Search results for: numerical%20predictive%20model
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 3485

Search results for: numerical%20predictive%20model

1535 Study of the Stability of the Slope Open-Pit Mines: Case of the Mine of Phosphates – Tebessa, Algeria

Authors: Mohamed Fredj, Abdallah Hafsaoui, Radouane Nakache

Abstract:

The study of the stability of the mining works in rock masses fractured is the major concern of the operating engineer. For geotechnical works in mines and quarries, it there is not today's general methodology for analysis and the quantification of the risks relating to the dangers inherent in these concrete types (falling boulders, landslides, etc.). The reasons for this are uncertainty, which weighs on available data or lack of knowledge of the values of the parameters required for this analysis type. Stability calculations must be based on reliable knowledge of the distribution of discontinuities that dissect the Rocky massif and the resistance to shear of the intact rock and discontinuities. This study is aimed to study the stability of slope of mine (Kef Sennoun - Tebessa, Algeria). The problem is analyzed using a numerical model based on the finite elements (software Plaxis 3D).

Keywords: stability, discontinuities, finite elements, rock mass, open-pit mine

Procedia PDF Downloads 300
1534 Optimal Linear Quadratic Digital Tracker for the Discrete-Time Proper System with an Unknown Disturbance

Authors: Jason Sheng-Hong Tsai, Faezeh Ebrahimzadeh, Min-Ching Chung, Shu-Mei Guo, Leang-San Shieh, Tzong-Jiy Tsai, Li Wang

Abstract:

In this paper, we first construct a new state and disturbance estimator using discrete-time proportional plus integral observer to estimate the system state and the unknown external disturbance for the discrete-time system with an input-to-output direct-feedthrough term. Then, the generalized optimal linear quadratic digital tracker design is applied to construct a proportional plus integral observer-based tracker for the system with an unknown external disturbance to have a desired tracking performance. Finally, a numerical simulation is given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the new application of our proposed approach.

Keywords: non-minimum phase system, optimal linear quadratic tracker, proportional plus integral observer, state and disturbance estimator

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1533 Fourier Galerkin Approach to Wave Equation with Absorbing Boundary Conditions

Authors: Alexandra Leukauf, Alexander Schirrer, Emir Talic

Abstract:

Numerical computation of wave propagation in a large domain usually requires significant computational effort. Hence, the considered domain must be truncated to a smaller domain of interest. In addition, special boundary conditions, which absorb the outward travelling waves, need to be implemented in order to describe the system domains correctly. In this work, the linear one dimensional wave equation is approximated by utilizing the Fourier Galerkin approach. Furthermore, the artificial boundaries are realized with absorbing boundary conditions. Within this work, a systematic work flow for setting up the wave problem, including the absorbing boundary conditions, is proposed. As a result, a convenient modal system description with an effective absorbing boundary formulation is established. Moreover, the truncated model shows high accuracy compared to the global domain.

Keywords: absorbing boundary conditions, boundary control, Fourier Galerkin approach, modal approach, wave equation

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1532 Inverse Dynamics of the Mould Base of Blow Molding Machines

Authors: Vigen Arakelian

Abstract:

This paper deals with the study of devices for displacement of the mould base of blow-molding machines. The displacement of the mould in the studied case is carried out by a linear actuator, which ensures the descent of the mould base and by extension springs, which return the letter in the initial position. The aim of this paper is to study the inverse dynamics of the device for displacement of the mould base of blow-molding machines and to determine its optimum parameters for higher rate of production. In the other words, it is necessary to solve the inverse dynamic problem to find the equation of motion linking applied forces with displacements. This makes it possible to determine the stiffness coefficient of the spring to turn the mold base back to the initial position for a given time. The obtained results are illustrated by a numerical example. It is shown that applying a spring with stiffness returns the mould base of the blow molding machine into the initial position in 0.1 sec.

Keywords: design, mechanisms, dynamics, blow-molding machines

Procedia PDF Downloads 135
1531 A Wall Law for Two-Phase Turbulent Boundary Layers

Authors: Dhahri Maher, Aouinet Hana

Abstract:

The presence of bubbles in the boundary layer introduces corrections into the log law, which must be taken into account. In this work, a logarithmic wall law was presented for bubbly two phase flows. The wall law presented in this work was based on the postulation of additional turbulent viscosity associated with bubble wakes in the boundary layer. The presented wall law contained empirical constant accounting both for shear induced turbulence interaction and for non-linearity of bubble. This constant was deduced from experimental data. The wall friction prediction achieved with the wall law was compared to the experimental data, in the case of a turbulent boundary layer developing on a vertical flat plate in the presence of millimetric bubbles. A very good agreement between experimental and numerical wall friction prediction was verified. The agreement was especially noticeable for the low void fraction when bubble induced turbulence plays a significant role.

Keywords: bubbly flows, log law, boundary layer, CFD

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1530 Three-Dimensional Numerical Simulation of Drops Suspended in Poiseuille Flow: Effect of Reynolds Number

Authors: A. Nourbakhsh

Abstract:

A finite difference/front tracking method is used to study the motion of three-dimensional deformable drops suspended in plane Poiseuille flow at non-zero Reynolds numbers. A parallel version of the code was used to study the behavior of suspension on a reasonable grid resolution (grids). The viscosity and density of drops are assumed to be equal to that of the suspending medium. The effect of the Reynolds number is studied in detail. It is found that drops with small deformation behave like rigid particles and migrate to an equilibrium position about half way between the wall and the center line (the Segre-Silberberg effect). However, for highly deformable drops there is a tendency for drops to migrate to the middle of the channel, and the maximum concentration occurs at the center line. The effective viscosity of suspension and the fluctuation energy of the flow across the channel increases with the Reynolds number of the flow.

Keywords: suspensions, Poiseuille flow, effective viscosity, Reynolds number

Procedia PDF Downloads 344
1529 The Effect of Opening on Mode Shapes and Frequencies of Composite Shear Wall

Authors: A. Arabzadeh, H. R. Kazemi Nia Korrani

Abstract:

Composite steel plate shear wall is a lateral loading resistance system, which is used especially in tall buildings. This wall is made of a thin steel plate with reinforced a concrete cover, which is attached to one or both sides of the steel plate. This system is similar to stiffened steel plate shear wall, in which reinforced concrete replaces the steel stiffeners. Composite shear wall have in-plane and out-plane significant strength. Also, they have appropriate ductility. The present numerical investigations were focused on the effects of opening on wall mode shapes. In addition, frequencies of composite shear wall with and without opening are compared. For analyzing composite shear wall, a new program will be developed using of finite element theory and the effects of shape, size and position openings on the behavior of composite shear wall will be studied. Results indicated that the existence of opening decreases wall frequency.

Keywords: composite shear wall, opening, finite element method, modal analysis

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1528 Stimulated Raman Scattering of Ultra Intense Hollow Gaussian Beam

Authors: Prerana Sharma

Abstract:

Effect of relativistic nonlinearity on stimulated Raman scattering of the propagating laser beam carrying null intensity in center (hollow Gaussian beam) by excited plasma wave are studied in a collisionless plasma. The construction of the equations is done employing the fluid theory which is developed with partial differential equation and Maxwell’s equations. The analysis is done using eikonal method. The phenonmenon of Stimulated Raman scattering is shown along with the excitation of seed plasma wave. The power of plasma wave and back reflectivity is observed for higher order of hollow Gaussian beam. Back reflectivity is studied numerically for various orders of HGLB with different value of plasma density, laser power and beam radius. Numerical analysis shows that these parameters play vital role on reflectivity characteristics.

Keywords: Hollow Gaussian beam, relativistic nonlinearity, plasma physics, Raman scattering

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1527 Voxel Models as Input for Heat Transfer Simulations with Siemens NX Based on X-Ray Microtomography Images of Random Fibre Reinforced Composites

Authors: Steven Latré, Frederik Desplentere, Ilya Straumit, Stepan V. Lomov

Abstract:

A method is proposed in order to create a three-dimensional finite element model representing fibre reinforced insulation materials for the simulation software Siemens NX. VoxTex software, a tool for quantification of µCT images of fibrous materials, is used for the transformation of microtomography images of random fibre reinforced composites into finite element models. An automatic tool was developed to execute the import of the models to the thermal solver module of Siemens NX. The paper describes the numerical tools used for the image quantification and the transformation and illustrates them on several thermal simulations of fibre reinforced insulation blankets filled with low thermal conductive fillers. The calculation of thermal conductivity is validated by comparison with the experimental data.

Keywords: analysis, modelling, thermal, voxel

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1526 Novel Technique for calculating Surface Potential Gradient of Overhead Line Conductors

Authors: Sudip Sudhir Godbole

Abstract:

In transmission line surface potential gradient is a critical design parameter for planning overhead line, as it determines the level of corona loss (CL), radio interference (RI) and audible noise (AN).With increase of transmission line voltage level bulk power transfer is possible, using bundle conductor configuration used, it is more complex to find accurate surface stress in bundle configuration. The majority of existing models for surface gradient calculations are based on analytical methods which restrict their application in simulating complex surface geometry. This paper proposes a novel technique which utilizes both analytical and numerical procedure to predict the surface gradient. One of 400 kV transmission line configurations has been selected as an example to compare the results for different methods. The different strand shapes are a key variable in determining.

Keywords: surface gradient, Maxwell potential coefficient method, market and Mengele’s method, successive images method, charge simulation method, finite element method

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1525 Investigation and Analysis of Vortex-Induced Vibrations in Sliding Gate Valves Using Computational Fluid Dynamics

Authors: Kianoosh Ahadi, Mustafa Ergil

Abstract:

In this study, the event of vibrations caused by vortexes and the distribution of induced hydrodynamic forces due to vortexes on the sliding gate valves has been investigated. For this reason, a sliding valve with the help of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) software was simulated in two-dimensional )2D(, where the flow and turbulence equations were solved for three different valve openings (full, half, and 16.7 %) models. The variety of vortexes formed within the vicinity of the valve structure was investigated based on time where the trend of fluctuations and their occurrence regions have been detected. From the gathered solution dataset of the numerical simulations, the pressure coefficient (CP), the lift force coefficient (CL), the drag force coefficient (CD), and the momentum coefficient due to hydrodynamic forces (CM) were examined, and relevant figures were generated were from these results, the vortex-induced vibrations were analyzed.

Keywords: induced vibrations, computational fluid dynamics, sliding gate valves, vortexes

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1524 Effect of Tillage Technology on Species Composition of Weeds in Monoculture of Maize

Authors: Svetlana Chovancova, Frantisek Illek, Jan Winkler

Abstract:

The effect of tillage technology of maize on intensity of weed infestation and weed species composition was observed at experimental field. Maize is grown consecutively since 2001. The experimental site is situated at an altitude of 230 m above sea level in the Czech Republic. Variants of tillage technology are CT: plowing – conventional tillage 0.22 m, MT: loosening – disc tillage on the depth of 0.1 – 0.12 m, NT: direct sowing – without tillage. The evaluation of weed infestation was carried out by numerical method in years 2012 and 2013. Within the monitoring were found 20 various species of weeds. Conventional tillage (CT) primarily supports the occurrence of perennial weeds (Cirsium arvense, Convolvulus arvensis). Late spring species (Chenopodium album, Echinochloa crus-galli) were more frequently noticed on variants of loosening (MT) and direct sowing (NT). Different tillage causes a significant change of weed species spectrum in maize.

Keywords: weeds, maize, tillage, loosening, direct sowing

Procedia PDF Downloads 449
1523 Smart Monitoring and Control of Tap Changer Using Intelligent Electronic Device

Authors: K. N. Dinesh Babu, M. V. Gopalan, G. R. Manjunatha, R. Ramaprabha, V. Rajini

Abstract:

In this paper, monitoring and control of tap changer mechanism of a transformer implementation in an intelligent electronic device (IED) is discussed. Its been a custom for decades to provide a separate panel for on load tap changer control for monitoring the tap position. However this facility cannot either record or transfer the information to remote control centers. As there is a technology shift towards the smart grid protection and control standards, the need for implementing remote control and monitoring has necessitated the implementation of this feature in numerical relays. This paper deals with the programming, settings and logic implementation which is applicable to both IEC 61850 compatible and non-compatible IEDs thereby eliminating the need for separate tap changer control equipment. The monitoring mechanism has been implemented in a 28MVA, 110 /6.9kV transformer with 16 tap position with GE make T60 IED at Ultratech cement limited Gulbarga, Karnataka and is in successful service.

Keywords: transformer protection, tap changer control, tap position monitoring, on load tap changer, intelligent electronic device (IED)

Procedia PDF Downloads 578
1522 Investigation of the Stability of the F* Iterative Algorithm on Strong Peudocontractive Mappings and Its Applications

Authors: Felix Damilola Ajibade, Opeyemi O. Enoch, Taiwo Paul Fajusigbe

Abstract:

This paper is centered on conducting an inquiry into the stability of the F* iterative algorithm to the fixed point of a strongly pseudo-contractive mapping in the framework of uniformly convex Banach spaces. To achieve the desired result, certain existing inequalities in convex Banach spaces were utilized, as well as the stability criteria of Harder and Hicks. Other necessary conditions for the stability of the F* algorithm on strong pseudo-contractive mapping were also obtained. Through a numerical approach, we prove that the F* iterative algorithm is H-stable for strongly pseudo-contractive mapping. Finally, the solution of the mixed-type Volterra-Fredholm functional non-linear integral equation is estimated using our results.

Keywords: stability, F* -iterative algorithm, pseudo-contractive mappings, uniformly convex Banach space, mixed-type Volterra-Fredholm integral equation

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1521 Numerical Analysis and Design of Dielectric to Plasmonic Waveguides Couplers

Authors: Emanuela Paranhos Lima, Vitaly Félix Rodríguez Esquerre

Abstract:

In this work, efficient directional coupler composed of dielectric waveguides and metallic film has been analyzed in details by simulations using finite element method (FEM). The structure consists of a step-index fiber with dielectric core, silica cladding, and a metal nanowire parallel to the core. The results show that an efficient conversion of optical dielectric modes to long range plasmonic is possible. Low insertion losses in conjunction with short coupling length and a broadband operation can be achieved under certain conditions. This kind of couplers has potential applications for the design of photonic integrated circuits for signal routing between dielectric/plasmonic waveguides, sensing, lithography, and optical storage systems. A high efficient focusing of light in a very small region can be obtained.

Keywords: directional coupler, finite element method, metallic nanowire, plasmonic, surface plasmon polariton, superfocusing

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1520 Comparison of the Performance of GaInAsSb and GaSb Cells under Different Temperature Blackbody Radiations

Authors: Liangliang Tang, Chang Xu, Xingying Chen

Abstract:

GaInAsSb cells probably show better performance than GaSb cells in low-temperature thermophotovoltaic systems due to lower bandgap; however, few experiments proved this phenomenon so far. In this paper, numerical simulation is used to evaluate GaInAsSb and GaSb cells with similar structures under different radiation temperatures. We found that GaInAsSb cells with n-type emitters show slightly higher output power densities compared with that of GaSb cells with n-type emitters below 1,550 K-blackbody radiation, and the power density of the later cells will suppress the formers above this temperature point. During the temperature range of 1,000~2,000 K, the efficiencies of GaSb cells are about twice of GaInAsSb cells if perfect filters are used to prevent the emission of the non-absorbed long wavelength photons. Several parameters that affect the GaInAsSb cell were analyzed, such as doping profiles, thicknesses of GaInAsSb epitaxial layer and surface recombination velocity. The non-p junctions, i.e., n-type emitters are better for GaInAsSb cell fabrication, which is similar to that of GaSb cells.

Keywords: thermophotovoltaic cell, GaSb, GaInAsSb, diffused emitters

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1519 Investigate and Solving Analytically at Vibrational structures (In Arched Beam to Bridges) by New Method “AGM”

Authors: M. R. Akbari, P. Soleimani, R. Khalili, Sara Akbari

Abstract:

Analyzing and modeling the vibrational behavior of arched bridges during the earthquake in order to decrease the exerted damages to the structure is a very hard task to do. This item has been done analytically in the present paper for the first time. Due to the importance of building arched bridges as a great structure in the human being civilization and its specifications such as transferring vertical loads to its arcs and the lack of bending moments and shearing forces, this case study is devoted to this special issue. Here, the nonlinear vibration of arched bridges has been modeled and simulated by an arched beam with harmonic vertical loads and its behavior has been investigated by analyzing a nonlinear partial differential equation governing the system. It is notable that the procedure has been done analytically by AGM (Akbari, Ganji Method). Furthermore, comparisons have been made between the obtained results by numerical Method (rkf-45) and AGM in order to assess the scientific validity.

Keywords: new method (AGM), arched beam bridges, angular frequency, harmonic loads

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1518 Simulation of Heat Exchanger Behavior during LOCA Accident in THTL Test Loop

Authors: R. Mahmoodi, A. R. Zolfaghari

Abstract:

In nuclear power plants, loss of coolant from the primary system is the type of reduced removed capacity that is given most attention; such an accident is referred as Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA). In the current study, investigation of shell and tube THTL heat exchanger behavior during LOCA is implemented by ANSYS CFX simulation software in both steady state and transient mode of turbulent fluid flow according to experimental conditions. Numerical results obtained from ANSYS CFX simulation show good agreement with experimental data of THTL heat exchanger. The results illustrate that in large break LOCA as short term accident, heat exchanger could not fast response to temperature variables but in the long term, the temperature of shell side of heat exchanger will be increase.

Keywords: shell-and-tube heat exchanger, shell-side, CFD, flow and heat transfer, LOCA

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1517 Formulating the Stochastic Finite Elements for Free Vibration Analysis of Plates with Variable Elastic Modulus

Authors: Mojtaba Aghamiri Esfahani, Mohammad Karkon, Seyed Majid Hosseini Nezhad, Reza Hosseini-Ara

Abstract:

In this study, the effect of uncertainty in elastic modulus of a plate on free vibration response is investigated. For this purpose, the elastic modulus of the plate is modeled as stochastic variable with normal distribution. Moreover, the distance autocorrelation function is used for stochastic field. Then, by applying the finite element method and Monte Carlo simulation, stochastic finite element relations are extracted. Finally, with a numerical test, the effect of uncertainty in the elastic modulus on free vibration response of a plate is studied. The results show that the effect of uncertainty in elastic modulus of the plate cannot play an important role on the free vibration response.

Keywords: stochastic finite elements, plate bending, free vibration, Monte Carlo, Neumann expansion method.

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1516 2D RF ICP Torch Modelling with Fluid Plasma

Authors: Mokhtar Labiod, Nabil Ikhlef, Keltoum Bouherine, Olivier Leroy

Abstract:

A numerical model for the radio-frequency (RF) Argon discharge chamber is developed to simulate the low pressure low temperature inductively coupled plasma. This model will be of fundamental importance in the design of the plasma magnetic control system. Electric and magnetic fields inside the discharge chamber are evaluated by solving a magnetic vector potential equation. To start with, the equations of the ideal magnetohydrodynamics theory will be presented describing the basic behaviour of magnetically confined plasma and equations are discretized with finite element method in cylindrical coordinates. The discharge chamber is assumed to be axially symmetric and the plasma is treated as a compressible gas. Plasma generation due to ionization is added to the continuity equation. Magnetic vector potential equation is solved for the electromagnetic fields. A strong dependence of the plasma properties on the discharge conditions and the gas temperature is obtained.

Keywords: direct-coupled model, magnetohydrodynamic, modelling, plasma torch simulation

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1515 Implicit Eulerian Fluid-Structure Interaction Method for the Modeling of Highly Deformable Elastic Membranes

Authors: Aymen Laadhari, Gábor Székely

Abstract:

This paper is concerned with the development of a fully implicit and purely Eulerian fluid-structure interaction method tailored for the modeling of the large deformations of elastic membranes in a surrounding Newtonian fluid. We consider a simplified model for the mechanical properties of the membrane, in which the surface strain energy depends on the membrane stretching. The fully Eulerian description is based on the advection of a modified surface tension tensor, and the deformations of the membrane are tracked using a level set strategy. The resulting nonlinear problem is solved by a Newton-Raphson method, featuring a quadratic convergence behavior. A monolithic solver is implemented, and we report several numerical experiments aimed at model validation and illustrating the accuracy of the presented method. We show that stability is maintained for significantly larger time steps.

Keywords: finite element method, implicit, level set, membrane, Newton method

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1514 Simulation of Wave Propagation in Multiphase Medium

Authors: Edip Kemal, Sheshov Vlatko, Bojadjieva Julijana, Bogdanovic ALeksandra, Gjorgjeska Irena

Abstract:

The wave propagation phenomenon in porous domains is of great importance in the field of geotechnical earthquake engineering. In these kinds of problems, the elastic waves propagate from the interior to the exterior domain and require special treatment at the computational level since apart from displacement in the solid-state there is a p-wave that takes place in the pore water phase. In this paper, a study on the implementation of multiphase finite elements is presented. The proposed algorithm is implemented in the ANSYS finite element software and tested on one-dimensional wave propagation considering both pore pressure wave propagation and displacement fields. In the simulation of porous media such as soils, the behavior is governed largely by the interaction of the solid skeleton with water and/or air in the pores. Therefore, coupled problems of fluid flow and deformation of the solid skeleton are considered in a detailed way.

Keywords: wave propagation, multiphase model, numerical methods, finite element method

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1513 A New Aggregation Operator for Trapezoidal Fuzzy Numbers Based On the Geometric Means of the Left and Right Line Slopes

Authors: Manju Pandey, Nilay Khare, S. C. Shrivastava

Abstract:

This paper is the final in a series, which has defined two new classes of aggregation operators for triangular and trapezoidal fuzzy numbers based on the geometrical characteristics of their fuzzy membership functions. In the present paper, a new aggregation operator for trapezoidal fuzzy numbers has been defined. The new operator is based on the geometric mean of the membership lines to the left and right of the maximum possibility interval. The operator is defined and the analytical relationships have been derived. Computation of the aggregate is demonstrated with a numerical example. Corresponding arithmetic and geometric aggregates as well as results from the recent work of the authors on TrFN aggregates have also been computed.

Keywords: LR fuzzy number, interval fuzzy number, triangular fuzzy number, trapezoidal fuzzy number, apex angle, left apex angle, right apex angle, aggregation operator, arithmetic and geometric mean

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1512 Presenting a Job Scheduling Algorithm Based on Learning Automata in Computational Grid

Authors: Roshanak Khodabakhsh Jolfaei, Javad Akbari Torkestani

Abstract:

As a cooperative environment for problem-solving, it is necessary that grids develop efficient job scheduling patterns with regard to their goals, domains and structure. Since the Grid environments facilitate distributed calculations, job scheduling appears in the form of a critical problem for the management of Grid sources that influences severely on the efficiency for the whole Grid environment. Due to the existence of some specifications such as sources dynamicity and conditions of the network in Grid, some algorithm should be presented to be adjustable and scalable with increasing the network growth. For this purpose, in this paper a job scheduling algorithm has been presented on the basis of learning automata in computational Grid which the performance of its results were compared with FPSO algorithm (Fuzzy Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm) and GJS algorithm (Grid Job Scheduling algorithm). The obtained numerical results indicated the superiority of suggested algorithm in comparison with FPSO and GJS. In addition, the obtained results classified FPSO and GJS in the second and third position respectively after the mentioned algorithm.

Keywords: computational grid, job scheduling, learning automata, dynamic scheduling

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1511 Solar Power Forecasting for the Bidding Zones of the Italian Electricity Market with an Analog Ensemble Approach

Authors: Elena Collino, Dario A. Ronzio, Goffredo Decimi, Maurizio Riva

Abstract:

The rapid increase of renewable energy in Italy is led by wind and solar installations. The 2017 Italian energy strategy foresees a further development of these sustainable technologies, especially solar. This fact has resulted in new opportunities, challenges, and different problems to deal with. The growth of renewables allows to meet the European requirements regarding energy and environmental policy, but these types of sources are difficult to manage because they are intermittent and non-programmable. Operationally, these characteristics can lead to instability on the voltage profile and increasing uncertainty on energy reserve scheduling. The increasing renewable production must be considered with more and more attention especially by the Transmission System Operator (TSO). The TSO, in fact, every day provides orders on energy dispatch, once the market outcome has been determined, on extended areas, defined mainly on the basis of power transmission limitations. In Italy, six market zone are defined: Northern-Italy, Central-Northern Italy, Central-Southern Italy, Southern Italy, Sardinia, and Sicily. An accurate hourly renewable power forecasting for the day-ahead on these extended areas brings an improvement both in terms of dispatching and reserve management. In this study, an operational forecasting tool of the hourly solar output for the six Italian market zones is presented, and the performance is analysed. The implementation is carried out by means of a numerical weather prediction model, coupled with a statistical post-processing in order to derive the power forecast on the basis of the meteorological projection. The weather forecast is obtained from the limited area model RAMS on the Italian territory, initialized with IFS-ECMWF boundary conditions. The post-processing calculates the solar power production with the Analog Ensemble technique (AN). This statistical approach forecasts the production using a probability distribution of the measured production registered in the past when the weather scenario looked very similar to the forecasted one. The similarity is evaluated for the components of the solar radiation: global (GHI), diffuse (DIF) and direct normal (DNI) irradiation, together with the corresponding azimuth and zenith solar angles. These are, in fact, the main factors that affect the solar production. Considering that the AN performance is strictly related to the length and quality of the historical data a training period of more than one year has been used. The training set is made by historical Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) forecasts at 12 UTC for the GHI, DIF and DNI variables over the Italian territory together with corresponding hourly measured production for each of the six zones. The AN technique makes it possible to estimate the aggregate solar production in the area, without information about the technologic characteristics of the all solar parks present in each area. Besides, this information is often only partially available. Every day, the hourly solar power forecast for the six Italian market zones is made publicly available through a website.

Keywords: analog ensemble, electricity market, PV forecast, solar energy

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1510 Thermal Expansion Coefficient and Young’s Modulus of Silica-Reinforced Epoxy Composite

Authors: Hyu Sang Jo, Gyo Woo Lee

Abstract:

In this study, the evaluation of thermal stability of the micrometer-sized silica particle reinforced epoxy composite was carried out through the measurement of thermal expansion coefficient and Young’s modulus of the specimens. For all the specimens in this study from the baseline to those containing 50 wt% silica filler, the thermal expansion coefficients and the Young’s moduli were gradually decreased down to 20% and increased up to 41%, respectively. The experimental results were compared with filler-volume-based simple empirical relations. The experimental results of thermal expansion coefficients correspond with those of Thomas’s model which is modified from the rule of mixture. However, the measured result for Young’s modulus tends to be increased slightly. The differences in increments of the moduli between experimental and numerical model data are quite large.

Keywords: thermal stability, silica-reinforced, epoxy composite, coefficient of thermal expansion, empirical model

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1509 Productivity, Labour Flexibility, and Migrant Workers in Hotels: An Establishment and Departmental Level Analysis

Authors: Natina Yaduma, Allan Williams, Sangwon Park, Andrew Lockwood

Abstract:

This paper analyses flexible working, and the employment of migrants, as determinants of productivity in hotels. Controlling for the institutional environment, by focussing on a single firm, it analyses data on actual hours worked and outputs, on a weekly basis, over an 8 year period. The unusually disaggregated data allows the paper to examine not only inter-establishment, but also intra-establishment (departmental) variations in productivity, and to compare financial versus physical measures. The findings emphasise the complexity of productivity findings, sometimes contrasting evidence for establishments versus departments, and the positive but scale and measure-specific contributions of both the employment of migrants and flexible working, especially the utilisation of zero hours contracts.

Keywords: labour productivity, physical productivity, financial productivity, numerical flexibility, functional flexibility, migrant employment, cero-contract employment

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1508 Optimal Production Planning in Aromatic Coconuts Supply Chain Based on Mixed-Integer Linear Programming

Authors: Chaimongkol Limpianchob

Abstract:

This work addresses the problem of production planning that arises in the production of aromatic coconuts from Samudsakhorn province in Thailand. The planning involves the forwarding of aromatic coconuts from the harvest areas to the factory, which is classified into two groups; self-owned areas and contracted areas, the decisions of aromatic coconuts flow in the plant, and addressing a question of which warehouse will be in use. The problem is formulated as a mixed-integer linear programming model within supply chain management framework. The objective function seeks to minimize the total cost including the harvesting, labor and inventory costs. Constraints on the system include the production activities in the company and demand requirements. Numerical results are presented to demonstrate the feasibility of coconuts supply chain model compared with base case.

Keywords: aromatic coconut, supply chain management, production planning, mixed-integer linear programming

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1507 Performance of Armchair Graphene Nanoribbon Resonant Tunneling Diode under Uniaxial Strain

Authors: Milad Zoghi, M. Zahangir Kabir

Abstract:

Performance of armchair graphene nanoribbon (AGNR) resonant tunneling diodes (RTD) alter if they go under strain. This may happen due to either using stretchable substrates or real working conditions such as heat generation. Therefore, it is informative to understand how mechanical deformations such as uniaxial strain can impact the performance of AGNR RTDs. In this paper, two platforms of AGNR RTD consist of width-modified AGNR RTD and electric-field modified AGNR RTD are subjected to both compressive and tensile uniaxial strain ranging from -2% to +2%. It is found that characteristics of AGNR RTD markedly change under both compressive and tensile strain. In particular, peak to valley ratio (PVR) can be totally disappeared upon strong enough strain deformation. Numerical tight binding (TB) coupled with Non-Equilibrium Green's Function (NEGF) is derived for this study to calculate corresponding Hamiltonian matrices and transport properties.

Keywords: armchair graphene nanoribbon, resonant tunneling diode, uniaxial strain, peak to valley ratio

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1506 A Generalized Family of Estimators for Estimation of Unknown Population Variance in Simple Random Sampling

Authors: Saba Riaz, Syed A. Hussain

Abstract:

This paper is addressing the estimation method of the unknown population variance of the variable of interest. A new generalized class of estimators of the finite population variance has been suggested using the auxiliary information. To improve the precision of the proposed class, known population variance of the auxiliary variable has been used. Mathematical expressions for the biases and the asymptotic variances of the suggested class are derived under large sample approximation. Theoretical and numerical comparisons are made to investigate the performances of the proposed class of estimators. The empirical study reveals that the suggested class of estimators performs better than the usual estimator, classical ratio estimator, classical product estimator and classical linear regression estimator. It has also been found that the suggested class of estimators is also more efficient than some recently published estimators.

Keywords: study variable, auxiliary variable, finite population variance, bias, asymptotic variance, percent relative efficiency

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