Search results for: setup period estimation

Authors: Adrian O'Hagan, Robert McLoughlin

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Considerable focus in the world of insurance risk quantification is placed on modeling loss values from lines of business (LOBs) that possess upper tail dependence. Copulas such as the Joe, Gumbel and Student-t copula may be used for this purpose. The copula structure imparts a desired level of tail dependence on the joint distribution of claims from the different LOBs. Alternatively, practitioners may possess historical or simulated data that already exhibit upper tail dependence, through the impact of catastrophe events such as hurricanes or earthquakes. In these circumstances, it is not desirable to induce additional upper tail dependence when modeling the joint distribution of the loss values from the individual LOBs. Instead, it is of interest to accurately assess the degree of tail dependence already present in the data. The empirical copula and its associated upper tail dependence coefficient are presented in this paper as robust, efficient means of achieving this goal.

Keywords: empirical copula, extreme events, insurance loss reserving, upper tail dependence coefficient

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Authors: Elena Tkachenko, Elena Rogova, Daria Koval

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The paper examines the ways of cash flows forecasting in the dynamic external environment. The so-called new reality in economy lowers the predictability of the companies’ performance indicators due to the lack of long-term steady trends in external conditions of development and fast changes in the markets. The traditional methods based on the trend analysis lead to a very high error of approximation. The macroeconomic situation for the last 10 years is defined by continuous consequences of financial crisis and arising of another one. In these conditions, the instruments of forecasting on the basis of fuzzy sets show good results. The fuzzy sets based models turn out to lower the error of approximation to acceptable level and to provide the companies with reliable cash flows estimation that helps to reach the financial stability. In the paper, the applicability of the model of cash flows forecasting based on fuzzy logic was analyzed.

Keywords: cash flow, industrial enterprise, forecasting, fuzzy sets

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Authors: Boukari Abdou Wakilou

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Benin is one of West Africa's major cotton-producing countries. Cotton is the country's main source of foreign currency and employment. But it is also one of the sources of soil degradation. The search for good agricultural practices is therefore, a constant preoccupation. The aim of this study is to measure the technical efficiency of cotton growers by comparing those who constantly grow cotton on the same land with those who practice crop rotation. The one-step estimation approach of the stochastic production frontier, including determinants of technical inefficiency, was applied to a stratified random sample of 261 cotton producers. Overall, the growers had a high average technical efficiency level of 90%. However, there was no significant difference in the level of technical efficiency between the two groups of growers studied. All the factors linked to compliance with the technical production itinerary had a positive influence on the growers' level of efficiency. It is, therefore, important to continue raising awareness of the importance of respecting the technical production itinerary and of integrated soil fertility management techniques.

Keywords: technical efficiency, soil fertility, cotton, crop rotation, benin

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Authors: Ahmed Mamdouh

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Introduction: The era of Thutmosis III represents a transitional period between the art of the Thutmoside art and the Amarna period, so we intend to declare that it serves as the cradle of Amarna art. The study will examine the Statues of king Thutmose III that was discovered in Luxor by an Egyptian mission. These Statues have been transferred to the Conservation Center of the Grand Egyptian Museum (GEM) to be conserved and made ready to bedisplayed at the new museum (the project of the century). We focus upon three Statues (GEM numbers 45863, 45864, 45865), chosen because they relate to different years of the king's reign. These Statues were all made of granite. The first one is a Kneeling statue representing the god Amun showing king Thutmose III offering to the goddess Hathor. The second is decorated with king Thutmose III with the red crown, between the goddess Hathor and the royal wife, Nefertari. The third shows the king offering NW vessels and bread to the god Seker. Each Statue is divided into registers containing a description and decorated with scenes of the king presenting offerings to gods. Methodology: The proposed study will focus on the development which happened sequentially according to differences that occur in each Statue. We will use comparative research to determine the workshops of these statues, whether one or several, and what are the distinguishing features of each one. We will examine what innovations the artisans added to royal art. The description and the texts will be translated with linguistic comments. This research focuses on text analyses and technology. Paleographic information found on these objects includes the names and titles of the king. Conclusion: This research focuses on text analyses and technology. The study aims to create a manual that may help in dating the artwork of Thutmosis III. This research will be beneficial and useful for heritage and ancient civilizations, particularly when we talk about opening museums like the Grand Egyptian museum, which will exhibit a collection of statues. Indeed this kind of study will open a new destination in order to know how to identify these collections and how to exhibit them commensurate with the nature of ancient Egyptian history and heritage.

Keywords: archaeological study, Giza, new kingdom, statues, royal art

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Authors: Arben Murtezani, Shefqet Mrasori, Vančo Spirov, Bukurije Rama, Oliver Dimitrovski, Visar Bunjaku

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Overview: Temporomandibular disorders (TMDs) are chronic musculoskeletal pain conditions. Clinical indicators of discomfort are related to the use of the joint stiffness during first motions after extended rest and restricted joint range of motion can cause substantial pain and disability. There is little evidence that physical therapy methods of management cause long-lasting reduction in signs and symptoms. Exercise programs premeditated to improve physical fitness have beneficial effects on chronic pain and disability of the musculoskeletal system. Objective: The aim of this study was to assess the effectiveness of physical therapy interventions in the management of temporomandibular disorders. Materials and Methods: A prospective comparative study with a 2-month follow-up period was conducted between April 2016 and June 2016 at the Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation Clinic in Prishtina. Forty six patients with TMDs, (more than three months duration of symptoms) were randomized into two groups: the TENS therapy group (n=24) and combination of active exercise and manual therapy group (n=22). The TENS therapy group patients were treated with twelve sessions of TENS. The treatment period of both groups was 3 weeks at an outpatient clinic. Following main outcome measures were evaluated: (1) pain at rest (2) pain at stress (3) impairment (4) mouth opening at base-line, before and after treatment and at 3 month follow-up. Results: Significant reduction in pain was observed in both treatment groups. In the TENS group 73% (16/22) achieved at least 80% improvement from baseline in TMJ pain at 2 months compared with 54% (13/24) in the exercise group (difference of 19%; 95% confidence interval 220 to 30%). Active and passive maximum mouth opening has been greater in the TENS group (p < 0.05). Conclusion: Exercise therapy in combination with TENS seems to be useful in the treatment of temporomandibular disorders.

Keywords: temporomandibular joint disorders, TENS, manual therapy, exercise

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Authors: R. Sabre, W. Horrigue, J. C. Simon

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This paper is interested in two difficulties encountered in practice when observing a continuous time process. The first is that we cannot observe a process over a time interval; we only take discrete observations. The second is the process frequently observed with a constant additive error. It is important to give an estimator of the spectral density of such a process taking into account the additive observation error and the choice of the discrete observation times. In this work, we propose an estimator based on the spectral smoothing of the periodogram by the polynomial Jackson kernel reducing the additive error. In order to solve the aliasing phenomenon, this estimator is constructed from observations taken at well-chosen times so as to reduce the estimator to the field where the spectral density is not zero. We show that the proposed estimator is asymptotically unbiased and consistent. Thus we obtain an estimate solving the two difficulties concerning the choice of the instants of observations of a continuous time process and the observations affected by a constant error.

Keywords: spectral density, stable processes, aliasing, periodogram

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Authors: Sahar Fahmy Mehanna

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Wild fisheries and aquaculture offer excellent opportunities to decrease hunger and improve nutrition, relieve poverty, create economic growth and guarantee healthier use of natural resources. Employment in fisheries and aquaculture has grown continuously quicker than in the agriculture sector, providing up to 55 million jobs worldwide. Fisheries and aquaculture supplied Egypt with 2.1 million tons of fish in 2021, mostly used as food for people. Fish production in Egypt has grown dramatically in the last three decades, where fish production increased from about 346 thousand tons in 1990 to up to 2.1 million tons in 2021. In contrast to natural resources, which increased by only 30% in the period from 1990 to 2021, aquaculture production increased by 2502% during the same period. The majority of wild fisheries production in Egypt arises from coastal areas, where pollution is one of the main challenges severely affected both the productivity and quality of fish stocks. Our marine resources are at the risk of irreversible loss to habitats, ecological functions, and biodiversity because of overfishing, pollution, destructive fishing methods, climatic changes, unsustainable coastal area development and the competing demands from different industrial uses and human activities. Illegal, Unreported and Unregulated (IUU) Fishing continues to be a big challenge to achieve sustainable fisheries. Furthermore, poor governance, management and practices are a further challenge. Reducing overfishing, stimulating responsible and sustainable fisheries management, applying aquaculture new and friendly practices and conserving the marine environment health are among the government’s best opportunities to provide highly nutritious food to the increasing population in Egypt. The present presentation will discuss the fishery regulations in the Egyptian marine fisheries that taken to maintain, protect and promote the different Egyptian marine environments and to what extent these regulations were effective.

Keywords: egypt, marine fisheries, fishery regulations, fisheries management, Marine ecosystem conservation

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Authors: Anderson S. Fonseca, Italo F. S. Da Silva, Robert D. A. Santos, Mayara G. Da Silva, Pedro H. C. Vieira, Antonio M. S. Sobrinho, Victor H. B. Lemos, Petterson S. Diniz, Anselmo C. Paiva, Eliana M. G. Monteiro

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In Brazil, the National Electric Energy Agency (ANEEL) establishes that electrical energy companies are responsible for measuring and billing their customers. Among these regulations, it’s defined that a company must bill your customers within 27-33 days. If a relocation or a change of period is required, the consumer must be notified in writing, in advance of a billing period. To make it easier to organize a workday’s measurements, these companies create a reading plan. These plans consist of grouping customers into reading groups, which are visited by an employee responsible for measuring consumption and billing. The creation process of a plan efficiently and optimally is a capacitated clustering problem with constraints related to homogeneity and compactness, that is, the employee’s working load and the geographical position of the consuming unit. This process is a work done manually by several experts who have experience in the geographic formation of the region, which takes a large number of days to complete the final planning, and because it’s human activity, there is no guarantee of finding the best optimization for planning. In this paper, the GBKMeans method presents a technique based on K-Means and genetic algorithms for creating a capacitated cluster that respects the constraints established in an efficient and balanced manner, that minimizes the cost of relocating consumer units and the time required for final planning creation. The results obtained by the presented method are compared with the current planning of a real city, showing an improvement of 54.71% in the standard deviation of working load and 11.97% in the compactness of the groups.

Keywords: capacitated clustering, k-means, genetic algorithm, districting problems

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Authors: Siphat Lim

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The result of the study revealed that the interaction between money, exchange rate, and price level was mainly derived from the policy-induced by the central bank. Furthermore, the variation of inflation was explained weakly by exchange rate and money supply. In the period of twelfth-month, the variation of inflation which caused by exchange rate and money supply were not more than 1.78 percent and 9.77 percent, respectively.

Keywords: money supply, exchange rate, price level, VAR model

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Authors: Ruqayya Naheed Khan, Romaisa Shamim, Awais Amjad Malik, Awais Naeem, Amina Iqbal Khan, Asad Parvaiz

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Objective: Patients undergoing axillary lymph node dissection (ALND) for metastatic lymph nodes in our hospital usually have drains placed in their axilla for a period of 6-10 days. We evaluated the post-op course of patients who underwent breast conservation surgery (BCS) along with ALND. Methods: A prospective cohort study was conducted at Shaukat Khanam Memorial Cancer Hospital from April 2017 to August 2017 including all lymph node positive breast cancer patients undergoing BCS with ALND. Patients were divided into two groups. Group A had no axillary drain while in Group B a drain was placed in axilla. Results: A total of 76 patients were included. 41 patients were included in group A and 35 patients in Group B. Median number of LNs dissected in group A was 17 and in group B was 15 (p value 0.443). Median operative time in group A was 84 min and in group B was 79 min (p value 0.223). Median hospital stay in both groups was 1 day (p value 0.78). At 2 weeks all patients in group A developed seroma as compared to none in group B (p value < 0.001). 3 of these patients in group A required aspiration of seroma due to pressure effects. Rest were managed conservatively. At 6 weeks only 50% patients had a seroma radiologically in Group A as compared to 33% in group B (p value 0.023). No intervention was required in any patients at week 6. QOL at 2 weeks was much better in Group A (7/41 patients had unsatisfactory response) as compared to group B (10/31 had unsatisfactory response). Results were statistically significant (p value 0.045). However, there wasn’t much difference in QOL at 6 weeks. Only 1 patient in group A had an unsatisfactory response. Average pain score at 2 weeks was similar in both groups (4.2 v/s 4.1 p value 0.73). Infection was seen in 1 patient in each group at 2 weeks (p value 0.668) and in only 1 patient in group A at 6 weeks (p value 0.067). Conclusion: We conclude from our study that there isn’t much difference in drain and no drain group in terms of wound infection and pain scores. No drain group is however associated with a better QOL in early post-op period.

Keywords: axillary drainage, axillary lymph node dissection, breast cancer, no drain in axilla

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Authors: Sameer Masood, Lucas Chartier

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Head injuries are a commonly encountered presentation in emergency departments (ED) and the Choosing Wisely Canada (CWC) campaign was released in June 2015 in an attempt to decrease imaging utilization for patients with minor head injuries. The impact of the CWC campaign on imaging utilization for head injuries has not been explored in the ED setting. In our study, we describe the characteristics of patients with head injuries presenting to a tertiary care academic ED and the impact of the CWC campaign on CT head utilization. This retrospective cohort study used linked databases from the province of Ontario, Canada to assess emergency department visits with a primary diagnosis of head injury made between June 1, 2014 and Aug 31, 2016 at the University Health Network in Toronto, Canada. We examined the number of visits during the study period, the proportion of patients that had a CT head performed before and after the release of the CWC campaign, as well as mode of arrival, and disposition. There were 4,322 qualifying visits at our site during the study period. The median presenting age was 44.12 years (IQR 27.83,67.45), the median GCS was 15 (IQR 15,15) and the majority of patients presenting had intermediate acuity (CTAS 3). Overall, 43.17% of patients arrived via ambulance, 49.24 % of patients received a CT head and 10.46% of patients were admitted. Compared to patients presenting before the CWC campaign release, there was no significant difference in the rate of CT heads after the CWC (50.41% vs 47.68%, P = 0.07). There were also no significant differences between the two groups in mode of arrival (ambulance vs ambulatory) (42.94% vs 43.48%, P = 0.72) or admission rates (9.85% vs 11.26%, P = 0.15). However, more patients belonged to the high acuity groups (CTAS 1 or 2) in the post CWC campaign release group (12.98% vs 8.11% P <0.001). Visits for head injuries make up a significant proportion of total ED visits and approximately half of these patients receive CT imaging in the ED. The CWC campaign did not seem to impact imaging utilization for head injuries in the 14 months following its launch. Further efforts, including local quality improvement initiatives, are likely needed to increase adherence to its recommendation and reduce imaging utilization for head injuries.

Keywords: choosing wisely, emergency department, head injury, quality improvement

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Authors: Yun-Xuan Tang, Pei-Yuan Liu, Kun-Mu Lu, Min-Tsung Tseng, Liang-Kuang Chen, Yuh-Feng Tsai, Ching-Wen Lee, Jay Wu

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Breast cancer is predominant of malignant tumors in females. The increase in the glandular density increases the risk of breast cancer. BI-RADS is a frequently used density indicator in mammography; however, it significantly overestimates the glandularity. Therefore, it is very important to accurately and quantitatively assess the glandularity by mammography. In this study, 20%, 30% and 50% glandularity phantoms were exposed using a mammography machine at 28, 30 and 31 kVp, and 30, 55, 80 and 105 mAs, respectively. The regions of interest (ROIs) were drawn to assess the gray level. The relationship between the glandularity and gray level under various compression thicknesses, kVp, and mAs was established by the multivariable linear regression. A phantom verification was performed with automatic exposure control (AEC). The regression equation was obtained with an R-square value of 0.928. The average gray levels of the verification phantom were 8708, 8660 and 8434 for 0.952, 0.963 and 0.985 g/cm3, respectively. The percent differences of glandularity to the regression equation were 3.24%, 2.75% and 13.7%. We concluded that the proposed method could be clinically applied in mammography to improve the glandularity estimation and further increase the importance of breast cancer screening.

Keywords: mammography, glandularity, gray value, BI-RADS

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Authors: Mohamed Hafid, Marcel Lacroix

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This study presents an inverse analysis for predicting the thermal conductivities and the heat flux of a high-temperature metallurgical reactor simultaneously. Once these thermal parameters are predicted, the time-varying thickness of the protective phase-change bank that covers the inside surface of the brick walls of a metallurgical reactor can be calculated. The enthalpy method is used to solve the melting/solidification process of the protective bank. The inverse model rests on the Levenberg-Marquardt Method (LMM) combined with the Broyden method (BM). A statistical analysis for the thermal parameter estimation is carried out. The effect of the position of the temperature sensors, total number of measurements and measurement noise on the accuracy of inverse predictions is investigated. Recommendations are made concerning the location of temperature sensors.

Keywords: inverse heat transfer, phase change, metallurgical reactor, Levenberg–Marquardt method, Broyden method, bank thickness

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Authors: Wisit Wichitkosoom

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Objective:The majority of the hisk-risk patients (ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), Acute cerebrovascular accident, Sepsis, Acute Traumatic patient ) are admitted to district or lacal hospitals (average 1-1.30 hr. from Udonthani general hospital, Northeastern province, Thailand) without proper facilities. The referral system was support to early care and early management at pre-hospital stage and prepare for the patient data to higher hospital. This study assessed the reduction in treatment delay achieved by pre-hospital diagnosis and referral directly to Udonthani General Hospital. Methods and results: Four district or local hospitals without proper facilities for treatment the very high-risk patient were serving the study region. Pre-hospital diagnoses were established with the simple technology such as LINE, SMS, telephone and Fax for concept of LEAN process and then the telemedicine, by ambulance monitoring (ECG, SpO2, BT, BP) in both real time and snapshot mode was administrated during the period of transfer for safety transfer concept (inter-hospital stage). The standard treatment for patients with STEMI, Intracranial injury and acute cerebrovascular accident were done. From 1 October 2012 to 30 September 2013, the 892 high-risk patients transported by ambulance and transferred to Udonthani general hospital were registered. Patients with STEMI diagnosed pre-hospitally and referred directly to the Udonthani general hospital with telemedicine closed monitor (n=248). The mortality rate decreased from 11.69% in 2011 to 6.92 in 2012. The 34 patients were arrested on the way and successful to CPR during transfer with the telemedicine consultation were 79.41%. Conclusion: The proper innovation could apply for health care system. The very high-risk patients must had the closed monitoring with two-way communication for the “safety transfer period”. It could modified to another high-risk group too.

Keywords: safety transfer, telemedicine, critical patients, medical and health sciences

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Authors: Nada Basset

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Problem Statement: The study examines the important role of leading change inside start-ups and highlights the challenges faced by an entrepreneur during the startup phase of the business. Research Methods/Procedures/Approaches: A qualitative research approach is taken, using the case study analysis method. A comparative study was made between two day care nurseries in Greater Cairo. Non-probability purposive sampling was used and a triangulation of semi-structured interviews, document analysis and participant-observation were applied simultaneously. The in-depth case study analysis took place over a longitudinal study of four calendar months. Results/Findings: Findings demonstrated that leading change in an entrepreneurial setup must be initiated by the entrepreneur, who must also be the owner of the change process. Another important finding showed that the culture of change, although created by the entrepreneur, needs the support and engagement of followers, who should be sharing the same value system and vision of the entrepreneur. Conclusions and Implications: An important implication suggests that during the first year of a start-up lifecycle, special emphasis must be made to the recruitment and selection of personnel, who should play a role into setting the new start-up culture and help it grow or shrink. Another drawn conclusion is that the success of the change must be measured in both quantitative and qualitative terms. Increasing revenues and customer attrition rates -as quantitative KPIs- must be aligned with other qualitative KPIs like customer satisfaction, employee satisfaction, and organizational commitment and business reputation. Originality of Paper: The paper addresses change management in an entrepreneurial concept, with an empirical application on an Egyptian start-up model providing a service to both adults and children. This privileges the research as the constructs measured merged together the level of satisfaction of employees, decision-makers (parents of children), and the users (children).

Keywords: leadership, change management, entrepreneurship, startup business

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Authors: José Leandro Melgar Néris, Claudinéia Brazil, Luciane Teresa Salvi, Isabel Cristina Damin

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The impact the climate change is not recent, the main variable in the hydrological cycle is the sequence and shortage of a drought, which has a significant impact on the socioeconomic, agricultural and environmental spheres. This study aims to characterize and quantify, based on precipitation climatic projections, the rainy and dry events in the region of the Uruguay River Basin, through the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The database is the image that is part of the Intercomparison of Model Models, Phase 5 (CMIP5), which provides condition prediction models, organized according to the Representative Routes of Concentration (CPR). Compared to the normal set of climates in the Uruguay River Watershed through precipitation projections, seasonal precipitation increases for all proposed scenarios, with a low climate trend. From the data of this research, the idea is that this article can be used to support research and the responsible bodies can use it as a subsidy for mitigation measures in other hydrographic basins.

Keywords: climate change, climatic model, dry events, precipitation projections

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Authors: Luis Amador Jimenez, Md. Shohel Amin

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Pavement performance models are based on projections of observed traffic loads, which makes uncertain to study funding strategies in the long run if history does not repeat. Neural networks can be used to estimate deterioration rates but the learning rate and momentum have not been properly investigated, in addition, economic evolvement could change traffic flows. This study addresses both issues through a case study for roads of Montreal that simulates traffic for a period of 50 years and deals with the measurement error of the pavement deterioration model. Travel demand models are applied to simulate annual average daily traffic (AADT) every 5 years. Accumulated equivalent single axle loads (ESALs) are calculated from the predicted AADT and locally observed truck distributions combined with truck factors. A back propagation Neural Network (BPN) method with a Generalized Delta Rule (GDR) learning algorithm is applied to estimate pavement deterioration models capable of overcoming measurement errors. Linear programming of lifecycle optimization is applied to identify M&R strategies that ensure good pavement condition while minimizing the budget. It was found that CAD 150 million is the minimum annual budget to good condition for arterial and local roads in Montreal. Montreal drivers prefer the use of public transportation for work and education purposes. Vehicle traffic is expected to double within 50 years, ESALS are expected to double the number of ESALs every 15 years. Roads in the island of Montreal need to undergo a stabilization period for about 25 years, a steady state seems to be reached after.

Keywords: pavement management system, traffic simulation, backpropagation neural network, performance modeling, measurement errors, linear programming, lifecycle optimization

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Authors: M. Kakavand, S. A. Naeini

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Dynamic properties of soil in small strains, especially for geotechnical engineers, are important for describing the behavior of soil and estimation of the earth structure deformations and structures, especially significant structures. This paper presents the effect of density on the shear modulus and damping ratio of saturated clean sand at various isotropic confining pressures. For this purpose, the specimens were compared with two different relative densities, loose Dr = 30% and dense Dr = 70%. Dynamic parameters were attained from a series of consolidated undrained fixed – free type torsional resonant column tests in small strain. Sand No. 161 is selected for this paper. The experiments show that by increasing sand density and confining pressure, the shear modulus increases and the damping ratio decreases.

Keywords: dynamic properties, shear modulus, damping ratio, clean sand, density, confining pressure, resonant column/torsional simple shear, TSS

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Authors: Eun Jae Ko, In Young Sung, Eui Soo Joeng

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Oropharyngeal dysphagia is prevalent in children with cerebral palsy (CP). There are many studies concerning this problem, however, studies examining long term outcomes of dysphagia using videofluoroscopic study (VFSS) are very rare. The Aim of this study is to investigate long-term outcomes of dysphagia in children with severe CP using initial VFSS. It was a retrospective study and chart review was done from January 2000 to December 2013. Thirty one patients under 18 years who have been diagnosed as CP in outpatient clinic of Rehabilitation Medicine, and who did VFSS were included. Long-term outcomes such as feeding method, height percentile, weight percentile, and body mass index (BMI) were tracked up for at least 3 years by medical records. Significant differences between initial and follow-up datas were investigated. The patients consisted of 18 males and 13 females, and the mean age was 31.0±18.0 months old. 64.5% of patients were doing oral diet, and 25.8% of patients were doing non-oral diet. When comparing VFSS findings among oral feeding patients, oral and non-oral feeding patients, and non-oral feeding patients at initial period, dysphagia severity, supraglottic penetration, and subglottic aspiration showed significant differences. Most of the patients who could feed orally at initial period were found to have the same feeding method at follow-up. But among eight patients who required non-oral feeding initially, three patients became possible to feed orally, and one patient was doing oral and non-oral feeding method together at follow-up. Follow up feeding method showed correlation with dysphagia severity by initial VFSS. Weight percentile was decreased in patients with GMFCS level V at follow up, which may represent poor nutritional status due to severe dysphagia compared to other patients. Initial VFSS severity would play a significant role in making an assumption about future diet in children with severe CP. Patients with GMFCS level V seem to have serious dysphagia at follow up and have nutritional deficiency over time, therefore, more careful nutritional support is needed in children with severe CP are suggested.

Keywords: cerebral palsy, child, dysphagia, videofluoroscopic study

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Authors: Shang-Hsin Ou, Yang-Chun Lin, Ke-Hao Cheng

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The year 2021 marked a historic drought in Taiwan, posing unprecedented challenges due to record-low rainfall and inadequate reservoir storage. The central region experienced water scarcity, leading to the implementation of "Groundwater Utilization at Construction Sites" for drought-resilient livelihood water supply. This study focuses on the establishment process of temporary groundwater treatment plants at construction sites in Taichung City, serving as a reference for future emergency response and the utilization of construction site groundwater. To identify suitable sites for groundwater reuse projects, site selection operations were carried out based on relevant water quality regulations and assessment principles. Subsequently, the planning and design of temporary water treatment plants were conducted, considering the water quality, quantity, and on-site conditions of groundwater wells associated with construction projects. The study consolidates the major water treatment facilities at each site and addresses encountered challenges during the establishment process. Practical insights gained from operating temporary groundwater treatment plants are presented, including improvements related to stable water quality, water quantity, equipment operation, and hydraulic control. In light of possible future droughts, this study provides an outlook and recommendations to expedite and improve the setup of groundwater treatment plants at construction sites. This includes considering on-site water abstraction, treatment, and distribution conditions. The study's results aim to offer practical guidelines for effectively establishing and managing such treatment plants, while offering experiences and recommendations for other regions facing similar emergencies, water shortages, and drought situations. These endeavors contribute to ensuring sustainable water supply for drought-resilient livelihoods and maintaining societal stability.

Keywords: drought resilience, groundwater treatment, construction site, water supply

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Authors: Lee Myung-Won, Kwak Keun-Chang

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This paper is concerned with knowledge representation and extraction of fuzzy if-then rules using Interval Type-2 Context-based Fuzzy C-Means clustering (IT2-CFCM) with the aid of fuzzy granulation. This proposed clustering algorithm is based on information granulation in the form of IT2 based Fuzzy C-Means (IT2-FCM) clustering and estimates the cluster centers by preserving the homogeneity between the clustered patterns from the IT2 contexts produced in the output space. Furthermore, we can obtain the automatic knowledge representation in the design of Radial Basis Function Networks (RBFN), Linguistic Model (LM), and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Networks (ANFN) from the numerical input-output data pairs. We shall focus on a design of ANFN in this paper. The experimental results on an estimation problem of energy performance reveal that the proposed method showed a good knowledge representation and performance in comparison with the previous works.

Keywords: IT2-FCM, IT2-CFCM, context-based fuzzy clustering, adaptive neuro-fuzzy network, knowledge representation

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Authors: Alaba M. Dare, Idris A. Ayinde, Adebayo M. Shittu, Sam O. Sam-Wobo

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Households' source of water is one of the core development indicators recently gaining pre-eminence in Nigeria. This study examined rural households' sources of water, Willingness to Pay (WTP) and factors influencing mean WTP. A cross-sectional survey which involved the use of questionnaire was used. A dichotomous choice (DC) with follow up was used as elicitation method. A multi-stage random sampling technique was used to select 437 rural households. Descriptive statistics and Tobit model were used for data estimation. The result revealed that about 70% fetched from unimproved water sources. Most (74.4%) respondents showed WTP for improved water sources. Age (p < 0.01), sex (p < 0.01), education (p < 0.01), occupation (p < 0.01), income (p < 0.01), price of water (P < 0.01), quantity of water (p < 0.01), household size (p < 0.01) and distance (p < 0.01) to existing water sources significantly influenced rural households' WTP for these services. The inference from this study showed that rural dweller sources of water is highly primitive and deplorable. Governments and stakeholders should prioritize the provision of rural water at an affordable price by rural dwellers.

Keywords: households, source of water, willingness to pay (WTP), tobit model

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Authors: Rozita Borhan, Hanif Che Lah, Wee Leong Son

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This paper is about method to produce a stable and accurate constant output pulse width regardless of the amplitude, period and pulse width variation of the input signal source. The pulse generated is usually being used in numerous applications as the reference input source to other circuits in the system. Therefore, it is crucial to produce a clean and constant pulse width to make sure the system is working accurately as expected.

Keywords: amplitude, Constant Pulse Width, frequency divider, pulse generator

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Authors: Melissa Mattos, Camila Lima, Ibraim Castro, Augusto Carioca, Saulo Magalhães, Paula Freitas, Keciany Oliveira

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Obesity is a chronic, multifactorial, relapsing disease that has increased dramatically over the years. Its control is considered a public health issue, and more and more treatments and interventions are being studied to reduce its prevalence. When interventions in lifestyle and the use of drugs do not generate lasting results, bariatric procedures emerge as a resource for obesity control. The main guidelines for the treatment of obesity emphasize the need for pre-procedure and post-procedure nutritional monitoring to avoid nutritional deficiencies that may occur. The individual who undergoes bariatric surgery needs to understand the changes that will be necessary for life in view of the intense anatomical and metabolic changes that result from surgical techniques. To assess the nutritional profile of patients who undergo bariatric surgery, we analyzed data from the medical records of all people who underwent sleeve-type bariatric surgery from January to June 2022 at a clinic in the City of Fortaleza. 38 patients were analyzed, 32 women and 6 men in the pre-surgical period, 6 and 12 months after surgery. The data showed an average weight loss of 24.45% at 6 months and 30.85% at 12 months, with a reduction of 21.32% and 30.41%, respectively, in the fat percentage, also indicating that 13.15% used drugs for weight loss during this period, leading to reflection on the isolated long-term efficacy of bariatric surgery, requiring multidisciplinary follow-up for a change in lifestyle. Only 12 individuals, corresponding to 31.57%, reached eutrophic BMI 12 months after surgery, 20 individuals remained overweight, corresponding to 52.63% of the sample, and 6 individuals (15.78%) remained in the BMI obese class I. As for body composition, there was a 52.39% reduction in fat mass and a 12.82% reduction in muscle mass, and 21% of individuals underwent cholecystectomy. Sleeve-type bariatric surgery promoted significant weight loss after 1 year of the procedure, with a reduction in body fat percentage and fat mass. Most patients were still overweight and had a significant reduction in muscle mass.

Keywords: bariatric surgery, sleeve gastrectomy, obesity, sleeve

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Authors: Pac Ordu

Abstract:

The paper was conceived on the premise that employment of tertiary education graduates has become an endemic problem in Nigeria. Recognizing the objective of current education as schooling for paid employment, the paper identified that the basic objective of present-day education should be schooling to become self-employed. While schooling to become a successful employee was identified as the focus for the older generation, schooling to become self-employed was defined as the focus for 21st-century teaching and learning. Hence, the paper condemned the inability of curriculum implementers to teach creative trends to enable students to acquire practical skills and small business operation-oriented competencies. A review of some disciplines was made to show the new trend of education that would empower Nigerian students with small business enterprise operation skills for self-employment on graduation. This was further made to draw the attention of institutions and curriculum designers to the need for our curriculum to be functional in line with demands of the innovative economic environment. The paper also noted that at periods of recession with its attendant effects, was the best period for students of entrepreneurship to dream and create their small business enterprises. It highlighted the role of Federal College of Education (Technical) Omoku, Rivers State, Nigeria and the national recognition it has received for developing an innovative, practical model of teaching entrepreneurship education in Nigeria Colleges of Education system. In order to equip students for economic survival on graduation, the introduction of innovative teaching can only be successful if lecturers shift their focus away from the conventional emphasis on theory to students’ energy quotients. While the paper obviously recommended that lecturers should be creative and teach outside the curriculum box, it further recommended that students should use this period of their studentship to dream, create and operate their own small business enterprises.

Keywords: 21st century students, curriculum, entrepreneurship, hands-on-training, innovative

Procedia PDF Downloads 98

Authors: Suparman

Abstract:

Piecewise polynomial regression model is very flexible model for modeling the data. If the piecewise polynomial regression model is matched against the data, its parameters are not generally known. This paper studies the parameter estimation problem of piecewise polynomial regression model. The method which is used to estimate the parameters of the piecewise polynomial regression model is Bayesian method. Unfortunately, the Bayes estimator cannot be found analytically. Reversible jump MCMC algorithm is proposed to solve this problem. Reversible jump MCMC algorithm generates the Markov chain that converges to the limit distribution of the posterior distribution of piecewise polynomial regression model parameter. The resulting Markov chain is used to calculate the Bayes estimator for the parameters of piecewise polynomial regression model.

Keywords: piecewise regression, bayesian, reversible jump MCMC, segmentation

Procedia PDF Downloads 354

Authors: Ana Nemsadze

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Contemporary era and society are called postindustrial era and postindustrial society and/or informational era and informational society. Today science intends to define concept of information and comprehend informations role and function in contemporary society. Organization of social environment and governance of public processes on the base of information and tools of communication are main characteristics of informational era. This was defined by technological changes which were accomplished in culture in the second half of twentieth century. Today Georgia as an independent state needs to create an informational discourse of the country and therefore it is very important to study political and social cases which accomplished in the country after collapse of the Soviet Union because they start to define the present and the future of the country. The purpose of this study is to analyze political cases of the latest history of Georgia in terms of culture and information, concretely to elucidate which political cases transformed social life of post Soviet Georgia most of all who accomplished these political cases which visual and verbal messages was each political case spread with. The research is conducted on the base of interview. Participants of the interview are people of various specializations. Their professional activity is related to reflections on culture and theme of visual communication. They are philosophers sociologists a journalist media researcher a politologist a painter. The participants of the interview enumerated political cases and characterized them separately. Every expert thinks that declaration of independence of Georgia is the most important fact among all facts which were implemented in Georgia after collapse of the Soviet Union. The research revealed important social and political cases. Most of the cases are related to independence and territorial integrity of the state. Presidents of Georgia Zviad Gamsakhurdia Eduard Shevardnadze Mikheil Saakashvili Catholocos-Patriarch of All Georgia, the Archbishop of Mtskheta Tbilisi and Metropolitan bishop of Bichvinta and Tskhum Abkhazia Ilia II, businessman Bidzina Ivanishvili assumed dominating roles in cases. Verbal narrative of the cases accomplished during Zviad Gamsakhurdia presidential term expresses national freedom and visual part of cases of the same period expresses ruin of social-political structure. Verbal narrative of the cases accomplished during Eduard Sevardnadze presidential term expresses Free State and stability and reestablishment of Georgias political function in international relations and visual part of cases of the same period describes the most important moment of his presidential term and Eduard Shevardnadzes face appears too. Verbal narrative of the cases accomplished during Mikheil Saakashvilis presidential term expresses social renewal and visual part of cases of the same period describes August war and Mikheil Saakashvilis face appears too. The results of the study also reveal other details of visual verbal narrative of political and social cases of post Soviet Georgia. This gives a chance to start further reflection.

Keywords: culture, narrative, post soviet, visual communication

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Authors: Etleva Hamzaraj, Eva Kica, Anila Paparisto, Pranvera Lazo

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Worldwide demographic developments of recent decades have been associated with negative environmental consequences. For this reason, there is a growing interest in assessing the state of natural ecosystems or assessing human impact on them. In this respect, this study aims to evaluate the change in water quality of the Mat River for a period of about ten years to highlight human impact. In one year, period of study, several biological and environmental parameters are determined to evaluate river water quality, and the data collected are compared with those of a similar study in 2007. Samples are collected every month in five stations evenly distributed along the river. Total coliform bacteria, the number of heterotrophic bacteria in water, and benthic macroinvertebrates are used as biological parameters of water quality. The most probable number index is used for evaluation of total coliform bacteria in water, while the number of heterotrophic bacteria is determined by counting colonies on plates with Plate Count Agar, cultivated with 0.1 ml sample after series dilutions. Benthic macroinvertebrates are analyzed by the number of individuals per taxa, the value of biotic index, EPT Richness Index value and tolerance value. Environmental parameters like pH, temperature, and electrical conductivity are measured onsite. As expected, the bacterial load was higher near urban areas, and the pollution increased with the course of the river. The maximum concentration of fecal coliforms was 1100 MPN/100 ml in summer and near the most urbanized area of the river. The data collected during this study show that after about ten years, there is a change in water quality of Mat River. According to a similar study carried out in 2007, the water of Mat River was of ‘excellent’ quality. But, according to this study, the water was classified as of ‘excellent’ quality only in one sampling site, near river source, while in all other stations was of ‘good’ quality. This result is based on biological and environmental parameters measured. The human impact on the quality of water of Mat River is more than evident.

Keywords: water quality, coliform bacteria, MPN index, benthic macroinvertebrates, biotic index

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Authors: Alex Fedoseyev

Abstract:

This study explores Generalized Hydrodynamic Equations (GHE) for the simulation of turbulent flows. The GHE was derived from the Generalized Boltzmann Equation (GBE) by Alexeev (1994). GBE was obtained by first principles from the chain of Bogolubov kinetic equations and considered particles of finite dimensions, Alexeev (1994). The GHE has new terms, temporal and spatial fluctuations compared to the Navier-Stokes equations (NSE). These new terms have a timescale multiplier τ, and the GHE becomes the NSE when τ is zero. The nondimensional τ is a product of the Reynolds number and the squared length scale ratio, τ=Re*(l/L)², where l is the apparent Kolmogorov length scale, and L is a hydrodynamic length scale. The turbulence phenomenon is not well understood and is not described by NSE. An additional one or two equations are required for the turbulence model, which may have to be tuned for specific problems. We show that, in the case of the GHE, no additional turbulence model is needed, and the turbulent velocity profile is obtained from the GHE. The 2D turbulent channel and circular pipe flows were investigated using a numerical solution of the GHE for several cases. The solutions are compared with the experimental data in the circular pipes and 2D channels by Nicuradse (1932, Prandtl Lab), Hussain and Reynolds (1975), Wei and Willmarth (1989), Van Doorne (2007), theory by Wosnik, Castillo and George (2000), and the relevant experiments on Superpipe setup at Princeton, data by Zagarola (1996) and Zagarola and Smits (1998), the Reynolds number is from Re=7200 to Re=960000. The numerical solution data compared well with the experimental data, as well as with the approximate analytical solution for turbulent flow in channel Fedoseyev (2023). The obtained results confirm that the Alexeev generalized hydrodynamic theory (GHE) is in good agreement with the experiments for turbulent flows. The proposed approach is limited to 2D and 3D axisymmetric channel geometries. Further work will extend this approach by including channels with square and rectangular cross-sections.

Keywords: comparison with experimental data. generalized hydrodynamic equations, numerical solution, turbulent boundary layer, turbulent flow in channel

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Authors: Janusz Getta, Zhaoxi Pan

Abstract:

Performance-based quality evaluation of database conceptual schemas is an important aspect of database design process. It is evident that different conceptual schemas provide different logical schemas and performance of user applications strongly depends on logical and physical database structures. This work presents the entire process of performance-based quality evaluation of conceptual schemas. First, we show format. Then, the paper proposes a new specification of object algebra for representation of conceptual level database applications. Transformation of conceptual schemas and expression of object algebra into implementation schema and implementation in a particular database system allows for precise estimation of the processing costs of database applications and as a consequence for precise evaluation of performance-based quality of conceptual schemas. Then we describe an experiment as a proof of concept for the evaluation procedure presented in the paper.

Keywords: conceptual schema, implementation schema, logical schema, object algebra, performance evaluation, query processing

Procedia PDF Downloads 278