Search results for: inclusion probability

Authors: Cesar Vazquez-Gonzalez, Sophie Avila-Foucat, Leonardo Ortiz-Lozano, Patricia Moreno-Casasola, Alejandro Granados-Barba

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In the last twenty years, academic and scientific literature has been focused on understanding the processes and factors of coastal social-ecological systems vulnerability and resilience. Some scholars argue that resilience and vulnerability are isolated concepts due to their epistemological origin, while others note the existence of a strong resilience-vulnerability relationship. Here we present an ordinal logistic regression model based on the analytical framework about dynamic resilience-vulnerability interaction along adaptive cycle of complex systems and disasters process phases (during, recovery and learning). In this way, we demonstrate that 1) during the disturbance, absorptive capacity (resilience as a core of attributes) and external response capacity explain the probability of households capitals to diminish the damage, and exposure sets the thresholds about the amount of disturbance that households can absorb, 2) at recovery, absorptive capacity and external response capacity explain the probability of households capitals to recovery faster (resilience as an outcome) from damage, and 3) at learning, adaptive capacity (resilience as a core of attributes) explains the probability of households adaptation measures based on the enhancement of physical capital. As a result, during the disturbance phase, exposure has the greatest weight in the probability of capital’s damage, and households with absorptive and external response capacity elements absorbed the impact of floods in comparison with households without these elements. At the recovery phase, households with absorptive and external response capacity showed a faster recovery on their capital; however, the damage sets the thresholds of recovery time. More importantly, diversity in financial capital increases the probability of recovering other capital, but it becomes a liability so that the probability of recovering the household finances in a longer time increases. At learning-reorganizing phase, adaptation (modifications to the house) increases the probability of having less damage on physical capital; however, it is not very relevant. As conclusion, resilience is an outcome but also core of attributes that interacts with vulnerability along the adaptive cycle and disaster process phases. Absorptive capacity can diminish the damage experienced by floods; however, when exposure overcomes thresholds, both absorptive and external response capacity are not enough. In the same way, absorptive and external response capacity diminish the recovery time of capital, but the damage sets the thresholds in where households are not capable of recovering their capital.

Keywords: absorptive capacity, adaptive capacity, capital, floods, recovery-learning, social-ecological systems

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Authors: Chun-Qing Li, Guoyang Fu, Wei Yang

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A significant portion of current water networks is made of cast iron pipes. Due to aging and deterioration with corrosion being the most predominant mechanism, the failure rate of cast iron pipes is very high. Although considerable research has been carried out in the past few decades, most are on the effect of corrosion on the structural capacity of pipes using strength theory as the failure criterion. This paper presents a reliability-based methodology for the assessment of corrosion affected cast iron pipe cracking failures. A nonlinear limit state function taking into account all three fracture modes is proposed for brittle metal pipes with mixed mode fracture. A stochastic model of the load effect is developed, and time-dependent reliability method is employed to quantify the probability of failure and predict the remaining service life. A case study is carried out using the proposed methodology, followed by sensitivity analysis to investigate the effects of the random variables on the probability of failure. It has been found that the larger the inclination angle or the Mode I fracture toughness is, the smaller the probability of pipe failure is. It has also been found that the multiplying and exponential coefficients k and n in the power law corrosion model and the internal pressure have the most influence on the probability of failure for cast iron pipes. The methodology presented in this paper can assist pipe engineers and asset managers in developing a risk-informed and cost-effective strategy for better management of corrosion-affected pipelines.

Keywords: corrosion, inclined surface cracks, pressurized cast iron pipes, stress intensity

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Authors: Benmansour Nassima, Benmansour Souheyla

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The appropriate integration of reward processing and decision making provided by the environment is vital for behavioural success and individuals’ well being in everyday life. Functional neurological investigation has already provided an inclusive image on affective and emotional (motivational) processing in the healthy human brain and has recently focused its interest also on the assessment of brain function in anxious and depressed individuals. This article offers an overview on the theoretical approaches that relate emotion and decision-making, and spotlights investigation with anxious or depressed individuals to reveal how emotions can interfere with decision-making. This research aims at incorporating the emotional structure based on response and stimulation with a Bayesian approach to decision-making in terms of probability and value processing. It seeks to show how studies of individuals with emotional dysfunctions bear out that alterations of decision-making can be considered in terms of altered probability and value subtraction. The utmost objective is to critically determine if the probabilistic representation of belief affords could be a critical approach to scrutinize alterations in probability and value representation in subjective with anxiety and depression, and draw round the general implications of this approach.

Keywords: decision-making, motivation, alteration, reward processing, response selection

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Authors: Garry A. Einicke, Langford B. White

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This paper describes an optimum filter and smoother for recovering a Markov process message from noisy measurements. The developments follow from an equivalence between a state space model and a hidden Markov chain. The ensuing filter and smoother employ transition probability matrices and approximate probability distribution vectors. The properties of the optimum solutions are retained, namely, the estimates are unbiased and minimize the variance of the output estimation error, provided that the assumed parameter set are correct. Methods for estimating unknown parameters from noisy measurements are discussed. Signal recovery examples are described in which performance benefits are demonstrated at an increased calculation cost.

Keywords: optimal filtering, smoothing, Markov chains

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Authors: V. S. S. Kumar, V. Ramya

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In the modern electronic warfare, the signal scenario is changing at a rapid pace with the introduction of Low Probability of Intercept (LPI) radars. In the modern battlefield, radar system faces serious threats from passive intercept receivers such as Electronic Attack (EA) and Anti-Radiation Missiles (ARMs). To perform necessary target detection and tracking and simultaneously hide themselves from enemy attack, radar systems should be LPI. These LPI radars use a variety of complex signal modulation schemes together with pulse compression with the aid of advancement in signal processing capabilities of the radar such that the radar performs target detection and tracking while simultaneously hiding enemy from attack such as EA etc., thus posing a major challenge to the ES/ELINT receivers. Today an increasing number of LPI radars are being introduced into the modern platforms and weapon systems so these LPI radars created a requirement for the armed forces to develop new techniques, strategies and equipment to counter them. This paper presents various modulation techniques used in generation of LPI signals and development of Time Frequency Algorithms to analyse those signals.

Keywords: anti-radiation missiles, cross terms, electronic attack, electronic intelligence, electronic warfare, intercept receiver, low probability of intercept

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Authors: A. Bayaga

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This research provides a technical account of estimating Transition Probability using Time-homogeneous Markov Jump Process applying by South African HIV/AIDS data from the Statistics South Africa. It employs Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) model to explore the possible influence of Transition Probability of mortality cases in which case the data was based on actual Statistics South Africa. This was conducted via an integrated demographic and epidemiological model of South African HIV/AIDS epidemic. The model was fitted to age-specific HIV prevalence data and recorded death data using MLE model. Though the previous model results suggest HIV in South Africa has declined and AIDS mortality rates have declined since 2002 – 2013, in contrast, our results differ evidently with the generally accepted HIV models (Spectrum/EPP and ASSA2008) in South Africa. However, there is the need for supplementary research to be conducted to enhance the demographic parameters in the model and as well apply it to each of the nine (9) provinces of South Africa.

Keywords: AIDS mortality rates, epidemiological model, time-homogeneous markov jump process, transition probability, statistics South Africa

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Authors: Adrizal, Irsan Ryanto, Sri Juwita, Adika Sugara, Tino Bapirco

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The objective of the research was to study the influence of the inclusion of the cabbage waste into a buffalo rations made of sugarcane waste on the feed formula and characteristic of complete feed silage. Research carried out a two-stage i.e. the feed formulation and experiment of making complete feed silage. Feed formulation is done by linear programming. Data input is the price of feed stuffs and their nutrient contents as well as requirements for rations, while the output is the use of each feed stuff and the price of complete feed. The experiment of complete feed silage was done by a completely random design 4 x 4. The treatments were 4 inclusion levels of the cabbage waste i.e. 0%,(T1) 5%(T2), 10%(T3) and 15% (T4), with 4 replications. The result of feed formulation for T1 was cabbage (0%), sugarcane top (17.9%), bagasse (33.3%), Molasses (5.0%), cabagge (0%), Thitonia sp (10.0%), rice brand (2.7%), palm kernel cake (20.0%), corn meal (9.1%), bond meal (1.5%) and salt (0.5%). The formula of T2 was cabagge (5%), sugarcane top (1.7%), bagasse (45.2%), Molasses (5.0%), , Thitonia sp (10.0%), rice brand (3.6%), palm kernel cake (20.0%), corn meal (7.5%), bond meal (1.5%) and salt (0.5%). The formula of T3 was cabbage (10%), sugarcane top (0%), bagasse (45.3%), Molasses (5.0%), Thitonia sp (10.0%), rice brand (3.8%), palm kernel cake (20.0%), corn meal (3.9%), bond meal (1.5%) and salt(0.5%). The formula of T4 was cabagge (15.0%), sugarcane top (0%), bagasse (44.1%), Molasses (5.0%), Thitonia sp (10.0%), rice brand (3.9%), palm kernel cake (20.0%), corn meal (0%), bond meal (1.5%) and salt (0.5%). An increase in the level of inclusion of the cabbage waste can decrease the cost of rations. The cost of rations (IDR/kg on DM basis) were 1442, 1367, 1333, and 1300 respectively. The rations formula were not significantly (P > 0.05) influent the on fungal colonies, smell, texture and color of the complete ration silage, but the pH increased significantly (P < 0.05). It concluded that inclusion of cabbage waste can minimize the cost of buffalo ration, without decreasing the silage quality of complete feed.

Keywords: buffalo, cabbage, complete feed, sillage characteristic, sugarcane waste

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Authors: Sonia Gonzalez Cruz

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Subtitling activities allow for acquiring and developing certain translation skills, and they also have a great impact on the students' motivation. Active subtitling is a relatively recent activity that has generated a lot of interest particularly in the field of second-language acquisition, but it is also present within both the didactics of general translation and language teaching for translators. It is interesting to analyze the level of inclusion of these new resources into the existent curricula and observe to what extent these different teaching methods are being used in the translation classroom. Although subtitling has already become an independent discipline of study and it is considered to be a type of translation on its own, it is necessary to do further research on the different didactic varieties that this type of audiovisual translation offers. Therefore, this project is framed within the field of the didactics of translation, and it focuses on the relationship between the didactics of general translation and active subtitling as a didactic tool. Its main objective is to analyze the inclusion of interlinguistic active subtitling in general translation curricula at different universities. As it has been observed so far, the analyzed curricula do not make any type of reference to the use of this didactic tool in general translation classrooms. However, they do register the inclusion of other audiovisual activities such as dubbing, script translation or video watching, among others. By means of online questionnaires and interviews, the main goal is to confirm the results obtained after the observation of the curricula and find out to what extent subtitling has actually been included into general translation classrooms.

Keywords: subtitling, general translation, didactics, translation competence

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Authors: Deepa Idnani

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Attendance is an important factor in school success among children. Studies show that better attendance is related to higher academic achievement for students of all backgrounds, but particularly for children with lower socio-economic status. Beginning from the early years, students who attend school regularly score higher on tests than their peers who are frequently absent. The present study in different types of School In Delhi tries to highlight the impact of student absenteeism and the challenges it poses for the students. The study relies on Lewin ‘Model of Exclusion’ and tries to focus on the analysis of children with special needs and the inclusion and exclusion of students in the school.

Keywords: student absenteeism, pedagogy, learning, right to education act, exclusion

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Authors: Roberta Martino, Viviana Ventre

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From a theoretical point of view, the relationship between the risk associated with an investment and the expected value are directly proportional, in the sense that the market allows a greater result to those who are willing to take a greater risk. However, empirical evidence proves that this relationship is distorted in the minds of investors and is perceived exactly the opposite. To deepen and understand the discrepancy between the actual actions of the investor and the theoretical predictions, this paper analyzes the essential parameters used for the valuation of financial assets with greater attention to two elements: probability and the passage of time. Although these may seem at first glance to be two distinct elements, they are closely related. In particular, the error in the theoretical description of the relationship between risk and return lies in the failure to consider the impatience that is generated in the decision-maker when events that have not yet happened occur in the decision-making context. In this context, probability loses its objective meaning and in relation to the psychological aspects of the investor, it can only be understood as the degree of confidence that the investor has in the occurrence or non-occurrence of an event. Moreover, the concept of objective probability does not consider the inter-temporality that characterizes financial activities and does not consider the condition of limited cognitive capacity of the decision maker. Cognitive psychology has made it possible to understand that the mind acts with a compromise between quality and effort when faced with very complex choices. To evaluate an event that has not yet happened, it is necessary to imagine that it happens in your head. This projection into the future requires a cognitive effort and is what differentiates choices under conditions of risk and choices under conditions of uncertainty. In fact, since the receipt of the outcome in choices under risk conditions is imminent, the mechanism of self-projection into the future is not necessary to imagine the consequence of the choice and the decision makers dwell on the objective analysis of possibilities. Financial activities, on the other hand, develop over time and the objective probability is too static to consider the anticipatory emotions that the self-projection mechanism generates in the investor. Assuming that uncertainty is inherent in valuations of events that have not yet occurred, the focus must shift from risk management to uncertainty management. Only in this way the intertemporal dimension of the decision-making environment and the haste generated by the financial market can be cautioned and considered. The work considers an extension of the prospectus theory with the temporal component with the aim of providing a description of the attitude towards risk with respect to the passage of time.

Keywords: impatience, risk aversion, subjective probability, uncertainty

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Authors: Rahul Kumar

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Background: Under-FiveMortality Rate(U5MR)ofanationiswidelyacceptedandlong-standing indicators of well-beingofherchildren.They measuredtheprobability of dying before theageoffive(expressedper1000livebirths).TheU5MRisanappropriate indicator of the cumulative exposure totheriskofdeathduringthefirstfiveyearsoflife, and accepted globalindicator ofthehealthandsocioeconomicstatusofagiven population.Itisalsousefulforassessing theimpactofvariousintervention programmes aimed at improving child survival.Under-fivemortalitytrendsconstitutealeadingindicatorofthelevel ofchildhealthandoveralldevelopmentincountries. Objectives: The first aim of our research is to study the level, trends, and Pattern of Under-five mortality using different sources of data. The second objective is to examine the survival pattern of Under-five mortality by different background characteristics. Data Source and Methodology: SRS and NFHS data have been used forobservingthelevelandtrendofUnder-Five mortality rate. Kaplan Meier Estimate has been used to understand the survival Pattern of Under-five mortality. Result: WefindthatallmostallthestatesmadesomeprogressbyreducingU5MRin recent decades.During1992-93highestU5MR(per thousand live birth) was observed in Assam(142)followed by up(141),Odisha(131),MP(130),andBihar(127.5).While the least U5MR(perthousandlive birth)wasobservedinRajasthan(102). The highestU5MR(per thousandlive birth)isobservedinUP(78.1), followed by MP(64.9)and Chhattisgarh(63.7)which are far away from the national level(50). Among them, Uttarakhand(46.7)hadleastU5MR(perthousandlivebirth), followed by Odisha(48.6). TheU5MR(perthousandlivebirth)ofcombinedhighfocusstateis63.7whichisfar away fromthenationallevel(50). Weidentified thatthesurvivalprobability ofunder-fivechildrenfromadolescentmotherislessin comparisontootherchildrenbornby differentagegroupofmothers. thatduringneonatalperiodusually male mortality exceedsthefemale mortality butthisdifferentialreversedinthepostneonatalperiod. Astheirageincreasesand approachingtofiveyears,weidentifiedthatthesurvivalprobability ofbothsexdecreasesbut female’s survival probabilitydecrement is more than male as their ageincreases. The poorer children’s survival probability is minimum. Children using improved toilet facility has more survival probability throughout thefiveyearsthan who uses unimproved. The survival probability of children under five who got Full ANCis more than the survival probability of children under five who doesn’t get any ANC. Conclusions: Improvement of maternal education is an urgent need to improve their health seeking behavior and thus the health of their children. Awareness on reproductive health and environmental sanitation should be strengthened.

Keywords: under-five mortality, survival pattern, ANC, trend

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Authors: Corey Clay

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A fraction of mechanical trainees (graduate students) from underrepresented groups (URM) has steadily increased through targeted recruitment and interventions to support their success during training. However, this trend has yet to translate to a connected increase in the number of faculty from these underrepresented groups. The purpose here is to look at proven strategies that departments and research institutions can develop to increase faculty hiring and promotion equity to address the lack of racial and gender diversity among their faculty. We will look at this process through an Adlerian lens, i.e., Adler theorized social interest as “a feeling of community, an orientation to living cooperatively with others, and a lifestyle that values the common good above one’s own interests and desires.” This abstract will look at implementing a cogent DEI strategy through an Adlerian perspective.

Keywords: diversity, equity, inclusion, adlerian

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Authors: Yu Song, Yuefei Jin

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Urban public transportation can be integrated when there is an efficient connection between urban rail lines, however, there are currently no effective or quick solutions being investigated for this connection. This paper analyzes the space-time distribution and travel demand of passenger connection travel based on taxi track data and data from the road network, excavates potential bus connection stations based on potential connection demand data, and introduces the link growth probability model in the complex network to solve the basic connection bus lines in order to ascertain the direction of the bus lines that are the most connected given the demand characteristics. Then, a tree view exhaustive approach based on constraints is suggested based on graph theory, which can hasten the convergence of findings while doing chain calculations. This study uses WEI QU NAN Station, the Xi'an Metro Line 2 terminal station in Shaanxi Province, as an illustration, to evaluate the model's and the solution method's efficacy. According to the findings, 153 prospective stations have been dug up in total, the feeder bus network for the entire line has been laid out, and the best route adjustment strategy has been found.

Keywords: feeder bus, route optimization, link growth probability, the graph theory

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Authors: Mariana Fernandes

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Instituto Politécnico de Viana do Castelo (IPVC) has adopted a policy of inclusion and equity and the promotion of health and academic well-being, reinforcing measures already implemented in previous years, but also with the inclusion of new inclusion and equity policies that allow access, throughout all students, to Higher Education (ES). The Inclusive School project, the Plan for Equality, the IPVC's own Regulations for students with Special Educational Needs (SEN), and the support guaranteed by the Health and Wellbeing Office, Academic Services, and teaching staff are some of the examples of the varied strategies that IPVC undertakes to guarantee effective conditions so that students with disabilities can enter ES and experience a positive academic experience. This study's main objective is to reflect and disseminate the inclusion practices that IPVC practices with regard to Students with SEN. To this, a consultation and documentary analysis of internal documentation was carried out, consultation of the IPVC Quality Management System (QMS) process and, also, using the report referring to the ENEE questionnaire implemented in the year 2023, this report which presents the opinion of IPVC students with SEN, whether with support throughout the ENEE application submission process, with response deadlines, with the Individual Support Plan, as well as with physical and technological accessibility and communication. The results obtained show IPVC's effective commitment to this topic, in addition to the entire circuit created to guarantee equitable access for these students from the moment they join IPVC, a circuit that involves various human resources and( s) its sensitivity to this topic, it also promoted, through the Health and Wellbeing Office, the restructuring of the IPVC ENEE Regulation itself based on the needs and challenges felt in monitoring these students, the innovation of the services themselves of health and consequent awareness of all surrounding resources and services (from the Management, to the teaching staff and academic services). Currently, there is already an Individual Pedagogical Support Plan (PIAP), frequent meetings with the Reception Group, Psychology consultations – both clinically and educationally – and a growing concern in listening to the student community to improve the process. Based on these results, it is concluded that IPVC is an institution sensitive to promoting a positive, equitable, and, above all, inclusive higher education path.

Keywords: special educational needs, inclusion, equity, equality

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Authors: A. GuhaRay, C. V. S. P. Kiranmayi, S. Rudraraju

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The present study considers the effect of variation of different geotechnical random variables in the design of stone column-foundation systems for assessing the bearing capacity and consolidation settlement of highly compressible soil. The soil and stone column properties, spacing, diameter and arrangement of stone columns are considered as the random variables. Probability of failure (P_f) is computed for a target degree of consolidation and a target safe load by Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). The study shows that the variation in coefficient of radial consolidation (c_r) and cohesion of soil (c_s) are two most important factors influencing Pf. If the coefficient of variation (COV) of c_r exceeds 20%, P_f exceeds 0.001, which is unsafe following the guidelines of US Army Corps of Engineers. The bearing capacity also exceeds its safe value for COV of c_s > 30%. It is also observed that as the spacing between the stone column increases, the probability of reaching a target degree of consolidation decreases. Accordingly, design guidelines, considering both consolidation and bearing capacity of improved ground, are proposed for different spacing and diameter of stone columns and geotechnical random variables.

Keywords: bearing capacity, consolidation, geotechnical random variables, probability of failure, stone columns

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Authors: Bindhu Lal, Karnika Kochal

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Clayey soil contains clay minerals with traces of metal oxides and organic matter, which exhibits properties like low drainage, high plasticity, and shrinkage. To overcome these issues, various soil reinforcement techniques are used to elevate the stiffness, water tightness, and bearing capacity of the soil. Such techniques include cementation, bituminization, freezing, fiber inclusion, geo-synthetics, nailing, etc. Reinforcement of soil with fibers has been a cost-effective solution to soil improvement problems. An experimental study was undertaken involving the inclusion of cotton waste fibers in clayey soil as reinforcement with different fiber contents (1%, 1.5%, 2%, and 2.5% by weight) and analyzing its effects on the unconfined compressive strength of the soil. Two categories of soil were taken, comprising of natural clay and clay mixed with 5% sodium bentonite by weight. The soil specimens were subjected to proctor compaction and unconfined compression tests. The validated outcome shows that fiber inclusion has a strikingly positive impact on the compressive strength and axial strain at failure of the soil. Based on the commendatory results procured, compressive strength was found to be directly proportional to the fiber content, with the effect being more pronounced at lower water content.

Keywords: bentonite clay, clay, cotton fibers, unconfined compressive strength

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Authors: Nitaya Buntao

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This paper considers the problems of interval estimation for rainfall mean of the lognormal distribution and the delta-lognormal distribution in Northeastern Thailand. We present here the modified generalized pivotal approach (MGPA) compared to the modified method of variance estimates recovery (MMOVER). The performance of each method is examined in term of coverage probabilities and average lengths by Monte Carlo simulation. An extensive simulation study indicates that the MMOVER performs better than the MGPA approach in terms of the coverage probability; it results in highly accurate coverage probability.

Keywords: rainfall mean, interval estimation, lognormal distribution, delta-lognormal distribution

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Authors: Syed Ahzam Tariq, Atharva Modi

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This paper presents a probabilistic analysis of the safety of water tube boilers using fault tree analysis (FTA). A fault tree has been constructed by considering all possible areas where a malfunction could lead to a boiler accident. Boiler accidents are relatively rare, causing a scarcity of data. The fuzzy approach is employed to perform a quantitative analysis, wherein theories of fuzzy logic are employed in conjunction with expert elicitation to calculate failure probabilities. The Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis (FFTA) provides a scientific and contingent method to forecast and prevent accidents.

Keywords: fault tree analysis water tube boiler, fuzzy probability score, failure probability

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Authors: Abir Touati, Syed Jawad Hussain, Farid Touati, Ammar Bouallegue

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Although there has been a growing interest in the hybrid free-space optical link and radio frequency FSO/RF communication system, the current literature is limited to results obtained in moderate or cold environment. In this paper, using a soft switching approach, we investigate the effect of weather inhomogeneities on the strength of turbulence hence the channel refractive index under Qatar harsh environment and their influence on the hybrid FSO/RF availability. In this approach, either FSO/RF or simultaneous or none of them can be active. Based on soft switching approach and a finite state Markov Chain (FSMC) process, we model the channel fading for the two links and derive a mathematical expression for the outage probability of the hybrid system. Then, we evaluate the behavior of the hybrid FSO/RF under hazy and harsh weather. Results show that the FSO/RF soft switching renders the system outage probability less than that of each link individually. A soft switching algorithm is being implemented on FPGAs using Raptor code interfaced to the two terminals of a 1Gbps/100 Mbps FSO/RF hybrid system, the first being implemented in the region. Experimental results are compared to the above simulation results.

Keywords: atmospheric turbulence, haze, hybrid FSO/RF, outage probability, refractive index

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Authors: Martha E. Aguiar-Barrera, Humberto Gutierrez-Pulido, Veronica Vargas-Alejo

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Identifying and modeling random phenomena is a fundamental cognitive process to understand and transform reality. Recognizing situations governed by chance and giving them a scientific interpretation, without being carried away by beliefs or intuitions, is a basic training for citizens. Hence the importance of generating teaching-learning processes, supported using technology, paying attention to model creation rather than only executing mathematical calculations. In order to develop the student's knowledge about basic probability distributions and decision making; in this work a model eliciting activity (MEA) is reported. The intention was applying the Model and Modeling Perspective to design an activity related to civil engineering that would be understandable for students, while involving them in its solution. Furthermore, the activity should imply a decision-making challenge based on sample data, and the use of the computer should be considered. The activity was designed considering the six design principles for MEA proposed by Lesh and collaborators. These are model construction, reality, self-evaluation, model documentation, shareable and reusable, and prototype. The application and refinement of the activity was carried out during three school cycles in the Probability and Statistics class for Civil Engineering students at the University of Guadalajara. The analysis of the way in which the students sought to solve the activity was made using audio and video recordings, as well as with the individual and team reports of the students. The information obtained was categorized according to the activity phase (individual or team) and the category of analysis (sample, linearity, probability, distributions, mechanization, and decision-making). With the results obtained through the MEA, four obstacles have been identified to understand and apply the binomial distribution: the first one was the resistance of the student to move from the linear to the probabilistic model; the second one, the difficulty of visualizing (infering) the behavior of the population through the sample data; the third one, viewing the sample as an isolated event and not as part of a random process that must be viewed in the context of a probability distribution; and the fourth one, the difficulty of decision-making with the support of probabilistic calculations. These obstacles have also been identified in literature on the teaching of probability and statistics. Recognizing these concepts as obstacles to understanding probability distributions, and that these do not change after an intervention, allows for the modification of these interventions and the MEA. In such a way, the students may identify themselves the erroneous solutions when they carrying out the MEA. The MEA also showed to be democratic since several students who had little participation and low grades in the first units, improved their participation. Regarding the use of the computer, the RStudio software was useful in several tasks, for example in such as plotting the probability distributions and to exploring different sample sizes. In conclusion, with the models created to solve the MEA, the Civil Engineering students improved their probabilistic knowledge and understanding of fundamental concepts such as sample, population, and probability distribution.

Keywords: linear model, models and modeling, probability, randomness, sample

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Authors: Francis O. Nwawuru

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The convergence analysis of split monotone inclusion problems and fixed point problems of certain nonlinear mappings are investigated in the setting of real Hilbert spaces. Inertial extrapolation term in the spirit of Polyak is incorporated to speed up the rate of convergence. Under standard assumptions, a strong convergence of the proposed algorithm is established without computing the resolvent operator or involving Yosida approximation method. The stepsize involved in the algorithm does not depend on the spectral radius of the linear operator. Furthermore, applications of the proposed algorithm in solving some related optimization problems are also considered. Our result complements and extends numerous results in the literature.

Keywords: fixedpoint, hilbertspace, monotonemapping, resolventoperators

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Authors: Mahdi Rahimi, Mohammad Mahdi Mojahedian, Mohammad Reza Aref

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In this paper, a cellular communication scenario with a transmitter and an authorized user is considered to analyze its secrecy in the face of eavesdroppers and the interferences propagated unintentionally through the communication network. It is also assumed that some D2D pairs and eavesdroppers are randomly located in the cell. Assuming hardware impairment, perfect connection probability is analytically calculated, and upper bound is provided for the secrecy outage probability. In addition, a method based on random activation of D2Ds is proposed to improve network security. Finally, the analytical results are verified by simulations.

Keywords: physical layer security, stochastic geometry, device-to-device, hardware impairment

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Authors: Svitlana Yermak, Olubukola Aluko

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The purpose of this study was a literature review on the topic of social entrepreneurship, a review of new trends and best practices, the study of existing inclusive business models and their interaction with the principles of the circular economy for possible implementation in the practice of Ukraine in war and post-war times in conditions of scarce resources. Thus, three research questions were identified and substantiated: to determine the characteristics of social entrepreneurship, consider the features in Ukraine and the UK; highlight the criteria for inclusion in social entrepreneurship and its legal support; explore examples of existing inclusive circular business models to illustrate how the two concepts may be combined. A detailed review of the literature selected from the Scopus and Web of Science databases was carried out. The study revealed signs of social entrepreneurship, the main of which are doing business and making a profit, as well as the social orientation of the business, which is prescribed in the constituent documents of the enterprise immediately upon its creation. Considered are the characteristics of social entrepreneurship in the UK and Ukraine. It has been established that in the UK, social entrepreneurship is clearly regulated by the state; there are special legislative norms and support programs, in contrast to Ukraine, where these processes are only partially regulated. The study identified the main criteria for inclusion in inclusive circular business models: economic (sustainability and efficiency, job creation and economic growth, promotion of local development), social (accessibility, equity and fairness, inclusion and participation), and resources in their interconnection. It is substantiated that the resource criterion is especially important for this type of business model. It provides for the efficient and sustainable use of resources, as well as the cyclical nature of resources. And it was concluded that the principles of the circular economy not only do not contradict but, on the contrary, complement and expand the inclusive business models on which social entrepreneurship is based.

Keywords: social entrepreneurship, inclusive business models, circular economy, inclusion criteria

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Authors: Abhijitsinh Gohil, Kaushal Wadhvaniya, Kuldipsinh Jadeja

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Road Safety is a multi-sectoral and multi-dimensional issue. An effective model can assess the risk associated with highway safety. A questionnaire survey is very essential to identify the events or activities which are causing unsafe condition for traffic on an urban highway. A questionnaire of standard questions including vehicular, human and infrastructure characteristics can be made. Responses from the age wise group of road users can be taken on field. Each question or an event holds a specific risk weightage, which contributes in creating an inappropriate and unsafe flow of traffic. The probability of occurrence of an event can be calculated from the data collected from the road users. Finally, the risk score can be calculated by considering the risk factor and the probability of occurrence of individual event and addition of all risk score for the individual event will give the total risk score of a particular road. Standards for risk score can be made and total risk score can be compared with the standards. Thus road can be categorized based on risk associated and traffic safety on it. With this model, one can assess the need for traffic safety improvement on a given road, and qualitative data can be analysed.

Keywords: probability of occurrence, questionnaire, risk factor, risk score

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Authors: Sameer Jung Karki, Gokhan Saygili

Abstract:

The allowable bearing capacity of foundation systems is determined by applying a factor of safety to the ultimate bearing capacity. Conventional ultimate bearing capacity calculations routines are based on deterministic input parameters where the nonuniformity and inhomogeneity of soil and site properties are not accounted for. Hence, the laws of mathematics like probability calculus and statistical analysis cannot be directly applied to foundation engineering. It’s assumed that the Factor of Safety, typically as high as 3.0, incorporates the uncertainty of the input parameters. This factor of safety is estimated based on subjective judgement rather than objective facts. It is an ambiguous term. Hence, a probabilistic analysis of the bearing capacity of an isolated footing on a clayey soil is carried out by using the Monte Carlo Simulation method. This simulated model was compared with the traditional discrete model. It was found out that the bearing capacity of soil was found higher for the simulated model compared with the discrete model. This was verified by doing the sensitivity analysis. As the number of simulations was increased, there was a significant % increase of the bearing capacity compared with discrete bearing capacity. The bearing capacity values obtained by simulation was found to follow a normal distribution. While using the traditional value of Factor of safety 3, the allowable bearing capacity had lower probability (0.03717) of occurring in the field compared to a higher probability (0.15866), while using the simulation derived factor of safety of 1.5. This means the traditional factor of safety is giving us bearing capacity that is less likely occurring/available in the field. This shows the subjective nature of factor of safety, and hence probability method is suggested to address the variability of the input parameters in bearing capacity equations.

Keywords: bearing capacity, factor of safety, isolated footing, montecarlo simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 164

Authors: Jennifer Natalya Fink

Abstract:

Since the racial reckoning of 2020, almost every major educational institution has incorporated diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) principles into its administrative, hiring, and pedagogical practices. Yet these DEI principles rarely incorporate explicit language or critical thinking about disability. Despite the fact that according to the World Health Organization, one in five people worldwide is disabled, making disabled people the larger minority group in the world, disability remains the neglected stepchild of DEI. Drawing on disability studies and crip theory frameworks, the underlying causes of this exclusion of disability from DEI, such as stigma, shame, invisible disabilities, institutionalization/segregation/delineation from family, and competing models and definitions of disability are examined. This paper explores both the ideological and practical shifts necessary to include disability in university DEI initiatives. It offers positive examples as well as conceptual frameworks such as 'divers ability' for so doing. Using Georgetown University’s 2020-2022 DEI initiatives as a case study, this paper describes how curricular infusion, accessibility, identity, community, and diversity administration infused one university’s DEI initiatives with concrete disability-inclusive measures. It concludes with a consideration of how the very framework of DEI itself might be challenged and transformed if disability were to be included.

Keywords: diversity, equity, inclusion, disability, crip theory, accessibility

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Authors: Tasir Khan, Yejuan Wang

Abstract:

The study of extreme rainfall events is very important for flood management in river basins and the design of water conservancy infrastructure. Evaluation of quantiles of annual maximum rainfall (AMRF) is required in different environmental fields, agriculture operations, renewable energy sources, climatology, and the design of different structures. Therefore, the annual maximum rainfall (AMRF) was performed at different stations in Pakistan. Multiple probability distributions, log normal (LN), generalized extreme value (GEV), Gumbel (max), and Pearson type3 (P3) were used to find out the most appropriate distributions in different stations. The L moments method was used to evaluate the distribution parameters. Anderson darling test, Kolmogorov- Smirnov test, and chi-square test showed that two distributions, namely GUM (max) and LN, were the best appropriate distributions. The quantile estimate of a multi-parameter PD offers extreme rainfall through a specific location and is therefore important for decision-makers and planners who design and construct different structures. This result provides an indication of these multi-parameter distribution consequences for the study of sites and peak flow prediction and the design of hydrological maps. Therefore, this discovery can support hydraulic structure and flood management.

Keywords: RAMSE, multiple frequency analysis, annual maximum rainfall, L-moments

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Authors: S. Phanyaem

Abstract:

This paper presents the confidence intervals for the effect size base on bootstrap resampling method. The meta-analytic confidence interval for effect size is proposed that are easy to compute. A Monte Carlo simulation study was conducted to compare the performance of the proposed confidence intervals with the existing confidence intervals. The best confidence interval method will have a coverage probability close to 0.95. Simulation results have shown that our proposed confidence intervals perform well in terms of coverage probability and expected length.

Keywords: effect size, confidence interval, bootstrap method, resampling

Procedia PDF Downloads 575

Authors: Rafik Ouared

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to invalidate decisions made by the Islamic conference led at Istanbul in 2016, which had defined two basic criteria to determine the start of the lunar month: (1)they are all based on the sighting of the crescent, be it observed or computed with modern methods, and (2) they've strongly recommended the adoption of the principle of 'unification of sighting', by which any occurrence of sighting anywhere would be applicable everywhere. To demonstrate the invalidation of those statements, a survey of 101 years of data, from 1938 to 2038, have been analyzed to compare the probability density function (PDF) of time difference between different types of fajr and new moon. Two groups of fajr have been considered: the 'natural fajr', which is the very first fajr following new moon, and the 'biased fajr', which is defined by human being inclusively of all chosen definitions. The parametric and non-parametric statistical comparisons between the different groups have shown the all the biased PDFs are significantly different from the unbiased (natural) PDF with probability value (p-value) less than 0.001. The significance level was fixed to 0.05. Conclusion: the on-going reference to sighting of crescent is inducing an significant bias in defining lunar calendar. Therefore, 'natural' calendar would be more applicable requiring a more contextualized revision of issue in fiqh.

Keywords: biased fajr, lunar calendar, natural fajr, probability density function, sighting of crescent, time difference between fajr and new moon

Procedia PDF Downloads 190

Authors: B. O. Oyebanji, I. O. Dudusola, C. T. Ademola, S. A. Olaniyan

Abstract:

A 56 day study was conducted to evaluate the effect of dietary inclusion of Spondias mombin on hematological, growth, egg parameters and egg shell quality of Japanese quails, Cortunix cortunix japonica. One hundred birds were used for this study, and they were allocated randomly into 5 groups and replicated twice. Group 1 animals served as control without inclusion of extract, groups 2, 3, and 4 had 200 mg/kg, 400 mg/kg and 800 mg/kg inclusion of SM, group 5 had 600 mg/kg of vitamin C respectively. The birds were weighed weekly to determine weight change, the blood parameters analyzed at the completion of the experiment were PCV, Hb, RBC WBC, differential WBC count, MCH, MCH, and MCV were afterwards calculated from these parameters. 5 eggs were collected from each group and egg weight, eggshell weight, eggshell diameter, yolk weight, albumen weight, yolk diameter, yolk height, albumen percentage, yolk percentage and shell percentage were determined. There was no significant difference among the group for the hematological parameters measured and calculated. The egg weight and albumen weight of quails on 800 mg/kg was highest of all the groups, all other egg parameters measured showed no significant difference. The birds supplemented with Vitamin C had the highest weight gain (40.8±2.5 g) and the lowest feed conversion ratio (2.25). There was no mortality recorded in all the groups except in the SM800 group with 10% mortality. It can be concluded from this experiment that Vitamin C supplementation has positive effect on quail production in humid tropics and the inclusion of Spondias mombin leaf extract has a dose-dependent toxicity in quails.

Keywords: hematology, quails, Spondias mombin, vitamin C

Procedia PDF Downloads 332