Search results for: selection of risk measures

Authors: Netta Horesh Reinman

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The inability to communicate feelings and thoughts to people close to oneself may be an important risk factor for suicidal behavior. This inability has been operationalized in the concept of “self-disclosure.” The purpose of this paper was to evaluate the correlation of self-disclosure with suicidal behavior in adolescents. Eighty consecutive admissions to an adolescent psychiatric inpatient unit were evaluated. Thirty-four were suicide attempters, 18 were suicidal ideators, and 18 were non-suicidal. Assessment measures included the Child Suicide Potential Scale, the Suicide Intent Scale, the Suicide Ideation Scale, and the Self-Disclosure Scale. The results show that low self-disclosure levels are associated with suicidal thinking, suicide attempts and suicidal attitudes. Thus, low self-disclosure may well be a risk factor worthy of further evaluation in the attempt to understand adolescent suicidal behavior.

Keywords: self disclosure, suicide, adolescents, treatment

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Authors: E. Bal Beşikçi, O. Arslan

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Fuel saving has become one of the most important issue for shipping in terms of fuel economy and environmental impact. Lowering fuel consumption is possible for both new ships and existing ships through enhanced energy efficiency measures, technical and operational respectively. The limitations of applying technical measures due to the long payback duration raise the potential of operational changes for energy efficient ship operations. This study identifies operational energy efficiency measures related voyage performance management. We use ‘noon’ data to examine the correlation between fuel consumption and operational parameters- revolutions per minute (RPM), draft, trim, (beaufort number) BN and relative wind direction, which are used as measures of ship energy efficiency. The results of this study reveal that speed optimization is the most efficient method as fuel consumption depends heavily on RPM. In conclusion, this study will provide ship operators with the strategic approach for evaluating the priority of the operational energy efficiency measures against high fuel prices and carbon emissions.

Keywords: ship, voyage related operational energy Efficiency measures, fuel consumption, pearson's correlation coefficient

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Authors: Zhizhong Yuan, Lili Wang, Chenya Zheng, Wuqi Yang

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How to encourage and support peer-to-peer (P2P) network lending, and effectively monitor the risk of P2P network lending, has become the focus of the Chinese government departments, industrialists, experts and scholars in recent years. The reason is that this convenient online micro-credit service brings a series of credit risks and other issues. Avoiding the risks brought by the P2P network lending model, it can better play a benign role and help China's small and medium-sized private enterprises with vigorous development to solve the capital needs; otherwise, it will bring confusion to the normal financial order. As a form of financial services, P2P network lending has injected new blood into China's non-government finance in the past ten years, and has found a way out for idle funds and made up for the shortage of traditional financial services in China. However, it lacks feasible measures in credit evaluation and government supervision. This paper collects a large amount of data about P2P network lending of China. The data collection comes from the official media of the Chinese government, the public achievements of existing researchers and the analysis and collation of correlation data by the authors. The research content of this paper includes literature review; the current situation of China's P2P network lending development; the risk analysis of P2P network lending in China; the risk prevention strategy of P2P network lending in China. The focus of this paper is to try to find a specific program to strengthen supervision and avoid risks from the perspective of government regulators, operators of P2P network lending platform, investors and users of funds. These main measures include: China needs to develop self-discipline organization of P2P network lending industry and formulate self-discipline norms as soon as possible; establish a regular information disclosure system of P2P network lending platform; establish censorship of credit rating of borrowers; rectify the P2P network lending platform in compliance through the implementation of bank deposition. The results and solutions will benefit all the P2P network lending platforms, creditors, debtors, bankers, independent auditors and government agencies of China and other countries.

Keywords: peer-to-peer(P2P), regulation, risk prevention, supervision

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Authors: I. Iremashvili, I. Pirtskhalaishvili, K. Kiknadze, F. Lortkipanidze

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The paper deals with the causes of rockfall and its possible consequences on slopes adjacent to motorways and railways. A list of measures is given that hinder rockfall; these measures are directed at protecting roads from rockfalls, and not preventing them. From the standpoint of local stability of slopes the main effective measure is perhaps strengthening their surface by the method of filling, which will check or end (or both) the process of deformation, local slipping off, sliding off and development of erosion.

Keywords: rockfall, concrete spraying, heliodevices, railways

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Authors: Anders Troedsson

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For us humans, risks are intimately linked to human vulnerabilities - where there is vulnerability, there is potentially insecurity, and risk. Reducing vulnerability through compensatory measures means increasing security and decreasing risk. The paper suggests that a meaningful way to approach the study of risks (including threats, assaults, crisis etc.), is to understand the vulnerabilities these external phenomena evoke in humans. As is argued, the basis of risk evaluation, as well as responses, is the more or less subjective perception by the individual person, or a group of persons, exposed to the external event or phenomena in question. This will be determined primarily by the vulnerability or vulnerabilities that the external factor are perceived to evoke. In this way, risk perception is primarily an inward dynamic, rather than an outward one. Therefore, a route towards an understanding of the perception of risks, is a closer scrutiny of the vulnerabilities which they can evoke, thereby approaching an understanding of what in the paper is called the essence of risk (including threat, assault etc.), or that which a certain perceived risk means to an individual or group of individuals. As a necessary basis for gauging the wide spectrum of potential risks and their meaning, the paper proposes a model of human vulnerabilities, drawing from i.a. a long tradition of needs theory. In order to account for the subjectivity factor, which mediates between the innate vulnerabilities on the one hand, and the event or phenomenon out there on the other hand, an ensuing ontological discussion about the timespace characteristics of risk/threat/assault as perceived by humans leads to the positing of two dimensions. These two dimensions are applied on the vulnerabilities, resulting in a modelling effort featuring four realms of vulnerabilities which are related to each other and together represent a dynamic whole. In approaching the problem of risk perception, the paper thus defines the relevant realms of vulnerabilities, depicting them as a dynamic whole. With reference to a substantial body of literature and a growing international policy trend since the 1990s, this model is put in the language of human security - a concept relevant not only for international security studies and policy, but also for other academic disciplines and spheres of human endeavor.

Keywords: human security, timespace, vulnerabilities, risk perception

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Authors: Mohammad E. Nikoofal, Mehmet Gumus

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Besides the many benefits of outsourcing, firms are still concerned about the lack of critical information regarding both the risk levels and actions of their suppliers that are just a few links away. In this paper, we study the effectiveness of audit for the manufacturer in managing her supplier’s process improvement effort when the supplier is privately informed about his disruption risk and actions. By comparing the agency costs associated with the optimal menu of contracts with and without audit, we completely characterize the value of audit for all the cases from the perspectives of both manufacturer, and supplier as well as total supply chain. First, the analysis of value of audit from the manufacturer’s perspective shows that she can strictly benefit from auditing her supplier’s actions. To the best of our knowledge, this result has not been documented before in the principal-agent literature under a standard setting where the agent is assumed to be risk-neutral and not protected by limited liability constraints. Second, we find that not only the manufacturer but also the supplier can strictly benefit from audit. Third, the audit enables the manufacturer to customize her contract offerings based on the reliability of the supplier. Finally, by analyzing the impact of problem parameters on the value of audit, we identify the conditions under which an audit would be beneficial for individual supply chain parties as well as total supply chain.

Keywords: supply disruption, adverse selection, moral hazard incentives, audit

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Authors: Eylem Koç, Hasan Arda Burhan

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Location selection presents a crucial decision problem in today’s business world where strategic decision making processes have critical importance. Thus, location selection has strategic importance for companies in boosting their strength regarding competition, increasing corporate performances and efficiency in addition to lowering production and transportation costs. A right choice in location selection has a direct impact on companies’ commercial success. In this study, a store location selection problem of Carglass Turkey which operates in vehicle glass branch is handled. As this problem includes both tangible and intangible criteria, Analytic Network Process (ANP) was accepted as the main methodology. The model consists of control hierarchy and BOCR subnetworks which include clusters of actors, alternatives and criteria. In accordance with the management’s choices, five different locations were selected. In addition to the literature review, a strict cooperation with the actor group was ensured and maintained while determining the criteria and during whole process. Obtained results were presented to the management as a report and its feasibility was confirmed accordingly.

Keywords: analytic network process (ANP), BOCR, multi-actor decision making, multi-criteria decision making, real-life problem, location selection

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Authors: Maria M. Giannakou, Athanasios K. Ziliaskopoulos

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Transmission pipelines carrying natural gas are often routed through populated cities, industrial and environmentally sensitive areas. While the need for these networks is unquestionable, there are serious concerns about the risk these lifeline networks pose to the people, to their habitat and to the critical infrastructures, especially in view of natural disasters such as earthquakes. This work presents an Integrated Pipeline Risk Management methodology (IPRM) for assessing the hazard associated with a natural gas pipeline failure due to natural or manmade disasters. IPRM aims to optimize the allocation of the available resources to countermeasures in order to minimize the impacts of pipeline failure to humans, the environment, the infrastructure and the economic activity. A proposed knapsack mathematical programming formulation is introduced that optimally selects the proper mitigation policies based on the estimated cost – benefit ratios. The proposed model is demonstrated with a small numerical example. The vulnerability analysis of these pipelines and the quantification of consequences from such failures can be useful for natural gas industries on deciding which mitigation measures to implement on the existing pipeline networks with the minimum cost in an acceptable level of hazard.

Keywords: cost benefit analysis, knapsack problem, natural gas distribution network, risk management, risk mitigation

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Authors: Islah Ud Din, Amna Bibi

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The current study was carried out to examine the perceived social support, resilience and relapse risk in recovered addicts. A purposive sampling technique was used to collect data from recovered addicts. A multidimensional scale of perceived social support by was used to measure the perceived social support. The brief Resilience Scale (BRS) was used to assess resilience. The Stimulant Relapse Risk Scale (SRRS) was used to examine the relapse risk. Resilience and Perceived social support have substantial positive correlations, whereas relapse risk and perceived social support have significant negative associations. Relapse risk and resilience have a strong inverse connection. Regression analysis was used to check the mediating effect of resilience between perceived social support and relapse risk. The findings revealed that perceived social support negatively predicted relapse risk. Results showed that Resilience plays a role as partial mediation between perceived social support and relapse risk. This Research will allow us to explore and understand the relapse risk factor and the role of perceived social support and resilience in recovered addicts. The study's findings have immediate consequences in the prevention of relapse. The study will play a significant part in drug rehabilitation centers, clinical settings and further research.

Keywords: perceived social support, resilience, relapse risk, recovered addicts, drugs addiction

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Authors: Sarah Ullrich, Juliane Rolle, Christian Beste, Nicole Wolff

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Inhibition and cognitive flexibility are essential parts of executive functions in our daily lives, as they enable the avoidance of unwanted responses or selectively switch between mental processes to generate appropriate behavior. There is growing interest in improving inhibition and response selection through brief mindfulness-based meditations. Arguably, open-monitoring meditation (OMM) improves inhibitory and flexibility performance by optimizing cognitive control and information processing. Yet, the underlying neurophysiological processes have been poorly studied. Using the Simon-Go/Nogo paradigm, the present work examined the effect of a single 15-minute smartphone app-based OMM on inhibitory performance and response selection in meditation novices. We used both behavioral and neurophysiological measures (event-related potentials, ERPs) to investigate which subprocesses of response selection and inhibition are altered after OMM. The study was conducted in a randomized crossover design with N = 32 healthy adults. We thereby investigated Go and Nogo trials in the paradigm. The results show that as little as 15 minutes of OMM can improve response selection and inhibition at behavioral and neurophysiological levels. More specifically, OMM reduces the rate of false alarms, especially during Nogo trials regardless of congruency. It appears that OMM optimizes conflict processing and response inhibition compared to no meditation, also reflected in the ERP N2 and P3 time windows. The results may be explained by the meta control model, which argues in terms of a specific processing mode with increased flexibility and inclusive decision-making under OMM. Importantly, however, the effects of OMM were only evident when there was the prior experience with the task. It is likely that OMM provides more cognitive resources, as the amplitudes of these EKPs decreased. OMM novices seem to induce finer adjustments during conflict processing after familiarization with the task.

Keywords: EEG, inhibition, meditation, Simon Nogo

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Authors: Dixit Garg, S. Luthra, A. Haleem

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During recent years, the natural environment has become a challenging topic that business organizations must consider due to the economic and ecological impacts and increasing awareness of environment protection among society. Organizations are trying to achieve the goals of improvement in environment, low cost, high quality, flexibility and more customer satisfaction. Performance measurement frameworks are very useful to monitor the performance of any organization. The basic goal of this paper is to identify performance measures and ranking of these performance measures of GSCM performance measurement towards sustainability framework. Five perspectives (Environment, Economic, Social, Operational and Cost performances) and nineteen performance measures of GSCM performance towards sustainability have been have been identified from extensive literature review. Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) technique has been utilized for ranking of these performance perspectives and measures. All pair comparisons in AHP have been made on the basis on the experts’ opinions (selected from academia and industry). Ranking of these performance perspectives and measures will help to understand the importance of environmental, economic, social, operational performances, and cost performances in the supply chain.

Keywords: analytical hierarchy process, green supply chain management, performance measures, sustainability

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Authors: Michael Ajide Oyinloye

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The natural environment is made up of air, water and soil. The release of emission of industrial waste into anyone of the components of the environment causes pollution. Industrial pollution significantly threatens the inherent right of people, to the enjoyment of a safe and secure environment. The aim of this paper is to assess the effect of environmental pollution and health risks of residents living near Ewekoro Cement factory. The research made use of IKONOS imagery for Geographical Information System (GIS) to buffer and extract buildings that are less than 1 km to the plant, within 1 km to 5 km and above 5 km to the factory. Also, a questionnaire was used to elicit information on the socio-economic factors, the effect of environmental pollution on residents and measures adopted to control industrial pollution on the residents. Findings show that most buildings that between less than 1 km and 1 km to 5 km to the factory have high health risk in the study area. The study recommended total relocation for the residents of the study area to reduce risk health problems.

Keywords: environmental pollution, health risk, GIS, satellite imagery, ewekoro

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Authors: Parvin Mirmiran, Zahra Bahadoran, Nazanin Moslehi, Fereidoun Azizi

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Background and aim: We aimed to investigate the effects of green fruits and vegetables (green FV) consumption on the 3-year changes of cardiometabolic risk factors. Methods: This longitudinal study was conducted in the framework of Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study, between 2006-2008 and 2009-2011, on 1272 adults. Dietary intake of green FV, including green cabbage, broccoli, lettuce, celery, green beans, green peas, cucumber, leafy vegetables, zucchini, green chili and bell pepper, and kiwi fruit, has been assessed by a validated semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire at baseline and second examination. Demographics, anthropometrics and biochemical measures were evaluated at baseline and 3 years later. The associations of cardiometabolic risk changes with mean intake of green FV were estimated. Results: The mean age of men and women at baseline was 39.8±12.7 and 37.3±12.1 years, respectively. Mean intake of green FV was 152±77 g/d. More intake from green FV was accompanied to more intake of vitamin A, α and β-carotene, lutein, β-criptoxanthine, potassium, magnesium and fiber. Consumption of green FV was inversely associated with 3-year change of waist circumference (β= -0.07, P=0.01), total cholesterol (β= -0.11, P=0.01) and triglycerides (β= -0.13, P=0.01). Each 25 g/d increase in consumption of green FV decreased the incidence of hyper-triglyceridemia by 12% (OR:0.88, 95%CI:0.71-0.99) in men. In women, no significant association was observed between consumption of green FV with cardiometabolic risk factors. Conclusion: Higher consumption of green FV could have preventive effects against abdominal fat gain and lipid disorders.

Keywords: cardiometabolic risk factors, abdominal obesity, lipid disorders, fruits, vegetables

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Authors: Hanneke J. A. Smaling, Mandy Visser

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One way to reduce the risk of COVID-19 infection is by preventing close interpersonal contact with distancing measures. These social distancing measures presented challenges to the health and wellbeing of people with dementia and their informal and professional caregivers. This study describes the concerns and recommendations of informal and professional caregivers for COVID-19 policy for home care and long-term care for people with dementia during the first and second COVID-19 wave in the Netherlands. In this qualitative interview study, 20 informal caregivers and 20 professional caregivers from home care services and long-term care participated. Interviews were analyzed using an inductive thematic analysis approach. Both informal and professional caregivers worried about getting infected or infecting others with COVID-19, the consequences of the distancing measures, and quality of care. There was a general agreement that policy in the second wave was better informed compared to the first wave. At an organizational level, the policy was remarkably flexible. Recommendations were given for dementia care (need to offer meaningful activities, improve the organization of care, more support for informal caregivers), policy (national vs. locally organization, social isolation measures, visitor policy), and communication. Our study contributes to the foundation of future care decisions by (inter)national policymakers, politicians, and healthcare organizations during the course of the COVID-19 pandemic, underlining the need for balance between safety and autonomy for people with dementia.

Keywords: covid-19, dementia, home care, long-term care, policy

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Authors: Gerhard Grebe, Johan Marx

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The aim of the study is to assess the state of operational risk management and the adoption of an appropriate risk culture in Ghanaian banks. The Bank of Ghana (BoG) joined the Basel Consultative Group (BCG) of the Basel Committee on Bank Supervision (BCBS) in 2021 and is proceeding with the implementation of the Basel III international regulatory framework for banks. The BoG’s Directive about risk management encourages, inter alia, the creation of an appropriate risk culture by Ghanaian banks. However, it is not evident how the risk management staff of Ghanaian banks experience the risk culture and the implementation of operational risk management in the banks where they are employed. Ghana is a developing economy, and it is addressing challenges with its organisational culture. According to Transparency International, successive Ghanaian governments claim to be fighting corruption, but little success has been achieved so far. This points to a possible lack of accountability, transparency, and integrity in the environment in which Ghanaian banks operate and which could influence their risk culture negatively. Purposive sampling was used for the survey, and the questionnaire was completed byGhanaian bank personnel who specializesin operational risk management, risk governance, and compliance, bank supervision, risk analyses, as well as the implementation of the operational risk management requirements of the Basel regulatory frameworks. The respondents indicated that they are fostering a risk culture and implementing monitoring and reporting procedures; the three lines of defence (3LOD); compliance; internal auditing; disclosure of operational risk information; and receiving guidance from the bank supervisor in an attempt to improve their operational risk management practices. However, the respondents reported the following challenges with staff members who are not inside the risk management departments(in order of priority), namelydemonstrating a risk culture, training and development; communication; reporting and disclosure; roles and responsibilities; performance appraisal; and technological and environmental barriers. Recommendations to address these challenges are provided

Keywords: ghana, operational risk, risk culture, risk management

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Authors: Masoud Ghahvechi Pour

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Risk management is a systematic and regular process of identifying, analyzing and responding to risks throughout the project's life cycle in order to achieve the optimal level of elimination, reduction or control of risk. The purpose of project risk management is to increase the probability and effect of positive events and reduce the probability and effect of unpleasant events on the project. Risk management is one of the most fundamental parts of project management, so that unmanaged or untransmitted risks can be one of the primary factors of failure in a project. Effective risk management does not apply to risk regression, which is apparently the cheapest option of the activity. However, the main problem with this option is the economic sensitivity, because what is potentially profitable is by definition risky, and what does not pose a risk is economically interesting and does not bring tangible benefits. Therefore, in relation to the implemented project, effective risk management is finding a "middle ground" in its management, which includes, on the one hand, protection against risk from a negative direction by means of accurate identification and classification of risk, which leads to analysis And it becomes a comprehensive analysis. On the other hand, management using all mathematical and analytical tools should be based on checking the maximum benefits of these decisions. Detailed analysis, taking into account all aspects of the company, including stakeholder analysis, will allow us to add what will become tangible benefits for our project in the future to effective risk management. Identifying the risk of the project is based on the theory that which type of risk may affect the project, and also refers to specific parameters and estimating the probability of their occurrence in the project. These conditions can be divided into three groups: certainty, uncertainty, and risk, which in turn support three types of investment: risk preference, risk neutrality, specific risk deviation, and its measurement. The result of risk identification and project analysis is a list of events that indicate the cause and probability of an event, and a final assessment of its impact on the environment.

Keywords: risk, management, knowledge, risk management

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Authors: Dianne Williams

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This study examined the peer/individual domain of the Risk Factor Prevention Paradigm (RFPP) to assess the risk and protective factors that impact criminal gang involvement among at-risk males residing in a juvenile home in Trinidad and Tobago. The RFPP allows for the identification of both risk and protective factors in a single, holistic framework to identify the relationship between risk factors, protective factors, and criminal gang involvement among at-risk male adolescents. Findings showed that having anti-social peers was the most significant risk factor associated with criminal gang involvement, while the most significant protective factor was having a positive social attitude. Moreover, while 65% of the boys reported never having been in a gang, 70% reported having hit, struck or used a weapon against someone, while 52% reported being involved in other violent incidents on more than two occasions. This suggests that while involvement with criminal gangs may not be common among this population, predisposing behavioral patterns are present. Results are expected to assist in the development of targeted strategies to reduce the attractiveness of gang membership.

Keywords: risk factor prevention paradigm, risk factors, protective factors, peer/individual domain, gang involvement, at-risk youth, trinidad and tobago, juvenile home

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Authors: David R. LaVetter, Justin B. Homatas, Claudia Benavides Espinoza

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An increased awareness of depression rates among collegiate athletes has aided educational institutions to evaluate their mental health resources for athletes. This paper adds to our knowledge of this growing problem among collegiate athletes. National athletic associations and educational institutions are more knowledgeable of the mental health crisis facing hundreds of thousands of athletes each year, and some have implemented resources to improve mental health. However, college athletes continue to experience depressive symptoms at increasing rates. In this paper, depression rates for the vast numbers of collegiate athletes were found to be significantly greater than the general adult population. This paper used the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) method to examine the literature’s findings on depression rates among collegiate athletes. Particularly, this study answers questions related to risk factors of college athletes’ depressive symptoms. Risk factors unique to this population are also discussed. Prevalence rates by sport participant gender and sport are provided. Implementation measures in current practice at educational institutions in the U.S. are discussed to help alleviate depression rates among college athletes.

Keywords: college athletes, depression, risk factors, mental health

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Authors: Uswah Khairuddin, Rubiyah Yusof, Nenny Ruthfalydia Rosli

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This paper presents a comparative study between k-Nearest Neighbour (k-NN) and Multi-Layer Perceptron Neural Network (MLP-NN) classifier using Genetic Algorithm (GA) as feature selector for wood recognition system. The features have been extracted from the images using Grey Level Co-Occurrence Matrix (GLCM). The use of GA based feature selection is mainly to ensure that the database used for training the features for the wood species pattern classifier consists of only optimized features. The feature selection process is aimed at selecting only the most discriminating features of the wood species to reduce the confusion for the pattern classifier. This feature selection approach maintains the ‘good’ features that minimizes the inter-class distance and maximizes the intra-class distance. Wrapper GA is used with k-NN classifier as fitness evaluator (GA-kNN). The results shows that k-NN is the best choice of classifier because it uses a very simple distance calculation algorithm and classification tasks can be done in a short time with good classification accuracy.

Keywords: feature selection, genetic algorithm, optimization, wood recognition system

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Authors: K. Omkar, D. Nayan

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Rapid urbanization is one of the consequences of rapid population explosion, which has also led to massive increase in number of motorized vehicles essential for carrying out all activities needed for sustaining urban livelihood. With this increased use of motorized vehicles over the time there has also been an increase in number of accidents. Study of road network and geometric features are essential to tackle problems of road accidents in any district or town. The increase in road accidents is one of the burning issues in the present society. Records show that there is one death at every 3.7 minutes because of road accident. It has been found from the research that, accidents occur due to, mistakes of the driver (86%) followed by bad street condition (5%), mistake of pedestrian (4%), as well as technical and maintenance defects (1%). Here, case study of Ahmedabad, Gujarat is taken up where first road safety level is assessed considering various parameters. The study confined to accident characteristics of all types of vehicles. For deeper analysis, road safety index for various stretches in Ahmedabad was found out. Crash rate for same stretches was found out. Based on various parameters priority was decided so that which stretch should be look out first to minimize road accidents on that stretch and which stretch should look out last. The major findings of the study are that accident severity of Ahmedabad has increased, but accident fatality risk has decreased; thus there is need to undertake some traffic engineering measures or make some traffic rules that are strictly followed by traffic. From the above study and literature studied it is found that Ahmedabad is suffering from similar problem of accidents and injuries and deaths caused by them, after properly investigating the issue short-term and long-term solutions to minimize road accidents have been presented in this paper.

Keywords: accident severity index, accident fatality rate, accident fatality risk, accident risk, road safety index

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Authors: Ulas Cinar, Omer Faruk Ugurlu, Selcuk Cebi

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Occupational safety risk management is the most important element of a safe working environment. Effective risk management can only be possible with accurate analysis and evaluations. Scoring-based risk assessment methods offer considerable ease of application as they convert linguistic expressions into numerical results. It can also be easily adapted to any field. Contrary to all these advantages, important problems in scoring-based methods are frequently discussed. Effective measurability is one of the most critical problems. Existing methods allow experts to choose a score equivalent to each parameter. Therefore, experts prefer the score of the most likely outcome for risk. However, all other possible consequences are neglected. Assessments of the existing methods express the most probable level of risk, not the real risk of the enterprises. In this study, it is aimed to develop a method that will present a more comprehensive evaluation compared to the existing methods by evaluating the probability and severity scores, all sub-parameters, and potential results, and a new scoring-based method is proposed in the literature.

Keywords: occupational health and safety, risk assessment, scoring based risk assessment method, underground mining, weighted risk scores

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Authors: Gupta Amit, Kumar Ramesh, P. C. Tewari

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Globalization is putting enormous pressure on the business organizations specially manufacturing one to rethink the supply chain in innovative manners. Inventory consumes major portion of total sale revenue. Effective and efficient inventory management plays a vital role for the successful functioning of any organization. Selection of inventory policy is one of the important purchasing activities. This paper focuses on selection and ranking of alternative inventory policies. A deterministic quantitative model-based on Distance Based Approach (DBA) method has been developed for evaluation and ranking of inventory policies. We have employed this concept first time for this type of the selection problem. Four inventory policies Economic Order Quantity (EOQ), Just in Time (JIT), Vendor Managed Inventory (VMI) and monthly policy are considered. Improper selection could affect a company’s competitiveness in terms of the productivity of its facilities and quality of its products. The ranking of inventory policies is a multi-criteria problem. There is a need to first identify the selection criteria and then processes the information with reference to relative importance of attributes for comparison. Criteria values for each inventory policy can be obtained either analytically or by using a simulation technique or they are linguistic subjective judgments defined by fuzzy sets, like, for example, the values of criteria. A methodology is developed and applied to rank the inventory policies.

Keywords: inventory policy, ranking, DBA, selection criteria

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Authors: Lenka Jesonkova, Frantisek Bozek

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Trihalogenmethanes (THMs) are disinfection byproducts with non-carcinogenic and genotoxic effects. The contamination of 6 sites close to the water treatment plant has been monitored in second largest city of the Czech Republic. Health risk assessment including both non-carcinogenic and genotoxic risk for long term exposition was realized using the critical concentrations. Concentrations of trihalogenmethanes met national standards in all samples. Risk assessment proved that health risks from trihalogenmethanes are acceptable on each site.

Keywords: drinking water, health risk assessment, trihalogenmethanes, water pollution

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Authors: Ahmad Mohsin, Syda Fatima, Falak Nawaz, Aman Ullah Khan

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Selection of an appropriate architectural style is vital to the success of target web service under development. The nature of architecture design and selection for service-oriented computing applications is quite different as compared to traditional software. Web Services have complex and rigorous architectural styles to choose. Due to this, selection for accurate architectural style for web services development has become a more complex decision to be made by architects. Architectural style selection is a multi-criteria decision and demands lots of experience in service oriented computing. Decision support systems are good solutions to simplify the selection process of a particular architectural style. Our research suggests a new approach using DSS for selection of architectural styles while developing a web service to cater FRs and NFRs. Our proposed DSS helps architects to select right web service architectural pattern according to the domain and non-functional requirements. In this paper, a rule base DSS has been developed using CLIPS (C Language Integrated Production System) to support decisions using multi-criteria requirements. This DSS takes architectural characteristics, domain requirements and software architect preferences for NFRs as input for different architectural styles in use today in service-oriented computing. Weighted sum model has been applied to prioritize quality attributes and domain requirements. Scores are calculated using multiple criterions to choose the final architecture style.

Keywords: software architecture, web-service, rule-based, DSS, multi-criteria requirements, quality attributes

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Authors: Zainab S. Mahmood, Aisha H. Hashim, Wan Haslina Hassan, Farhat Anwar

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The wide use of the internet-based applications bring many challenges to the researchers to guarantee the continuity of the connections needed by the mobile hosts and provide reliable Internet access for them. One of proposed solutions by Internet Engineering Task Force (IETF) is to connect the local, multi-hop, and infrastructure-less Mobile Ad hoc Network (MANET) with Internet structure. This connection is done through multi-interface devices known as Internet Gateways. Many issues are related to this connection like gateway discovery, hand off, address auto-configuration and selecting the optimum gateway when multiple gateways exist. Many studies were done proposing gateway selection schemes with a single selection criterion or weighted multiple criteria. In this research, a review of some of these schemes is done showing the differences, the features, the challenges and the drawbacks of each of them.

Keywords: Internet Gateway, MANET, mobility, selection criteria

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Authors: Rafia Akbar

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This paper assesses different Energy Efficiency Measures (EEMs) and their impact on energy consumption and carbon footprint of an educational building located in Islamabad. A base case was first developed in accordance with typical construction practices in Pakistan. Several EEMs were separately applied to the baseline design to quantify their impact on operational energy reduction of the building and the resultant carbon emissions. Results indicate that by applying these measures, there is a potential to reduce energy consumption up to 49% as compared to the base case. It was observed that energy efficient ceiling fans and lights, insulation of the walls and roof and an efficient air conditioning system for the building can provide significant energy savings. The results further indicate that the initial investment cost of these energy efficiency measures can be recovered within 6 to 7 years of building’s service life.

Keywords: CO2 savings, educational building, energy efficiency measures, payback period

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Authors: Sarita Pinmanee, Saipan Krapbia, Rataya Yanaphan

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Hemp (Cannabis sativa L.) is multi-purpose crop delivering fibers, shives, and seed. The fiber is used today for special paper, insulation material, and biocomposites. This research was to improve low delta-9 Tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) hemp variety for high fiber contents. Mass selection for increased fiber content in four low THC Thai cultivars (including RPF1, RPF2, RPF3, and RPF4) was carried out in highland areas in the northern Thailand. Research work was conducted for three consecutive growing seasons during 2012 to 2014 at Pangda Royal Agricultural Station, Samoeng District, Chiang Mai Province, Thailand. Results of selection indicated that after selecting for three successive generations, the average fiber content of four low THC Thai cultivars increased to 28-36 %. The resulted of selection was found that fiber content of RPF1, RPF2, RPF3 and RPF4 increased to 20.6, 19.1, 19.9 and 22.8%, respectively. In addition, THC contents of these four varieties were 0.07, 0.138, 0.08 and 0.072 % respectively. As well, mass selection method was considered as an effective and suitable method for improving this fiber content.

Keywords: Hemp, mass selection, fiber content, low THC content

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Authors: Saniye Çeşmecioğlu

Abstract:

The importance of project sustainability and success has become increasingly significant due to the proliferation of external environmental factors that have decreased project resistance in contemporary times. The primary approach to forestall the failure of projects is to ensure their long-term viability through the strategic selection of projects as creating judicious project selection framework within the organization. Decision-makers require precise decision contexts (models) that conform to the company's business objectives and sustainability expectations during the project selection process. The establishment of a rational model for project selection enables organizations to create a distinctive and objective framework for the selection process. Additionally, for the optimal implementation of this decision-making model, it is crucial to establish a Project Management Office (PMO) team and Project Steering Committee within the organizational structure to oversee the framework. These teams enable updating project selection criteria and weights in response to changing conditions, ensuring alignment with the company's business goals, and facilitating the selection of potentially viable projects. This paper presents a multi-criteria decision model for selecting project sustainability and project success criteria that ensures timely project completion and retention. The model was developed using MACBETH (Measuring Attractiveness by a Categorical Based Evaluation Technique) and was based on broadcaster companies’ expectations. The ultimate results of this study provide a model that endorses the process of selecting the appropriate project objectively by utilizing project selection and sustainability criteria along with their respective weights for organizations. Additionally, the study offers suggestions that may ascertain helpful in future endeavors.

Keywords: project portfolio management, project selection, multi-criteria decision making, project sustainability and success criteria, MACBETH

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Authors: Mikhail V. Khachaturyan, Inga A. Koryagina, Maria Nikishova

Abstract:

The study investigates the impact of the ongoing financial crisis, started in the 2^nd half of 2014, on marketing budgets spent by Fast-moving consumer goods companies. In these conditions, special importance is given to efficient possessory risk management systems. The main objective for establishing and developing possessory risk management systems for FMCG companies in a crisis is to analyze the data relating to the external environment and consumer behavior in a crisis. Another important objective for possessory risk management systems of FMCG companies is to develop measures and mechanisms to maintain and stimulate sales. In this regard, analysis of risks and threats which consumers define as the main reasons affecting their level of consumption become important. It is obvious that in crisis conditions the effective risk management systems responsible for development and implementation of strategies for consumer demand stimulation, as well as the identification, analysis, assessment and management of other types of risks of economic security will be the key to sustainability of a company. In terms of financial and economic crisis, the problem of forming and developing possessory risk management systems becomes critical not only in the context of management models of FMCG companies, but for all the companies operating in other sectors of the Russian economy. This study attempts to analyze the specifics of formation and development of company possessory risk management systems. In the modern economy, special importance among all the types of owner’s risks has the risk of reduction in consumer activity. This type of risk is common not only for the consumer goods trade. Study of consumer activity decline is especially important for Russia due to domestic market of consumer goods being still in the development stage, despite its significant growth. In this regard, it is especially important to form and develop possessory risk management systems for FMCG companies. The authors offer their own interpretation of the process of forming and developing possessory risk management systems within owner’s management models of FMCG companies as well as in Russian economy in general. Proposed methods and mechanisms of problem analysis of formation and development of possessory risk management systems in FMCG companies and the results received can be helpful for researchers interested in problems of consumer goods market development in Russia and overseas.

Keywords: FMCG companies, marketing budget, risk management, owner, Russian economy, organization, formation, development, system

Procedia PDF Downloads 376

Authors: Preeda Sansakorn, Min An

Abstract:

In order to be capable of dealing with uncertainties, subjectivities, including vagueness arising in building construction projects, the application of fuzzy reasoning technique based on fuzzy set theory is proposed. This study contributes significantly to the development of a fuzzy reasoning safety risk assessment model for building construction projects that could be employed to assess the risk magnitude of each hazardous event identified during construction, and a third parameter of probability of consequence is incorporated in the model. By using the proposed safety risk analysis methodology, more reliable and less ambiguities, which provide the safety risk management project team for decision-making purposes.

Keywords: safety risk assessment, building construction safety, fuzzy reasoning, construction risk assessment model, building construction projects

Procedia PDF Downloads 491