Search results for: polynomial regression

Authors: Chaiyaporn Yuksen

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Backgroud: Supraventricular tachycardia (SVT) is an abnormally fast atrial tachycardia characterized by narrow (≤ 120 ms) and constant QRS. Adenosine was the drug of choice; the first dose was 6 mg. It can be repeated with the second and third doses of 12 mg, with greater than 90% success. The study found that patients observed at 4 hours after normal sinus rhythm was no recurrence within 24 hours. The objective of this study was to investigate the factors that influence the recurrence of SVT after adenosine in the emergency department (ED). Method: The study was conducted retrospectively exploratory model, prognostic study at the Emergency Department (ED) in Faculty of Medicine, Ramathibodi Hospital, a university-affiliated super tertiary care hospital in Bangkok, Thailand. The study was conducted for ten years period between 2010 and 2020. The inclusion criteria were age > 15 years, visiting the ED with SVT, and treating with adenosine. Those patients were recorded with the recurrence SVT in ED. The multivariable logistic regression model developed the predictive model and prediction score for recurrence PSVT. Result: 264 patients met the study criteria. Of those, 24 patients (10%) had recurrence PSVT. Five independent factors were predictive of recurrence PSVT. There was age>65 years, heart rate (after adenosine) > 100 per min, structural heart disease, and dose of adenosine. The clinical risk score to predict recurrence PSVT is developed accuracy 74.41%. The score of >6 had the likelihood ratio of recurrence PSVT by 5.71 times Conclusion: The clinical predictive score of > 6 was associated with recurrence PSVT in ED.

Keywords: clinical prediction score, SVT, recurrence, emergency department

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Authors: S. Sharma, U. Batra, S. Kapoor, A. Dua

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In this study, the effects and interactions of reaction time and capping agent assistance during sol-gel synthesis of magnesium substituted hydroxyapatite nanopowder (MgHA) on hydroxyapatite (HA) to β-tricalcium phosphate (β-TCP) ratio, Ca/P ratio and mean crystallite size was examined experimentally as well as through statistical analysis. MgHA nanopowders were synthesized by sol-gel technique at room temperature using aqueous solution of calcium nitrate tetrahydrate, magnesium nitrate hexahydrate and potassium dihydrogen phosphate as starting materials. The reaction time for sol-gel synthesis was varied between 15 to 60 minutes. Two process routes were followed with and without addition of triethanolamine (TEA) in the solutions. The elemental compositions of as-synthesized powders were determined using X-ray fluorescence (XRF) spectroscopy. The functional groups present in the as-synthesized MgHA nanopowders were established through Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FTIR). The amounts of phases present, Ca/P ratio and mean crystallite sizes of MgHA nanopowders were determined using X-ray diffraction (XRD). The HA content in biphasic mixture of HA and β-TCP and Ca/P ratio in as-synthesized MgHA nanopowders increased effectively with reaction time of sols (p < 0.0001, two way Anova), however, these were independent of TEA addition (p > 0.15, two way Anova). The MgHA nanopowders synthesized with TEA assistance exhibited 14 nm lower crystallite size (p < 0.018, 2 sample t-test) compared to the powder synthesized without TEA assistance.

Keywords: capping agent, hydroxyapatite, regression analysis, sol-gel, 2- sample t-test, two-way analysis of variance (ANOVA)

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Authors: Mayuko Matsuoka

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This presentation reports the relationships among EFL(English as a Foreign Language) students’ story comprehension in reading a story written in English and Japanese and empathic reactions. The main focus is put on their self-reflection on past study experiences, one of the empathic reactions after reading a story. One hundred fifty-five first-year university students in Japan read three SRL-themed stories written in English (their foreign language) and those written in Japanese (their mother tongue). The levels of the stories are equivalent, at CEFR(Common European Framework of Reference for Languages) B2 level. The result of categorical correlation analysis shows significant moderate correlations among three empathic reactions in a group reading English versions: having similar emotions as a protagonist, reflecting on their past study experiences, and getting lessons from a story. In addition, the result of logistic regression analysis for the data in a group reading English versions shows the chance of getting lessons from a story significantly approximately doubles if participants’ scores of a comprehension test increases by one, while it approximately triples if participants’ self-reflection occurs. These results do not appear in a group reading Japanese versions. The findings imply that self-reflection may support their comprehension of the English texts and leads to the participants’ getting lessons about SRL.

Keywords: comprehension, lesson, self-reflection, SRL

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Authors: J. Milton, C. Uzoigwe, O. Ayeko, B. Offorha, K. Anderson, R. G. Middleton

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Background: We used the UK National Hip Fracture database to determine the effect of institution hip fracture case volume on hip fracture healthcare outcomes in 2019. Using logistic regression for each healthcare outcome, we compared the best performing 50 units with the poorest performing 50 units in order to determine if the unit volume was associated with performance for each particular outcome. Method: We analysed 175 institutions treating a total of 67,673 patients over the course of a year. Results: The number of hip fractures seen per unit ranged between 86 and 952. Larger units tendered to perform health assessments more consistently and mobilise patients more expeditiously post-operatively. Patients treated at large institutions had shorter lengths of stay. With regard to most other outcomes, there was no association between unit case volume and performance, notably compliance with the Best Practice Tariff, time to surgery, proportion of eligible patients undergoing total hip arthroplasty, length of stay, delirium risk, and pressure sore risk assessments. Conclusion: There is no relationship between unit volume and the majority of health care outcomes. It would seem that larger institutions tend to perform better at parameters that are dependent upon personnel numbers. However, where the outcome is contingent, even partially, on physical infrastructure capacity, there was no difference between larger and smaller units.

Keywords: institution volume, mortality, neck of femur fractures, osteoporosis

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Authors: M. Abou-Amouna, A. Radwan, L. Al-kuwari, A. Hammuda, K. Al-Khalifa

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There is growing concern over increasing incidences of road accidents and consequent loss of human life in Qatar. In light to the future planned event in Qatar, World Cup 2022; Qatar should put into consideration the future deaths caused by road accidents, and past trends should be considered to give a reasonable picture of what may happen in the future. Qatar roads should be arranged and paved in a way that accommodate high capacity of the population in that time, since then there will be a huge number of visitors from the world. Qatar should also consider the risk issues of road accidents raised in that period, and plan to maintain high level to safety strategies. According to the increase in the number of road accidents in Qatar from 1995 until 2012, an analysis of elements affecting and causing road accidents will be effectively studied. This paper aims to identify and criticize the factors that have high effect on causing road accidents in the state of Qatar, and predict the total number of road accidents in Qatar 2022. Alternative methods are discussed and the most applicable ones according to the previous researches are selected for further studies. The methods that satisfy the existing case in Qatar were the multiple linear regression model (MLR) and artificial neutral network (ANN). Those methods are analyzed and their findings are compared. We conclude that by using MLR the number of accidents in 2022 will become 355,226 accidents, and by using ANN 216,264 accidents. We conclude that MLR gave better results than ANN because the artificial neutral network doesn’t fit data with large range varieties.

Keywords: road safety, prediction, accident, model, Qatar

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Authors: Muhammad G. Almatar, Mohammad A. Alnasrallah

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This research focuses on the study of three main issues: 1) The temporal analysis of leukemia for a period of six years (2006-2012), 2) spatial analysis by investigating this phenomenon in the Kuwaiti society spatially in the residential areas within the six governorates, 3) the use of Geographic Information System technology in investigating the hypothesis of the research and its variables using the linear regression, to show the pattern of linear relationship. The study depends on utilizing the map to understand the distribution of blood cancer in Kuwait. Several geodatabases were created for the number of patients and air pollution. Spatial interpolation models were used to generate layers of air pollution in the study area. These geodatabases were tested over the past six years to reach the conclusion: Is there a relationship with significant significance between the two main variables of the study: blood cancer and air pollution? This study is the first to our best knowledge. As far as the researchers know, the distribution of this disease has not been studied geographically at the level of regions in Kuwait within six years and in specific areas as described above. This study investigates the concentration of this type of disease. The study found that there is no relationship of significant value between the two variables studied, and this may be due to the nature of the disease, which are often hereditary. On the other hand, this study has reached a number of suggestions and recommendations that may be useful to decision-makers and interested in the study of leukemia in Kuwait by focusing on the study of genetic diseases, which may be a cause of leukemia rather than air pollution.

Keywords: Kuwait, GIS, cancer, geography

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Authors: Harinder Singh

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The paper sheds light on the perceptions of the uninsured workers employed in the urban informal sector of India, towards the health insurance. In addition to this, it also explores the association of the identified perceptions with household decisions to enroll for health insurance schemes in India. Firstly the data taken from the primary survey of the uninsured workers employed in the urban informal sector was analyzed using exploratory factor analysis to evaluate the perceptions. Thereafter, logistic regression was employed to determine the association of the identified perceptions regarding the enrollment. Our study identifies twelve perceptions related to the health insurance enrollment of the uninsured workers employed in the urban informal sector of India. The study demonstrates that perceptions have the strongest association with the voluntary enrollment. These specifically relate to the lack of awareness about the need to buy health insurance; comprehensive coverage; income constraint; future contingencies and social obligations; lack of information; availability of subsidized government health care; linkage with government hospitals and preference for government schemes. Conclusions: Along with the food security, health security has become a crying need of the workers employed in the informal sector and the time has come to scale up the health insurance schemes for them in the country. Policy makers or marketers of health insurance policies should recognize the household perceptions as a potential barrier and try to develop a health insurance package as per the actual needs of the informal sector (low income) in India.

Keywords: association, enrollment, health insurance, informal sector, perceptions, uninsured

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Authors: A. M. Omoare, E. O. Fakoya

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This study sought to determine the use of indigenous knowledge for selected arable crops production in Ondo Sate. A multistage sampling method was used and 112 arable crops farmers were systematically selected. Data were analyzed using both descriptive and inferential statistics. The results showed that majority of the sampled farmers were male (75.90%). About 75% were married with children. Large proportion of them (62.61%) were within the ages of 30-49 years. Most of them have spent about 10 years in farming (58.92%). The highest raw scores of use of indigenous knowledge were found in planting on mound in yam production, use of native medicine and scare crow method in controlling birds in rice production, timely planting of locally developed resistant varieties in cassava production and soaking of maize seeds in water to determine their viability with raw scores of 313, 310, 305, 303, and 300 respectively, while the lowest raw scores was obtained in use of bell method in controlling birds in rice production with raw scores of 210. The findings established that proverbs (59.8%) and taboos (55.36%) were the most commonly used media in transmitting indigenous knowledge by arable crop farmers. The multiple regression analysis result revealed that age of the farmers and farming experience had a significant relationship with the use of indigenous knowledge of the farmers which gave R2 = 0.83 for semi log function form of equation which is the land equation. The policy implication is that indigenous knowledge should provide basis for designing modern technologies to enhance sustainable agricultural development.

Keywords: crop production, extent of use, indigenous knowledge, arable crops

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Authors: Adam Chlapecka, Anna Kagstrom, Pavla Cermakova

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Background: Increasing educational attainment (EA) could decrease the occurrence of depression. We investigated the relationship between EA and depressive symptoms in older individuals across four European regions. Methods: We studied 108 315 Europeans (54 % women, median age 63 years old) from the Survey on Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe assessing EA (7 educational levels based on ISCED classification); and depressive symptoms (≥ 4 points on EURO-D scale). Logistic regression estimated the association between EA and depressive symptoms, adjusting for sociodemographic and health-related factors; testing for sex/age/region and education interactions. Results: Higher EA was associated with lower odds of depressive symptoms, independent of sociodemographic and health-related factors. A threshold of the lowest odds of depressive symptoms was detected at the first stage of tertiary education (OR 0.60; 95% CI 0.55-0.65; p<0.001; relative to no education). Central and Eastern Europe showed the strongest association (OR for high vs. low education 0.37; 95% CI 0.33-0.40; p<0.001) and Scandinavia the weakest (OR for high vs. low education 0.69; 95% CI 0.60-0.80; p<0.001). The association was strongest amongst younger individuals. There was a sex and education interaction only within Central and Eastern Europe. Conclusion: The level of EA is reflected in later-life depressive symptoms, suggesting that supporting individuals in achieving EA, and considering those with lower EA at increased risk for depression, could lead to the decreased burden of depression across the life course. Further educational support in Central and Eastern Europe may decrease the higher burden of depressive symptoms in women.

Keywords: depression, education, epidemiology, Europe

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Authors: Mirjana Dragas, Marli Gonan Bozac, Morena Paulisic

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Corporate social responsibility (CSR) is a balance between strategic and financial goals of companies, as well as social needs. The integration of competitive strategy and CSR in food and beverage industry has allowed companies to find new sources of competitive advantage. The paper discusses the fact that socially responsible companies encourage co-operation with socially responsible suppliers in order to strengthen market competitiveness. In addition to the descriptive interpretation of the results obtained by a questionnaire, factor analysis was used, while principal components analysis was applied as a factor extraction method. The research results based on two multiple regression analyses show that: (1) selecting the CSR supplier explains a statistically significant part of the variance of the results on the scale of financial aspects of competitiveness (as much as 44.7% of the explained variance); and (2) selecting the CSR supplier is a significant predictor of non-financial aspects of competitiveness (explains 43.9% of the variance of the results on the scale of non-financial aspects of competitiveness). A successful competitive strategy must ultimately support the growth strategy. This implies an analytical approach to finding factors that influence competitiveness through socially sustainable solutions and satisfactory top management decisions.

Keywords: competitiveness, corporate social responsibility, food and beverage industry, supply chain decision making

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Authors: Zeliha Sayar

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Central banks all over the world appear to be focusing first and foremost on retail central bank digital currency CBDC), i.e., digital cash/money. This approach is predicated on the belief that the use of cash has decreased, owing primarily to technological advancements and pandemic restrictions, and that a suitable foundation for the transition to a cashless society has been revealed. This study aims to contribute to the debate over whether digital money/CBDC can be a substitute or supplement to physical cash by examining the potential effects on cash demand. For this reason, this paper compares two emerging countries, Turkey, and Thailand, to demystify the impact of e-payment and COVID-19 restrictions on cash demand by employing fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS), dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS), and the canonical cointegrating regression (CCR). The currency in circulation in two emerging countries, Turkey and Thailand, was examined in order to estimate the elasticity of different types of retail payments. The results demonstrate that real internet and mobile, cart, contactless payment, and e-money are long-term determinants of real cash demand in these two developing countries. Furthermore, with the exception of contactless payments in Turkey, there is a positive relationship between the currency in circulation and the various types of retail payments. According to findings, COVID-19 restrictions encourage the demand for cash, resulting in cash hoarding.

Keywords: CCR, DOLS, e-money, FMOLS, real cash

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Authors: Dongjoo Chin

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The purpose of this study was to investigate the effectiveness of an Early Intensive Behavioral Intervention (EIBI) program on infants with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and to explore the factors predicting the effectiveness of the program, focusing on the infant's age, language ability, problem behaviors, and parental stress. 19 pairs of infants aged between 2 and 5 years who have had been diagnosed with ASD, and their parents participated in an EIBI program at a clinic providing evidence-based treatment based on applied behavior analysis. The measurement tools which were administered before and after the EIBI program and compared, included PEP-R, a curriculum evaluation, K-SIB-R, K-Vineland-II, K-CBCL, and PedsQL for the infants, and included PSI-SF and BDI-II for the parents. Statistical analysis was performed using a sample t-test and multiple regression analysis and the results were as follows. The EIBI program showed significant improvements in overall developmental age, curriculum assessment, and quality of life for infants. There was no difference in parenting stress or depression. Furthermore, measures for both children and parents at the start of the program predicted neither PEP-R nor the degree of improvement in curriculum evaluation measured six months later at the end of the program. Based on these results, the authors suggest future directions for developing an effective intensive early intervention (EIBI) program for infants with ASD in Korea, and discuss the implications and limitations of this study.

Keywords: applied behavior analysis, autism spectrum disorder, early intensive behavioral intervention, parental stress

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Authors: Livy Febria Tedjamulia, Aas Nurasyiah, Ivana Josephin Purnama, Monika Diah Maharani Kusumastuti, Achmad Ridwan Ariyantoro

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Papua's candy is one of Indonesia’s indigenous consumption consisting of areca nut (Areca catechu), forest betel fruit (Piper aduncum), and CaCO3. This research aims to determine the concentration of tannins in areca nut, alkaloids in areca nut, flavonoids in forest betel fruit; detect their interaction and CaCO3; also toform a standardize consumption recommendation. The research methodwas includingDPPH assay for papua’s candy mixture, which resulted in IC50 value. Data analysis used is mathematical linear regression for each experiment. The test result of alkaloid is a Rf value of 0.773, while concentration of tannin and flavonoidare 0.603 mgGAE/g and 125.402 gQE/g, respectively. The IC50 value shows number of 3.0403, showing high antioxidant capacity.Other antioxidant assays were being studied using literature review, namely trolox and oxygen radical absorbance capacity, to figure out interaction among the bioactive compounds. It turned out that the interaction detected is antagonistic, which means the compound that is joined already has a stable molecular structure so that could reduce free radicals by donating hydrogen atoms. The recommendation consumptions given are 4 areca nuts, 5 forest betels, and 1 gram of lime betel. Therefore, papua's candy has its potential to be developed into functional food.

Keywords: antioxidant, bioactive compounds interaction, free radical, papua’s candy

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Authors: Bidyadhar Dehury, Sanjay Kumar Mohanty

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According to the Right to Education Act of India, education is the fundamental right of all children of age group 6-14 year irrespective of their status. Using the unit level data from India Human Development Survey (IHDS), we tried to understand the inter-relationship between the level of poverty and the academic performance of the children aged 8-11 years. The level of multidimensional poverty is measured using five dimensions and 10 indicators using Alkire-Foster approach. The weighted deprivation score was obtained by giving equal weight to each dimension and indicators within the dimension. The weighted deprivation score varies from 0 to 1 and grouped into four categories as non-poor, vulnerable, multidimensional poor and sever multidimensional poor. The academic performance index was measured using three variables reading skills, math skills and writing skills using PCA. The bivariate and multivariate analysis was used in the analysis. The outcome variable was ordinal. So the predicted probabilities were calculated using the ordinal logistic regression. The predicted probabilities of good academic performance index was 0.202 if the child was sever multidimensional poor, 0.235 if the child was multidimensional poor, 0.264 if the child was vulnerable, and 0.316 if the child was non-poor. Hence, if the level of poverty among the children decreases from sever multidimensional poor to non-poor, the probability of good academic performance increases.

Keywords: multidimensional poverty, academic performance index, reading skills, math skills, writing skills, India

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Authors: Revoti Prasad Bora, Nikita Katyal

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Promotion is a key element in the retail business. Thus, analysis of promotions to quantify their effectiveness in terms of Revenue and/or Margin is an essential activity in the retail industry. However, measuring the sales/revenue uplift is based on estimations, as the actual sales/revenue without the promotion is not present. Further, the presence of Halo and Cannibalization in a multiple parallel promotions’ scenario complicates the problem. Calculating Baseline by considering inter-brand/competitor items or using Halo and Cannibalization's impact on Revenue calculations by considering Baseline as an interpretation of items’ unit sales in neighboring nonpromotional weeks individually may not capture the overall Revenue uplift in the case of multiple parallel promotions. Hence, this paper proposes a Machine Learning based method for calculating the Revenue uplift by considering the Halo and Cannibalization impact on the Baseline and the Revenue. In the first section of the proposed methodology, Baseline of an item is calculated by incorporating the impact of the promotions on its related items. In the later section, the Revenue of an item is calculated by considering both Halo and Cannibalization impacts. Hence, this methodology enables correct calculation of the overall Revenue uplift due a given promotion.

Keywords: Halo, Cannibalization, promotion, Baseline, temporary price reduction, retail, elasticity, cross price elasticity, machine learning, random forest, linear regression

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Authors: Mohd Aftar Abu Bakar, Noratiqah Mohd Ariff, Abdul Aziz Jemain

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Storm Event Analysis (SEA) provides a method to define rainfalls events as storms where each storm has its own amount and duration. By modelling daily probability of different types of storms, the onset, offset and cycle of rainfall seasons can be determined and investigated. Furthermore, researchers from the field of meteorology will be able to study the dynamical characteristics of rainfalls and make predictions for future reference. In this study, four categories of storms; short, intermediate, long and very long storms; are introduced based on the length of storm duration. Daily probability models of storms are built for these four categories of storms in Peninsular Malaysia. The models are constructed by using Bernoulli distribution and by applying linear regression on the first Fourier harmonic equation. From the models obtained, it is found that daily probability of storms at the Eastern part of Peninsular Malaysia shows a unimodal pattern with high probability of rain beginning at the end of the year and lasting until early the next year. This is very likely due to the Northeast monsoon season which occurs from November to March every year. Meanwhile, short and intermediate storms at other regions of Peninsular Malaysia experience a bimodal cycle due to the two inter-monsoon seasons. Overall, these models indicate that Peninsular Malaysia can be divided into four distinct regions based on the daily pattern for the probability of various storm events.

Keywords: daily probability model, monsoon seasons, regions, storm events

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Authors: Umair Nadeem, Sidra Umair

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Political behavior of voters and democratic values have been observed an emerging phenomenon in recent years in Pakistan. Privatized TV news channels are taking one sided position on the political issues, corresponding with respective political parties. Since last decade, TV News Channels have undermined this monopoly. Elections 2013 were unique in Pakistan with reference to political behavior and democratic values. Partisan narratives and counter narratives have been witnessed on different TV channels, in last few years. These mediated events seem very important to study the political behavior and democratic values as the country is approaching towards elections 2018. This endeavor is an attempt to capture the framing of the parties, issues in the partisan media culture and framing effects on political behavior of voters. Data for this research come from two data set. Content analysis of selected representative talks shows broadcast on mainstream news channels provide an assessment of the framing while quantitative survey of the discussion program’s viewers from Lahore city provide an evidence of framing effects on political behavior on voters and on democratic values. Regression results help us to argue that the highly partisan shows are strong predictors of polarized views among the audience. Study also grasp the attention of scholars towards the implications of this phenomenon.

Keywords: democratic values, partisan media, polarized views, political behavior

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Authors: Tijjani Bashir Musa

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The recent global crisis which suddenly results to Nigerian stock market crash revealed some peculiarities of Nigerian firms. Some firms in Nigeria are performing but their stock prices are not increasing while some firms are at the brink of collapse but their stock prices are increasing. Thus, this study examines the relationship between firm performance and stock price in Nigeria. The study covered the period of 2005 to 2009. This period is the period of stock boom and also marked the period of stock market crash as a result of global financial meltdown. The study is a panel study. A total of 140 firms were sampled from 216 firms listed on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE). Data were collected from secondary source. These data were divided into four strata comprising the most performing stock, the least performing stock, most performing firms and the least performing firms. Each stratum contains 35 firms with characteristic of most performing stock, most performing firms, least performing stock and least performing firms. Multiple linear regression models were used to analyse the data while statistical/econometrics package of Stata 11.0 version was used to run the data. The study found that, relationship exists between selected firm performance parameters (operating efficiency, firm profit, earning per share and working capital) and stock price. As such firm performance gave sufficient information or has predictive power on stock prices movements in Nigeria for all the years under study.. The study recommends among others that Managers of firms in Nigeria should formulate policies and exert effort geared towards improving firm performance that will enhance stock prices movements.

Keywords: firm, Nigeria, performance, stock price

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Authors: Tania Bose, Minto Rattan, Neeraj Chamoli

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In this paper, an attempt has been made to study the effect of thermal gradation on the steady-state creep behavior of rotating isotropic disc made of functionally graded material using threshold stress based Sherby’s creep law. The composite discs made of aluminum matrix reinforced with silicon carbide particulate have been taken for analysis. The stress and strain rate distributions have been calculated for the discs rotating at elevated temperatures having thermal gradation. The material parameters of creep vary radially and have been estimated by regression fit of the available experimental data. Investigations for discs made up of linearly increasing particle content operating under linearly decreasing temperature from inner to outer radii have been done using von Mises’ yield criterion. The results are displayed and compared graphically in designer friendly format for the above said disc profile with the disc made of particle reinforced composite operating under uniform temperature profile. It is observed that radial and tangential stresses show minor variation and the strain rates vary significantly in the presence of thermal gradation as compared to disc having uniform temperature.

Keywords: creep, isotropic, steady-state, thermal gradation

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Authors: Pamir Gogoi, Ratree Wayland

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This study investigates the acoustic measures of breathiness when coarticulated with nasality. The acoustic correlates of breathiness and nasality that has already been well established after years of empirical research. Some of these acoustic parameters - like low frequency peaks and wider bandwidths- are common for both nasal and breathy voice. Therefore, it is likely that these parameters interact when a sound is coarticulated with breathiness and nasality. This leads to the hypothesis that the acoustic parameters, which usually act as robust cues in differentiating between breathy and modal voice, might not be reliable cues for differentiating between breathy and modal voice when breathiness is coarticulated with nasality. The effect of nasality on the perception of breathiness has been explored in earlier studies using synthesized speech. The results showed that perceptually, nasality and breathiness do interact. The current study investigates if a similar pattern is observed in natural speech. The study is conducted on Marathi, an Indo-Aryan language which has a three-way contrast between nasality and breathiness. That is, there is a phonemic distinction between nasals, breathy voice and breathy-nasals. Voice quality parameters like – H1-H2 (Difference between the amplitude of first and second harmonic), H1-A3 (Difference between the amplitude of first harmonic and third formant, CPP (Cepstral Peak Prominence), HNR (Harmonics to Noise ratio) and B1 (Bandwidth of first formant) were extracted. Statistical models like linear mixed effects regression and Random Forest classifiers show that measures that capture the noise component in the signal- like CPP and HNR- can classify breathy voice from modal voice better than spectral measures when breathy voice is coarticulated with nasality.

Keywords: breathiness, marathi, nasality, voice quality

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Authors: Arun Kumar Singh, Rupesh M. Das, Shailendra Saini

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The effect of solar cycle and seasons on the total electron content has been investigated over high latitude region during 24th solar cycle (2010-2014). The total electron content data has been observed with the help of Global Ionospheric Scintillation and TEC monitoring (GISTM) system installed at Indian permanent scientific 'Maitri station' [70˚46’00”S 11˚43’56” E]. The dependence of TEC over a solar cycle has been examined by the performing linear regression analysis between the vertical total electron content (VTEC) and daily total sunspot numbers (SSN). It has been found that the season and level of geomagnetic activity has a considerable effect on the VTEC. It is observed that the VTEC and SSN follow better agreement during summer seasons as compared to winter and equinox seasons and extraordinary agreement during minimum phase (during the year 2010) of the solar cycle. There is a significant correlation between VTEC and SSN during quiet days of the years as compared to overall days of the years (2010-2014). Further, saturation effect has been observed during maximum phase (during the year 2014) of the 24th solar cycle. It is also found that Ap index and SSN has a linear correlation (R=0.37) and the most of the geomagnetic activity occurs during the declining phase of the solar cycle.

Keywords: high latitude ionosphere, sunspot number, correlation, vertical total electron content

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Authors: Nahla H. Alaswadko, Rayya A. Hassan, Bayar N. Mohammed

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Empirical deterministic models have been developed to predict roughness progression of heavy duty spray sealed pavements for a dataset representing rural arterial roads. The dataset provides a good representation of the relevant network and covers a wide range of operating and environmental conditions. A sample with a large size of historical time series data for many pavement sections has been collected and prepared for use in multilevel regression analysis. The modelling parameters include road roughness as performance parameter and traffic loading, time, initial pavement strength, reactivity level of subgrade soil, climate condition, and condition of drainage system as predictor parameters. The purpose of this paper is to report the approaches adopted for models development and validation. The study presents multilevel models that can account for the correlation among time series data of the same section and to capture the effect of unobserved variables. Study results show that the models fit the data very well. The contribution and significance of relevant influencing factors in predicting roughness progression are presented and explained. The paper concludes that the analysis approach used for developing the models confirmed their accuracy and reliability by well-fitting to the validation data.

Keywords: roughness progression, empirical model, pavement performance, heavy duty pavement

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Authors: Raymond Xu, Cindy Jingru Wang

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Social media has become a globally connected and influencing platform. Social media data, such as tweets, can help predict the spread of pandemics and provide individuals and healthcare providers early warnings. Public psychological reactions and opinions can be efficiently monitored by AI models on the progression of dominant topics on Twitter. However, statistics show that as the coronavirus spreads, so does an infodemic of misinformation due to pandemic-related factors such as unemployment and lockdowns. Social media algorithms are often biased toward outrage by promoting content that people have an emotional reaction to and are likely to engage with. This can influence users’ attitudes and cause confusion. Therefore, social media is a double-edged sword. Combating fake news and biased content has become one of the essential tasks. This research analyzes the variety of methods used for fake news detection covering random forest, logistic regression, support vector machines, decision tree, naive Bayes, BoW, TF-IDF, LDA, CNN, RNN, LSTM, DeepFake, and hierarchical attention network. The performance of each method is analyzed. Based on these models’ achievements and limitations, a multi-dimensional AI framework is proposed to achieve higher accuracy in infodemic detection, especially pandemic-related news. The model is trained on contextual content, images, and news metadata.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, fake news detection, infodemic detection, image recognition, sentiment analysis

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Authors: Weiju Zhou, Alex Hopkins, Ruoling Chen

Abstract:

Background: China has increased the gap in income between richer and poorer over the past 40 years, and the number of deaths from people with angina has been rising. It is unclear whether socioeconomic status (SES) is associated with increased mortality in older people with angina. Methods: Data from a cohort study of 2,380 participants aged ≥ 65 years, who were randomly recruited from 5-province urban communities were examined in China. The cohort members were interviewed to record socio-demographic and risk factors and document doctor-diagnosed angina at baseline and were followed them up in 3-10 years, including monitoring vital status. Multivariate Cox regression models were employed to examine all-cause mortality in relation to low SES. Results: The cohort follow-up identified 373 deaths occurred; 41 deaths in 208 angina patients. Compared to participants without angina (n=2,172), patients with angina had increased mortality (multivariate adjusted hazard ratio (HR) was 1.41, 95% CI 1.01-1.97). Within angina patients, the risk of mortality increased with low satisfactory income (2.51, 1.08-5.85) and having financial problem (4.00, 1.07-15.00), but significantly with levels of education and occupation. In non-angina participants, none of these four SES indicators were associated with mortality. There was a significant interaction effect between angina and low satisfactory income on mortality. Conclusions: In China, having low income and financial problem increase mortality in older people with angina. Strategies to improve economic circumstances in older people could help reduce inequality in angina survival.

Keywords: angina, mortality, older people, socio-economic status

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Authors: M. Etezadi, A. Fahimifar

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In many geotechnical designs in rocks and rock masses, tensile strength of rock and rock mass is needed. The difficulties associated with performing a direct uniaxial tensile test on a rock specimen have led to a number of indirect methods for assessing the tensile strength that in the meantime the Brazilian test is more popular. Brazilian test is widely applied in rock engineering because specimens are easy to prepare, the test is easy to conduct and uniaxial compression test machines are quite common. This study compares experimental results of direct and Brazilian tensile tests carried out on two rock types and three concrete types using 39 cylindrical and 28 disc specimens. The tests are performed using Servo-Control device. The relationship between direct and indirect tensile strength of specimens is extracted using linear regression. In the following, tensile strength of direct and indirect test is evaluated using finite element analysis. The results are analyzed and effective factors on results are studied. According to the experimental results Brazilian test is shown higher tensile strength than direct test. Because of decreasing the contact surface of grains and increasing the uniformity in concrete specimens with fine aggregate (largest grain size= 6mm), higher tensile strength in direct test is shown. The experimental and numerical results of tensile strength are compared and empirical relationship witch is obtained from experimental tests is validated.

Keywords: tensile strength, brittle materials, direct and indirect tensile test, numerical modeling

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Authors: Assaad Ghazouani, Hedia Teraoui

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The purpose of this article is to try to see if the FDI actually contributes to technology transfer in Tunisia or are there other sources that can guarantee this transfer? The answer to this problem was gradual as we followed an approach using economic theory, the reality of Tunisia and econometric and statistical tools. We examined the relationship between technology transfer and FDI in Tunisia over a period of 40 years from 1970 to 2010. We estimated in two stages: first, a growth equation, then we have learned from this regression residue (proxy technology), secondly, we regressed on European FDI, exports of manufactures, imports of goods from the European Union in addition to other variables to test the robustness of the results and describing the level of infrastructure in the country. It follows from our study that technology transfer does not originate primarily and exclusively in the FDI and the latter is econometrically weakly with technology transfer and spill over effect of FDI does not seem to occur according to our results. However, the relationship between technology transfer and imports is negative and significant. Although this result is cons-intuitive, is recurrent in the literature of panel data. It has also given rise to intense debate on the microeconomic modelling as well as on the empirical applications. Technology transfer through trade or foreign investment has become a catalyst for growth recognized by numerous empirical studies in particular. However, the relationship technology transfer FDI is more complex than it appears. This complexity is due, primarily, but not exclusively to the close link between FDI and the characteristics of the host country. This is essentially the host's responsibility to establish general conditions, transparent and conducive to investment, and to strengthen human and institutional capacity necessary for foreign capital flows that can have real effects on growth.

Keywords: technology transfer, foreign direct investment, economics, finance

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Authors: Daisy Saikia

Abstract:

Long-term maternal health issues with Caesarean section deliveries are significant. Thus, this study aims to investigate the prevalence of caesarean section deliveries in India and to comprehend its associated predictors in light of the high caesarean section delivery rate. The study uses data from the fifth National Family Health Surveys (NFHS-5) round. Specifically, live births to women aged 15-49 in the 5 years preceding the survey. Binary logistic regression was used to check the adjusted effects of the predictor variables on caesarean section delivery. STATA/SE v16.0 was used for the data analysis with a 5% significance level. Twenty-two per cent of the live births to women were delivered by caesarean section. There was socio-economic, demographic and geographical variation in the prevalence of caesarean section delivery in India. Increasing age, body mass index, marital status, mother’s occupation and education, birth order, place of delivery, full ANC, non-tribal status, wealth quintile and region are significantly associated with caesarean section deliveries in India. Caesarean section deliveries should only be performed when essential from a medical perspective, and regions, where the rate is too high, should follow the guidelines. Additionally, it needs to be investigated whether private hospitals compel patients to have caesarean section deliveries to increase their revenue. Thus, these unnecessary deliveries must be examined immediately for safe childbirth and the wellness of both mother and child.

Keywords: caesarean section, delivery, maternal health, India

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Authors: Esmail Sadipour

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The use of social networks is increasing day by day in all societies. The purpose of this research was to know the relationship between the use of social networks (Instagram, WhatsApp, and Telegram) with executive functions and academic performance in first-year female high school students. This research was applied in terms of purpose, quantitative in terms of data type, and correlational in terms of technique. The population of this research consisted of all female high school students in the first year of district 2 of Tehran. Using Green's formula, the sample size of 150 people was determined and selected by cluster random method. In this way, from all 17 high schools in district 2 of Tehran, 5 high schools were selected by a simple random method and then one class was selected from each high school, and a total of 155 students were selected. To measure the use of social networks, a researcher-made questionnaire was used, the Barclay test (2012) was used for executive functions, and last semester's GPA was used for academic performance. Pearson's correlation coefficient and multivariate regression were used to analyze the data. The results showed that there is a negative relationship between the amount of use of social networks and self-control, self-motivation and time self-management. In other words, the more the use of social networks, the fewer executive functions of students, self-control, self-motivation, and self-management of their time. Also, with the increase in the use of social networks, the academic performance of students has decreased.

Keywords: social networks, executive function, academic performance, working memory

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Authors: Stephen Pembi, Samuel K. Msheliza, Helen A. Andow

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Organizational culture is very important in the organization because it enhances organizational performance and serves as a sense of making and control mechanism that guides and shapes the attitude and behaviour of employees. However, organizational culture issues are frequently disregarded in lieu of activities that may or may not have a good impact on performance. This study examines the relationship between organizational culture and organizational performance of Adama Beverages Ltd, Adamawa State. The study employed an explanatory survey research design with a questionnaire as a source of data collection. One hundred and thirty-five copies of the questionnaire were administered using the convenience method of sampling, out of which one hundred and twenty were retrieved and well answered. The data collected were subjected to the Pearson product-moment correlation technique to test the hypotheses of the study using SPSS. The overall results signify that organizational culture has a significant positive relationship with organizational performance. The multiple regression results show that mission, adaptability, and involvement have a significant positive influence on organizational performance, while consistency has a significant negative influence on organizational performance. Therefore, this study concluded that organizational culture is a strong determinant of organizational performance in Adama Beverages Ltd, Adamawa State. The study recommends that the level of employee input into decision-making, flexibility in responding to changes in the business environment, consistency with values and traditions, and organizational performance should all be maintained by Adama Beverages Ltd.

Keywords: adaptability, consistency, involvement, mission, organizational performance

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Authors: Bingchun Liu, Pei-Chann Chang, Natasha Huang, Dun Li

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Machine Learning and Data Mining are the two important tools for extracting useful information and knowledge from large datasets. In machine learning, classification is a wildly used technique to predict qualitative variables and is generally preferred over regression from an operational point of view. Due to the enormous increase in air pollution in various countries especially China, Air Quality Classification has become one of the most important topics in air quality research and modelling. This study aims at introducing a hybrid classification model based on information theory and Support Vector Machine (SVM) using the air quality data of four cities in China namely Beijing, Guangzhou, Shanghai and Tianjin from Jan 1, 2014 to April 30, 2016. China's Ministry of Environmental Protection has classified the daily air quality into 6 levels namely Serious Pollution, Severe Pollution, Moderate Pollution, Light Pollution, Good and Excellent based on their respective Air Quality Index (AQI) values. Using the information theory, information gain (IG) is calculated and feature selection is done for both categorical features and continuous numeric features. Then SVM Machine Learning algorithm is implemented on the selected features with cross-validation. The final evaluation reveals that the IG and SVM hybrid model performs better than SVM (alone), Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and K-Nearest Neighbours (KNN) models in terms of accuracy as well as complexity.

Keywords: machine learning, air quality classification, air quality index, information gain, support vector machine, cross-validation

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