Search results for: financial history

Authors: Soungwan Kim

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This paper discusses an analysis of how the characteristics of resources at vocational rehabilitation facilities for the disabled affect the improvement of independency skills among people with severe disabilities. The analysis results indicate that more internal financial resources and more connections to local communities among network resources had greater effects on improving the independency of people with severe disabilities. Based on this result, this paper presents strategies for mobilizing resources to improve the independency of people with severe disabilities at vocational rehabilitation facilities.

Keywords: vocational rehabilitation facility for people with disabilities, types of resources, independency, network resources

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Authors: Athari Farhani

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Abstract The existence of space debris is a direct implication of human activities in outer space. The amount of orbital debris resulting from human exploration and use of outer space has been steadily increasing in the history of human exploration and use of outer space, so that space debris in the responsibility of the launching state. Space debris not only hs a direct impact on environmentalpollution but can also harm and endanger the safety of human life. Despite the legal provisions governing the exploration and use of outer space, both international space law and liability convention, however, these legal provisions are only basic prinsiples, so that further thought or effort are needed, such as new international legal instruments to regulate the existence of space debris. The method used in this research is normative juridical with an approach to written legal regulation, especially international agreements related to space law.

Keywords: state’s responsibility, space debris, outerspace, international law

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Authors: Muhammad Abdullahi Mago

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Islamic Banking began in Nigeria last three years and the sector has shown the sign of bright future for the sector and the Nigerian economy, within this very short time it is important to know the perception of the customers particularly learned or educated individuals for immediate evaluation and adjustment. This study investigates into the perception, awareness and attitudes of the academicians in the most populous state/place in Nigeria with more than 90% muslims, and the results has shown a relatively low levels results in all the variables of the study.The study recommends aggressive marketing strategy for the Banks operating within the sector.

Keywords: Islamic Banking Products, Islamic Financial Products, academicians, Islamic finance industry, perception, awareness and attitude

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Authors: M. Hakami, A. Jammaly, I. Attafi, M. Oraiby, M. Jeraiby

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We reviewed an unusual case of a 65-year-old male taking an herbal mixture containing compounds with anticholinesterase activity for a long period of time, presented with acute my myocardial infarction and multiple organ dysfunction syndrome followed by death. Clinically, there are findings correlated with anticholinesterase activity, such as bilateral miosis, diaphoresis, vomiting and fasciculation without a history of any toxic ingestion or exposure. Gas chromatography–mass spectrometry screening studies identified the presence of thymol, anethole in the herbal extract and butylated hydroxytoluene in the blood sample. Hence, with this case report, we intend to highlight the necessity of evaluating the long-term use of the herbal mixture.

Keywords: cholinesterase inhibitors, thymole, anethole, butylatedhydroxytoluene, cardiac toxicity, myocardial infarction

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Authors: Jeffrey M. Byford

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The conceptualized theory of decision making on historical events often does not conform to uniform beliefs among students. When presented the opportunity, many students have differing opinions and rationales associated with historical events and outcomes. The intent of this paper was to provide students with the economic, social and political dilemmas associated with the autonomy of East Berlin. Students ranked seven possible actions from the most to least acceptable. In addition, students were required to provide both positive and negative factors for each decision and relative ranking. Results from this activity suggested that while most students chose a financial action towards West Berlin, some students had trouble justifying their actions.

Keywords: content-centered learning, cold war, Berlin, decision-making

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Authors: Yousef Barahmeh

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There is a wide cultural belief that Jordanians are po-faced and unable to produce humour and satire. However, in the light of the harbingers of the Arab Spring in the early 2011, socio-political satire has thrived notably in social media as a rigorous act of critique and dissent against the institutionalized discourse. This paper seeks to explore the case study of Ahmad Hassan al-Zou’bi’s satirical articles and Facebook posts in the context of theories of satire and digital politics. Al-Zou’bi is the most prominent and prolific Jordanian satirist who rose to prominence after the Arab Spring. The analysis shows that his satirical articles provide a vintage point to the rhetoric behind the socio-political and economic reform programs as much as the adverse impact of neoliberal governments in the modern history of Jordan.

Keywords: Arab Spring, digital politics, humour and socio-political satire

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Authors: Tao Peng

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This paper presents a holistic model of political economy based on Daoism – the foundational philosophy of classical Chinese epistemology. Daoism is both comprehensive and subtle in its manifestations and applications in all aspects of nature and society. Based on Daoist creation theory of the universe, life theory and five element functioning theory, a holistic model in economics with minimal assumptions and independent of ideology are constructed. Under this framework, different schools of economics, such as neo-liberal, Marxism, and Austrian school, are explored and shed new light on. Economic and financial predictions can be realized in applications to Qi Men Dun Jia. This framework can provide guidelines and inspirations to economic modelling, economic policies formulation and strategy development and guide society towards a more sustainable future.

Keywords: daoism, economics, holistic, philosophy

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Authors: Tin Yee Ling, Kavita Maravar, Ruzica Ardalic

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Background: Uterine torsion (UT) in pregnancy of more than 45-degree along the longitudinal axis is a rare occurrence, and the aetiology remains unclear. Case: A 34-year-old G2P1 woman with a history of one previous caesarean section presented at 36+2 weeks with sudden onset lower abdominal pain, syncopal episode, and tender abdomen on examination. She was otherwise haemodynamically stable. Cardiotocography showed a pathological trace with initial prolonged bradycardia followed by a subsequent tachycardia with reduced variability. An initial diagnosis of uterine dehiscence was made, given the history and clinical presentation. She underwent an emergency caesarean section which revealed a 180-degree UT along the longitudinal axis, with oedematous left round ligament lying transverse anterior to the uterus and a segment of large bowel inferior to the round ligament. Detorsion of uterus was performed prior to delivery of the foetus, and anterior uterine wall was intact with no signs of rupture. There were no anatomical uterine abnormalities found other than stretched left ovarian and round ligaments, which were repaired. Delivery was otherwise uneventful, and she was discharged on day 2 postpartum. Discussion: UT is rare as the number of reported cases is within the few hundreds worldwide. Generally, the uterus is supported in place by uterine ligaments, which limit the mobility of the structure. The causes of UT are unknown, but risk factors such as uterine abnormalities, increased uterine ligaments’ flexibility in pregnancy, and foetal malposition has been identified. UT causes occlusion of uterine vessels, which can lead to ischaemic injury of the placenta causing premature separation of the placenta, preterm labour, and foetal morbidity and mortality if delivery is delayed. Diagnosing UT clinically is difficult as most women present with symptoms similar to placenta abruption or uterine rupture (abdominal pain, vaginal bleeding, shock), and one-third are asymptomatic. The management of UT involves surgical detorsion of the uterus and delivery of foetus via caesarean section. Extra vigilance should be taken to identify the anatomy of the uterus experiencing torsion prior to hysterotomy. There have been a few cases reported with hysterotomy on posterior uterine wall for delivery of foetus as it may be difficult to identify and reverse a gravid UT when foetal well-being is at stake. Conclusion: UT should be considered a differential diagnosis of acute abdominal pain in pregnancy. It is crucial that the torsion is addressed immediately as it is associated with maternal and foetal morbidity and mortality.

Keywords: uterine torsion, pregnancy complication, abdominal pain, torted uterus

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Authors: Boon Lee

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Research publication is an essential output of universities because it not only promotes university recognition, it also receives government funding. The history of university research culture has been one of ‘publish or perish’ and universities have consistently encouraged their academics and researchers to produce research articles in reputable journals in order to maintain a level of competitiveness. In turn, the United Kingdom (UK) government funding is determined by the number and quality of research publications. This paper aims to investigate on whether more government funding leads to more quality papers. To that end, the paper employs a Network DEA model to evaluate the UK higher education performance over a period. Sources of efficiency are also determined via second stage regression analysis.

Keywords: efficiency, higher education, network data envelopment analysis, universities

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Authors: Bahareh Zare

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The theory of the investment model of dating infidelity maintains that loyalty is an essential power within romantic relationships. Loyalty signifies both motivation and psychological attachment to maintain a relationship. This study examined the relationship between the Big Five Personality Factors (Extraversion, Neuroticism, Openness, Conscientiousness, and Agreeableness), probability of marital infidelity, and risk of divorce. The participants completed NEO-FFI, INFQ (infidelity questionnaire) and were interviewed by OHI (Oral History Interview). The results demonstrated that extraversion and agreeableness traits were significant predictors for the probability of infidelity and risk of divorce. In addition, conscientiousness predicted the probability of infidelity, while neuroticism predicted the risk of divorce.

Keywords: five factors personality, infidelity, risk of divorce, investment theory

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Authors: Azwin Lubis, Rika Hapsari, Zahrah Hikmah, Anang Endaryanto, Ariyanto Harsono

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Erythema Multiforme Exudativum Major (EMEM) is one of the drug allergy diseases. Drug allergies caused by isoniazid rarely causes EMEM. Cutaneous reactions caused by isoniazid were obtained in 0.98% of patients, but the precise occurrence of Steven Johnson’s Syndrome (SJS) and Toxic Epidermolisis Necrolisis (TEN) due to isoniazid is not known for certain. We present this case to show hypersensitivity of isoniazid in a child. Based on the history of drug intake, physical diagnostic tests, drug elimination and provocation; we established the diagnosis of isoniazid hypersensitivity. The child showed improvement on skin manifestation after stopped isoniazid therapy.

Keywords: erythema multiforme exudativum major, hypersensitivity, elimination test, provocation test

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Authors: Fatma Ülkü Kavruk

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The comparison of the old and new approaches reveals that the concept of equivalence has been interpreted and categorized in different ways by different scholars throughout the history. The aim of this study is to trace the concept of equivalence in translation theories from the linguistics-oriented era to present, referring to various translation scholars and to provide a critical evaluation of the nature and applicability of the concept of equivalence in today’s world of translation studies. Within the study, various interpretations of equivalence proposed by international scholars in translation studies are to be presented. In order to find out the reflections of these scholars’ approaches to the Turkish scholars’ research, the interpretations of equivalence by various Turkish scholars are to be examined. At the end of the paper, the applicability of the concept of equivalence in real life is to be discussed in light of these approaches.

Keywords: translation studies, equivalence, translation theories, evaluation

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Authors: Alka Obadić

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The research concentrates on the role of tourism in generating female employment and on impact of gender discrimination in tourism sector. Unfortunately, in many countries there are still some barriers to the inclusion of women at all hierarchical levels of tourism labor market. Research analysis focuses on EU countries where tourism is a main employer of women. The analysis shows that women represent over third persons employed in the non-financial business economy and almost two thirds in core tourism activities. Women's gross hourly earnings in accommodation and food services were below those of men in the European Union and only countries who recorded increase of gender pay gap from the beginning of crisis are Bulgaria and Croatia. Women in tourism industry are still overrepresented in lower status jobs with fewer opportunities for career progression and are often treated unequally.

Keywords: employment, gender discrimination, tourism, women’s participation

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Authors: Almoutassem Bellah Nasser

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This paper is aimed at calculating the intangible assets of Jordanian economy. This effort is a response to the demand from corporations for these services which reflects a perceived gap in internal and external financial reporting on intangible investments. The main conclusion of the paper is to suggest that the way forward to a standardized, more comparable approach to measuring intangible capital is to employ CIV method of valuation. Published macroeconomic data traditionally exclude most intangible investment from measured GDP. This situation is beginning to change as some attempts have been made to measure the amount of intangible assets. It was found that intangible assets account for $164.20 million in all the listed companies of Jordan. All this money does not appear on the balance sheets of these companies and hence requires special attention of policy makers for better utilization.

Keywords: intangible capital, stock prices, Amman Stock Exchange

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Authors: Hatim Elhag

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Banking and Financial Service Institutions are possibly the most advanced in terms of technology adoption and use it as a key differentiator. With high levels of business process automation, maturity in the functional portfolio, straight through processing and proven technology outsourcing benefits, Banking sector stand to benefit significantly from Cloud computing capabilities. Additionally, with complex Compliance and Regulatory policies, combined with expansive products and geography coverage, the business impact is even greater. While the benefits are exponential, there are also significant challenges in adopting this model– including Legal, Security, Performance, Reliability, Transformation complexity, Operating control and Governance and most importantly proof for the promised cost benefits. However, new architecture designed should be implemented to align this approach.

Keywords: security, cloud, banking sector, cloud computing

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Authors: Mehmet Sinan Erguven

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A number of authorities argue that radio is an outdated medium for advertising and does not have the same impact on consumers as it did in the past. This grim outlook on the future of radio has its basis in the audio-visual world that consumers now live in and the popularity of Internet-based marketing tools among advertising professionals. Nonetheless, consumers still appear to overwhelmingly prefer radio as an entertainment tool. Today, in Canada, 90% of all adults (18+) tune into the radio on a weekly basis, and they listen for 17 hours. Teens are the most challenging group for radio to capture as an audience, but still, almost 75% tune in weekly. One online radio station reaches more than 250 million registered listeners worldwide, and revenues from radio advertising in Australia are expected to grow at an annual rate of 3% for the foreseeable future. Radio is also starting to become popular again in Turkey, with a 5% increase in the listening rates compared to 2014. A major matter of concern always affecting radio advertising is creativity. As radio generally serves as a background medium for listeners, the creativity of the radio commercials is important in terms of attracting the attention of the listener and directing their focus on the advertising message. This cannot simply be done by using audio tools like sound effects and jingles. This study aims to identify the creative elements (execution formats appeals and approaches) and creativity factors of radio commercials in Turkey. As part of the study, all of the award winning radio commercials produced throughout the history of the Kristal Elma Advertising Festival were analyzed using the content analysis technique. Two judges (an advertising agency copywriter and an academic) coded the commercials. The reliability was measured according to the proportional agreement. The results showed that sound effects, jingles, testimonials, slices of life and announcements were the most common execution formats in creative Turkish radio ads. Humor and excitement were the most commonly used creative appeals while award-winning ads featured various approaches, such as surprise musical performances, audio wallpaper, product voice, and theater of the mind. Some ads, however, were found to not contain any creativity factors. In order to be accepted as creative, an ad must have at least one divergence factor, such as originality, flexibility, unusual/empathic perspective, and provocative questions. These findings, as well as others from the study, hold great value for the history of creative radio advertising in Turkey. Today, the nature of radio and its listeners is changing. As more and more people are tuning into online radio channels, brands will need to focus more on this relatively cheap advertising medium in the very near future. This new development will require that advertising agencies focus their attention on creativity in order to produce radio commercials for their customers that will differentiate them from their competitors.

Keywords: advertising, creativity, radio, Turkey

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Authors: Edwaldo R. B. Monteiro, Patricia D. M. Plentz, Edson R. De Pieri

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Mobile robotics is gaining an increasingly important role in modern society. Several potentially dangerous or laborious tasks for human are assigned to mobile robots, which are increasingly capable. Many of these tasks need to be performed within a specified period, i.e., meet a deadline. Missing the deadline can result in financial and/or material losses. Mechanisms for predicting the missing of deadlines are fundamental because corrective actions can be taken to avoid or minimize the losses resulting from missing the deadline. In this work we propose a simple but reliable deadline missing prediction mechanism for mobile robots through the use of historical data and we use the Pioneer 3-DX robot for experiments and simulations, one of the most popular robots in academia.

Keywords: deadline missing, historical data, mobile robots, prediction mechanism

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Authors: Thomas Slunecko Karat

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The years since 9/11 2001 have given us a plethora of research papers with the word ‘terrorism’ in the title. Yet only a small subset of these papers has produced new data, which explains why more than 20 years of research since 9/11 have done little to increase our understanding of the mechanisms that lead to terrorism. Specifically, terrorism scholars are divided by political, temporal, geographical and financial demarcation lines which prevent a clear definition of terrorism. As a consequence, the true root causes of terrorism remain unexamined. Instead, the psychopathological conditions of the individual have been emphasized despite ample empirical evidence pointing in a different direction. This paper examines the underlying reasons and motives that prevent open discourse about the root causes of terrorism and proposes that terrorism is linked to the current international system of resource allocation and systematic violations of human rights.

Keywords: terrorism, root causes of terrorism, prevention of terrorism, racism, human rights violations

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Authors: Seyed Fakhroddin Hejazi, Mohammad Saleh Sadeghi, Leili Iranirad

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Silent myocardial infarction is defined as the appearance of pathological Q waves in the electrocardiogram, without objective signs of myocardial infarction and any minimal or atypical symptoms. Although this condition has been known for a long time, but little is known about its phenomenon and the mechanisms of it remain unclear. Its coincidence with stroke is also still controversial. This case report introduces a middle-aged man with silent myocardial infarction presented with homonymous hemianopia, which except stage 1 hypertension, had no other major cardiovascular risk factors including diabetes mellitus, hypercholesterolemia, family history of cardiac diseases and smoking. In conclusion, this case report indicated that existence of only one cardiovascular risk factor would lead to the development of MI or stroke.

Keywords: silent myocardial infarction, homonymous hemianopia, stroke, hypertension

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Authors: Muhammad Zeeshan

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This case study is about a 54 years man named Mr. U, referred to Capital Hospital, Islamabad, with the presenting complaints of Generalized Anxiety Disorder (GAD). Contrary to his complaints, the client reported psychological symptoms such as restlessness, low mood and fear of darkness and fear from closed places from the last 30 days. He also had a fear of death and his existence in the grave. His sleep was also disturbed due to excessive urination due to diabetes. He was also suffering from semantic symptoms such as headache, numbness of feet and pain in the chest and blockage of the nose. A complete history was taken and informal assessment (clinical interview and MSE) and formal testing (BAI) was applied that showed the clear diagnosis of Generalized Anxiety Disorder. CBT, relaxation techniques, prayer chart and behavioural techniques were applied for the treatment purposes.

Keywords: generalized anxiety disorder, presenting complaints, formal and informal assessment, diagnosis

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Authors: Mark Kwaku Mensah Obeng

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In the late 1990s and early 2000s, nationals of sub-Saharan Africa who had initially settled in the Middle East and other parts of south east Asia moved to Guangzhou in response to the 1997/8 Asian financial crisis in numbers never witnessed. They were later joined by many more as the Chinese economy improved and as the economic relationship between China and Africa improved. This paper tells the story of identifiable sets of Ghanaians in Guangzhou, China in the 21st century. It details out their respective characteristics and their activities in China, their migratory trajectories and the motivations for travelling to China. Also analyzed is how they are coping with life in the unknown destination. It finally attempt predicting the future of the Ghanaian community in China in terms of their level of community participation and integration.

Keywords: Africa in China, Ghana, motivation, Guangzhou

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Authors: Malcolm Abbott, Angela Tan-Kantoor

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The purpose of this paper is to look at the varieties of ways in which regulators have undertaken asset valuations in Australia of government business enterprises as part of utility regulation. Regulation of the monopoly elements, through use of a building block approach, led to a need to estimate regulated asset bases. This development has had an influence on the manner in which Australian companies (both government and privately owned ones) have valued assets for the purpose of financial reporting. As the regulators in Australia did not always use a consistent approach it had meant that a variety of ways have been used to value the assets of government owned enterprises, and meant a varied impact on asset valuation more generally.

Keywords: sset valuation, regulation, government business enterprises

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Authors: Attila Simon

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The subject of this research is an element of Mithras' iconography. It is a new element in the series of research begun with the study of the Bull in the Boat motif. The stylized altars represented by the seven adjacent rectangles appear on only a small group of Mithraic reliefs, which may explain why they have received less attention and fewer attempts at decipherment than other motifs. Using Vermaseren's database, CIMRM (Corpus Inscriptionum et Monumentorum Religionis Mithriacae), one collected all the cases containing the motif under investigation, created a database of them grouped by location, then used a comparative method to compare the different forms of the motif and to isolate these cases, and finally evaluated the results. The aim of this research is to interpret the iconographic element in question and attempt to determine its place of origin. The study may provide an interpretation of a Mithraic representation that, to the best of the author's knowledge, has not been explained so far, and the question may generate scientific discourses.

Keywords: roman history, religion, Mithras, iconography

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Authors: M. Naji, A. R. Khalim, M. Naji

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Integral Abutment Bridges (IAB) are defined as simple or multiple span bridges in which the bridge deck is cast monolithically with the abutment walls. This kind of bridges are becoming very popular due to different aspects such as good response under seismic loading, low initial costs, elimination of bearings and less maintenance. However, the main issue related to the analysis of this type of structures is dealing with soil-structure interaction of the abutment walls and the supporting piles. A two-dimensional, non-linear finite element (FE) model of an integral abutment bridge has been developed to study the effect of lateral time history displacement loading on the soil system.

Keywords: integral abutment bridge, soil structure interaction, finite element modeling, soil-pile interaction

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Authors: Luo Xi

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Taking the English translation of Yu Hua's To Live as an example, this paper makes a quantitative description and qualitative analysis of its overseas dissemination and acceptance from the perspective of the actual audience -- readers. It is found that the English translation of To Live has been widely disseminated and accepted overseas. The book has been well received overseas. With the English version of To Live, overseas readers have an in-depth understanding of Chinese history, politics, and culture. At the same time, the work shows the admirable qualities of Chinese people. It also conveys the core human values. And thus, overseas readers have gained a deeper understanding of life and are spiritually inspired. From the perspective of readers, this paper studies the successful overseas dissemination of the English translation of Yu Hua's To Live to provide a reference for the further overseas dissemination of Chinese culture.

Keywords: to live, english translation, overseas dissemination and acceptance, readers’ comments

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Authors: Laleh Taheri, Noraini C. Pa, Rusli Abdullah, Salfarina Abdullah

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Knowledge plays an important role to the success of any organization. Software development organizations are highly knowledge-intensive organizations especially in their Requirement Elicitation Process (REP). There are several problems regarding communicating and using the knowledge in REP such as misunderstanding, being out of scope, conflicting information and changes of requirements. All of these problems occurred in transmitting the requirements knowledge during REP. Several researches have been done in REP in order to solve the problem towards requirements. Knowledge Audit (KA) approaches were proposed in order to solve managing knowledge in human resources, financial, and manufacturing. There is lack of study applying the KA in requirements elicitation process. Therefore, this paper proposes a KA model for REP in supporting to acquire good requirements.

Keywords: knowledge audit, requirement elicitation process, KA model, knowledge in requirement elicitation

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Authors: Nadia Sghaier

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In this paper, we aim to identify the determinants of the life and non-life insurance premiums of different lines for the case of the Tunisian insurance market over a recent period from 1997 to 2019. The empirical analysis is conducted using the linear cointegration techniques in the panel data framework, which allow both long and short-run relationships. The obtained results show evidence of long-run relationship between premiums, losses, and financial variables (stock market indices and interest rate). Furthermore, we find that the short-run effect of explanatory variables differs across lines. This finding has important implications for insurance tarification and regulation.

Keywords: insurance premiums, lines, Tunisian insurance market, cointegration approach in panel data

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Authors: Abul Shamsuddin

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The Islamic stock market indices are constructed by screening out stocks that are incompatible with Islam’s prohibition of interest and certain lines of business. This study examines the effects of Islamic screening on the risk-return characteristics of Islamic vis-a-vis mainstream equity portfolios. We use data on Dow Jones Islamic market indices and FTSE Global Islamic indices over 1993-2013. We observe that Islamic equity indices outperform their mainstream counterparts in both raw and risk-adjusted returns. In addition, Islamic equity indices are more resilient to turbulence in international markets than that of their mainstream counterparts. The findings are robust across a variety of portfolio performance measures.

Keywords: Dow Jones Islamic market index, FTSE global Islamic index, ethical investment, finance

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Authors: Laura Southgate

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The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), as well as much of the scholarship on the organisation, celebrates its ability to uphold the principle of regional autonomy, understood as upholding the norm of non-intervention by external powers in regional affairs. Yet, in practice, this has been repeatedly violated. This dichotomy between rhetoric and practice suggests an interesting avenue for further study. The East Timor crisis (1975-1999) has been selected as a case-study to test the dynamics of ASEAN state resistance to sovereignty violation in two distinct timeframes: Indonesia’s initial invasion of the territory in 1975, and the ensuing humanitarian crisis in 1999 which resulted in a UN-mandated, Australian-led peacekeeping intervention force. These time-periods demonstrate variation on the dependent variable. It is necessary to observe covariation in order to derive observations in support of a causal theory. To establish covariation, my independent variable is therefore a continuous variable characterised by variation in convergence of interest. Change of this variable should change the value of the dependent variable, thus establishing causal direction. This paper investigates the history of ASEAN’s relationship to the norm of non-intervention. It offers an alternative understanding of ASEAN’s history, written in terms of the relationship between a key ASEAN state, which I call a ‘vanguard state’, and selected external powers. This paper will consider when ASEAN resistance to sovereignty violation has succeeded, and when it has failed. It will contend that variation in outcomes associated with vanguard state resistance to sovereignty violation can be best explained by levels of interest convergence between the ASEAN vanguard state and designated external actors. Evidence will be provided to support the hypothesis that in 1999, ASEAN’s failure to resist violations to the sovereignty of Indonesia was a consequence of low interest convergence between Indonesia and the external powers. Conversely, in 1975, ASEAN’s ability to resist violations to the sovereignty of Indonesia was a consequence of high interest convergence between Indonesia and the external powers. As the vanguard state, Indonesia was able to apply pressure on the ASEAN states and obtain unanimous support for Indonesia’s East Timor policy in 1975 and 1999. However, the key factor explaining the variance in outcomes in both time periods resides in the critical role played by external actors. This view represents a serious challenge to much of the existing scholarship that emphasises ASEAN’s ability to defend regional autonomy. As these cases attempt to show, ASEAN autonomy is much more contingent than portrayed in the existing literature.

Keywords: ASEAN, east timor, intervention, sovereignty

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Authors: Mueller Jann, Hoffmann Christian Hugo

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Conventional quantitative risk management in banking is a risk factor of its own, because it rests on assumptions such as independence and availability of data which do not hold when rare events of extreme consequences are involved. There is a growing recognition of the need for alternative risk measures that do not make these assumptions. We propose a novel method for modeling the risk associated with investment products, in particular derivatives, by using a formal language for specifying financial contracts. Expressions in this language are interpreted in the category of values annotated with (a formal representation of) uncertainty. The choice of uncertainty formalism thus becomes a parameter of the model, so it can be adapted to the particular application and it is not constrained to classical probabilities. We demonstrate our approach using a simple logic-based uncertainty model and a case study in which we assess the risk of counter party default in a portfolio of collateralized loans.

Keywords: risk model, uncertainty monad, derivatives, contract algebra

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