Search results for: maintenance scheme

Authors: Asaiel Mubark Al Hadi

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Background: A frequent anorectal condition known as hemorrhoids, sometimes known as piles, is characterized by a weakening of the anal cushion and the supporting tissue as well as spasms of the internal sphincter. Hemorrhoids are most frequently identified by painless bright red bleeding, prolapse, annoying grape-like tissue prolapse, itching, or a combination of symptoms. digital rectal examination (DRE) and anoscope are used to diagnose it. Constipation, a low-fiber diet, a high body- mass index (BMI), pregnancy, and a reduced physical activity are among the factors that are typically thought to increase the risk of hemorrhoids. Golighers is the most commonly used hemorrhoid classification scheme It is 4 degrees, which determines the degree of the event. The purpose of this study is to assess knowledge and awareness level of the causes and stages of Hemorrhoids in the public of Saudi Arabia. Method: This cross-sectional study was conducted in the Saudi Arabia between Oct 2022- Dec 2022. The study group included at least 384 aged above 18 years. The outcomes of this study were analyzed using the SPSS program using a pre-tested questionnaire. Results: The study included 1410 participants, 69.9% of them were females and 30.1% were males. 53.7% of participants aged 20- 30 years old. 17% of participants had hemorrhoids and 42% had a relative who had hemorrhoids. 42.8% of participants could identify stage 1 of hemorrhoids correctly, 44.7% identified stage 2 correctly, 46.7% identified stage 3 correctly and 58.1% identified stage 4 correctly. Only 28.9% of participants had high level of knowledge about hemorrhoids, 62.7% had moderate knowledge and 8.4% had low knowledge. Conclusion: In conclusion, Saudi general population has poor knowledge of hemorrhoids, their causes and their management approach. There was a significant association between knowledge scores of hemorrhoids with age, gender, residence area and employment.

Keywords: hemorrhoids, external hemorrhoid, internal hemorrhoid, anal fissure, hemorrhoid stages, prolapse, rectal bleeding

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Authors: Eric Wilson Santos Cabral, Marta Monteiro Da Costa Cruz, Rodrigo Pirola Pestana, Vivian Andréa Parreira

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In the transportation sector in Brazil, there is a great challenge that is the maintenance of profit in the face of the great variation in the price of diesel. This directly affects the variable cost of transport companies. Within the railways, part of the great challenges is to overcome the annual budget, cargo and ore transported, thus reducing costs compared to previous years, becoming more efficient each year. Within this scenario, the railway companies are looking for effective measures, aiming at reducing the ratio of liter of diesel consumed by KTKB (Kilometer Gross Ton multiplied by thousand). This ratio represents the indicator of energy efficiency of some railroads in Brazil and in other countries. In this study, we sought to analyze the behavior of the energy efficiency indicator on two parts: The first, with the application of technologies used in locomotives, such as the start-stop system of the diesel engine and the system of tracking and monitoring of fuel. The second, evaluation of the behavior of the variation of the type of cargo transported (loading mix). The study focused on locomotive technology will be carried out using statistical analysis, behavioral evaluation in different operating conditions, such as maneuvers for trains, service trains and freight trains. The analysis will also cover the evaluation of the loading mix made using statistical analysis of the existing railroad database, comparing the energy efficiency per loading mine and type of product. With the completion of this study, the railway undertakings should be able to better target decision-making in order to achieve substantial reductions in transport costs.

Keywords: railway transport, energy efficiency, railway technology, fuel consumption

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Authors: Martynova Alina, Lyubov Buzoleva

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Streptococcus pneumoniae is the causative agent of pneumonias and meningitids throught all the world. Having high genetic diversity, this microorganism can cause different clinical forms of pneumococcal infections and microbiologically it is really difficult diagnosed by routine methods. Also, epidemiological surveillance requires more developed methods of molecular typing because the recent method of serotyping doesn't allow to distinguish invasive and non-invasive isolates properly. Non-coding genome of bacteria seems to be the interesting source for seeking of highly distinguishable markers to discriminate the subspecies of such a variable bacteria as Streptococcus pneumoniae. Technically, we proposed scheme of discrimination of S.pneumoniae strains with amplification of non-coding region (SP_1932) with the following restriction with 2 types of enzymes of Alu1 and Mn1. Aim: This research aimed to compare different methods of typing and their application for molecular epidemiology purposes. Methods: we analyzed population of 100 strains of S.pneumoniae isolated from different patients by different molecular epidemiology methods such as pulse-field gel electophoresis (PFGE), restriction polymorphism analysis (RFLP) and multilolocus sequence typing (MLST), and all of them were compared with classic typing method as serotyping. The discriminative power was estimated with Simpson Index (SI). Results: We revealed that the most discriminative typing method is RFLP (SI=0,97, there were distinguished 42 genotypes).PFGE was slightly less discriminative (SI=0,95, we identified 35 genotypes). MLST is still the best reference method (SI=1.0). Classic method of serotyping showed quite weak discriminative power (SI=0,93, 24 genotypes). In addition, sensivity of RFLP was 100%, specificity was 97,09%. Conclusion: the most appropriate method for routine epidemiology surveillance is RFLP with non-coding region of Streptococcsu pneumoniae, then PFGE, though in some cases these results should be obligatory confirmed by MLST.

Keywords: molecular epidemiology typing, non-coding genome, Streptococcus pneumoniae, MLST

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Authors: Farzaneh Tahmoorian, Bijan Samali, John Yeaman

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Road networks are increasingly expanding all over the world. The construction and maintenance of the road pavements require large amounts of aggregates. Considerable usage of various natural aggregates for constructing roads as well as the increasing rate at which solid waste is generated have attracted the attention of many researchers in the pavement industry to investigate the feasibility of the application of some of the waste materials as alternative materials in pavement construction. Among various waste materials, construction and demolition wastes, including Recycled Construction Aggregate (RCA) constitute a major part of the municipal solid wastes in Australia. Creating opportunities for the application of RCA in civil and geotechnical engineering applications is an efficient way to increase the market value of RCA. However, in spite of such promising potentials, insufficient and inconclusive data and information on the engineering properties of RCA had limited the reliability and design specifications of RCA to date. In light of this, this paper, as a first step of a comprehensive research, aims to investigate the feasibility of the application of RCA obtained from construction and demolition wastes for the replacement of part of coarse aggregates in asphalt mixture. As the suitability of aggregates for using in asphalt mixtures is determined based on the aggregate characteristics, including physical and mechanical properties of the aggregates, an experimental program is set up to evaluate the physical and mechanical properties of RCA. This laboratory investigation included the measurement of compressive strength and workability of RCA, particle shape, water absorption, flakiness index, crushing value, deleterious materials and weak particles, wet/dry strength variation, and particle density. In addition, the comparison of RCA properties with virgin aggregates has been included as part of this investigation and this paper presents the results of these investigations on RCA, basalt, and the mix of RCA/basalt.

Keywords: asphalt, basalt, pavement, recycled aggregate

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Authors: Anna Strakowska, Marian Zaborski

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This abstract focuses an overview of the methods used to create self-healing silicone composites. It has been shown how incorporating of polyhedral oligomeric silsesquioxanes (POSS) molecules with acid and basic groups to silicone rubber affects the barrier properties, mechanical properties in room and reduced temperature or the influence on relaxation rates of the methylvinylsilicone rubber vulcanizates. Moreover, the presence of silsesquioxanes, their content and the way of composites preparing affect the amount of ionic bonds, as indicated by dynamic - mechanical thermal analysis (DMTA) as well as measurements of equilibrium swelling in toluene. The aim of this work was to study the influence of concentration and different functional groups types selected silsesquioxanes compounds on self-healing effect of silicone rubber and obtain elastomers with good barrier and mechanical properties. Composites based on the methylvinylsilicone rubber with fumed silica as the fillers were manufactured and studied. To obtain self-healing effect various silsesquioxanes with amino and acid groups were used. Every tested sample demonstrated the ability to the self-treatment. The most significant effect was observed for system containing amic-acid isobytyl POSS/ aminopropylisobutyl POSS. Composite with this silsesquioxanes was exhibited the best improvement of gas permeability after heal. Moreover, the addition of POSS with acid and basic groups clearly affects the mechanical properties of the vulcanizates. The most significant effect was observed for the composite material consisting of amic-acid isobytyl POSS / aminoethylaminopropylisobutyl POSS, which tensile strength was even greater than the reference vulcanizate with fumed silica. The development of autonomous self-healing materials could have an enormous influence on all industry branches from motorization to power industry. Self-repairing materials would have a massive impact on lengthening product lifetimes, increasing safety, and lowering product costs by reducing maintenance requirements.

Keywords: barrier properties, mechanical properties, POSS, self-healing composites

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Authors: Hyunsun Lee, Yi Zhu

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Wireless ad-hoc network is a decentralized type of temporary machine-to-machine connection that is spontaneous or impromptu so that it does not rely on any fixed infrastructure and centralized administration. As unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), also called drones, have recently become more accessible and widely utilized in military and civilian domains such as surveillance, search and detection missions, traffic monitoring, remote filming, product delivery, to name a few. The communication between these UAVs become possible and materialized through Flying Ad-hoc Networks (FANETs). However, due to the high mobility of UAVs that may cause different types of transmission interference, it is vital to design robust routing protocols for FANETs. In this talk, the multicast routing method based on a modified stochastic branching process is proposed. The stochastic branching process is often used to describe an early stage of an infectious disease outbreak, and the reproductive number in the process is used to classify the outbreak into a major or minor outbreak. The reproductive number to regulate the local transmission rate is adapted and modified for flying ad-hoc network communication. The performance of the proposed routing method is compared with other well-known methods such as flooding method and gossip method based on three measures; average reachability, average node usage and average branching factor. The proposed routing method achieves average reachability very closer to flooding method, average node usage closer to gossip method, and outstanding average branching factor among methods. It can be concluded that the proposed multicast routing scheme is more efficient than well-known routing schemes such as flooding and gossip while it maintains high performance.

Keywords: Flying Ad-hoc Networks, Multicast Routing, Stochastic Branching Process, Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

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Authors: Dawei Shen, Ming Xu, Pengfei Liu

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The joints between simply supported bridge decks and abutments need to be regularly repaired, which would greatly increase the cost during the service life of the bridge. Simply supported girder bridges suffered the most severe damage during earthquakes. Another type of bridge, the integral bridge, of which the superstructure and abutment are rigidly connected, was also used in some European countries. Because no bearings or joints exit in the integral bridge, this type of bridge could significantly reduce maintenance requirements and costs. However, conventional integral bridge usually result in high earth pressure on the abutment and surface settlement in the backfill. To solve these problems, a new type of integral bridge, geosynthetic-reinforced soil (GRS) integral bridge, was come up in recent years. This newly invented bridge has not been used in engineering practices. There was a lack of research on the seismic behavior of the conventional and new type of integral abutments. In addition, no common design code could be found for the calculation of seismic pressure of soil behind the abutment. This paper developed a dynamic constitutive model, which can consider the soil behaviors under cyclic loading. Numerical analyses of the seismic response of a full height integral bridge and GRS integral bridge were carried out using the two-dimensional numerical code, FLAC. A parametric study was also performed to investigate the soil-structure interaction. The results are presented below. The seismic responses of GRS integral bridge together with conventional simply supported bridge, GRS conventional bridge and conventional integral bridge were investigated. The results show that the GRS integral bridge holds the highest seismic stability, followed by conventional integral bridge, GRS simply supported bridge and conventional simply supported bridge. Compared with the integral bridge with 1 m thick abutments, the GRS integral bridge with 0.4 m thick abutments is subjected to a smaller bending moment, and the natural frequency and horizontal displacement remains almost the same. Geosynthetic-reinforcement will be more effective when the abutment becomes thinner or the abutment is higher.

Keywords: geosynthetic-reinforced soil integral bridge, nonlinear hysteretic model, numerical analysis, seismic response

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Authors: Praveen Adusumilli, Meher Lakshmi Konatam, Sadashivudu Gundeti, Stalin Bala

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The invention of trastuzumab has changed the treatment of breast cancer and lives of many patients all over the world. Despite many patients getting benefitted from the drug, it is out of reach for most of the patients. There is very limited real world data regarding the epidemiology and clinical outcome of Her2neu positive breast cancer patients. Materials and Methods: This is a retrospective analysis of breast cancer patients presenting to a tertiary care cancer centre in Southern India from 2007 to2013. All early and locally advanced breast cancer patients, who were Her2neu 3+ on IHC are included in the study and evaluated in terms of epidemiology, 3-year disease free survival (DFS)and 5-year overall survival(OS). Chemotherapy regimens used were-FAC 6 cycles or AC 4 cycles followed by 12 cycles of weekly paclitaxel . Trastuzumab was given after 6 cycles of FAC or weekly with paclitaxel followed by 3weekly maintenance until 1 year. Results: Over the period of this study there were 885 newly diagnosed cases of carcinoma breast, of which 242 (27%) were Her2neu positive, 360(40%) were hormone receptor positive, and 212(24%) were triple negative. A total of 71(8%) were Her2neu equivocal of which only 10 patients got FISH test done. Of the 212 newly diagnosed patients, only 74 (29%) opted to have standard of care therapy with trastuzumab at our centre, out of which 52(24%), 8(3%), received under insurance, paying basis respectively. 14(9%) patients received the care as part of clinical trial program (ALTTO trial). 7 (9.72%) patients developed decrease of ejection fraction by greater than 10%, requiring stoppage of trastuzumab out of which 5 were restarted in 2 months. Patients receiving trastuzumab along with chemotherapy had longer 3year DFS 92% vs. 60% (p value<0.0001) when compared to chemotherapy alone. 5 year OS was 87% vs 44% (p-value <0.0001) compared to chemotherapy alone. Conclusion: Trastuzumab with chemotherapy improves the DFS and OS in Her2neu positive patients. The biggest constraint is the cost of the treatment and absence of universal health security net to treat all patients with this diagnosis.

Keywords: breast cancer, Her 2 neu positive, real world data, Trastuzumab

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Authors: Juan Luis Leal, Rafael Maestre, Ovidio López

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As innovation progresses, more possibilities are made available to increase the efficiency and reach of solutions for Smart Cities, most of which require the data provided by the Internet of Things (IoT) devices and may even have higher power requirements such as motors or actuators. A reliable power supply with the lowest maintenance is a requirement for the success of these solutions in the long term. Energy harvesting, mainly solar, becomes the solution of choice in most cases, but only if there is enough power to be harvested, which may depend on the device location (e.g., outdoors vs. indoor). This is the case of Smart Waste Containers with compaction systems, which have moderately high-power requirements, and may be installed in places with little sunlight for solar generation. It should be noted that waste is unloaded from the containers with cranes, so sudden and irregular movements may happen, making wired power unviable. In these cases, a wireless power supply may be a great alternative. This paper proposes a cost-effective two coil resonant wireless power transfer (WPT) system and describes its implementation, which has been carried out within an R&D project and validated in real settings with smart containers. Experimental results prove that the developed system achieves wireless power transmission up to 35W in the range of 5 cm to 1 m with a peak efficiency of 78%. The circuit is operated at relatively low resonant frequencies, which combined with enough wire-to-wire separation between the coil windings, reduce the losses caused by the proximity effect and, therefore, allow the use of common stranded wire instead of Litz wire, this without reducing the efficiency significantly. All these design considerations led to a final system that achieves a high efficiency for the desired charging range, simplifying the energy supply for Smart Containers as well as other devices that may benefit from a cost-effective wireless charging system.

Keywords: electromagnetic coupling, resonant wireless charging, smart recycling containers, wireless power transfer

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Authors: Said Moqeem Sadat, Saito Takahiro, Inuzuka Norikazu, Sugiyama Ikuo

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Kabul city is the capital of Afghanistan with a population of about 4.0 million in 2009 and 6.5 million in 2025. It is geographically located in a narrow plain valley along the Kabul River and is surrounded by high mountains. Due to its sharp geological condition, the city has been suffering from floods caused by storm water and snow melting water in the rainy season. Meanwhile, potable water resources are becoming a critical issue as the underground water table is decreasing falling rapidly due to domestic usage, industrial and agricultural activities usage especially in the dry season. This paper focuses on flood water management in Kabul including suburban agricultural area considering not only for flood protection but also: 1. To reserve the quality underground water for the future population growth. 2. To irrigate farming area in dry season using storm water ponds in rainy season. 3. To discharge city contaminated flood water to the downstream safely using existing channels/new pipes. Cost and benefit is considered in this study to find out a suitable flood protection method both in rural area and city center from a view point of 1 to 3 mentioned above. In this analysis, cost mainly consists of lost opportunity to develop lands due to flood ponds in addition to construction and maintenance one including connecting channels for water collecting/discharging. Benefit mainly consists of damage reduction of flood loss due to counter measures (this is corresponding cost) in addition to the contribution to agricultural crops. As far as reservation of the ground water for the future city growth is concerned, future demand and supply are compared in case that the pumping amount is limited by this irrigation system.

Keywords: cost-benefit, hydrological modeling, water management, water quality

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Authors: Afroditi Zamanidou, Dionysios Giannakopoulos, Konstantinos Manolitsis

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A notable amount of electrical energy demand in many countries worldwide is used to cover public energy demand for road, square and other public spaces’ lighting. Renewable energy can contribute in a significant way to the electrical energy demand coverage for public lighting. This paper focuses on the sizing and design of a hybrid energy system (HES) exploiting the solar-wind energy potential to meet the electrical energy needs of lighting roads, squares and other public spaces. Moreover, the proposed HES provides coverage of the electrical energy demand for a Wi-Fi hotspot and a charging hotspot for the end-users. Alongside the sizing of the energy production system of the proposed HES, in order to ensure a reliable supply without interruptions, a storage system is added and sized. Multiple scenarios of energy consumption are assumed and applied in order to optimize the sizing of the energy production system and the energy storage system. A database with meteorological prediction data for 51 areas in Greece is developed in order to assess the possible deployment of the proposed HES. Since there are detailed meteorological prediction data for all 51 areas under investigation, the use of these data is evaluated, comparing them to real meteorological data. The meteorological prediction data are exploited to form three hourly production profiles for each area for every month of the year; minimum, average and maximum energy production. The energy production profiles are combined with the energy consumption scenarios and the sizing results of the energy production system and the energy storage system are extracted and presented for every area. Finally, the economic performance of the proposed HES in terms of Levelized cost of energy is estimated by calculating and assessing construction, operation and maintenance costs.

Keywords: energy production system sizing, Greece’s deployment potential, meteorological prediction data, wind-solar hybrid energy system, levelized cost of energy

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Authors: Sandeep Goyal, Sandeep Saluja

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Natural antioxidants have major role in maintenance of health. Green tea extract principally contains epigallocatechin-3-gallate (EGCG), as its abundant antioxidant constituent. Green tea is consumed daily worldwide as antioxidant to combat CNS diseases and has traditional importance also. EGCG has neuroprotective potential in various animal models of Parkinson disease, Alzheimer’s disease etc. but its exact mechanism has not been ruled out. The present study has been designed to investigate the anti-inflammatory, antioxidant and mitochondrial modulating mechanism of neuroprotective effect of epigallocatechin-3-gallate against rodent model of rotenone induced Parkinson’s disease (PD). The behavioural alterations were assessed by using open field test apparatus, Chatilon’s grip strength test apparatus and elevated plus maze for determining the locomotor activity, grip strength and cognition respectively. Biochemically, various parameters to assess oxidative stress, neuroinflammation and neurochemical estimations were performed on rat brain homogenates. A histological examination of rat brain striatum was done to check the neurodegeneration. Epigallocatechin-3-gallate (EGCG) at 10 & 20 mg/kg, were investigated for their neuroprotective potential along with levodopa as a standard agent. Minocycline, a microglial activation inhibitor, was administered alone and in combination with EGCG. EGCG and minocycline produced ameliorative effect against rotenone induced PD like symptoms by significantly reduced behavioral, biochemical and histological alterations. Results of our study reveal the neuroprotective effect of EGCG and minocycline against rotenone induced PD. Results of our study indicate that EGCG exerted neuroprotective effect against rotenone induced PD via its antioxidant, anti-inflammatory and mitochondrial modulating mechanisms and substantiate its previously reported and traditional claims for its use in CNS diseases.

Keywords: antioxidants, neurotoxicity, rotenone, EGCG

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Authors: Obose Angela Oriazowanlan

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The role of entrepreneurship in preventing poverty and mitigating other post-retirement challenges has been acknowledged to be crucial for effective post-retirement life management, but financial constraints could constitute a bane to pre-retirees’ entrepreneurial intentions. Therefore, the study determined the financial knowledge that could spur their intentions and readiness for a business start that could enable them to surmount post-retirement life challenges. Two research questions guided the study. The descriptive survey research design was adopted and the population comprised all the pre-retirees in universities in Edo State. 250 respondents were randomly selected using the simple random sampling technique from three purposive selected universities. Primary data were gathered through the use of a structured questionnaire, which was validated and tested to have a reliability coefficient value of 0.84. The descriptive statistics of mean and standard deviation were used to answer the research questions and test the respondents’ homogeneity. The findings revealed, among others, that the respondents perceived the benefits of entrepreneurship-business startups to ensure their effective post-retirement life management but intended to rely totally on their retirement savings benefits with the Contributory Pension Scheme (CPS) for business startups. Based on the findings, it was recommended, among others, that pre-retirees should make contingency savings plans and that the employers and government should provide them with financial education in order to acquaint them with relevant financial knowledge to access other forms of business financing such as loans, bank overdraft, angel investors, venture capital and government grants among others prior to final disengagement.

Keywords: financial knowledge, entrepreneurial intentions, availability of business funds, business investment and fulfilled post-retirement living.

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Authors: Lidimma Benjamin, Nimmyel Gwakzing, Wuyep Nanyi

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Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) has many stakeholders, each with their own values and interests. This study will focus on the diversity of the values and interests within and across groups of stakeholders by quantifying the value that stakeholders attached to several quality attributes of TVET, and also find out to what extent TVET stakeholders differ in their values. The quality of TVET therefore, depends on how well it aligns with the values and interests of these stakeholders. The five stakeholders are parents, students, teachers, policy makers, and work place training supervisors. The 9 attributes are employer appreciation of students, graduation rate, obtained computer skills of students, mentoring hours in workplace learning/Students Industrial Work Experience Scheme (SIWES), challenge, structure, students’ appreciation of teachers, schooling hours, and attention to civic education. 346 respondents (comprising Parents, Students, Teachers, Policy Makers, and Workplace Training Supervisors) were repeatedly asked to rank a set of 4 programs, each with a specific value on the nine quality indicators. Conjoint analysis was used to obtain the values that the stakeholders assigned to the 9 attributes when evaluating the quality of TVET programs. Rank-ordered logistic regression was the statistical/tool used for ranking the respondents values assign to the attributes. The similarities and diversity in values and interests of the different stakeholders will be of use by both Nigerian government and TVET colleges, to improve the overall quality of education and the match between vocational programs and their stakeholders simultaneous evaluation and combination of information in product attributes. Such approach models the decision environment by confronting a respondent with choices that are close to real-life choices. Therefore, it is more realistically than traditional survey methods.

Keywords: TVET, vignette study, conjoint analysis, quality perception, educational stakeholders

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Authors: Rorick Daniel Tovar Galvan

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The existence of different legal systems represents an important barrier for married couples that attempt to reside in another country. Each movement can cause important changes in the rights and obligations derived from the marriage since a different law could be used by the courts to solve legal disputes arising from their relationship. In a context in which it is increasingly common to move from one country to another, people cannot be certain about the outcomes of proceedings dealing with i.e., the dissolution of property regime, maintenance payments or time to wait to initiate divorce because a foreign – and in most cases unknown – law could apply every time they move. At first glance, the answer to this issue seems to be the harmonization of the legal systems: the greater the mobility of individuals inside a group of countries, the higher the similarities of their laws should be. Such a solution could be positive for spouses because a higher degree of legal certainty would be reached in case the same legal rules applied regardless of the place where the couple lives. However, the legal pluralism brings with it also advantages that could be appreciated when one looks closely at the economic rationale behind the legal institution of marriage. This contribution carries out an economic analysis of the existence of different legal systems in the area of marriage law and proposes another strategy to cope with the problems arising from legal pluralism. Far from eliminating the diversity of legal systems, one wishes to foster it, since significant advantages could arise from such diversity in case couples are permitted to choose the applicable law themselves. Based on the idea that the law could be seem as a product offered in the market as well as states and spouses as suppliers and consumers of this product, the paper shows the advantages of designing a legal framework that allows spouses to determine freely the law governing the legal effects of their marriage. Instead of promoting the harmonization of the substantive law, one explores the benefits of encouraging the regulatory competition at international level in the area of marriage law.

Keywords: conflict of laws, harmonization, international marriage law, law and economics, regulatory competition

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Authors: Anastasios Manos, Despina Elisabeth Filippidou

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Introduction: Historical buildings are an inte-gral part of the cultural heritage of every place, and beyond the obvious need for protection against risks, they have specific requirements regarding the handling of hazards and disasters such as fire, floods, earthquakes, etc. Ensuring high levels of protection and safety for these buildings is impera-tive for two distinct but interconnected reasons: a) they themselves constitute cultural heritage, and b) they are often used as museums/cultural spaces, necessitating the protection of both human life (vis-itors and workers) and the cultural treasures they house. However, these buildings present serious constraints in implementing the necessary measures to protect them from destruction due to their unique architecture, construction methods, and/or the structural materials used in the past, which have created an existing condition that is sometimes challenging to reshape and operate within the framework of modern regulations and protection measures. One of the most devastating risks that threaten historical buildings is fire. Catastrophic fires demonstrate the need for timely evaluation of fire safety measures in historical buildings. Recog-nizing the criticality of protecting historical build-ings from the risk of fire, the Confederation of Fire Protection Associations in Europe (CFPA E) issued specific guidelines in 2013 (CFPA-E Guideline No 30:2013 F) for the fire protection of historical buildings at the European level. However, until now, few actions have been implemented towards leveraging modern technologies in the field of con-struction and maintenance of buildings, such as Building Information Modeling (BIM) and the Inter-net of Things (IoT), for the protection of historical buildings from risks like fires, floods, etc. The pro-ject BIM4Cult has bee developed in order to fill this gap. It is a tool for timely assessing and monitoring of the fire safety level of historical buildings using BIM and IoT technologies in an integrated manner. The tool serves as a decision support expert system for improving the fire safety of historical buildings by continuously monitoring, controlling and as-sessing critical risk factors for fire.

Keywords: Iot, fire, BIM, expert system

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Authors: Monalisha Ghosh, Asit Mohanty

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The lack of sanitation increases living costs, decreases spend on education and nutrition, lowers income earning potential, and threatens safety and welfare. This is especially true for rural India. Only 32% of rural households have their own toilets and that less than half of Indian households have a toilet at home. Of the estimated billion people in the world who defecate in the open, more than half reside in rural India. It is empirically established that poor sanitation leads to high infant mortality rate and low income generation in rural India. In India, 1,600 children die every day before reaching their fifth birthday and 24% of girls drop out of school as the lack of basic sanitation. Above all, lack of sanitation is not a symptom of poverty but a major contributing factor. According to census 2011, 67.3% of the rural households in the country still did not have access to sanitation facilities. India’s sanitation deficit leads to losses worth roughly 6% of its gross domestic product (GDP) according to World Bank estimates by raising the disease burden in the country. The dropout rate for girl child is thirty percent in schools in rural areas because of lack of sanitation facilities for girl students. The productivity loss per skilled labors during a year is calculated at Rs.44, 160 in Odisha. The performance of the state of Odisha has not been satisfactory in improving sanitation facilities. The biggest challenge is triggering behavior change in vast section of rural population regarding need to use toilets. Another major challenge is funding and implementation for improvement of sanitation facility. In an environment of constrained economic resources, Public Private Partnership in form of performance based management or maintenance contract will be all the more relevant to improve the sanitation status in rural sector.

Keywords: rural sanitation, infant mortality rate, income, granger causality, pooled OLS method test public private partnership

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Authors: Tamar Trop, Michal Roffeh

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One of the emerging trends in construction is installing an exterior “green wall” (GW). GW is an overarching and most common term for various techniques of incorporating greenery into buildings’ vertical elements, mainly facades. This green infrastructure yields numerous benefits for the urban environment, the public, and the buildings’ tenants and users, such as enhancing air quality and biodiversity, managing stormwater runoff, mitigating urban heat island and climate change, improving urban aesthetics and mental wellbeing, improving indoor comfort conditions, and saving energy. Yet, the penetration rate of GWs into the construction market, especially into the housing sector, is still very slow. Furthermore, the research regarding prospective homebuyers’ willingness to purchase and pay a price premium for GW apartments is scarce and does not refer to newly built buildings and specific GW types. This research aims to narrow these knowledge gaps by exploring the willingness of prospective homebuyers in Israel to purchase a newly built apartment with a hydroponic living wall, the size of the PP that they would be willing to pay for it, and the various factors ̶ knowledge-related, concern, economic, and personal ̶ that influence these motivations. A nationwide online survey was conducted among a sample of 514 adults using a structured questionnaire. Findings show that despite low familiarity with GWs and strong concerns about various kinds of nuisance, technical issues, and maintenance costs, potential homebuyers express a relatively high willingness to purchase and pay a significant price premium for such an apartment. The main motivations behind this willingness were found to be potential energy savings and governmental incentives. Study findings can contribute to a better understanding of the maturity of the housing market in Israel to adopt GWs and to better tailor intervention tools for increasing GWs’ uptake among potential homebuyers.

Keywords: green façade, green wall, living wall, willingness to pay

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Authors: Lim Chen Kim, Tan Kian Lam, Chan Yi Chee

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This research presents a multi-modal simulation in the reconstruction of the past and the construction of present in digital cultural heritage on mobile platform. In bringing the present life, the virtual environment is generated through a presented scheme for rapid and efficient construction of 360° panoramic view. Then, acoustical heritage model and crowd model are presented and improvised into the 360° panoramic view. For the reconstruction of past life, the crowd is simulated and rendered in an old trading port. However, the keystone of this research is in a virtual walkthrough that shows the virtual present life in 2D and virtual past life in 3D, both in an environment of virtual heritage sites in George Town through mobile device. Firstly, the 2D crowd is modelled and simulated using OpenGL ES 1.1 on mobile platform. The 2D crowd is used to portray the present life in 360° panoramic view of a virtual heritage environment based on the extension of Newtonian Laws. Secondly, the 2D crowd is animated and rendered into 3D with improved variety and incorporated into the virtual past life using Unity3D Game Engine. The behaviours of the 3D models are then simulated based on the enhancement of the classical model of Boid algorithm. Finally, a demonstration system is developed and integrated with the models, techniques and algorithms of this research. The virtual walkthrough is demonstrated to a group of respondents and is evaluated through the user-centred evaluation by navigating around the demonstration system. The results of the evaluation based on the questionnaires have shown that the presented virtual walkthrough has been successfully deployed through a multi-modal simulation and such a virtual walkthrough would be particularly useful in a virtual tour and virtual museum applications.

Keywords: Boid Algorithm, Crowd Simulation, Mobile Platform, Newtonian Laws, Virtual Heritage

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Authors: Cagri Mollamahmutoglu, Ali Mercan, Aykut Levent

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Studies concerning the microstructures are becoming more important as the utilization of various micro-electro mechanical systems (MEMS) are increasing. Thus in recent years, thermal buckling and vibration analysis of microstructures have been subject to many investigations that are utilizing different numerical methods. In this study, thermal effects on mechanical response of a functionally graded (FG) Timoshenko micro-beam are presented in the framework of a mixed finite element formulation. Size effects are taken into consideration via modified couple stress theory. The mixed formulation is based on a function which in turn is derived via Gateaux Differential scientifically. After the resolution of all field equations of the beam, a potential operator is carefully constructed. Then this operator is used for the manufacturing of the functional. Usual procedures of finite element approximation are utilized for the derivation of the mixed finite element equations once the potential is obtained. Resulting finite element formulation allows usage of C₀ type simple linear shape functions and avoids shear-locking phenomena, which is a common shortcoming of the displacement-based formulations of moderately thick beams. The developed numerical scheme is used to obtain the effects of thermal loads on the static bending, free vibration and buckling of FG Timoshenko micro-beams for different power-law parameters, aspect ratios and boundary conditions. The versatility of the mixed formulation is presented over other numerical methods such as generalized differential quadrature method (GDQM). Another attractive property of the formulation is that it allows direct calculation of the contribution of micro effects on the overall mechanical response.

Keywords: micro-beam, functionally graded materials, thermal effect, mixed finite element method

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Authors: Alafara A. Baba, Kuranga I. Ayinla, Folahan A. Adekola, Rafiu B. Bale

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Due to increasing demands and diverse applications of copper oxide as pigment in ceramics, cuprammonium hydroxide solution for rayon, p-type semi-conductor, dry cell batteries production and as safety disposal of hazardous materials, a study on the hydrometallurgical operations involving leaching, solvent extraction and precipitation for the recovery of copper for producing high grade copper oxide from a Nigerian chalcopyrite ore in chloride media has been examined. At a particular set of experimental parameter with respect to acid concentration, reaction temperature and particle size, the leaching investigation showed that the ore dissolution increases with increasing acid concentration, temperature and decreasing particle diameter at a moderate stirring. The kinetics data has been analyzed and was found to follow diffusion control mechanism. At optimal conditions, the extent of ore dissolution reached 94.3%. The recovery of the total copper from the hydrochloric acid-leached chalcopyrite ore was undertaken by solvent extraction and precipitation techniques, prior to the beneficiation of the purified solution as copper oxide. The purification of the leach liquor was firstly done by precipitation of total iron and manganese using Ca(OH)2 and H2O2 as oxidizer at pH 3.5 and 4.25, respectively. An extraction efficiency of 97.3% total copper was obtained by 0.2 mol/L Dithizone in kerosene at 25±2ºC within 40 minutes, from which ≈98% Cu from loaded organic phase was successfully stripped by 0.1 mol/L HCl solution. The beneficiation of the recovered pure copper solution was carried out by crystallization through alkali addition followed by calcination at 600ºC to obtain high grade copper oxide (Tenorite, CuO: 05-0661). Finally, a simple hydrometallurgical scheme for the operational extraction procedure amenable for industrial utilization and economic sustainability was provided.

Keywords: chalcopyrite ore, Nigeria, copper, copper oxide, solvent extraction

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Authors: Martins Y. Otache, John J. Musa, Abayomi I. Kuti, Mustapha Mohammed

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The performance of an artificial neural network (ANN) is contingent on a host of factors, for instance, the network optimisation scheme. In view of this, the study examined the general implications of the ANN training optimisation algorithm on its forecast performance. To this end, the Bayesian regularisation (Br), Levenberg-Marquardt (LM), and the adaptive learning gradient descent: GDM (with momentum) algorithms were employed under different ANN structural configurations: (1) single-hidden layer, and (2) double-hidden layer feedforward back propagation network. Results obtained revealed generally that the gradient descent with momentum (GDM) optimisation algorithm, with its adaptive learning capability, used a relatively shorter time in both training and validation phases as compared to the Levenberg- Marquardt (LM) and Bayesian Regularisation (Br) algorithms though learning may not be consummated; i.e., in all instances considering also the prediction of extreme flow conditions for 1-day and 5-day ahead, respectively especially using the ANN model. In specific statistical terms on the average, model performance efficiency using the coefficient of efficiency (CE) statistic were Br: 98%, 94%; LM: 98 %, 95 %, and GDM: 96 %, 96% respectively for training and validation phases. However, on the basis of relative error distribution statistics (MAE, MAPE, and MSRE), GDM performed better than the others overall. Based on the findings, it is imperative to state that the adoption of ANN for real-time forecasting should employ training algorithms that do not have computational overhead like the case of LM that requires the computation of the Hessian matrix, protracted time, and sensitivity to initial conditions; to this end, Br and other forms of the gradient descent with momentum should be adopted considering overall time expenditure and quality of the forecast as well as mitigation of network overfitting. On the whole, it is recommended that evaluation should consider implications of (i) data quality and quantity and (ii) transfer functions on the overall network forecast performance.

Keywords: streamflow, neural network, optimisation, algorithm

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Authors: Bumjo Kim, Hyun Jin Kim, Joon Ha Kim

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The separate sewer system is that collects the wastewater as a sewer pipe and rainfall as a stormwater pipe separately, and then sewage is treated in the wastewater treatment plant, the stormwater is discharged to rivers or lakes through stormwater drainage pipes. Unfortunately, even for separate sewer systems, it is not possible to prevent Rainfall Driven Inflow/Infiltration(RDII) completely to the sewer pipe. Even if the sewerage line is renovated, there is an ineluctable RDII due to the combined sewer system in the house or the difficulty of sewage maintenance in private areas. The basic statistical analysis was performed using environmental data including rainfall, sewage, water qualities and groundwater level in the strict of Gwangju in ​South Korea. During rainfall in the target area, RDII showed an increased rate of 13.4 ~ 53.0% compared to that of a clear day and showed a rapid hydrograph response of 0.3 ~ 3.0 hr. As a result of water quality analysis, BOD5 concentration decreased by 17.3 % and salinity concentration decreased by 8.8 % at the representative spot in the project area compared to the sunny day during rainfall. In contrast to the seasonal fluctuation range of 0.38 m ~ 0.55 m in groundwater in Gwangju area and 0.58 m ~ 0.78 m in monthly fluctuation range, while the difference between groundwater level and the depth of sewer pipe laying was 2.70 m on average, which is larger than the range of fluctuation. Comprehensively, it can be concluded that the increasing of flowrate at sewer line is due to not infiltration water caused by groundwater level rise, construction failure, cracking due to joint failure or conduit deterioration, rainfall was directly inflowed into the sewer line rapidly. Acknowledgements: This work was supported by the 'Climate Technology Development and Application' research project (#K07731) through a grant provided by GIST in 2017.

Keywords: ground water, rainfall, rainfall driven inflow/infiltration, separate sewer system

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Authors: Bhenjamin Jordan L. Ona

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Weather modification is an act of altering weather systems that catches interest on scientific studies. Cloud seeding is a common form of weather alteration. On the same principle, tropical cyclone mitigation experiment follows the methods of cloud seeding with intensity to account for. This study will present the effects of aerosol to tropical cyclone cloud microphysics and intensity. The framework of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model incorporated with Thompson aerosol-aware scheme is the prime host to support the aerosol-cloud microphysics calculations of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) ingested into the tropical cyclones before making landfall over the Philippine coast. The coupled microphysical and radiative effects of aerosols will be analyzed using numerical data conditions of Tropical Storm Ketsana (2009), Tropical Storm Washi (2011), and Typhoon Haiyan (2013) associated with varying CCN number concentrations per simulation per typhoon: clean maritime, polluted, and very polluted having 300 cm-3, 1000 cm-3, and 2000 cm-3 aerosol number initial concentrations, respectively. Aerosol species like sulphates, sea salts, black carbon, and organic carbon will be used as cloud nuclei and mineral dust as ice nuclei (IN). To make the study as realistic as possible, investigation during the biomass burning due to forest fire in Indonesia starting October 2015 as Typhoons Mujigae/Kabayan and Koppu/Lando had been seeded with aerosol emissions mainly comprises with black carbon and organic carbon, will be considered. Emission data that will be used is from NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The physical mechanism/s of intensification or deintensification of tropical cyclones will be determined after the seeding experiment analyses.

Keywords: aerosol, CCN, IN, tropical cylone

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Authors: Ghalia Shamlan, M. Denise Robertson, Adam Collins

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Appetite control (i.e. control of energy intake) is important for weight maintenance. Exercise contributes to the most variable component of energy expenditure (EE) but its impact is beyond the energy cost of exercise including physiological, behavioural, and appetite effects. Exercise is known to acutely influence effect appetite but evidence as to the independent effect of intensity is lacking. This study investigated the role of exercise intensity on appetite, energy intake (EI), appetite related hormone, fat utilisation and subjective measures of appetite. One hour after a standardised breakfast, 10 sedentary overweight volunteers. Subjects undertook either 8 repeated 60 second bouts of cycling at 95% VO2max (high intensity) or 30 minutes of continuous cycling, at a fixed cadence, equivalent to 50% of the participant’s VO2max (low intensity) in a randomised crossover design. Glucose, NEFA, glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) were measured fasted, postprandial, and pre and post-exercise. Satiety was assessed subjectively throughout the study using visual analogue scales (VAS). Ad libitum intake of a pasta meal was measured at the end (3-h post-breakfast). Interestingly, there was not significant difference in EE fat oxidation between HI and LI post-exercise. Also, no significant effect of high intensity (HI) was observed on the ad libitum meal, 24h and 48h EI post-exercise. However the mean 24h EI was 3000 KJ lower following HI than low intensity (LI). Despite, no significant differences in hunger score, glucose, NEFA and GLP-1 between both intensities were observed. However, NEFA and GLP-1 plasma level were higher until 30 min post LI. In conclusion, the similarity of EE and oxidation outcomes could give overweight individuals an option to choose between intensities. However, HI could help to reduce EI. There are mechanisms and consequences of exercise in short and long-term appetite control; however, these mechanisms warrant further explanation. These results support the need for future research in to the role of in regulation energy balance, especially for obese people.

Keywords: appetite, exercise, food intake, energy expenditure

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Authors: Othman Maklouf, Abdunnaser Tresh

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Land vehicle navigation is subject of great interest today. Global Positioning System (GPS) is the main navigation system for positioning in such systems. GPS alone is incapable of providing continuous and reliable positioning, because of its inherent dependency on external electromagnetic signals. Inertial Navigation (INS) is the implementation of inertial sensors to determine the position and orientation of a vehicle. The availability of low-cost Micro-Electro-Mechanical-System (MEMS) inertial sensors is now making it feasible to develop INS using an inertial measurement unit (IMU). INS has unbounded error growth since the error accumulates at each step. Usually, GPS and INS are integrated with a loosely coupled scheme. With the development of low-cost, MEMS inertial sensors and GPS technology, integrated INS/GPS systems are beginning to meet the growing demands of lower cost, smaller size, and seamless navigation solutions for land vehicles. Although MEMS inertial sensors are very inexpensive compared to conventional sensors, their cost (especially MEMS gyros) is still not acceptable for many low-end civilian applications (for example, commercial car navigation or personal location systems). An efficient way to reduce the expense of these systems is to reduce the number of gyros and accelerometers, therefore, to use a partial IMU (ParIMU) configuration. For land vehicular use, the most important gyroscope is the vertical gyro that senses the heading of the vehicle and two horizontal accelerometers for determining the velocity of the vehicle. This paper presents a field experiment for a low-cost strap down (ParIMU)\GPS combination, with data post processing for the determination of 2-D components of position (trajectory), velocity and heading. In the present approach, we have neglected earth rotation and gravity variations, because of the poor gyroscope sensitivities of our low-cost IMU (Inertial Measurement Unit) and because of the relatively small area of the trajectory.

Keywords: GPS, IMU, Kalman filter, materials engineering

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Authors: Al-Nouri Doha Mostfa, Al-Khalifa Abdulrahman Salih

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The effects of long-term supplementation with different dietary omega-6/omega-3 (ω-6/ω-3) polyunsaturated fatty acid (PUFAs) ratios on the bone marrow fatty acids level, plasma biomarkers of bone metabolism, and minerals content in bone were evaluated in rabbits. Weanling male and female New Zealand white rabbits were randomly assigned to five groups and fed ad libitum for 100 days on diets containing 70 g/kg different dietary oils which providing the following ω-6/ω-3 ratios: soy bean oil (SBO control, 8.68), sesame oil (SO, 21.75), fish oil (FO, 0.39), DHA algae oil (DHA, 0.63), and DHA and ARA algae oils (DHA/ARA, 0.68). The bone marrow arachidonic (ARA), eicosapentaenoic (EPA), and docosahexaenoic (DHA) fatty acid levels were significantly influenced by and reflected the dietary ω-6/ω-3 ratios fed to rabbits. Rabbits fed on the FO diet maintained a lower ω-6/ω-3 ratio and a higher EPA and DHA levels, those fed on the DHA/ARA diet maintained a lower ω-6/ω-3 ratio and a higher ARA level, while those fed on the SO diet maintained a higher ω-6/ω-3 ratio and a lower ARA level. Plasma alkaline phosphatase (ALP) activity was significantly higher in male and female rabbits fed the DHA/ARA diet compared with those fed the control, SO, FO, or DHA diets. There was a significant main effect of dietary treatment on femur calcium (Ca), phosphorous (P), magnesium (Mg), and zinc (Zn) contents in both genders. This study confirmed that different dietary oil sources with varying ω-6/ω-3 ratios significantly altered the fatty acids level of bone marrow. In addition, the significant elevation in minerals content and the maintenance of optimal Ca/P ratio in bone of DHA/ARA and DHA fed groups beside the significant elevation in ALP activity in the DHA/ARA fed group proved that marine algae oils may be promising dietary sources for promoting bone mineralization and formation, thus improving bone mass during the growth stage.

Keywords: arachidonic (ARA), docosahexaenoic (DHA), eicosapentaenoic (EPA), growing rabbits

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Authors: Tongpong Sriboon, Prapita Thanarak, Chaitawatch Khunrangabsang

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Nowadays, the usage of power generated from photovoltaic system has been promoted significantly in Thailand. The targeted result which is to increase the Solar Power Generation in 2036 to 6000 megawatts (MW) was planned by Alternative Energy Development Plan (AEDP 2015) and Power Development Plan (PDP 2015). The solar rooftop 200 MW was promoted and supported under the Feed-in Tariff scheme (FiT) in two phases; phase I in 2012 and phase II in 2015. However, the number of people interested in supporting the projects reduced due to many reasons which range from the first process to the last that is to sell electricity back to Electricity Authority. This paper will review this situation especially in total electricity generated from solar rooftop system during the day that has been sold back to the grid utility in different capacity FiT rates. With many stakeholders involved, the regulations and criteria were established to maintain the standard of the system. Besides, lots of problems have occurred during the processes including reliability and quality. These problems were shortly followed by other irrevocably issues concerning politics, social, economic etc. In order to effectively develop solar PV power system in Thailand, the problems and solutions were compared to those from six countries including Japan, Australia. America, China, German and Malaysia. This paper particularly focuses on policies and measurement implemented to encourage the rising in solar PV system interest. This review enables one to gain insight into the nature of the changes that have taken place in each and every country mentioned above as well as the underlying reasons behind them. Brief analysis is carried out on identify key challenges and opportunities for solar PV application. This could help create a development path that is suitable with situations to enhance the overall performance of solar PV power generating system in Thailand.

Keywords: solar PV rooftop, PV policy, self-consumption, solar PV power generation

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Authors: Ahmad Rasyadan Arshad, A. Rahman A. Jamal, N. Mohamed Ibrahim, Nor Azian Abdul Murad

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Introduction: Parkinson’s disease (PD) is a complex and asymptomatic disease where patients are usually diagnosed at late stage where about 70% of the dopaminergic neurons are lost. Therefore, identification of molecular biomarkers is crucial for early diagnosis of PD. MicroRNA (miRNA) is a short nucleotide non-coding small RNA which regulates the gene expression in post-translational process. The involvement of these miRNAs in neurodegenerative diseases includes maintenance of neuronal development, necrosis, mitochondrial dysfunction and oxidative stress. Thus, miRNA could be a potential biomarkers for diagnosis of PD. Objective: This study aim to identify the miRNA involved in Late Onset PD (LOPD) and Early Onset PD (EOPD) compared to the controls. Methods: This is a case-control study involved PD patients in the Chancellor Tunku Muhriz Hospital at the UKM Medical Centre. miRNA samples were extracted using miRNeasy serum/plasma kit from Qiagen. The quality of miRNA extracted was determined using Agilent RNA 6000 Nano kit in the Bioanalyzer. miRNA expression was performed using GeneChip miRNA 4.0 chip from Affymetrix. Microarray was performed in EOPD (n= 7), LOPD (n=9) and healthy control (n=11). Expression Console and Transcriptomic Analyses Console were used to analyze the microarray data. Result: miR-129-5p was significantly downregulated in EOPD compared to LOPD with -4.2 fold change (p = <0.050. miR-301a-3p was upregulated in EOPD compared to healthy control (fold = 10.3, p = <0.05). In LOPD versus healthy control, miR-486-3p (fold = 15.28, p = <0.05), miR-29c-3p (fold = 12.21, p = <0.05) and miR-301a-3p (fold = 10.01, p =< 0.05) were upregulated. Conclusion: Several miRNA have been identified to be differentially expressed in EOPD compared to LOPD and PD versus control. These miRNAs could serve as the potential biomarkers for early diagnosis of PD. However, these miRNAs need to be validated in a larger sample size.

Keywords: early onset PD, late onset PD, microRNA (miRNA), microarray

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Authors: H. Taylan Selamlar, I. Yavuz, G. Yapar

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It is difficult to make predictions especially about the future and making accurate predictions is not always easy. However, better predictions remain the foundation of all science therefore the development of accurate, robust and reliable forecasting methods is very important. Numerous number of forecasting methods have been proposed and studied in the literature. There are still two dominant major forecasting methods: Box-Jenkins ARIMA and Exponential Smoothing (ES), and still new methods are derived or inspired from them. After more than 50 years of widespread use, exponential smoothing is still one of the most practically relevant forecasting methods available due to their simplicity, robustness and accuracy as automatic forecasting procedures especially in the famous M-Competitions. Despite its success and widespread use in many areas, ES models have some shortcomings that negatively affect the accuracy of forecasts. Therefore, a new forecasting method in this study will be proposed to cope with these shortcomings and it will be called ATA method. This new method is obtained from traditional ES models by modifying the smoothing parameters therefore both methods have similar structural forms and ATA can be easily adapted to all of the individual ES models however ATA has many advantages due to its innovative new weighting scheme. In this paper, the focus is on modeling the trend component and handling seasonality patterns by utilizing classical decomposition. Therefore, ATA method is expanded to higher order ES methods for additive, multiplicative, additive damped and multiplicative damped trend components. The proposed models are called ATA trended models and their predictive performances are compared to their counter ES models on the M3 competition data set since it is still the most recent and comprehensive time-series data collection available. It is shown that the models outperform their counters on almost all settings and when a model selection is carried out amongst these trended models ATA outperforms all of the competitors in the M3- competition for both short term and long term forecasting horizons when the models’ forecasting accuracies are compared based on popular error metrics.

Keywords: accuracy, exponential smoothing, forecasting, initial value

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