Search results for: sport business model

Authors: Reza Davoodi, Hamid Abbasi, Heidar Norouzi, Gholamabbas Alipourian

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A dynamic model shaping a process of knowledge management (KM) culture change is suggested. It is aimed at providing effective KM of employees for obtaining desired results in an organization. The essential requirements for obtaining KM culture change are determined. The proposed model realizes these requirements. Dynamics of the model are expressed by a change of its parameters. It is adjusted to the dynamic process of KM culture change. Building the model includes elaboration and integration of interconnected components. The “Result” is a central component of the model. This component determines a desired organizational goal and possible directions of its attainment. The “Confront” component engenders constructive confrontation in an organization. For this reason, the employees are prompted toward KM culture change with the purpose of attaining the desired result. The “Assess” component realizes complex assessments of employee proposals by management and peers. The proposals are directed towards attaining the desired result in an organization. The “Reward” component sets the order of assigning rewards to employees based on the assessments of their proposals.

Keywords: knowledge management, organizational culture change, employee, result

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Authors: Thohidul Islam, Md. Hamidul Haque, Robin Kumar Biswas

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Floods are one of the deadliest natural disasters which are very complex to model; however, machine learning is opening the door for more reliable and accurate flood prediction. In this research, a multilayer perceptron neural network (MLP) is developed to model the rainfall-water level relation, in a subtropical monsoon climatic region of the Bangladesh-India border. Our experiments show promising empirical results to forecast the water level for 1 day lead time. Our best performing MLP model achieves 98.7% coefficient of determination with lower model complexity which surpasses previously reported results on similar forecasting problems.

Keywords: flood forecasting, machine learning, multilayer perceptron network, regression

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Authors: Anusha P. Wijesundara, Dulap I. Rathnayake, Nihal D. Perera

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Bathymetric information is fundamental importance to coastal and marine planning and management, nautical navigation, and scientific studies of marine environments. Satellite-derived bathymetry data provide detailed information in areas where conventional sounding data is lacking and conventional surveys are inaccessible. The two empirical approaches of log-linear bathymetric inversion model and non-linear bathymetric inversion model are applied for deriving bathymetry from high-resolution multispectral satellite imagery. This study compares these two approaches by means of geographical error analysis for the site Kankesanturai using WorldView-2 satellite imagery. Based on the Levenberg-Marquardt method calibrated the parameters of non-linear inversion model and the multiple-linear regression model was applied to calibrate the log-linear inversion model. In order to calibrate both models, Single Beam Echo Sounding (SBES) data in this study area were used as reference points. Residuals were calculated as the difference between the derived depth values and the validation echo sounder bathymetry data and the geographical distribution of model residuals was mapped. The spatial autocorrelation was calculated by comparing the performance of the bathymetric models and the results showing the geographic errors for both models. A spatial error model was constructed from the initial bathymetry estimates and the estimates of autocorrelation. This spatial error model is used to generate more reliable estimates of bathymetry by quantifying autocorrelation of model error and incorporating this into an improved regression model. Log-linear model (R²=0.846) performs better than the non- linear model (R²=0.692). Finally, the spatial error models improved bathymetric estimates derived from linear and non-linear models up to R²=0.854 and R²=0.704 respectively. The Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) was calculated for all reference points in various depth ranges. The magnitude of the prediction error increases with depth for both the log-linear and the non-linear inversion models. Overall RMSE for log-linear and the non-linear inversion models were ±1.532 m and ±2.089 m, respectively.

Keywords: log-linear model, multi spectral, residuals, spatial error model

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Authors: Nadish Anand, Richard D. Gould

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A simplistic model is introduced for determining the thermal characteristics of a Low-rise Residential (LRR) building and then predicts the energy usage by its Heating Ventilation & Air Conditioning (HVAC) system according to changes in weather conditions which are reflected in the Ambient Temperature (Outside Air Temperature). The LRR buildings are treated as a simple lump for solving the heat transfer problem and the model is derived using the lumped capacitance model of transient conduction heat transfer from bodies. Since most contemporary HVAC systems have a thermostat control which will have an offset temperature and user defined set point temperatures which define when the HVAC system will switch on and off. The aim is to predict without any error the Body Temperature (i.e. the Inside Air Temperature) which will estimate the switching on and off of the HVAC system. To validate the mathematical model derived from lumped capacitance we have used EnergyPlus simulation engine, which simulates Buildings with considerable accuracy. We have predicted through the low order model the Inside Air Temperature of a single house kept in three different climate zones (Detroit, Raleigh & Austin) and different orientations for summer and winter seasons. The prediction error from the model for the same day as that of model parameter calculation has showed an error of < 10% in winter for almost all the orientations and climate zones. Whereas the prediction error is only <10% for all the orientations in the summer season for climate zone at higher latitudes (Raleigh & Detroit). Possible factors responsible for the large variations are also noted in the work, paving way for future research.

Keywords: building energy, energy consumption, energy+, HVAC, low order model, lumped capacitance

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Authors: Kayvan Khoramipour, Abbas Ali Gaeini, Elham Shirzad, Øyvind Sandbakk

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Basketball has different positions with individual movement profiles, which may influence metabolic demands. Accordingly, the present study aimed to compare the movement and metabolic load between different positions during elite male basketball games. Five main players of 14 teams (n = 70), who participated in the 2017-18 Iranian national basketball leagues, were selected as participants. The players were defined as backcourt (Posts 1-3) and frontcourt (Posts 4-5). Video based time motion analysis (VBTMA) was performed based on players’ individual running and shuffling speed using Dartfish software. Movements were classified into high and low intensity running with and without having the ball, as well as high and low-intensity shuffling and static movements. Mean frequency, duration, and distance were calculated for each class, except for static movements where only frequency was calculated. Saliva samples were collected from each player before and after 40-minute basketball games and analyzed using metabolomics. Principal component analysis (PCA) and Partial least square discriminant analysis (PLSDA) (for metabolomics data) and independent T-tests (for VBTMA) were used as statistical tests. Movement frequency, duration, and distance were higher in backcourt players (all p ≤ 0.05), while static movement frequency did not differ. Saliva samples showed that the levels of Taurine, Succinic acid, Citric acid, Pyruvate, Glycerol, Acetoacetic acid, Acetone, and Hypoxanthine were all higher in backcourt players, whereas Lactate, Alanine, 3-Metyl Histidine, and Methionine were higher in frontcourt players Based on metabolomics, we demonstrate that backcourt and frontcourt players have different metabolic profiles during games, where backcourt players move clearly more during games and therefore rely more on aerobic energy, whereas frontcourt players rely more on anaerobic energy systems in line with less dynamic but more static movement patterns.

Keywords: basketball, metabolomics, saliva, sport loadomics

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Authors: Odirachukwu S. Mwim, Tana Pistorius

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Since the early 1990s political and economic pressures have been mounted on policy and law makers to increase patent protection by raising the protection standards. The perception of the relation between patent protection and development, particularly economic development, has evolved significantly in the past few years. Debate on patent protection in the international arena has been significantly influenced by the perception that there is a strong link between patent protection and economic development. The level of patent protection determines the extent of development that can be achieved. Recently there has been a paradigm shift with a lot of emphasis on extending patent protection to method of doing business generally referred to as Business Method Patenting (BMP). The general perception among international organizations and the private sectors also indicates that there is a strong correlation between BMP protection and economic growth. There are two diametrically opposing views as regards the relation between Intellectual Property (IP) protection and development and innovation. One school of thought promotes the view that IP protection improves economic development through stimulation of innovation and creativity. The other school advances the view that IP protection is unnecessary for stimulation of innovation and creativity and is in fact a hindrance to open access to resources and information required for innovative and creative modalities. Therefore, different theories and policies attach different levels of protection to BMP which have specific implications for economic growth. This study examines the impact of BMP protection on development by focusing on the challenges confronting economic growth in African communities as a result of the new paradigm in patent law. (Africa is used as a single unit in this study but this should not be construed as African homogeneity. Rather, the views advanced in this study are used to address the common challenges facing many communities in Africa). The study reviews (from the point of views of legal philosophers, policy makers and decisions of competent courts) the relevant literature, patent legislation particularly the International Treaty, policies and legal judgments. Findings from this study suggest that over and above the various criticisms levelled against the extreme liberal approach to the recognition of business methods as patentable subject matter, there are other specific implications that are associated with such approach. The most critical implication of extending patent protection to business methods is the locking-up of knowledge which may hamper human development in general and economic development in particular. Locking up knowledge necessary for economic advancement and competitiveness may have a negative effect on economic growth by promoting economic exclusion, particularly in African communities. This study suggests that knowledge of BMP within the African context and the extent of protection linked to it is crucial in achieving a sustainable economic growth in Africa. It also suggests that a balance is struck between the two diametrically opposing views.

Keywords: Africa, business method patenting, economic growth, intellectual property, patent protection

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Authors: Zainab Fadhil Al Toki, Nader Ghareeb

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This study investigates how lightweight a fire resistance door will perform with under types of insulation materials. Data is initially collected from various websites, scientific books and research papers. Results show that different layers of insulation in a single door can perform better than one insulator. Furthermore, insulation materials that are lightweight, high strength and low thermal conductivity are the most preferred for fire-rated doors. Whereas heavy weight, low strength, and high thermal conductivity are least preferred for fire resistance doors. Fire-rated door specifications, theoretical test methodology, structural analysis, and comparison between five different models with diverse layers insulations are presented. Five different door models are being investigated with different insulation materials and arrangements. Model 1 contains an air gap between door layers. Model 2 includes phenolic foam, mild steel and polyurethane. Model 3 includes phenolic foam and glass wool. Model 4 includes polyurethane and glass wool. Model 5 includes only rock wool between the door layers. It is noticed that model 5 is the most efficient model, and its design is simple compared to other models. For this model, numerical calculations are performed to check its efficiency and the results are compared to data from experiments for validation. Good agreement was noticed.

Keywords: fire resistance, insulation, strength, thermal conductivity, lightweight, layers

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Authors: Kolesnik Nadezda A.

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The research aims to elaborate inter-organizational network relationships management model to maximize value co-creation. We propose a network management framework that requires evaluation of network partners with respect to their position and role in network; and elaboration of appropriate relationship development strategy with partners in network. Empirical research and approval is based on the case study method, including structured in-depth interviews with the companies from b2b market.

Keywords: inter-organizational networks, value co-creation, model, B2B market

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Authors: Phanida Phukoetphim, Asaad Y. Shamseldin

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In this study, the novel Stochastic Gradient Boosting (SGB) combination method is addressed for producing daily river flows from four different rain-runoff models of Ohinemuri catchment, New Zealand. The selected rainfall-runoff models are two empirical black-box models: linear perturbation model and linear varying gain factor model, two conceptual models: soil moisture accounting and routing model and Nedbør-Afrstrømnings model. In this study, the simple average combination method and the weighted average combination method were used as a benchmark for comparing the results of the novel SGB combination method. The models and combination results are evaluated using statistical and graphical criteria. Overall results of this study show that the use of combination technique can certainly improve the simulated river flows of four selected models for Ohinemuri catchment, New Zealand. The results also indicate that the novel SGB combination method is capable of accurate prediction when used in a combination method of the simulated river flows in New Zealand.

Keywords: multi-model combination, rainfall-runoff modeling, stochastic gradient boosting, bioinformatics

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Authors: Michele Catalano, Jacopo Di Domenico, Luca Riccetti, Andrea Teglio

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We develop a data-driven agent based model (ABM) for the Italian economy. We calibrate the model for the initial condition and parameters. As a preliminary step, we replicate the Monte-Carlo simulation for the Austrian economy. Then, we evaluate the dynamic properties of the model: the long-run equilibrium and the allocative efficiency in terms of disequilibrium patterns arising in the search and matching process for final goods, capital, intermediate goods, and credit markets. In this perspective, we use a randomized initial condition approach. We perform a robustness analysis perturbing the system for different parameter setups. We explore the empirical properties of the model using a rolling window forecast exercise from 2010 to 2022 to observe the model’s forecasting ability in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. We perform an analysis of the properties of the model with a different number of agents, that is, with different scales of the model compared to the real economy. The model generally displays transient dynamics that properly fit macroeconomic data regarding forecasting ability. We stress the model with a large set of shocks, namely interest policy, fiscal policy, and exogenous factors, such as external foreign demand for export. In this way, we can explore the most exposed sectors of the economy. Finally, we modify the technology mix of the various sectors and, consequently, the underlying input-output sectoral interdependence to stress the economy and observe the long-run projections. In this way, we can include in the model the generation of endogenous crisis due to the implied structural change, technological unemployment, and potential lack of aggregate demand creating the condition for cyclical endogenous crises reproduced in this artificial economy.

Keywords: agent-based models, behavioral macro, macroeconomic forecasting, micro data

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Authors: Nadya Patel, Jawn Lim

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Foresight 3.0 is a synergistic methodology that encompasses systems analysis, future studies, capacity building, and forward planning. These components are interconnected, fostering a collective anticipatory intelligence that promotes societal resilience (Ravetz, 2020). However, traditional applications of these strands can often fall short, leading to missed opportunities and narrow perspectives. Therefore, Foresight 3.0 champions a holistic approach to tackling complex issues, focusing on systemic transformations and power dynamics. Businesses are pivotal in preparing the workforce for an increasingly uncertain and complex world. This necessitates the adoption of innovative tools and methodologies, such as Foresight 3.0, that can better equip young employees to anticipate and navigate future challenges. Firstly, the incorporation of its methodology into workplace training can foster a holistic perspective among employees. This approach encourages employees to think beyond the present and consider wider social, economic, and environmental contexts, thereby enhancing their problem-solving skills and resilience. This paper discusses our research on integrating Foresight 3.0's transformative principles with a newly developed Critical Design Futures (CDF) framework to equip organisations with the ability to innovate for the world's most complex social problems. This approach is grounded in 'collective forward intelligence,' enabling mutual learning, co-innovation, and co-production among a diverse stakeholder community, where business transformation and innovation are achieved.

Keywords: business transformation, innovation, foresight, critical design

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Authors: Khaled Mammar

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This paper presents an application of adaptive neuro-fuzzy controller for PEM fuel cell system. The model proposed for control include a fuel cell stack model, reformer model and DC/AC inverter model. Furthermore, a Fuzzy Logic (FLC) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy controllers are used to control the active power of PEM fuel cell system. The controllers modify the hydrogen flow feedback from the terminal load. The validity of the controller is verified when the fuel cell system model is used in conjunction with the ANFIS controller to predict the response of the active power. Simulation results confirmed the high-performance capability of the neuo-fuzzy to control power generation.

Keywords: fuel cell, PEMFC, modeling, simulation, Fuzzy Logic Controller, FLC, adaptive neuro-fuzzy controller, ANFIS

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Authors: Seyed-Mohammad-Kazem Emami, Behrang Saki, Majid Mohammadian

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The wastewater flow field inside a sewage network including pipe and ‎manhole was investigated using a Computational Fluid Dynamics ‎‎(CFD) model. The numerical model is developed by incorporating a ‎rheological model to calculate the viscosity of wastewater fluid by ‎means of open source toolbox OpenFOAM. The rheological ‎properties of prepared wastewater fluid suspensions are first measured ‎using a BrookField LVDVII Pro+ viscometer with an enhanced UL ‎adapter and then correlated the suitable rheological viscosity model ‎values from the measured rheological properties. The results show the ‎significant effects of rheological characteristics of wastewater fluid on ‎the flow domain of sewer system. Results were compared and ‎discussed with the commonly used Newtonian model to evaluate the ‎differences for velocity profile, pressure and shear stress. ‎

Keywords: Non-Newtonian flows, Wastewater, Numerical simulation, Rheology, Sewage Network

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Authors: Taher M. Abou-deif, Esmail M. El-Bialy, Essam E. Khalil

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The paper is devoted to numerically investigating the influence of the air supply outlets geometry on human comfort inside living looms. A computational fluid dynamics model is developed to examine the air flow characteristics of a room with different supply air diffusers. The work focuses on air flow patterns, thermal behavior in the room with few number of occupants. As an input to the full-scale 3-D room model, a 2-D air supply diffuser model that supplies direction and magnitude of air flow into the room is developed. Air distribution effect on thermal comfort parameters was investigated depending on changing the air supply diffusers type, angles and velocity. Air supply diffusers locations and numbers were also investigated. The pre-processor Gambit is used to create the geometric model with parametric features. Commercially available simulation software “Fluent 6.3” is incorporated to solve the differential equations governing the conservation of mass, three momentum and energy in the processing of air flow distribution. Turbulence effects of the flow are represented by the well-developed two equation turbulence model. In this work, the so-called standard k-ε turbulence model, one of the most widespread turbulence models for industrial applications, was utilized. Basic parameters included in this work are air dry bulb temperature, air velocity, relative humidity and turbulence parameters are used for numerical predictions of indoor air distribution and thermal comfort. The thermal comfort predictions through this work were based on ADPI (Air Diffusion Performance Index),the PMV (Predicted Mean Vote) model and the PPD (Percentage People Dissatisfied) model, the PMV and PPD were estimated using Fanger’s model.

Keywords: thermal comfort, Fanger's model, ADPI, energy effeciency

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Authors: Arian Ebneyamini, Hoda Azimi, Jules Thibaults, F. Handan Tezel

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In this study, a modification of Hennepe model for pervaporation separation of butanol from aqueous solutions using Polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) mixed matrix membranes has been introduced and validated by experimental data. The model was compared to the original Hennepe model and few other models which are applicable for membrane gas separation processes such as Maxwell, Lewis Nielson and Pal. Theoretical modifications for non-ideal interface morphology have been offered to predict the permeability in case of interface void, interface rigidification and pore-blockage. The model was in a good agreement with experimental data.

Keywords: butanol, PDMS, modeling, pervaporation, mixed matrix membranes

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Authors: Fethi Bouksila, Magnus Persson, Ronny Berndtsson, Akissa Bahri

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Under salinity conditions, we evaluate the performance of Hilhost (2000) model to predict pore electrical conductivity ECp from dielectric permittivity and bulk electrical conductivity (ECa) using Time and Frequency Domain Reflectometry sensors (TDR, FDR). Using FDR_WET sensor, RMSE of ECp was 4.15 dS m-1. By replacing the standard soil parameter (K0) in Hilhost model by K0-ECa relationship, the RMSE of ECp decreased to 0.68 dS m-1. WET sensor could give similar accuracy to estimate ECp than TDR if calibrated values of K0 were used instead of standard values in Hilhost model.

Keywords: hilhost model, soil salinity, time domain reflectometry, frequency domain reflectometry, dielectric methods

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Authors: Ashi Gautam, Isha Shukla, Akhil Seghal

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Biosensors are analytical devices that use a biological sensing element to detect and measure a specific chemical substance or biomolecule in a sample. These devices are widely used in various fields, including medical diagnostics, environmental monitoring, and food analysis, due to their high specificity, sensitivity, and selectivity. In this research paper, a machine learning model is proposed for predicting the suitability of skin care products based on biosensor readings. The proposed model takes in features extracted from biosensor readings, such as biomarker concentration, skin hydration level, inflammation presence, sensitivity, and free radicals, and outputs the most appropriate skin care product for an individual. This model is trained on a dataset of biosensor readings and corresponding skin care product information. The model's performance is evaluated using several metrics, including accuracy, precision, recall, and F1 score. The aim of this research is to develop a personalised skin care product recommendation system using biosensor data. By leveraging the power of machine learning, the proposed model can accurately predict the most suitable skin care product for an individual based on their biosensor readings. This is particularly useful in the skin care industry, where personalised recommendations can lead to better outcomes for consumers. The developed model is based on supervised learning, which means that it is trained on a labeled dataset of biosensor readings and corresponding skin care product information. The model uses these labeled data to learn patterns and relationships between the biosensor readings and skin care products. Once trained, the model can predict the most suitable skin care product for an individual based on their biosensor readings. The results of this study show that the proposed machine learning model can accurately predict the most appropriate skin care product for an individual based on their biosensor readings. The evaluation metrics used in this study demonstrate the effectiveness of the model in predicting skin care products. This model has significant potential for practical use in the skin care industry for personalised skin care product recommendations. The proposed machine learning model for predicting the suitability of skin care products based on biosensor readings is a promising development in the skin care industry. The model's ability to accurately predict the most appropriate skin care product for an individual based on their biosensor readings can lead to better outcomes for consumers. Further research can be done to improve the model's accuracy and effectiveness.

Keywords: biosensors, data model, machine learning, skin care

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Authors: Suchitra Sivakumar, Hajime Shingyouchi, Toshinori Okajima, Kyohei Yamaguchi, Jin Kusaka

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The progressing need for powertrain electrification calls for more accurate and reliable simulation models. A battery pack serves as the most vital component for energy storage in an electrified powertrain. Hybrid electric vehicles (HEV) do not behave the same way as they age, and there are several environmental factors that account for the degradation of the battery on a system level. Therefore, in this work, a battery model was proposed to study the state of charge (SOC) variation and the internal dynamic changes that contribute to aging and performance degradation in HEV batteries. An equivalent circuit battery model (ECM) is built using MATLAB Simulink to investigate the output characteristics of the lithium-ion battery. The ECM comprises of circuit elements like a voltage source, a series resistor and a parallel RC network connected in series. A parameter estimation study is conducted on the ECM to study the dependencies of the circuit elements with the state of charge (SOC) and the terminal voltage of the battery. The battery model is extended to simulate the temperature dependence of the individual battery cell and the battery pack with the environment. The temperature dependence model accounts for the heat loss due to internal resistance build up in the battery pack during charging, discharging, and due to atmospheric temperature. The model was validated for a lithium-ion battery pack with an independent drive cycle showing a voltage accuracy of 4% and SOC accuracy of about 2%.

Keywords: battery model, hybrid electric vehicle, lithium-ion battery, thermal model

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Authors: Nataliya Venelinova

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The paper proposes a new interdisciplinary model of reconsidering the role of mass communication effects by coverage of terrorism. The idea of 4P model is based on the synergy, created by the information strategy of threat, predominantly used by terrorist groups, the effects of mediating the symbolic action of the terrorist attacks or the taking of responsibility of any attacks, and the reshaped public perception for security after the attacks being mass communicated. The paper defines the mass communication cycle of terrorism, which leads not only to re-agenda setting of the societies, but also spirally amplifying the effect of propagating fears by over-informing on terrorism attacks. This finally results in the outlining of the so called 4P-model of information terrorism: mass propaganda, panic, paranoia and pandemic.

Keywords: information terrorism, mass communication cycle, public perception, security

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Authors: Hung-Chi Chang

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For an extended EPQ model with random yield, the existent study revealed that both the disaggregating and consolidating shipment policies for the imperfect quality items are independent of holding cost, and recommended a model with economic benefit by comparing the least total cost for each of the three models investigated. To better capture the real situation, we generalize the existent study to include different holding costs for perfect and imperfect quality items. Through analysis, we show that the above shipment policies are dependent on holding costs. Furthermore, we derive a simple decision rule solely based on the thresholds of problem parameters to select a superior model. The results are illustrated analytically and numerically.

Keywords: consolidating shipments, disaggregating shipments, EPQ, imperfect quality, inventory

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Authors: Gezahegn Gizaw

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The FDRE Tourism Training Institute organizes forums for debates, best practices exchange and focus group discussions to forge a sustainable and growing tourism sector while minimizing negative impacts on the environment, communities, and cultures. This study aimed at applying empirical research method to identify and quantify relative importance of success factors and individual engagement indicators that were identified in these forums. Response to the 12-question survey was collected from a total of 437 respondents in academic training institutes (212), business executive and employee (204) and non-academic government offices (21). Overall, capacity building was perceived as the most important driver of success for stakeholder engagement. Business executive and employee category rated capacity building as the most important driver of success (53%), followed by decision-making process (27%) and community participation (20%). Among educators and students, both capacity building and decision-making process were perceived as the most important factors (40% of respondents), whereas community participation was perceived as the most important success factor only by 20% of respondents. Individual engagement score in capacity building, decision-making process and community participation showed highest variability by educational level of participants (variance of 3.4% - 5.2%, p<0.001). Individual engagement score in capacity building was highly correlated to perceived benefit of training on improved efficiency, job security, higher customer satisfaction and self-esteem. On the other hand, individual engagement score in decision making process was highly correlated to its perceived benefit on lowering business costs, improving ability to meet the needs of a target market, job security, self-esteem and more teamwork. The study provides a set of recommendations that help educators, business executives and policy makers to maximize the individual and synergetic effect of training, decision making process on sustainability and growth of the tourism sector in Ethiopia.

Keywords: engagement score, driver of success, capacity building, tourism

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Authors: Ana Julia Acevedo Urquiaga, Jose A. Acevedo Suarez, Ana Julia Urquiaga Rodriguez, Neyfe Sablon Cossio

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Despite the progress made in logistics and supply chains fields, it is unavoidable the development of business models that use efficiently information to facilitate the integrated logistics flows management between partners. Collaborative management is an important tool for materializing the cooperation between companies, as a way to achieve the supply chain efficiency and effectiveness. The first face of this research was a comprehensive analysis of the collaborative planning on the Cuban companies. It is evident that they have difficulties in supply chains planning where production, supplies and replenishment planning are independent tasks, as well as logistics and distribution operations. Large inventories generate serious financial and organizational problems for entities, demanding increasing levels of working capital that cannot be financed. Problems were found in the efficient application of Information and Communication Technology on business management. The general objective of this work is to develop a methodology that allows the deployment of a planning and control system in a coordinated way on the medicine’s logistics system in Cuba. To achieve these objectives, several mechanisms of supply chain coordination, mathematical programming models, and other management techniques were analyzed to meet the requirements of collaborative logistics management in Cuba. One of the findings is the practical and theoretical inadequacies of the studied models to solve the current situation of the Cuban logistics systems management. To contribute to the tactical-operative management of logistics, the Collaborative Logistics Flow Management Model (CLFMM) is proposed as a tool for the balance of cycles, capacities, and inventories, always to meet the final customers’ demands in correspondence with the service level expected by these. The CLFMM has as center the supply chain planning and control system as a unique information system, which acts on the processes network. The development of the model is based on the empirical methods of analysis-synthesis and the study cases. Other finding is the demonstration of the use of a single information system to support the supply chain logistics management, allows determining the deadlines and quantities required in each process. This ensures that medications are always available to patients and there are no faults that put the population's health at risk. The simulation of planning and control with the CLFMM in medicines such as dipyrone and chlordiazepoxide, during 5 months of 2017, permitted to take measures to adjust the logistic flow, eliminate delayed processes and avoid shortages of the medicines studied. As a result, the logistics cycle efficiency can be increased to 91%, the inventory rotation would increase, and this results in a release of financial resources.

Keywords: collaborative management, medicine logistic system, supply chain planning, tactical-operative planning

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Authors: Watchareeporn Chaimongkol

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In this paper, we compare the statistical measures accuracy of composite forecasting model to estimate automobile customer demand in Thailand. A modified simple exponential smoothing and autoregressive integrate moving average (ARIMA) forecasting model is built to estimate customer demand of passenger cars, instead of using information of historical sales data. Our model takes into account special characteristic of the Thai automobile market such as sales promotion, advertising and publicity, petrol price, and interest rate for loan. We evaluate our forecasting model by comparing forecasts with actual data using six accuracy measurements, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), geometric mean absolute error (GMAE), symmetric mean absolute percentage error (sMAPE), mean absolute scaled error (MASE), median relative absolute error (MdRAE), and geometric mean relative absolute error (GMRAE).

Keywords: composite forecasting, simple exponential smoothing model, autoregressive integrate moving average model selection, accuracy measurements

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Authors: Vishal Das, Tianyi Mao, Zhicheng Geng, Carmen Flores, Diego Pelloso, Fang Wang

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Accurate sell-in and sell-out forecasting is a ubiquitous problem in the retail industry. It is an important element of any demand planning activity. As a global food and beverage company, Nestlé has hundreds of products in each geographical location that they operate in. Each product has its sell-in and sell-out time series data, which are forecasted on a weekly and monthly scale for demand and financial planning. To address this challenge, Nestlé Chilein collaboration with Amazon Machine Learning Solutions Labhas developed their in-house solution of using machine learning models for forecasting. Similar products are combined together such that there is one model for each product category. In this way, the models learn from a larger set of data, and there are fewer models to maintain. The solution is scalable to all product categories and is developed to be flexible enough to include any new product or eliminate any existing product in a product category based on requirements. We show how we can use the machine learning development environment on Amazon Web Services (AWS) to explore a set of forecasting models and create business intelligence dashboards that can be used with the existing demand planning tools in Nestlé. We explored recent deep learning networks (DNN), which show promising results for a variety of time series forecasting problems. Specifically, we used a DeepAR autoregressive model that can group similar time series together and provide robust predictions. To further enhance the accuracy of the predictions and include domain-specific knowledge, we designed an ensemble approach using DeepAR and XGBoost regression model. As part of the ensemble approach, we interlinked the sell-out and sell-in information to ensure that a future sell-out influences the current sell-in predictions. Our approach outperforms the benchmark statistical models by more than 50%. The machine learning (ML) pipeline implemented in the cloud is currently being extended for other product categories and is getting adopted by other geomarkets.

Keywords: sell-in and sell-out forecasting, demand planning, DeepAR, retail, ensemble machine learning, time-series

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Authors: Elison Eduardo Jardim Bierhals, Claudineia Brazil, Deivid Pires, Rafael Haag, Elton Gimenez Rossini

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This study evaluated the uncertainties involved in the solar radiation projections generated by the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM) of the Weather and Climate Prediction Center (CPTEC) belonging to Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 5 (CMIP5), with the aim of identifying efficiency in the projections for solar radiation of said model and in this way establish the viability of its use. Two different scenarios elaborated by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were evaluated: RCP 4.5 (with more optimistic contour conditions) and 8.5 (with more pessimistic initial conditions). The method used to verify the accuracy of the present model was the Nash coefficient and the Statistical bias, as it better represents these atmospheric patterns. The BESM showed a tendency to overestimate the data ​​of solar radiation projections in most regions of the state of Rio Grande do Sul and through the validation methods adopted by this study, BESM did not present a satisfactory accuracy.

Keywords: climate changes, projections, solar radiation, uncertainty

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Authors: Aijaz A. Shaikh, Richard Glavee-Geo, Heikki Karjaluoto

Abstract:

Adoption of Information Systems (IS) is receiving increasing attention such that its implications have been closely monitored and studied by the IS management community, industry and professional gatekeepers. Building on previous research regarding the adoption of technology, this paper develops and validates an integrated model of the adoption of mobile banking. The model originates from the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) and the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB). This paper intends to offer a preliminary scrutiny of the antecedents of the adoption of mobile banking services in the context of a developing country. Data was collected from Pakistan. The findings showed that an integrated TAM and TPB model greatly explains the adoption intention of mobile banking; and perceived behavioural control and its antecedents play a significant role in predicting adoption Theoretical and managerial implications of findings are presented and discussed.

Keywords: developing country, mobile banking service adoption, technology acceptance model, theory of planned behavior

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Authors: Mansoureh Naderipour, Susan Bastani, Mohammad Fazel Zarandi

Abstract:

Predicting links that may occur in the future and missing links in social networks is an attractive problem in social network analysis. Granular computing can help us to model the relationships between human-based system and social sciences in this field. In this paper, we present a model based on granular computing approach and Type-2 fuzzy logic to predict links regarding nodes’ activity and the relationship between two nodes. Our model is tested on collaboration networks. It is found that the accuracy of prediction is significantly higher than the Type-1 fuzzy and crisp approach.

Keywords: social network, link prediction, granular computing, type-2 fuzzy sets

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Authors: Giuliano Raimondo, Jörg Wangemann, Peer Drechsel

Abstract:

In systems development involving Fuel Cells generators, it is important to have from an early stage of the project a dynamic model for the electrical behavior of the stack to be shared between involved development parties. It allows independent and early design and tests of fuel cell related power electronic. This paper presents an empirical Fuel Cell system model derived from characterization tests on a real system. Moreover, it is illustrated how the obtained model is used to build and validate a real-time Fuel Cell system emulator which is used for aerospace electrical integration testing activities.

Keywords: fuel cell, modelling, real time emulation, testing

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Authors: Ana Pego

Abstract:

Environmental technologies were developed for decades. Clean technologies emerged a few years ago. In these perspectives, the use of cleantech technologies has become very important due the fact of new era of environmental feats. As such, the market itself has become more competitive, more collaborative towards a better use of clean technologies. This paper shows the importance of clean technologies in offshore energy sector in Portuguese market, its localization and its impact on economy. Clean technologies are directly related with renewable cluster and concomitant with economic and social resource optimization criteria, geographic aspects, climate change and soil features. Cleantech is related with regional development, socio-technical transitions in organisations. There are an economical and social combinations which allow specialisation of regions in activities, higher employment, reduce of energy costs, local knowledge spillover and, business collaboration and competitiveness. The methodology used will be quantitative (IO matrix for Portugal 2013) and qualitative (questionnaires to stakeholders). The mix of both methodologies will confirm whether the use of technologies will allow a positive impact on economic and social variables used on this model. It is expected a positive impact on Portuguese economy both in investment and employment taking in account the localization of offshore renewable activities. This means that the importance of offshore renewable investment in Portugal has a few points which should be pointed out: the increase of specialised employment, localization of specific activities in territory, and increase of value added in certain regions. The conclusion will allow researchers and organisation to compare the Portuguese model to other European regions in order to a better use of natural and human resources.

Keywords: cleantech, economic impact, localisation, territory dynamics

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Authors: V. Rangarajan, Priyanka Kaushal

Abstract:

This study investigates the effectiveness of a typical Earth Air Heat Exchanger (EATHE) for energy efficient space cooling in an urban environment typified by space and soil-related constraints that preclude an optimal design. It involves the development of a three-dimensional numerical transient model that is validated by measurements at a live site in India. It is found that the model accurately predicts the soil temperatures at various depths as well as the EATHE outlet air temperature. The study shows that such an EATHE, even when designed under constraints, does provide effective space cooling especially during the hot months of the year.

Keywords: earth air heat exchanger (EATHE), India, MATLAB, model, simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 311