Search results for: calculation of risk factor

Authors: A. Kourou, A. Ioakeimidou, S. Hadjiefthymiades, V. Abramea

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During the last decades, the task of engaging governments, communities and citizens to reduce risk and vulnerability of the populations has made variable progress. Experience has demonstrated that lack of awareness, education and preparedness may result in significant material and other losses both on the onset of the disaster. Schools play a vital role in the community and are important elements of values and culture of the society. A proper school education not only teaches children, but also is a key factor in the promotion of a safety culture into the wider community. In Greece School Earthquake Safety Initiative has been undertaken by Earthquake Planning and Protection Ogranization with specific actions (seminars, lectures, guidelines, educational material, campaigns, national or EU projects, drills etc.). The objective of this initiative is to develop disaster-resilient school communities through awareness, self-help, cooperation and education. School preparedness requires the participation of Principals, teachers, students, parents, and competent authorities. Preparation and earthquake readiness involves: a) learning what should be done before, during, and after earthquake; b) doing or preparing to do these things now, before the next earthquake; and c) developing teachers’ and students’ skills to cope efficiently in case of an earthquake. In the above given framework this paper presents the results of a survey aimed to identify the level of education and preparedness of school community in Greece. More specifically, the survey questionnaire investigates issues regarding earthquake protection actions, appropriate attitudes and behaviors during an earthquake and existence of contingency plans at elementary and secondary schools. The questionnaires were administered to Principals and teachers from different regions of the country that attend the EPPO national training project 'Earthquake Safety at Schools'. A closed-form questionnaire was developed for the survey, which contained questions regarding the following: a) knowledge of self protective actions b) existence of emergency planning at home and c) existence of emergency planning at school (hazard mitigation actions, evacuation plan, and performance of drills). Survey results revealed that a high percentage of teachers have taken the appropriate preparedness measures concerning non-structural hazards at schools, emergency school plan and simulation drills every year. In order to improve the action-planning for ongoing school disaster risk reduction, the implementation of earthquake drills, the involvement of students with disabilities and the evaluation of school emergency plans, EPPO participates in E-PreS project. The main objective of this project is to create smart tools which define, simulate and evaluate all hazards emergency steps customized to the unique district and school. The project comes up with a holistic methodology using real-time evaluation involving different categories of actors, districts, steps and metrics. The project is supported by EU Civil Protection Financial Instrument with a duration of two years. Coordinator is the Kapodistrian University of Athens and partners are from four countries; Greece, Italy, Romania and Bulgaria.

Keywords: drills, earthquake, emergency plans, E-PreS project

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Authors: Maria C. Proença, Maria T. Rebelo, Marília Antunes, Maria J. Alves, Hugo Osório, Sofia Cunha, REVIVE team

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The environment of the mosquitoes complex Culex pipiens sl. in Portugal mainland is evaluated based in its abundance, using a data set georeferenced, collected during seven years (2006-2012) from May to October. The suitability of the different regions can be delineated using the relative abundance areas; the suitablility index is directly proportional to disease transmission risk and allows focusing mitigation measures in order to avoid outbreaks of vector-borne diseases. The interest in the Culex pipiens complex is justified by its medical importance: the females bite all warm-blooded vertebrates and are involved in the circulation of several arbovirus of concern to human health, like West Nile virus, iridoviruses, rheoviruses and parvoviruses. The abundance of Culex pipiens mosquitoes were documented systematically all over the territory by the local health services, in a long duration program running since 2006. The environmental factors used to characterize the vector habitat are land use/land cover, distance to cartographed water bodies, altitude and latitude. Focus will be on the mosquito females, which gonotrophic cycle mate-bloodmeal-oviposition is responsible for the virus transmission; its abundance is the key for the planning of non-aggressive prophylactic countermeasures that may eradicate the transmission risk and simultaneously avoid chemical ambient degradation. Meteorological parameters such as: air relative humidity, air temperature (minima, maxima and mean daily temperatures) and daily total rainfall were gathered from the weather stations network for the same dates and crossed with the standardized females’ abundance in a geographic information system (GIS). Mean capture and percentage of above average captures related to each variable are used as criteria to compute a threshold for each meteorological parameter; the difference of the mean capture above/below the threshold was statistically assessed. The meteorological parameters measured at the net of weather stations all over the country are averaged by month and interpolated to produce raster maps that can be segmented according to the meaningful thresholds for each parameter. The intersection of the maps of all the parameters obtained for each month show the evolution of the suitable meteorological conditions through the mosquito season, considered as May to October, although the first and last month are less relevant. In parallel, mean and above average captures were related to the physiographic parameters – the land use/land cover classes most relevant in each month, the altitudes preferred and the most frequent distance to water bodies, a factor closely related with the mosquito biology. The maps produced with these results were crossed with the meteorological maps previously segmented, in order to get an index of suitability for the complex Culex pipiens evaluated all over the country, and its evolution from the beginning to the end of the mosquitoes season.

Keywords: suitability index, Culex pipiens, habitat evolution, GIS model

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Authors: Jeanne Grace, Melkamu D. Kassa

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Background: Despite the recognized benefits of physical exercise, including a reduction of health risk factor indicators, illness and deaths related to Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs) like cardiovascular disease, diabetes, hypertension, and cancer, the extent of its recognition and use as a prevention strategy by healthcare professionals working in Ethiopian referral hospitals is unknown. Objective: This study explored healthcare professionals’ use of physical exercise as a non-communicable disease prevention strategy in the Ethiopian public sector healthcare system. Methods: In this cross-sectional study, a self-administered questionnaire was conducted after being piloted to ensure validity and reliability. For the study, 312 participants were selected from 13 purposively selected Ethiopian referral hospitals, these being 99 physicians who were purposively selected and 213 nurses who were proportionately and randomly selected. Results: The results indicated that three-quarters (78%) of healthcare professionals working in Ethiopian hospitals are not using physical exercise as a strategy to prevent NCDs. Increased specialization (AOR = 20.203, p < 0.001), longer service years (AOR = 0.041, p = 0.014), young age (AOR = 19.871, p < 0.001), and being male (AOR = 0.269, p < 0.001), were predictors of using physical exercise as a strategy for the prevention of NCDs. Conclusion: Healthcare professionals’ utilization of physical exercise as a strategy for NCDs prevention was inadequate in Ethiopia. Given the increasing burden of NCD disease in Ethiopia, training nurses, physicians and medical managers have to acknowledge the use of physical exercise as an NCD prevention strategy. The results of this study highlight the importance of formulating physical exercise intervention strategies for NCDs patients, and the need to incorporate training for healthcare professionals on the type, intensity, duration, and frequency of physical exercise to prevent NCDs in the Ethiopian healthcare system.

Keywords: exercise, medical managers, nurses, physicians

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Authors: Mohd Najib Mansor, Nur Syamilah Md. Noor, Abdul Rahim Anuar, Shazida Jan Mohd Khan, Ahmad Zubir Ibrahim, Badariah Hj Din, Abu Sufian Abu Bakar, Kalsom Kayat, Wan Nurmahfuzah Jannah Wan Mansor

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This study aimed and focused on the behavior of youth entrepreneurs’ especially entrepreneurial self-efficacy and the performance in micro SMEs in Malaysia. Entrepreneurship development calls for support from various quarters, and mostly the need exists to initiate a youth entrepreneurship culture and drive amongst the youth in the society. Although backed up by the government and non-government organizations, micro-entrepreneurs are still facing challenges which greatly delay their progress, growth and consequently their input towards economic advancement. Micro-entrepreneurs are confronted with unique difficulties such as uncertainty, innovation, and evolution. Reviews on the development of entrepreneurial characteristics such as need for achievement, internal locus of control, risk-taking and innovation and have been recognized as highly associated with entrepreneurial behavior. The data in this study was obtained from the Department of Statistics, Malaysia. A random sampling of 830 respondents was distributed to 14 states that involve of micro-entrepreneurs. The study adopted a quantitative approach whereby a set of questionnaire was used to gather data. Multiple regression analysis was chosen as a method of analysis testing. The result of this study is expected to provide insight into the factor affecting entrepreneurial behavior and performance of youth entrepreneurs in micro SMEs. The finding showed that the Malaysian youth entrepreneurs do not have the entrepreneurial self-efficacy within themselves in order to accomplish greater success in their business venture. The establishment of entrepreneurial schools to allow our youth to be exposed to entrepreneurship from an early age and the development of special training focuses on the creation of business network so that the continuous entrepreneurial culture is crafted.

Keywords: youth entrepreneurs, micro entrepreneurs, entrepreneurial self-efficacy, entrepreneurial performance

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Authors: Fatou Cisse

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Depression is one of the most serious health problems experienced by immigrants and refugees, who are likely to undergo heightened political, economic, social, and environmental stressors as they transition to a new culture. The purpose of this literature review is to identify and compare risks associated with depression among young adult immigrants and refugees aged 18 to 25. Ten articles focused on risks associated with depression symptoms among this population were reviewed, revealing several common themes: Stress, identity, culture, language barriers, discrimination, social support, self-esteem, length of time in the receiving country, origins, or background. Existing research has failed to account adequately for sample size, language barriers, how the concept of "depression" differs across cultures, and stressors immigrants and refugees experience prior to the transition to the new culture. The study revealed that immigrants and refugees are at risk for depression and that the risk is greater in the refugee population due to their history of trauma. The Roy Adaptation Model was employed to understand the coping mechanisms that refugees and immigrants could use to reduce rates of depression. The psychiatric nurse practitioner must be prepared to intervene and educate this population on these coping mechanisms to help them overcome the feelings that lead to depression and facilitate a smooth integration into the new culture.

Keywords: immigration, refugees, depression, young adults

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Authors: Dina Alfreahat, Zoltan Sebestyen

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Safety is considered as one of the project’s success factors. Poor safety management may result in accidents that impact human, economic, and legal issues. Therefore, it is necessary to consider safety and health as a project success factor along with other project success factors, such as time, cost, and quality. Organizations have a knowledge deficit of the implementation of long-term safety practices, and due to cost control, safety problems tend to receive the least priority. They usually assume that safety management involves expenditures unrelated to production goals, thereby considering it unnecessary for profitability and competitiveness. The purpose of this study is to introduce, analysis and identify the correlation between the orientation of the public safety procedures of an organization and the public safety standards applied in the project. Therefore, the authors develop the process and collect the possible mathematical-statistical tools supporting the previously mentioned goal. The result shows that the adoption of management to safety is a major factor in implementing the safety standard in the project and thereby improving safety performance. It may take time and effort to adopt the mindset of safety orientation service development, but at the same time, the higher organizational investment in safety and health programs will contribute to the loyalty of staff to safety compliance.

Keywords: project management perspective, safety orientation, safety performance, safety standards

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Authors: Gülçin Akbas Uslu

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Honor cultures put importance on the sexual purity of women. Women are expected to avoid acts that may spoil their honor. The emphasis on honor leads to the subordination of women and the dominance of men. In order to protect and clean honor, women are exposed to physical and psychological violence. Therefore, understanding the motivations driving people to endorse honor bears importance. For this purpose, this study aims to explore honor endorsement from the joint perspective of System Justification Theory (SJT) and Regulatory Focus Theory (RFT). SJT asserts that people have a tendency to support and rationalize the system. The motivation to maintain the system may be a factor in the endorsement of honor. RFT proposes two distinct regulatory processes, namely promotion and prevention focus. Having a dominant prevention focus, such as a deep concern for responsibilities, risk avoidance, and minimizing negative outcomes, may have a role in honor. Data were collected conveniently from 366 participants (216 women; 150 men). Participants filled out Honor Endorsement Index, Honor Based System Justification Scale and Regulatory Focus Orientation Scale Results revealed that both regulatory focus and system justification play a role in understanding honor. One-way ANOVA findings showed that individuals with a dominant prevention focus endorse honor beliefs more than individuals with a dominant promotion focus. Besides, regression analysis revealed that prevention focus and system justification significantly and positively predict honor. Results provide clarifications for why honor has an important meaning in individuals’ life and why honor-based violence is approved. These findings bear great importance in Turkey, where emphasis on honor is high and can be used in reducing people’s adherence to honor, which is based on women’s sexuality and men’s power over women.

Keywords: honor, system justification theory, regulatory focus theory, prevention focus

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Authors: Kgantsi B. T., Ochwelwang A. R., Mathuthu M., Jegede O. A.

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Anthropogenic activities near water bodies contribute to poor water quality, which degrades the condition of the biota and elevates the risk to human health. The Vaal River is essential in supplying Gauteng and neighboring regions of South Africa with portable water for a variety of consumers and industries. Consequently, it is necessary to monitor and assess the radioactive risk in relation to the river's water quality. This study used an inductive coupled plasma mass spectrometer (ICPMS) to analyze the radionuclide activity concentration in the Vaal River, South Africa. Along with thorium and potassium, the total uranium concentration was calculated using the isotopic content of uranium. The elemental concentration of ²³⁸U, ²³⁵U, ²³⁴U, ²³²Th, and 40K were translated into activity concentrations. To assess the water safety for all users and consumers, all values were compared to world average activity concentrations 35, 30, and 400 Bqkg⁻¹ for ²³⁸U, ²³⁴Th, and ⁴⁰K, respectively, according to the UNSCEAR report. The results will serve as a database for further monitoring and evaluation of the radionuclide from the river, taking cognisance of potential health hazards.

Keywords: Val Rivers, ICPMS, uranium, risks

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Authors: Yiea Funk Te, Daniel Mueller, Irena Pletikosa Cvijikj

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Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) play an important role in the economy of many countries. When the overall world economy is considered, SMEs represent 95% of all businesses in the world, accounting for 66% of the total employment. Existing studies show that the current business environment is characterized as highly turbulent and strongly influenced by modern information and communication technologies, thus forcing SMEs to experience more severe challenges in maintaining their existence and expanding their business. To support SMEs at improving their competitiveness, researchers recently turned their focus on applying data mining techniques to build risk and growth prediction models. However, data used to assess risk and growth indicators is primarily obtained via questionnaires, which is very laborious and time-consuming, or is provided by financial institutes, thus highly sensitive to privacy issues. Recently, web mining (WM) has emerged as a new approach towards obtaining valuable insights in the business world. WM enables automatic and large scale collection and analysis of potentially valuable data from various online platforms, including companies’ websites. While WM methods have been frequently studied to anticipate growth of sales volume for e-commerce platforms, their application for assessment of SME risk and growth indicators is still scarce. Considering that a vast proportion of SMEs own a website, WM bears a great potential in revealing valuable information hidden in SME websites, which can further be used to understand SME risk and growth indicators, as well as to enhance current SME risk and growth prediction models. This study aims at developing an automated system to collect business-relevant data from the Web and predict future growth trends of SMEs by means of WM and data mining techniques. The envisioned system should serve as an 'early recognition system' for future growth opportunities. In an initial step, we examine how structured and semi-structured Web data in governmental or SME websites can be used to explain the success of SMEs. WM methods are applied to extract Web data in a form of additional input features for the growth prediction model. The data on SMEs provided by a large Swiss insurance company is used as ground truth data (i.e. growth-labeled data) to train the growth prediction model. Different machine learning classification algorithms such as the Support Vector Machine, Random Forest and Artificial Neural Network are applied and compared, with the goal to optimize the prediction performance. The results are compared to those from previous studies, in order to assess the contribution of growth indicators retrieved from the Web for increasing the predictive power of the model.

Keywords: data mining, SME growth, success factors, web mining

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Authors: Charles Esambe Alobwede

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From the time of the biblical story of the Tower of Babel, languages as well as people have learnt to co-exist. It is obvious that when languages co-exist, there is the inevitable tendency of linguistic influence. This is because a language can either be a unifying factor or a factor of division within a given community, especially in a multicultural and multi-linguistic community where such a situation has led to socio-political and economic tension. Thus, leaders of such communities have a duty to plan and implement a language policy that will meet the needs of all members of the community in order to enhance its corporateness. The present article will focus on some of the major reasons that prompted the government of Cameroon to embark on an official bilingual policy after independence in 1961 and then evaluate the evolution of the linguistic situation. The article will equally look at the consequences, especially on a socio-political platform and what today has been termed 'the Anglophone problem' in Cameroon which has caused a fuse between the country’s minority Anglophone population and the majority Francophone administration. Data for the present article is collected from literature on the state of official bilingualism in Cameroon, newspapers articles on the prevailing situation in the country and interviews with actors on the field.

Keywords: language policy, linguistic influence, multicultural, official bilingualism, socio-political tension

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Authors: Duygu Dere, Mert Ergeneci, Kaan Gokcesu

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Google Trends data has gained increasing popularity in the applications of behavioral finance, decision science and risk management. Because of Google’s wide range of use, the Trends statistics provide significant information about the investor sentiment and intention, which can be used as decisive factors for corporate and risk management fields. However, an anomaly, a significant increase or decrease, in a certain query cannot be detected by the state of the art applications of computation due to the random baseline noise of the Trends data, which is modelled as an Additive white Gaussian noise (AWGN). Since through time, the baseline noise power shows a gradual change an adaptive thresholding method is required to track and learn the baseline noise for a correct classification. To this end, we introduce an online method to classify meaningful deviations in Google Trends data. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that our method can successfully classify various anomalies for plenty of different data.

Keywords: adaptive data processing, behavioral finance , convex optimization, online learning, soft minimum thresholding

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Authors: Lukman Ahmad Jamil, Heather M. Wallace

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Introduction: Numerous epidemiological studies have shown a positive as well as negative association and no association in some cases between chronic use of calcium channel blockers and the increased risk of developing cancer. However, these associations were enmeshed with controversies in the absence of laboratory based studies to back up those claims. Aim: The aim of this study was to determine in mechanistic terms the association between the long-term administration of nifedipine and diltiazem and increased risk of developing cancer using the human embryonic kidney (HEK293) cell line. Methods: Cell counting using the Trypan blue dye exclusion and 3-4, 5-Dimethylthiazol-2-yl-2, 5-diphenyl-tetrazolium bromide (MTT) assays were used to investigate the effect of nifedipine and diltiazem on the growth pattern of HEK293 cells. Protein assay using modified Lowry method and analysis of intracellular polyamines concentration using Liquid Chromatography – Tandem Mass Spectrometry (LC-MS) were performed to ascertain the mechanism through which chronic use of nifedipine increases the risk of developing cancer. Results: Both nifedipine and diltiazem significantly increased the proliferation of HEK293 cells dose and time dependently. This proliferative effect after 24, 48 and 72-hour incubation period was observed at 0.78, 1.56 and 25 µM for nifedipine and 0.39, 1.56 and 25 µM for diltiazem, respectively. The increased proliferation of the cells was found to be statistically significantly (p<0.05). Furthermore, the increased proliferation of the cells induced by nifedipine was associated with the increase in the protein content and elevated intracellular polyamines concentration level. Conclusion: The chronic use of nifedipine is associated with increased proliferation of cells with concomitant elevation of polyamines concentration and elevated polyamine levels have been implicated in many malignant transformations and hence, these provide a possible explanation on the link between long term use of nifedipine and development of some human cancers. Further studies are needed to evaluate the cause of this association.

Keywords: cancer, nifedipine, polyamine, proliferation

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Authors: Ke Zhang, Yongli Zhu

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Due to rapid load growths in today’s highly electrified societies and the requirement for green energy sources, large-scale wind farm power transmission system is constantly developing. This system is a typical multi-terminal power supply system, whose structure of the network topology of transmission lines is complex. What’s more, it locates in the complex terrain of mountains and grasslands, thus increasing the possibility of transmission line faults and finding the fault location with difficulty after the faults and resulting in an extremely serious phenomenon of abandoning the wind. In order to solve these problems, a fault location method for multi-terminal transmission line based on wind farm characteristics and improved single-ended traveling wave positioning method is proposed. Through studying the zero sequence current characteristics by using the characteristics of the grounding transformer(GT) in the existing large-scale wind farms, it is obtained that the criterion for judging the fault interval of the multi-terminal transmission line. When a ground short-circuit fault occurs, there is only zero sequence current on the path between GT and the fault point. Therefore, the interval where the fault point exists is obtained by determining the path of the zero sequence current. After determining the fault interval, The location of the short-circuit fault point is calculated by the traveling wave method. However, this article uses an improved traveling wave method. It makes the positioning accuracy more accurate by combining the single-ended traveling wave method with double-ended electrical data. What’s more, a method of calculating the traveling wave velocity is deduced according to the above improvements (it is the actual wave velocity in theory). The improvement of the traveling wave velocity calculation method further improves the positioning accuracy. Compared with the traditional positioning method, the average positioning error of this method is reduced by 30%.This method overcomes the shortcomings of the traditional method in poor fault location of wind farm transmission lines. In addition, it is more accurate than the traditional fixed wave velocity method in the calculation of the traveling wave velocity. It can calculate the wave velocity in real time according to the scene and solve the traveling wave velocity can’t be updated with the environment and real-time update. The method is verified in PSCAD/EMTDC.

Keywords: grounding transformer, multi-terminal transmission line, short circuit fault location, traveling wave velocity, wind farm

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Authors: S. Hasan, I. Beshara

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Infrastructure maintenance is a great challenge facing sustainable development of infrastructure assets due to the high cost of passive implementation of a sustainable maintenance plan. An assessment model of sustainable maintenance for highway infrastructure projects in Egypt is developed in this paper. It helps in improving the implementation of sustainable maintenance criteria. Thus, this paper has applied the analytical hierarchy processes (AHP) to rank and explore the weight of 26 assessment indicators using three hierarchy levels containing the main sustainable categories and subcategories with related indicators. Overall combined weight of each indicator for sustainable maintenance evaluation has been calculated to sum up to a sustainable maintenance performance index (SMI). The results show that the factor "Preventive maintenance cost" has the highest relative contribution factor among others (13.5%), while two factors of environmental performance have the least weights (0.7%). The developed model aims to provide decision makers with information about current maintenance performance and support them in the decision-making process regarding future directions of maintenance activities. It can be used as an assessment performance tool during the operation and maintenance stage. The developed indicators can be considered during designing the maintenance plan. Practices for successful implementation of the model are also presented.

Keywords: analytical hierarchy process, assessment performance Model, KPIs for sustainable maintenance, sustainable maintenance index

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Authors: M. J. Reis Lima, J. Oliveira, M. Brito, C. Lemos, A. Mascarenhas, E. Teixeira Lemos

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Hypertension is a common condition causing cardio and cerebrovascular complications. Portugal has one of the highest mortality rates from stroke and a high prevalence of hypertension. Systolic blood pressure (SBP) is an important risk factor for cardiovascular events (myocardial infarction and stroke) and premature mortality, particularly in the elderly population. The present study aims to estimate the prevalence of hypertension in a Portuguese population living in a coastal city and to identify some of its determinants (namely gender, age, the body mass index and physical activity frequency). A total of 91 adults who attended three pharmacies of a coastal city in the center of Portugal, between May and August of 2013 were evaluated. Attendants who reported to have diabetes or taking antihypertensive drugs in the 2 previous weeks were excluded from the study. Sociodemographic factors, BMI, habits of exercise and BP were assessed. Hypertension was defined as blood pressure ≥140/90 mmHg. The majority of the studied population was constituted by women (75.8%), with a mean age of 54.2±1.6 years old, married or living in civil union and that had completed secondary school or had higher education (40%). They presented a mean BMI of 26.2±4.76 Kg/m2. and were sedentary. The mean BP was 127.0±17.77mmHg- 74.69 ± 9.53. In this population, we found 4.3% of people with hypertension and 16.1% with normal high blood pressure. Men exhibit a tendency to present higher systolic blood pressure values than women. Of all the factors considered, SBP values also tended to be higher with age and higher BMI values. Despite the fact that the mean values of SBP did not present values higher than 140 mmHg we must be concerned because the studied population is undiagnosed for hypertension. Our study even with some limitations might be a prelude to the upcoming research about the underlying factors responsible for the occurrence of SBP.

Keywords: hypertension, age, exercise, obesity and gender

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Authors: Renu Sharma, D. C. Saxena, Tanuja Srivastava

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Mechanical properties of ready-to-eat extrudates are perceived by the consumers as one of the quality criteria. Texture quality of any product has a strong influence on the sensory evaluation as well as on the acceptability of the product. The main texture characteristics influencing the product acceptability are crispness, elasticity, hardness and softness. In the present work, the authors investigated one of the most important textural characteristics of extrudates i.e. hardness. A five-level, four-factor central composite rotatable design was employed to investigate the effect of temperature, screw speed, feed moisture content and feed composition mainly rice bran content and their interactions, on the mechanical hardness of extrudates. Among these, feed moisture was found to be a prominent factor affecting the product hardness. It was found that with the increase of feed moisture content, the rice bran proportion leads to increase in hardness of extrudates whereas the increase of temperature leads to decrease of hardness of product. A good agreement between the predicted (26.49 N) and actual value (28.73N) of the response confirms the validation of response surface methodology (RSM)-model.

Keywords: deoiled rice bran, extrusion, rheological properties, RSM

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Authors: Ankit Kumar, Balram Dubey

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This study proposes a three dimensional prey-predator model with additional food, provided to predator individuals, including gestation delay in predators and delay in supplying the additional food to predators. It is assumed that the interaction between prey and predator is followed by Holling type-II functional response. We discussed the steady states and their local and global asymptotic behavior for the non-delayed system. Hopf-bifurcation phenomenon with respect to different parameters has also been studied. We obtained a range of predator’s tendency factor on provided additional food, in which the periodic solutions occur in the system. We have shown that oscillations can be controlled from the system by increasing the tendency factor. Moreover, the existence of periodic solutions via Hopf-bifurcation is shown with respect to both the delays. Our analysis shows that both delays play an important role in governing the dynamics of the system. It changes the stability behavior into instability behavior. The direction and stability of Hopf-bifurcation are also investigated through the normal form theory and the center manifold theorem. Lastly, some numerical simulations and graphical illustrations have been carried out to validate our analytical findings.

Keywords: additional food, gestation delay, Hopf-bifurcation, prey-predator

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Authors: Kamal Hammad, Alexey Fedorenko, Ivan Sergeichev

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This study uses analytical modeling, experimental testing, and explicit numerical simulations to evaluate failure and spall damage in Carbon Fiber-Reinforced Polymer (CFRP) composite confinement vessels. It investigates the response of composite materials to explosive loading dynamic impact, revealing varied failure modes. Hashin damage was used to model inplane failure, while the Virtual Crack Closure Technique (VCCT) modeled inter-laminar damage. Results show moderate agreement between simulations and experiments regarding free surface velocity and failure stresses, with discrepancies due to wire alignment imperfections and wave reverberations in the experimental test. The findings can improve design and risk-reduction strategies in high-risk scenarios, leading to enhanced safety and economic efficiency in material assessment and structural design processes.

Keywords: explicit, numerical, spall, damage, CFRP, composite, vessels, explosive, dynamic, impact, Hashin, VCCT

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Authors: Ghada Abo-Zaid

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The main objective of this study was to examine the association between the elevated level of CRP and incidence of hypertension before and after adjusting by age, BMI, gender, SES, smoking, diabetes, cholesterol LDL and cholesterol HDL and to determine whether the association were differ by race. Method: Cross sectional data for participations from age 17 to age 74 years who included in The National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) from 1999 to 2010 were analysed. CRP level was classified into three categories ( > 3mg/L, between 1mg/LL and 3mg/L, and < 3 mg/L). Blood pressure categorization was done using JNC 7 algorithm Hypertension defined as either systolic blood pressure (SBP) of 140 mmHg or more and disystolic blood pressure (DBP) of 90mmHg or greater, otherwise a self-reported prior diagnosis by a physician. Pre-hypertension was defined as (139 > SBP > 120 or 89 > DPB > 80). Multinominal regression model was undertaken to measure the association between CRP level and hypertension. Results: In univariable models, CRP concentrations > 3 mg/L were associated with a 73% greater risk of incident hypertension compared with CRP concentrations < 1 mg/L (Hypertension: odds ratio [OR] = 1.73; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.50-1.99). Ethnic comparisons showed that American Mexican had the highest risk of incident hypertension (odds ratio [OR] = 2.39; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.21-2.58).This risk was statistically insignificant, however, either after controlling by other variables (Hypertension: OR = 0.75; 95% CI, 0.52-1.08,), or categorized by race [American Mexican: odds ratio [OR] = 1.58; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0,58-4.26, Other Hispanic: odds ratio [OR] = 0.87; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.19-4.42, Non-Hispanic white: odds ratio [OR] = 0.90; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.50-1.59, Non-Hispanic Black: odds ratio [OR] = 0.44; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.22-0,87]. The same results were found for pre-hypertension, and the Non-Hispanic black showed the highest significant risk for Pre-Hypertension (odds ratio [OR] = 1.60; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.26-2.03). When CRP concentrations were between 1.0-3.0 mg/L, in an unadjusted models prehypertension was associated with higher likelihood of elevated CRP (OR = 1.37; 95% CI, 1.15-1.62). The same relationship was maintained in Non-Hispanic white, Non-Hispanic black, and other race (Non-Hispanic white: OR = 1.24; 95% CI, 1.03-1.48, Non-Hispanic black: OR = 1.60; 95% CI, 1.27-2.03, other race: OR = 2.50; 95% CI, 1.32-4.74) while the association was insignificant with American Mexican and other Hispanic. In the adjusted model, the relationship between CRP and prehypertension were no longer available. In contrary, Hypertension was not independently associated with elevated CRP, and the results were the same after grouped by race or adjusted by the confounder variables. The same results were obtained when SBP or DBP were on a continuous measure. Conclusions: This study confirmed the existence of an association between hypertension, prehypertension and elevated level of CRP, however this association was no longer available after adjusting by other variables. Ethic group differences were statistically significant at the univariable models, while it disappeared after controlling by other variables.

Keywords: CRP, hypertension, ethnicity, NHANES, blood pressure

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Authors: Dorcas Matowe

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Inequality in health care for racial and ethnic minorities continues to be a growing concern for many Americans. Some of the barriers hindering the elimination of health disparities include lack of insurance, socioeconomic status (SES), and racism. This study will specifically focus on the association between some of these factors- health care access, which includes insurance coverage and frequency of doctor visits, race, ethnicity, and health status. The purpose of this study will be to address the following questions: is having health insurance associated with increased doctor visits? Are racial and ethnic minorities with health insurance more or less likely to see a doctor? Is the association between having health insurance moderated by being an ethnic minority? Given the current implications of the 2010 Affordable Care Act, this study will highlight the need to prioritize health care access for minorities and confront institutional racism. Critical Race Theory (CRT) will demonstrate how racism has reinforced these health disparities. This quantitative study design will analyze secondary data from the 2015 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) questionnaire, a telephone survey conducted annually in all 50 states and three US territories by state health departments in conjunction with the Center for Disease Control (CDC). Non-identifying health-related data is gathered annually from over 400,000 adults 18 years and above about their health status and use of preventative services. Through Structural Equation Modeling (SEM), the relationship between the predictor variables of health care access, race, and ethnicity, the criterion variable of health status, and the latent variables of emotional support and life satisfaction will be examined. It is hypothesized that there will be an interaction between certain racial and ethnic minorities who went to see a doctor, had insurance coverage, experienced racism, and the quality of their health status, emotional support, and life satisfaction.

Keywords: ethnic minorities, health disparities, health access, racism

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Authors: Khaled M.Naguib, Ahmed M.Noureldin

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This paper aims to achieve many goals such as knowing (quantities produced- main properties- characteristics) of sludge produced from Bahr EL-Baqar drains treatment plant. This prediction or projection was made by laboratory analysis and modelling of Model samples from sludge depending on many studies that have previously done, second check the feasibility and do a risk analysis to know the best alternatives for reuse in producing secondary products that add value to sludge. Also, to know alternatives that have no value to add. All recovery methods are relatively very expensive and challenging to be done in this mega plant, so the recommendation from this study is to use the sludge as a coagulant to reduce some compounds or in secondary products. The study utilized sludge-cement replacement percentages of 10%, 20%, 30%, 40% and 50%. Produced tiles were tested for water absorption and breaking (bending) strength. The study showed that all produced tiles exhibited a water absorption ratio of around 10%. The study concluded that produced tiles, except for 50% sludge-cement replacement, comply with the breaking strength requirements of 2.8 MPa for tiles for external use.

Keywords: cement, tiles, water treatment sludge, breaking strength, absorption, heavy metals, risk analysis

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Authors: Yasser Aldali, Farag Ahwide

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This paper investigates the application of large scale (LS-PV) two-axis tracking photovoltaic power plant in Al-Jagbob, Libya. A 50MW PV-grid connected (two-axis tracking) power plant design in Al-Jagbob, Libya has been carried out presently. A hetero-junction with intrinsic thin layer (HIT) type PV module has been selected and modeled. A Microsoft Excel-VBA program has been constructed to compute slope radiation, dew-point, sky temperature, and then cell temperature, maximum power output and module efficiency for this system, for tracking system. The results for energy production show that the total energy output is 128.5 GWh/year. The average module efficiency is 16.6%. The electricity generation capacity factor (CF) and solar capacity factor (SCF) were found to be 29.3% and 70.4% respectively. A 50MW two axis tracking power plant with a total energy output of 128.5 GWh/year would reduce CO2 pollution by 85,581 tonnes of each year. The payback time for the proposed LS-PV photovoltaic power plant was found to be 4 years.

Keywords: large PV power plant, solar energy, environmental impact, dual-axis tracking system

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Authors: Mouhamed Mbouandi Njikam

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This work assesses the trade potential of countries in the Economic Community of Central Africa States (ECCAS). The gravity model of trade is used to evaluate the trade flows of member countries, and to compute the trade potential index of ECCAS during 1995-2010. The focus is on the removal of tariffs and non-tariff barriers in the sub-region. Estimates from the gravity model are used for the calculation of the sub-region’s commercial potential. Its three main findings are: (i) the background research shows a low level of integration in the sub-region and open economies; (ii) a low level of industrialization and diversification are the main factors reducing trade potential in the sub-region; (iii) the trade creation predominate on the deflections of trade between member countries.

Keywords: gravity model, ECCAS, trade flows, trade potential, regional cooperation

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Authors: N. C. van der Merwe, J. Oosthuizen, M. F. Makhetha, J. Adams, B. K. Dajee, S-R. Schneider

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Women representing high-risk breast cancer families, who tested negative for pathogenic mutations in BRCA1 and BRCA2, are four times more likely to develop breast cancer compared to women in the general population. Sequencing of genes involved in genomic stability and DNA repair led to the identification of novel contributors to familial breast cancer risk. These include BLM and PALB2. Bloom's syndrome is a rare homozygous autosomal recessive chromosomal instability disorder with a high incidence of various types of neoplasia and is associated with breast cancer when in a heterozygous state. PALB2, on the other hand, binds to BRCA2 and together, they partake actively in DNA damage repair. Archived DNA samples of 66 BRCA1/2 negative high-risk breast cancer patients were retrospectively selected based on the presence of an extensive family history of the disease ( > 3 affecteds per family). All coding regions and splice-site boundaries of both genes were screened using High-Resolution Melting Analysis. Samples exhibiting variation were bi-directionally automated Sanger sequenced. The clinical significance of each variant was assessed using various in silico and splice site prediction algorithms. Comprehensive screening identified a total of 11 BLM and 26 PALB2 variants. The variants detected ranged from global to rare and included three novel mutations. Three BLM and two PALB2 likely pathogenic mutations were identified that could account for the disease in these extensive breast cancer families in the absence of BRCA mutations (BLM c.11T > A, p.V4D; BLM c.2603C > T, p.P868L; BLM c.3961G > A, p.V1321I; PALB2 c.421C > T, p.Gln141Ter; PALB2 c.508A > T, p.Arg170Ter). Conclusion: The study confirmed the contribution of pathogenic mutations in BLM and PALB2 to the familial breast cancer burden in South Africa. It explained the presence of the disease in 7.5% of the BRCA1/2 negative families with an extensive family history of breast cancer. Segregation analysis will be performed to confirm the clinical impact of these mutations for each of these families. These results justify the inclusion of both these genes in a comprehensive breast and ovarian next generation sequencing cancer panel and should be screened simultaneously with BRCA1 and BRCA2 as it might explain a significant percentage of familial breast and ovarian cancer in South Africa.

Keywords: Bloom Syndrome, familial breast cancer, PALB2, South Africa

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Authors: Wen-Hsiang Lai

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Except for the internal aspects of entrepreneurship (i.e. motivation, opportunity perspective and alertness), there are external aspects that affecting entrepreneurship (i.e. the industrial cluster). By comparing the machinery companies located inside and outside the industrial district, this study aims to explore the cluster effects on the entrepreneurship of companies in Taiwan machinery clusters (TMC). In this study, three factors affecting the entrepreneurship in TMC are conducted as “competition”, “embedded-ness” and “specialized knowledge”. The “competition” in the industrial cluster is defined as the competitive advantages that companies gain in form of demand effects and diversified strategies; the “embedded-ness” refers to the quality of company relations (relational embedded-ness) and ranges (structural embedded-ness) with the industry components (universities, customers and complementary) that affecting knowledge transfer and knowledge generations; the “specialized knowledge” shares the internal knowledge within industrial clusters. This study finds that when comparing to the companies which are outside the cluster, the industrial cluster has positive influence on the entrepreneurship. Additionally, the factor of “relational embedded-ness” has significant impact on the entrepreneurship and affects the adaptation ability of companies in TMC. Finally, the factor of “competition” reveals partial influence on the entrepreneurship.

Keywords: entrepreneurship, industrial cluster, industrial district, economies of agglomerations, Taiwan Machinery Cluster (TMC)

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Authors: Chariton Christou, David Cornwell

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Production Sharing Contract (PSC) is the type of contract that is being used widely in our time. The financial crisis made the governments tightfisted and they do not have the resources to participate in a development of a field. Therefore, more and more countries introduce the PSC. The companies have the power and the money to develop the field with their own way. The main problem is the transparency of oil and gas companies especially in the PSC and how this can be achieved. Many discussions have been made especially in the U.K. What we are suggesting is a dynamic financial simulation with the help of a flow meter. The flow meter will count the production of each field every day (it will be installed in a pipeline). The production will be the basic input of the simulation. It will count the profit, the costs and more according to the information of the flow meter. In addition it will include the terms of the contract and the costs that have been paid. By all these parameters the simulation will be able to present in real time the information of a field (taxes, employees, R-factor). By this simulation the company will share some information with the government but not all of them. The government will know the taxes that should be paid and what is the sharing percentage of it. All of the other information could be confidential for the company. Furthermore, oil company could control the R-factor by changing the production each day to maximize its sharing percentages and as a result of this the profit. This idea aims to change the way that governments 'control' oil companies and bring a transparency evolution in the industry. With the help of a simulation every country could be next to the company and have a better collaboration.

Keywords: production sharing contracts, transparency, simulation

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Authors: Natalie Cutler, Lorna Moxham, Moira Stephens

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Safety is a priority in mental health services, and no more so than in the acute inpatient setting. Mental health service policies and accreditation frameworks commonly approach safety from a risk reduction or elimination perspective leading to service approaches that are arguably more focused on risk than on safety. An exploration what safety means for people who have experienced admission to an acute mental health inpatient unit is currently under way in Sydney, Australia. Using a phenomenographic research approach, this study is seeking to understand the meaning of safety from the perspective of people who use, rather than those who deliver mental health services. Preliminary findings suggest that the meanings of safety for users of mental health services vary from the meanings inherent in the policies and frameworks that inform how mental health services and mental health practice are delivered. This variance has implications for the physical and environmental design of acute mental health inpatient facilities, the policies and practices, and the education and training of mental health staff in particular nurses, who comprise the majority of the mental health workforce. These variances will be presented, along with their implications for the way quality and safety in mental health services are evaluated.

Keywords: acute inpatient, mental health, nursing, phenomenography, recovery, safety

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Authors: Jonas Palmer, Leon Brüning, Lukas Himmelsbach

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The worldwide ambitions to transform the transportation sector are increasingly affecting the safety conditions for all traffic participants and the required infrastructure. To contribute to the transformation and for health aspects, individuals search for carbon-free alternatives that include physical excitation. Especially e-bikes experience a growing demand within the last few years and consequently change the safety requirements. E-cyclists are exposed to amplified risks due to higher velocity in comparison to classic cyclists. Furthermore, cyclists suffer from a lack of infrastructure, rider assistance systems as well as awareness of other road users. For minimizing the risk of accidents, it is crucial to identify, develop and implement safety measures for cyclists. The paper aims to contribute to future research with delivering an overview of the latest publications and to subsequently identify essential research gaps. Therefore, it is essential to analyze the areas of technical adjustments as well as legal aspects and the correlation of both. The review`s insights can intensify the awareness of safety issues related to e-bikes and promote the development and implementation of appropriate measures.

Keywords: e-bike safety measures, future mobility, risk management, road safety

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Authors: Soha Saad, Jean Bigeon, Florence Ossart, Etienne Sourdille

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Developing better solutions for train rescheduling problems has been drawing the attention of researchers for decades. Most researches in this field deal with minor incidents that affect a large number of trains due to cascading effects. They focus on timetables, rolling stock and crew duties, but do not take into account infrastructure limits. The present work addresses electric infrastructure incidents that limit the power available for train traction, and hence the transportation capacity of the railway system. Rescheduling is needed in order to optimally share the available power among the different trains. We propose a rescheduling process based on dynamic multiphysics railway simulations that include the mechanical and electrical properties of all the system components and calculate physical quantities such as the train speed profiles, voltage along the catenary lines, temperatures, etc. The optimization problem to solve has a large number of continuous and discrete variables, several output constraints due to physical limitations of the system, and a high computation cost. Our approach includes a phase of sensitivity analysis in order to analyze the behavior of the system and help the decision making process and/or more precise optimization. This approach is a quantitative method based on simulation statistics of the dynamic railway system, considering a predefined range of variation of the input parameters. Three important settings are defined. Factor prioritization detects the input variables that contribute the most to the outputs variation. Then, factor fixing allows calibrating the input variables which do not influence the outputs. Lastly, factor mapping is used to study which ranges of input values lead to model realizations that correspond to feasible solutions according to defined criteria or objectives. Generalized Sobol indexes are used for factor prioritization and factor fixing. The approach is tested in the case of a simple railway system, with a nominal traffic running on a single track line. The considered incident is the loss of a feeding power substation, which limits the power available and the train speed. Rescheduling is needed and the variables to be adjusted are the trains departure times, train speed reduction at a given position and the number of trains (cancellation of some trains if needed). The results show that the spacing between train departure times is the most critical variable, contributing to more than 50% of the variation of the model outputs. In addition, we identify the reduced range of variation of this variable which guarantees that the output constraints are respected. Optimal solutions are extracted, according to different potential objectives: minimizing the traveling time, the train delays, the traction energy, etc. Pareto front is also built.

Keywords: optimization, rescheduling, railway system, sensitivity analysis, train timetable

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Authors: Michael Alsop, Hannah Heitz, Prathiba Natesan Batley, Marion Hambrick, Jason Immekus

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The impacts of cultural engagement on individuals’ health and well-being have been well documented. The purposes of this study were to create an instrument to measure wellbeing constructs, including cultural wellbeing, and explore the relationships between cultural wellbeing and other wellbeing constructs (e.g., emotional, social, physical, spiritual). A sample of 358 participants attending concerts performed by a civic orchestra in the southeastern United States completed a questionnaire designed to measure eight wellbeing constructs. Split-half exploratory, confirmatory factor analyses resulted in the retention of four wellbeing constructs: general, emotional, financial, and cultural. Structural equation modeling showed statistically significant relationships between cultural wellbeing and other wellbeing constructs. In addition to the indirect effect of financial wellbeing on emotional and general wellbeing through cultural wellbeing, there were also direct statistically significant relationships (i.e., moderator). This highlights the importance of removing financial barriers to cultural engagement and the relationship between cultural wellbeing on emotional and general wellbeing. Additionally, the retained cultural wellbeing items focused primarily on community features, indicating the value of community-based cultural engagement opportunities.

Keywords: cultural wellbeing, cultural engagement, factor analysis, structural equation modeling

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