Search results for: relative risk

Authors: Elin Cahyaningsih, Dana Indra Sensuse, Wahyu Catur Wibowo, Sofiyanti Indriasari

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Bureaucracy reform program drives Indonesian government to change their management and supporting unit in order to enhance their organization performance. Information technology as one of supporting unit became one of strategic plan that organization tried to improve, because IT can automate and speed up process, reduce business process life cycle become more effective and efficient. Knowledge management system is a technology application for supporting knowledge management implementation in government which is requirement based on problem and potential functionality of each knowledge management process. Define knowledge management that suitable for each organization it is difficult, that why we should make the knowledge management system strategy as an alignment of knowledge management process in the organization. Knowledge management system is one of information system development in people perspective, because this system has high dependency in human interaction and participation. Strategic plan for developing knowledge management system can be determine using some of information system strategic methods. This research conducted to define type of strategic method of information system, stage of activity each method, the strategic method strength and weakness. The author use literature review methods for identify and classify strategic methods of information system for differentiate method type, categorize common activities, strength and weakness. Result of this research are determine and compare six strategic information system methods, there are Balanced Scorecard, Five Force Porter, SWOT analysis, Value Chain Analysis, Risk Analysis and Gap Analysis. Balanced Scorecard and Risk Analysis believe as common strategic method that usually used and have the highest excellence strength.

Keywords: knowledge management system, balanced scorecard, five force, risk analysis, gap analysis, value chain analysis, SWOT analysis

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Authors: Sıdıka Kaya, Gülay Sain Güven, Seda Karsavuran, Onur Toka

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This study is part of an ongoing research project supported by the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK) under Project Number 114K404, and participation to this conference was supported by Hacettepe University Scientific Research Coordination Unit under Project Number 10243. Evaluation of hospital readmissions is gaining importance in terms of quality and cost, and is becoming the target of national policies. In Turkey, the topic of hospital readmission is relatively new on agenda and very few studies have been conducted on this topic. The aim of this study was to determine 30-day readmission rates and risk factors for readmission. Whether readmission was planned, related to the prior admission and avoidable or not was also assessed. The study was designed as a ‘prospective cohort study.’ 472 patients hospitalized in internal medicine departments of a university hospital in Turkey between February 1, 2015 and April 30, 2015 were followed up. Analyses were conducted using IBM SPSS Statistics version 22.0 and SPSS Modeler 16.0. Average age of the patients was 56 and 56% of the patients were female. Among these patients 95 were readmitted. Overall readmission rate was calculated as 20% (95/472). However, only 31 readmissions were unplanned. Unplanned readmission rate was 6.5% (31/472). Out of 31 unplanned readmission, 24 was related to the prior admission. Only 6 related readmission was avoidable. To determine risk factors for readmission we constructed Chi-square automatic interaction detector (CHAID) decision tree algorithm. CHAID decision trees are nonparametric procedures that make no assumptions of the underlying data. This algorithm determines how independent variables best combine to predict a binary outcome based on ‘if-then’ logic by portioning each independent variable into mutually exclusive subsets based on homogeneity of the data. Independent variables we included in the analysis were: clinic of the department, occupied beds/total number of beds in the clinic at the time of discharge, age, gender, marital status, educational level, distance to residence (km), number of people living with the patient, any person to help his/her care at home after discharge (yes/no), regular source (physician) of care (yes/no), day of discharge, length of stay, ICU utilization (yes/no), total comorbidity score, means for each 3 dimensions of Readiness for Hospital Discharge Scale (patient’s personal status, patient’s knowledge, and patient’s coping ability) and number of daycare admissions within 30 days of discharge. In the analysis, we included all 95 readmitted patients (46.12%), but only 111 (53.88%) non-readmitted patients, although we had 377 non-readmitted patients, to balance data. The risk factors for readmission were found as total comorbidity score, gender, patient’s coping ability, and patient’s knowledge. The strongest identifying factor for readmission was comorbidity score. If patients’ comorbidity score was higher than 1, the risk for readmission increased. The results of this study needs to be validated by other data–sets with more patients. However, we believe that this study will guide further studies of readmission and CHAID is a useful tool for identifying risk factors for readmission.

Keywords: decision tree, hospital, internal medicine, readmission

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Authors: Halil Bas, Unal Demiray, Sukru Dursun

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Water and ground water pollution at the most of the countries is important problem. Investigation of water pollution source must be carried out to save fresh water. Because fresh water sources are very limited and recent sources are not enough for increasing population of world. In this study, investigation was carried out on pollution factors effecting the quality of the groundwater in Çorum Stream Basin in Turkey. Effect of geological structure of the region and the interaction between the stream and groundwater was researched. For the investigation, stream and groundwater sampling were performed at rainy and dry seasons to see if there is a change on quality parameters. The results were evaluated by the computer programs and then graphics, distribution maps were prepared. Thus, degree of the quality and pollution were tried to understand. According to analysis results, because the results of streams and the ground waters are not so close to each other we can say that there is no interaction between the stream and the groundwater. As the irrigation water, the stream waters are generally in the range between C3S1 region and the ground waters are generally in the range between C3S1 and C4S2 regions according to US Salinity Laboratory Diagram. According to Wilcox diagram stream waters are generally good-permissible and ground waters are generally good permissible, doubtful to unsuitable and unsuitable type. Especially ground waters are doubtful to unsuitable and unsuitable types in dry season. It may be assumed that as the result of relative increase in concentration of salt minerals. Especially samples from groundwater wells bored close to gypsium bearing units have high hardness, electrical conductivity and salinity values. Thus for drinking and irrigation these waters are determined as unsuitable. As a result of these studies, it is understood that the groundwater especially was effected by the lithological contamination rather than the anthropogenic or the other types of pollution. Because the alluvium is covered by the silt and clay lithology it is not affected by the anthropogenic and the other foreign factors. The results of solid waste disposal site leachate indicate that this site would have a risk potential for pollution in the future. Although the parameters did not exceed the maximum dangerous values it does not mean that they will not be dangerous in the future, and this case must be taken into account.

Keywords: Çorum, environment, groundwater, hydrogeology, geology, pollution, quality, stream

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Authors: Sabina Garayeva

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To determine the significant risk factors for intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR), we carried out a thorough study of the social status of the parents of children with IUGR. We observed 315 mothers who gave birth to children with (IUGR), of which 172 mothers with asymmetric type and 143 mothers with symmetric type of IUGR. Through a detailed survey was gathered detailed information about education of parents. The results show that the majority of mothers with IUGR had secondary education (44,8 ± 2,8%), and fathers - higher education (35,2 ± 2,7%). Whereas in the control group, the largest number of parents had higher education (mother 35,3 ± 4,4%, fathers 42,9 ± 4,5%). Number of mothers with secondary education with IUGR was significantly (p1 <0,01; χ2 = 22,67) differs from the number of mothers with physiological pregnancy with the same level of education. Meanwhile, in the group with a symmetrical embodiment of IUGR mothers with secondary formation of significantly greater 53,1 ± 4,2%, than the asymmetric embodiment IUGR 37,8 ± 3,7% (p2 <0,05; χ2 = 8 06). Among fathers with secondary education significant difference was noted in the symmetric version of IUGR 37,8 ± 4,1% more than in the control group (p1 <0,05), and among parents of children with asymmetric IUGR option prevailed fathers with higher education - 37 2 ± 3,7%. Thus, our results revealed a low educational level of the mother as a risk factor for IUGR, which further help to develop preventive and therapeutic measures to eliminate the severity of its consequences. As seen from the data presented, mothers of children with asymmetric IUGR had a school education and fathers - higher education, while in the symmetric type of both parents had secondary education. It is found that frequency of children, born with IUGR, of mothers - housewives and fathers, engage in physical labor, was high. Thus, the analysis conducted by the social status of the parents with IUGR revealed a low level of education and unemployed mothers as risk factors for this disease, which in the future will help to develop preventive and therapeutic measures to eliminate the severity of its.

Keywords: intrauterine growth restriction, education of mothers, education influence, IUGR

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Authors: Ali Kassem

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Background: In the last few years, factors such as insulin resistance (IR) and hepatic steatosis have been linked to progression of hepatic fibrosis.Patients with chronic liver disease, and cirrhosis in particular, are known to be prone to IR. However, chronic HCV (hepatitis C) infection may induce IR, regardless of the presence of liver cirrhosis. Our aims are to study insulin resistance (IR) assessed by HOMA-IR (Homeostatic Model Assessment Insulin Resistance) as a possible risk factor in disease progression in cirrhotic patients and to evaluate the role of IR in hepatic fibrosis progression. The correlations of HOMA-IR values to laboratory, virological and histopathological parameters of chronic HCV are also examined. Methods: The study included 50 people divided into 30 adult chronic hepatitis C patients diagnosed by PCR (polymerase chain reaction) within previous 6 months and 20 healthy controls. The functional and morphological status of the liver were evaluated by ultrasonography and laboratory investigations including liver function tests and by liver biopsy. Fasting blood glucose and fasting insulin levels were measured and body mass index and insulin resistance were calculated. Patients having HOMA-IR >2.5 were labeled as insulin resistant. Results: Chronic hepatitis C patients with IR showed significantly higher mean values of BMI (body mass index) and fasting insulin than those without IR (P < 0.000). Patients with IR were more likely to have steatosis (p = 0.006), higher necroinflammatory activity (p = 0.05). No significant differences were found between the two groups regarding hepatic fibrosis. Conclusion: HOMA-IR measurement could represent a novel marker to identify the cirrhotic patients at greater risk for the progression of liver disease. As IR is a potentially modifiable risk factor, these findings may have important prognostic and therapeutic implications. Assessment of IR by HOMA-IR and improving insulin sensitivity are recommended in patients with HCV and related chronic liver disease.

Keywords: hepatic fibrosis, hepatitis C virus infection, hepatic steatosis, insulin resistance

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Authors: Ronald Mraz, Gary C. Kessler, Ethan Gold, John G. Cline

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The International Ice Patrol (IIP) continually monitors iceberg activity in the North Atlantic by direct observation using ships, aircraft, and satellite imagery. Daily reports detailing navigational boundaries of icebergs have significantly reduced the risk of iceberg contact. What is currently lacking is formatting this data for automatic transmission and display of iceberg navigational boundaries in commercial navigation equipment. This paper describes the methodology and implementation of a system to format iceberg limit information for dissemination through existing radio network communications. This information will then automatically display on commercial navigation equipment. Additionally, this information is reformatted for Google Earth rendering of iceberg track line limits. Having iceberg limit information automatically available in standard navigation equipment will help support full autonomous operation of sailing vessels.

Keywords: iceberg, iceberg risk, iceberg track lines, AIS messaging, international ice patrol, North American ice service, google earth, autonomous surface vessels

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Authors: Xin Jie Li

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Due to population agglomeration, huge scale, and complex activities, megacities have become risk centers. To resist the risks brought by development uncertainty, the construction of resilient cities has become a common strategic choice for megacities. As a key link in promoting the modernization of the national governance system and governance capacity, optimizing the layout of national land space that focuses on ecology, production, and life and improving the rationality of spatial resource allocation are conducive to fundamentally promoting the resilience construction of megacities. Therefore, based on the perspective of territorial space governance, this article explores the potential risks faced by the territorial space of megacities and proposes possible paths for the resilience construction of megacities from four aspects: promoting the construction of a resilience system throughout the entire life cycle, constructing a disaster prevention and control system with ecological resilience, creating an industrial spatial pattern with production resilience, and enhancing community resilience to anchor the front line of risk response in megacities.

Keywords: mega cities, potential risks, resilient city construction, territorial and spatial governance

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Authors: Renee Fabian, Jordan Davidson

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Current research on non-suicidal self-injury (NSSI) provides ample insights on best practices for caregivers and clinicians to address and reduce NSSI behavior among adolescents. However, the efficacy of evidenced-based NSSI interventions and their delivery from the perspective of adolescent patients does not receive significant attention, creating a gap between the efficacy of research-based NSSI interventions and adolescent perceptions of NSSI treatment and adolescent willingness to engage in NSSI interventions. To address the gap between practice and patient perspectives and inform more effective treatment outcomes, the current survey aims to identify major patient-reported adverse reactions to NSSI disclosures from caregivers, treating mental health clinicians, and medical professionals using a mixed methods survey of 2,500 people with a history of NSSI completed by editors at a consumer-facing health publication. Based on the analyzed results of the survey, a majority of adolescents with a history of NSSI found parents and caregivers ineffective at empathetically addressing NSSI, and a significant number of participants reported at least one treating mental health professional inadequately responded to NSSI behaviors, in addition to other findings of adverse reactions to NSSI disclosures that serve as a barrier to treatment. NSSI is a significant risk factor for future suicide attempts. Addressing patient-reported adverse reactions to NSSI disclosures in the adolescent population can remove barriers to the effectiveness of caregiver and clinician NSSI interventions and reduce the risk of NSSI-related harm and lower the risk of future suicide attempts or completions.

Keywords: adolescent self-injury, non-suicidal self-injury, patient perspectives, self-harm interventions

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Authors: Ljiljana Stojković, Manja Zec, Maja Zivkovic, Maja Bundalo, Marija Glibetić, Dragan Alavantić, Aleksandra Stankovic

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Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is associated with alterations in DNA methylation, the latter modulated by dietary polyphenols. The present pilot study (part of the original clinical study registered as NCT02800967 at www.clinicaltrials.gov) aimed to investigate the impact of 4-week daily consumption of polyphenol-rich Aronia melanocarpa juice on Long Interspersed Nucleotide Element-1 (LINE-1) methylation in peripheral blood leukocytes, in subjects (n=34, age of 41.1±6.6 years) at moderate CVD risk, including an increased body mass index, central obesity, high normal blood pressure and/or dyslipidemia. The goal was also to examine whether factors known to affect DNA methylation, such as folate intake levels, MTHFR C677T gene variant, as well as the anthropometric and metabolic parameters, modulated the LINE-1 methylation levels upon consumption of polyphenol-rich Aronia juice. The experimental analysis of LINE-1 methylation was done by the MethyLight method. MTHFR C677T genotypes were determined by the polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism method. Folate intake was assessed by processing the data from the food frequency questionnaire and repeated 24-hour dietary recalls. Serum lipid profile was determined by using Roche Diagnostics kits. The statistical analyses were performed using the Statistica software package. In women, after vs. before the treatment period, a significant decrease in LINE-1 methylation levels was observed (97.54±1.50% vs. 98.39±0.86%, respectively; P=0.01). The change (after vs. before treatment) in LINE-1 methylation correlated directly with MTHFR 677T allele presence, average daily folate intake and the change in serum low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, while inversely with the change in serum triacylglycerols (R=0.72, R2=0.52, adjusted R2=0.36, P=0.03). The current results imply potential cardioprotective effects of habitual polyphenol-rich Aronia juice consumption achieved through the modifications of DNA methylation pattern in subjects at CVD risk, which should be further confirmed. Hence, the precision nutrition-driven modulations of DNA methylation may become targets for new approaches in the prevention and treatment of CVD.

Keywords: Aronia melanocarpa, cardiovascular risk, LINE-1, methylation, peripheral blood leukocytes, polyphenol

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Authors: Robyn White, Juan Bornman, Ensa Johnson

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People with disabilities are at a high risk of becoming victims of crime. Individuals with little or no functional speech (LNFS) face an even higher risk. One way of reducing the risk of remaining a victim of crime is to face the alleged perpetrator in court as a witness – therefore it is important for a person with LNFS who has been a victim of crime to have the required vocabulary to testify in court. The aim of this study was to identify and describe the core and fringe legal vocabulary required by illiterate victims of crime, who have little or no functional speech, to testify in court as witnesses. A mixed-method, the exploratory sequential design consisting of two distinct phases was used to address the aim of the research. The first phase was of a qualitative nature and included two different data sources, namely in-depth semi-structured interviews and focus group discussions. The overall aim of this phase was to identify and describe core and fringe legal vocabulary and to develop a measurement instrument based on these results. Results from Phase 1 were used in Phase 2, the quantitative phase, during which the measurement instrument (a custom-designed questionnaire) was socially validated. The results produced six distinct vocabulary categories that represent the legal core vocabulary and 99 words that represent the legal fringe vocabulary. The findings suggested that communication boards should be individualised to the individual and the specific crime. It is believed that the vocabulary lists developed in this study act as a valid and reliable springboard from which communication boards can be developed. Recommendations were therefore made to develop an Alternative and Augmentative Communication Resource Tool Kit to assist the legal justice system.

Keywords: augmentative and alternative communication, person with little or no functional speech, sexual crimes, testifying in court, victim of crime, witness competency

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Authors: Ainura Tursunalieva, Irene Hudson

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Continuous improvement of both the quality and safety of health care is an important goal in Australia and internationally. The intensive care unit (ICU) receives patients with a wide variety of and severity of illnesses. Accurately identifying patients at risk of developing complications or dying is crucial to increasing healthcare efficiency. Thus, it is essential for clinicians and researchers to have a robust framework capable of evaluating the risk profile of a patient. ICU scoring systems provide such a framework. The Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation III and the Simplified Acute Physiology Score II are ICU scoring systems frequently used for assessing the severity of acute illness. These scoring systems collect multiple risk factors for each patient including physiological measurements then render the assessment outcomes of individual risk factors into a single numerical value. A higher score is related to a more severe patient condition. Furthermore, the Mortality Probability Model II uses logistic regression based on independent risk factors to predict a patient’s probability of mortality. An important overlooked limitation of SAPS II and MPM II is that they do not, to date, include interaction terms between a patient’s vital signs. This is a prominent oversight as it is likely there is an interplay among vital signs. The co-existence of certain conditions may pose a greater health risk than when these conditions exist independently. One barrier to including such interaction terms in predictive models is the dimensionality issue as it becomes difficult to use variable selection. We propose an innovative scoring system which takes into account a dependence structure among patient’s vital signs, such as systolic and diastolic blood pressures, heart rate, pulse interval, and peripheral oxygen saturation. Copulas will capture the dependence among normally distributed and skewed variables as some of the vital sign distributions are skewed. The estimated dependence parameter will then be incorporated into the traditional scoring systems to adjust the points allocated for the individual vital sign measurements. The same dependence parameter will also be used to create an alternative copula-based model for predicting a patient’s probability of mortality. The new copula-based approach will accommodate not only a patient’s trajectories of vital signs but also the joint dependence probabilities among the vital signs. We hypothesise that this approach will produce more stable assessments and lead to more time efficient and accurate predictions. We will use two data sets: (1) 250 ICU patients admitted once to the Chui Regional Hospital (Kyrgyzstan) and (2) 37 ICU patients’ agitation-sedation profiles collected by the Hunter Medical Research Institute (Australia). Both the traditional scoring approach and our copula-based approach will be evaluated using the Brier score to indicate overall model performance, the concordance (or c) statistic to indicate the discriminative ability (or area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve), and goodness-of-fit statistics for calibration. We will also report discrimination and calibration values and establish visualization of the copulas and high dimensional regions of risk interrelating two or three vital signs in so-called higher dimensional ROCs.

Keywords: copula, intensive unit scoring system, ROC curves, vital sign dependence

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Authors: Marcelo Lopes Dias Kolling, Felipe Ferreira Laranjeira, Guilherme Augusto Hettwer, Pedro Salomão Piccinini, Marwan Masri, Carlos Oscar Uebel

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Introduction: Injectable fillers are among the most common nonsurgical cosmetic procedures, with significant growth yearly. Knowledge of rheological and mechanical characteristics of fillers, facial anatomy, and injection technique is essential for safety. Concepts such as the use of cannula versus needle, aspiration before injection, and facial danger zones have been well discussed. In case of an accidental intravascular puncture, the pressure inside the vessel may not be sufficient to push blood into the syringe due to the characteristics of the filler product; this is especially true for calcium hydroxyapatite (CaHA) or hyaluronic acid (HA) fillers with high G’. Since viscoelastic properties of normal saline are much lower than those of fillers, aspiration with saline prior to filler injection may decrease the risk of a false negative aspiration and subsequent catastrophic effects. We discuss a technique to add an additional safety step to the procedure with saline aspiration prior to injection, a ‘’reverse Seldinger’’ technique for intravascular access, which we term SANIT: Saline Aspiration Negative Intravascular Test. Objectives: To demonstrate the author’s (PSP) technique which adds an additional safety step to the process of filler injection, with both CaHA and HA, in order to decrease the risk of intravascular injection. Materials and Methods: Normal skin cleansing and topical anesthesia with prilocaine/lidocaine cream are performed; the facial subunits to be treated are marked. A 3mL Luer lock syringe is filled with 2mL of 0.9% normal saline and a 27G needle, which is turned one half rotation. When a cannula is to be used, the Luer lock syringe is attached to a 27G 4cm single hole disposable cannula. After skin puncture, the 3mL syringe is advanced with the plunger pulled back (negative pressure). Progress is made to the desired depth, all the while aspirating. Once the desired location of filler injection is reached, the syringe is exchanged for the syringe containing a filler, securely grabbing the hub of the needle and taking care to not dislodge the needle tip. Prior to this, we remove 0.1mL of filler to allow for space inside the syringe for aspiration. We again aspirate and inject retrograde. SANIT is especially useful for CaHA, since the G’ is much higher than HA, and thus reflux of blood into the syringe is less likely to occur. Results: The technique has been used safely for the past two years with no adverse events; the increase in cost is negligible (only the cost of 2mL of normal saline). Over 100 patients (over 300 syringes) have been treated with this technique. The risk of accidental intravascular puncture has been calculated to be between 1:6410 to 1:40882 syringes among expert injectors; however, the consequences of intravascular injection can be catastrophic even with board-certified physicians. Conclusions: While the risk of intravascular filler injection is low, the consequences can be disastrous. We believe that adding the SANIT technique can help further mitigate risk with no significant untoward effects and could be considered by all performing injectable fillers. Further follow-up is ongoing.

Keywords: injectable fillers, safety, saline aspiration, injectable filler complications, hyaluronic acid, calcium hydroxyapatite

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Authors: Lena Payati, Maria Kazou, Effie Tsakalidou

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Table olives are one of the most popular fermented vegetables worldwide, which along with olive oil, have a crucial role in the world economy. They are highly appreciated by the consumers for their characteristic taste and pleasant aromas, while several health and nutritional benefits have been reported as well. Until recently, microbial biogeography, i.e., the study of microbial diversity over time and space, has been mainly associated with wine. However, nowadays, the term 'terroir' has been extended to other crops and food products so as to link the geographical origin and environmental conditions to quality aspects of fermented foods. Taking the above into consideration, the present study focuses on the microbial fingerprinting of the most important olive varieties of Greece with the state-of-the-art amplicon-based metagenomics analysis. Towards this, in 2019, 61 samples from 38 different olive varieties were collected at the final stage of ripening from 13 well spread geographical regions in Greece. For the metagenomics analysis, total DNA was extracted from the olive samples, and the 16S rRNA gene and ITS DNA region were sequenced and analyzed using bioinformatics tools for the identification of bacterial and yeasts/fungal diversity, respectively. Furthermore, principal component analysis (PCA) was also performed for data clustering based on the average microbial composition of all samples from each region of origin. According to the composition, results obtained, when samples were analyzed separately, the majority of both bacteria (such as Pantoea, Enterobacter, Roserbergiella, and Pseudomonas) and yeasts/fungi (such as Aureobasidium, Debaromyces, Candida, and Cladosporium) genera identified were found in all 61 samples. Even though interesting differences were observed at the relative abundance level of the identified genera, the bacterial genus Pantoea and the yeast/fungi genus Aureobasidium were the dominant ones in 35 and 40 samples, respectively. Of note, olive samples collected from the same region had similar fingerprint (genera identified and relative abundance level) regardless of the variety, indicating a potential association between the relative abundance of certain taxa and the geographical region. When samples were grouped by region of origin, distinct bacterial profiles per region were observed, which was also evident from the PCA analysis. This was not the case for the yeast/fungi profiles since 10 out of the 13 regions were grouped together mainly due to the dominance of the genus Aureobasidium. A second cluster was formed for the islands Crete and Rhodes, both of which are located in the Southeast Aegean Sea. These two regions clustered together mainly due to the identification of the genus Toxicocladosporium in relatively high abundances. Finally, the Agrinio region was separated from the others as it showed a completely different microbial fingerprinting. However, due to the limited number of olive samples from some regions, a subsequent PCA analysis with more samples from these regions is expected to yield in a more clear clustering. The present study is part of a bigger project, the first of its kind in Greece, with the ultimate goal to analyze a larger set of olive samples of different varieties and from different regions in Greece in order to have a reliable olives’ microbial biogeography.

Keywords: amplicon-based metagenomics analysis, bacteria, microbial biogeography, olive microbiota, yeasts/fungi

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Authors: Mahmoud Reza Tahamtan, Mohammad Saleh Bahreini

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Background and Purpose: Cystic echinococcosis, caused by the larval stage of Echinococcus granulosus, is a common parasitic infection of humans and is endemic in many parts of the world, including Iran. So that, one percent of those admitted to surgery departments are hydatid cyst patients, and using the ELISA method, the infection rate has been reported in different regions of Iran from 1.2% to 21.4%. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate the seroepidemiology of human hydatid cysts in Fars province, southern Iran, by ELISA method. Methods: In this cross-sectional study, 600 serum samples of persons who were referred to the laboratory of Nemazi Hospital in Shiraz for normal tests were examined for the presence of specific Anti-IgG antibodies to hydatid cysts by ELISA method. During the sampling, a structured questionnaire was used to obtain social data of individuals with determinants of risk factors for Cystic echinococcosis. Finally, the results of the ELISA test, along with demographic information completed by individuals, were analyzed using SPSS software. Results: The average age of the subjects in this study was 40.01 ± 9.166. The prevalence of hydatidosis was reported as 5.66% (34/600). The disease was more in the age group of 21-30, people living in villages, working in rural areas, and people with a history of other parasitic diseases. Statistically, a significant difference was observed between the prevalence of the disease and two risk factors, contact with dogs (OR= 0.042; 95%CI: 0.014-0.12; P= 0.001) and washing vegetables with water (OR= 0.08; 95%CI: 0.011-0.56; P= 0.012). Conclusion: The present study showed that hydatid cyst disease has a significant prevalence in this area. Also, based on the results, contact with dogs and not properly washing vegetables are two important factors of disease transmission.

Keywords: Echinococcus granulosus, Cystic echinococcosis, hydatid cyst, Fars province

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Authors: Ali Azeem, Seung-Cheol Hong

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This study focuses on the epidemiological association between childhood leukaemia & adult brain cancer to offer strong evidence that extremely low-frequency magnetic field (ELF-MF) produced from power lines caused cancer. It also gives a comprehensive literature review on epidemiological studies of ELF-MF risk associated with HVTL and childhood leukaemia & adult brain cancer. From the literature review, it is concluded that there is a weak association present between ELF-MF and childhood leukaemia. No consistent association was present between brain cancer and ELF-MF. This study is done on Scielo data and PubMed using the terms extremely low-frequency magnetic field (ELF-MF+cancer), adult brain cancer, high power transmission lines, etc., for the past 10 years.

Keywords: childhood leukaemia, high voltage transmission lines, acute lymphoblastic leukaemia, power lines

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Authors: Priyanka Devi, Mohammad Muzzaffar Khan, G. Kalyan Kumar

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Liquefaction of saturated soils due to dynamic loading is an important and interesting area in the field of geotechnical earthquake engineering. When the soil liquefies, the structures built on it develops uneven settlements thereby producing cracks in the structure and weakening the foundation. The 1964 Alaskan Good Friday earthquake, the 1989 San Francisco earthquake and 2011 Tōhoku earthquake are some of the examples of liquefaction occurred due to an earthquake. To mitigate the effect of liquefaction, several methods such use of stone columns, increasing the vertical stress, compaction and removal of liquefiable soil are practiced. Grouting is one of those methods used to increase the strength of the foundation and develop resistance to liquefaction of soil without affecting the superstructure. In the present study, an attempt has been made to investigate the undrained cyclic behavior of locally available soil, stabilized by cement to mitigate the seismically induced soil liquefaction. The specimens of 75mm diameter and 150mm height were reconstituted in the laboratory using water sedimentation technique. A series of strain-controlled cyclic triaxial tests were performed on saturated soil samples followed by consolidation. The effects of amplitude, confining pressure and relative density on the dynamic behavior of sand was studied for soil samples with varying cement content. The results obtained from the present study on loose specimens and medium dense specimens indicate that (i) the higher the relative density, the more will be the liquefaction resistance, (ii) with increase of effective confining pressure, a decrease in developing of excess pore water pressure during cyclic loading was observed and (iii) sand specimens treated with cement showed reduced excess pore pressures and increased liquefaction resistance suggesting it as one of the mitigation methods.

Keywords: cyclic triaxial test, liquefaction, soil-cement stabilization, pore pressure ratio

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Authors: Alec Wells, Aminu Bello Usman, Justin McKeown

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The growing usage of smart speakers raises many privacy and trust concerns compared to other technologies such as smart phones and computers. In this study, a proxy measure of trust is used to gauge users’ opinions on three different technologies based on an empirical study, and to understand which technology most people are most likely to trust. The collected data were analysed using the Kruskal-Wallis H test to determine the statistical differences between the users’ trust level of the three technologies: smart speaker, computer and smart phone. The findings of the study revealed that despite the wide acceptance, ease of use and reputation of smart speakers, people find it difficult to trust smart speakers with their sensitive information via the Direct Voice Input (DVI) and would prefer to use a keyboard or touchscreen offered by computers and smart phones. Findings from this study can inform future work on users’ trust in technology based on perceived ease of use, reputation, perceived credibility and risk of using technologies via DVI.

Keywords: direct voice input, risk, security, technology, trust

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Authors: Pillay J. D., D. De Wit, J. F. Ducray

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Field hockey is a popular international sport which is played in more than 100 countries across the world. Due to the nature of hockey, players repeatedly perform a combination of forward flexion and rotational movements of the spine in order to strike the ball. These movements have been shown to increase the risk of pain and injury to the lumbar spine. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence and incidence of low back pain (LBP) in male adolescent field hockey players and the characteristics of LBP in terms of location, chronicity, disability, and treatment sought, as well as its association with selected risk factors. A survey was conducted on 112 male adolescent field hockey players in the eThekwini Municipality of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. The questionnaire contained sections on the demographics of participants, general characteristics of participants, health and lifestyle characteristics, low back pain patterns, treatment of low back pain, and the level of disability associated with LBP. The data were statistically analysed using IBM SPSS version 25 with statistical significance set at p-value <0.05. Descriptive statistics such as mean and standard deviation were used to summarise responses to continuous variables as appropriate. Categorical variables were described using frequency tables. Associations between risk factors and low back pain were tested using Pearson’s chi-square test and t-tests as appropriate. A total of 68 questionnaires were completed for analysis (67% participation rate); the period prevalence of LBP was 63.2% (35.0%:beginning of the season, 32.4%:mid-season, 22.1%: end of season). Incidence was 38.2%. The most common location for LBP was the middle low back region (39.5%), and the most common duration of pain was a few hours (32.6%). Most participants (79.1%) did not classify their pain as a disability, and only 44.2% of participants received medical treatment for their LBP. An interesting finding was the association between hydration and LBP (p = 0.050), i.e., those individuals who did not hydrate frequently during matches and training were significantly more likely to experience LBP. The results of this study, although limited to a select group of adolescents, showed a higher prevalence of LBP than that of previous studies. More importantly, even though most participants did not experience LBP classified as a disability, LBP still had a large impact on participants, as nearly half of the participants consulted with a medical professional for treatment. Need for the application of further strategies in the prevention and management of LBP in field hockey, such as adequate warm-up and cool-down, stretching exercises, rest between sessions, etc., are recommended as simple strategies to reduce LBP prevalence.

Keywords: adolescents, field hockey players, incidence, low back pain, prevalence, risk factors

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Authors: Dina Mohamed Ayman, Rafieu Akin

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In an attempt to increase the female total entrepreneurial activities (TEA) within Egypt and Nigeria, this paper aims to investigate the challenges facing female entrepreneurs operating in Egypt, in relative to Nigeria. In this regard, both researchers undertook a qualitative approach due to the scarcity of the literature reviewed on the topic; in those particular countries, and as an in-depth comparative mode. Therefore, ten Egyptian entrepreneurs in relative to ten Nigerian entrepreneurs were in-depth investigated. The research findings prove that female entrepreneurs face complex problems for being both gender and country-specific. Regarding the gender-specific obstacles, the work/life imbalance due to the scarcity of child-care nurseries and the prevalence of the gender-role division while performing the house chores rather than the concept of co-operation, acted as a main source of cultural challenge because women are considered mostly as 'housewives'. However, interestingly, this specific gender-discrimination challenge is proven to have no grounded effect in terms of the business-establishment and daily dealings neither in Egypt nor Nigeria, as one of the sample exclaimed 'as long as you pay, then no gender difference is set on the table'. Other country-specific challenges facing female entrepreneurs, lied in, the aggregate weak entrepreneurial framework governing both countries, also, women faced the difficulty of access to financial institutions with collateral requirements that are usually "hardly to be met", besides, the absence of the "micro-credit-Grameen-banks" concept. As well, the scarcity of incubators and business training centers providing network, consultancy and well-trained workforce to female entrepreneurs constitute a major hurdle for women entrepreneurs operating in both countries. Finally, this paper will conclude the research by offering a set of public-policy recommendations to pave the way for females to choose self-employment as a career path.

Keywords: entrepreneurship, female entrepreneurship, obstacles, framework conditions, culture, micro-credit

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Authors: Stefano Zappacosta, Cristiano Bove, Maria Carmela Marinelli, Paola di Lauro, Katarina Spasenovic, Lorenzo Ostano, Giuseppe Aiello, Marco Pietrosanto

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This paper proposes a novel neural network approach for assessing flood hazard mapping. The core of the model is a machine learning component fed by frequency ratios, namely statistical correlations between flood event occurrences and a selected number of topographic properties. The proposed hybrid model can be used to classify four different increasing levels of hazard. The classification capability was compared with the flood hazard mapping River Basin Plans (PAI) designed by the Italian Institute for Environmental Research and Defence, ISPRA (Istituto Superiore per la Protezione e la Ricerca Ambientale). The study area of Piemonte, an Italian region, has been considered without loss of generality. The frequency ratios may be used as a standalone block to model the flood hazard mapping. Nevertheless, the mixture with a neural network improves the classification power of several percentage points, and may be proposed as a basic tool to model the flood hazard map in a wider scope.

Keywords: flood modeling, hazard map, neural networks, hydrogeological risk, flood risk assessment

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Authors: Amani Waheed, Adel Mishriky, Rasha Farouk, Essam Abdallah, Sarah Hussein

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Background: Occupational stress plays a crucial role in professional drivers' health. They are exposed to high workloads, low physical activity, high demand and low decisions as well as poor lifestyle factors including poor diet, sedentary work, and smoking. Dyslipidemia is a well-established modifiable cardiovascular risk factor. Occupational stress and other forms of chronic stress have been associated with raised levels of atherogenic lipids. Although stress management has some evidence in improving lipid profile, the association between occupational stress and dyslipidemia is not clear. Objectives: To assess the relational between occupational stress and lipid profile among professional drivers. Methodology: A cross-sectional study conducted at a large company in Ismailia City, Egypt, where, 131 professional drivers divided into 44 car drivers, 43 bus drivers, and 44 truck drivers were eligible after applying exclusion criteria. Occupational stress index (OSI), non-occupational risk factors of dyslipidemia were assessed using interview structured questionnaire. Blood pressure, body mass index (BMI) and lipid profile were measured. Results: The mean of total OSI score was 79.98 ± 6.14. The total OSI score is highest among truck drivers (82.16 ± 4.62), then bus drivers (80.26 ± 6.02) and lowest among car drivers (77.55 ± 6.79) with statistically significant. Eighty percent had Dyslipidemia. The duration of driving hours per day, exposure to passive smoking and increased BMI were the risk factors. No statistical significance between Total OSI score and dyslipidemia. Using, logistic regression analysis, occupational stress, duration of driving hours per day, and BMI were positive significant predictors for dyslipidemia. Conclusion: Professional drivers are exposed to occupational stress. A high proportion of drivers have dyslipidemia. Total OSI score doesn't have statistically significant relation with dyslipidemia.

Keywords: body mass index, dyslipidaemia, occupational stress, professional drivers

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Authors: Wangshi Yong, Wei Shi, Jing Zou, Qiang Li, Yilin Tian

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With the advancement of the reform of China’s housing security system, the impact is becoming increasingly profound. This paper explores the relationship between the housing security system and household entrepreneurship on the 2017 China Household Finance Survey (CHFS) and conducts a large number of robustness checks, including PSM and IV estimation. The results show that the assistance of the housing security system will significantly promote family entrepreneurship, increasing the probability of entrepreneurship by 2%. Its internal mechanism is mainly achieved by relaxing liquidity constraints and increasing household social capital. However, the risk preference effect has not existed. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the positive impact of the housing security system on family entrepreneurship is mainly reflected in areas with high housing prices and incomes, as well as households with long-term security and social or commercial insurance. Meanwhile, it also verifies that the positive externalities of the housing security system will also positively affect active entrepreneurial motivation, entrepreneurial intensity, and entrepreneurial innovation.

Keywords: the housing security system, household entrepreneurship, social capital, liquidity constraints, risk preference

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Authors: Ayoub El Bourtali, Abdessamed Najine, Amrou Moussa Benmoussa

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It is becoming more and more necessary to manage flood risk, and it must include all stakeholders and all possible means available. The goal of this work is to map the vulnerability of the Oued Derna-region Tagzirt flood zone in the semi-arid region. This is about implementing predictive models and flood control. This allows for the development of flood risk prevention plans. In this study, A resistivity survey was conducted over the area to locate and evaluate soil characteristics in order to calculate discharges and prevent flooding for the study area. The development of a one-dimensional (1D) hydrodynamic model of the Derna River was carried out in HEC-RAS 5.0.4 using a combination of survey data and spatially extracted cross-sections and recorded river flows. The study area was hit by several extreme floods, causing a lot of property loss and loss of life. This research focuses on the most recent flood events, based on the collected data, the water level, river flow and river cross-section were analyzed. A set of flood levels were obtained as the outputs of the hydraulic model and the accuracy of the simulated flood levels and velocity.

Keywords: derna river, 1D hydrodynamic model, flood modelling, HEC-RAS 5.0.4

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Authors: Lise Alonso, Audrey Dubost, Patricia Luis, Thomas Pommier, Yvan Moënne-Loccoz

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The Lascaux Cave in South-Est France is an archeological landmark renowned for its Paleolithic paintings dating back c.18.000 years. Extensive touristic frequenting and repeated chemical treatments have resulted in the development of microbial stains on cave walls, which is a major issue in terms of art conservation. Therefore, it is of prime importance to better understand the microbiology specific to the Lascaux Cave, in comparison to regional situations. To this end, we compared the microbial community (i.e. both prokaryotic and eukaryotic microbial populations) of Lascaux Cave with three other anthropized Périgord caves as well as three pristine caves from the same area. We used state-of-the-art metagenomic analyses of cave wall samples to obtain a global view of the composition of the microbial community colonizing cave walls. We measured the relative abundance and diversity of four DNA markers targeting different fractions of the ribosomal genes of bacteria (i.e. eubacteria), archaea (i.e. archeobacteria), fungi and other micro-eukaryotes. All groups were highly abundant and diverse in all Périgord caves, as several hundred genera of microorganisms were identified in each. However, Lascaux Cave displayed a specify microbial community, which differed from those of both pristine and anthropized caves. Comparison of stains versus non-stained samples from the Passage area of the Lascaux Cave indicated that a few taxa (e.g. the Sordiaromycetes amongst fungi) were more prevalent within than outside stains, yet the main difference was in the relative proportion of the different microbial taxonomic groups and genera, which supposedly supports the biological origin of the stains. Overall, metagenomic sequencing of cave wall samples was effective to evidence the large colonization of caves by a diversified range of microorganisms. It also showed that Lascaux Cave represented a very particular situation in comparison with neighboring caves, probably in relation to the extent of disturbance it had undergone. Our results provide key baseline information to guide conservation efforts in anthropized caves such as Lascaux and pave the way to modern monitoring of ornamented caves.

Keywords: cave conservation, Lascaux cave, microbes, paleolithic paintings

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Authors: Alyona Gencheva

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The most common way to study diagnostic results is using specialized programs at a stationary workplace. Magnetic Resonance Imaging is presented in a two-dimensional (2D) format, and Computed Tomography sometimes looks like a three-dimensional (3D) model that can be interacted with. The main idea of the research is to compare ways of displaying diagnostic results in virtual reality that can help a surgeon during or before an operation in augmented reality. During the experiment, the medical staff examined liver vessels in the abdominal area and heart boundaries. The search time and detection accuracy were measured on black-and-white and coloured scans. Usability testing in virtual reality shows convenient ways of interaction like hand input, voice activation, displaying risk to the patient, and the required number of scans. The results of the experiment will be used in the new C# program based on Magic Leap technology.

Keywords: augmented reality, computed tomography, magic leap, magnetic resonance imaging, usability testing, VTE risk

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Authors: E. Mattio

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The aim of this project is to study the Chinese presence in Ethiopia, following the path of the last salt caravans from Danakil to Tigray region. Official estimates of the number of Chinese in Africa vary widely; on the continent, there are increasingly diverse groups of Chinese migrants in terms of language, dialect, class, education, and employment. Based on this and on a very general state of the art, it was decided to increase the studies on this phenomenon, documenting the extraction of salt and following the sellers in the north of the country. The project is unique and allows you to admire a landscape that will soon change, due to the construction of infrastructure that is changing the dynamics of movement and sales. To carry out this study, interdisciplinary investigation methods were integrated, such as landscape archeology, historiographic research, participatory anthropology, geopolitics, and cultural anthropology and ethnology. There are two main objectives of the research. The first was an analysis of risk perceptions to predict what will happen to these populations and how the territory will be modified, trying to monitor the growth of infrastructure in the country and the effects it will have on the population. Thanks to the use of GIS, some roads created by Chinese companies that worked in the area have been georeferenced. The second point was to document the life and rituals of Ethiopian populations, in order not to lose the aspects of uniqueness that risk being lost. The local interviews have garnered impressions and criticisms from the local population to understand whether the Chinese presence is perceived as a threat or a solution. Among the most exclusive interviews, there are those made to Afar leaders in the Logya area and some Coptic representatives in the Wukro area. To make this project even more unique, the Coptic rituals of Gennà and Timkat have been documented, unique expressions of a millennial tradition. The aim was to understand whether the Maoist presence began to influence the religious rites and forms of belief present in the country.

Keywords: China, Ethiopia, GIS, risk perceptions

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Authors: B. S. Chaudhary

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The severity and frequencies of different disasters on the globe is increasing in recent years. India is also facing the disasters in the form of drought, cyclone, earthquake, landslides, and floods. One of the major causes of disasters in northern India is flood. There are great losses and extensive damage to the agricultural crops, property, human, and animal life. This is causing environmental imbalances at places. The annual global figures for losses due to floods run into over 2 billion dollar. India is a vast country with wide variations in climate and topography. Due to widespread and heavy rainfall during the monsoon months, floods of varying magnitude occur all over the country during June to September. The magnitude depends upon the intensity of rainfall, its duration and also the ground conditions at the time of rainfall. Haryana, one of the agriculturally dominated northern states is also suffering from a number of disasters such as floods, desertification, soil erosion, land degradation etc. Earthquakes are also frequently occurring but of small magnitude so are not causing much concern and damage. Most of the damage in Haryana is due to floods. Floods in Haryana have occurred in 1978, 1988, 1993, 1995, 1998, and 2010 to mention a few. The present paper deals with the Remote Sensing and GIS applications in preparing flood risk maps in parts of Haryana State India. The satellite data of various years have been used for mapping of flood affected areas. The Flooded areas have been interpreted both visually and digitally and two classes-flooded and receded water/ wet areas have been identified for each year. These have been analyzed in GIS environment to prepare the risk maps. This shows the areas of high, moderate and low risk depending on the frequency of flood witness. The floods leave a trail of suffering in the form of unhygienic conditions due to improper sanitation, water logging, filth littered in the area, degradation of materials and unsafe drinking water making the people prone to many type diseases in short and long run. Attempts have also been made to enumerate the causes of floods. The suggestions are given for mitigating the fury of floods and proper management issues related to evacuation and safe places nearby.

Keywords: flood mapping, GIS, Haryana, India, remote sensing, space technology

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Authors: Hina Munir Abbasi

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The current paper examines the relationship and diversification ability of Islamic stock indices /conventional stocks indices and Real Estate Investment Trust (REITs).To represent conditional dependency between stocks and REITs in a more realistic way, new modeling technique, time-varying copula with switching dependence is used. It represents reliance structure more accurately and realistically than a single copula regime as dependence may alter between positive and negative correlation regimes with time. The fluctuating behavior of markets has significant impact on economic variables; especially the downward trend during crisis. Overall addition of Real Estate Investment Trust in stocks portfolio reduces risks and provide better diversification benefit. Results varied depending upon the circumstances of the country. REITs provides better diversification benefits for Islamic Stocks, when both markets are bearish and can provide hedging benefit for conventional stocks portfolio.

Keywords: conventional stocks, real estate investment trust, copula, diversification, risk spillover, safe heaven

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Authors: Neelesh Papineni

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Aim: Piezosurgery is a relatively new technique for osteotomy and osteoplasty that uses ultrasonic vibration. The conventional method of treating periodontal cases are by conventional surgeries. However, in this advancing field the use of motor-driven instruments is being considered less invasive. Out of these motor-driven instruments, piezo-electric device has been introduced to the field of periodontics and oral implantology. This article discusses about the wide range of application of piezo-electric device in periodontology, its advantages over conventional surgical therapies and other motor-driven instruments. Results: Piezo- electric has shown better results in aspect of osteotomy, osteoplasty, implants, and any procedure which includes conserving the bone. Also piezo-electric does not cause any kind of damage to the surrounding soft tissue and eliminates the risk of bone necrosis which is a risk factor in other motor driven instruments. Conclusion: In this era of modern dentistry , a successful periodontal and implant surgery requires a sound osseous support. This review gives a pictorial representation about the wide range of application of piezo-electric device in periodontology.

Keywords: piezo-electric, osteotomy, osteoplasty, implantology

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Authors: Aihong Zhao, Priya Sastry, Mark L Field, Mohamad Bashir, Arvind Singh, David Richens

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Objectives: Intramural haematoma (IMH) is one of the pathologies, along with acute aortic dissection, that present as Acute Aortic Syndrome (AAS). Evidence suggests that unlike aortic dissection, some intramural haematomas may regress with medical management. However, intramural haematomas have been traditionally managed like acute aortic dissections. Given that some of these pathologies may regress with conservative management, it would be useful to be able to identify which of these may not need high risk emergency intervention. A computational aortic model was used in this study to try and identify intramural haematomas with risk of progression to aortic dissection. Methods: We created a computational model of the aorta with luminal blood flow. Reports in the literature have identified 11 mm as the radial clot thickness that is associated with heightened risk of progression of intramural haematoma. Accordingly, haematomas of varying sizes were implanted in the modeled aortic wall to test this hypothesis. The model was exposed to physiological blood flows and the stresses and strains in each layer of the aortic wall were recorded. Results: Size and shape of clot were seen to affect the magnitude of aortic stresses. The greatest stresses and strains were recorded in the intima of the model. When the haematoma exceeded 10 mm in all dimensions, the stress on the intima reached breaking point. Conclusion: Intramural clot size appears to be a contributory factor affecting aortic wall stress. Our computer simulation corroborates clinical evidence in the literature proposing that IMH diameter greater than 11 mm may be predictive of progression. This preliminary report suggests finite element modelling of the aortic wall may be a useful process by which to examine putative variables important in predicting progression or regression of intramural haematoma.

Keywords: intramural haematoma, acute aortic syndrome, finite element analysis,

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