Search results for: prediction modelling

Authors: Jiri F. Urbanek, Jiri Barta, Oldrich Svoboda, Jiri J. Urbanek

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The organizations of European and Czech critical infrastructure have specific position, mission, characteristics and behaviour in European Union and Czech state/ business environments, regarding specific requirements for regional and global security environments. They must respect policy of national security and global rules, requirements and standards in all their inherent and outer processes of supply-customer chains and networks. A controlling is generalized capability to have control over situational policy. This paper aims and purposes are to introduce the controlling as quite new necessary process attribute providing for critical infrastructure is environment the capability and profit to achieve its commitment regarding to the effectiveness of the quality management system in meeting customer/ user requirements and also the continual improvement of critical infrastructure organization’s processes overall performance and efficiency, as well as its societal security via continual planning improvement via DYVELOP modelling.

Keywords: added value, DYVELOP, controlling, environments, process approach

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Authors: S. A. Naeini, A. Khalili

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Nowadays, tunnels with different applications are developed, and most of them are related to subway tunnels. The excavation of shallow tunnels that pass under municipal utilities is very important, and the surface settlement control is an important factor in the design. The study sought to analyze the settlement and also to find an appropriate model in order to predict the behavior of the tunnel in Tehran subway line-3. The displacement in these sections is also determined by using numerical analyses and numerical modeling. In addition, the Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) method is utilized by Hybrid training algorithm. The database pertinent to the optimum network was obtained from 46 subway tunnels in Iran and Turkey which have been constructed by the new Austrian tunneling method (NATM) with similar parameters based on type of their soil. The surface settlement was measured, and the acquired results were compared to the predicted values. The results disclosed that computing intelligence is a good substitute for numerical modeling.

Keywords: settlement, Subway Line, FLAC3D, ANFIS Method

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Authors: Saowaluck Ukrisdawithid

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The thermal conductivity of thermal insulation materials are measured by Heat Flow Meter (HFM) apparatus. The components of uncertainty are complex and difficult on routine measurement by modelling approach. In this study, uncertainty of thermal conductivity measurement was estimated by single laboratory validation approach. The within-laboratory reproducibility was 1.1%. The standard uncertainty of method and laboratory bias by using SRM1453 expanded polystyrene board was dominant at 1.4%. However, it was assessed that there was no significant bias. For sample measurement, the sources of uncertainty were repeatability, density of sample and thermal conductivity resolution of HFM. From this approach to sample measurements, the combined uncertainty was calculated. In summary, the thermal conductivity of sample, polystyrene foam, was reported as 0.03367 W/m·K ± 3.5% (k = 2) at mean temperature 23.5 °C. The single laboratory validation approach is simple key of routine testing laboratory for estimation uncertainty of thermal conductivity measurement by using HFM, according to ISO/IEC 17025-2017 requirements. These are meaningful for laboratory competent improvement, quality control on products, and conformity assessment.

Keywords: single laboratory validation approach, within-laboratory reproducibility, method and laboratory bias, certified reference material

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Authors: N. Alhazmi

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Knowing the thermodynamics properties of hydrocarbons is vital when it comes to analyzing the related chemical reaction outcomes and understanding the reaction process, especially in terms of petrochemical industrial applications, combustions, and catalytic reactions. However, measuring the thermodynamics properties experimentally is time-consuming and costly. In this paper, Gaussian process regression (GPR) has been used to directly predict the main thermodynamic properties - standard enthalpy of formation, standard entropy, and heat capacity -for more than 360 cyclic and non-cyclic alkanes, alkenes, and alkynes. A simple workflow has been proposed that can be applied to directly predict the main properties of any hydrocarbon by knowing its descriptors and chemical structure and can be generalized to predict the main properties of any material. The model was evaluated by calculating the statistical error R², which was more than 0.9794 for all the predicted properties.

Keywords: thermodynamic, Gaussian process regression, hydrocarbons, regression, supervised learning, entropy, enthalpy, heat capacity

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Authors: Mohamed M. Abo Elazm, Ali I. Shehata, Mohamed M. Khairat Dawood

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A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) program FLUENT has been used to predict the fluid flow and heat transfer distribution within concentric heat exchangers. The effect of inlet inclination angle has been investigated with Reynolds number range (3000 – 4000) and Pr=0.71. The heat exchanger is fabricated from copper concentric inner tube with a length of 750 mm. The effects of hot to cold inlet flow rate ratio (MH/MC), Reynolds's number and of inlet inclination angle of 30°, 45°, 60° and 90° are considered. The results showed that the numerical prediction shows a good agreement with experimental measurement. The results present an efficient design of concentric tube heat exchanger to enhance the heat transfer by increasing the swirling effect.

Keywords: heat transfer, swirling effect, CFD, inclination angle, concentric tube heat exchange

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Authors: Amir Mabhout, Toktam Ghafarian, Amirhossein Farzin, Zahra Makki, Sajjad Alizadeh, Amirhossein Ghavi

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The high number of Netflix subscribers makes it attractive for data scientists to extract valuable knowledge from the viewers' behavioural analyses. This paper presents a set of statistical insights into viewers' viewing history. After that, a deep learning model is used to predict the future watching behaviour of the users based on previous watching history within the Netflixlatte data pool. Netflixlatte in an aggregated and anonymized data pool of 320 Netflix viewers with a length 250 000 data points recorded between 2008-2022. We observe insightful correlations between the distribution of viewing time and the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak. The presented deep learning model predicts future movie and TV series viewing habits with an average loss of 0.175.

Keywords: data analysis, deep learning, LSTM neural network, netflix

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Authors: Tine Cencič, Marko Hočevar, Brane Širok

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An experimental investigation has been made to detect cavitation in pump–storage hydro power plant prototype suffering from cavitation in pump mode. Vibrations and acoustic emission on the housing of turbine bearing and pressure fluctuations in the draft tube were measured and the corresponding signals have been recorded and analyzed. The analysis was based on the analysis of high-frequency content of measured variables. The pump-storage hydro power plant prototype has been operated at various input loads and Thoma numbers. Several estimators of cavitation were evaluated according to coefficient of determination between Thoma number and cavitation estimators. The best results were achieved with a compound discharge coefficient cavitation estimator. Cavitation estimators were evaluated in several intervals of frequencies. Also, a prediction of cavitation erosion was made in order to choose the appropriate maintenance and repair periods.

Keywords: cavitation erosion, turbine, cavitation measurement, fluid dynamics

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Authors: R. J. Chang

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A cyclostationary Gaussian linearization method is formulated for investigating the time average response of nonlinear system under sinusoidal signal and white noise excitation. The quantitative measure of cyclostationary mean, variance, spectrum of mean amplitude, and mean power spectral density of noise is analyzed. The qualitative response behavior of stochastic jump and bifurcation are investigated. The validity of the present approach in predicting the quantitative and qualitative statistical responses is supported by utilizing Monte Carlo simulations. The present analysis without imposing restrictive analytical conditions can be directly derived by solving non-linear algebraic equations. The analytical solution gives reliable quantitative and qualitative prediction of mean and noise response for the Duffing system subjected to both sinusoidal signal and white noise excitation.

Keywords: cyclostationary, duffing system, Gaussian linearization, sinusoidal, white noise

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Authors: K. Govender, M. Sinclair

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This paper demonstrates a proof of concept whereby shorter trips and land use densification can be promoted through an alternative approach to planning and implementation of road infrastructure in the South African context. It briefly discusses how the development of the Compact City concept relies on a combination of promoting shorter trips and densification through a change in focus in road infrastructure provision. The methodology developed in this paper uses a traffic model to test the impact of synthesized deterrence functions on congestion locations in the road network through the assignment of traffic on the study network. The results from this study demonstrate that intelligent planning of road infrastructure can indeed promote reduced urban sprawl, increased residential density and mixed-use areas which are supported by an efficient public transport system; and reduced dependence on the freeway network with a fixed road infrastructure budget. The study has resonance for all cities where urban sprawl is seemingly unstoppable.

Keywords: compact cities, densification, road infrastructure planning, transportation modelling

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Authors: M. H. Korayem, Sh. Ameri, N. Yousefi Lademakhi

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To ensure the stability of closed-loop nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC) within a finite horizon, there is a need for appropriate design terminal ingredients, which can be a time-consuming and challenging effort. Otherwise, in order to ensure the stability of the control system, it is necessary to consider an infinite predictive horizon. Increasing the prediction horizon increases computational demand and slows down the implementation of the method. In this study, a new technique has been proposed to ensure system stability without terminal ingredients. This technique has been employed in the design of the NMPC algorithm, leading to a reduction in the computational complexity of designing terminal ingredients and computational burden. The studied system is a wheeled mobile robot (WMR) subjected to non-holonomic constraints. Simulation has been investigated for two problems: trajectory tracking and adjustment mode.

Keywords: wheeled mobile robot, nonlinear model predictive control, stability, without terminal ingredients

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Authors: Zerarka Hizia, Akchiche Mustapha, Prunier Florent

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The landslide of Ain El Hammam (AEH) is characterized by a complex geology and a high hydrogeology hazard. AEH's perpetual reactivation compels us to look closely at its triggers and to better understand the mechanisms of its evolution in mass and in depth. This study builds a numerical model to simulate the influencing factors such as precipitation, non-saturation, and pore pressure fluctuations, using Plaxis software. For a finer analysis of instabilities, we use Hill's criterion, based on the sign of the second order work, which is the most appropriate material stability criterion for non-associated elastoplastic materials. The results of this type of calculation allow us, in theory, to predict the shape and position of the slip surface(s) which are liable to ground movements of the slope, before reaching the rupture given by the plastic limit of Mohr Coulomb. To validate the numerical model, an analysis of inclinometer measures is performed to confirm the direction of movement and kinematic of the sliding mechanism of AEH’s slope.

Keywords: landslide, second order work, precipitation, inclinometers

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Authors: Musa H. Arslan, Murat Ceylan, Tayfun Koyuncu

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In this study, an artificial intelligence-based (ANN based) analytical method has been developed for analyzing earthquake performances of the reinforced concrete (RC) buildings. 66 RC buildings with four to ten storeys were subjected to performance analysis according to the parameters which are the existing material, loading and geometrical characteristics of the buildings. The selected parameters have been thought to be effective on the performance of RC buildings. In the performance analyses stage of the study, level of performance possible to be shown by these buildings in case of an earthquake was determined on the basis of the 4-grade performance levels specified in Turkish Earthquake Code- 2007 (TEC-2007). After obtaining the 4-grade performance level, selected 23 parameters of each building have been matched with the performance level. In this stage, ANN-based fast evaluation algorithm mentioned above made an economic and rapid evaluation of four to ten storey RC buildings. According to the study, the prediction accuracy of ANN has been found about 74%.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, earthquake, performance, reinforced concrete

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Authors: Azizah Hashim, Rohana Ngah

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Transformation of Economic Development is aimed to transform Malaysia to become a high-income developed nation with a knowledge-based economy by 2020. To achieve this national agenda, the country needs to further strengthen its economic development, growth and well-being. Therefore, this study aspires to examine the relationship between market orientation, human resource management and adoption of information communication technology and SMEs performance and cash management as a mediator. This study will employ quantitative approaches. Questionnaires will be distributed to managers and owners in service sectors. The data collected will be analyzed using SPSS and Structural Equation Modelling. Resource Based Theory (RBT) adopts as an integral part of management literature that explains the performance of organizations through building resources and implement of their strategies.

Keywords: small medium enterprises (SMEs), market orientation, human resource management, adoption of information communication technology

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Authors: Carla M. Machado, André A. Silva, Armando Bastos, Telmo G. Santos, J. Pamies Teixeira

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Advanced high-strength steels (AHSS) are increasingly being used in automotive components. The use of AHSS sheets plays an important role in reducing weight, as well as increasing the resistance to impact in vehicle components. However, the large-scale use of these sheets becomes more difficult due to the limitations during the forming process. Such limitations are due to the elastically driven change of shape of a metal sheet during unloading and following forming, known as the springback effect. As the magnitude of the springback tends to increase with the strength of the material, it is among the most worrisome problems in the use of AHSS steels. The prediction of strain hardening, especially under non-proportional loading conditions, is very limited due to the lack of constitutive models and mainly due to very limited experimental tests. It is very clear from the literature that in experimental terms there is not much work to evaluate deformation behavior under real conditions, which implies a very limited and scarce development of mathematical models for these conditions. The Bauschinger effect is also fundamental to the difference between kinematic and isotropic hardening models used to predict springback in sheet metal forming. It is of major importance to deepen the phenomenological knowledge of the mechanical and microstructural behavior of the materials, in order to be able to reproduce with high fidelity the behavior of extension of the materials by means of computational simulation. For this, a multi phenomenological analysis and characterization are necessary to understand the various aspects involved in plastic deformation, namely the stress-strain relations and also the variations of electrical conductivity and magnetic permeability associated with the metallurgical changes due to plastic deformation. Aiming a complete mechanical-microstructural characterization, uniaxial tensile tests involving successive cycles of loading and unloading were performed, as well as biaxial tests such as the Erichsen test. Also, nondestructive evaluation comprising eddy currents to verify microstructural changes due to plastic deformation and ultrasonic tests to evaluate the local variations of thickness were made. The material parameters for the stable yield function and the monotonic strain hardening were obtained using uniaxial tension tests in different material directions and balanced biaxial tests. Both the decrease of the modulus of elasticity and Bauschinger effect were determined through the load-unload tensile tests. By means of the eddy currents tests, it was possible to verify changes in the magnetic permeability of the material according to the different plastically deformed areas. The ultrasonic tests were an important aid to quantify the local plastic extension. With these data, it is possible to parameterize the different models of kinematic hardening to better approximate the results obtained by simulation with the experimental results, which are fundamental for the springback prediction of the stamped parts.

Keywords: advanced high strength steel, Bauschinger effect, sheet metal forming, springback

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Authors: W. Badla

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A numerical investigation has been carried out to examine the behaviour of reinforced concrete slabs to uniform blast loading. The aim of this work is to determine the effects of various parameters on the results. Finite element simulations were performed in the non linear dynamic range using an elasto-plastic damage model. The main parameters considered are: the negative phase of blast loading, time duration, equivalent weight of TNT, distance of the explosive and slab dimensions. Numerical modelling has been performed using ABAQUS/Explicit. The results obtained in terms of displacements and propagation of damage show that the above parameters influence considerably the nonlinear dynamic behaviour of reinforced concrete slabs under uniform blast loading.

Keywords: blast loading, reinforced concrete slabs, elasto-plastic damage model, negative phase, time duration, equivalent weight of TNT, explosive distance, slab dimensions

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Authors: Andrea Ghermandi

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Natural treatment systems such as constructed wetlands and waste stabilization ponds are increasingly used to treat water and wastewater from a variety of sources, including stormwater and polluted surface water. The provision of ancillary benefits in the form of cultural ecosystem services makes these systems unique among water and wastewater treatment technologies and greatly contributes to determine their potential role in promoting sustainable water management practices. A quantitative analysis of these benefits, however, has been lacking in the literature. Here, a critical assessment of the recreational and educational benefits in natural treatment systems is provided, which combines observed public use from a survey of managers and operators with estimated public use as obtained using geotagged photos from social media as a proxy for visitation rates. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) are used to characterize the spatial boundaries of 273 natural treatment systems worldwide. Such boundaries are used as input for the Application Program Interfaces (APIs) of two popular photo-sharing websites (Flickr and Panoramio) in order to derive the number of photo-user-days, i.e., the number of yearly visits by individual photo users in each site. The adequateness and predictive power of four univariate calibration models using the crowdsourced data as a proxy for visitation are evaluated. A high correlation is found between photo-user-days and observed annual visitors (Pearson's r = 0.811; p-value < 0.001; N = 62). Standardized Major Axis (SMA) regression is found to outperform Ordinary Least Squares regression and count data models in terms of predictive power insofar as standard verification statistics – such as the root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP), the mean absolute error of prediction (MAEP), the reduction of error (RE), and the coefficient of efficiency (CE) – are concerned. The SMA regression model is used to estimate the intensity of public use in all 273 natural treatment systems. System type, influent water quality, and area are found to statistically affect public use, consistently with a priori expectations. Publicly available information regarding the home location of the sampled visitors is derived from their social media profiles and used to infer the distance they are willing to travel to visit the natural treatment systems in the database. Such information is analyzed using the travel cost method to derive monetary estimates of the recreational benefits of the investigated natural treatment systems. Overall, the findings confirm the opportunities arising from an integrated design and management of natural treatment systems, which combines the objectives of water quality enhancement and provision of cultural ecosystem services through public use in a multi-functional approach and compatibly with the need to protect public health.

Keywords: constructed wetlands, cultural ecosystem services, ecological engineering, waste stabilization ponds

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Authors: O. J. Akinsola, Yinan Zheng, Rose Anorlu, F. T. Ogunsola, Lifang Hou, Robert Leo-Murphy

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Cervical Cancer (CC) is the 2nd most common cancer among women living in low and middle-income countries, with no associated symptoms during formative periods. With the advancement and innovative medical research, there are numerous preventive measures being utilized, but the incidence of cervical cancer cannot be truncated with the application of only screening tests. The mortality associated with this invasive cervical cancer can be nipped in the bud through the important role of early-stage detection. This study research selected an array of different top features selection techniques which was aimed at developing a model that could validly diagnose the risk factors of cervical cancer. A retrospective clinic-based cohort study was conducted on 178 HIV-associated cervical cancer patients in Lagos University teaching Hospital, Nigeria (U54 data repository) in April 2022. The outcome measure was the automated prediction of the HIV-associated cervical cancer cases, while the predictor variables include: demographic information, reproductive history, birth control, sexual history, cervical cancer screening history for invasive cervical cancer. The proposed technique was assessed with R and Python programming software to produce the model by utilizing the classification algorithms for the detection and diagnosis of cervical cancer disease. Four machine learning classification algorithms used are: the machine learning model was split into training and testing dataset into ratio 80:20. The numerical features were also standardized while hyperparameter tuning was carried out on the machine learning to train and test the data. Logistic Regression (LR), Decision Tree (DT), Random Forest (RF), and K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN). Some fitting features were selected for the detection and diagnosis of cervical cancer diseases from selected characteristics in the dataset using the contribution of various selection methods for the classification cervical cancer into healthy or diseased status. The mean age of patients was 49.7±12.1 years, mean age at pregnancy was 23.3±5.5 years, mean age at first sexual experience was 19.4±3.2 years, while the mean BMI was 27.1±5.6 kg/m2. A larger percentage of the patients are Married (62.9%), while most of them have at least two sexual partners (72.5%). Age of patients (OR=1.065, p<0.001**), marital status (OR=0.375, p=0.011**), number of pregnancy live-births (OR=1.317, p=0.007**), and use of birth control pills (OR=0.291, p=0.015**) were found to be significantly associated with HIV-associated cervical cancer. On top ten 10 features (variables) considered in the analysis, RF claims the overall model performance, which include: accuracy of (72.0%), the precision of (84.6%), a recall of (84.6%) and F1-score of (74.0%) while LR has: an accuracy of (74.0%), precision of (70.0%), recall of (70.0%) and F1-score of (70.0%). The RF model identified 10 features predictive of developing cervical cancer. The age of patients was considered as the most important risk factor, followed by the number of pregnancy livebirths, marital status, and use of birth control pills, The study shows that data mining techniques could be used to identify women living with HIV at high risk of developing cervical cancer in Nigeria and other sub-Saharan African countries.

Keywords: associated cervical cancer, data mining, random forest, logistic regression

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Authors: Saul Ngarava, Leocadia Zhou, Nomakhaya Monde

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Water crises have the fourth most significant societal impact after weapons of mass destruction, climate change, and extreme weather conditions, ahead of natural disasters. Intricacies between women and water are central to achieving the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The majority of the 1.2 billion poor people worldwide, with two-thirds being women, and mostly located in Sub Sahara Africa (SSA) and South Asia, do not have access to safe and reliable sources of water. There exist gendered differences in water security based on the division of labour associating women with water. Globally, women and girls are responsible for water collection in 80% of the households which have no water on their premises. Women spend 16 million hours a day collecting water, while men and children spend 6 million and 4 million per day, respectively, which is time foregone in the pursuit of other livelihood activities. Due to their proximity and activities concerning water, women are vulnerable to water insecurity through exposures to water-borne diseases, fatigue from physically carrying water, and exposure to sexual and physical harassment, amongst others. Proximity to treated water and their wellbeing also has an effect on their sensitivity and adaptive capacity to water insecurity. The great distances, difficult terrain and heavy lifting expose women to vulnerabilities of water insecurity. However, few studies have quantified the vulnerabilities and burdens on women, with a few taking a phenomenological qualitative approach. Vulnerability studies have also been scanty in the water security realm, with most studies taking linear forms of either quantifying exposures, sensitivities or adaptive capacities in climate change studies. The current study argues for the need for a water insecurity vulnerability assessment, especially for women into research agendas as well as policy interventions, monitoring, and evaluation. The study sought to identify and provide pathways through which female-headed households were water insecure in South Africa, the 30th driest country in the world. This was through linking the drinking water decision as well as the vulnerability frameworks. Secondary data collected during the 2016 General Household Survey (GHS) was utilised, with a sample of 5928 female-headed households. Principal Component Analysis and Structural Equation Modelling were used to analyse the data. The results show dynamic relationships between water characteristics and water treatment. There were also associations between water access and wealth status of the female-headed households. Association was also found between water access and water treatment as well as between wealth status and water treatment. The study concludes that there are dynamic relationships in water insecurity (exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity) for female-headed households in South Africa. The study recommends that a multi-prong approach is required in tackling exposures, sensitivities, and adaptive capacities to water insecurity. This should include capacitating and empowering women for wealth generation, improve access to water treatment equipment as well as prioritising the improvement of infrastructure that brings piped and safe water to female-headed households.

Keywords: gender, principal component analysis, structural equation modelling, vulnerability, water insecurity

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Authors: Elena Collino, Dario A. Ronzio, Goffredo Decimi, Maurizio Riva

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The rapid increase of renewable energy in Italy is led by wind and solar installations. The 2017 Italian energy strategy foresees a further development of these sustainable technologies, especially solar. This fact has resulted in new opportunities, challenges, and different problems to deal with. The growth of renewables allows to meet the European requirements regarding energy and environmental policy, but these types of sources are difficult to manage because they are intermittent and non-programmable. Operationally, these characteristics can lead to instability on the voltage profile and increasing uncertainty on energy reserve scheduling. The increasing renewable production must be considered with more and more attention especially by the Transmission System Operator (TSO). The TSO, in fact, every day provides orders on energy dispatch, once the market outcome has been determined, on extended areas, defined mainly on the basis of power transmission limitations. In Italy, six market zone are defined: Northern-Italy, Central-Northern Italy, Central-Southern Italy, Southern Italy, Sardinia, and Sicily. An accurate hourly renewable power forecasting for the day-ahead on these extended areas brings an improvement both in terms of dispatching and reserve management. In this study, an operational forecasting tool of the hourly solar output for the six Italian market zones is presented, and the performance is analysed. The implementation is carried out by means of a numerical weather prediction model, coupled with a statistical post-processing in order to derive the power forecast on the basis of the meteorological projection. The weather forecast is obtained from the limited area model RAMS on the Italian territory, initialized with IFS-ECMWF boundary conditions. The post-processing calculates the solar power production with the Analog Ensemble technique (AN). This statistical approach forecasts the production using a probability distribution of the measured production registered in the past when the weather scenario looked very similar to the forecasted one. The similarity is evaluated for the components of the solar radiation: global (GHI), diffuse (DIF) and direct normal (DNI) irradiation, together with the corresponding azimuth and zenith solar angles. These are, in fact, the main factors that affect the solar production. Considering that the AN performance is strictly related to the length and quality of the historical data a training period of more than one year has been used. The training set is made by historical Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) forecasts at 12 UTC for the GHI, DIF and DNI variables over the Italian territory together with corresponding hourly measured production for each of the six zones. The AN technique makes it possible to estimate the aggregate solar production in the area, without information about the technologic characteristics of the all solar parks present in each area. Besides, this information is often only partially available. Every day, the hourly solar power forecast for the six Italian market zones is made publicly available through a website.

Keywords: analog ensemble, electricity market, PV forecast, solar energy

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Authors: Naveed Ul Hassan, Bilal Aziz, Maryam Mushtaq, Imran Ameen Khan

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Equity risk premium (ERP) is the stock return in excess of risk free return. Even though it is an essential topic of finance but still there is no common consensus upon its forecasting. For forecasting ERP, apart from the macroeconomic variables attention is devoted to technical indicators as well. For this purpose, set of 14 technical and 14 macro-economic variables is selected and all forecasts are generated based on a standard predictive regression framework, where ERP is regressed on a constant and a lag of a macroeconomic variable or technical indicator. The comparative results showed that technical indicators provide better indications about ERP estimates as compared to macro-economic variables. The relative strength of ERP predictability is also investigated by using National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) data of business cycle expansion and recessions and found that ERP predictability is more than twice for recessions as compared to expansions.

Keywords: equity risk premium, forecasting, macroeconomic indicators, technical indicators

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Authors: Farid Arya, Trevor Hyde, Andrea Trevisi, Paolo Basso, Danilo Bardaro

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Heat transfer through multiple pane windows can be reduced by creating a vacuum pressure less than 0.1 Pa between the glass panes, with low emittance coatings on one or more of the internal surfaces. Fabrication of vacuum glazing (VG) requires the formation of a hermetic seal around the periphery of the glass panes together with an array of support pillars between the panes to prevent them from touching under atmospheric pressure. Atmospheric pressure and temperature differentials induce stress which can affect the integrity of the glazing. Several parameters define the stresses in VG including the glass thickness, pillar specifications, glazing dimensions and edge seal configuration. Inherent stresses in VG can result in fractures in the glass panes and failure of the edge seal. In this study, stress in VG with different glass thicknesses is theoretically studied using Finite Element Modelling (FEM). Based on the finding in this study, suggestions are made to address problems resulting from the use of thinner glass panes in the fabrication of VG. This can lead to the development of high performance, light and thin VG.

Keywords: vacuum glazing, stress, vacuum insulation, support pillars

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Authors: Danilo López, Edwin Rivas, Leyla López

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This paper presents the development of an algorithm that predicts the arrival of a secondary user (SU) to a base station (BS) in a cognitive network based on infrastructure, requesting a Best Effort (BE) or Real Time (RT) type of service with a determined bandwidth (BW) implementing neural networks. The algorithm dynamically uses a neural network construction technique using the geometric pyramid topology and trains a Multilayer Perceptron Neural Networks (MLPNN) based on the historical arrival of an SU to estimate future applications. This will allow efficiently managing the information in the BS, since it precedes the arrival of the SUs in the stage of selection of the best channel in CRN. As a result, the software application determines the probability of arrival at a future time point and calculates the performance metrics to measure the effectiveness of the predictions made.

Keywords: cognitive radio, base station, best effort, MLPNN, prediction, real time

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Authors: Mohammad Moonesun, Ehsan Asadi Asrami, Julia Bodnarchuk

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In the case of Solar Autonomous Underwater Vehicle, which uses photovoltaic panels to provide its required power, due to limitation of energy, accurate estimation of resistance and energy has major sensitivity. In this work, hydrodynamic calculations by numerical method for a solar autonomous underwater vehicle equipped by two 50 W photovoltaic panels has been studied. To evaluate the required power and energy, hull hydrodynamic resistance in several velocities should be taken into account. To do this assessment, the ANSYS FLUENT 18 applied as Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) tool that solves Reynolds Average Navier Stokes (RANS) equations around AUV hull, and K-ω SST is used as turbulence model. To validate of solution method and modeling approach, the model of Myring submarine that it’s experimental data was available, is simulated. There is good agreement between numerical and experimental results. Also, these results showed that the K-ω SST Turbulence model is an ideal method to simulate the AUV motion in low velocities.

Keywords: underwater vehicle, hydrodynamic resistance, numerical modelling, CFD, RANS

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Authors: Rezaei Hachesu Peyman, Oliyaee Azadeh, Salahzadeh Zahra, Alizadeh Somayyeh, Safaei Naser

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Coronary Artery Disease (CAD) is one major cause of disability in adults and one main cause of death in developed. In this study, data mining techniques including Decision Trees, Artificial neural networks (ANNs), and Support Vector Machine (SVM) analyze CAD data. Data of 4948 patients who had suffered from heart diseases were included in the analysis. CAD is the target variable, and 24 inputs or predictor variables are used for the classification. The performance of these techniques is compared in terms of sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy. The most significant factor influencing CAD is chest pain. Elderly males (age > 53) have a high probability to be diagnosed with CAD. SVM algorithm is the most useful way for evaluation and prediction of CAD patients as compared to non-CAD ones. Application of data mining techniques in analyzing coronary artery diseases is a good method for investigating the existing relationships between variables.

Keywords: classification, coronary artery disease, data-mining, knowledge discovery, extract

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Authors: Wenzhe Li, Xiaoyu Ying, Grace Ding

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Architecture plane form is an important consideration in the design of green buildings due to its significant impact on energy performance. The most effective method to consider energy performance in the early design stages is parametric modelling. This paper presents a methodology to program plane forms using MATLAB language, generating 16 kinds of plane forms by changing four designed parameters. DesignBuilder (an energy consumption simulation software) was proposed to simulate the energy consumption of the generated planes. A regression mathematical model was established to study the relationship between the plane forms and their energy consumption. The main finding of the study suggested that there was a cubic function relationship between the depth-ratio of U-shaped buildings and energy consumption, and there is also a cubic function relationship between the width-ratio and energy consumption. In the design, the depth-ratio of U-shaped buildings should not be less than 2.5, and the width-ratio should not be less than 2.

Keywords: graphic parameterization, green building design, mathematical model, plane form

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Authors: Dawei Xia, Benyan Jiang, Yong Li

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Split-type air conditioners is widely used for indoor temperature regulation in urban residential buildings in summer in China. The energy-related occupant behavior has a great impact on building energy consumption. Obtaining the energy-related occupant behavior data of air conditioners is the research basis for the energy consumption prediction and simulation. Relying on the development of sensing and control technology, this paper selects Zigbee intelligent electronic equipment to monitor the energy-related occupant behavior of 20 households for 3 months in summer. Through analysis of data, it is found that people of different ages in the region have significant difference in the time, duration, frequency, and energy consumption of air conditioners, and form a data model of three basic energy-related occupant behavior patterns to provide an accurate simulation of energy.

Keywords: occupant behavior, Zigbee, split air conditioner, energy simulation

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Authors: Seyed Mohsen Jameii

Abstract:

Wireless underwater sensor networks are a type of sensor networks that are located in underwater environments and linked together by acoustic waves. The application of these kinds of network includes monitoring of pollutants (chemical, biological, and nuclear), oil fields detection, prediction of the likelihood of a tsunami in coastal areas, the use of wireless sensor nodes to monitor the passing submarines, and determination of appropriate locations for anchoring ships. This paper proposes a boundary coverage algorithm for intrusion detection in underwater sensor networks. In the first phase of the proposed algorithm, optimal deployment of nodes is done in the water. In the second phase, after the employment of nodes at the proper depth, clustering is executed to reduce the exchanges of messages between the sensors. In the third phase, the algorithm of "divide and conquer" is used to save energy and increase network efficiency. The simulation results demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed algorithm.

Keywords: boundary coverage, clustering, divide and ‎conquer, underwater sensor nodes

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Authors: Vittoria Franchina, Laura Salerno, Rubinia Celeste Bonfanti, Gianluca Lo Coco

Abstract:

This study examines the relationships between existential concerns (ECs), basic psychological needs (BPNs), vaccine hesitancy (VH), and the mediating role of negative attitudes toward COVID-19 vaccines. A cross-sectional survey was carried out on a sample of two-hundred eighty-seven adults (Mage = 36.04 (12.07); 59.9% females). Participants were recruited online through clickworker and filled in measures on existential concerns, basic psychological needs, attitudes toward COVID-19 vaccines, and vaccine hesitancy for Pfizer-BioNTech and Astrazeneca vaccines separately. Structural equation modelling showed that existential concerns were related to Pfizer-BioNTech and Astrazeneca vaccine hesitancy both directly and indirectly through negative attitudes toward possible side effects of COVID-19 vaccines. The present study has identified several predictive factors relating to the intention to uptake vaccination to protect against COVID-19 in Italy. Specifically, these findings suggest a causal link between existential concerns, attitudes, and vaccine hesitancy.

Keywords: COVID-19, existential concerns, Pfizer-BioNTech and Astrazeneca vaccines, vaccine hesitancy

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Authors: Ranya Elkhayat

Abstract:

This paper aims at offering a futures study for higher education in the Middle East. Paying special attention to the negative impacts of neoliberalism, the paper will demonstrate how higher education is now commodified, corporatized and how arts and humanities are eschewed in favor of science and technology. This conceptual paper argues against the neoliberal agenda and aims at providing an alternative exemplified in the Capabilities Approach with special reference to Martha Nussbaum’s theory. The paper is divided into four main parts: the current state of higher education under neoliberal values, a prediction of the conditions of higher education in the near future, the future of higher education using the theoretical framework of the Capabilities Approach, and finally, some areas of concern regarding the approach. The implications of the study demonstrate that Nussbaum’s Capabilities Approach will ensure that the values of education are preserved while avoiding the pitfalls of neoliberalism.

Keywords: capabilities approach, education future, higher education, MENA

Procedia PDF Downloads 198

Authors: Reini S. Ilmiaty, Muhammad B. Al Amin, Sarino, Muzamil Jariski

Abstract:

Kedukan River is an artificial river which serves as a Watershed Boang drainage channel in Palembang. The river has upstream and downstream connected to Musi River, that often overflowing and flooding caused by the huge runoff discharge and high tide water level of Musi River. This study aimed to analyze the flood water surface profile on Kedukan River continued with flood inundation simulation to determine flooding prone areas in research area. The analysis starts from the peak runoff discharge calculations using rational method followed by water surface profile analysis using HEC-RAS program controlled by manual calculations using standard stages. The analysis followed by running flood inundation simulation using ArcGIS program that has been integrated with HEC-GeoRAS. Flood inundation simulation on Kedukan River creates inundation characteristic maps with depth, area, and circumference of inundation as the parameters. The inundation maps are very useful in providing an overview of flood prone areas in Kedukan River.

Keywords: flood modelling, HEC-GeoRAS, HEC-RAS, inundation map

Procedia PDF Downloads 516