 1111263 Neighbouring and Sense of Community in Participatory Social Housing Estates in Algeria
Authors: Farida Naceur
Abstract:
Algerian cities experienced after the independence of the country a rapid urbanisation process fostered by population growth. In order to deal with the severe housing shortage resulted, large social public housing programs totally financed by the government were launched across the country during the eighty. Unfortunately, the standardized multistory buildings produced underwent intense deterioration and turned very quickly after their occupancy into sources of nuisance and distress. The government adopted a new housing policy in 2000, which aims to diversify housing types according to household incomes and encourage access to housing property. The model of participatory social housing emerged; it was designed for the intermediate groups, allowing them to benefit from direct financial aid and to borrow credit from banks in order to purchase their dwellings. Twenty years afterward, no assessment to date has been established to evaluate the real impact of such a strategy. The aim of this paper is to examine whether this type of housing helped to stimulate a participative dynamism among its occupants to strengthen their commitment, their involvement in the maintenance and keeping of their surroundings. For the purpose of the study, we focus our attention on various participatory social housing settlements in Batna and Biskra, two medium-sized cities in eastern Algeria. The investigation is structured in various types of analysis: a spatial analysis, observations, interviews with public authorities representatives, chief planners, and experts. In addition to this, informal interviews with occupants of various participatory social housing settlements were arranged to collect qualitative data. Occupants were asked open questions focusing on their daily life and practices in order to examine their degree of involvement in their neighbourhood’s life.Keywords: participatory social housing, rental social housing, involvement, maintenance, social interactions, community life
Procedia PDF Downloads 481262 The Use of Allelopathic Influences of Auxiliary Plants in the Bioproduction of Tomatoes
Authors: Demur Bakuradze, Mzia Beruashvili
Abstract:
It is known that bioactive compounds that are secreted by allelopathic plants sown with the main culture and are natural phytotoxic substances can be used as natural pesticides that, unlike synthetic agrochemicals, are less likely to disrupt the global ecosystem. Alternative plant protection approaches to date include components of integrated pest management programs and natural plant protection tools. Every year, more and more evidence is given on the successful use of these means, including allelopathic compounds in plant protection against pests. Proper use of these interactions between plants and other organisms can become a serious alternative to synthetic pesticides. Due to the relevance of the issue, the purpose of the study was to study the impact of some companion allelopathic plants on the Tomato culture (variety ‘Kharisgula’) on the test plot of the Tsilkani Base Bioagricultural Service of the Agricultural Research Center (East Georgia) and the village of Kharagauli. The study was conducted in 2023-2024 with methods adopted in organic agriculture and plant protection. Various companion plants were studied: Basil (Ocimum basilicum L.), Imeretian saffron or marigold (Tagetes patula L.) and beans (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) (variety ‘Tsanava’) affects tomato culture in mixed crops. It was established that when sowing basil in rows and on the perimeter, the yield in the Tsilkani increased by 39.7%, and in Sagandzile - 42.8%. In the case of Imeretian saffron, economic efficiency in Tsilkani reached 29.5%, in Sagandzile - 28.5%, while the difference in the bean variant with the control was 31.7% in Tsilkani, and in Sagandzile - 23.8%. The study also found that when sowing aromatic plants (basil, marigold) with tomato, the number and spread of pests is quite decreasing compared to the control. In particular, the number of green vegetable bugs (Nezara viridula L.) decreased by 59.4% compared to control.Keywords: allelopathy, companion planting, tomato, bioproduction
Procedia PDF Downloads 161261 Bulk Modification of Poly(Dimethylsiloxane) for Biomedical Applications
Authors: A. Aslihan Gokaltun, Martin L. Yarmush, Ayse Asatekin, O. Berk Usta
Abstract:
In the last decade microfabrication processes including rapid prototyping techniques have advanced rapidly and achieved a fairly matured stage. These advances encouraged and enabled the use of microfluidic devices by a wider range of users with applications in biological separations, and cell and organoid cultures. Accordingly, a significant current challenge in the field is controlling biomolecular interactions at interfaces and the development of novel biomaterials to satisfy the unique needs of the biomedical applications. Poly(dimethylsiloxane) (PDMS) is by far the most preferred material in the fabrication of microfluidic devices. This can be attributed its favorable properties, including: (1) simple fabrication by replica molding, (2) good mechanical properties, (3) excellent optical transparency from 240 to 1100 nm, (4) biocompatibility and non-toxicity, and (5) high gas permeability. However, high hydrophobicity (water contact angle ~108°±7°) of PDMS often limits its applications where solutions containing biological samples are concerned. In our study, we created a simple, easy method for modifying the surface chemistry of PDMS microfluidic devices through the addition of surface-segregating additives during manufacture. In this method, a surface segregating copolymer is added to precursors for silicone and the desired device is manufactured following the usual methods. When the device surface is in contact with an aqueous solution, the copolymer self-organizes to expose its hydrophilic segments to the surface, making the surface of the silicone device more hydrophilic. This can lead to several improved performance criteria including lower fouling, lower non-specific adsorption, and better wettability. Specifically, this approach is expected to be useful for the manufacture of microfluidic devices. It is also likely to be useful for manufacturing silicone tubing and other materials, biomaterial applications, and surface coatings.Keywords: microfluidics, non-specific protein adsorption, PDMS, PEG, copolymer
Procedia PDF Downloads 2651260 Analysis of Gait Characteristics Using Dynamic Foot Scanner in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus
Authors: C. G. Shashi Kumar, G. Arun Maiya, H. Manjunath Hande, K. V. Rajagopal
Abstract:
Background: Diabetes mellitus (DM) is a metabolic disorder with involvement of neurovascular and muscular system. Studies have documented that the gait parameter is altered in type 2 diabetes mellitus with peripheral neuropathy. However, there is a dearth of literature regarding the gait characteristics in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) without peripheral neuropathy. Therefore, the present study is focused on identifying gait changes in early type 2 diabetes mellitus without peripheral neuropathy. Objective: To analyze the gait characteristics in Type 2 diabetes mellitus without peripheral neuropathy. Methods: After obtaining ethical clearance from Institutional Ethical Committee (IEC), 36 T2DM without peripheral neuropathy and 32 matched healthy subjects were recruited. Gait characteristics (step duration, gait cycle length, gait cycle duration, stride duration, step length, double stance duration) of all the subjects were analyzed using Windtrack dynamic foot scanner. Data were analyzed using Independent‘t’ test to find the difference between the groups (step duration, gait cycle length, gait cycle duration) and Mann-Whitney test was used to analyze the step length and double stance duration to find difference between the groups. Level of significance was kept at P<0.05. Results: Result analysis showed significant decrease in step duration, gait cycle length, gait cycle duration, step length, double stance duration in T2DM subjects as compared to healthy subjects. We also observed a mean increase in stride duration in T2DM subjects compared to healthy subjects.Keywords: type 2 diabetes mellitus, dynamic foot scan, gait characteristics, medical and health sciences
Procedia PDF Downloads 4361259 Acculturation of Iranian Students in Europe
Authors: Shirin Sadat Ahmadi
Abstract:
The number of people, particularly university students, migrating from Iran and applying for American and European universities has been rising during recent years. Different people may have various reasons and goals for migration, but one of the common issues among all these people is the cultural challenges they experience when living in the adopted society. Immigrants usually confront obstacles during the Intercultural transition and adaption process. Different variables such as age, religion, gender, education, knowing the spoken language in destination country, financial condition, interactions with natives, and using social media can affect the cultural challenges people face after migration and how they conquer issues appearing due to intercultural differences and conflicts. In this research we have interviewed a sample consisted of 15 Iranian students living and studying abroad found by using snowball sampling technique via video call to realize what cultural challenges they have experienced in the new society, how the mentioned variables above eased these challenges or made them harder and what approaches and solutions they adopted to adjust themselves to the new society and its cultural dimensions. Based on John Berry's acculturation theory of migrant-host relationship, we have classified these 15 people in five different categories: Assimilation, Separation, Marginalization, and Integration. In addition we have considered Y.Y. Kim's communication-based theory of cross-cultural adaption to explain how communications helped migrant populations in adaption process. Based on the findings of this study, 12 of 15 interviewed members of the study used the integration strategy to adapt to the new cultural environment, 3 of them used the assimilation strategy, and none of them used marginalization or separation strategies. Communicating with natives, knowing the language, and education were the factors that helped all the interviewed members of the sample to overcome the difficulties of intercultural transition.Keywords: acculturation, culture, intercultural transition, migration
Procedia PDF Downloads 631258 Analysis of Pressure Drop in a Concentrated Solar Collector with Direct Steam Production
Authors: Sara Sallam, Mohamed Taqi, Naoual Belouaggadia
Abstract:
Solar thermal power plants using parabolic trough collectors (PTC) are currently a powerful technology for generating electricity. Most of these solar power plants use thermal oils as heat transfer fluid. The latter is heated in the solar field and transfers the heat absorbed in an oil-water heat exchanger for the production of steam driving the turbines of the power plant. Currently, we are seeking to develop PTCs with direct steam generation (DSG). This process consists of circulating water under pressure in the receiver tube to generate steam directly into the solar loop. This makes it possible to reduce the investment and maintenance costs of the PTCs (the oil-water exchangers are removed) and to avoid the environmental risks associated with the use of thermal oils. The pressure drops in these systems are an important parameter to ensure their proper operation. The determination of these losses is complex because of the presence of the two phases, and most often we limit ourselves to describing them by models using empirical correlations. A comparison of these models with experimental data was performed. Our calculations focused on the evolution of the pressure of the liquid-vapor mixture along the receiver tube of a PTC-DSG for pressure values and inlet flow rates ranging respectively from 3 to 10 MPa, and from 0.4 to 0.6 kg/s. The comparison of the numerical results with experience allows us to demonstrate the validity of some models according to the pressures and the flow rates of entry in the PTC-DSG receiver tube. The analysis of these two parameters’ effects on the evolution of the pressure along the receiving tub, shows that the increase of the inlet pressure and the decrease of the flow rate lead to minimal pressure losses.Keywords: direct steam generation, parabolic trough collectors, Ppressure drop, empirical models
Procedia PDF Downloads 1381257 Metal-Based Deep Eutectic Solvents for Extractive Desulfurization of Fuels: Analysis from Molecular Dynamics Simulations
Authors: Aibek Kukpayev, Dhawal Shah
Abstract:
Combustion of sour fuels containing high amount of sulfur leads to the formation of sulfur oxides, which adversely harm the environment and has a negative impact on human health. Considering this, several legislations have been imposed to bring down the sulfur content in fuel to less than 10 ppm. In recent years, novel deep eutectic solvents (DESs) have been developed to achieve deep desulfurization, particularly to extract thiophenic compounds from liquid fuels. These novel DESs, considered as analogous to ionic liquids are green, eco-friendly, inexpensive, and sustainable. We herein, using molecular dynamic simulation, analyze the interactions of metal-based DESs with model oil consisting of thiophenic compounds. The DES used consists of polyethylene glycol (PEG-200) as a hydrogen bond donor, choline chloride (ChCl) or tetrabutyl ammonium chloride (TBAC) as a hydrogen bond acceptor, and cobalt chloride (CoCl₂) as metal salt. In particular, the combination of ChCl: PEG-200:CoCl₂ at a ratio 1:2:1 and the combination of TBAC:PEG-200:CoCl₂ at a ratio 1:2:0.25 were simulated, separately, with model oil consisting of octane and thiophenes at 25ᵒC and 1 bar. The results of molecular dynamics simulations were analyzed in terms of interaction energies between different components. The simulations revealed a stronger interaction between DESs/thiophenes as compared with octane/thiophenes, suggestive of an efficient desulfurization process. In addition, our analysis suggests that the choice of hydrogen bond acceptor strongly influences the efficiency of the desulfurization process. Taken together, the results also show the importance of the metal ion, although present in small amount, in the process, and the role of the polymer in desulfurization of the model fuel.Keywords: deep eutectic solvents, desulfurization, molecular dynamics simulations, thiophenes
Procedia PDF Downloads 1441256 Reliability Assessment and Failure Detection in a Complex Human-Machine System Using Agent-Based and Human Decision-Making Modeling
Authors: Sanjal Gavande, Thomas Mazzuchi, Shahram Sarkani
Abstract:
In a complex aerospace operational environment, identifying failures in a procedure involving multiple human-machine interactions are difficult. These failures could lead to accidents causing loss of hardware or human life. The likelihood of failure further increases if operational procedures are tested for a novel system with multiple human-machine interfaces and with no prior performance data. The existing approach in the literature of reviewing complex operational tasks in a flowchart or tabular form doesn’t provide any insight into potential system failures due to human decision-making ability. To address these challenges, this research explores an agent-based simulation approach for reliability assessment and fault detection in complex human-machine systems while utilizing a human decision-making model. The simulation will predict the emergent behavior of the system due to the interaction between humans and their decision-making capability with the varying states of the machine and vice-versa. Overall system reliability will be evaluated based on a defined set of success-criteria conditions and the number of recorded failures over an assigned limit of Monte Carlo runs. The study also aims at identifying high-likelihood failure locations for the system. The research concludes that system reliability and failures can be effectively calculated when individual human and machine agent states are clearly defined. This research is limited to the operations phase of a system lifecycle process in an aerospace environment only. Further exploration of the proposed agent-based and human decision-making model will be required to allow for a greater understanding of this topic for application outside of the operations domain.Keywords: agent-based model, complex human-machine system, human decision-making model, system reliability assessment
Procedia PDF Downloads 1671255 High and Low Salinity Polymer in Omani Oil Field
Authors: Intisar Al Busaidi, Rashid Al Maamari, Daowoud Al Mahroqi, Mahvash Karimi
Abstract:
In recent years, some research studies have been performed on the hybrid application of polymer and low salinity water flooding (LSWF). Numerous technical and economic benefits of low salinity polymer flooding (LSPF) have been reported. However, as with any EOR technology, there are various risks involved in using LSPF. Ions exchange between porous media and brine is one of the Crude oil/ brine/ rocks (COBR) reactions that is identified as a potential risk in LSPF. To the best of our knowledge, this conclusion was drawn based on bulk rheology measurements, and no explanation was provided on how water chemistry changed in the presence of polymer. Therefore, this study aimed to understand rock/ brine interactions with high and low salinity brine in the absence and presence of polymer with Omani reservoir core plugs. Many single-core flooding experiments were performed with low and high salinity polymer solutions to investigate the influence of partially hydrolyzed polyacrylic amide with different brine salinities on cation exchange reactions. Ion chromatography (IC), total organic carbon (TOC), rheological, and pH measurements were conducted for produced aqueous phase. A higher increase in pH and lower polymer adsorption was observed in LSPF compared with conventional polymer flooding. In addition, IC measurements showed that all produced fluids in the absence and presence of polymer showed elevated Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, K+, Cl- and SO₄²⁻ ions compared to the injected fluids. However, the divalent cations levels, mainly Ca²⁺, were the highest and remained elevated for several pore volumes in the presence of LSP. The results are in line with rheological measurements where the highest viscosity reduction was recorded with the highest level of Ca²⁺ production. Despite the viscosity loss due to cation exchange reactions, LSP can be an attractive alternative to conventional polymer flooding in the Marmul field.Keywords: polymer, ions, exchange, recovery, low salinity
Procedia PDF Downloads 1121254 Screening of Factors Affecting the Enzymatic Hydrolysis of Empty Fruit Bunches in Aqueous Ionic Liquid and Locally Produced Cellulase System
Authors: Md. Z. Alam, Amal A. Elgharbawy, Muhammad Moniruzzaman, Nassereldeen A. Kabbashi, Parveen Jamal
Abstract:
The enzymatic hydrolysis of lignocellulosic biomass is one of the obstacles in the process of sugar production, due to the presence of lignin that protects the cellulose molecules against cellulases. Although the pretreatment of lignocellulose in ionic liquid (IL) system has been receiving a lot of interest; however, it requires IL removal with an anti-solvent in order to proceed with the enzymatic hydrolysis. At this point, introducing a compatible cellulase enzyme seems more efficient in this process. A cellulase enzyme that was produced by Trichoderma reesei on palm kernel cake (PKC) exhibited a promising stability in several ILs. The enzyme called PKC-Cel was tested for its optimum pH and temperature as well as its molecular weight. One among evaluated ILs, 1,3-diethylimidazolium dimethyl phosphate [DEMIM] DMP was applied in this study. Evaluation of six factors was executed in Stat-Ease Design Expert V.9, definitive screening design, which are IL/ buffer ratio, temperature, hydrolysis retention time, biomass loading, cellulase loading and empty fruit bunches (EFB) particle size. According to the obtained data, IL-enzyme system shows the highest sugar concentration at 70 °C, 27 hours, 10% IL-buffer, 35% biomass loading, 60 Units/g cellulase and 200 μm particle size. As concluded from the obtained data, not only the PKC-Cel was stable in the presence of the IL, also it was actually stable at a higher temperature than its optimum one. The reducing sugar obtained was 53.468±4.58 g/L which was equivalent to 0.3055 g reducing sugar/g EFB. This approach opens an insight for more studies in order to understand the actual effect of ILs on cellulases and their interactions in the aqueous system. It could also benefit in an efficient production of bioethanol from lignocellulosic biomass.Keywords: cellulase, hydrolysis, lignocellulose, pretreatment
Procedia PDF Downloads 3641253 The Influence of the Visual and the Direct Physical Accessibility on the Sense of Control of Saudi Women in the Home Environment
Authors: Ahdab H. Mahdaly, Debajyoti Pati, Sharran Parkinson, Lee S. Duemer
Abstract:
The importance of providing employed mothers with the right physical environment inside the home is not an easy task, especially when the culture is involved. This study examines the typical Saudi home as a personal, emotional, social and cultural setting, especially on the interactions between the physical design and perceived control of working mothers. However, owing to the scarcity of published literature on Saudi homes, American employed mothers were included in the study to provide a baseline. With the ongoing transformations in women’s role in Saudi Arabia, there is a perception that traditional home designs may not afford the appropriate sense of control inside the home. Saudi Arabia has numerous interacting layers of socio-cultural-religious forces that affect residential design, and understanding the moderating role of the Saudi home is vital to the ongoing national policy transition on women. The study investigated one narrow, albeit critical, influence of home design on ones sense of control – direct visual and physical accessibility between sets of rooms. Ten subjects, five Saudis and five American, examined visual and physical access between 171 room sets, and provided qualitative responses on how each access influences their sense of control. Three main themes emerged, with potential effects on control: 1- Openness, 2- Proximity, and 3- Separation. Data suggest that although the Saudi home is a substantially more complex setting than the American ones, a class of spaces that can be termed as ‘Neutral Rooms’ serving as cultural separators may represent the ideal solution for optimizing sense of control, without ignoring cultural-religious traditions, during the transition of the Saudi women.Keywords: direct physical accessibility, home environment, sense of control, visual accessibility, working mothers
Procedia PDF Downloads 3101252 Optimization of Quercus cerris Bark Liquefaction
Authors: Luísa P. Cruz-Lopes, Hugo Costa e Silva, Idalina Domingos, José Ferreira, Luís Teixeira de Lemos, Bruno Esteves
Abstract:
The liquefaction process of cork based tree barks has led to an increase of interest due to its potential innovation in the lumber and wood industries. In this particular study the bark of Quercus cerris (Turkish oak) is used due to its appreciable amount of cork tissue, although of inferior quality when compared to the cork provided by other Quercus trees. This study aims to optimize alkaline catalysis liquefaction conditions, regarding several parameters. To better comprehend the possible chemical characteristics of the bark of Quercus cerris, a complete chemical analysis was performed. The liquefaction process was performed in a double-jacket reactor heated with oil, using glycerol and a mixture of glycerol/ethylene glycol as solvents, potassium hydroxide as a catalyst, and varying the temperature, liquefaction time and granulometry. Due to low liquefaction efficiency resulting from the first experimental procedures a study was made regarding different washing techniques after the filtration process using methanol and methanol/water. The chemical analysis stated that the bark of Quercus cerris is mostly composed by suberin (ca. 30%) and lignin (ca. 24%) as well as insolvent hemicelluloses in hot water (ca. 23%). On the liquefaction stage, the results that led to higher yields were: using a mixture of methanol/ethylene glycol as reagents and a time and temperature of 120 minutes and 200 ºC, respectively. It is concluded that using a granulometry of <80 mesh leads to better results, even if this parameter barely influences the liquefaction efficiency. Regarding the filtration stage, washing the residue with methanol and then distilled water leads to a considerable increase on final liquefaction percentages, which proves that this procedure is effective at liquefying suberin content and lignocellulose fraction.Keywords: liquefaction, Quercus cerris, polyalcohol liquefaction, temperature
Procedia PDF Downloads 3311251 Humans, Social Robots, and Mutual Love: An Application of Aristotle’s Nicomachean Ethics
Authors: Ruby Jean Hornsby
Abstract:
In our rapidly advancing techno-moral world, human-robot relationships are increasingly becoming a part of intimate human life. Indeed, social robots - that is, autonomous or semi-autonomous embodied artificial agents that generally possess human or animal-like qualities (such as responding to environmental stimuli, communicating, learning, performing human tasks, and making autonomous decisions) - have been designed to function as human friends. In light of such advances, immediate philosophical scrutiny is imperative in order to examine the extent to which human-robot interactions constitute genuine friendship and therefore contribute towards the good human life. Aristotle's conception of friendship is philosophically illuminating and sufficiently broad in scope to guide such analysis. On his account, it is necessary (though not sufficient) that for a friendship to exist between two agents - A and B - both agents must have a mutual love for one another. Aristotle claims that A loves B if: Condition 1: A desires those apparent good (qua pleasant, useful, or virtuous) properties attributable to B, and Condition 2: A has goodwill (wishes what is best) for B. This paper argues that human-robot interaction can (and does) successfully meet both conditions; as such, it demonstrates that robots and humans can reciprocally love one another. It will argue for this position by first justifying the claim that a human can desire apparent good features attributable to a robot (i.e., by taking them to be pleasant and/or useful) and outlining how it is that a human can wish a robot well in light of that robot's (quasi-) interests. Next, the paper will argue that a robot can (quasi-)desire certain properties that are attributable to a human before elucidating how it is possible for a robot to act in the interests of a human. Accordingly, this paper will conclude that it is already the case that humans can formulate relationships with robots that involve reciprocated love. This is significant because it suggests that social robots are candidates for human friendship and can therefore contribute toward flourishing human futures.Keywords: ancient philosophy, friendship, inter-disciplinary applied ethics, love, social robotics
Procedia PDF Downloads 1001250 The Effects of Prolonged Use of Caffeine on Thyroid and Adrenal Glands – A Retrospective Cohort Study
Authors: Vasishtha Avadhani Upadrasta, Mradul Kumar Daga, Smita Kaushik
Abstract:
Background: Caffeine consumption has skyrocketed in the recent decades as we try to match pace with the machines. Studies have been conducted on animals and a few on humans, mainly on the acute effects of high-dose caffeine intake. Almost none have been conducted on the chronic effects of caffeine consumption. This study involved Medical professionals as case subjects, who consumed caffeine daily. Methods: This study, over a period of 3 months, involved 96 volunteers (chosen randomly w.r.t. gender and field in medical fraternity), including people who drank >500mg of caffeine a day to people who consumed none. People with any co-morbidities at all were excluded straight away. Two sets of blood samples were drawn and assessed. Three groups were created, Group 1 (>200mg caffeine/day) and Group 2 (15-200 mg caffeine/day) and Group 3 (<200mg Caffeine/day). Results: The result of the study found that exposure to caffeine at doses >200mg/day for more than 6 months leads to a significant difference in circulating free T3 [(-0.96 pmol/L ± 0.07) = (-18.5%), CI 95%, p = .000024] and Cortisol [(-123 nmol/L ± 9.8) = (-46.8%), CI 95%, p = .00029] hormones but shows an insignificant effect on circulating TSH [0.4 mIU/L, CI 95%, p=.37] and ACTH [(-3.2 pg/ml ± 0.3), CI 95%, p = .53) hormones, which stay within normal physiological ranges, irrespective of the daily dose of consumption. Results also highlight that women are more susceptible to decrement in fT3 than men (Relative Risk =1.58, ANOVA F-static = 7.15, p = 0.0105). Conclusions: Caffeine consumption in excess of 200mg/day, for more than or equal to 6 months, causes significant derangement in basal fT3 and Cortisol hormone levels, without affecting the TSH and ACTH (regulatory) hormone levels, indicating disturbance of action at the peripheral and/or cellular levels, possibly via the Paraventricular Nucleus –Leptin-CAR-Adenosine interactions. Women are more susceptible to decrement in fT3 levels than men (at same dose of caffeine).Keywords: ACTH, adrenals, caffeine, cortisol, thyroid, thyroxin, TSH
Procedia PDF Downloads 731249 Genetic Programming: Principles, Applications and Opportunities for Hydrological Modelling
Authors: Oluwaseun K. Oyebode, Josiah A. Adeyemo
Abstract:
Hydrological modelling plays a crucial role in the planning and management of water resources, most especially in water stressed regions where the need to effectively manage the available water resources is of critical importance. However, due to the complex, nonlinear and dynamic behaviour of hydro-climatic interactions, achieving reliable modelling of water resource systems and accurate projection of hydrological parameters are extremely challenging. Although a significant number of modelling techniques (process-based and data-driven) have been developed and adopted in that regard, the field of hydrological modelling is still considered as one that has sluggishly progressed over the past decades. This is majorly as a result of the identification of some degree of uncertainty in the methodologies and results of techniques adopted. In recent times, evolutionary computation (EC) techniques have been developed and introduced in response to the search for efficient and reliable means of providing accurate solutions to hydrological related problems. This paper presents a comprehensive review of the underlying principles, methodological needs and applications of a promising evolutionary computation modelling technique – genetic programming (GP). It examines the specific characteristics of the technique which makes it suitable to solving hydrological modelling problems. It discusses the opportunities inherent in the application of GP in water related-studies such as rainfall estimation, rainfall-runoff modelling, streamflow forecasting, sediment transport modelling, water quality modelling and groundwater modelling among others. Furthermore, the means by which such opportunities could be harnessed in the near future are discussed. In all, a case for total embracement of GP and its variants in hydrological modelling studies is made so as to put in place strategies that would translate into achieving meaningful progress as it relates to modelling of water resource systems, and also positively influence decision-making by relevant stakeholders.Keywords: computational modelling, evolutionary algorithms, genetic programming, hydrological modelling
Procedia PDF Downloads 2961248 Drop Impact Study on Flexible Superhydrophobic Surface Containing Micro-Nano Hierarchical Structures
Authors: Abinash Tripathy, Girish Muralidharan, Amitava Pramanik, Prosenjit Sen
Abstract:
Superhydrophobic surfaces are abundant in nature. Several surfaces such as wings of butterfly, legs of water strider, feet of gecko and the lotus leaf show extreme water repellence behaviour. Self-cleaning, stain-free fabrics, spill-resistant protective wears, drag reduction in micro-fluidic devices etc. are few applications of superhydrophobic surfaces. In order to design robust superhydrophobic surface, it is important to understand the interaction of water with superhydrophobic surface textures. In this work, we report a simple coating method for creating large-scale flexible superhydrophobic paper surface. The surface consists of multiple layers of silanized zirconia microparticles decorated with zirconia nanoparticles. Water contact angle as high as 159±10 and contact angle hysteresis less than 80 was observed. Drop impact studies on superhydrophobic paper surface were carried out by impinging water droplet and capturing its dynamics through high speed imaging. During the drop impact, the Weber number was varied from 20 to 80 by altering the impact velocity of the drop and the parameters such as contact time, normalized spread diameter were obtained. In contrast to earlier literature reports, we observed contact time to be dependent on impact velocity on superhydrophobic surface. Total contact time was split into two components as spread time and recoil time. The recoil time was found to be dependent on the impact velocity while the spread time on the surface did not show much variation with the impact velocity. Further, normalized spreading parameter was found to increase with increase in impact velocity.Keywords: contact angle, contact angle hysteresis, contact time, superhydrophobic
Procedia PDF Downloads 4251247 Biostimulant and Abiotic Plant Stress Interactions in Malting Barley: A Glasshouse Study
Authors: Conor Blunt, Mariluz del Pino-de Elias, Grace Cott, Saoirse Tracy, Rainer Melzer
Abstract:
The European Green Deal announced in 2021 details agricultural chemical pesticide use and synthetic fertilizer application to be reduced by 50% and 20% by 2030. Increasing and maintaining expected yields under these ambitious goals has strained the agricultural sector. This intergovernmental plan has identified plant biostimulants as one potential input to facilitate this new phase of sustainable agriculture; these products are defined as microorganisms or substances that can stimulate soil and plant functioning to enhance crop nutrient use efficiency, quality and tolerance to abiotic stresses. Spring barley is Ireland’s most widely sown tillage crop, and grain destined for malting commands the most significant market price. Heavy erratic rainfall is forecasted in Ireland’s climate future, and barley is particularly susceptible to waterlogging. Recent findings suggest that plant receptivity to biostimulants may depend on the level of stress inflicted on crops to elicit an assisted plant response. In this study, three biostimulants of different genesis (seaweed, protein hydrolysate and bacteria) are applied to ‘RGT Planet’ malting barley fertilized at three different rates (0 kg/ha, 40 kg/ha, 75 kg/ha) of calcium ammonium nitrogen (27% N) under non-stressed and waterlogged conditions. This 4x3x2 factorial trial design was planted in a completed randomized block with one plant per experimental unit. Leaf gas exchange data and key agronomic and grain quality parameters were analyzed via ANOVA. No penalty on productivity was evident on plants receiving 40 kg/ha of N and bio stimulant compared to 75 kg/ha of N treatments. The main effects of nitrogen application and waterlogging provided the most significant variation in the dataset.Keywords: biostimulant, Barley, malting, NUE, waterlogging
Procedia PDF Downloads 751246 Artificial Neural Network-Based Prediction of Effluent Quality of Wastewater Treatment Plant Employing Data Preprocessing Approaches
Authors: Vahid Nourani, Atefeh Ashrafi
Abstract:
Prediction of treated wastewater quality is a matter of growing importance in water treatment procedure. In this way artificial neural network (ANN), as a robust data-driven approach, has been widely used for forecasting the effluent quality of wastewater treatment. However, developing ANN model based on appropriate input variables is a major concern due to the numerous parameters which are collected from treatment process and the number of them are increasing in the light of electronic sensors development. Various studies have been conducted, using different clustering methods, in order to classify most related and effective input variables. This issue has been overlooked in the selecting dominant input variables among wastewater treatment parameters which could effectively lead to more accurate prediction of water quality. In the presented study two ANN models were developed with the aim of forecasting effluent quality of Tabriz city’s wastewater treatment plant. Biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) was utilized to determine water quality as a target parameter. Model A used Principal Component Analysis (PCA) for input selection as a linear variance-based clustering method. Model B used those variables identified by the mutual information (MI) measure. Therefore, the optimal ANN structure when the result of model B compared with model A showed up to 15% percent increment in Determination Coefficient (DC). Thus, this study highlights the advantage of PCA method in selecting dominant input variables for ANN modeling of wastewater plant efficiency performance.Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks, biochemical oxygen demand, principal component analysis, mutual information, Tabriz wastewater treatment plant, wastewater treatment plant
Procedia PDF Downloads 1281245 Effect of Select Surfactants on Activities of Soil Enzymes Involved in Nutrient Cycling
Authors: Frieda Eivazi, Nikita L. Mullings
Abstract:
Soils are recipient for surfactants in herbicide formulations. Surfactants entering the soil environment can possibly disrupt different chemical, physical and biological interactions. Therefore, it is critical that we understand the fate, behavior and transport of surfactants upon entering the soil. A comprehensive study was conducted to examine effect of surfactants on nutrient uptake, microbial community, and enzyme activity. The research was conducted in the greenhouse growing corn (Zea mays) as a test plant in a factorial experiment (three surfactants at two different rates with control, and three herbicides) organized as randomized blocked design. Surfactants evaluated were Activator 90, Agri-Dex, and Thrust; herbicides were glyphosate, atrazine, and bentazon. Treatments examined were surfactant only, herbicide only, and surfactant + herbicide combinations. Corn was planted in fertilized soils (silt loam and silty clay) with moisture content maintained at the field capacity for optimum growth. This paper will report results of above mentioned treatments on acid phosphatase, beta-glucosidase, arylsulfatase, beta-glucosaminidase, and dehydrogenase activities. In general, there were variations in the enzyme activities with some inhibition and some being enhanced by the treatments. Activator 90 appeared to have the highest inhibitory effect on enzymatic activities. Atrazine application significantly decreased the activities of acid phosphatase, beta-glucosidase, and dehydrogenase in both soils; however, combination of Atrazine + Agridex increased the acid phosphatase activity while significantly inhibiting the other enzyme activities in soils. It was concluded that long-term field studies are needed to validate changes in nutrient uptake, microbial community and enzyme activities due to surfactant-herbicide combination effects.Keywords: herbicides, nutrient cycling, soil enzymes, surfactant
Procedia PDF Downloads 2491244 Applications of the Morphological Variability in River Management: A Study of West Rapti River
Authors: Partha Sarathi Mondal, Srabani Sanyal
Abstract:
Different geomorphic agents produce a different landforms pattern. Similarly rivers also have a distinct and diverse landforms pattern. And even, within a river course different and distinct assemblage of landforms i.e. morphological variability are seen. These morphological variability are produced by different river processes. Channel and floodplain morphology helps to interpret river processes. Consequently morphological variability can be used as an important tool for assessing river processes, hydrological connectivity and river health, which will help us to draw inference about river processes and therefore, management of river health. The present study is documented on West Rapti river, a trans-boundary river flowing through Nepal and India, from its source to confluence with Ghaghra river in India. The river shows a significant morphological variability throughout its course. The present study tries to find out factors and processes responsible for the morphological variability of the river and in which way it can be applied in river management practices. For this purpose channel and floodplain morphology of West Rapti river was mapped as accurately as possible and then on the basis of process-form interactions, inferences are drawn to understand factors of morphological variability. The study shows that the valley setting of West Rapti river, in the Himalayan region, is confined and somewhere partly confined whereas, channel of the West Rapti river is single thread in most part of Himalayan region and braided in valley region. In the foothill region valley is unconfined and channel is braided, in middle part channel is meandering and valley is unconfined, whereas, channel is anthropogenically altered in the lower part of the course. Due to this the morphology of West Rapti river is highly diverse. These morphological variability are produced by different geomorphic processes. Therefore, for any river management it is essential to sustain these morphological variability so that the river could not cross the geomorphic threshold and environmental flow of the river along with the biodiversity of riparian region is maintained.Keywords: channel morphology, environmental flow, floodplain morphology, geomorphic threshold
Procedia PDF Downloads 3711243 Machinability Analysis in Drilling Flax Fiber-Reinforced Polylactic Acid Bio-Composite Laminates
Authors: Amirhossein Lotfi, Huaizhong Li, Dzung Viet Dao
Abstract:
Interest in natural fiber-reinforced composites (NFRC) is progressively growing both in terms of academia research and industrial applications thanks to their abundant advantages such as low cost, biodegradability, eco-friendly nature and relatively good mechanical properties. However, their widespread use is still presumed as challenging because of the specificity of their non-homogeneous structure, limited knowledge on their machinability characteristics and parameter settings, to avoid defects associated with the machining process. The present work is aimed to investigate the effect of the cutting tool geometry and material on the drilling-induced delamination, thrust force and hole quality produced when drilling a fully biodegradable flax/poly (lactic acid) composite laminate. Three drills with different geometries and material were used at different drilling conditions to evaluate the machinability of the fabricated composites. The experimental results indicated that the choice of cutting tool, in terms of material and geometry, has a noticeable influence on the cutting thrust force and subsequently drilling-induced damages. The lower value of thrust force and better hole quality was observed using high-speed steel (HSS) drill, whereas Carbide drill (with point angle of 130o) resulted in the highest value of thrust force. Carbide drill presented higher wear resistance and stability in variation of thrust force with a number of holes drilled, while HSS drill showed the lower value of thrust force during the drilling process. Finally, within the selected cutting range, the delamination damage increased noticeably with feed rate and moderately with spindle speed.Keywords: natural fiber reinforced composites, delamination, thrust force, machinability
Procedia PDF Downloads 1271242 AI-Assisted Business Chinese Writing: Comparing the Textual Performances Between Independent Writing and Collaborative Writing
Authors: Stephanie Liu Lu
Abstract:
With the proliferation of artificial intelligence tools in the field of education, it is crucial to explore their impact on language learning outcomes. This paper examines the use of AI tools, such as ChatGPT, in practical writing within business Chinese teaching to investigate how AI can enhance practical writing skills and teaching effectiveness. The study involved third and fourth-year university students majoring in accounting and finance from a university in Hong Kong within the context of a business correspondence writing class. Students were randomly assigned to a control group, who completed business letter writing independently, and an experimental group, who completed the writing with the assistance of AI. In the latter, the AI-assisted business letters were initially drafted by the students issuing commands and interacting with the AI tool, followed by the students' revisions of the draft. The paper assesses the performance of both groups in terms of grammatical expression, communicative effect, and situational awareness. Additionally, the study collected dialogue texts from interactions between students and the AI tool to explore factors that affect text generation and the potential impact of AI on enhancing students' communicative and identity awareness. By collecting and comparing textual performances, it was found that students assisted by AI showed better situational awareness, as well as more skilled organization and grammar. However, the research also revealed that AI-generated articles frequently lacked a proper balance of identity and writing purpose due to limitations in students' communicative awareness and expression during the instruction and interaction process. Furthermore, the revision of drafts also tested the students' linguistic foundation, logical thinking abilities, and practical workplace experience. Therefore, integrating AI tools and related teaching into the curriculum is key to the future of business Chinese teaching.Keywords: AI-assistance, business Chinese, textual analysis, language education
Procedia PDF Downloads 541241 Trend Analysis of Annual Total Precipitation Data in Konya
Authors: Naci Büyükkaracığan
Abstract:
Hydroclimatic observation values are used in the planning of the project of water resources. Climate variables are the first of the values used in planning projects. At the same time, the climate system is a complex and interactive system involving the atmosphere, land surfaces, snow and bubbles, the oceans and other water structures. The amount and distribution of precipitation, which is an important climate parameter, is a limiting environmental factor for dispersed living things. Trend analysis is applied to the detection of the presence of a pattern or trend in the data set. Many trends work in different parts of the world are usually made for the determination of climate change. The detection and attribution of past trends and variability in climatic variables is essential for explaining potential future alteration resulting from anthropogenic activities. Parametric and non-parametric tests are used for determining the trends in climatic variables. In this study, trend tests were applied to annual total precipitation data obtained in period of 1972 and 2012, in the Konya Basin. Non-parametric trend tests, (Sen’s T, Spearman’s Rho, Mann-Kendal, Sen’s T trend, Wald-Wolfowitz) and parametric test (mean square) were applied to annual total precipitations of 15 stations for trend analysis. The linear slopes (change per unit time) of trends are calculated by using a non-parametric estimator developed by Sen. The beginning of trends is determined by using the Mann-Kendall rank correlation test. In addition, homogeneities in precipitation trends are tested by using a method developed by Van Belle and Hughes. As a result of tests, negative linear slopes were found in annual total precipitations in Konya.Keywords: trend analysis, precipitation, hydroclimatology, Konya
Procedia PDF Downloads 2151240 Cement Bond Characteristics of Artificially Fabricated Sandstones
Authors: Ashirgul Kozhagulova, Ainash Shabdirova, Galym Tokazhanov, Minh Nguyen
Abstract:
The synthetic rocks have been advantageous over the natural rocks in terms of availability and the consistent studying the impact of a particular parameter. The artificial rocks can be fabricated using variety of techniques such as mixing sand and Portland cement or gypsum, firing the mixture of sand and fine powder of borosilicate glass or by in-situ precipitation of calcite solution. In this study, sodium silicate solution has been used as the cementing agent for the quartz sand. The molded soft cylindrical sandstone samples are placed in the gas-tight pressure vessel, where the hardening of the material takes place as the chemical reaction between carbon dioxide and the silicate solution progresses. The vessel allows uniform disperse of carbon dioxide and control over the ambient gas pressure. Current paper shows how the bonding material is initially distributed in the intergranular space and the surface of the sand particles by the usage of Electron Microscopy and the Energy Dispersive Spectroscopy. During the study, the strength of the cement bond as a function of temperature is observed. The impact of cementing agent dosage on the micro and macro characteristics of the sandstone is investigated. The analysis of the cement bond at micro level helps to trace the changes to particles bonding damage after a potential yielding. Shearing behavior and compressional response have been examined resulting in the estimation of the shearing resistance and cohesion force of the sandstone. These are considered to be main input values to the mathematical prediction models of sand production from weak clastic oil reservoir formations.Keywords: artificial sanstone, cement bond, microstructure, SEM, triaxial shearing
Procedia PDF Downloads 1661239 Elite Child Athletes Are Our Future: Cardiac Adaptation to Monofin Training in Prepubertal Egyptian Athletes
Authors: Magdy Abouzeid, Nancy Abouzeid, Afaf Salem
Abstract:
Background: The elite child athletes are one who has superior athletic talent. Monofin (a single surface swim fin) swimming already proved to be the most efficient method of swimming for human being. This is a novel descriptive study examining myocardial function indices in prepubertal monofin children. The aim of the present study was to determine the influence of long-term monofin training (LTMT), 36 weeks, 6 times per week, 90 min per unit on Myocardial function adaptation in elite child monofin athletes. Methods: 14 elite monofin children aged 11.95 years (± 1.09 yr) took part for (LTMT). All subjects underwent two-dimension, M-mode, and Doppler echocardiography before and after training to evaluate cardiac dimensions and function; septal and posterior wall thickness. Statistical methods of SPSS, means ± SD and paired t test, % of improvement were used. Findings: There was significant difference (p<0.01) and % improvement for all echocardiography parameter after (LTMT). Inter ventricular septal thickness in diastole and in systole increased by 27.9 % and 42.75 %. Left ventricular end systolic dimension and diastole increased by 16.81 % and 42.7 % respectively. Posterior wall thickness in systole very highly increased by 283.3 % and in diastole increased by 51.78 %. Left ventricular mass in diastole and in systole increased by 44.8 % and 40.1 % respectively. Stroke volume (SV) and resting heart rate (HR) significant changed (sv) 25 %, (HR) 14.7 %. Interpretation: the unique swim fin tool and create propulsion and overcome resistance. Further researches are needed to determine the effects of monofin training on right ventricular in child athletes.Keywords: prepubertal, monofin training, heart athlete's, elite child athlete, echocardiography
Procedia PDF Downloads 3371238 Utilization of Extracted Spirogyra sp. Media Fermented by Gluconacetobacter Xylinum for Cellulose Production as Raw Material for Paper Product
Authors: T. S. Desak Ketut, A.n. Isna, A.a. Ayu, D. P. Ririn, Suharjono Hadiatullah
Abstract:
The requirement of paper from year to year rise rapidly. The raising of cellulose requirement in paper production caused increasing of wood requirement with the effect that limited forest areal because of deforestation. Alternative cellulose that can be used for making paper is microbial cellulose. The objective of this research are to know the effectivity fermentation media Spirogyra sp. by Gluconacetobacter xylinum for cellulose production as material for the making of paper and to know effect composition bacterial cellulose composite product of Gluconacetobacter xylinum in Spirogyra sp. The method, was used, is as follow, 1) the effect assay from variation composition of fermentation media to bacterial cellulose production by Gluconacetobacter xylinum. 2) The effect assay of composition bacterial cellulose fermentation producted by Gluconacetobacter xylinum in extracted Spirogyra media to paper quality. The result of this research is variation fermentation media Spirogyra sp. affect to production of cellulose by Gluconacetobacter xylinum. Thus, result showed by the highest value and significantly different in thickness parameter, dry weight and wet weight of nata in sucrose concentration 7,5 % and urea 0,75 %. Composition composite of bacterial cellulose from fermentation product by Gluconacetobacter xylinum in media Spirogyra sp. affect to paper quality from wet nata and dry nata. Parameters thickness, weight, water absorpsion, density and gramatur showed highest result in sucrose concentration 7,5 % and urea concentration 0,75 %, except paper density from dry nata had highest result in sucrose and urea concentration 0%.Keywords: cellulose, fermentation media, , Gluconacetobacter xylinum, paper, Spirogyra sp.
Procedia PDF Downloads 3411237 Forecast of the Small Wind Turbines Sales with Replacement Purchases and with or without Account of Price Changes
Authors: V. Churkin, M. Lopatin
Abstract:
The purpose of the paper is to estimate the US small wind turbines market potential and forecast the small wind turbines sales in the US. The forecasting method is based on the application of the Bass model and the generalized Bass model of innovations diffusion under replacement purchases. In the work an exponential distribution is used for modeling of replacement purchases. Only one parameter of such distribution is determined by average lifetime of small wind turbines. The identification of the model parameters is based on nonlinear regression analysis on the basis of the annual sales statistics which has been published by the American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) since 2001 up to 2012. The estimation of the US average market potential of small wind turbines (for adoption purchases) without account of price changes is 57080 (confidence interval from 49294 to 64866 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 15 years, and 62402 (confidence interval from 54154 to 70648 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 20 years. In the first case the explained variance is 90,7%, while in the second - 91,8%. The effect of the wind turbines price changes on their sales was estimated using generalized Bass model. This required a price forecast. To do this, the polynomial regression function, which is based on the Berkeley Lab statistics, was used. The estimation of the US average market potential of small wind turbines (for adoption purchases) in that case is 42542 (confidence interval from 32863 to 52221 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 15 years, and 47426 (confidence interval from 36092 to 58760 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 20 years. In the first case the explained variance is 95,3%, while in the second –95,3%.Keywords: bass model, generalized bass model, replacement purchases, sales forecasting of innovations, statistics of sales of small wind turbines in the United States
Procedia PDF Downloads 346