Search results for: geological uncertainty

Authors: Amaechi O. Azi, Uche D. Aluge, Lim H. San, Godwin A. Agbo

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This paper is centered on the investigation of mineral deposits in selected locations in Oshiri province in Ebonyi State. Mineral deposits contribute immensely to the economic growth of a society. In researching lead and zinc oxide-bearing sites at Oshiri, geological and geophysical research technique was employed. Petrozenith, Earth Resistivity Meter, and Schlumberger setup were selected to examine the electrical characteristics of the subsurface. To determine the apparent resistivity of the subsurface, five soundings were taken, and the field data were processed using WinResist software. The mudstone, lead-shale, shale-granite, and lateritic topsoil were the four geoelectric strata that were found. The third layer, which corresponds to the shale-lead lithology, has a resistivity value between 211.9 m to 807.7 m at a depth of 25 m. Due to its resistivity levels and geological trend, this layer makes an excellent signature for lead-zinc occurrence. This zone is expected to house deposits of lead and zinc oxide in commercial quantity.

Keywords: Schlumberger, current, resistivity, lithology

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Authors: Samira Alvandi

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In the context of the circular economy, production planning aims to eliminate waste and emissions and maximize resource efficiency. Historically production planning is challenged through arrays of uncertainty and complexity arising from the interdependence and variability of products, processes, and systems. Manufacturers worldwide are facing new challenges in tackling various environmental issues such as climate change, resource depletion, and land degradation. In managing the inherited complexity and uncertainty and yet maintaining profitability, the manufacturing sector is in need of a holistic framework that supports energy efficiency and carbon emission reduction schemes. The proposed framework addresses the current challenges and integrates simulation modeling with optimization for finding optimal machine-job allocation to maximize throughput and total energy consumption while minimizing lead time. The aluminium refinery facility in western Sydney, Australia, is used as an exemplar to validate the proposed framework.

Keywords: smart production planning, simulation-optimisation, energy aware capacity planning, energy intensive industries

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Authors: Hao Zhang, Hongyang Yu

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Scale uncertainty is a well-known challenging problem in visual SLAM. Because RGB-D sensor provides depth information, RGB-D SLAM improves this scale uncertainty problem. However, due to the limitation of physical hardware, the depth map output by RGB-D sensor usually contains a large area of missing depth values. These missing depth information affect the accuracy and robustness of RGB-D SLAM. In order to reduce these effects, this paper completes the missing area of the depth map output by RGB-D sensor and then fuses the completed dense depth map into ORB SLAM2. By adding the process of obtaining pixel-level dense depth maps, a better RGB-D visual SLAM algorithm is finally obtained. In the process of obtaining dense depth maps, a deep learning model of indoor scenes is adopted. Experiments are conducted on public datasets and real-world environments of indoor scenes. Experimental results show that the proposed SLAM algorithm has better robustness than ORB SLAM2.

Keywords: RGB-D, SLAM, dense depth, depth map

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Authors: M. S. Thakur, Mohit Shukla

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A channel/tunnel, which carries the water to the penstock/pressure shaft is called headrace tunnel (HRT). It is necessary to know the general topography, geology of the area, state of stress and other mechanical properties of the strata. For this certain topographical and geological investigations, in-situ and laboratory tests, and observations are required to be done. These investigations play an important role in a tunnel design as these help in deciding the optimum layout, shape and size and support requirements of the tunnel. The paper includes inputs from Nathpa Jhakri Hydeoelectric project which is India’s highest capacity (1500 MW) operating hydroelectric project. The paper would help the design engineers with various new concepts and preparedness against geological surprises.

Keywords: tunnelling, geology, HRT, rockmass

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Authors: Ameen Alshugaa, Abul Mansur Masih

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This paper sheds light on the economic impacts of political uncertainty caused by the civil uprisings that swept the Arab World and have been collectively known as the Arab Spring. Measuring documented effects of political uncertainty on regional stock market indices, we examine the impact of the Arab Spring on the volatility of stock markets in eight countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region: Egypt, Lebanon, Jordon, United Arab Emirate, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman and Kuwait. This analysis also permits testing the existence of financial contagion among equity markets in the MENA region during the Arab Spring. To capture the time-varying and multi-horizon nature of the evidence of volatility and contagion in the eight MENA stock markets, we apply two robust methodologies on consecutive data from November 2008 to March 2014: MGARCH-DCC, Continuous Wavelet Transforms (CWT). Our results indicate two key findings. First, the discrepancies between volatile stock markets of countries directly impacted by the Arab Spring and countries that were not directly impacted indicate that international investors may still enjoy portfolio diversification and investment in MENA markets. Second, the lack of financial contagion during the Arab Spring suggests that there is little evidence of cointegration among MENA markets. Providing a general analysis of the economic situation and the investment climate in the MENA region during and after the Arab Spring, this study bear significant importance for policy makers, local and international investors, and market regulators.

Keywords: Portfolio Diversification , MENA Region , Stock Market Indices, MGARCH-DCC, Wavelet Analysis, CWT

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Authors: Desmond Agbolade Ademola

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This work aimed to introduce a theory, called Guided Energy Theory of a particle that answered questions that arise from quantum foundation, quantum mechanics theory, and interpretation such as: what is nature of wavefunction? Is mathematical formalism of wavefunction correct? Does wavefunction collapse during measurement? Do quantum physical entanglement and many world interpretations really exist? In addition, is there uncertainty in the physical reality of our nature as being concluded in the Quantum theory? We have been able to show by the fundamental analysis presented in this work that the way quantum mechanics theory, and interpretation describes nature is not correlated with physical reality. Because, we discovered amongst others that, (1) Guided energy theory of a particle fundamentally provides complete physical observable series of quantized measurement of a particle momentum, force, energy e.t.c. in a given distance and time.In contrast, quantum mechanics wavefunction describes that nature has inherited probabilistic and indeterministic physical quantities, resulting in unobservable physical quantities that lead to many worldinterpretation.(2) Guided energy theory of a particle fundamentally predicts that it is mathematically possible to determine precise quantized measurementof position and momentum of a particle simultaneously. Because, there is no uncertainty in nature; nature however naturally guides itself against uncertainty. Contrary to the conclusion in quantum mechanics theory that, it is mathematically impossible to determine the position and the momentum of a particle simultaneously. Furthermore, we have been able to show by this theory that, it is mathematically possible to determine quantized measurement of force acting on a particle simultaneously, which is not possible on the premise of quantum mechanics theory. (3) It is evidently shown by our theory that, guided energy does not collapse, only describes the lopsided nature of a particle behavior in motion. This pretty offers us insight on gradual process of engagement - convergence and disengagement – divergence of guided energy holders which further highlight the picture how wave – like behavior return to particle-like behavior and how particle – like behavior return to wave – like behavior respectively. This further proves that the particles’ behavior in motion is oscillatory in nature. The mathematical formalism of Guided energy theory shows that nature is certainty whereas the mathematical formalism of Quantum mechanics theory shows that nature is absolutely probabilistics. In addition, the nature of wavefunction is the guided energy of the wave. In conclusion, the fundamental mathematical formalism of Quantum mechanics theory is wrong.

Keywords: momentum, physical entanglement, wavefunction, uncertainty

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Authors: Nitin Singh, Meng Ling, Talha Ahmed, Tianxia Zhao, Reinier van de Pol

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We propose the use of reinforcement learning (RL) as a viable alternative for optimizing supply chain management, particularly in scenarios with stochasticity in product demands. RL’s adaptability to changing conditions and its demonstrated success in diverse fields of sequential decision-making makes it a promising candidate for addressing supply chain problems. We investigate the impact of demand fluctuations in a multi-product supply chain system and develop RL agents with learned generalizable policies. We provide experimentation details for training RL agents and statistical analysis of the results. We study the generalization ability of RL agents for different demand uncertainty scenarios and observe superior performance compared to the agents trained with fixed demand curves. The proposed methodology has the potential to lead to cost reduction and increased profit for companies dealing with frequent inventory movement between supply and demand nodes.

Keywords: inventory management, reinforcement learning, supply chain optimization, uncertainty

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Authors: Li Yongyi

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In order to explore the distribution of geological disasters within the expressway area of Shaanxi Province, the Analytic Hierarchy Process theory is applied based on the geographic information system technology platform, and the ground elevation, rainfall, vegetation coverage and other indicators are selected for analysis, and the expressway area is sensitive Sexual evaluation. The results show that the highway area disasters in Shaanxi Province are mainly distributed in the southern mountainous areas and are dominated by landslides; the disaster area ratio basically increases with the increase in ground elevation, surface slope, surface undulation, rainfall, and vegetation coverage. The increase in the distance from the river shows a decreasing trend; after grading the disaster sensitivity within 5km of the expressway, the extremely sensitive area, the highly sensitive area, the medium sensitive area, the low sensitive area, and the extremely low sensitive area respectively account for 8.17%、15.80%、22.99%、26.22%、26.82%. Highly sensitive road areas are mainly distributed in southern Shaanxi.

Keywords: highway engineering, sensitivity, analytic hierarchy process, geological hazard, road area

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Authors: Benhammadi Hocine, Djamel Boubaya, Chaffai Hicham

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Meskiana Area is characterized by a semi-arid climate where the water supply for irrigation and industry is not sufficient as the priority goes for domestic use. To meet the increasing population growth and development, the authorities have considered building a new water retaining structure on some major temporary water streams. For this purpose Chebabta site on Oued Meskiana was chosen as the future dam site. It is large enough to store the desired volume of water. This study comes to investigate the conditions of the site and the adequacy of the ground as a foundation for the projected dam. The conditions of the site include the geological structure and mainly the presence of discontinuities in the formation on which the dam will be built, the nature of the lithologies under the foundation and the future lake, and the presence of any hazard. This site characterization is usually carried out using different methods in order to highlight any underground buried problematic structure. In this context, the different geophysical technics remain the most used ones. Three geophysical methods were used in the case of the Chebabta dam site, namely, electric survey, seismic refraction, and tomography. The choice of the technics and the location of the scan line was made on the basis of the available geological data. In this sense, profiles have been established on both banks of Oued Meskiana. The obtained results have allowed a better characterization of the geological structure, defining the limit between the surface cover and the bedrock, which is, in other words, the limit between the weathered zone and the bedrock. Their respective thicknesses were also determined by seismic refraction and electrical resistivity sounding. However, the tomography imaging technic has succeeded in positioning a fault structure passing through the right bank of the wadi.

Keywords: dam site, fault, geophysic, investigation, Meskiana

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Authors: Babak Kamrani, Nozar Kishi

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Stochastic catalog represents the events module of the earthquake loss estimation models. It includes series of events with different magnitudes and corresponding frequencies/probabilities. For the development of the stochastic catalog, random or uniform sampling methods are used to sample the events from the seismicity model. For covering all the Magnitude Frequency Distribution (MFD), a huge number of events should be generated for the above-mentioned methods. Characteristic Event (CE) method chooses the events based on the interest of the insurance industry. We divide the MFD of each source into bins. We have chosen the bins based on the probability of the interest by the insurance industry. First, we have collected the information for the available seismic sources. Sources are divided into Fault sources, subduction, and events without specific fault source. We have developed the MFD for each of the individual and areal source based on the seismicity of the sources. Afterward, we have calculated the CE magnitudes based on the desired probability. To develop the stochastic catalog, we have introduced uncertainty to the location of the events too.

Keywords: stochastic catalogue, earthquake loss, uncertainty, characteristic event

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Authors: Vasilii V. Ananev

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Oil-and-gas potential of Cuba is found through the discoveries among which there are the most large-scale deposits, such as the Boca de Jaruco and Varadero fields of heavy oils. Currently, the petroleum and petroleum products needs of the island state are satisfied by own sources by less than a half. The prospects of the hydrocarbon resource base development are connected with the adjacent water area of the Gulf of Mexico where foreign companies had been granted license blocks for geological study and further development since 2001. Two Russian companies - JSC Gazprom Neft and OJSC Zarubezhneft, among others, took part in the development of the Cuban part of the Gulf of Mexico. Since 2004, five oil wells have been drilled by various companies in the deep waters of the exclusive economic zone of Cuba. Commercial oil-and-gas bearing prospects have been established in neither of them for both geological and technological reasons. However, only a small part of the water area has been covered by drilling and the productivity of the drill core has been tested at the depth of Cretaceous sediments only. In our opinion, oil-and-gas bearing prospects of the exclusive economic zone of the Republic of Cuba in the Gulf of Mexico remain undervalued and the mentioned water area needs additional geological exploration. The planning of exploration work in this poorly explored region shall be carried out systematically and it shall be based on the results of the regional scientific research.

Keywords: Cuba, catoche, geology, exploration

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Authors: E. M. Rifqi Wilda Pradana, Bagus Bayu Prabowo, Meida Riski Pujiyati, Efraim Maykhel Hagana Ginting, Virgiawan Arya Hangga Reksa

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The VLF (Very Low Frequency) method is an electromagnetic method that uses low frequencies between 10-30 KHz which results in a fairly deep penetration. In this study, the VLF method was used for zonation of disaster-prone areas by identifying geological structures in the form of faults. Data acquisition was carried out in Trimulyo Region, Jetis District, Bantul Regency, Special Region of Yogyakarta, Indonesia with 8 measurement paths. This study uses wave transmitters from Japan and Australia to obtain Tilt and Elipt values that can be used to create RAE (Rapat Arus Ekuivalen or Current Density) sections that can be used to identify areas that are easily crossed by electric current. This section will indicate the existence of a geological structure in the form of faults in the study area which is characterized by a high RAE value. In data processing of VLF method, it is obtained Tilt vs Elliptical graph and Moving Average (MA) Tilt vs Moving Average (MA) Elipt graph of each path that shows a fluctuating pattern and does not show any intersection at all. Data processing uses Matlab software and obtained areas with low RAE values that are 0%-6% which shows medium with low conductivity and high resistivity and can be interpreted as sandstone, claystone, and tuff lithology which is part of the Semilir Formation. Whereas a high RAE value of 10% -16% which shows a medium with high conductivity and low resistivity can be interpreted as a fault zone filled with fluid. The existence of the fault zone is strengthened by the discovery of a normal fault on the surface with strike N550W and dip 630E at coordinates X= 433256 and Y= 9127722 so that the activities of residents in the zone such as housing, mining activities and other activities can be avoided to reduce the risk of natural disasters.

Keywords: current density, faults, very low frequency, zonation

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Authors: Helen Pushkarskaya, Michael Smithson, Jane E. Joseph, Christine Corbly, Ifat Levy

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Studies of decision making under uncertainty generally focus on imprecise information about outcome probabilities (“ambiguity”). It is not clear, however, whether conflicting information about outcome probabilities affects decision making in the same manner as ambiguity does. Here we combine functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) and a simple gamble design to study this question. In this design, the levels of ambiguity and conflict are parametrically varied, and ambiguity and conflict gambles are matched on both expected value and variance. Behaviorally, participants avoided conflict more than ambiguity, and attitudes toward ambiguity and conflict did not correlate across subjects. Neurally, regional brain activation was differentially modulated by ambiguity level and aversion to ambiguity and by conflict level and aversion to conflict. Activation in the medial prefrontal cortex was correlated with the level of ambiguity and with ambiguity aversion, whereas activation in the ventral striatum was correlated with the level of conflict and with conflict aversion. This novel double dissociation indicates that decision makers process imprecise and conflicting information differently, a finding that has important implications for basic and clinical research.

Keywords: decision making, uncertainty, ambiguity, conflict, fMRI

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Authors: Isabela Moreira Queiroz

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Slope stability analyses are largely carried out by deterministic methods and evaluated through a single security factor. Although it is known that the geotechnical parameters can present great dispersal, such analyses are considered fixed and known. The probabilistic methods, in turn, incorporate the variability of input key parameters (random variables), resulting in a range of values of safety factors, thus enabling the determination of the probability of failure, which is an essential parameter in the calculation of the risk (probability multiplied by the consequence of the event). Among the probabilistic methods, there are three frequently used methods in geotechnical society: FOSM (First-Order, Second-Moment), Rosenblueth (Point Estimates) and Monte Carlo. This paper presents a comparison between the results from deterministic and probabilistic analyses (FOSM method, Monte Carlo and Rosenblueth) applied to a hypothetical slope. The end was held to evaluate the behavior of the slope and consequent risk analysis, which is used to calculate the risk and analyze their mitigation and control solutions. It can be observed that the results obtained by the three probabilistic methods were quite close. It should be noticed that the calculation of the risk makes it possible to list the priority to the implementation of mitigation measures. Therefore, it is recommended to do a good assessment of the geological-geotechnical model incorporating the uncertainty in viability, design, construction, operation and closure by means of risk management. 

Keywords: probabilistic methods, risk assessment, risk management, slope stability

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Authors: B. D. Patni, Ashwani Jain, Arindom Chakraborty

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The world’s highest mountain range has been forming since the collision of Indian Plate with Asian Plate 40-50 million years ago. The Indian subcontinent has been deeper and deeper in to the rest of Asia resulting upliftment of Himalaya & Tibetan Plateau. The complex domain has become a major challenge for construction of hydro electric projects. The Himalayas are geologically complex & seismically active. Shifting of Indian Plate northwardly and increasing the amount of stresses in the fragile domain which leads to deformation in the form of several fold, faults and upliftment. It is difficult to undergo extensive geological investigation to ascertain the geological problems to be encountered during construction. Inaccessibility of the terrain, high rock cover, unpredictable ground water condition etc. are the main constraints. The hydroelectric projects located in Himalayas have faced many geological and geo-hydrological problems while construction of surface and subsurface works. Based on the experience, efforts have been made to identify the expected geological problems during and after construction of the projects. These have been classified into surface and subsurface problems which include existence of inhomogeneous deep overburden in the river bed or buried valley, abrupt change in bed rock profile, Occurrences of fault zones/shear zones/fractured rock in dam foundation and slope instability in the abutments. The tunneling difficulties are many such as squeezing ground condition, popping, rock bursting, high temperature gradient, heavy ingress of water, existence of shear seams/shear zones and emission of obnoxious gases. However, these problems were mitigated by adopting suitable remedial measures as per site requirement. The support system includes shotcrete, wire mesh, rock bolts, steel ribs, fore-poling, pre-grouting, pipe-roofing, MAI anchors, toe wall, retaining walls, reinforced concrete dowels, drainage drifts, anchorage cum drainage shafts, soil nails, concrete cladding and shear keys. Controlled drilling & blasting, heading & benching, proper drainage network and ventilation system are other remedial measures adopted to overcome such adverse situations. The paper highlights the geological uncertainties and its remedial measures in Himalaya, based on the analysis and evaluation of 20 hydroelectric projects during construction.

Keywords: geological problems, shear seams, slope, drilling & blasting, shear zones

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Authors: Shreya Banerjee, Prasanta K. Panigrahi

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The three-way distributive entanglement is shown to be related to the parallelism of vectors. Using a measurement-based approach a set of 2−dimensional vectors is formed, representing the post-measurement states of one of the parties. These vectors originate at the same point and have an angular distance between them. The area spanned by a pair of such vectors is a measure of the entanglement of formation. This leads to a geometrical manifestation of the 3−tangle in 2−dimensions, from inequality in the area which generalizes for n− qubits to reveal that the n− tangle also has a planar structure. Quantifying the genuine n−party entanglement in every 1|(n − 1) bi-partition it is shown that the genuine n−way entanglement does not manifest in n− tangle. A new quantity geometrically similar to 3−tangle is then introduced that represents the genuine n− way entanglement. Extending the formalism to 3− qutrits, the nonlocality without entanglement can be seen to arise from a condition under which the post-measurement state vectors of a separable state show parallelism. A connection to nontrivial sum uncertainty relation analogous to Maccone and Pati uncertainty relation is then presented using decomposition of post-measurement state vectors along parallel and perpendicular direction of the pre-measurement state vectors. This study opens a novel way to understand multiparty entanglement in qubit and qudit systems.

Keywords: Geometry of quantum entanglement, Multipartite and distributive entanglement, Parallelism of vectors , Tangle

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Authors: Bin Wang, Yong Xu, Honggang Qu, Rongmei Liu, Zhenji Gao

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Based on the geodynamic environment, basic geological characteristics of minerals and so on, gold deposits in China are divided into 11 categories, of which tectonic fracture altered rock, mid-intrudes and contact zone, micro-fine disseminated and continental volcanic types are the main prospecting kinds. The metallogenic age of gold deposits in China is dominated by the Mesozoic and Cenozoic. According to the geotectonic units, geological evolution, geological conditions, spatial distribution, gold deposits types, metallogenic factors etc., 42 gold concentration areas are initially determined and have a concentrated distribution feature. On the basis of the gold exploration density, gold concentration areas are divided into high, medium and low level areas. High ones are mainly distributed in the central and eastern regions. 93.04% of the gold exploration drillings are within 500 meters, but there are some problems, such as less and shallower of drilling verification etc.. The paper discusses the resource potentials of gold deposits and proposes the future prospecting directions and suggestions. The deep and periphery of old mines in the central and eastern regions and western area, especially in Xinjiang and Qinghai, will be the future key prospecting one and have huge potential gold reserves. If the exploration depth is extended to 2,000 meters shallow, the gold resources will double.

Keywords: gold deposits, gold deposits types, gold concentration areas, prospecting, resource potentiality

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Authors: S. A. Agbalajobi, W. A. Bello

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The study carried out analysis on slope stability in an excavated gneiss rock using geological strength index (GSI) in Ilorin, Kwara State, Nigeria. A kinematic analysis of planar discontinuity sets in a gneiss deposit was carried out to ascertain the degree of slope stability. Discontinuity orientations in the rock mass were mapped using compass clinometers. The average result of physical and mechanical properties such as specific gravity, unit weight, uniaxial compressive strength, point load index, and Schmidt rebound value are 2.64 g/m3, 25.95 kN/m3, 156 MPa, 6.5 MPa, and 53.12 respectively. Also, a statistical model equation relating the rock strength was developed. The analyses states that the rock face is susceptible to wedge failures having all the geometrical conditions associated with the occurrence of such failures were noticeable. It can be concluded that analyses of discontinuity orientation in relation to cut face direction in rock excavation is essential for mine planning to forestall mine accidents. Assessment of excavated slope methods was evident that one excavation method (blasting and/or use of hydraulic hammer) is applicable for the given rock strength, the ease of excavation decreases as the rock mass quality increases, thus blasting most suitable for such operation.

Keywords: slope stability, wedge failure, geological strength index (GSI), discontinuities and excavated slope

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Authors: M. Saiful Islam, M. Mohandes, S. Rehman, S. Badran

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Increasing necessity of wind power is directing us to have precise knowledge on wind resources. Methodical investigation of potential locations is required for wind power deployment. High penetration of wind energy to the grid is leading multi megawatt installations with huge investment cost. This fact appeals to determine appropriate places for wind farm operation. For accurate assessment, detailed examination of wind speed profile, relative humidity, temperature and other geological or atmospheric parameters are required. Among all of these uncertainty factors influencing wind power estimation, vertical extrapolation of wind speed is perhaps the most difficult and critical one. Different approaches have been used for the extrapolation of wind speed to hub height which are mainly based on Log law, Power law and various modifications of the two. This paper proposes a Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Genetic Algorithm (GA) based hybrid model, namely GA-NN for vertical extrapolation of wind speed. This model is very simple in a sense that it does not require any parametric estimations like wind shear coefficient, roughness length or atmospheric stability and also reliable compared to other methods. This model uses available measured wind speeds at 10m, 20m and 30m heights to estimate wind speeds up to 100m. A good comparison is found between measured and estimated wind speeds at 30m and 40m with approximately 3% mean absolute percentage error. Comparisons with ANN and power law, further prove the feasibility of the proposed method.

Keywords: wind profile, vertical extrapolation of wind, genetic algorithm, artificial neural network, hybrid machine learning

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Authors: Magid Maatallah

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The problem is, investment management in modern conditions boils down to risk management which is very underdeveloped in Islamic financial theory and practice. Add to this the fact that, in Islamic perception, this is one of the areas of conventional finance in need of drastic reforms. This need was recently underlined by the story of Long Term Capital Management (LTCM ), ( told by Roger Lowenstein in his book, When Genius Failed, Random House, 2000 ). So we face a double challenge, to develop Islamic techniques of risk management and to see that these new techniques are free from the ills with which conventional methods are suffering. This is different from the challenge faced in the middle of twentieth century, to develop a method of financial intermediation free of interest.Risk was always there, especially in business. But industrialization brought risks unknown in trade and agriculture. Industrial production often involves long periods of time .The longer the period of production the more the uncertainty. The scope of the market has expanded to cover the whole world, introducing new kinds of risk. More than a thousand years ago, when Islamic laws were being written, the nature and scope of risk and uncertainty was different. However, something can still be learnt which, in combination with the modern experience, should enable us to realize the Shariah objectives of justice, fairness and efficiency.

Keywords: financial markets, Islamic framework, risk management, investment

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Authors: Ghussoun Al-Jeiroudi

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Stochastic programming is one of the powerful technique which is used to solve real-life problems. Hence, the data of real-life problems is subject to significant uncertainty. Uncertainty is well studied and modeled by stochastic programming. Each day, problems become bigger and bigger and the need for a tool, which does deal with large scale problems, increase. Interior point method is a perfect tool to solve such problems. Interior point method is widely employed to solve the programs, which arise from stochastic programming. It is an iterative technique, so it is required a starting point. Well design starting point plays an important role in improving the convergence speed. In this paper, we propose a starting point for interior point method for multistage stochastic programming. Usually, the optimal solution of stage k+1 is used as starting point for the stage k. This point has the advantage of being close to the solution of the current program. However, it has a disadvantage; it is not in the feasible region of the current program. So, we suggest to take this point and modifying it. That is by adding to it a vector in the null space of the matrix of the unchanged constraints because the solution will change only in the null space of this matrix.

Keywords: interior point methods, stochastic programming, null space, starting points

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Authors: Calorine Twebaze, Jesca Balinga

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Field X is located on the Eastern shores of L. Albert, Uganda, on the rift flank where the gross sedimentary fill is typically less than 2,000m. The field was discovered in 2006 and encountered about 20.4m of net pay across three (3) stratigraphic intervals within the discovery well. The field covers an area of 3 km2, with the structural configuration comprising a 3-way dip-closed hanging wall anticline that seals against the basement to the southeast along the bounding fault. Field X had been mapped on reprocessed 3D seismic data, which was originally acquired in 2007 and reprocessed in 2013. The seismic data quality is good across the field, and reprocessing work reduced the uncertainty in the location of the bounding fault and enhanced the lateral continuity of reservoir reflectors. The current study was a re-evaluation of Field X to refine fault interpretation and understand the structural uncertainties associated with the field. The seismic data, and three (3) wells datasets were used during the study. The evaluation followed standard workflows using Petrel software and structural attribute analysis. The process spanned from seismic- -well tie, structural interpretation, and structural uncertainty analysis. Analysis of three (3) well ties generated for the 3 wells provided a geophysical interpretation that was consistent with geological picks. The generated time-depth curves showed a general increase in velocity with burial depth. However, separation in curve trends observed below 1100m was mainly attributed to minimal lateral variation in velocity between the wells. In addition to Attribute analysis, three velocity modeling approaches were evaluated, including the Time-Depth Curve, Vo+ kZ, and Average Velocity Method. The generated models were calibrated at well locations using well tops to obtain the best velocity model for Field X. The Time-depth method resulted in more reliable depth surfaces with good structural coherence between the TWT and depth maps with minimal error at well locations of 2 to 5m. Both the NNE-SSW rift border fault and minor faults in the existing interpretation were reevaluated. However, the new interpretation delineated an E-W trending fault in the northern part of the field that had not been interpreted before. The fault was interpreted at all stratigraphic levels and thus propagates from the basement to the surface and is an active fault today. It was also noted that the entire field is less faulted with more faults in the deeper part of the field. The major structural uncertainties defined included 1) The time horizons due to reduced data quality, especially in the deeper parts of the structure, an error equal to one-third of the reflection time thickness was assumed, 2) Check shot analysis showed varying velocities within the wells thus varying depth values for each well, and 3) Very few average velocity points due to limited wells produced a pessimistic average Velocity model.

Keywords: 3D seismic data interpretation, structural uncertainties, attribute analysis, velocity modelling approaches

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Authors: Ridoy Das, Myriam Neaimeh, Yue Wang, Ghanim Putrus

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Electric vehicles are a popular transportation medium renowned for potential environmental benefits. However, large and uncontrolled charging volumes can impact distribution networks negatively. Smart charging is widely recognized as an efficient solution to achieve both improved renewable energy integration and grid relief. Nevertheless, different decision-makers may pursue diverse and conflicting objectives. In this context, this paper proposes a multi-objective optimization framework to control electric vehicle charging to achieve both energy cost reduction and peak shaving. A weighted-sum method is developed due to its intuitiveness and efficiency. Monte Carlo simulations are implemented to investigate the impact of uncertain electric vehicle driving patterns and provide decision-makers with a robust outcome in terms of prospective cost and network loading. The results demonstrate that there is a conflict between energy cost efficiency and peak shaving, with the decision-makers needing to make a collaborative decision.

Keywords: electric vehicles, multi-objective optimization, uncertainty, mixed integer linear programming

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Authors: Mengdi Zhang, Xufeng Liu, Zhenji Gao, Ying Li, Zhu Rao, Yi Huang

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As an open system, the earth is constantly undergoing the transformation and release of matter and energy. Fault zones are relatively discontinuous and fragile geological structures, and the release of material and energy inside the Earth is strongest in relatively weak fault zones. Earthquake events frequently occur in fault zones and are closely related to tectonic activity in these zones. In earthquake precursor observation, monitoring the spatiotemporal changes in the release of related gases near fault zones (such as radon gas, hydrogen, carbon dioxide, helium), and analyzing earthquake precursor anomalies, can be effective means to forecast the occurrence of earthquake events. Radon gas, as an inert radioactive gas generated during the decay of uranium and thorium, is not only a indicator for monitoring tectonic and seismic activity, but also an important topic for ecological and environmental health, playing a crucial role in uranium exploration. At present, research on soil radon gas mainly focuses on the measurement of soil gas concentration and flux in fault zone profiles, while research on the correlation between spatiotemporal concentration changes in the same region and its geological background is relatively little. In this paper, Tangshan area in north China is chosen as research area. An analysis was conducted on the seismic geological background of Tangshan area firstly. Then based on quantitative analysis and comparison of measurement radon concentrations of 2023 and 2010, combined with the study of seismic activity and environmental changes during the time period, the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics and influencing factors were explored, in order to analyze the gas emission characteristics of the Tangshan fault zone and its relationship with fault activity, which aimed to be useful for the future work in earthquake monitor of Tangshan area.

Keywords: radon, Northern China, soil gas, earthquake

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Authors: Niranjani Ruba Pandian

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In today’s multicultural global business community, most of the businesses and industries are linked with various countries in which different nationalities have different roles and responsibilities throughout the project. The purpose of this research is to examine the cross-cultural challenges between Indian and French and the ways to minimize these challenges to manage effectively the cross-cultural aspect of human resources for the success of global business in an automotive industry. The conducted study utilized quantitative methodology to analyze the data on Indian and French employees' perceptions of 6 cultural dimensions such as power versus distance, individualism versus collectivism, masculinity versus femininity, uncertainty versus avoidance, pragmatic versus normative and indulgence versus restraint. Employees of 4 multinational companies filled in the questionnaire based on the 5-point Likert scale to present quantitative results. The data was analysed with the correlation and multiple regression statistical analyses. It was found that Indian and French have major gap in uncertainty versus avoidance followed by individualism versus collectivism. However, this article highlights the way to minimize these gaps by adopting certain sequenced methodologies.

Keywords: automotive industry, cross cultural challenges, globalization, global business

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Authors: Rideci Farias, Haroldo Paranhos

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The present work deals with the use of drainage geo-composite as a deep drainage and geogrid element to reinforce the base of the body of the landfill destined to the road pavement on geological faults in the stretch of the TO-342 Highway, between the cities of Miracema and Miranorte, in the State of Tocantins / TO, Brazil, which for many years was the main link between TO-010 and BR-153, after the city of Palmas, also in the state of Tocantins / TO, Brazil. For this application, geotechnical and geological studies were carried out by means of SPT percussion drilling, drilling and rotary drilling, to understand the problem, identifying the type of faults, filling material and the definition of the water table. According to the geological and geotechnical studies carried out, the area where the route was defined, passes through a zone of longitudinal fault to the runway, with strong breaking / fracturing, with presence of voids, intense alteration and with advanced argilization of the rock and with the filling up parts of the faults by organic and compressible soils leachate from other horizons. This geology presents as a geotechnical aggravating agent a medium of high hydraulic load and very low resistance to penetration. For more than 20 years, the region presented constant excessive deformations in the upper layers of the pavement, which after routine services of regularization, reconformation, re-compaction of the layers and application of the asphalt coating. The faults were quickly propagated to the surface of the asphalt pavement, generating a longitudinal shear, forming steps (unevenness), close to 40 cm, causing numerous accidents and discomfort to the drivers, since the geometric positioning was in a horizontal curve. Several projects were presented to the region's highway department to solve the problem. Due to the need for partial closure of the runway, the short time for execution, the use of geosynthetics was proposed and the most adequate solution for the problem was taken into account the movement of existing geological faults and the position of the water level in relation to several Layers of pavement and failure. In order to avoid any flow of water in the body of the landfill and in the filling material of the faults, a drainage curtain solution was used, carried out at 4.0 meters depth, with drainage geo-composite and as reinforcement element and inhibitor of the possible A geogrid of 200 kN / m of resistance was inserted at the base of the reconstituted landfill. Recent evaluations, after 13 years of application of the solution, show the efficiency of the technique used, supported by the geotechnical studies carried out in the area.

Keywords: geosynthetics, geocomposite, geogrid, road, recovery, geological failure

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Authors: Irakli Gamkrelidze, David Shengelia, Giorgi Chichinadze, Tamara Tsutsunava, Giorgi Beridze, Tamara Tsamalashvili, Ketevan Tedliashvili, Irakli Javakhishvili

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The Caucasus is situated between the Eurasian and Africa-Arabian plates and represents a component of the Mediterranean (Alpine-Himalayan) collision belt. The Loki crystalline massif crops out within one of the terranes of the Caucasus – Baiburt-Sevanian terrane. By the end of 2018, a digital geological map (1:50 000) of the Loki massif was compiled. The presented map is of great importance for the region since there is no large-scale geological map which reflects the present standards of the geological study of the massif up to the last time. The existing State Geological Map of the Loki massif is very outdated. A new map drown by using GIS (Geographic Information System) technology is loaded with multi-informative details that include: specified contours of geological units and separate tectonic scales, key mineral assemblages and facies of metamorphism, temperature conditions of metamorphism, ages of metamorphism events and the massif rocks, genetic-geodynamic types of magmatic rocks. Explanatory note, attached to the map includes the large specter of scientific information. It contains characterization of the geological setting, composition and petrogenetic and geodynamic models of the massif formation. To create a geological map of the Loki crystalline massif, appropriate methodologies were applied: a sampling of rocks, GIS technology-based mapping of geological units, microscopic description of the material, composition analysis of rocks, microprobe analysis of minerals and a new interpretation of obtained data. To prepare a digital version of the map the appropriated activities were held including the creation of a common database. Finally, the design was created that includes the elaboration of legend and the final visualization of the map. The results of the study presented in the explanatory note are given below. The autochthonous gneissose quartz diorites of normal alkalinity and sub-alkaline gabbro-diorites included in them belong to different phases of magmatism. They represent “igneous” granites corresponding to mixed mantle-crustal type granites. Four tectonic plates of the allochthonous metamorphic complex–Lower Gorastskali, Sapharlo–Lok-Jandari, Moshevani, and Lower Gorastskali differ from each other by structure and degree of metamorphism. The initial rocks of these plates are formed in different geodynamic conditions and during the Early Bretonian orogeny while overthrusting due to tectonic compression they form a thick tectonic sheet. The Lower Gorastskali overthrust sheet is a fragment of ophiolitic association corresponding to the Paleotethys oceanic crust. The protolith of the ophiolitic complex basites corresponds to the tholeiitic series of basalts. The Sapharlo–Lok-Jandari overthrust sheet is metapelites, metamorphosed in conditions of greenschist facies of regional metamorphism. The regional metamorphism of Moshevani overthrust sheet crystalline schists quartzites corresponds to a range from greenschist to hornfels facies. The “mélange” is built of rock fragments and blocks of above-mentioned overthrust sheets. Sub-alkaline and normal alkaline post-metamorphic granites of the Loki crystalline massif belong to “igneous” and rarely to “sialic” and “anorogenic” types of granites.

Keywords: digital geological map, 1:50 000 scale, crystalline massif, the caucasus

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Authors: Phani Kiran, Prabodha Manas Yarlagadda

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This paper attempts to treat Shakespeare’s tragic hero, Hamlet as an existential hero who faces many dilemmas in the process of taking revenge for his father’s murder. Hamlet can be considered as a predecessor of existentialism, and Shakespeare, as a pioneer, focused on some serious existential issues in the play much before they were fully developed in 20th century. Hamlet's internal struggles reflect existential themes such as alienation, despair, and the quest for authenticity. Hamlet’s famous soliloquy, "To be, or not to be," is a quintessential expression of existential ponderings, contemplating the choice between life and death and the uncertainty of what lies beyond. Hamlet grapples with existential questions like the purpose and meaninglessness of life, the nature of morality, the inevitability of death, and the existence of an afterlife. He doubts the authenticity of appearance and the reliability of his own perceptions, highlighting the inherent ambiguity and uncertainty of existence. Overall, "Hamlet" aligns with existential philosophy by exploring the complexities of human existence, the search for meaning, and the individual's struggle to find their place in an inherently uncertain and perplexing world. The character of Hamlet and the play's exploration of existential themes continue to resonate with audiences and provoke contemplation on the nature of life and the human experience.

Keywords: to be or not to be, death, dilemmas, illusion and reality

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Authors: Roberta Martino, Viviana Ventre

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From a theoretical point of view, the relationship between the risk associated with an investment and the expected value are directly proportional, in the sense that the market allows a greater result to those who are willing to take a greater risk. However, empirical evidence proves that this relationship is distorted in the minds of investors and is perceived exactly the opposite. To deepen and understand the discrepancy between the actual actions of the investor and the theoretical predictions, this paper analyzes the essential parameters used for the valuation of financial assets with greater attention to two elements: probability and the passage of time. Although these may seem at first glance to be two distinct elements, they are closely related. In particular, the error in the theoretical description of the relationship between risk and return lies in the failure to consider the impatience that is generated in the decision-maker when events that have not yet happened occur in the decision-making context. In this context, probability loses its objective meaning and in relation to the psychological aspects of the investor, it can only be understood as the degree of confidence that the investor has in the occurrence or non-occurrence of an event. Moreover, the concept of objective probability does not consider the inter-temporality that characterizes financial activities and does not consider the condition of limited cognitive capacity of the decision maker. Cognitive psychology has made it possible to understand that the mind acts with a compromise between quality and effort when faced with very complex choices. To evaluate an event that has not yet happened, it is necessary to imagine that it happens in your head. This projection into the future requires a cognitive effort and is what differentiates choices under conditions of risk and choices under conditions of uncertainty. In fact, since the receipt of the outcome in choices under risk conditions is imminent, the mechanism of self-projection into the future is not necessary to imagine the consequence of the choice and the decision makers dwell on the objective analysis of possibilities. Financial activities, on the other hand, develop over time and the objective probability is too static to consider the anticipatory emotions that the self-projection mechanism generates in the investor. Assuming that uncertainty is inherent in valuations of events that have not yet occurred, the focus must shift from risk management to uncertainty management. Only in this way the intertemporal dimension of the decision-making environment and the haste generated by the financial market can be cautioned and considered. The work considers an extension of the prospectus theory with the temporal component with the aim of providing a description of the attitude towards risk with respect to the passage of time.

Keywords: impatience, risk aversion, subjective probability, uncertainty

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Authors: Ali Bhayani

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The article analyses determinants of the market entry modes used by corporate firms to expand internationally and explore whether higher education institutions uses the same determinants to decide on mode adopted to enter the market. Determinants like transaction costs, location advantage, idiosyncratic capabilities, isomorphic pressure to mimic, psychic distance, uncertainty, risks, the control over academic process, previous internationalisation experience and entry to homogenous markets are considered with regards to universities. A sample consisting of 40+ branch campuses from United Arab Emirates (UAE), host to highest number of branch campuses, is selected to study the determinants of the entry modes adopted. The aim of this article is not to prescribe or offer a solution for the best-available model of market entry that can be adopted by universities but rather to act as a trigger for a critical check up on universities planning to internationalize their offering. Determinants like idiosyncratic capabilities, isomorphic pressure and control over the academic process were found to be most prevalent. However, determinants like transaction cost efficiency, internationalisation experience, psychic distance, uncertainty and risks are not significant factors.

Keywords: higher education, UAE, internationalisation, market entry, international branch campuses

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