Search results for: demand forecast updating

Authors: Martina Maria Keitsch, Sangeeta Singh

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There has been a growing recognition that sustainable development needs to consider economic, social and environmental aspects including gender. In Nepal, the majority of the population lives in rural areas, and many households do not have access to electricity. In rural areas, the difficulty of accessing energy is becoming one of the greatest constraints for improving living conditions. This is particularly true for women and children, who spent much time for collecting firewood and cooking and thus are often deprived of time for education, political- and business activities. The poster introduces an education and research project financed by the Norwegian Government. The project runs from 2015-2020 and is a collaboration between the Norwegian University of Science (NTNU) and Technology Institute of Engineering (IOE), Tribhuvan University. It has the title Master program and Research in Energy for Sustainable Social Development Energy for Sustainable Social Development (MSESSD). The project addresses engineering and architecture students and comprises several integral activities towards gender mainstreaming. The following activities are conducted; 1. Creating academic opportunities, 2. Updating administrative personnel on strategies to effectively include gender issues, 3. Integrating female and male stakeholders in the design process, 4. Sensitizing female and male students for gender issues in energy systems. The project aims to enable students to design end-user-friendly solutions which can, for example, save time that can be used to generate and enhance income. Relating to gender mainstreaming, design concepts focus on smaller-scale technologies, which female stakeholders can take control of and manage themselves. Creating academic opportunities, we have a 30% female students’ rate in each master student batch in the program with the goal to educate qualified female personnel for academia and policy-making/government. This is a very ambitious target in a Nepalese context. The rate of female students, who completed the MSc program at IOE between 1998 and January 2015 is 10% out of 180 students in total. For recruiting, female students were contacted personally and encouraged to apply for the program. Further, we have established a Master course in gender mainstreaming and energy. On an administrative level, NTNU has hosted a training program for IOE on gender-mainstreaming information and -strategies for academic education. Integrating female and male stakeholders, local women groups such as, e.g., mothers group are actively included in research and education for example in planning, decision-making, and management to establish clean energy solutions. The project meets women’s needs not just practically by providing better technology, but also strategically by providing solutions that enhance their social and economic decision-making authority. Sensitizing the students for gender issues in energy systems, the project makes it mandatory to discuss gender mainstreaming based on the case studies in the Master thesis. All activities will be discussed in detail comprising an overview of MSESSD, the gender mainstreaming master course contents’, and case studies where energy solutions were co-designed with men and women as lead-users and/or entrepreneurs. The goal is to motivate educators to develop similar forms of transnational gender collaboration.

Keywords: knowledge generation on gender mainstreaming, sensitizing students, stakeholder inclusion, education strategies for design and architecture in gender mainstreaming, facilitation for cooperation

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Authors: Lydia Wahid, Mona F. Ahmed, Nevin Darwish

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The vehicle routing problem (VRP) consists of a group of customers that needs to be served. Each customer has a certain demand of goods. A central depot having a fleet of vehicles is responsible for supplying the customers with their demands. The problem is composed of two subproblems: The first subproblem is an assignment problem where the number of vehicles that will be used as well as the customers assigned to each vehicle are determined. The second subproblem is the routing problem in which for each vehicle having a number of customers assigned to it, the order of visits of the customers is determined. Optimal number of vehicles, as well as optimal total distance, should be achieved. In this paper, an approach for solving the first subproblem (the assignment problem) is presented. In the approach, a clustering algorithm is proposed for finding the optimal number of vehicles by grouping the customers into clusters where each cluster is visited by one vehicle. Finding the optimal number of clusters is NP-hard. This work presents a polynomial time clustering algorithm for finding the optimal number of clusters and solving the assignment problem.

Keywords: vehicle routing problems, clustering algorithms, Clarke and Wright Saving Method, agglomerative hierarchical clustering

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Authors: Claire Limoge Schraen, Philippe Gueguen, Cedric Giry, Cedric Desprez, Frédéric Ragueneau

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Mediterranean area is characterized by numerous monumental or vernacular masonry structures illustrating old ways of build and live. Those precious buildings are often poorly documented, present complex shapes and loadings, and are protected by the States, leading to legal constraints. This area also presents a moderate to high seismic activity. Even moderate earthquakes can be magnified by local site effects and cause collapse or significant damage. Moreover the structural resistance of masonry buildings, especially when less famous or located in rural zones has been generally lowered by many factors: poor maintenance, unsuitable restoration, ambient pollution, previous earthquakes. Recent earthquakes prove that any damage to these architectural witnesses to our past is irreversible, leading to the necessity of acting preventively. This means providing preventive assessments for hundreds of structures with no or few documents. In this context we want to propose a general method, based on hierarchized numerical models, to provide preliminary structural diagnoses at a regional scale, indicating whether more precise investigations and models are necessary for each building. To this aim, we adapt different tools, being developed such as photogrammetry or to be created such as a preprocessor starting from pictures to build meshes for a FEM software, in order to allow dynamic studies of the buildings of the panel. We made an inventory of 198 baroque chapels and churches situated in the French Alps. Then their structural characteristics have been determined thanks field surveys and the MicMac photogrammetric software. Using structural criteria, we determined eight types of churches and seven types for chapels. We studied their dynamical behavior thanks to CAST3M, using EC8 spectrum and accelerogramms of the studied zone. This allowed us quantifying the effect of the needed simplifications in the most sensitive zones and choosing the most effective ones. We also proposed threshold criteria based on the observed damages visible in the in situ surveys, old pictures and Italian code. They are relevant in linear models. To validate the structural types, we made a vibratory measures campaign using vibratory ambient noise and velocimeters. It also allowed us validating this method on old masonry and identifying the modal characteristics of 20 churches. Then we proceeded to a dynamic identification between numerical and experimental modes. So we updated the linear models thanks to material and geometrical parameters, often unknown because of the complexity of the structures and materials. The numerically optimized values have been verified thanks to the measures we made on the masonry components in situ and in laboratory. We are now working on non-linear models redistributing the strains. So we validate the damage threshold criteria which we use to compute the vulnerability curves of each defined structural type. Our actual results show a good correlation between experimental and numerical data, validating the final modeling simplifications and the global method. We now plan to use non-linear analysis in the critical zones in order to test reinforcement solutions.

Keywords: heritage structures, masonry numerical modeling, seismic vulnerability assessment, vibratory measure

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Authors: Abbas Al-Refaie, Nour Bata

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A distributor of Apple products' experiences numerous difficulties in developing marketing strategies for new and existing mobile product entries that maximize customer satisfaction and the firm's profitability. This research, therefore, integrates market segmentation in platform-based product family design and conjoint analysis to identify iSystem combinations that increase customer satisfaction and business profits. First, the enhanced market segmentation grid is created. Then, the estimated demand model is formulated. Finally, the profit models are constructed then used to determine the ideal product family design that maximizes profit. Conjoint analysis is used to explore customer preferences with their satisfaction levels. A total of 200 surveys are collected about customer preferences. Then, simulation is used to determine the importance values for each attribute. Finally, sensitivity analysis is conducted to determine the product family design that maximizes both objectives. In conclusion, the results of this research shall provide great support to Apple distributors in determining the best marketing strategies that enhance their market share.

Keywords: market segmentation, conjoint analysis, market strategies, optimization

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Authors: Cuong D. Dao, Rob J.I. Basten, Andreas Hartmann

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This paper studies the optimal maintenance planning of preventive maintenance and renewal activities for components in a single railway track when the available time for maintenance is limited. The rail-track system consists of several types of components, such as rail, ballast, and switches with different preventive maintenance and renewal intervals. To perform maintenance or renewal on the track, a train free period for maintenance, called a possession, is required. Since a major possession directly affects the regular train schedule, maintenance and renewal activities are clustered as much as possible. In a highly dense and utilized railway network, the possession time on the track is critical since the demand for train operations is very high and a long possession has a severe impact on the regular train schedule. We present an optimization model and investigate the maintenance schedules with and without the possession capacity constraint. In addition, we also integrate the social-economic cost related to the effects of the maintenance time to the variable possession cost into the optimization model. A numerical example is provided to illustrate the model.

Keywords: rail-track components, maintenance, optimal clustering, possession capacity

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Authors: Vishnu Nair, Rohan Kapoor

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Recent commercial aircraft crashes demand a paradigm shift in how the CVDRs are located and recovered, particularly if the aircraft crashes in the sea. CVDR (Cockpit Voice and Data Recorder) is most vital component out of the entire wreckage that can be obtained in order to investigate the sequence of events leading to the crash. It has been a taxing and exorbitantly expensive process locating and retrieving the same in the massive water bodies as it was seen in the air crashes in the recent past, taking the unfortunate Malaysia airlines MH-370 crash into account. The study aims to provide an aid to the persisting problem by improving the buoyant as-well-as the aerodynamic properties of the proposed CVDR encasing. Alongside this the placement of the deployable CVDR on the surface of the aircraft and floatability in case of water submersion are key factors which are taken into consideration for a better resolution to the problem. All of which results into the Deployable-CVDR emerging to the surface of the water-body. Also the whole system is designed such that it can be seamlessly integrated with the current crop of commercial aircraft. The work is supported by carrying out a computational study with the help Ansys-Fluent combination.

Keywords: encasing, buoyancy, deployable CVDR, floatability, water submersion

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Authors: Gabriela Chmelikova, Ludmila Hurajova, Pavol Bozek

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Current era has brought hand in hand with the vast and fast development of technologies enormous pressure on individuals to keep being well - oriented in their professional fields. Almost all projects in the real world require an interdisciplinary perspective. These days we notice some cases when students face that real requirements for jobs are in contrast to the knowledge and competences they gained at universities. Interlacing labor market and university programs is a big issue these days. Sometimes it seems that higher education only “chases” reality. Simulation-based learning can support students’ touch with real demand on competences and knowledge of job world. The contribution provided a descriptive study of some cases of simulation-based teaching environment in different courses at STU MTF in Trnava and discussed how students and teachers perceive this model of teaching-learning approach. Finally, some recommendations are proposed how to enhance closer relationship between academic world and labor market.

Keywords: interdisciplinary approach, simulation-based learning, students' job readiness, teaching environment in higher education

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Authors: Winita Kitisak, Boontarika Panyomoon, Siriyakorn Nilpoun, Nithit Yosit, Peeraya Somsak

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The purpose of this study will affect the marketing mix that influences the consumers’ behavior towards beverage purchasing from retail stores. It aims to study the consumers and to better understand their behaviors and factors influencing their decision making on buying beverage in retail stores. We study the example of 400 consumers in Chiang Mai. The study shows that most of the respondents were male, 50 percent is 20-30 year old, and 36.66 percent is 31-40 year old, only 2.66 percent is upper 50 years old, bachelor’s degree holders, working in business field and student with 10,001-15,000 Baht income. Most buyers spend 4-6 times a week buying cheap beverage from retail stores. The consumer bought alcoholic beverages, green tea drinks, and soft drinks, but the mainly purchased product was beer. The results indicate that the brand of the product motivates more on consumers’ demand. While shelf displays, products presentation, and sales promotion affect the most on the consumers’ decision to purchase from the retail stores, the promotions moderately impact the consumers’ decision on purchasing from retail stores.

Keywords: consumer behavior, beverage, retail stores, convenience store

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Authors: András Horkai, Attila Talamon, Viktória Sugár

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There is an urgent need nowadays to reduce energy demand and the current level of greenhouse gas emission and use renewable energy sources increase in energy efficiency. On the other hand, the European Union (EU) countries are largely dependent on energy imports and are vulnerable to disruption in energy supply, which may, in turn, threaten the functioning of their current economic structure. Residential buildings represent a significant part of the energy consumption of the building stock. Only a small part of the building stock is exchanged every year, thus it is essential to increase the energy efficiency of the existing buildings. Present paper focuses on the buildings built with industrialized technology only, and their opportunities in the boundaries of nearly zero-energy regulation. Current paper shows the emergence of panel construction method, and past and present of the ‘panel’ problem in Hungary with a short outlook to Europe. The study shows as well as the possibilities for meeting the nearly zero and cost optimized requirements for residential buildings by analyzing the renovation scenarios of an existing residential typology.

Keywords: Budapest, energy consumption, industrialized technology, nearly zero-energy buildings

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Authors: Atefeh Pourshafie, Homayoun Bakhtiari

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In power transmission lines, electricity conductors are main tools to carry electric power. Thus, other devices such as shield wires, insulators, towers, foundations etc. should be designed in a way that the conductors be able to successfully do their task which is appropriate power delivery to the customers. Non-stop increase of energy demand has led to saturated capacity of transmission lines which, in turn, causing line flash to exceed acceptable limits in some points. An approach which may be used to solve this issue is replacement of current conductors with new ones having the capability of withstanding higher heating such that reduced flash would be observed when heating increases. These novel conductors are able to transfer higher currents and operate in higher heating conditions while line flash will remain within standard limits. In this paper, we will attempt to introduce three types of advanced overhead conductors and analyze the replacement of current conductors by new ones technically and economically in transmission lines. In this regard, progressive conductors of transmission lines are introduced such as ACC (Aluminum Conductor Composite Core), AAAC-UHC (Ultra High Conductivity, All Aluminum Alloy Conductors), and G(Z)TACSR-Gap Type.

Keywords: ACC, AAAC-UHC, gap type, transmission lines

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Authors: Anvesh Rajak

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This is a new innovation that can be developed. Here I am going to use the waste heat of air conditioner so as to produce the electricity by using the Stirling engine because this waste heat creates the thermal pollution in the environment. The waste heat from the air conditioners has caused a temperature rise of 1°–2°C or more on weekdays in the Tokyo office areas. This heating promotes the heat-island phenomenon in Tokyo on weekdays. Now these air conditioners creates the thermal pollution in the environment and hence rising the temperature of the environment. Air conditioner generally emit the waste heat air whose temperature is about 50°C which heat the environment. Today the demand of energy is increasing tremendously, but available energy lacks in supply. Hence, there is no option for proper and efficient utilization and conservation of energy. In this paper the main stress is given on energy conservation by using technique of utilizing waste heat from Air-conditioning system. Actually the focus is on the use of the waste heat rather than improving the COP of the air- conditioners; if also we improve the COP of air conditioners gradually it would emit some waste heat so I want that waste heat to be used up. As I have used air conditioner’s waste heat to produce electricity so similarly there are various other appliances which emit the waste heat in the surrounding so here also we could use the Stirling engines and Geothermal heat pump concept to produce the electricity and hence can reduce the thermal pollution in the environment.

Keywords: stirling engine, geothermal heat pumps, waste heat, air conditioners

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Authors: Abul Quasem Al-Amin, Md. Hasanuzzaman, Mohammad Nurul Azam, Walter Leal Filho

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With regard to the future energy strategy and vision, this study aimed to find the drawbacks of proposed energy diversification policy for 2020. To have a clear picture of the drawback and competitive alternative, this study has explored two scenarios, namely Scenario a and Scenario b. The Scenario a indicates that in the year 2020 the GHG emissions would be 823,498.00 million tons (Mt) with a 2020 final demand and proposed fuel mix such as by the Five-Fuel Diversification Strategy. In contrast, as an alternative, the Scenario b with biofuel potentials indicates that the substitution of coal energy by 5%, 10%, and 15%, respectively, with biofuel, would reduce the GHG emissions from 374,551.00, 405,118.00, and 823,498.00 million tons to 339,964.00, 329,834.00, and 305,288.00 million tons, respectively, by the present fuel mix, business-as-usual fuel mix, and proposed fuel mix up to the year 2020. Therefore, this study has explored a healthy alternative by introducing biofuel renewable energy option instead of conventional energy utilization in the power generation with environmental aspect in minds. This study effort would lessen the gap between GHG mitigation and future sustainable development and would useful to formulate effective renewable energy strategy in Malaysia.

Keywords: energy, environmental impacts, renewable energy, biofuel, energy policy

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Authors: Ibrahim Gomaa, Hoda M. O. Mokhtar

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Although most of the existing skyline queries algorithms focused basically on querying static points through static databases; with the expanding number of sensors, wireless communications and mobile applications, the demand for continuous skyline queries has increased. Unlike traditional skyline queries which only consider static attributes, continuous skyline queries include dynamic attributes, as well as the static ones. However, as skyline queries computation is based on checking the domination of skyline points over all dimensions, considering both the static and dynamic attributes without separation is required. In this paper, we present an efficient algorithm for computing continuous skyline queries without discriminating between static and dynamic attributes. Our algorithm in brief proceeds as follows: First, it excludes the points which will not be in the initial skyline result; this pruning phase reduces the required number of comparisons. Second, the association between the spatial positions of data points is examined; this phase gives an idea of where changes in the result might occur and consequently enables us to efficiently update the skyline result (continuous update) rather than computing the skyline from scratch. Finally, experimental evaluation is provided which demonstrates the accuracy, performance and efficiency of our algorithm over other existing approaches.

Keywords: continuous query processing, dynamic database, moving object, skyline queries

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Authors: Sanjay Kumar, Lillie Dewan

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The study of complex dynamic systems has advanced through various scientific approaches with the help of computer modeling. The common design trends in aerospace system design can be applied to quadcopter design. A quadcopter is a nonlinear, under-actuated system with complex aerodynamics parameters and creates challenges that demand new, robust, and effective control approaches. The flight control stability can be improved by planning and tracking the trajectory and reducing the effect of sensors and the operational environment. This paper presents a modern design Simmechanics visual modeling approach for a mechanical model of a quadcopter with three degrees of freedom. The Simmechanics model, considering inertia, mass, and geometric properties of a dynamic system, produces multiple translation and rotation maneuvers. The proportional, integral, and derivative (PID) controller is integrated with the Simmechanics model to follow a predefined quadcopter rotational trajectory for a fixed time interval. The results presented are satisfying. The simulation of the quadcopter control performed operations successfully.

Keywords: nonlinear system, quadcopter model, simscape modelling, proportional-integral-derivative controller

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Authors: Aggrey Daniel Maina Thuo

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Rapid urban population growth means an increasing demand for urban land, particularly for housing, and also for various other urban uses. This land is not available within cities but in peri-urban areas. The expansion of the cities into the peri-urban areas is creating direct and indirect impacts with those living there facing new challenges and opportunities in meeting their life needs and accommodating the by-products of urbanization. Although urbanization of these areas provides opportunities for employment, better housing, education, knowledge and technology transfer, and ready markets for the agricultural products, increase in population places enormous stress on natural resources and existing social services and infrastructure, therefore causing environmental degradation. This environmental degradation is affecting agriculture for those still holding onto their farms for agricultural purposes. This paper, using a multiple theoretical framework and qualitative research approach, attempts to describe the positive and adverse effects of urbanization on peri-urban agriculture, using the Town Council of Karuri within Nairobi peri-urban areas as a case study.

Keywords: peri-urban agriculture, urbanization, land use, environmental degradation, planning

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Authors: Ntite Orji Kalu, Martina Kurowski

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Until recently, the Czech Republic had an educational system dominated by indigenous people, who accounted for 95% of the school population. With the increasing influx of migrants and foreign students, especially from outside European Union, came a great disparity among the quality of learners and their learning needs and consideration for the challenges associated with being a minority and living within a foreign culture. This has prompted the research into ways of tailoring the educational system to meet the rising demand of learning styles and needs for the diverse learners in the Czech classrooms. Literature is reviewed regarding the various ways to accommodate the international students considering racial differences, focusing on theoretical approach and pedagogical principles. This study examines the compulsory educational system of the Czech Republic and the position and responsibility of the teacher in fostering a culturally sensitive and inclusive learning environment. Descriptive and content analysis is relied upon for this study. Recommendations are made for stakeholders to imbibe a more responsive environment that enhances the cultural and social integration of all learners.

Keywords: culturally responsive teaching, cultural competence, diversity, learners, inclusive education, Czech schools

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Authors: Rishabh Agrawal, S. C. Kaushik, T. S. Bhatti

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In order to reduce energy consumption for sustainable development, continuous energy consumption tracking of building energy systems are essential. In this paper an assessment study has been done to identify the energy consumption & energy conservation potential for commercial buildings sector in Karnataka state, India. There are a total of 326 commercial buildings in the state of Karnataka who has qualified as designated consumers (i.e., having a Contract Demand ≥ 600 KVA), was consider for the study. It has estimated that the annual electricity sale to commercial sector is 3.62 Billion Units (BU) in alone Karnataka State, India, which is an account for 9.57 % of the total electricity sold. The commercial sector constitutes Government & private establishments, hospitals, hotels, restaurants, educational institutions, malls etc. Total 326 commercial buildings in the state accounting for annual energy consumption of 1295.72 Million Units (MU) which works out to about 35% of the sectoral consumption. The annual energy savings potential for 326 commercial buildings is assessed to be 0.25 BU.

Keywords: commercial buildings, connected load, energy conservation studies, energy savings, energy efficiency, energy conservation strategy, energy efficiency, thermal energy, HVAC system

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Authors: Gabriele Borg, Alexei Debono, Charlie Abela

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There on a constant rise in the availability of high volumes of data gathered from multiple sources, resulting in an abundance of unprocessed information that can be used to monitor patterns and trends in user behaviour. Similarly, year after year, Malta is also constantly experiencing ongoing population growth and an increase in mobilization demand. This research takes advantage of data which is continuously being sourced and converting it into useful information related to the traffic problem on the Maltese roads. The scope of this paper is to provide a methodology to create a custom dataset (MalTra - Malta Traffic) compiled from multiple participants from various locations across the island to identify the most common routes taken to expose the main areas of activity. This use of big data is seen being used in various technologies and is referred to as ITSs (Intelligent Transportation Systems), which has been concluded that there is significant potential in utilising such sources of data on a nationwide scale. Furthermore, a series of traffic prediction graph neural network models are conducted to compare MalTra to large-scale traffic datasets.

Keywords: graph neural networks, traffic management, big data, mobile data patterns

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Authors: E. Benga, T. Tengen, A. Alugongo

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Periodic and continuous inventory models are the two classical management tools used to handle inventories. These models have advantages and disadvantages. The implementation of both continuous (r,Q) inventory and periodic (R, S) inventory models in most manufacturing plants comes with higher cost. Such high inventory costs are due to the fact that most manufacturing plants are not flexible enough. Since demand and lead-time are two important variables of every inventory models, their effect on the flexibility of the manufacturing plant matter most. Unfortunately, these effects are not clearly understood by managers. The reason is that the decision parameters of the continuous (r, Q) inventory and periodic (R, S) inventory models are not designed to effectively deal with the issues of uncertainties such as poor manufacturing performances, delivery performance supplies performances. There is, therefore, a need to come up with a predictive and hybrid inventory model that can combine in some sense the feature of the aforementioned inventory models. A linear combination technique is used to hybridize both continuous (r, Q) inventory and periodic (R, S) inventory models. The behavior of such hybrid inventory model is described by a differential equation and then optimized. From the results obtained after simulation, the continuous (r, Q) inventory model is more effective than the periodic (R, S) inventory models in the short run, but this difference changes as time goes by. Because the hybrid inventory model is more cost effective than the continuous (r,Q) inventory and periodic (R, S) inventory models in long run, it should be implemented for strategic decisions.

Keywords: periodic inventory, continuous inventory, hybrid inventory, optimization, manufacturing plant

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Authors: Ryan B. Simpson, Margaret A. Waskow, Aishwarya Venkat, Elena N. Naumova

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The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimate that 31 known foodborne pathogens cause 9.4 million cases of these illnesses annually in US. Over 90% of these illnesses are associated with exposure to Campylobacter, Cryptosporidium, Cyclospora, Listeria, Salmonella, Shigella, Shiga-Toxin Producing E.Coli (STEC), Vibrio, and Yersinia. Contaminated products contain parasites typically causing an intestinal illness manifested by diarrhea, stomach cramping, nausea, weight loss, fatigue and may result in deaths in fragile populations. Since 1998, the National Outbreak Reporting System (NORS) has allowed for routine collection of suspected and laboratory-confirmed cases of food poisoning. While retrospective analyses have revealed common pathogen-specific seasonal patterns, little is known concerning the stability of those patterns over time and whether they can be used for preventative forecasting. The objective of this study is to construct a calendar of foodborne outbreaks of nine infections based on the peak timing of outbreak incidence in the US from 1996 to 2017. Reported cases were abstracted from FoodNet for Salmonella (135115), Campylobacter (121099), Shigella (48520), Cryptosporidium (21701), STEC (18022), Yersinia (3602), Vibrio (3000), Listeria (2543), and Cyclospora (758). Monthly counts were compiled for each agent, seasonal peak timing and peak intensity were estimated, and the stability of seasonal peaks and synchronization of infections was examined. Negative Binomial harmonic regression models with the delta-method were applied to derive confidence intervals for the peak timing for each year and overall study period estimates. Preliminary results indicate that five infections continue to lead as major causes of outbreaks, exhibiting steady upward trends with annual increases in cases ranging from 2.71% (95%CI: [2.38, 3.05]) in Campylobacter, 4.78% (95%CI: [4.14, 5.41]) in Salmonella, 7.09% (95%CI: [6.38, 7.82]) in E.Coli, 7.71% (95%CI: [6.94, 8.49]) in Cryptosporidium, and 8.67% (95%CI: [7.55, 9.80]) in Vibrio. Strong synchronization of summer outbreaks were observed, caused by Campylobacter, Vibrio, E.Coli and Salmonella, peaking at 7.57 ± 0.33, 7.84 ± 0.47, 7.85 ± 0.37, and 7.82 ± 0.14 calendar months, respectively, with the serial cross-correlation ranging 0.81-0.88 (p < 0.001). Over 21 years, Listeria and Cryptosporidium peaks (8.43 ± 0.77 and 8.52 ± 0.45 months, respectively) have a tendency to arrive 1-2 weeks earlier, while Vibrio peaks (7.8 ± 0.47) delay by 2-3 weeks. These findings will be incorporated in the forecast models to predict common paths of the spread, long-term trends, and the synchronization of outbreaks across etiological agents. The predictive modeling of foodborne outbreaks should consider long-term changes in seasonal timing, spatiotemporal trends, and sources of contamination.

Keywords: foodborne outbreak, national outbreak reporting system, predictive modeling, seasonality

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Authors: Dominik Krimpmann

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Cloud computing has provided the impetus for change in the demand, sourcing, and consumption of IT-enabled services. The technology developed from an emerging trend towards a ‘must-have’. Many organizations harnessed on the quick-wins of cloud computing within the last five years but nowadays reach a plateau when it comes to sustainable savings and performance. This study aims to investigate what is needed from an organizational perspective to make cloud computing a sustainable success. The study was carried out in Germany among senior IT professionals, both in management and delivery positions. Our research shows that IT executives must be prepared to realign their IT workforce to sustain the advantage of cloud computing for today and the near future. While new roles will undoubtedly emerge, roles alone cannot ensure the success of cloud deployments. What is needed is a change in the IT workforce’s business behaviour, or put more simply, the ways in which the IT personnel works. It gives clear guidance on which dimensions of an employees’ working behaviour need to be adapted. The practical implications are drawn from a series of semi-structured interviews, resulting in a high-level workforce enablement plan. Lastly, it elaborates on tools and gives clear guidance on which pitfalls might arise along the proposed workforce enablement process.

Keywords: cloud computing, organization design, organizational change, workforce enablement

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Authors: Vadim Allheily, Rudiger Schmitt, Lionel Merlat, Gildas L'Hostis

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Inflight devices are nowadays major actors in both military and civilian landscapes. Among others, missiles, mortars, rockets or even drones this last decade are increasingly sophisticated, and it is today of prior manner to develop always more efficient defensive systems from all these potential threats. In this frame, recent High Energy Laser weapon prototypes (HEL) have demonstrated some extremely good operational abilities to shot down within seconds flying targets several kilometers off. Whereas test outcomes are promising from both experimental and cost-related perspectives, the deterioration process still needs to be explored to be able to closely predict the effects of a high-energy laser irradiation on typical structures, heading finally to an effective design of laser sources and protective countermeasures. Laser matter interaction researches have a long history of more than 40 years at the French-German Research Institute (ISL). Those studies were tied with laser sources development in the mid-60s, mainly for specific metrology of fast phenomena. Nowadays, laser matter interaction can be viewed as the terminal ballistics of conventional weapons, with the unique capability of laser beams to carry energy at light velocity over large ranges. In the last years, a strong focus was made at ISL on the interaction process of laser radiation with metal targets such as artillery shells. Due to the absorbed laser radiation and the resulting heating process, an encased explosive charge can be initiated resulting in deflagration or even detonation of the projectile in flight. Drones and Unmanned Air Vehicles (UAVs) are of outmost interests in modern warfare. Those aerial systems are usually made up of polymer-based composite materials, whose complexity involves new scientific challenges. Aside this main laser-matter interaction activity, a lot of experimental and numerical knowledge has been gathered at ISL within domains like spectrometry, thermodynamics or mechanics. Techniques and devices were developed to study separately each aspect concerned by this topic; optical characterization, thermal investigations, chemical reactions analysis or mechanical examinations are beyond carried out to neatly estimate essential key values. Results from these diverse tasks are then incorporated into analytic or FE numerical models that were elaborated, for example, to predict thermal repercussion on explosive charges or mechanical failures of structures. These simulations highlight the influence of each phenomenon during the laser irradiation and forecast experimental observations with good accuracy.

Keywords: composite materials, countermeasure, experimental work, high-energy laser, laser-matter interaction, modeling

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Authors: Muhammad Zaheer Babar, Amer Kashif, Muhammad Rizwan Javed

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Nowadays distributed generation integration is best way to overcome the increasing load demand. Optimal allocation of distributed generation plays a vital role in reducing system losses and improves voltage profile. In this paper, a Meta heuristic technique is proposed for allocation of DG in order to reduce power losses and improve voltage profile. The proposed technique is based on Multi Objective Particle Swarm optimization. Fewer control parameters are needed in this algorithm. Modification is made in search space of PSO. The effectiveness of proposed technique is tested on IEEE 33 bus test system. Single DG as well as multiple DG scenario is adopted for proposed method. Proposed method is more effective as compared to other Meta heuristic techniques and gives better results regarding system losses and voltage profile.

Keywords: Distributed generation (DG), Multi Objective Particle Swarm Optimization (MOPSO), particle swarm optimization (PSO), IEEE standard Test System

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Authors: Abdessalem Abbassi, Ahlem Dakhlaoui, Lota D. Tamini

Abstract:

This article analyses management of hydropower dams within two different industrial structures: monopolistic and oligopolistic; when hydroelectricity producers are risk averse and face demand uncertainty. In each type of market structure we determine the water release path in closed-loop equilibrium. We show how a monopoly can manage its hydropower dams by additional pumping or storage depending on the relative abundance of water between different regions to smooth the effect of uncertainty on electricity prices. In the oligopolistic case with symmetric rates of risk aversion, we determine the conditions under which the relative scarcity (abundance) of water in the dam of a hydroelectric operator can favor additional strategic pumping (storage) in its competitor’s dams. When there is asymmetry of the risk aversion coefficient, the firm’s hydroelectricity production increases as its competitor’s risk aversion increases, if and only if the average recharge speed of the competitor’s dam exceeds a certain threshold, which is an increasing function of its average water inflows.

Keywords: asymmetric risk aversion, closed-loop Cournot competition, electricity wholesale market, hydropower dams

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Authors: Jennifer Chen, Pei Y. Hsu, Yu W. Chen

Abstract:

Groundwater resources play a vital role in regional water supply because over 1/3 of total demand is satisfied by groundwater resources. Because over-pumpage might cause environmental impact such as land subsidence, a sustainable management of groundwater resource is required. In this study, a blueprint of smart management for groundwater resource is proposed and planned. The framework of the smart management can be divided into two major parts, hardware and software parts. First, an internet of groundwater (IoG) which is inspired by the internet of thing (IoT) is proposed to observe the migration of groundwater usage and the associated response, groundwater levels. Second, algorithms based on data mining and signal analysis are proposed to achieve the goal of providing highly efficient management of groundwater. The entire blueprint is a 4-year plan and this year is the first year. We have finished the installation of 50 flow meters and 17 observation wells. An underground hydrological model is proposed to determine the associated drawdown caused by the measured pumpages. Besides, an alternative to the flow meter is also proposed to decrease the installation cost of IoG. An accelerometer and 3G remote transmission are proposed to detect the on and off of groundwater pumpage.

Keywords: groundwater management, internet of groundwater, underground hydrological model, alternative of flow meter

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Authors: Jonas Palmer, Leon Brüning, Lukas Himmelsbach

Abstract:

The worldwide ambitions to transform the transportation sector are increasingly affecting the safety conditions for all traffic participants and the required infrastructure. To contribute to the transformation and for health aspects, individuals search for carbon-free alternatives that include physical excitation. Especially e-bikes experience a growing demand within the last few years and consequently change the safety requirements. E-cyclists are exposed to amplified risks due to higher velocity in comparison to classic cyclists. Furthermore, cyclists suffer from a lack of infrastructure, rider assistance systems as well as awareness of other road users. For minimizing the risk of accidents, it is crucial to identify, develop and implement safety measures for cyclists. The paper aims to contribute to future research with delivering an overview of the latest publications and to subsequently identify essential research gaps. Therefore, it is essential to analyze the areas of technical adjustments as well as legal aspects and the correlation of both. The review`s insights can intensify the awareness of safety issues related to e-bikes and promote the development and implementation of appropriate measures.

Keywords: e-bike safety measures, future mobility, risk management, road safety

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Authors: Muhammad Rehan Usman, Muhammad Arslan Usman, Soo Young Shin

Abstract:

The new era of digital communication has brought up many challenges that network operators need to overcome. The high demand of mobile data rates require improved networks, which is a challenge for the operators in terms of maintaining the quality of experience (QoE) for their consumers. In live video transmission, there is a sheer need for live surveillance of the videos in order to maintain the quality of the network. For this purpose objective algorithms are employed to monitor the quality of the videos that are transmitted over a network. In order to test these objective algorithms, subjective quality assessment of the streamed videos is required, as the human eye is the best source of perceptual assessment. In this paper we have conducted subjective evaluation of videos with varying spatial and temporal impairments. These videos were impaired with frame freezing distortions so that the impact of frame freezing on the quality of experience could be studied. We present subjective Mean Opinion Score (MOS) for these videos that can be used for fine tuning the objective algorithms for video quality assessment.

Keywords: frame freezing, mean opinion score, objective assessment, subjective evaluation

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Authors: Hesham Moustafa, Ahmed M. Youssef

Abstract:

The demand for green packagingin the food field has been gained increasing attention in recent decades because of its degradability and safely. Thus, this study revealed that the by-product bagasse papers (BPs) derived from sugarcane waste can be decorated with a thin layer of polystyrene (PS) nanocomposites using the spreading approach.Three variable concentrations of TiO2 nanoparticles (i.e. 0.5, 1.0, 1.5 wt.%) were used to fabricate PS nanocomposites. The morphology of coated BP-PS biofilms was examined by X-ray diffraction, Fourier transferred Infrared spectroscopy (FT-IR), and scanning electron microscopy (SEM). Moreover, other measurements such as mechanical, thermal stability, flammability, wettability by the contact angle, water vapor, and gas barrier properties were carried out on the fabricated BP-PS biofilms. Most outcomes showed that the major properties were enhanced when the PS nanocomposites were implemented. The use of 1.5 wt.% TiO2 in PS nanocomposite for coated BP-PS biofilm increased the tensile stress by ~ 217 % compared to uncoated BP film. Furthermore, the rate of burning for BP-PS-1.5% film was reduced to ~ 33 mm/min because of the crystallinity of PS and the barrier effect provided by TiO₂ NPs. These coated sheets provide a promising candidate for use in advanced packaging applications.

Keywords: bagasse paper, polystyrene nanocomposites, TiO2 nanoparticles, active packaging, mechanical properties, flammability

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Authors: Sanoj Sahu, Ramakar Jha

Abstract:

Odisha (India) is in need of reliable, cost-effective power generation. A prolonged electricity crisis and increasing power demand have left over thousands of citizens without access to electricity, and much of the population suffers from sporadic outages. The purpose of this project is to build a methodology to evaluate small hydropower potential, which can be used to alleviate the Odisha’s energy problem among rural communities. This project has three major tasks: the design of a simple SHEP for a single location along a river in the Odisha; the development of water flow prediction equations through a linear regression analysis; and the design of an ArcGIS toolset to estimate the flow duration curves (FDCs) at locations where data do not exist. An explanation of the inputs to the tool, as well has how it produces a suitable output for SHEP evaluation will be presented. The paper also gives an explanation of hydroelectric power generation in the Odisha, SHEPs, and the technical and practical aspects of hydroelectric power. Till now, based on topographical and rainfall analysis we have located hundreds of sites. Further work on more number of site location and accuracy of location is to be done.

Keywords: small hydropower, ArcGIS, rainfall analysis, Odisha’s energy problem

Procedia PDF Downloads 448

Authors: Naci Büyükkaracığan, Murat Ahmet Ökmen

Abstract:

Emerging demand for energy in developing countries rapid population growth and industrialization are causing a rapid increase, such as Turkey. Energy is an important and indispensable factor in the industry. At the same time, energy is one of the main indicators that reflect a country's economic and social development potential. There is a linear relationship between the energy consumption and social development, and in parallel this situation, it is seen that energy consumption increase with economic growth and prosperity. In recent year’s, energy sources consumption is increasingly continuing, because of population growth and economy in Turkey. 80% of the energy used in Turkey is supplied from abroad. At the same time, while almost all of the energy obtained from our country is met by hydropower. Alternatively, studies of determining and using potential renewable energy sources such as solar energy have been realized for recent years. In this study, first of all, the situation of energy sources was examined in Turkey. Information of reserve/capacity, production and consumption values of energy sources were emphasized. For this purpose, energy production and consumption, CO2 emission and electricity energy consumption of countries were investigated. Energy consumption and electricity energy consumption per capita were comparatively analyzed.

Keywords: energy potential, alternative energy sources, solar energy, Turkey

Procedia PDF Downloads 440