Search results for: seasonal dependence

Authors: J. Valach, S. Pospisil, S. Kuznecov

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The paper deals with experimental estimation of future environmental load on medieval mosaic of Last Judgement on entrance to St. Vitus cathedral on Prague castle. The mosaic suffers from seasonal changes of weather pattern, as well as rains, their acidity, deposition of dust and sooth particles from polluted air and also from freeze-thaw cycles. These phenomena influence state of the mosaic. The mosaic elements, tesserae are mostly made from glass prone to weathering. To estimate future procedure of the best maintenance, relation between various weather scenarios and their effect on the mosaic was investigated. At the same time local method for evaluation of protective coating was developed. Together both methods will contribute to better care for the mosaic and also visitors aesthetical experience.

Keywords: environmental load, cultural heritage, glass mosaic, protection

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Authors: D. O. Ramadan, R. S. Dwyer-Joyce

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The measurement of the interface conditions in a cutting tool contact is essential information for performance monitoring and control. This interface provides the path for the heat flux to the cutting tool. This elevate in the cutting tool temperature leads to motivate the mechanism of tool wear, thus affect the life of the cutting tool and the productivity. This zone is representative by the tool-chip interface. Therefore, understanding and monitoring this interface is considered an important issue in machining. In this paper, an acoustic emission (AE) technique was used to find the correlation between AE parameters and the tool-chip interface. For this reason, a response surface design (RSD) has been used to analyse and optimize the machining parameters. The experiment design was based on the face centered, central composite design (CCD) in the Minitab environment. According to this design, a series of orthogonal cutting experiments for different cutting conditions were conducted on a Triumph 2500 lathe machine to study the sensitivity of the acoustic emission (AE) signal to change in tool-chip contact length. The cutting parameters investigated were the cutting speed, depth of cut, and feed and the experiments were performed for 6082-T6 aluminium tube. All the orthogonal cutting experiments were conducted unlubricated. The tool-chip contact area was investigated using a scanning electron microscope (SEM). The results obtained in this paper indicate that there is a strong dependence of the root mean square (RMS) on the cutting speed, where the RMS increases with increasing the cutting speed. A dependence on the tool-chip contact length has been also observed. However there was no effect observed of changing the cutting depth and feed on the RMS. These dependencies have been clarified in terms of the strain and temperature in the primary and secondary shear zones, also the tool-chip sticking and sliding phenomenon and the effect of these mechanical variables on dislocation activity at high strain rates. In conclusion, the acoustic emission technique has the potential to monitor in situ the tool-chip interface in turning and consequently could indicate the approaching end of life of a cutting tool.

Keywords: Acoustic emission, tool-chip interface, orthogonal cutting, monitoring

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Authors: Jean De Dieu Ayabagabo, Paul A.Onjoro, Karubiu P. Migwi, Marie C. Dusingize

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This study investigated the effects of feed on milk yield and quality through feed monitoring and quality assessment, and the consequent enteric methane gas emissions from smallholder dairy farms in drier areas of Rwanda, using the Tier II approach for four seasons in three zones, namely; Mayaga and peripheral Bugesera (MPB), Eastern Savanna and Central Bugesera (ESCB), and Eastern plateau (EP). The study was carried out using 186 dairy cows with a mean live weight of 292 Kg in three communal cowsheds. The milk quality analysis was carried out on 418 samples. Methane emission was estimated using prediction equations. Data collected were subjected to ANOVA. The dry matter intake was lower (p<0.05) in the long dry season (7.24 Kg), with the ESCB zone having the highest value of 9.10 Kg, explained by the practice of crop-livestock integration agriculture in that zone. The Dry matter digestibility varied between seasons and zones, ranging from 52.5 to 56.4% for seasons and from 51.9 to 57.5% for zones. The daily protein supply was higher (p<0.05) in the long rain season with 969 g. The mean daily milk production of lactating cows was 5.6 L with a lower value (p<0.05) during the long dry season (4.76 L), and the MPB zone having the lowest value of 4.65 L. The yearly milk production per cow was 1179 L. The milk fat varied from 3.79 to 5.49% with a seasonal and zone variation. No variation was observed with milk protein. The seasonal daily methane emission varied from 150 g for the long dry season to 174 g for the long rain season (p<0.05). The rain season had the highest methane emission as it is associated with high forage intake. The mean emission factor was 59.4 Kg of methane/year. The present EFs were higher than the default IPPC value of 41 Kg from developing countries in African, the Middle East, and other tropical regions livestock EFs using Tier I approach due to the higher live weight in the current study. The methane emission per unit of milk production was lower in the EP zone (46.8 g/L) due to the feed efficiency observed in that zone. Farmers should use high-quality feeds to increase the milk yield and reduce the methane gas produced per unit of milk. For an accurate assessment of the methane produced from dairy farms, there is a need for the use of the Life Cycle Assessment approach that considers all the sources of emissions.

Keywords: footprint, forage, girinka, tier

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Authors: Natalia Bustos Sierra, Katrien Tersago

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It is currently proven that both extremes of temperature are associated with increased mortality and that air pollution is associated with temperature. This relationship is complex, and in countries with important seasonal variations in weather such as Belgium, some effects can appear as non-significant when the analysis is done over the entire year. We, therefore, analyzed the effect of short-term outdoor air pollution exposure on cardiovascular mortality during the warmer and colder months separately. We used daily cardiovascular deaths from acute cardiovascular diagnostics according to the International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision (ICD-10: I20-I24, I44-I49, I50, I60-I66) during the period 2008-2013. The environmental data were population-weighted concentrations of particulates with an aerodynamic diameter less than 10 µm (PM₁₀) and less than 2.5 µm (PM₂.₅) (daily average), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) (daily maximum of the hourly average) and ozone (O₃) (daily maximum of the 8-hour running mean). A Generalized linear model was applied adjusting for the confounding effect of season, temperature, dew point temperature, the day of the week, public holidays and the incidence of influenza-like illness (ILI) per 100,000 inhabitants. The relative risks (RR) were calculated for an increase of one interquartile range (IQR) of the air pollutant (μg/m³). These were presented for the four hottest months (June, July, August, September) and coldest months (November, December, January, February) in Belgium. We applied both individual lag model and unconstrained distributed lag model methods. The cumulative effect of a four-day exposure (day of exposure and three consecutive days) was calculated from the unconstrained distributed lag model. The IQR for PM₁₀, PM₂.₅, NO₂, and O₃ were respectively 8.2, 6.9, 12.9 and 25.5 µg/m³ during warm months and 18.8, 17.6, 18.4 and 27.8 µg/m³ during cold months. The association with CV mortality was statistically significant for the four pollutants during warm months and only for NO₂ during cold months. During the warm months, the cumulative effect of an IQR increase of ozone for the age groups 25-64, 65-84 and 85+ was 1.066 (95%CI: 1.002-1.135), 1.041 (1.008-1.075) and 1.036 (1.013-1.058) respectively. The cumulative effect of an IQR increase of NO₂ for the age group 65-84 was 1.066 (1.020-1.114) during warm months and 1.096 (1.030-1.166) during cold months. The cumulative effect of an IQR increase of PM₁₀ during warm months reached 1.046 (1.011-1.082) and 1.038 (1.015-1.063) for the age groups 65-84 and 85+ respectively. Similar results were observed for PM₂.₅. The short-term effect of air pollution on cardiovascular mortality is greater during warm months for lower pollutant concentrations compared to cold months. Spending more time outside during warm months increases population exposure to air pollution and can, therefore, be a confounding factor for this association. Age can also affect the length of time spent outdoors and the type of physical activity exercised. This study supports the deleterious effect of air pollution on cardiovascular mortality (CV) which varies according to season and age groups in Belgium. Public health measures should, therefore, be adapted to seasonality.

Keywords: air pollution, cardiovascular, mortality, season

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Authors: Ashish Lochan, Anil K. Dahiya, Amit Verma

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The idea of combining photovoltaic and solar thermal collector to provide electrical and heat energy is not new, however, it is an area of limited attention. Hybrid photovoltaic-thermals have become a focus point of interest in the field of solar energy. Integration of both (photovoltaic and thermal collector) provide greater opportunity for the use of renewable solar energy. This system converts solar energy into electricity and heat energy simultaneously. Theoretical performance analyses of hybrid PV/Ts have been carried out. Also, the temperature of water (as a heat carrier) have been calculated for different seasons with the help of TRANSYS.

Keywords: photovoltaic-thermal, solar energy, seasonal performance analysis, TRANSYS

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Authors: E. S. Manuylovich, V. A. Astapenko, P. A. Golovinsky

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The dispersion relation binding the constant of propagation and frequency is calculated for silver cone. The evolution of the electric field of ultrashort pulse during its propagation in conical structure is considered. Increasing of electric field during pulse propagation to the top of the cone is observed. Reduction of the pulse duration at a certain distance is observed. The dependence of minimum pulse duration on initial chirp and cone angle is investigated.

Keywords: ultrashort pulses, surface plasmon polariton, dispersion, silver cone

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Authors: E. N. Vetrova, L.V. Lapochkina, N. V. Nikulina

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In the national economy, entrepreneurship plays the role of a buffer between economy and policy for it contributes to improving budget effectiveness and decreasing dependence of economy on the state. Entrepreneurship in industry makes it possible to increase the added value that is formed in production chains and to decrease dependence on import. Under the current circumstances, when sanctions are being imposed, this is especially relevant for Russia and for the realization of projects in the Russian Arctic. However, development of entrepreneurship in industry requires an enlightened state policy. The purpose of the research is elaboration of recommendations for improving economic effectiveness of the realization of the Arctic projects on the basis of conceptual proposals for the development of entrepreneurship in industry. The paper presents the studies of the extractive industry role in the Russian economy and proves its raw material character. The analysis of production chains in industry on the basis of the conception of the added value global chains demonstrated a low added value formed by Russian companies. The study of changes in the structure of economy based on systemic, statistical and comparative analyses revealed no positive changes in the structure of economy over the period under consideration. This is a manifestation of ineffectiveness of the Russian industrial policy in general and within the Arctic region in particular. The authors identified the problems information and implementation of the state industrial policy in the Arctic region and in the development of national entrepreneurship, analyzed the shortcomings of the current state policy in the sphere of the Russian industry. On the basis of the conducted studies, the authors formulated conceptual approaches to change the state policy in the Arctic. The basic idea of the authors is to substantiate the focus of the state regulation on the development of entrepreneurship in industry in the process of the Russian Arctic exploration. At the same time another problem is solved–that of the development of the manufacturing industry in the southern regions of the northwestern part of Russia. The criterion of effectiveness in this case is the economic effectiveness.

Keywords: entrepreneurship in industry, global chains of the added value, government regulation, industrial policies, production chains in the arctic region, economic effectiveness

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Authors: Razaq A. Olaitan, Ayansina Ayanlade

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Understanding aerosol properties is the main goal of global research in order to lower the uncertainty associated with climate change in the trends and magnitude of aerosol particles. In order to identify aerosol particle types, optical properties, and the relationship between aerosol properties and particle concentration between 2019 and 2021, a study conducted in Ilorin, Nigeria, examined the aerosol robotic network's ground-based sun/sky scanning radiometer. The AERONET algorithm version 2 was utilized to retrieve monthly data on aerosol optical depth and angstrom exponent. The version 3 algorithm, which is an almucantar level 2 inversion, was employed to retrieve daily data on single scattering albedo and aerosol size distribution. Excel 2016 was used to analyze the data's monthly, seasonal, and annual mean averages. The distribution of different types of aerosols was analyzed using scatterplots, and the optical properties of the aerosol were investigated using pertinent mathematical theorems. To comprehend the relationships between particle concentration and properties, correlation statistics were employed. Based on the premise that aerosol characteristics must remain constant in both magnitude and trend across time and space, the study's findings indicate that the types of aerosols identified between 2019 and 2021 are as follows: 29.22% urban industrial (UI) aerosol type, 37.08% desert (D) aerosol type, 10.67% biomass burning (BB), and 23.03% urban mix (Um) aerosol type. Convective wind systems, which frequently carry particles as they blow over long distances in the atmosphere, have been responsible for the peak-of-the-columnar aerosol loadings, which were observed during August of the study period. The study has shown that while coarse mode particles dominate, fine particles are increasing in seasonal and annual trends. Burning biomass and human activities in the city are linked to these trends. The study found that the majority of particles are highly absorbing black carbon, with the fine mode having a volume median radius of 0.08 to 0.12 meters. The investigation also revealed that there is a positive coefficient of correlation (r = 0.57) between changes in aerosol particle concentration and changes in aerosol properties. Human activity is rapidly increasing in Ilorin, causing changes in aerosol properties, indicating potential health risks from climate change and human influence on geological and environmental systems.

Keywords: aerosol loading, aerosol types, health risks, optical properties

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Authors: Sarkawt M. Hama, Paul S. Monks, Rebecca L. Cordell

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Within the Joaquin project, ultrafine particles (UFP) are continuously measured at one urban background site in Leicester. The main aims are to examine the temporal and seasonal variations in UFP number concentration and size distribution in an urban environment, and to try to assess the added value of continuous UFP measurements. In addition, relations of UFP with more commonly monitored pollutants such as black carbon (BC), nitrogen oxides (NOX), particulate matter (PM2.5), and the lung deposited surface area(LDSA) were evaluated. The effects of meteorological conditions, particularly wind speed and direction, and also temperature on the observed distribution of ultrafine particles will be detailed. The study presents the results from an experimental investigation into the particle number concentration size distribution of UFP, BC, and NOX with measurements taken at the Automatic Urban and Rural Network (AURN) monitoring site in Leicester. The monitoring was performed as part of the EU project JOAQUIN (Joint Air Quality Initiative) supported by the INTERREG IVB NWE program. The total number concentrations (TNC) were measured by a water-based condensation particle counter (W-CPC) (TSI model 3783), the particle number concentrations (PNC) and size distributions were measured by an ultrafine particle monitor (UFP TSI model 3031), the BC by MAAP (Thermo-5012), the NOX by NO-NO2-NOx monitor (Thermos Scientific 42i), and a Nanoparticle Surface Area Monitor (NSAM, TSI 3550) was used to measure the LDSA (reported as μm2 cm−3) corresponding to the alveolar region of the lung between November 2013 and November 2015. The average concentrations of particle number concentrations were observed in summer with lower absolute values of PNC than in winter might be related mainly to particles directly emitted by traffic and to the more favorable conditions of atmospheric dispersion. Results showed a traffic-related diurnal variation of UFP, BC, NOX and LDSA with clear morning and evening rush hour peaks on weekdays, only an evening peak at the weekends. Correlation coefficients were calculated between UFP and other pollutants (BC and NOX). The highest correlation between them was found in winter months. Overall, the results support the notion that local traffic emissions were a major contributor of the atmospheric particles pollution and a clear seasonal pattern was found, with higher values during the cold season.

Keywords: size distribution, traffic emissions, UFP, urban area

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Authors: Viktor Soprunyuk, Wilfried Schranz, Patrick Huber

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In the present work, we show that Dynamic Mechanical Analysis (DMA) with a measurement frequency range f= 0.2 - 100 Hz is a rather powerful technique for the study of phase transitions (freezing and melting) and glass transitions of water in geometrical confinement. Inserting water into nanoporous host matrices, like e.g. Gelsil (size of pores 2.6 nm and 5 nm) or Vycor (size of pores 10 nm) allows one to study size effects occurring at the nanoscale conveniently in macroscopic bulk samples. One obtains valuable insight concerning confinement induced changes of the dynamics by measuring the temperature and frequency dependencies of the complex Young's modulus Y* for various pore sizes. Solid-liquid transitions or glass-liquid transitions show up in a softening or the real part Y' of the complex Young's modulus, yet with completely different frequency dependencies. Analysing the frequency dependent imaginary part of the Young´s modulus in the glass transition regions for different pore sizes we find a clear-cut 1/d-dependence of the calculated glass transition temperatures which extrapolates to Tg(1/d=0)=136 K, in agreement with the traditional value of water. The results indicate that the main role of the pore diameter is the relative amount of water molecules that are near an interface within a length scale of the order of the dynamic correlation length x. Thus we argue that the observed strong pore size dependence of Tg is an interfacial effect, rather than a finite size effect. We obtained similar signatures of Y* near glass transitions in different biological objects (fruits, vegetables, and bread). The values of the activation energies for these biological materials in the region of glass transition are quite similar to the values of the activation energies of supercooled water in the nanoporous confinement in this region. The present work was supported by the Austrian Science Fund (FWF, project Nr. P 28672 – N36).

Keywords: biological systems, liquids, glasses, amorphous systems, nanoporous materials, phase transition

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Authors: Jyoti Sahu, Vinay A. Juvekar

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Electrolytes are often used to bring about salting-in and salting-out of organic molecules and polymers (e.g. polyethylene glycols/proteins) from the aqueous solutions. For quantification of these phenomena, a thermodynamic model which can accurately predict activity coefficient of electrolyte as a function of temperature is needed. The thermodynamics models available in the literature contain a large number of empirical parameters. These parameters are estimated using lower/upper critical solution temperature of the solution in the electrolyte/organic molecule at different temperatures. Since the number of parameters is large, inaccuracy can bethe creep in during their estimation, which can affect the reliability of prediction beyond the range in which these parameters are estimated. Cloud point of solution is related to its free energy through temperature and composition derivative. Hence, the Cloud point measurement can be used for accurate estimation of the temperature and composition dependence of parameters in the model for free energy. Hence, if we use a two pronged procedure in which we first use cloud point of solution to estimate some of the parameters of the thermodynamic model and determine the rest using osmotic coefficient data, we gain on two counts. First, since the parameters, estimated in each of the two steps, are fewer, we achieve higher accuracy of estimation. The second and more important gain is that the resulting model parameters are more sensitive to temperature. This is crucial when we wish to use the model outside temperatures window within which the parameter estimation is sought. The focus of the present work is to prove this proposition. We have used electrolyte (NaCl/Na2CO3)-water-organic molecule (Iso-propanol/ethanol) as the model system. The model of Robinson-Stokes-Glukauf is modified by incorporating the temperature dependent Flory-Huggins interaction parameters. The Helmholtz free energy expression contains, in addition to electrostatic and translational entropic contributions, three Flory-Huggins pairwise interaction contributions viz., and (w-water, p-polymer, s-salt). These parameters depend both on temperature and concentrations. The concentration dependence is expressed in the form of a quadratic expression involving the volume fractions of the interacting species. The temperature dependence is expressed in the form .To obtain the temperature-dependent interaction parameters for organic molecule-water and electrolyte-water systems, Critical solution temperature of electrolyte -water-organic molecules is measured using cloud point measuring apparatus The temperature and composition dependent interaction parameters for electrolyte-water-organic molecule are estimated through measurement of cloud point of solution. The model is used to estimate critical solution temperature (CST) of electrolyte water-organic molecules solution. We have experimentally determined the critical solution temperature of different compositions of electrolyte-water-organic molecule solution and compared the results with the estimates based on our model. The two sets of values show good agreement. On the other hand when only osmotic coefficients are used for estimation of the free energy model, CST predicted using the resulting model show poor agreement with the experiments. Thus, the importance of the CST data in the estimation of parameters of the thermodynamic model is confirmed through this work.

Keywords: concentrated electrolytes, Debye-Hückel theory, interaction parameters, Robinson-Stokes-Glueckauf model, Flory-Huggins model, critical solution temperature

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Authors: Al Mutawa A. Amir, Liaqat Ali, Faisal Ali

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After the World War II, the world economy was disrupted and changed due to oil and its prices. The research in this paper presents the basic statistical features and economic characteristics of the Gulf economy. The main features of the Gulf economies and its heavy dependence on oil exports, its dualism between modern and traditional sectors and its rapidly increasing affluences are particularly emphasized.  In this context, the research in this paper discussed the problems of growth versus development and has attempted to draw the implications for the future economic development of this area.

Keywords: oil prices, GCC, economic growth, gulf oil

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Authors: E. O. Clarke, O. J. Aderinola, O. A. Adeboyejo, M. A. Anetekhai

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Aims: The study is aimed at establishing the influence of some physical and chemical parameters on the abundance, distribution pattern and seasonal variations of the planktonic crustacean populations. Place and Duration of Study: A premier investigation into the dynamics of planktonic crustacean populations in Ologe lagoon was carried out from January 2011 to December 2012. Study Design: The study covered identification, temporal abundance, spatial distribution and diversity of the planktonic crustacea. Methodology: Standard techniques were used to collect samples from eleven stations covering five proximal satellite towns (Idoluwo, Oto, Ibiye, Obele, and Gbanko) bordering the lagoon. Data obtained were statistically analyzed using linear regression and hierarchical clustering. Results:Thirteen (13) planktonic crustacean populations were identified. Total percentage abundance was highest for Bosmina species (20%) and lowest for Polyphemus species (0.8%). The Pearson’s correlation coefficient (“r” values) between total planktonic crustacean population and some physical and chemical parameters showed that positive correlations having low level of significance occurred with salinity (r = 0.042) (sig = 0.184) and with surface water dissolved oxygen (r = 0.299) (sig = 0.155). Linear regression plots indicated that, the total population of planktonic crustacea were mainly influenced and only increased with an increase in value of surface water temperature (Rsq = 0.791) and conductivity (Rsq = 0.589). The total population of planktonic crustacea had a near neutral (zero correlation) with the surface water dissolved oxygen and thus, does not significantly change with the level of the surface water dissolved oxygen. The correlations were positive with NO3-N (midstream) at Ibiye (Rsq =0.022) and (downstream) Gbanko (Rsq =0.013), PO4-P at Ibiye (Rsq =0.258), K at Idoluwo (Rsq =0.295) and SO4-S at Oto (Rsq = 0.094) and Gbanko (Rsq = 0.457). The Berger-Parker Dominance Index (BPDI) showed that the most dominant species was Bosmina species (BPDI = 1.000), followed by Calanus species (BPDI = 1.254). Clusters by squared Euclidan distances using average linkage between groups showed proximities, transcending the borders of genera. Conclusion: The results revealed that planktonic crustacean population in Ologe lagoon undergo seasonal perturbations, were highly influenced by nutrient, metal and organic matter inputs from river Owoh, Agbara industrial estate and surrounding farmlands and were patchy in spatial distribution.

Keywords: diversity, dominance, perturbations, richness, crustacea, lagoon

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Authors: Maphuti Georgina Kwata

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Coal mining in Mpumalanga Province is known of contributing to the atmospheric pollution from various activities. Gold mining in North-West Province is known of also contributing to the atmospheric pollution especially with the production of radon gas. In this research directional dust deposition gauge was used to measure source of direction and meteorological data was used to determine the wind rose blowing and the influence of the seasonal changes. Fourteen months of dust collection was undertaken in Witbank Area and Carletonville Area. The results shows that the sources of direction for Ericson Dam its East in February 2010 and Tip Area shows that the source of direction its West in October 2010. In the East direction there were mining operations, power stations which contributed to the East to be the sources of direction. In the West direction there were smelters, power stations and agricultural activities which contributed for the source of direction to be the West direction for Driefontein Mine: East Recreational Village Club. The East of Leslie Williams hospital is the source of direction which also indicated that there dust generating activities such as mining operation, agricultural activities. The meteorological results for Emalahleni Area in summer and winter the wind rose blow with wind speed of 5-10 ms-1 from the East sector. Annual average for the wind rose blow its East South eastern sector with 20 ms-1 and day time the wind rose from northwestern sector with excess of 20 ms-1. The night time wind direction East-eastern direction with a maximum wind speed of 20 ms-1. The meteorogical results for Driefontein Mine show that North-western sector and north-eastern sector wind rose is blowing with 5-10 ms-1 win speed. Day time wind blows from the West sector and night time wind blows from the north sector. In summer the wind blows North-east sector with 5-10 ms-1 and winter wind blows from North-west and it’s also predominant. In spring wind blows from north-east. The conclusion is that not only mining operation where the directional dust deposit gauge were installed contributed to the source of direction also the power stations, smelters, and other activities nearby the mining operation contributed. The recommendations are the dust suppressant for unpaved roads should be used on a regular basis and there should be monitoring of the weather conditions (the wind speed and direction prior to blasting to ensure minimal emissions).

Keywords: directional dust deposition gauge, BS part 5 1747 dust deposit gauge, wind rose, wind blowing

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Authors: Rachid Belhachemi, Pierre Rostan, Alexandra Rostan

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This paper develops a discrete-time option pricing model for index options. The model consists of two key ingredients. First, daily stock return innovations are driven by a continuous hidden threshold mixed skew-normal (HTSN) distribution which generates conditional non-normality that is needed to fit daily index return. The most important feature of the HTSN is the inclusion of a latent state variable with a continuum of states, unlike the traditional mixture distributions where the state variable is discrete with little number of states. The HTSN distribution belongs to the class of univariate probability distributions where parameters of the distribution capture the dependence between the variable of interest and the continuous latent state variable (the regime). The distribution has an interpretation in terms of a mixture distribution with time-varying mixing probabilities. It has been shown empirically that this distribution outperforms its main competitor, the mixed normal (MN) distribution, in terms of capturing the stylized facts known for stock returns, namely, volatility clustering, leverage effect, skewness, kurtosis and regime dependence. Second, heteroscedasticity in the model is captured by a threeexogenous-factor GARCH model (GARCHX), where the factors are taken from the principal components analysis of various world indices and presents an application to option pricing. The factors of the GARCHX model are extracted from a matrix of world indices applying principal component analysis (PCA). The empirically determined factors are uncorrelated and represent truly different common components driving the returns. Both factors and the eight parameters inherent to the HTSN distribution aim at capturing the impact of the state of the economy on price levels since distribution parameters have economic interpretations in terms of conditional volatilities and correlations of the returns with the hidden continuous state. The PCA identifies statistically independent factors affecting the random evolution of a given pool of assets -in our paper a pool of international stock indices- and sorting them by order of relative importance. The PCA computes a historical cross asset covariance matrix and identifies principal components representing independent factors. In our paper, factors are used to calibrate the HTSN-GARCHX model and are ultimately responsible for the nature of the distribution of random variables being generated. We benchmark our model to the MN-GARCHX model following the same PCA methodology and the standard Black-Scholes model. We show that our model outperforms the benchmark in terms of RMSE in dollar losses for put and call options, which in turn outperforms the analytical Black-Scholes by capturing the stylized facts known for index returns, namely, volatility clustering, leverage effect, skewness, kurtosis and regime dependence.

Keywords: continuous hidden threshold, factor models, GARCHX models, option pricing, risk-premium

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Authors: J. K. Karapetyan

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In this paper seismological-statistical analysis of actual instrumental data on the main tremor of the Great Japan earthquake 11.03.2011 is implemented for finding out the dependence between maximal values of peak ground accelerations (PGA) and epicentric distances. A number of peculiarities of manifestation of accelerations' maximum values at the interval of long epicentric distances are revealed which do not correspond with current scales of seismic intensity.

Keywords: earthquakes, instrumental records, seismic hazard, Japan

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Authors: Mariyan Tomov

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Bulgarian working class immigrants are increasingly concerned with UK’s recent immigration policies in the context of Brexit. The new ID system would exclude many people currently working in Britain and would break the usual immigrant travel patterns. Post-Brexit Britain would aim to repeal seasonal immigrants. Measures for keeping long-term and life-long immigrants have been implemented and migrants that aim to remain in Britain and establish a household there would be more privileged than temporary or seasonal workers. The results of such regulating mechanisms come at the expense of migrants’ longings for a ‘normal’ existence, especially for those coming from Central and Eastern Europe. Based on in-depth interviews with Bulgarian working class immigrants, the study found out that their major concerns following the decision of the UK to leave the EU are related with the freedom to travel, reside and work in the UK. Furthermore, many of the interviewed women are concerned that they could lose some of the EU's fundamental rights, such as maternity and protection of pregnant women from unlawful dismissal. The soar of commodity prices and university fees and the limited access to public services, healthcare and social benefits in the UK, are also subject to discussion in the paper. The most serious problem, according to the interview, is that the attitude towards Bulgarians and other immigrants in the UK is deteriorating. Both traditional and social media in the UK often portray the migrants negatively by claiming that they take British job positions while simultaneously abuse the welfare system. As a result, the Bulgarian migrants often face social exclusion, which might have negative influence on their health and welfare. In this sense, some of the interviewed stress on the fact that the most important changes after Brexit must take place in British society itself. The aim of the proposed study is to provide a better understanding of the Bulgarian migrants’ economic, health and sociocultural experience in the context of Brexit. Methodologically, the proposed paper leans on: 1. Analysing ethnographic materials dedicated to the pre- and post-migratory experiences of Bulgarian working class migrants, using SPSS. 2. Semi-structured interviews are conducted with more than 50 Bulgarian working class migrants [N > 50] in the UK, between 18 and 65 years. The communication with the interviewees was possible via Viber/Skype or face-to-face interaction. 3. The analysis is guided by theoretical frameworks. The paper has been developed within the framework of the research projects of the National Scientific Fund of Bulgaria: DCOST 01/25-20.02.2017 supporting COST Action CA16111 ‘International Ethnic and Immigrant Minorities Survey Data Network’.

Keywords: Bulgarian migrants in UK, economic experiences, sociocultural experiences, Brexit

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Authors: Erika Yamaguchi, Sirawadee Arunyanrt, Shunichi Ohmori, Kazuho Yoshimoto

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In this paper, we suggest a simulation tool to make a decision of monthly production planning for maximizing a profit of Specialty store retailer of Private label Apparel (SPA) firms. Most of SPA firms are fabless and make outsourcing deals for productions with factories of their subcontractors. Every month, SPA firms make a booking for production lines and manpower in the factories. The booking is conducted a few months in advance based on a demand prediction and a monthly production planning at that time. However, the demand prediction is updated month by month, and the monthly production planning would change to meet the latest demand prediction. Then, SPA firms have to change the capacities initially booked within a certain range to suit to the monthly production planning. The booking system is called “capacity-booking”. These days, though it is an issue for SPA firms to make precise monthly production planning, many firms are still conducting the production planning by empirical rules. In addition, it is also a challenge for SPA firms to match their products and factories with considering their demand predictabilities and regulation abilities. In this paper, we suggest a model for considering these two issues. An objective is to maximize a total profit of certain periods, which is sales minus costs of production, inventory, and capacity-booking penalty. To make a better monthly production planning at SPA firms, these points should be considered: demand predictabilities by random trends, previous and next month’s production planning of the target month, and regulation abilities of the capacity-booking. To decide matching products and factories for outsourcing, it is important to consider seasonality, volume, and predictability of each product, production possibility, size, and regulation ability of each factory. SPA firms have to consider these constructions and decide orders with several factories per one product. We modeled these issues as a linear programming. To validate the model, an example of several computational experiments with a SPA firm is presented. We suppose four typical product groups: basic, seasonal (Spring / Summer), seasonal (Fall / Winter), and spot product. As a result of the experiments, a monthly production planning was provided. In the planning, demand predictabilities from random trend are reduced by producing products which are different product types. Moreover, priorities to produce are given to high-margin products. In conclusion, we developed a simulation tool to make a decision of monthly production planning which is useful when the production planning is set every month. We considered the features of capacity-booking, and matching of products and factories which have different features and conditions.

Keywords: capacity-booking, SPA, monthly production planning, linear programming

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Authors: C. Slim

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Traditional techniques for analyzing time series are based on the notion of stationarity of phenomena under study, but in reality most economic and financial series do not verify this hypothesis, which implies the implementation of specific tools for the detection of such behavior. In this paper, we study nonstationary non-seasonal time series tests in a non-exhaustive manner. We formalize the problem of nonstationary processes with numerical simulations and take stock of their statistical characteristics. The theoretical aspects of some of the most common unit root tests will be discussed. We detail the specification of the tests, showing the advantages and disadvantages of each. The empirical study focuses on the application of these tests to the exchange rate (USD/TND) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Tunisia, in order to compare the Power of these tests with the characteristics of the series.

Keywords: stationarity, unit root tests, economic time series, ADF tests

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Authors: Victor O. Abegunde, Melusi Sibanda

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There is need for a great deal of attention on small-scale agriculture for livelihood and food security because of the expanding global population. Small-scale agriculture has been identified as a major driving force of agricultural and rural development. However, the high dependence of the sector on natural and climatic resources has made small-scale farmers highly vulnerable to the adverse impact of climatic change thereby necessitating the need for embracing practices or concepts that will help absorb shocks from changes in climatic condition. This study examines the strategic position of small-scale farming in South African agriculture and in ensuring food security in the country, the vulnerability of small-scale agriculture to climate change and the potential of the concept of climate-smart agriculture to tackle the challenge of climate change. The study carried out a systematic review of peer-reviewed literature touching small-scale agriculture, climate change, food security and climate-smart agriculture, employing the realist review method. Findings revealed that increased productivity in the small-scale agricultural sector has a great potential of improving the food security of households in South Africa and reducing dependence on food purchase in a context of high food price inflation. Findings, however, also revealed that climate change affects small-scale subsistence farmers in terms of productivity, food security and family income, categorizing the impact on smallholder livelihoods into three major groups; biological processes, environmental and physical processes and impact on health. Analysis of the literature consistently showed that climate-smart agriculture integrates the benefits of adaptation and resilience to climate change, mitigation, and food security. As a result, farming households adopting climate-smart agriculture will be better off than their counterparts who do not. This study concludes that climate-smart agriculture could be a very good bridge linking small-scale agricultural sector and agricultural productivity and development which could bring about the much needed food security.

Keywords: climate change, climate-smart agriculture, food security, small-scale

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Authors: Varis Ransibrahmanakul, Doug Pirhalla, Scott Sheridan, Cameron Lee

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U.S. coastal areas and ecosystems are facing multiple sea level rise threats and effects: heavy rain events, cyclones, and changing wind and weather patterns all influence coastal flooding, sedimentation, and erosion along critical barrier islands and can strongly impact habitat resiliency and water quality in protected habitats. These impacts are increasing over time and have accelerated the need for new tracking techniques, models and tools of flood risk to support enhanced preparedness for coastal management and mitigation. To address this issue, NOAA National Ocean Service (NOS) evaluated new metrics from satellite altimetry AVISO/Copernicus and MODIS IR flood extents to isolate nodes atmospheric variability indicative of elevated sea level and nuisance flood events. Using de-trended time series of cross-shelf sea surface heights (SSH), we identified specific Self Organizing Maps (SOM) nodes and transitions having a strongest regional association with oceanic spatial patterns (e.g., heightened downwelling favorable wind-stress and enhanced southward coastal transport) indicative of elevated coastal sea levels. Results show the impacts of the inverted barometer effect as well as the effects of surface wind forcing; Ekman-induced transport along broad expanses of the U.S. eastern coastline. Higher sea levels and corresponding localized flooding are associated with either pattern indicative of enhanced on-shore flow, deepening cyclones, or local- scale winds, generally coupled with an increased local to regional precipitation. These findings will support an integration of satellite products and will inform seasonal outlook model development supported through NOAAs Climate Program Office and NOS office of Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services (CO-OPS). Overall results will prioritize ecological areas and coastal lab facilities at risk based on numbers of nuisance flood projected and inform coastal management of flood risk around low lying areas subjected to bank erosion.

Keywords: AVISO satellite altimetry SSHA, MODIS IR flood map, nuisance flood, remote sensing of flood

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Authors: Rezvan Ravanfar Haghighi, V. C. Vani, Suresh Perumal, Sabyasachi Chatterjee, Pratik Kumar

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X-ray attenuation coefficient [µ(E)] of any substance, for energy (E), is a sum of the contributions from the Compton scattering [ μCom(E)] and photoelectric effect [µPh(E)]. In terms of the, electron density (ρe) and the effective atomic number (Zeff) we have µCom(E) is proportional to [(ρe)fKN(E)] while µPh(E) is proportional to [(ρeZeffx)/Ey] with fKN(E) being the Klein-Nishina formula, with x and y being the exponents for photoelectric effect. By taking the sample's HU at two different excitation voltages (V=V1, V2) of the CT machine, we can solve for X=ρe, Y=ρeZeffx from these two independent equations, as is attempted in DECT inversion. Since µCom(E) and µPh(E) are both energy dependent, the coefficients of inversion are also dependent on (a) the source spectrum S(E,V) and (b) the detector efficiency D(E) of the CT machine. In the present paper we tabulate these coefficients of inversion for different practical manifestations of S(E,V) and D(E). The HU(V) values from the CT follow: <µ(V)>=<µw(V)>[1+HU(V)/1000] where the subscript 'w' refers to water and the averaging process <….> accounts for the source spectrum S(E,V) and the detector efficiency D(E). Linearity of μ(E) with respect to X and Y implies that (a) <µ(V)> is a linear combination of X and Y and (b) for inversion, X and Y can be written as linear combinations of two independent observations <µ(V1)>, <µ(V2)> with V1≠V2. These coefficients of inversion would naturally depend upon S(E, V) and D(E). We numerically investigate this dependence for some practical cases, by taking V = 100 , 140 kVp, as are used for cardiological investigations. The S(E,V) are generated by using the Boone-Seibert source spectrum, being superposed on aluminium filters of different thickness lAl with 7mm≤lAl≤12mm and the D(E) is considered to be that of a typical Si[Li] solid state and GdOS scintilator detector. In the values of X and Y, found by using the calculated inversion coefficients, errors are below 2% for data with solutions of glycerol, sucrose and glucose. For low Zeff materials like propionic acid, Zeffx is overestimated by 20% with X being within1%. For high Zeffx materials like KOH the value of Zeffx is underestimated by 22% while the error in X is + 15%. These imply that the source may have additional filtering than the aluminium filter specified by the manufacturer. Also it is found that the difference in the values of the inversion coefficients for the two types of detectors is negligible. The type of the detector does not affect on the DECT inversion algorithm to find the unknown chemical characteristic of the scanned materials. The effect of the source should be considered as an important factor to calculate the coefficients of inversion.

Keywords: attenuation coefficient, computed tomography, photoelectric effect, source spectrum

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Authors: G. V. Vaniprabha, S. Madhusudhan, S. G. Jadhav

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The purpose of this study was to explore the pattern of alcohol use, mode of suicide and extent of depression among 150 female commercial sex workers (CSWs) in Bangalore, India. After going through a short detoxification programme of two weeks, Karma yoga principles of Shrimad Bhagavad Gita were used as a tool for cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) for a period of four weeks to maintain abstinence and help with their depression. A six month follow up indicated that they had maintained abstinence over that period and had not attempted suicide, either.

Keywords: alcohol dependence, depression, commercial sex workers, suicide

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Authors: A. Belay, B. Kebede

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The concentration- and temperature-dependent refractive indices of solutions extracted from defective and non-defective coffee beans have been investigated using a He–Ne laser. The refractive index has a linear relationship with the presumed concentration of the coffee solutions in the range of 0.5–3%. Higher and lower values of refractive index were obtained for immature and non-defective coffee beans, respectively. The Refractive index of bean extracts can be successfully used to separate defective from non-defective beans.

Keywords: coffee extract, refractive index, temperature dependence

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Authors: Waraporn Boonchieng, Ekkarat Boonchieng, Sivaporn Aungwattana, Decha Tamdee, Wongamporn Pinyavong

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Drug addiction represents one of the most important public health issues in both developed and developing countries. The purpose of this study was to develop a drug abuse health information in a community in Northern Thailand using developmental research design. The developmental researchers performed four phases to develop drug abuse health information, including 1) synthesizing knowledge related to drug abuse prevention and identifying the components of drug abuse health information; 2) developing the system in mobile application and website; 3) implementing drug abuse health information in the rural community; and 4) evaluating the feasibility of drug abuse health information. Data collection involved both qualitative and quantitative procedures. The qualitative data and quantitative data were analyzed using content analysis and descriptive statistics, respectively. The findings of this study showed that drug abuse health information consisted of five sections, including drug-related prevention knowledge for teens, drug-related knowledge for adults and professionals, the database for drug dependence treatment centers, self-administered questionnaires, and supportive counseling sections. First, in drug-related prevention knowledge for teens, the developmental researchers designed four infographics and animation to provide drug-related prevention knowledge, including types of illegal drugs, causes of drug abuse, consequences of drug abuse, drug abuse diagnosis and treatment, and drug abuse prevention. Second, in drug-related knowledge for adults and professionals, the developmental researchers developed many documents in a form of PDF file to provide drug-related knowledge, including types of illegal drugs, causes of drug abuse, drug abuse prevention, and relapse prevention guideline. Third, database for drug dependence treatment centers included the place, direction map, operation time, and the way for contacting all drug dependence treatment centers in Thailand. Fourth, self-administered questionnaires comprised preventive drugs behavior questionnaire, drug abuse knowledge questionnaire, the stages of change readiness and treatment eagerness to drug use scale, substance use behaviors questionnaire, tobacco use behaviors questionnaire, stress screening, and depression screening. Finally, for supportive counseling, the developmental researchers designed chatting box through which each user could write and send their concerns to counselors individually. Results from evaluation process showed that 651 participants used drug abuse health information via mobile application and website. Among all users, 48.8% were males and 51.2% were females. More than half (55.3%) were 15-20 years old and most of them (88.0%) were Buddhists. Most users reported ever getting knowledge related to drugs (86.1%), and drinking alcohol (94.2%) while some of them (6.9%) reported ever using tobacco. For satisfaction with using the drug abuse health information, more than half of users reflected that the contents of drug abuse health information were interesting (59%), up-to date (61%), and highly useful to their self-study (59%) at high level. In addition, half of them were satisfied with the design in terms of infographics (54%) and animation (51%). Thus, this drug abuse health information can be adopted to explore drug abuse situation and serves as a tool to prevent drug abuse and addiction among Thai community people.

Keywords: drug addiction, health informatics, big data, development research

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Authors: Alam Ali, Ashok Kumar Pathak

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Nowadays, copulas have attracted significant attention for modeling multivariate observations, and the foremost feature of copula functions is that they give us the liberty to study the univariate marginal distributions and their joint behavior separately. The copula parameter apprehends the intrinsic dependence among the marginal variables, and it can be estimated using parametric, semiparametric, or nonparametric techniques. This work aims to compare the coverage rates between an Elliptical and an Archimedean family of copulas via a fully parametric estimation technique.

Keywords: elliptical copula, archimedean copula, estimation, coverage rate

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Authors: Suzana Leitão Russo, Mayara Laysa de Oliveira Silva, José Augusto Andrade Filho, Vitor Hugo Simon

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Currently, seismic methods and prospecting methods are commonly applied in the oil industry and, according to the information reported every day; oil is a source of non-renewable energy. It is easier to understand why the ownership of areas of oil extraction is coveted by many nations. It is necessary to think about ways that will enable the maximization of oil production. The technique of spectral analysis can be used to analyze the behavior of the variables already defined in oil well the profile. The main objective is to verify the series dependence of variables, and to model the variables using the frequency domain to observe the model residuals.

Keywords: oil, well, spectral analysis, oil extraction

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Authors: Devika Nair, Sean Bellairs, Ken Evans

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Flow and erosion modeling provides an avenue for simulating the fine suspended sediment in surface water systems like streams and creeks. Fine suspended sediment is highly mobile, and many contaminants that may have been released by any sort of catchment disturbance attach themselves to these sediments. Therefore, a knowledge of fine suspended sediment transport is important in assessing contaminant transport. The CAESAR-Lisflood Landform Evolution Model, which includes a hydrologic model (TOPMODEL) and a hydraulic model (Lisflood), is being used to assess the sediment movement in tropical streams on account of a disturbance in the catchment of the creek and to determine the dynamics of sediment quantity in the creek through the years by simulating the model for future years. The accuracy of future simulations depends on the calibration and validation of the model to the past and present events. Calibration and validation of the model involve finding a combination of parameters of the model, which, when applied and simulated, gives model outputs similar to those observed for the real site scenario for corresponding input data. Calibrating the sediment output of the CAESAR-Lisflood model at the catchment level and using it for studying the equilibrium conditions of the landform is an area yet to be explored. Therefore, the aim of the study was to calibrate the CAESAR-Lisflood model and then validate it so that it could be run for future simulations to study how the landform evolves over time. To achieve this, the model was run for a rainfall event with a set of parameters, plus discharge and sediment data for the input point of the catchment, to analyze how similar the model output would behave when compared with the discharge and sediment data for the output point of the catchment. The model parameters were then adjusted until the model closely approximated the real site values of the catchment. It was then validated by running the model for a different set of events and checking that the model gave similar results to the real site values. The outcomes demonstrated that while the model can be calibrated to a greater extent for hydrology (discharge output) throughout the year, the sediment output calibration may be slightly improved by having the ability to change parameters to take into account the seasonal vegetation growth during the start and end of the wet season. This study is important to assess hydrology and sediment movement in seasonal biomes. The understanding of sediment-associated metal dispersion processes in rivers can be used in a practical way to help river basin managers more effectively control and remediate catchments affected by present and historical metal mining.

Keywords: erosion modelling, fine suspended sediments, hydrology, surface water systems

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Authors: Dzmitry M. Kabanau, Vladimir V. Kabanov, Yahor V. Lebiadok, Denis V. Shabrov, Pavel V. Shpak, Gevork T. Mikaelyan, Alexandr P. Bunichev

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This article is deal with the experimental investigations of the laser diode matrixes (LDM) based on the AlGaAs/GaAs heterostructures (lasing wavelength 790-880 nm) to find optimal LDM parameters for active vision systems. In particular, the dependence of LDM radiation pulse power on the pulse duration and LDA active layer heating as well as the LDM radiation divergence are discussed.

Keywords: active vision systems, laser diode matrixes, thermal properties, radiation divergence

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Authors: N. Veerappan

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Seasonal variations of sea grasses and physico-chemical parameters were studied from April 2011 to March 2012. Samples were collected in four different seasons, namely post monsoon (January-March), summer (April-June) premonsoon (July-September) and monsoon (October-December) from the Uppanar estuary. Three species of sea grass biomass were measured during the study period: Halophila ovalis (215.3 g/m2 - 38.5 g/m2), Halophila beccarii (75.2 g/m2 –30.1 g/m2) and Halodule pinifolia (65.4 g/m2 - 26.5 g/m2), respectively. Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA) showed that NO2, NO3 PO4, and SiO4 influenced Halophila ovalis biomass distribution, whereas for Halophila beccarii and Halodule pinifolia, atmospheric temperature, water temperature, salinity, pH and DO proved important.

Keywords: sea grass, species biomass, Uppanar estuary, water quality

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