Search results for: coma states and prognosis

Authors: Jiemiao Chen, Shuoxun Xu

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The main goal of our research is to apply the Vine copula measuring dependency between price, temperature, and precipitation indices to calculate a fair crop insurance premium. This research is focused on Worth, Iowa, United States, over the period from 2000 to 2020, where the farmers are dependent on precipitation and average temperature during the growth period of corn. Our proposed insurance considers both the natural risk and the price risk in agricultural production. We first estimate the distributions of crops using parametric methods based on Goodness of Fit tests, and then Vine Copula is applied to model dependence between yield price, crop yield, and weather indices. Once the vine structure and its parameters are determined based on AIC/BIC criteria and forecasting price and yield are obtained from the ARIMA model, we calculate this crop insurance premium using the simulation data generated from the vine copula by the Monte Carlo Simulation method. It is shown that, compared with traditional crop insurance, our proposed insurance is more fair and thus less costly for the farmers and government.

Keywords: vine copula, weather index, crop insurance premium, insurance risk management, Monte Carlo simulation

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Authors: Jude A. Mbanasor, Chigozirim N. Onwusiribe

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The enigma climate change is no longer an illusion but a reality. In the recent years, the Nigeria climate has changed and the changes are shown by the changing patterns of rainfall, the sunshine, increasing level carbon and nitrous emission as well as deforestation. This study analyzed the behavioural response of bee keepers to variations in the climate and the adaptation techniques developed in response to the climate variation. Beekeeping is a viable economic activity for the alleviation of poverty as the products include honey, wax, pollen, propolis, royal jelly, venom, queens, bees and their larvae and are all marketable. The study adopted the multistage sampling technique to select 120 beekeepers from the five states of Southeast Nigeria. Well-structured questionnaires and focus group discussions were adopted to collect the required data. Statistical tools like the Principal component analysis, data envelopment models, graphs, and charts were used for the data analysis. Changing patterns of rainfall and sunshine with the increasing rate of deforestation had a negative effect on the habitat of the bees. The bee keepers have adopted the Kenya Top bar and Langstroth hives and they establish the bee hives on fallow farmland close to the cultivated communal farms with more flowering crops.

Keywords: climate, farmer, response, smart

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Authors: Bailey Houghtaling, Elena Serrano, Vivica Kraak, Samantha Harden, George Davis, Sarah Misyak

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United States (U.S.) Department of Agriculture Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) participants are low-income Americans receiving federal dollars for supplemental food and beverage purchases. Participants use a variety of (traditional/non-traditional) SNAP-authorized stores for household dietary purchases - also representing food access points for all Americans. Importantly consumers' food and beverage purchases from non-traditional store formats tend to be higher in saturated fats, added sugars, and sodium when compared to purchases from traditional (e.g., grocery/supermarket) formats. Overconsumption of energy-dense and low-nutrient food and beverage products contribute to high obesity rates and adverse health outcomes that differ in severity among urban/rural U.S. locations and high/low-income populations. Little is known about the SNAP-authorized food store format landscape nationally, regionally, or by urban-rural status, as traditional formats are currently used as the gold standard in food access research. This research utilized publicly available U.S. databases to fill this large literature gap and to provide insight into modes of food access for vulnerable U.S. populations: (1) SNAP Retailer Locator which provides a list of all authorized food stores in the U.S., and; (2) Rural-Urban Continuum Codes (RUCC) that categorize U.S. counties as urban (RUCC 1-3) or rural (RUCC 4-9). Frequencies were determined for the highest occurring food store formats nationally and within two regionally diverse U.S. states – Virginia in the east and California in the west. Store format codes were assigned (e.g., grocery, drug, convenience, mass merchandiser, supercenter, dollar, club, or other). RUCC was applied to investigate state-level differences in urbanity-rurality regarding prevalent food store formats and Chi Square test of independence was used to determine if food store format distributions significantly (p < 0.05) differed by region or rurality. The resulting research sample that represented highly prevalent SNAP-authorized food stores nationally included 41.25% of all SNAP stores in the U.S. (N=257,839), comprised primarily of convenience formats (31.94%) followed by dollar (25.58%), drug (19.24%), traditional (10.87%), supercenter (6.85%), mass merchandiser (1.62%), non-food store or restaurant (1.81%), and club formats (1.09%). Results also indicated that the distribution of prevalent SNAP-authorized formats significantly differed by state. California had a lower proportion of traditional (9.96%) and a higher proportion of drug (28.92%) formats than Virginia- 11.55% and 19.97%, respectively (p < 0.001). Virginia also had a higher proportion of dollar formats (26.11%) when compared to California (10.64%) (p < 0.001). Significant differences were also observed for rurality variables (p < 0.001). Prominently, rural Virginia had a significantly higher proportion of dollar formats (41.71%) when compared to urban Virginia (21.78%) and rural California (21.21%). Non-traditional SNAP-authorized formats are highly prevalent and significantly differ in distribution by U.S. region and rurality. The largest proportional difference was observed for dollar formats where the least nutritious consumer purchases are documented in the literature. Researchers/practitioners should investigate non-traditional food stores at the local level using these research findings and similar applied methodologies to determine how access to various store formats impact obesity prevalence. For example, dollar stores may be prime targets for interventions to enhance nutritious consumer purchases in rural Virginia while targeting drug formats in California may be more appropriate.

Keywords: food access, food store format, nutrition interventions, SNAP consumers

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Authors: Nor Mazlin Zahari, Lian Gan, Xuerui Mao

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The power production in wind farms and the mechanical loads on the turbines are strongly impacted by the wake of the wind turbine. Thus, there is a need for understanding and modelling the turbine wake dynamic in the wind farm and the layout optimization. Having a good wake model is important in predicting plant performance and understanding fatigue loads. In this paper, the Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD) was applied to the simulation data generated by a Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS) of flow around a turbine, perturbed by upstream inflow noise. This technique is useful in analyzing the wake flow, to predict its future states and to reflect flow dynamics associated with the coherent structures behind wind turbine wake flow. DMD was employed to describe the dynamic of the flow around turbine from the DNS data. Since the DNS data comes with the unstructured meshes and non-uniform grid, the interpolation of each occurring within each element in the data to obtain an evenly spaced mesh was performed before the DMD was applied. DMD analyses were able to tell us characteristics of the travelling waves behind the turbine, e.g. the dominant helical flow structures and the corresponding frequencies. As the result, the dominant frequency will be detected, and the associated spatial structure will be identified. The dynamic mode which represented the coherent structure will be presented.

Keywords: coherent structure, Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS), dominant frequency, Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD)

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Authors: G. V. Novikov, V. S. Sivozhelezov, S. S. Kolesnikov, K. V. Shaitan

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The study reports about the influence of binding of orthosteric ligands as well as point mutations on the conformational dynamics of β-2-adrenoreceptor. Using molecular dynamics simulation we found that there was a little fraction of active states of the receptor in its apo (ligand free) ensemble corresponded to its constitutive activity. Analysis of MD trajectories indicated that such spontaneous activation of the receptor is accompanied by the motion in intracellular part of its alpha-helices. Thus receptor’s constitutive activity directly results from its conformational dynamics. On the other hand the binding of a full agonist resulted in a significant shift of the initial equilibrium towards its active state. Finally, the binding of the inverse agonist stabilized the receptor in its inactive state. It is likely that the binding of inverse agonists might be a universal way of constitutive activity inhibition in vivo. Our results indicate that ligand binding redistribute pre-existing conformational degrees of freedom (in accordance to the Monod-Wyman-Changeux-Model) of the receptor rather than cause induced fit in it. Therefore, the ensemble of biologically relevant receptor conformations is encoded in its spatial structure, and individual conformations from that ensemble might be used by the cell in conformity with the physiological behaviour.

Keywords: seven-transmembrane receptors, constitutive activity, activation, x-ray crystallography, principal component analysis, molecular dynamics simulation

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Authors: Ikediobi Lottanna Samuel

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Days are gone when perpetrators of core international crimes hide under the cloak of sovereignty to go with impunity. The principle of international criminal responsibility is a reality. This move to end impunity for violation of human rights has led to the creation of international and hybrid tribunals, a permanent international criminal court, and increased prosecution of human rights violations in domestic courts. This article examines the attempts by the international community to bring perpetrators of heinous crimes to book. The work reveals the inadequacy of the current international mechanism for prosecuting core international crimes in order to end the culture of impunity and entrench the culture of accountability. It also identifies that ad hoc international criminal tribunals and the international criminal court face similar challenges ranging from lack of cooperation by nation states, non-existence of hierarchy of crimes, lack of effective enforcement mechanism, limited prosecutorial capacity and agenda, difficulty in apprehending suspects, difficulty in blending different legal tradition, absence of a coherent sentencing guideline, distant location of courts, selective indictment, etc. These challenges adversely affect the functioning of these courts. It is suggested that a more helpful way to end impunity would be to have a more robust and synergistic relationship between national, regional, and international approaches to prosecuting core international crimes.

Keywords: prosecution, criminal, international, tribunal, justice, ad hoc

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Authors: Arenca Trashani

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20 years after its first entrance in a General Assembly of the United Nation’s Resolution, human security has became a very important tool in a global debate affecting directly the whole main rules and regulations in international law and more closely in international human rights law. This paper will cover a very important issue of today at how the human security has its impact to the development of international human rights law, not as far as a challenge as it is seen up now but a tool of moving toward development and globalization. In order to analyze the impact of human security to the global agenda, we need to look to the main pillars of the international legal order which are affected by the human security in itself and its application in the policy making for this international legal order global and regional ones. This paper will focus, also, on human security, as a new and very important tool of measuring development, stability and the level of democratic consolidation and the respect for human rights especially in developing countries such as Albania. The states are no longer capable to monopolize the use of human security just within their boundaries and separated from the other principles of a functioning democracy. In this context, human security would be best guaranteed under the respect of the rule of law and democratization. During the last two decades the concept security has broadly developed, from a state-centric to a more human-centric approach: from state security to respect for human rights, to economic security, to environmental security as well. Last but not least we would see that human rights could be affected by human security not just at their promotion but also at their enforcement and mainly at the international institutions, which are entitled to promote and to protect human rights.

Keywords: human security, international human rights law, development, Albania, international law

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Authors: Ashish Soni, Suman Kalyan Pal

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Transition metal dichalcogenides (TMDCs) are an emerging paradigm for the generation of advanced materials which are capable of utilizing in future device applications. In recent years TMDCs have attracted researchers for their unique band structure in monolayers. Large-area monolayers could become the most appropriate candidate for flexible and thin optoelectronic devices. For this purpose, it is crucial to understand the generation and transport of charge carriers in low dimensions. A deep understanding of photo-generated hot charges and trapped charges is essential to improve the performance of optoelectronic devices. Carrier trapping by the defect states that are introduced during the growth process of the monolayer could influence the dynamical behaviour of charge carriers. Herein, we investigated some aspects of the ultrafast evolution of the initially generated hot carriers and trapped charges in large-area monolayer WS₂ by measuring transient absorption at energies above and below the band gap energy. Our excitation density and energy-dependent measurements reveal the trapping of the initially generated charge carrier. Our results could be beneficial for the development of TMDC-based optoelectronic devices.

Keywords: transient absorption, optoelectronics, 2D materials, TMDCs, exciton

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Authors: Hina Kausher, Sangita Srivastava

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In India, there is a lack of standard, systematic sizing approach for producing readymade garments. Garments manufacturing companies use their own created size tables by modifying international sizing charts of ready-made garments. The purpose of this study is to tabulate the anthropometric data which covers the variety of figure proportions in both height and girth. 3,000 data has been collected by an anthropometric survey undertaken over females between the ages of 16 to 80 years from some states of India to produce the sizing system suitable for clothing manufacture and retailing. This data is used for the statistical analysis of body measurements, the formulation of sizing systems and body measurements tables. Factor analysis technique is used to filter the control body dimensions from a large number of variables. Decision tree-based data mining is used to cluster the data. The standard and structured sizing system can facilitate pattern grading and garment production. Moreover, it can exceed buying ratios and upgrade size allocations to retail segments.

Keywords: anthropometric data, data mining, decision tree, garments manufacturing, sizing systems, ready-made garments

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Authors: Santiago Martínez Hernández

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The establishment of the European Union signified the culmination of the supra-national power addressing economic, political, legal and humanitarian matters within and above a national territory. Human rights have taken a protagonist role as one of the pressing concerns that the EU addresses, and one of the most critical problems is that of human trafficking. This multi-billion dollar criminal business represents $31.6 per year made out of 2.5 million trafficked persons worldwide, making it one of the most crucial human rights problems in the world to address. The EU has developed strategies to tackle this issue through supra-national governance, however, how have they fared? What is the impact of its development on the issue? This paper will address the direct and indirect impact of the formation of the European Union as a supranational political and economic entity on the illicit industry of human trafficking in Europe. It attempts to analyse first, the situation of human trafficking in Europe, as an attempt to understand its importance in the region, addressing its root causes and the role of the states addressed. Second, the paper will examine the impact of the EU on human breaking down its policy-making at a supranational level, the role of the economic integration of the region, and the change of migration patterns since its inception.

Keywords: human trafficking, human rights, European union, criminal business

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Authors: Michael Smalenberger

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Intelligent tutoring systems (ITS) are computer-based platforms which can incorporate artificial intelligence to provide step-by-step guidance as students practice problem-solving skills. ITS can replicate the benefits of one-on-one tutoring, foster transactivity in collaborative environments, and lead to substantial learning gains when used to supplement the instruction of a teacher or when used as the sole method of instruction. Developments improving the ease of ITS creation have recently increased their proliferation, leading many K-12 schools and institutions of higher education in the United States to regularly use ITS within classrooms. We investigated how students perceive their experience using an ITS. In this study, 111 undergraduate students used an ITS in a college-level introductory statistics course and were subsequently asked for feedback on their experience. Results show that their perceptions were generally favorable of the ITS, and most would seek to use an ITS both for STEM and non-STEM courses in the future. Along with detailed transaction-level data, this feedback also provides insights on the design of user-friendly interfaces, guidance on accessibility for students with impairments, the sequencing of exercises, students’ expectation of achievement, and comparisons to other tutoring experiences. We discuss how these findings are important for the creation, implementation, and evaluation of ITS as a mode and method of teaching and learning.

Keywords: college statistics course, intelligent tutoring systems, in vivo study, student perceptions of tutoring

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Authors: Aurélie Cassiers

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In this presentation, an overview is given of the freedom of states to legislate concerning abortion. Today, access to safe and legal abortion is still a hot topic in many countries in the world. Abortion policies try to strike a balance between women’s rights to self-determination and private life on the one hand, and the protection of the life of unborn children on the other. Each country has different religious, cultural and political views on abortion, and therefore specific legislations. However, citizens may submit a complaint at international courts when they find their national legislation too restrictive. The study is discussed of the development of the ECtHR, UNCHR, and IACHR case law, regarding the question of the ‘right to abort’ and indirectly of the protection of the unborn children. Each relevant case is analyzed to answer the following questions: Is the unborn child protected, and if so, how? Why does the woman want to abort and how is her interest or right protected? How is a fair balance reached between the different interests? Is the state completely free to write policies that restrict abortion? What are the factors to determine the margin of appreciation of the state? In conclusion, does this specific court recognize a right to abort, and if so, under which conditions? To conclude, this presentation shows that each court has its own perspective on and perception of abortion, and its own criteria to determine whether the state is complying with international norms regarding individual liberty and protection of the children.

Keywords: abortion, international courts, unborn children, women rights

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Authors: Peter J. Glinos

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The Alternative Education Resource Organization (AERO), one of the largest international hubs for alternative educators led by Jerry Mintz, has had a major impact on the global alternative education movement. The organization’s publications, like the AERO-Gramme Newsletter and its successor, the Education Revolution Magazine, allowed members across the globe to discuss issues, share support, and submit writings on policies and reforms. Stored on AERO's online digital archive, this work uses these publications from 1989 to 2011 to investigate the network's entanglements with America, Canada, Russia, Ukraine, Israel, Palestine, Japan, India, and Guatemala. Inspired by Reinhart Koselleck, this historical analysis will trace AERO’s entanglements within the United States, Japan, and Russia, contextualizing each of these multiple temporalities within the history of each nation’s education system, the developments within AERO, and the global geo-political climate at the time of AERO’s expansion. To help remedy the lack of attention paid by global historians to the role state organizations play supporting global networks, as noted in What is Global History? by Sebastian Conrad, this work will focus on the relationship between AERO and state actors.

Keywords: global history, history of education, neoliberalism, transnational history, alternative education

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Authors: S. Nqayi

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Understanding the structural, electronic, and magnetic properties of nanomaterials is essential for developing next-generation electronic and spintronic devices, contributing to the progress of nanoscience and nanotechnology applications. Multiferroic materials, with intimately coupled ferroic-order parameters, are widely considered to breed fascinating physical properties and provide unique opportunities for the development of next-generation devices, like multistate non-volatile memory. In this study, we are set to investigate the structural, electronic, and magnetic properties of the frustrated Feᴵᴵ/Smⱽᴵ sublattice in relation to the widely studied perovskites for spintronics applications. The atomic composition, microstructure, crystallography, magnetization, thermal, and dielectric properties of a pyrochlore Sm₂Fe₂O₇ system synthesized using sol-gel methods are currently being investigated. Precursor powders were dissolved in citric acid monohydrate to obtain a solution. The obtained solution was stirred and heated using a magnetic stirrer to obtain the gel phase. Then, the gel was dried at 200°C to remove water and organic compounds and form an orange powder. The X-ray diffraction analysis confirms that the structure crystallized as a pyrochlore structure with a tetragonal F4mm (107) symmetry. The presence of Fe³⁺/Fe⁴⁺ mixed states is also revealed by XPS analysis.

Keywords: nanostructures, multiferroic materials, pyrochlores, spintronics

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Authors: F. O. Adeosun, I. O. Orubuloye, O. O. Babalola

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Although caesarean section has greatly improved obstetric care throughout the world, in developing countries there is a great aversion to caesarean section. This study was carried out to examine the rate at which pregnant women with pre-eclampsia choose caesarean section over natural birth. A cross-sectional study was conducted among 500 pre-eclampsia antenatal clients seen at the States University Teaching Hospitals in the last one year. The sample selection was purposive. Information on their educational background, beliefs and attitudes were collected. Data analysis was presented using simple percentages. Out of 500 women studied, 38% favored caesarean section while 62% were against it. About 89% of them understood what caesarean section is, 57.3% of those who understood what caesarean section is will still not choose it as an option. Over 85% of the women believed caesarean section is done for medical reasons. If caesarean section is given as an option for childbirth, 38% would go for it, 29% would try religious intervention, 5.5% would not choose it because of fear, while 27.5% would reject it because they believe it is culturally wrong. Majority of respondents (85%) who favored caesarean delivery are aware of the risk attached to choosing virginal birth but go an extra mile in sourcing funds for a caesarean session while over 64% cannot afford the cost of caesarean delivery. It is therefore pertinent to encourage research in prediction methods and prevention of occurrence, since this would assist patients to plan on how to finance treatment.

Keywords: caesarean section, choice, cost, pre eclampsia, prediction methods

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Authors: Jordan Daud, Satriya Wibawa, Wahyu Wardhana

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The US Global War on Terror has had effect on Southeast Asia as Second Front of Global War on Terror. Since 2001, ASEAN had adopted legal framework to counter the terrorist threat through numerous approach which accommodate various counterterrorism policy of the ten member states. ASEAN have also enhanced multilateral cooperation with US and its allies in Asia Pacific region in addressing terrorist threat, terrorist funding, cyber terrorism and other forms of terrorism. This cooperation is essential to maintain international security and stability and also assure economic development. This work focuses on the US-ASEAN counterterrorism cooperation due to they identified terrorism as a mutual enemy that posed to human security, infrastructure security, and national security. Having in mind that international terrorism usually connected with Muslim community, this paper will also elaborate the concept of Jihad and Islam revivalism in politics to avoid negative image of Islam and Muslim. This paper argues that as region with large Muslim community, Southeast Asia still need to tighten counter terrorism cooperation and also lessening Muslim stereotypes with terrorism through educating public understanding and inter-faith and intra-faith dialogue to create a better world.

Keywords: ASEAN, U.S., counter terrorism, Muslim stereotypes

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Authors: Steve Apell

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Transit-oriented development (TOD) is a popular intervention for local governments endeavoring to reduce auto-dependency and the adverse effects of sprawl. At the same time, American households such as the millennial generation, are shifting their residential preferences from the suburbs to the central city. These changes have intensified demand for TOD housing which generates high rents. This leads to displacement of low-income, transit-dependent households by more affluent middle class families. Critics argue that, the effectiveness of TOD might be compromised as newer affluent residents drive more and use transit less. However, there has not been a comprehensive study to test this hypothesis. Using census data ( 1990 – 2012) from six metropolitans areas, this research investigated if block groups within one-mile radius of TOD are gentrifying. Our findings reveal that the price of housing and number of college graduates, increased more in TODs compared to the metropolitan area. Similarly, the percentage of immigrants increased in TOD, while those of blacks and whites declined. Most importantly, TOD residents generally commuted less by car, while transit use increased in some metropolitan areas. TOD in the south of the United States registered higher cost of housing and less transit use. These findings have significant implications for the future of equitable and sustainable transportation policy.

Keywords: commuting, equity, gentrification, mode choice, transit oriented development

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Authors: Aniket Alam, Sravya Gurram

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This paper proposes a categorization of sport that is based on the system of rules that a sport must adhere to. We focus on these systems of rules to examine how a winner is produced in different sports. The rules of a sport dictate the game play and the direction it takes. We propose to break down the game play into events. At this junction, we observe two kinds of events that constitute the game play of a sport –ones that follow sequential logic and ones that do not. Our focus is pertained to sports that are comprised of sequential events. To examine these events further, to understand how a winner emerges, we take the help of finite-state automaton from the theory of computation (Automata theory). We showcase how sequential sports are eligible to be represented as finite state machines. We depict these finite state machines as state diagrams. We examine these state diagrams to observe how a team/player reaches the final states of the sport, with a special focus on one final state –the final state which determines the winner. This exercise has been carried out for the following sports: Hurdles, Track, Shot Put, Long Jump, Bowling, Badminton, Pacman and Weightlifting (Snatch). Based on our observations of how this final state of winning is achieved, we propose a categorization of sports.

Keywords: sport classification, sport modelling, ontology, automata theory

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Authors: Sudip Kumar Kundu, Charu Singh

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The climatic condition over Indian region is highly dependent on monsoon. India receives maximum amount of rainfall during southwest monsoon. Indian economy is highly dependent on agriculture. The presence of flood and drought years influenced the total cultivation system as well as the economy of the country as Indian agricultural systems is still highly dependent on the monsoon rainfall. The present study has been planned to investigate the flood and drought years for the north-west Himalayan region from 1951 to 2014 by using area average Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) rainfall data. For this investigation the Normalized index (NI) has been utilized to find out whether the particular year is drought or flood. The data have been extracted for the north-west Himalayan (NWH) region states namely Uttarakhand (UK), Himachal Pradesh (HP) and Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) to find out the rainy season average rainfall for each year, climatological mean and the standard deviation. After calculation it has been plotted by the diagrams (or graphs) to show the results- some of the years associated with drought years, some are flood years and rest are neutral. The flood and drought years can also relate with the large-scale phenomena El-Nino and La-Lina.

Keywords: IMD, rainfall, normalized index, flood, drought, NWH

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Authors: Paul G. Bolz, Paul G. Lindner, Frohmut Wellner, Christian Schulze, Joern Huebelt

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Concrete, as a result of its use as a construction material, is not only subject to static loads but is also exposed to variables, time-variant, and oscillating stresses. In order to ensure the suitability of construction materials for resisting these cyclic stresses, different test methods are used for the systematic fatiguing of specimens, like the cyclic indirect tensile test. A procedure is presented that allows the estimation of the degradation of cylindrical concrete specimens during the cyclic indirect tensile test by measuring the dynamic modulus of elasticity in different states of the specimens’ fatigue process. Two methods are used in addition to the cyclic indirect tensile test in order to examine the dynamic modulus of elasticity of cylindrical concrete specimens. One of the methods is based on the analysis of eigenfrequencies, whilst the other one uses ultrasonic pulse measurements to estimate the material properties. A comparison between the dynamic moduli obtained using the three methods that operate in different frequency ranges shows good agreement. The concrete specimens’ fatigue process can therefore be monitored effectively and reliably.

Keywords: concrete, cyclic indirect tensile test, degradation, dynamic modulus of elasticity, eigenfrequency, fatigue, natural frequency, ultrasonic, ultrasound, Young’s modulus

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Authors: Sheena K. J., Jyoti Badge, Sayed Mohammed Zeeshan

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A Comparative Study of Exponential and Logistic Population Growth Models in India India is the second most populous city in the world, just behind China, and is going to be in the first place by next year. The Indian population has remarkably at higher rate than the other countries from the past 20 years. There were many scientists and demographers who has formulated various models of population growth in order to study and predict the future population. Some of the models are Fibonacci population growth model, Exponential growth model, Logistic growth model, Lotka-Volterra model, etc. These models have been effective in the past to an extent in predicting the population. However, it is essential to have a detailed comparative study between the population models to come out with a more accurate one. Having said that, this research study helps to analyze and compare the two population models under consideration - exponential and logistic growth models, thereby identifying the most effective one. Using the census data of 2011, the approximate population for 2016 to 2031 are calculated for 20 Indian states using both the models, compared and recorded the data with the actual population. On comparing the results of both models, it is found that logistic population model is more accurate than the exponential model, and using this model, we can predict the future population in a more effective way. This will give an insight to the researchers about the effective models of population and how effective these population models are in predicting the future population.

Keywords: population growth, population models, exponential model, logistic model, fibonacci model, lotka-volterra model, future population prediction, demographers

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Authors: Alexandru Gridan, Georgeta Ionescu, Ovidiu Ionescu, Ramon Jurj, George Sirbu, Mihai Fedorca

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The Brown Bear population size in Romania is approximately 7300-7600 individuals, which is projected to be 3000 individuals over the ecological carrying capacity. The Habitats Directive imposed certain protection rules on European Union (EU) Member States with Brown Bear populations. These however allow countries like Sweden, Croatia, Slovakia, Estonia to hunting as management tool, harvesting up to 10% of the surplus bear population annually. From the point Romania joined the EU to 2016, active conservation management has contributed to maintaining the highest and most genetically diverse Brown Bear population in Europe. Importantly, there has been good coexistence between people and bears and low levels of human-bear conflict. After social pressure and campaigning by some non-governmental organisations citing issues over monitoring, the environment minister decided in September 2016 to stop the use of hunting as a management tool for bears. Against this background, this paper provides a set of recommendations to resolve the current conflict in Romania. These include the need for collaborative decision-making to reduce conflicts between stakeholders and mechanisms to reduce current human-bear conflicts, which have increased by 50 percent in the past year.

Keywords: bear, bear population, bear management, wildlife conflict

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Authors: Carla Ferreira, Helena Barros

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The paper termed “Design of reinforced concrete with Eurocode 2” presents the theory regarding the design of reinforced concrete sections and the development of the tables and abacuses to verify the concrete section to the ultimate limit and service limit states. This paper is a complement of it, showing how to use the previous tools. Different numerical results are shown, proving the capability of the methodology. When a section of a beam is already chosen, the computer program presents the reinforcing steel in many locations along the structure, and it is the engineer´s task to choose the layout available for the construction, considering the maximum regular kind of reinforcing bars. There are many computer programs available for this task, but the interest of the present kind of tools is the fast and easy way of making the design and choose the optimal solution. Another application of these design tools is in the definition of the section dimensions, in a way that when stresses are evaluated, the final design is acceptable. In the design offices, these are considered by the engineers a very quick and useful way of designing reinforced concrete sections, employing variable strength concrete and higher steel classes. Examples of nonlinear analyses and redistribution of the bending moment will be considered, according to the Eurocode 2 recommendations, for sections under bending moment and axial forces. Examples of the evaluation of the service limit state will be presented.

Keywords: design examples, eurocode 2, reinforced concrete, section design

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Authors: Elizabeta Krstić Vukelja

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Digitization of personal data is a consequence of the development of information and communication technologies that create a new work environment with many advantages and challenges, but also potential threats to privacy and personal data protection. Regulation (EU) 2016/679 of the European Parliament and of the Council is becoming a law and obligation that should address the issues of personal data protection and information security. The existence of the Regulation leads to the conclusion that national legislation in the field of virtual environment, protection of the rights of EU citizens and processing of their personal data is insufficiently effective. In the health system, special emphasis is placed on the processing of special categories of personal data, such as health data. The healthcare industry is recognized as a particularly sensitive area in which a large amount of medical data is processed, the digitization of which enables quick access and quick identification of the health insured. The protection of the individual requires quality IT solutions that guarantee the technical protection of personal categories. However, the real problems are the technical and human nature and the spatial limitations of the application of the Regulation. Some conclusions will be drawn by analyzing the implementation of the basic principles of the Regulation on the example of the Croatian health care system and comparing it with similar activities in other EU member states.

Keywords: regulation, healthcare system, personal dana protection, quality data assurance

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Authors: M. M. Akhmediev, J. R. Ashrapov, T. M. Akhmediev

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Hydrocephalus frequently occurs with spina bifida, and up to 80% of such patients need to be shunted. Objective: It’s sought to improve the results of the surgical treatment of hydrocephalus in children with spina bifida. Methods: We have analyzed the results of the surgical treatment of 80 patients aged between 1 month and 1,5-year-old with hydrocephalus and myelomeningocele. All patients underwent surgery in the period of 2013-2018. Results: In all patients, spina bifida was associated with hydrocephalus with a predominant extension of the posterior horns of the lateral ventricles in the form of colpocephaly, Chiari malformation type 2. Based on the method “Choose right shunt” the determination of the point of critical deformation of the ventricular system was established, 47 (58.8%) patients for the 1st stage underwent ventriculoperitoneal (VP) shunt surgery with a low-pressure valve, 28 (35.0%) patients with medium pressure and 5 (6.2%) with high-pressure valve. Under or over drainage complications were not observed in the postoperative period. The 2nd stage of surgery for myelomeningocele repair was planned in 1-2 months with the follow-up head ultrasonography and electromyography study. Conclusion: The implantable shunt systems parameters chosen before surgery in the surgical management of hydrocephalus in children with myelomeningocele are important in the causes of under or over drainage states, cerebrospinal fluid leakage from the myelomeningocele sac. Management of hydrocephalus should be performed by considering myelomeningocele affecting craniospinal compliance.

Keywords: hydrocephalus, spina bifida, myelomeningocele, ventriculoperitoneal (VP) shunt

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Authors: Asadullah I. Qazi, Mansoor Ahsan, Zahir Ashraf, Uzair Ahmad

Abstract:

System identification of an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV), to acquire its mathematical model, is a significant step in the process of aircraft flight automation. The need for reliable mathematical model is an established requirement for autopilot design, flight simulator development, aircraft performance appraisal, analysis of aircraft modifications, preflight testing of prototype aircraft and investigation of fatigue life and stress distribution etc.  This research is aimed at system identification of a fixed wing UAV by means of specifically designed flight experiment. The purposely designed flight maneuvers were performed on the UAV and aircraft states were recorded during these flights. Acquired data were preprocessed for noise filtering and bias removal followed by parameter estimation of longitudinal dynamics transfer functions using MATLAB system identification toolbox. Black box identification based transfer function models, in response to elevator and throttle inputs, were estimated using least square error   technique. The identification results show a high confidence level and goodness of fit between the estimated model and actual aircraft response.

Keywords: fixed wing UAV, system identification, black box modeling, longitudinal dynamics, least square error

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Authors: T. M. Samuel, O. O. Aremu, I. O. Ismaila, L. I. Onu, B. O. Adetifa, S. E. Adegbite, O. O. Olokoshe

Abstract:

The imperative of anthropometry in designing to fit cannot be overemphasized. Of essence is the variability of measurements among population for which data is collected. In this paper anthropometric data were collected for the design of gari-frying facility such that work system would be designed to fit the gari-frying population in the Southwestern states of Nigeria comprising Lagos, Ogun, Oyo, Osun, Ondo, and Ekiti. Twenty-seven body dimensions were measured among 120 gari-frying processors. Statistical analysis was performed using SPSS package to determine the mean, standard deviation, minimum value, maximum value and percentiles (2nd, 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th, 95th, and 98th) of the different anthropometric parameters. One sample t-test was conducted to determine the variation within the population. The 50th percentiles of some of the anthropometric parameters were compared with those from other populations in literature. The correlation between the worker’s age and the body anthropometry was also investigated.The mean weight, height, shoulder height (sitting), eye height (standing) and eye height (sitting) are 63.37 kg, 1.57 m, 0.55 m, 1.45 m, and 0.67 m respectively.Result also shows a high correlation with other populations and a statistically significant difference in variability of data within the population in all the body dimensions measured. With a mean age of 42.36 years, results shows that age will be a wrong indicator for estimating the anthropometry for the population.

Keywords: anthropometry, cassava processing, design to fit, gari-frying, workstation design

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Authors: Mukesh Ranjan

Abstract:

Applying probit model on the micro data of NSS 71st round on education for understanding the access to education post the passage of Right to Education act,2009 in India. The empirical analysis shows that at all India level the mean age of enrollment in school is 5.5 years and drop-out age is around 14 years (or studied up to class 7) and around 60 percent females never get enrolled in any school in their lifetime. Nearly 20 percent children in Bihar never seen school and surprisingly, the relatively developed states like Gujarat, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu have more than one-third of the children and half of the children in Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal and Orissa as educationally wasted. The relative contribution in educational wastage is maximum by Bengal (10 %) while UP contributed a maximum of 30 % in educational non-enrollment in the country. Educational wastage is more likely to increase with age. Marriage is a resistive factor in getting education. Muslims are educationally more deprived than Hindus. Larger family and rich household are less likely to be educationally deprived. Major reasons for drop-out until 9 years were lack of interest in education and financial constraint; between 10-12 years, lack of interest and unable to cope up with studies and post 12 years financial constraint, marriage and other household reasons.

Keywords: probit model, educational wastage, educational non-enrollment, educational deprivation

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Authors: Hao Li, Guy Y. Cornejo Maceda, Yiqing Li, Jianguo Tan, Marek Morzynski, Bernd R. Noack

Abstract:

We propose an automated analysis of the flow control behaviour from an ensemble of control laws and associated time-resolved flow snapshots. The input may be the rich database of machine learning control (MLC) optimizing a feedback law for a cost function in the plant. The proposed methodology provides (1) insights into the control landscape, which maps control laws to performance, including extrema and ridge-lines, (2) a catalogue of representative flow states and their contribution to cost function for investigated control laws and (3) visualization of the dynamics. Key enablers are classification and feature extraction methods of machine learning. The analysis is successfully applied to the stabilization of a mixing layer with sensor-based feedback driving an upstream actuator. The fluctuation energy is reduced by 26%. The control replaces unforced Kelvin-Helmholtz vortices with subsequent vortex pairing by higher-frequency Kelvin-Helmholtz structures of lower energy. These efforts target a human interpretable, fully automated analysis of MLC identifying qualitatively different actuation regimes, distilling corresponding coherent structures, and developing a digital twin of the plant.

Keywords: machine learning control, mixing layer, feedback control, model-free control

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Authors: Muriel Canas-Walker

Abstract:

Polygamy is a sensitive issue yet a surprisingly popular topic on television. In China, among other palace intrigues dramas, "The Legend of Zhen Huan" stands out in its harsh portrayal of sequestered concubines in the Forbidden City. In the United States the critically acclaimed "Big Love", set in the Mormon community, generated much discussion and controversy, both accademically and on social media. More recently "The Handmaid’s Tale", adapted from the famous novel by Canadian writer Margaret Atwood, also contributed to the topic. All three dramas feature the plight of women caught in a polygamy system and are particularly popular with female audiences. Using Foucault’s theory of power, visual anthropology, and feminist perspective this paper aims at analyzing the treatment of this sensitive topic in the media and its reception. From the seemingly happy sister wives in "Big Love", to the fiercely competitive concubines in "The Legend of Zhen Huan" and the tragically coerced handmaids in "The Handmaid’s Tale", the lives of women in a polygamy system are inspiring to modern audiences. This paper’s objective is to understand how the treatment of polygamy is relevant to these audiences.

Keywords: polygamy, michel foucault, feminism, visual anthropology

Procedia PDF Downloads 91