Search results for: risk score

Authors: Magdalena Escamilla Quintal, Thelma Cetina Canto, Cecilia Aguilar Ortega

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Due to the importance that people represent for companies, the setting of a clear control of the risks that threaten the health and the material and financial resources of workers is essential. It is irrelevant if the company is a small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) or a large multinational, or if it is in the construction or service sector. The risk prevention importance is related to a constitutional and human right that all people have; working in a risk-free environment to prevent accidents or illnesses that may influence their quality of life and the tranquility of their family. Therefore, the objective of this study was to determine the level of psychosocial risks (physical and emotional) of the employees of an SME. The participants of this study were 186 employees of a productive sector SME; 151 men and 35 women, all with an average age of 31.77 years. Their seniority inside the SME was between one month and 19.91 years. Ninety-six workers were from the production area, 28 from the management area, as well as 25 from the sales area and 40 from the supplies area. Ninety-three workers were found in Uman, 78 in Playa del Carmen, 11 in Cancun and seven in Cd. del Carmen. We found a statistically significant relationship between the burnout variable and the engagement and psychosomatic complaints as well as between the variables of sex, burnout and psychosomatic complaints. We can conclude that, for benefit of the SME, that there are low levels of burnout and psychosomatic complaints, the women experience major levels of burnout and the men show major levels of psychosomatic complaints. The findings, contributions, limitations and future proposals will be analyzed.

Keywords: psychosocial risks, SME, burnout, engagement, psychosomatic complaints

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Authors: Veronica Kembabazi, Arnold Tigaiza, Juliet Aweko, Charles Opio, Michael Ediau, Elizabeth Ekirapa, Andrew Tusubira, Peter Waiswa

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Background: Digital payments have been branded as key in solving health payment challenges, evidence on their adoptability is still limited especially among Community Health Workers (CHWs), yet vital for ensuring sustainability. We therefore assessed the adoptability of digital payments for CHWs in Wakiso district, Uganda. Methods: In December 2022, we conducted a convergent parallel mixed-methods study among 150 randomly selected CHWs in Wakiso district. Supplementary qualitative data were collected from the Digital payment coordinators as Key Informants (KIs). We adopted the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) framework to assess the adoptability of digital payments among CHWS. Factor analysis was performed to extract composite variables from the original constituting variables. Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin statistics were assessed for each construct to determine appropriateness for data reduction. Using logistic regression for multivariate analysis, we assessed the association between adoptability constructs and the CHW intention to use digital payments. Quantitative data was analyzed using STATA, while qualitative data was transcribed verbatim and analyzed using ATLAS.ti software. Results: Overall, 150 respondents were interviewed and nearly all participants (98.0%) had previously received payments through mobile money, a digital-payment method. The majority (52%) of CHWs said they intend to use digital payment modalities. Perceived risk had an 83% negative influence on the adoptability of digital payment modalities (OR= 0.167, p < 0.01), perceived trust had an almost three times positive influence on the adoptability of digital payment modalities (OR= 2.823, p < 0.01). Qualitative interviews showed that most CHWs reported good experiences in their use of digital health payment modalities except for delays associated with mobile money payments. Mobile money was reported to be easy to use, in addition to fostering financial responsibility compared to cash. Conclusion: CHWs in Wakiso district intend to use digital payment modalities, particularly mobile money/e-cash, and the perceived risk of the payment method and trust are key determinants of its adoptability. Synergized efforts by both payment providers and service operators to manage payment delays and identified risks among mobile money operators could attenuate perceived risk and build trust in digital payment modalities.

Keywords: digital health payments, community health workers, adoptability, technology acceptance model

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Authors: Sadeem Aljamaan, Reem Hariri, Rahaf Alghamdi, Batool Alotaibi, Batool Alsenan, Lama Althunayyan, Areej Alnemer

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The aim of this study is to correlate between radiological findings and histopathological results in regard to the breast imaging-reporting and data system scores, size of breast masses, molecular subtypes and suspicious radiological features, as well as to assess the concordance rate in histological grade between core biopsy and surgical excision among breast cancer patients, followed by analyzing the change of concordance rate in relation to neoadjuvant chemotherapy in a Saudi population. A retrospective review was conducted over 6-year period (2017-2022) on all breast core biopsies of women preceded by radiological investigation. Chi-squared test (χ2) was performed on qualitative data, the Mann-Whitney test for quantitative non-parametric variables, and the Kappa test for grade agreement. A total of 641 cases were included. Ultrasound, mammography, and magnetic resonance imaging demonstrated diagnostic accuracies of 85%, 77.9% and 86.9%; respectively. magnetic resonance imaging manifested the highest sensitivity (72.2%), and the lowest was for ultrasound (61%). Concordance in tumor size with final excisions was best in magnetic resonance imaging, while mammography demonstrated a higher tendency of overestimation (41.9%), and ultrasound showed the highest underestimation (67.7%). The association between basal-like molecular subtypes and the breast imaging-reporting and data system score 5 classifications was statistically significant only for magnetic resonance imaging (p=0.04). Luminal subtypes demonstrated a significantly higher percentage of speculation in mammography. Breast imaging-reporting and data system score 4 manifested a substantial number of benign pathologies in all the 3 modalities. A fair concordance rate (k= 0.212 & 0.379) was demonstrated between excision and the preceding core biopsy grading with and without neoadjuvant therapy, respectively. The results demonstrated a down-grading in cases post-neoadjuvant therapy. In cases who did not receive neoadjuvant therapy, underestimation of tumor grade in biopsy was evident. In summary, magnetic resonance imaging had the highest sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and accuracy of both diagnosis and estimation of tumor size. Mammography demonstrated better sensitivity than ultrasound and had the highest negative predictive value, but ultrasound had better specificity, positive predictive value and accuracy. Therefore, the combination of different modalities is advantageous. The concordance rate of core biopsy grading with excision was not impacted by neoadjuvant therapy.

Keywords: breast cancer, mammography, MRI, neoadjuvant, pathology, US

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Authors: Randa Ismail Sharafeddine

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The Islamic economic system is distinctive in that it implicitly recognizes money as a separate, independent component of production capable of assuming risk and so entitled to the same reward as other Entrepreneurial Factors of Production (EFP). Conventional theory does not identify money capital explicitly as a component of production; rather, interest is recognized as a reward for capital, the interest rate is the cost of money capital, and it is also seen as a cost of physical capital. The conventional theory of production examines how diverse non-entrepreneurial resources (Land, Labor, and Capital) are selected; however, the economic theory community is largely unaware of the reasons why these resources choose to remain as non-entrepreneurial resources as opposed to becoming entrepreneurial resources. Should land, labor, and financial asset owners choose to work for others in return for rent, income, or interest, or should they engage in entrepreneurial risk-taking in order to profit. This is a decision made often in the actual world, but it has never been effectively treated in economic theory. This article will conduct a critical analysis of the conventional classification of factors of production and propose a classification for resource allocation and income distribution (Rent, Wages, Interest, and Profits) that is more rational, even within the conventional theoretical framework for evaluating and developing production and distribution theories. Money is an essential component of production in an Islamic economy, and it must be used to sustain economic activity.

Keywords: financial capital, production theory, distribution theory, economic activity, riba avoidance, institution of participation

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Authors: S. Behnam Asl, H. Sadeghi Naeini, L. Sadat Ensaniat, R. Khorshidian, S. Alipour, S. Behnam Asl

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Nowadays, the construction industry is growing, especially among developing countries. Iran also has a critical role in these industries in terms of workers disorders. Work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMSDs) account for 7% of the whole diseases in the society, which makes some limitations. One of the main factors which causes WMSDs is awkward posture. Steel bar bending is considered as one of the prominent performance among construction workers. In this case study, we aimed to find the major tasks of bar benders and the most important risk factors related to it. This study was carried out among twenty workers (18-45 years) as our volunteer samples in some construction sites with less than 6 floors in two regions of Tehran municipality. The data was gathered through in depth observation, interview and questionnaire. Also postural analysis was done by OWAS method. In another part of study we used NMQ for gathering some data about psychosocial effects of work related disorders. Our findings show that 64% of workers were not aware of work risks, about 59% of workers had troubles in their wrists, hands, especially workers who worked in steel bar bending. In 46% cases lower back pain was in prevalence. Considering gathered data and results, awkward postures and long term tasks and their duration are known as the main risk factors of WMSDs among construction workers, meaning that work-rest schedule and tools design should be reconsidered to make an ergonomic condition for the mentioned workers.

Keywords: bar benders, construction workers, musculoskeletal disorders (WMSDs), OWAS method

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Authors: Jefrey Pilusa, Tumisang Seodigeng

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This research discusses a South African case study for the potential of utilizing refuse-derived fuel (RDF) obtained from non-burn treatment of health care risk waste (HCRW) as potential feedstock for green energy production. This specific waste stream can be destroyed via non-burn treatment technology involving high-speed mechanical shredding followed by steam or chemical injection to disinfect the final product. The RDF obtained from this process is characterised by a low moisture, low ash, and high calorific value which means it can be potentially used as high-value solid fuel. Due to the raw feed of this RDF being classified as hazardous, the final RDF has been reported to be non-infectious and can blend with other combustible wastes such as rubber and plastic for waste to energy applications. This study evaluated non-burn treatment technology as a possible solution for on-site destruction of HCRW in South African private and public health care centres. Waste generation quantities were estimated based on the number of registered patient beds, theoretical bed occupancy. Time and motion study was conducted to evaluate the logistics viability of on-site treatment. Non-burn treatment technology for HCRW is a promising option for South Africa, and successful implementation of this method depends upon the initial capital investment, operational cost and environmental permitting of such technology; there are other influencing factors such as the size of the waste stream, product off-take price as well as product demand.

Keywords: autoclave, disposal, fuel, incineration, medical waste

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Authors: B.S. Roopa

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Objectives: To investigate the prevalence of concomitant use of GPDs in patients treated with NSAIDs and GPDs in recommended dose and frequency as prophylaxis. And also to know the association between risk factors and prescription of GPDs in patients treated with NSAIDs. Methods: Study was a prospective, observational, cross-sectional survey. Data from patients with prescription of NSAIDs at the out-patient departments of secondary care Hospital, Nilgiris, India were collected in a specially designed proforma for a period of 45 days. Analysis using χ2 tests for discrete variables. Factors that might be associated with prescription of GPD with NSIADs were assessed in multiple logistic regression models. Results: Three hundred and three patients were included in this study, and the rate of GPD prescription was 89.1%. Most of the patients received H2-receptor antagonist, and, to a lesser degree, antacid and proton pump inhibitor. Patients with history of GI ulcer/bleeding were much more likely to be co-prescribed GPD than those who had no history of GI disorders .Compared with patients who were managed in general outpatient clinic, those managed in Secondary care hospital in Nilgrisis, India were more likely to receive GPD. Conclusions: The prescription rate of GPD with NSAIDs is high. Patients were prescribed with H2RA with dose of 150mg twice daily, which are not effective in reducing the risk of NSAIDs induced gastric ulcer. Only the frequency of NSAIDs prescription was considered significant determinant for the co-prescription with GPAs in patients who are < 65 years and ≥ 65 years old.

Keywords: gastro protective agents, non steridol anti inlfammatory agents

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Authors: Abbas Sedighinejad, Hossein Khoshrang, Mohammad Haghighi, Ali Ashraf, Mostafa Saeedinia, Gelareh Biazar, Zahra Atrkarroushan, Mahdi Ajdadi

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Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) as an alarming attack broke out in China and spread rapidly worldwide. Objectives: Based on a theory indicating the correlation between some viral diseases and blood types, we investigated the relationship between blood groups and coronavirus infection risk in Guilan Province, Iran. Methods: Retrospectively, all the files of the admitted patients with suspected COVID-19, in peak conditions of the disease between March 1 and May 30, 2020, were reviewed using the Census method. The required data, including epidemiological and clinical information and outcomes, were obtained from electronic records. Results: A total of 249 cases were analyzed, of whom 109 were collected from governmental centers, and the rest were collected from private hospitals. The most common co-morbidity was diabetes with 71 (37.6%) cases and the main symptom at the admission time was dyspnea with 170 (24.5%) cases. Of the total patients, 155 (62.2%) were discharged, and the rest died. The most common blood group among our patients was O Rh-positive with 91 (36.5%) cases. No meaningful correlation was found between outcomes and blood groups in terms of ABO types (P = 0.89) or Rh factor (P = 0.456). The Rh-positive proportion was significantly higher in the COVID-19 cases than in the general population (P = 0.038). Conclusions: We found that the Rh-positive proportion was significantly higher in the COVID-19 cases than in the healthy individuals. However, no correlation was observed between the groups regarding ABO typing.

Keywords: ABO blood group, COVID 19, association, personal protection

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Authors: Khalil Aryanfar, Shahrzad Sanjari, Pariya Gholipor, Elmira Hafez

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The present study aimed to investigate and compare the characteristics of entrepreneurship among students in senior secondary schools in the academic year 2008-2009 in Tabriz city. Research employed survey method respectively. The study population consisted of all students in the senior branch of theoretical, technical, professional and vocational (1033 patients) were included. Sample size of 493 was calculated according to Morgan table. Sampling method was random cluster and stratified sampling. Data collected by researcher made questionnaire based on the theory of MC clleland (1963) and Brvkhavs (1980). These tools would indicators be for achievement, Independence, disposition, creativity, risk-taking, self-control, tolerance for ambiguity, team work approach in the future. To determine the psychometric properties of the questionnaire, content validity of the survey was approved by relevant experts. In addition, to estimate the internal consistency of Cronbach's alpha coefficient was calculated for 84% of total inventory. Collected data Using mean, standard deviation and were analyzed by ANOVA. The results showed that there is a significant difference between students' entrepreneurial potential fields of theoretical, technical, professional and vocational level (0/01).

Keywords: entrepreneurship, achievement motivation, risk taking, creativity, self-control, independence, tolerance of ambiguity, foresight

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Authors: Naushad Mamode Khan

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The Com-Poisson (CMP) model is one of the most popular discrete generalized linear models (GLMS) that handles both equi-, over- and under-dispersed data. In longitudinal context, an integer-valued autoregressive (INAR(1)) process that incorporates covariate specification has been developed to model longitudinal CMP counts. However, the joint likelihood CMP function is difficult to specify and thus restricts the likelihood based estimating methodology. The joint generalized quasilikelihood approach (GQL-I) was instead considered but is rather computationally intensive and may not even estimate the regression effects due to a complex and frequently ill conditioned covariance structure. This paper proposes a new GQL approach for estimating the regression parameters (GQLIII) that are based on a single score vector representation. The performance of GQL-III is compared with GQL-I and separate marginal GQLs (GQL-II) through some simulation experiments and is proved to yield equally efficient estimates as GQL-I and is far more computationally stable.

Keywords: longitudinal, com-Poisson, ill-conditioned, INAR(1), GLMS, GQL

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Authors: Helen Pushkarskaya, David Tolin, Lital Ruderman, Ariel Kirshenbaum, J. MacLaren Kelly, Christopher Pittenger, Ifat Levy

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Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder (OCD) produces profound morbidity. Difficulties with decision making and intolerance of uncertainty are prominent clinical features of OCD. The nature and etiology of these deficits are poorly understood. We used a well-validated choice task, grounded in behavioral economic theory, to investigate differences in valuation and value-based choice during decision making under uncertainty in 20 unmedicated participants with OCD and 20 matched healthy controls. Participants’ choices were used to assess individual decision-making characteristics. Compared to controls, individuals with OCD were less consistent in their choices and less able to identify options that were unambiguously preferable. These differences correlated with symptom severity. OCD participants did not differ from controls in how they valued uncertain options when outcome probabilities were known (risk) but were more likely than controls to avoid uncertain options when these probabilities were imprecisely specified (ambiguity). These results suggest that the underlying neural mechanisms of valuation and value-based choices during decision-making are abnormal in OCD. Individuals with OCD show elevated intolerance of uncertainty, but only when outcome probabilities are themselves uncertain. Future research focused on the neural valuation network, which is implicated in value-based computations, may provide new neurocognitive insights into the pathophysiology of OCD. Deficits in decision-making processes may represent a target for therapeutic intervention.

Keywords: obsessive compulsive disorder, decision-making, uncertainty intolerance, risk aversion, ambiguity aversion, valuation

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Authors: Ariane Plaisance, Holly O. Witteman, Patrick Michel Archambault

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Upon admission to an intensive care unit (ICU), all patients should discuss their wishes concerning life-sustaining interventions (e.g., cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR)). Without such discussions, interventions that prolong life at the cost of decreasing its quality may be used without appropriate guidance from patients. We employed user-centered design to adapt an existing decision aid (DA) about CPR to create a novel wiki-based DA adapted to the context of a single ICU and tailored to individual patient’s risk factors. During Phase 1, we conducted three weeks of ethnography of the decision-making context in our ICU to identify clinician and patient needs for a decision aid. During this time, we observed five dyads of intensivists and patients discussing their wishes concerning life-sustaining interventions. We also conducted semi-structured interviews with the attending intensivists in this ICU. During Phase 2, we conducted three rounds of rapid prototyping involving 15 patients and 11 other allied health professionals. We recorded discussions between intensivists and patients and used a standardized observation grid to collect patients’ comments and sociodemographic data. We applied content analysis to field notes, verbatim transcripts and the completed observation grids. Each round of observations and rapid prototyping iteratively informed the design of the next prototype. We also used the programming architecture of a wiki platform to embed the GO-FAR prediction rule programming code that we linked to a risk graphics software to better illustrate outcome risks calculated. During Phase I, we identified the need to add a section in our DA concerning invasive mechanical ventilation in addition to CPR because both life-sustaining interventions were often discussed together by physicians. During Phase II, we produced a context-adapted decision aid about CPR and mechanical ventilation that includes a values clarification section, questions about the patient’s functional autonomy prior to admission to the ICU and the functional decline that they would judge acceptable upon hospital discharge, risks and benefits of CPR and invasive mechanical ventilation, population-level statistics about CPR, a synthesis section to help patients come to a final decision and an online calculator based on the GO-FAR prediction rule. Even though the three rounds of rapid prototyping led to simplifying the information in our DA, 60% (n= 3/5) of the patients involved in the last cycle still did not understand the purpose of the DA. We also identified gaps in the discussion and documentation of patients’ preferences concerning life-sustaining interventions (e.g.,. CPR, invasive mechanical ventilation). The final version of our DA and our online wiki-based GO-FAR risk calculator using the IconArray.com risk graphics software are available online at www.wikidecision.org and are ready to be adapted to other contexts. Our results inform producers of decision aids on the use of wikis and user-centered design to develop DAs that are better adapted to users’ needs. Further work is needed on the creation of a video version of our DA. Physicians will also need the training to use our DA and to develop shared decision-making skills about goals of care.

Keywords: ethnography, intensive care units, life-sustaining therapies, user-centered design

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Authors: Krzysztof J. Czarnocki, E. Czarnocka, K. Szaniawska

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Main goal of the research project is Scaffold Use Risk Assessment Model (SURAM) formulation, developed for the assessment of risk levels as a various construction process stages with various work trades. Finally, in 2016, the project received financing by the National Center for Research and development according to PBS3/A2/19/2015–Research Grant. The presented data, calculations and analyzes discussed in this paper were created as a result of the completion on the first and second phase of the PBS3/A2/19/2015 project. Method: One of the arms of the research project is the assessment of worker visual concentration on the sight zones as well as risky visual point inadequate observation. In this part of research, the mobile eye-tracker was used to monitor the worker observation zones. SMI Eye Tracking Glasses is a tool, which allows us to analyze in real time and place where our eyesight is concentrated on and consequently build the map of worker's eyesight concentration during a shift. While the project is still running, currently 64 construction sites have been examined, and more than 600 workers took part in the experiment including monitoring of typical parameters of the work regimen, workload, microclimate, sound vibration, etc. Full equipment can also be useful in more advanced analyses. Because of that technology we have verified not only main focus of workers eyes during work on or next to scaffolding, but we have also examined which changes in the surrounding environment during their shift influenced their concentration. In the result of this study it has been proven that only up to 45.75% of the shift time, workers’ eye concentration was on one of three work-related areas. Workers seem to be distracted by noisy vehicles or people nearby. In opposite to our initial assumptions and other authors’ findings, we observed that the reflective parts of the scaffoldings were not more recognized by workers in their direct workplaces. We have noticed that the red curbs were the only well recognized part on a very few scaffoldings. Surprisingly on numbers of samples, we have not recognized any significant number of concentrations on those curbs. Conclusion: We have found the eye-tracking method useful for the construction of the SURAM model in the risk perception and worker’s behavior sub-modules. We also have found that the initial worker's stress and work visual conditions seem to be more predictive for assessment of the risky developing situation or an accident than other parameters relating to a work environment.

Keywords: accident assessment model, eye tracking, occupational safety, scaffolding

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Authors: Darynne Madison Dela Gente, Panayiota Courelli

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Similarities in behavior between perpetrators of school violence and those with a parent in prison raise concern when considering the root causes of a student’s violent behavior. Dealing with parental incarceration is highly consequential on a student’s emotional well-being and may cause aggressive behavior that can lead to them becoming a perpetrator of school violence. These students are more likely to have interpersonal issues, antisocial tendencies, and a hostile demeanor, which are factors that closely align with indicators of an offender of violence. Developmental risk factors of parental incarceration are heavily understudied and often overlooked. This literature review aims to analyze the correlation between having a parent in prison and exhibiting physical or verbal aggression in a school environment. Furthermore, it strives to bring awareness to the inconsistencies in existing research and encourage a greater depth of study of the behavioral impacts, specifically in an academic setting. Furthermore, it will elaborate on the effectiveness of current intervention programs, such as Project Avary, Hope House, Kids Mates Inc., and Girl Scouts Beyond Bars, which provide immense support, as well as proposed methods of implementation in a school environment. Creating a space for these students to cope ultimately aids in the prevention of violent behaviors and intergenerational incarceration. Access to intervention programs, especially in schools located in areas with high rates of incarceration, would greatly reduce the risk of these students becoming perpetrators of school violence.

Keywords: adolescent behavior, adolescent mental health, parental incarceration, school violence prevention

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Authors: Raghav Lakhotia, Sameer Ganu, Anshul Goel, Abhishek Kumar

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In the age and times where women’s empowerment is a significant topic of discussion, we aim to analyze the potential gender diversity influence on box office revenues. The following research is carried out by collecting data from 400 Hollywood movies between the years 2014-2017 and performing regression analysis to find a correlation between the presence of female characters in movies and their return on investment (ROI). The paper finds that there is a positive relationship between the performance of the movies (its ROI) and the gender diversity i.e. the more the number of female characters, the higher the revenue generated. Another factor such as Number of Votes also has a direct impact on the revenue of the movie. The research not only takes into consideration the mere presence of women on screen but also the exchange of at least one dialogue among themselves, which is presented by the Bechdel Score of the movie.

Keywords: Bechdel, diversity, Hollywood, return on investment

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Authors: Neha Gupta

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Landslide vulnerability is considered as the crucial parameter for the assessment of landslide risk. The term vulnerability defined as the damage or degree of elements at risk of different dimensions, i.e., physical, social, economic, and environmental dimensions. Himalaya region is very prone to multi-hazard such as floods, forest fires, earthquakes, and landslides. With the increases in fatalities rates, loss of infrastructure, and economy due to landslide in the Himalaya region, leads to the assessment of vulnerability. In this study, a methodology to measure the combination of vulnerability dimension, i.e., social vulnerability, physical vulnerability, and environmental vulnerability in one framework. A combined result of these vulnerabilities has rarely been carried out. But no such approach was applied in the Indian Scenario. The methodology was applied in an area of east Sikkim Himalaya, India. The physical vulnerability comprises of building footprint layer extracted from remote sensing data and Google Earth imaginary. The social vulnerability was assessed by using population density based on land use. The land use map was derived from a high-resolution satellite image, and for environment vulnerability assessment NDVI, forest, agriculture land, distance from the river were assessed from remote sensing and DEM. The classes of social vulnerability, physical vulnerability, and environment vulnerability were normalized at the scale of 0 (no loss) to 1 (loss) to get the homogenous dataset. Then the Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA) was used to assign individual weights to each dimension and then integrate it into one frame. The final vulnerability was further classified into four classes from very low to very high.

Keywords: landslide, multi-criteria analysis, MCA, physical vulnerability, social vulnerability

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Authors: Mojtaba Zabihi, Stephen Munro, Jonathan Little, Ri Li, Joshua Brinkerhoff, Sina Kheirkhah

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Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) identified dental workers at the highest risk of contracting COVID-19. This is because aerosol-generating procedures (AGP) during dental practices generate aerosols ( < 5µm) and droplets. These particles travel at varying speeds, in varying directions, and for varying durations. If these particles bear infectious viruses, their spreading causes airborne transmission of the virus in the dental room, exposing dentists, hygienists, dental assistants, and even other dental clinic clients to the infection risk. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation of two-phase flows based on a discrete phase model (DPM) is carried out to study the spreading of aerosol and droplets in a dental room. The simulation includes momentum, heat, and mass transfers between the particles and the airflow. Two simulations are conducted and compared. One simulation focuses on the effects of room ventilation in winter and summer on the particles' travel. The other simulation focuses on the control of aerosol and droplets' spreading. A suction collector is added near the source of aerosol and droplets, creating a flow sink in order to remove the particles. The effects of the suction flow on the aerosol and droplet travel are studied. The suction flow can remove aerosols and also reduce the spreading of droplets.

Keywords: aerosols, computational fluid dynamics, COVID-19, dental, discrete phase model, droplets, two-phase flow

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Authors: Yegnanew A. Shiferaw

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Background: commodity price volatility originating from excessive commodity price fluctuation has been a global problem especially after the recent financial crises. Volatility is a measure of risk or uncertainty in financial analysis. It plays a vital role in risk management, portfolio management, and pricing equity. Objectives: the core objective of this paper is to examine the relationship between the prices of agricultural commodities with oil price, gas price, coal price and exchange rate (USD/Rand). In addition, the paper tries to fit an appropriate model that best describes the log return price volatility and estimate Value-at-Risk and expected shortfall. Data and methods: the data used in this study are the daily returns of agricultural commodity prices from 02 January 2007 to 31st October 2016. The data sets consists of the daily returns of agricultural commodity prices namely: white maize, yellow maize, wheat, sunflower, soya, corn, and sorghum. The paper applies the three-state Markov-switching (MS) regression, the standard single-regime GARCH and the two regime Markov-switching GARCH (MS-GARCH) models. Results: to choose the best fit model, the log-likelihood function, Akaike information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and deviance information criterion (DIC) are employed under three distributions for innovations. The results indicate that: (i) the price of agricultural commodities was found to be significantly associated with the price of coal, price of natural gas, price of oil and exchange rate, (ii) for all agricultural commodities except sunflower, k=3 had higher log-likelihood values and lower AIC and BIC values. Thus, the three-state MS regression model outperformed the two-state MS regression model (iii) MS-GARCH(1,1) with generalized error distribution (ged) innovation performs best for white maize and yellow maize; MS-GARCH(1,1) with student-t distribution (std) innovation performs better for sorghum; MS-gjrGARCH(1,1) with ged innovation performs better for wheat, sunflower and soya and MS-GARCH(1,1) with std innovation performs better for corn. In conclusion, this paper provided a practical guide for modelling agricultural commodity prices by MS regression and MS-GARCH processes. This paper can be good as a reference when facing modelling agricultural commodity price problems.

Keywords: commodity prices, MS-GARCH model, MS regression model, South Africa, volatility

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Authors: Florim Grajcevci, Flamur Grajcevci, Fatos Tahiri, Hamdi Kurteshi

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The territory of Kosova is actually included in one of the most seismic-prone regions in Europe. Therefore, the earthquakes are not so rare in Kosova; and when they occurred, the consequences have been rather destructive. The importance of assessing the seismic resistance of existing masonry structures has drawn strong and growing interest in the recent years. Engineering included those of Vulnerability, Loss of Buildings and Risk assessment, are also of a particular interest. This is due to the fact that this rapidly developing field is related to great impact of earthquakes on the socioeconomic life in seismic-prone areas, as Kosova and Prishtina are, too. Such work paper for Prishtina city may serve as a real basis for possible interventions in historic buildings as are museums, mosques, old residential buildings, in order to adequately strengthen and/or repair them, by reducing the seismic risk within acceptable limits. The procedures of the vulnerability assessment of building structures have concentrated on structural system, capacity, and the shape of layout and response parameters. These parameters will provide expected performance of the very important existing building structures on the vulnerability and the overall behavior during the earthquake excitations. The structural systems of existing historical buildings in Pristina, Kosovo, are dominantly unreinforced brick or stone masonry with very high risk potential from the expected earthquakes in the region. Therefore, statistical analysis based on the observed damage-deformation, cracks, deflections and critical building elements, would provide more reliable and accurate results for the regional assessments. The analytical technique was used to develop a preliminary evaluation methodology for assessing seismic vulnerability of the respective structures. One of the main objectives is also to identify the buildings that are highly vulnerable to damage caused from inadequate seismic performance-response. Hence, the damage scores obtained from the derived vulnerability functions will be used to categorize the evaluated buildings as “stabile”, “intermediate”, and “unstable”. The vulnerability functions are generated based on the basic damage inducing parameters, namely number of stories (S), lateral stiffness (LS), capacity curve of total building structure (CCBS), interstory drift (IS) and overhang ratio (OR).

Keywords: vulnerability, ductility, seismic microzone, ductility, energy efficiency

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Authors: V. Mathad, S. Shivprasad, P. Shivsharannappa, M. K. Patil

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Introduction: Non-communicable diseases are emerging diseases in India. Government of India launched National Programme for Prevention and Control of Cardiovascular Diseases, Cancer and Stroke (NPCDCS) during the year 2008. The aim of the programme was to reduce the burden of non communicable diseases by health promotion and prompt treatment. Objective: The present study was intended to assess the impact of National Program for prevention and control of Cardiovascular Diseases, Diabetes, Cancer and Stroke Programme on biochemical and physiological factors influencing Type 2 diabetes in Kalaburagi District. Material and Method: NCD Clinic was established at District Hospital during April 2016. All the patients attending District Hospital Kalaburagi above the age of 30 years are screened for Non Communicable Diseases under NPCDCS Programme. A total sample of 7447 patients attending NCD Clinic situated at Kalaburagi district was assessed in this study. Pre structured and pretested schedule seeking information was obtained from all the patients by the counselor working under NPCDCS programme. All the Patients attending District Hospital were screened for Diabetes using Glucometer at NCD clinic. The suspected cases were further confirmed through Biochemical investigations like Fasting Blood glucose, HBA1c, Urine Glucose, Kidney Function test. SPSS 20 version was used for analysis of data. Chi square test, P values and odds ratio was used to study the association of factors. Results: A Total of 7447 patients attended NCD clinic during the year 2017-18 were analyzed, Diabetes was seen among 3028 individuals were as comorbidities along with Hypertension was seen among 757 individuals. The mean age of the population was 50 ± 2.84. 3440(46.2%) were males whereas Female constituted 4007(53.8%) of population. The incidence and prevalence of Diabetes being 8.6 and 12.8 respectively. Diabetes was more commonly seen during the age group of 40 to 69 years. Diabetes was significantly associated with Age group 40 to 69 years, obesity and female gender (p < 0.05). The risk of developing Hypertension and comorbidity conditions of hypertension and Diabetes was 1.224 and 1.305 times higher among males, whereas the risk of diabetes was 1.127 higher among females as compared to males. Conclusion: The screening for NCD has significantly increased after launching of NPCDCS programme. NCD was significantly associated with obesity, female gender, increased age as well as comorbid conditions like hypertension and tuberculosis.

Keywords: non-communicable diseases, NPCDCS programme, type 2 Diabetes, physiological factors

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Authors: Sukhvinder Kaur, Ashok Agarwal

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Background: For the first time in 2009, India was able to generate estimates of HIV incidence (the number of new HIV infections per year). Analysis of epidemic projections helped in revealing that the number of new annual HIV infections in India had declined by more than 50% during the last decade (GOI Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, 2010). Then, National AIDS Control Organisation (NACO) planned to scale up its efforts in generating projections through epidemiological analysis and modelling by taking recent available sources of evidence such as HIV Sentinel Surveillance (HSS), India Census data and other critical data sets. Recently, NACO generated current round of HIV estimates-2012 through globally recommended tool “Spectrum Software” and came out with the estimates for adult HIV prevalence, annual new infections, number of people living with HIV, AIDS-related deaths and treatment needs. State level prevalence and incidence projections produced were used to project consequences of the epidemic in spectrum. In presence of HIV estimates generated at state level in India by NACO, USIAD funded PIPPSE project under the leadership of NACO undertook the estimations and projections to district level using same Spectrum software. In 2011, adult HIV prevalence in one of the high prevalent States, Maharashtra was 0.42% ahead of the national average of 0.27%. Considering the heterogeneity of HIV epidemic between districts, two districts of Maharashtra – Thane and Mumbai were selected to estimate and project the number of People-Living-with-HIV/AIDS (PLHIV), HIV-prevalence among adults and annual new HIV infections till 2017. Methodology: Inputs in spectrum included demographic data from Census of India since 1980 and sample registration system, programmatic data on ‘Alive and on ART (adult and children)’,‘Mother-Baby pairs under PPTCT’ and ‘High Risk Group (HRG)-size mapping estimates’, surveillance data from various rounds of HSS, National Family Health Survey–III, Integrated Biological and Behavioural Assessment and Behavioural Sentinel Surveillance. Major Findings: Assuming current programmatic interventions in these districts, an estimated decrease of 12% points in Thane and 31% points in Mumbai among new infections in HRGs and migrants is observed from 2011 by 2017. Conclusions: Project also validated decrease in HIV new infection among one of the high risk groups-FSWs using program cohort data since 2012 to 2016. Though there is a decrease in HIV prevalence and new infections in Thane and Mumbai, further decrease is possible if appropriate programme response, strategies and interventions are envisaged for specific target groups based on this evidence. Moreover, evidence need to be validated by other estimation/modelling techniques; and evidence can be generated for other districts of the state, where HIV prevalence is high and reliable data sources are available, to understand the epidemic within the local context.

Keywords: HIV sentinel surveillance, high risk groups, projections, new infections

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Authors: Raif Parlakkaya, Ahmet Diken, Erkan Kara

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This paper examines the relationship between corporate governance rating and stock prices of 26 Turkish firms listed in Turkish stock exchange (Borsa Istanbul) by using panel data analysis over five-year period. The paper also investigates the stock performance of firms with governance rating with regards to the market portfolio (i.e. BIST 100 Index) both prior and after governance scoring began. The empirical results show that there is no relation between corporate governance rating and stock prices when using panel data for annual variation in both rating score and stock prices. Further analysis indicates surprising results that while the selected firms outperform the market significantly prior to rating, the same performance does not continue afterwards.

Keywords: corporate governance, stock price, performance, panel data analysis

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Authors: Wilson Handoko, Farshid Pahlevani, Isha Singla, Himanish Kumar, Veena Sahajwalla

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Aluminium bronze alloys are well known for their superior abrasion, tensile strength and non-magnetic properties, due to the co-presence of iron (Fe) and aluminium (Al) as alloying elements and have been commonly used in many industrial applications. However, continuous exposure to the marine environment will accelerate the risk of a tendency to Al bronze alloys parts failures. Although a higher level of corrosion resistance properties can be achieved by modifying its elemental composition, it will come at a price through the complex manufacturing process and increases the risk of reducing the ductility of Al bronze alloy. In this research, the use of ironmaking slag and waste plastic as the input source for surface modification of Al bronze alloy was implemented. Microstructural analysis conducted using polarised light microscopy and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) that is equipped with energy dispersive spectroscopy (EDS). An electrochemical corrosion test was carried out through Tafel polarisation method and calculation of protection efficiency against the base-material was determined. Results have indicated that uniform modified surface which is as the result of selective diffusion process, has enhanced corrosion resistance properties up to 12.67%. This approach has opened a new opportunity to access various industrial utilisations in commercial scale through minimising the dependency on natural resources by transforming waste sources into the protective coating in environmentally friendly and cost-effective ways.

Keywords: aluminium bronze, waste-based surface modification, tafel polarisation, corrosion resistance

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Authors: Amir Ikram, Faisal Ijaz, Qin Su

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The empirical study was undertaken to explore the determinants of non-performing loans (NPLs) of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) sector held by the commercial banks. Primary data was collected through well-structured survey questionnaire from credit analysts/bankers of 42 branches of 9 commercial banks, operating in the district of Lahore (Pakistan), for 2014-2015. Selective descriptive analysis and Pearson chi-square technique were used to illustrate and evaluate the significance of different variables affecting NPLs. Branch age, duration of the loan, and credit policy were found to be significant determinants of NPLs. The study proposes that bank-specific and SME-specific microeconomic variables directly influence NPLs, while macroeconomic factors act as intermediary variables. Framework exhibiting causal nexus of NPLs was also drawn on the basis of empirical findings. The results elaborate various origins of NPLs and suggest that they are primarily instigated by the loan sanctioning procedure of the financial institution. The paper also underlines the risk management practices adopted by the bank at branch level to averse the risk of loan default. Empirical investigation of bank-specific microeconomic factors of NPLs with respect to Pakistan’s economy is the novelty of the study. Broader strategic policy implications are provided for credit analysts and entrepreneurs.

Keywords: commercial banks, microeconomic factors, non-performing loans, small and medium enterprises

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Authors: Geday Elias, Montaigne Etienne, Padilla Martine, Tollossa Degefa

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Smallholder farmers’ participation in agricultural value chain identified as a pathway to get out of poverty trap in Ethiopia. The smallholder dairy activities have a huge potential in poverty reduction through enhancing income, achieving food and nutritional security in the country. However, much less is known about the effects of smallholder’s participation in milk value chain on household food security and nutrition. This paper therefore, aims at evaluating the effects of smallholders’ participation in milk value chain on household food security taking in to account the four pillars of food security measurements (availability, access, utilization and stability). Using a semi-structured interview, a cross sectional farm household data collected from a randomly selected sample of 333 households (170 in Amhara and 163 in Oromia regions).Binary logit and propensity score matching( PSM) models are employed to examine the mechanisms through which smallholder’s participation in the milk value chain affects household food security where crop production, per capita calorie intakes, diet diversity score, and food insecurity access scale are used to measure food availability, access, utilization and stability respectively. Our findings reveal from 333 households, only 34.5% of smallholder farmers are participated in the milk value chain. Limited access to inputs and services, limited access to inputs markets and high transaction costs are key constraints for smallholders’ limited access to the milk value chain. To estimate the true average participation effects of milk value chain for participated households, the outcome variables (food security) of farm households who participated in milk value chain are compared with the outcome variables if the farm households had not participated. The PSM analysis reveals smallholder’s participation in milk value chain has a significant positive effect on household income, food security and nutrition. Smallholder farmers who are participated in milk chain are better by 15 quintals crops production and 73 percent of per capita calorie intakes in food availability and access respectively than smallholder farmers who are not participated in the market. Similarly, the participated households are better in dietary quality by 112 percents than non-participated households. Finally, smallholders’ who are participated in milk value chain are better in reducing household vulnerability to food insecurity by an average of 130 percent than non participated households. The results also shows income earned from milk value chain participation contributed to reduce capital’s constraints of the participated households’ by higher farm income and total household income by 5164 ETB and 14265 ETB respectively. This study therefore, confirms the potential role of smallholders’ participation in food value chain to get out of poverty trap through improving rural household income, food security and nutrition. Therefore, identified the determinants of smallholder participation in milk value chain and the participation effects on food security in the study areas are worth considering as a positive knock for policymakers and development agents to tackle the poverty trap in the study area in particular and in the country in general.

Keywords: effects, food security and nutrition, milk, participation, smallholders, value chain

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Authors: ShuYing Chung, Minchuan Huang, Iping Chen

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Taking the medical staff in an emergency ward of a medical center in Central Taiwan as the research object, the questionnaire data were collected by anonymous and voluntary reporting methods with structured questionnaire to explore the actual situation, willingness and attitude of organ donation. Only 80 valid questionnaires were collected. Among the 8 questions, the average correct rate was 5.9 + 1.2, and the correct rate was 73.13%. The willingness of organ donation that 7.5% of the people are not willing; 92.5% of the people are willing, of which 62.5% have considered but have not yet decided; 21.3% are willing but have not signed the consent of organ donation; They have signed the consent of organ donation 8.7%. The average total score (standard deviation) of attitude towards organ donation was 36.2. There is no significant difference between the demographic variables and the awareness and willingness of organ donation, but there is a significant correlation between the marital status and the attitude of organ donation.

Keywords: clinical psychology, organ donation, doctors affecting psychological disorders, commitment

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Authors: Delphine Duval, Morgan Mangeas, Charlie Huveneers, Adam Barnett, Laurent Vigliola

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The global number of shark bites has increased over the past four decades with, however, high regional variability both in space and time. A systematic review, aligned with the 2020 PRISMA guidelines, explored the peer-reviewed literature published between 1960 and 2023 to identify factors potentially explaining trends in human-shark interactions. Results revealed that variations in the frequency of human-shark interactions could be explained by a plethora of factors, including changes in prey availability, environmental conditions, human and shark population density and behavior, as well as habitat destruction. However, to our best knowledge, only five studies have conducted statistical assessments of the relative contribution of these factors. The increased number in human-shark interactions and the frequent clusters of shark bites within short timeframes offer opportunities to test the causative factors that may explain trends in unprovoked shark bites. it study aims to evaluate the impact of marine protected areas (MPAs) on the number of human-shark interactions, using data from the Global Shark Attack File and the World Database on Protected Areas. Results indicate contrasting effects of MPAs at different spatial scales. Enhancing our understanding of the factors contributing to shark bites is essential for improving risk reduction policies for humans and conservation plans for shark populations.

Keywords: unprovoked shark interactions, marine protected areas, attack risk, human-wildlife interaction

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Authors: Faheem Ur Rehman, Muhammad Khalil Khan, Miao Qing

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This study investigated the asymmetric links and portfolio strategies between green bonds and the markets of three different cryptocurrencies, i.e., green, Islamic, and conventional, using data from January 1, 2018, to April 8, 2022, and employing asymmetric TVP-VAR model to quantify risk spillovers in the network analysis. In addition, we use the minimum variance, minimum correlation, and minimum connectedness methodologies to assess the portfolio implications. The results of the asymmetric dynamic connectedness index (TCI) model show that by adopting cryptocurrencies for digital finance, risk spillovers are found to be reduced. The findings of net directional connectedness demonstrate that during the study period, green bonds consistently get return spillovers from all other network variables. Positive return spillovers are bigger in magnitude than negative ones. These results imply that the influence of the green bond market on the cryptocurrency markets is decreasing. Positive return spillovers generate higher connectedness values for (HG, BNB, and TRX) coins and persistent net recipients in the specific network. On the other hand, Cardano and ADA coins are persistent net transmitters in the system. XLM and MIOTA's responsibilities shift over time, and there is evidence of asymmetry when both positive and negative returns are considered. According to the pairwise portfolio weights, BNB vs. BTC has the largest portfolio weights in the system, followed by BNB vs. Ethereum, suggesting the best investment strategies in the network.

Keywords: asymmetric TVP-VAR, global sustainable index, cryptocurrency, portfolios

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Authors: Dipak Subedi, Anil Giri, Christine Whitt, Tia McDonald

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This study aims to understand the impact of the pandemic on the overall economic well-being of the agricultural sector of the United States. The two key metrics used to examine the economic well-being are the bankruptcy rate of the U.S. farm operations and the operating profit margin. One of the primary reasons for farm operations (in the U.S.) to file for bankruptcy is continuous negative profit or a significant decrease in profit. The pandemic caused significant supply and demand shocks in the domestic market. Furthermore, the ongoing trade disruptions, especially with China, also impacted the prices of agricultural commodities. The significantly reduced demand for ethanol and closure of meat processing plants affected both livestock and crop producers. This study uses data from courts to examine the bankruptcy rate over time of U.S. farm operations. Preliminary results suggest there wasn’t an increase in farm operations filing for bankruptcy in 2020. This was most likely because of record high Government payments to producers in 2020. The Federal Government made direct payments of more than $45 billion in 2020. One commonly used economic metric to measure farm profitability is the operating profit margin (OPM). Operating profit margin measures profitability as a share of the total value of production and government payments. The Economic Research Service of the United States Department of Agriculture defines a farm operation to be in a) a high-risk zone if the OPM is less than 10 percent and b) a low-risk zone if the OPM is higher than 25 percent. For this study, OPM was calculated for small, medium, and large-scale farm operations using the data from the Agriculture Resource Management Survey (OPM). Results show that except for small family farms, the share of farms in high-risk zone decreased in 2020 compared to the most recent non-pandemic year, 2019. This was most likely due to higher commodity prices at the end of 2020 and record-high government payments. Further investigation suggests a lower share of smaller farm operations receiving lower average government payments resulting in a large share (over 70 percent) being in the critical zone. This study should be of interest to multiple stakeholders, including policymakers across the globe, as it shows the resilience of the U.S. agricultural system as well as (some) impact of government payments.

Keywords: U.S. farm sector, COVID-19, operating profit margin, farm bankruptcy, ag finance, government payments to the farm sector

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Authors: Chung-Yuan Wang, Kai-Chun Lee, Min-Hung Wang, Yu-Ren Chen, Hung-Sheng Lin, Sen-Shan Fan

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Taiwan National Health Insurance (NHI) was launched in 1995. It is an important social welfare policy in Taiwan. Regardless of the diversified social and economic status, universal coverage of NHI was assured. In order to regain better self-care performance, stroke people received in-patient and out-patient rehabilitation. Though NHI limited the rehabilitation frequency to one per day, the cost of rehabilitation still increased rapidly. Through the intensive rehabilitation during the post-stroke rehabilitation golden period, stroke patients might decrease their disability and shorten the rehabilitation period. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate the effect of intensive post-acute stroke rehabilitation in hospital under per diem payment. This study was started from 2014/03/01. The stroke patients who were admitted to our hospital or medical center were indicated to the study. The neurologists would check his modified Rankin Scale (mRS). Only patients with their mRS score between 2 and 4 were included to the study. Patients with unclear consciousness, unstable medical condition, unclear stroke onset date and no willing for 3 weeks in-patient intensive rehabilitation were excluded. After the physiatrist’s systemic evaluation, the subjects received intensive rehabilitation programs. The frequency of rehabilitation was thrice per day. Physical therapy, occupational therapy and speech/swallowing therapy were included in the programs for the needs of the stroke patients. Activity daily life performance (Barthel Index) and functional balance ability (Berg Balance Scale) were used to measure the training effect. During 3/1 to 5/31, thirteen subjects (five male and eight female) were included. Seven subjects were aged below 60. Three subjects were aged over 70. Most of the subjects (seven subjects) received intensive post-stroke rehabilitation for three weeks. Three subjects drop out from the programs and went back home respectively after receiving only 7, 10, and 13 days rehabilitation. Among these 13 subjects, nine of them got improvement in activity daily life performance (Barthel Index score). Ten of them got improvement in functional balance ability (Berg Balance Scale). The intensive post-acute stroke rehabilitation did help stroke patients promote their health in our study. Not only their functional performance improved, but also their self-confidence improved. Furthermore, their family also got better health status. Stroke rehabilitation under per diem payment was noted in long-term care institution in developed countries. Over 95% populations in Taiwan were supported under the Taiwan's National Health Insurance system, but there was no national long-term care insurance system. Most of the stroke patients in Taiwan live with his family and continue their rehabilitation programs from out-patient department. This pilot study revealed the effect of intensive post-acute stroke rehabilitation in hospital under per diem payment. The number of the subjects and the study period were limited. Thus, further study will be needed.

Keywords: rehabilitation, post-acute stroke, per diem payment, NHI

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