Search results for: λ-statistical cluster points

Authors: Pierre van Tonder, Christoff Kruger

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Modular concrete elements are used for retaining walls to provide lateral support. Depending on the retaining wall layout, these precast panels may be interlocking and may be tied into the soil backfill via geosynthetic strips. This study investigates the ultimate pull-out load increase, which is possible by adding varied diameter supplementary reinforcement through embedded anchor loops within concrete retaining wall panels. Full-scale panels used in practice have four embedded anchor points. However, only one anchor loop was embedded in the center of the experimental panels. The experimental panels had the same thickness but a smaller footprint (600mm x 600mm x 140mm) area than the full-sized panels to accommodate the space limitations of the laboratory and experimental setup. The experimental panels were also cast without any bending reinforcement as would typically be obtained in the full-scale panels. The exclusion of these reinforcements was purposefully neglected to evaluate the impact of a single bar reinforcement through the center of the anchor loops. The reinforcement bars had of 8 mm, 10 mm, 12 mm, and 12 mm. 30 samples of concrete panels with embedded anchor loops were tested. The panels were supported on the edges and the anchor loops were subjected to an increasing tensile force using an Instron piston. Failures that occurred were loop failures and panel failures and a mixture thereof. There was an increase in ultimate load vs. increasing diameter as expected, but this relationship persisted until the reinforcement diameter exceeded 10 mm. For diameters larger than 10 mm, the ultimate failure load starts to decrease due to the dependency of the reinforcement bond strength to the concrete matrix. Overall, the reinforced panels showed a 14 to 23% increase in the factor of safety. Using anchor loops of 66kN ultimate load together with Y10 steel reinforcement with bent ends had shown the most promising results in reducing concrete panel pull-out failure. The Y10 reinforcement had shown, on average, a 24% increase in ultimate load achieved. Previous research has investigated supplementary reinforcement around the anchor loops. This paper extends this investigation by evaluating supplementary reinforcement placed through the panel anchor loops.

Keywords: supplementary reinforcement, anchor loops, retaining panels, reinforced concrete, pull-out failure

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Authors: Nora Geczy

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In today’s architectural practice, during the process of designing public, educational, healthcare and cultural space, human-centered architectural designs helping spatial orientation, safe space usage and the appropriate spatial sequence of actions are gaining increasing importance. Related to the methodology of designing public buildings, several scientific experiments in spatial recognition, spatial analysis and spatial psychology with regard to the components of space producing mental and physiological effects have been going on at the Department of Architectural Design and the Interdisciplinary Student Workshop (IDM) at the Széchenyi István University, Győr since 2013. Defining the creation of preventive, anticipated spatial design and the architectural tools of spatial comfort of public buildings and their practical usability are in the limelight of our research. In the experiments applying eye-tracking cameras, we studied the way public spaces are used, especially concentrating on the characteristics of spatial behaviour, orientation, recognition, the sequence of actions, and space usage. Along with the role of mental maps, human perception, and interaction problems in public spaces (at railway stations, galleries, and educational institutions), we analyzed the spatial situations influencing psychological and ergonomic factors. We also analyzed the eye movements of the experimental subjects in dynamic situations, in spatial procession, using stairs and corridors. We monitored both the consequences and the distorting effects of the ocular dominance of the right eye on spatial orientation; we analyzed the gender-based differences of women and men’s orientation, stress-inducing spaces, spaces affecting concentration and the spatial situation influencing territorial behaviour. Based on these observations, we collected the components of creating public interior spaces, which -according to our theory- contribute to the optimal usability of public spaces. We summed up our research in criteria for design, including 10 points. Our further goals are testing design principles needed for optimizing orientation and space usage, their discussion, refinement, and practical usage.

Keywords: architecture, eye-tracking, human-centered spatial design, public interior spaces, visual perception

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Authors: Chukwu Fidelis Ndubuisi, Madufor Michael Ozims, Asogwa Vivian Ndidiamaka, Egenamba Juliet Ngozi, Okonkwo Stephen C., Kamah Chukwudi David

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Deflection of the vertical is a quantity used in reducing geodetic measurements related to geoidal networks to the ellipsoidal plane; and it is essential in Geoid modeling processes. Computing the deflection of the vertical component of a point in a given area is necessary in evaluating the standard errors along north-south and east-west direction. Using combined approach for the determination of deflection of the vertical component provides improved result but labor intensive without appropriate method. Least square method is a method that makes use of redundant observation in modeling a given sets of problem that obeys certain geometric condition. This research work is aimed to computing the deflection of vertical component of Owerri West local government area of Imo State using geometric method as field technique. In this method combination of Global Positioning System on static mode and precise leveling observation were utilized in determination of geodetic coordinate of points established within the study area by GPS observation and the orthometric heights through precise leveling. By least square using Matlab programme; the estimated deflections of vertical component parameters for the common station were -0.0286 and -0.0001 arc seconds for the north-south and east-west components respectively. The associated standard errors of the processed vectors of the network were computed. The computed standard errors of the North-south and East-west components were 5.5911e-005 and 1.4965e-004 arc seconds, respectively. Therefore, including the derived component of deflection of the vertical to the ellipsoidal model will yield high observational accuracy since an ellipsoidal model is not tenable due to its far observational error in the determination of high quality job. It is important to include the determined deflection of the vertical component for Owerri West Local Government in Imo State, Nigeria.

Keywords: deflection of vertical, ellipsoidal height, least square, orthometric height

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Authors: Hsin-Chieh Lee, Fen-Ling Kuo, Jui-Chi Lin

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Background: Upper extremity functional impairment that occurs after stroke includes hemiplegia, synergy movement, muscle hypertonicity, and somatosensory impairment, which result in inefficient and inaccurate movement. Robot-assisted rehabilitation is an intensive training approach that is effective in sensorimotor and hand function recovery. However, these systems mostly focused on the proximal part of the upper limb rather than the distal part. The device used in our study was Gloreha Sinfonia, which focuses on the distal part of the upper limb and uses a dynamic support system to facilitate the whole limb function. The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of robot-assisted therapy (RT) with Gloreha device on sensorimotor, and ADLs in patients with stroke. Method: Patients with stroke (N=25) participated AB or BA (A = 12 RT sessions and B = 12 conventional therapy (CT) sessions) for 6 weeks (60 min at each session, twice a week), with 1-month break for washout period. The performance of the patients was assessed by a blinded assessor at 4 time points (pretest 1, posttest 1, pretest 2, posttest 2) which including the Fugl–Meyer Assessment-upper extremity (FMA-UE), box and block test, electromyography of the extensor digitorum communis (EDC) and brachioradialis, a grip dynamometer for motor evaluation; Semmes–Weinstein hand monofilament and Revision of the Nottingham Sensory Assessment for sensory evaluation; and the Modified Barthel Index (MBI) for assessing the ADL ability. Result: RT group significantly improved FMA-UE proximal scores (p = 0.038), FMA-UE total scores (p = 0.046), and MBI (p = 0.030). The EDC exhibited higher efficiency during the small block grasping task in the RT group than in the CT group (p = 0.050). Conclusions: RT with the Gloreha device might lead to beneficial effects on arm motor function, ADL ability, and EDC muscle recruitment efficacy in patients with subacute to chronic stroke.

Keywords: activities of daily living, hand function, robotic rehabilitation, stroke

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Authors: A. Yu-Chen Chien, B. Ying-Ju Su

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Greenway is a type of linear park which links the planar parklands and connects the open spaces. In the urban environment, except for providing open spaces with recreational function as well as effectively improve the appearance of the surrounding environment, greenway and parkland also creates benefits to the social and psychological aspects of human. In 2014, the statistics of The Ministry of Home Affairs show that citizens in Taichung enjoy the green area at an average of 4.27 square kilometers per person. How to use the existing green space system effectively and enhance the quality of leisure life thus become the major issues today. The study here points out that greenway and parkland and other open spaces are closely related to the daily life of urban residents. Whether the operation could be executed in accordance with the design is our major concern. To explore the issue, we implemented the Post-Occupancy Evaluation of Taiyuan Greenway in Taichung City. In 1956, Taichung city carried out the urban plan according to Howard’s concept about “Garden City” and built the Taiyuan greenway to restrain the urban expansion. 50-year past, due to the population growth and new demands, the government started to reconstruct the program. It is a three stage modification project of “The Townspace Renaissance project in Taiwan” since 2009, of which the greenway construction is the main point. In this research, we mainly focus on the third stage of this program to investigate the user’s preference and degree of satisfaction based on the Post-Occupancy Evaluation about the finished, unfinished, and undergoing construction sectors as well as facilities. We collected and analyzed the data based on the questionnaires and explored the possible facts that might have affected the degree of satisfaction about the greenway modification project based on the chi-square test. We hope to inspect the purpose of the demonstration projects and provide reference to the Taichung government for the modification planning and the greenway design in the future.

Keywords: greenway, landscape greenway, post-occupancy evaluation, Taichung city

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Authors: Samuel J. Ahmad, Michael Zhu, Andrew J. Kobets

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Segmentation tools continue to advance, evolving from manual methods to automated contouring technologies utilizing convolutional neural networks. These techniques have evaluated ventricular and hemorrhagic volumes in the past but may be applied in novel ways to assess posterior fossa-associated pathologies such as Chiari malformations. Herein, we summarize literature pertaining to segmentation in the context of this and other posterior fossa-based diseases such as trigeminal neuralgia, hemifacial spasm, and posterior fossa syndrome. A literature search for volumetric analysis of the posterior fossa identified 27 papers where semi-automated, automated, manual segmentation, linear measurement-based formulas, and the Cavalieri estimator were utilized. These studies produced superior data than older methods utilizing formulas for rough volumetric estimations. The most commonly used segmentation technique was semi-automated segmentation (12 studies). Manual segmentation was the second most common technique (7 studies). Automated segmentation techniques (4 studies) and the Cavalieri estimator (3 studies), a point-counting method that uses a grid of points to estimate the volume of a region, were the next most commonly used techniques. The least commonly utilized segmentation technique was linear measurement-based formulas (1 study). Semi-automated segmentation produced accurate, reproducible results. However, it is apparent that there does not exist a single semi-automated software, open source or otherwise, that has been widely applied to the posterior fossa. Fully-automated segmentation via such open source software as FSL and Freesurfer produced highly accurate posterior fossa segmentations. Various forms of segmentation have been used to assess posterior fossa pathologies and each has its advantages and disadvantages. According to our results, semi-automated segmentation is the predominant method. However, atlas-based automated segmentation is an extremely promising method that produces accurate results. Future evolution of segmentation technologies will undoubtedly yield superior results, which may be applied to posterior fossa related pathologies. Medical professionals will save time and effort analyzing large sets of data due to these advances.

Keywords: chiari, posterior fossa, segmentation, volumetric

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Authors: Cesar Leines

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The social effects of the pandemic are significant and diverse, most of those effects have widened the gap of economic inequality. Without a doubt, each country faces difficulties associated with the strengths and weaknesses of its own institutions that can address these causes and consequences. Around the world, pricing practices that have no connection to production costs have been used extensively in numerous markets beyond those relating to the supply of essential goods and services, and although it is not unlawful to adjust pricing considering the increased demand of certain products, shortages and disruption of supply chains, illegitimate pricing practices may arise and these tend to transfer wealth from consumers to producers that affect the purchasing power of the former, making people worse off. High prices with no objective justification indicate a poor state of the competitive process in any market and the impact of those underlying competition issues leading to inefficiency is increased when national competition agencies are weak and ineffective in enforcing competition in law and policy. It has been observed that in those countries where competition authorities are perceived as weak or ineffective, price increases of a wide range of products and services were more significant during the pandemic than those price increases observed in countries where the perception of the effectiveness of the competition agency is high. When a perception is created of a highly effective competition authority, one which enforces competition law and its non-enforcement activities result in the fulfillment of its substantive functions of protecting competition as the means to create efficient markets, the price rise observed in markets under its jurisdiction is low. A case study focused on the effectiveness of the national competition agency in Mexico (COFECE) points to institutional weakness as one of the causes leading to excessive pricing. There are many factors that contribute to its low effectiveness and which, in turn, have led to a very significant price hike, potentiated by the pandemic. This paper contributes to the discussion of these factors and proposes different steps that overall help COFECE or any other competition agency to increase the perception of effectiveness for the benefit of the consumers.

Keywords: agency effectiveness, competition, institutional weakness, price gouging

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Authors: Berceste Gülçin Özdemir

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The representation of women characters in cinema has been discussed for centuries. In cinema where dominant narrative codes prevail and scopophilic views exist over women characters, passive stereotypes of women are observed in the representation of women characters. In films shot from a woman’s point of view in Turkish Cinema and even in the films outside the main stream in which the stories of women characters are told, the fact that women characters are discussed on the basis of feminist film theories triggers the question: ‘Are feminist films produced in Turkish Cinema?’ The spaces that are used in the representation of women characters are observed to be used as spaces that convert characters into passive subjects on the basis of the space factor in the narrative. The representation of women characters in the possible surveillance spaces integrates the characters and compresses them in these spaces. In this study, narrative analysis was used to investigate women characters representation in the surveillance spaces. For the study framework, firstly a case study films are selected, and in the second level, women characters representations in surveillance spaces are argued by narrative analysis using feminist film theories. Two questions are argued with feminist film theories: ‘Why do especially women directors represent their female characters to viewers by representing them in surveillance spaces?’ and ‘Can this type of presentation contribute to the feminist film practice and become important with regard to feminist film theories?’ The representation of women characters in a passive and observed way in surveillance spaces of the narrative reveals the questioning of also the discourses of films outside of the main stream. As films that produce alternative discourses and reveal different cinematic languages, those outside the main stream are expected to bring other points of view also to the representation of women characters in spaces. These questionings are selected as the baseline and Turkish films such as Watch Tower and Mustang, directed by women, were examined. This examination paves the way for discussions regarding the women characters in surveillance spaces. Outcomes can be argued from the viewpoint of representation in the genre by feminist film theories. In the context of feminist film theories and feminist film practice, alternatives should be found that can corporally reveal the existence of women in both the representation of women characters in spaces and in the usage of the space factor.

Keywords: feminist film theory, representation, space, women directors

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Authors: Nicolas M. Beleski, Gustavo A. G. Lugo

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Robotic agents are taking more and increasingly important roles in society. In order to make these robots and agents more autonomous and efficient, their systems have grown to be considerably complex and convoluted. This growth in complexity has led recent researchers to investigate forms to explain the AI behavior behind these systems in search for more trustworthy interactions. A current problem in explainable AI is the inner workings with the logic inference process and how to conduct a sensibility analysis of the process of valuation and alteration of beliefs. In a social HRI (human-robot interaction) setup, theory of mind is crucial to ease the intentionality gap and to achieve that we should be able to infer over observed human behaviors, such as cases of cognitive dissonance. One specific case inspired in human cognition is the role emotions play on our belief system and the effects caused when observed behavior does not match the expected outcome. In such scenarios emotions can make a person wrongly assume the antecedent P for an observed consequent Q, and as a result, incorrectly assert that P is true. This form of cognitive dissonance where an unproven cause is taken as truth induces changes in the belief base which can directly affect future decisions and actions. If we aim to be inspired by human thoughts in order to apply levels of theory of mind to these artificial agents, we must find the conditions to replicate these observable cognitive mechanisms. To achieve this, a computational architecture is proposed to model the modulation effect emotions have on the belief system and how it affects logic inference process and consequently the decision making of an agent. To validate the model, an experiment based on the prisoner's dilemma is currently under development. The hypothesis to be tested involves two main points: how emotions, modeled as internal argument strength modulators, can alter inference outcomes, and how can explainable outcomes be produced under specific forms of cognitive dissonance.

Keywords: cognitive architecture, cognitive dissonance, explainable ai, sensitivity analysis, theory of mind

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Authors: Avrokomi Zavitsanou, Spiros Papadopoulos, Theofanis Alexandridis

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This paper presents the research project ‘Colour & Travel’, which is co-funded by the European Union and national resources through the Operational Programme “Competitiveness, Entrepreneurship and Innovation” 2014-2020, under the Single RTDI State Aid Action "RESEARCH - CREATE - INNOVATE". The research project proposes the design of an innovative, playful framework for exploring a variety of travel destinations and creating personalised travel narratives, aiming to entertain, educate, and promote culture and tourism. Gamification of the cultural and touristic environment can enhance its experiential, multi-sensory aspects and broaden the perception of the traveler. The latter's involvement in creating and shaping his personal travel narrations and the possibility of sharing it with others can offer him an alternative, more binding way of getting acquainted with a place. In particular, the paper presents the design of an infrastructure: (a) for the development of interactive travel guides for mobile devices, where sites with specific points of interest will be recommended, with which the user can interact in playful ways and then create his personal travel narratives, (b) for the development of innovative games within virtual reality environment, where the interaction will be offered while the user is moving within the virtual environment; and (c) for an online application where the content will be offered through the browser and the modern 3D imaging technologies (WebGL). The technological products that will be developed within the proposed project can strengthen important sectors of economic and social life, such as trade, tourism, exploitation and promotion of the cultural environment, creative industries, etc. The final applications delivered at the end of the project will guarantee an improved level of service for visitors and will be a useful tool for content creators with increased adaptability, expansibility, and applicability in many regions of Greece and abroad. This paper aims to present the research project by referencing the state of the art and the methodological scheme, ending with a brief reflection on the expected outcome in terms of results.

Keywords: gamification, culture, tourism, AR, VR, applications

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Authors: Klara Strecker

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During times of globalization, socioeconomic systems have become connected across the world through global supply chains. As a result, consumption and production locations have increasingly become spatially decoupled. This decoupling leads to complex entanglements of systems and sustainability challenges across distances -entanglements which can be conceptualized as telecouplings. Through telecouplings, people and environments across the world have become closely connected, bringing challenges as well as opportunities. Some argue that telecoupling dynamics started taking shape during times of colonization when resources were first traded across the world. An example of such a telecoupling is that of the rose. Every third rose sold in Europe is grown in Kenya and enters the European market through the Dutch flower auction system. Many Kenyan farms are Dutch-owned, closely entangling Kenya and the Netherlands through the trade of roses. Furthermore, the globalization of the flower industry and the resulting shift of production away from the Netherlands and towards Kenya has led to significant changes in the Dutch horticulture sector. However, the sustainability effects of this rose telecoupling is limited neither to the horticulture sector nor to the Netherlands and Kenya. Alongside the flow of roses between these countries come complex financial, knowledge-based, and regulatory flows. The rose telecoupling also creates spillover effects to other countries, such as Ethiopia, and other industries, such as Kenyan tourism. Therefore, telecoupling dynamics create complex entanglements that cut across sectors, environments, communities, and countries, which makes effectively governing and managing telecouplings and their sustainability implications challenging. Indeed, sustainability can no longer be studied in spatial and temporal isolation. This paper aims to map the rose telecoupling’s complex environmental and social interactions to identify points of tension guiding sustainability-targeted interventions. Mapping these interactions will provide a more holistic understanding of the sustainability challenges involved in the Dutch-Kenyan rose trade. This interdisciplinary telecoupling approach reframes and integrates interdisciplinary knowledge about the rose trade between the Netherlands, Kenya, and beyond.

Keywords: Dutch-Kenyan rose trade, globalization, socio-ecological system, sustainability, telecoupling

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Authors: Naziema B. Jappie

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Internationalization is very complex and multifaceted and has implications for the entire university sector, and the larger community which it serves. Higher education strategic plans require sustainability on all levels of academic engagement and internationalization contributes to the sustainability because of the global competition but, at the same time, ensures diversity on campuses. Universities all over the world are increasingly recognizing the challenges of globalization and the pressures towards internationalization. The past 25 years of internationalization has faded away, and new challenges have emerged. Although internationalization remains a central strategic objective for all universities, for many leaders and education practitioners it has remained a confused concept. It has various interpretations, and it intersects with numerous other national agendas in higher education domain; it often builds upon narrow notions limited to one of its facets –attracting international student fees for financial sustainability or for ensuring a diverse campus culture. It is essential to have clear institutional views, but it is imperative that everyone reflects on the values and beliefs that underpin the internationalization of higher education and have a global focus. This paper draws together the international experience locally and globally to explore the emerging patterns of strategy and practice in internationalizing higher education. This will highlight some critical notions of how the concepts of internationalization and globalization in the context of higher education is understood by those who lead universities and what new challenges are being created as universities seek to become more international. Institutions cannot simply have bullet points in the strategic plan about recruitment of international students; there has to be a complete commitment to an international strategy of inclusivity. This paper will further examine the leadership styles that ensure transformation together with the goals set out for internationalization. The interviews with the senior leadership are in-depth semi-structured recorded interviews of approximately one-hour to learn about their institutional experiences, promotion, and enhancement of the value of internationalisation to the tertiary education sector and initiating discussions around adding the international relations dimension to the curriculum. This paper will address the issues relevant to the cross-border delivery of higher education. To ensure anonymity throughout this study, the interviewees are identified only by their institutions.

Keywords: challenges, globalization, higher education, internationalization, strategic focus

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Authors: Marine Reymond, Michael Descostes, Marie Muguet, Clemence Besancon, Martine Leermakers, Catherine Beaucaire, Sophie Billon, Patricia Patrier

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²²⁶Ra is one of the radionuclides resulting from the disintegration of ²³⁸U. Due to its half-life (1600 y) and its high specific activity (3.7 x 1010 Bq/g), ²²⁶Ra is found at the ultra-trace level in the natural environment (usually below 1 Bq/L, i.e. 10-13 mol/L). Because of its decay in ²²²Rn, a radioactive gas with a shorter half-life (3.8 days) which is difficult to control and dangerous for humans when inhaled, ²²⁶Ra is subject to a dedicated monitoring in surface waters especially in the context of uranium mining. In natural waters, radionuclides occur in dissolved, colloidal or particular forms. Due to the size of colloids, generally ranging between 1 nm and 1 µm and their high specific surface areas, the colloidal fraction could be involved in the transport of trace elements, including radionuclides in the environment. The colloidal fraction is not always easy to determine and few existing studies focus on ²²⁶Ra. In the present study, a complete multidisciplinary approach is proposed to assess the colloidal transport of ²²⁶Ra. It includes water sampling by conventional filtration (0.2µm) and the innovative Diffusive Gradient in Thin Films technique to measure the dissolved fraction (<10nm), from which the colloidal fraction could be estimated. Suspended matter in these waters were also sampled and characterized mineralogically by X-Ray Diffraction, infrared spectroscopy and scanning electron microscopy. All of these data, which were acquired on a rehabilitated former uranium mine, allowed to build a geochemical model using the geochemical calculation code PhreeqC to describe, as accurately as possible, the colloidal transport of ²²⁶Ra. Colloidal transport of ²²⁶Ra was found, for some of the sampling points, to account for up to 95% of the total ²²⁶Ra measured in water. Mineralogical characterization and associated geochemical modelling highlight the role of barite, a barium sulfate mineral well known to trap ²²⁶Ra into its structure. Barite was shown to be responsible for the colloidal ²²⁶Ra fraction despite the presence of kaolinite and ferrihydrite, which are also known to retain ²²⁶Ra by sorption.

Keywords: colloids, mining context, radium, transport

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Authors: Recep Gundogan, Turgay Dindaroglu, Hikmet Gunal, Mustafa Ulukavak, Ron Bingner

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A majority of total soil losses in agricultural areas could be attributed to ephemeral gullies caused by heavy rains in conventionally tilled fields; however, ephemeral gully erosion is often ignored in conventional soil erosion assessments. Ephemeral gullies are often easily filled from normal soil tillage operations, which makes capturing the existing ephemeral gullies in croplands difficult. This study was carried out to determine topographic features, including slope and aspect composite topographic index (CTI) and initiation points of gully channels, using images obtained from unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) images. The study area was located in Topcu stream watershed in the eastern Mediterranean Region, where intense rainfall events occur over very short time periods. The slope varied between 0.7 and 99.5%, and the average slope was 24.7%. The UAV (multi-propeller hexacopter) was used as the carrier platform, and images were obtained with the RGB camera mounted on the UAV. The digital terrain models (DTM) of Topçu stream micro catchment produced using UAV images and manual field Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements were compared to assess the accuracy of UAV based measurements. Eighty-one gully channels were detected in the study area. The mean slope and CTI values in the micro-catchment obtained from DTMs generated using UAV images were 19.2% and 3.64, respectively, and both slope and CTI values were lower than those obtained using GPS measurements. The total length and volume of the gully channels were 868.2 m and 5.52 m³, respectively. Topographic characteristics and information on ephemeral gully channels (location of initial point, volume, and length) were estimated with high accuracy using the UAV images. The results reveal that UAV-based measuring techniques can be used in lieu of existing GPS and total station techniques by using images obtained with high-resolution UAVs.

Keywords: aspect, compound topographic index, digital terrain model, initial gully point, slope, unmanned aerial vehicle

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Authors: Mohamed Salaheldien Mohamed Alayat, Ahmed Mohamed Elsoudany, Roaa Abdulghani Sroge, Bayan Muteb Aldhahwani

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Background: Neck pain is a common illness that could affect individual’s daily activities. Class IV laser with longer wavelength can stimulate tissues and penetrate more than the classic low-level laser therapy. Objectives: The aim of the study was to investigate the efficacy of class IV diode laser in the treatment of patients with chronic neck pain (CNP). Methods: Fifty-two patients participated and completed the study. Their mean age (SD) was 50.7 (6.2). Patients were randomized into two groups and treated with laser plus exercise (laser + EX) group and placebo laser plus exercise (PL+EX) group. Treatment was performed by Class IV laser in two phases; scanning and trigger point phases. Scanning to the posterior neck and shoulder girdle region with 4 J/cm2 with a total energy of 300 J applied to 75 cm2 in 4 minutes and 16 seconds. Eight trigger points on the posterior neck area were treated by 4 J/cm2 and the time of application was in 30 seconds. Both groups received exercise two times per week for 4 weeks. Exercises included range of motion, isometric, stretching, isotonic resisted exercises to the cervical extensors, lateral bending and rotators muscles with postural correction exercises. The measured variables were pain level using visual analogue scale (VAS), and neck functional activity using neck disability index (NDI) score. Measurements were taken at baseline and after 4 weeks of treatment. The level of statistical significance was set as p < 0.05. Results: There were significant decreases in post-treatment VAS and NDI in both groups as compared to baseline values. Laser + EX effectively decreased VAS (mean difference -6.5, p = 0.01) and NDI scores after (mean difference -41.3, p = 0.01) 4 weeks of treatment compared to PL + EX. Conclusion: Class IV laser combined with exercise is effective treatment for patients with CNP as compared to PL + EX therapy. The combination of laser + EX effectively increased functional activity and reduced pain after 4 weeks of treatment.

Keywords: chronic neck pain, class IV laser, exercises, neck disability index, visual analogue scale

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Authors: Rahul Saraswat

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More recently, a focus is given on replacing machined stainless steel metal flow-fields with inexpensive wiremesh current collectors. The flow-fields are based on simple woven wiremesh screens of various stainless steels, which are sandwiched between a thin metal plate of the same material to create a bipolar plate/flow-field configuration for use in a stack. Major advantages of using stainless steel wire screens include the elimination of expensive raw materials as well as machining and/or other special fabrication costs. Objective of the project is to improve the performance of the passive direct methanol fuel cell without increasing the cost of the cell and to make it as compact and light as possible. From the literature survey, it was found that very little is done in this direction & the following methodology was used. 1.) The passive DMFC cell can be made more compact, lighter and less costly by changing the material used in its construction. 2.) Controlling the fuel diffusion rate through the cell improves the performance of the cell. A passive liquid feed direct methanol fuel cell ( DMFC ) was fabricated using given MEA( Membrane Electrode Assembly ) and tested for different current collector structure. Mesh current collectors of different mesh densities, along with different support structures, were used, and the performance was found to be better. Methanol concentration was also varied. Optimisation of mesh size, support structure and fuel concentration was achieved. Cost analysis was also performed hereby. From the performance analysis study of DMFC, we can conclude with the following points : Area specific resistance (ASR) of wiremesh current collectors is lower than ASR of stainless steel current collectors. Also, the power produced by wiremesh current collectors is always more than that produced by stainless steel current collectors. Low or moderate methanol concentrations should be used for better and stable DMFC performance. Wiremesh is a good substitute of stainless steel for current collector plates of passive DMFC because of lower cost( by about 27 %), flexibility and light in weight characteristics of wiremesh.

Keywords: direct methanol fuel cell, membrane electrode assembly, mesh, mesh size, methanol concentration and support structure

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Authors: Abdulkabir Abdullahi

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The paper is a pre-use evaluation of grammar activities in three primary English course books (two of which are international primary English course books and the other a popular Nigerian primary English course book). The titles are - Cambridge Global English, Collins International Primary English, and Nigeria Primary English – Primary English. Grammar points and grammar activities in the three-course books were identified, grouped, and evaluated. The grammar activity which was most common in the course books, simple past tense, was chosen for evaluation, and the units which present simple past tense activities were selected to evaluate the extent to which the treatment of simple past tense in each of the course books help the young learners of English as a second language in Nigeria, aged 8 – 11, level A1 to A2, who lack the basic grammatical knowledge, to know grammar/communicate effectively. A bespoke checklist was devised, through the modification of existing checklists for the purpose of the evaluation, to evaluate the extent to which the grammar activities promote the communicative effectiveness of Nigerian learners of English as a second language. The results of the evaluation and the analysis of the data reveal that the treatment of grammar, especially the treatment of the simple past tense, is evidently insufficient. While Cambridge Global English’s, and Collins International Primary English’s treatment of grammar, the simple past tense, is underpinned by state-of-the-art theories of learning, language learning theories, second language learning principles, second language curriculum-syllabus design principles, grammar learning and teaching theories, the grammar load is insignificantly low, and the grammar tasks do not promote creative grammar practice sufficiently. Nigeria Primary English – Primary English, on the other hand, treats grammar, the simple past tense, in the old-fashioned direct way. The book does not favour the communicative language teaching approach; no opportunity for learners to notice and discover grammar rules for themselves, and the book lacks the potency to promote creative grammar practice. The research and its findings, therefore, underscore the need to improve grammar contents and increase grammar activity types which engage learners effectively and promote sufficient creative grammar practice in EFL and ESL material design and development.

Keywords: evaluation, activity, second language, activity-types, creative grammar practice

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Authors: Joelle Fong

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Older persons are at greatest risk of becoming frail. As survival to the age of 80 and beyond continues to increase, the health and frailty of older Americans has garnered much recent attention among policy makers and healthcare administrators. This paper examines patterns in old-age frailty within a multistate actuarial model that characterizes the stochastic process of biological ageing. Using aggregate population-level U.S. mortality data, we implement a stochastic aging model to examine cohort trends and gender differences in frailty distributions for older Americans born 1865 – 1894. The stochastic ageing model, which draws from the fields of actuarial science and gerontology, is well-established in the literature. The implications for public health insurance programs are also discussed. Our results suggest that, on average, women tend to be frailer than men at older ages and reveal useful insights about the magnitude of the male-female differential at critical age points. Specifically, we note that the frailty statuses of males and females are actually quite comparable from ages 65 to 80. Beyond age 80, however, the frailty levels start to diverge considerably implying that women are moving quicker into worse states of health than men. Tracking average frailty by gender over 30 successive birth cohorts, we also find that frailty levels for both genders follow a distinct peak-and-trough pattern. For instance, frailty among 85-year old American survivors increased in years 1954-1963, decreased in years 1964-1971, and again started to increase in years 1972-1979. A number of factors may have accounted for these cohort differences including differences in cohort life histories, differences in disease prevalence, differences in lifestyle and behavior, differential access to medical advances, as well as changes in environmental risk factors over time. We conclude with a discussion on the implications of our findings on spending for long-term care programs within the broader health insurance system.

Keywords: actuarial modeling, cohort analysis, frail elderly, health

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Authors: Murilo G. Mendes

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This text presents part of the results presented in the Ph.D. thesis that has used John Baily's theory and method as well as its ethnographic application in the context of the fife flutes of the Banda Cabaçal dos Irmãos Aniceto in the state of Ceará, northeast of Brazil. John Baily is a British ethnomusicologist dedicated to studying the relationships between music, musical gesture, and embodied cognition. His methodology became a useful tool to highlight historical-social aspects present in the group's instrumental music. Remaining indigenous and illiterate, these musicians played and transmitted their music from generation to generation, for almost two hundred years, without any nomenclature or systematization of the fingering performed on the flute. In other words, his music, free from any theorization, is learned, felt, perceived, and processed directly through hearing and through the relationship between the instrument's motor skills and its sound result. For this reason, Baily's assumptions became fundamental in the analysis processes. As the author's methodology recommends, classes were held with the natives and provided technical musical learning and some important concepts. Then, transcriptions and analyses of musical aspects were made from patterns of movement on the instrument incorporated by repetitions and/or by the intrinsic facility of the instrument. As a result, it was discovered how the group reconciled its indigenous origins with the demand requested by the public power and the interests of the local financial elite from the mid-twentieth century. The article is structured from the cultural context of the group, where local historical and social aspects influence the social and musical practices of the group. Then, will be present the methodological conceptions of John Baily and, finally, their application in the music of the Irmãos Aniceto. The conclusion points to the good results of identifying, through this methodology and analysis, approximations between discourse, historical-social factors, and musical text. Still, questions are raised about its application in other contexts.

Keywords: Banda Cabaçal dos Irmãos Aniceto, John Baily, pífano, spatial-motor thinking

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Authors: Wisam Ismail, Sarah Hosgood, Michael Nicholson

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The research hypothesis is that early post-transplant allograft fibrosis will be linked to donor factors and that acute rejection and/or delayed graft function in the recipient will be independent risk factors for the development of fibrosis. This research hypothesis is to explore whether acute rejection/delay graft function has an effect on the renal transplant fibrosis within the first year post live donor kidney transplant between 1998 and 2009. Methods: The study has been designed to identify five time points of the renal transplant biopsies [0 (pre-transplant), 1 month, 3 months, 6 months and 12 months] for 300 live donor renal transplant patients over 12 years period between March 1997 – August 2009. Paraffin fixed slides were collected from Leicester General Hospital and Leicester Royal Infirmary. These were routinely sectioned at a thickness of 4 Micro millimetres for standardization. Conclusions: Fibrosis at 1 month after the transplant was found significantly associated with baseline fibrosis (p<0.001) and HTN in the transplant recipient (p<0.001). Dialysis after the transplant showed a weak association with fibrosis at 1 month (p=0.07). The negative coefficient for HTN (-0.05) suggests a reduction in fibrosis in the absence of HTN. Fibrosis at 1 month was significantly associated with fibrosis at baseline (p 0.01 and 95%CI 0.11 to 0.67). Fibrosis at 3, 6 or 12 months was not found to be associated with fibrosis at baseline (p=0.70. 0.65 and 0.50 respectively). The amount of fibrosis at 1 month is significantly associated with graft survival (p=0.01 and 95%CI 0.02 to 0.14). Rejection and severity of rejection were not found to be associated with fibrosis at 1 month. The amount of fibrosis at 1 month was significantly associated with graft survival (p=0.02) after adjusting for baseline fibrosis (p=0.01). Both baseline fibrosis and graft survival were significant predictive factors. The amount of fibrosis at 1 month was not found to be significantly associated with rejection (p=0.64) after adjusting for baseline fibrosis (p=0.01). The amount of fibrosis at 1 month was not found to be significantly associated with rejection severity (p=0.29) after adjusting for baseline fibrosis (p=0.04). Fibrosis at baseline and HTN in the recipient were found to be predictive factors of fibrosis at 1 month. (p 0.02, p <0.001 respectively). Age of the donor, their relation to the patient, the pre-op Creatinine, artery, kidney weight and warm time were not found to be significantly associated with fibrosis at 1 month. In this complex model baseline fibrosis, HTN in the recipient and cold time were found to be predictive factors of fibrosis at 1 month (p=0.01,<0.001 and 0.03 respectively). Donor age was found to be a predictive factor of fibrosis at 6 months. The above analysis was repeated for 3, 6 and 12 months. No associations were detected between fibrosis and any of the explanatory variables with the exception of the donor age which was found to be a predictive factor of fibrosis at 6 months.

Keywords: fibrosis, transplant, renal, rejection

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Authors: Clifford Lewis

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This paper aims to advance the conversation of an alternative view of leadership, namely ‘leadership as the management of meaning’. Here, leadership is considered as a social process of the management of meaning within an employment context, as opposed to a psychological trait, set of behaviours or relational consequence as seen in mainstream leadership research. Specifically, this study explores the relationship between intersectional identities and the management of meaning. Design: Semi-structured, one-on-one interviews were conducted with women and men of colour working in the South African private sector organisations in various leadership positions. Employing an intersectional approach using gender and race, participants were selected by using purposive and snowball sampling concurrently. Thematic and Axial coding was used to identify dominant themes. Findings: Findings suggest that, both gender and race shape how leaders manage meaning. Findings also confirm that intersectionality is an appropriate approach when studying the leadership experiences of those groups who are underrepresented in organisational leadership structures. The findings points to the need for further research into the differential effects of intersecting identities on organisational leadership experiences and that ‘leadership as the management of meaning’ is an appropriate approach for addressing this knowledge gap. Theoretical Contribution: There is a large body of literature on the complex challenges faced by women and people of colour in leadership but there is relatively little empirical work on how identity influences the management of meaning. This study contributes to the leadership literature by providing insight into how intersectional identities influence the management of meaning at work and how this impacts the leadership experiences of largely marginalised groups. Practical Implications: Understanding the leadership experiences of underrepresented groups is important because of both legal mandates and for building diverse talent for organisations and societies. Such an understanding assists practitioners in being sensitive to simplistic notions of challenges individuals might face in accessing and practicing leadership in organisations. Advancing the conversation on leadership as the management of meaning allows for a better understanding of complex challenges faced by women and people of colour and an opportunity for organisations to systematically remove unfair structural obstacles and develop their diverse leadership capacity.

Keywords: intersectionality, diversity, leadership, sensemaking

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Authors: Hanna Gulema, Meaza Demissie, Alemayehu Worku, Tesfaye Assebe Yadeta, Yemane Berhane

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Background: In patriarchal societies, female caregivers decide on food allocation within a family based on prevailing gender and age norms, which may lead to inequality that does not favor young adolescent girls. This study evaluated the effect of a community-based social norm intervention involving female caregivers in West Hararghe, Ethiopia. The intervention was engaging female caregivers along with other adult influential community members to deliberate and act on food allocation social norms in a process referred to as Social Analysis and Action (SAA). Method: We used data from a large quasi-experimental study to compare family eating practices between those who participated in the Social Analyses and Action intervention and those who did not. The respondents were female caregivers in households with young adolescent girls (ages 13 and 14 years). The study’s outcome was the practice of family eating together from the same dish. The difference in difference (DID) analysis with the Mixed effect logistic regression model was used to examine the effect of the intervention. Result: The results showed improved family eating practices in both groups, but the improvement was greater in the intervention group. The DID analysis showed an 11.99 percentage points greater improvement in the intervention arm than in the control arm. The mixed-effect regression produced an adjusted odds ratio of 2.08 (95% CI [1.06–4.09]) after controlling selected covariates, p-value 0.033. Conclusions: The involvement of influential adult community members significantly improves the family practice of eating together in households where adolescent girls are present in our study. The intervention has great potential to minimize household food allocation inequalities and thus improve the nutritional status of young adolescents. Further studies are necessary to evaluate the effectiveness of the intervention in different social norm contexts to formulate policy and guidelines for scale-up.

Keywords: family eating practice, social norm intervention, adolescence girls, caregiver

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Authors: Tridipa Biswas, Kamal Pandey

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A Digital Elevation Model (DEM) is a simple representation of a surface in 3 dimensional space with elevation as the third dimension along with X (horizontal coordinates) and Y (vertical coordinates) in rectangular coordinates. DEM has wide applications in various fields like disaster management, hydrology and watershed management, geomorphology, urban development, map creation and resource management etc. Cartosat-1 or IRS P5 (Indian Remote Sensing Satellite) is a state-of-the-art remote sensing satellite built by ISRO (May 5, 2005) which is mainly intended for cartographic applications.Cartosat-1 is equipped with two panchromatic cameras capable of simultaneous acquiring images of 2.5 meters spatial resolution. One camera is looking at +26 degrees forward while another looks at –5 degrees backward to acquire stereoscopic imagery with base to height ratio of 0.62. The time difference between acquiring of the stereopair images is approximately 52 seconds. The high resolution stereo data have great potential to produce high-quality DEM. The high-resolution Cartosat-1 stereo image data is expected to have significant impact in topographic mapping and watershed applications. The objective of the present study is to generate high-resolution DEM, quality evaluation in different elevation strata, generation of ortho-rectified image and associated accuracy assessment from CARTOSAT-1 data based Ground Control Points (GCPs) for Aglar watershed (Tehri-Garhwal and Dehradun district, Uttarakhand, India). The present study reveals that generated DEMs (10m and 30m) derived from the CARTOSAT-1 stereo pair is much better and accurate when compared with existing DEMs (ASTER and CARTO DEM) also for different terrain parameters like slope, aspect, drainage, watershed boundaries etc., which are derived from the generated DEMs, have better accuracy and results when compared with the other two (ASTER and CARTO) DEMs derived terrain parameters.

Keywords: ASTER-DEM, CARTO-DEM, CARTOSAT-1, digital elevation model (DEM), ortho-rectified image, photogrammetry, RPC, stereo pair, terrain parameters

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Authors: A. Kyprianou, A. Tjirkallis

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Condition monitoring of structures in service is very important as it provides information about the risk of damage development. One of the essential constituents of structural condition monitoring is the damage detection methodology. In the context of condition monitoring of in service structures a damage detection methodology analyses data obtained from the structure while it is in operation. Usually, this means that the data could be affected by operational and environmental conditions in a way that could mask the effects of a possible damage on the data. This, depending on the damage detection methodology, could lead to either false alarms or miss existing damages. In this article a damage detection methodology that is based on the Spatio-temporal continuous wavelet transform (SPT-CWT) analysis of a sequence of experimental time responses of a cantilever beam is proposed. The cantilever is subjected to white and pink noise excitation to simulate different operating conditions. In addition, in order to simulate changing environmental conditions, the cantilever is subjected to heating by a heat gun. The response of the cantilever beam is measured by a high-speed camera. Edges are extracted from the series of images of the beam response captured by the camera. Subsequent processing of the edges gives a series of time responses on 439 points on the beam. This sequence is then analyzed using the SPT-CWT to identify damage. The algorithm proposed was able to clearly identify damage under any condition when the structure was excited by white noise force. In addition, in the case of white noise excitation, the analysis could also reveal the position of the heat gun when it was used to heat the structure. The analysis could identify the different operating conditions i.e. between responses due to white noise excitation and responses due to pink noise excitation. During the pink noise excitation whereas damage and changing temperature were identified it was not possible to clearly identify the effect of damage from that of temperature. The methodology proposed in this article for damage detection enables the separation the damage effect from that due to temperature and excitation on data obtained from measurements of a cantilever beam. This methodology does not require information about the apriori state of the structure.

Keywords: spatiotemporal continuous wavelet transform, damage detection, data normalization, varying temperature

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Authors: Avani Jain, S. Shelley, M. Indirani, Shilpa Kalal, Jaykanth Amalachandran

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Aim: To evaluate the prevalence of gall bladder dysfunction in patients with dyspepsia using In-House fatty meal cholescintigraphy. Materials & Methods: This study is a prospective cohort study. 59 healthy volunteers with no dyspeptic complaints and negative ultrasound and endoscopy were recruited in study. 61 patients having complaint of dyspepsia for duration of more than 6 months were included. All of them underwent 99mTc-Mebrofenin fatty meal cholescintigraphy following a standard protocol. Dynamic acquisitions were acquired for 120 minutes with an In-House fatty meal being given at 45th minute. Gall bladder emptying kinetics was determined with gall bladder ejection fractions (GBEF) calculated at 30minutes, 45minutes and at 60 minutes (30min, 45min & 60 min). Standardization of fatty meal was done for volunteers. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was used assess the diagnostic accuracy of 3 time points (30min, 45min & 60 min) used for measuring gall bladder emptying. On the basis of cut off derived from volunteers, the patients were assessed for gall bladder dysfunction. Results: In volunteers, the GBEF at 30 min was 74.42±8.26 % (mean ±SD), at 45 min was 82.61 ± 6.5 % and at 60 min was 89.37±4.48%, compared to patients where at 30min it was 33.73±22.87%, at 45 min it was 43.03±26.97% and at 60 min it was 51.85±29.60%. The lower limit of GBEF in volunteers at 30 min was 60%, 45 min was 69% and at 60 min was 81%. ROC analysis showed that area under curve was largest for 30 min GBEF (0.952; 95% CI = 0.914-0.989) and that all the 3 measures were statistically significant (p < 0.005). Majority of the volunteers had 74% of gall bladder emptying by 30 minutes; hence it was taken as an optimum cutoff time to assess gall bladder contraction. > 60% GBEF at 30 min post fatty meal was considered as normal and < 60% GBEF as indicative of gall bladder dysfunction. In patients, various causes for dyspepsia were identified: GB dysfunction (63.93%), Peptic ulcer (8.19 %), Gastroesophageal reflux disease (8.19%), Gastritis (4.91%). In 18.03% of cases GB dysfunction coexisted with other gastrointestinal conditions. The diagnosis of functional dyspepsia was made in 14.75% of cases. Conclusions: Gall bladder dysfunction contributes significantly to the causation of dyspepsia. It could coexist with various other gastrointestinal diseases. Fatty meal was well tolerated and devoid of any side effects. Many patients who are labeled as functional dyspeptics could actually have gall bladder dysfunction. Hence as an adjunct to ultrasound and endoscopy, fatty meal cholescintigraphy can also be used as a screening modality in characterization of dyspepsia.

Keywords: in-house fatty meal, choescintigraphy, dyspepsia, gall bladder ejection fraction, functional dyspepsia

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Authors: Farangiz Davranbekova

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Subject: The study explores the impact of Over-the-Top services in the sports rights market, focusing on football games. This impact is analysed in the big five European football markets. The research entails how the pay-TV market is combating the disruptors' entry, how the fans are adjusting to these changes and how leagues and football clubs are orienting in the transitional period of more choice. Aims and methods: The research aims to offer a general overview of the impact of OTT players in the football rights market. A theoretical framework of Jenkins’ five layers of convergence is implemented to analyse the transition the sports rights market is witnessing from various angles. The empirical analysis consists of secondary research data as and seven expert interviews from three different clusters. The findings are bound by the combination of the two methods offering general statements. Findings: The combined secondary data as well as expert interviews, conducted on five layers of convergence found: 1. Technological convergence presents that football content is accessible through various devices with innovative digital features, unlike the traditional TV set box. 2. Social convergence demonstrates that football fans multitask using various devices on social media when watching the games. These activities are complementary to traditional TV viewing. 3. Cultural convergence points that football fans have a new layer of fan engagement with leagues, clubs and other fans using social media. Additionally, production and consumption lines are blurred. 4. Economic convergence finds that content distribution is diversifying and/or eroding. Consumers now have more choices, albeit this can be harmful to them. Entry barriers are decreased, and bigger clubs feel more powerful. 5. Global convergence shows that football fans are engaging with not only local fans but with fans around the world that social media sites enable. Recommendation: A study on smaller markets such as Belgium or the Netherlands would benefit the study on the impact of OTT. Additionally, examination of other sports will shed light on this matter. Lastly, once the direct-to-consumer model is fully taken off in Europe, it will be of importance to examine the impact of such transformation in the market.

Keywords: sports rights, OTT, pay TV, football

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Authors: Carmit Noa Shpigelman, Michal Isaacson

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Over the last decades, the improvement in welfare and health services and the increase in awareness of the needs of people with intellectual disability has led to an increase in their life expectancy, and many of them enter into old age. Furthermore, many older adults with intellectual disability live in out-of-home residence. This situation, in addition to the parents' aging process as the main caregivers, may lead to a reduction in contact with the family and, as a result, decreased level of the residents' (older adults with intellectual disability) well-being. A plausible solution for this condition may be using communication technologies. Previous studies indicate that using communication technologies among older adults contributes to maintaining the relationship with others, decreasing the older adult's sense of loneliness, and increasing their level of well-being. Using communication technologies may be especially valuable for older adults in the current global pandemic of COVID-19 and the associated restrictions of social distancing. However, to date, research on using communication technologies among people with intellectual disability has focused on younger cohorts. Moreover, research on the adoption of technologies among older adults with intellectual disability has focused more on assistive technologies and less on communication technologies. To address these practice and research gaps, the present study focuses on the adoption process of communication technology among older adults with intellectual disability (over the age of 45 years) who live in supported accommodation. Fifteen residents participated in an intervention program where they received a tablet with a video communication application and through which they were able to contact their families. A multiple-case study methodology was applied to capture the experiences, including barriers and needs, of the residents from three perspectives: the resident, the family member, and a staff member from the residential setting. The data was collected via quantitative and qualitative measures at different time points over the intervention. The findings demonstrate the contribution of using communication technology for the well-being of older adults with intellectual disability in supported accommodation. The findings also map the adoption process among this population, including pitfalls. The present study contributes to developing best practices on how to accommodate communication technologies to older adults with intellectual disability for maintaining contact with others.

Keywords: adoption, aging, communication, intellectual disability, technology

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Authors: Anna M. N. Shifotoka, Richard Walker, Katie Haighton, Richard McNally

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An analysis of trends in Case Notification Rates (CNR) can be used to monitor the impact of Tuberculosis (TB) control interventions over time in order to inform the implementation of current and future TB interventions. A retrospective analysis of trends in TB CNR for two urban regions in Namibia, namely Khomas and Erongo regions, was conducted. TB case notification data were obtained from annual TB reports of the national TB programme, Ministry of Health and Social Services, covering the period from 1997 to 2015. Joinpoint regression was used to analyse trends in CNR for different types of TB groups. A trend was considered to be statistically significant when a p-value was less than 0.05. During the period under review, the crude CNR for all forms of TB declined from 808 to 400 per 100 000 population in Khomas, and from 1051 to 611 per 100 000 population in Erongo. In both regions, significant change points in trends were observed for all types of TB groups examined. In Khomas region, the trend for new smear positive pulmonary TB increased significantly by an annual rate of 4.1% (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.3% to 8.2%) during the period 1997 to 2004, and thereafter declined significantly by -6.2% (95%CI: -7.7% to -4.3%) per year until 2015. Similarly, the trend for smear negative pulmonary TB increased significantly by 23.7% (95%CI: 9.7 to 39.5) per year from 1997 to 2004 and thereafter declined significantly by an annual change of -26.4% (95%CI: -33.1% to -19.8%). The trend for all forms of TB CNR in Khomas region increased significantly by 8.1% (95%CI: 3.7 to 12.7) per year from 1997 to 2004 and thereafter declined significantly a rate of -8.7% (95%CI: -10.6 to -6.8). In Erongo region, the trend for smear positive pulmonary TB increased at a rate of 1.2% (95%CI: -1.2% to 3.6%) annually during the earlier years (1997 to 2008), and thereafter declined significantly by -9.3% (95%CI: -13.3% to -5.0%) per year from 2008 to 2015. Also in Erongo, the trend for all forms of TB CNR increased significantly by an annual rate of 4.0% (95%CI: 1.4% to 6.6%) during the years between 1997 to 2006 and thereafter declined significantly by -10.4% (95%CI: -12.7% to -8.0%) per year during 2006 to 2015. The trend for extra-pulmonary TB CNR declined but did not reach statistical significance in both regions. In conclusion, CNRs declined for all types of TB examined in both regions. Further research is needed to study trends for other TB dimensions such as treatment outcomes and notification of drug resistant TB cases.

Keywords: epidemiology, Namibia, temporal trends, tuberculosis

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Authors: Atousa Khodadadyan, Gabe Mythen, Hirbod Assa, Beverley Bishop

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Risk assessment and the knowledge provided through this process is a crucial part of any decision-making process in the management of risks and uncertainties. Failure in assessment of risks can cause inadequacy in the entire process of risk management, which in turn can lead to failure in achieving organisational objectives as well as having significant damaging consequences on populations affected by the potential risks being assessed. The choice of tools and techniques in risk assessment can influence the degree and scope of decision-making and subsequently the risk response strategy. There are various available qualitative and quantitative tools and techniques that are deployed within the broad process of risk assessment. The sheer diversity of tools and techniques available to practitioners makes it difficult for organisations to consistently employ the most appropriate methods. This tools and techniques adaptation is rendered more difficult in public risk regulation organisations due to the sensitive and complex nature of their activities. This is particularly the case in areas relating to the environment, food, and human health and safety, when organisational goals are tied up with societal, political and individuals’ goals at national and international levels. Hence, recognising, analysing and evaluating different decision support tools and techniques employed in assessing risks in public risk management organisations was considered. This research is part of a mixed method study which aimed to examine the perception of risk assessment and the extent to which organisations practise risk assessment’ tools and techniques. The study adopted a semi-structured questionnaire with qualitative and quantitative data analysis to include a range of public risk regulation organisations from the UK, Germany, France, Belgium and the Netherlands. The results indicated the public risk management organisations mainly use diverse tools and techniques in the risk assessment process. The primary hazard analysis; brainstorming; hazard analysis and critical control points were described as the most practiced risk identification techniques. Within qualitative and quantitative risk analysis, the participants named the expert judgement, risk probability and impact assessment, sensitivity analysis and data gathering and representation as the most practised techniques.

Keywords: decision-making, public risk management organisations, risk assessment, tools and techniques

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Authors: E. Gouya Bozorg

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The issue of ranking of sports teams, in particular soccer teams is of primary importance in the professional sports. However, it is still based on classical statistics and models outside of area of mathematics. Rigorous mathematics and then statistics despite the expectation held of them have not been able to effectively engage in the issue of ranking. It is something that requires serious pathology. The purpose of this study is to change the approach to get closer to mathematics proper for using in the ranking. We recommend using theoretical mathematics as a good option because it can hermeneutically obtain the theoretical concepts and criteria needful for the ranking from everyday language of a League. We have proposed a framework that puts the issue of ranking into a new space that we have applied in soccer as a case study. This is an experimental and theoretical study on the issue of ranking in a professional soccer league based on theoretical mathematics, followed by theoretical statistics. First, we showed the theoretical definition of constant number Є = 1.33 or ‘golden number’ of a soccer league. Then, we have defined the ‘efficiency of a team’ by this number and formula of μ = (Pts / (k.Є)) – 1, in which Pts is a point obtained by a team in k number of games played. Moreover, K.Є index has been used to show the theoretical median line in the league table and to compare top teams and bottom teams. Theoretical coefficient of σ= 1 / (1+ (Ptx / Ptxn)) has also been defined that in every match between the teams x, xn, with respect to the ability of a team and the points of both of them Ptx, Ptxn, and it gives a performance point resulting in a special ranking for the League. And it has been useful particularly in evaluating the performance of weaker teams. The current theory has been examined for the statistical data of 4 major European Leagues during the period of 1998-2014. Results of this study showed that the issue of ranking is dependent on appropriate theoretical indicators of a League. These indicators allowed us to find different forms of ranking of teams in a league including the ‘special table’ of a league. Furthermore, on this basis the issue of a record of team has been revised and amended. In addition, the theory of ranking can be used to compare and classify the different leagues and tournaments. Experimental results obtained from archival statistics of major professional leagues in the world in the past two decades have confirmed the theory. This topic introduces a new theory for ranking of a soccer league. Moreover, this theory can be used to compare different leagues and tournaments.

Keywords: efficiency of a team, ranking, special table, theoretical mathematic

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