Search results for: conditional proportional reversed hazard rate model

Authors: Hyeon-Kyo Lim, Sang-Hun Byun

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Risk assessment is carried out in most industrial plants for accident prevention, but there exists insufficient data for statistical decision making. It is commonly said that risk can be expressed as a product of consequence and likelihood of a corresponding hazard factor. Eventually, therefore, risk assessment involves human decision making which cannot be objective per se. This study was carried out to comprehend perceptive characteristics of human beings in industrial plants. Subjects were shown a set of illustrations describing scenes of industrial plants, and were asked to assess the risk of each scene with not only linguistic variables but also numeric scores in the aspect of consequence and likelihood. After that, their responses were formulated as fuzzy membership functions, and compared with those of university students who had no experience of industrial works. The results showed that risk level of industrial workers were lower than those of any other groups, which implied that the workers might generally have a tendency to neglect more hazard factors in their work fields.

Keywords: fuzzy, hazard, linguistic variable, risk assessment

Procedia PDF Downloads 232

Authors: Siphat Lim

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The result of the study revealed that the interaction between money, exchange rate, and price level was mainly derived from the policy-induced by the central bank. Furthermore, the variation of inflation was explained weakly by exchange rate and money supply. In the period of twelfth-month, the variation of inflation which caused by exchange rate and money supply were not more than 1.78 percent and 9.77 percent, respectively.

Keywords: money supply, exchange rate, price level, VAR model

Procedia PDF Downloads 254

Authors: Deisy Becerra, Edwar Perez, Nicolas Rios, Miguel Asuaje

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Progressing Cavity Pump (PCP) is a type of positive displacement pump that is being awarded greater importance as capable artificial lift equipment in the heavy oil field. The most commonly PCP used is driven single lobe pump that consists of a single external helical rotor turning eccentrically inside a double internal helical stator. This type of pump was analyzed by the experimental and Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) approach from the DCAB031 model located in a closed-loop arrangement. Experimental measurements were taken to determine the pressure rise and flow rate with a flow control valve installed at the outlet of the pump. The flowrate handled was measured by a FLOMEC-OM025 oval gear flowmeter. For each flowrate considered, the pump’s rotational speed and power input were controlled using an Invertek Optidrive E3 frequency driver. Once a steady-state operation was attained, pressure rise measurements were taken with a Sper Scientific wide range digital pressure meter. In this study, water and three Newtonian oils of different viscosities were tested at different rotational speeds. The CFD model implementation was developed on Star- CCM+ using an Overset Mesh that includes the relative motion between rotor and stator, which is one of the main contributions of the present work. The simulations are capable of providing detailed information about the pressure and velocity fields inside the device in laminar and unsteady regimens. The simulations have a good agreement with the experimental data due to Mean Squared Error (MSE) in under 21%, and the Grid Convergence Index (GCI) was calculated for the validation of the mesh, obtaining a value of 2.5%. In this case, three different rotational speeds were evaluated (200, 300, 400 rpm), and it is possible to show a directly proportional relationship between the rotational speed of the rotor and the flow rate calculated. The maximum production rates for the different speeds for water were 3.8 GPM, 4.3 GPM, and 6.1 GPM; also, for the oil tested were 1.8 GPM, 2.5 GPM, 3.8 GPM, respectively. Likewise, an inversely proportional relationship between the viscosity of the fluid and pump performance was observed, since the viscous oils showed the lowest pressure increase and the lowest volumetric flow pumped, with a degradation around of 30% of the pressure rise, between performance curves. Finally, the Productivity Index (PI) remained approximately constant for the different speeds evaluated; however, between fluids exist a diminution due to the viscosity.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamic, CFD, Newtonian fluids, overset mesh, PCP pressure rise

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Authors: Reda Abdel-Aziz

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Agricultural activities in Egypt generate annually around 35 million tons of waste. Composting is one of the most promising technologies to turnover waste in a more economical way, for many centuries. Composting has been used as a mean of recycling organic matter back into the soil to improve soil structure and fertility. Field experiments were conducted in two governorates, Giza and Al-Monofia, to find out the effect of compost with different rates of chemical fertilizers on growth and yield of corn (Zea mays L.) during two constitutive seasons of 2012 and 2013. The experiment, laid out in a randomized complete block design (RCBD), was carried out on five farmers’ fields in each governorate. The treatments were: unfertilized control, full dose of NPK (120, 30, and 50 kg/acre, respectively), compost at rate of 20 ton/acre, compost at rate of 10 ton/acre + 25% of chemical fertilizer, compost at rate of 10 ton/acre + 50% of chemical fertilizer and compost at rate of 10 ton/acre + 75% of chemical fertilizer. Results revealed a superiority of the treatment of compost at rate of 10 ton/acre + 50% of NPK that caused significant improvement in growth, yield and nutrient uptakes of corn in the two governorates during the two constitutive seasons. Results showed that agricultural waste could be composted into value added soil amendment to enhance efficiency of chemical fertilizer. Composting of agricultural waste could also reduce the chemical fertilizers potential hazard to the environment.

Keywords: agricultural waste, compost, chemical fertilizers, corn production, environment

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Authors: Pegah Farshadmanesh, Jamshid Mohammadi, Mehdi Modares

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In nearly all earthquakes of the past century that resulted in moderate to significant damage, the occurrence of postearthquake fire ignition (PEFI) has imposed a serious hazard and caused severe damage, especially in urban areas. In order to reduce the loss of life and property caused by post-earthquake fires, there is a crucial need for predictive models to estimate the PEFI risk. The parameters affecting PEFI risk can be categorized as: 1) factors influencing fire ignition in normal (non-earthquake) condition, including floor area, building category, ignitability, type of appliance, and prevention devices, and 2) earthquake related factors contributing to the PEFI risk, including building vulnerability and earthquake characteristics such as intensity, peak ground acceleration, and peak ground velocity. State-of-the-art statistical PEFI risk models are solely based on limited available earthquake data, and therefore they cannot predict the PEFI risk for areas with insufficient earthquake records since such records are needed in estimating the PEFI model parameters. In this paper, the correlation between normal condition ignition risk, peak ground acceleration, and PEFI risk is examined in an effort to offer a means for predicting post-earthquake ignition events. An illustrative example is presented to demonstrate how such correlation can be employed in a seismic area to predict PEFI hazard.

Keywords: fire risk, post-earthquake fire ignition (PEFI), risk management, seismicity

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Authors: A. Amar

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Analysis of the elastic scattering of protons on ¹⁰B nuclei has been done in the framework of the optical model and single folding model at the beam energies up to 17 MeV. We could enhance the optical potential parameters using Esis88 Code, as well as SPI GENOA Code. Linear relationship between volume real potential (V₀) and proton energy (E_p) has been obtained. Also, surface imaginary potential W_D is proportional to the proton energy (E_p) in the range 0.400 and 17 MeV. The radiative reaction ¹⁰B(p,γ)¹¹C has been analyzed using potential model. A comparison between ¹⁰B(p,γ)¹¹C and ⁶Li(p,γ)⁷Be has been made. Good agreement has been found between theoretical and experimental results in the whole range of energy. The radiative resonance reaction ⁷Li(p,γ)⁸Be has been studied.

Keywords: elastic scattering of protons on 10B nuclei, optical potential parameters, potential model, radiative reaction

Procedia PDF Downloads 187

Authors: Basma Yassa

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Evidence on cash transfers’ effectiveness in mitigating macro and idiosyncratic shocks’ impacts has been mixed and is mostly concentrated in Latin America, Sub-Saharan Africa, and South Asia with very limited evidence from the MENA region. Yet conditional cash transfers schemes have been continually used, especially in Egypt, as the main social protection tool in response to the recent socioeconomic crises and macro shocks. We use 2 panel datasets and 1 cross-sectional dataset to estimate the effectiveness of cash transfers as a shock-mitigative mechanism in the Egyptian context. In this paper, the results from the different models (Panel Fixed Effects model and the Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) model) confirm that micro and macro shocks lead to significant decline in several household-level welfare outcomes and that Takaful cash transfers have a significant positive impact in mitigating the negative shock impacts, especially on households’ debt incidence, debt levels, and asset ownership, but not necessarily on food, and non-food expenditure levels. The results indicate large positive significant effects on decreasing household incidence of debt by up to 12.4 percent and lowered the debt size by approximately 18 percent among Takaful beneficiaries compared to non-beneficiaries’. Similar evidence is found on asset ownership levels, as the RDD model shows significant positive effects on total asset ownership and productive asset ownership, but the model failed to detect positive impacts on per capita food and non-food expenditures. Further extensions are still in progress to compare the models’ results with the DID model results when using a nationally representative ELMPS panel data (2018/2024) rounds. Finally, our initial analysis suggests that conditional cash transfers are effective in buffering the negative shock impacts on certain welfare indicators even after successive macro-economic shocks in 2022 and 2023 in the Egyptian Context.

Keywords: cash transfers, fixed effects, household welfare, household debt, micro shocks, regression discontinuity design

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Authors: Orkide Donma, Mustafa M. Donma

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Basal metabolic rate is questioned as a risk factor for weight gain. The relations between basal metabolic rate and body composition have not been cleared yet. The impact of fat mass on basal metabolic rate is also uncertain. Within this context, indices based upon total body mass as well as total body fat mass are available. In this study, the aim is to investigate the potential clinical utility of these indices in the adult population. 287 individuals, aged from 18 to 79 years, were included into the scope of the study. Based upon body mass index values, 10 underweight, 88 normal, 88 overweight, 81 obese, and 20 morbid obese individuals participated. Anthropometric measurements including height (m), and weight (kg) were performed. Body mass index, diagnostic obesity notation model assessment index I, diagnostic obesity notation model assessment index II, basal metabolic rate-to-weight ratio were calculated. Total body fat mass (kg), fat percent (%), basal metabolic rate, metabolic age, visceral adiposity, fat mass of upper as well as lower extremities and trunk, obesity degree were measured by TANITA body composition monitor using bioelectrical impedance analysis technology. Statistical evaluations were performed by statistical package (SPSS) for Windows Version 16.0. Scatterplots of individual measurements for the parameters concerning correlations were drawn. Linear regression lines were displayed. The statistical significance degree was accepted as p < 0.05. The strong correlations between body mass index and diagnostic obesity notation model assessment index I as well as diagnostic obesity notation model assessment index II were obtained (p < 0.001). A much stronger correlation was detected between basal metabolic rate and diagnostic obesity notation model assessment index I in comparison with that calculated for basal metabolic rate and body mass index (p < 0.001). Upon consideration of the associations between basal metabolic rate-to-weight ratio and these three indices, the best association was observed between basal metabolic rate-to-weight and diagnostic obesity notation model assessment index II. In a similar manner, this index was highly correlated with fat percent (p < 0.001). Being independent of the indices, a strong correlation was found between fat percent and basal metabolic rate-to-weight ratio (p < 0.001). Visceral adiposity was much strongly correlated with metabolic age when compared to that with chronological age (p < 0.001). In conclusion, all three indices were associated with metabolic age, but not with chronological age. Diagnostic obesity notation model assessment index II values were highly correlated with body mass index values throughout all ranges starting with underweight going towards morbid obesity. This index is the best in terms of its association with basal metabolic rate-to-weight ratio, which can be interpreted as basal metabolic rate unit.

Keywords: basal metabolic rate, body mass index, children, diagnostic obesity notation model assessment index, obesity

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Authors: Ijaz Ahmad

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Weed competition is one of the major biotic constraints in wheat crop productivity. Avena fatua L. and Silybum marianum (L.) Gaertn. are among the worst weeds of wheat, greatly deteriorating wheat quality subsequently reducing its market value. In this connection, two-year experiments were conducted in 2018 & 2019. Different seeding rate wheat viz; 80, 100, 120 and 140 kg ha-1 and different weeds ratio (A. fatua: S. marianum ) sown at the rate 1:8, 2:7, 3:6, 4:5, 5:4, 6:3, 7:2, 8:1 and 0:0 respectively. The weeds ratio and wheat densities are indirectly proportional. However, the wheat seed at the rate of 140 kg ha-1 has minimal weeds interference. Yield losses were 17.5% at weeds density 1:8 while 7.2% at 8:1. However, in wheat density, the highest percent losses were computed on 80 kg ha-1 while the lowest was recorded on 140 kg ha-1. Since due to the large leaf canopy of S. marianum other species can't sustain their growth. Hence, it has been concluded that S. marianum is the hotspot that causes reduction to the yield-related parameters, followed by A. fatua and the other weeds. Due to the morphological mimicry of A. fatua with wheat crop during the vegetative growth stage, it cannot be easily distinguished. Therefore, managing A. fatua and S. marianum before seed setting is recommended for reducing the future weed problem. Based on current studies, it is suggested that sowing wheat seed at the rate of 140 kg ha-1 is recommended to better compete with all the field weeds.

Keywords: fat content, holly thistle, protein content, weed competition, wheat, wild oat

Procedia PDF Downloads 183

Authors: Ali Heidari

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This paper presents the principles for improving flood mitigation operation in multipurpose dams and maximizing reservoir performance during flood occurrence with a focus on the real-time operation of gated spillways. The criteria of operation include the safety of dams during flood management, minimizing the downstream flood risk by decreasing the flood hazard and fulfilling water supply and other purposes of the dam operation in mid and long terms horizons. The parameters deemed to be important include flood inflow, outlet capacity restrictions, downstream flood inundation damages, economic revenue of dam operation, and environmental and sedimentation restrictions. A simulation model was used to determine the real-time release of the Dez dam located in the Dez rivers in southwest Iran, considering the gate regulation curves for the gated spillway. The results of the simulation model show that there is a possibility to improve the current procedures used in the real-time operation of the dams, particularly using gate regulation curves and early flood forecasting system results. The Dez dam operation data shows that in one of the best flood control records, % 17 of the total active volume and flood control pool of the reservoir have not been used in decreasing the downstream flood hazard despite the availability of a flood forecasting system.

Keywords: dam operation, flood control criteria, Dez dam, Iran

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Authors: V. Srinivasan, S. M. Sriram Nandan

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Today in the modern world the most important problem faced by the mankind is increasing the pollution in a very high rate. It affects the ecosystem of the environment and also aids to increase the greenhouse effect. The exhaust gases from the automobile is the major cause of a pollution. Automobiles have increased to a large number which has increased the pollution of our world to an alarming rate. There are two methods of controlling the pollution namely, pre-pollution control method and post-pollution control method. This paper is based on controlling the emission by post-pollution control method. The ratio of surface area of nanoparticles to the volume of the nanoparticles is inversely proportional to the radius of the nanoparticles. So decreasing the radius, this ratio is leading resulting in an increased rate of reaction and thus the concentration of the pollution is decreased. To achieve this objective, use of cobalt-graphene element is proposed. The proposed method is mainly to decrease the cost of platinum as it is expensive. This has a longer life than the platinum-based catalysts.

Keywords: automobile emissions, catalytic converter, cobalt-graphene, replacement of platinum

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Authors: Larbi Hammadi, N. Boudjenane, N. Benhallou, R. Houjedje, R. Reffis, M. Belhadri

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Many of clays exhibited the thixotropic behavior in which, the apparent viscosity of material decreases with time of shearing at constant shear rate. The structural kinetic model (SKM) was used to characterize the thixotropic behavior of two different kinds of clays used in fabrication of ceramic. Clays selected for analysis represent the fluid and semisolid clays materials. The SKM postulates that the change in the rheological behavior is associated with shear-induced breakdown of the internal structure of the clays. This model for the structure decay with time at constant shear rate assumes nth order kinetics for the decay of the material structure with a rate constant.

Keywords: ceramic, clays, structural kinetic model, thixotropy, viscosity

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Authors: Junfeng Yan, Wenkui Hou

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Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) is a technology to monitor the equipment status and predict impending faults. It is used to predict the potential fault and provide fault information and track trends of system degradation by capturing characteristics signals. So how to detect characteristics signals is very important. The select of test point plays a very important role in detecting characteristics signal. Traditionally, we use dependency model to select the test point containing the most detecting information. But, facing the large complicated system, the dependency model is not built so easily sometimes and the greater trouble is how to calculate the matrix. Rely on this premise, the paper provide a highly effective method to select test point without dependency model. Because signal flow model is a diagnosis model based on failure mode, which focuses on system’s failure mode and the dependency relationship between the test points and faults. In the signal flow model, a fault information can flow from the beginning to the end. According to the signal flow model, we can find out location and structure information of every test point and module. We break the signal flow model up into serial and parallel parts to obtain the final relationship function between the system’s testability or prediction metrics and test points. Further, through the partial derivatives operation, we can obtain every test point’s importance degree in determining the testability metrics, such as undetected rate, false alarm rate, untrusted rate. This contributes to installing the test point according to the real requirement and also provides a solid foundation for the Prognostics and Health Management. According to the real effect of the practical engineering application, the method is very efficient.

Keywords: false alarm rate, importance degree, signal flow model, undetected rate, untrusted rate

Procedia PDF Downloads 357

Authors: Abd El-Aziz Khairy Abd El-Aal, Yuji Yagi, Heba Kamal

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In this study, an integrated multi-channel analysis of Surface Waves (MASW) technique is applied to explore the geotechnical parameters of subsurface layers at the Zafarana wind farm. Moreover, a seismic hazard procedure based on the extended deterministic technique is used to estimate the seismic hazard load for the investigated area. The study area includes many active fault systems along the Gulf of Suez that cause many moderate and large earthquakes. Overall, the seismic activity of the area has recently become better understood following the use of new waveform inversion methods and software to develop accurate focal mechanism solutions for recent recorded earthquakes around the studied area. These earthquakes resulted in major stress-drops in the Eastern desert and the Gulf of Suez area. These findings have helped to reshape the understanding of the seismotectonic environment of the Gulf of Suez area, which is a perplexing tectonic domain. Based on the collected new information and data, this study uses an extended deterministic approach to re-examine the seismic hazard for the Gulf of Suez region, particularly the wind turbine towers at Zafarana Wind Farm and its vicinity. Alternate seismic source and magnitude-frequency relationships were combined with various indigenous attenuation relationships, adapted within a logic tree formulation, to quantify and project the regional exposure on a set of hazard maps. We select two desired exceedance probabilities (10 and 20%) that any of the applied scenarios may exceed the largest median ground acceleration. The ground motion was calculated at 50th, 84th percentile levels.

Keywords: MASW, seismic hazard, wind turbine towers, Zafarana wind farm

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Authors: Y. Galerkin, K. Soldatova, A. Drozdov

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The 6th version of Universal modeling method for centrifugal compressor stage calculation is described. Identification of the new mathematical model was made. As a result of identification the uniform set of empirical coefficients is received. The efficiency definition error is 0,86 % at a design point. The efficiency definition error at five flow rate points (except a point of the maximum flow rate) is 1,22 %. Several variants of the stage with 3D impellers designed by 6th version program and quasi three-dimensional calculation programs were compared by their gas dynamic performances CFD (NUMECA FINE TURBO). Performance comparison demonstrated general principles of design validity and leads to some design recommendations.

Keywords: compressor design, loss model, performance prediction, test data, model stages, flow rate coefficient, work coefficient

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Authors: Dimakatso Machetele, Kowiyou Yessoufou

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Whilst several studies indicated that road accident events might be more complex than thought, we have a limited scientific understanding of this complexity in South Africa. The present project proposes and tests a more comprehensive metamodel that integrates multiple causality relationships among variables previously linked to road accidents. This was done by fitting a structural equation model (SEM) to the data collected from various sources. The study also fitted the GARCH Model (Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) to predict the future of road accidents in the country. The analysis shows that the number of road accidents has been increasing since 1935. The road fatality rate follows a polynomial shape following the equation: y = -0.0114x²+1.2378x-2.2627 (R²=0.76) with y = death rate and x = year. This trend results in an average death rate of 23.14 deaths per 100,000 people. Furthermore, the analysis shows that the number of crashes could be significantly explained by the total number of vehicles (P < 0.001), number of registered vehicles (P < 0.001), number of unregistered vehicles (P = 0.003) and the population of the country (P < 0.001). As opposed to expectation, the number of driver licenses issued and total distance traveled by vehicles do not correlate significantly with the number of crashes (P > 0.05). Furthermore, the analysis reveals that the number of casualties could be linked significantly to the number of registered vehicles (P < 0.001) and total distance traveled by vehicles (P = 0.03). As for the number of fatal crashes, the analysis reveals that the total number of vehicles (P < 0.001), number of registered (P < 0.001) and unregistered vehicles (P < 0.001), the population of the country (P < 0.001) and the total distance traveled by vehicles (P < 0.001) correlate significantly with the number of fatal crashes. However, the number of casualties and again the number of driver licenses do not seem to determine the number of fatal crashes (P > 0.05). Finally, the number of crashes is predicted to be roughly constant overtime at 617,253 accidents for the next 10 years, with the worse scenario suggesting that this number may reach 1 896 667. The number of casualties was also predicted to be roughly constant at 93 531 overtime, although this number may reach 661 531 in the worst-case scenario. However, although the number of fatal crashes may decrease over time, it is forecasted to reach 11 241 fatal crashes within the next 10 years, with the worse scenario estimated at 19 034 within the same period. Finally, the number of fatalities is also predicted to be roughly constant at 14 739 but may also reach 172 784 in the worse scenario. Overall, the present study reveals the complexity of road accidents and allows us to propose several recommendations aimed to reduce the trend of road accidents, casualties, fatal crashes, and death in South Africa.

Keywords: road accidents, South Africa, statistical modelling, trends

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Authors: Zhijie Ma, Qinglin Zhao, Hongning Dai, Huan Zhang

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This paper proposes an APPLE scheme that aims at providing absolute and proportional throughput guarantees, and maximizing system throughput simultaneously for wireless LANs with homogeneous and heterogenous traffic. We formulate our objectives as an optimization problem, present its exact and approximate solutions, and prove the existence and uniqueness of the approximate solution. Simulations validate that APPLE scheme is accurate, and the approximate solution can well achieve the desired objectives already.

Keywords: IEEE 802.11e, throughput guarantee, priority, WLANs

Procedia PDF Downloads 331

Authors: Mustafa M. Bob, Norhan Rahman, Abdalla Elamin, Saud Taher

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The objective of this study was to assess the suitability of Madinah city groundwater for irrigation purposes. Of the twenty three wells that were drilled in different locations in the city for the purposes of this study, twenty wells were sampled for water quality analyses. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) classification of irrigation water that is based on Sodium hazard (SAR) and salinity hazard was used for suitability assessment. In addition, the residual sodium carbonate (RSC) was calculated for all samples and also used for irrigation suitability assessment. Results showed that all groundwater samples are in the acceptable quality range for irrigation based on RSC values. When SAR and salinity hazard were assessed, results showed that while all groundwater samples (except one) fell in the acceptable range of SAR, they were either in the high or very high salinity zone which indicates that care should be taken regarding the type of soil and crops in the study area.

Keywords: irrigation suitability, TDS, salinity, SAR

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Authors: A. Karadeniz, Belgin Kucukomeroglu

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In this study natural gamma radioactivity levels are determined on sands along the coastal regions of Giresun/Turkey. The coast of Giresun about 290 km long in investigated to collect 101 sand samples. Natural and artificial radioactivity concentrations of sand samples were measured by using HPGe gamma spectrometry. The average activity concentrations of 238U, 232Th, 40K and 137Cs on sand samples of Giresun were found to be 10.83±2.92 Bq/kg, 21.28±3.22 Bq/kg, 6.42±1.06 Bq/kg, 230.94±10.67 Bq/kg respectively. The average activity concentrations for these radionuclides were compared with the reported data of other parts of Turkey and other countries. The average absorbed dose rate for Giresun was calculated to be 38.68 nGy/h respectively. This value is significantly lower than the World averaged value of 60 nGy/h. The external annual effective dose rate concentration in Giresun was found to be 0.047 mSv/y respectively. This result is much lower than the recommeded limit of 5 mSv/y. The external hazard dose rate for Giresun weas calculated to be 0.21 respectively. This result is much lower than the recommended limit of 1.0.

Keywords: concentration, radioactivity, Giresun, natural gamma radioactivity

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Authors: C. Recommandé, J. C. Blind, A. Clavel, R. Gourichon, V. Le Gal

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Simulations are developed in this paper with usual DSGE model equations. The model is based on simplified version of Smets-Wouters equations in use at European Central Bank which implies 10 macro-economic variables: consumption, investment, wages, inflation, capital stock, interest rates, production, capital accumulation, labour and credit rate, and allows take into consideration the banking system. Throughout the simulations, this model will be used to evaluate the impact of rate shocks recounting the actions of the European Central Bank during 2008.

Keywords: CC-LM, Central Bank, DSGE, liquidity shock, non-standard intervention

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Authors: Fajana Sola Isaac

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In the last two decades, we have witnessed an increased interest in exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) in developing economies and emerging markets. This is perhaps due to the acknowledged significance of the pattern of exchange rate pass-through as a key instrument in monetary policy design, principally in retort to a shock in exchange rate in literature. This paper analyzed Exchange Rate Pass-Through by A Model of Oil Prices and Asymmetric Exchange Rate Fluctuations in Selected African Countries. The study adopted A Non-Linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag approach using yearly data on Algeria, Burundi, Nigeria and South Africa from 1986 to 2022. The paper found asymmetry in exchange rate pass-through in net oil-importing and net oil-exporting countries in the short run during the period under review. An ERPT exhibited a complete pass-through in the short run in the case of net oil-importing countries but an incomplete pass-through in the case of the net oil-exporting countries that were examined. An extended result revealed a significant impact of oil price shock on exchange rate pass-through to domestic price in the long run only for net oil importing countries. The Wald restriction test also confirms the evidence of asymmetric with the role of oil price acting as an accelerator to exchange rate pass-through to domestic price in the countries examined. The study found the outcome to be very useful for gaining expansive knowledge on the external shock impact on ERPT and could be of critical value for national monetary policy decisions on inflation targeting, especially for countries examined and other developing net oil importers and exporters.

Keywords: pass through, exchange rate, ARDL, monetary policy

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Authors: Tauhidur Rahman, Kasturi Bhuyan

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In the present paper, Ground Response Analysis at the Rukni irrigation project has been thoroughly investigated. Surface level seismic hazard is mainly used by the practical Engineers for designing the important structures. Surface level seismic hazard can be obtained accounting the soil factor. Structures on soft soil will show more ground shaking than the structure located on a hard soil. The Surface level ground motion depends on the type of soil. Density and shear wave velocity is different for different types of soil. The intensity of the soil amplification depends on the density and shear wave velocity of the soil. Rukni irrigation project is located in the North Eastern region of India, near the Dauki fault (550 Km length) which has already produced earthquakes of magnitude (Mw= 8.5) in the past. There is a probability of a similar type of earthquake occuring in the future. There are several faults also located around the project site. There are 765 recorded strong ground motion time histories available for the region. These data are used to determine the soil amplification factor by incorporation of the engineering properties of soil. With this in view, three of soil bore holes have been studied at the project site up to a depth of 30 m. It has been observed that in Soil bore hole 1, the shear wave velocity vary from 99.44 m/s to 239.28 m/s. For Soil Bore Hole No 2 and 3, shear wave velocity vary from 93.24 m/s to 241.39 m/s and 93.24m/s to 243.01 m/s. In the present work, surface level seismic hazard at the project site has been calculated based on the Probabilistic seismic hazard approach accounting the soil factor.

Keywords: Ground Response Analysis, shear wave velocity, soil amplification, surface level seismic hazard

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Authors: Alisawi Alaa T., Collins P. E. F.

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The analysis and evaluation of slope stability and landslide hazards are landslide hazards are critically important in civil engineering projects and broader considerations of safety. The level of slope stability risk should be identified due to its significant and direct financial and safety effects. Slope stability hazard analysis is performed considering static and/or dynamic loading circumstances. To reduce and/or prevent the failure hazard caused by landslides, a sophisticated and practical hazard analysis method using advanced constitutive modeling should be developed and linked to an effective solution that corresponds to the specific type of slope stability and landslides failure risk. Previous studies on slope stability analysis methods identify the failure mechanism and its corresponding solution. The commonly used approaches include used approaches include limit equilibrium methods, empirical approaches for rock slopes (e.g., slope mass rating and Q-slope), finite element or finite difference methods, and district element codes. This study presents an overview and evaluation of these analysis techniques. Contemporary source materials are used to examine these various methods on the basis of hypotheses, the factor of safety estimation, soil types, load conditions, and analysis conditions and limitations. Limit equilibrium methods play a key role in assessing the level of slope stability hazard. The slope stability safety level can be defined by identifying the equilibrium of the shear stress and shear strength. The slope is considered stable when the movement resistance forces are greater than those that drive the movement with a factor of safety (ratio of the resistance of the resistance of the driving forces) that is greater than 1.00. However, popular and practical methods, including limit equilibrium approaches, are not effective when the slope experiences complex failure mechanisms, such as progressive failure, liquefaction, internal deformation, or creep. The present study represents the first episode of an ongoing project that involves the identification of the types of landslides hazards, assessment of the level of slope stability hazard, development of a sophisticated and practical hazard analysis method, linkage of the failure type of specific landslides conditions to the appropriate solution and application of an advanced computational method for mapping the slope stability properties in the United Kingdom, and elsewhere through geographical information system (GIS) and inverse distance weighted spatial interpolation(IDW) technique. This study investigates and assesses the different assesses the different analysis and solution techniques to enhance the knowledge on the mechanism of slope stability and landslides hazard analysis and determine the available solutions for each potential landslide failure risk.

Keywords: slope stability, finite element analysis, hazard analysis, landslides hazard

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Authors: J. K. Karapetyan

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In this paper seismological-statistical analysis of actual instrumental data on the main tremor of the Great Japan earthquake 11.03.2011 is implemented for finding out the dependence between maximal values of peak ground accelerations (PGA) and epicentric distances. A number of peculiarities of manifestation of accelerations' maximum values at the interval of long epicentric distances are revealed which do not correspond with current scales of seismic intensity.

Keywords: earthquakes, instrumental records, seismic hazard, Japan

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Authors: Wei-Neng Wang, Jhy-Yuan Shieh, Jhy-Hwa Chen, Juin-Jen Chang

Abstract:

This paper incorporate tax evasion into a one-sector real business cycle (RBC) model to explores the quantitative interrelations between income tax rate and equilibrium (in)determinacy, and income tax rate is endogenously determined in order to balance the government budget. We find that the level of the effective income tax rate is key factor for equilibrium (in)determinacy, instead of the level of income tax rate in a tax evasion economy. Under an economy with tax evasion, the higher income tax rate is not sufficiently to lead to equilibrium indeterminate, it must combine with a necessary condition which is the lower fraction of tax evasion and that can result in agents' optimistic expectations to become self-fulfilling and sunspot fluctuation more likely to occur. On the other hand, an economy with tax evasion can see its macroeconomy become more stabilize, and a higher fraction of income tax evasion may has a stronger stabilizing effect.

Keywords: tax evasion, balanced-budget rule, equlibirium (in)determinacy, effective income tax rate

Procedia PDF Downloads 36

Authors: Angrita Denziana, Haninun, Hepiana Patmarina, Ferdinan Fatah

Abstract:

The aims of the study are to determine the effect of the company's financial performance with Return on Asset (ROA) and Return on Equity (ROE) indicators. The macroeconomic factors with the indicators of Indonesia interest rate (SBI) and exchange rate on stock returns of non-financial companies listed in IDX. The results of this study indicate that the variable of ROA has negative effect on stock returns, ROE has a positive effect on stock returns, and the variable interest rate and exchange rate of SBI has positive effect on stock returns. From the analysis data by using regression model, independent variables ROA, ROE, SBI interest rate and the exchange rate very significant (p value < 0.01). Thus, all the above variable can be used as the basis for investment decision making for investment in Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) mainly for shares in the non- financial companies.

Keywords: ROA, ROE, interest rate, exchange rate, stock return

Procedia PDF Downloads 410

Authors: Kasirga Yildirak, Ismail Gur

Abstract:

We propose a model to measure hail risk of an Agricultural Insurance portfolio. Hail is one of the major catastrophic event that causes big amount of loss to an insurer. Moreover, it is very hard to predict due to its strange atmospheric characteristics. We make use of parcel based claims data on apricot damage collected by the Turkish Agricultural Insurance Pool (TARSIM). As our ultimate aim is to compute the loadings assigned to specific parcels, we build a portfolio risk model that makes use of PD and the severity of the exposures. PD is computed by Spherical-Linear and Circular –Linear regression models as the data carries coordinate information and seasonality. Severity is mapped into integer brackets so that Probability Generation Function could be employed. Individual regressions are run on each clusters estimated on different criteria. Loss distribution is constructed by Panjer Recursion technique. We also show that one risk-one crop model can easily be extended to the multi risk–multi crop model by assuming conditional independency.

Keywords: hail insurance, spherical regression, circular regression, spherical clustering

Procedia PDF Downloads 232

Authors: Obi Olor, Asu-Nnandi Judith, Ishiekwen Bridget

Abstract:

Regardless of the settled perception that the substitution of saturated fats for starches or unsaturated fats builds low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol in people, in animal models, the relationship of saturated fat intake to the hazard of atherosclerotic cardiovascular ailment in people remains controversial. Clinical trials that supplanted immersed fat with polyunsaturated fat have, for the most part, demonstrated a lessening in CVD occasions, albeit a few reviews demonstrated no impacts. An autonomous relationship of soaked fat admission with CVD chance has not reliably appeared in planned epidemiologic reviews, albeit some have confirmed an expanded hazard in youthful people and in ladies. Substitution of soaked fat by polyunsaturated or monounsaturated fat reduces LDL and HDL cholesterol. Given the differing qualities of these cardio-protective eating methodologies and their healthy parts, one of the needs in research should be to attempt more near trials. These trials decide persistent worthiness, consequences for surrogate markers of hazard, and which at last affects morbidity and mortality.

Keywords: cardiovascular disease, dietary saturated fat, saturated fat, unsaturated fat

Procedia PDF Downloads 12

Authors: Lara Stroh, Nikola Horová, Robert Stárek, Ittoop V. Puthoor, Michal Mičuda, Miloslav Dušek, Erika Andersson

Abstract:

Oblivious transfer (OT) is an important cryptographic primitive. Any multi-party computation can be realised with OT as a building block. XOR oblivious transfer (XOT) is a variant where the sender Alice has two bits, and a receiver, Bob, obtains either the first bit, the second bit, or their XOR. Bob should not learn anything more than this, and Alice should not learn what Bob has learned. Perfect quantum OT with information-theoretic security is known to be impossible. We determine the smallest possible cheating probabilities for unrestricted dishonest parties in non-interactive quantum XOT protocols using symmetric pure states and present an optimal protocol which outperforms classical protocols. We also "reverse" this protocol so that Bob becomes the sender of a quantum state and Alice the receiver who measures it while still implementing oblivious transfer from Alice to Bob. Cheating probabilities for both parties stay the same as for the unreversed protocol. We optically implemented both the unreversed and the reversed protocols and cheating strategies, noting that the reversed protocol is easier to implement.

Keywords: oblivious transfer, quantum protocol, cryptography, XOR

Procedia PDF Downloads 91

Authors: A. Amar

Abstract:

A new model, namely the crystal model, has been modified to calculate the radius and density distribution of light nuclei up to ⁸Be. The crystal model has been modified according to solid-state physics, which uses the analogy between nucleon distribution and atoms distribution in the crystal. The model has analytical analysis to calculate the radius where the density distribution of light nuclei has obtained from analogy of crystal lattice. The distribution of nucleons over crystal has been discussed in a general form. The equation that has been used to calculate binding energy was taken from the solid-state model of repulsive and attractive force. The numbers of the protons were taken to control repulsive force, where the atomic number was responsible for the attractive force. The parameter has been calculated from the crystal model was found to be proportional to the radius of the nucleus. The density distribution of light nuclei was taken as a summation of two clusters distribution as in ⁶Li=alpha+deuteron configuration. A test has been done on the data obtained for radius and density distribution using double folding for d+⁶,⁷Li with M3Y nucleon-nucleon interaction. Good agreement has been obtained for both the radius and density distribution of light nuclei. The model failed to calculate the radius of ⁹Be, so modifications should be done to overcome discrepancy.

Keywords: nuclear physics, nuclear lattice, study nucleus as crystal, light nuclei till to ⁸Be

Procedia PDF Downloads 152