Search results for: prediction modelling

Authors: Seyed Abbas Tabatabaei, Marjan Naderan Tahan, Arman Kadkhodai

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An efficient optimization approach, called feasible gate (FG), is developed to enhance the computation efficiency and solution quality of the previously developed highway alignment optimization (HAO) model. This approach seeks to realistically represent various user preferences and environmentally sensitive areas and consider them along with geometric design constraints in the optimization process. This is done by avoiding the generation of infeasible solutions that violate various constraints and thus focusing the search on the feasible solutions. The proposed method is simple, but improves significantly the model’s computation time and solution quality. On the other, highway alignment optimization through Feasible Gates, eventuates only economic model by considering minimum design constrains includes minimum reduce of circular curves, minimum length of vertical curves and road maximum gradient. This modelling can reduce passenger comfort and road safety. In most of highway optimization models, by adding penalty function for each constraint, final result handles to satisfy minimum constraint. In this paper, we want to propose a safety-function solution by introducing gift function.

Keywords: safety, highway geometry, optimization, alignment

Procedia PDF Downloads 398

Authors: Rifqi Alfadhillah Sentosa, Hasbi Fikru Syabi, Stephen

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West Java is a province in Indonesia which has a number of volcanoes. One of those volcanoes is Mt. Ciremai, located administratively at Kuningan and Majalengka District, and is known for its significant geothermal potential in Java Island. This research aims to assume geothermal prospects at Mt. Ciremai using Fault and Fracture Density (FFD) Method, which is correlated to the geochemistry of geothermal manifestations around the mountain. This FFD method is using SRTM data to draw lineaments, which are assumed associated with fractures and faults in the research area. These faults and fractures were assumed as the paths for reservoir fluids to reached surface as geothermal manifestations. The goal of this method is to analyze the density of those lineaments found in the research area. Based on this FFD Method, it is known that area with high density of lineaments located on Mt. Kromong at the northern side of Mt. Ciremai. This prospect area is proven by its higher geothermometer values compared to geothermometer values calculated at the south area of Mt. Ciremai.

Keywords: geothermal prospect, fault and fracture density, Mt. Ciremai, surface manifestation

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Authors: N. Pegahfar, P. Ghafarian

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In this research, the synoptic weather conditions during the heavy flood of 10-12 January 2020 in the Sistan-va-Balouchestan Province of Iran will be analyzed. To this aim, reanalysis data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS) analysis data, measured data from a surface station together with satellite images from the European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) have been used from 9 to 12 January 2020. Atmospheric parameters both at the lower troposphere and also at the upper part of that have been used, including absolute vorticity, wind velocity, temperature, geopotential height, relative humidity, and precipitation. Results indicated that both lower-level and upper-level currents were strong. In addition, the transport of a large amount of humidity from the Oman Sea and the Red Sea to the south and southeast of Iran (Sistan-va-Balouchestan Province) led to the vast and unexpected precipitation and then a heavy flood.

Keywords: Sistan-va-Balouchestn Province, heavy flood, synoptic, analysis data

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Authors: C. Fernandez-Plaza, I. Abad, E. Diaz, I. Diaz

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Births occurring before the 37th week of gestation are considered preterm births. A threat of preterm is defined as the beginning of regular uterine contractions, dilation and cervical effacement between 23 and 36 gestation weeks. To author's best knowledge, the factors that determine the beginning of the birth are not completely defined yet. In particular, the incidence of sleep habits on preterm births is weekly studied. The aim of this study is to develop a model to predict the factors affecting premature delivery on pregnancy, based on the above potential risk factors, including those derived from sleep habits and light exposure at night (introduced as 12 variables obtained by a telephone survey using two questionnaires previously used by other authors). Thus, three groups of variables were included in the study (maternal, fetal and sleep habits). The study was approved by Research Ethics Committee of the Principado of Asturias (Spain). An observational, retrospective and descriptive study was performed with 481 births between January 1, 2015 and May 10, 2016 in the University Central Hospital of Asturias (Spain). A statistical analysis using SPSS was carried out to compare qualitative and quantitative variables between preterm and term delivery. Chi-square test qualitative variable and t-test for quantitative variables were applied. Statistically significant differences (p < 0.05) between preterm vs. term births were found for primiparity, multi-parity, kind of conception, place of residence or premature rupture of membranes and interruption during nights. In addition to the statistical analysis, machine learning methods to look for a prediction model were tested. In particular, tree based models were applied as the trade-off between performance and interpretability is especially suitable for this study. C5.0, recursive partitioning, random forest and tree bag models were analysed using caret R-package. Cross validation with 10-folds and parameter tuning to optimize the methods were applied. In addition, different noise reduction methods were applied to the initial data using NoiseFiltersR package. The best performance was obtained by C5.0 method with Accuracy 0.91, Sensitivity 0.93, Specificity 0.89 and Precision 0.91. Some well known preterm birth factors were identified: Cervix Dilation, maternal BMI, Premature rupture of membranes or nuchal translucency analysis in the first trimester. The model also identifies other new factors related to sleep habits such as light through window, bedtime on working days, usage of electronic devices before sleeping from Mondays to Fridays or change of sleeping habits reflected in the number of hours, in the depth of sleep or in the lighting of the room. IF dilation < = 2.95 AND usage of electronic devices before sleeping from Mondays to Friday = YES and change of sleeping habits = YES, then preterm is one of the predicting rules obtained by C5.0. In this work a model for predicting preterm births is developed. It is based on machine learning together with noise reduction techniques. The method maximizing the performance is the one selected. This model shows the influence of variables related to sleep habits in preterm prediction.

Keywords: machine learning, noise reduction, preterm birth, sleep habit

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Authors: Anis A. Ansari, M. Kamil

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The development of 3D printing technology has allowed the manufacturing industry to create parts with a high degree of automation, increased design freedom, and improved mechanical performance. Fused deposition modelling (FDM) is a 3D printing technique in which successive layers of thermoplastic polymer are deposited and controlled to create a three-dimensional product. In this study, process parameters such as nozzle temperature and printing speed were chosen to investigate their effects on hardness properties. 3D printed specimens were fabricated by an FDM 3D printer from Polylactic acid (PLA) polymer. After analysis, it was observed that the hardness property is much influenced by print speed and nozzle temperature parameters. Maximum hardness was achieved at higher print speed which indicates that the Shore D hardness is directly proportional to the print speed. Moreover, at higher print speed, it has no significant dependence on the nozzle temperature. Hardness is also influenced by nozzle temperature, though to a lesser extent. The hardness slightly lowers when the nozzle temperature is raised from 190 to 210 oC, but due to improved bonding between each raster, a further rise in temperature increases the hardness property.

Keywords: 3D printing, fused deposition modeling (FDM), polylactic acid (PLA), print speed, nozzle temperature, hardness property

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Authors: R. K. Apalowo, D. Chronopoulos, V. Thierry

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There exist a wide range of failure modes in composite structures due to the increased usage of the structures especially in aerospace industry. Moreover, temperature dependent wave response of composite and layered structures have been continuously studied, though still limited, in the last decade mainly due to the broad operating temperature range of aerospace structures. A wave finite element (WFE) and finite element (FE) based computational method is presented by which the temperature dependent wave dispersion characteristics and interaction phenomenon in composite structures can be predicted. Initially, the temperature dependent mechanical properties of the panel in the range of -100 ◦C to 150 ◦C are measured experimentally using the Thermal Mechanical Analysis (TMA). Temperature dependent wave dispersion characteristics of each waveguide of the structural system, which is discretized as a system of a number of waveguides coupled by a coupling element, is calculated using the WFE approach. The wave scattering properties, as a function of temperature, is determined by coupling the WFE wave characteristics models of the waveguides with the full FE modelling of the coupling element on which defect is included. Numerical case studies are exhibited for two waveguides coupled through a coupling element.

Keywords: finite element, temperature dependency, wave dispersion characteristics, wave finite element, wave scattering properties

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Authors: Mohammed Hasan Salahat, Stave Wade

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This paper presents an application of a “Systematic Soft Domain Driven Design Framework” as a soft systems approach to domain-driven design of information systems development. The framework combining techniques from Soft Systems Methodology (SSM), the Unified Modeling Language (UML), and an implementation pattern knows as ‘Naked Objects’. This framework have been used in action research projects that have involved the investigation and modeling of business processes using object-oriented domain models and the implementation of software systems based on those domain models. Within this framework, Soft Systems Methodology (SSM) is used as a guiding methodology to explore the problem situation and to develop the domain model using UML for the given business domain. The framework is proposed and evaluated in our previous works, and a real case study ‘Information Retrieval System for Academic Research’ is used, in this paper, to show further practice and evaluation of the framework in different business domain. We argue that there are advantages from combining and using techniques from different methodologies in this way for business domain modeling. The framework is overviewed and justified as multi-methodology using Mingers Multi-Methodology ideas.

Keywords: SSM, UML, domain-driven design, soft domain-driven design, naked objects, soft language, information retrieval, multimethodology

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Authors: Zaheer Ahmed Almani, Agha Faisal Habib Pathan, Aneel Kumar Hindu

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In this study, the effects of ground reinforcement with stiff soil-cement columns on liquefiable ground and on the shallow foundation of structure were investigated. The modelling and analysis of shallow foundation of the structure founded on the composite reinforced ground were carried out with finite difference FLAC commercial software. The results showed that stiff columns were not effective to the redistribute the shear stresses in the composite ground, thus, were not effective to reduce shear stress and shear strain on the soil between the columns. The excessive pore pressure increase which is dependent on volumetric strain (contractive) tendency of loose sand upon shearing, was not reduced to a significant level that liquefaction potential could be remediated. Thus, mechanism of performance with reduction of pore pressure and consequent liquefaction was not predicted in numerical analysis. Nonetheless, the columns were effective to resist the load of structure in compression and reduced the liquefaction-induced large settlements of structure to tolerable limits when provided adjacent and beneath the pad of shallow foundation.

Keywords: earthquake, liquefaction, mechanism, soil-cement columns

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Authors: Punit Kumar, Niraj Kumar

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The traction behavior of lubricants with the linear pressure-viscosity response in EHL line contacts is investigated numerically for smooth as well as rough surfaces. The analysis involves the simultaneous solution of Reynolds, elasticity and energy equations along with the computation of lubricant properties and surface temperatures. The temperature modified Doolittle-Tait equations are used to calculate viscosity and density as functions of fluid pressure and temperature, while Carreau model is used to describe the lubricant rheology. The surface roughness is assumed to be sinusoidal and it is present on the nearly stationary surface in near-pure sliding EHL conjunction. The linear P-V oil is found to yield much lower traction coefficients and slightly thicker EHL films as compared to the synthetic oil for a given set of dimensionless speed and load parameters. Besides, the increase in traction coefficient attributed to surface roughness is much lower for the former case. The present analysis emphasizes the importance of employing realistic pressure-viscosity response for accurate prediction of EHL traction.

Keywords: EHL, linear pressure-viscosity, surface roughness, traction, water/glycol

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Authors: Paduri Veerabhadram, Antoinette Lombard

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In this paper a framework for hypothesizing about mobile learning to complement theories of formal and informal learning is presented. As such, activity theory will form the main theoretical lens through which the elements involved in formal and informal learning for mobile learning will be explored, specifically related to context-aware mobile learning application. The author believes that the complexity of the relationships involved can best be analysed using activity theory. Activity theory, as a social, cultural and activity theory can be used as a mobile learning framework in an academic environment, but to develop an optimal artifact, through investigation of inherent system's contradictions. As such, it serves as a powerful modelling tool to explore and understand the design of a mobile learning environment in the study’s environment. The Academic Tool Kit Framework (ATKF) as also employed for designing of a constructivism learning environment, effective in assisting universities to facilitate lecturers to effectively implement learning through utilizing mobile devices. Results indicate a positive perspective of students in the use of mobile devices for formal and informal learning, based on the context-aware learning environment developed through the use of activity theory and ATKF.

Keywords: collaborative learning, cooperative learning, context-aware learning environment, mobile learning, pedagogy

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Authors: Mahfuzur Rahman

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Back-contact solar cells improve optical properties by moving all electrically conducting parts to the back of the cell. The cell's structure allows silicon solar cells to surpass the 25% efficiency barrier and interdigitated solar cells are now the most efficient. In this work, the fabrication of a light, efficient and temperature resistant interdigitated back contact (IBC) solar cell is investigated. This form of solar cell differs from a conventional solar cell in that the electrodes are located at the back of the cell, eliminating the need for grids on the top, allowing the full surface area of the cell to receive sunlight, resulting in increased efficiency. In this project, we will use SILVACO TCAD, an optoelectronic device simulator, to construct a very thin solar cell with dimensions of 100x250um in 2D Luminous. The influence of sunlight intensity and atmospheric temperature on solar cell output power is highly essential and it has been explored in this work. The cell's optimum performance with 150um bulk thickness provides 28.81% efficiency with an 87.68% fill factor rate making it very thin, flexible and resilient, providing diverse operational capabilities.

Keywords: interdigitated, shading, recombination loss, incident-plane, drift-diffusion, luminous, SILVACO

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Authors: Erez Kita, Gil Luria

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This study examines gender as a boundary condition for the relationship between the psychological variable of mindfulness and the social variable of income with regards to the use of smartphones by young drivers. The use of smartphones while driving increases the likelihood of a car accident, endangering young drivers and other road users. The study sample included 186 young drivers who were legally permitted to drive without supervision. The subjects were first asked to complete questionnaires on mindfulness and income. Next, their smartphone use while driving was monitored over a one-month period. This study is unique as it used an objective smartphone monitoring application (rather than self-reporting) to count the number of times the young participants actually touched their smartphones while driving. The findings show that gender moderates the effects of social and personal factors (i.e., income and mindfulness) on the use of smartphones while driving. The pattern of moderation was similar for both social and personal factors. For men, mindfulness and income are negatively associated with the use of smartphones while driving. These factors are not related to the use of smartphones by women drivers. Mindfulness and income can be used to identify male populations that are at risk of using smartphones while driving. Interventions that improve mindfulness can be used to reduce the use of smartphones by male drivers.

Keywords: mindfulness, using smartphones while driving, income, gender, young drivers

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Authors: Andrew Laming, John Hattie, Mark Wilson

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Nine Queensland Independent high schools provided deidentified student-matched ATAR and NAPLAN data for all 1217 ATAR graduates since 2020 who also sat NAPLAN at the school. Graduating cohorts from the nine schools contained a mean 100 ATAR graduates with previous NAPLAN data from their school. Excluded were vocational students (mean=27) and any ATAR graduates without NAPLAN data (mean=20). Based on Index of Community Socio-Educational Access (ICSEA) prediction, all schools had larger that predicted proportions of their students graduating with ATARs. There were an additional 173 students not releasing their ATARs to their school (14%), requiring this data to be inferred by schools. Gain was established by first converting each student’s strongest NAPLAN domain to a statewide percentile, then subtracting this result from final ATAR. The resulting ‘percentile shift’ was corrected for plausible ATAR participation at each NAPLAN level. Strongest NAPLAN domain had the highest correlation with ATAR (R2=0.58). RESULTS School mean NAPLAN scores fitted ICSEA closely (R2=0.97). Schools achieved a mean cohort gain of two ATAR rankings, but only 66% of students gained. This ranged from 46% of top-NAPLAN decile students gaining, rising to 75% achieving gains outside the top decile. The 54% of top-decile students whose ATAR fell short of prediction lost a mean 4.0 percentiles (or 6.2 percentiles prior to correction for regression to the mean). 71% of students in smaller schools gained, compared to 63% in larger schools. NAPLAN variability in each of the 13 ICSEA1100 cohorts was 17%, with both intra-school and inter-school variation of these values extremely low (0.3% to 1.8%). Mean ATAR change between years in each school was just 1.1 ATAR ranks. This suggests consecutive school cohorts and ICSEA-similar schools share very similar distributions and outcomes over time. Quantile analysis of the NAPLAN/ATAR revealed heteroscedasticity, but splines offered little additional benefit over simple linear regression. The NAPLAN/ATAR R2 was 0.33. DISCUSSION Standardised data like NAPLAN and ATAR offer educators a simple no-cost progression metric to analyse performance in conjunction with their internal test results. Change is expressed in percentiles, or ATAR shift per student, which is layperson intuitive. Findings may also reduce ATAR/vocational stream mismatch, reveal proportions of cohorts meeting or falling short of expectation and demonstrate by how much. Finally, ‘crashed’ ATARs well below expectation are revealed, which schools can reasonably work to minimise. The percentile shift method is neither value-add nor a growth percentile. In the absence of exit NAPLAN testing, this metric is unable to discriminate academic gain from legitimate ATAR-maximizing strategies. But by controlling for ICSEA, ATAR proportion variation and student mobility, it uncovers progression to ATAR metrics which are not currently publicly available. However achieved, ATAR maximisation is a sought-after private good. So long as standardised nationwide data is available, this analysis offers useful analytics for educators and reasonable predictivity when counselling subsequent cohorts about their ATAR prospects.  

Keywords: NAPLAN, ATAR, analytics, measurement, gain, performance, data, percentile, value-added, high school, numeracy, reading comprehension, variability, regression to the mean

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Authors: Abbas Shafiee, Mohammad Taghi Ahmadian, Maryam Hoviattalab

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The biomechanical behavior of brain tissue is needed for predicting the traumatic brain injury (TBI). Each year over 1.5 million people sustain a TBI in the USA. The appropriate coefficients for injury prediction can be evaluated using experimental data. In this study, an experimental setup on brain soft tissue was developed to perform unconfined compression tests at quasistatic strain rates ∈0.0004 s-1 and 0.008 s-1 and 0.4 stress relaxation test under unconfined uniaxial compression with ∈ 0.67 s-1 ramp rate. The fitted visco-hyperelastic parameters were utilized by using obtained stress-strain curves. The experimental data was validated using finite element analysis (FEA) and previous findings. Also, influence of friction coefficient on unconfined compression and relaxation test and effect of ramp rate in relaxation test is investigated. Results of the findings are implemented on the analysis of a human brain under high acceleration due to impact.

Keywords: brain soft tissue, visco-hyperelastic, finite element analysis (FEA), friction, quasistatic strain rate

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Authors: Hongyan Chen, Megan Jobson, Andrew J. Masters, Maria Gonzalez-Miquel, Simon Halstead, Mayri Diaz de Rienzo

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Ionic liquids offer excellent advantages over conventional solvents for industrial extraction of metals from aqueous solutions, where such extraction processes bring opportunities for recovery, reuse, and recycling of valuable resources and more sustainable production pathways. Recent research on the use of ionic liquids for extraction confirms their high selectivity and low volatility, but there is relatively little focus on how their properties can be best exploited in practice. This work addresses gaps in research on process modelling and simulation, to support development, design, and optimisation of these processes, focusing on the separation of the highly similar transition metals, cobalt, and nickel. The study exploits published experimental results, as well as new experimental results, relating to the separation of Co and Ni using trihexyl (tetradecyl) phosphonium chloride. This extraction agent is attractive because it is cheaper, more stable and less toxic than fluorinated hydrophobic ionic liquids. This process modelling work concerns selection and/or development of suitable models for the physical properties, distribution coefficients, for mass transfer phenomena, of the extractor unit and of the multi-stage extraction flowsheet. The distribution coefficient model for cobalt and HCl represents an anion exchange mechanism, supported by the literature and COSMO-RS calculations. Parameters of the distribution coefficient models are estimated by fitting the model to published experimental extraction equilibrium results. The mass transfer model applies Newman’s hard sphere model. Diffusion coefficients in the aqueous phase are obtained from the literature, while diffusion coefficients in the ionic liquid phase are fitted to dynamic experimental results. The mass transfer area is calculated from the surface to mean diameter of liquid droplets of the dispersed phase, estimated from the Weber number inside the extractor. New experiments measure the interfacial tension between the aqueous and ionic phases. The empirical models for predicting the density and viscosity of solutions under different metal loadings are also fitted to new experimental data. The extractor is modelled as a continuous stirred tank reactor with mass transfer between the two phases and perfect phase separation of the outlet flows. A multistage separation flowsheet simulation is set up to replicate a published experiment and compare model predictions with the experimental results. This simulation model is implemented in gPROMS software for dynamic process simulation. The results of single stage and multi-stage flowsheet simulations are shown to be in good agreement with the published experimental results. The estimated diffusion coefficient of cobalt in the ionic liquid phase is in reasonable agreement with published data for the diffusion coefficients of various metals in this ionic liquid. A sensitivity study with this simulation model demonstrates the usefulness of the models for process design. The simulation approach has potential to be extended to account for other metals, acids, and solvents for process development, design, and optimisation of extraction processes applying ionic liquids for metals separations, although a lack of experimental data is currently limiting the accuracy of models within the whole framework. Future work will focus on process development more generally and on extractive separation of rare earths using ionic liquids.

Keywords: distribution coefficient, mass transfer, COSMO-RS, flowsheet simulation, phosphonium

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Authors: Ying Su, Morgan C. Wang

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Long-term time series forecasting is an important research area for automated machine learning (AutoML). Currently, forecasting based on either machine learning or statistical learning is usually built by experts, and it requires significant manual effort, from model construction, feature engineering, and hyper-parameter tuning to the construction of the time series model. Automation is not possible since there are too many human interventions. To overcome these limitations, this article proposed to use recurrent neural networks (RNN) through the memory state of RNN to perform long-term time series prediction. We have shown that this proposed approach is better than the traditional Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). In addition, we also found it is better than other network systems, including Fully Connected Neural Networks (FNN), Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), and Nonpooling Convolutional Neural Networks (NPCNN).

Keywords: automated machines learning, autoregressive integrated moving average, neural networks, time series analysis

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Authors: Said Yousif Khairi

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Being a developing economy, imports of capital, raw materials and manufactories goods are vital for sustainable economic growth. In 2006, Libya imported LD 8 billion (US$ 6.25 billion) which composed of mainly machinery and transport equipment (49.3%), raw material (18%), and food products and live animals (13%). This represented about 10% of GDP. Thus, it is pertinent to investigate factors affecting the amount of Libyan imports. An econometric model representing the aggregate import demand for Libya was developed and estimated using the bounds test procedure, which based on an unrestricted error correction model (UECM). The data employed for the estimation was from 1970–2010. The results of the bounds test revealed that the volume of imports and its determinants namely real income, consumer price index and exchange rate are co-integrated. The findings indicate that the demand for imports is inelastic with respect to income, index price level and The exchange rate variable in the short run is statistically significant. In the long run, the income elasticity is elastic while the price elasticity and the exchange rate remains inelastic. This indicates that imports are important elements for Libyan economic growth in the long run.

Keywords: import demand, UECM, bounds test, Libya

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Authors: Yogesh Kumar Singh, T. S. Murugesh Prabhu, Upasana Dutta, Girishchandra Yendargaye, Rahul Yadav, Rohini Gopinath Kale, Binay Kumar, Manoj Khare

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The Indian subcontinent is severely affected by floods that cause intense irreversible devastation to crops and livelihoods. With increased incidences of floods and their related catastrophes, an Early Warning System for Flood Prediction and an efficient Flood Management System for the river basins of India is a must. Accurately modeled hydrological conditions and a web-based early warning system may significantly reduce economic losses incurred due to floods and enable end users to issue advisories with better lead time. This study describes the design and development of an EWS-FP using advanced computational tools/methods, viz. High-Performance Computing (HPC), Remote Sensing, GIS technologies, and open-source tools for the Mahanadi River Basin of India. The flood prediction is based on a robust 2D hydrodynamic model, which solves shallow water equations using the finite volume method. Considering the complexity of the hydrological modeling and the size of the basins in India, it is always a tug of war between better forecast lead time and optimal resolution at which the simulations are to be run. High-performance computing technology provides a good computational means to overcome this issue for the construction of national-level or basin-level flash flood warning systems having a high resolution at local-level warning analysis with a better lead time. High-performance computers with capacities at the order of teraflops and petaflops prove useful while running simulations on such big areas at optimum resolutions. In this study, a free and open-source, HPC-based 2-D hydrodynamic model, with the capability to simulate rainfall run-off, river routing, and tidal forcing, is used. The model was tested for a part of the Mahanadi River Basin (Mahanadi Delta) with actual and predicted discharge, rainfall, and tide data. The simulation time was reduced from 8 hrs to 3 hrs by increasing CPU nodes from 45 to 135, which shows good scalability and performance enhancement. The simulated flood inundation spread and stage were compared with SAR data and CWC Observed Gauge data, respectively. The system shows good accuracy and better lead time suitable for flood forecasting in near-real-time. To disseminate warning to the end user, a network-enabled solution is developed using open-source software. The system has query-based flood damage assessment modules with outputs in the form of spatial maps and statistical databases. System effectively facilitates the management of post-disaster activities caused due to floods, like displaying spatial maps of the area affected, inundated roads, etc., and maintains a steady flow of information at all levels with different access rights depending upon the criticality of the information. It is designed to facilitate users in managing information related to flooding during critical flood seasons and analyzing the extent of the damage.

Keywords: flood, modeling, HPC, FOSS

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Authors: Suman Paik, P. V. Durgaprasad, Bijan K. Dutta

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A study combining experimental and numerical investigation on the deformation behaviour of single crystals of copper is presented in this paper. Cylindrical samples were cut in specific orientations from high purity copper single crystal and subjected to uniaxial compression loading at quasi-static strain rate. The stress-strain curves along two different crystallographic orientations were then extracted. In order to study and compare the deformation responses, a single crystal plasticity model incorporating non-Schmid effects was developed assuming cross-slip plays an important role in orientation of the material. By making use of crystal plasticity finite element method, the model was applied to investigate the orientation dependence of the stress-strain behaviour of two crystallographic orientations. Finally, details of slip activities of deformed crystals were investigated by linking the orientation of slip lines with the theoretical traces of possible crystallographic planes. The experimentally determined active slip modes were matched with those determined by simulations.

Keywords: crystal plasticity, modelling, non-Schmid effects, finite elements, finite strain

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Authors: Ramakrishna Rao Mamidi

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It is essential for Surface Mounted Permanent Magnet (SMPM) generators to determine the performance prediction and analyze the magnet’s air gap flux density wave shape. The flux density wave shape is neither a pure sine wave or square wave nor a combination. This is due to the variation of air gap reluctance between the stator and permanent magnets. The stator slot openings and the number of slots make the wave shape highly complicated. To reduce the complexity of analysis, approximations are made to the wave shape using Fourier analysis. In contrast to the traditional integration method, the Fourier coefficients, an and bn, are obtained by direct search method optimization. The wave shape with optimized coefficients gives a wave shape close to the desired wave shape. Harmonics amplitudes are worked out and compared with initial values. It can be concluded that the direct search method can be used for estimating Fourier coefficients for irregular wave shapes.

Keywords: direct search, flux plot, fourier analysis, permanent magnets

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Authors: Yuanhao Gao, Pin Lin, Kees Weijer

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In this paper, we will determine the external body force distribution with analysis of stokes fluid motion using mathematical modelling and numerical approaching. The body force distribution is regarded as the unknown variable and could be determined by the idea of optimal control theory. The Stokes flow motion and its velocity are generated by given forces in a unit square domain. A regularized objective functional is built to match the numerical result of flow velocity with the generated velocity data. So that the force distribution could be determined by minimizing the value of objective functional, which is also the difference between the numerical and experimental velocity. Then after utilizing the Lagrange multiplier method, some partial differential equations are formulated consisting the optimal control system to solve. Finite element method and conjugate gradient method are used to discretize equations and deduce the iterative expression of target body force to compute the velocity numerically and body force distribution. Programming environment FreeFEM++ supports the implementation of this model.

Keywords: optimal control model, Stokes equation, finite element method, conjugate gradient method

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Authors: Long Chen

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With the proliferation of E-Learning, collaborative learning becomes more and more popular in various teaching and learning occasions. Studies over the years have proved that actively participating in classroom discussion can enhance student's learning experience, consolidating their knowledge and understanding of the class content. Collaborative learning can also allow students to share their resources and knowledge by exchanging, absorbing, and observing one another's opinions and ideas. Community Question Answering (CQA) services are particularly suitable paradigms for collaborative learning, since it is essentially an online collaborative learning platform where one can get information from multiple sources for he/her to choose from. However, current CQA services have only achieved limited success in collaborative learning due to the uncertainty of answers' quality. In this paper, we predict the quality of answers in a CQA service, i.e. Yahoo! Answers, for the use of online education and distance learning, which would enable a student to find relevant answers and potential answerers more effectively and efficiently, and thus greatly increase students' user experience in CQA services. Our experiment reveals that the quality of answers is influenced by a series of factors such as asking time, relations between users, and his/her experience in the past. We also show that by modelling user's profile with our proposed personalized features, student's satisfaction towards the provided answers could be accurately estimated.

Keywords: Community Question Answering, Collaborative Learning, Log File, Co-Training

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Authors: Juan Bojórquez, Henry E. Reyes, Edén Bojórquez, Alfredo Reyes-Salazar

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This paper addressed the use of Artificial Intelligence to obtain the structural reliability of reinforced concrete buildings. For this purpose, artificial neuronal networks (ANN) are developed to predict seismic demand hazard curves. In order to have enough input-output data to train the ANN, a set of reinforced concrete buildings (low, mid, and high rise) are designed, then a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis is made to obtain the seismic demand hazard curves. The results are then used as input-output data to train the ANN in a feedforward backpropagation model. The predicted values of the seismic demand hazard curves found by the ANN are then compared. Finally, it is concluded that the computer time analysis is significantly lower and the predictions obtained from the ANN were accurate in comparison to the values obtained from the conventional methods.

Keywords: structural reliability, seismic design, machine learning, artificial neural network, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, seismic demand hazard curves

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Authors: H. Vahdani

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By the adsorption of polar compounds and/or the deposition of organic material, the wettability of originally water-wet reservoir rock can be altered. The degree of alteration is determined by the interaction of the oil constituents, the mineral surface, and the brine chemistry. Recently improving oil recovery by tuning wettability alteration is believed as a new recovery method. Various researchers have demonstrated that low salt water injection has a significant impact on oil recovery. It has been shown, for instance, that additional oil can be produced from reservoir rock by managing the injection water. Large wettability sensitivity has been observed, indicating that the oil/water capillary pressure profiles play a major role during low saline water injection simulation. Although the exact physics on how this alteration occurs is still a research topic; however, it has been reported that some of its effect can be captured by a relative permeability shift from an oil-wet system to a water-wet system. Modeling of low salt water injection mainly is based on the theory of wettability alteration and is hence strongly dependent on the wettability of the reservoir. In this article, combination of different wettabilities has been simulated and it is observed that the highest recoveries were from the cases were the reservoir initially was water-wet, and the lowest recoveries was from the cases were the reservoir initially was considered oil-wet. However for the cases where the reservoir initially was oil-wet, the effect of low-salinity waterflooding was the largest.

Keywords: low salt water injection, wettability alteration, modelling, relative permeability

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Authors: Ravinder Singh, Ankita Gurao, Saroj Bandhan, Sudhir Kumar Kashyap

Abstract:

The Bos taurus Beta defensin 3 is a defensin peptide secreted by neutrophils and epithelial that exhibits anti-microbial activity. It is one of the crucial components forming an innate defense against intra mammary infections in livestock. The beta defensin 3 by virtue of its anti-microbial activity inhibits major mastitis pathogens including Staphylococcus aureus and Pseudomonas aeruginosa etc, which are also responsible for biofilm formation leading to antibiotic resistance phenomenon. Therefore, the defensin may prove as a non-conventional option to treat mastitis. In this study, computational analysis has been performed including sequence comparison among species and homology modeling of Bos taurus beta defensin 3 protein. The assessments of protein structure were done using the protein structure and model assessment tools integrated in Swiss Model server, which employs various local and global quality evaluation parameters. Further, molecular docking was also carried out between the defensin peptide and the components of biofilm to gain insight into various interactions and structural differences crucial for functionality of this protein.

Keywords: beta defensin 3, bos taurus, docking, homology modeling

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Authors: Les Paul Valdez, Rowena Manzarate, Joseph Carl Lunizo, Mary Thereze Mabaquiao, Mary Deo Luigi Mabunay

Abstract:

Background: Across the literature, varying definitions of successful aging can be found. As a result, several determinants have been associated with successful aging. However, there is a paucity of literature exploring the relationship between successful aging and factors such as spiritual experience, gerotranscendence, and social engagement. Objective: Thus, this study purports to ascertain the relationship between and among spiritual experience, gerotranscendence, social engagement and successful aging. Methods: The Daily Spiritual Experience Scale (DSES), Social Engagement Scale (SES), Gerotranscendence Scale Revised (GS-R) and Expectations Regarding Aging (ERA) were fielded to 349 incarcerated elderly to measure spiritual experience, social engagement, gerotranscendence and successful aging respectively. Data was analyzed using Structural Equation Modelling through AMOS 21. The hypothesized model was evaluated using the goodness of fit and parsimony indices. Results: Social engagement (β= .179, p=.128) and spiritual experience (β= .375, p=.262) contribute to successful aging through the mediating effect of gerotranscendence (β= .973, p=.718). Conclusion: Today more than ever, healthcare providers in penal institutions are challenged to ensure that incarcerated elderly are socially and spiritually engaged; and have high levels of gerotranscendence.

Keywords: elderly, Filipino, gerotranscendence, social engagement, spiritual experience, successful aging

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Authors: Ergun Guntekin

Abstract:

This study investigated elastic constants of scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) grown in Turkey by means of ultrasonic waves. Three Young’s modulus, three shear modulus and six Poisson ratios were determined at constant moisture content (12 %). Three longitudinal and six shear wave velocities propagating along the principal axes of anisotropy, and additionally, three quasi-shear wave velocities at 45° with respect to the principal axes of anisotropy were measured using EPOCH 650 ultrasonic flaw detector. The measured average longitudinal wave velocities for the sapwood in L, R, T directions were 4795, 1713 and 1117 m/s, respectively. The measured average shear wave velocities ranged from 682 to 1382 m/s. The measured quasi-shear wave velocities varied between 642 and 1280 m/s. The calculated average modulus of elasticity values for the sapwood in L, R, T directions were 11913, 1565 and 663 N/mm2, respectively. The calculated shear modulus in LR, LT and RT planes were 1031, 541, 415 N/mm2. Comparing with available literature, the predicted elastic constants are acceptable.

Keywords: elastic constants, prediction, Scots pine, ultrasound

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Authors: Ida Bagus Mandhara Brasika, I Dewa Gde Sathya Deva

Abstract:

Wolbachia is recently developed as the natural enemy of Dengue virus (DENV). It inhibits the replication of DENV in Aedes aegypti. Both DENV and its vector, Aedes aegypty, are sensitive to climate factor especially temperature. The changing of climate has a direct impact on temperature which means changing the vector transmission. Temperature has been known to effect Wolbachia density as it has an ideal temperature to grow. Some scenarios, which are known as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), have been developed by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to predict the future climate based on greenhouse gases concentration. These scenarios are applied to mitigate the future change of Aedes aegypti migration and how Wolbachia could control the virus. The prediction will determine the schemes to release Wolbachia-injected Aedes aegypti to reduce DENV transmission.

Keywords: Aedes aegypti, climate change, dengue virus, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, representative concentration pathways, Wolbachia

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Authors: Amir Jalalian-Khakshour, T. N. Croft

Abstract:

Vertical Axis Wind Turbine (VAWT) systems are becoming increasingly popular as they have a number of advantages over traditional wind turbines. The advantages are reliability, ease of transportation and manufacturing. These attributes could make these technologies useful in developing economies. The performance characteristics of a VAWT are different from a horizontal axis wind turbine, which can be attributed to the low tip speed ratio operation. To unlock the potential of these VAWT systems, the operational behaviour in a number of system topologies and environmental conditions needs to be understood. In this study, a non-linear dynamic simulation method was developed in Matlab and validated against in field data of a large scale, 8-meter rotor diameter prototype. This simulation method has been utilised to determine the performance characteristics of a number of control methods and system topologies. The motivation for this research was to develop a simulation method which accurately captures the operating behaviour and is computationally inexpensive. The model was used to evaluate the performance through parametric studies and optimisation techniques. The study gave useful insights into the applications and energy generation potential of this technology.

Keywords: power generation, renewable energy, rotordynamics, wind energy

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Authors: Agnieszka S. Dzielendziak, Lindsay-Marie Armstrong, Matthew E. Potter, Robert Raja, Pier J. A. Sazio

Abstract:

Reducing carbon dioxide, CO₂, is one of the greatest global challenges. Conversion of CO₂ for utilisation across synthetic fuel, pharmaceutical, and agrochemical industries offers a promising option, yet requires significant research to understanding the complex multiscale processes involved. To experimentally understand and optimize such processes at that catalytic sites and exploring the impact of the process at reactor scale, is too expensive. Computational methods offer significant insight and flexibility but require a more detailed multi-scale approach which is a significant challenge in itself. This work introduces a computational approach which incorporates detailed catalytic models, taken from experimental investigations, into a larger-scale computational flow dynamics framework. The reactor-scale species transport approach is modified near the catalytic walls to determine the influence of catalytic clustering regions. This coupling approach enables more accurate modelling of velocity, pressures, temperatures, species concentrations and near-wall surface characteristics which will ultimately enable the impact of overall reactor design on chemical conversion performance.

Keywords: catalysis, CCU, CO₂, multi-scale model

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