Search results for: Markov decision process

Authors: Zayed Alsulami, Asma Aldosseri, Ahmed Ezziden, Abdulrahman Alonazi

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Children are more susceptible to medication errors than adults. Medication administration process is the last stage in the medication treatment process and most of the errors detected in this stage. Little research has been undertaken about medication errors in children in the Middle East countries. This study was aimed to evaluate how the paediatric nurses adhere to the medication administration policy and also to identify any medication preparation and administration errors or any risk factors. An observational, prospective study of medication administration process from when the nurses preparing patient medication until administration stage (May to August 2014) was conducted in Saudi Arabia. Twelve paediatric nurses serving 90 paediatric patients were observed. 456 drug administered doses were evaluated. Adherence rate was variable in 7 steps out of 16 steps. Patient allergy information, dose calculation, drug expiry date were the steps in medication administration with lowest adherence rates. 63 medication preparation and administration errors were identified with error rate 13.8% of medication administrations. No potentially life-threating errors were witnessed. Few logistic and administrative factors were reported. The results showed that the medication administration policy and procedure need an urgent revision to be more sensible for nurses in practice. Nurses’ knowledge and skills regarding the medication administration process should be improved.

Keywords: medication sasfety, paediatric, medication errors, paediatric ward

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Authors: Dalia Suša Vugec

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In recent few decades, business process management (BPM) has been in focus of a great number of researchers and organizations. There are many benefits derived from the implementation of BPM in organizations. However, there has been also noticed that lately traditional BPM faces some difficulties in terms of the divide between models and their execution, lost innovations, lack of information fusioning and so on. As a result, there has been a new discipline, called social BPM, which incorporates principles of social software into the BPM. On the other hand, many researchers indicate organizational culture as a vital part of the BPM success and maturity. Therefore, the goal of this study is to investigate the current state of BPM maturity and the usage of social BPM among the organizations from Croatia, Slovenia and Austria, with the regards to the organizational culture as well. The paper presents the results of a survey conducted as part of the PROSPER project (IP-2014-09-3729), financed by Croatian Science Foundation. The results indicate differences in the level of BPM maturity, the usage of social BPM and the dominant organizational culture in the observed organizations from different countries. These differences are further discussed in the paper.

Keywords: business process management, BPM maturity, organizational culture, social BPM

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Authors: Xiang Jia, Zhijun Cheng

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The residual lifetime of a product is the operation time between the current time and the time point when the failure happens. The residual lifetime estimation is rather important in reliability analysis. To predict the residual lifetime, it is necessary to assume or verify a particular distribution that the lifetime of the product follows. And the two-parameter Weibull distribution is frequently adopted to describe the lifetime in reliability engineering. Due to the time constraint and cost reduction, a life testing experiment is usually terminated before all the units have failed. Then the censored data is usually collected. In addition, other information could also be obtained for reliability analysis. The expert judgements are considered as it is common that the experts could present some useful information concerning the reliability. Therefore, the residual lifetime is estimated for Weibull distribution by fusing the censored data and expert judgements in this paper. First, the closed-forms concerning the point estimate and confidence interval for the residual lifetime under the Weibull distribution are both presented. Next, the expert judgements are regarded as the prior information and how to determine the prior distribution of Weibull parameters is developed. For completeness, the cases that there is only one, and there are more than two expert judgements are both focused on. Further, the posterior distribution of Weibull parameters is derived. Considering that it is difficult to derive the posterior distribution of residual lifetime, a sample-based method is proposed to generate the posterior samples of Weibull parameters based on the Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) method. And these samples are used to obtain the Bayes estimation and credible interval for the residual lifetime. Finally, an illustrative example is discussed to show the application. It demonstrates that the proposed method is rather simple, satisfactory, and robust.

Keywords: expert judgements, information fusion, residual lifetime, Weibull distribution

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Authors: Nidhi Nalin

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This study is theoretical modelling of the fermentation process of glucose in agricultural wastes like discarded peaches to produce hydrogen, acetic acid, and carbon dioxide using Thermotoga neopolitana bacteria. The hydrogen gas produced in this process can be used in hydrogen fuel cells to generate power, and the fermented broth with acetic acid and salts could be utilized as salty vinegar if enough acetic acid is produced. The theoretical modelling was done using SuperPro software, and the results indicated how much sugar (discarded peaches) is required to produce both hydrogen and vinegar for the process to be profitable.

Keywords: fermentation, thermotoga, hydrogen, vinegar, biofuel

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Authors: Valentina Piric, Maja Martinovic, Zoran Barac

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The application of marketing to the domain of politics has become relevant in recent times. With this article the authors wanted to explore the issue of the current political engagement among young people in Croatia. The question is what makes young people (age 18-30) politically active in young democracies such as that of the Republic of Croatia. Therefore, the objective of this study was to discover the real or hidden motivations behind the decision to actively participate in politics among young members of the two largest political parties in the country – the Croatian Democratic Union and the Social Democratic Party of Croatia. The study expected to find that the motivation for political engagement of young people is often connected with a possible achievement of individual goals and egoistic needs such as: self-acceptance, social success, financial success, prestige, reputation, status, recognition from the others etc. It was also expected that, due to the poor economic and social situation in the country, young people feel an increasing disconnection from politics. Additionally, the authors expected to find that there is a huge potential to engage young people in the political life of the country through a proper and more interactive use of marketing communication campaigns and social media platforms, with an emphasis on highly ethical motives of political activity and their benefits to society. All respondents included in the quantitative survey (sample size [N=100]) are active in one of the two largest political parties in Croatia. The sampling and distribution of the survey occurred in the field in September 2016. The results of the survey demonstrate that in Croatia, the way young people feel about politics and act accordingly, are in fact similar to what the theory describes. The research findings reveal that young people are politically active; however, the challenge is to find a way to motivate even more young people in Croatia to actively participate in the political and democratic processes in the country and to encourage them to see additional benefits out of this practice, not only related to their individual motives, but related more to the well-being of Croatia as a country and of every member of society. The research also discovered a huge potential for political marketing communication possibilities, especially related to interactive social media. It is possible that the social media channels have a stronger influence on the decision-making process among young people when compared to groups of reference. The level of interest in politics among young Croatians varies; some of them are almost indifferent, whilst others express a serious interest in different ways to actively contribute to the political life of the country, defining a participation in the political life of their country almost as their moral obligation. However, additional observations and further research need to be conducted to get a clearer and more precise picture about the interest in politics among young people in Croatia and their social potential.

Keywords: Croatia, marketing communication, motivation, politics, young people

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Authors: Antonella Falanga, Armando Cartenì

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"Big data" refers to extremely vast and complex sets of data, encompassing extraordinarily large and intricate datasets that require specific tools for meaningful analysis and processing. These datasets can stem from diverse origins like sensors, mobile devices, online transactions, social media platforms, and more. The utilization of big data is pivotal, offering the chance to leverage vast information for substantial advantages across diverse fields, thereby enhancing comprehension, decision-making, efficiency, and fostering innovation in various domains. Big data, distinguished by its remarkable attributes of enormous volume, high velocity, diverse variety, and significant value, represent a transformative force reshaping the industry worldwide. Their pervasive impact continues to unlock new possibilities, driving innovation and advancements in technology, decision-making processes, and societal progress in an increasingly data-centric world. The use of these technologies is becoming more widespread, facilitating and accelerating operations that were once much more complicated. In particular, big data impacts across multiple sectors such as business and commerce, healthcare and science, finance, education, geography, agriculture, media and entertainment and also mobility and logistics. Within the transportation sector, which is the focus of this study, big data applications encompass a wide variety, spanning across optimization in vehicle routing, real-time traffic management and monitoring, logistics efficiency, reduction of travel times and congestion, enhancement of the overall transportation systems, but also mitigation of pollutant emissions contributing to environmental sustainability. Meanwhile, in public administration and the development of smart cities, big data aids in improving public services, urban planning, and decision-making processes, leading to more efficient and sustainable urban environments. Access to vast data reservoirs enables deeper insights, revealing hidden patterns and facilitating more precise and timely decision-making. Additionally, advancements in cloud computing and artificial intelligence (AI) have further amplified the potential of big data, enabling more sophisticated and comprehensive analyses. Certainly, utilizing big data presents various advantages but also entails several challenges regarding data privacy and security, ensuring data quality, managing and storing large volumes of data effectively, integrating data from diverse sources, the need for specialized skills to interpret analysis results, ethical considerations in data use, and evaluating costs against benefits. Addressing these difficulties requires well-structured strategies and policies to balance the benefits of big data with privacy, security, and efficient data management concerns. Building upon these premises, the current research investigates the efficacy and influence of big data by conducting an overview of the primary and recent implementations of big data in transportation systems. Overall, this research allows us to conclude that big data better provide to enhance rational decision-making for mobility choices and is imperative for adeptly planning and allocating investments in transportation infrastructures and services.

Keywords: big data, public transport, sustainable mobility, transport demand, transportation planning

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Authors: Haythem H. Abdullah, Hesham Elkady

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With the fast increase in radio frequency identification (RFID) applications such as medical recording, library management, etc., the limitation of active tags stems from its need to external batteries as well as passive or active chips. The chipless RFID tag reduces the cost to a large extent but at the expense of utilizing the spectrum. The reduction of the cost of chipless RFID is due to the absence of the chip itself. The identification is done by utilizing the spectrum in such a way that the frequency response of the tags consists of some resonance frequencies that represent the bits. The system capacity is decided by the number of resonators within the pre-specified band. It is important to find a solution to enhance the spectrum utilization when using chipless RFID. Target identification is a process that results in a decision that a specific target is present or not. Several target identification schemes are present, but one of the most successful techniques in radar target identification in the oscillatory region is the extinction pulse technique (E-Pulse). The E-Pulse technique is used to identify targets via its characteristics (natural) modes. By introducing an innovative solution for chipless RFID reader and tag designs, the spectrum utilization goes to the optimum case. In this paper, a novel capacity enhancement scheme based on the E-pulse technique is introduced to improve the performance of the chipless RFID system.

Keywords: chipless RFID, E-pulse, natural modes, resonators

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Authors: Kais Ben-Ahmed, Mhamed Ali-El-Aroui

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This paper develops a Local Generalized Linear Spatial Model (LGLSM) to describe the spatial variation of Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL) infection risk in northern and central Tunisia. The response from each region is a number of affected children less than five years of age recorded from 1996 through 2006 from Tunisian pediatric departments and treated as a poison county level data. The model includes climatic factors, namely averages of annual rainfall, extreme values of low temperatures in winter and high temperatures in summer to characterize the climate of each region according to each continentality index, the pluviometric quotient of Emberger (Q2) to characterize bioclimatic regions and component for residual extra-poison variation. The statistical results show the progressive increase in the number of affected children in regions with high continentality index and low mean yearly rainfull. On the other hand, an increase in pluviometric quotient of Emberger contributed to a significant increase in VL incidence rate. When compared with the original GLSM, Bayesian locally modeling is improvement and gives a better approximation of the Tunisian VL risk estimation. According to the Bayesian approach inference, we use vague priors for all parameters model and Markov Chain Monte Carlo method.

Keywords: generalized linear spatial model, local model, extra-poisson variation, continentality index, visceral leishmaniasis, Tunisia

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Authors: D. Garg, S. Luthra, A. Haleem

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Due to growing concern about environmental and social consequences throughout the world, a need has been felt to incorporate sustainability concepts in conventional manufacturing. This paper is an attempt to identify and evaluate drivers in implementing sustainable manufacturing in Indian context. Nine possible drivers for successful implementation of sustainable manufacturing have been identified from extensive review. Further, Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) approach has been utilized to evaluate and categorize these identified drivers for implementing sustainable manufacturing in to the cause and effect groups. Five drivers (Societal Pressure and Public Concerns; Regulations and Government Policies; Top Management Involvement, Commitment and Support; Effective Strategies and Activities towards Socially Responsible Manufacturing and Market Trends) have been categorized into the cause group and four drivers (Holistic View in Manufacturing Systems; Supplier Participation; Building Sustainable culture in Organization; and Corporate Image and Benefits) have been categorized into the effect group. “Societal Pressure and Public Concerns” has been found the most critical driver and “Corporate Image and Benefits” as least critical or the most easily influenced driver to implementing sustainable manufacturing in Indian context. This paper may surely help practitioners in better understanding of these drivers and their priorities towards effective implementation of sustainable manufacturing.

Keywords: drivers, decision making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL), India, sustainable manufacturing

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Authors: Johannes Full, Martin Reisinger, Alexander Sauer, Robert Miehe

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The use of biogenic residues for the biotechnological production of chemical energy carriers for electricity and heat generation as well as for mobile applications is an important lever for the shift away from fossil fuels towards a carbon dioxide neutral post-fossil future. A multitude of promising biotechnological processes needs, therefore, to be compared against each other. For this purpose, a multi-objective target system and a corresponding methodology for the evaluation of the underlying key figures are presented in this paper, which can serve as a basis for decisionmaking for companies and promotional policy measures. The methodology considers in this paper the economic and ecological potential of bio-hydrogen production using the example of hydrogen production from fruit and milk production waste with the purple bacterium R. rubrum (so-called dark photosynthesis process) for the first time. The substrate used in this cost-effective and scalable process is fructose from waste material and waste deposits. Based on an estimation of the biomass potential of such fructose residues, the new methodology is used to compare different scenarios for the production and usage of bio-hydrogen through the considered process. In conclusion, this paper presents, at the example of the promising dark photosynthesis process, a methodology to evaluate the ecological and economic potential of biotechnological production of bio-hydrogen from residues and waste.

Keywords: biofuel, hydrogen, R. rubrum, bioenergy

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Authors: Anggi Ristiyana Puspita Sari, Suyanta

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To recognize the importance of the development of critical thinking and science process skills, the instrument should give attention to the characteristics of chemistry. Therefore, constructing an accurate instrument for measuring those skills is important. However, the integrated instrument assessment is limited in number. The purpose of this study is to validate an integrated assessment instrument for measuring students’ critical thinking and science process skills on acid base matter. The development model of the test instrument adapted McIntire model. The sample consisted of 392 second grade high school students in the academic year of 2015/2016 in Yogyakarta. Exploratory factor analysis (EFA) was conducted to explore construct validity, whereas content validity was substantiated by Aiken’s formula. The result shows that the KMO test is 0.714 which indicates sufficient items for each factor and the Bartlett test is significant (a significance value of less than 0.05). Furthermore, content validity coefficient which is based on 8 expert judgments is obtained at 0.85. The findings support the integrated assessment instrument to measure critical thinking and science process skills on acid base matter.

Keywords: acid base matter, critical thinking skills, integrated assessment instrument, science process skills, validity

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Authors: K. Malak, A. Nourah, S.Liyakathunisa

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Nowadays, healthcare services are facing many challenges since they are becoming more complex and more needed. Every detail of a patient’s interactions with health care providers is maintained in Electronic Health Records (ECR) and Healthcare information systems (HIS). However, most of the existing systems are often focused on documenting what happens in manual health care process, rather than providing the highest quality patient care. Healthcare business processes and stakeholders can no longer rely on manual processes, to provide better patient care and efficient utilization of resources, Healthcare processes must be automated wherever it is possible. In this research, a detail survey and analysis is performed on the existing health care systems in Saudi Arabia, and an automated smart medical healthcare business process model is proposed. The business process management methods and rules are followed in discovering, collecting information, analysis, redesign, implementation and performance improvement analysis in terms of time and cost. From the simulation results, it is evident that our proposed smart medical records system can improve the quality of the service by reducing the time and cost and increasing efficiency

Keywords: business process management, electronic health records, efficiency, cost, time

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Authors: Mandeep Kumar, Hari Singh

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The effective optimization of machining process parameters affects dramatically the cost and production time of machined components as well as the quality of the final products. This paper presents the optimization aspects of a Wire Electrical Discharge Machining operation using Inconel X-750 as work material. The objective considered in this study is minimization of the dimensional deviation. Six input process parameters of WEDM namely spark gap voltage, pulse-on time, pulse-off time, wire feed rate, peak current and wire tension, were chosen as variables to study the process performance. Taguchi's design of experiments methodology has been used for planning and designing the experiments. The analysis of variance was carried out for raw data as well as for signal to noise ratio. Four input parameters and one two-factor interaction have been found to be statistically significant for their effects on the response of interest. The confirmation experiments were also performed for validating the predicted results.

Keywords: ANOVA, DOE, inconel, machining, optimization

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Authors: Olivia Rybak-Karkosz

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This paper aims to present the results of scientific research on family resemblance in the handwriting of painters. Such a problem is known in handwriting analysis, but it was never a research subject in the scope of painters' signatures on works of art. For this research, the author chose Jacek, and Rafał Malczewski (father and son) as many of their paintings are in museums, and most of them are signed. The aim was to create a catalogue of traits similar to the handwriting of both artists. Such data could be helpful for the expert’s opinion in the decision-making process to establish whether the signature is authentic and, if so, whether it is the artist whose signature is analysed, not the other family member. There are known examples of relatives of the artists who signed their works. Many of them were artists themselves. For instance Andrzej Wróblewski’s mother, Krystyna was a printmaker. To save his legacy, she signed many of her son’s works after his death using his name. This research methodology consisted of completing representative samples of signatures of both artists, which were collected in selected Polish museums. Then a catalogue of traits was created using a forensic handwriting graphic-comparative method (graphic method). The paper contains a concluding statement that it could be one of the elements of research in an expert’s analysis of the authenticity of the signature on paintings.

Keywords: artist’s signatures, authenticity of an artwork, forensic handwriting analysis, graphic-comparative method

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Authors: Reina Kawase

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Japan set the goal of 80% reduction in GHG emissions by 2050. To consider countermeasures for reducing GHG emission, the production estimation of energy intensive materials, such as steel, is essential. About 50% of steel production is exported in Japan, so it is necessary to consider steel production including export. Steel productions from 2005-2050 in Japan were estimated under various global assumptions based on combination of scenarios such as goods trade scenarios and steel making process selection scenarios. Process selection scenarios decide volume of steel production by process (basic oxygen furnace and electric arc furnace) with considering steel consumption projection, supply-demand balance of steel, and scrap surplus. The range of steel production by process was analyzed. Maximum steel production was estimated under the scenario which consumes scrap in domestic steel production at maximum level. In 2035, steel production reaches 149 million ton because of increase in electric arc furnace steel. However, it decreases towards 2050 and amounts to 120 million ton, which is almost same as a current level. Minimum steel production is under the scenario which assumes technology progress in steel making and supply-demand balance consideration in each region. Steel production decreases from base year and is 44 million ton in 2050.

Keywords: goods trade scenario, steel making process selection scenario, steel production, global warming

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Authors: Md. Wasiul Islam, Md. Jamius Shams Sowrov

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The Sundarbans is the largest single tract of mangrove forest in the world. This is located in the southwest corner of Bangladesh. This is a unique ecosystem which is a great breeding and nursing ground for a great biodiversity. It supports the livelihood of about 3.5 million coastal dwellers and also protects the coastal belt and inland areas from various natural calamities. Historically, the management of the Sundarbans was controlled by the Bangladesh Forest Department following top-down approach without the involvement of local communities. Such fence and fining-based blue-print approach was not effective to protect the forest which caused Sundarbans to degrade severely in the recent past. Fifty percent of the total tree cover has been lost in the last 30 years. Therefore, local multi-stakeholder based bottom-up co-management approach was introduced at some of the parts of the Sundarbans in 2006 to improve the biodiversity status by enhancing the protection level of the forest. Various co-management organizations were introduced under co-management approach where the local community people could actively involve in various activities related to the management and welfare of the Sundarbans including the decision-making process to achieve the goal. From this backdrop, the objective of the study was to assess the performance of co-management organizations to facilitate sustainable management of the Sundarbans mangrove forests. The qualitative study followed face-to-face interview to collect data using two sets of semi-structured questionnaires. A total of 40 respondents participated in the research that was from eight villagers under two forest ranges. 32 representatives from the local communities as well as 8 official representatives involved in co-management approach were interviewed using snowball sampling technique. The study shows that the co-management approach improved governance system of the Sundarbans through active participation of the local community people and their interactions with the officials via the platform of co-management organizations. It facilitated accountability and transparency system to some extent through following some formal and informal rules and regulations. It also improved the power structure of the management process by fostering local empowerment process particularly the women. Moreover, people were able to learn from their interactions with and within the co-management organizations as well as interventions improved environmental awareness and promoted social learning. The respondents considered good governance as the most important factor for achieving the goal of sustainable management and biodiversity conservation of the Sundarbans. The success of co-management planning process also depends on the active and functional participation of different stakeholders including the local communities where co-management organizations were considered as the most functional platform. However, the governance system was also facing various challenges which resulted in barriers to the sustainable management of the Sundarbans mangrove forest. But still there were some members involved in illegal forest operations and created obstacles against sustainable management of the Sundarbans. Respondents recommended greater patronization from the government, financial and logistic incentives for alternative income generation opportunities with effective participatory monitoring and evaluation system to improve sustainable management of the Sundarbans.

Keywords: Bangladesh, co-management approach, co-management organizations, governance, Sundarbans, sustainable management

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Authors: Supattra Pranee

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The objectives of this research were to study the product development process to obtain a community standard product certificate and to set a guideline for the product development process to obtain the community product certificate. Focus group discussion was conducted with many experts in the field, local government officials, and representatives from local producers in Bangkontee district. The findings revealed that there were eight important processes to obtain the community product certificate: 1) prepare document, 2) submit the document, 3) set up an appointment for onsite inspection, 4) onsite inspection and sample collections, 5) evaluate samples, 6) obtain test result, and 7) obtain certificate.

Keywords: perceived values, tourist destination, visiting, product development

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Authors: Ratna Dewi Kusumaningtyas, Riris Pristiyani, Heny Dewajani

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Biodiesel is commonly produced via the two main routes, i.e. the transesterification of triglycerides and the esterification of free fatty acid (FFA) using short-chain alcohols. Both the two routes have drawback in term of the side product yielded during the reaction. Transesterification reaction of triglyceride results in glycerol as side product. On the other hand, FFA esterification brings in water as side product. Both glycerol and water in the biodiesel production are managed as waste. Hence, a separation process is necessary to obtain a high purity biodiesel. Meanwhile, separation processes is generally the most capital and energy intensive part in industrial process. Therefore, to reduce the separation process, it is essential to produce biodiesel via an alternative route eliminating glycerol or water side-products. In this work, biodiesel synthesis was performed using a glycerol-free process through chemical interesterification of jatropha oil with ethyl acetate in the presence on sodium acetate catalyst. By using this method, triacetine, which is known as fuel bio-additive, is yielded instead of glycerol. This research studied the effects of catalyst concentration on the jatropha oil interesterification process in the range of 0.5 – 1.25% w/w oil. The reaction temperature and molar ratio of oil to ethyl acetate were varied at 50, 60, and 70°C, and 1:6, 1:9, 1:15, 1:30, and 1:60, respectively. The reaction time was evaluated from 0 to 8 hours. It was revealed that the best yield was obtained with the catalyst concentration of 0.5%, reaction temperature of 70 °C, molar ratio of oil to ethyl acetate at 1:60, at 6 hours reaction time.

Keywords: biodiesel, interesterification, glycerol-free, triacetine, jatropha oil

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Authors: Misra Ayse Adsiz, Selim Selvi

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In today's world, technology is competing with time. In order to catch up with the world's companies and adapt quickly to the changes, it is necessary to speed up the processes and keep pace with the rate of change of the technology. The missile system design processes, which are handled with classical methods, keep behind in this race. Because customer requirements are not clear, and demands are changing again and again in the design process. Therefore, in the system design process, a methodology suitable for the missile system design dynamics has been investigated and the processes used for catching up the era are examined. When commonly used design processes are analyzed, it is seen that any one of them is dynamic enough for today’s conditions. So a hybrid design process is established. After a detailed review of the existing processes, it is decided to focus on the Scrum Framework and Agile Philosophy. Scrum is a process framework. It is focused on to develop software and handling change management with rapid methods. In addition, agile philosophy is intended to respond quickly to changes. In this study, it is aimed to integrate Scrum framework and agile philosophy, which are the most appropriate ways for rapid production and change adaptation, into the missile system design process. With this approach, it is aimed that the design team, involved in the system design processes, is in communication with the customer and provide an iterative approach in change management. These methods, which are currently being used in the software industry, have been integrated with the product design process. A team is created for system design process. The roles of Scrum Team are realized with including the customer. A scrum team consists of the product owner, development team and scrum master. Scrum events, which are short, purposeful and time-limited, are organized to serve for coordination rather than long meetings. Instead of the classic system design methods used in product development studies, a missile design is made with this blended method. With the help of this design approach, it is become easier to anticipate changing customer demands, produce quick solutions to demands and combat uncertainties in the product development process. With the feedback of the customer who included in the process, it is worked towards marketing optimization, design and financial optimization.

Keywords: agile, design, missile, scrum

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Authors: Sai Sudarshan, Harsh Vyas, Riddhiman Sherlekar

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The oil and gas industry has been unwilling to adopt stochastic definition of reserves. Nevertheless, Monte Carlo simulation methods have gained acceptance by engineers, geoscientists and other professionals who want to evaluate prospects or otherwise analyze problems that involve uncertainty. One of the common applications of Monte Carlo simulation is the estimation of recoverable hydrocarbon from a reservoir.Monte Carlo Simulation makes use of random samples of parameters or inputs to explore the behavior of a complex system or process. It finds application whenever one needs to make an estimate, forecast or decision where there is significant uncertainty. First, the project focuses on performing Monte-Carlo Simulation on a given data set using U. S Department of Energy’s MonteCarlo Software, which is a freeware e&p tool. Further, an algorithm for simulation has been developed for MATLAB and program performs simulation by prompting user for input distributions and parameters associated with each distribution (i.e. mean, st.dev, min., max., most likely, etc.). It also prompts user for desired probability for which reserves are to be calculated. The algorithm so developed and tested in MATLAB further finds implementation in Python where existing libraries on statistics and graph plotting have been imported to generate better outcome. With PyQt designer, codes for a simple graphical user interface have also been written. The graph so plotted is then validated with already available results from U.S DOE MonteCarlo Software.

Keywords: simulation, probability, confidence interval, sensitivity analysis

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Authors: Anishur Rahman, Maria Areias, Diogo Simões, Ana Figeuiredo, Filipa Figueiredo, João Nunes

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The circular economy (CE) has gained increased awareness among academics, businesses, and decision-makers as it stimulates resource circularity in the production and consumption systems. A large epistemological study has explored the principles of CE, but scant attention eagerly focused on analysing how CE is evaluated, consented to, and enforced using economic metabolism data and business intelligent framework. Economic metabolism involves the ongoing exchange of materials and energy within and across socio-economic systems and requires the assessment of vast amounts of data to provide quantitative analysis related to effective resource management. Limited concern, the present work has focused on the regional flows pilot region from Portugal. By addressing this gap, this study aims to promote eco-innovation and sustainability in the regions of Intermunicipal Communities Região de Coimbra, Viseu Dão Lafões and Beiras e Serra da Estrela, using this data to find precise synergies in terms of material flows and give companies a competitive advantage in form of valuable waste destinations, access to new resources and new markets, cost reduction and risk sharing benefits. In our work, emphasis on applying artificial intelligence (AI) and, more specifically, on implementing state-of-the-art deep learning algorithms is placed, contributing to construction a business intelligent approach. With the emergence of new approaches generally highlighted under the sub-heading of AI and machine learning (ML), the methods for statistical analysis of complex and uncertain production systems are facing significant changes. Therefore, various definitions of AI and its differences from traditional statistics are presented, and furthermore, ML is introduced to identify its place in data science and the differences in topics such as big data analytics and in production problems that using AI and ML are identified. A lifecycle-based approach is then taken to analyse the use of different methods in each phase to identify the most useful technologies and unifying attributes of AI in manufacturing. Most of macroeconomic metabolisms models are mainly direct to contexts of large metropolis, neglecting rural territories, so within this project, a dynamic decision support model coupled with artificial intelligence tools and information platforms will be developed, focused on the reality of these transition zones between the rural and urban. Thus, a real decision support tool is under development, which will surpass the scientific developments carried out to date and will allow to overcome imitations related to the availability and reliability of data.

Keywords: circular economy, artificial intelligence, economic metabolisms, machine learning

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Authors: Wanhyun Cho, Soonja Kang, Sangkyoon Kim, Soonyoung Park

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In this paper, we propose a novel inference algorithm for the multi-class Gaussian process classification model that can be used in the field of human behavior recognition. This algorithm can drive simultaneously both a posterior distribution of a latent function and estimators of hyper-parameters in a Gaussian process classification model with multi-class. Our algorithm is based on the Laplace approximation (LA) technique and variational EM framework. This is performed in two steps: called expectation and maximization steps. First, in the expectation step, using the Bayesian formula and LA technique, we derive approximately the posterior distribution of the latent function indicating the possibility that each observation belongs to a certain class in the Gaussian process classification model. Second, in the maximization step, using a derived posterior distribution of latent function, we compute the maximum likelihood estimator for hyper-parameters of a covariance matrix necessary to define prior distribution for latent function. These two steps iteratively repeat until a convergence condition satisfies. Moreover, we apply the proposed algorithm with human action classification problem using a public database, namely, the KTH human action data set. Experimental results reveal that the proposed algorithm shows good performance on this data set.

Keywords: bayesian rule, gaussian process classification model with multiclass, gaussian process prior, human action classification, laplace approximation, variational EM algorithm

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Authors: Rodolfo Lorbieski, Silvia Modesto Nassar

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Many supervised machine learning tasks require decision making across numerous different classes. Multi-class classification has several applications, such as face recognition, text recognition and medical diagnostics. The objective of this article is to analyze an adapted method of Stacking in multi-class problems, which combines ensembles within the ensemble itself. For this purpose, a training similar to Stacking was used, but with three levels, where the final decision-maker (level 2) performs its training by combining outputs from the tree-based pair of meta-classifiers (level 1) from Bayesian families. These are in turn trained by pairs of base classifiers (level 0) of the same family. This strategy seeks to promote diversity among the ensembles forming the meta-classifier level 2. Three performance measures were used: (1) accuracy, (2) area under the ROC curve, and (3) time for three factors: (a) datasets, (b) experiments and (c) levels. To compare the factors, ANOVA three-way test was executed for each performance measure, considering 5 datasets by 25 experiments by 3 levels. A triple interaction between factors was observed only in time. The accuracy and area under the ROC curve presented similar results, showing a double interaction between level and experiment, as well as for the dataset factor. It was concluded that level 2 had an average performance above the other levels and that the proposed method is especially efficient for multi-class problems when compared to binary problems.

Keywords: stacking, multi-layers, ensemble, multi-class

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Authors: Nils Mueller, Gregor Herz, Erik Reichelt, Matthias Jahn

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In the context of climate change, the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in all economic sectors is considered to be an important factor in order to meet the demands of a sustainable energy system. The steel industry as one of the large industrial CO₂ emitters is currently highly dependent on fossil resources. In order to reduce coke consumption and thereby CO₂ emissions while still being able to further utilize existing blast furnaces, the possibility of including a direct reduction process (DRP) into a fully integrated steel mill was investigated. Therefore, a blast furnace model, derived from literature data and implemented in Aspen Plus, was used to analyze the impact of DRI in the blast furnace process. Furthermore, a state-of-the-art DRP was modeled to investigate the possibility of substituting the reducing agent natural gas with hydrogen. A sensitivity analysis was carried out in order to find the boundary percentage of hydrogen as a reducing agent without penalty to the DRI quality. Lastly, the two modeled process steps were combined to form a route of producing pig iron. By varying boundary conditions of the DRP while recording the CO₂ emissions of the two process steps, the overall potential for the reduction of CO₂ emissions was estimated. Within the simulated range, a maximum reduction of CO₂ emissions of 23.5% relative to typical emissions of a blast furnace could be determined.

Keywords: blast furnace, CO₂ mitigation, DRI, hydrogen

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Authors: Lauren Freed

Abstract:

This research proposal outlines an examination of homeschool oversight in the Massachusetts educational system amid the backdrop of ideological differences between various parties with contributing interests. This mixed methodology study will follow an interpretive policy research approach, involving the use of existing data, surveys, and focus groups. The aim is to capture distinct sets of meanings, values, feelings, and beliefs by principal stakeholders, while exploring the ways in which they/each interact with, interpret, and implement homeschool guidelines set forth by the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court Decision Care and Protection of Charles (1987). This analysis will identify and contextualize the attitudes, administrative choices, financial implications, and educational impacts that result from the process and practice of enacting current homeschool oversight policy in Massachusetts. The following question will guide this study: How do districts, homeschooling parents, and Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education (DESE) regulate, fund, collect, interpret, implement and report Massachusetts homeschool oversight policy? The resulting analysis will produce a unique and original baseline snapshot of qualitative and quantifiable point-in-time data based on the registered homeschool population in the state of Massachusetts.

Keywords: alternative education, homeschooling, home education, home schooling policy

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Authors: Muhtasim Shafi Kader, Fizar Ahmed, Annesha Acharjee

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Machine learning and data mining are crucial in health care, as well as medical information and detection. Machine learning approaches are now being utilized to improve awareness of a variety of critical health issues, including diabetes detection, neuron cell tumor diagnosis, COVID 19 identification, and so on. Parkinson’s disease is basically a disease for our senior citizens in Bangladesh. Parkinson's Disease indications often seem progressive and get worst with time. People got affected trouble walking and communicating with the condition advances. Patients can also have psychological and social vagaries, nap problems, hopelessness, reminiscence loss, and weariness. Parkinson's disease can happen in both men and women. Though men are affected by the illness at a proportion that is around partial of them are women. In this research, we have to get out the accurate ML algorithm to find out the disease with a predictable dataset and the model of the following machine learning classifiers. Therefore, nine ML classifiers are secondhand to portion study to use machine learning approaches like as follows, Naive Bayes, Adaptive Boosting, Bagging Classifier, Decision Tree Classifier, Random Forest classifier, XBG Classifier, K Nearest Neighbor Classifier, Support Vector Machine Classifier, and Gradient Boosting Classifier are used.

Keywords: naive bayes, adaptive boosting, bagging classifier, decision tree classifier, random forest classifier, XBG classifier, k nearest neighbor classifier, support vector classifier, gradient boosting classifier

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Authors: Mao Ju

Abstract:

The system of general counsel (GC) is an important governance structure designed for the construction of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) under the rule of law. This article is based on the setting of mergers and acquisitions (M&As) and takes the efficiency of M&As to examine the implementation effect of the system of GC for SOEs. Research has found that: (1) companies implementing the system of GC for SOEs have higher efficiency in M&As, manifested in better operational and market performance, and this effect depends on the professional ability and power of the GC. This indicates that the GC of SOEs has played a positive role in the decision-making process of M&As, which helps to improve the efficiency of M&As. (2) The impact of the GC of SOEs on the efficiency of M&As is heterogeneous, and this positive effect is mainly reflected in local and commercial SOEs. (3) The path of this impact is that the GC of SOEs can help reduce ineffective M&As in advance, enhance the ability to integrate M&As after the fact and reduce the risk of goodwill impairment and bankruptcy. This article reveals the impact of the construction of SOEs under the rule of law with the system of GC as the core of M&As activities, providing intuitive evidence for the implementation effect of the GC of SOEs. The research conclusion has important practical guiding value for comprehensively deepening the construction of the rule of SOEs under the rule of law and writing a good chapter on the Chinese path to modernization of SOEs.

Keywords: the system of general counsel, merger and acquisition efficiency, state-owned enterprises, mergers and acquisitions

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Authors: Marinel Dayawon

Abstract:

Student participation in classroom activities is vital in the teaching- learning the process as it develops self-confidence, social relationships and good academic performance of students. It is the teacher’s empathetic manner and creativity to create solutions that encourage teamwork and mutual support while dropping the academic competition within the class that hinder every shy student to walk with courage and talk with conviction because they consider their ideas, weak, as compared to the bright students. This study aimed to explore the different design thinking strategies that will change the mindset of shy students in classroom activities, maximizing their participation in all given tasks while sharing their views through ideation and providing them a wider world through compromise agreement within the members of the group, sensitivity to one’s idea, thus, arriving at a collective decision in the development of a prototype that indicates improvement in their classroom involvement. The study used the qualitative type of research. Triangulation is done through participant observation, focus group discussion and interview, documented through photos and videos. The respondents were the second- year Bachelor of Secondary Education students of the Institute of Teacher Education at Isabela State University- Cauayan City Campus. The result of the study revealed that reticent students when involved in game activities through a slap and tap method, writing their clustered ideas, using sticky notes is excited in sharing ideas as it doesn’t use oral communication. It is also observed after three weeks of using the design thinking strategies; shy students volunteer as secretary, rapporteur or group leader in the team- building activities as it represents the ideas of the heterogeneous group, removing the individual identity of the ideas. Superior students learned to listen to the ideas of the reticent students and involved them in the prototyping process of designing a remediation program for high school students showing reticence in the classroom, making their experience as a benchmark. The strategies made a 360- degrees transformation of the shy students, producing their journal log, in their journey to being open. Thus, faculty members are now adopting the design thinking approach.

Keywords: design thinking activities, qualitative, reticent students, Isabela, Philippines

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Authors: P. Altay, G. Kartal, B. Kizilkaya, S. Kahraman, N. C. Gursoy

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Biopolishing is applied to remove the fuzz or pills on the fiber or fabric surface which will reduce its tendency to pill or fuzz after repetitive launderings. After biopolishing process, the fuzzes ripped by cellulase enzymes cannot be thoroughly removed from fabric surface, they remain on the fabric or fiber surface; accordingly disturb the user and lead to decrease in productivity of drying process. The main objective of this study is to develop a method for removing weakened fuzz fibers and surface pills from biofinished fabric surface before drying process. Fuzzes in the lattice structure of fabric were completely removed from the internal structure of the fabric by air blowing. The presence of fuzzes leads to problems with formation of pilling and faded appearance; the removal of fuzzes from the fabric results in reduced tendency to pill formation, cleaner, smoother and softer surface, improved handling properties of fabric with maintaining original color.

Keywords: biopolishing, fuzz fiber, weakened fiber, biofinished cotton fabric

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Authors: Cindy Sithole, Didier Nyembwe, Peter Olubambi

Abstract:

The sand casting process involves pattern making, mould making, metal pouring and shake out. Every step in the sand moulding process is very critical for production of good quality castings. However, waste generated during the sand moulding operation and lack of quality are matters that influences performance inefficiencies and lack of competitiveness in South African foundries. Defects produced from the sand moulding process are only visible in the final product (casting) which results in increased number of scrap, reduced sales and increases cost in the foundry. The purpose of this Research is to propose six sigma technique (DMAIC, Define, Measure, Analyze, Improve and Control) intervention in sand moulding foundries and to reduce variation caused by deficiencies in the sand moulding process in South African foundries. Its objective is to create sustainability and enhance productivity in the South African foundry industry. Six sigma is a data driven method to process improvement that aims to eliminate variation in business processes using statistical control methods .Six sigma focuses on business performance improvement through quality initiative using the seven basic tools of quality by Ishikawa. The objectives of six sigma are to eliminate features that affects productivity, profit and meeting customers’ demands. Six sigma has become one of the most important tools/techniques for attaining competitive advantage. Competitive advantage for sand casting foundries in South Africa means improved plant maintenance processes, improved product quality and proper utilization of resources especially scarce resources. Defects such as sand inclusion, Flashes and sand burn on were some of the defects that were identified as resulting from the sand moulding process inefficiencies using six sigma technique. The courses were we found to be wrong design of the mould due to the pattern used and poor ramming of the moulding sand in a foundry. Six sigma tools such as the voice of customer, the Fishbone, the voice of the process and process mapping were used to define the problem in the foundry and to outline the critical to quality elements. The SIPOC (Supplier Input Process Output Customer) Diagram was also employed to ensure that the material and process parameters were achieved to ensure quality improvement in a foundry. The process capability of the sand moulding process was measured to understand the current performance to enable improvement. The Expected results of this research are; reduced sand moulding process variation, increased productivity and competitive advantage.

Keywords: defects, foundries, quality improvement, sand moulding, six sigma (DMAIC)

Procedia PDF Downloads 191