Search results for: uncertainty reduction
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 5643

Search results for: uncertainty reduction

3663 Fractal-Wavelet Based Techniques for Improving the Artificial Neural Network Models

Authors: Reza Bazargan lari, Mohammad H. Fattahi

Abstract:

Natural resources management including water resources requires reliable estimations of time variant environmental parameters. Small improvements in the estimation of environmental parameters would result in grate effects on managing decisions. Noise reduction using wavelet techniques is an effective approach for pre-processing of practical data sets. Predictability enhancement of the river flow time series are assessed using fractal approaches before and after applying wavelet based pre-processing. Time series correlation and persistency, the minimum sufficient length for training the predicting model and the maximum valid length of predictions were also investigated through a fractal assessment.

Keywords: wavelet, de-noising, predictability, time series fractal analysis, valid length, ANN

Procedia PDF Downloads 353
3662 Curvelet Features with Mouth and Face Edge Ratios for Facial Expression Identification

Authors: S. Kherchaoui, A. Houacine

Abstract:

This paper presents a facial expression recognition system. It performs identification and classification of the seven basic expressions; happy, surprise, fear, disgust, sadness, anger, and neutral states. It consists of three main parts. The first one is the detection of a face and the corresponding facial features to extract the most expressive portion of the face, followed by a normalization of the region of interest. Then calculus of curvelet coefficients is performed with dimensionality reduction through principal component analysis. The resulting coefficients are combined with two ratios; mouth ratio and face edge ratio to constitute the whole feature vector. The third step is the classification of the emotional state using the SVM method in the feature space.

Keywords: facial expression identification, curvelet coefficient, support vector machine (SVM), recognition system

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3661 Implementation of Integrated Multi-Channel Analysis of Surface Waves and Waveform Inversion Techniques for Seismic Hazard Estimation with Emphasis on Associated Uncertainty: A Case Study at Zafarana Wind Turbine Towers Farm, Egypt

Authors: Abd El-Aziz Khairy Abd El-Aal, Yuji Yagi, Heba Kamal

Abstract:

In this study, an integrated multi-channel analysis of Surface Waves (MASW) technique is applied to explore the geotechnical parameters of subsurface layers at the Zafarana wind farm. Moreover, a seismic hazard procedure based on the extended deterministic technique is used to estimate the seismic hazard load for the investigated area. The study area includes many active fault systems along the Gulf of Suez that cause many moderate and large earthquakes. Overall, the seismic activity of the area has recently become better understood following the use of new waveform inversion methods and software to develop accurate focal mechanism solutions for recent recorded earthquakes around the studied area. These earthquakes resulted in major stress-drops in the Eastern desert and the Gulf of Suez area. These findings have helped to reshape the understanding of the seismotectonic environment of the Gulf of Suez area, which is a perplexing tectonic domain. Based on the collected new information and data, this study uses an extended deterministic approach to re-examine the seismic hazard for the Gulf of Suez region, particularly the wind turbine towers at Zafarana Wind Farm and its vicinity. Alternate seismic source and magnitude-frequency relationships were combined with various indigenous attenuation relationships, adapted within a logic tree formulation, to quantify and project the regional exposure on a set of hazard maps. We select two desired exceedance probabilities (10 and 20%) that any of the applied scenarios may exceed the largest median ground acceleration. The ground motion was calculated at 50th, 84th percentile levels.

Keywords: MASW, seismic hazard, wind turbine towers, Zafarana wind farm

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3660 Producing Fertilizers of Increased Environmental and Agrochemical Efficiency via Application of Plant-available Inorganic Coatings

Authors: Andrey Norov

Abstract:

Reduction of inefficient losses of nutrients when using mineral fertilizers is a very important and urgent challenge, which is of both economic and environmental significance. The loss of nutrients to the environment leads to the release of greenhouse gases, eutrophication of water bodies, soil salinization and degradation, and other undesirable phenomena. This report focuses on slow and controlled release fertilizers produced through the application of inorganic coatings, which make the released nutrients plant-available. There are shown the advantages of these fertilizers their improved physical and chemical properties, as well as the effect of the coatings on yield growth and on the degree of nutrient efficiency. This type of fertilizers is an alternative to other polymer-coated fertilizers and is more ecofriendly. The production method is protected by the Russian patent.

Keywords: coatings, controlled release, fertilizer, nutrients, nutrient efficiency, yield increase

Procedia PDF Downloads 74
3659 Lies and Pretended Fairness of Police Officers in Sharing

Authors: Eitan Elaad

Abstract:

The current study aimed to examine lying and pretended fairness by police personnel in sharing situations. Forty Israeli police officers and 40 laypeople from the community, all males, self-assessed their lie-telling ability, rated the frequency of their lies, evaluated the acceptability of lying, and indicated using rational and intuitive thinking while lying. Next, according to the ultimatum game procedure, participants were asked to share 100 points with an imagined target, either a male policeman or a male non-policeman. Participants allocated points to the target person bearing in mind that the other person must accept or reject their offer. Participants' goal was to retain as many points as possible, and to this end, they could tell the target person that fewer than 100 points were available for distribution. We defined concealment or lying as the difference between the available 100 points and the sum of points designated for sharing. Results indicated that police officers lied less to their fellow police targets than non-police targets, whereas laypeople lied less to non-police targets than imagined police targets. The ratio between the points offered to the imagined target person and the points endowed by the participant as available for sharing defined pretended fairness.Enhanced pretended fairness indicates higher motivation to display fair sharing even if the fair sharing is fictitious. Police officers presented higher pretended fairness to police targets than laypeople, whereas laypeople set off more fairness to non-police targets than police officers. We discussed the results concerning occupation solidarity and loyalty among police personnel. Specifically, police work involves uncertainty, danger and risk, coercive authority, and the use of force, which isolates the police from the community and dictates strong bonds of solidarity between police personnel. No wonder police officers shared more points (lied less) to fellow police targets than non-police targets. On the other hand, police legitimacy or the belief that the police are acting honestly in the best interest of the citizens constitutes citizens' attitudes toward the police. The relatively low number of points shared for distribution by laypeople to police targets indicates difficulties with the legitimacy of the Israeli police.

Keywords: lying, fairness, police solidarity, police legitimacy, sharing, ultimatum game

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3658 Heat Transfer from Block Heat Sources Mounted on the Wall of a 3-D Cabinet to Ambient Natural Convective Air Stream

Authors: J. C. Cheng, Y. L. Tsay, Z. D. Chan, C. H. Yang

Abstract:

In this study the physical system under consideration is a three-dimensional (3-D) cabinet with arrays of block heat sources mounted on one of the walls of the cabinet. The block heat sources dissipate heat to the cabinet surrounding through the conjugate conduction and natural convection. The results illustrate that the difference in hot spot temperatures of the system (θH) for the situations with and without consideration of thermal interaction is higher for smaller Rayleigh number (Ra), and can be up to 94.73% as Ra=10^5. In addition, the heat transfer characteristics depends strongly on the dimensionless heat conductivity of cabinet wall (Kwf), heat conductivity of block (Kpf) and length of cabinet (Ax). The maximum reduction in θH is 70.01% when Kwf varies from 10 to 1000, and it is 30.07% for Ax from 0.5 to 1. While the hot spot temperature of system is not sensitive to the cabinet angle (Φ).

Keywords: block heat sources, 3-D cabinet, thermal interaction, heat transfer

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3657 Evaluating Robustness of Conceptual Rainfall-runoff Models under Climate Variability in Northern Tunisia

Authors: H. Dakhlaoui, D. Ruelland, Y. Tramblay, Z. Bargaoui

Abstract:

To evaluate the impact of climate change on water resources at the catchment scale, not only future projections of climate are necessary but also robust rainfall-runoff models that are able to be fairly reliable under changing climate conditions. This study aims at assessing the robustness of three conceptual rainfall-runoff models (GR4j, HBV and IHACRES) on five basins in Northern Tunisia under long-term climate variability. Their robustness was evaluated according to a differential split sample test based on a climate classification of the observation period regarding simultaneously precipitation and temperature conditions. The studied catchments are situated in a region where climate change is likely to have significant impacts on runoff and they already suffer from scarcity of water resources. They cover the main hydrographical basins of Northern Tunisia (High Medjerda, Zouaraâ, Ichkeul and Cap bon), which produce the majority of surface water resources in Tunisia. The streamflow regime of the basins can be considered as natural since these basins are located upstream from storage-dams and in areas where withdrawals are negligible. A 30-year common period (1970‒2000) was considered to capture a large spread of hydro-climatic conditions. The calibration was based on the Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) criterion, while the evaluation of model transferability is performed according to the Nash-Suttfliff efficiency criterion and volume error. The three hydrological models were shown to have similar behaviour under climate variability. Models prove a better ability to simulate the runoff pattern when transferred toward wetter periods compared to the case when transferred to drier periods. The limits of transferability are beyond -20% of precipitation and +1.5 °C of temperature in comparison with the calibration period. The deterioration of model robustness could in part be explained by the climate dependency of some parameters.

Keywords: rainfall-runoff modelling, hydro-climate variability, model robustness, uncertainty, Tunisia

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3656 'Call Drop': A Problem for Handover Minimizing the Call Drop Probability Using Analytical and Statistical Method

Authors: Anshul Gupta, T. Shankar

Abstract:

In this paper, we had analyzed the call drop to provide a good quality of service to user. By optimizing it we can increase the coverage area and also the reduction of interference and congestion created in a network. Basically handover is the transfer of call from one cell site to another site during a call. Here we have analyzed the whole network by two method-statistic model and analytic model. In statistic model we have collected all the data of a network during busy hour and normal 24 hours and in analytic model we have the equation through which we have to find the call drop probability. By avoiding unnecessary handovers we can increase the number of calls per hour. The most important parameter is co-efficient of variation on which the whole paper discussed.

Keywords: coefficient of variation, mean, standard deviation, call drop probability, handover

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3655 Chatter Suppression in Boring Process Using Passive Damper

Authors: V. Prasannavenkadesan, A. Elango, S. Chockalingam

Abstract:

During machining process, chatter is an unavoidable phenomenon. Boring bars possess the cantilever shape and due to this, it is subjected to chatter. The adverse effect of chatter includes the increase in temperature which will leads to excess tool wear. To overcome these problems, in this investigation, Cartridge brass (Cu – 70% and Zn – 30%) is passively fixed on the boring bar and also clearance is provided in order to reduce the displacement, tool wear and cutting temperature. A conventional all geared lathe is attached with vibrometer and pyrometer is used to measure the displacement and temperature. The influence of input parameters such as cutting speed, depth of cut and clearance on temperature, tool wear and displacement are investigated for various cutting conditions. From the result, the optimum conditions to obtain better damping in boring process for chatter reduction is identified.

Keywords: boring, chatter, mass damping, passive damping

Procedia PDF Downloads 342
3654 Reduction of Impulsive Noise in OFDM System using Adaptive Algorithm

Authors: Alina Mirza, Sumrin M. Kabir, Shahzad A. Sheikh

Abstract:

The Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing (OFDM) with high data rate, high spectral efficiency and its ability to mitigate the effects of multipath makes them most suitable in wireless application. Impulsive noise distorts the OFDM transmission and therefore methods must be investigated to suppress this noise. In this paper, a State Space Recursive Least Square (SSRLS) algorithm based adaptive impulsive noise suppressor for OFDM communication system is proposed. And a comparison with another adaptive algorithm is conducted. The state space model-dependent recursive parameters of proposed scheme enables to achieve steady state mean squared error (MSE), low bit error rate (BER), and faster convergence than that of some of existing algorithm.

Keywords: OFDM, impulsive noise, SSRLS, BER

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3653 Sea Surface Trend over the Arabian Sea and Its Influence on the South West Monsoon Rainfall Variability over Sri Lanka

Authors: Sherly Shelton, Zhaohui Lin

Abstract:

In recent decades, the inter-annual variability of summer precipitation over the India and Sri Lanka has intensified significantly with an increased frequency of both abnormally dry and wet summers. Therefore prediction of the inter-annual variability of summer precipitation is crucial and urgent for water management and local agriculture scheduling. However, none of the hypotheses put forward so far could understand the relationship to monsoon variability and related factors that affect to the South West Monsoon (SWM) variability in Sri Lanka. This study focused to identify the spatial and temporal variability of SWM rainfall events from June to September (JJAS) over Sri Lanka and associated trend. The monthly rainfall records covering 1980-2013 over the Sri Lanka are used for 19 stations to investigate long-term trends in SWM rainfall over Sri Lanka. The linear trends of atmospheric variables are calculated to understand the drivers behind the changers described based on the observed precipitation, sea surface temperature and atmospheric reanalysis products data for 34 years (1980–2013). Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis was applied to understand the spatial and temporal behaviour of seasonal SWM rainfall variability and also investigate whether the trend pattern is the dominant mode that explains SWM rainfall variability. The spatial and stations based precipitation over the country showed statistically insignificant decreasing trends except few stations. The first two EOFs of seasonal (JJAS) mean of rainfall explained 52% and 23 % of the total variance and first PC showed positive loadings of the SWM rainfall for the whole landmass while strongest positive lording can be seen in western/ southwestern part of the Sri Lanka. There is a negative correlation (r ≤ -0.3) between SMRI and SST in the Arabian Sea and Central Indian Ocean which indicate that lower temperature in the Arabian Sea and Central Indian Ocean are associated with greater rainfall over the country. This study also shows that consistently warming throughout the Indian Ocean. The result shows that the perceptible water over the county is decreasing with the time which the influence to the reduction of precipitation over the area by weakening drawn draft. In addition, evaporation is getting weaker over the Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal and Sri Lankan landmass which leads to reduction of moisture availability required for the SWM rainfall over Sri Lanka. At the same time, weakening of the SST gradients between Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal can deteriorate the monsoon circulation, untimely which diminish SWM over Sri Lanka. The decreasing trends of moisture, moisture transport, zonal wind, moisture divergence with weakening evaporation over Arabian Sea, during the past decade having an aggravating influence on decreasing trends of monsoon rainfall over the Sri Lanka.

Keywords: Arabian Sea, moisture flux convergence, South West Monsoon, Sri Lanka, sea surface temperature

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3652 Experimental Study of Various Sandwich Composites

Authors: R. Naveen, E. Vanitha, S. Gayathri

Abstract:

The use of Sandwich composite materials in aerospace and civil infrastructure application has been increasing especially due to their enormously low weight that leads to a reduction in the total weight and fuel consumption, high flexural and transverse shear stiffness, and corrosion resistance. The essential properties of sandwich materials vary according to the application area of the structure. The objectives of this study are to identify the mechanical behaviour and failure mechanisms of sandwich structures made of bamboo, V- board and metal (Aluminium as face sheet and Foam as Core material). The three-point bending test and UTM (Universal testing machine) experimental tests are done for three specimens for each type of sandwich composites. From the experiment results of three sandwich composites, bamboo shows high Young’s modulus of elasticity and low density.

Keywords: bamboo sandwich composite, metal sandwich composite, sandwich composite, v-board sandwich composite

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3651 Estimation of Eucalyptus Wood Calorific Potential for Energy Recovering

Authors: N. Ouslimani, N. Hakimi, H. Aksas

Abstract:

The reduction of oil reserves in the world makes that many countries are directed towards the study and the use of local and renewable energies. For this purpose, wood energy represents the material of choice. The energy production is primarily thermal and corresponds to a heating of comfort, auxiliary or principal. Wood is generally conditioned in the form of logs, of pellets, even of plates. In Algeria, this way of energy saving could contribute to the safeguarding of the environment, as to the recovery of under wood products (branches, barks and various wastes on the various transformation steps). This work is placed within the framework general of the search for new sources of energy starting from the recovery of the lignocellulosic matter. In this direction, we proposed various sources of products (biomass, under product and by-products) relating to the ‘Eucalyptus species’ being able to be developed, of which we carried out a preliminary physicochemical study, necessary to the development of the densified products with high calorific value.

Keywords: biomass, calorific value, combustion, energy recovery

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3650 Optimal Number of Reconfigurable Robots in a Transport System

Authors: Mari Chaikovskaia, Jean-Philippe Gayon, Alain Quilliot

Abstract:

We consider a fleet of elementary robots that can be connected in different ways to transport loads of different types. For instance, a single robot can transport a small load, and the association of two robots can either transport a large load or two small loads. We seek to determine the optimal number of robots to transport a set of loads in a given time interval, with or without reconfiguration. We show that the problem with reconfiguration is strongly NP-hard by a reduction to the bin-packing problem. Then, we study a special case with unit capacities and derive simple formulas for the minimum number of robots, up to 3 types of loads. For this special case, we compare the minimum number of robots with or without reconfiguration and show that the gain is limited in absolute value but may be significant for small fleets.

Keywords: fleet sizing, reconfigurability, robots, transportation

Procedia PDF Downloads 69
3649 Model for Assessment of Quality Airport Services

Authors: Cristina da Silva Torres, José Luis Duarte Ribeiro, Maria Auxiliadora Cannarozzo Tinoco

Abstract:

As a result of the rapid growth of the Brazilian Air Transport, many airports are at the limit of their capacities and have a reduction in the quality of services provided. Thus, there is a need of models for assessing the quality of airport services. Because of this, the main objective of this work is to propose a model for the evaluation of quality attributes in airport services. To this end, we used the method composed by literature review and interview. Structured a working method composed by 5 steps, which resulted in a model to evaluate the quality of airport services, consisting of 8 dimensions and 45 attributes. Was used as base for model definition the process mapping of boarding and landing processes of passengers and luggage. As a contribution of this work is the integration of management process with structuring models to assess the quality of services in airport environments.

Keywords: quality airport services, model for identification of attributes quality, air transport, passenger

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3648 Rough Neural Networks in Adapting Cellular Automata Rule for Reducing Image Noise

Authors: Yasser F. Hassan

Abstract:

The reduction or removal of noise in a color image is an essential part of image processing, whether the final information is used for human perception or for an automatic inspection and analysis. This paper describes the modeling system based on the rough neural network model to adaptive cellular automata for various image processing tasks and noise remover. In this paper, we consider the problem of object processing in colored image using rough neural networks to help deriving the rules which will be used in cellular automata for noise image. The proposed method is compared with some classical and recent methods. The results demonstrate that the new model is capable of being trained to perform many different tasks, and that the quality of these results is comparable or better than established specialized algorithms.

Keywords: rough sets, rough neural networks, cellular automata, image processing

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3647 Resilience Building, the Case of Dire Dawa Community, Ethiopia

Authors: Getachew Demesa Bexa

Abstract:

Building resilience to withstand extreme weather events through reduction and mitigation measures towards predicted disasters with appropriate contingency plans complemented by timely and effective emergency response demands committed and integrated/coordinated efforts. The 2006 flood disaster that claimed more than 200 people in Dire Dawa town shifted the paradigm from reactive to proactive engagement among government, NGOs and communities to contain future disasters through resilience building. Dire Dawa CMDRR Association is a model community organization that demonstrated the basic minimum and turning adversity into opportunity by mobilizing vulnerable community members. Meanwhile the birth of African Centre for Disaster Risk Management is a milestone in changing the image of the country and beyond in resilience building while linking relief and development.

Keywords: Dire Dawa, disaster, resilience, risk management

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3646 The Effects of Planting Date on the Yield and Yield Components of Corn (Zea mays L.) Cultivar, Single Cross 704

Authors: Mehranoosh Gholipoor

Abstract:

The effects of planting date on performance and yield components of maize single cross 704 was carried out in 2003.this experiment was designed in randomized complete block pattern with 3 replications in the field of College campus of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources in Gorgan. Treatments consisted of four planting dates (May5, May19, June4 and June19) respectively. The results showed that the planting on June4 were the best time for planting date in the field of seed performance and many other measurement qualities while planting date on June19 had the lowest seed performance in corn, due to a severe reduction in seed numbers had the highest In 1000 seed weight. Between the planting date on May 5 and May19 were observed no significant differences

Keywords: corn, planting date, performance and yield components

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3645 Turbulent Boundary Layer over 3D Sinusoidal Roughness

Authors: Misarah Abdelaziz, L Djenidi, Mergen H. Ghayesh, Rey Chin

Abstract:

Measurements of a turbulent boundary layer over 3D sinusoidal roughness are performed for friction Reynolds numbers ranging from 650 < Reτ < 2700. This surface was fabricated by a Multicam CNC Router machine of an acrylic sheet to have an amplitude of k/2 = 0.8 mm and an equal wavelength of 8k in both streamwise and spanwise directions, a 0.6 mm stepover and 12 mm ball nose cutter was used. Single hotwire anemometry measurements are done at one location x=1.5 m downstream at different freestream velocities under zero-pressure gradient conditions. As expected, the roughness causes a downward shift on the wall-unit normalised streamwise mean velocity profile when compared to the smooth wall profile. The shift is increasing with increasing Reτ, 1.8 < ∆U+ < 6.2. The coefficient of friction is almost constant at all cases Cf = 0.0042 ± 0.0002. The results show a gradual reduction in the inner peak of profiles with increasing Reτ until fully destruction at Reτ of 2700.

Keywords: hotwire, roughness, TBL, ZPG

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3644 Antifungal Activity of Silver Colloidal Nanoparticles against Phytopathogenic Fungus (Phomopsis sp.) in Soybean Seeds

Authors: J. E. Mendes, L. Abrunhosa, J. A. Teixeira, E. R. de Camargo, C. P. de Souza, J. D. C. Pessoa

Abstract:

Among the many promising nanomaterials with antifungal properties, metal nanoparticles (silver nanoparticles) stand out due to their high chemical activity. Therefore, the aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) against Phomopsis sp. AgNPs were synthesized by silver nitrate reduction with sodium citrate and stabilized with ammonia. The synthesized AgNPs have further been characterized by UV/Visible spectroscopy, Biophysical techniques like Dynamic light scattering (DLS) and Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM). The average diameter of the prepared silver colloidal nanoparticles was about 52 nm. Absolute inhibitions (100%) were observed on treated with a 270 and 540 µg ml-1 concentration of AgNPs. The results from the study of the AgNPs antifungal effect are significant and suggest that the synthesized silver nanoparticles may have an advantage compared with conventional fungicides.

Keywords: antifungal activity, Phomopsis sp., seeds, silver nanoparticles, soybean

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3643 Integrated Risk Assessment of Storm Surge and Climate Change for the Coastal Infrastructure

Authors: Sergey V. Vinogradov

Abstract:

Coastal communities are presently facing increased vulnerabilities due to rising sea levels and shifts in global climate patterns, a trend expected to escalate in the long run. To address the needs of government entities, the public sector, and private enterprises, there is an urgent need to thoroughly investigate, assess, and manage the present and projected risks associated with coastal flooding, including storm surges, sea level rise, and nuisance flooding. In response to these challenges, a practical approach to evaluating storm surge inundation risks has been developed. This methodology offers an integrated assessment of potential flood risk in targeted coastal areas. The physical modeling framework involves simulating synthetic storms and utilizing hydrodynamic models that align with projected future climate and ocean conditions. Both publicly available and site-specific data form the basis for a risk assessment methodology designed to translate inundation model outputs into statistically significant projections of expected financial and operational consequences. This integrated approach produces measurable indicators of impacts stemming from floods, encompassing economic and other dimensions. By establishing connections between the frequency of modeled flood events and their consequences across a spectrum of potential future climate conditions, our methodology generates probabilistic risk assessments. These assessments not only account for future uncertainty but also yield comparable metrics, such as expected annual losses for each inundation event. These metrics furnish stakeholders with a dependable dataset to guide strategic planning and inform investments in mitigation. Importantly, the model's adaptability ensures its relevance across diverse coastal environments, even in instances where site-specific data for analysis may be limited.

Keywords: climate, coastal, surge, risk

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3642 Enhancement of Long Term Peak Demand Forecast in Peninsular Malaysia Using Hourly Load Profile

Authors: Nazaitul Idya Hamzah, Muhammad Syafiq Mazli, Maszatul Akmar Mustafa

Abstract:

The peak demand forecast is crucial to identify the future generation plant up needed in the long-term capacity planning analysis for Peninsular Malaysia as well as for the transmission and distribution network planning activities. Currently, peak demand forecast (in Mega Watt) is derived from the generation forecast by using load factor assumption. However, a forecast using this method has underperformed due to the structural changes in the economy, emerging trends and weather uncertainty. The dynamic changes of these drivers will result in many possible outcomes of peak demand for Peninsular Malaysia. This paper will look into the independent model of peak demand forecasting. The model begins with the selection of driver variables to capture long-term growth. This selection and construction of variables, which include econometric, emerging trend and energy variables, will have an impact on the peak forecast. The actual framework begins with the development of system energy and load shape forecast by using the system’s hourly data. The shape forecast represents the system shape assuming all embedded technology and use patterns to continue in the future. This is necessary to identify the movements in the peak hour or changes in the system load factor. The next step would be developing the peak forecast, which involves an iterative process to explore model structures and variables. The final step is combining the system energy, shape, and peak forecasts into the hourly system forecast then modifying it with the forecast adjustments. Forecast adjustments are among other sales forecasts for electric vehicles, solar and other adjustments. The framework will result in an hourly forecast that captures growth, peak usage and new technologies. The advantage of this approach as compared to the current methodology is that the peaks capture new technology impacts that change the load shape.

Keywords: hourly load profile, load forecasting, long term peak demand forecasting, peak demand

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3641 Development of the Family Capacity of Management of Patients with Autism Spectrum Disorder Diagnosis

Authors: Marcio Emilio Dos Santos, Kelly C. F. Dos Santos

Abstract:

Caregivers of patients diagnosed with ASD are subjected to high stress situations due to the complexity and multiple levels of daily activities that require the organization of events, behaviors and socioemotional situations, such as immediate decision making and in public spaces. The cognitive and emotional requirement needed to fulfill this caregiving role exceeds the regular cultural process that adults receive in their process of preparation for conjugal and parental life. Therefore, in many cases, caregivers present a high level of overload, poor capacity to organize and mediate the development process of the child or patient about their care. Aims: Improvement in the cognitive and emotional capacities related to the caregiver function, allowing the reduction of the overload, the feeling of incompetence and the characteristic level of stress, developing a more organized conduct and decision making more oriented towards the objectives and procedural gains necessary for the integral development of the patient with diagnosis of ASD. Method: The study was performed with 20 relatives, randomly selected from a total of 140 patients attended. The family members were submitted to the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale III intelligence test and the Family assessment Management Measure (FaMM) questionnaire as a previous evaluation. Therapeutic activity in a small group of family members or caregivers, with weekly frequency, with a minimum workload of two hours, using the Feuerstein Instrumental Enrichment Cognitive Development Program - Feuerstein Instrumental Enrichment for ten months. Reapplication of the previous tests to verify the gains obtained. Results and Discussion: There is a change in the level of caregiver overload, improvement in the results of the Family assessment Management Measure and highlight to the increase of performance in the cognitive aspects related to problem solving, planned behavior and management of behavioral crises. These results lead to the discussion of the need to invest in the integrated care of patients and their caregivers, mainly by enabling cognitively to deal with the complexity of Autism. This goes beyond the simple therapeutic orientation about adjustments in family and school routines. The study showed that when the caregiver improves his/her capacity of management, the results of the treatment are potentiated and there is a reduction of the level of the caregiver's overload. Importantly, the study was performed for only ten months and the number of family members attended in the study (n = 20) needs to be expanded to have statistical strength.

Keywords: caregiver overload, cognitive development program ASD caregivers, feuerstein instrumental enrichment, family assessment management measure

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3640 Optimization of Operational Water Quality Parameters in a Drinking Water Distribution System Using Response Surface Methodology

Authors: Sina Moradi, Christopher W. K. Chow, John Van Leeuwen, David Cook, Mary Drikas, Patrick Hayde, Rose Amal

Abstract:

Chloramine is commonly used as a disinfectant in drinking water distribution systems (DWDSs), particularly in Australia and the USA. Maintaining a chloramine residual throughout the DWDS is important in ensuring microbiologically safe water is supplied at the customer’s tap. In order to simulate how chloramine behaves when it moves through the distribution system, a water quality network model (WQNM) can be applied. In this work, the WQNM was based on mono-chloramine decomposition reactions, which enabled prediction of mono-chloramine residual at different locations through a DWDS in Australia, using the Bentley commercial hydraulic package (Water GEMS). The accuracy of WQNM predictions is influenced by a number of water quality parameters. Optimization of these parameters in order to obtain the closest results in comparison with actual measured data in a real DWDS would result in both cost reduction as well as reduction in consumption of valuable resources such as energy and materials. In this work, the optimum operating conditions of water quality parameters (i.e. temperature, pH, and initial mono-chloramine concentration) to maximize the accuracy of mono-chloramine residual predictions for two water supply scenarios in an entire network were determined using response surface methodology (RSM). To obtain feasible and economical water quality parameters for highest model predictability, Design Expert 8.0 software (Stat-Ease, Inc.) was applied to conduct the optimization of three independent water quality parameters. High and low levels of the water quality parameters were considered, inevitably, as explicit constraints, in order to avoid extrapolation. The independent variables were pH, temperature and initial mono-chloramine concentration. The lower and upper limits of each variable for two water supply scenarios were defined and the experimental levels for each variable were selected based on the actual conditions in studied DWDS. It was found that at pH of 7.75, temperature of 34.16 ºC, and initial mono-chloramine concentration of 3.89 (mg/L) during peak water supply patterns, root mean square error (RMSE) of WQNM for the whole network would be minimized to 0.189, and the optimum conditions for averaged water supply occurred at pH of 7.71, temperature of 18.12 ºC, and initial mono-chloramine concentration of 4.60 (mg/L). The proposed methodology to predict mono-chloramine residual can have a great potential for water treatment plant operators in accurately estimating the mono-chloramine residual through a water distribution network. Additional studies from other water distribution systems are warranted to confirm the applicability of the proposed methodology for other water samples.

Keywords: chloramine decay, modelling, response surface methodology, water quality parameters

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3639 Touch Interaction through Tagging Context

Authors: Gabriel Chavira, Jorge Orozco, Salvador Nava, Eduardo Álvarez, Julio Rolón, Roberto Pichardo

Abstract:

Ambient Intelligence promotes a shift in computing which involves fitting-out the environments with devices to support context-aware applications. One of main objectives is the reduction to a minimum of the user’s interactive effort, the diversity and quantity of devices with which people are surrounded with, in existing environments; increase the level of difficulty to achieve this goal. The mobile phones and their amazing global penetration, makes it an excellent device for delivering new services to the user, without requiring a learning effort. The environment will have to be able to perceive all of the interaction techniques. In this paper, we present the PICTAC model (Perceiving touch Interaction through TAgging Context), which similarly delivers service to members of a research group.

Keywords: ambient intelligence, tagging context, touch interaction, touching services

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3638 Amino Acid Based Biodegradable Poly (Ester-Amide)s and Their Potential Biomedical Applications as Drug Delivery Containers and Antibacterial

Authors: Nino Kupatadze, Tamar Memanishvili, Natia Ochkhikidze, David Tugushi, Zaal Kokaia, Ramaz Katsarava

Abstract:

Amino acid-based Biodegradable poly(ester-amide)s (PEAs) have gained considerable interest as a promising materials for numerous biomedical applications. These polymers reveal a high biocompatibility and easily form small particles suitable for delivery various biological, as well as elastic bio-erodible films serving as matrices for constructing antibacterial coatings. In the present work we have demonstrated a potential of the PEAs for two applications: 1. cell therapy for stroke as vehicles for delivery and sustained release of growth factors, 2. bactericidal coating as prevention biofilm and applicable in infected wound management. Stroke remains the main cause of adult disability with limited treatment options. Although stem cell therapy is a promising strategy, it still requires improvement of cell survival, differentiation and tissue modulation. .Recently, microspheres (MPs) made of biodegradable polymers have gained significant attention for providing necessary support of transplanted cells. To investigate this strategy in the cell therapy of stroke, MPs loaded with transcription factors Wnt3A/BMP4 were prepared. These proteins have been shown to mediate the maturation of the cortical neurons. We have suggested that implantation of these materials could create a suitable microenvironment for implanted cells. Particles with spherical shape, porous surface, and 5-40 m in size (monitored by scanning electron microscopy) were made on the basis of the original PEA composed of adipic acid, L-phenylalanine and 1,4-butanediol. After 4 months transplantation of MPs in rodent brain, no inflammation was observed. Additionally, factors were successfully released from MPs and affected neuronal cell differentiation in in vitro. The in vivo study using loaded MPs is in progress. Another severe problem in biomedicine is prevention of surgical devices from biofilm formation. Antimicrobial polymeric coatings are most effective “shields” to protect surfaces/devices from biofilm formation. Among matrices for constructing the coatings preference should be given to bio-erodible polymers. Such types of coatings will play a role of “unstable seating” that will not allow bacteria to occupy the surface. In other words, bio-erodible coatings would be discomfort shelter for bacteria that along with releasing “killers of bacteria” should prevent the formation of biofilm. For this purpose, we selected an original biodegradable PEA composed of L-leucine, 1,6-hexanediol and sebacic acid as a bio-erodible matrix, and nanosilver (AgNPs) as a bactericidal agent (“killer of bacteria”). Such nanocomposite material is also promising in treatment of superficial wound and ulcer. The solubility of the PEA in ethanol allows to reduce AgNO3 to NPs directly in the solution, where the solvent served as a reductive agent, and the PEA served as NPs stabilizer. The photochemical reduction was selected as a basic method to form NPs. The obtained AgNPs were characterized by UV-spectroscopy, transmission electron microscope (TEM), and dynamic light scattering (DLS). According to the UV-data and TEM data the photochemical reduction resulted in spherical AgNPs with wide particle size distribution with a high contribution of the particles below 10 nm that are known as responsible for bactericidal activity of AgNPs. DLS study showed that average size of nanoparticles formed after photo-reduction in ethanol solution ranged within ca. 50 nm.

Keywords: biodegradable polymers, microparticles, nanocomposites, stem cell therapy, stroke

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3637 Household Energy Usage in Nigeria: Emerging Advances for Sustainable Development

Authors: O. A. Akinsanya

Abstract:

This paper presents the emerging trends in household energy usage in Nigeria for sustainable development. The paper relied on a direct appraisal of energy use in the residential sector and the use of a structured questionnaire to establish the usage pattern, energy management measures and emerging advances. The use of efficient appliances, retrofitting, smart building and smart attitude are some of the benefitting measures. The paper also identified smart building, prosumer activities, hybrid energy use, improved awareness, and solar stand-alone street/security lights as the trend and concluded that energy management strategies would result in a significant reduction in the monthly bills and peak loads as well as the total electricity consumption in Nigeria and therefore it is good for sustainable development.

Keywords: household, energy, trends, strategy, sustainable, Nigeria

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3636 Renewable Energy Interfaced Shunt Active Filter Using a Virtual Flux Direct Power Control

Authors: M. R. Bengourina, M. Rahli, L. Hassaine, S. Saadi

Abstract:

In this study, we present a control method entitled virtual flux direct power control of a grid connected photovoltaic system associated with an active power filter. The virtual flux direct control of power (VF-DPC) is employed for the calculation of reference current generation. In this technique, the switches states of inverter are selected from a table of switching based on the immediate errors between the active and reactive powers and their reference values. The objectives of this paper are the reduction of Total Harmonic Distortion (THD) of source current, compensating reactive power and injecting the maximum active power available from the PV array into the load and/or grid. MATLAB/SIMULINK simulations are provided to demonstrate the performance of the proposed approach.

Keywords: shunt active power filter, VF-DPC, photovoltaic, MPPT

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3635 Industrial Waste Multi-Metal Ion Exchange

Authors: Thomas S. Abia II

Abstract:

Intel Chandler Site has internally developed its first-of-kind (FOK) facility-scale wastewater treatment system to achieve multi-metal ion exchange. The process was carried out using a serial process train of carbon filtration, pH / ORP adjustment, and cationic exchange purification to treat dilute metal wastewater (DMW) discharged from a substrate packaging factory. Spanning a trial period of 10 months, a total of 3,271 samples were collected and statistically analyzed (average baseline + standard deviation) to evaluate the performance of a 95-gpm, multi-reactor continuous copper ion exchange treatment system that was consequently retrofitted for manganese ion exchange to meet environmental regulations. The system is also equipped with an inline acid and hot caustic regeneration system to rejuvenate exhausted IX resins and occasionally remove surface crud. Data generated from lab-scale studies was transferred to system operating modifications following multiple trial-and-error experiments. Despite the DMW treatment system failing to meet internal performance specifications for manganese output, it was observed to remove the cation notwithstanding the prevalence of copper in the waste stream. Accordingly, the average manganese output declined from 6.5 + 5.6 mg¹L⁻¹ at pre-pilot to 1.1 + 1.2 mg¹L⁻¹ post-pilot (83% baseline reduction). This milestone was achieved regardless of the average influent manganese to DMW increasing from 1.0 + 13.7 mg¹L⁻¹ at pre-pilot to 2.1 + 0.2 mg¹L⁻¹ post-pilot (110% baseline uptick). Likewise, the pre-trial and post-trial average influent copper values to DMW were 22.4 + 10.2 mg¹L⁻¹ and 32.1 + 39.1 mg¹L⁻¹, respectively (43% baseline increase). As a result, the pre-trial and post-trial average copper output values were 0.1 + 0.5 mg¹L⁻¹ and 0.4 + 1.2 mg¹L⁻¹, respectively (300% baseline uptick). Conclusively, the operating pH range upstream of treatment (between 3.5 and 5) was shown to be the largest single point of influence for optimizing manganese uptake during multi-metal ion exchange. However, the high variability of the influent copper-to-manganese ratio was observed to adversely impact the system functionality. The journal herein intends to discuss the operating parameters such as pH and oxidation-reduction potential (ORP) that were shown to influence the functional versatility of the ion exchange system significantly. The literature also proposes to discuss limitations of the treatment system such as influent copper-to-manganese ratio variations, operational configuration, waste by-product management, and system recovery requirements to provide a balanced assessment of the multi-metal ion exchange process. The take-away from this literature is intended to analyze the overall feasibility of ion exchange for metals manufacturing facilities that lack the capability to expand hardware due to real estate restrictions, aggressive schedules, or budgetary constraints.

Keywords: copper, industrial wastewater treatment, multi-metal ion exchange, manganese

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3634 Carbon Nanofibers as the Favorite Conducting Additive for Mn₃O₄ Catalysts for Oxygen Reactions in Rechargeable Zinc-Air Battery

Authors: Augustus K. Lebechi, Kenneth I. Ozoemena

Abstract:

Rechargeable zinc-air batteries (RZABs) have been described as one of the most viable next-generation ‘beyond-the-lithium-ion’ battery technologies with great potential for renewable energy storage. It is safe, with a high specific energy density (1086 Wh/kg), environmentally benign, and low-cost, especially in resource-limited African countries. For widespread commercialization, the sluggish oxygen reaction kinetics pose a major challenge that impedes the reversibility of the system. Hence, there is a need for low-cost and highly active bifunctional electrocatalysts. Manganese oxide catalysts on carbon conducting additives remain the best couple for the realization of such low-cost RZABs. In this work, hausmannite Mn₃O₄ nanoparticles were synthesized through the annealing method from commercial electrolytic manganese dioxide (EMD), multi-walled carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs) were synthesized via the chemical vapor deposition (CVD) method and carbon nanofibers (CNFs) were synthesized via the electrospinning process with subsequent carbonization. Both Mn₃O₄ catalysts and the carbon conducting additives (MWCNT and CNF) were thoroughly characterized using X-ray powder diffraction spectroscopy (XRD), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), thermogravimetry analysis (TGA) and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS). Composite electrocatalysts (Mn₃O₄/CNT and Mn₃O₄/CNF) were investigated for oxygen evolution reaction (OER) and oxygen reduction reaction (ORR) in an alkaline medium. Using the established electrocatalytic modalities for evaluating the electrocatalytic performance of materials (including double layer, electrochemical active surface area, roughness factor, specific current density, and catalytic stability), CNFs proved to be the most efficient conducting additive material for the Mn₃O₄ catalyst. From the DFT calculations, the higher performance of the CNFs over the MWCNTs is related to the ability of the CNFs to allow for a more favorable distribution of the d-electrons of the manganese (Mn) and enhanced synergistic effect with Mn₃O₄ for weaker adsorption energies of the oxygen intermediates (O*, OH* and OOH*). In a proof-of-concept, Mn₃O₄/CNF was investigated as the air cathode for rechargeable zinc-air battery (RZAB) in a micro-3D-printed cell configuration. The RZAB showed good performance in terms of open circuit voltage (1.77 V), maximum power density (177.5 mW cm-2), areal-discharge energy and cycling stability comparable to Pt/C (20 wt%) + IrO2. The findings here provide fresh physicochemical perspectives on the future design and utility of CNFs for developing manganese-based RZABs.

Keywords: bifunctional electrocatalyst, oxygen evolution reaction, oxygen reduction reactions, rechargeable zinc-air batteries.

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