Search results for: associated risk factors

Authors: K. S. Vimal, D. Bodhini, K. Ramya, N. Lakshmipriya, R. M. Anjana, V. Sudha, J. A. Lovegrove, V. Mohan, V. Radha

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Gene-lifestyle interaction studies have been carried out in various populations. However, to date there are no studies in an Asian Indian population. Hence, we examined whether lifestyle factors such as diet and physical activity modify the association between fat mass and obesity–associated (FTO) gene variants and obesity and type 2 diabetes (T2D) in an Asian Indian population. We studied 734 unrelated T2D and 884 normal glucose-tolerant (NGT) participants randomly selected from the Chennai Urban Rural Epidemiology Study (CURES) in Southern India. Obesity was defined according to the World Health Organization Asia Pacific Guidelines (non-obese, BMI < 25 kg/m2; obese, BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2). Six single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the FTO gene (rs9940128, rs7193144, rs8050136, rs918031, rs1588413 and rs11076023) identified from recent genome-wide association studies for T2D were genotyped by polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism and direct sequencing. Dietary assessment was carried out using a validated food frequency questionnaire and physical activity was based upon the self-report. Interaction analyses were performed by including the interaction terms in the model. A joint likelihood ratio test of the main SNP effects and the SNP-diet/physical activity interaction effects was used in the linear regression analyses to maximize statistical power. Statistical analyses were performed using STATA version 13. There was a significant interaction between FTO SNP rs8050136 and carbohydrate energy percentage (Pinteraction=0.04) on obesity, where the ‘A’ allele carriers of the SNP rs8050136 had 2.46 times higher risk of obesity than those with ‘CC’ genotype (P=3.0x10-5) among individuals in the highest tertile of carbohydrate energy percentage. Furthermore, among those who had lower levels of physical activity, the ‘A’ allele carriers of the SNP rs8050136 had 1.89 times higher risk of obesity than those with ‘CC’ genotype (P=4.0x10-5). We also found a borderline interaction between SNP rs11076023 and carbohydrate energy percentage (Pinteraction=0.08) on T2D, where the ‘A’ allele carriers in the highest tertile of carbohydrate energy percentage, had 1.57 times higher risk of T2D than those with ‘TT’ genotype (P=0.002). There was also a significant interaction between SNP rs11076023 and physical activity (Pinteraction=0.03) on T2D. No further significant interactions between SNPs and macronutrient intake or physical activity on obesity and T2D were observed. In conclusion, this is the first study to provide evidence for a gene-diet and gene-physical activity interaction on obesity and T2D in an Asian Indian population. These findings suggest that the association between FTO gene variants and obesity and T2D is influenced by carbohydrate intake and physical activity levels. Greater understanding of how FTO gene influences obesity and T2D through dietary and exercise interventions will advance the development of behavioral intervention and personalised lifestyle strategies predicted to reduce the development of metabolic diseases in ‘A’ allele carriers of both SNPs in this Asian Indian population.

Keywords: dietary intake, FTO, obesity, physical activity, type 2 diabetes, Asian Indian.

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Authors: Junjira Mahaboon, Anongnard Boonpak, Nattakarn Worrasan, Busma Kama, Mujalin Saikliang, Siripor Dankachatarn

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Rubber wood processing is one of the most important industries in southern Thailand. The process has several safety hazards for example unsafe wood cutting machine guarding, wood dust, noise, and heavy lifting. However, workers’ occupational health and safety measures to promote their behaviors are still limited. This quasi-experimental research was to determine factors affecting workers’ safety behaviors using theory of planned behavior after implementing job safety intervention program. The purposes were to (1) determine factors affecting workers’ behaviors and (2) to evaluate effectiveness of the intervention program. The sample of study was 66 workers from a rubber wood processing factory. Factors in the Theory of Planned Behavior model (TPB) were measured before and after the intervention. The factors of TPB included attitude towards behavior, subjective norm, perceived behavioral control, intention, and behavior. Firstly, Job Safety Analysis (JSA) was conducted and Safety Standard Operation Procedures (SSOP) were established. The questionnaire was also used to collect workers’ characteristics and TPB factors. Then, job safety intervention program to promote workers’ behavior according to SSOP were implemented for a four month period. The program included SSOP training, personal protective equipment use, and safety promotional campaign. After that, the TPB factors were again collected. Paired sample t-test and independent t-test were used to analyze the data. The result revealed that attitude towards behavior and intention increased significantly after the intervention at p<0.05. These factors also significantly determined the workers’ safety behavior according to SSOP at p<0.05. However, subjective norm, and perceived behavioral control were not significantly changed nor related to safety behaviors. In conclusion, attitude towards behavior and workers’ intention should be promoted to encourage workers’ safety behaviors. SSOP intervention program e.g. short meeting, safety training, and promotional campaign should be continuously implemented in a routine basis to improve workers’ behavior.

Keywords: job safety analysis, rubber wood processing workers, safety standard operation procedure, theory of planned behavior

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Authors: Nida Iftikhar, Jamaluddin Thaheem, Bilal Iftikhar

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In the construction industry, adequate and effective decision-making can mean the difference between success and failure. Bidding is the most important element of the construction business since it is a mean by which contractors obtain work. This is probably the only option for any contractor firm to sustain in the market and achieve its objective of earning the profits by winning tenders. The capability to select most appropriate ventures not only defines the success and wellbeing of contractor firms but also their survival and sustainability in the industry. The construction practitioners are usually on their own when it comes to deciding on bidding for a project or not. Usually, experience-based solutions are offered where a lot of subjectivity is involved. This research has been opted considering the local construction industry of Pakistan in order to examine the critical success factors from contractors’ perspective while making bidding decisions, listing and evaluating critical factors in order of their importance, categorization of these factors into decision support & decision oppose groups and to develop a framework to help contractors in the decision-making process. Literature review, questionnaires, and structured interviews are used for identification and quantification of factors affecting bid/no bid decision-making. Statistical methods of ranking analysis and analytical hierarchy process of multi-criteria decision-making method are used for analysis. It is found that profitability, need for work and financial health of client are the most decisive factors in bid/no bid decision-making while project size, project type, fulfilling the tender conditions imposed by the client and relationship, identity & reputation of the client are least impact factors in bid/no bid decision-making. Further, to verify the developed framework, case studies have been conducted to evaluate the bid/no bid decision-making in building procurement. This is the first of its nature study in the context of the local construction industry and recommends using a holistic decision-making framework for such business-critical deliberations.

Keywords: bidding, bid decision-making, construction procurement, contractor

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Authors: Abdullah Alshehab

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Governments worldwide are intensely focused on digitizing public transactions to establish reliable e-government services. The advent of new digital technologies and ongoing advancements in ICT have profoundly transformed business operations. Citizen engagement and participation in e-government services are crucial for the system's success. However, it is essential to measure and enhance citizen satisfaction levels to effectively evaluate and improve these systems. Citizen satisfaction is a key criterion that allows government institutions to assess the quality of their services. There is a strong connection between information quality, service quality, and system quality, all of which directly impact user satisfaction. Additionally, both system quality and information quality have indirect effects on citizen satisfaction. A causal map, which is a network diagram representing causes and effects, can illustrate these relationships. According to the literature, the main factors influencing citizen satisfaction are trust, reliability, citizen support, convenience, and transparency. This paper investigates the causal relationships among these factors and identifies any interrelatedness between them.

Keywords: e-government services, e-satisfaction, citizen satisfaction, causal map.

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Authors: Bohsiu Wu

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This study compares the differences in social dynamics between rural and urban areas in California to explain homicides involving family members. It is hypothesized that rural homicides are better explained by social isolation and lack of intervention resources, whereas urban homicides are attributed to social disadvantage factors. Several critical social dynamics including social isolation, social disadvantages, acculturation, and intervention resources were entered in a hierarchical linear model (HLM) to examine whether county-level factors affect how each specific dynamic performs at the ZIP code level, a proxy measure for communities. Homicide data are from the Supplementary Homicide Report for all 58 counties in California from 1997 to 1999. Predictors at both the county and ZIP code levels are derived from the 2000 US census. Preliminary results from a HLM analysis show that social isolation is a significant but moderate predictor to explain rural family homicide and various social disadvantage factors are significant factors accounting for urban family homicide. Acculturation has little impact. Rurality and urbanity appear to interact with various social dynamics in explaining family homicide. The implications for prevention at both the county and community level as well as directions for future study on the differences between rural and urban locales are explored in the paper.

Keywords: communities, family, HLM, homicide, rural, urban

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Authors: Unity Chipfupa, Aluwani Tagwi, Edilegnaw Wale

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Climate change adaptation studies are challenged by a limited understanding of how non-cognitive factors such as psychological capital affect adaptation decisions of smallholder farmers. The concept of psychological capital has not been fully applied in the empirical literature on climate change adaptation strategies. Hence, the study was meant to assess how psychological capital endowment affects climate change adaptation among smallholder farmers. A multivariate probit regression model was estimated using data collected from 328 smallholder farmers in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. The findings indicate that, among other factors, self-confidence and hope or aspirations in farming influence climate change adaptation decisions of smallholders. The psychological capital theory proved to be comprehensive in identifying specific psychological dimensions associated with adaptation decisions. However, the non-alignment of approaches for measuring non-cognitive factors made it difficult to compare results among different studies. In conclusion, the study recommends the need for practical ways for enhancing smallholders’ endowment with key non-cognitive abilities. Researchers should develop and agree on a comprehensive framework for assessing non-cognitive factors critical for climate change adaptation. This will improve the use of positive psychology theories to advance the literature on climate change adaptation. Other key recommendations include targeted support for communities facing higher risks of climate change, improving smallholders’ ability to adapt, promotion of social networks and the inclusion of farming objectives as an important indicator in climate change adaptation research.

Keywords: adaptive capacity, climate change adaptation, psychological capital, multivariate probit, non-cognitive factors.

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Authors: Eva L. Suarez, Daniel E. Meeroff, Yan Yong

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The U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) developed flood maps based on experts’ experience and estimates of the probability of flooding. Current flood-risk models evaluate flood risk with regional and subjective measures without impact from torrential rain and nuisance flooding at the neighborhood level. Nuisance flooding occurs in small areas in the community, where a few streets or blocks are routinely impacted. This type of flooding event occurs when torrential rainstorm combined with high tide and sea level rise temporarily exceeds a given threshold. In South Florida, this threshold is 1.7 ft above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW). The National Weather Service defines torrential rain as rain deposition at a rate greater than 0.3-inches per hour or three inches in a single day. Data from the Florida Climate Center, 1970 to 2020, shows 371 events with more than 3-inches of rain in a day in 612 months. The purpose of this research is to develop a data-driven method to determine comprehensive analytical damage-avoidance criteria that account for nuisance flood events at the single-family home level. The method developed uses the Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) method from the American Society of Quality (ASQ) to estimate the Damage Avoidance (DA) preparation for a 1-day 100-year storm. The Consequence of Nuisance Flooding (CoNF) is estimated from community mitigation efforts to prevent nuisance flooding damage. The Probability of Nuisance Flooding (PoNF) is derived from the frequency and duration of torrential rainfall causing delays and community disruptions to daily transportation, human illnesses, and property damage. Urbanization and population changes are related to the U.S. Census Bureau's annual population estimates. Data collected by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Natural Resources Conservation Service’s National Resources Inventory (NRI) and locally by the South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD) track the development and land use/land cover changes with time. The intent is to include temporal trends in population density growth and the impact on land development. Results from this investigation provide the risk of nuisance flooding as a function of CoNF and PoNF for coastal areas of South Florida. The data-based criterion provides awareness to local municipalities on their flood-risk assessment and gives insight into flood management actions and watershed development.

Keywords: flood risk, nuisance flooding, urban flooding, FMEA

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Authors: F. A. Hassona, M. D. Hashem, R. I. Melek, B. M. Hakeem

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A differential settlement at the end of a bridge near the interface between the abutment and the embankment is a persistent problem for highway agencies. The differential settlement produces the common ‘bump at the end of the bridge’. Reduction in steering response, distraction to the driver, added risk and expense to maintenance operation, and reduction in a transportation agency’s public image are all undesirable effects of these uneven and irregular transitions. This paper attempts to simulate the bump at the end of the bridge using PLAXIS finite element 2D program. PLAXIS was used to simulate a laboratory model called Bridge to Embankment Simulator of Transition (B.E.S.T.) device which was built by others to investigate this problem. A total of six numerical simulations were conducted using hardening- soil model with rational assumptions of missing soil parameters to estimate the bump at the end of the bridge. The results show good agreements between the numerical and the laboratory models. Important factors influencing bumps at bridge ends were also addressed in light of the model results.

Keywords: bridge approach slabs, bridge bump, hardening-soil, PLAXIS 2D, settlement

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Authors: Hsin-Chih Lai, Yung-Lung Lee, Yun-Yao Chi, Ching-Yi Horng, Pei-Chih Wu, Hsien-Chang Wang

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Taiwan, a climatically challenged island, has always been keen on the issue of water resource management due to its limitations in water storage. Since water resource management has been the focal point of many adaptations to climate change, there has been a lack of attention on another issue, water quality. This study chooses the Errer River Basin as the experimental focus for water quality in Taiwan. With the Errer River Basin being one of the most polluted rivers in Taiwan, this study observes the effects of climate change on this river over a period of time. Taiwan is also targeted by multiple typhoons every year, the heavy rainfall and strong winds create problems of pollution being carried to different river segments, including into the ocean. This study aims to create an impact and risk assessment on Errer River Basin, to show the connection from climate change to potential extreme events, which in turn could influence water quality and ultimately human health. Using dynamic downscaling, this study narrows the information from a global scale to a resolution of 1 km x 1 km. Then, through interpolation, the resolution is further narrowed into a resolution of 200m x 200m, to analyze the past, present, and future of extreme events. According to different climate change scenarios, this study designs an assessment index on the vulnerability of the Errer River Basin. Through this index, Errer River inhabitants can access advice on adaptations to climate change and act accordingly.

Keywords: climate change, adaptation, water quality, risk assessment

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Authors: Fety Nurlia Muzayanah, Arif Imam Suroso, Mukhamad Najib

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The market share of organic food in Indonesia just reaches 0.5-2 percents from the entire of agricultural products. The aim of this research is to analyze the relation of gender, work, age and final education toward the buying interest of organic food, to identify the factors influencing the resistance of the purchase of organic food, and to identify the market education process. The analysis result of Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) shows the factors causing the resistance of the purchase of organic food are the negative attitude toward organic food, the lack of affordable in range for organic food product and the lack of awareness toward organic food, while the subjective norms have no significant effect toward the buying interest. The market education process which can be done is the education about the use of the health of organic food, the organic certification and the economic value.

Keywords: market education, organic food, consumer behavior, structural equation modeling

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Authors: Olga Santesteban, Glorisa Canino, Hector R. Bird, Cristiane S. Duarte

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Objective: To address whether harsh discipline is associated with disruptive behavior disorders (DBD) in Puerto Rican children over time. Background: Both cross-sectional and longitudinal studies report that rates of DBD vary by gender, age and other demographics, being more frequent among boys, later in life and among those who live in urban areas. Also, the literature supports the direct, positive association between harsh discipline and externalizing behaviors. Nevertheless, scholars have underscored the important role of race and ethnicity in understanding discipline effects on children. The impact of harsh discipline in a Puerto Rican population remains to be studied. Methods: Sample: This is a secondary analysis of the Boricua Youth Study which assessed yearly (3 times) Puerto Rican children aged 5-15 in two different sites: San Juan (Puerto Rico) and the South Bronx (NY), N=2951. Participants that did not have scores of harsh discipline in the 3 waves were excluded for this analysis (N=2091). Main Measures: a) Harsh Discipline (Parent report) was measured using 6 items from the “Parental Discipline Scale” that measures various forms of punishment, including physical and verbal abuse, and withholding affection; b) Disruptive Behavior Disorder (Parent report): Parent version of the Diagnostic Interview Schedule for Children-IV (DISC-IV) was used to asses children’s conduct disorders; c) Demographic factors: Child gender, child age, family income, marital status; d) Parental factors: parental psychopathology, parental monitoring, familism, parent support; e) Children characteristics: Controlling for any diagnostic at wave 1 (internalizing or externalizing). Data Analysis: Logistic regression was carried out relating the likelihood of DBD to harsh discipline along waves controlling for potential confounders as demographics, child and parent characteristics. Results: There were no significant differences in harsh discipline by site in wave 1 and wave 2 but there was a significant difference in wave 3. Also, there were no significant differences in DBD by site in wave 1 and wave 2 but there was a significant difference in wave 3. There was a significant difference of discipline by gender and age in all the waves. We calculated unadjusted (OR) and adjusted (AOD) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) showing the relation between harsh discipline at wave 1 and the presence of child disruptive behavior disorder at wave 3 for both South Bronx and Puerto Rico. There was an association between harsh discipline and the likelihood of having DBD in The Bronx (AOR=1.76; 95%CI=1.13-2.74, p.013) and in Puerto Rico (AOR=2.17; 95%CI=1.28-3.67, p.004) having controlled for demographic, parental and individual factors. Conclusions: Context may be an important differential factor shaping the potential risk of harsh discipline toward DBD for Puerto Rican children.

Keywords: disruptive behavior disorders, harsh discipline, puerto rican, psychological education

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Authors: Hongmin Chun

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This paper examines corporate cash holdings and their effect on the cost of equity capital. In addition, this study examines the potentially different effects when the firm belongs to chaebol and non-chaebol groups. Chaebol is a South Korean form of business conglomerate. Chaebol is typically global multinationals and owns numerous international enterprises, controlled by a chairman with power over all the operations. The overall empirical result suggests that higher cash holdings are a risk increasing factor which holds for the chaebol group of firms. This result is valid in a battery of robustness tests and 2SLS regressions. In Korea, higher cash holdings represent a risk premium factor that is closely related to the overinvestment and agency problems between managers and shareholders.

Keywords: cash holdings, implied cost of equity capital, chaebol, agency problem

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Authors: Alan (Avi) Kirschenbaum, Carmit Rapaport

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The behavior of bystanders in emergencies and disasters have been examined for over 50 years. Such acts have been cited as contributing to saving lives in terms of providing first responder help until official emergency units can arrive. Several reasons have been suggested for this type of behavior but most focused on a broad segment of individual psychological decision-making processes. Recent theoretical evidence suggests that the external factors for such bystander decisions, mainly disaster community based social contexts factors, are also important. We aim to test these competing arguments. Specifically, we examine alternative explanatory perspectives by focusing on self-efficacy as a proxy for the accepted individual psychological case and contrast it with potential bystander characteristics of the individual as well factors as embedded in the social context of the disaster community. To do so, we will utilize a random sampling of the population from a field study of an urban community in Israel that experienced five years of continuous terror attacks. The results strongly suggest that self-efficacy, as well as external factors: preparedness and having skills for intervention during emergencies along with gender best, predict potential helping behaviors. These results broaden our view of bystander behavior and open a window for enhancing this phenomenon as another element in disaster and crisis management.

Keywords: bystander behavior, disasters emergencies, psychological motivation to help, social context for helping

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Authors: Mariem Saadi, Sabri Kanzari, Adel Zghibi

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In semi-arid areas like the Kairouan region, the constant irrigation with saline water and the overuse of groundwater resources, soils and aquifers salinization has become an increasing concern. In this study, a methodology has been developed to evaluate the groundwater contamination risk based on the unsaturated zone hydraulic properties. Two soil profiles with different ranges of salinity, one located in the north of the plain and another one in the south of plain (each 30 m deep) and both characterized by direct recharge of the aquifer were chosen. Simulations were conducted with Hydrus-1D code using measured precipitation data for the period 1998-2003 and calculated evapotranspiration for both chosen profiles. Four combinations of initial conditions of water content and salt concentration were used for the simulation process in order to find the best match between simulated and measured values. The success of the calibration of Hydrus-1D allowed the investigation of some scenarios in order to assess the contamination risk under different natural conditions. The aquifer risk contamination is related to the natural conditions where it increased while facing climate change and temperature increase and decreased in the presence of a clay layer in the unsaturated zone. Hydrus-1D was a useful tool to predict the groundwater level and quality in the case of a direct recharge and in the absence of any information related to the soil layers except for the texture.

Keywords: Hydrus-1D, Kairouan, salinization, semi-arid region, solute transport, unsaturated zone

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Authors: Amirul Adlan, Robert McCulloch, Scott Evans, Michael Parry, Jonathan Stevenson, Lee Jeys

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Background and Objectives: The gastrocnemius myofascial flap is used to manage soft-tissue defects over the anterior aspect of the knee in the context of a patient presenting with a sinus and periprosthetic joint infection (PJI) or extensor mechanism failure. The aim of this study was twofold: firstly, to evaluate the outcomes of gastrocnemius flaps performed by appropriately trained orthopaedic surgeons in the context of PJI and, secondly, to evaluate the infection-free survival of this patient group. Methods: We retrospectively reviewed 30 patients who underwent gastrocnemius flap reconstruction during staged revision total knee arthroplasty for prosthetic joint infection (PJI). All flaps were performed by an orthopaedic surgeon with orthoplastics training. Patients had a mean age of 68.9 years (range 50–84) and were followed up for a mean of 50.4 months (range 2–128 months). A total of 29 patients (97 %) were categorized into Musculoskeletal Infection Society (MSIS) local extremity grade 3 (greater than two compromising factors), and 52 % of PJIs were polymicrobial. The primary outcome measure was flap failure, and the secondary outcome measure was a recurrent infection. Results: Flap survival was 100% with no failures or early returns to theatre for flap problems such as necrosis or haematoma. Overall infection-free survival during the study period was 48% (13 of 27 infected cases). Using limb salvage as the outcome, 77% (23 of 30 patients) retained the limb. Infection recurrence occurred in 48% (10 patients) in the type B3 cohort and 67% (4 patients) in the type C3 cohort (p = 0.65). Conclusion: The surgical technique for a gastrocnemius myofascial flap is reliable and reproducible when performed by appropriately trained orthopaedic surgeons, even in high-risk groups. However, the risks of recurrent infection and amputation remain high within our series due to poor host and extremity factors.

Keywords: gastrocnemius flap, limb salvage, revision arthroplasty, outcomes

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Authors: Lidia Sanchis-Marco, Antonio Rubia

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In this paper we analyze the state-dependent risk-spillover in different economic areas. To this end, we apply the quantile regression-based methodology developed in Adams, Füss and Gropp approach to examine the spillover in conditional tails of daily returns of indices of the banking industry in the US, BRICs, Peripheral EMU, Core EMU, Scandinavia, the UK and Emerging Markets. This methodology allow us to characterize size, direction and strength of financial contagion in a network of bilateral exposures to address cross-border vulnerabilities under different states of the economy. The general evidence shows as the spillover effects are higher and more significant in volatile periods than in tranquil ones. There is evidence of tail spillovers of which much is attributable to a spillover from the US on the rest of the analyzed regions, specially on European countries. In sharp contrast, the US banking system show more financial resilience against foreign shocks.

Keywords: spillover effects, Bank Contagion, SDSVaR, expected shortfall, VaR, expectiles

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Authors: Maha Abdulmajeed, Nagwa Fahmy

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Improving journalism practice in the UAE requires a clear understanding of the mid-career training environment; what Arab journalists’ think about the professional training available to them, what training needs they have and still not achieved, and what factors they think it could help to improve the mid-career training outcomes. This research paper examines the validity and effectiveness of mid-career professional journalistic training in the UAE. The research focuses on Arab journalists’ perceptions and attitudes towards professional training, and the state of journalistic training courses available to them, in comparison to modern trends of professional training. The two main objectives of this paper are to examine how different factors affect the effectiveness of the mid-career training offered to Arab Journalists in UAE, whether they are institutional factories, socio-economic factors, personal factors, etc. Then, to suggest a practical roadmap to improve the mid-career journalism training in the UAE. The research methodology combines qualitative and quantitative approaches. As researchers conduct in-depth interviews with a sample of Arab journalists in the UAE, Media outlets in UAE encompass private and governmental entities, with media products in Arabic and/or English, online and/or offline as well. Besides, content analysis will be applied to the available online and offline journalistic training courses offered to Arab journalists’ in UAE along the past three years. Research outcomes are expected to be helpful and practical to improve professional training in the UAE and to determine comprehensive and concrete criteria to provide up-to-date professional training, and to evaluate its validity. Results and research outcomes can help to better understand the current status of mid-career journalistic training in the UAE, to evaluate it based on studying both; the targeted trainees and the up-to-date journalistic training trends.

Keywords: Arab journalists, Arab journalism culture, journalism practice, journalism and technology

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Authors: Iulia E. Falcan

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The transition of the European power sector towards a clean, renewable energy (RE) system faces the challenge of meeting power demand in times of low wind speed and low solar radiation, at a reasonable cost. This is likely to be achieved through a combination of 1) energy storage technologies, 2) development of the cross-border power grid, 3) installed overcapacity of RE and 4) dispatchable power sources – such as biomass. This paper uses NASA; derived hourly data on weather patterns of sixteen European countries for the past twenty-five years, and load data from the European Network of Transmission System Operators-Electricity (ENTSO-E), to develop a stochastic optimization model. This model aims to understand the synergies between the four classes of technologies mentioned above and to determine the optimal configuration of the energy technologies portfolio. While this issue has been addressed before, it was done so using deterministic models that extrapolated historic data on weather patterns and power demand, as well as ignoring the risk of an unbalanced grid-risk stemming from both the supply and the demand side. This paper aims to explicitly account for the inherent uncertainty in the energy system transition. It articulates two levels of uncertainty: a) the inherent uncertainty in future weather patterns and b) the uncertainty of fully meeting power demand. The first level of uncertainty is addressed by developing probability distributions for future weather data and thus expected power output from RE technologies, rather than known future power output. The latter level of uncertainty is operationalized by introducing a Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) constraint in the portfolio optimization problem. By setting the risk threshold at different levels – 1%, 5% and 10%, important insights are revealed regarding the synergies of the different energy technologies, i.e., the circumstances under which they behave as either complements or substitutes to each other. The paper concludes that allowing for uncertainty in expected power output - rather than extrapolating historic data - paints a more realistic picture and reveals important departures from results of deterministic models. In addition, explicitly acknowledging the risk of an unbalanced grid - and assigning it different thresholds - reveals non-linearity in the cost functions of different technology portfolio configurations. This finding has significant implications for the design of the European energy mix.

Keywords: cross-border grid extension, energy storage technologies, energy system transition, stochastic portfolio optimization

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Authors: Ekapon Thienthaworn

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This research aims to study the reliability of the forecasting factor in social media by using survey research methods with questionnaires. The sampling is the group of undergraduate students in Bangkok. A multiple-step random number of 400 persons, data analysis are descriptive statistics with multivariate regression analysis. The research found the average of the overall trust at the intermediate level for reading the news in social media and the results of the multivariate regression analysis to find out the factors that forecast credibility of the media found the only content that has the power to forecast reliability of undergraduate students in Bangkok to reading the news on social media at the significance level.at 0.05.These can be factors with forecasts reliability of news in social media by a variable that has the highest influence factor of the media content and the speed is also important for reliability of the news.

Keywords: credibility of news, behaviors and attitudes, social media, web board

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Authors: Chetsada Noknoi

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The acceptance of Y series refers to the willingness and enjoyment of watching Y series without feeling different from general series. This occurs when people watch Y series and derive happiness and entertainment from it. The viewing experience has the most significant impact on Y series acceptance. This research aims to 1) investigate the levels of acceptance of sexual diversity, image of Y series Actors, media exposure, and Y series acceptance among the residents in three southern border provinces of Thailand, and 2) examine how acceptance of sexual diversity, actor perceptions in Y series, and media exposure influence Y series acceptance in these provinces. The sample consisted of 322 participants from the three southern border provinces of Thailand. The research instrument used was a questionnaire, and data were analyzed using frequency, percentage, mean, standard deviation, and multiple regression analysis. The findings revealed that overall, acceptance of sexual diversity, Image of Y series Actors, and Y series acceptance among the residents in three southern border provinces of Thailand were at a high level, while media exposure was moderate overall. However, the two factors that had the most significant impact on Y series acceptance in these provinces, ranked from highest to lowest influence, were media exposure and acceptance of sexual diversity. Both of these factors had a positive effect on Y series acceptance among the residents in three southern border provinces of Thailand. Collectively, these factors accounted for 40.7% of the variance in Y series acceptance among the residents in three southern border provinces of Thailand.

Keywords: acceptance, acceptance of sexual diversity, image of Y series actors, media exposure, Y series

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Authors: Terry Liang Khin Teo, Sun Woh Lye, Kai Lun Brendon Goh

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As applied to dynamic monitoring situations, the prevailing approach to situation awareness (SA) assumes that the relevant areas of interest (AOI) be perceived before that information can be processed further to affect decision-making and, thereafter, action. It is not entirely clear whether this is the case. This study seeks to investigate the monitoring of dynamic objects through matching eye fixations with the relevant AOIs in boundary-crossing scenarios. By this definition, a match is where a fixation is registered on the AOI. While many factors may affect monitoring characteristics, traffic simulations were designed in this study to explore two factors, namely: the number of inbounds/outbound traffic transfers and the number of entry and/or exit points in a radar monitoring sector. These two factors were graded into five levels of difficulty ranging from low to high traffic flow numbers. Combined permutation in terms of levels of difficulty of these two factors yielded a total of thirty scenarios. Through this, results showed that changes in the traffic flow numbers on transfer resulted in greater variations having match limits ranging from 29%-100%, as compared to the number of sector entry/exit points of range limit from 80%-100%. The subsequent analysis is able to determine the type and combination of traffic scenarios where imperfect matching is likely to occur.

Keywords: air traffic simulation, eye-tracking, visual monitoring, focus attention

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Authors: Beatriz González-rodrigo, Diego Hidalgo-leiva, Omar Flores, Claudia Germoso, Maribel Jiménez-martínez, Laura Navas-sánchez, Belén Orta, Nicola Tarque, Orlando Hernández- Rubio, Miguel Marchamalo, Juan Gregorio Rejas, Belén Benito-oterino

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Cities facing seismic hazard necessitate detailed risk assessments for effective urban planning and vulnerability identification, ensuring the safety and sustainability of urban infrastructure. Comprehensive studies involving seismic hazard, vulnerability, and exposure evaluations are pivotal for estimating potential losses and guiding proactive measures against seismic events. However, broad-scale traditional risk studies limit consideration of specific local threats and identify vulnerable housing within a structural typology. Achieving precise results at neighbourhood levels demands higher resolution seismic hazard exposure, and vulnerability studies. This research aims to bolster sustainability and safety against seismic disasters in three Central American and Caribbean capitals. It integrates geospatial techniques and artificial intelligence into seismic risk studies, proposing cost-effective methods for exposure data collection and damage prediction. The methodology relies on prior seismic threat studies in pilot zones, utilizing existing exposure and vulnerability data in the region. Emphasizing detailed building attributes enables the consideration of behaviour modifiers affecting seismic response. The approach aims to generate detailed risk scenarios, facilitating prioritization of preventive actions pre-, during, and post-seismic events, enhancing decision-making certainty. Detailed risk scenarios necessitate substantial investment in fieldwork, training, research, and methodology development. Regional cooperation becomes crucial given similar seismic threats, urban planning, and construction systems among involved countries. The outcomes hold significance for emergency planning and national and regional construction regulations. The success of this methodology depends on cooperation, investment, and innovative approaches, offering insights and lessons applicable to regions facing moderate seismic threats with vulnerable constructions. Thus, this framework aims to fortify resilience in seismic-prone areas and serves as a reference for global urban planning and disaster management strategies. In conclusion, this research proposes a comprehensive framework for seismic risk assessment in high-risk urban areas, emphasizing detailed studies at finer resolutions for precise vulnerability evaluations. The approach integrates regional cooperation, geospatial technologies, and adaptive fragility curve adjustments to enhance risk assessment accuracy, guiding effective mitigation strategies and emergency management plans.

Keywords: assessment, behaviour modifiers, emergency management, mitigation strategies, resilience, vulnerability

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Authors: Nuha Alamro

Abstract:

Besides achieving of weight loss, Bariatric surgery (BS) shown metabolic improvement including reduction of cardiovascular disease, insulin resistance and diabetes. This study aimed to measure BS effects on Framingham Risk Score (FRS) and metabolic syndrome (MetS) among patients who underwent BS. Additionally, to determine the effect of BS on TSH among euthyroid obese patients. A Retrospective follow-up study was conducted in King Abdullah Medical City. A total of 160 participants who underwent BS and completed one year of follow ups. Medical history, biochemical, anthropometric, and hormonal parameters were evaluated at baseline and 3-12 months after BS. International Diabetes Federation (IDF) criteria were used to diagnose MetS pre and postoperative. The mean age of participants was 41.9 ± 10.6 with Body Mass Index (BMI) of 48.8 ± 7.3. After 3 months, Systolic, Diastolic blood pressure (SBP, DBP), glycated haemoglobin (HBA1C), Low-density lipoprotein (LDL), cholesterol, triglycerides and Thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH) were significantly decrease (P < 0.001). Significant decrease was seen in Mets, BMI, FRS, SBP, DBP, HBA1C, LDL, triglycerides, cholesterol, liver enzyme, with significant increase in high-density lipoprotein (HDL) level 12 months post-op (P < 0.001). After 1 year, the prevalence of MetS, DM, HTN, FRS were significantly decrease from 72.5%, 43.1%, 78.1%, 11.4 to 16.3%, 9.4%, 22.5% and 5.4, respectively. Besides achieving substantial weight loss, MetS resolution was linked to improvement in cardiovascular risk profile.

Keywords: bariatric surgery, cardiovascular disease, metabolic syndrome, thyroid stimulating hormone

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Authors: Manoj Kumar, Preeti Goel

Abstract:

National Capital Region of India is one of the most populous urban agglomerations in the world. This region has residents from all the parts of India, and their shopping behaviors are quite different. The region also has the substantial population of people from other countries. Due to high purchasing power of a large number of people, NCR is one the major markets for luxury fashion brands. Marketers of luxury fashion brands keep on adding innovative features to their products to attract the buyers. This research is an attempt to understand the major factors which impact the brand selection for these brands and other buying decisions like purchasing time and location. The research is based on primary data collected from potential buyers of luxury fashion brands and the people involved in the marketing of these brands in various roles. The research has tried to identify the relative strength of various factors on the shopping behavior for these brands.

Keywords: luxury brands, fashion, shopping, National Capital Region (NCR)

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Authors: Firouz Amani, Adalat Hoseinian, Sajjad Hakimian

Abstract:

Background: The mortality due to Myocardial Infarction (MI) is often occur during the first hours after onset of symptom. So, for taking the necessary treatment and decreasing the mortality rate, timely visited of the hospital could be effective in this regard. The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of effective factors in mortality of MI patients by using Linear Logistic Regression. Materials and Methods: In this case-control study, all patients with Acute MI who referred to the Ardabil city hospital were studied. All of died patients were considered as the case group (n=27) and we select 27 matched patients without Acute MI as a control group. Data collected for all patients in two groups by a same checklist and then analyzed by SPSS version 24 software using statistical methods. We used the linear logistic regression model to determine the effective factors on mortality of MI patients. Results: The mean age of patients in case group was significantly higher than control group (75.1±11.7 vs. 63.1±11.6, p=0.001).The history of non-cardinal diseases in case group with 44.4% significantly higher than control group with 7.4% (p=0.002).The number of performed PCIs in case group with 40.7% significantly lower than control group with 74.1% (P=0.013). The time distance between hospital admission and performed PCI in case group with 110.9 min was significantly upper than control group with 56 min (P=0.001). The mean of delay time from Onset of symptom to hospital admission (patient delay) and the mean of delay time from hospital admissions to receive treatment (system delay) was similar between two groups. By using logistic regression model we revealed that history of non-cardinal diseases (OR=283) and the number of performed PCIs (OR=24.5) had significant impact on mortality of MI patients in compare to other factors. Conclusion: Results of this study showed that of all studied factors, the number of performed PCIs, history of non-cardinal illness and the interval between onset of symptoms and performed PCI have significant relation with morality of MI patients and other factors were not meaningful. So, doing more studies with a large sample and investigated other involved factors such as smoking, weather and etc. is recommended in future.

Keywords: acute MI, mortality, heart failure, arrhythmia

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Authors: Rimac Smiljanic Ana, Pepur Sandra, Bulog Ivana

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Financial decision-making in the household is not simple, and it demands that the decision-maker has proper knowledge and skills. Usually, high uncertainty, risk, and stress surround household financial decision-making since it is extremely important and critical for household wealth accumulation and for the well-being of all household members. Generally, skilful people tend to have higher confidence in certain tasks they perform, and they achieve better results. Therefore, in the household context, the possession of certain skills by the ones who make financial decisions for the household is of particular importance. This paper addresses financial literacy as an important skill for household decision-making. Apart from financial literacy, the paper also considers other factors, such as employment, education, and age, as significant for household financial decision-making. The analysis is based on quantitative individual-level survey data. The data collection was conducted during January and February 2021 in Croatia through an online survey. To reach a wide variety of participants, the snowball sampling method was used. The result revealed interesting and somewhat puzzling results. Our results point to the importance of financial literacy skills for household decision-making.

Keywords: skill, financial literacy, decision-making, household financijal decision making

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Authors: O. J. Akinsola, Yinan Zheng, Rose Anorlu, F. T. Ogunsola, Lifang Hou, Robert Leo-Murphy

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Cervical Cancer (CC) is the 2nd most common cancer among women living in low and middle-income countries, with no associated symptoms during formative periods. With the advancement and innovative medical research, there are numerous preventive measures being utilized, but the incidence of cervical cancer cannot be truncated with the application of only screening tests. The mortality associated with this invasive cervical cancer can be nipped in the bud through the important role of early-stage detection. This study research selected an array of different top features selection techniques which was aimed at developing a model that could validly diagnose the risk factors of cervical cancer. A retrospective clinic-based cohort study was conducted on 178 HIV-associated cervical cancer patients in Lagos University teaching Hospital, Nigeria (U54 data repository) in April 2022. The outcome measure was the automated prediction of the HIV-associated cervical cancer cases, while the predictor variables include: demographic information, reproductive history, birth control, sexual history, cervical cancer screening history for invasive cervical cancer. The proposed technique was assessed with R and Python programming software to produce the model by utilizing the classification algorithms for the detection and diagnosis of cervical cancer disease. Four machine learning classification algorithms used are: the machine learning model was split into training and testing dataset into ratio 80:20. The numerical features were also standardized while hyperparameter tuning was carried out on the machine learning to train and test the data. Logistic Regression (LR), Decision Tree (DT), Random Forest (RF), and K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN). Some fitting features were selected for the detection and diagnosis of cervical cancer diseases from selected characteristics in the dataset using the contribution of various selection methods for the classification cervical cancer into healthy or diseased status. The mean age of patients was 49.7±12.1 years, mean age at pregnancy was 23.3±5.5 years, mean age at first sexual experience was 19.4±3.2 years, while the mean BMI was 27.1±5.6 kg/m2. A larger percentage of the patients are Married (62.9%), while most of them have at least two sexual partners (72.5%). Age of patients (OR=1.065, p<0.001**), marital status (OR=0.375, p=0.011**), number of pregnancy live-births (OR=1.317, p=0.007**), and use of birth control pills (OR=0.291, p=0.015**) were found to be significantly associated with HIV-associated cervical cancer. On top ten 10 features (variables) considered in the analysis, RF claims the overall model performance, which include: accuracy of (72.0%), the precision of (84.6%), a recall of (84.6%) and F1-score of (74.0%) while LR has: an accuracy of (74.0%), precision of (70.0%), recall of (70.0%) and F1-score of (70.0%). The RF model identified 10 features predictive of developing cervical cancer. The age of patients was considered as the most important risk factor, followed by the number of pregnancy livebirths, marital status, and use of birth control pills, The study shows that data mining techniques could be used to identify women living with HIV at high risk of developing cervical cancer in Nigeria and other sub-Saharan African countries.

Keywords: associated cervical cancer, data mining, random forest, logistic regression

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Authors: Mehrnoosh Abouzari

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Artificial intelligence has covered all areas of human life and has helped or replaced many jobs. One of the areas of application of artificial intelligence in the police is to detect crime, identify the accused or victim and prove the crime. It will play an effective role in implementing preventive justice and creating security in the community, and improving judicial decisions. This will help improve the performance of the police, increase the accuracy of criminal investigations, and play an effective role in preventing crime and high-risk behaviors in society. This article presents and analyzes the capabilities and capacities of artificial intelligence in police and similar examples used worldwide to prove the necessity of using artificial intelligence in the police. The main topics discussed include the performance of artificial intelligence in crime detection and prediction, the risk capacity of criminals and the ability to apply arbitray institutions, and the introduction of artificial intelligence programs implemented worldwide in the field of criminal investigation for police.

Keywords: police, artificial intelligence, forecasting, prevention, software

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Authors: Muhammad Waiz, Rana Maruf Tahir, Fatima Javaid

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Technology in the recent times is available for everyone in the world that no one is left behind. After getting technology into our daily routine, there is a need to study the different factors regarding online shopping. This study examines the impact of online reviews, mobile shopping and computer literacy on online purchasing intention. The sample size was 200 from which 167 complete questionnaires were collected from students and employees of twin cities. SPSS programming software was used to analyze the impact of different factors on purchasing intention. The results of this study showed that those websites which have good ratings and have online shopping application will attract more customers towards them whereas the results showed that the computer literacy has no impact on online purchasing intention. Findings may help for those who want to increase their sales or to start a new online business. Future research, limitations, and implications are discussed.

Keywords: computer literacy, mobile shopping, online purchase intention, online reviews, theory of planned behavior

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Authors: Olarinde Olaniran, Oluyomi A. Sowemimo

Abstract:

Toxoplasmosis is frequently misdiagnosed or underdiagnosed, and it is the third most common cause of hospitalization due to food-borne infection. Intra-uterine infection with Toxoplasma gondii due to active parasitaemia during pregnancy can cause severe and often fatal cerebral damage, abortion, and stillbirth of a fetus. The aim of the study was to investigate the prevalence of T. gondii infection in women of childbearing age in selected communities of Osun State with a view to determining the risk factors which predispose to the T. gondii infection. Five (5) ml of blood was collected by venopuncture into a plain blood collection tube by a medical laboratory scientist. Serum samples were separated by centrifuging the blood samples at 3000 rpm for 5 mins. The sera were collected with Eppendorf tubes and stored at -20°C analysis for the presence of IgG and IgM antibodies against T. gondii by commercially available enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) kit (Demeditec Diagnostics GmbH, Germany) conducted according to the manufacturer’s instructions. The optical densities of wells were measured by a photometer at a wavelength of 450 nm. Data collected were analysed using appropriate computer software. The overall seroprevalence of T. gondii among the women of child-bearing age in selected seven communities in Osun state was 76.3%. Out of 76.3% positive for Toxoplasma gondii infection, 70.0% were positive for anti- T. gondii IgG, and 32.3% were positive for IgM, and 26.7% for both IgG and IgM. The prevalence of T. gondii was lowest (58.9%) among women from Ile Ife, a peri-urban community, and highest (100%) in women residing in Alajue, a rural community. The prevalence of infection was significantly higher (P= 0.000) among Islamic women (87.5%) than in Christian women (70.8%). The highest prevalence (86.3%) was recorded in women with primary education, while the lowest (61.2%) was recorded in women with tertiary education (p =0.016). The highest prevalence (79.7%) was recorded in women that reside in rural areas, and the lowest (70.1%) was recorded in women that reside in peri-urban area (p=0.025). The prevalence of T. gondii infection was highest (81.4%) in women with one miscarriage, while the prevalence was lowest in women with no miscarriages (75.9%). The age of the women (p=0.042), Islamic religion (p=0.001), the residence of the women (p=0.001), and water source were all positively associated with T. gondii infection. The study concluded that there was a high seroprevalence of T. gondii recorded among women of child-bearing age in the study area. Hence, there is a need for health education and create awareness of the disease and its transmission to women of reproductive age group in general and pregnant women in particular to reduce the risk of T. gondii in pregnant women.

Keywords: seroepidemiology, Toxoplasma gondii, women, child-bearing, age, communities, Ile -Ife, Nigeria

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