Search results for: the soil variables

Authors: Remus Pravalie, Georgeta Bandoc

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Forests are crucial for humanity and biodiversity, through the various ecosystem services and functions they provide all over the world. Forest ecosystems are vital in Romania as well, through their various benefits, known as provisioning (food, wood, or fresh water), regulating (water purification, soil protection, carbon sequestration or control of climate change, floods, and other hazards), cultural (aesthetic, spiritual, inspirational, recreational or educational benefits) and supporting (primary production, nutrient cycling, and soil formation processes, with direct or indirect importance for human well-being) ecosystem services. These ecological benefits are of great importance in Romania, especially given the fact that forests cover extensive areas countrywide, i.e. ~6.5 million ha or ~27.5% of the national territory. However, the diversity and functionality of these ecosystem services fundamentally depend on certain key attributes of forests, such as biomass, which has so far not been studied nationally in terms of potential changes due to climate change and other driving forces. This study investigates, for the first time, changes in forest biomass in Romania in recent decades, based on a high volume of satellite data (Landsat images at high spatial resolutions), downloaded from the Google Earth Engine platform and processed (using specialized software and methods) across Romanian forestland boundaries from 1987 to 2018. A complex climate database was also investigated across Romanian forests over the same 32-year period, in order to detect potential similarities and statistical relationships between the dynamics of biomass and climate data. The results obtained indicated considerable changes in forest biomass in Romania in recent decades, largely triggered by the climate change that affected the country after 1987. Findings on the complex pattern of recent forest changes in Romania, which will be presented in detail in this study, can be useful to national policymakers in the fields of forestry, climate, and sustainable development.

Keywords: forests, biomass, climate change, trends, romania

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Authors: Amar F. Siddique

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The Guwahati city is one of the fastest growing cities of the north-eastern region of India, situated on the South Bank of the Brahmaputra River falls in the highest seismic zone level V. The city has witnessed many high magnitude earthquakes in the past decades. The Assam earthquake occurred on August 15, 1950, of moment magnitude 8.7 epicentered near Rima, Tibet was one of the major earthquakes which caused a serious structural damage and widespread soil liquefaction in and around the region. Hence the study of ground motion characteristics of Guwahati city is very essential. In this present work 1D equivalent linear ground response analysis (GRA) has been adopted using Deep soil software. The analysis has been done for two typical sites namely, Panbazar and Azara comprising total four boreholes location in Guwahati city of India. GRA of the sites is carried out by using an input motion recorded at Nongpoh station (recorded PGA 0.048g) and Nongstoin station (recorded PGA 0.047g) of 1997 Indo-Burma earthquake. In comparison to motion recorded at Nongpoh, different amplifications of bedrock peak ground acceleration (PGA) are obtained for all the boreholes by the motion recorded at Nongstoin station; although, the Fourier amplitude ratios (FAR) and fundamental frequencies remain almost same. The difference in recorded duration and frequency content of the two motions mainly influence the amplification of motions thus getting different surface PGA and amplification factor keeping a constant bedrock PGA. From the results of response spectra, it is found that at the period of less than 0.2 sec the ground motion recorded at Nongpoh station will give a high spectral acceleration (SA) on the structures than at Nongstoin station. Again for a period greater than 0.2 sec the ground motion recorded at Nongstoin station will give a high SA on the structures than at Nongpoh station.

Keywords: fourier amplitude ratio, ground response analysis, peak ground acceleration, spectral acceleration

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Authors: Joseph Omeiza Alao

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The wobbly state of waste management and the high level of environmental irresponsibility is a threat to environmental security, which invariably endangered public health, regional groundwater systems and atmospheric condition. The dumping of waste materials in water bodies and gutters and the frequent burning of waste materials heaped at dumpsites as well depict the highest level of environmental indiscipline. These unruly human factors have compelled this study to apply four different techniques for environmental impact assessment and the possible public health risks of poor waste management in Nigeria. The techniques include a geophysical survey (resistivity data acquisition), dispatched questionnaire surveys, physiochemical water analysis and a physical survey of several dumpsites. While the resistivity data indicates high-level dumpsite leachate invading the ground soil down to the water table, the physiochemical water analysis depicts high content of BOD (401 – 711) mg/l, COD (731 – 1312) mg/l, TDS (419 – 1871) mg/l and heavy metals (0.014 – 1.971) mg/l present in the regional groundwater systems, which have altered the chemistry of the regional groundwater. The resistivity data shows that the overburdened soil layer overlaying the regional groundwater systems was very low (4.5 Ωm – 151 Ωm) as against the existing data (180 Ωm – 3500 Ωm). However, the physical surveys and the dispatched questionnaire surveys explore the depth of environmental irresponsibility among the citizen. While the imprints of gross environmental indiscipline may be absolutely irreversible, adequate knowledge of the environmental implications of careless waste disposal. After a critical examination of the current waste management strategies in Nigeria, the study suggests a future direction for environmental security and sustainability. Several influential regional factors, such as geology, climatic conditions, and hydrology, were also discussed.

Keywords: groundwater, environmental indiscipline, waste management, water analysis, leachate plumes, public health

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Authors: F. S. Al-Anzi, M. Sarfraz, A. Elmi, A. R. Khan

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Researchers are responding to the environmental challenges of Kuwait in localized, innovative, effective and economic ways. One of the vital and significant examples of the natural challenges is lack or water and desertification. In this research, the project team focuses on redesigning a prototype, using Value Engineering Methodology, which would provide similar functionalities to the well-known technology of Waterboxx kits while reducing the capital and operational costs and simplifying the process of manufacturing and usability by regular farmers. The design employs used tires and recycled plastic sheets as raw materials. Hence, this approach is going to help not just fighting desertification but also helping in getting rid of ever growing huge tire dumpsters in Kuwait, as well as helping in avoiding hazards of tire fires yielding in a safer and friendlier environment. Several alternatives for implementing the prototype have been considered. The best alternative in terms of value has been selected after thorough Function Analysis System Technique (FAST) exercise has been developed. A prototype has been fabricated and tested in a controlled simulated lab environment that is being followed by real environment field testing. Water and soil analysis conducted on the site of the experiment to cross compare between the composition of the soil before and after the experiment to insure that the prototype being tested is actually going to be environment safe. Experimentation shows that the design was equally as effective as, and may exceed, the original design with significant savings in cost. An estimated total cost reduction using the VE approach of 43.84% over the original design. This cost reduction does not consider the intangible costs of environmental issue of waste recycling which many further intensify the total savings of using the alternative VE design. This case study shows that Value Engineering Methodology can be an important tool in innovating new designs for reducing costs.

Keywords: desertification, functional analysis, scrap tires, value engineering, waste recycling, water irrigation rationing

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Authors: Thayalan Nall, Harry Poulos

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Piling is the most widely used foundation method for heavy structures in poor soil conditions. The geotechnical engineer can choose among a variety of piling methods, but in most cases, driving piles by impact hammer is the most cost-effective alternative. Under unfavourable conditions, driving piles can cause environmental problems, such as noise, ground movements and vibrations, with the risk of ground disturbance leading to potential damage to proposed structures. In one of the project sites in which the authors were involved, three offshore container terminals, namely CT1, CT2 and CT3, were constructed over thick compressible marine mud. The seabed was around 6m deep and the soft clay thickness within the project site varied between 9m and 20m. CT2 and CT3 were connected together and rectangular in shape and were 2600mx800m in size. CT1 was 400m x 800m in size and was located on south opposite of CT2 towards its eastern end. CT1 was constructed first and due to time and environmental limitations, it was supported on a “forest” of large diameter driven piles. CT2 and CT3 are now under construction and are being carried out using a traditional dredging and reclamation approach with ground improvement by surcharging with vertical drains. A few months after the installation of the CT1 piles, a 2600m long sand bund to 2m above mean sea level was constructed along the southern perimeter of CT2 and CT3 to contain the dredged mud that was expected to be pumped. The sand bund was constructed by sand spraying and pumping using a dredging vessel. About 2000m length of the sand bund in the west section was constructed without any major stability issues or any noticeable distress. However, as the sand bund approached the section parallel to CT1, it underwent a series of deep seated failures leading the displaced soft clay materials to heave above the standing water level. The crest of the sand bund was about 100m away from the last row of piles. There were no plausible geological reasons to conclude that the marine mud only across the CT1 region was weaker than over the rest of the site. Hence it was suspected that the pile driving by impact hammer may have caused ground movements and vibrations, leading to generation of excess pore pressures and cyclic softening of the marine mud. This paper investigates the probable cause of failure by reviewing: (1) All ground investigation data within the region; (2) Soil displacement caused by pile driving, using theories similar to spherical cavity expansion; (3) Transfer of stresses and vibrations through the entire system, including vibrations transmitted from the hammer to the pile, and the dynamic properties of the soil; and (4) Generation of excess pore pressure due to ground vibration and resulting cyclic softening. The evidence suggests that the problems encountered at the site were primarily caused by the “side effects” of the pile driving operations.

Keywords: pile driving, ground vibration, excess pore pressure, cyclic softening

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Authors: Alireza Barari, Maryam Firoozi, Maryam Ebrahimzadeh, Romina Roohan Ardeshiri, Maryam Kamarloeei

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Background: The The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of six-week aerobic training and taxol consumption on interleukin 8 and Plasminogen Activator Inhibitor-1 (PAI-1) in mice with cervical cancer. Material and method: In this experimental study, 40 female C57 mice, eight weeks old, were randomly divided into 4 groups: cancer, cancer-taxol complement, cancer-training and cancer-training - taxol complement with 10 mice in each group. The implantation of cancerous tumors was performed under the skin of the upper pelvis. The training group completed the endurance training protocol, which included 3 sessions per week, 50 minutes per session, at a speed of 14-18 m/s for six weeks. A dose of 60 mg/ kg/day, a pure extract of Taxol was injected peritoneal Data were analyzed by t-test, One-way ANOVA and post hoc Bonferron's at the significant level P<0. 05. Results: The results showed that there was a significant difference between mean values of interleukin-8 (P < 0.05, F = 12.25) and the plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 (P < 0.05, P=0.10737) in four groups. A significance level of less than 0.05 in Tukey test for both variables also showed a significant difference between the "control" group and the complementary "exercise" group. Namely, six weeks of aerobic training, along with taxol, have a significant effect on the level of plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 and interleukin-8 mice with cervical cancer. Conclusion: Considering the effect of training on these variables, this type of exercise can be used as a complementary therapeutic approach along with other therapies for cervical cancer.

Keywords: cervical cancer, taxol, endurance training, interleukin 8, plasminogen activator inhibitor-1

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Authors: B. El Fadil, R. Najar

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STEM education is promoted by many scholars and curricula around the world, but it is not yet well established in the province of Quebec in Canada. In addition, effective instructional STEM activities and design methods are required to ensure that students and teachers' needs are being met. One potential method is the Engineering Design Process (EDP), a methodology that emphasizes the importance of creativity and collaboration in problem-solving strategies. This article reports on a case study that focused on using the EDP to develop instructional materials by means of making a technological artifact to teach mathematical variables and functions at the secondary level. The five iterative stages of the EDP (design, make, test, infer, and iterate) were integrated into the development of the course materials. Data was collected from different sources: pre- and post-questionnaires, as well as a working document dealing with pupils' understanding based on designing, making, testing, and simulating. Twenty-four grade seven (13 years old) students in Northern Quebec participated in the study. The findings of this study indicate that STEM activities have a positive impact not only on students' engagement in classroom activities but also on learning new mathematical concepts. Furthermore, STEM-focused activities have a significant effect on problem-solving skills development in an interdisciplinary approach. Based on the study's results, we can conclude, inter alia, that teachers should integrate STEM activities into their teaching practices to increase learning outcomes and attach more importance to STEM-focused activities to develop students' reflective thinking and hands-on skills.

Keywords: engineering design process, motivation, stem, integration, variables, functions

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Authors: Muhammad Afief Maruf

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Kacapuri foundation is the traditional shallow foundation of building which has been used since long by traditional communities in Borneo, Indonesia. Kacapuri foundation is a foundation that uses a combination of ironwood (eusideroxylon zwageri) as a column and truss and softwood (Melaleuca leucadendra syn. M. leucadendron) as a raft. In today's modern era, ironwood happened to be a rare item, and it is protected by the Indonesian government. This condition then triggers the idea to maintain the shape of the traditional foundation by modifying the material. The suggestion is replacing the ironwood column with reinforced concrete column. In addition, the number of stem softwood is added to sustain the burden of replacing the column material. Although this modified form of Kacapuri foundation is currently still not been tested in applications in society, some research on the modified Kacapuri foundation has been conducted by some researchers and government unit. This paper will try to give an overview of the theoretical foundation bearing capacity Kacapuri modifications applied to the soft alluvial soil located in Borneo, Indonesia, where the original form of Kacapuri is implemented this whole time. The foundation is modeled buried depth in 2m below the ground surface and also below the ground water level. The calculation of the theoretical bearing capacity and then is calculated based on the bearing capacity equation suggested Skempton, Terzaghi and Ohsuki using the data of soft alluvial soil in Borneo. The result will then compared with the bearing capacity of the Kacapuri foundation original design from some previous research. The results show that the ultimate bearing capacity of the Modified Kacapuri foundation using Skempton equation amounted to 329,26 kN, Terzaghi for 456,804kN, and according Ohsaki amounted to 491,972 kN. The ultimate bearing capacity of the original Kacapuri foundation model based on Skempton equation is 18,23 kN. This result shows that the modification added the ultimate bearing capacity of the foundation, although the replacement of ironwood to reinforced concrete will also add some dead load to the total load itself.

Keywords: bearing capacity, Kacapuri, modified foundation, shallow foundation

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Authors: R. Ziaie Moayed, S. Taghvamanesh

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So far several methods by different researchers have been developed in order to calculate the bearing capacity factors of foundations and retaining walls. In this paper, the bearing capacity factor Ny (shape factor) for different types of foundation have been investigated. The formula for bearing capacity on c–φ–γ soil can still be expressed by Terzaghi’s equation except that the bearing capacity factor Ny depends on the surcharge ratio, and friction angle φ. Many empirical definitions have been used for measurement of the bearing capacity factors N

Keywords: bearing capacity, bearing capacity factor Nγ, irregular foundations, shape factor

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Authors: Aris R. Terzopoulos, Georgia Z. Niolaki, Lynne G. Duncan, Mark A. J. Wilson, Antonios Kyparissiadis, Jackie Masterson

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As word databases for bilingual children are not available, researchers, educators and textbook writers must rely on monolingual databases. The aim of this study is thus to develop a bilingual word database, BiLex-kids, an online open access developmental word database for 5-13 year old bilingual children who learn Greek as a second language and have English as their dominant one. BiLex-kids is compiled from 120 Greek textbooks used in Greek-English bilingual education in the UK, USA and Australia, and provides word translations in the two languages, pronunciations in Greek, and psycholinguistic variables (e.g. Zipf, Frequency per million, Dispersion, Contextual Diversity, Neighbourhood size). After clearing the textbooks of non-relevant items (e.g. punctuation), algorithms were applied to extract the psycholinguistic indices for all words. As well as one total lexicon, the database produces values for all ages (one lexicon for each age) and for three age bands (one lexicon per age band: 5-8, 9-11, 12-13 years). BiLex-kids provides researchers with accurate figures for a wide range of psycholinguistic variables, making it a useful and reliable research tool for selecting stimuli to examine lexical processing among bilingual children. In addition, it offers children the opportunity to study word spelling, learn translations and listen to pronunciations in their second language. It further benefits educators in selecting age-appropriate words for teaching reading and spelling, while special educational needs teachers will have a resource to control the content of word lists when designing interventions for bilinguals with literacy difficulties.

Keywords: bilingual children, psycholinguistics, vocabulary development, word databases

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Authors: Charles Ruffner, Michael Manton, Gintautas Kibirkstis, Gediminas Brazaitas, Vitas Marozas, Ekaterine Makrickiene, Rutile Pukiene, Per Angelstam

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In dynamic boreal forests, fire is an important natural disturbance, which drives regeneration and mortality of living and dead trees, and thus successional trajectories. However, current forest management practices focusing on wood production only have effectively eliminated fire as a stand-level disturbance. While this is generally well studied across much of Europe, in Lithuania, little is known about the historic fire regime and the role fire plays as a management tool towards the sustainable management of future landscapes. Focusing on Scots pine forests, we explore; i) the relevance of fire disturbance regimes on forestlands of Lithuania; ii) fire occurrence in the Dzukija landscape for dry upland and peatland forest sites, and iii) correlate tree-ring data with climate variables to ascertain climatic influences on growth and fire occurrence. We sampled and cross-dated 132 Scots pine samples with fire scars from 4 dry pine forest stands and 4 peatland forest stands, respectively. The fire history of each sample was analyzed using standard dendrochronological methods and presented in FHAES format. Analyses of soil moisture and nutrient conditions revealed a strong probability of finding forests that have a high fire frequency in Scots pine forests (59%), which cover 34.5% of Lithuania’s current forestland. The fire history analysis revealed 455 fire scars and 213 fire events during the period 1742-2019. Within the Dzukija landscape, the mean fire interval was 4.3 years for the dry Scots pine forest and 8.7 years for the peatland Scots pine forest. However, our comparison of fire frequency before and after 1950 shows a marked decrease in mean fire interval. Our data suggest that hemi-boreal forest landscapes of Lithuania provide strong evidence that fire, both human and lightning-ignited fires, has been and should be a natural phenomenon and that the examination of biological archives can be used to guide sustainable forest management into the future. Currently, fire use is prohibited by law as a tool for forest management in Lithuania. We recommend introducing trials that use low-intensity prescribed burning of Scots pine stands as a regeneration tool towards mimicking natural forest disturbance regimes.

Keywords: biodiversity conservation, cultural burning, dendrochronology, forest dynamics, forest management, succession

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Authors: Hamideh Nouri, Sattar Chavoshi Borujeni

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Grey infrastructure is an unavoidable part of urbanisation that is threatening the local microclimates. Sustainable urbanisation requires more green infrastructure in cities such as green roofs to minimise urbanisation impacts. The environmental, social and economic benefits of green roofs are widely deliberated. However, there is still a lack of assessment of the water management for green roofs. This paper aimed to assess the irrigation management of green roofs in a semi-arid region where blue water scarcity is one of the primary challenges in urban water management. To determine the appropriate water source and growing media for green roofs, an experiment was established at the University of South Australia, Australia. This study compared the performance of two growing media and three water sources on the drainage quality, medium weight and survival rate of potted Tussock grass (Poa labillardieral), an endemic plant to Australia and recommended for green roofs. Three irrigation sources were tap water, mixed of wastewater-stormwater, and rainwater. The growing media were natural sandy loam soil and Scoria - one of the most used commercial growing media for green roofs. The drainage quality of these media was tested by analysing leachate samples. Medium weight was measured before and after watering, and all pots were monitored for their survival rates. Results showed that although plant growing development was significantly higher in Scoria, the survival rate was lower. For all three water sources, EC and pH of the leachate were significantly lower from Scoria than the sandy loam soil. However, the mixed of wastewater-stormwater had the highest EC, and rainwater had the lowest EC. Results did not present a significant difference between pH of different water resources in the same media. Our experimental results found the scoria and rainwater as the best sources of medium and water for green roofs.

Keywords: green smart cities, urban water, green roofs, green walls, wastewater, stormwater

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Authors: Lovemore Motsi

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The rapid pace of technological innovation, along with a global fascination with the internet, continues to result in a dominating call to integrate internet technologies in institutions of learning. However, the pressing question remains – how can online in-service training for teachers, support quality and success in professional development programmers. The aim of this study was to examine an integrated model that extended the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT) with additional constructs – including attitude and behaviour intention – adopted from the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) to answer the question. Data was collected from secondary school teachers at 10 selected schools in the Tshwane South district by means of the Statistical Package for Social Scientists (SPSS v 23.0), and the collected data was analysed quantitatively. The findings are congruent with model testing under conditions of volitional usage behaviour. In this regard, the role of facilitating condition variables is insignificant as a determinant of usage behaviour. Social norm variables also proved to be a weak determinant of behavioural intentions. Findings demonstrate that effort expectancy is the key determinant of online INSET usage. Based on these findings, the variable social influence and facilitating conditions are important factors in ensuring the acceptance of online INSET among teachers in selected secondary schools in the Tshwane South district.

Keywords: unified theory of acceptance and use of technology (UTAUT), teacher professional development, secondary schools, online INSET

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Authors: Taurai T. Chikotie, Bruce W. Watson

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The manifestation of ‘new’ infectious diseases and the re-emergence of ‘old’ infectious diseases now present global problems and Southern Africa has not been spared from such calamity. Although having an organized public health system, countries in this region have failed to leverage on the proliferation in use of Information and Communication Technologies to promote effective disease surveillance. Objective: The objective of this study was to critically review and analyse the crucial variables to consider in the development and implementation of electronic disease surveillance systems in public health within the context of Southern Africa. Methodology: A critical review of literature published in English using, Google Scholar, EBSCOHOST, Science Direct, databases from the Centre for Disease Control (CDC and articles from the World Health Organisation (WHO) was undertaken. Manual reference and grey literature searches were also conducted. Results: Little has been done towards harnessing the potential of information technologies towards disease surveillance and this has been due to several challenges that include, lack of funding, lack of health informatics experts, poor supporting infrastructure, an unstable socio-political and socio-economic ecosystem in the region and archaic policies towards integration of information technologies in public health governance. Conclusion: The Southern African region stands to achieve better health outcomes if they adopt the use of e-disease surveillance systems in public health. However, the dynamics and complexities of the socio-economic, socio-political and technical variables would need addressing to ensure the successful development and implementation of e-disease surveillance systems in the region.

Keywords: critical review, disease surveillance, public health informatics, Southern Africa

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Authors: Yen Chia-Ju, Cheng Ding-Ruei

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This study took case office building as subject and explored the responsive work order repair request of facilities and equipment in offices and public areas by gray theory, with the purpose of providing for future related office building owners, executive managers, property management companies, mechanical and electrical companies as reference for deciding and assessing forecast model. Important conclusions of this study are summarized as follows according to the study findings: 1. Grey Relational Analysis discusses the importance of facilities repair number of six categories, namely, power systems, building systems, water systems, air conditioning systems, fire systems and manpower dispatch in order. In terms of facilities maintenance importance are power systems, building systems, water systems, air conditioning systems, manpower dispatch and fire systems in order. 2. GM (1,N) and regression method took maintenance hours as dependent variables and repair number, leased area and tenants number as independent variables and conducted single month forecast based on 12 data from January to December 2011. The mean absolute error and average accuracy of GM (1,N) from verification results were 6.41% and 93.59%; the mean absolute error and average accuracy of regression model were 4.66% and 95.34%, indicating that they have highly accurate forecast capability.

Keywords: rey theory, forecast model, Taipei 101, office buildings, property management, facilities, equipment

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Authors: A. A. Adebayo, O. Osibanjo

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Informal electronic waste (e-waste) processing is a crude method of recycling, which is on the increase in Nigeria. The release of hazardous substances such as heavy metals (HMs) into the environment during informal e-waste processing has been a major concern. However, there is insufficient information on environmental contamination from e-waste recycling, associated ecological risk in Alaba International Market, a major electronic market in Lagos, Nigeria. The aims of this study were to determine the levels of HMs in soil, resulting from the e-waste recycling; and also assess associated ecological risks in Alaba international market. Samples of soils (334) were randomly collected seasonally for three years from fourteen selected e-waste activity points and two control sites. The samples were digested using standard methods and HMs analysed by inductive coupled plasma optical emission. Ecological risk was estimated using Ecological Risk index (ER), Potential Ecological Risk index (RI), Index of geoaccumulation (Igeo), Contamination factor (Cf) and degree of contamination factor (Cdeg). The concentrations range of HMs (mg/kg) in soil were: 16.7-11200.0 (Pb); 14.3-22600.0 (Cu); 1.90-6280.0 (Ni), 39.5-4570.0 (Zn); 0.79-12300.0 (Sn); 0.02-138.0 (Cd); 12.7-1710.0 (Ba); 0.18-131.0 (Cr); 0.07-28.0 (V), while As was below detection limit. Concentrations range in control soils were 1.36-9.70 (Pb), 2.06-7.60 (Cu), 1.25-5.11 (Ni), 3.62-15.9 (Zn), BDL-0.56 (Sn), BDL-0.01 (Cd), 14.6-47.6 (Ba), 0.21–12.2 (Cr) and 0.22-22.2 (V). The trend in ecological risk index was in the order Cu > Pb > Ni > Zn > Cr > Cd > Ba > V. The potential ecological risk index with respect to informal e-waste activities were: burning > dismantling > disposal > stockpiling. The index of geo accumulation indices revealed that soils were extremely polluted with Cd, Cu, Pb, Zn and Ni. The contamination factor indicated that 93% of the studied areas have very high contamination status for Pb, Cu, Ba, Sn and Co while Cr and Cd were in the moderately contaminated status. The degree of contamination decreased in the order of Sn > Cu > Pb >> Zn > Ba > Co > Ni > V > Cr > Cd. Heavy metal contamination of Alaba international market environment resulting from informal e-waste processing was established. Proper management of e-waste and remediation of the market environment are recommended to minimize the ecological risks.

Keywords: Alaba international market, ecological risk, electronic waste, heavy metal contamination

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Authors: Klara Smith-Etxeberria

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main goal of this study was to analyze the predictive ability of some variables associated with the parental divorce process alongside attachment history with parents on both, mother-child and father-child relationship quality. Our sample consisted of 173 undergraduate and vocational school students from the Autonomous Community of the Basque Country. All of them belonged to a divorced family. Results showed that adequate maternal strategies during the divorce process (e.g.: stable, continuous and positive role as a mother) was the variable with greater predictive ability on mother-child relationships quality. In addition, secure attachment history with mother also predicted positive mother-child relationships. On the other hand, father-child relationship quality was predicted by adequate paternal strategies during the divorce process, such as his stable, continuous and positive role as a father, along with not badmouthing the mother and promoting good mother-child relationships. Furthermore, paternal negative emotional state due to divorce was positively associated with father-child relationships quality, and both, history of attachment with mother and with father predicted father-child relationships quality. In conclusion, our data indicate that both, paternal and maternal strategies for children´s adequate adjustment during the divorce process influence on mother-child and father-child relationships quality. However, these results suggest that paternal strategies during the divorce process have a greater predictive ability on father-child relationships quality, whereas maternal positive strategies during divorce determine positive mother-child relationships among young adults.

Keywords: father-child relationships quality, mother-child relationships quality, parental divorce process, young adulthood

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Authors: Rym Saidi, Pape Alioune Ndiaye, Ibnyasser Ammar, Zineb Rchiad, Khalid Daoui, Issam Kadmiri Meftahi, Adnane Bargaz

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Chickpea (Cicer arietinum L.) is an important leguminous crop grown worldwide and plays a significant role in humans’ dietary consumption. Alongside nitrogen (N), low phosphorus (P) availability within agricultural soils is one of the major factors limiting chickpea growth and productivity. The combined application of beneficial bacterial inoculants and Rock P-fertilizer could boost chickpea performance and productivity, increasing P-utilization efficiency and minimizing nutrient losses under P-deficiency conditions. A greenhouse experiment was conducted to evaluate the response of chickpeas to two P-fertilizer forms (RP and TSP) under N2-fixer and P-solubilizer consortium inoculation to improve biological N fixation and P nutrition under P-deficient conditions. Under inoculation, chickpea chlorophyll content and chlorophyll fluorescence (RP+I and TSP+I) were increased compared to uninoculated treatments. The RP+I treatment increased both shoot and root dry weights by 48,80% and 72,68%, respectively, compared to the uninoculated RP fertilized control. Indeed, the bacterial consortium contributed to enhancing root morphological traits (e.g., root volume, surface area, and diameter) of all inoculated treatments versus the uninoculated treatments. Furthermore, soil available P and root inorganic P were significantly improved in RP+I by 162,84% and 73,24%, respectively, compared to uninoculated RP control. Our research outcomes suggest that the co-inoculation of chickpeas with N2-fixing, and P-solubilizing bacteria improves biomass yield and nutrient uptake. Eventually, enhancing chickpea agrophysiological performance, especially in restricted P-availability conditions.

Keywords: chickpea, consortium, beneficial bacterial inoculants, phosphorus deficiency, rock p-fertilizer, nutrient uptake

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Authors: Sali Chinsathit, Haruthai Kaenla

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Organic agriculture has become a major policy theme for agricultural development in Thailand since October 2005. Organic farming is enlisted as an important national agenda, to promote safe food and national export, and many government authorities have initiated projects and activities centered on organic farming promotion. Currently, Thailand has the market share of about 32 million US$ a year by exporting organic products of rice, vegetables, tea, fruits and a few medicinal herbs. There is high potential in organic crop production as there is the tropical environment promoting crop growth and leader farmer in organic farming. However, organic sector is relatively small (0.2%) comparing with conventional agricultural area, since there are many factors affecting farmers’ adoption and success in organic farming. The objective of this project was to get the organic production technology for at least 3 organic crops. The treatment and method were complied with Thai Organic Standard, and were mainly concerned on increase plant biodiversity and soil improvement by using organic fertilizer and bio-extract from fish, egg, plant and fruits. The bio-logical control, plant-extracts, and cultural practices were used to control insect pests and diseases of 3 crops including mangosteen (Garcinia mangostana L.), longkong (Aglaia dookoo Griff.) and banana (Musa (AA group)). The experiments were carried out at research centers of Department of Agriculture and farmers’ farms in Rayong and Chanthaburi provinces from 2009 to 2013. We found that both locations, plant biodiversity by intercropping mangosteen or longkong with banana and soil improvement with composts and bio-extract from fish could increased yield and farmers’ income by 6,835 US$/ha/year. Farmers got knowledge from these technologies to produce organic crops. The organic products were sold both in domestic and international countries. The organic production technologies were also environmental friendly and could be used as an alternative way for farmers in Thailand.

Keywords: banana, longkong, mangosteen, organic farming

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Authors: Khaled M Hama, Mohammed Al Magableh, Zaid Al Kuri .Ahmad Qayam

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The study aimed to identify the role of academic leaders at Jerash University in crisis management from the faculty members' point of view, ‘the emerging Corona pandemic as a model’, as well as to identify the differences in the role of academic leaders at Jerash University in crisis management at the significance level (0.05 ≤ α) according to the study variables Gender Academic rank, years of experience, and identifying proposals that contribute to developing the performance of academic leaders at Jerash University in crisis management, ‘the Corona pandemic as a model’. The study was applied to a randomly selected sample of (72) faculty members at Jerash University, The researcher designed a tool for the study, which is the questionnaire, and it included two parts: the first part related to the personal data of the study sample members, and the second part was divided into five areas and (34) paragraphs to reveal the role of academic leaders at Jerash University in crisis management - the Corona pandemic as a model, it was confirmed From the validity and reliability of the tool, the study used the descriptive analytical method The study reached the following results: that the role of academic leaders at Jerash University in crisis management from the point of view of faculty members, ‘the emerging corona pandemic as a model’, came to a high degree, and there were no statistically significant differences at the level of statistical significance (α = 0.05) between the computational circles for the estimates of individuals The study sample for the role of academic leaders at Jerash University in crisis management is attributed to the study variables (gender, academic rank, and years of experience)

Keywords: academic leaders, crisis management, corona pandemic, Jerash University

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Authors: Laith F. Gulli, Nicole M. Mallory

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The undertaking to develop a psychometric instrument is monumental. Understanding the relationship between variables and events is important in structural and exploratory design of psychometric instruments. Considering this, we describe a method used to group, pair and combine multiple Philosophical Assumption statements that assisted in development of a 13 item psychometric screening instrument. We abbreviated our Philosophical Assumptions (PA)s and added parameters, which were then condensed and mathematically modeled in a specific process. This model produced clusters of combinatorics which was utilized in design and development for 1) information retrieval and categorization 2) item development and 3) estimation of interactions among variables and likelihood of events. The psychometric screening instrument measured Knowledge, Assessment (education) and Beliefs (KAB) of New Addictions Research (NAR), which we called KABNAR. We obtained an overall internal consistency for the seven Likert belief items as measured by Cronbach’s α of .81 in the final study of 40 Clinicians, calculated by SPSS 14.0.1 for Windows. We constructed the instrument to begin with demographic items (degree/addictions certifications) for identification of target populations that practiced within Outpatient Substance Abuse Counseling (OSAC) settings. We then devised education items, beliefs items (seven items) and a modifiable “barrier from learning” item that consisted of six “choose any” choices. We also conceptualized a close relationship between identifying various degrees and certifications held by Outpatient Substance Abuse Therapists (OSAT) (the demographics domain) and all aspects of their education related to EB-NAR (past and present education and desired future training). We placed a descriptive (PA)1tx in both demographic and education domains to trace relationships of therapist education within these two domains. The two perceptions domains B1/b1 and B2/b2 represented different but interrelated perceptions from the therapist perspective. The belief items measured therapist perceptions concerning EB-NAR and therapist perceptions using EB-NAR during the beginning of outpatient addictions counseling. The (PA)s were written in simple words and descriptively accurate and concise. We then devised a list of parameters and appropriately matched them to each PA and devised descriptive parametric (PA)s in a domain categorized information grid. Descriptive parametric (PA)s were reduced to simple mathematical symbols. This made it easy to utilize parametric (PA)s into algorithms, combinatorics and clusters to develop larger information grids. By using matching combinatorics we took paired demographic and education domains with a subscript of 1 and matched them to the column with each B domain with subscript 1. Our algorithmic matching formed larger information grids with organized clusters in columns and rows. We repeated the process using different demographic, education and belief domains and devised multiple information grids with different parametric clusters and geometric arrays. We found benefit combining clusters by different geometric arrays, which enabled us to trace parametric variables and concepts. We were able to understand potential differences between dependent and independent variables and trace relationships of maximum likelihoods.

Keywords: psychometric, parametric, domains, grids, therapists

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Authors: Mayowa Adeyeye

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This study was conducted to investigate the psychological variables motivating sport participation and involvement among student-athletes of tertiary institutions in south-west Nigeria. One thousand three hundred and fifty (N-1350) student-athletes were randomly selected in all sports from nine tertiary institutions in south-west Nigeria. These tertiary institutions include University of Lagos, Lagos State University, Obafemi Awolowo University, Osun State University, University of Ibadan, University of Agriculture Abeokuta, Federal University of Technology Akungba, University of Ilorin, and Kwara State University. The descriptive survey research method was adopted while a self developed validated likert type questionnaire named Sport Participation Scale (SPS) was used to elicit opinion from respondents. The test-retest reliability value obtained for the instrument, using Pearson Product Moment Correlation Co-efficient was 0.96. Out of the one thousand three hundred and fifty (N-1350) questionnaire administered, only one thousand two hundred and five (N-1286) were correctly filled, coded and analysed using inferential statistics of Chi-Square (X2) while all the tested hypotheses were set at .05 alpha level. Based on the findings of this study, the result revealed that several psychological factors influence student athletes to continue participation in sport, which includes love for the game, famous athletes as role model and family support. However, the analysis further revealed that the stipends the student-athletes get from their universities have no influence on their participation and involvement in sport.

Keywords: sport participation, involvement, student-athletes, role model, family, peer

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Authors: Jinhoa Lee

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The relationships between environmental quality, energy use and economic output have created growing attention over the past decades among researchers and policy makers. Focusing on the empirical aspects of the role of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and energy use in affecting the economic output, this paper is an effort to fulfill the gap in a comprehensive case study at a country level using modern econometric techniques. To achieve the goal, this country-specific study examines the short-run and long-run relationships among energy consumption (using disaggregated energy sources: crude oil, coal, natural gas, and electricity), CO2 emissions and gross domestic product (GDP) for Turkey using time series analysis from the year 1980-2010. To investigate the relationships between the variables, this paper employs the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test for stationarity, Johansen’s maximum likelihood method for cointegration and a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) for both short- and long-run causality among the research variables for the sample. The long-run equilibrium in the VECM suggests no effects of the CO2 emissions and energy use on the GDP in Turkey. There exists a short-run bidirectional relationship between the electricity and natural gas consumption, and also there is a negative unidirectional causality running from the GDP to electricity use. Overall, the results partly support arguments that there are relationships between energy use and economic output; however, the effects may differ due to the source of energy such as in the case of Turkey for the period of 1980-2010. However, there is no significant relationship between the CO2 emissions and the GDP and between the CO2 emissions and the energy use both in the short term and long term.

Keywords: CO2 emissions, energy consumption, GDP, Turkey, time series analysis

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Authors: G. Disciglio, F. Lops, A. Carlucci, G. Gatta, A. Tarantino, L. Frabboni, F. Carriero, F. Cibelli, M. L. Raimondo, E. Tarantino

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The Phelipanche ramosa is is an important crop whose cultivation in the Mediterranean basin is severely contained the phitoparasitic weed Phelipanche ramose. The semiarid regions of the world are considered the main center of this parasitic weed, where heavy infestation is due to the ability to produce high numbers of seeds (up to 500,000 per plant), that remain viable for extended period (more than 19 years). In this paper 12 treatments of parasitic weed control including chemical, agronomic, biological and biotechnological methods have been carried out. In 2014 a trial was performed at Foggia (southern Italy). on processing tomato (cv Docet), grown in field infested by Phelipanche ramosa, Tomato seedlings were transplant on May 5, 2014 on a clay-loam soil (USDA) fertilized by 100 kg ha-1 of N; 60 kg ha-1 of P2O5 and 20 kg ha-1 of S. Afterwards, top dressing was performed with 70 kg ha-1 of N. The randomized block design with 3 replicates was adopted. During the growing cycle of the tomato, at 56-78 and 92 days after transplantation, the number of parasitic shoots emerged in each pot was detected. At harvesting, on August 18, the major quantity-quality yield parameters were determined (marketable yield, mean weight, dry matter, pH, soluble solids and color of fruits). All data were subjected to analysis of variance (ANOVA), using the JMP software (SAS Institute Inc., Cary, NC, USA), and for comparison of means was used Tukey's test. Each treatment studied did not provide complete control against Phelipanche ramosa. However among the 12 tested methods, Fusarium, gliphosate, radicon biostimulant and Red Setter tomato cv (improved genotypes obtained by Tilling technology) proved to mitigate the virulence of the attacks of Phelipanche ramose. It is assumed that these effects can be improved by combining some of these treatments each other, especially for a gradual and continuing reduction of the “seed bank” of the parasite in the soil.

Keywords: control methods, Phelipanche ramosa, tomato crop, mediterranean basin

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Authors: Yousef M. Alammari, Mahmoud A. Gaddoury, Reem A. Almohaini, Sara A. Alharbi, Lena S. Alsaleem, Lujain H. Allowaihiq, Maha H. Alrashid, Abdullah H. Alghamdi, Abdullah A. Alaryni

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Objective: The goal of this study was to establish the prevalence of neuropsychiatric symptoms in systemic lupus erythematosus (NPSLE) patients in Saudi Arabia and the variables that are linked to it. Methods: During June 2021, this cross-sectional study was carried out among SLE patients in Saudi Arabia. The Saudi Rheumatism Association exploited social media platforms to provide a self-administered online questionnaire to SLE patients. All data analyses were performed using the Statistical Packages for Social Sciences (SPSS) version 26. Results: Two hundred and five SLE patients participated in the study (females 91.3 % vs. males 8.7 %). In addition, 13.5 % of patients had a family history of SLE, and 26% had SLE for one to three years. Alteration or loss of sensation (53.4%), Fear (52.4%), and headache (48.1%) were the most prevalent signs of neuropsychiatric symptoms in systemic lupus erythematosus (NPSLE) patients. The prevalence of patients with NPSLE was 40%. In a multivariate regression model, fear, altered sensations, cerebrovascular illness, sleep disruption, and diminished interest in routine activities were identified as independent risk variables for NPSLE. Conclusion: Nearly half of SLE patients demonstrated NP manifestations, with significant symptoms including fear, alteration of sensation, cerebrovascular disease, sleep disturbance, and reduced interest in normal activities. To detect the pathophysiology of NPSLE, it is necessary to understand the relationship between neuropsychiatric morbidity and other relevant rheumatic disorders in the SLE population.

Keywords: neuropsychiatric, systemic lupus erythematosus, NPSLE, prevalence, SLE patients

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Authors: Tooraj Karimi, Mohammadreza Sadeghi Moghadam

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Grey set theory has the advantage of using fewer data to analyze many factors, and it is therefore more appropriate for system study rather than traditional statistical regression which require massive data, normal distribution in the data and few variant factors. So, in this paper grey clustering and entropy of coefficient vector of grey evaluations are used to analyze energy consumption in buildings of the Oil Ministry in Tehran. In fact, this article intends to analyze the results of energy audit reports and defines most favorable characteristics of system, which is energy consumption of buildings, and most favorable factors affecting these characteristics in order to modify and improve them. According to the results of the model, ‘the real Building Load Coefficient’ has been selected as the most important system characteristic and ‘uncontrolled area of the building’ has been diagnosed as the most favorable factor which has the greatest effect on energy consumption of building. Grey clustering in this study has been used for two purposes: First, all the variables of building relate to energy audit cluster in two main groups of indicators and the number of variables is reduced. Second, grey clustering with variable weights has been used to classify all buildings in three categories named ‘no standard deviation’, ‘low standard deviation’ and ‘non- standard’. Entropy of coefficient vector of Grey evaluations is calculated to investigate greyness of results. It shows that among the 38 buildings surveyed in terms of energy consumption, 3 cases are in standard group, 24 cases are in ‘low standard deviation’ group and 11 buildings are completely non-standard. In addition, clustering greyness of 13 buildings is less than 0.5 and average uncertainly of clustering results is 66%.

Keywords: energy audit, grey set theory, grey incidence matrixes, grey clustering, Iran oil ministry

Procedia PDF Downloads 362

Authors: Selina Studer, Maria Kleinstäuber, Cornelia Weise

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Background: Finding words to report what you have been through may be challenging, especially when dealing with stressful or highly emotional experiences. Photovoice (PV) represents a possible way of facilitating experience reporting. In this approach, people take photos about a particular topic (in our study: worries about the future) and talk about the topic based on the photos. So far, the benefits of Photovoice have been quantitatively insufficiently tested. There is a lack of randomized controlled trials investigating PV in comparison to other methods. This study aimed to fill this research gap. Methods: 65 participants took part in the study and were randomly assigned to the PV group, the writing group (WG), or the control group (CG). The PV group received the task to take photos of worries regarding the future for one week and send max. 5 of them to the interviewer before the interview. The WG had to write down the worries about the future and send max. 5 of them to the interviewer before the interview. The control group did not receive a specific assignment. The semi-structured interview consisted of six open-ended questions and was applied to all future worries. The questions included the content of the future worries, the meaning, and how the worry expressed itself emotionally and physically. The interview was recorded and later transcribed. After the interview, online questionnaires were filled out. They covered a range of variables such as access to emotional content, ability to describe feelings, the extent of self-disclosure, and relationship quality. Results: Contrary to our hypotheses, one-way ANOVA revealed no differences between the three conditions concerning all variables (access to emotional content, ability to describe feelings, the extent of self-disclosure, and so on), all p's > 0.14, BF₀₁ = 1.78-7.66. In a subsequent step, the words in the transcribed interviews were analyzed. The LIWC program counted how many emotional words occurred in the text and assigned them to predefined categories. Planned contrasts revealed that the PV reported more negative emotional words compared to the two groups t(62) = 2.62, p = .011, and also compared to the WG only, t(62) = 2.36, p = .022, BF₀₁ = 0.62. Conclusions and implications: The applied self-report instruments did not reveal any differences between the groups. However, the PV group used more negative emotional words than the other two groups. The discrepancy between self-report and observation variables regarding emotionality is noticeable. It is suggested that the highly educated and above-average female sample may not have needed PV to access emotional content. It is possible that the approach would yield clearer results in a clinical sample. This and other approaches are currently being investigated in a follow-up study.

Keywords: photovoice, controlled randomized study, online intervention, emotional awareness, self-disclosure, data triangulation, interviews

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Authors: Nada Al-Qallaf, Aisha Al-Barood, Djamel Lekmine, Srinivasan Vedhapuri

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Kuwait Oil Company (KOC) under the supervision of Kuwait National Focal Point (KNFP) is planning to remediate 26 million (M) m3 of oil-contaminated soil in oil fields of Kuwait as a direct and indirect fallout of the Gulf War during 1990-1991. This project is funded by the United Nations Compensation Commission (UNCC) under the Kuwait Environmental Remediation Program (KERP). Oil-contamination of the soil occurred due to the destruction of the oil wells and spilled crude oil across the land surface and created ‘oil lakes’ in low lying land. Aerial fall-out from oil spray and combustion products from oil fires combined with the sand and gravel on the ground surface to form a layer of hardened ‘Tarcrete’. The unique fresh groundwater lenses present in the Raudhatain and Sabriya subsurface areas had been impacted by the discharge and/or spills of dissolved petroleum constituents. These fresh groundwater aquifers were used for drinking water purposes until 1990, prior to invasion. This has significantly damages altered the landscape, ecology and habitat of the flora and fauna and in Kuwait Desert. Under KERP, KOC is fully responsible for the planning and execution of the remediation and restoration projects in KOC oil fields. After the initial recommendation of UNCC to construct engineered landfills for containment and disposal of heavily contaminated soils, two landfills were constructed, one in North Kuwait and another in South East Kuwait of capacity 1.7 million m3 and 0.5 million m3 respectively. KOC further developed the Total Remediation Strategy in conjunction with KNFP and has obtained UNCC approval. The TRS comprises of elements such as Risk Based Approach (RBA), Bioremediation of low Contaminated Soil levels, Remediation Treatment Technologies, Sludge Disposal via Beneficial Recycling or Re-use and Engineered landfills for Containment of untreatable materials. Risk Based Assessment as a key component to avoid any unnecessary remedial works, where it can be demonstrated that human health and the environment are sufficiently protected in the absence of active remediation. This study demonstrates on the risks of tarcrete materials spread over areas 20 Km2 on the fresh Ground water lenses/catchment located beneath the Sabriyah and Raudhatain oil fields in North Kuwait. KOC’s primary objective is to provide justification of using RBA, to support a case with the Kuwait regulators to leave the tarcrete material in place, rather than seek to undertake large-scale removal and remediation. The large-scale coverage of the tarcrete in the oil fields and perception that the residual contamination associated with this source is present in an environmentally sensitive area essentially in ground water resource. As part of this assessment, conceptual site model (CSM) and complete risk-based and fate and transport modelling was carried out which includes derivation of site-specific assessment criteria (SSAC) and quantification of risk to identified waters resource receptors posed by tarcrete impacted areas. The outcome of this assessment was determined that the residual tarcrete deposits across the site area shall not create risks to fresh groundwater resources and the remedial action to remove and remediate the surficial tarcrete deposits is not warranted.

Keywords: conceptual site model, fresh groundwater, oil-contaminated soil, tarcrete, risk based assessment

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Authors: Nounamo Nguedie Yann Harold

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The factors behind the debt have been the subject of several studies in the literature. Pioneering studies based on the 'double deficit' approach linked indebtedness to the imbalance between savings and investment, the budget deficit and the current account deficit. Most studies on identifying factors that may stimulate or reduce the level of external public debt agree that the following variables are important explanatory variables in leveraging debt: the budget deficit, trade opening, current account and exchange rate, import, export, interest rate, term variation exchange rate, economic growth rate and debt service, capital flight, and over-indebtedness. Few studies addressed the impact of political factors on the level of external debt. In general, however, the IMF's stabilization programs in developing countries following the debt crisis have resulted in economic recession and the advent of political crises that have resulted in changes in governments. In this sense, political institutions are recognised as factors of accumulation of external debt in most developing countries. This paper assesses the role of political factors on the external debt level of African countries in the Franc Zone over the period 1985-2016. Data used come from World Bank and ICRG. Using a logit in panel, the results show that the more a country is politically stable, the lower the external debt compared to the gross domestic product. Political stability multiplies 1.18% the chances of being in the sustainable debt zone. For example, countries with good political institutions experience less severe external debt burdens than countries with bad political institutions.

Keywords: African countries, external debt, Franc Zone, political factors

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Authors: Javier E. García-Gallo, Nelson J. Fonseca-Ruiz, John F. Duitama-Munoz

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Sepsis is a syndrome that occurs with physiological and biochemical abnormalities induced by severe infection and carries a high mortality and morbidity, therefore the severity of its condition must be interpreted quickly. After patient admission in an intensive care unit (ICU), it is necessary to synthesize the large volume of information that is collected from patients in a value that represents the severity of their condition. Traditional severity of illness scores seeks to be applicable to all patient populations, and usually assess in-hospital mortality. However, the use of machine learning techniques and the data of a population that shares a common characteristic could lead to the development of customized mortality prediction scores with better performance. This study presents the development of a score for the one-year mortality prediction of the patients that are admitted to an ICU with a sepsis diagnosis. 5650 ICU admissions extracted from the MIMICIII database were evaluated, divided into two groups: 70% to develop the score and 30% to validate it. Comorbidities, demographics and clinical information of the first 24 hours after the ICU admission were used to develop a mortality prediction score. LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) and SGB (Stochastic Gradient Boosting) variable importance methodologies were used to select the set of variables that make up the developed score; each of this variables was dichotomized and a cut-off point that divides the population into two groups with different mean mortalities was found; if the patient is in the group that presents a higher mortality a one is assigned to the particular variable, otherwise a zero is assigned. These binary variables are used in a logistic regression (LR) model, and its coefficients were rounded to the nearest integer. The resulting integers are the point values that make up the score when multiplied with each binary variables and summed. The one-year mortality probability was estimated using the score as the only variable in a LR model. Predictive power of the score, was evaluated using the 1695 admissions of the validation subset obtaining an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.7528, which outperforms the results obtained with Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), Oxford Acute Severity of Illness Score (OASIS) and Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPSII) scores on the same validation subset. Observed and predicted mortality rates within estimated probabilities deciles were compared graphically and found to be similar, indicating that the risk estimate obtained with the score is close to the observed mortality, it is also observed that the number of events (deaths) is indeed increasing as the outcome go from the decile with the lowest probabilities to the decile with the highest probabilities. Sepsis is a syndrome that carries a high mortality, 43.3% for the patients included in this study; therefore, tools that help clinicians to quickly and accurately predict a worse prognosis are needed. This work demonstrates the importance of customization of mortality prediction scores since the developed score provides better performance than traditional scoring systems.

Keywords: intensive care, logistic regression model, mortality prediction, sepsis, severity of illness, stochastic gradient boosting

Procedia PDF Downloads 201