Search results for: tuning parameter selection
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 4523

Search results for: tuning parameter selection

1703 Developing Pavement Maintenance Management System (PMMS) for Small Cities, Aswan City Case Study

Authors: Ayman Othman, Tallat Ali

Abstract:

A pavement maintenance management system (PMMS) was developed for the city of Aswan as a model of a small city to provide the road maintenance department in Aswan city with the capabilities for comprehensive planning of the maintenance activities needed to put the internal pavement network into desired physical condition in view of maintenance budget constraints. The developed system consists of three main stages. First is the inventory & condition survey stage where the internal pavement network of Aswan city was inventoried and its actual conditions were rated in segments of 100 meters length. Second is the analysis stage where pavement condition index (PCI) was calculated and the most appropriate maintenance actions were assigned for each segment. The total maintenance budget was also estimated and a parameter based ranking criteria were developed to prioritize maintenance activities when the available maintenance budget is not sufficient. Finally comes the packaging stage where approved maintenance budget is packed into maintenance projects for field implementation. System results indicate that, the system output maintenance budget is very reasonable and the system output maintenance programs agree to a great extent with the actual maintenance needs of the network. Condition survey of Aswan city road network showed that roughness is the most dominate distress. In general, the road network can be considered in a fairly reasonable condition, however, the developed PMMS needs to be officially adapted to maintain the road network in a desirable condition and to prevent further deterioration.

Keywords: pavement, maintenance, management, system, distresses, survey, ranking

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1702 The Effect of Damper Attachment on Tennis Racket Vibration: A Simulation Study

Authors: Kuangyou B. Cheng

Abstract:

Tennis is among the most popular sports worldwide. During ball-racket impact, substantial vibration transmitted to the hand/arm may be the cause of “tennis elbow”. Although it is common for athletes to attach a “vibration damper” to the spring-bed, the effect remains unclear. To avoid subjective factors and errors in data recording, the effect of damper attachment on racket handle end vibration was investigated with computer simulation. The tennis racket was modeled as a beam with free-free ends (similar to loosely holding the racket). Finite difference method with 40 segments was used to simulate ball-racket impact response. The effect of attaching a damper was modeled as having a segment with increased mass. It was found that the damper has the largest effect when installed at the spring-bed center. However, this is not a practical location due to interference with ball-racket impact. Vibration amplitude changed very slightly when the damper was near the top or bottom of the spring-bed. The damper works only slightly better at the bottom than at the top of the spring-bed. In addition, heavier dampers work better than lighter ones. These simulation results were comparable with experimental recordings in which the selection of damper locations was restricted by ball impact locations. It was concluded that mathematical model simulations were able to objectively investigate the effect of damper attachment on racket vibration. In addition, with very slight difference in grip end vibration amplitude when the damper was attached at the top or bottom of the spring-bed, whether the effect can really be felt by athletes is questionable.

Keywords: finite difference, impact, modeling, vibration amplitude

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1701 Cloud Shield: Model to Secure User Data While Using Content Delivery Network Services

Authors: Rachna Jain, Sushila Madan, Bindu Garg

Abstract:

Cloud computing is the key powerhouse in numerous organizations due to shifting of their data to the cloud environment. In recent years it has been observed that cloud-based-services are being used on large scale for content storage, distribution and processing. Various issues have been observed in cloud computing environment that need to be addressed. Security and privacy are found topmost concern area. In this paper, a novel security model is proposed to secure data by utilizing CDN services like image to icon conversion. CDN Service is a content delivery service which converts an image to icon, word to pdf & Latex to pdf etc. Presented model is used to convert an image into icon by keeping image secret. Here security of image is imparted so that image should be encrypted and decrypted by data owners only. It is also discussed in the paper that how server performs multiplication and selection on encrypted data without decryption. The data can be image file, word file, audio or video file. Moreover, the proposed model is capable enough to multiply images, encrypt them and send to a server application for conversion. Eventually, the prime objective is to encrypt an image and convert the encrypted image to image Icon by utilizing homomorphic encryption.

Keywords: cloud computing, user data security, homomorphic encryption, image multiplication, CDN service

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1700 Electrical Decomposition of Time Series of Power Consumption

Authors: Noura Al Akkari, Aurélie Foucquier, Sylvain Lespinats

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Load monitoring is a management process for energy consumption towards energy savings and energy efficiency. Non Intrusive Load Monitoring (NILM) is one method of load monitoring used for disaggregation purposes. NILM is a technique for identifying individual appliances based on the analysis of the whole residence data retrieved from the main power meter of the house. Our NILM framework starts with data acquisition, followed by data preprocessing, then event detection, feature extraction, then general appliance modeling and identification at the final stage. The event detection stage is a core component of NILM process since event detection techniques lead to the extraction of appliance features. Appliance features are required for the accurate identification of the household devices. In this research work, we aim at developing a new event detection methodology with accurate load disaggregation to extract appliance features. Time-domain features extracted are used for tuning general appliance models for appliance identification and classification steps. We use unsupervised algorithms such as Dynamic Time Warping (DTW). The proposed method relies on detecting areas of operation of each residential appliance based on the power demand. Then, detecting the time at which each selected appliance changes its states. In order to fit with practical existing smart meters capabilities, we work on low sampling data with a frequency of (1/60) Hz. The data is simulated on Load Profile Generator software (LPG), which was not previously taken into consideration for NILM purposes in the literature. LPG is a numerical software that uses behaviour simulation of people inside the house to generate residential energy consumption data. The proposed event detection method targets low consumption loads that are difficult to detect. Also, it facilitates the extraction of specific features used for general appliance modeling. In addition to this, the identification process includes unsupervised techniques such as DTW. To our best knowledge, there exist few unsupervised techniques employed with low sampling data in comparison to the many supervised techniques used for such cases. We extract a power interval at which falls the operation of the selected appliance along with a time vector for the values delimiting the state transitions of the appliance. After this, appliance signatures are formed from extracted power, geometrical and statistical features. Afterwards, those formed signatures are used to tune general model types for appliances identification using unsupervised algorithms. This method is evaluated using both simulated data on LPG and real-time Reference Energy Disaggregation Dataset (REDD). For that, we compute performance metrics using confusion matrix based metrics, considering accuracy, precision, recall and error-rate. The performance analysis of our methodology is then compared with other detection techniques previously used in the literature review, such as detection techniques based on statistical variations and abrupt changes (Variance Sliding Window and Cumulative Sum).

Keywords: electrical disaggregation, DTW, general appliance modeling, event detection

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1699 Effect of Diamagnetic Additives on Defects Level of Soft LiTiZn Ferrite Ceramics

Authors: Andrey V. Malyshev, Anna B. Petrova, Anatoly P. Surzhikov

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The article presents the results of the influence of diamagnetic additives on the defects level of ferrite ceramics. For this purpose, we use a previously developed method based on the mathematical analysis of experimental temperature dependences of the initial permeability. A phenomenological expression for the description of such dependence was suggested and an interpretation of its main parameters was given. It was shown, that the main criterion of the integral defects level of ferrite ceramics is the relation of two parameters correlating with elastic stress value in a material. Model samples containing a controlled number of intergranular phase inclusions served to prove the validity of the proposed method, as well as to assess its sensitivity in comparison with the traditional XRD (X-ray diffraction) analysis. The broadening data of diffraction reflexes of model samples have served for such comparison. The defects level data obtained by the proposed method are in good agreement with the X-ray data. The method showed high sensitivity. Therefore, the legitimacy of the selection relationship β/α parameters of phenomenological expression as a characteristic of the elastic state of the ferrite ceramics confirmed. In addition, the obtained data can be used in the detection of non-magnetic phases and testing the optimal sintering production technology of soft magnetic ferrites.

Keywords: cure point, initial permeability, integral defects level, homogeneity

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1698 A Psychophysiological Evaluation of an Effective Recognition Technique Using Interactive Dynamic Virtual Environments

Authors: Mohammadhossein Moghimi, Robert Stone, Pia Rotshtein

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Recording psychological and physiological correlates of human performance within virtual environments and interpreting their impacts on human engagement, ‘immersion’ and related emotional or ‘effective’ states is both academically and technologically challenging. By exposing participants to an effective, real-time (game-like) virtual environment, designed and evaluated in an earlier study, a psychophysiological database containing the EEG, GSR and Heart Rate of 30 male and female gamers, exposed to 10 games, was constructed. Some 174 features were subsequently identified and extracted from a number of windows, with 28 different timing lengths (e.g. 2, 3, 5, etc. seconds). After reducing the number of features to 30, using a feature selection technique, K-Nearest Neighbour (KNN) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) methods were subsequently employed for the classification process. The classifiers categorised the psychophysiological database into four effective clusters (defined based on a 3-dimensional space – valence, arousal and dominance) and eight emotion labels (relaxed, content, happy, excited, angry, afraid, sad, and bored). The KNN and SVM classifiers achieved average cross-validation accuracies of 97.01% (±1.3%) and 92.84% (±3.67%), respectively. However, no significant differences were found in the classification process based on effective clusters or emotion labels.

Keywords: virtual reality, effective computing, effective VR, emotion-based effective physiological database

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1697 Fast Generation of High-Performance Driveshafts: A Digital Approach to Automated Linked Topology and Design Optimization

Authors: Willi Zschiebsch, Alrik Dargel, Sebastian Spitzer, Philipp Johst, Robert Böhm, Niels Modler

Abstract:

In this article, we investigate an approach that digitally links individual development process steps by using the drive shaft of an aircraft engine as a representative example of a fiber polymer composite. Such high-performance, lightweight composite structures have many adjustable parameters that influence the mechanical properties. Only a combination of optimal parameter values can lead to energy efficient lightweight structures. The development tools required for the Engineering Design Process (EDP) are often isolated solutions, and their compatibility with each other is limited. A digital framework is presented in this study, which allows individual specialised tools to be linked via the generated data in such a way that automated optimization across programs becomes possible. This is demonstrated using the example of linking geometry generation with numerical structural analysis. The proposed digital framework for automated design optimization demonstrates the feasibility of developing a complete digital approach to design optimization. The methodology shows promising potential for achieving optimal solutions in terms of mass, material utilization, eigenfrequency, and deformation under lateral load with less development effort. The development of such a framework is an important step towards promoting a more efficient design approach that can lead to stable and balanced results.

Keywords: digital linked process, composite, CFRP, multi-objective, EDP, NSGA-2, NSGA-3, TPE

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1696 Bile Salt Induced Microstructural Changes of Gemini Surfactant Micelles

Authors: Vijaykumar Patel, P. Bahadur

Abstract:

Microstructural evolution of a cationic gemini surfactant 12-4-12 micelles in the presence of bile salts has been investigated using different techniques. A negative value of interaction parameter evaluated from surface tension measurements is a signature of strong synergistic interaction between oppositely charged surfactants. Both the bile salts compete with each other in inducing the micellar transition of 12-4-12 micelles depending on their hydrophobicity. Viscosity measurements disclose that loading of bile salts induces morphological changes in 12-4-12 micelles; sodium deoxycholate is more efficient in altering the aggregation behaviour of 12-4-12 micelles compared to sodium cholate and presents pronounced increase in viscosity and micellar growth which is suppressed at elevated temperatures. A remarkable growth of 12-4-12 micelles in the presence of sodium deoxycholate at low pH has been ascribed to the solubilization of bile acids formed in acidic medium. Small angle neutron scattering experiments provided size and shape of 12-4-12/bile salt mixed micelles are explicated on the basis of hydrophobicity of bile salts. The location of bile salts in micelle was determined from nuclear overhauser effect spectroscopy. The present study characterizes 12-4-12 gemini-bile salt mixed systems which significantly enriches our knowledge, and such a structural transition provides an opportunity to use these bioamphiphiles as delivery vehicles and in some pharmaceutical formulations.

Keywords: gemini surfactants, bile salts, SANS (small angle neutron scattering), NOESY (nuclear overhauser effect spectroscopy)

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1695 Genomic Imprinting as a Possible Epigenetic Cause of Esophageal Atresia

Authors: M. Błoch, P. Karpiński, P. Gasperowicz, R. Płoski, A. Lebioda, P. Skiba, A. Rozensztrauch, D. Patkowski, R. Śmigiel

Abstract:

Introduction: The cause of the isolated form of esophageal atresia has been yet unknown. Objectives: The primary objective of this study was to indicate epigenetic factors which may play an important role in the etiopathogenesis of esophageal atresia. Methods: We recruited a group of 6 pairs of twins, among whom one of the twins developed EA. The selection of such a group for testing allows for excluding external factors (e.g., infections, drugs, toxins) as the cause of the birth defect. The analyzes were performed with the use of genetic material isolated from the whole blood and esophagus tissue of a patient with EA. The reduced representation bisulphite sequencing (RRBS) technique was used to study the change in the genomic imprinting -a change in the expression of genes, which may be the epigenetic cause of EA. Results: In the course of the analyzes, significant hypomethylation and hypermethylation regions were identified. 65 genes with probably increased expression and 65 with decreased expression were selected. These genes have not been marked in literature as possibly pathogenic in esophageal atresia. However, their participation in the pathogenesis of esophageal atresia cannot be clearly excluded. Conclusion: We suggest a role of hypomethylation or hypermethylation of selected genes as one of the possible epigenetic factors in EA pathogenesis. The use of the RRBS technique in the search for the cause of EA is pioneer research; therefore, it seems necessary to extend the research group to new patients with EA. Acknowledgment: The work was supported by the National Science Centre, Poland, under research project 2016/21/N/NZ5/01927.

Keywords: esophageal atresia, epigenetics, embryonic development, surgery, genes expression, twins

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1694 Agriculture Water Quality Evaluation in Minig Basin

Authors: Ben Salah Nahla

Abstract:

The problem of water in Tunisia affects the quality and quantity. Tunisia is in a situation of water shortage. It was estimated that 4.6 Mm3/an. Moreover, the quality of water in Tunisia is also mediocre. In fact, 50% of the water has a high salinity (> 1.5g/l). There are several parameters which affect water quality such as sodium, fluoride. An excess of this parameter may induce some human health. Furthermore, the mining basin area has a problem of industrial waste. This problem may affect the water quality of the groundwater. Therefore, the purpose of this work is to assess the water quality in Basin Mining and the impact of fluorine. For this research, some water samples were done in the field and specific water analysis was implemented in the laboratory. Sampling is carried out on eight drilling in the area of the mining region. In the following, we will look at water view composition, physical and chemical quality. A physical-chemical analysis of water from a survey of the Mining area of Tunisia was performed and showed an excess for the following items: fluorine, sodium, sulfate. So many chemicals may be present in water. However, only a small number of them immediately concern in terms of health in all circumstances. Fluorine (F) is one particular chemical that is considered both necessary for the human body, but an excess of the rate of this chemical causes serious diseases. Sodium fluoride and sodium silicofluoride are more soluble and may spread in animals and plants where their toxicity largest organizations. The more complex particles such as cryolite and fluorite, almost insoluble, are more stable and less toxic. Thereafter, we will study the problem of excess fluorine in the water. The latter intended for human consumption must always comply with the limits for microbiological quality parameters and physical-chemical parameters defined by European standards (1.5 mg/l) and Tunisian (2 mg/l).

Keywords: water, minier basin, fluorine, silicofluoride

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1693 Metabolic Syndrome and Its Effects on Cartilage Degeneration vs Regeneration: A Pilot Study Using Osteoarthritis Biomarkers

Authors: Neena Kanojia, R. K. Kanojia

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Background: Osteoarthritis OA of the knee is one of the leading causes of disability characterized by degeneration of hyaline cartilage combined with reparative processes. Its strong association with metabolic syndrome is postulated to be due to both mechanical and biochemical factors. Our study aims to study differential effect of metabolic risk factors on cartilage degeneration and regeneration at biomarker level. Design: After screening 281 patients presenting with knee pain, 41 patients who met the selection criteria were included and were divided into metabolic MetS OA and non-metabolic Non-MetS OA phenotypes using National Cholesterol Education Programme-Adult Treatment Panel-III NCEP ATP III criteria for metabolic syndrome. Serum Cartilage Oligomeric Matrix Protein COMP and Procollagen type IIA N terminal Propeptide PIIANP levels were used as tools to assess cartilage degeneration and regeneration, respectively. Results: 22 among 41 patients 53.66% had metabolic syndrome. Covariates like age, gender, Kellgren Lawrence KL grades were comparable in both groups. MetS OA group showed significant increase in serum COMP levels (p 0.03 with no significant effect on serum PIIANP levels (p 0.46. Hypertriglyceridemia showed independent association with both cartilage anabolism (p 0.03 and catabolism (p 0.03. Conclusion: Metabolic syndrome, though has no effect on cartilage regeneration tends to shift cartilage homeostasis towards degeneration with hypertriglyceridemia showing significant independent effect on cartilage metabolism.

Keywords: metabolic, syndrome, cartilage, degernation

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1692 Prevalence of Selected Cardiovascular Risk Factors Obesity among University of Venda Staff

Authors: Avhasei Dorothy Rasifudi, Josephine Mandizha

Abstract:

Cardiovascular risk factors continue to be the leading cause of death in the majority of developed and developing countries. In 2011, the World Health Organization reported that every year an estimated 17 million people globally die of CVD, representing 30% of all global deaths, particularly caused by heart attacks and strokes. The purpose of the study was to determine and describe the prevalence of selected cardiovascular risk factors among university of Venda staff. A cross-sectional study was conducted among 100 staff aged 20-65 years. The anthropometric measurements were conducted in accordance to and with standardized procedures advocated by the International Society for the Advanced Kinanthropometry. Weight, Height, waist circumference and hip circumference were measured for calculation of body mass index and waist-hip ratio. Blood pressure was measured using a Heine cuff and sphygmomanometer. Questionnaire was administered to gather demographic details and cardiovascular risk factors of hypertension and obesity. Data were analyzed using mean and standard deviation. The parameter t-test was applied to test significance level at p ≤ 0.05 between sexes. The statistical significance was set at p ≤ 0.05. The prevalence of hypertension was 23% with the highest prevalence amongst those aged 40 years and above. Factors found to be to be significantly associated with hypertension were gender, age, physical inactivity and family history. Prevalence of obesity was 43%, with the highest prevalence among those aged 40 years. The factors associated with obesity were diet, age and physical activity. The prevalence of hypertension and obesity in the study were high.

Keywords: cardiovascular, prevalence, risk factors, staff

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1691 Constitutive Model for Analysis of Long-Term Municipal Solid Waste Landfill Settlement

Authors: Irena Basaric Ikodinovic, Dragoslav Rakic, Mirjana Vukicevic, Sanja Jockovic, Jovana Jankovic Pantic

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Large long-term settlement occurs at the municipal solid waste landfills over an extended period of time which may lead to breakage of the geomembrane, damage of the cover systems, other protective systems or facilities constructed on top of a landfill. Also, municipal solid waste is an extremely heterogeneous material and its properties vary over location and time within a landfill. These material characteristics require the formulation of a new constitutive model to predict the long-term settlement of municipal solid waste. The paper presents a new constitutive model which is formulated to describe the mechanical behavior of municipal solid waste. Model is based on Modified Cam Clay model and the critical state soil mechanics framework incorporating time-dependent components: mechanical creep and biodegradation of municipal solid waste. The formulated constitutive model is optimized and defined with eight input parameters: five Modified Cam Clay parameters, one parameter for mechanical creep and two parameters for biodegradation of municipal solid waste. Thereafter, the constitutive model is implemented in the software suite for finite element analysis (ABAQUS) and numerical analysis of the experimental landfill settlement is performed. The proposed model predicts the total settlement which is in good agreement with field measured settlement at the experimental landfill.

Keywords: constitutive model, finite element analysis, municipal solid waste, settlement

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1690 The Impact of Environment Psychology on Customer Primary Emotions with Special Reference to Conference Travellers to Sri Lanka

Authors: Koswaththage Dilushika Sewwandi, Aminda Lakmal

Abstract:

From an activity reserved for the privileged few only some decades ago, tourism today moves more than one billion people across international borders each year. As the main part of the tourism industry, MICE tourism came to the floor and nowadays it became the main part of tourism especially in developing countries. Currently due to the fast development projects and infrastructure building, focus on tourism development in Sri Lanka could earn a global identity by practicing MICE tourism especially international conferences. Examine the behavior of conference travelers who looking for Sri Lanka as a conference destination must be required. Since the tourism industry highly involved with the personal factor and the destination selections taken by human beings it is vital to explore the factors affecting to their primary emotions which are shaped up with environmental factors. The Environmental Psychology studies the cognitive and affective behavior of human beings and based on that this study was carried out to examine the impact of environment psychology on customer primary emotions; with special reference to conference travelers to Sri Lanka. Finally, the study concludes with identifying the number of environmental factors as Accommodation, Travel Mode and Hotel Atmosphere that could impact the customer primary emotions of conference travelers to Sri Lanka.

Keywords: MICE tourism, envionmental psychology, primary emotions, destination selection

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1689 Phase Behavior Modelling of Libyan Near-Critical Gas-Condensate Field

Authors: M. Khazam, M. Altawil, A. Eljabri

Abstract:

Fluid properties in states near a vapor-liquid critical region are the most difficult to measure and to predict with EoS models. The principal model difficulty is that near-critical property variations do not follow the same mathematics as at conditions far away from the critical region. Libyan NC98 field in Sirte basin is a typical example of near critical fluid characterized by high initial condensate gas ratio (CGR) greater than 160 bbl/MMscf and maximum liquid drop-out of 25%. The objective of this paper is to model NC98 phase behavior with the proper selection of EoS parameters and also to model reservoir depletion versus gas cycling option using measured PVT data and EoS Models. The outcomes of our study revealed that, for accurate gas and condensate recovery forecast during depletion, the most important PVT data to match are the gas phase Z-factor and C7+ fraction as functions of pressure. Reasonable match, within -3% error, was achieved for ultimate condensate recovery at abandonment pressure of 1500 psia. The smooth transition from gas-condensate to volatile oil was fairly simulated by the tuned PR-EoS. The predicted GOC was approximately at 14,380 ftss. The optimum gas cycling scheme, in order to maximize condensate recovery, should not be performed at pressures less than 5700 psia. The contribution of condensate vaporization for such field is marginal, within 8% to 14%, compared to gas-gas miscible displacement. Therefore, it is always recommended, if gas recycle scheme to be considered for this field, to start it at the early stage of field development.

Keywords: EoS models, gas-condensate, gas cycling, near critical fluid

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1688 Identifying of Hybrid Lines for Lpx-B1 Gene in Durum Wheat

Authors: Özlem Ateş Sönmezoğlu, Begüm Terzi, Ahmet Yıldırım, Ramazan Özbey

Abstract:

The basic criteria which determine durum wheat quality is its suitability for pasta processing that is pasta making quality. Bright yellow color is a desired property in pasta products. Durum wheat pasta making quality is affected by grain pigment content and oxidative enzymes which affect adversely bright yellow color. Of the oxidative enzymes, lipoxygenase LOX is the most effective one on oxidative bleaching of yellow pigments in durum wheat products. Thus, wheat cultivars that are high in yellow pigments but low in LOX enzyme activity should be preferred for the production of pasta with high color quality. The aim of this study was to reduce lipoxygenase activities of the backcross durum wheat lines that were previously improved for their protein quality. For this purpose, two advanced lines with different parents (TMB2 and TMB3) were used recurrent parents. Also, Gediz-75 wheat with low LOX enzyme activity was used as the gene source. In all of the generations, backcrossed plants carrying the targeted gene region (Lpx-B1.1) were selected using SSR markers by marker assisted selection method. As a result, the study will be completed in three years instead of six years required in a classical backcross breeding study, leading to the development of high-quality candidate varieties. This research has been financially supported by TÜBİTAK (Project No: 112T910).

Keywords: durum wheat, lipoxygenase, LOX, Lpx-B1.1, MAS, Triticum durum

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1687 Analyzing the Impact of Migration on HIV and AIDS Incidence Cases in Malaysia

Authors: Ofosuhene O. Apenteng, Noor Azina Ismail

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The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) that causes acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) remains a global cause of morbidity and mortality. It has caused panic since its emergence. Relationships between migration and HIV/AIDS have become complex. In the absence of prospectively designed studies, dynamic mathematical models that take into account the migration movement which will give very useful information. We have explored the utility of mathematical models in understanding transmission dynamics of HIV and AIDS and in assessing the magnitude of how migration has impact on the disease. The model was calibrated to HIV and AIDS incidence data from Malaysia Ministry of Health from the period of 1986 to 2011 using Bayesian analysis with combination of Markov chain Monte Carlo method (MCMC) approach to estimate the model parameters. From the estimated parameters, the estimated basic reproduction number was 22.5812. The rate at which the susceptible individual moved to HIV compartment has the highest sensitivity value which is more significant as compared to the remaining parameters. Thus, the disease becomes unstable. This is a big concern and not good indicator from the public health point of view since the aim is to stabilize the epidemic at the disease-free equilibrium. However, these results suggest that the government as a policy maker should make further efforts to curb illegal activities performed by migrants. It is shown that our models reflect considerably the dynamic behavior of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Malaysia and eventually could be used strategically for other countries.

Keywords: epidemic model, reproduction number, HIV, MCMC, parameter estimation

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1686 Prediction of PM₂.₅ Concentration in Ulaanbaatar with Deep Learning Models

Authors: Suriya

Abstract:

Rapid socio-economic development and urbanization have led to an increasingly serious air pollution problem in Ulaanbaatar (UB), the capital of Mongolia. PM₂.₅ pollution has become the most pressing aspect of UB air pollution. Therefore, monitoring and predicting PM₂.₅ concentration in UB is of great significance for the health of the local people and environmental management. As of yet, very few studies have used models to predict PM₂.₅ concentrations in UB. Using data from 0:00 on June 1, 2018, to 23:00 on April 30, 2020, we proposed two deep learning models based on Bayesian-optimized LSTM (Bayes-LSTM) and CNN-LSTM. We utilized hourly observed data, including Himawari8 (H8) aerosol optical depth (AOD), meteorology, and PM₂.₅ concentration, as input for the prediction of PM₂.₅ concentrations. The correlation strengths between meteorology, AOD, and PM₂.₅ were analyzed using the gray correlation analysis method; the comparison of the performance improvement of the model by using the AOD input value was tested, and the performance of these models was evaluated using mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE). The prediction accuracies of Bayes-LSTM and CNN-LSTM deep learning models were both improved when AOD was included as an input parameter. Improvement of the prediction accuracy of the CNN-LSTM model was particularly enhanced in the non-heating season; in the heating season, the prediction accuracy of the Bayes-LSTM model slightly improved, while the prediction accuracy of the CNN-LSTM model slightly decreased. We propose two novel deep learning models for PM₂.₅ concentration prediction in UB, Bayes-LSTM, and CNN-LSTM deep learning models. Pioneering the use of AOD data from H8 and demonstrating the inclusion of AOD input data improves the performance of our two proposed deep learning models.

Keywords: deep learning, AOD, PM2.5, prediction, Ulaanbaatar

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1685 Assessing Level of Pregnancy Rate and Milk Yield in Indian Murrah Buffaloes

Authors: V. Jamuna, A. K. Chakravarty, C. S. Patil, Vijay Kumar, M. A. Mir, Rakesh Kumar

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Intense selection of buffaloes for milk production at organized herds of the country without giving due attention to fertility traits viz. pregnancy rate has lead to deterioration in their performances. Aim of study is to develop an optimum model for predicting pregnancy rate and to assess the level of pregnancy rate with respect to milk production Murrah buffaloes. Data pertaining to 1224 lactation records of Murrah buffaloes spread over a period 21 years were analyzed and it was observed that pregnancy rate depicted negative phenotypic association with lactation milk yield (-0.08 ± 0.04). For developing optimum model for pregnancy rate in Murrah buffaloes seven simple and multiple regression models were developed. Among the seven models, model II having only Service period as an independent reproduction variable, was found to be the best prediction model, based on the four statistical criterions (high coefficient of determination (R 2), low mean sum of squares due to error (MSSe), conceptual predictive (CP) value, and Bayesian information criterion (BIC). For standardizing the level of fertility with milk production, pregnancy rate was classified into seven classes with the increment of 10% in all parities, life time and their corresponding average pregnancy rate in relation to the average lactation milk yield (MY).It was observed that to achieve around 2000 kg MY which can be considered optimum for Indian Murrah buffaloes, level of pregnancy rate should be in between 30-50%.

Keywords: life time, pregnancy rate, production, service period, standardization

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1684 Closed-Loop Supply Chain: A Study of Bullwhip Effect Using Simulation

Authors: Siddhartha Paul, Debabrata Das

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Closed-loop supply chain (CLSC) management focuses on integrating forward and reverse flow of material as well as information to maximize value creation over the entire life-cycle of a product. Bullwhip effect in supply chain management refers to the phenomenon where a small variation in customers’ demand results in larger variation of orders at the upstream levels of supply chain. Since the quality and quantity of products returned to the collection centers (as a part of reverse logistics process) are uncertain, bullwhip effect is inevitable in CLSC. Therefore, in the present study, first, through an extensive literature survey, we identify all the important factors related to forward as well as reverse supply chain which causes bullwhip effect in CLSC. Second, we develop a system dynamics model to study the interrelationship among the factors and their effect on the performance of overall CLSC. Finally, the results of the simulation study suggest that demand forecasting, lead times, information sharing, inventory and work in progress adjustment rate, supply shortages, batch ordering, price variations, erratic human behavior, parameter correcting, delivery time delays, return rate of used products, manufacturing and remanufacturing capacity constraints are the important factors which have a significant influence on system’s performance, specifically on bullwhip effect in a CLSC.

Keywords: bullwhip effect, closed-loop supply chain, system dynamics, variance ratio

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1683 Theoretical and Experimental Analysis of Hard Material Machining

Authors: Rajaram Kr. Gupta, Bhupendra Kumar, T. V. K. Gupta, D. S. Ramteke

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Machining of hard materials is a recent technology for direct production of work-pieces. The primary challenge in machining these materials is selection of cutting tool inserts which facilitates an extended tool life and high-precision machining of the component. These materials are widely for making precision parts for the aerospace industry. Nickel-based alloys are typically used in extreme environment applications where a combination of strength, corrosion resistance and oxidation resistance material characteristics are required. The present paper reports the theoretical and experimental investigations carried out to understand the influence of machining parameters on the response parameters. Considering the basic machining parameters (speed, feed and depth of cut) a study has been conducted to observe their influence on material removal rate, surface roughness, cutting forces and corresponding tool wear. Experiments are designed and conducted with the help of Central Composite Rotatable Design technique. The results reveals that for a given range of process parameters, material removal rate is favorable for higher depths of cut and low feed rate for cutting forces. Low feed rates and high values of rotational speeds are suitable for better finish and higher tool life.

Keywords: speed, feed, depth of cut, roughness, cutting force, flank wear

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1682 The Importance of Downstream Supply Chain in Supply Chain Risk Management: Multi-Objective Optimization

Authors: Zohreh Khojasteh-Ghamari, Takashi Irohara

Abstract:

One of the efficient ways in supply chain risk management is avoiding the interruption in Supply Chain (SC) before it occurs. Although the majority of the organizations focus on their first-tier suppliers to avoid risk in the SC, studies show that in only 60 percent of the disruption cases the reason is first tier suppliers. In the 40 percent of the SC disruptions, the reason is downstream SC, which is the second tier and lower. Due to the increasing complexity and interrelation of modern supply chains, the SC elements have become difficult to trace. Moreover, studies show that there is a vital need to better understand the integration of risk and visibility, especially in the context of multiple objectives. In this study, we propose a multi-objective programming model to avoid disruption in SC. The objective of this study is evaluating the effect of downstream SCV on managing supply chain risk. We propose a multi-objective mathematical programming model with the objective functions of minimizing the total cost and maximizing the downstream supply chain visibility (SCV). The decision variable is supplier selection. We assume there are several manufacturers and several candidate suppliers. For each manufacturer, our model proposes the best suppliers with the lowest cost and maximum visibility in downstream supply chain. We examine the applicability of the model by numerical examples. We also define several scenarios for datasets and observe the tendency. The results show that minimum visibility in downstream SC is needed to have a safe SC network.

Keywords: downstream supply chain, optimization, supply chain risk, supply chain visibility

Procedia PDF Downloads 241
1681 Mixed Mode Fracture Analyses Using Finite Element Method of Edge Cracked Heavy Spinning Annulus Pulley

Authors: Bijit Kalita, K. V. N. Surendra

Abstract:

Rotating disk is one of the most indispensable parts of a rotating machine. Rotating disk has found many applications in the diverging field of science and technology. In this paper, we have taken into consideration the problem of a heavy spinning disk mounted on a rotor system acted upon by boundary traction. Finite element modelling is used at various loading condition to determine the mixed mode stress intensity factors. The effect of combined shear and normal traction on the boundary is incorporated in the analysis under the action of gravity. The variation near the crack tip is characterized in terms of the stress intensity factor (SIF) with an aim to find the SIF for a wide range of parameters. The results of the finite element analyses carried out on the compressed disk of a belt pulley arrangement using fracture mechanics concepts are shown. A total of hundred cases of the problem are solved for each of the variations in loading arc parameter and crack orientation using finite element models of the disc under compression. All models were prepared and analyzed for the uncracked disk, disk with a single crack at different orientation emanating from shaft hole as well as for a disc with pair of cracks emerging from the same center hole. Curves are plotted for various loading conditions. Finally, crack propagation paths are determined using kink angle concepts.

Keywords: crack-tip deformations, static loading, stress concentration, stress intensity factor

Procedia PDF Downloads 136
1680 Structural Behavior of Non-Prismatic Mono-Symmetric Beam

Authors: Nandini B. Nagaraju, Punya D. Gowda, S. Aishwarya, Benjamin Rohit

Abstract:

This paper attempts to understand the structural behavior of non-prismatic channel beams subjected to bending through finite element (FE) analysis. The present study aims at shedding some light on how tapered channel beams behave by studying the effect of taper ratio on structural behavior. As a weight reduction is always desired in aerospace structures beams are tapered in order to obtain highest structural efficiency. FE analysis has been performed to study the effect of taper ratio on linear deflection, lateral torsional buckling, non-linear parameters, stresses and dynamic parameters. Taper ratio tends to affect the mechanics of tapered beams innocuously and adversely. Consequently, it becomes important to understand and document the mechanics of channel tapered beams. Channel beams generally have low torsional rigidity due to the off-shear loading. The effect of loading type and location of applied load have been studied for flange taper, web taper and symmetric taper for different conditions. Among these, as the taper ratio is increased, the torsional angular deflection increases but begins to decrease when the beam is web tapered and symmetrically tapered for a mid web loaded beam. But when loaded through the shear center, an increase in the torsional angular deflection can be observed with increase in taper ratio. It should be considered which parameter is tapered to obtain the highest efficiency.

Keywords: channel beams, tapered beams, lateral torsional bucking, shear centre

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1679 Conservative Treatment Versus Percutaneous Wire Fixation in treatment of Distal Radial Fracture in Elderly

Authors: Abdelfatah Elsenosy, Mahmoud Ebrahim

Abstract:

Background: Distal radius fractures are commonly encountered in orthopedic practice, especially in elderly patients. A number of clinical papers have supported the idea that anatomic restoration of the distal end of the radius is essential to gain superior results. Aim and objectives: The aim of the study is to systematically review the literature for the management of distal end radius in elderly persons (conservative treatment versus percutaneous wire fixation) as regards radiological and functional outcomes. Subjects and methods: Studies were identified from the Medline, Cochrane, EMBASE, and Google Scholar databases were searched until 2019 using combinations of the following search terms: distal radius fracture, conservative treatment, non-operative treatment, and nonsurgical treatment, surgical treatment, operative, elderly, and older. Reference lists of relevant studies were manually searched. Results: There was no statistical significance difference between CI and PKF groups’ frequency of complication in all of the selected studies. Based on the results, we recommend more analysis regarding every parameter of the radiographic and functional results and specific complications related to each fixation need to be accomplished, which requires more Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) with high quality. Conclusion: Surgical treatment seems to be more effective distal radius fracture compared with conservative treatment when the radiographic outcomes were analyzed, and no significant differences were detected in the functional outcomes and complication rate.

Keywords: radius, fracture, surgical, RCTs, conservative, radiographic, outcomes, orthopedic

Procedia PDF Downloads 140
1678 Comparison of Corneal Curvature Measurements Conducted with Tomey AO-2000® and the Current Standard Biometer IOL Master®

Authors: Mohd Radzi Hilmi, Khairidzan Mohd Kamal, Che Azemin Mohd Zulfaezal, Ariffin Azrin Esmady

Abstract:

Purpose: Corneal curvature (CC) is an important anterior segment parameter. This study compared CC measurements conducted with two optical devices in phakic eyes. Methods: Sixty phakic eyes of 30 patients were enrolled in this study. CC was measured three times with the optical biometer and topography-keratometer Tomey AO-2000 (Tomey Corporation, Nagoya, Japan), then with the standard partial optical coherence interferometry (PCI) IOL Master (Carl Zeiss Meditec, Dublin, CA) and data were statistically analysed. Results: The measurements resulted in a mean CC of 43.86 ± 1.57 D with Tomey AO-2000 and 43.84 ± 1.55 D with IOL Master. Distribution of data is normal, and no significance difference in CC values was detected (P = 0.952) between the two devices. Correlation between CC measurements was highly significant (r = 0. 99; P < 0.0001). The mean difference of CC values between devices was 0.017 D and 95% limit of agreement was -0.088 to 0.12. Duration taken for measurements with the standard biometer IOL Master was longer (55.17 ± 2.24 seconds) than with Tomey AO-2000 (39.88 ± 2.38 seconds) in automatic mode. Duration of manual measurement with Tomey AO-2000 in manual mode was the shortest (28.57 ± 2.71 seconds). Conclusion: In phakic eyes, CC measured with Tomey AO-2000 and IOL Master showed similar values, and high correlation was observed between these two devices. This shows that both devices can be used interchangeably. Tomey AO-2000 is better in terms of faster to operate and has its own topography systems.

Keywords: corneal topography, corneal curvature, IOL Master, Tomey AO2000

Procedia PDF Downloads 379
1677 Large-Capacity Image Information Reduction Based on Single-Cue Saliency Map for Retinal Prosthesis System

Authors: Yili Chen, Xiaokun Liang, Zhicheng Zhang, Yaoqin Xie

Abstract:

In an effort to restore visual perception in retinal diseases, an electronic retinal prosthesis with thousands of electrodes has been developed. The image processing strategies of retinal prosthesis system converts the original images from the camera to the stimulus pattern which can be interpreted by the brain. Practically, the original images are with more high resolution (256x256) than that of the stimulus pattern (such as 25x25), which causes a technical image processing challenge to do large-capacity image information reduction. In this paper, we focus on developing an efficient image processing stimulus pattern extraction algorithm by using a single cue saliency map for extracting salient objects in the image with an optimal trimming threshold. Experimental results showed that the proposed stimulus pattern extraction algorithm performs quite well for different scenes in terms of the stimulus pattern. In the algorithm performance experiment, our proposed SCSPE algorithm have almost five times of the score compared with Boyle’s algorithm. Through experiment s we suggested that when there are salient objects in the scene (such as the blind meet people or talking with people), the trimming threshold should be set around 0.4max, in other situations, the trimming threshold values can be set between 0.2max-0.4max to give the satisfied stimulus pattern.

Keywords: retinal prosthesis, image processing, region of interest, saliency map, trimming threshold selection

Procedia PDF Downloads 240
1676 A Convergent Interacting Particle Method for Computing Kpp Front Speeds in Random Flows

Authors: Tan Zhang, Zhongjian Wang, Jack Xin, Zhiwen Zhang

Abstract:

We aim to efficiently compute the spreading speeds of reaction-diffusion-advection (RDA) fronts in divergence-free random flows under the Kolmogorov-Petrovsky-Piskunov (KPP) nonlinearity. We study a stochastic interacting particle method (IPM) for the reduced principal eigenvalue (Lyapunov exponent) problem of an associated linear advection-diffusion operator with spatially random coefficients. The Fourier representation of the random advection field and the Feynman-Kac (FK) formula of the principal eigenvalue (Lyapunov exponent) form the foundation of our method implemented as a genetic evolution algorithm. The particles undergo advection-diffusion and mutation/selection through a fitness function originated in the FK semigroup. We analyze the convergence of the algorithm based on operator splitting and present numerical results on representative flows such as 2D cellular flow and 3D Arnold-Beltrami-Childress (ABC) flow under random perturbations. The 2D examples serve as a consistency check with semi-Lagrangian computation. The 3D results demonstrate that IPM, being mesh-free and self-adaptive, is simple to implement and efficient for computing front spreading speeds in the advection-dominated regime for high-dimensional random flows on unbounded domains where no truncation is needed.

Keywords: KPP front speeds, random flows, Feynman-Kac semigroups, interacting particle method, convergence analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 41
1675 Optimisation of Pin Fin Heat Sink Using Taguchi Method

Authors: N. K. Chougule, G. V. Parishwad

Abstract:

The pin fin heat sink is a novel heat transfer device to transfer large amount of heat through with very small temperature differences and it also possesses large uniform cooling characteristics. Pin fins are widely used as elements that provide increased cooling for electronic devices. Increasing demands regarding the performance of such devices can be observed due to the increasing heat production density of electronic components. For this reason, extensive work is being carried out to select and optimize pin fin elements for increased heat transfer. In this paper, the effects of design parameters and the optimum design parameters for a Pin-Fin heat sink (PFHS) under multi-jet impingement case with thermal performance characteristics have been investigated by using Taguchi methodology based on the L9 orthogonal arrays. Various design parameters, such as pin-fin array size, gap between nozzle exit to impingement target surface (Z/d) and air velocity are explored by numerical experiment. The average convective heat transfer coefficient is considered as the thermal performance characteristics. The analysis of variance (ANOVA) is applied to find the effect of each design parameter on the thermal performance characteristics. Then the results of confirmation test with the optimal level constitution of design parameters have obviously shown that this logic approach can effective in optimizing the PFHS with the thermal performance characteristics. The analysis of the Taguchi method reveals that, all the parameters mentioned above have equal contributions in the performance of heat sink efficiency. Experimental results are provided to validate the suitability of the proposed approach.

Keywords: Pin Fin Heat Sink (PFHS), Taguchi method, CFD, thermal performance

Procedia PDF Downloads 245
1674 Marginalized Two-Part Joint Models for Generalized Gamma Family of Distributions

Authors: Mohadeseh Shojaei Shahrokhabadi, Ding-Geng (Din) Chen

Abstract:

Positive continuous outcomes with a substantial number of zero values and incomplete longitudinal follow-up are quite common in medical cost data. To jointly model semi-continuous longitudinal cost data and survival data and to provide marginalized covariate effect estimates, a marginalized two-part joint model (MTJM) has been developed for outcome variables with lognormal distributions. In this paper, we propose MTJM models for outcome variables from a generalized gamma (GG) family of distributions. The GG distribution constitutes a general family that includes approximately all of the most frequently used distributions like the Gamma, Exponential, Weibull, and Log Normal. In the proposed MTJM-GG model, the conditional mean from a conventional two-part model with a three-parameter GG distribution is parameterized to provide the marginal interpretation for regression coefficients. In addition, MTJM-gamma and MTJM-Weibull are developed as special cases of MTJM-GG. To illustrate the applicability of the MTJM-GG, we applied the model to a set of real electronic health record data recently collected in Iran, and we provided SAS code for application. The simulation results showed that when the outcome distribution is unknown or misspecified, which is usually the case in real data sets, the MTJM-GG consistently outperforms other models. The GG family of distribution facilitates estimating a model with improved fit over the MTJM-gamma, standard Weibull, or Log-Normal distributions.

Keywords: marginalized two-part model, zero-inflated, right-skewed, semi-continuous, generalized gamma

Procedia PDF Downloads 168